Overall, the public remains divided in its opinion of the law with 41 percent approving and 41 percent disapproving, with 18 percent undecided.

But the number of Democrats who said they had a very favorable view of the law jumped from 31 percent in May to 47
percent. The intensity of Republican opposition remained high, with 64 percent holding a very unfavorable view.

While 70 percent of all Americans say that the court’s upholding of the law won’t impact their decision on whether to vote in November, 31 percent of Republicans and 27 percent of independents who lean Republican said the decision would motivate them to go to the polls. By comparison, less than 20% of Democrats, Democratic-leaning independents and non-leaning independents said the court decision might change the likelihood of whether they vote.

A majority (56 percent) of those surveyed said opponents should stop their efforts to lock the law and move on to other issues now that the court has ruled.Eighty-two percent of Democrats and 78 percent of Democratic-leaning independents hold that view, as do 51 percent of non-leaning independents. But 69% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents want to continue the fight to stop the law from being implemented.

The closely-divided public opinion on the Court’s ruling was also reflected in two other polls.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted June 28-July 1 found 40 percent approving of the decision while 36 percent disapproved, with 24% in the “don’t know” column. Pew also found that only 55 percent believed the court upheld most of the law’s provisions while 15 percent said the court rejected them, and 30 percent said they didn’t know.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll, also conducted June 28-July 1, in which 50 percent agreed with the decision and 49 percent did not. Forty-eight percent described themselves as enthusiastic or pleased, and 51 percent were displeased or angry.

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The survey, conducted April 4-15, finds that nearly all of the increase in polarization has occurred during the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush. In Obama’s case, that was also illustrated by a Gallup analysis last January that found a historically high gap for 2011 between Republicans and Democrats when it came to his job approval ratings — 80 percent of Democrats approved compared to 12 percent of Republicans. Gallup found similarly high gaps for Bush.

The Pew survey, which has been updated 14 times since its inception, includes questions across 48 political values.

The survey found that there was not only increased polarization between Republicans and Democrats, but among independents whose numbers now surpass those of voters who identify with one of the two major parties. Independents who say they lean — but are not committed to — either party have grown further apart from each other, particularly in their views on the role and effectiveness of government.

The polarization has brought about a political landscape in which Pew says “both parties have become smaller and more ideologically homogeneous. Republicans are dominated by conservatives, while a smaller but growing number of Democrats are liberals. Among Republicans, conservatives continue to outnumber moderates by about two-to-one. And there are now as many liberal Democrats as moderate Democrats.”

The overarching dynamics in the divide is what Pew describes as the Republicans’ “increasingly minimalist views” about the role of government and lack of support for environmentalism, while Democrats have become more socially liberal and secular.

As to what it means for the upcoming presidential campaign, Pew says the largest divides between committed supporters of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are over the scope of government in the economic realm, with swing voters tilting to Romney on some values and to Obama on others.

Seventy-seven percent of Republicans say that when something is run by government it is usually wasteful and inefficient compared to 41 percent of Democrats who hold that view.

This finding provides a backdrop for one of the biggest divides found in the survey: support for the social safety net. Three-quarters (76%) of Republicans reject the idea that “government should help more needy people even if it means going deeper in debt,” an increase of 15 points since 2007. Sixty-three percent of Republicans disagree with the idea that government should guarantee every citizen enough to eat and a place to sleep and 54 percent reject the idea that government should take care of people who can’t take care of themselves. Republican opinion was more divided on those question in 2009.

By contrast, 65 percent of Democrats say there should be more support for the needy even if it means running up more debt. Three-quarters agree the government should take care of those who can’t take care of themselves, and 78 percent believe the government should provide basic food and shelter for the needy.

Independents are about evenly divided on the safety net issue, but that reflects a conservative shift when judged against past political values surveys.

Another deeply divisive issue is government regulation of business, according to the survey. Seventy-six percent of Republicans say government regulation of business does more harm than good compared to just 41 percent of Democrats.As recently as 2007, an identical percentage of Republicans and Democrats (57 percent) said government regulation did more harm than good.

Divides over environmental restrictions are a key element of the regulation divide. Pew says its new survey shows, for the first time, that only about half (47 percent) of Republicans agree with the statement that there need to be “stricter laws and regulations to protect the environment.” That’s a drop of 17 points since 2009. More than nine-in-10 (93 percent) of Democrats support tighter government regulation on environmental matters.

