The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in US and foreign asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We discuss how the stock market has just delivered a right-tail event despite widespread expectations of a left-tail one.
Section 3 covers the performance of our low-turnover tactical and strategic allocations. No hype, no outrageous claims, just simplicity and robustness.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

For the week ending May 8, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 4.2% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +15.3%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 5.3%. Year-to-date: +17.1%.
• The SPY ETF gained 2.4%. Year-to-date: +8.5%

For the open positions and new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA (Lev) when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 29.1% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 19.9% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Stocks had a strong rally after March 30, 2026, and in the past 28 trading days, the S&P 500 index has gained 16.6% and has reached new, all-time highs. Below are price action statistics based on similar historical price action patterns.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might skip updating the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Right Tail Event was originally published on Price Action Lab

In the past eight trading days, the stock of Intel Corp. has surged 62%. This eight-standard-deviation move in a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock could represent the biggest-ever stock market pump via financial engineering. Below are a few details.

The stock of Intel Corp. (INTC) recovered from the dot-com crash about a month ago, on April 20, 2025, after experiencing a maximum drawdown of about 80% during 2008 and then, after a sluggish uptrend, falling again as much as 70% below the 2000 highs in April 2025. Below is the buy-and-hold performance since 2000, as of the close of Tuesday, May 5, 2026.

Right after joining the Dow-30 index on November 1, 1999, the stock acted as a drag on performance, with large drawdowns and a never-ending recovery period from the dot-com top. The stock was removed from the Dow-30 index on November 8, 2024, and was replaced by Nvidia. However, the damage had already affected Dow-30 performance.

The “art of the deal” found the answer to affecting a recovery in INTC stock: partial nationalization. Was this a good decision? We do not know; we are here to talk about markets and data, not to analyze political decisions that are now an integral part of Wall Street, also known as “financial engineering.” In summary, the government decided to take a 10% stake via a $11 billion investment. Under the terms of the agreement, the government agreed to purchase 433.3 million primary shares of Intel common stock. The stock of the company started recovering on the news, and recently the uptrend has accelerated.

In the past eight trading days, INTC has surged 62%, or more than eight standard deviations, or one standard deviation per day on average, based on the available sample of 8-day returns since the stock’s IPO in the 1970s. This remarkable rally in INTC stock has absorbed selling pressures in the stock market. However, please note that although the S&P 500 index total return (SPY) is up 6.4% year-to-date, 437 stocks in the index underperform it, and 280 stocks are in the red year-to-date. A few stocks, mostly in the tech sector, are doing the most work. Memories of the 2000 dot-com top keep flashing in the heads of those who have lived through more than one major bear market. But those who have only dealt with the markets after the GFC and quantitative easing argue that “this time is different.”

Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please review the full disclaimer here.

Our weekly market report is now available on Substack. Click below to subscribe.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

The Relentless One-Standard Deviation Daily Market Pump was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in US and foreign asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We focus on the sustainability issues of the current market dynamic based on our quantitative analysis.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

For the week ending May 1, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 1.6% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +10.6%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was launched late last year, gained 1.3%. Year-to-date: +11.3%.
• The SPY ETF gained 0.9%. Year-to-date: +6%

For the open positions and new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA (Lev) when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 19.2% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 16.5% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.

We would also like to remind new subscribers that from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, the WRE tactical ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation. This position gained 115.3% (unleveraged).

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Stocks had a strong rally after March 30, 2026, and in the past 23 trading days, the S&P 500 index has gained 14%, while momentum remains strong (14-day RSI > 70). We will look at a few statistics of price action, at counterintuitive ramifications, and, more importantly, at how the current market regime could influence the performance of the market going forward.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might not update the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Business as Usual was originally published on Price Action Lab

This premium report included an update on the monthly rebalanced Market Signal strategies. A Market Signals subscription provides access to the entire report.

Positions and strategy performance: Thursday, April 30, 2026

Access the full report with a Market Signals subscription. Hundreds of articles are instantly available to you if you subscribe. Subscribers to Market Signals have instant access to more than 200 articles in the Premium Education section, as well as monthly signals for dynamic momentum and hybrid asset allocation.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

Disclaimer: The Weekly Signals are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purpose of the Weekly Signals. Under no circumstances should the premium or weekly signals be treated as financial advice. The author of this website is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Copyright notice: Any unauthorized copy, reproduction, distribution, publication, display, modification, or transmission of any part of this report is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Market Signals for May 1, 2026 was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in US and foreign asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current bullish dynamic.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble

For the week ending April 24, 2026, the weekly strategies ensemble (WeeklyReport-WRE) gained 1.5% with equal allocation, without leverage, as compared to a 0.5% gain for the SPY ETF. The SPY ETF is up 5% so far this year, while the ensemble has gained 8.9%.

