Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

Reality Check on Presidential Approval Rates

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:26:54 -0500

Putting news of President Obama's approval rate dipping below 50% in perspective, USA Today runs an excellent interactive chart plotting presidential approval rates since 1945.

When comparing various presidents to each other, as of right now, President Obama most closely tracks Ronald Reagan.

Senators to Watch

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:01:49 -0500

With Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) announcing today that he would vote on Saturday night to bring the health care reform bill up for debate, attention turns to four others whose votes may indicate the ultimate success or failure of the bill.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) -- According to Politico, she's already told Reid how she'll vote but she hasn't made her intentions public yet. A new poll shows her vote may be critical to her re-election prospects next year.
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) -- She's voiced opposition to the public option, but Bloomberg notes there was a $100 million addition to the bill to win her support
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) -- We've already documented his threats to block the public option, but he's stated publicly he'll at least vote to bring the bill to the Senate floor.
Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) -- She was the only Republican senator to vote the bill out of the Senate Finance Committee, but she's also voiced opposition to the public option.

The Saturday vote is mostly political theater at this point -- even reluctant Democrats know they must at least bring the bill to the floor for debate -- but it's not clear how each of the four will actually vote.

Burris Admonished by Senate Ethics Panel

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:39:18 -0500

The Senate Ethics Committee publicly admonished Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) for "discrediting himself and the Senate in the way he sought appointment to the seat of now-President Barack Obama," Roll Call reports.

In a public letter of qualified admonition, the committee found that Burris "should have known that you were providing incorrect, inconsistent, misleading or incomplete information to the public, the Senate and those conducting legitimate inquiries into your appointment to the Senate."

Inside Tim Russert's Office

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:10:04 -0500

There's an online version of the Inside Tim Russert's Office exhibit that opens today at the Newseum.

Obama Dips Below 50%

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:54:13 -0500

Earlier this month we noted that Gallup's daily tracking poll showed President Obama's approval rate bouncing around 50% for several months but never actually breaking through that line.

Apparently that streak will end today when Gallup updates its numbers at 1 p.m. ET.

Who wants to bet that Rush Limbaugh takes credit on his radio show today?

Turnout is Key for Democrats Next Year

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:47:14 -0500

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) tells The Hotline that the key to Democratic fortunes in the midterm elections will be mobilizing the voters who showed up for last year's presidential election.

Said Van Hollen: "If you were to see the kind of turnout in the Congressional elections of 2010 that you saw in these off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey, that would spell trouble. But there's no reason to believe that we're going to have that kind of turnout, because voters who came out to support Obama will understand that ... he has a huge stake."

Cuomo Holds Huge Leads for Governor

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:37:56 -0500

A new Marist Poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) has massive leads over both Gov. David Paterson (D) for his party's gubernatorial nomination, 72% to 21%, and against Rick Lazio (R) in the general election, 69% to 24%.

Said pollster Lee Miringoff: "Right now, Andrew Cuomo has a clear path to become governor. If he could fast-forward to next November, I'm sure he would."

Most Americans Want to Cancel Stimulus Funds

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:22:15 -0500

A new Rasmussen survey finds 51% of Americans believe canceling the rest of the economic stimulus money would create more jobs than actually spending it.

Derek Thompson: "That is insane... The idea that canceling the stimulus would create more jobs implies that passing the stimulus has actually killed more jobs than it's created, which is bonkers. Let's say you don't want to consider infrastructure spending or green technology spending or a single job that might have been created in the private sector. If nothing else, the tens of billions we've sent to state budgets have, without question, saved hundreds of thousands of jobs, like teachers, that are supported by state taxes. It's just a very basic fact."

Quote of the Day

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:41:52 -0500

"We'll find out when the votes are taken."

-- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), quoted by The Hill, when asked if he has the 60 votes needed to bring his health care bill up for debate.

First Read: "Realistically, is more being made out of this drama than should be? Does it make political sense for any Democrat to prevent even debate on this bill even for Democrats who may eventually vote against it? To not allow debate would be a slap in the face of the Dem base and no Dem officeholder would do that, would they?"

Where's Holbrooke?

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:29:44 -0500

Interesting observation by Ben Smith: "Ever since cooperating with a big New Yorker article, Richard Holbrooke's profile has been so low at home that he at one point gave an interview to a reporter to deny that he's lying low."

Holbrooke was once seen as the most powerful voice in shaping policy towards Afghanistan. Now, he's nearly invisible.

The Fall of Greg Craig

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:57:07 -0500

A must-read piece in Time shows how the Obama administration's decision to release photographs of suspected terrorists being abused in U.S. custody was part of an "unseen struggle" that ultimately led to Greg Craig's announced departure as White House counsel.

"Interviews with two dozen current and former officials show that Obama's public decision to reverse himself and fight the release of the photographs signaled a behind-the-scenes turning point in his young presidency. Beginning in the first two weeks of May, Obama took harder lines on government secrecy, on the fate of prisoners at Guantánamo Bay and on the prosecution of terrorists worldwide. The President was moving away from some promises he had made during the campaign and toward more moderate positions, some favored by George W. Bush. At the same time, he quietly shifted responsibility for the legal framework for counterterrorism from Craig to political advisers overseen by Emanuel, who was more inclined to strike a balance between left and right."

