Portality

2008-03-30T21:55:00.001-07:00

Considering how infrequent my posts have become (and how outdated blogging has become), this will be my last post.

I'll leave you with my usual late March posts:

Baseball bets:

Tampa Bay over 75 wins
Seattle under 84 wins

March Madness bracket update:

I had Louisville, Texas, Kansas, and UCLA in my Final 4, but if Kansas beats North Carolina on Saturday, I'm going to be in the money of my company's office pool anyway. Go Jayhawks!

2008-02-05T14:46:00.001-08:00

One of my co-workers apparently has a lot of time. Here's something he wrote up about Cal basketball.

Dear Abby,

I’ve been in a on-again, off-again relationship with Ben Braun and his Cal Golden Bears for nearly 12 years. Things started off great. In his first year, Ben swept me off my feet – taking Cal to the Sweet 16 and winning Pac10 Coach of the Year. I really thought he was The One, and that we’d live happily ever after. But since then, it’s been a roller coaster relationship.

What’s most painful is that I keep having my hopes raised, only to have them subsequently dashed. In the last decade, Ben has taken me to the NCAA tournament five times – only to lose in the 1st or 2nd round each time.

He has promised me contention for the Pac10 title a few times, and we’ve gotten close before, but he’s never been able to deliver. In 2004, he brought in a top 10 recruiting class with two McDonalds All-Americans. We had losing records the next two years.

This year has been more of the same. Braun got my hopes up by going 9-2 in the non-conference schedule, and beating #22 USC in the opening conf game. But then he lowered the boom – three straight down-to-the-wire losses on our home floor against good but beatable competition. Sick of the heartbreak, I finally broke it off one more (hopefully last) time.

But Ben is back at it again. He promises he has changed. He promises things will be different this time. He even brought me two road victories over the Washington schools.

My mother and all my friends say to cut him loose – he’s a nice guy, but he’ll never bring home the bacon, and you’ll be left heartbroken again and again. Abby, I am torn. Please help me. What would you advise me to do?

Signed,

Afraid to Hope Again

Dear Afraid,

One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a difference outcome. Ben has had 12 years to prove himself to you, but has never been able to deliver what you are looking for in this relationship.

For a little perspective, consider the other BCS girls out there who’ve been steady with the same guy for 11+ years:

Current Coaches at Same BCS-Conference School Since 1996
Jim Boeheim (Syracuse, since 1976)
Mike Krzyzewski (Duke, since 1980)
Lute Olson (Arizona, since 1983)
Jim Calhoun (Connecticut, since 1986)
Gary Williams (Maryland, since 1989)
Ben Braun (California, since 1996)
Billy Donovan (Florida, since 1996)
Tom Izzo (Michigan State, since 1996)

Besides your Ben, the other seven coaches have all won National Championships. Not just conference championships and Final Four appearances, but the whole enchilada.

College basketball’s a ‘win or go home’ world, and most coaches end up going home. By this measure, your patience with Braun has been just shy of masochistic.

My advice: let him go. Protect your heart. It’s never going to happen with Braun, so don’t waste valuable emotion, time, and energy on him. Cutting him loose will hurt in the short term, but will save you untold pain and suffering into the future.

Better to start fresh. Mr. Right is out there – you might as well start looking now.

Abby

2008-02-01T15:29:00.000-08:00

Is it just me, or is Bill Simmons' next NBA article already written for him?

Let's start with the headline found on ESPN:

Grizzlies trade Gasol for Lakers' Brown

This has to be one of the most startling sports headlines I've ever read.

It took me about 15 seconds for me to get over the amazement of that headline.

One of the best low post players in the NBA for one of the biggest busts in NBA history?

Reading the article, you realize that the Lakers gave up the following:
- Kwame Brown, AKA Kwame Brown's expiring contract
- A retired player (Aaron McKie, for salary cap purposes)
- Tommie Aaron/Dom DiMaggio/Billy Ripken, I mean, Pau's brother Marc
- More than half of their draft picks between 2007 and 2010 (2 in '07, 1 in '08, 2 in '10)
- And some more cash

2008-01-28T19:11:00.000-08:00

Today for work, I went to a training by Edward Tufte on the best way to present data.

