Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

Bonus Quote of the Day

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:58:40 -0500

"I was a severely conservative Republican governor."

-- Mitt Romney, quoted by the Washington Post, attempting to convince a convention of right-wing activists that he's one of them.

Deadlocked Conventions That Never Happened

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 12:29:54 -0500

Steve Kornacki pulls together a nice history of all the brokered conventions that were predicted but never materialized.

"The last time there was true post-primary season suspense on the GOP side was in 1976, when Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan both emerged from the last wave of contests in early June short of the magic delegate number... That was the last truly unpredictable convention that either party has staged. But at various moments in primary campaigns since then, we've heard the kind of deadlocked convention chatter we're now hearing."

Are Romney's Negative Ads Backfiring?

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 11:30:00 -0500

Mitt Romney's reliance on negative messaging to defeat his rivals has been brutally effective so far, but Martha Moore makes the case that voters might eventually start to turn on Romney.

"Now, however, it's not just Romney's rivals who are saying Romney is all negative, all the time. As he trains his sights on Santorum, he faces increasing complaints that his focus on rubbishing his opponents, successfully, is coming at the expense of a compelling message and his own appeal to voters... Negative ads work -- but at a cost... Voters can end up loathing the attacker as much or more as the person being attacked."

Beware of the Delegate Counts

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 11:00:00 -0500

Smart Politics examined the Republican delegate scorecards of eight prominent news outlets and found no two counts were identical.

Santorum Leads in Tennessee

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:50:37 -0500

A new American Research Group poll in Tennessee finds Rick Santorum leading the Republican presidential field with 34%, followed by Mitt Romney at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 16%, and Ron Paul at 13%.

The Tennessee primary is on March 6.

Looks Like There's a New GOP Frontrunner

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:35:55 -0500

Early indications from two polls in the field -- Public Policy Polling and Gallup -- show Rick Santorum either taking over the lead among Republican voters nationally or at least tied with Mitt Romney.

A new Fox News poll also shows Santorum surging and in the last two days the poll was in the field he moved into a dead heat with Romney, 30% to 30%.

Maine Caucuses Get Extra Attention

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:38:04 -0500

On Saturday at around 7:30 pm ET, we'll get the results from Maine's caucuses which have taken place over the last week. It's essentially a battle between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, as Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have made no efforts in the state.

Boston Herald: "Romney still leads the race, but he faces a strong challenge from Paul in Maine, analysts say, and his losses Tuesday in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri will raise the profile of Maine's nonbinding presidential preference poll."

Tom Jensen: "It's generally assumed Mitt Romney will win tomorrow, largely because it's another New England state, but I'm a little skeptical."

Romney Advisers Worried About Shaky Performance

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:35:37 -0500

The Washington Post reports Mitt Romney's advisers are getting nervous after yet another bad week for their candidate.

"One prominent adviser told the candidate to sharpen his use of conservative code words and create 'small pictures' -- vivid imagery, in other words -- to connect with voters. Another flew to Boston to say that Romney's message is too businesslike and broad to capture the passion of angry Republican voters. Still others have gone on television and written opinion columns to hammer home what is becoming a common theme this year: that Romney has not been able to ignite a cause when the GOP is primed to become part of one."

First Read: "So we've gone from advisers taking credit (in the New York Times) for his turnaround in Florida, to now criticizing him (in the Washington Post) after his defeats on Tuesday. Folks, that isn't characteristic of a winning presidential campaign..."

Why the White House Picked a Contraception Fight

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:31:17 -0500

While the White House has taken quite a bit of heat over its decision to mandate that health insurance cover contraception, The Fix notes that this may be a politically useful fight the Obama administration.

"For a White House that has often been accused of trying to undermine Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential race, the contraception debate is perhaps its happiest accident in that quest. After all, while the issue hasn't exactly been fun to deal with for the White House, what better way to help a social conservative like Rick Santorum in his quest to bring down Romney?"

Meanwhile, The Hill reports that the White House will announce a compromise in response to pressure from Catholic groups and Democrats.

Quote of the Day

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:51:49 -0500

"Santorum doesn't even need to run negatives against Romney, which is telling."

-- GOP strategist Alex Castellanos, quoted by The Hill.

Big Money to Gingrich Stops

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:47:44 -0500

Casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and his family don't plan to deliver another big check to a Super PAC backing Newt Gingrich's presidential campaign, Bloomberg reports.

The family has donated a combined $11 million to Gingrich's super-PAC in the past two months, according to interviews and Federal Election Commission records.

The GOP's Death Star

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:21:12 -0500

Peggy Noonan: "Nobody in the conservative base hates Rick. Newt is hated by many and Mitt by some. Mr. Santorum is liked. He has real indignation about what's happened to America, and he brings passion to his ideas about reform. He's got little money, little organization -- there's no broad assumption he can pull it off. And by the time the Romney campaign is done dismantling him, he may have some people who hate him. But this will only underscore the Romney campaign's reputation for destroying, not creating. And nobody loves a Death Star."

Obama's Brush with Political Disaster

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:14:54 -0500

The New Republic runs an excerpt from Noam Scheiber's The Escape Artists which gives an inside account of last year's debt ceiling/deficit struggle.

