Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

Dead Heat in Illinois

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 22:28:39 -0500

A new Tribune/WGN-TV poll in Illinois finds Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R) are "wounded rivals" running neck and neck for the U.S. Senate.

Giannoulias and Kirk both had 34% in the statewide poll of likely voters while another 22% were undecided. But the "softness in support opens the door for third-party candidates to play a spoiler role in the close contest. LeAlan Jones, the Green Party candidate, had 6% and Libertarian Party candidate Mike Labno had 3% in the survey."

Whitman Still Leads in California

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 22:26:20 -0500

A new SurveyUSA poll in California shows Meg Whitman (R) leading Jerry Brown (D) in the race for governor, 47% to 40%.

Compared to an identical poll three weeks ago, Whitman is up three points, while Brown is down three.

Fiorina Just Ahead of Boxer

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 22:22:31 -0500

A new SurveyUSA poll in California shows Carly Fiorina (R) edging Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.

This was the third consecutive poll to show the contest within the margin of error, though, in all 3 cases, challenger Fiorina has been nominally ahead of Boxer.

Quote of the Day

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 13:48:29 -0500

"I already have the votes to be re-elected as Republican leader, and will be re-elected."

-- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), in an interview with ABC News, insisting he will not be challenged for his leadership post next year.

Perriello Headed for Big Defeat

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 12:08:46 -0500

Nearly everyone expected Rep. Tom Perriello's (D-VA) re-election race to be a tough one in the current political environment, but a new SurveyUSA poll shows a total blow out.

Robert Hurt (R) now leads Perriello by a whopping 61% to 35%.

Brewer Panics

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 11:32:19 -0500

Today's must-see video is Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) giving an opening statement in last night's gubernatorial debate. Be warned: It's very painful.

Ben Smith notes it "reflects either an amazing lack of preparation, or sheer panic."

Brad Phillips: "In fairness, it's not unusual for people to go blank when the camera's red light comes on. Stress triggers our body's fight or flight instinct, resulting in an adrenaline surge that makes clear thinking difficult. But Gov. Brewer doesn't deserve that much fairness here, as her communications failure signals a lack of preparation."

Brutal Interview Doesn't Help O'Donnell

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 11:17:46 -0500

While some wonder if Rep. Mike Castle's (R) U.S. Senate bid in Delaware is in jeopardy from Tea Party favorite Christine O'Donnell (R), a radio interview she did with WGMD's Dan Gaffney will likely make the Castle campaign breathe easier.

The Hotline: "The 20+ minute interview is worth listening to. Gaffney takes O'Donnell to task for statements that she won two counties when she ran for Senate in '08 against Joe Biden. He also presses her over a recent scuffle between a member of her staff and a GOP video tracker. At one point, Gaffney actually mutes O'Donnell's microphone to get a word in and says O'Donnell is trying to filibuster his questions."

Portman Leads for U.S. Senate in Ohio

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 11:09:16 -0500

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio shows Rob Portman (R) has taken a seven point lead among likely voters over Lee Fisher (D) in the race for U.S. Senate, 45% to 38%.

"Things aren't looking great for Fisher now but there's a definite path to victory for him: Get the undecided Democrats to come home and reduce the enthusiasm gap by getting his party's voters more interested in the election. Easier said than done, but more than some Democratic candidates can hang their hats on."

Inside the Auto Industry Bailout

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 11:05:23 -0500

This should be good: Overhaul: An Insider's Account of the Obama Administration's Emergency Rescue of the Auto Industry by former "car czar" Steven Rattner.

The Huffington Post notes Rattner "pulls no punches when it comes to describing the foibles of such heavyweights as Rahm Emanuel, Tim Geithner, Larry Summers and Sheila Bair. Though the 58-year-old financier lasted only six months, with his sudden resignation sparking speculation that a pay-for-play scandal at his old private equity firm was becoming an unhealthy distraction, Rattner has plenty of tales to tell. And Rattner's account is sure to attract interest within the Beltway, as one of the first books penned by an Obama administration insider."

