The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast, including an update of the technical analysis of S&P 500 price action. We include a historical analysis of the seven-week breadth deterioration in the stock market.
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Macro dynamics discussion and conclusion.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, October 2, 2026:

-The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) was unchanged. Year-to-date: +21.6%. The allocation is up 28.2% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3.
-The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) fell 0.4%. Year-to-date: +21.3%. The allocation is up 36.2% year-to-date with 1.7x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.
-The SPY ETF fell 0.2%. Year-to-date: +13.7%.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Major market asset trends

Top 10 S&P 500 winners this week

Bottom 10 S&P 500 losers this week

Sector performance

Summary: Bonds and commodities fell, while equities were mixed and the US dollar gained. Tech stocks (XLK) gained with key indexes making new all-time highs, while health care (XLV), financials (XLF), and communication services (XLC) fell the most. Software stocks remain under pressure, and this week there was also some profit-taking in computer hardware stocks. The rally in cruise line stocks (CCL, RCL) was likely due to a technical rebound after a six-week losing streak in the S&P 500 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Index.

Apart from a technical rebound, there is currently no reason to attribute any significant change in the macro environment or geopolitical conditions to the S&P 500 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Index’s rebound. Note that year-to-date performance fell precipitously into the red after the temporary ceasefire in the Middle East war ended in late August.

Analysis of S&P 500 index price action

The S&P 500 index fell 0.3% for the week. Below, we update our analysis from last week and also include an analysis of a price action pattern.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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Yields Mean Reversion – Weekly Market Report was originally published on Price Action Lab

This premium report includes an update on the monthly rebalanced Market Signal strategies. A Market Signals subscription provides access to the entire report.

Click here for the latest report after the rebalance.

Positions and strategy performance: Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Access the full report with a Market Signals subscription. Hundreds of articles are instantly available to you if you subscribe. Subscribers to Market Signals have instant access to more than 200 articles in the Premium Education section, as well as monthly signals for dynamic momentum and hybrid asset allocation.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

Disclaimer: The Weekly Signals are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purpose of the Weekly Signals. Under no circumstances should the premium or weekly signals be treated as financial advice. The author of this website is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Copyright notice: Any unauthorized copy, reproduction, distribution, publication, display, modification, or transmission of any part of this report is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Market Signals for October 1, 2026 was originally published on Price Action Lab

On Monday, September 28, 2026, spot gold fell 4%, the S&P 500 index lost 0.8%, and bond yields added six basis points. We looked at similar moves going back in history and included some key statistics. To access the full report, you must subscribe to Premium Articles.

Below is a histogram of spot gold (XAUUSD) since 1982, along with statistics.

The 4% drop on Monday, September 28, 2026, was roughly four standard deviations from the mean and six mean absolute deviations. Only 38 daily losses of more than 4% have occurred since 1982, and this fact makes the move significant.

Below is the distribution of spot gold daily returns and a few key facts about its statistics that most speculators in this market seem to ignore, based on posts on social media and blogs. We argue that every serious investor and trader in the gold market should have knowledge of those statistics.

Disclaimer: These articles are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the articles. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; therefore, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Statistical analysis in R. Data provider: Norgate Data

Fat-Tailed Move in Gold and Rare Events in Market Assets was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast, including an update of the technical analysis of S&P 500 price action. We discuss bond market dynamics and key statistics that are often missing from analysis.
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion: In this report, we discuss the constraints of US policy and their relation to stock market dynamics.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, September 25, 2026:

-The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 1.2%. Year-to-date: +21.6%. The allocation is up 28.2% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.
-The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 0.7%. Year-to-date: +21.7%. The allocation is up 36.9% year-to-date with 1.7x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.
-The SPY ETF gained 1.3%. Year-to-date: +14.0%.

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Major market asset trends

Top 5 S&P 500 winners this week

Bottom 5 S&P 500 losers this week

Sector performance

Summary: For the week, bonds and commodities fell, while equities and the US dollar moved higher. Tech stocks (XLK, XLC) rallied, while rising yields put pressure on interest-sensitive utilities (XLU), real estate (XLRE), and financials (XLF). Energy (XLE) also fell due to uncertainty about a deal to end the war in the Middle East but remains the best-performing sector year-to-date.

