Politics Run Through The Rinse Cycle

How the Democrats Blew The Tax "Debate"

2010-12-02T19:03:00.000-05:00

So it has been a while since I have posted on here while my focus has been on getting the hockey site off the ground and because it had a more built in following from the start it took precedence. Obviously since I last posted the elections happened and wow was that a bad result, but I will come back to that and what really happened another time along with how the Democrats, specifically the White House, do not seem to be grasping the actual lessons they were taught a month ago. For today the focus is on specific screw up it appears the Democrats and that White House are about to make on the tax issue.

In 2008 when Barack Obama was running for the presidency he would classify the Bush tax cuts as fiscally reckless, along with looking out for millionaires and billionaires instead of the middle class. This argument was still be espoused by the President in a speech in Cleveland three months ago and to some extent in interviews since. The difference is that now the White House apparently is willing to cut a deal on the tax cuts even though they have publicly said it is a 700 billion dollar giveaway to the top 2% of the population that will not improve the job situation or the economy, but this time it was he would not threaten to veto their extension. Today the news is that it appears the deal is being cut to possibly extend them for an interim period of two years in the most likely scenario. So what in the facts changed about their viability that now they have the upper hand while the middle class tax cuts which actually do boost the economy are being held hostage? The true answer is nothing other than the resolve and spine of the Democrats writ large and the White House.

Public polling is on the side of the Democrats on the issue for once in a tax debate as the majority is for extending the middle class tax cuts and an overwhelming majority is against extending the tax breaks for the wealthy and yet here we are. If the Democrats had been smart they would have trotted out the vote they had in the House of Representatives today two months ago and made every Republican office holder have an up or down vote on whether to stand with the middle class or not. Imagine the theater that would have been watching the tea partiers and supposed populist GOP candidates having to explain that they could not stand with the middle class for their tax cut unless the rich “wall-street” types got theirs too. The problem was the Democrats had jelly instead of steel in their spine and they punted afraid that any tax talk would be good for Republicans instead of actually making the voters see the differences in the two parties.

The simple fact is Democrats will NEVER beat Republicans in a sound bite war on any issue because the GOP is just better at it. Republicans are the best at the sound bites because they keep it simple and go for the old it must fit on a bumper sticker rule while Democrats sit there and try to explain everything. Look no further than the leaders for the Democrats against the leaders elected and unelected for the GOP. Obama on just about any and all issues will sit there and explain the facts expecting the audience to actually want to know the facts and find out the actual information while Republicans will sit there and simply say, “TAXES=BAD”. Reality is facts do not matter in most of these debates until you make someone vote and force them to do the right thing or use it against them.

The first rule for politicians is not about making the best policy or creating jobs, rather it is about focusing on sustaining one job; theirs. The lesson to be learned here and over the last two years is that being a politician in Washington these days is not about policy at all, it is solely about politics and until the President learns that having the facts in a policy argument is never going to win against these opponents and learns to play the political games he decries so often he is going to continue to get tattooed while caving to the opposition and trying to spin it into victory. Any extension of the Bush tax cuts is a loss for the country and the debt and there is no way to spin that, especially when the very next day the people who will get more free money for the rich will then complain about doing anything the Democrats want that is not paid for using the debt and deficit as their crutch.

Back To The Front Lines of Campaigning: Vote Row E New York

2010-10-29T10:53:00.002-04:00

In January of 2007 I walked into the Working Families Party office at 2-4 Nevins Street not fully sure of what I was getting myself in to or what the job I was applying for really meant I would be doing. For the following seven months I would get the best first hand understanding of how an organization can mobilize people through their organization and the passion of it's workers into creating real social change. I wish everyone even if for only one day could experience what it is like to walk in the office knowing that they will see the other side of what it means to be truly involved in our democracy and help to organize those in their communities.