Since January 2022:

• The SPY ETF has gained 62.4%, while the ensemble has gained 67.5%.
• The ensemble has increased by 108% with 1.6x leverage.

For open positions and new signals, see Section 3.

We would like to remind new subscribers that from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, the ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation. This position gained 115.3% (unleveraged).

Strategic allocation

The SPY ETF gained 0.5% for the week, while the Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was launched late last year, gained 0.9%. Below is the performance since 2020 with annual rebalancing and without leverage.

The SPY ETF is up 5% so far this year, while the strategic allocation is up 9.8%.

In Section 3, we include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 16.6%.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Tech stocks had a strong rally after March 30, 2026, and in the past 18 trading days, the QQQ ETF has gained 18.9%, and it is now overbought for 8 days (14-day RSI > 70). Below, we will look at the statistics and also review the price action dynamics of the stock market.

3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble (WRE): Positions and new signals

We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs.

• The ensemble (WRE) has gained 67.5% since the beginning of 2022 vs. 62.4% for the SPY ETF.
• The ensemble has gained 108% with 1.6x leverage (volatility-adjusted basis.)

We have computed the leverage using the weekly performance of the SPY ETF and the weekly report (WRE) since 2017.

Strategic allocation (PALSA)

Performance of unleveraged and leveraged allocations (annual rebalance)

The volatility of the leveraged strategic allocation is matched up to that of the SPY ETF with 1.7x leverage. Below is the performance since 2020.

After the application of leverage:

• The maximum drawdown and volatility match those of the SPY ETF.
• The annualized return increased from 13.6% to 22.3%.
• The risk-adjusted alpha rose from 4.2% to 6.1%.
• The leveraged allocation’ beta is 0.93, vs. 0.54 for the unleveraged case.

Leverage has the potential to outperform the benchmark but at comparable levels of the risk metrics and should be avoided or significantly lowered if the objective is to limit drawdowns.

Strategic allocation: ETFs and weights

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might not update the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Where is the Dough? was originally published on Price Action Lab

The S&P 500 has gained 12.1% in 17 trading days after Warren Buffett announced that Berkshire intends to deploy capital if there is a big decline in the stock market.

We are not going to look here at theories of coincidence; the subject is too complicated. However, the reader understands the general concept: Warren Buffett announces the intention to deploy a portion of Berkshire Hathaway’s vast reserves, currently estimated at $350 billion, in the event of a market drop, and the outcome is not only the absence of the drop but also the stock market reaching new all-time highs.

It makes sense. Does it make sense to you? Is it necessary to go into the details? I don’t think so. It is better to look at the data rather than waste time studying theories of coincidence and market manipulation.

The table below shows the annual performance of Berkshire’s stock and the S&P 500 index’s total return. The last column shows the difference. If the difference is positive (blue), the stock outperformed. If the difference is negative (red), the stock underperformed during that year.

I assume everyone can spot two major times of significance: the stock outperformed during the dot-com bear market, possibly due to investing in value stocks, but has underperformed since 2019.

Specifically, since 2019, the total return of the S&P 500 index is 218.2%, while that of the Berkshire stock is 130.5%. The Sharpe ratio of the index total return in the same period is 0.87, while the Sharpe ratio of the stock is 0.60. No bueno.

Year-to-date, the stock is down 6.4%, while the S&P 500 index is up 4.2%.

Of course, the vast cash reserves can be used to support the market verbally and cause a strong rally amid one of the worst periods in geopolitics as well as politics. Coincidence?

Some scientists say the coincidences are random, while others say we should examine their causes. When it comes to price action, in this blog we adhere to the maxim, “it is what it is.” The important question is not whether Buffett offered a market put but whether there is a robust process to deal with the price action, and this process is what we believe we do effectively. Manipulation may always be present. The sun rises every day to manipulate the environment so that life is possible. Think about that. Maybe manipulation is a fundamental process.

