王伯達的相談室

tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46225791755032750252017-08-02T21:39:19.440+08:00王伯達的相談室投資、閱讀、旅遊、人生王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.comBlogger98125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-12408846044646436602013-04-29T08:30:00.000+08:002013-04-29T08:30:00.757+08:00搬家公告<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GhAVRg7cQPY/UXt3Y1JTzfI/AAAAAAAAAo8/ZtZg9iHZKto/s1600/200915135155524_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GhAVRg7cQPY/UXt3Y1JTzfI/AAAAAAAAAo8/ZtZg9iHZKto/s400/200915135155524_2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">眼見<span lang="EN-US">google reader</span>這麼熱門的服務也被說砍就砍，不知道<span lang="EN-US">blogger</span>這個平台未來會有什麼樣的變化，與其如此，不如早點搬家吧<span lang="EN-US">! </span>我們新家見<span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">新站網址<span lang="EN-US">:</span><span lang="EN-US"> <a href="http://www.potawang.com/">http://www.potawang.com/</a></span></span></div>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-1453171909747367992013-04-08T08:00:00.000+08:002013-04-08T09:35:57.418+08:00《誰把台灣經濟搞砸了》_ 當韓國平均薪資超過台灣1,000美元以後....<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mdgVPrgCNfM/UWFsymBHDgI/AAAAAAAAAoo/Fs8zfxL02EI/s1600/12810937099j3SX0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mdgVPrgCNfM/UWFsymBHDgI/AAAAAAAAAoo/Fs8zfxL02EI/s1600/12810937099j3SX0.jpg"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年底，台灣的平均薪資是新台幣<span lang="EN-US">45,749</span>元，而同一年度韓國的平均薪資換算成台幣則約為<span lang="EN-US">75,595</span>元，若我們以當年度的平均匯率計算，兩者的平均薪資分別為<span lang="EN-US">1,552</span>美元及<span lang="EN-US">2,565</span>美元，南韓的平均薪資領先台灣超過<span lang="EN-US">1,000</span>美元，然而在<span lang="EN-US">1998</span>年，台灣的平均薪資是<span lang="EN-US">1,186</span>美元，韓國是<span lang="EN-US">1,018</span>美元，台灣其實還領先韓國超過<span lang="EN-US">100</span>美元。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">關於這個現像的成因，其實最近新書出版後在<span lang="EN-US">FB</span>上有許多的討論，比如說基本工資的部分。關於基本工資的問題在<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.tw/2013/04/blog-post.html"><span lang="EN-US">上一篇文章</span></a></span>已經有諸多討論，簡單來說調升基本工資不見得可以讓我們領到更多，而調幅過大更可能產生負面的影響，例如失業，關於這點其實從中國沿海省份近年來的工資調整與結果來看就可以很清楚的了解了，勞工出現失業，而企業開始倒閉、經濟成長率沒有更亮眼，當然也沒有實現所謂的產業升級。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/04/1000.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-64479075961237082882013-04-01T08:00:00.001+08:002013-04-01T08:06:45.145+08:00《誰把台灣經濟搞砸了》_基本工資調升了，然後呢？<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0ummwcbwj_s/UVcDF1LY8iI/AAAAAAAAAn0/YeGSZRvUp68/s1600/EC_130225_stantis425x283.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0ummwcbwj_s/UVcDF1LY8iI/AAAAAAAAAn0/YeGSZRvUp68/s1600/EC_130225_stantis425x283.jpg"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">這次的新書《<a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/kinopio/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010580302" target="_blank">誰把台灣經濟搞砸了</a><span lang="EN-US">-</span>解開薪資成長停滯之謎》以台灣薪資停滯的問題作為出發點，分析其成因與未來的演變。其實這樣的問題已經發生了很久，因為從考慮物價後的平均實質薪資來看，<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年的數字竟比<span lang="EN-US">1999</span>年還低。而近年來薪資問題吵得更是厲害，階級對立越演越烈。我因此在自序中便寫了：「這樣的時間一久，我們不僅僅在物質上是匱乏的，整個社會的價值觀也會因此扭曲。」。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">很可惜的目前檯面上的討論都未能切中要點，例如其中花了大家很多時間討論並認為是關鍵因素的基本工資就是如此。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/04/blog-post.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-71361816194340386162013-04-01T08:00:00.000+08:002013-04-01T08:00:05.580+08:00Money雜誌企業策略專欄2013年3月號 - 圖譜搜尋開啟臉書的淘金路<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-z5WcN_wlS6k/URpUyek7pDI/AAAAAAAAAkI/PdTSQE09eiM/s1600/mark-zuckerberg-graph-search-1024x704.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="275" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-z5WcN_wlS6k/URpUyek7pDI/AAAAAAAAAkI/PdTSQE09eiM/s400/mark-zuckerberg-graph-search-1024x704.jpg" width="400"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 18.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">臉書在上月份舉行了自<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月上市以來的第一次大型記者會，會前市場紛紛揣測究竟會推出什麼樣的服務或產品，許多研究機構預測這個擁有<span lang="EN-US">10</span>億用戶的全球最大社群網站將會推出自有品牌的手機，然而最後卻是推出了「圖譜搜尋」<span lang="EN-US">(Graph Search)</span>這項服務，當天，資本市場並沒有給予正面的回應。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 18.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">創新工場的執行長李開復先生在微博表示，「圖譜搜尋」這個名稱太過「技客」是市場反應冷淡的原因，因為一般人或華爾街很難直覺的想像這是什麼樣的產品。