McCain in Trouble?

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:28:34 -0500

A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in a virtual tie with potential Republican primary challenger J.D. Hayworth (R), who is currently mulling a run.

McCain barely edges Hayworth, 45% to 43%.

Lincoln Faces Tough Race in Arkansas

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:13:41 -0500

A new Zogby poll in Arkansas finds Sen.Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in a tight race for re-election.

In possible match ups, Lincoln barely edges Gilbert Baker (R), 41% to 39%, but beats Kim Hendren (R) handily, 45% to 29%.

Key finding: "But when voters were asked how they would vote in a Lincoln-Baker race if Lincoln voted in favor of the health care legislation, the incumbent Democrat fell behind her possible GOP challenger 37-49. In all, 48% of likely Arkansas voters said they would be less likely to back Lincoln's re-election if she supports the health care bill with 38% saying they were much less likely to support her in that event."

Blame for Economy Slowly Shifting

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:10:14 -0500

A new CNN/Opinion Research survey indicates that 38% of Americans blame Republicans for the country's current economic problems, 27% blame Democrats and 27% blame both parties.

That's down 15 points for Republicans and up 6 points for Democrats since May.

Said pollster Keating Holland: "The bad news for the Democrats is that the number of Americans who hold the GOP exclusively responsible for the recession has been steadily falling by about two to three points per month. At that rate, only a handful of voters will blame the economy on the Republicans by the time next year's midterm elections roll around."

Ensign Accused of Violating Campaign Finance Laws

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:14:27 -0500

In an interview with ABC News, Doug Hampton, the former co-chief of staff to Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) talked about the affair between his former boss and his wife, Cindy Hampton, also a former Ensign employee.

The bombshell: "Hampton told McFadden that the money Ensign's parents paid him in the aftermath of the affair was severance -- not a gift -- as Ensign had claimed, which could constitute a violation of campaign finance laws."

Palin's Book Selling Well

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:16:44 -0500

A HarperCollins insider tells the Daily Beast that Sarah Palin's Going Rogue sold a staggering 300,000 copies on the first day alone.

Hoffman Can't Win

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:09:06 -0500

The NY-23 special election is finally over as Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY) leads Doug Hoffman (C) by 3,105 votes with 3,072 absentee ballots left to be counted, according to the Watertown Daily Times.

The big question: Will Hoffman concede again since he unconceded earlier this week?

Obama Approval Ticks Down

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:04:31 -0500

A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows President Obama's approval rating sinking to a new low of 46% with an equal number now disapproving of the job Obama is doing as President.

In the generic congressional ballot, Republicans lead Democrats, 42% to 39% with 15% undecided.

Giuliani Would Beat Gillibrand

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:40:31 -0500

A new Marist Poll in New York shows that Rudy Giuliani (D) would a formidable challenger to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and now holds a 14 point lead, 54% to 40%.

Key finding: "Even one-third of Democrats report they would back the Republican challenger, and Giuliani runs competitively against Gillibrand in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City."

Reports suggest Giuliani has told confidants that he will likely run for Senate and not Govenor next year.

Update: Giuliani aides now deny he's made a decision to run for Senate.

Democrats Play Defense in House Races

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:03:51 -0500

From the latest Cook Political Report: Democrats are now defending 38 of the 50 most competitive House seats in 2010.

Conyers Blasts Obama for Health Care Strategy

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:56:33 -0500

In a radio interview with Bill Press, Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) ripped into President Obama and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel saying they are caving in to "nutty right-wing" proposals just to get a health care bill passed.

Said Conyers: "I'm getting tired of saving Obama's can in the White House."

Bonus Quote of the Day

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:33:42 -0500

"I don't think about that stuff. I'm just -- I'm being a legislator. After what I went through in 2006, there's nothing much more that anybody [who] disagrees with me can try to do."

-- Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), quoted by Politico, on the prospect of a strong Democratic challenger in 2012 if he blocks health care reform in the Senate.

Giuliani Not Running

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:14:39 -0500

Rudy Giuliani (R) "has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy," the New York Times reports.

"His decision is a blow to many Republican leaders, who had viewed Mr. Giuliani as the strongest potential candidate in a year in which voter anger and anti-Albany sentiment appear to be swelling."

Perhaps Andrew Cuomo's (D) secret chat a few weeks ago convinced him not to make the race.

Update: The New York Daily News says Giuliani will run for the U.S. Senate instead.

Most Republicans Think Obama Stole Election

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:02:16 -0500

A new Public Policy Pollling survey finds that 52% of Republican voters nationally think that ACORN stole the Presidential election for Barack Obama last year, with only 27% granting that he won it legitimately.

Is that just delusional? Probably. But it now makes sense that Doug Hoffman is playing up the ACORN conspiracy theory in the NY-23 special election.

Rubio Surges in Primary Race with Crist

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:01:38 -0500

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Florida shows Marco Rubio (R) surging in his race with Gov. Charlie Crist (R) for the Republican Senate nomination.

Crist now leads Rubio, 47% to 37%. In January, Crist led 57% to 11.