When people think of the democratic process the first thing and for many the only thing they think of and is required of them is to go vote on election day. For me there are many very sad parts of that statement in that even with that mentality more than half of the registered voters in this country do not even fulfill that right which so many before them have fought for them to be able to exercise. The other part that saddens me is that many think once they exercise their right to vote on Election Day that their requirements as a citizen of this republic are fulfilled until the next time elections come around. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Who we elect certainly plays a role in the policies that we see in our daily lives, but it is in the action of holding the politicians we send to the state county office, the state house, or Washington D.C. that we can have the most impact on the policies that are passed. My first experience with WFP was an election campaign and I believe a canvass operation was in the field for 34 of the 35 days leading up to the election to inform voters of the choices in the election, allow them to ask questions so they could make informed decisions and most importantly encourage them to vote and be a part of the process. Seems like a normal thing for most to pay attention at least in the last couple weeks of an election cycle but in that case it was a special election in January on Long Island where the expected turnout was only expected to be 10-15%.

When that election was over there was no consideration that the fight and the work for social change was at all finished but in the results of the election all of us were more driven to enact it in what many deem the "offseason" of the political process. In the weeks that followed the work stopped being about a particular candidate and shifted into a letter and phone campaign about budget cuts to health care that the new governor was proposing in his first budget. This is the real work of democracy. You elect representatives in this case having just been sworn into office a month prior and then you see the proposals on the table and you hold them accountable to the desires of their constituents by getting the constituents organized in a united voice.

If in this economy you believe in things like the right to a higher minimum wage, affordable housing, transparent government, green jobs, a living wage, paid family leave, and of course universal affordable health care then on November 2nd in NYC you will vote Row E to help the Working Families Party hold your politicians accountable. Since I believe in all of those things today I go back to the front lines of organizing and seek to help others understand those things and make that same choice in the midterm elections this year. All the talk in the mainstream media is about the enthusiasm gap and how the passion rests on the conservative side of the aisle. I dare all those in the media to walk into a WFP canvass operation because when they walk out they will think much differently.

In 2008 Barack Obama ran his campaign on the idea that one voice could change a room and that the accumulation of those voices could eventually in the domino effect change the world. I am a believer to that in the abstract, but what I know even more is that every person I see when I walk in that WFP office this morning will do their part today to help change the world of someone they talk to today about exercising their rights as an informed voter come November 2nd, 2010 and even more they will still be doing it on November 3rd when the cameras stop paying attention at the local levels.

And now a message from Matt Damon:

Republicans Admit There Shall Be No Compromise

2010-10-25T11:14:00.004-04:00

For anyone that doubted the conclusions I had drawn last week when I said that if the Republicans were rewarded for the “just say no/take your ball and go home” tactics of the last two years, Mike Pence has erased any of those doubts now. On Friday, The Hill’s Michael O’brien released an article laying out the GOP game plan post elections titled, “GOP says compromise not on the agenda if they retake the House.”

If the title was not enough to lay out the projected game plan inside you have the following:

"Look, the time to go along and get along is over," said Rep. Mike Pence (Ind.), the chairman of the House Republican Conference. "House Republicans know that. We’ve taken firm and principled stands against their big government plans throughout this Congress, and we’ve got, if the American people will send them, we’ve got a cavalry of men and women headed to Washington, D.C. that are going to stand with us."

I don’t claim to be the smartest kid in the class, but I don’t remember when Mike Pence and his Republican colleagues thought in the last two years there was ever a time to get along. The only thing that is a bigger joke than claiming they had at some point sought to work together to solve problems is his claim that now they are taking principled stands on big government, spending and deficits while seeking to expand governments role in the lifestyle decisions of the people and calling for an extension of the Bush tax cuts without finding a dime to pay for them.

If voters want to send a message to Washington to actually get something done the only way to do that is to punish behavior like the last two years, not reward it because as you learn in any psychology class the positive reinforcement of even bad behavior leads to repeated behavior. If you want to do things like roll back medicare, social security and other social safety net programs that have been a foundation of this country, then by all means go ahead and vote for the Republicans. What I would say thought is do not go out and cast a ballot in anger because you are frustrated with where the economy is right now without understanding the full consequences of what they will do with your vote.

If you thought the first two years of the Obama administration had a hard time getting an agenda through Congress just wait until the Republican House can truly be the equal to the filibuster demanding Senate.

A Congressman In A Conservative District Shows Democrats The Right Way

2010-10-23T13:13:00.002-04:00

Tom Perriello Shows Democrats How To Fight on Donations
Perriello closing Statement 10-19-10 debate Promoting Progressive Principles.

