Phil's Forex Blog

www.fxinvestor.co.uk

2010-04-11T14:42:00.002+01:00

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EUR/USD 5/01/10

2010-01-05T09:34:00.001+00:00

Good Morning here is my setup for EUR/USD lets see what happens

How will EUR/USD Perform in 2010? These 5 Insightful Forecasts Offer Answers

2010-01-03T19:44:00.002+00:00

As 2010 begins, I’ve searched the web for forecasts on the forex market’s most popular pair: EUR/USD. I found 5 insightful forecasts for this pair. Most of them see a stronger dollar in 2010. Here’s the list + a few notes about them. I’d be glad to here more thoughts!

If you have a site / blog with a 2010 forecast for EUR/USD, please link to here so I’l notice it. I’ll be happy to read it and link back, enlarging this initial list of 5 predictions. Let’s start:

Marc Faber: 5-10% rise of dollar against the Euro in 2010. Marc Faber, publisher of a newsletter called “Gloom, Boom and Doom”, is a highly regarded analyst, but he isn’t always correct. In an article in Bloomberg, he says that the bearish betting on the dollar has become too crowded, and that the dollar and the stock markets will continue rallying together, as they did in December 2010 (different than the previous months).
John J. Drummond: Believes that the dollar will reverse its losses and triumph over the Euro. This forex expert gives a few reasons: the financial crisis will still be felt in Europe, Ben Bernanke will raise the rates and more.
Mitul Kotecha: Sees EUR/USD falling through most of 2010. In this article in FXStreet, the known forex expert sees a small rally in Q1 but afterwards, a fall of the Euro is expected. The article contains predictions for other currencies as well.
Eric deCarbonnel: Sees the dollar’s collapse in 2010 due to a colossal food crisis which will devastate the United States. In his apocalyptic scenario, the world will run out of food and this will cause global turmoil which will send the US economy plunging – and the dollar with it.
Greg Group: Advises to buy the dollar and sell the Euro in 2010. He sees continues dependence on the US dollar, especially from China, and isn’t too hopeful about Europe. In an article in Seeking Alpha, he examines both sides of the Atlantic, sees EUR/USD falling, but also advises caution.

What do you think?

Source Forex Crunch

British Pound Outlook- January 4-8 2010

2010-01-03T19:41:00.000+00:00

The Pound enjoyed the thin trading volume to rise. Now we’re back to normal. This week is packed with major British releases, with the rate decision being the most important one. Here’s an outlook for the events that will impact the British Pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD as 2010 begins.

GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

GBP USD 2010 Forecast

At the wake of 2010, Britain is still in recession. The figures are updated only for Q3, but Britain is still far behind other economies. At least the unemployment situation is improving. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

1. Halifax HPI: Publishing time is unknown at the moment. The Halifax Bank of Scotland calculates the prices of homes by its internal mortgage figures, making it these numbers very meaningful. According to Halifax, prices of homes have risen in the past 5 months, usually at a rate higher than 1%. Last month’s rise of 1.4% is expected to be followed by a modest 0.6% rise.
2. Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 9:30 GMT. Britain’s manufacturing sector is expanding, but this is quite fragile according to purchasing managers. Manufacturing PMI is flirting with the 50 point mark that separates contraction and expansion. Last month’s number disappointed with a fall to 51.8 points. It’s predicted to edge up to 52.1 points this time.
3. Net Lending to Individuals: Published on Monday at 9:30 and slightly overshadowed by the PMI release. Also here, the situation is fragile. Credit is expanding in the past 3 months, but the pace of lending growth, which is necessary for the economy’s growth, is stuck. After dropping to 0.3 billion pounds last time, it’s predicted to double to 0.6 billion.
4. Mortgage Approvals: Published on Monday at 9:30 GMT, and will only move the Pound if it’s a big surprise. Other events overshadow it. Although the BBA already published its mortgage numbers, this official release also moves the Pound. 57K mortgages were approved last month, and the number is predicted to tick up to 58K this time.
5. Construction PMI: Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT. The construction sector is important in Britain, where real estate has been an important part of the growth, and also the recession. Purchasing managers are rather pessimistic. This indicator has shown contraction (below 50) since March 2008. This isn’t expected to change now – Last month’s 47 points are expected to be followed by 47.6 this time – an improvement, but still under 50.
6. Nationwide Consumer Confidence: Published on Wednesday at midnight GMT. This survey of 1000 consumers impacts the members of the Bank of England before they make their rate decision. After slow and cautious gains, this indicator is predicted to edge down from 73 to 72 points.
7. Services PMI: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. The British Services sector is doing better than the manufacturing sector. PMI for this sector has been above 50 for 7 straight months, and this trend is predicted to continue, but to calm down. After dropping from 56.9 to 56.6, it’s predicted to rise back to the same score again – 56.9.
8. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. British policymakers aren’t expected to move the interest rate. The Official Bank Rate is predicted to stay at 0.5%, the historic low. Also the Asset Purchase Facility, also known as the Quantitative Easing program, isn’t expected to be extended beyond 200 billion pounds. It could have been larger. So, the first rate decision of 2010 will probably be around the MPC Rate Statement. Mervyn King and his colleagues will lay out expectations for 2010, a year in which Brits elect a new government.
9. PPI: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. PPI Input leaped two months ago by 2.9%, but this was a one-time event. Prices rose by 0.1% last time, and are back to normal. And now, a drop of 0.2% is predicted. PPI Output, which is less important, is expected to rise by 0.2%. This number hasn’t leaped earlier.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD traded in a wide range in the past holiday week, from the lows of 1.5830 to the highs of 1.6230. It closed a positive week at 1.6160.