One of the things Tufte encourages is the use of sparklines, small graphs that are very efficient because they store a large quantity of time series data in a small amount of space.

Here's a book excerpt about sparklines.

2008-01-25T00:14:00.000-08:00

DVDs I own:

TV shows:

The Wire: Seasons 1 - 4
Arrested Development: The Complete Series
Family Guy: Volumes 1 - 3
The Office: Seasons 1 & 3
The Simpsons: Season 8

Movies:
Office Space
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby
The Simpsons Movie

Sports:
2002 Angels World Championship

The Wire and Arrested Development are the only 2 DVDs I've ever paid for; I've received all of the others as gifts.

2008-01-17T09:30:00.000-08:00

I wrote up the following quiz on facebook about FICO scores.

1) How many FICO scores does a person have?

A) 1
B) 2
C) 3
D) 4

2) The median US FICO score is:

A) 660
B) 680
C) 700
D) 720

3) Which of the following does NOT affect your FICO score?

A) Gross income
B) Requests for new credit
C) Your adverse public record info
D) Collection agency accounts

4) Which of the following likely affects your FICO score MOST?

A) Amount owed on credit cards
B) Number of credit cards with balances
C) Difference of credit limits minus amount owed
D) Ratio of amount owed / credit limits

5) Which of the following likely affects your FICO score MOST?

A) Time since oldest credit account opened
B) Time since most recent credit account opened
C) Time since oldest credit account opened on active accounts
D) Time since most recent credit account opened on active accounts

6) Which of the following likely affects your FICO score MOST?

A) When your first late payment was
B) When your last late payment was
C) Average length of time your payments are late
D) How many times your payments have been late

7) Which of the following most likely affects your FICO score?

A) Checking your credit report or FICO score
B) Searching for a credit card in the last month
C) Searching for a mortgage in the last month
D) Searching for an auto loan in the last month

8) Which of the following is likely to improve your FICO score?

A) Consolidating debt
B) Closing inactive credit cards
C) Opening new credit cards
D) None of the above

9) Which federally-mandated website allows you to check your credit report for free?

A) credit.com
B) creditreport.com
C) annualcreditreport.com
D) freecreditreport.com

10) Which website has the most useful information about FICO scores?

A) credit.com
B) creditscore.com
C) fairisaac.com
D) myfico.com

11) Which of the following do you need to receive a valid FICO score?

A) An account opened 6 or more months ago
B) An account updated in last 6 months
C) All of the above
D) None of the above

12) What is the commonly-sited FICO score range?

A) 400 - 900
B) 300 - 850
C) 100 - 900
D) 0 - 99

13) Over the life of a 36 month $25K auto loan, approximately how much more will you pay if your FICO score is 660 instead of 720?

A) 656
B) 1656
C) 3656
D) 5656

Correct answers can be found in this post's comments.

2008-01-15T13:49:00.000-08:00

Rough day.

DeSean Jackson is leaving for the NFL, which isn't too surprising.

In other news, my company stock dropped 19% today, one of the market's biggest declines today.

Since yesterday: 19% decline
Since the beginning of the year: 28% decline
Since mid-November: 43% decline

I participate in our company's stock purchase plan, where we get a 15% discount on shares at the beginning of each 6 month period. It took less than 10 business days for my shares to fall below that 15% break-even point.

Worst part about this is that I actually put in a limit order a couple times last week to sell my shares. I put the limit barely above the market price but my shares were never sold... Argh... that's what I get for not selling my shares right away...

2008-01-06T20:50:00.000-08:00

Season 5 of The Wire started today, and since our apartment recently got HBO, I'll be able to keep up during this season. It was less than a year ago that I was reading the reviews and contemplating watching the series.

Since then, I've seen all 4 seasons and it's the best television series I've ever seen.

The thing that stands out about the show is that there are so many great characters that are developed with tremendous detail, even if they only have minor roles.

The other great thing about the show is that the stories aren't one-sided and don't have Hollywood endings. Instead, the show paints a vivid picture about the challenges that cops, drug dealers, port workers, politicians, teachers, students, or reporters might have in a city where resources are very limited and your reward for making the right choice is to get shot in the leg.

As you can imagine, the show isn't for everyone. The show can be chilling at times and you sometimes start to wonder how reforms ever overcome the obstacles of stagnancy in any walk of life.

