Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis

SPX and COMPQ: Still in the Range

2026-10-05T03:28:48.317-10:00

Since last update, SPX rallied up into its potential target zone:

COMPQ did get another high:

SPX remains range-bound for now and is still covering the same ground, so anything I could add here would just be rehashing everything that's been said already, over the past several weeks. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, and Shakespeare Updates: Near-term Call Worked

2026-10-02T03:28:07.934-10:00

Last update insultingly (for SPX) found its then-recent effort to form a low "unconvincing" -- and suggested new lows were likely. That worked out.

Nothing happened in COMPQ, so it's still in the same place:

Other than the near-term hit, not much to add. Lots of noise and little that one could take to the bank right now. I believe it was Shakespeare who penned the famous quote about this market: "SPX is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, but signifying nothing." Hard to argue with that. Trade safe.

COMPQ and SPX: "Wonky-Tonk Woman"

2026-09-30T03:24:39.031-10:00

There's been a little movement since last update, but it was unconvincing. By that, I mean it doesn't form an easily recognizable complete pattern. I suppose it could be a wonky WXY, but that would be pretty... well, pretty wonky. Not impossible, though, in all fairness.

No change to the bigger picture:

COMPQ avoided a new near-term low -- so far:

Not much to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, TLT: TLT Finally Validates Expectations from 2022/2024

2026-09-28T03:26:08.442-10:00

Quite a few readers have asked me to update my old bond chart, so I'll do that today and we'll look at that one last. First, let's breeze through COMPQ and SPX, which haven't done much since Friday. COMPQ first:

SPX has similar options:

Now the chart everyone's been asking for. TLT has finally confirmed my long-term count -- the chart annotation has the latest:

Finally, here's a chart I published four years ago -- updated only with the latest changes to the chart itself. I show this because looking at "what happened afterwards" can help people train their eye to visualize how these things progress:

Not much else to say beyond all that. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Inflecting at the Inflection

2026-09-25T03:23:09.906-10:00

So, courtesy of Super El Nino (which sounds like a low budget comic book hero from south of the border: "¡Mira! Up in the sky! It's a pájaro, it's an avion... it's Super El Nino!"), we have yet another hurricane expected to wreak havoc on us this weekend. This will be the fourth named storm to impact us since mid-August. My instinct is -- despite the projections that Hurricane Nolo will become a category 3 "major" hurricane -- that this one will not hit us quite as bad as Hurricane Lala did... but I wanted to mention it just in case I'm wrong and Hawaii disappears beneath the Pacific and there's no update on Monday.

It's actually kind of amazing that we've been hit by two "L-named" storms, an "M" storm, and now an "N" -- at this rate, by the time we reach the end of the alphabet, I'll be hunting boar with spears and posting updates using smoke signals. Just fair warning.

Since last update, SPX found resistance and declined. As I wrote on Monday:

[A]s SPX moves higher (and thus closer to resistance), bulls will want to gain more caution, not less -- since as yet we cannot "rule out" the more bearish options (such as a b-wave low).

For the moment, this decline leaves the market range-bound in a sort of no man's land:

COMPQ reversed right at the black B-label but I want to caution that this reversal does not yet confirm said b-wave, and another high is not at all off the table yet. My eye tends to locate inflection points by reflex and I usually stick the labels there -- so the market reacting to the inflection doesn't immediately prove that the label's right (it just proves that I accurately identified the likely inflection point).

In conclusion, I've given a lot of warnings in this update about "this could still be something else," and it could -- but of course, on the flip side, this move is exactly what bears would want to see, so we'll find out soon enough if they can keep pushing or not. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: COMPQ Confirms Read from August 26

2026-09-23T03:29:16.164-10:00

COMPQ finally confirmed the micro b-wave high (from August 26) and WXY count from September 9. I would like it noted in the Official Record that on August 26, our house was running on a portable generator and my mobile hotspot wasn't working right... so while it was not the hardest call I've ever published, it was -- hands down -- the least convenient.

SPX has been stuck in neutral since Monday's update, so just a new melt up trendline and not much new to say about it:

In conclusion, COMPQ now needs to decide if the July low was a b-wave that needs to be cleaned up or not. At this point -- due to the larger pattern -- if it does decline to that zone, it would most likely just be a scary correction and probably not the end of the bull market. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-09-21T03:25:43.644-10:00

There are no real changes since Friday's update, since SPX has continued to bounce off the blue trend line. Worth mentioning that even though everything is so far performing in line with a WXY, as SPX moves higher (and thus closer to resistance), bulls will want to gain more caution, not less -- since as yet we cannot "rule out" the more bearish options (such as a b-wave low).