然而在網路業界，臉書的「開放圖譜」<span lang="EN-US">(Open Graph)</span>計劃早已為人所熟知，簡單來說，它就是以使用者為中心，去累積個人在臉書上的各種行為紀錄，包括分享、留言、按讚等等，而第三方網站或服務則是可以透過臉書帳號登入、應用程式與粉絲專頁等方式來取得並運用這些資料，臉書也藉此與其他的網站做更緊密的結合。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/04/money20133.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-86031291175825343022013-03-29T08:00:00.000+08:002013-04-01T08:08:16.848+08:00《誰把台灣經濟搞砸了？》前言:一隻手的經濟學家<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Wcv-6EuM0Ao/UVBeShTF7FI/AAAAAAAAAnM/xMzw03hCNlY/s1600/%25E8%25AA%25B0%25E6%258A%258A%25E8%2587%25BA%25E7%2581%25A3%25E7%25B6%2593%25E6%25BF%259F%25E6%2590%259E%25E7%25A0%25B8%25E4%25BA%2586%25E5%25B0%2581%25E9%259D%25A2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Wcv-6EuM0Ao/UVBeShTF7FI/AAAAAAAAAnM/xMzw03hCNlY/s400/%25E8%25AA%25B0%25E6%258A%258A%25E8%2587%25BA%25E7%2581%25A3%25E7%25B6%2593%25E6%25BF%259F%25E6%2590%259E%25E7%25A0%25B8%25E4%25BA%2586%25E5%25B0%2581%25E9%259D%25A2.jpg" width="285"></span></a></div><br><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">前言：一隻手的經濟學家<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">「拚經濟」是台灣政府官員們最常掛在嘴邊的一句話，事實上，不是只有政府在拚經濟，台灣的媒體與民眾也時常熱烈討論經濟議題與政策，不管是貶值刺激出口，還是油價、電價，或是基本工資的問題，幾乎人人都可以發表一番看法，我們可說是舉國上下都在全力拚經濟。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">然而，從近年來停滯不前的薪資、高漲的房價與物價、攀升的青年失業率、低落的企業競爭力，以及積累的債務來看台灣的經濟表現，我們似乎沒有拚出預期中的成果。那麼，究竟是誰把台灣的經濟搞砸了？</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/03/blog-post_29.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-80451242994619351952013-03-28T08:00:00.000+08:002013-03-28T08:00:00.965+08:00《誰把台灣經濟搞砸了？》新書上市 & 自序:為台灣找方向<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Wcv-6EuM0Ao/UVBeShTF7FI/AAAAAAAAAnI/6y-K6lDrmVo/s1600/%E8%AA%B0%E6%8A%8A%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E6%90%9E%E7%A0%B8%E4%BA%86%E5%B0%81%E9%9D%A2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Wcv-6EuM0Ao/UVBeShTF7FI/AAAAAAAAAnI/6y-K6lDrmVo/s400/%E8%AA%B0%E6%8A%8A%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E6%90%9E%E7%A0%B8%E4%BA%86%E5%B0%81%E9%9D%A2.jpg" width="285"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><span style="font-size: large;">預購了一個禮拜的新書《誰把台灣經濟搞砸了？》要正式上市了，這幾天預購的朋友應該就會收到書，而最晚在週末應該就會在實體通路看到，如果沒有看到請向店員詢問，可以加速進貨速度。</span><br><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span><span style="font-size: large;">為什麼要寫這本書的理由，在之前的<a href="http://potawang.blogspot.tw/2013/03/blog-post_19.html" target="_blank">一篇文章</a>曾經提過，如今終於順利出版上市。很感謝天下文化每一位參與這本書的工作人員以及幫忙寫推薦序及掛名推薦的各界賢達，希望大家會喜歡這本書。</span><br><br><br><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/03/blog-post_28.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-52093507674070773112013-03-21T08:00:00.000+08:002013-03-20T22:20:46.032+08:00《誰把台灣經濟搞砸了？》吳惠林老師推薦序_揭開台灣經濟的真相<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5WffHnglD-E/UUnD9K3MH5I/AAAAAAAAAm4/zYgg2A72yug/s1600/%E8%AA%B0%E6%8A%8A%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E6%90%9E%E7%A0%B8%E4%BA%86%E5%B0%81%E9%9D%A2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5WffHnglD-E/UUnD9K3MH5I/AAAAAAAAAm4/zYgg2A72yug/s400/%E8%AA%B0%E6%8A%8A%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E6%90%9E%E7%A0%B8%E4%BA%86%E5%B0%81%E9%9D%A2.jpg" width="285"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;">這次的推薦序，除了<a href="http://potawang.blogspot.tw/2013/03/blog-post_20.html" target="_blank">金城武</a>以外，還請到了中華經濟研究院的吳惠林老師，如果看過我其他著作的，對於吳老師應該不陌生。連這本新書算在內，我的四本著作裡，吳惠林老師總共寫過三次推薦序，對此，除了覺得很不好意思老是麻煩老師之外，剩下的就是感謝了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><br><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-size: large;">老師在去年撰寫了《<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/kinopio/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010562474"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">蔣碩傑傳：<span lang="EN-US">奠基台灣奇蹟的自由經濟導師</span></span></span></a></span>》一書，而剛好最近投機者也整理了當年有名的《<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.speculator.com.tw/blog/%E8%94%A3%E7%8E%8B%E8%AB%96%E6%88%B0-%E6%96%AF%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%B2%E9%81%A0-%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%9A%E6%96%B0%E4%BB%87%E8%88%8A%E6%81%A8-2/"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">蔣王論戰</span></span></a></span>》，其實簡單來說就是自由學派與凱因斯的論戰。但我也曾說過，我並不是先認定特定的學派，才提出符合這學派的一些論述，而是這些論述確實相較於其他的理論更符合邏輯。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/03/blog-post_1190.