Polikicks - Original Political Analysis

If you will it, it is no dream

noreply@blogger.com (POLIKICKS) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:32:00 +0000

After being deeply disappointed by John the Toast McCain decision to select Palin and by their divisive campaign in which they followed Hillary's steps no less than they followed Rove's, and after alarming weeks in which the polls were too close to call and those that were not were discounted for a feared Bradley effect - after all these America proved that despite all the ugliness, negativity, and pushing the bar to the lowest common denominator, the positive forces of the new generation overcame it all with a historic decision that outshines every dark spot in our history. Perhaps America's common denominator is not that low after all. In a short while the next African American President will be sworn on the steps of our national capital that was build by the blood and sweat of slaves. By the virtue of his election President elect Obama absolves the conscious of white America and unshackles the...

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Time for a break

noreply@blogger.com (P. Ditter) — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 10:40:00 +0000

We got a presumptive nominee for the Republican Party, we got one for the Libertarian Party. We finally got one for the Democratic Party (will someone tell Hillary?) There is no better time for this blog to take a break. If you want to know when we are coming back, subscribe to receive email updates from this blog (no, we don't spam or sell email addresses).

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Watch signs that Hillary does not really concede

noreply@blogger.com (P. Ditter) — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 15:23:00 +0000

By now everyone is well trained on Hillary's careful choice of words. On her non-concession speech on the night that was supposed to be Obama's she congratulated him for "his run", not for his victory. Now her campaign tells us that she will give a concession speech this Friday or Saturday. So what to watch for in her speech? What warning signs will tell us that she does not really concede? The first sign, of course, is avoidance of the words "he won". Those hurtful words she could not bring herself to utter in the basement two floors below ground level of the Baruch College in Manhattan. Talk about bunker mentality. Hillary may actually bring herself, perhaps after drinking some beer she saved from that Pennsylvania bar, to say that Obama won. Will she add that it was fair and square, say nothing about it, or find some scapegoat to tie to his win (Michigan, Florida, the media?) If it were not...

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The five things Hillary want

noreply@blogger.com (POLIKICKS) — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 15:53:00 +0000

Let's go to the core question, the one Hillary herself raised in her non-concession speech on June 3 at Baruch College. Her exact quote was "What does Hillary want? What does she want?" So while many try to analyze what she really want, why not taking her on her own word and looking at how she answered that question? Here is the list of things she offered in response (exact quote from the released speech text): "Well, I want what I have always fought for in this whole campaign. I want to end the war in Iraq. I want to turn this economy around. I want health care for every American. I want every child to live up to his or her God-given potential. And I want the nearly 18 million Americans who voted for me to be respected, to be heard and no longer to be invisible." This is a pretty simple list. If one is a non-Hillary Democrat one might distrust this list and look for an hidden...

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Hillary Clingon and the the Enterprise

noreply@blogger.com (Hugh More) — Fri, 30 May 2008 11:47:00 +0000

Even though I have little interest in science fiction, let alone Star Trek, I heard of the Klingons. When Hillary seemed to cling on to the race beyond reality I had to find out what the Klingons are all about and if they are in any way related to the Clintons. From Wikipedia: "Klingons are a warrior race in the fictional Star Trek universe. They were recurring antagonists in Star Trek: The Original Series". Just race forward (or backward - check your time machine settings) to 2008 where the Clintons appear (again) as a warrior race in the non-fictional Democratic Primary universe. They were recurring Republican antagonists in 1993 and 1997 and are fighting the Obamas in 2008 to lead their own universe as the super antagonists to the McCains. While it is not clear that the Clintons are related to the Klingons, they do exhibit extraordinary clinging on characteristics as well as never-ending fighting...

