Politics By Beast

The Beast Buzz - 1/22

2011-01-22T12:58:00.000-05:00

Happy Saturday!

Rudy Giuliani says he's likelier to run for president in 2012 if Sarah Palin enters the race. http://bit.ly/hlYoVa

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan will deliver the GOP response to President Obama's State of the Union address. http://bit.ly/gaCDiG

Arnold Schwarzenegger pays tribute to his late father-in-law, Sargent Shriver. http://lat.ms/eo02Py

Newt Gingrich is looking likelier than ever to run for president. http://politi.co/ePS4we

Goodbye, Keith Olbermann. http://politi.co/ghvkye

(Photo courtesy of The New York Daily News.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/21

2011-01-21T13:09:00.000-05:00

Happy Friday!

Rahm Emanuel and Carol Moseley Braun are surging in the Chicago mayoral race. http://bit.ly/eWwHR4

Lisa Murkowski says the votes aren't there in the U.S. Senate for an Obamacare repeal. http://bit.ly/fCWk35

Joe Lieberman will not commit to supporting President Obama's 2012 re-election bid. http://bit.ly/fSojdF

Rudy Giuliani says he's seriously considering a 2012 presidential bid. http://politi.co/fv5hw5

Karl Rove says Mitt Romney must say he was mistaken in implementing an Obamacare-style health care plan in Massachusetts. http://huff.to/h7vOuS

(Photo courtesy of CBS Chicago.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/20

2011-01-20T10:17:00.000-05:00

Happy Thursday!

Will Ron Paul run for the U.S. Senate in 2012? http://bit.ly/eliq6x

John McCain suggests President Obama consider Joe Lieberman as his next Secretary of Defense. http://politi.co/gXUmbz

Dick Cheney is "intrigued" by the prospect of a Mitch Daniels 2012 run. http://bit.ly/eHybeU

Is Meg Whitman considering a 2012 run vs. Dianne Feinstein? http://bit.ly/eA04sK

Rick Santorum is an ignorant pig. http://huff.to/hP45cS

(Photo courtesy of News One.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/19

2011-01-19T09:29:00.000-05:00

Happy Wednesday!

Sargent Shriver, Peace Corps director and George McGovern's 1972 VP running mate, has died. http://politi.co/fHsMFH

Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) is set to announce today that he will not seek re-election. http://politi.co/ffQl5p

New House Speaker John Boehner is sporting a strong approval rating. http://politi.co/gZk6yP

Newt Gingrich has praise for President Obama. http://politi.co/hQHZLI

Fmr. NYC Mayor Ed Koch comes to the defense of Sarah Palin. http://bit.ly/h70Zer

(Photo courtesy of Cox News Web.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/18

2011-01-18T12:23:00.000-05:00

Happy Tuesday!

Former President George H.W. Bush has endorsed fmr. Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams in the 2012 Texas U.S. Senate race. http://bit.ly/fShDcq

Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar supports a ban on assault weapons. http://huff.to/hIqiet

Former Vice President Dick Cheney has some kind words for President Obama on his implementing of Bush anti-terrorism methods. http://bit.ly/dOSHdT

Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz will run against Sen. Joe Lieberman in 2012. http://bit.ly/dUydBF

Rick Santorum's 2012 strategy? Target Iowa. http://bit.ly/foUuIp

(Photo courtesy of American Rhetoric.)

A Hot, Sexy Connecticut Threesome

2011-01-17T10:58:00.000-05:00

No, I'm not speaking of a Cinemax late-night softcore porno, although I wouldn't be much floored if one titled that actually existed. I'm talking about the 2012 Connecticut U.S. Senate race, a showdown which, presuming incumbent Sen. Joe Lieberman runs again as an Independent candidate, will be a three-person affair.

In one corner, you have Lieberman, who, lately, has been sporting rather grim approval ratings. Liberals are still irked by his behavior during the health care debate, conservatives are wary of his support for liberal legislation like the DREAM Act and the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" repeal, and moderates, though perhaps the most prone to support Lieberman, don't seem thrilled with the guy, either. Still, I have to suspect Lieberman's leadership on the DADT repeal has probably bolstered his standing a bit here. I seriously doubt he's at 50 percent or higher approval, but I wouldn't be shocked if he's back above the 40 percent mark. If so, he probably runs again.

In the second corner, you have Rep. Chris Murphy, who's considered the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, but not necessarily an overwhelming one. There are other possible candidates, and, for Lieberman at least, the more who run, the merrier. Lieberman wants to see Murphy bloodied and battered in a primary, which might irk enough Democrats to bolt for the third-party candidate. If the field is cleared for Murphy, however, that ensures he enters the race with no damaging intraparty conflict and as much money as possible. Murphy goes into a three-way match a modest front-runner, given Democrats outnumber Republicans by a massive margin in Connecticut, plus Lieberman's pull among Independents isn't as overwhelming as you'd suspect; it's even weaker than Charlie Crist's in this past cycle, and even Crist wasn't that strong.