There are endless market reports: permabulls chasing rainbows, permabears waiting for the end, amateurs using AI to impress you, and rookies who missed the last real bear market. If you want perspective from someone who’s actually been through the cycles, click below.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

The Buffett Put and the Theory of Coincidences was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. “Hidden variables” discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in US and foreign asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current bullish dynamic.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble

For the week ending April 17, 2026, the weekly strategies ensemble (WeeklyReport-WRE) gained 3.2% with equal allocation, without leverage, as compared to a 4.5% gain for the SPY ETF. The SPY ETF is up 4.4% so far this year, while the ensemble has gained 7.4%.

Since January 2022:

• The SPY ETF has gained 61.5%, while the ensemble has gained 65.3%.
• The ensemble has increased by 104.5% with 1.6x leverage.

For open positions and new signals, see Section 3.

We would like to remind new subscribers that from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, the ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation. This position gained 115.3% (unleveraged).

Strategic allocation

The SPY ETF gained 4.5% during the week, while the Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was launched late last year, gained 3.5%. Below is the performance since 2020 with annual rebalancing and without leverage.

The SPY ETF is up 4.4% so far this year, while the strategic allocation is up 8.8%.

In Section 3, we include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 14.9%.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

The S&P 500 index had its best week in a year, rising by 4.5%, and its best three-week performance in six years, surging by 11.9%. These changes caused a recovery from a 9.1% drop and set new all-time highs.

The above weekly chart shows that similar 3-sigma moves in 3 weeks (based on the available sample since 1945) have only happened 13 times in the past, or 0.31% of the time (4,148 weekly bars). Will the stock market rebound continue? Below is our analysis of a few price action patterns.

3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble (WRE): Positions and new signals

We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs.

• The ensemble (WRE) has gained 65.3% since the beginning of 2022 vs. 61.5% for the SPY ETF.
• The ensemble has gained 100.5% with 1.6x leverage (volatility-adjusted basis.)

We have computed the leverage using the weekly performance of the SPY ETF and the weekly report (WRE) since 2017.

Strategic allocation (PALSA)

Performance of unleveraged and leveraged allocations

The volatility of the leveraged strategic allocation is matched up to that of the SPY ETF with 1.7x leverage. Below is the performance since 2020.

After the application of leverage:

• The maximum drawdown and volatility match those of the SPY ETF.
• The annualized return increased from 13.5% to 22.0%.
• The risk-adjusted alpha rose from 4.2% to 6.1%.
• The leveraged allocation’ beta is 0.93, vs. 0.54 for the unleveraged case.

Leverage has the potential to outperform the benchmark but at comparable levels of the risk metrics and should be avoided or significantly lowered if the objective is to limit drawdowns.

Strategic allocation: ETFs and weights

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might not update the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Hidden Variables was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. “Peak AI” discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers the technical analysis of the stock market and trends in US and foreign asset performance.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble

For the week ending April 10, 2026, the weekly strategies ensemble (WeeklyReport-WRE) gained 2.7% with equal allocation, without leverage, as compared to a 3.6% gain for the SPY ETF. The SPY ETF is down 0.1% so far this year, while the ensemble has gained 4.1%.

Since January 2022:

• The SPY ETF has gained 54.5%, while the ensemble has gained 60.2%.
• The ensemble has increased by 96.3% with 1.6x leverage.

We would like to remind new subscribers that from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, the ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation. This position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). For open positions and new signals, see Section 3.

Strategic allocation

The SPY ETF gained 3.6% during the week, while the Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was launched late last year, gained 2.5%. Below is the performance since 2020 with annual rebalancing and without leverage.

The SPY ETF is down 0.1% so far this year, while the strategic allocation is up 5.1%.

In Section 3, we include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 8.6%.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

In the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index visited the attractor level discussed in several recent reports and then rebounded due to the combined effect of verbal interventions and hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East. The S&P 500 index has gained 7% in the past two weeks. Will the rebound continue? Below is our updated analysis.

3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble (WRE): Positions and new signals

We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs.

• The ensemble (WRE) has gained 60.2% since the beginning of 2022 vs. 54.5% for the SPY ETF.
• The ensemble has gained 96.3% with 1.6x leverage (volatility-adjusted basis.)

We have computed the leverage using the weekly performance of the SPY ETF and the weekly report (WRE) since 2017.

Strategic allocation (PALSA)

Performance of unleveraged and leveraged allocations

The volatility of the leveraged strategic allocation is matched up to that of the SPY ETF with 1.7x leverage. Below is the performance since 2020.