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Dear Senator Baroque O'bama

noreply@blogger.com (Hugh More) — Wed, 28 May 2008 15:55:00 +0000

Dear Senator Baroque O'bama, I am writing to you because Joe at the Finley's bar said I should get it off my chest. I was thinking to talk to Father O'Malley but he always talks about forgiveness and sin and he just makes me feel guilty. I just can't vote for you because you want change and I want to go back to the good old days just like Hillary said. After the factory closed and all the jobs went away and after Walmart came and the small stores closed there is not much to do here except going to the church, to good old Finley's and some odds and ends that needs fixin. I was always good at fixin things at the factory so I get by and bring home what's left after Joe gives me the break at Finley's. That keeps the woman happy like it should be. Anyway, I never thought I would be saying that, but I am going to vote for that tough woman who was with Clinton may he rest in peace. He was a good Democrat...

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Dear Voter, Help Me. Yours, Hillary

noreply@blogger.com (Hugh More) — Wed, 21 May 2008 17:29:00 +0000

Dear voter. This campaign has been totally unfair but I am not going to give up, never, ever, not today, not tomorrow, not until June 3rd, and not later. I am doing it all for you, not for me, because you need someone to fight for you. Yes, you! I am taking to you. The game has been rigged against me and you. We are in it together. Against the powerful and the rich. You and me. Just look at my odds. Bill took my black constituents, those votes that where rightly mine. Then Obama stole away my college-educated voters. That's OK, what do they know. Then the young and restless succumbed to the cult of change and follow Barack as if what I did in Washington was not exclusively for their future. Then Geraldine Ferraro, sweetie Geraldine, scared away some men, and then Rachel Maddow undermined Geraldine's argument that I am a victim of misogyny. Isn't it obvious that I am both a victim of misogyny and the...

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Obama, McCain and What's Good for Israel

noreply@blogger.com (Per Spective) — Mon, 19 May 2008 15:38:00 +0000

In a Sunday, May 18th NY Times op-ed article that seem to be specifically written to Jewish Americans, Thomas Friedman wrote that "America today has — rightly — a bipartisan approach to Arab-Israeli peace that is not going to change no matter who becomes our next president." The article tries to counter an ongoing smear campaign against Obama that he secretly harbors anti-Israeli agenda. I don't believe in conspiracy theories and secret agendas so I discard such claims quite easily. Top that with Friedman's convincing explanation on how American Presidents and American Jews first priority is and should be America, and the questions and doubts are easily put to rest. But there is an angle to the question of a President that is "good for Israel" that is not fully addressed by Thomas Friedman. That question is "what is good for Israel". Since Israelis themselves have yet to come with a good political answer...

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Hillary's Political Skill or Inability to Decide

noreply@blogger.com (P. Ditter) — Thu, 15 May 2008 16:02:00 +0000

Hillary Clinton vouches to continue until the last primary. However, it is not beyond belief that she will continue well into the convention running an insurgent, disinterested or Obama-supporting campaign.With Hillary you just can't tell. But given the realities, especially after Edwards endorsed Obama, are Hillary's actions or lack thereof telling us something about her Presidency should she somehow be elected? While most pundits speculate about her motives, the reality is that she discounts all the parameters that counts. The total delegate count, the Obama superdelegate advantage, Obama's insurmountable money advantage, Edward's endorsement, and the damage to the party -- all these do not seem to matter to her. Indecision, the pundits tell us, keep her options open. But there is another possibility. It is that in face of uncomfortable realities Hillary is simply incapable of making the hard...

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Hillary three winding roads to the Presidency

noreply@blogger.com (Per Spective) — Tue, 13 May 2008 19:32:00 +0000

Hillary Clinton still has open opportunities to become President, but these require moving along roads that are narrow, winding, unsafe, and each one carries different probabilities of success. Her continued campaign moves her on a path designed to keep her options open. Two of the roads collide with Obama's plans, the third may be aligned with his. Wisely, she will not take a turn prematurely, lest it brings her to a dead end. Conceding to Obama right now, she fears, will do just that. The first road to the White House is one with diminishing chances of success. It is her original Plan A modified to account for Obama's overwhelming lead in every metric - elected delegates, super delegates, total delegates, won states, and popular votes. The narrow road is based on the slim chance that her victories and convictions, some say delusions, may convince the superdelegates to hand her the nomination. While...