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Romney leads Obama by 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 points. Both are also only a point apart when it comes to those who say their decision on who to support is definite.

As other recent polls have shown, part of Romney’s strength is that he matches up evenly with Obama on two of the issues that voters rank the highest: jobs and the economy. Obama edges Romney by 48 percent to 46 percent on jobs, while Romney leads Obama 48 percent to 45 percent on the economy. The rest either answered “both,” neither” or “unsure.”

However, Obama leads Romney by double-digit margins in three areas: standing up for the middle class, foreign policy and sharing voters’ values.

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Romney leads Obama by 44 percent to 43 percent in Florida and Obama edges Romney by 44 percent to 42 percent in Ohio. The remainder in each case is undecided. The margin of error is 2.9 points.

Quinnipiac polled a third swing state, Pennsylvania, and put Obama ahead there by 47 percent to 39 percent.

Florida voters believe Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama by a 49 percent to 40 percent margin, with 11 percent undecided. Ohio voters prefer Romney on the economy by 47 percent to 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided. In Pennsylvania, the two candidates are about even with Obama at 44 percent and Romney at 43 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

Those results come against a backdrop in which two-thirds or more of voters in each state believe the U.S. is still in a recession. Fifty-one percent in Florida, 55 percent in Ohio and 56 percent in Pennsylvania believe, however, that the economy is beginning to recover.

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Gallup put the emphasis on the job approval figure because “all incumbent presidents since Eisenhower who were at or above 50% approval at the time of the election were re-elected.” Obama’s ratings had been in the mid-40s in the last three months.

As for Obama’s lead over Romney, Gallup said it was his biggest so far this year. An important factor was the mood of independent voters who, during the April 11-15 period, favored Romney by 45 percent to 39 percent, but now give Obama a very slight 45 percent to 43 percent edge. The margin of error is 3 points.

“Several key indicators of election outcomes, such as Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States and their confidence in the economy, are low from a historical perspective,” Gallup added. “However, they are improved from where they were late last year and early this year.”

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(Credit: Romney Campaign photo)

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted April 13-17 finds that 33 percent of those surveyed view Romney favorably while 36 percent regard him negatively — not great numbers, but better than March when 28 percent had a positive view of him compared to 39 percent who saw him negatively. (President Obama is seen favorably by 48 percent and unfavorably by 39 percent).

One factor driving the better numbers is that Republicans began to fall in behind Romney after his last competitive opponent, Rick Santorum, dropped out. The poll said that since then, Romney’s favorable rating among conservatives had risen from 22 percent last month to 41 percent. The poll also found that Romney was recovering strength among traditional Republican voters such as men in the South, white voters, white-collar voters, white working class voters, suburban voters and white Midwesterners.

Polling analyst Nate Silver, in his article “Do Romney’s Favorability Ratings Matter?“, argues that Romney’s poor numbers up to now are not a “death sentence” but could become meaningful if the favorability gap between himself and Obama still exists closer to election day.

As far as the general election match-up, the WSJ/NBC News survey put Obama ahead of Romney by 49 percent to 43 percent, just within the +/- 3.1 percent margin of error.

Romney showed strength in the poll when measured against Obama on who could improve the economy, while Obama benefited by being seen as the choice who would protect the middle-class.

A big advantage for Obama in the poll is the gender gap: while 44 percent of men see him favorably compared to 42 percent who do not, it’s a far different case with women. Fifty-one percent regard Obama favorably compared to 37 percent who do not.

The trend towards better favorability numbers for Romney is somewhat echoed in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 11-17 which found 33 percent regarding Romney favorably and 38 percent unfavorably. In late February, Romney was seen favorably by 35 percent, but the number of those seeing him unfavorably was higher at 43 percent. (As with the Journal/NBC News poll, the remainder expressed no opinion). Obama is seen unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 45 percent.

In the presidential horse race, Quinnipiac’s findings are much the same as other recent national polls had Obama and Romney in a close race. Obama leads Romney by 46 percent to 42 percent with 11 percent undecided or preferring other options.

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Twenty-six percent of those surveyed picked Rice, who was followed by Rick Santorum at 21 percent, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Rubio tied at 14 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 points.

But emblematic of the ideological divide in the party, Rubio is the pick of 22 percent of tea party supporters in the GOP, followed by Christie at 18 percent, with Rice and Santorum tied for third.

On the flip side when non-tea party Republicans are asked, Rice’s support goes up to 36 percent.