COMPQ is closing in on the upside zone that I mentioned on Friday:

Not much to add beyond that. Do keep in mind what I mentioned not too long ago: even if SPX makes a new all-time-high (which it would if the WXY count is true), the possibility exists for that high to be micro wave 5 to the rally off the July low, which (if that were to be the case) would be followed by a potentially-larger correction. So, while sometimes new all-time highs can, of themselves, signal an "all clear" for bulls -- this is not one of those cases. Doesn't mean the rally can't continue, just means that from a technical standpoint here, a new high would not be enough by itself. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Trendlines and Powerlines

2026-09-18T03:21:31.445-10:00

So after 4 weeks and 5 figures, we finally have power and internet again. Hurrah. There's a long and convoluted story there if anyone ever wants to hear it -- but either way, years from now, when some news report mentions that "after Hurricane Lala, some people in Hawaii were without power for a month!" you can say, "Yeah, I know one of them."

Since last update, the value of the SPX trend line chart proved itself again:

COMPQ held above its key zone as well:

In conclusion, the WXY I've talked about for a while remains very much on the table for now. In the event bears were to sustain breakdowns at support, though, then bulls should become very cautious. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Warshing the Fed

2026-09-16T03:15:16.031-10:00

So today is a Fed day (there are probably now at least 40 updates that begin with those exact words), and it's interesting to note that the pattern has turned bi-modal right on schedule. We can see this on the SPX chart below:

COMPQ is also attempting to dissolve my prior reticence about the black B-wave being complete. It's not entirely there yet, but it's approaching the edge:

I think the biggest issue for bulls here is that the COMPQ count, if it's correct, wants to pull COMPQ lower one way or another. Five weeks ago, when I first published that count, it seemed almost ridiculous in light of the strong up-move we were (then) right in the midst of... but now that the market has burned off all its prior upward momentum, it's a lot easier to countenance.

So I think the takeaway here is that bulls should be watching their backs pretty carefully right now. I can't go so far as to say it's a lock for bears... but this market's ice is thin. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Below Resistance, Above Support (for now)

2026-09-13T23:33:48.531-10:00

Today's update is being published early because I'm too exhausted to stay up any later. I've been dealing with electricians and utility companies and general house-related disasters all weekend and am running on fumes right now. On the bright side, there does finally seem to be light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully it's not an oncoming train.

Last update said:

[T]he first resistance line is black, so bulls will need to sustain trade above that to prove their mettle. Conversely, bears will need to sustain trade beneath the falling blue trend line to prove theirs.

SPX then rallied up to black and got rejected, so bulls haven't proven their case yet:

The chart pretty well explains the situation, so probably no need to rehash that here. Trade safe.

SPX Update: The Value of Proper Trend Lines

2026-09-11T03:16:52.015-10:00

In the last update, I wrote:

While it's fun to speculate, in reality, this remains a situation with multiple complex options, including WXYs and potential expanded flats at two different wave degrees. In such situations, I prefer to focus on trend lines and just let the market show us which route it's decided on.

The following chart was then attached:

SPX fell through black straight down to the blue horizontal. And as of the time of this writing, ES futures are indicating a big bounce off the blue horizontal, effectively demonstrating the value of this approach. Note the WXY is a corrective pattern that preserves the larger uptrend -- but the first resistance line is black, so bulls will need to sustain trade above that to prove their mettle. Conversely, bears will need to sustain trade beneath the falling blue trend line to prove theirs. Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Your Move, Mr. Market

2026-09-09T03:08:14.053-10:00

The market hasn't moved much since last update, leaving everything in basically the same place it was then.

While it's fun to speculate, in reality, this remains a situation with multiple complex options, including WXYs and potential expanded flats at two different wave degrees. In such situations, I prefer to focus on trend lines and just let the market show us which route it's decided on:

Not much else to say that wasn't already said last week. Refer back to those updates as needed for more detail. Trade safe.