Immediate support for the Pound is at 1.6110. This is a line that it struggled to break after starting the comeback, but its importance is now smaller, after being broken too many times.

Further below, 1.5720 is a huge support line. This is the bottom border of a wide range that the Pound has been trading in in the past 6 months. It was already successfully tested.

Looking up, 1.6260 served as support line, and is now a resistance line for the Pound. Further above, 1.65 is a round number and another minor resistance line.

Looking higher, I’ve added a resistance line that didn’t appear in last week’s outlook. 1.6746 worked as a resistance line 3 times in past months, although the pair traded above this line twice in this period.

My sentiment is still bearish on the Pound.

There are too many weights on the British recovery, such as the huge deficit. Add the dollar’s strength to that, and you see it going down. I see last week’s rise as insignificant, as it came during thin-volume trading.

Source forex crunch

Update

2009-12-31T00:08:00.002+00:00

Just wanted to say hi and sorry i havent been around. Well we are coming to the end of 2009 so i will start posting my trades again once the new year starts. So my first trading day will be the 4th of Jan so keep and eye out.

See you all soon

EUR/USD and USD/JPY trades

2009-11-23T11:53:00.005+00:00

Hi,

Here is an update on the EUR/USD and my next trade on USD/JPY. My EUR/USD took a nice big profit so that is now closed. Here is a screen shot

Here is my next trade i have to entry points first 1 has been hit now waiting for the second one. My SL my be a little close on the first entry point but we will see. Not sure how far this will drop but i will update you when i close the trade

Blue = Entry Point
Red = Stop Loss
Green = Take Profit

Weekly Update

2009-11-21T10:00:00.003+00:00

Hi Guys,

What can i say about last week well there wasnt much movement my last 2 trades that i posted on here hit there stop loss. But i managed to catch the EUR/USD drop. I also started buying EUR/USD at 1.48008 with a TP of 1.49645.

I also had a good week on Etoro they have a UK trading challange which start at the begining of the week and last for 15 days at the end of this week i am number 1 here is a screen shot

I havent really posted much on my blog this week but next week i shouldnt be as busy so i will post more trades.

GBP/USD USD/JPY trades

2009-11-19T23:29:00.005+00:00

Right guys all went well yesterday so here are my trades for tonight.

This is my GBP/USD i have bought at 1.6647 i have a trailing stop of 250 pips and a TP at 1.67147 so lets see what happens.

See you all in the morning and Happy Pipping

Also here is my USD/JPY trade its dropped close to my SL but hasnt hit it so if you are able to buy then i would do it now.

I have bought at 88.976 with a trailing stop of 250 pips and a TP of 89.66 this one might not do so well but lets see what happens.