After the application of leverage:

• The maximum drawdown and volatility match those of the SPY ETF.
• The annualized return increases from 12.4% to 21.2%.
• The risk-adjusted alpha rises from 4.1% to 5.9%.
• The leveraged allocation’ beta is 0.93, vs. 0.54 for the unleveraged case.

Leverage has the potential to outperform the benchmark but at comparable levels of the risk metrics and should be avoided or significantly lowered if the objective is to limit drawdowns.

Strategic allocation: ETFs and weights

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might not update the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Peak AI was originally published on Price Action Lab

We provide below the combined performance of the Dynamic-3 and 0-Beta strategy bundles.

We updated the performance charts on April 9, 2026. The backtests include slippage and a commission of $0.01 per share. For more information about the bundles, click here.

There are a total of five strategies in the bundle combination. Each bundle has three strategies, but they share a common one. The strategies generate signals for liquid ETFs only. The backtest allocates 1/6 of the starting equity to each strategy, with the common strategy receiving double the allocation.

The strategies do not share equity or positions, which is often used to compound performance results. The reason we do not use compounding of this sort is that the backtest represents one time-domain path, and compounding results could drastically differ after another path, thus potentially increasing data mining bias. However, under real trading conditions, a trader could elect to partially compound when appropriate.

Equity performance

Performance metrics and comparison to SPY ETF buy and hold (R_f = 0)

Use the form below to reach out for more information. Please refer to the relevant pages of the bundles for delivery and terms in this recent article.

Disclaimer: The strategies are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness of any strategy for any particular purpose. Under no circumstances should the strategies be treated as financial advice. Please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Copyright notice: Any unauthorized copy, reproduction, distribution, publication, display, modification, or transmission of any part of this report is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Combined Performance of Two Strategy Bundles was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. The “Buffett put” and conclusion

Technical analysis of the stock market, a review of a pair trade, the performance of energy commodities and factors, and trends in US and foreign asset performance are all covered in Section 2.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble

For the week ending April 2, 2026, the weekly strategies ensemble (WeeklyReport-WRE) gained 1.7% with equal allocation, without leverage, as compared to a 3.4% gain for the SPY ETF. The SPY ETF is down 3.6% so far this year, while the ensemble has gained 1.4%.

Since the start of 2022, the SPY ETF has gained 49.2%, while the ensemble has gained 56.1%. The ensemble has increased by 89.7% over the same time with 1.6x leverage. We would like to remind new subscribers that from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, the ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation. This position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). For open positions and new signals, see Section 3.

Strategic allocation

The SPY ETF gained 3.4% during the week, while the Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was launched late last year, gained 2.5%. Below is the performance since 2020 with annual rebalancing and without leverage.

The SPY ETF is down 3.6% so far this year, while the strategic allocation is up 2.5%. In Section 3, we include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 4.2%.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

The S&P 500 index visited the attractor level discussed in several previous weekly reports, and the market rebounded mainly due to the intervention explained in the conclusion at the end of this report. Will the rebound continue? Below is our analysis.

3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble (WRE): Positions and new signals

We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs.

The ensemble (WRE) has gained 56.1% since the beginning of 2022, compared to 49.2% for the SPY ETF. The ensemble with leverage has gained 89.7% with equal allocation and 1.6x leverage on a volatility-adjusted basis. We have computed the leverage using the weekly performance of the SPY ETF and the weekly report (WRE) since 2017.

Strategic allocation (PALSA)

Performance of unleveraged and leveraged allocations

The volatility of the leveraged strategic allocation is matched up to that of the SPY ETF with 1.7x leverage. Below is the performance since 2020.

After the application of leverage, the maximum drawdown and volatility match those of the SPY ETF in the same period, but the annualized return increases from 12.4% to 21.2%, resulting in the risk-adjusted alpha rising from 4% to 5.8%. By design, the leveraged allocation has a high beta, at 0.93, as compared to 0.54 for the unleveraged case. Leverage has the potential to outperform the benchmark but at comparable levels of the risk metrics and should be avoided or significantly lowered if the objective is to limit drawdowns.

Strategic allocation: ETFs and weights

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might not update the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: The Buffett Put was originally published on Price Action Lab

The Dynamic-3 and 0-Beta strategy bundles’ updated performance is provided below.

Click here for the latest article, which includes the combined bundle performance.