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All you need - 11 million Dollars and a dream

noreply@blogger.com (Hugh More) — Mon, 12 May 2008 15:15:00 +0000

There are many things I learned from Hillary Clinton. Reality was not one of them. I never believed in the "all you need is a Dollar and a dream" slogan. I had a dream, I had a buck, and I never won the lottery. But then, I was not in the game either. Was this a necessary ingredient? Nobody told me. Hillary certainly has a dream, she put about $11 million into her campaign, and it seems that she is in the game even though the drawing was completed. Since I gave up playing the lottery a while ago, I wanted to understand her endurance secret. Maybe I can get in the game as well and win something. The chance to win a million was enough to have me spend an hour on the question of Hillary's endurance. At first I thought it was all simple math. If I, against all odds, spent a Dollar to win a million, maybe she is spending eleven million to win $11,000,000,000,000. I know oil prices are going up and I know Bill...

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Hillary's Exit with Grace Ruse

noreply@blogger.com (P. Ditter) — Sat, 10 May 2008 13:18:00 +0000

The writing is on the wall, the money is gone, superdelegate advantage vanished, and Hillary is marching on. "Let her win and exit with grace" some say. Is this a good advice or just more crack for the addicted? True, many experts look at the facts and suggest that Hillary will finally come to grips with the reality and find a graceful exit right after West Virginia. But this is a dangerous advice. Hillary is poised to do well in West Virginia, and a win, no mater how small, would only bolster her position that the tide is shifting her way. Look at what happened in Indiana. She claimed victory and gave a victory speech stating that she is going all the way to the White House. Is there any reason to believe that after winning West Virginia she would behave any different? By reason, of course, I mean a reason that Hillary would accept, something that was not there after Indiana. A West Virginia win would be...

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Super delegates - the time to pick sides is now.

noreply@blogger.com (P. Ditter) — Fri, 09 May 2008 11:23:00 +0000

The vast majority of the super delegates are elected officials. While most of the uncommitted prefer to present a measured "what is good for the party" approach they are no less concerned about their own electability in the upcoming elections. However, after North Carolina and Indiana, continuing to stay on the fence is abdicating their responsibility to the party. They should choose whichever side the prefer and end the Obama-Clinton destruction before the damage to the party it is too large to repair. The number one priority of super delegates is to ensure that the next President is a Democrat. Prolonging the fight is no longer beneficial, especially when the writing is so clear on the wall. The longer Hillary and Obama fight, the better McCain odds are. If undecided superdelgates will make their minds less delegates will remain in the play and chances are that a choice will finally...

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Hillary's Insurmountable Challenge

noreply@blogger.com (POLIKICKS) — Thu, 08 May 2008 16:57:00 +0000

Much has been said of Hillary's insurmountable challenge to gain the nomination of the Democratic party. Fuzzy math, unlikely odds, and other titles were given to her tough predicament. Her dire situation is so bad that many have already declared her campaign dead in its tracks, and others seek some deeper understanding for the reasons she goes on. There are several number games in play. First and foremost is the delegates counts. There are still 261 uncommitted superdelegates and 131 delegates in the remaining primaries so the total grab pot is 392 delegates (assuming that from now on no major defection will occur). Of these 392 delegates Hillary needs 329, or a staggering 84%. Obama needs less than half of these. He can split the remaining pot of state and super delegates and have a clear path to the nomination. The statement that super delegates will decide is only true if they wait to the end,...

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Hillary's Weird Math

noreply@blogger.com (POLIKICKS) — Thu, 08 May 2008 11:57:00 +0000

Delegates math - a picture is worth a one thousand six hundred and eighty six and a half words.