GBP/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY

2009-11-18T15:33:00.003+00:00

Hi,

Just a little update

All the trades are doing well GBP/USD is doing the best but EUR/USD and USD/JPY are still heading in the right direction. Just wanted to let everyone know i am still holding my postions i will update this blog on my next move.

Happy Pipping

USD/JPY & GBP/USD update

2009-11-18T12:29:00.003+00:00

Well after leaving the trades on over night there wasnt much going on. Both trades are still on and it looks like we could now see what we are after. Some big news out for USD which will affect both pars.

I have also put a trade on EUR/USD i started selling at 1.4954 if the news is what is expected then we should see some nice profit. USD/JPY has started its trend up i have set my TP at 90.425. If you havent bought USD/JPY then BUY NOW!!! also start SELLING EUR NOW!!!!

1:30pm	USD	Building Permits	0.59M	0.57M
1:30pm	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.2%
1:30pm	USD	CPI m/m	0.2%	0.2%
1:30pm	USD	Housing Starts	0.61M	0.

Market Movers of the Day 18th November

2009-11-18T12:24:00.001+00:00

Market Movers of the Day

Asia-Pacific

RBA meeting minuets

Europe

Swiss adjusted retail sales falling -1.6% YoY

UK Core CPI at 1.8% YoY

UK Retail Sales index falls -0.8% YoY slightly less than consensus

EU trade balance for September strong at €6.8B

Americas

US PPI lower by -1.9% weaker than expected

US Net TIC flows rising to $133.5B

US Industrial production disappointing with a gain of 0.1% MoM

US Capacity utilization at 70.7% rather flat MoM

The Overall Sentiment

Forex

After a rather long period of being under selling pressure the Greenback rebounded across the board largely due to remarks made by the Fed chairman a day before. In what investors consider to be a rather rare occasion the Fed chairman Bernanke commented on the Dollar exchange rate stressing the Fed is alert to the implications of the Dollar’s exchange rate. The Greenback pushed higher a head of the statement only to give back the gains a few minutes later in a rather volatile trade. However a day later as investors were able to spare one more moment of thought to the Chairman’s remarks, counter dollar bets moved to the red across the board with high yielding/commodity currencies retreating the most against. The Euro fell below the 1.49$ level, the Aussie sank below the 93 cents and the Dollar Swiss trade tasted the 1.02 area. The sterling and Yen traded rather flat as the elevated risk aversion supported the Yen and a slightly higher inflation figures in the UK snapped bets debasing(QE) of the sterling will continue by the BoE. The Sterling closed around 1.68$ and the JPY hovered around the 89¥ to the Dollar.

Equities

Wall Street ended the day rather flat as weak industrial production and PPI figures pointed economic weakness in the US. Although the weak data and the Strong Dollar weighed on the US stock market benchmark indexes eventually ended the day in the money. The Dow gained 0.29% and the S&P was up by a modest 1 point. One stock that drew attention was the Oil giant Exxon mobile, Berkshire Heathway the holding company controlled by the investment Guru Warren Buffet disclosed it holds a small number of Exxon Mobile shares, the stock gained close to 1% and closed above 75$.

Commodities

Although the Dollar had a relatively strong Day Commodities held rather well. Gold after reaching a record above 1140$ an ounce retraced a bit but held above 1130$ and silver retreated from 18.5$ but held above the 18$ key level. Oil failed to surge above the 80$ but held above the 79$.

The Day Ahead

In the London session market eyes will be focused on the Bank of England minuets as investors try to extract more on the BoE quantitative easing policy and hence to price the sterling amid weak economic environment on the one hand and sticky inflation on the other.UK industrial data will also gather at least some attention as policy markers seek for the UK industry to recover due to a weaker currency. Later in the day inflation figures from Canada and the US are due with both economies expected to show subdued inflationary pressures especially in the US where the weak Producer price index pointed deflationary pressures are at act rather than inflationary. The concluding data for the day will be the US housing start and building permits with looming worries weak US consumer and high unemployment could hamper the already fragile real estate market, consensus still predicts a rather flat gain MoM but any surprise for the downside could push investors to embrace safe haven bets once again.

Bullish Scenario- A close above 1.035 would signal the pair has broken the flat trend which dominated the pair in recent days and would provide the pair a strong upward momentum.