SPX Update: We're Going to Need Your Keys

2026-09-04T03:26:39.318-10:00

Last update noted that SPX had come within 3 points of its downside target zone, and bulls have staged a solid bounce from that low. The rally ran straight up to the blue trend line I drew last update:

Nothing to add to this second chart:

This new chart is worth including, though, for those who aren't already intimately familiar with the technical minutiae of Elliott Wave:

Beyond that, there is a not-insignificant chance the current rally is wave 5 of the wave coming up from 7313. That doesn't guarantee it ends immediately or anything... but it does mean that bulls will want to keep their wits about them (just in case it does) and not be off drinking celebratory bull juice in need of a designated driver. Of course, this is not to imply that, even if this is wave 5, it would necessarily end the entire bull market -- but it could lead to a sharper correction (and we can never rule out that such a moment won't, in fact, end the bull market -- so there's that). Trade safe.

SPX Update: Meaningful Trend Lines

2026-09-02T03:27:51.163-10:00

Last update noted that bulls had failed to overlap their key level, leaving new lows on the table. Bears took advantage of that and took SPX down toward its next downside target zone:

Bigger picture, there are a couple meaningful trendlines nearby:

Not much else to add beyond that. No, I still don't have power. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Whose Line is it Anyway?

2026-08-31T03:20:35.260-10:00

(For those following the latest episodes of My Net Zero Life: on the plus side, this weekend Hawaiian Electric finally came to our house... on the negative side, they promptly informed us that our service cable had been ripped out through the weatherhead and that they couldn't reconnect our power until a licensed electrician repaired the damage. They also told us our situation was extremely hazardous (good to know that TWO WEEKS IN) and finally disconnected the live power line lying across the driveway. So we're still an unknown number of days from having power again, though after a million phone calls, I did find an electrician who can at least look at our house early this week, so we'll see how that goes. Along those lines (no pun intended), I'm completely exhausted right now -- but I promised an update today. Forgive me for keeping it short.)

Since last update, SPX stalled just shy of the level it needs:

Basically, SPX has left both options live for now -- but at least the levels it needs next are clear. Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates: [We Are Experiencing an Article Title Shortage Due to Hurricane After-Effects]

2026-08-28T03:08:58.116-10:00

So tomorrow will be two weeks without power and internet to our house -- and now my cell provider is having major ongoing problems with their "high speed" mobile hotspot (which I'm paying extra for) and I'm not even getting 1 Mb/s of data through their garbage connection... so today's update is going to be on the short side. Tomorrow, we'll be getting out of Dodge (again), this time until Wednesday (we have no idea how long to book our stays, since Hawaiian Electric is still unable to provide any kind of estimate as to how long it will be until they can repair our downed line).

Anyway, I'll do Monday and Wednesday's updates from the road.

Last update noted that SPX and COMPQ had potentially formed enough waves down for a complete C-wave decline, and that looks increasingly likely. This doesn't entirely rule out: 1) another wave down (though that seems like an underdog); 2) Some kind of stupidly complex correction like a WXY (which would form ANOTHER ABC down).

But the straightforward option (if the market doesn't want to opt for something more complex) is that the correction is over and it's on to new all-time highs.

Nothing to add to COMPQ:

In conclusion, no real change from last update -- the market has simply added confidence that it was correct. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Hawaiian Electric Secretly Controlling the Market?

2026-08-26T01:59:31.773-10:00

Day 11 (base camp): Three days now since Jon ventured out to examine the downed power line; he still has not returned. The cats have begun cannibalizing the neighbors. This morning, I caught my wife attempting to (in her words) "watch the news" on a well-polished spoon. Hawaiian Electric is now actively refusing our phone calls. I think I've lost feeling in my right leg. On the plus side, our power consumption is the lowest it's ever been:

As we can see from the recently-recovered diary entry above, things are still pretty wild in Hawaii... but I'm going to push ahead with the update anyway. Interesting that SPX ran out of power basically the same time I did:

It's now getting into an area where we can count roughly five waves down (not entirely clear whether one more small wave down is still needed).

COMPQ is in a similar position -- near term, anyway:

In conclusion, given that the decline began about the same time our power went out, maybe if the market starts rallying again, Hawaiian Electric will finally decide to restore our power (ha). Market-wise, we're now getting into the zone where we'd expect a standard c-wave decline to consider bottoming soon. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: First Downside Targets Captured

2026-08-19T03:27:50.334-10:00

Last update expanded (no pun intended) upon the potential for an expanded flat to be underway and gave ~7700 as the first target zone. SPX opened right on that zone yesterday:

Futures are bouncing this morning, so the market is at least respecting the inflection zone as being a real thing. Whether that bounce represents the start of the next leg up or not is still up in the air.

Interestingly, INDU also captured its casual "here's how it looks eyeballing it" target (from August 12), roughly to the point and almost to the hour:

In conclusion, the market has reached its first downside inflection, so if bulls want to run with it from here, they absolutely could. That said, the pattern could still support another low without any problems, so we'll see if the bounce becomes impulsive or not.