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Yet she continues

noreply@blogger.com (Skip Tick) — Wed, 07 May 2008 13:57:00 +0000

Hillary's thin win in Indiana and major loss in North Carolina should have clinched the nomination for Obama. Mathematically it may have, but Hillary won't concede. Is it, as some say, part of her Plan-B, is it a personality flaw, or is it the money? These are three distinct theories. They all rise from the difficult math Clinton faces - Obama erased whatever popular vote advantage Hillary had in Pennsylvania and increased his delegate lead. With smaller number of delegates in play she faces what seem to be an insurmountable mathematical obstacle. Why is she going on? The first theory is the Plan-b theory. It essentially states that Hillary Clinton knew a while ago that she stands little chance of winning in 2008, but if she continued to pound Obama and give a subtle nod to McCain's experience strength, then Obama will lose to McCain and then she will have another shot in 2012. It is a delicate and...

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Big Day for McCain

noreply@blogger.com (P. Ditter) — Tue, 06 May 2008 14:52:00 +0000

Tuesday May 6th, another big Tuesday for the Democrats is turning out to be an even bigger day for McCain. To the dismay of many Democrats, Tuesday results are not resolving which candidate will win the Democratic nomination. Rather, they will perpetuate the party infighting and convince many that neither candidate can "close the deal". This closing issue is not just a super delegate issue. Not being able to close the deal to the extent that only one candidate stays in the race is also a bad omen for the voters. Many voters may wonder whether a candidate who cannot conclude a primary will be able to bring to successful conclusion other issues in Washington. As repulsive it may sound to Obama supporters, it opens an opportunity to McCain to position himself as a "yes, I can" candidate. The capitulation ritual that so many loosing candidates reluctantly perform on so many election evenings -- that...

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Repulsed into voting Republican

noreply@blogger.com (P. Ditter) — Sat, 03 May 2008 17:02:00 +0000

Hillary's continued attacks on Obama may increase her chances to derail Obama in 2008 as well as increase her rerun chances in 2012. The fear of the Democratic party super delegates that many independent voters would be disgusted with the Democratic party is not her fear. A McCain win in 2008 will still leave open her chances in 2012 (McCain is unlikely to run again) but an Obama win will shut the door to her political aspirations for many years to come. As Charles Blow wrote in his op-ed page on May 3rd, many voters may be "repulsed into voting Republican". As it is and despite Bush failing presidency, national polls show that McCain is doing quite well against Obama and Clinton. Other more granular polls that track each state separately and allocate electors accordingly, show that McCain has a fair chance of winning in November. True, polls can change and Democrats have only now begun to attack...

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A vote for Clinton is a vote for Jeremiah Wright

noreply@blogger.com (Skip Tick) — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 19:19:00 +0000

Jeremiah Wright may look like a God sent gift to Hillary Clinton. His outbursts enrage many Democratic voters who may have considered Obama. Now Hillary tries to grab these voters, hinting right and left that she has always been patriotic, always stood for the weak, the middle class, and whoever feels the pain of the economy. In fact, any pain. But perhaps counter intuitively, the reality is that a vote for Clinton is a vote for Wright. How come? As David Brooks wrote in the New York Times on April 29 on "Demography is King", the real voters demographic divide is between the more educated and the less educated, those who make more and those who make less. Poll after poll, survey after survey, show that Hillary appeals to those who are less educated, and Obama does well among the more educated. It is the education factor that also accounts for the age divide - as we go down in age groups we find that...

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Bill Clinton vs. Reverend Wright

noreply@blogger.com (Hugh More) — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 18:33:00 +0000

I am deeply disappointed by Obama and Clinton. They used to entertain me. Arguments were new, statements seem fresh, and the race seemed real. But now everything seems to be repeated, recycled, and getting boring very fast. I am really concerned that a celebrity sex scandal or some good gruesome murder will quickly focus the media attention elsewhere and the greatest political show on Earth will soon be over. But do not despair, for I have a great new idea to keep the media frenzy going on. What we need is a new debate. I like Hillary's challenge to Obama to debate "Mano a Mano" - no moderators. I am not sure Hillary qualifies as Mano, but that may finally explain Monica Lewinsky. Nevertheless, the idea of a no-rules, no-moderators debate may have some merits. Except that by now I want more entertaining characters than Hillary or Obama. What I want are two out-of-control characters that would fight it out....