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-50946642334062768212013-03-20T08:00:00.000+08:002013-03-20T08:31:56.648+08:00《誰把台灣經濟搞砸了》楊家彥所長推薦序_期待新世代勇敢提出新觀點<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lL0NetIMDYw/UUiMn_dhirI/AAAAAAAAAmo/0-77Og14iik/s1600/CB497A+%E8%AA%B0%E6%8A%8A%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E6%90%9E%E7%A0%B8%E4%BA%86_%E7%AB%8B%E9%AB%94.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lL0NetIMDYw/UUiMn_dhirI/AAAAAAAAAmo/0-77Og14iik/s400/CB497A+%E8%AA%B0%E6%8A%8A%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E6%90%9E%E7%A0%B8%E4%BA%86_%E7%AB%8B%E9%AB%94.jpg" width="327"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 22pt;">這次推薦序請到兩位經濟學者，其中一位是有著「經濟學界金城武」之稱的台灣經濟研究院研六所所長</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large; line-height: 22pt;"><a href="http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000411845195&fref=ts"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">楊家彥</span></span></a></span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 22pt;">。我想，「出版界阮經天」邀「經濟學界金城武」（這是有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large; line-height: 22pt;"><a href="http://www.andbooks.com.tw/editBackstage_view.php?stage_sn=21&stage_type_sn=4&page_num=2"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">典故</span></span></a></span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 22pt;">的，跟外表一點關係也沒有，阮粉請不要戰我）寫推薦序應該是很合適吧？</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">因為博客來版面</span></span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: large;">的</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 22pt;">問題，所以在網路上沒有推薦序全文，我覺得很可惜，所以把全文放上來給大家欣賞。</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">跟所長其實只有一面之緣，而且我很清楚知道所長在一些議題上跟我有著不同的看法，一般來說推薦序是不會找意見相左的推薦人的。但每每在<span lang="EN-US">FB</span>上看到充滿活力的所長帶著同仁們奮勇向前的一些歷程，我覺得很棒！所以還是請出版社試著幫我邀序，因為我很希望知道所長會怎麼去評價這本書？</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/03/blog-post_20.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-18111134756784609032013-03-19T09:00:00.001+08:002013-03-19T21:27:50.095+08:00誰把台灣經濟搞砸了？解開薪資成長停滯之謎<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m12PBbKoABI/UUe4Wx55e4I/AAAAAAAAAmY/xxe9reerc6g/s1600/%E8%AA%B0%E6%8A%8A%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E6%90%9E%E7%A0%B8%E4%BA%86%E5%B0%81%E9%9D%A2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m12PBbKoABI/UUe4Wx55e4I/AAAAAAAAAmY/xxe9reerc6g/s400/%E8%AA%B0%E6%8A%8A%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E6%90%9E%E7%A0%B8%E4%BA%86%E5%B0%81%E9%9D%A2.jpg" width="285"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">前一本書「<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/kinopio/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010541803"><span lang="EN-US">預見未來</span></a></span>」出版快一年了，而距離第一本著作「<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/kinopio/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010481046"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">民國100</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">年大泡沫</span></span></a></span>」則是已經將近兩年半的時間，在這中間第二本著作「<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/kinopio/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010508984"><span lang="EN-US">美元圈套</span></a></span>」也已改作為簡體版在中國大陸出版。說實話，這對於進到研究所後才知道怎麼寫好一篇文章的我真的是始料未及。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">我印象很深刻，跟圓神總經理（是的，就是那家<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.ettoday.net/news/20130203/160721.htm"><span lang="EN-US">周休三日</span></a></span>的幸福企業，也是出版我第一本與第二本著作的出版社）簡志興先生第一次見面的時候，他就說道：「這本書我們一定會出，因為一本書的目的是讓人再思考，不論讀者最後是否認同這樣的看法，至少他再次的從不同角度去思考過這些問題了。」<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">在那之後，這也就成了我寫書的目的與動力，就是讓我們再思考一次這些議題。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/03/blog-post_19.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-20181367968713698532013-03-14T08:00:00.000+08:002013-03-14T08:00:09.149+08:00簡單經濟學_生產才是成長的基礎 (三)<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p3KcG-N8k94/UTwyTcLezOI/AAAAAAAAAmI/j312f2evG9M/s1600/20130126_FND001_0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p3KcG-N8k94/UTwyTcLezOI/AAAAAAAAAmI/j312f2evG9M/s1600/20130126_FND001_0.jpg"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-left: .05pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在前面的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.tw/2013/02/blog-post_28.html">(<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span lang="EN-US">一</span></span>)</a></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.tw/2013/03/blog-post.html">(<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span lang="EN-US">二</span></span>)</a></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">兩篇文章講到，不論是在傳統的原始部落故事中，或著在現實的世界中，我們都可以發現，唯有「生產」才是創造成長的動力，那麼為什麼現代的政府或部分的經濟理論會認為「消費」會是經濟成長的關鍵呢？