The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance. We look at popular ETFs and the current market trends and also review the performance of a short and a pair trade (long/short) from two recent weekly reports.
Section 3 offers details about the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses divergences in stock indices to clarify a few commonly held misconceptions.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, July 10, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 1.1% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +19.9%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 1.1%. Year-to-date: +18.1%.
• The SPY ETF gained 1.4%. Year-to-date: +11.3%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 26.2% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include in Section 3 the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 30.7% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Below, we review the performance of a pair trade from the June 28, 2026 report and a short trade from the June 21, 2026 report. Both trades are interesting because they reflect the impact of price action trends and the possibility of a regime change. The pair trade is up about 1.3%, while the short trade is up more than 16% due to nearly precise timing. Both trades are now facing fierce resistance from the predominant market regime, which, in the case of the pair trade, has persisted for about 10 years and has generated returns in excess of 2,400% in one of the ETFs.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Divergences was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance. We look at popular ETFs and current market rotation trends and also review the performance of two strategic allocations with some interesting statistics.
Section 3 offers details about the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses the two primary trends that will impact valuations forward and drive equity markets to all-time highs or cause a stock market apocalypse.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Thursday, July 2, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) fell 1.2% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +18.7%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) fell 1.5%. Year-to-date: +16.8%.
• The SPY ETF gained 2.2%. Year-to-date: +9.8%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE tactical allocation is up 24.6% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 28.5% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

In this weekly report, we will look at how price action this year has impacted the performance of two popular strategic allocations. Many investors consider the results puzzling. More surprises of this sort are likely going forward, due to a partial, at least, failure of macroeconomic analysis to factor in price action dynamics in a framework that suffers from anchoring bias amid a fundamental regime change driven by rapid developments in artificial intelligence and geopolitics, as we will discuss in more detail in Section 4 of this report.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: The Two Horsemen was originally published on Price Action Lab

Post-hoc trading claims have been around for as long as markets exist. Financial social media and the ease of generating and distributing content have caused an explosion in post-hoc trading claims recently. In this article, via the use of a systematic strategy, I show how post-hoc trading claims can result in significant outperformance of a benchmark due to implied look-ahead bias.

Post-hoc trading claims are different than look-ahead bias in the sense that there is no direct leakage of future information in backtesting, but the trade price is adjusted after the fact to take advantage of momentum moves and boost paper gains.

Whereas look-ahead applies to systematic trading and backtests and is a serious bias, post-hoc execution applies to discretionary trading that lacks well-defined trade entry levels.

“We bought the SPY ETF at the open today” could be a post-hoc claim of trade execution with the objective of boosting fake paper gains, especially if the claim is made during the day and, in the meantime, the market has gained. “We will buy the SPY ETF tomorrow” is another vague claim that can lead to post-hoc claims depending on the direction of price action.

Not all post-hoc execution claims are fake, but when they are the result of discretionary decisions, they can be questionable. For example, a claim of a trade around the low of the day may sound suspicious if the SPY ETF opens below the previous close and then surges higher during the day. Note that systematic strategies generate the trades for the market’s next open or same-day close, and there can be no dispute, but arbitrary claims of execution after the fact can be questionable, especially among experienced traders who have seen them before.

After this brief introduction, I will focus on the results of a quantitative strategy that demonstrates how post hoc selection of trading entries can lead to fake outperformance. The strategy involves look-ahead bias because it trades at the open with knowledge of the future and specifically that the market closes above the 200-day moving average.

The base case of the strategy is to go long the SPY ETF at the next open when the closing price crosses above the 200-day moving average and to exit the trade at the next open when the closing price falls below the average. Below is the chart with the backtest results from inception of the SPY ETF to June 30, 2026, with fully invested equity.

As we will see in the comparison table after the backtest results, this strategy has generated 104 trades with a 0.70 Sharpe ratio. This type of trend-following strategy has certain inherent risks we have discussed in other articles on this blog, and for this reason we would never trade it in its simplistic form, but it is used here to illustrate a point.

Next, suppose that instead of the next open, we use the open of the day if the close ends above the moving average, and this rule introduces look-ahead bias. Below are the backtest results.