Analysis of S&P 500 index price action

The S&P 500 index gained 1.2% for the week. Below, we update our analysis from last week.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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Weekly Market Report: Geopolitical Constraints was originally published on Price Action Lab

Risk parity for stock and bond portfolios may offer better diversification but at the expense of a lower total return. Below are a few examples, along with a comparison to an inverse volatility portfolio. To access the full article, you must subscribe to Premium Articles.

We will consider a stock and bond portfolio with SPY and TLT ETFs only. As we have written in other articles, there are many options for the stocks-bonds portfolio, depending on the choice of ETFs for stocks and bonds.

All backtest results below are with annual rebalancing and do not include commissions and slippage. The backtest period is from 01/03/2005 to 09/21/2026. The objective is to compare performance. First, we start with the typical 60-40 portfolio using SY and TLT ETFs.

Other than an 8.5% loss in 2008, investors enjoyed solid performance until 2021, and then the shock came with the 60-40 portfolio plunging 23.4% due to both falling stocks and bonds in 2022. Note that beta for this portfolio is relatively high, at 0.46, and the correlation with the SPY ETF stands at 0.83. But how has a risk-parity portfolio performed?

Now, we have to pause. Everyone can find the formulas for calculating weights for risk parity and will realize that a “lookback period enters the chat.” The lookback period is required for calculating the standard deviations and correlation of the assets and can be a rolling fixed window or an anchored window to some original date. We did both here, using a 252-day period to calculate the standard deviations and correlations.

Note that the allocation to SPY and TLT ETFs is calculated at the start of each year and remains constant throughout the entire year to reduce transaction cost and slippage. But theoretically, we can rebalance daily, weekly, or monthly.

The risk-parity performance with a 252-day lookback period is inferior when compared to that of the standard 60-40 portfolio. In fact, the loss in 2022 is larger, 24.3%, versus 23.4% for the 60-40 portfolio, but the variation may be random. Beta is 0.25, and the correlation with the SPY ETF is at 0.49.

Let us look at an anchored window starting at the inception of the TLT ETF to calculate the standard deviations and the correlation. Below are the results.

Performance is worse for an anchored window lookback period. There is a significant drop in annualized returns and the Sharpe ratio. However, beta fell from 0.25 with a 252-day lookback to 0.17, and correlation is at 0.34, meaning that the anchored window may provide better overall diversification but at a cost, as expected.

Correlation is likely an issue, since it is dynamic and a random variable. We can try an inverse volatility version with weights that depend solely on standard deviation. Below we include the results, a comparison table, and our conclusion.

Disclaimer: These articles are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the articles. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; therefore, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

Stock-Bond Portfolio: 60-40 or Risk Parity? was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 includes an update of the technical analysis of S&P 500 price action.
Section 3 reviews the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses the rate policy and the current dynamic versus past regimes.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, September 18, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) fell 0.1%. Year-to-date: +20.2%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) fell 0.1%. Year-to-date: +20.8%.
• The SPY ETF fell 0.1%. Year-to-date: +12.6%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 26.3% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 35.4% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Major market assets this week

Top 5 S&P 100 winners

Bottom 5 S&P 100 losers

Summary: For the week, equities and commodities fell, while bonds and the US dollar moved higher. Tech stocks gained, while financial stocks came under pressure due to the rate hike. The financial sector (XLF) and bank (KBE) ETFs fell 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, while the tech sector (XLK) ETF gained 1%. Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) gained 9.7% (YTD +654.8%), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 8.5% (YTD +161.4%), with the demand for computer hardware staying elevated.

Analysis of S&P 500 index price action

The S&P 500 index fell 0.1% for the week. Below, we update our analysis from last week.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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Weekly Market Report: Dovish Hike Harbinger was originally published on Price Action Lab

Due to planned changes in the way market exchanges operate, certain price action anomalies will disappear.

One example is the overnight anomaly that we have documented and analyzed on the Price Action Lab Blog in the past 10 years. This anomaly will disappear when they enable 24-hour trading, which may happen soon.