"For voters contemplating whether he deserves a second term, the question is less and less one of policy or even worldview than of basic disposition. Throughout his political career, Obama has displayed an uncanny knack for responding to existential threats... But, in every case, the adjustments didn't come until the crisis was already at hand. His initial approach was too passive and too accommodating, and he stuck with it far too long."

Bachus Investigated for Insider Trading

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:05:34 -0500

The Office of Congressional Ethics is investigating Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), over possible violations of insider-trading laws, the Washington Post reports.

Bachus, who holds one of the most influential positions in the House chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, "has been a frequent trader on Capitol Hill, buying stock options while overseeing the nation's banking and financial services industries."

"The case is the first of its kind involving a member of Congress. It comes at a time of intense public scrutiny of congressional ethics, with the House passing legislation Thursday to tighten rules against insider trading by lawmakers. The impetus for the legislation, a version of which passed in the Senate a week earlier, came from a 60 Minutes report and a book mentioning Bachus's trades, Throw Them All Out, by Peter Schweizer."

Kennedy Way Ahead for Congress

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:48:11 -0500

A new UMass Lowell/Herald poll shows Joseph Kennedy III (D) trounces Sean Bielat (R) in a general election trial heat by a 60% to 28% margin in a race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA).

"While the 31-year-old Kennedy has a commanding lead now, the race is far from over. The former Middlesex prosecutor has never run for office and has yet to make a single campaign appearance. He's expected to formally announce soon."

Santorum Leads in Pennsylvania

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 17:14:52 -0500

A new Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV poll in Pennsylvania finds Rick Santorum's support has more than doubled in his home state from 14% six weeks ago to 30% putting him just ahead of Mitt Romney.

Santorum leads with 30%, followed by Romney at 29% and Newt Gingrich at 13%. The survey was taken before Santorum's big wins earlier this week.

The Pennsylvania primary isn't until April 24.

Santorum Unloads on Romney

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 15:00:40 -0500

Rick Santorum "launched a full-throated attack on front-runner Mitt Romney" saying he "has been about serially tearing down opponents without offering any kind of vision for what he wants to do for this country," National Journal reports.

He added: "This is the gotcha politics of Mitt Romney. He's not interested in talking about the issues."

Bonus Quote of the Day

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 13:57:58 -0500

"I love the fact that Sheldon put in about $10 million with Gingrich and I put in a lot less with Rick. I like to say I'm an investor and Sheldon is a casino guy."

-- Santorum Super PAC financier Foster Freiss, in an interview on Bloomberg TV, poking fun at Gingrich Super PAC backer Sheldon Adelson.

Could Romney Be Denied the Nomination?

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 13:21:53 -0500

Philip Klein says that it's "conceivable to craft the following general scenario: Romney wins states in the west and northeast, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum combine to dominate the south, Midwest and Appalachia, and Ron Paul siphons off a chunk of delegates. If such a scenario plays out, it's possible to see how Romney could have problems getting over the top, even if analysts are broadly correct that his money and organization give him the edge."

In fact, "if Romney were to win all of the delegates in all of the states that I identified above as solid or lean states, it would only get him to 1,008 delegates, according to the CNN calculator -- still short of the required 1,144."

Shit Mitt Says

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 13:09:22 -0500

A Democratic Super PAC releases a new video, causing BuzzFeed to ask, "Does this mean the meme is really dead?"

Stop Colbert

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:43:42 -0500

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi put out a video urging Americans to rise up against Stephen Colbert to pass a law to get unlimited, secret donations out of politics.

Giffords Aide Will Run in Special Election

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:04:04 -0500

Ron Barber (D), who has served as the district director for former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) and was shot twice in same shooting that wounded the congresswoman, will enter the race to finish out her term, Tucson Weekly reports.

Barber "is thought to be offering himself up as a caretaker for the remainder of Giffords' term," but multiple sources say he will not run in the November election.

However, sources tell First Read that Barber is not necessarily a caretaker, that he's considering running for a full term if he wins the special.

Quote of the Day

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 11:39:43 -0500

"There is not exactly Romney-mania right now."

-- Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), quoted by Politico, point out that Romney must shore up his weaknesses with the GOP base.

House Retirements Slight Plus for Republicans

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 10:08:36 -0500

Kyle Kondik: "Ultimately, the retirements so far have hit Democrats a little bit harder than Republicans; Team Blue is weakened in a handful of districts where the exit of predominately conservative members boosts Republican chances. Republican retirements do also open a few opportunities for Democrats, though those opportunities aren't quite as obvious. So far, the overall effect of these House retirements could help Republicans net a few open seats next November. That could be decisive if there is a very close race for the House, but it's also not a huge, added advantage for the GOP. Nor are those potential gains anywhere near guaranteed."

Three Week Lull

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 09:48:09 -0500

ABC News: "The next big GOP primaries won't come until Feb. 28, when Arizona and Michigan take to the polls, leaving little to talk about in the way of GOP vote results, except drawn out caucuses in the small states of Maine and Wyoming."

Also on the calendar: Republicans will next debate in Arizona on Feb. 22.