Since the story is told with such detail, the pace is slower than other dramas, and your gratification is usually delayed.

And it's a much richer experience if you can start from Season 1 so that you understand everyone's character in context. But of course, it's pretty difficult to commit to watching 50 hours of TV for the first 4 seasons and it's not like everyone has the DVDs easily accessible.

Still, if you have the time, access, patience, and mental fortitude, it's an investment that grows over time. And yes, I realize I'm talking about a TV show...

2007-12-28T12:19:00.000-08:00

Since I'm sick and not quite in the holiday spirit, here's a list of my least favorite sports teams. There's usually one reason for why I don't like the team very much.

1) Texas Longhorns
Mack Brown's whining enabled them to steal votes and prevent Cal from going to the Rose Bowl in 2004. And please don't tell me about what happened in the bowl games, since that's irrelevant to how the teams were chosen.

2) Los Angeles Dodgers
Frank McCourt's spineless firing of Paul DePodesta showed everyone that his most trusted advisors are media hacks like Bill Plaschke.

3) Los Angeles Lakers
Kobe Bryant: the reason for the dismantling of a 3-time champion, the rape charges, the trade demands...

4) USC Trojans
Pac-10 players shouldn't get paid as if they're in the NFL.

5) New York Yankees
Mainly because the media is obsessed with them. And anyone who thinks Scott Brosius is more valuable than Alex Rodriguez doesn't understand the definition of value.

6) Stanford Cardinal
Normally, they would be higher, but even when we lost to them, it was more because of our failures than anything they did.

7) LSU Tigers
Les Miles' complaints about the Pac-10 or how his team is undefeated in regulation put this team on the list.

8) New England Patriots
Bill Belichick, spygate, tuck rule...

2007-12-15T01:24:00.000-08:00

Today at work, our department had a Mas Macho Burrito Challenge. We knew that the consulting group already tried this challenge and that 5 of their 6 participants were able to finish. So a few of us went to try to claim the title for our department.

Here's what we were assigned to finish at lunch in one sitting:

The Mas Macho burrito has meat (in my case, carnitas), beans, rice, cheese, sour cream, guacamole, sour cream, and sauce in 2 layers of tortillas.

Note the size of the pepper dispenser and sugar packets in comparison to the burrito. I wouldn't be surprised if this was about 5000 calories.

Unfortunately, one of the guys couldn't finish, so we only had 4 out of 5 people in our group finish. Not wanting to fall short of the other group, 3 of us decided to one-up the other group by adding a taco onto our order.

So 3 of us finished one Mas Macho burrito and one taco, each. It's definitely the most I can remember eating in a long time, and I'm still full from the meal (over 12 hours later).

The things we do for departmental pride...

2007-12-11T16:20:00.000-08:00

Currently eating...

Tastes like...

Eating it with soy milk. The best part about soy milk is that it takes a lot longer to expire, so you don't have to throw it away if you can't finish it in a week.

2007-12-05T23:06:00.000-08:00

The Angels didn't land Miguel Cabrera, who got traded to Detroit. From rumored reports, it appears that the Angels were not willing to give up 4 players in exchange for Cabrera-- probably Howie Kendrick, Jeff Mathis, and 2 pitchers (maybe Nick Adenhart and Ervin Santana).

At this point, the Angels are in a tough spot. While the Angels have a pretty good farm system, it's time for them to start playing for the present instead of the future since most of the team's best prospects have already graduated to the majors. And what they need in the present is a power hitter. And no, Torii Hunter isn't the answer.

Even as I'm writing this, I'm still not sure if the Angels should've pulled the trigger on a 4-for-1 trade for Cabrera. I can definitely see the arguments both ways:

Pros of making the trade:

As I mentioned, the Angels should be in win-now mode since their outfield is old and the pitching is as good as it's going to be in the next few years. Obviously, the Angels chances of winning the World Series in the next 2 years increase significantly if they trade for Cabrera.

By trading for him, the Angels would've had a much better chance of locking Cabrera to a long term deal. The team that gets the best player in a trade usually gets the better end of the deal, and Cabrera would probably be the best player in the trade over the long run.

Cons of making the trade:

Giving up 24 years of price-controlled service (4 players times 6 years of service time before the player becomes a free agent) for 2 years of Miguel Cabrera is a lot to give up.