The results show significant improvement in performance, as expected due to look-ahead bias, with a Sharpe ratio near 1 and outperformance of buy and hold, as we will see in the comparison table below. The outperformance confirms why some discretionary paper traders claim an early entry post-hoc: usually there is continuation from the open that results in higher performance. We do not claim that discretionary traders follow this particular strategy; the claim is that some post-hoc claims of an earlier entry can result in outperformance.

When both the entry and exit occur at the open upon crossing above the 200-day moving average, the outperformance disappears due to the absence of look-ahead bias. Below are the backtest results.

The performance when both the entry and exit occur at the open, if it crosses above or below the moving average, is worse than the original case of waiting for confirmation and entering the strategy at the next open, and this discrepancy is mainly due to whipsaw and more losing trades.

The table below compares the three backtest versions with buy and hold.

* Entry on open if the close crosses above the 200-day moving average, and exit at the next open.
** Entry/Exit if the open crosses above/below the 200-day moving average.

But why select a 200-day moving average? Below is the performance of the 21-day moving average cross, with the entry and exit at the next open, for illustration purposes only.

Next, the trade is entered at the open if the close of the day is above the 21-day moving average, which introduces look-ahead bias The exit is at the next day’s open price if  the closing price crosses below the 21-day moving average.

The result was expected due to look-ahead bias. In this case, the trade sample grew to 483, which provides us more confidence that claims of trade execution made after the fact boost paper gains.

Summary: In discretionary trading, those who paper trade often make post-hoc claims of an earlier trade entry, which reflects look-ahead bias. The above results indicate that entering trades on the same day open, when the close crosses above the 200-day or 21-day moving average, leads to significant outperformance due to look-ahead bias. The results also show that those who claim post-hoc of an earlier entry when significant moves in the markets occur can book significant paper profits, but the results are not real.

Independence Day Sale—Premium Content, Strategies, and Software

Post-Hoc Trading Claims: Creating Fake Paper Gains was originally published on Price Action Lab

Premium content and strategies up to 35% off. The offers will expire Wednesday, July 8, 2026; they are valid for new purchases only and do not apply retroactively. All orders will be processed starting on Thursday, July 9, 2026. Contact us for an invoice. 

Premium Content Offer

Annual Market Signals and Premium Articles subscription
Special price: $1,470 (Regular price is $1,960; save 25%)

Strategy Bundle
Rules for 10 strategies

Special price: $3,495 (Regular price is $4,995; save 30%)

DLPAL LS and DLPAL DQ software
Identify anomalies in price action before other market participants do

35% off—contact us for details

The offers will expire Wednesday, July 8, 2026; they are valid for new purchases only and do not apply retroactively. We will process all orders starting on Thursday, July 9, 2026. Contact us for an invoice. 

Disclaimer

Independence Day Sale—Premium Content, Strategies, and Software was originally published on Price Action Lab

This premium report includes an update on the monthly rebalanced Market Signal strategies. A Market Signals subscription provides access to the entire report.

Positions and strategy performance: Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Access the full report with a Market Signals subscription. Hundreds of articles are instantly available to you if you subscribe. Subscribers to Market Signals have instant access to more than 200 articles in the Premium Education section, as well as monthly signals for dynamic momentum and hybrid asset allocation.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

Disclaimer: The Weekly Signals are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purpose of the Weekly Signals. Under no circumstances should the premium or weekly signals be treated as financial advice. The author of this website is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Copyright notice: Any unauthorized copy, reproduction, distribution, publication, display, modification, or transmission of any part of this report is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Market Signals for July 1, 2026 was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance. We look at popular ETFs, current market rotation trends, low volatility versus high beta performance, and the perils of using a technical indicator that has historically generated false signals.
Section 3 offers details about the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses the recent performance in biotech and potential drivers.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, June 26, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) fell 1.2% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +20.3%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) fell 2.1%. Year-to-date: +18.5%.
• The SPY ETF fell 2.4%. Year-to-date: +7.5%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 27.3% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility. We also include the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 31.5% year-to-date.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Starting with this week’s report, we bring back the cash indices for our weekly recap, and we also focus on our watchlist of 32 popular ETFs. We will also start paying attention to key divergences in asset and index performance because the signal-to-noise ratio could be higher during market stress periods than that of price action indicators.