The performance charts were updated on April 3, 2026, and they include slippage and a commission of $0.01 per share.

Dynamic-3 Bundle

The Sharpe ratio is 1.45. Since 2010, there has only been one negative year, which was -1.2% in 2022. The maximum drawdown is 11.3%, and the CAGR is 11.7%. The beta is 0.18. Click here for more details. 

0-Beta Bundle

The beta is 0.03. The Sharpe ratio is 1.11. Since 2010, there haven’t been any losing years. The maximum drawdown is roughly 11%, and the CAGR is 9.2%. Click here for more details.

Use the form below to get in touch with us for more information and an invoice. Please refer to the relevant pages of the bundles for delivery and terms.

Disclaimer: The strategies are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness of any strategy for any particular purpose. Under no circumstances should the strategies be treated as financial advice. Please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Copyright notice: Any unauthorized copy, reproduction, distribution, publication, display, modification, or transmission of any part of this report is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Update: Two Strategy Bundles was originally published on Price Action Lab

This premium report provides an update on the monthly rebalanced Market Signal strategies. A Market Signals subscription provides access to the entire report.

Positions and strategy performance: Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Access the full report with a Market Signals subscription. Hundreds of articles are instantly available to you if you subscribe. Subscribers to Market Signals have instant access to more than 200 articles in the Premium Education section, as well as monthly signals for dynamic momentum and hybrid asset allocation.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

Disclaimer: The Weekly Signals are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purpose of the Weekly Signals. Under no circumstances should the premium or weekly signals be treated as financial advice. The author of this website is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Copyright notice: Any unauthorized copy, reproduction, distribution, publication, display, modification, or transmission of any part of this report is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Market Signals for April 1, 2026 was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Conclusion

Technical analysis of the stock market, the performance of energy commodities and factors, and trends in US and foreign asset performance are all covered in Section 2.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble

For the week ending March 27, 2026, the weekly strategies ensemble (WeeklyReport-WRE) gained 0.3% with equal allocation, without leverage, as compared to a 2.2% loss for the SPY ETF. The SPY ETF has dropped 6.7% so far this year, while the ensemble has dropped 0.3%.

Since the start of 2022, the SPY ETF has gained 44.2%, while the ensemble has gained 54.3%. The ensemble has increased by 86.9% over the same time period with 1.6x leverage. We would like to remind new subscribers that from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, the ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation. This position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). For open positions and any new signals, see Section 3.

Strategic allocation

The SPY ETF dropped 2.2% during the week, while the Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was launched late last year, dropped 1%. Below is the performance since 2020 with annual rebalancing and without leverage.

The SPY ETF has lost 6.7% so far this year, while the strategic allocation remains unchanged. In Section 3, we include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

We have chosen a chart with an unconventional indicator for this week’s report because we think it has some significance in the current price action regime and might offer a higher signal-to-noise ratio. We also look at the dynamics of a popular pair trade over the last five years.

3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble (WRE): Positions and new signals

We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs.

The ensemble (WRE) has gained 54.3% since the beginning of 2022, compared to 44.2% for the SPY ETF. Between December 18, 2023, and December 29, 2025, the ensemble held a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation; this position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). 

While the SPY ETF has gained 44.2% since 2022, the weekly strategies (WRE x 1.6) have gained 86.9% with equal allocation and 1.6x leverage on a volatility-adjusted basis. We have computed the leverage using the weekly performance of the SPY ETF and the weekly report (WRE) since 2017.

Strategic allocation (PALSA)

Performance of unleveraged and leveraged allocations

The volatility of the leveraged strategic allocation is matched up to that of the SPY ETF with 1.7x leverage. Below is the performance since 2020.

After the application of leverage, the maximum drawdown and volatility match those of the SPY ETF in the same period, but the annualized return increases from 12.1% to 19.6%, resulting in the risk-adjusted alpha rising from 3.9% to 5.7%. By design, the leveraged allocation has a high beta, at 0.92, as compared to 0.54 for the unleveraged case. Leverage has the potential to outperform the benchmark but at comparable levels of the risk metrics and should be avoided or significantly lowered if the objective is to limit drawdowns.

Strategic allocation: ETFs and weights

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might not update the charts if market conditions alter price levels or any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Mission Accomplished was originally published on Price Action Lab

Blogs and mainstream media articles clearly show that many, if not most, market analysts misunderstand why gold had an explosive rally and, more importantly, why it recently fell. Short answer: gold fell because it served its purpose. Counterintuitive? Read below.