And, in corner #3, you have fmr. WWE CEO Linda McMahon, who looks poised to again run for the U.S. Senate after her failed bid over the last cycle. McMahon ran an OK race in 2010, way overperforming the typical Connecticut Republican, but still failing to siphon-off the Democrats that are necessary for a GOP-er to win here. She's not an overly-popular figure in the state, but she can self-fund, and her financial prowess relieves Republicans from having to pump money in the race. McMahon's hope is that the GOP base is unified behind her, that Murphy faces a bruising Democratic primary, and that Lieberman fails to improve in approval. This perfect storm is what's absolutely necessary for a candidate like McMahon to prevail here.

So, reality time. What probably happens here?

Well, here's my guess - Murphy will face a Democratic primary. Unlike Richard Blumenthal last year, he's hardly a juggernaut in Democratic circles, and there's also support for Connecticut's Secretary of State, Susan Bysiewicz. Bysiewicz is a more liberal, polarizing figure, and while that's damaging in a general election, it can be helpful in a primary environment. But, still, let's presume Murphy wins the nomination, and let's also presume McMahon's money scares any other serious Republicans away from that primary.

Here's the thing - for Lieberman to win here, he needs to thrive on a playing field that's a tad different from the one from his 2006 re-election bid. In that race, the Republicans nominated Alan Schlesinger, a very weak candidate, and this gave Lieberman the license to siphon-off a massive amount of the GOP vote. That, coupled with strong Independent support and adequate Democratic support, gave Lieberman a comfortable leg-up.

It's different here. Against McMahon, the GOP vote just won't be up for grabs. Lieberman might manage 15 to 20 percent, maybe, if McMahon's candidacy falters even worse than in the last cycle. So, he'll need to look elsewhere for the necessary votes. If his approval rises, he could well get to the 50 percent mark among Independents, and that's not bad in a three-way. Here's the hard part, though - for Lieberman to cross the finish line, he needs to steal about a third of the Democratic vote from Murphy. Basically, this means every single self-described "conservative Democrat," and more than half of "moderate Democrats" must bolt for Lieberman. Don't worry about McMahon - she has no chance here. If Lieberman did this, it would bring the race to a scenario where Lieberman and Murphy are lingering around 35 percent and McMahon around 25 percent. Lieberman probably can't win by the double-digit margin from 2006. He'll need to win by the skins of his teeth here.

In the end, though, I'm not sure Lieberman will have the necessary pull with Democrats to prevail here. Murphy will jump into the race as something of a "Lean D" favorite, and Lieberman will have to work extra-extra-super-super hard to win over wary voters from his former party. I'm not saying a Lieberman victory is impossible - hell, a McMahon victory isn't impossible, either. But, given the state's Democrat-heavy electorate, plus the middling favorables of Lieberman and McMahon, you just have to figure Murphy has the obvious advantage here.

(Photo courtesy of The New Haven Register.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/17

2011-01-17T10:51:00.000-05:00

Happy MLK Day!

Fmr. Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle is urging President Obama to consistently meet with the GOP side. http://politi.co/flareb

In the wake of the Arizona tragedy, Rudy Giuliani is calling for a focus on improving mental health care. http://politi.co/fEYFao

Embattled New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez is up 10 points over State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. http://bit.ly/e0Mpxb

House Republicans are gearing up for this week's planned vote on a repeal of Obamacare. http://usat.ly/i9jJEh

Likely 2012 presidential contender Tim Pawlenty opposes raising the debt ceiling. http://huff.to/dFVyvY

(Photo courtesy of Cleveland.com)

The Beast Buzz - 1/16

2011-01-16T13:12:00.000-05:00

Happy Sunday!

U.S. Sens. Rand Paul, Jim DeMint, and Mike Lee will form the new Tea Party Caucus. http://politi.co/hImKeA

Wisconsin's Reince Priebus is the new RNC Chairman. http://politi.co/fXuKX8

Rep. Chris Murphy (D-CT) is seriously considering a run vs. Sen. Joe Lieberman. http://bit.ly/fqe5b9

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) is poised to introduce a new bill that would slow down the passed repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." http://politi.co/ij8JLJ

Once again, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie simply ain't interested in a 2012 presidential run. http://bit.ly/g7FDCU

(Photo courtesy of The Christian Science Monitor.)

It's a Bird! It's a Plane! It's Herman Cain!

2011-01-14T12:11:00.000-05:00

Forget former governors like Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin. Scratch off a former Speaker of the House. Any current or fmr. U.S. Senators or perhaps even a fmr. U.N. Ambassador? Kick them to the curb, too. Clearly, what this country is craving in leadership right now is the former CEO of the yuckiest major pizza chain of the past few decades.

At least, that's what Herman Cain, the fmr. CEO of Godfather's Pizza, appears to be banking on.

Cain, who's become something of a Tea Party darling at rallies across the country, is the first Republican to officially announce his candidacy, or, more precisely, exploratory committee, for the 2012 nomination for U.S. President. Sure, the likes of Romney, Pawlenty and Santorum seem guaranteed to eventually jump in, but their announcements probably won't come for months. Cain, hardly a figure of great name recognition, is probably hoping this early candidacy will garner him some buzz around the political circuit.