Chiles Backs Sink in Florida

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 11:01:30 -0500

As we highlighted earlier, Bud Chiles (I) dropped out of the race for Florida governor and will endorse Alex Sink (D), the St. Petersburg Times reports.

First Read: "This has the potential of helping Sink, given that there was concern that Chiles -- with his familiar last name to Florida Democrats -- could take votes away from her in her race against Rick Scott."

A new Rasmussen survey shows Rick Scott (R) just edging Sink, 45% to 44%.

Crist Internal Poll Shows Tight Race

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 10:55:55 -0500

An internal poll conducted for Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) campaign shows the U.S. Senate race a two way battle, with Crist at 35%, Marco Rubio at 34% and Rep. Kendrick Meek at 17%.

Crist is currently splitting the Democratic vote with Meek, while Rubio is overwhelmingly preferred by Republicans.

How Obama Became Unpopular

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 10:52:23 -0500

Time: "The public is rightly frustrated and angry with the economy. There is no small tactical shift we could have made at any point that would have solved that problem. A sense of disappointment, bordering on betrayal, has been rising across the country, especially in moderate states like Indiana where people now openly say that they didn't quite understand the President they voted for in 2008. The fear most often heard is that Obama is taking the country somewhere they don't want to go."

Schundler Says Christie "Defamed" Him

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 08:35:52 -0500

In another salvo of who said what following New Jersey's failed Race to the Top application, former education commissioner Bret Schundler "released a chronology of the events he believes led to his firing, saying that he is not a liar as the governor has claimed," the Newark Star Ledger reports.

"Schundler says he accepts the governor's right to fire commissioners with or without cause and he accepts responsibility for editing the error that contributed to New Jersey's loss in the $400 million grant."

Said Schundler: "I could accept being fired for that. But I will not accept being defamed by the Governor for something he knows I did not do. The Governor called me a liar this week. That was the last straw. I have no choice now but to defend my name through this chronology of facts and the attached evidence."

Another Distraction for Colorado Republicans

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 08:26:57 -0500

More problems for Colorado gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes (R): The AP reports his "murky past in law enforcement in neighboring Kansas has become the latest distraction in his gaffe-ridden campaign."

Maes has claimed he was fired by a local police department in the 1980s because police and politicians were corrupt, and he told supporters that he worked undercover for state investigators gathering information on a local bookmaking ring. But there's no proof it ever happened.

Meanwhile, the Denver Post reports former Sen. Hank Brown (R-CO) has withdrawn his endorsement of Maes and the Colorado Statesman says pressure is mounting on Maes to step aside so the GOP can appoint a replacement candidate.

Lobbyist-in-Chief

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 07:51:54 -0500

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) addressed how he'll handle the question of his prior profession of lobbying if he decides to run for president in 2012, according to GOP 12.

Said Barbour: "And if I decide to run for President, I won't know what the answer is, either. But I will know this: if I run for President, what you see is what you get, and I am from Mississippi, I do have a southern accent. I was a lobbyist and a pretty damned good one. And I'm very proud -- we were talking before the show came on -- I am happy about my life. I've got a great marriage. I've got great family, and I've had a great career. Wouldn't do anything differently."

"And I will tell you this -- the next President of the United States on January 21, 2013 - - is going to start lobbying. He's going to be lobbying Congress, he's going to be lobbying other countries. He's going to be lobbying the business community. He's going to be lobbying the labor unions, the governors, because that's what Presidents do, and I feel like it's an advantage for me to have the chance to do that."

New Forecast Sees Big Republican Wave

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:00:00 -0500

The new midterm election forecast from Larry Sabato shows an electoral tidal wave forming as "conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer."

"Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net... This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot... If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today."

"In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover."

"The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans' 2010 victory. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net +6 governorships. We now believe they will win +8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country."

In summary: Republicans are projected to pick up 47 seats in the House, 8-9 seats in the Senate and 8 governorships.