The claim that gold fell because it served its purpose is counterintuitive, but it is what actually happened. But first, let’s look at the chart, and then I’ll make this brief.

Gold did not gain much during the lockdowns or after the Ukraine invasion; in fact, it fell after the war started in Europe.

The rally in gold started with fears about dedollarization and a rise in US public debt and accelerated with the 12-day Iran war on June 12, 2025.

Gold does not serve as a hedge; rather, it functions as another asset for diversification, influenced by various factors. Gold is also considered a “safe haven” asset in the case of a major catastrophe.

Some analysts wonder why gold has fallen about 17% from its all-time closing highs amid escalating tension in the Middle East. The answer is that it fell because it served its purpose. And what was the purpose? The main purpose was to use gold to cover losses from financial and other assets, which is precisely what is happening right now.

Gold fulfilled its purpose for those who conducted thorough research and recognized that the initial strike on Iran was merely the commencement of a larger operation. Most market analysts use first-order logic that is useful for everyday mundane tasks. When it comes to geopolitics, bluffing and other tactics contaminate the premises of first-order logic with noise, and conclusions are almost always wrong. For these reasons, the best way to invest in gold is via systematic strategies that eliminate sentiment and simple logic but operate based on price action. However, systematic strategies are not a panacea and are more difficult to develop and implement than some people think.

Conclusion: Gold served its purpose, and this is the reason it is now falling. If gold begins to rise again, it could indicate that some astute market participants have once again done their homework.

Disclaimer: These articles are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the articles. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; therefore, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

You may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Gold Fell Because it Served its Purpose was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Weekly market summary, price action analysis, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Conclusion

Section 2 includes an analysis of stock market technicals, performance of factors and energy commodities, and US and international asset performance trends.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble

For the week ending March 20, 2026, the weekly strategies ensemble (WeeklyReport-WRE) fell 0.8% with equal allocation, without leverage, as compared to a 1.8% loss for the SPY ETF. Year-to-date, the ensemble is down 0.6%, while the SPY ETF is down 4.6%.

The ensemble has gained 53.9% since the beginning of 2022, while the SPY ETF has increased by 47.5%. With 1.6x leverage, the ensemble has gained 86.2% in the same period. We remind new subscribers that the ensemble held a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, and this position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). See Section 3 for open positions and any new signals.

Strategic allocation

The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was introduced late last year, fell 2.9% for the week, while the SPY ETF fell 1.8%. Below is the performance since 2020 with annual rebalancing and without leverage.

The year-to-date return is 1%. In Section 3, we include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage. The year-to-date return is 1.7%.

2. Weekly market summary, price action analysis, and market forecast

3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble (WRE): Positions and new signals

We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs.

The ensemble (WRE) has gained 53.9% since the beginning of 2022, while the SPY ETF has increased by 47.5%. The ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, and this position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). 

Since 2022, on a volatility-adjusted basis, the weekly strategies (WRE x1.6) have increased by 86.2% with equal allocation and 1.6x leverage, as compared to a 47.5% gain for the SPY ETF. We calculate the leverage based on weekly performance for the weekly report (WRE) and SPY ETF since 2017.

Strategic allocation (PALSA)

Performance of unleveraged and leveraged allocations

The volatility of the leveraged strategic allocation is matched up to that of the SPY ETF with 1.7x leverage. Below is the performance since 2020.

After the application of leverage, the maximum drawdown and volatility match those of the SPY ETF in the same period, but the annualized return increases from 12.3% to 20%, resulting in the risk-adjusted alpha rising from 3.9% to 5.7%. By design, the leveraged allocation has a high beta, at 0.92, as compared to 0.54 for the unleveraged case. Leverage has the potential to outperform the benchmark but at comparable levels of the risk metrics and should be avoided, or significantly lowered, if the objective is to limit drawdowns.

Strategic allocation: ETFs and weights

To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Specific disclaimer: This article includes charts that may reference price levels. If market conditions change the price levels or any analysis based on them, we may not update the charts. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the articles. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; therefore, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: The Elusive Search for a Hedge was originally published on Price Action Lab

The update is for Premium Articles subscribers. To access the report, you must subscribe to Premium Articles.