While such buzz is likely to be minimal at best, Cain is a candidate I wouldn't entirely brush aside. In fact, when the debates come around, I fully expect Cain, a terrific, commanding orator, to stand out big time against the less showy likes of Romney and Pawlenty. He does know how to inspire a crowd, and his already-built connections with the Tea Party movement could provide him traction in a caucus state like Iowa.

Of course, Cain doesn't have a shot in hell of actually winning the nomination. He might well be able to self-fund to some extent, but the fundraising won't be there, plus if Palin runs, she vacuums up most of the Tea Party base with ease. Cain has also hit the campaign trail before, with little success, having run for the GOP nod to take Zell Miller's U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. Cain came in a distant second in the primary to current Sen. Johnny Isakson. So, it's hard to fathom how Republican investors are instilled with confidence over a guy who garnered 26 percent of the vote in his only shot at public office.

I envision Cain as the GOP field's answer to Mike Gravel in the coming cycle. That is, he steals the show at all of the debates, and to very little avail. Like Gravel, he'll probably even make a memorable television commercial or two. Alas, despite the charisma, the resume's just not there. Yes, voters want some business experience in tough economic times, but Romney has that covered better than anyone.

The fmr. CEO of a shitty pizza joint that went out of style by the end of the '80s? Probably not so much.

(Photo courtesy of I Am Citizen Cain.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/14

2011-01-14T12:08:00.000-05:00

Happy Friday!

Michael Steele is unlikely to win re-election to his RNC chairmanship today. http://politi.co/gRwjAi

Likely 2012 contender Tim Pawlenty will speak before a key group of Hispanic Republicans. http://politi.co/g1ZKls

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) will not run for re-election. http://politi.co/gGMsMh

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Newark Mayor Cory Booker would tie, 42 to 42, in a hypothetical 2013 showdown. http://politi.co/ibMNDw

Rush Limbaugh is attacking Brit Hume and Charles Krauthammer for praising President Obama's memorial speech. http://huff.to/enV3IX

(Photo courtesy of The Black Snob.)

The Mess with Texas

2011-01-13T12:54:00.000-05:00

In speaking to some fellow, politically-observant colleagues of mine lately, the 2012 U.S. Senate race in Texas has curiously piqued our interest. This is the race where incumbent Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison is likely to face at least one significant Tea Party challenger in a GOP primary. This, despite Hutchison boasting rather strong approval ratings with the state's electorate as a whole - she's enormously popular with Independents and unusually popular (for a Republican) with Democrats.

A new poll basically confirms this assertion.

This poll, conducted by Blem & Weprin for a series of Texas newspapers, finds Hutchison with a solid 46/26 approval/disapproval rating, meaning a net 20 in approval - very nice, especially amid an environment that is decidedly anti-incumbent. Where Hutchison faces a ghastly road block, however, is in her approval among registered Republicans. While 56 percent of them approve of her job performance, that's hardly a ringing endorsement - looking at the glass half empty, that means 44 percent of her own party either doesn't approve or doesn't care.

It's data like this which must frustrate Hutchison something awful. After all, should she win her party's nomination, she'll steamroll through the general election with grand ease. The state's Democratic bench is rather anemic - the best of the lot being fmr. State Comptroller John Sharp and fmr. Rep. Chet Edwards - and even the best of the best wouldn't come close to ousting Hutchison.

Alas, Hutchison has a real problem on her hands, and that problem is the Tea Party.

Hutchison's most viable path to primary victory would surely be garnering multiple right-wing challengers, in the hopes that perhaps they bloody one another up to the point where their unfavorables are just as high as hers'. Keep in mind, however, Texas holds a primary run-off system, meaning should no candidate break the 50 percent mark, a one-on-one run-off between the plurality victor and runner-up will take shape. Presuming Hutchison did advance, she would somehow need to drawn-in the losing Tea Party candidates' supporters, and the odds of that are probably slim to none. So, Hutchison probably needs 50 percent right from the starting gate, and that's gonna be tough as nails.

What's especially heartbreaking for Hutchison is that even some of the rank-and-file seem wary of her re-election bid.

While the likes of Dick Cheney and George H.W. Bush have been consistently behind Hutchison at every step, Newt Gingrich and Jim DeMint have already endorsed Michael Williams, the state's Railroad Commissioner, in his likely primary challenge to Hutchison. Williams is a staunch conservative with Mike Huckabee-style charisma. He's also African-American, and would be the first black Republican U.S. Senator since Edward Brooke. He's probably the candidate to beat here.

But, here's a fun scenario to mull over - what if Hutchison does eek-out a primary victory, but the Tea Party refuses the let the war end there, instead launching a right-wing third-party challenge in the general? Could the Democrat win with a plurality of the vote? You might think so, until you realize Hutchison is atypically popular with Democrats and would probably take 20 percent of them. So, in a case like that, Hutchison probably claims victory.