The videos above is exactly what I was talking about the other day when I said that Democrats needed to show their voters that they are proud of their beliefs and values instead of running and hiding just trying to survive and save their jobs. Perriello is from the conservative leaning 5th district of Virginia and won a close race back in 2008 and many would have "understood" or at least excused it if in trying to get re-elected he did what so many other Democrats have done in this cycle; distancing themselves from their votes and the principles of the party under whom they are on the ballot. This is not Tom Perriello's way. He has gone the opposite way and pushed even harder to espouse and explain the progressive values in the face of the long odds in his district. Whether he wins or not will not be the measure of the character of Tom Perriello because in victory or defeat he gave his constituents an honest campaign and a real choice on Election Day, which is more than many of his colleagues can say. This is leadership and we need more of it.

A Look at the Senate Picture

2010-10-22T22:11:00.001-04:00

In looking at the races in the US Senate we must in some ways understand where we have been to see where we currently are. Twelve months ago the assumption was that the Democrats even in a bad environment were going to be a lock to hold on to a majority in the Senate. A few months ago and even as shortly as a few weeks ago it started to seem as if the Republicans had a real shot at taking control away. I say taking control away, in terms of the majority, since we have all seen that in reality they have had control of the Senate already by imposing the filibuster proof margins to do anything.

The chance still exists right now for the Republicans to gain the majority as there are eight races right now that are either slighty one way or pure tossups. Those being Washington, California, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Kentucky. There was also a poll in the past few days that showed a glimmer of hope for Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. The way I would project the overall standings at the moment is 48 locks for the Democrats (counting Delaware, Connecticut) to 44 for the Republicans giving them (Florida, Alaska, New Hampshire, Missouri and Wisconsin). What this means is that the Senate could be anything from 56-44 for the Dems to 48-52 with the Republicans in control. It is always possible that Feingold could have real momentum and find a way along with the Republicans splitting the vote so badly in Alaska that McAdams squeaks in but not seeing enough evidence of either to believe it.

In terms of the eight races that I have identified Democrats seem to be advancing in Colorado, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Kentucky while losing ground in Washington, California, which leaves Illinois and Nevada as basically not changing much.

The movement to the Dems in Colorado, and Kentucky seems to be as much due to failures of the GOP candidates as it is a new found affinity to the Republican candidate whether it be women’s issues in Colorado with Buck or Medicare in Kentucky with Paul. Colorado has the feel of a legitimate hold for the Democrats though I cannot make myself fully believe in the Dems getting a pickup. Predictions: Bennett by 2, Paul by 8
In Pennsylvania you have a candidate in Joe Sestak who is doing things to make himself more known as standing up without apologizing for him positions combined with more focus being put on Toomey and his long stated desire to privatize social security. Don’t know if it was false hope or not on my part but I never had Pennsylvania as a lost cause as many seemed even as little as two weeks ago. There is a quality progressive candidate who has the necessary toughness credentials for Pennsylvania with his career as an admiral in the Navy versus a candidate who had been give a free ride all year and was the de-facto first Tea Party candidate years before the full blown movement came. Also don’t forget huge registration advantage for Democrats in Pennsylvania. As always Pennsylvania for Democrats will depend heavily on voter turnout in Philadelphia. Prediction: Sestak by 3
West Virginia appears to be a race in which you have an outsider candidate in Raese who is being hurt by his Florida country club life with Rush Limbaugh, the hicky stereotype ad, and his views on minimum wage. On the Democratic side you have a candidate who has been very popular as governor and once he got scared in this race decided he needed to run right even changing his position on health care reform. Prediction: Manchin by 6
In Washington polling keeps flipping from Patty Murray advancing to Rossi closing in on her so it is very tough to read the overall mood of the state for me. Personally I think Patty Murray has been a very good senator and I cant stand Dino Rossi. The big divide is most polling seems to be along gender lines with Murray doing very well with women and Rossi getting his advantage with men. Prediction: Murray by 3
California is a very interesting race for me as it seemed that Boxer was pulling away as Jerry Brown also began to make headway in the Governor’s race but since Fiorina has slowly closed in. Still tough for me to buy Republicans winning this race with a candidate in an election year that is supposedly anti-corporation with the definition of a golden parachute CEO who would fire anyone to increase her bonuses. Prediction: Boxer by 8
Illinois is my candidate for re-count in 2010 as neither candidate can get any sort of significant lead in the race. Neither candidate is very good which accounts for the huge number of undecided voters in each and every poll. Prediction: Kirk by 1
Nevada is a case of a candidate who is both the face of the Obama agenda but also with the personality of death warmed over versus a candidate who will spout crazy ideas and then deny she ever said them even if they are on tape. These two are truly made for each other and the only way either would have a chance is against the other. Against any other candidate both are getting blown out right now and I would bet most Nevada voters wish there was a “none of the above” option on the ballot. As bad as Reid is and his debate performance was pitiful I have to believe people can’t elect Angle to the US Senate. Prediction: Reid by 1.