</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-left: .05pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">如果我們從國民生產毛額的公式來看，消費確實是計入為其中的一份子。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-left: .05pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">國民生產毛額（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Y</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">）</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">= C</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">（民間消費）</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">+ I</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">（投資）</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">+ G</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">（政府支出）</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">+ (X-M)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">（出口</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">進口）</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-left: .05pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這也是為什麼多數國家的政府與經濟理論會認為包括「民間消費」與「政府支出」在內的「消費」會是驅動經濟成長的主因，而在另一方面又會那麼的重視出口，因為包括「消費」與「淨出口（出口</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">進口）」在前述的公式中都是讓國民生產毛額增長的組成成份。</span></span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/03/blog-post_14.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-61344814544846356972013-03-07T08:00:00.000+08:002013-03-07T08:00:03.124+08:00簡單經濟學_生產才是成長的基礎 (二)<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EeN2XczAuH0/US9L12kgbpI/AAAAAAAAAls/Nl_ErTUFMhM/s1600/british+industrial-revolution.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EeN2XczAuH0/US9L12kgbpI/AAAAAAAAAls/Nl_ErTUFMhM/s400/british+industrial-revolution.jpg" width="400"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-left: .05pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">在前一篇的內容講到了原始部落的經濟成長模式，我們發現了「生產」而非「消費」才是驅動經濟成長的關鍵，而現實世界的經濟成長也是一樣。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-left: .05pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">英國在工業革命之前，一直是布料的進口國，而當時的印度則是靠著低廉的勞動力成為全世界布料的主要出口國，英國小說家迪福（<span lang="EN-US">Daniel Defore</span>）曾寫道：「我們看到我們那些有身分、有地位的人，個個把印度毛毯穿在身上。」這讓當時的英國開始驚覺並採行保護政策，限制布料進口數量並提高關稅，只不過這些都無法改變兩國的貿易結構。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/03/blog-post.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-90172795013951555592013-03-01T16:09:00.000+08:002013-03-01T16:09:00.093+08:00Money雜誌企業策略專欄2013年2月號 - 從中國製造到美國製造<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-m27dzlyztWI/URn5CZ1_H-I/AAAAAAAAAjA/jNGMjKie70Y/s1600/Made+in+USA+MIL+Logo_Lg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="251" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-m27dzlyztWI/URn5CZ1_H-I/AAAAAAAAAjA/jNGMjKie70Y/s400/Made+in+USA+MIL+Logo_Lg.png" width="400"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">美國總統歐巴馬在一次的餐會上曾問蘋果前執行長賈伯斯：「要怎樣才能讓<span lang="EN-US">iPhone</span>在美國生產呢？」，會這麼問是因為歐巴馬自上任以來一直致力於降低美國的失業率，而賈伯斯的回答非常的明確：「這些工作機會不會回來了。」。只不過在<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年底，蘋果現任執行長庫克卻向媒體表示：「明年起蘋果將在美國生產。」。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">除了蘋果表示將在美國設置生產線以外，其代工廠鴻海也發表了類似的看法，然而這樣的「鮭魚返鄉」潮似乎不僅止於電子產業。例如台塑在日前便宣布要加碼<span lang="EN-US">17</span>億美元進行新廠擴建，而包括美國鋼鐵巨擘<span lang="EN-US">Nucor</span>在內的數家鋼鐵廠也在全世界鋼市低迷的環境之下宣布擴建美國投資，究竟是什麼原因讓這些分屬於不同產業的業者紛紛回到美國生產呢？</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/03/money20132.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-83845398620473213342013-02-28T08:00:00.000+08:002013-02-28T20:19:51.590+08:00簡單經濟學_生產才是成長的基礎 (一)<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kUjWkBRoqiQ/USWa8qHncuI/AAAAAAAAAlQ/JS0XJ3Xac9E/s1600/201112081216042503856.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="204" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kUjWkBRoqiQ/USWa8qHncuI/AAAAAAAAAlQ/JS0XJ3Xac9E/s640/201112081216042503856.jpg" width="640"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-left: .05pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br></span></span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 22pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">在過去的幾本著作裡，分別提到了一些國家經濟發展的看法，雖然這些看法後來被歸類為奧地利學派，也就是偏向自由經濟的觀點，然而實際上我並不是先認定特定的學派，才認同這樣的論述，而是這些論述確實相較於其他的理論更符合邏輯。