Lazio Holds Edge in New York Primary

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 05:29:19 -0500

A new Quinnipiac poll in New York finds Rick Lazio (R) leading Carl Paladino (R) in the Republican gubernatorial primary, 47% to 35%. However, Paladino's support looks a little stronger as 62% of his voters say their mind is made up, compared to 42% of Lazio backers.

Said pollster Maurice Carroll: "With many of his supporters open to changing their minds, Rick Lazio has a shaky lead. The people who like Carl Paladino are more likely than Lazio's voters to have made up their minds to stick with him. But an awful lot of voters don't know much about him. Can he convince enough voters that he's the Republican to run against Andrew Cuomo with a big TV blitz in the next two weeks? We'll have to wait and see."

Blair on Clinton

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:15:00 -0500

In his new memoir, A Journey: My Political Life, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair tries to explain Bill Clinton's scandalous relationship with Monica Lewinsky as behavior that "arose in part from his inordinate interest in and curiosity about people."

He adds: "In respect of men, it was expressed in friendship; in respect of women, there was potentially a sexual element. And in that, I doubt he is much different from most of the male population."

Blair goes on to describe Clinton as a "political soulmate" and "the most formidable politician I had ever encountered."

Wyden Seeks Health Care Waiver for Oregon

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:07:19 -0500

The Huffington Post reports that Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), "one of the most innovative voices in the health care debate...is accelerating the process of exempting his state from some of the national reforms passed under President Barack Obama."

Wyden is also strongly urging Oregon to seek exemption "from the individual mandate, which would penalize those individuals who refuse to purchase insurance coverage. The mandate was a feature of Wyden's own health care bill but has proved to be remarkably unpopular among voters."

Blair Remains a Mystery

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 17:03:40 -0500

The New York Times reviews former British Prime Minister Tony Blair's new memoir, A Journey: My Political Life, and notes that after "all these years and political miles" he "remains a curiously opaque figure" or a "man without a shadow."

"Much of this book is fluently written, and the production as a whole seems meant to ratify Mr. Blair's belief that he 'was a big player, was a world and not just a national leader.' At the same time the book sheds little light on what drives Mr. Blair or shaped his political vision, and even less new light on how he came to take Britain to war against Iraq."

In fact, Blair writes at the very end, "As you will gather from this memoir, it has never been entirely clear whether the journey I have taken is one of triumph of the person over the politics, or of the politics over the person," leading the reviewer to note "it's not even clear whether the author knows himself."

Alaska Senate Race Looks Close

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 17:00:45 -0500

A new Rasmussen survey in Alaska shows Joe Miller (R) leading Scott McAdams (D) among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 44%.

Bloomberg Very Clear

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 16:09:41 -0500

You can't get more Shermanesque than this: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg was asked if there were "any circumstances" under which he wouldn't finish his third term, Politico reports.

"Yes," the mayor replied.

"What are they?"

"If I died," Bloomberg said.

$3 Billion in Political Ads

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 14:20:55 -0500

Kantar Media/CMAG's Evan Tracey tells Ad Age that the nation's political ad spending is on pace to set a record.

Said Tracey: "Spending so far on political and issue TV ads is $864 million, $50 million more than 2008, and $185 million ahead of 2006 at the same period of time. Historically, two-thirds of all election spending comes during the final 60 days, so we are on track to approach $3 billion in total spending on political and issue ads."

Bonus Quote of the Day

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 14:15:09 -0500

"Don't lie to the governor. That's the message."

-- New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), quoted by Newark Star Ledger, his state's losing out on education funding because of a clerical error.

Kasich Expands Lead in Ohio

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 12:52:33 -0500

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio shows John Kasich (R) has opened up a double-digit lead over Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in the race for governor, 50% to 40%.

"The race has pretty much shaped up as a referendum on Strickland and that is not to the incumbent's advantage. Only 34% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing while 52% disapprove. Republicans are now almost universal in their disapproval of him at 83% while Democrats are a little more divided in their support of his work at 67%. Independents go against him by a 59/26 margin as well."