Until 2020, all gains in the SPY ETF were due to overnight (ON) gaps (red line), and regular trading hours (RTH) had no contribution to the total return since inception (green line.) This price action anomaly was never fully explained by practitioners or academics, because in markets cause and effect are elusive notions. Most practitioners accepted this market anomaly for what it was: an anomaly.

However, notice how the strength of the anomaly started to wane after the pandemic. One explanation for the increase in the contribution of RTH to the total return of the SPY ETF was the surge in day trading during the pandemic and the rise of 0DTE options activity. However, no hypothesis can explain what occurs in the markets and especially why anomalies exist or cease to exist. Year-to-date, the relative performance of ON vs. RTH has been random.

If we claim that the performance of this overnight anomaly in the SPY ETF is undergoing mean reversion, we may not be far off, and after the implementation of 24-hour trading, we may witness its sudden termination.

Price action anomalies are not only useful for trading but also for understanding market dynamics and can even offer hints about asset allocation and risk management. This realization has been rarely discussed, and the charts that follow will surprise many people.

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 includes CPI and S&P 500 price action updates.
Section 3 reviews the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses the next steps in geopolitics and the impact on markets.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, September 11, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) fell 0.4%. Year-to-date: +20.4%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) fell 0.7%. Year-to-date: +21.0%.
• The SPY ETF dropped 0.8%. Year-to-date: +12.7%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 26.6% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 35.6% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Major market assets this week

Top 5 S&P 500 winners

Bottom 5 S&P 500 losers

Summary: In the holiday-shortened week, equities and bonds were down, while commodities and the US dollar moved higher. Semiconductor and computer hardware stocks gained, while pharmaceuticals and defense stocks fell.

CPI Update

“In August 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted, up 3.4% over the prior 12 months (not seasonally adjusted).” Year-over-year, energy rose 16.3%, and food gained 2.7%. All items less than food and energy increased by 2.4%. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

We update our inflation chart after each CPI release. Since 2020, the official inflation rate has been 30.4%. The effective Fed funds rate is at 3.63% (3.5%-3.75%) and about 25 basis points above the official YoY inflation rate. The current Fed Funds-CPI spread is unlikely to cause inflation to fall anywhere close to the 2% target, assuming it remains the target, especially if the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe that impact energy prices continue. In the event of escalation, inflation may rise further, but the odds of a sizeable rate hike are very low. It is important to remember that there are always two sides to a coin, with both winners and losers:

Persistent inflation at around 3.5% does not help much in inflating away the debt, but it does decrease the real value of money and slows the growth of the debt-to-GDP ratio. The winners are equity investors, who in most cases see their portfolio value increasing in real terms, and the losers are holders of long-duration government debt.

Since 2000, investors in the 60-40 portfolio with SPY and TLT ETFs have realized around a 62% return, while it took three years to recover the portfolio highs after the 2022 bear market. Investors in TLT ETF are down 27%, but SPY ETF investors have enjoyed a gain of 160.5%. Politicians mostly care about equity investors, while the bulk of the investments in bonds come from foreigners, pension funds, and insurance that match future liability streams to bond payments. Therefore, the decision to let inflation be high is the most politically palatable at this juncture. However, most investors who have experienced many different market cycles fear the second-order non-linearity effects of keeping inflation high for an extended period and at some point may also reduce equity market exposure.

Analysis of S&P 500 index price action

The S&P 500 index fell 0.8% for the week. Below, we update our analysis from last week.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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Weekly Market Report: The Next Step was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Labor Day, Monday, September 7, 2026.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 includes an update on S&P 500 price action, a trade setup, and a pair trade.
Section 3 reviews the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses the mechanism that has provided support to the stock market this year.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, September 4, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 1%. Year-to-date: +20.9%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 0.6%. Year-to-date: +21.8%.
• The SPY ETF gained 0.1%. Year-to-date: +13.5%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 27.2% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 37% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Major market assets

Top 5 S&P 500 winners

Bottom 5 S&P 500 losers

Summary: Equities were mixed before the Labor Day holiday, bonds were down on falling odds of an interest rate cut, commodities gained on the back of higher crude prices, and the US dollar fell. Computer hardware and semiconductor stocks surged due to rising demand from AI, data centers, and consumers.