And who's to say that Kendrick wouldn't be the most valuable commodity in the deal, at least financially? If he hits .310 with doubles power (which he already did at age 23), he's going to be paid about $20 million less than his market value. That's more than the savings they'd have on Cabrera, who's going to make more than $10 million this year. Plus, the Angels may be able to sign Cabrera in 2 years if they still want him then.

2007-11-20T10:58:00.000-08:00

Korean-American athlete alert!

Hyun Choi "Hank" Conger is from Huntington Beach and was the Angels' first round pick in 2006.

This 19 year old prospect could be the Angels' starting catcher by 2010 and has the potential to be one of the better hitting catchers in the world.

And he's funny, too... here's a YouTube clip of his campaign to become high school president. Despite his Orange County background, he has a liberal stance on issues such as gay marriage and abortion. Haha...

Yes, I wish I was Hank Conger.

2007-11-18T21:19:00.000-08:00

We've gone to karaoke on Friday night for the last 3 weeks.

Here are my go-to songs:

Don't Stop Me Now, Queen
Don't Look Back In Anger, Oasis
Creep, Radiohead
Somewhere Only We Know, Keane
Drive, Incubus

2007-11-14T15:40:00.000-08:00

Currently playing Scrabulous...

This is the board of my come-from-ahead loss to Basile.

The one thing I don't like about playing Scrabble online is that you can easily cheat...

2007-11-01T10:10:00.001-07:00

For those of you who didn't know what Allen, Basile, and I were dressed up as yesterday, here's the movie poster for The Darjeeling Limited.

I was also told that I look like this kid. I feel bad for the kid... haha...

More Hallelujah Night pictures on Basile's flickr.

2007-10-17T11:34:00.000-07:00

The guys who do statistical analysis for baseball started a website for college basketball, www.basketballprospectus.com

It’s pretty cool, and they have their Pac-10 preview published online.

Team	2007 Pythagorean Wins	% Returning Minutes	2008 Prediction
UCLA	14.4	81.4	14-4
Stanford	10.3	82.0	12-6
Washington St	12.9	80.5	11-7
Arizona	11.4	48.9	10-8
USC	11.3	48.4	9-9
Washington	7.9	71.1	9-9
California	5.7	79.5	8-10
Oregon	9.5	77.4	8-10
Arizona St	4.4	78.8	6-12
Oregon St	2.8	46.2	3-13

CALIFORNIA

What California did well: Get assists from their point guards.

Ayinde Ubaka finished up a four-year career as starting point guard at Cal with what was his easily his best season. He posted his best numbers in two-point and three-point shooting while shooting more frequently than in his previous three seasons. He made the transition from being a pass-first, shoot-rarely point guard as a freshman and sophomore to a dynamic offensive threat in his senior season. He wasn't overly selfish, as he managed to assist on about a quarter of his teammates' baskets, also the highest mark of his career.

While Ubaka's career was admirable, his backup last season should end up having a better career. Casual fans, especially ones who don't live in the Pacific time zone, are probably not familiar with Jerome Randle. That will change this season. Randle was able to take some minutes from Ubaka last season, and in his time on the floor he assisted on more of his teammates' made baskets than did the starter. Randle wasn't as efficient as Ubaka on offense--he was only able to shoot 46.1% (eFG)--but an encouraging sign for Cal fans was that Randle was able to take 22.2% of his team's shots while on the court. It's encouraging because Randle is listed at 5'9", so you'd expect him to have some trouble getting off his shot. It's also encouraging because so few freshmen point guards shoot and distribute as much as Randle did. The list from the last three seasons includes only two other point guards from power conferences: Dominic James in 2006 and Javaris Crittenton in 2007.

What we learned in 2007: DeVon Hardin's value is disproportionately on defense.

One of the worst breaks for any Pac-10 team in 2007 was when Cal lost junior center DeVon Hardin to a broken foot 11 games into the season. There was some uncertainty surrounding what Hardin would do during his third season in Berkeley. Cal power forward Leon Powe had the highest usage of any Pac-10 player in 2006, then took off for the NBA. Hardin emerged alongside Powe as an elite defensive rebounder and a very good shot blocker. Hardin also quietly made advances in his offensive game. So with no Powe, what would Hardin's game look like in '07? In what little we saw of him, his defensive game was identical to his sophomore season. (In truth, his sophomore defensive rebounding and blocks numbers weren't a surprise; his rate stats were identical to his freshman season when he played more sparingly.) Offensively, Hardin picked up some of the slack that Powe left in terms of usage, but against a fairly weak non-conference schedule, he still couldn't get his shooting percentage to 50%.