Alas, I think all political junkies should prepare for the likelihood of a Sen. Michael Williams.

(Photo courtesy of Chris Leonard.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/13

2011-01-13T12:51:00.000-05:00

Happy Thursday!

Fmr. Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain has launched a presidential exploratory committee. http://bit.ly/giVwud

Does a splintered Latino vote give Carol Moseley Braun an easy leg-up in the Chicago mayoral race? http://bit.ly/e9iRrE

A look at the contentious RNC Chairman race. http://nyti.ms/ff4fxs

President Obama's approval rating is on the rise. http://politi.co/gR8EPb

Chris Christie has hit back at Rudy Giuliani's criticisms over Christie's Disney World vacation. http://politi.co/e195ti

(Photo courtesy of Black Christian America.)

Rick Santorum's 2012 Adventure

2011-01-12T12:42:00.001-05:00

Am I the only political observer who finds it just a tad odd that the likes of fmr. U.S. Senators Dan Coats, Carol Moseley Braun, and Rick Santorum are striving to stage comebacks lately?

After all, here are three figures who, over the past five to ten years, have been rather irrelevant in American politics. Coats retired from the U.S. Senate in '98, while Moseley Braun and Santorum were ousted in their bids for re-election in '98 and '06, respectively. For years, these three appeared toast when it came to the political scene, and now, to the surprise of most political junkies, Coats has now returned to his old U.S. Senate seat, Moseley Braun is very competitive in the Chicago mayoral race vs. Rahm Emanuel, and Santorum, somehow, someway, appears poised to make a bid for U.S. President in '12.

Santorum is who I'd like to focus upon here. After all, I've spent the past two weeks already delving into Moseley Braun's situation, and I spoke at length about Coats's bid last summer. Both of their returns to the political arena have been very impressive, but it's Santorum's attempt at a comeback that has most piqued by curiosity.

After all, just how could this man, who lost his Pennsylvania re-election bid by a hefty 18 points (!) in '06, seriously think he has a shot in a presidential race?

For the longest time, I myself hadn't been able to answer it. Santorum's way to the right of most Americans when it comes to social conservatism, and he hardly has a notable record on foreign affairs or matters of other domestic policy. He eeked-out two U.S. Senate victories by rather narrow margins, and against pretty lackluster candidates to boot. When the Pennsylvania Democrats finally mounted a decent candidate, Bob Casey, Jr., he was completely obliterated in this swing state. (Of course, in a presidential race, if the Republican candidate loses by 18 points in Pennsylvania, they lose by about 15 nationwide - in other words, a complete blowout.)

Then, I think I figured it out.

The first GOP presidential contest, Iowa, is a far different environment than Pennsylvania. The religious right is overwhelming in an Iowa Republican primary, and that is precisely Santorum's base. In Pennsylvania, the prominence of the religious right is there, but only to a certain extent. In Iowa, it's a much stronger force, and Santorum might well have the capability of winning over this base, especially if the likes of Palin and Huckabee were to pass on a run.

That's just the thing, of course - if religious right-friendly candidates like Palin and Huckabee do run, Santorum is toast. In fact, at that point, he probably wouldn't enter the race, anyway. But, if either or both of those major candidates did opt out of 2012, Santorum could find myself a huge opening here. Iowa is a state where the likes of Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes managed to gain traction. Sure, the Iowan support alone wasn't enough to get them very far, but, at the very least, it provided someone like Keyes the momentum and boost in finances to continue on in the race.

That's what Santorum is hoping for - something like a decent third-place finish in Iowa, which will give him the oomph necessary to advance into South Carolina. No, he won't win, but if someone like the moderate Romney does, he'll wind up virtually forced to at least consider the conservative Santorum as his running-mate. Which, of course, would be completely toxic, since Santorum is a dreadful candidate outside of a Republican primary.

Unlike Moseley Braun, I don't much personally admire Santorum. In fact, he's one of my least favorite politicians ever. I find him downright vile. That's not to say, of course, that I'm not completely entranced and fascinated by his bizarre attempt at a comeback.

(Photo courtesy of Vermont Daily Briefing.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/12

2011-01-12T12:38:00.000-05:00

Happy Wednesday!

Can Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) survive redistricting that will make for a less liberal district? http://politi.co/hLRHSw

Possible 2012 contender Tim Pawlenty is touring New York City in an effort to boost his name recognition. http://bit.ly/h83Srd

John Boehner opposes Rep. Peter King's proposed gun control legislation. http://bit.ly/dQkEdx

Vicki Kennedy will not run for her late husband's U.S. Senate seat in 2012. http://politi.co/hbh9FS

A look at Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer in the wake of the tragedy of Tuscan. http://politi.co/hmcWaT

(Photo courtesy of America 20XY.)

No Contest in New Hampshire?

2011-01-11T10:09:00.000-05:00

A new poll on the 2012 presidential race suggests fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) may not have to break a sweat when it comes to winning in the early New Hampshire Republican primary.