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A new Pew Research Center poll conducted April 4-15, which finds public support for the U.S. military presence at a record low, also contains some numbers that illustrate Romney’s dilemma.

Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Obama supporters want a troop withdrawal as quickly as possible, while Republicans are more divided: 49 percent favor a quick withdrawal while 43 percent want to keep U.S. troops in that country until it is stable.

But the key figures are those for swing voters: 59 percent want the troops out as soon as possible compared to 31 percent who want them to remain until there is stability.

Overall, 60 percent of Americans want to remove troops as soon as possible compared to 32 percent who want them to stay for now.

Only 38 percent of those surveyed believed that the military effort in Afghanistan was going very or fairly well.

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A new New York Times/CBS News poll conducted April 13-17 also found that 54 percent of Republican primary voters want him to be the party’s standard-bearer, an improvement from March when only 30 percent said so. However, 40 percent of Republicans said they had reservations about Romney compared to 33 percent who supported him “enthusiastically.” Those with reservations were mostly white evangelicals, conservatives and tea party movement supporters.

In March, Obama had a slight 47 percent to 44 percent lead over Romney.

The Times/CBS News poll is in line with two other recent surveys.

A Pew Research Center poll conducted April 4-15 had Obama leading Romney 49 percent to 45 percent, down from a 12 point advantage he enjoyed in March. The margin of error was 2.1 points. Gallup’s first daily tracking poll on an Obama-Romney race had Romney ahead 47 percent to 45 percent. Its margin of error was 3 points. In both cases, the remainder of voters were undecided.

Ironically, while the Pew poll and a Washington Post/ABC News survey a week earlier suggested that the economy was an Obama vulnerability because Romney ran evenly with him on handling that and the jobs issue, the Times/CBS News poll found improvement in the public’s view of Obama’s performance on the economy.

Forty- eight percent disapproved of Obama’s handling of the economy while 44 percent approved. In March, 54 percent disapproved compared to 39 percent who approved. Obama’s disapproval rate on the issue had been above 50 percent in the Times/CBS News poll since September 2010.

However, Americans’ approval of Obama’s handling of Afghanistan sunk to a 43 percent to 42 percent margin (with 14 percent expressing no opinion) compared to 51 percent to 36 percent in February. That coincided with a Pew Research Center poll published Wednesday finding that only 38 percent of the public thought the U.S. military effort was going well after several setbacks in recent months.

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That underlines a point that Pew Research Center president Andrew Kohut made in a piece on the New York Times website on Tuesday in which he wrote, “Obama and Romney both carry so much political baggage that one or the other will have to defy modern political history to win in November.” For Romney, the problem is his personal favorability ratings are lower than any candidate who has won the presidency. For Obama, the challenge is that “no incumbent president has ever won re-election with unemployment rates as high as they are likely to be in November.”

Obama’s lead over Romney in the April 4-15 Pew poll stands at 49 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 2.1 points.

Last month, Obama had led Romney by 54 percent to 42 percent, and by 52 percent to 44 percent in February.

Eighty-six percent of voters said the issue most important to their vote was the economy and 84 percent said the same about jobs. The top three following that were the budget deficit (74 percent), health care (74 percent), and education (72 percent).

At the bottom of voters’ agendas are some of the social issues that became hot-buttons this year — gay marriage and birth control, (the latter issue being one that was sparked by an Obama administration rule that, in its original form, required religious-related institutions to provide health coverage to employees for contraception).

Last week’s Post/ABC News poll gave Obama a bigger lead over Romney — 51 percent to 44 percent — Romney was more trusted than Obama on handling the economy by a 47 percent to 43 percent margin. On jobs, Obama had a bare lead of 46 percent to 43 percent over Romney.

The Pew poll also had the two men closely matched on these issues. Obama had a 48 percent to 44 percent advantage over Romney on the economy, while Romney edged Obama 48 percent to 47 percent on jobs.

The bigger issue gaps between them were on health care (voters preferred Obama by 54 percent to 39 percent) and handling the budget deficit, (Romney led Obama by 57 percent to 38 percent).

Now that the GOP nomination contest is all but settled, 65 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they will unite behind Romney. But Pew found that the enthusiasm of Republicans is limited: even though his last major opponent, Rick Santorum, suspended his campaign, Romney is the choice for the nomination of 45 percent of Republicans while 46 percent would like to see Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul or someone else get the nomination.

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