We start with a chart of a popular quantitative indicator of the relative performance of two indices, which is regularly featured in financial social media and the blogosphere, but it is a tricky one that can generate misleading results. Then, we focus on the relative performance of the two indices.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Biotech was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We also include an update of our inflation chart with a discussion about current policy and economic ramifications.
Section 3 details the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses a potential short position that could be the trade of the decade.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Thursday, June 18, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 1.6% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +21.8%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 1.6%. Year-to-date: +21.0%.
• The SPY ETF rose 0.9%. Year-to-date: +10.1%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 35.8% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 29.7% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Below is a chart showing price action that could be problematic for the US stock market, and the signal, if it is not invalidated soon, may be imminent.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: The Short of the Decade was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We discuss price action during regular trading hours for various assets and the underlying market regime.
Section 3 details the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses the transition from billionaires to trillionaires in the past 110 years in relation to stock market gains.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

Summary

For the week ending Friday, June 12, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 2.4% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +19.9%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 1.5%. Year-to-date: +19.1%.
• The SPY ETF rose 0.6%. Year-to-date: +9.1%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 32.6% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 27.2% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

We have identified changes in market dynamics this year, and we would like to share our findings with our subscribers.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: From Billions to Trillions was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We discuss current patterns in price action and review a market divergence from this week.
Section 3 details the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses profit-taking in the stock market and how traders and investors can manage its dynamics.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

For the week ending Friday, June 5, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) fell 2.2% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +17.1%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) lost 3.7%. Year-to-date: +17.4%.
• The SPY ETF dropped 2.5%. Year-to-date: +8.4%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 29.6% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 23.4% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

The S&P 500 index fell 2.6% for the week, after rising 19% due to a nine-week win streak. The drawdown in the past three trading days since the all-time closing high is -3%. Below is a histogram of the 3-day returns of the S&P 500 index total return (SPY ETF since inception).

The 3-day drop of 2.9% this week is less than minus two standard deviations from the mean of the available sample of 8,392 3-day rolling returns. As is also evident from the daily chart, the move carries no statistical significance. A more significant move this week was due to the following divergence.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Profit Taking was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We discuss current patterns in price action and review the performance of a pair trade involving a gold ETF.
Section 3 details the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses reflexivity in financial markets.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

For the week ending Friday, May 29, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 2.8% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +19.8%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 3.7%. Year-to-date: +22%.
• The SPY ETF gained 1.5%. Year-to-date: +11.2%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the PALSA strategic allocation details and the performance when the volatility matches that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 37.3% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 27.9% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

The S&P 500 index rose for a ninth week, and the win streak gain reached 19%. The histogram below shows the rolling 9-week returns for the S&P 500 index since 1947.

The return of 19% in nine weeks is close to three standard deviations, at 19.9%, based on the available sample with a size of 4,141 (rolling returns). Below, we present historical forward results for when the S&P 500 has gained more than 17% in nine weeks since 1950, along with a statistical analysis of the distribution of 9-week returns.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might skip updating the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Reflexivity was originally published on Price Action Lab

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Trading schedule note: U.S. markets are closed Monday, May 25, in observance of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We discuss current patterns in price action and review the performance of a pair trade. We also look at inflation-adjusted crude oil prices.
Section 3 details the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses reversion to the mean for equity returns.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

For the week ending Friday, May 22, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 1.8% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +16.6%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 1.8%. Year-to-date: +17.6%.
• The SPY ETF gained 0.9%. Year-to-date: +9.6%

For the open positions and any new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA (Lev) when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 29.9% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 22.4% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

The S&P 500 index rose for an eighth week, and the win streak gain reached 17.3%. The histogram below shows the rolling 8-week returns for the S&P 500 index since 1947.

The return of 17.3% in eight weeks is close to three standard deviations, at 18.7%, based on the available sample with a size of 4,142 (rolling returns).

Only another 8-week win streak has yielded in the past a gain of more than 17%, and that was for the week ending June 20, 1997, and during a period when the dot-com rally had accelerated. The 1977 win streak with a gain of 17.4% came six months after the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, coined the term “irrational exuberance” but without explicitly asserting that the US stock market was in a bubble state. Some analysts and investors assert there are some similarities with the current regime, but there are also notable differences, which have been discussed before in these reports but briefly include the rise of AI and unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty. Given that market regimes are dynamic and non-stationary, the best way to deal with price action is with robust strategic and tactical allocations, which is a main objective of these reports. Fundamental and technical analysis can help for risk management purposes, but ambiguity, subjectivity, and a low signal-to-noise ratio could limit the effectiveness of these methods.