The poll, conducted by GOP firm Magellan Strategies, finds Romney with 39 percent of the vote, followed by Sarah Palin at 16, Mike Huckabee at 10, and Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and Haley Barbour trailing the pack in single-digits. A 23-point advantage far outweighs the margins posted by John McCain, one of the most beloved Republican figures in this state, in his 2000 and 2008 victories in the state.

What's key about Romney's advantage here is that Pawlenty, potentially the only other moderate Republican in this thing, doesn't appear to be getting any traction at all. For Romney, this is terrific, as the center-right vote is not getting splintered and he's able to run-up the necessary margin among moderates to claim a comfortably victory. In all fairness, of course, Pawlenty is still a virtual unknown, but he has made several visits to New Hampshire and his name recognition has increased with time. Thus, he should be posting a much better showing than low single-digits.

While Romney can surely take some solace in this poll, the key word there is just that - "some."

For one, it's no surprise that Romney is ahead rather comfortably. This is hardly a state where the likes of the religious right, Palin and Huckabee, have a realistic shot of breaking 20 percent a piece, let alone winning outright. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me much if certain candidates opted to basically skip New Hampshire altogether and instead focus on Iowa, the first caucus state of the season, and South Carolina, the state which might well decide the whole contest.

Indeed, that's just the thing - New Hampshire will hardly be the kingmaker in the 2012 GOP primaries.

Yes, John McCain's 2008 victory was key in catapulting him to front-runner status, but it wasn't until the South Carolina showdown that McCain became all but unstoppable. Had McCain lost in South Carolina, as he had in 2000 vs. George W. Bush, he might well have found himself in a dead heat against Mike Huckabee.

Same goes for Romney. His victory in New Hampshire would be deemed even less a surprise than McCain's 2008 victory, and, thus, his "bounce" out of the state would be very slight. In order to conquer true juggernaut status, he too will need to prove his strength in South Carolina, a state which was hardly favorable to him in the last presidential cycle. No, I suppose Romney doesn't need to outright win there, but, if he were to, it would probably make him as unstoppable as McCain was.

Imagine this scenario - Huckabee wins Iowa and South Carolina, while Romney claims victory in New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and Florida. At this pre-Super Tuesday point, Romney is probably deemed the slight front-runner, and he probably comes out of Super Tuesday a more daunting leader. If, however, Huckabee was to take Florida, it would probably be a dead heat post-Super Tuesday, leading into another key showdown come Ohio and Texas. Let's say Romney wins Ohio, Huckabee Texas. Then, comes Pennsylvania, where Romney eeks-out victory, and Huckabee exits shorly after that.

And, all the while, a certain President Barack Obama is sitting in the oval office with the greatest grin on his face - he'll face a battered, bloodied, bruised Mitt Romney in the general election.

(Photo courtesy of Zimbio.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/11

2011-01-11T10:06:00.000-05:00

Happy Tuesday!

Pat Buchanan is calling on political figures to tone-down their rhetoric. http://politi.co/f1WFzK

Fmr. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay has been sentenced to three years in prison. http://politi.co/h103kX

A new poll finds President Obama would defeat Chris Christie by 17 points in New Jersey. http://bit.ly/eCoA1q

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) says he'll make a decision on his political future by the end of the month. http://bit.ly/fLULim

Will presumed front-runner Jim Talent pass on the Missouri U.S. Senate race? http://politi.co/f4eiPS

(Photo courtesy of The Grio.)

What is Rudy Thinking?

2011-01-10T10:25:00.000-05:00

Late last week, The New York Post raised more than a few political-observing eyebrows with an article stating that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is seriously considering another presidential bid in 2012.

This, after having basically imploded in the 2008 Republican primaries, where Giuliani began the race as an overwhelming front-runner, and, by the Iowa caucus, found himself with virtually no chance. He squandered his bid by stacking all chips on a bizarre Florida strategy - that is, he essentially ceded Iowa and New Hampshire to Mike Huckabee and John McCain, hoping their quarrel would allow him to sneak through in the later Florida primary. Of course, that didn't work in the slightest. His finished third in the Sunshine State and dropped out that evening.

Now, according to reports, Giuliani sees something of an opening in the 2012 primaries, and, this time around, that opening probably would not go through Florida.

It appears as though Giuliani envisions a 2012 field in which there's no true moderate candidate. That is, he suspects Mitt Romney, the most centrist of the potential contenders, will very possibly tack to the far-right during the primaries, hoping to gain traction with conservatives. If such occurs, that does leave something of an opening with the few Republicans who are self-described "moderates," and that's where Giuliani would hope to score.

If this is the case, Giuliani's campaign would probably focus upon New Hampshire, where there are a decent number of moderate Republicans and Independents (keep in mind, it's an open primary). If Romney's campaign imploded, Giuliani might well be correct - a path might well open up for a more center-right candidate to find success.

Here's the problem, though, besides Giuliani basically being a washed-up has-been at this point.