It's clearer to compare Cal's performance in terms of points per possession against the Pac-10 in 2006 and 2007.

Year OE DE

2006 1.02 0.98

2007 1.03 1.12

Cal's offense was about as effective even without Powe, but the defense took a major hit, and was the reason for the Bears' drop in the conference standings in 2007. Powe was an effective defender, but no doubt, the absence of DeVon Hardin was at least equally to blame for Cal's poor defense in '07.

What's in store for 2008: If we could gaze into the crystal ball and know that Coach Ben Braun could count on the health of his roster this season, then there would be reason for optimism in Berkeley. They absolutely need their defense to improve significantly, and that's not going to happen without DeVon Hardin in the lineup for 25-30 minutes per game. With Hardin on the bench (or in the trainer's room), Cal would have to rely on either 7'0" Jordan Wilkes, who sat out last season with an eight minutes a game in '07 while being one of the most reluctant shooters in the conference.

With all the big bodies, the Bears won't have to do what they did last season: play 6'10" Ryan Anderson in the middle, where he struggled defensively. In a throwaway season, Anderson was one of the most productive freshmen in the nation, at least on the offensive end. However, his production dropped after Hardin went down. This was almost surely due to the coinciding increase in competition and improved scouting rather than the nominal change in position. Anderson continued to base much of his game on the perimeter during the conference season, but his three-point FG% dropped from 46 to 34% without Hardin in the lineup. Likewise, his two-point FG% dropped from 57 to 51%. Much is expected of Anderson this season, but there is plenty of room for improvement in his game.

Cal still lacks a dynamic scorer from the wing or shooting guard positions. They'll be looking at some combination of juniors Omar Wilkes and Theo Robertson, and sophomore Patrick Christopher, to get most of the minutes at that position, but none was a very effective scorer in 2006. Wilkes is the most dangerous, posting an eFG% of 55.3 while taking 19.9% of his team's shots. Robertson is recovering from leg surgery that has kept him off the court all summer. Cal also brings in Duke transfer Jamal Boykin, who will be eligible for the second semester. By virtue of his being a Duke transfer, expectations are too high for Boykin. He played 100 minutes during his Duke career, took 19 shots and committed 21 fouls.

Then there's the point position. Randle is a good darkhorse pick to beat out Darren Collison for the conference's assist title. He has a few things going for him. He has already demonstrated the ability to distribute. His two most prolific scoring teammates, Anderson and Hardin, have microscopic assist rates, indicating their singular focus of putting the ball in the hoop when they get it. Finally, Randle should get huge minutes. Two years ago, Ubaka played 37 minutes per game when he was the only point guard Braun trusted. Randle should be in a similar situation in 2008.

Randle's assist total will be a good indicator for Cal's success. If Anderson and Hardin can convert passes into baskets more often than they have previously in their career, Cal's offense will be one of the better ones in the conference, and Randle's assist total will soar. Combine that with a respectable defense, and the Bears season will have some intrigue into March.

2007-10-10T21:51:00.000-07:00

Here are the results of my pre-season baseball bets:

Chicago White Sox under 87.5 wins
Chicago White Sox - 72 wins

I thought the White Sox offense would "regress back toward the mean", but they did more than that. They were last in the AL in runs scored.

Arizona Diamondbacks over 78.5 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks win NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks - 90 wins, won NL West

I correctly predicted that the Diamondbacks would be this year's Detroit Tigers, but I can't take too much credit for this since I didn't expect them to do so while being outscored by their opponents.

Los Angeles Dodgers under 88.5 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers - 82 wins

Here was my comment before the season started:
"The Dodgers had one of the best offenses in the NL last year, but I don't see how they're going to repeat that if they choose to play Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez over more talented players like Matt Kemp. Randy Wolf and Brett Tomko don't inspire much confidence at the back of the rotation."