The way I see it with these predictions would end up 54/46. None of those are locks with basically 10 days left and I am curious to see if there is any sustained movement in Wisconsin for Feingold. The most interesting thing is to think where this race would be without the Tea Party as establishment candidates in NV, DE would be locks for wins along with better chances in CT, KY, thus the Republicans would have a better chance of winning the majority. The key to many of these races as always will be which segments of the voter population turns out on election day. An older, whiter voting group likely bodes well for Republicans, while he Democrats will likely benefit if they can anywhere mimic the turnout among young and minority voters of 2008.

The Enthusiasm Gap: Who Is Responsible for It

2010-10-21T17:06:00.001-04:00

One of the buzz phrases for the midterms has been “enthusiasm gap” and the talk of how the Republicans are so energized this year while the Democrats are rather indifferent. First I am not willing to concede the point that the gap exists, but what I will say is that the Republicans/Tea Party supporters certainly appear to be more vocal about it. What I will look at today is not if the gap exists, but analyze why it might and the responsibilities of the different parties if does. In doing that I am going to look at the voter, the media and the politicians themselves to see what role they play in ability for an enthusiasm gap to exist.

In the case of the voter it is understandable to focus first on the day to day issues and keeping your head above water in the tough economic and financial situations many are in right now. It is also understandable to be angry with the fact that as much as the economic indicators of the overall economy and stock market are advancing the main street situations on jobs, and housing do not seem to be improving for enough people. The anxiety is legitimate and I will not seek to tell you otherwise. What I will tell you though is that the anxiety and anger does not necessarily mean that voting based on it will make the situation any better.

There was this notion for many that the election of Barack Obama and a Democratic House and Senate with wide majorities could walk in the door on Jan 20, 2009 and by Jan 21, 2009 things would be all better not only with the economy but any problem people could think of. Against those expectations there was no way to view the first two years of the Obama administration as a success. There are plenty of missed opportunities on a larger stimulus; jobs; climate change; pushing Health Care further; implementing Health Care earlier; drawing down instead of ramping up in Afghanistan. Forgotten is the accomplishments of staving off a depression; saving 8 million jobs; drawing down troops in Iraq (I don’t consider it over with 50K Americans left); adding diversity to the Supreme Court with two women, one of whom is the first ever Latino on the court; passing the biggest Health Care reform since Medicare.

Whether we fully feel it or not in our day to day lives the overall health of this nation is better than it was 21 months ago and as hard as so many worked to give the vision laid out in 2008 a chance to be seen, it would be a shame to watch it be killed; to watch obstructionism win. As far as I am concerned there is some blame to go around to the people who forgot or didn’t fully understand how a democracy works. This system while better than the rest is still based on the idea that people are to be held accountable, but what I lost is the fact it doesn’t mean only on Election Day. The level of engagement that existed before the 2008 election especially among those who had never been involved before was immense and it seems that as soon as Inauguration Day came most thought the job was done. What I am saying now is that to either be apathetic for the midterms because you didn’t get all you wanted is to throw away all the work you put into setting the table in the first place. Now is not the time to take the ball and go home as the Republicans have for the last two years it is the time to remember again why you voted for one vision for the future of this country over the other and work twice as hard to make sure the negativity that marred the past two years doesn’t get rewarded.

