Ian Welsh kindly posted a link to my previous post on his blog as a separate post of his own, but rather than come here, most of his commentariat decided to respond over there. Since I promised not to respond directly on this issue on his site, I am going to make a GREAT SACRIFICE and break my promise to forget this moribund joint and respond to some common threads in his comments here, in a new post. (I responded to Paul Lukasiak who kindly commented in the previous thread, and I'll respond to Helena if this post doesn't manage to cover her objections.)
It appears at this point that the Senate bill is likely to pass. For all that it is full of FAIL, I haven't made any secret of the idea that I'm mostly convinced that it is a good thing. The underlying motivation of the table of outcomes in the last post is the sense that, on health care, the US political system is like a highly constipated patient. We want it to poop out the golden brick of a Canadian-style single-payer system, but for many electoral cycles, now, it has been completely unable to poop out anything at all. The reasons for this are the usual: money and media and money-in-media.
Those are big problems, and they are the reason why the bill is so failtastic. But until the surgical suite is ready to fix these problems---a long project---the patient still needs a laxative. The Senate bill has the potential to be that laxative.
With that, here are some of the major classes of objections:
Objection #1: Failure to pass a bill would leave the door open for better bill
I responded to this one in the comments to the previous post. Very briefly, regardless of what Obama wants, failing to pass a bill means that Congress is simply not going to try again any time soon. The official narrative is already ready: no one has done it before, and it's too hard. Clinton failed. The official narrative is part and parcel of the political constipation problem. So, no, failure to pass a bill would mean/have meant that the effort is dead for another electoral cycle or two. There's no evidence to believe that single-payer is going to happen at that point either.
Objection #2: Bad bills never lead to better legislation later on
My first reaction to this idea was a certain amount of incredulity. So I'll farm this one out to Cogitamus, first and foremost.
More importantly, though, American progressives seem not to have learned something that the American right has known for a long time: that apart from actual policy, rhetorical metavictories actually have real, long-term value. For example: even when they can't actually destroy Social Security or other progressive programs and priorities, they can create an overall cultural milieu in which "entitlements" are perceived to eat the future earnings of our descendants.
This bill has the potential to create the perception, once again, that health care reform is both possible and desirable as a matter of conventional wisdom. It may not, but passing no bill doesn't even try.
Objection #3: The public will hate the individual mandate
I can hardly argue that a public-option-less mandate is a great idea for controlling consumer-end costs. This is by far the strongest argument against the Senate bill. But my response is roughly the same. Alright, let's say that it is unpopular. Than the worst-case scenario is that a Republican Congress and President repeals it, leaving the USA back where it was before, roughly. One way or another, if the systemic breakdown of the existing health care arrangement is reaching catastrophic proportions, the only question is time; and this bill could either speed it up or slow it down by a small amount---at worst.
Objection #4: Adopting this bill is a failure to negotiate effectively
This is one of Ian's favorite themes, and it depends on some assumptions, including who the negotiating partner actually is. The negotiating partner is the insurance industry, and what is being negotiated in any health care reform package that might actually be serious is the very existence of a large chunk of that industry if not all of it as we know it. So, they have no incentive to negotiate.
If you doubt that the negotiating partner is the insurance industry, consider the very fact that a public-optionless Senate bill with mandates is likely to pass. With 60 votes. Even with Bernie Sanders (I-VT), regardless of how he really feels.
In conclusion
Progressives from Markos to Jane Hamsher to Ian Welsh have quite well articulated the reasons why the Senate bill is terrible and does not lead in itself to a signficantly improved health care system. This is probably all true. What it does is open a door. The cost to not opening that door at all isn't pretty. Opening that door may not be pretty either. But at least there is a chance of movement. A slim one, but a chance.
One thing I have not so far seen is an account of how and when a better health care system would be instituted for the USA on hypothetical failure of this bill---aside from Objection #1, which I've dealt with. It's really easy to sit around running a creepy drive-by psychoanalysis of Jacob Hacker, and another to explain a political plan given current conditions for accomplishing something via the legislative system. One of these is more fun, I guess.
Otherwise, the best thing to do is to let the bill pass and then claim a rhetorical metavictory---because the meta in all of this is actually important until you have a plan to get yourself to the clean, ideal politics in which good policy is honestly debated.
(To my "regular" "readers": I am writing this blog post in response to multiple brous-haha around the interwebs into which I may have dipped more than just my little tippy-toe on the matter of health care. It was written at the suggestion of ex cob logger Ian Welsh as a substitute for taking my frustrations out on his impudent commentariat. Don't expect this blog to stop going Billmon after this any time soon, especially since the Noo Typepad now suXX0rz. Next time you see me blog, it will be on Wordpress or something non-annoying that does not make my browser cry bitter Javascript tears. But at least thunderpants will be happy that I've satisfied his demand.)