Analysis of S&P 500 index price action

The S&P 500 index gained 0.1% this week. Below, we update our analysis from last week.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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Weekly Market Report: The Mechanism was originally published on Price Action Lab

This premium report includes an update on the monthly rebalanced Market Signal strategies. A Market Signals subscription provides access to the entire report.

Positions and strategy performance: Monday, August 31, 2026

Access the full report with a Market Signals subscription. Hundreds of articles are instantly available to you if you subscribe. Subscribers to Market Signals have instant access to more than 200 articles in the Premium Education section, as well as monthly signals for dynamic momentum and hybrid asset allocation.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

Disclaimer: The Weekly Signals are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purpose of the Weekly Signals. Under no circumstances should the premium or weekly signals be treated as financial advice. The author of this website is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Copyright notice: Any unauthorized copy, reproduction, distribution, publication, display, modification, or transmission of any part of this report is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Market Signals for September 1, 2026 was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 includes an update of S&P 500 price action.
Section 3 reviews the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses the correlation between crude oil and inflation and the latest news about the Venezuelan oil deal.

Update: We simplified the reporting of performance statistics for the tactical and strategic allocations.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, August 28, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) fell 0.4%. Year-to-date: +19.7%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) fell 0.3%. Year-to-date: +21%.
• The SPY ETF gained 0.5%. Year-to-date: +13.4%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 25.6% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 35.8% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

We start with the list of S&P 500 stocks that are down more than 30% year-to-date.

Sixteen stocks are down more than 31% year to date. Let us look at NIKE Inc. (NKE), a stock that is also in the Dow-30:

NKE fell to a 12-year low recently. As the chart shows, NKE has been in a downtrend for 1,206 trading days and has fallen 75.8% from the all-time highs of November 2021. We believe that NKE is the next target for replacement in the Dow-30, but, like others before it, once it is removed, it may start recovering.

The recent decline looks similar to the decline in the early 1980s, when the stock fell 75% from previous highs, but the market regime and the competition are different. Furthermore, notice the long chop between 1997 and 2004, with duration of 1,742 trading days. Although some analysts think the stock is a buy with a small allocation, others could argue that this small allocation has a higher chance of being profitable in other stocks or assets in general.

Analysis of S&P 500 index price action

The S&P 500 index gained 0.5% this week. Below, we update our analysis from last week.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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Weekly Market Report: Crude Oil and Inflation was originally published on Price Action Lab

We look at the variation in the performance of the weekly and high-alpha strategies due to the choice of MOC or MOO trade orders.

For the latest performance update and more details about the strategies, see this article.

The last date for all backtests is August 21, 2026. An “O” next to the strategy name means trades are executed at the next open, and a “C” means they are executed at the close as soon as the signal is generated.

Note that, in the case of MOC orders, it is important to implement an algorithm that indicates whether a signal will be generated at the close of the week or month. In most cases, the signal can be determined well in advance: in the case of weekly strategies, maybe a day in advance, and in the case of monthly strategies, often several days in advance. However, there are rare cases when the signal can only be decided after the close, and MOO orders must be used.

The objective of this study is to calculate the theoretical differences in strategy performance when using MOO or MOC orders.

Weekly Strategies

Summary: Performance for Dow-30 stocks is better with MOO orders, but for ETFs it is better with MOC orders.

Monthly Strategies

Summary: As the timeframe increases, we expect convergence between MOO and MOC orders. The results are slightly better with asset ETFs (CSMO, SBRO) and similar for sector ETFs in the stock market.

Bundle results

Summary: Weekly CAGR performance is better by 40 basis points with MOO orders, while monthly performance is better by 60 basis points with MOC orders.

Conclusion

In the limit of large samples, we expect no differences between MOO and MOC orders for weekly and monthly strategies due to the slow timeframe and large payoff ratios. The differences we have observed are statistically indistinguishable. However, in the short term, there may be differences due to random price paths that favor one type of order over another.