On a personal note, we are still without power and still have an energized power line lying across our driveway... so life isn't exactly back to normal here. I've decided it would be best to give my full attention to my family and step away from the market for an extended weekend -- so I'm going to take Friday and Monday off (including from trading, so the market's free to go wild!), and the updates will return on Wednesday. Many thanks for your understanding and support. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Hurricanes and the Market

2026-08-17T03:19:50.550-10:00

As those of you with internet access no doubt already know, Hawaii was hit with a hurricane on Saturday... so to say I've had an eventful weekend would be something of an understatement. Friday seems like a million years ago. I'm currently without power and hard-line internet, and up until a few hours ago, my family and I had spent the weekend physically trapped on our property by a downed power line and a large tree... so the update will be on the short side.

Amusingly, not only was this Hurricane named "Lala," apparently after winning the NHC's competition for Dumbest Possible Hurricane Name (thereby forever dooming those of us who lived through it to have to say stupid things like, "Sure, this is bad -- but it's not as bad as Lala." And: "You think this is windy? You kids should have seen Lala!" Causing future generations to assume we've developed some sort of bizarre verbal tic.).

Right -- NOT ONLY that, but amusingly, this last thing I wrote on Friday proved to be a hit (pun intended):

I have a feeling this one might actually do some damage (unlike most of the storms that head our way)...

Anyway, enough about me and Lala-la-la-la. Let's talk about something even more chaotic: SPX.

As we can see, SPX is keeping options open for a potential b-wave high, which (if it runs with that) would put us into another complex grind. We should learn during the next session or two if it wants to take that route, or if it intends to proceed with the more straightforward bull option. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-08-14T03:25:38.036-10:00

On August 7, I wrote:

...that's one reason I'm stepping back from the "needs more fourth wave" call (though I still slightly lean that way).

It turned out the caution I demonstrated there was misplaced and SPX did indeed need more fourth wave (though whether caution can ever be "misplaced" when dealing with an organic system as complex as the stock market is a deeper philosophical question). It appears to be breaking out of a triangle, but hasn't reached the classic triangle target yet.

The more bullish interpretation would be that it's breaking out of a new bull nest and will run higher for at least a little while, unwinding 4th and 5th waves along the way.

The more "bearish" (though only near-term bearish) option would be that the high is a b-wave.

COMPQ looks like it's probably an incomplete wave so far:

Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

p.s.- We have a tropical storm (projected to be turning into a hurricane) headed straight for Hawaii and due to hit later today and into the weekend... so there's a chance the updates may be disrupted heading into next week. I have a feeling this one might actually do some damage (unlike most of the storms that head our way), so we'll keep our fingers crossed.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Extreme Market Dissonance

2026-08-12T03:26:42.427-10:00

SPX hasn't moved since Thursday, so there's little to add... but I'll add something anyway.

The charts are pretty self-explanatory here. SPX first:

INDU is interesting:

And COMPQ is still in the same place:

The charts pretty much say it all here... we have three markets that all seem to be on different pages. This extreme dissonance suggests traders are heavily divided on what they're anticipating next. Trade safe.

NYA and COMPQ Updates: (SPX Offered Nothing New)

2026-08-10T03:18:48.059-10:00

SPX rallied a hair on Friday but is in the same place structurally. Which means there's nothing new to talk about there. So, to prevent this update from being six words long, let's talk about something else.

We'll start with the bull case, which is probably at its most visible in NYA:

The bear case, which might well only be short-term even if it comes to pass, is still best visible in COMPQ:

In conclusion, on Friday, I mentioned on our forums that across my literally tens of thousands of hours of watching price charts unfold in real-time, I haven't seen too many markets behave this consistently strangely, particularly from a pattern perspective. Micro-patterns that would resolve 90% of the time in a typical market never get resolved in this one. Obviously, you could say "well, this is just the 10% of the time they don't resolve" and I would agree with that if it only happened once or twice -- but it's been continuous. You can expect to hit heads 50% of the time on a coin flip -- but you can't reasonably expect to hit it 60 times in a row. This market is the latter. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Upon Further Review...

2026-08-07T03:30:23.718-10:00

In the last update, I suggested that the rally probably needed "at least two 4/5 unwinds higher." My confidence in that has fallen significantly. Let me show you why, starting with SPX's near-term chart:

Upon further examination and deeper study of ES (e-mini SPX futures), I cannot rule out the black count. And the black count would have already completed the requisite fourth wave. So that's one reason I'm stepping back from the "needs more fourth wave" call (though I still slightly lean that way).