I thought I'd write a long song-and-dance about my opinion on the US health care reform effort, but then I realized that not only would it be highly susceptible to the worst sort of nitpickulation, it would also be better summarized as a table. Well, at this point in time, there are two legislative options: no bill, or a bad bill. Here's my assessment of the relative likelihood of good, bad, and ugly outcomes of both options:
| Long-term outcome likelihood | |||
| Good | Bad | Ugly | |
| No bill | Nonexistent | Reasonable | High |
| Bad bill | Very Low | Reasonable | High |
So, as you can see, I've done the math and I think it's better to pass a bad bill rather than no bill. A bad bill has a chance of defeating at least one pernicious meme: that no Congress or administration can alter US health care delivery systems, which are wholly broken.
I will not get into Nate Silverian attempts at defending anything about the bill as it stands. It's a terrible bill. It is completely bone-headed not to simply expropriate the "health" "insurance" "industry" wholesale and immediately institute a Canuckistani single-payer system. Anything that doesn't lead to this outcome is a lie. However, if I had a dollar for all the political lies and terrible ideas we have to tolerate, I'd be Warren Buffett. Am I Warren Buffett?
Nevertheless, the bill should pass. The only condition under which I would take this statement back is if there is any chance that there are legislators who are willing to scuttle this turkey who also have the wherewithal to bring about a better bill---one that eventually eliminates the desurance industry. Since this has a hellball's chance in snow, it's better for all the other people who think that they'd rather have no bill to fix that problem---that they have no effective progressive representation in Congress, or that they have no leverage either way---than engage in perverse quests to leave the effort with nothing.
Yes, yes, I'll finally get around to cleaning up the spam. In the meantime, enjoy these photos of a rainbow that I recently took. It very rare in my experience to see a complete arc. Unfortunately,the crackberry photo does not really do it justice. It was as though it were from a cartoon, very rare high-quality rainbow.
The following is a post I wrote at Corrente which continues an ongoing bit of flamewar whose context may be a bit mysterious to my usual readership. Corrente's owner decided it was too flamewar-y for the front page his blog, but I meant to say what I meant to say, because it illustrated the point I wanted to make. I believe those with Corrente accounts can still read it, but I intended to put it on the open Internet and here it is. I mean, it has a high snark level, and I can understand why someone may not want to encourage that level on their site.
The overall context is that while I think that Obama was a somewhat bigger campaign risk than Hillary Clinton, I do believe she lost due to a small number of misapprehensions about why the Obama campaign took off the way it did. And that some of these misapprehensions are reflected in the PUMA movement---which I believe to be real, and reflecting a consequential reality---in a different way.
The specific context is a series of posts about the mortgage meltdown which reveals the kinds of poor ideological and political judgement that mars the PUMA movement. However, the owners of the Confluence blog decided to compound the error with a very interesting set of circumlocutions, which I proceed to take down.
Well! You may recall my recent scathing critique of a Confluence post on the mortgage meltdown that I thought was at best buying into tedious old right-wing saws about anti-discriminatory measures. I am flattered to report that, despite her disagreement with me over the admittedly trolly bit at the end, Anglachel has seen fit to cite my post approvingly in one of her own.
Well, this finally provoked the "Conflucian"* response. And it has appeared as a pair of posts by riverdaughter and by dakinikat (who wrote the post I originally objected to). Needless to say, these are awesome circumlocutions from start to finish. For example:
However, it is the case that sometimes reality is reality and people in the news of all races, class, status, color, gender, you name it, do things that make them look bad. This is an unavoidable fact of like. It is also the case that sometimes programs and federal funds that are created for very good purposes are exploited by people who happen to be of all races, class, color, gender, you name it, who *are*, after all, imperfect humans. Greed and bad behavior is not restricted to Republicans. We have seen that some Democrats are quite capable of it.
Amazing. So, astonishingly, all kinds of people are bad. This is what we have discovered. And thus we are invited to ignore the context of what dakinikat actually said in her post. Bad person is bad.
The comments, oh the comments. They could fill and entire blog's worth of deconstruction. Like the blog posts that precede them, they studiously avoid discussing how exactly we got here. For starters.