Disclaimer: The strategies are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness of any strategy for any particular purpose. Under no circumstances should the strategies be treated as financial advice. Please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Weekly and Monthly Strategies: MOO vs. MOC Trade Performance was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 includes a review of the performance of a pair trade from a weekly report published two months ago.
Section 3 reviews the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses the rebound in gold and Bitcoin.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, August 21, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) fell 1.4%. Year-to-date: +20.2%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 0.1%. Year-to-date: +21.4%.
• The SPY ETF fell 1.4%. Year-to-date: +12.9%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 26.4% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 36.3% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Review of long biotech-short semiconductor pair trade

In the report for the week ending June 26, 2026, we wrote about the long biotech-short semiconductor pair trade using IBB and SMH ETFs. The trade has gained 11.1% from the open on June 29, 2026, as of the close of this week.

The crowded semiconductor trade (SOXX, SMH) is under selling pressure, while biotech (IBB, XBI) is benefitting from the use of AI. Pharmaceuticals (XLV) are receiving a positive spillover drift from biotech.

There are still high odds that the profitability of the long IBB-short SMH pair trade will increase. Caveat emptor: While semis are a crowded trade, biotech has always been a speculative trade. The pair trade still looks attractive, but sound risk management dictates a small allocation.

Analysis of S&P 500 index price action

The S&P 500 index fell 1.4% this week in what may appear as a short-term topping action. Below is a scenario we believe has high odds and conditions that will render it invalid.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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Weekly Market Report: Gold and Crypto was originally published on Price Action Lab

We updated the performance of the weekly and monthly strategy bundles to August 19, 2026. Year-to-date, the weekly strategy bundle is up 14.1% without leverage, and the monthly strategy bundle is up 26.1%.

While a few daily strategies are down year-to-date due to random price action in this timeframe, with the 10-strategy bundle up about 1%, weekly and monthly strategies have performed quite well, and this supports what some traders already know: on top of asset and strategy diversification, it is also important to have timeframe diversification, as different market regimes impact price action in unpredictable ways.

The weekly strategy bundle is up 14.1% year-to-date.

Click here for more details. 

The monthly strategy bundle, also called the High Alpha bundle, is up 26.1% year-to-date. These strategies use 2x leverage. Without any leverage, the bundle is up 15.6% year-to-date.

Click here for more details. 

Related article on August 24, 2026: Click here.

Special offer

The retail price for the weekly bundle is $4,495, and for the monthly bundle it is $3,495. For a limited-time-only offer, we offer both bundles at a 30% discount, and the final price is $5,595. This special offer will expire on August 30, 2026, at midnight.

We provide the rules only in plain English and simple math. We do not provide any code. The rules we provide are sufficient for programming the strategies on a trading platform. The strategies are not data-mined and have simple rules. Do not expect anything overly complicated. Contact us if you decide to take advantage of this limited-time offer.

Disclaimer: The strategies are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness of any particular purpose of any strategy. Under no circumstances should the strategies be treated as financial advice. Please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Weekly and Monthly Strategies Update was originally published on Price Action Lab

There are three essential features of market crash predictions:

1. Timing of the correction
2. Drawdown depth
3. Recovery period

A 30% correction with a recovery period of about six months, as seen during the 2020 pandemic, is different from a 48% correction with a recovery period of seven and a half years, as in the 1970s, or the dot-com correction, which had a 47% drop lasting a little more than seven years. Here is a chart that shows the S&P 500 index recovery periods and magnitude of drawdowns.

If investors know that a correction will be short-lived, they can stay invested in the market. If the forecast is for a protracted correction, equity investors may elect to move to cash or reduce exposure to equities and wait for the right opportunity to deploy capital again.

If someone on social media or in financial media and blogs argues that a correction is coming, they are not telling me anything useful, other than perhaps being involved in a clickbait campaign. Every investor with skin in the game knows that a correction will eventually arrive. The three features listed above are essential to guide decisions: timing, depth, and duration. As far as I know, no one has ever predicted all three features in advance. Therefore, predictions of stock market crashes are not useful in guiding investment decisions. Simple timing strategies can probably provide value and protection. Click here for a recent article on the blog app.  