Target A-1.05

Target B-1.07

Bearish scenario- A break of the 1$ mark would pushed the pair to revisit the all time high around 0.96

Target A- 0.97

Support/Resistance

Currency	Support II	Support I	Spot	Resistance I	Resistance II
EUR/USD	1.4620	1.4815	1.4896	1.5068	1.51
GBP/USD	1.65	1.675	1.6820	1.69	1.71
USD/CHF	0.96	1	1.015	1.0215	1.0350
USD/JPY	88	88.5	89.16	90.5	91.2
USD/CAD	1.038	1.04	1.0523	1.0750	1.0870
AUD/USD	0.92	0.924	0.9298	0.94	0.95
EUR/GBP	0.8705	0.88	0.8855	0.898	0.9064
NZD/USD	0.7302	0.74	0.7453	0.7515	0.76

Daily Events

Time(GMT)	Country	Event
00:00	Australia	Westpac Leading Index (MoM)
00:30	Australia	Wage Price Index
6:00	Japan	Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
09:00	EU	Current Account
09:30	UK	Bank of England Minutes
10:00	EU	Construction Output
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)
12:00	Canada	Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core
12:00	Canada	Consumer Price Index
13:30	US	Building Permits
13:30	US	Consumer Price Index
13:30	US	Housing Starts (YoY)

USD/JPY

2009-11-17T17:00:00.003+00:00

Hi All,

Well USD/JPY is making its move up and GBP/USD is making its way down. So all is going to plan i have included a screen shot of USD/JPY which i am trading on. If you havent bought you will have time.

USD/JPY - GBP/USD

2009-11-17T12:03:00.003+00:00

The Dollar has broken above 89.15 after bouncing at 88.72 low, and the pair has reached a fresh day high at 89.40, before easing to 89.25 level at the moment of writing.

At the moment, the Dollar remains below 89.40/50 resistance area, in case of further appreciation, next resistances might be located at 89.75 (Nov 16 high) and 89.90/00 congestion area).

On the downside, below 89.15, next support level might be at 88.75 (Nov 16 low/session low), and below here, 88.35 (Oct 9 low) and 88.00/25 (Oct 7/Sept 28 low).

I am buying the USD/JPY started buying at 89.293 with a TP at 90.023 lets see how this one goes. Also one to watch is GBP/USD that looks like its going to drop.

2009-11-09T14:53:00.003+00:00

Hi,

USD/JPY is still falling which is good. I have put a sell order on EUR/USD check out below

USD/JPY

2009-11-09T10:00:00.004+00:00

Hi,

EUR/USD didnt go as planned but still made a profit :o) Here is my setup for USD/JPY lets see what happens.

Just a little update TP1 has been hit. Support level has been broken which is good we are now heading towards support level 2 which is at 89.79 if it can break that then we are going to see a drop of at least 200 pips. On the 4H chart we have a downward trend now so i might leave this trade on all week and see if i can follow the trend and make 500 pips or more. Lets see how it goes.

2009-11-08T14:20:00.007+00:00

Hi Guys,

New week of trading is coming up so i have been looking at the charts. We should have some good trades on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

I will be posting my trades on this blog as soon as i take them so keep an eye out. If you want to get instant emails of when i put these trades on then please click follow this blog which is on the right hand side.

If you look at the chart below EUR/USD has taken a retrace backup but has hit some big resistance i think its going to take another dive down because its tried to break it 3 times and failed. I have a sell order at 1.47890 so we will see what happens this week but be aware this could happen.

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2009-11-06T19:52:00.006+00:00

Well its friday and another good day. We had the US non farm payroll and the unemployment news out today so couldnt trade until after 1.30 GMT. Here is my trade TP 1 and TP 2 have been hit,I have put a £12,000 trade on EUR/USD so far the profit is at £10,200.

Total profit for this week is now at £20,060

2009-11-06T15:14:00.001+00:00

Hi,

Here is another trade this is with EUR/JPY took a nice profit £7360 so far in 2 days we have taken a profit of £12000+.

USD/JPY

2009-11-06T15:05:00.002+00:00

Hi Guys,

Here is my trade for USD/JPY.

Take profit 1 hit i closed at take profit 2 with a total profit of £2500