And as for dakinikat, it is so tempting to quote the "my black friend" she pulls near the end---it would be like shooting a tuna balanced on a wet thimble. Or the appeal to "peer-review" authority, as though peer reviewed journals do not continuously contradict each other even in real science**. But that's not the important bit. The important bit is right at the beginning, where she reasserts the very article that's at issue, the Liebowitz article that buries a very charged set of ideological claims under an ultimately quite irrelevant discussion and analysis of mortgage typology. And she does so not merely apparently oblivious to the objection, but also forgetting why the objection was raised: an claim about the Congressional Black Caucus.
So, as I recall, commenter Valhalla admonished me in the last post that I did not attempt to engage with them. While I felt I had good reason to critique them from Corrente rather than from their comments, I attempted to correct this by posting the following brief but substantive response to dakinikat:
*BOOP*
Dakinikat insists on repeating the Liebowitz business, which I made the very focus of my own post to which Anglachel links. Its entire purpose is to do one of three things, and probably all:
* Discredit the idea that mortgage approval discrimination exists against minorities (while ignoring subsequent evidence and argument to the contrary).
* Blame the foolishness of mortgage lenders on *gasp* an anti-racist policy, when it's been amply shown that this is not the case.
* Blame the allegedly impending economic collapse on mortgage qualification liberalisation, deflecting it from the actual cause, which was allowing these segments of the credit apparatus to be overleveraged.
These three things are interconnected by ideology, and they bear a number of ideological fruits. One of these begins with "r". Oh no!
Yes, it is sharp and critical, and yes, it is somewhat snarky. But, unlike nearly anything else on either Confluence response posts or their comments, it addresses the point being made directly. What Liebowitz is saying is basic and well-known glibertarian cant (which is sometimes popular with economist-types). But it is an ideological claim no matter which way his data actually falls out. Because economics doesn't really tell us half us much as it claims to do, about the facts, but it sometimes gives us a language to talk about ideology.
And I happen to believe that the predictable result of this type of glibertarianism is a racist result. I'm sorry if this hurts anyone's feelings.
However, I am known there as a "crazed Obama-loon", and my substantive response was quite predictably deleted, and quickly. And the moderator decided to respond with:
fuck off mandos.
Oh, woe is me. But: at least Valhalla should now know why I didn't try the first time.
So, the point is not that PUMAs are burning crosses on their front lawns, or aren't perfectly nice people who wouldn't go out of their way to give a brown guy a break, or don't have dark pigmentation themselves. It doesn't even mean they have no legitimate complaint, or that their complaints are entirely motivated by nefarious intent. Far from it. It is merely that the PUMA movement, at least as represented by quite a proportion of Confluence regulars, has allowed defensiveness and anger over Obama campaign strategy to severely blunt their political judgement, even so far as misunderstanding the actual tactic the Obama campaign used. And, for that reason, we should hope beyond hope that this poor judgement is not loudly echoed in the wider political sphere.
*They apparently have a web radio show called "Conflucians Say". Uhm. I really couldn't resist, sorry.
**Economics is dressed-up moral argument at best, well before it is science, and the Liebowitz paper at issue is no exception.
What follows is a comment thread that I think is also interesting in itself, but I'm still working out what/how to refer to things for which I've written a response comment.
I finally put my email address back on. So you can reach ne once again by the same la mancha email you've known and loved. By the way, in case you haven't guessed it, I am no longer in Nouveau Yorque. Still got some leftover pix though. May get around to posting them soon.
A discovery sure to please teh Snagulator.
As you all know by now, I really get around. I was just in Edmonton (Ed-mountain), Alberta, Canada for a couple of days. Just long enough to make an amazing discovery! The origin of moose. Another reason to love Canada.
I have temporarily had to take down the la-mancha email address due to the fact that some spammer is using that address to forge a "From" line. I am receiving all the inevitable bounce requests. Apparently, this is called "backscatter". It will be back up in a few days when hopefully it has blown over. Unfortunately, my real life persona is, at the moment, too busy to set up an alternative address. I'll tell you if he ever does.
On Sunday, I decided that I should take a break from New Yoick City and take a gander at what "Lung Island" had to offer. So naturally, I decided to go to the farthest point possible away from the The Polis, and that is Montauk Point. Anyway, I took quite a large number of photos of this picturesque place on a perfect day, but here I share with you the most important ones: what I ate for dinner at a lovely (and altogether not *too* pricey) seaside fish restaurant. For some reason, I am still not totally comfortable around little bugs, but perfectly happy to devour the succulent broiled flesh of enormous ones. Well, most of the flesh (what appear to be enormous long testes don't taste very good). With melted butter. Lots of it. Mmmmmm. And yes, modulo the ubiquitous (and gross, but ignorable) Old Bay seasoning, those crab cakes were delicious also.