</span></span><br><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; line-height: 25pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; line-height: 25pt; text-align: justify;">一套更符合邏輯的理論，可以讓我們更了解不同國家所採行的政策會導致什麼樣的結果，為什麼有些國家會發生房地產泡沫？為什麼日本財政擴張了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; line-height: 25pt; text-align: justify;">20</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; line-height: 25pt; text-align: justify;">幾年還沒有效果？為什麼中國的四萬億救市策略會造成反效果？為什麼美國能在幾年內就從次貸中脫困，而日本卻不能？</span></span><br></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/02/blog-post_28.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-41720674507250709082013-02-25T08:00:00.000+08:002013-02-25T08:00:07.855+08:00中國全球電子巨頭之路崎嶇難行<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-n28CyfPyhsc/USTmEc_94zI/AAAAAAAAAks/TuhxM5WVEy8/s1600/122885986_11n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-n28CyfPyhsc/USTmEc_94zI/AAAAAAAAAks/TuhxM5WVEy8/s400/122885986_11n.jpg" width="400"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">中國工信部在今年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月<span lang="EN-US">22</span>日發布了《<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-01/22/content_2317600.htm"><span lang="EN-US">關於加快推進重點行業企業兼併重組的指導意見</span></a></span>》這份文件，主要內容是針對各項產能過剩的產業給予兼併重組的目標，希望在<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年以前，這些特定產業能達到一定的集中度以提升競爭力。</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">例如汽車業前十名的集中度要達<span lang="EN-US">90%</span>、鋼鐵業前十名集中度達<span lang="EN-US">60%</span>、水泥業前十名集中度達<span lang="EN-US">35%</span>等等，而與台灣關係較為密切的就是中國在電子資訊行業方面，於<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年前要形成<span lang="EN-US">5</span>到<span lang="EN-US">8</span>家銷售收入過<span lang="EN-US">1,000</span>億人民幣的大型骨幹企業，努力培育銷售收入過<span lang="EN-US">5,000</span>億人民幣的大企業。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/02/blog-post_25.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-8543176580130602392013-02-18T15:57:00.000+08:002013-02-18T15:57:00.217+08:00「黃金」年代不再<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bnAninrO4A4/URn1zt08WlI/AAAAAAAAAic/1Go7Y7JTYFk/s1600/gold.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bnAninrO4A4/URn1zt08WlI/AAAAAAAAAic/1Go7Y7JTYFk/s320/gold.jpg" width="320"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">近十年來，最為人所津津樂道的投資商品之一非黃金莫屬了。自<span lang="EN-US">2000</span>年的每盎司<span lang="EN-US">250</span>美元左右上漲到<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年的最高點每盎司<span lang="EN-US">1921.15</span>美元，漲幅超過六倍，即便到了<span lang="EN-US">2013</span>年，黃金價格也仍在<span lang="EN-US">1600</span>美元左右徘回。許多人開始認為黃金就像房地產一樣，只會漲不會跌，只不過也許就在今年末了，黃金年代將要正式告終。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">若我們從過去<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年的黃金價格與美元指數走勢來看，我們會發現兩者之間其實存在著一定的反向走勢關係。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/02/blog-post_18.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-16435236200295753692013-02-04T08:00:00.000+08:002013-02-04T08:00:02.636+08:00房市泡沫是經濟發展失敗的因? 還是果?<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-u_feGm1BiAk/UNpuF6uwlYI/AAAAAAAAAdM/wuhMWqAdw-w/s1600/bubble204.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-u_feGm1BiAk/UNpuF6uwlYI/AAAAAAAAAdM/wuhMWqAdw-w/s320/bubble204.jpg" width="318"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">最近的一篇新聞「<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/headline/20121224/34725390/%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E9%AB%98%E6%88%BF%E5%83%B9BBC%E5%92%8B%E8%88%8C"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">台灣高房價</span></span> BBC<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">咋舌</span></span></a></span>」又談到了台灣的房地產問題。裡面提到台灣房地產的房價所得比是<span lang="EN-US">14</span>倍，是相當驚人的數字。其實相關的數字我在《民國<span lang="EN-US">100</span>年大泡沫》一書中已經提過，更可怕的數字則是房價租金比，台灣是全世界最高的<span lang="EN-US">64</span>年。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/02/blog-post.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-3344944479147392332013-02-01T08:00:00.000+08:002013-02-01T08:00:06.324+08:00Money雜誌企業策略專欄2013年1月號 - 中台合資，各取所需<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FY4Mn4igh8o/UOmvfkkRYbI/AAAAAAAAAf8/SvcaefS4bYM/s1600/BN04_006.