In order for Giuliani to gain traction at all, foreign policy and terrorism would somehow need to once again become the most hot-button issues. The economy would have to improve, and, as offensive as this might well sound, a terrorist attack would undoubtedly aid a Giuliani presidential bid. Unlike Romney, this is a man who's never been especially praised or well-known for bonafides on the economy or jobs, so if they're still overwhelming the top issues in 2012, he probably has no opening.

On top of that, of course, are the same primary problems from 2008 - he's a pro-choice, pro-gay rights moderate from Noo Yawk (where there's blacks and Jews!) who'll probably never connect with the conservative base. It would take such a resurgence in the public's interest and concern on foreign affairs for these folks to ever consider voting for Giuliani in the primaries. If he somehow won the GOP nomination, he'd have no choice but to select a uber-conservative, right-wing running mate to appease this crowd.

In all fairness, of course, Giuliani will never get that far. As it stands, Giuliani might well see an opening, but it's a slim opening that would only get him so far in a Republican primary. He could never win Iowa or South Carolina, and his appeal even only goes so far in the Super Tuesday states.

I must give Giuliani this much credit/hope, however - if he did win the nomination, I suspect he is one of the few Republicans who could siphon-off Democrats from President Obama. Yes, GOP turn-out might be a bit down, but Giuliani was infamous for winning upwards of 35 to 40 percent of Democrats in his mayoral bids. He knows how to work the moderate vote quite well.

His problem, however, and it's a fatal one - poor Rudy just can't connect with the conservatives.

(Photo courtesy of Shadow Press.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/10

2011-01-10T10:19:00.000-05:00

Happy Monday!

A weak 56 percent of Republicans approve of the job performance of Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. http://bit.ly/e5vAyc

In the wake of the tragedy in Arizona, staunch gun control advocate Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) is poised to introduce new gun legislation. http://politi.co/e6csDy

Possible 2012 contender Mitt Romney has kicked-off a week-long trip to the Middle East. http://politi.co/fTUiSG

Rep. Luis Guiterrez has endorsed Gery Chico in the Chicago mayoral race. http://bit.ly/eoDFzj

CNN is considering replacing Kathleen Parker on the ratings-starved "Parker/Spitzer" program. http://huff.to/hvkSzC

(Photo courtesy of Swamp Politics.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/8

2011-01-08T12:39:00.000-05:00

Happy Saturday!

Fmr. Nevada GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden would run for U.S. Senate in 2012 if both John Ensign and Dean Heller passed. http://politi.co/i6xijv

A new poll finds Rahm Emanuel up 16 points over Carol Moseley Braun in the Chicago mayoral race. http://politi.co/h5W8xb

A look at the friction between Minnesota Republicans (and possible 2012 presidential contenders) Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann. http://politi.co/hAJ1Lf

Two religious right organizations are protesting the presence of a gay conservative group at the upcoming CPAC event. http://lat.ms/gcJOgy

Harry Reid is predicting that the Tea Party "will disappear" once the economy shows improvement. http://huff.to/hzi3gv

(Photo courtesy of Freedom's Phoenix.)

Deja Vu in Nevada

2011-01-07T12:44:00.000-05:00

In the 2010 Nevada gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons opted to run for re-election, despite sporting one of the lowest approval ratings of any sitting governor in the nation. With Gibbons looking doomed in a general election, fmr. Attorney General Brian Sandoval was recruited to challenge Gibbons in the Republican primary, a race won by Sandoval by about a 2 to 1 margin. In the general election, Sandoval went on to defeat the Democratic nominee, Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid. The GOP's recruiting of Sandoval was deemed a tremendous success.

Fast-forward to Nevada's 2012 landscape, and you find a near-identical situation.

The incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John Ensign is sporting a 35 percent approval rating, according to the latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey. This places Ensign among the least popular GOP senators in the nation, and the PPP internals suggest Ensign will have an uphill battle on his hands should be win the nomination and face a general election. But, wait!

It's a bird! It's a plane! It's a possible Republican primary challenger to the rescue!

Dean Heller, the current congressman and fmr. Nevada Secretary of State, is reportedly mulling over a primary challenge to the unpopular Ensign. The PPP data suggests that while Ensign would face a barn burner vs. Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkeley in a general election, Heller would prevail with ease. This is the sort of data that will surely draw the attention of the likes of NRSC Chairman John Cornyn, who certainly would prefer Heller over Ensign as the party's nominee.

Here's the one difference between the '08 gubernatorial race and the '10 U.S. Senate one, and it's a rather important one - Ensign, unlike Gibbons, is still a relatively popular figure among registered Republicans, and a primary vs. Heller could be much closer than the Gibbons/Sandoval showdown.

What Cornyn and other big-name Republicans don't want is a bruising, bloody primary between Ensign and Heller, which only helps the Democratic nominee. Ideally for Cornyn, Ensign will realize he's toxic in the general election, and he'll step aside for Heller. Of course, Gibbobs was far more unpopular than Ensign and even he still opted to run for re-election.