The Dodgers were 10th out of 16 NL teams in runs scored.
Juan Pierre: 668 AB, .685 OPS
Luis Gonzalez: 464 AB, .793 OPS
Matt Kemp: 292 AB, .894 OPS
Randy Wolf: 102.7 IP, 4.73 ERA
Brett Tomko: 104.0 IP, 5.80 ERA

So that's 3 for 3 for my team over/unders, and none of these results were that close to the Vegas over/under mark. The Diamondbacks winning the NL West was 7-1.

Takashi Saito under 35.5 saves
Takashi Saito - 39 saves

I thought Saito would lose his closer's role, but I was totally wrong.

Justin Verlander under 15.5 wins
Justin Verlander - 18 wins

I thought Verlander would 1) pitch worse, 2) get less run support, 3) get less defensive support, and 4) get injured. I was wrong on all 4 counts.

0 for 2 for my player over/unders, with analysis that turned out to be wrong in every way possible.

I also made the following postseason bets:

Chicago Cubs to win division series against Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona won series 3-0

The Cubs seemed to have the advantage in starting pitching and offense before the series, but it sure didn't turn out that way.

Cleveland Indians to win division series against New York Yankees
Cleveland won series 3-1

Betting on Cleveland paid out $16 more for every $10 wagered. I thought Cleveland was a slight favorite going into the series, so this was an easy bet to make.

2007-10-04T23:03:00.001-07:00

This is an actual work email chain that I was CC'ed on. My boss was also included on this email chain, and said that these guys are now in "Office Space" mode:

If anything I’ve written here does not jibe with the commentary from y’all below, that’s probably because I only skimmed the attached thread. Because y’all use a teeny-weeny font, which is a strain for us older folks to read. I could’ve highlighted all that text and increased the font size manually – but, yep, I’m too lazy to do so.

Gosh, all this hard thinkin’ has tuckered me out. Nap time……

------------------------------------------------------------------

Is he picking on me because I said I was too lazy to write something up?

Young whipper-snappers.

I hope no one else is scanning these emails to see who's 'fessing up to being lazy.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My boss knows that I haven’t done any actual work since about 1998. These days all I do is read and respond to e-mail, doze through conf calls, and tell other people what to do. It’s a sweet gig.

2007-09-24T22:17:00.000-07:00

Last week at work, we had El Palmar Week. We ate at the same Mexican restaurant every day of the week.

Monday: Chorizo enchilada & marinated pork sope

Tuesday: Breaded fish plate

Wednesday: Chorizo, egg, potato breakfast burrito

Thursday: Shrimp soup

Friday: Breaded shrimp plate

And it's not like I ate any healthier over the weekend:

Saturday: Chicken apple & bratwurst from Top Dog, Chocolate and mint frozen yogurt from Yogurt Park

Sunday: Palace Buffet

Wow... I need to exercise...

2007-09-18T23:33:00.000-07:00

During college football season, I redirect most of the time I used to spend blogging and reading other people's blogs toward reading about Cal football.

So much so, that this is all I have to say. Go Bears!

2007-09-11T00:28:00.001-07:00

Updates since my last post:

-Of course, going to the Cal-Tennessee game was awesome. It was exciting for everyone except Georgia Dave, who still managed to get in a nap during the game.

-Going to Joe's bachelor party in Tahoe. Good times. Mountain biking was nerve-racking since it seemed like we could fall down a cliff at any time with one bad turn...

2007-08-23T22:53:00.000-07:00

Amazing fact of the day:

I know 2 people named Daniel Lee who were born on August 23, 1978, and they both attended KCPC.

EECS Daniel Lee graduated from Cal in 2001, while Daniel Seuk Lee currently attends KCPC.

2007-08-20T10:12:00.000-07:00

Today's sign that I fit in at my company:

3 of us took this baseball trivia quiz last week, and I finished LAST, getting 14 out of 20 questions correct.

My boss got 16 questions right, and another co-worker got 17 right.

2007-08-17T15:47:00.001-07:00

Random notes from this week:

-After reading the lead story of Newsweek magazine, I spent some time on my facebook profile.

-Lots of ping pong and karaoke video games this past week.
-Power hour of karaoke last night after small group games. Good times.

-Jimmy Kimmel spoof on the Bourne Ultimatum.