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="275" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FY4Mn4igh8o/UOmvfkkRYbI/AAAAAAAAAf8/SvcaefS4bYM/s400/BN04_006.jpg" width="400"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">在去年中國的第十八次全國代表大會上，中國前總書記胡錦濤提出了要在<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年讓中國國內生產毛額與人均收入較<span lang="EN-US">2010</span>年再翻倍的目標。以這樣目標估算，從<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年到<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年中國的國內生產毛額複合年增率必須要保持在<span lang="EN-US">7%</span>以上，若以中國過去的平均成長數據來看，這樣的目標確實是有達成的機會，但若考量近年的增長速度已經趨緩，中國勢必要拿出一些不一樣的政策來達成這樣的目標。</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">中國在<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年的人均<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>是<span lang="EN-US">5415</span>美元，差不多是台灣在<span lang="EN-US">1987</span>年的水準，當時台灣的人均<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>是<span lang="EN-US">5265</span>美元，而台灣只花了<span lang="EN-US">6</span>年，在<span lang="EN-US">1992</span>年就完成了收入倍增的目標。當年台灣的人均<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>來到<span lang="EN-US">10625</span>美元，一方面是因為新台幣的升值，另一方面則是靠著由傳統的勞力密集產業成功轉型成電子產業。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/02/money20131.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-34216380892328434732013-01-21T08:00:00.000+08:002013-01-21T08:00:07.690+08:00第一眼就看出問題：七種方法，鍛鍊你的預判力<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SnBho3Y4rVs/UM8ma9CW7sI/AAAAAAAAAb8/WFEZx-kNS_M/s1600/%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E7%9C%BC%E5%B0%B1%E7%9C%8B%E5%87%BA%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SnBho3Y4rVs/UM8ma9CW7sI/AAAAAAAAAb8/WFEZx-kNS_M/s1600/%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E7%9C%BC%E5%B0%B1%E7%9C%8B%E5%87%BA%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C.jpg"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">每個出版社在邀我作推薦新書時作法都不太一樣，有些出版社會寄電子檔、書稿，然後上市後再把實體書寄給我。有些則是只寄電子檔就要我推薦，這就算我很想看完，我也沒辦法看，因為我很難坐在電腦前把幾百頁的書看完的。有些出版社更有趣，書已經上市了，然後寄列印的書稿給我要我在書上市後推薦<span lang="EN-US">…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">其實每家出版社都有他的作法，我也沒什麼意見，會寫這段廢話只是最近剛好翻到一本書。當初出版社把書稿給我時我覺得很普通，但是最近把出版社寄來的書拿起來翻翻看卻又發現裡面有些觀念其實很有趣，所以簡單寫篇心得跟大家分享。</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/01/blog-post.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-49822002302425410902013-01-14T08:00:00.000+08:002013-01-14T08:00:00.678+08:00新四化的順序決定了新四化的成敗 <br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ubb23TnJKrA/UOeZfgzjFCI/AAAAAAAAAfM/UOgmd_H1O50/s1600/eu201212281441541964.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="313" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ubb23TnJKrA/UOeZfgzjFCI/AAAAAAAAAfM/UOgmd_H1O50/s400/eu201212281441541964.jpg" width="400"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 18.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">在中國十八大的會議中，提出了所謂的新四化，也就是<b>工業化、城鎮化、資訊化和農業現代化</b></span><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">這樣的指導方針一出，中國股市就開始出現了熱烈的反應，認為這將是中國經濟發展的解藥，更有</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://news.sina.com.hk/news/20121219/-9-2851969/1.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">媒體樂觀的表示</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">若中國每年城市人口比重上升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">1</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">個百分點，將可以啟動</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">5</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">萬多億的內需。如果未來城鎮化率提高</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">10</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">個百分點，則可以啟動</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">50</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">萬億內需，相當於再造一個目前的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 18.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">而中國社科院財經戰略研究院副院長荊林波表示</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">：「</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">目前中國統計的城鎮化率為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">51.3%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">，其中</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">1.8</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">億農民工去掉，真實的中國城市化率是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">35%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">左右。