So, it's a tough one for Ensign. On one hand, he could very well prove competitive in a primary, and, if Berkeley just never caught fire, he might even eek-out a general election victory. On the flip side, he'd also be preventing his party from scoring a very easy win. Should Ensign run, the NRSC will have to pump tons of resources into Nevada; money which would surely be spent elsewhere if Heller's the nominee.

I guess the saying "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" is very much applicable to vulnerable, stubborn Nevada Republicans.

(Photo courtesy of The Sun Sentinel)

The Beast Buzz - 1/7

2011-01-07T12:40:00.000-05:00

Happy Friday!

Is Rudy Giuliani considering another presidential bid? http://bit.ly/fBCz3U

Mitt Romney has a 23 point lead over Sarah Palin in a New Hampshire primary poll. http://bit.ly/gOOxwU

Karl Rove advises Marco Rubio and Chris Christie to not run in 2012. http://bit.ly/hA7PVY

Mitch McConnell gives a thumbs up to President Obama's selection of William Daley for chief-of-staff. http://politi.co/eKnSum

Liberals, though? Thumbs way down. http://politi.co/eFVktj

(Photo courtesy of The New York Daily News.)

Don't Be Afraid of Jon Huntsman

2011-01-06T12:31:00.000-05:00

Which is the more fatal candidate quality in the eyes of Republican primary voters - having implemented a health care system virtually identical to Obamacare, or having worked under President Obama himself?

It's a question many Republicans, particularly moderate ones, may come to ponder if fmr. Utah Gov. (and current Ambassador to China) Jon Huntsman stages a presidential run in 2012. According to a recent Newsweek article, Huntsman refuses to close the door on challenging his boss in the coming election cycle. This, after prior speculation that Huntsman's ambassadorship all but ensured he couldn't run against Obama's re-election bid.

If you'll recall to way back, the White House was reportedly unnerved over Huntsman, viewing him as among the strongest candidates the Republicans could nominate in 2012. Thus, in an effort to keep him from doing so, Obama put him on the payroll, hoping their relationship would keep Huntsman from jumping in with the more flawed likes of Huckabee, Palin, and Gingrich.

It's somewhat understandable why Team Obama was wary of a potential Huntsman run. After all, he was one of the most popular sitting governors in the nation, plus, perhaps most important of all, he encompassed a relatively moderate record which would be difficult to paint as too conservative for a general election. Beyond that, Huntsman is a pretty charasmatic figure to boot, and his new ambassadorship bonafides prove he's more than well-versed enough on matters of foreign affairs.

On the whole, however, I can't help but think Huntsman simply isn't the most daunting candidate the GOP could mount in 2012.

Sure, Huntsman has all of those aforementioned assets, but just think about this guy from a geographical standpoint. Utah is perhaps the last state in the entire union the Democrats will ever bother to target, and there's little proof that he'll carry much appeal in the swing states. Thus, if you're going to select a candidate for any geographical reason in the slightest, Huntsman would be just about the last guy you choose. Okay, perhaps Huntsman plays well in the neighboring Nevada and Colorado, but the GOP will need far more than that if they seriously want to knock Obama off.

Like Romney, I believe Huntsman would also have difficulty in exciting the conservative base. Sure, like John McCain in 2008, he could select a right-wing running mate and hope that does the trick, but I don't believe McCain did anything as nauseating to the GOP base as Romney and Huntsman have done with health care and working in the Obama cabinet. These elements should be fatal in a modern-day GOP primary, and they might well be.

Indeed, that's another thing - does the White House really believe the likes of Huntsman can prevail in a Republican primary?

My own suspicion is absolutely not. After all, if Huntsman enters, that only splinters the moderate vote with Romney, allowing for a Palin or Huckabee to run-up the necessary numbers with conservatives to stage victories. Sure, a moderate candidate will win New Hampshire, but the 2012 GOP contest won't be defined by that state. It'll probably come down to South Carolina, and I can't fathom any scenario where a moderate governor from Utah becomes a matinee idol to Tea Party southerners.

The more I think about it, the more I suspect Huckabee might pull out a primary victory after all.

(Photo courtesy of The Washington Post.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/6

2011-01-06T12:29:00.000-05:00

Happy Thursday!

Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN) says his family is wary of a 2012 presidential run. http://on.msnbc.com/hxdS58

A surprising 19 Democrats yesterday voted against Nancy Pelosi's bid for Senate Minority Leader. http://politi.co/gm1Gi3

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) may be rethinking her original intention to retire in 2012. http://politi.co/ehcXd1

Is filibuster reform dead on arrival? http://politi.co/efewId

Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT) believes President Obama will win re-election in 2012, but by a lesser margin than in 2008. http://bit.ly/eWGtc9

(Photo courtesy of Daily MedRx.)