The following is the most important question that smart traders and investors have about this war in the Middle East:

Disclaimer: These articles are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the articles. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; therefore, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

Price Action Lab Alert: Decision Making, Gold, and Equities was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Weekly market summary, price action analysis, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Conclusion

Section 2 includes an analysis of stock market technicals, performance of factors and energy commodities, and US and international asset performance trends.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble

For the week ending March 13, 2026, the weekly strategies ensemble (WeeklyReport-WRE) fell 1.3% with equal allocation, without leverage, as compared to a 1.5% loss for the SPY ETF. Year-to-date, the ensemble is up 0.2%. The SPY ETF is down 2.9%.

The ensemble has gained 55.1% since the beginning of 2022, while the SPY ETF has increased by 50.2%. With 1.6x leverage, the ensemble has gained 88.2% in the same period. The ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, and this position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). See Section 3 for open positions and any new signals.

Strategic allocation

The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was introduced late last year, fell 1% for the week, while the SPY ETF fell 1.6%. Below is the performance since 2020 with annual rebalancing and without leverage.

The year-to-date return is 4%. In Section 3, we include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage. The year-to-date return is 6.8%.

2. Weekly market summary, price action analysis, and market forecast

3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble (WRE): Positions and new signals

We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs.

The ensemble (WRE) has gained 55.1% since the beginning of 2022, while the SPY ETF has increased by 50.2%. The ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, and this position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). 

Since 2022, on a volatility-adjusted basis, the weekly strategies (WRE x1.6) have increased by 88.2% with equal allocation and 1.6x leverage, as compared to a 50.2% gain for the SPY ETF. We calculate the leverage based on weekly performance for the weekly report (WRE) and SPY ETF since 2017.

Strategic allocation (PALSA)

Performance of unleveraged and leveraged allocations

The volatility of the leveraged strategic allocation is matched up to that of the SPY ETF with 1.7x leverage. Below is the performance since 2020.

After the application of leverage, the maximum drawdown and volatility match those of the SPY ETF in the same period, but the annualized return increases from 12.9% to 21%, resulting in a risk-adjusted alpha of 7.1%. By design, the leveraged allocation has a high beta, at 0.91, as compared to 0.53 for the unleveraged case. Leverage has the potential to outperform the benchmark but at comparable levels of the risk metrics and should be avoided, or significantly lowered, if the objective is to limit drawdowns.

Strategic allocation: ETFs and weights

To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Specific disclaimer: This article includes charts that may reference price levels. If market conditions change the price levels or any analysis based on them, we may not update the charts. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the articles. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; therefore, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: In Search of an Off-Ramp was originally published on Price Action Lab

The Concord fallacy not only applies to trading and investing but also to financial newsletter subscriptions.

During times of market turmoil, some traders and investors not only exit profitable positions and continue to hold the unprofitable ones but also terminate profitable subscriptions to newsletters and double down on those that may have contributed to the losses.

The Concord fallacy, also referred to as the sunk cost fallacy, arises when investors choose to continue financing a losing project due to the significant time and funds they have already invested.

In trading and investing, it is understood that most retail participants in the market operate under the influence of the sunk cost fallacy and tend to sell winners while holding losers. The drivers of this fallacy and how it became dominant are complex but usually are due to, among others,

• fear that winners will also lose money.
• hope that losers will recover.
• resistance to accepting losses (ego).

What is less understood is that the sunk cost fallacy is also dominant in the newsletter subscription space in a similar way as in trading and investing.

During market turmoil, some newsletter subscribers cannot afford to pay for several subscriptions and decide to sell those that have already made money because of misapplication of the concept of mean reversion.

Mean reversion is not a well-understood dynamic because, unlike trend-following, which is a simpler concept but hard in execution, it has many different variants and applications in the markets. But more importantly, mean reversion refers to a positive long-term expectation despite the risk of sustaining occasional large losses, which are actually due to mean reversion.

We can’t elaborate on mean reversion here, but we’ve done so in other blog posts. Needless to say, a large number of newsletter providers do not also appear to understand mean reversion. Let’s emphasize that mean reversion is not about the next trade. If the reader sees this attempt anywhere, they must be cautious because there is an apparent confusion between time-domain and ensemble analysis; mean reversion is about a positive long-term expectation. The misapplication of the concept is usually the result of some effort to mix quantitative flavor with discretionary analysis, which is common in some newsletters where the authors do not have a quantitative background.

In addition to the misapplication of mean reversion, many market participants continue to subscribe to newsletters that may also misapply mean reversion, despite experiencing losses for various other reasons.