One of the biggest causes of the assumed enthusiasm gap in my opinion is the main stream media because for some reason the media has stopped reporting the actual news and just begun to focus solely on whomever makes the most noise. Part of this is because of places like Fox News, but CNN and MSNBC are no better in that they feed into whatever the storyline of the day is and report it as if it is actual fact. Some of these places report it with the idea that people will actually ask questions and want to find out the facts, while others want you to believe exactly what you see and never ask for proof. Either way you have a cycle of similar talking points floating around and in the day and time of everything being gotten by the easiest means necessary the time is not always taken to find the truth. The media used to be a place where it was vetted and checked before it was ever reported but in the age of the 24 hour news cycle, breaking news, ratings focus and the need to be first it doesn’t happen nearly as often as it should anymore.

Now I want to focus on the least talked about cause for the enthusiasm gap, which is the politicians running for office themselves. Democrats almost as a natural state of being are used to being defensive and going into a shell. In 2006 and 2008 they did not do this as they attacked the policies of George Bush and co to rousing electoral success. This year with all the talk of the awful environment to be a Democrat they have gone back into the crouch position and many seem willing to just ride it out hoping to survive. That philosophy engenders ZERO enthusiasm to be supported by anyone. You will not find a Republican/Tea Party candidate that is ashamed of any position no matter how out there it might be and like it or not in engenders passion for their side.

Why more Democrats don’t just stand up and say, “You elected me to do what I believed was right to restore the prosperity of this nation and I am doing that in the ways I told you I would” is beyond me. Democrats have run on the idea of fixing Health Care for generations, in this term they passed a step in that direction, more progress than anything since Medicare and yet because a pollster says the term “Obamacare” is not popular they wont run touting the accomplishment. It is time for the Democratic candidates to buck up, have a spine and let the voters have a choice not between returning back to the Bush era with a more extreme group controlling it, and a scared child afraid to lead, but between the Democratic vision of America and the somewhat loony hypocritical ideas being shoved down the voters throats. If there is one thing that I wish Democrats did more like the Republican/Tea Party politicians it is be proud of what you believe in. Stop apologizing for the vision that got you elected to begin with. Stop apologizing for believing that in certain areas government can make the lives of all Americans better. If you run with passion, run with pride in who you are, what you stand for, if you LEAD people will have a reason to be enthused and follow you. We are seeing this now in recent polling in the Senate when it comes to races like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania where the Democrat is not apologizing for who they are, and fighting back against the Republican they face. So Democrats, show your face, and people will fight to put your body back in your place in Congress.

Mainstream Thinking Clouds Reality For Midterm Elections

2010-10-20T16:12:00.001-04:00

Here we sit 13 days until the 2010 midterm elections and all across the mainstream media all I see is how the Democrats are about to get rolled by the Republicans/Tea Party candidates. It may very well happen and to some extent it always happens that the midterms mean losses for the President’s party, but certainly not to the extent that some are projecting. The talking points are that the losses will be because of: the economy; a distaste for big government; fear of the deficit/national debt; high taxes; health care reform; the need for divided government are the main drivers of the backlash against Democrats and Obama.

In a vacuum all those individual issues/talking points seem like valid reasons for Democrats to be in trouble this coming election season. After all those are many of the supposed purposes for forming the Tea Party movement in the first place. The problem with this “conventional wisdom” is that the candidates slated in many races against don’t actually represent those interests whether they spout about them or not. The other problem is that the Democrats having taken to the fetal position in being afraid in the supposed bad environment to actual stand up for what they believe in, thus only making the passionate claims of their opponents resonate more.

The only legitimate complaint in the afore mentioned list that lacks hypocrisy is the fact that while the economy is positive in terms of GDP and the stock market have rebounded the job situation has not to a nearly satisfactory extent. An argument can be made that the GDP would be better and that the jobs picture would be better if Republicans had worked with Democrats on the stimulus and stopped filibustering all jobs bills in the Senate, but I will leave that alone for now.