The other is COMP, which I showed last update and which looked like IT needed another high... and it still kind of looks that way, but whether it does or not, COMPQ and SPX haven't exactly been moving in lockstep, so SPX does not need to follow.

In conclusion, this is a low-confidence market right now and I'm struggling to find anything that's high-confidence actionable, so the best we can do is know the options to have a jump on them as it develops. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-08-05T03:13:47.326-10:00

Way back on June 17, I wrote:

I do suspect that if SPX forms another scary wave down, this is probably not the end of the bull market yet, based on INDU and NYA.

We never even got another truly "scary" wave down -- so that call, at least, was easy. Pretty much nothing else about this market has been.

Friday's update warned that, after a string of near-term wins, the pattern had taken us as far as it could and that things were now up in the air. I attempted to heavily underscore that warning with:

"The simplest version of this pattern is potentially complete -- so further lows are OPTIONAL but not NECESSARY."

Friday's update as a whole intended to convey that the market was behaving, as that update so eloquently put it, "insane."

Monday's update then attempted to detail the potential triangle that was, at that time, still on the table as one of the "2,896.5 potentially valid near-term patterns" (Friday's quote). The triangle turned out to be a no-go, which we knew for certain the very instant SPX broke above 7581.50 (this level, too, was discussed in Friday's update).

And as I also wrote Monday:

Ultimately, bulls are basically just looking for SPX to make a new all-time high, which would reset most of the bear options and give bulls a clean slate.

So on Friday and Monday (before the session), while we didn't know what the market would do next, we at least knew that we didn't know -- and tried to convey that clearly.

It now appears that the rare bull pattern discussed on Friday was probably the pattern we were in:

The more bullish option (not shown) would be that we just lived through a rare RUNNING flat (where the wave C decline fails to break the wave A low) and the decline is entirely over, with SPX headed to a new all-time high.

Rare patterns are, by definition, unusual (obviously), so the tough thing is: you can't bank on a rare pattern. That would be like betting the coin flip will land on the edge of the coin instead of on heads or tails. Sure, it happens. But rarely. The best you can hope to do is identify such patterns when they're possible -- and get out of the market's way when ambiguity is high (or hedge heavily, if you know what you're doing and understand that hedges will go to zero if the market keeps grinding).

COMPQ is the most interesting chart out there:

In conclusion, the triangle died during Monday's session and bulls ran with that on Tuesday. This is now the type of market that's best served by just drawing an uptrend (melt-up) channel and not even giving thought to countertrend trading unless the market can sustain trade below it (and maybe not even then -- countertrend trading is often brutal, as we just saw). Trade safe.

SPX Update: Needs More Cowbell

2026-08-03T03:23:17.105-10:00

Last update had no hard predictions -- and those was a hit (wait, what?). This update will detail some of the details in more detail, in as detailed a fashion as I can manage while also finding a way to work the word "detail" into this sentence again.

Let's start with the complex triangle. This first chart is the chart we've all come to know and love through these many moons -- a chart that needs no introduction.

The second chart is more... detailed.

This next chart shows how the complex triangle (if that's what this even is) might play out:

This third chart shows the current micro count. If this wave is part of a triangle, it should remain an ABC. If it becomes impulsive, that would leave the old WXY count and a b-wave low (with the next wave down to be a third wave) (that count can't exceed 7582)... or bull options.

Let's add more detail to the details detailed above: In the event this is the complex triangle, it's worth knowing that it would NOT be long-term bearish. It would be near-term bearish -- but because triangles are virtually always penultimate waves (4th or b waves), it would strongly suggest the larger decline from the ATH would remain as an ABC, with new highs to follow.

The most bearish count going right now would be the WXY with that last decline as wave 1 of C or 3 down and the current bounce as 2 up. That count would offer at least some longer-term hope (not promises, but hope) to bears, were it to play out.

The bull counts are varied -- and largely redundant, because they all end with "stocks go up." There is one obscure "bull" count that ends badly, and that would be if this were an ending diagonal in progress, destined for one or two more highs before falling off a cliff -- but we'll worry about that if the pattern says we should.

Ultimately, bulls are basically just looking for SPX to make a new all-time high, which would reset most of the bear options and give bulls a clean slate.

So those are the details as they sit at this exact moment in time. Trade safe.