Below is a table of 4- and 12-week forward returns after 8-week returns greater than 17%

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might skip updating the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Reversion to the Mean was originally published on Price Action Lab

The update includes important information for Premium Articles, Weekly Market Signals, and Monthly Signals subscribers.

Update: Strategic allocation in weekly market reports

The strategic allocation for 2026 was announced in late 2025. The allocation is strategic in the sense that it is passive for the whole year. However, for next year, we will probably make some changes to the allocation in both assets and weights.

The strategic allocation is up 17.1% year-to-date (Thursday, May 21, 2026). The SPY ETF is up 9.2%. Below is the backtest from 2020.

With 1.7x leverage to match the volatility of the SPY ETF, the strategic allocation is up 29.1% year-to-date. (Thursday, May 21, 2026). Below is the backtest from 2020.

We expect some correction in months ahead, as markets appear overextended.

Update: ETF selection for weekly and monthly signals

Disclaimer: Investing in any market, including exchange-traded products (ETPs, ETFs, and ETNs), could result in a total loss of capital. The premium content is provided for informational purposes, not as investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness of premium content for any particular purpose. You should never treat the premium content as financial advice. At times, we may hold positions, long or short, calls or puts, in several exchange-traded products that are mentioned in these reports. Furthermore, this website’s author is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Update: Premium Articles, Weekly and Monthly Signals Subscribers was originally published on Price Action Lab

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a subscriber? Sign in

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We discuss current patterns in price action and attempt to identify historical analogs.
Section 3 covers the performance of our tactical and strategic allocations.
Section 4 discusses confirmation bias and a recent example.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

For the week ending May 15, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) fell 0.65% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +14.6%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) fell 1.45%. Year-to-date: +15.4%.
• The SPY ETF gained 0.2%. Year-to-date: +8.7%

For the open positions and new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA (Lev) when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 26.2% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 19.0% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Stocks had a strong rally after March 30, 2026, with a 7-week win streak and a combined gain of 16.3%. We will look at two different patterns involving a combined return of more than 15% in 7 weeks.

The histogram below shows the 7-week returns for the S&P 500 index since 1947.

A return of 16.3% in seven weeks is close to three standard deviations, at 17.4%, based on the available sample with a size of 4,144 (rolling).

Below is a table of 4- and 12-week forward returns after a 7-week return greater than 15%.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might skip updating the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Confirmation Bias was originally published on Price Action Lab

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a subscriber? Sign in

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a subscriber? Sign in

The weekly reports include tactical ensemble and strategic allocation updates, a stock market forecast, and analysis of capital markets and price action. To access the full reports, you must subscribe to Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles.

Weekly Market Report

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
3. Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
4. Market dynamics discussion and conclusion

Section 2 covers trends in US and foreign asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We discuss how the stock market has just delivered a right-tail event despite widespread expectations of a left-tail one.
Section 3 covers the performance of our low-turnover tactical and strategic allocations. No hype, no outrageous claims, just simplicity and robustness.

1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation

For the week ending May 8, 2026:

• The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 4.2% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +15.3%
• The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA) gained 5.3%. Year-to-date: +17.1%.
• The SPY ETF gained 2.4%. Year-to-date: +8.5%

For the open positions and new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA (Lev) when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 29.1% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 19.9% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.

2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast

Stocks had a strong rally after March 30, 2026, and in the past 28 trading days, the S&P 500 index has gained 16.6% and has reached new, all-time highs. Below are price action statistics based on similar historical price action patterns.

You must sign up for Premium Articles or Weekly Premium Articles in order to view the complete reports.

Particular disclaimer: Charts in this article may refer to price levels. We might skip updating the charts if market conditions alter price levels or affect any analysis based on them. All charts in this article are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or actionable content. We do not guarantee the articles’ accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any specific purpose. You should never treat the articles as financial advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor; thus, before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.

Weekly Market Report: Right Tail Event was originally published on Price Action Lab

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a subscriber? Sign in