Premium Content

Why Most Market Crash Predictions Are Useless was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance. We consider asset ETFs and the current market trends and dynamics and their effect on strategies.
Section 3 reviews the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses how skipping the noise is the first step to successful trading and investing.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, August 14, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 1.6% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +21.9%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 1.6%. Year-to-date: +21.2%.
• The SPY ETF gained 0.4%. Year-to-date: +14.4%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 28.7% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 36.1% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

The S&P 500 index is up 4% in the first two weeks of August, with most gains coming in the first two trading days of the month.

Specifically, the S&P 500 index gained 3.3% in the first two days of August and received a solid boost for a month that historically has delivered flat returns on average. However, the following chart challenges the perception that August has not contributed much to the stock market’s total returns.

If we use Dow Jones Industrial Average prices to go further back, we find out that August delivered positive returns for 15 consecutive years between 1922 and 1936! In fact, August was profitable even during the worst crash of the US stock market in the early 1930s. Therefore, the perception about August being a flat month has been mainly due to sampling bias. We have identified the source of the bias below.

In August 1998, the S&P 500 index fell 14.5% due to the Russian ruble crisis. The 1998 loss is the largest for the month of August for the S&P 500 index since 1945 and has skewed the performance to flat, although the index has been up 56.3% of the time for this particular month. Note that including month-to-date returns, the index has been up in August for three consecutive years, and since 1945 it has made several three-year winning streaks for the particular month. Therefore, we will ignore any references to August seasonality based on average flat returns. The index may finish this month up or down, but seasonality and calendar effects are not significant.

Below is an excerpt from this week’s Market Signals update, which references the August 1998 Russian ruble crisis and the US stock market correction.

August brings back memories of market chaos to some older investors due to the 1998 Ruble crisis, when the S&P 500 fell 14.5% for the month, with the bulk of the losses occurring in three days, from August 27 to August 31, 1998. The sell-off wiped out many leveraged traders and investors who had made large bets that the dot-com rally would continue undisturbed. The index avoided an official declaration of a bear market (-20% from the previous high) by less than 1% and recaptured the July 1998 highs by late November of the same year, but many market participants had already received margin calls.

There were two main types of losers: (A) Those who panicked and sold everything at a significant loss, and (B), those who remained in the market but then sold everything in early October 1998, when the market tested again the lows of August, in fear of a continuation of the sell-off and a bear market.

We are not concerned about price action in this month due to seasonality. We are more concerned about the following potential divergences.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Skipping the Noise was originally published on Price Action Lab

A few changes and additions to the daily mean reversion are coming. The subscription will be closed to new members starting August 14, 2026, for about three months.

For next year, we plan to combine the main mean-reversion strategy and the bonus momentum and mean-reversion switching strategy, as the latter provides diversification in both assets and signal generation. The consolidation will simplify daily reporting and signal access.

We also plan to add a bonus daily long-only mean-reversion strategy for Dow-30 stocks. We will probably add the signals in October, with the official start in January 2027. The strategy trades up to three Dow-30 stocks in a long-only mean-reversion mode. Below is a backtest of the strategy.

We used the Norgate Data series with Dow-30 delistings for the backtest. The strategy exhibits a certain degree of robustness with performance metrics that will allow increased diversification for the daily mean reversion signals. Specifically, the beta is 0.38 and the correlation is 0.44, while the Sharpe ratio is 0.91.

New sign-ups for the daily mean-reversion subscription will be closed starting August 14 for about three months. If you would like us to inform you when the subscription becomes available, please contact us.

About the risks of mean-reversion strategies

Mean-reversion strategies are risky because the signals go against the short-term trend. Most strategies do not use a stop loss because it destroys profitability.

Mean-reversion strategies are for professional traders who understand risk and can manage it effectively. Amateur traders can lose money even when using a profitable mean-reversion strategy because of fear of taking signals that go against the short-term trend. Usually, professionals allocate a small percentage of capital to mean-reversion strategies.