而發達國家城市化率一般在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">70%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">以上，還有極端的國家是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">90%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">多，比如新加坡。』如果我們直觀的從這樣的數據來看，也就是說中國的城鎮化率起碼還有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">35%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">的增長空間，光是這部分就可以創造目前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">GDP 3.5</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">倍的產值。</span></span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/01/blog-post_14.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-39183941897294531172013-01-07T08:00:00.000+08:002013-01-07T08:09:41.664+08:00不公平的代價：破解階級對立的金權結構<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Nh2xeIKVY4M/UNhjVlnCBrI/AAAAAAAAAcw/6At6gk-TEmA/s1600/image.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Nh2xeIKVY4M/UNhjVlnCBrI/AAAAAAAAAcw/6At6gk-TEmA/s320/image.jpg" width="228"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br></div><br><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">「</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">我們的經濟和政治體系，告訴我們會去作的事和實際作到的事，兩者天差地遠到了不容忽視的地步</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">」<span lang="EN-US">-</span>史迪格里茲</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Joseph E. Stiglitz</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">）</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">這本書主要的內容在於討論為什麼我們的經濟體系未能讓大部分的美國人過更好的生活，為什麼分配不均升高到這種程度，以及這會帶來什麼樣的結果。作者在書中提到美國近年來的所得成長幾乎都發生在頂層的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">1%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">，因此財富分配不均的狀況更為嚴重，中產階級也出現嚴重的空洞化。而分配不均則會進而帶來嚴重的經濟與社會問題，例如治安、健康甚至於總產出的下降等等。</span></span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/01/blog-post_7.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-39507437030214336682013-01-01T09:00:00.000+08:002013-01-01T09:46:14.631+08:002012年終感言_慢慢來，其實比較快<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BujrpKgQgzA/UODPy9wp0cI/AAAAAAAAAew/fJm968fimJY/s1600/wherethemagichappens.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BujrpKgQgzA/UODPy9wp0cI/AAAAAAAAAew/fJm968fimJY/s400/wherethemagichappens.jpg" width="400"></a></div><br><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年的生活現在回想起來其實跟<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年差不多忙碌<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">只不過前者是在忙家事，後者是在忙工作，同樣都是很充實的一年。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">還記得在寫<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年的年終感言時，那一年花了不少時間在宣傳《美元圈套》這本書，也有一段時間幾乎每個禮拜都去電視台錄影，後來也推掉了不少未成熟的合作機會。到了<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年則是連宣傳《預見未來》的時間都少了許多，也幾乎沒在參與電視台的錄影，雖然出版社還是很熱情的安排活動，製作單位也持續的邀約，但我還是希望能多留點時間陪陪家人。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">我常常覺得把自己搞到一個太忙的狀態往往就會忘了什麼是最重要的。很忙的時候，很多的事情就會變得很急，但長期來看，這些很急的事情不見得會是最重要的事情。當我們把時間都拿來處理急件，其實長期來看對個人的發展就不會是一件正面的事情了，這就像一些企業老是在接急單是一樣的道理吧？<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">所以<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年外部的活動少了，反而有更多的時間可以好好的思考要做些什麼。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>新書：</b><b><span lang="EN-US">2013</span></b><b>年預計會出版兩本書</b></span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2012/12/2012.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-47291922459003365382013-01-01T08:00:00.000+08:002013-01-01T08:00:04.435+08:00Money雜誌企業策略專欄2012年12月號 - 軟體銀行的4G豪賭<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BJ-S9DqDNmk/UNqJ_qV5r7I/AAAAAAAAAd4/N-h4vponNPo/s1600/Softbank-Sprint.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BJ-S9DqDNmk/UNqJ_qV5r7I/AAAAAAAAAd4/N-h4vponNPo/s400/Softbank-Sprint.jpg" width="400"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 18.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">台灣近期為了<span lang="EN-US">3G</span>上網會否因為「吃到飽」的機制而導致網路壅塞吵得不可開交，值此同時，全世界電信業的併購案則是如火如荼的在進行中，例如香港的和記黃埔收購了法國電信業者<span lang="EN-US">Orange</span>的奧地利分公司，而日本的軟體銀行更是在一個月內先以<span lang="EN-US">23</span>億美元收購日本第四大行動通訊業者<span lang="EN-US">eAccess</span>，而後則是宣佈以<span lang="EN-US">200</span>億美元收購美國第三大行動通訊業者<span lang="EN-US">Sprint 70%</span>的股權。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 18.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">軟體銀行與<span lang="EN-US">Sprint</span>的併購案是日本歷史上規模最大的科技業海外併購案，在這一連串的收購行動之後總用戶數將達<span lang="EN-US">9,600</span>萬戶，不論在日本或是在美國都是第三大的通訊業者，而據聞該公司未來很有可能繼續在美國併購小型的電信業者以進一步提升自己的市場規模。