The easiest claim to make and the one that is made every time a Democrat sits in the White House is that big government is destroying the country. No Democratic administration expanded the role of government and more specifically the executive branch than George Bush in his eight years (see Guantanamo, Patriot Act, Wiretapping, etc). Beyond that there is a slate of candidates out there who want to use government to control access to legal abortions; stop equality from being extended to gays and lesbians in regards to marriage and serving in our armed forces among other social expansions of government. So the government taking taxation for services and social programs is too much government in our lives, but now the government rightfully has a place to tell you how to socially and “morally” live your life. Someone will have to explain to me how that equals out to smaller government because I just do get it.

The fear of the debt/deficit to me is the biggest hypocrisy going out there right now because not one of the people crowing about it as an excuse to stop anything Democrats propose said a word about passing on the bill for the Bush tax cuts, the medicare drug benefit and both wars all of which were not funded a single dime when a Republican Congress and Republican President passed them. To further that you have Republicans in Congress who have spent two years claiming you cant do anything without paying for it fully, demanding permanence of those Bush tax cuts without paying a dime towards them and adding 4 TRILLION dollars to the debt. This applies to Blue Dog and labeled Conservadems as well.

The claim that taxes have been raised on anyone under the Obama administration to this point is such a joke that it isn’t even funny. The same people complaining about how bad taxes are forget to mention that all working families under 250,000 a year got a tax cut, that small business taxes continue to get cut and to protect the rich, Republicans would rather let those tax cuts on middle class families die then pass them without get the rich ones too.

Health care reform is an issue that causes consternation on the right and a degree of apathy on the left. On the right the claims of higher costs are legitimate in the short term, but the scare tactics ones are not. On the left the historic advancement is viewed with scorn for not going further to fixing the problems in the system. Both sides have their arguments to be made but the funniest thing to me is watching Democrats run from all the good in health care while they voted for it and Republicans run on all the good in the health care bill while they voted against it. The biggest problem for me with the health care bill is not the lack of a public option or even an early buy in to medicare, but that to play the political game in terms of the budget/deficit numbers many of the most important elements don’t kick in for 3 more years. That in many respects is the Democrats problem because it is tough to run on a reform that doesn’t feel like it is fixing the problem, because it isn’t in affect yet to show positive effects.

Personally a divided government for me is not a bad idea and is one I have believed in for many years. The problem with my theory of divided government and what we already have in this government is that it requires a willingness to actually work together. The appeal to divided government for many is that it helps to balance the extremes on both sides and forces outcomes that end up in the middle, either slightly center-left or center-right. That simply will not be the case with the way the government is running already. If anyone thinks we don’t already have a divided government simply based on the abusing of the filibuster requirements in the Senate, then they have been asleep the last 21 months. Divided government is an idea based on majority rule with minority rights so that the “loser” is not subjected to the tyranny of the majority.

In order for elections to have real consequences though there must not be a tyranny by the minority as we have seen the last two years. I am not at all arguing that when an election happens the minority should lie down and let the majority do whatever it wants. What I am arguing though is an election big or small sets a vision each candidate has for where to take their role in the country and in 2008 the vision pushed by Barack Obama and the Democrats resoundingly won in the eyes of the American voting public. Republicans certainly were not supposed to be happy about that nor were they to green light everything the new President wanted. The flip side though was they were not supposed to pout and take the ball and go home deciding that politics was more important than solving problems. You have a problem with the stimulus, get your feet dirty and work to fix it. You have a problem with health care, get in there and work to solve it. This idea that you can say no to everything and hold the ball until the next election while simultaneously saying that the other “guys” didn’t solve your problems is a farce. The bigger problem is that it appears they will be rewarded for it and if you think the gridlock of the last two years was bad and nothing got done, just wait until rewards come for the behavior. Do you think they will then want to actually work on solving problems or do they just rinse and repeat hoping for even more rewards in Congress and control of the White House in 2012? Does anyone think Democrats wont try the same playbook if they lose the House and/or Senate?

The biggest problem I have seen on both sides in the last two years is there is no more honest debate in this country. It is all scare tactics, fear mongering in order to set up a political play. Maybe my bias sees it as coming more frequently from the right than the left, but it has clearly happened on both sides and until our politicians stop playing politics and start doing the people’s work again this country cannot fully recover.