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Clinton-Obama: Closed Races Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (Per Spective) — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 21:32:00 +0000

Hillary's win in the closed races of Pennsylvania and Ohio underscores her strength among traditional democrats. Unfortunately for Hillary, that is not how Democrats will win in November -- super delegates main concern. An important point may have been lost with all the discussion about the meaning of the Pennsylvania primaries results. The Pennsylvania Democratic primaries, like the Ohio primaries were closed primaries, namely they were only open for registered Democrats. While they may show an Obama weakness among registered white Democrats, they also underscore his advantage among independents. For all the spinning and the media interest in maintaining the excitement of the race, the reality of Presidential races are that they are decided by the independents. This is where Hillary has a weakness and Obama has a strength. This is a reality stronger than older white voters deciding to stay home if...

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Hillary Clinton's Plan B

noreply@blogger.com (P. Ditter) — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:12:00 +0000

Ever wondered why Hillary is going after Obama in such vicious ways even if it helps McCain? While all pundits talk about her Plan A (the hope that something happen and Obama quits or the super delegates take the victory from him), Hillary is actually working on Plan B. Just before Pennsylvania, commentators and political operatives on all sides were debating Hillary's tenacity in the face of delegate counts. Was she unaware of the close to insurmountable math facing her? Have the ever calculating politician and her seasoned ex-President lost any sense of reality? Is it likely that she could overcome the delegate deficit at this late point in the game?With Pennsylvania not changing the basics by any appreciable measure, one has to wonder what is Hillary's plan and why has it not made public. Surely, if she had a publicly announced plan, she could get more super delegates on her side. The simple answer is...

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President Hillary Clinton Inaugural Speech

noreply@blogger.com (Hugh More) — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 16:24:00 +0000

Ever wondered what would Hillary's inaugural Speech would look like? Reliable source from a parallel universe fast forwarded this to us and asked that you do not go supernova while reading it. President Hillary R. Clinton Inaugural Address January 20, 2009 President Bush, some members of the Supreme Court, distinguished guests and my fellow real American villagers. Today we celebrate the peaceful transfer of authority which is so rare in history, yet common in our country. The greatest authority on Earth passed with a simple oath. I just want to mention that I always get to speak first. As I begin, I want to thank Senator Obama. Would you like another pillow? We will remain the closest of friends, right? No? You should be ashamed of yourself! And I thank President Bush for offering himself and his staff members to stay around and help in the first few days. Did you listen to anything I said? I'm ready...

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The Democrats Dilemma

noreply@blogger.com (Per Spective) — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 21:06:00 +0000

Democrats face a choice between two imperfect candidates. Despite primary campaign hype, neither candidates will be able to accomplish most of their promises. During Presidential election primaries Democratic Presidential surrogates tell voters that this time around the voters have wonderful choices. Choice is the pinnacle of Democracy, so how could choice be bad? Besides, look at Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama - a woman and an African American - inherently representing a change. This change, many claim, is a sign that things will change in Washington as well. Surely the primary voters should be happy about that. Aside from heated competition that sometimes goes overboard and is doing McCain's job for him, everything is good under the sun and tomorrow promises to be even brighter. Not so fast. Are these claims honest? Are the gender or race of the candidate enough of a change or merely a facade? ...

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Hillary, Bitter, Party Splitter

noreply@blogger.com (P. Ditter) — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 15:26:00 +0000

When politicians run for office on the basis of honesty they expect to be hit by opponents and media discovering something inconsistent in their past. Something they said or wrote a while ago. In the political game it matters little if these things were expressed when circumstances were different. "Gotcha" is all that matters in the eyes of the media and hypocrite opponents. To the extend that voters fall prey to these tactics, they deserve what they get. But the biggest danger, pundits will tell you, is being honest in the face of political correctness. Political correctness is by definition a lie, a facade, an inconvenient truth that might offend somebody. When an honest politician, or one with his guard down, removes the veil and tells the inconvenient truth, the real party begins. It is then when the media have their greatest moment, covering both the offending politician, the hypocrite opponents who...

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