• The subscription cost is high (escalation of commitment).
• The newsletter authors use social engagement tactics.

The author remembers the case of a friend who was working for a bank, and they had a subscription to an expensive newsletter. The newsletter authors, some of them with Ph.D. qualifications, insisted around 2010 that because of quantitative easing, bond yields would rally, and that would cause the stock market to crash to the 2009 bottom or even lower. Despite continuing losses, the bank did not terminate the newsletter subscription due to a large investment already made. But here comes the intriguing part:

The authors of the newsletter frequently called the bank and stayed on top of market discussions despite their contrarian views, also sharing information about trips, families, etc., to create a bond that would reduce the chances of subscription cancellation. My friend understood that they were following the wrong people and on many occasions asked for my opinion. I tried to explain that those Ph.D.s probably had excellent academic records but limited hours of screen time and market experience. The result was that the bank team was fired at some point, and my friend had to look elsewhere to start a business. He is an outstanding person, and with the right guidance from the right people in a different field I do not have much experience in, he became very successful. Some other people from that team probably were not as successful.

A red flag

Intense and frequent social media engagement may be a sign of underlying weakness. Some years ago, a social media follower contacted me to say that the losses from following a newsletter were large, but the author was heavily invested in public relations. Despite this, I have strong indications that this follower remains a subscriber of that newsletter due to the sunk cost fallacy and other cognitive biases reinforced by marketing tactics, which I will not mention here in detail.

Summary

Some newsletters are beneficial, and some are detrimental. Maintaining a newsletter subscription despite losses, under intense social engagement and marketing tactics, may indicate that sunk cost and other cognitive fallacies are playing a dominant role in the decision-making process.

Disclaimer: These articles are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the articles. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; therefore, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

You may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

The Concord Fallacy in Markets and Financial Newsletters was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Weekly market summary, price action analysis, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Conclusion

Section 2 includes an analysis of stock market technicals, performance of factors and energy commodities, and US and international asset performance trends.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble

For the week ending March 6, 2026, the weekly strategies ensemble (WeeklyReport-WRE) fell 2.8% with equal allocation, without leverage, as compared to a 2% loss for the SPY ETF. The year-to-date return of the ensemble is 1.5%. With 1.6x leverage, the year-to-date return is 2.4%. The SPY ETF is down 1.4%.

The ensemble has gained 57.2% since the beginning of 2022, while the SPY ETF has increased by 52.5%. With 1.6x leverage, the ensemble has gained 91.5% in the same period. The ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, and this position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). See Section 3 for open positions and any new signals.

Strategic allocation

The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was introduced late last year, fell 2.5% for the week, while the SPY ETF fell 2%. Below is the performance since 2020 with annual rebalancing and without leverage.

The year-to-date return is 5.1%. In Section 3, we include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage. The year-to-date return is 8.6%.

2. Weekly market summary, price action analysis, and market forecast

3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Tactical ensemble (WRE): Positions and new signals

We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs.

The ensemble (WRE) has gained 57.2% since the beginning of 2022, while the SPY ETF has increased by 55.2%. The ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, and this position gained 115.3% (unleveraged). 

Since 2022, on a volatility-adjusted basis, the weekly strategies (WRE x1.6) have increased by 91.5% with equal allocation and 1.6x leverage, as compared to a 52.5% gain for the SPY ETF. We calculate the leverage based on weekly performance for the weekly report (WRE) and SPY ETF since 2017.

Strategic allocation (PALSA)

Performance of unleveraged and leveraged allocations

The volatility of the leveraged strategic allocation is matched up to that of the SPY ETF with 1.7x leverage. Below is the performance since 2020.

After the application of leverage, the maximum drawdown and volatility match those of the SPY ETF in the same period, but the annualized return increases from 13.1% to 21.4%, resulting in a risk-adjusted alpha of 7.2%. By design, the leveraged allocation has a high beta, at 0.91, as compared to 0.53 for the unleveraged case. Leverage has the potential to outperform the benchmark but at comparable levels of the risk metrics and should be avoided, or significantly lowered, if the objective is to limit drawdowns.

Strategic allocation: ETFs and weights

To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Specific disclaimer: This article includes charts that may reference price levels. If market conditions change the price levels or any analysis based on them, we may not update the charts. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the articles. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; therefore, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Between a Rock and a Hard Place was originally published on Price Action Lab