為什麼當台灣還在<span lang="EN-US">3G</span>時代停滯不前的時候，卻有業者開始砸大錢進行併購擴張呢？</span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2013/01/money201212-4g.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-89854490841858267692012-12-31T08:00:00.000+08:002012-12-31T08:00:01.524+08:002013年的十大經濟事件預測<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jNuRlDRwACk/UNXjgR78n1I/AAAAAAAAAcU/0-XjOUhohjQ/s1600/economic_forecasting.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jNuRlDRwACk/UNXjgR78n1I/AAAAAAAAAcU/0-XjOUhohjQ/s400/economic_forecasting.jpg" width="400"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 25.0pt; margin-bottom: 18.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-bottom: 1.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 1.0gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">每到了歲末年初的時候，總免不了會有十大經濟事件或十大科技產品的預測出現，也許大家還記得去年有個機構預測蘋果的股價在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">2012</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">年將會下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">50%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">，然後歐股會崩跌</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">？</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">而這家投資銀行今年又再度的提出了十項預測，也許是記取了去年的教訓吧？我覺得今年的預測有些倒是可能實現的。</span></span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2012/12/2013.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-23183878538417329142012-12-26T19:54:00.002+08:002012-12-26T19:54:30.429+08:00《快思慢想》贈書活動 2013/01/01 截止<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ti40dsVEGb8/UNrjHo7qzvI/AAAAAAAAAeU/my7rR0g3p_8/s1600/%E5%BF%AB%E6%80%9D%E6%85%A2%E6%83%B3%E6%B4%BB%E5%8B%95.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="410" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ti40dsVEGb8/UNrjHo7qzvI/AAAAAAAAAeU/my7rR0g3p_8/s640/%E5%BF%AB%E6%80%9D%E6%85%A2%E6%83%B3%E6%B4%BB%E5%8B%95.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=390874914334876&set=a.327633017325733.79189.288258511263184&type=1&theater" target="_blank">活動網址在這裡</a>，回覆這篇文章是沒有用的喔~~</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><br />王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622579175503275025.post-46718458660626874102012-12-24T08:00:00.000+08:002012-12-25T13:50:09.311+08:00快思慢想<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4sD2O9Unn4k/UMnfK4ASU5I/AAAAAAAAAbk/vwW5nQNX6Rw/s1600/image.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4sD2O9Unn4k/UMnfK4ASU5I/AAAAAAAAAbk/vwW5nQNX6Rw/s1600/image.jpg"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">在這本書出版之前就非常的期待，因為出版社的朋友告訴我這是集所有行為經濟學之大成的一本書，其實從封底的推薦人來看，就知道這本書有他一定的價值。包括《</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/kinopio/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010509916"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">黑天鵝效應</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">》的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">Taleb</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">，雖然我比較喜歡他另一本《</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/kinopio/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010190362"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">隨機致富的陷阱</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">》。《</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/kinopio/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010445555"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">推力</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">》的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">Thaler</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">以及《</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/kinopio/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010327164"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">蘋果橘子經濟學</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">》的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;">Levitt</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">。這幾本書在我的書架上都有，而且偶爾還會拿起來再翻翻，也是我很喜歡的跟投資與行為經濟學相關的書。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 22.0pt; margin-top: 18.0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">而這本《快思慢想》真的是集大成，因為很多其他書中所引用的實驗與案例，在這裡幾乎都可以看得到，所以如果沒有看過其他幾本，我認為從這本入手也是一種選擇。</span></span></div><a href="http://potawang.blogspot.com/2012/12/blog-post_24.html#more">閱讀更多 »</a>王伯達http://www.blogger.com/profile/10389161048805854862noreply@blogger.com0