Dreaming of Chris Christie

2011-01-05T12:28:00.000-05:00

I must admit, I've never felt more comfortable in predicting that, come November of 2012, I will be casting my vote in favor of President Obama's re-election. Sure, he hasn't been the 100% Grade-A, top-choice cut of U.S. President that I'd ideally like, but, then again, there aren't many who could ever fit that bill. (Well, unless Joe Lieberman or Claire McCaskill run for president.) I think he's been perfect on foreign policy, I support his tax cut deal with the Republicans, and, while I have some qualms about the health care reform (I'm opposed to an individual mandate), I think he's correct on most domestic policy.

There is one Republican, however, who could make 2012 a tough decision for me. In all fairness, I adore the likes of Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Scott Brown, but they'd be eaten alive in a presidential primary and they know it. I'm talking about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who's about as moderate as any Republican presidential contender could ever be in the age of the Tea Party.

I think Christie, alongside Newark Mayor Cory Booker, has done terrific work for his state. Sure, he's more socially (and, to an extent, fiscally) conservative than I am, but he's so sincere and passionate in the way he runs his state, and he leaves me yearning for the day that my governor, David Paterson, is finally out of office. He's a tough, brash personality, sure, but I think that's necessary in an environment where both unions and big business get too greedy and confident for their own good.

That is why, despite Christie's firm assertions against doing so, I would love to see him run for the GOP nomination in 2012. I think his presence (and hypothetical polling vs. Obama) would be so strong, he could actually stand a chance at winning the first battleground state, Iowa. This may sound a bit odd, but Christie's just pro-life ENOUGH to connect with some on the religious right, just as he's moderate ENOUGH on a lot of other issues to appeal to Independents and even some conservative Democrats. He's about as firmly "center-right" as it gets, and that's precisely what, on the whole, this country is at the moment.

That's just the thing - Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Huckabee are uber-conservative ideologues. They are vastly more right-wing than the country as a whole, and, with President Obama positioning himself as left-of-center heading into his re-election bid (as opposed to his centrist progressive stance in 2008), it will be particularly difficult for a partisan right-winger to prevail nationwide.

Mitt Romney would be Christie's biggest problem. Like Christie, Romney was the governor of a blue, northeastern state, and he positions himself not as a Tea Party populist, but as a proud member of the Republican rank-and-file/establishment. Both men are all about business and economics. They aren't about the red meat, socially/culturally-conservative nonsense that Palin espouses. Thus, since there are only so many moderates left in the Republican Party, it would be a real problem if both Romney and Christie were to jump in and essentially split the centrist vote.

What sets Christie apart from (and above) Romney is that, in all fairness to my readers who support Romney, Romney is a proven flip-flopper who implemented a health care overhaul in Massachusetts that was virtually identical to Obamacare in terms of the individual mandate. Should he run against the health care reform, he'll prove himself to be even more of a hypocrite. Here is a man who, while very smart on issues of business, has no real political core. He's a palm tree who moves with the wind, depending on whether he's running in blue New England or center-right America. At least Palin, Huckabee, and Gingrich are completely sincere in their right-wingy-ness. Romney's like Nelson Rockefellar in Jim DeMint's clothing.

As for the rest of the possible GOP contenders, I quite like the two Johns - Bolton and Thune - but I have my doubts that either will really catch fire during the primaries. In terms of charisma, Thune would look terrific onstage vs. Obama. Mitch Daniels looks impressive, too. Then you've got the nobodies like Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum, and the libertarian folk like Ron Paul and Gary Johnson. At the end of the day, we might well find upwards of a dozen Republicans on the debate stage.

But, also at the end of the day, I suspect most of these GOP-ers stand little chance vs. Obama. And, with me. There's little doubt in my mind that Chris Christie is the absolute strongest Republican the GOP could nominate. After all, you select him and the likes of New Jersey and Pennsylvania come into play. It would be a headache for Democrats.

Well, that is, except Democrats like me. I think Christie is one of only a handful of Republicans who can truly siphon-off Democrats from Obama. At the very least, a Christie candidacy freezes the decision of many a moderate, and that's quite a feat for most Republican candidates out there today. Romney, for all the buzz over his centrist bonafides, probably won't win-over many Democrats vs. Obama. He's basically "generic Republican" at its most...well, generic. He's not only vanilla, he's low-fat vanilla.

Should Christie run and win the Republican nomination, the moderate wing of the GOP, pronounced dead in the wake of recent losses by Bob Bennett and Mike Castle, will be revived in an instant. It's a revival I, as a Democrat, wouldn't mind seeing.

(Photo courtesy of Lehigh Valley Live.)

The Beast Buzz - 1/5

2011-01-05T12:24:00.000-05:00

Happy Wednesday!

Hello, Speaker Boehner. http://politi.co/fDfl8A\

Is Michelle Bachmann really weighing a 2012 presidential bid? http://huff.to/g6G2F9

Possible 2012 contender Rick Santorum is taking shots at both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. http://bit.ly/g2FLAb

Is Maine's incoming governor, Paul LePage, is the next Chris Christie? http://bit.ly/eX8Rv0

Comedian Roseanne Barr has some choice criticism for Sarah Palin. http://politi.co/emRurH

(Photo courtesy of American Progress.)