Disclaimer: Investing in any market, including exchange-traded products (ETPs, ETFs, and ETNs), could result in a total loss of capital. We only provide the daily mean reversion signals (Signals) for informational purposes, not as investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness of the Signals for any particular purpose. You should never treat the Signals as financial advice. At times, we may hold long or short positions, calls or puts, in several exchange-traded products mentioned in these reports. Furthermore, the author of this website is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Mean Reversion Subscription Update was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance. We consider asset ETFs and the current market trends and dynamics and their effect on strategies.
Section 3 reviews the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 argues that deflation may be an inevitable policy choice and there are two scenarios, the good and the bad.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, August 7, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 2.6% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +20%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 3.9%. Year-to-date: +19.3%.
• The SPY ETF gained 3.5%. Year-to-date: +14%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 26.2% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 32.8% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

The chart below shows the recent price action in the stock market, and we briefly discuss its impact on market participants and trading strategies.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Unavoidable Deflation was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance. We consider asset ETFs and the current market trends and dynamics, focusing on potential signals hidden in price action.
Section 3 reviews the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses the latest decision by the Fed to keep rates unchanged and the references to a “magic wand.”

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, July 31, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) fell 0.7% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +17%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) fell 0.4%. Year-to-date: +14.8%.
• The SPY ETF gained 1.1%. Year-to-date: +10.1%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 22.2% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 25.2% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

A notable development in July was the sell-off in semiconductor stocks. Specifically, the SMH ETF fell 17.6% in July. Let us add some context here to counter the gloom and doom on financial social media and in the blogosphere.

In the three-month period from April to June, the SMH ETF gained 71.7%, as shown in the bottom pane of the chart. Despite the large decline in the SMH ETF in July, the magnitude was less than three standard deviations below the mean of monthly returns, as shown in the second pane of the chart. A drop below four standard deviations, or about -27%, could serve as a signal of a reversal of the uptrend. Therefore, up to this point, the decline in July could be classified as profit-taking, rather than as a signal of a top. Anything can happen in the coming months, including a major decline or even new highs. Predictions are impossible, and we can only respond to price action, hopefully with the lowest possible lag.

The 17.6% drop in July corresponds to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend that started in April and ended on June 22, 2026, with an intermediate test of the 50% retracement level, as shown in the chart below.

As we have noted several times in these reports, we use technical analysis in a descriptive sense to describe what happened rather than predicting future price movements and their causes.

Another major development in July that has several important implications in investing and portfolio allocation, but more importantly in economic forecasting and policymaking, was the rally in long-duration bond yields.

We will focus on the 30-year bond yield chart above, and the discussion also relates to Section 4 of this report. Note that the 30-year bond yield is at 19-year highs. On March 9, 2020, during the pandemic, the yield reached its all-time low, at 0.937%, and since then, there has been an uptrend toward the close of this month at 5.275%.

The doom and gloom linked to the rise in yields is difficult to ignore. I received a text message from a friend this week: “Did you notice the rise in bond yields?” My friend was in a panic mode, probably induced by some article or podcast, where the central themes are the imminent destruction of the US economy, the collapse of the global financial system and the US dollar, and related nonsense designed to generate clicks. For the experienced eye, it is fairly straightforward to see why this rise in yields is not a major concern. However, we need to add some important context to the chart, as shown below.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: A Magic Wand was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance. We look at popular ETFs and the current market trends and dynamics, with a focus on potential signals that are hidden in price action.
Section 3 reviews the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 looks at the performance of REIT ETFs and the potential of a short trade.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, July 24, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 0.9% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +17.8%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 0.8%. Year-to-date: +15.3%.
• The SPY ETF fell 0.6%. Year-to-date: +8.9%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 23.4% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 26% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

We start with a brief review of the performance of the short trade in the EWY ETF from the June 21, 2026, weekly report.

This week, the EWY ETF gained 0.3%. Since June 22, 2026, the EWY ETF has fallen 25.7%. Last week, we wrote:

In hindsight, the EWY short was a good call, as it timed the market peak well.

Here is the updated EWY ETF chart:

Although there may be potential for additional downside, we believe most traders who timed the top well have already covered, and we will not provide updates in future reports, except in the case of a significant development.

Below, we focus on another price action development in the US stock market that has caused large losses for some long options traders, primarily due to theta decay.

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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Real Estate was originally published on Price Action Lab