Money

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for MARCH 2026

2026-04-01T18:12:00.000-04:00

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

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Predicted: 88.0

Actual: 91.8

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Previous Month (revised): 91.0

Change from Previous Month: +0.9% (+0.8 point)

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...While not obvious in the headline or its component indexes, the weight of rising costs due to tariff pass-through and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations.

'Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

'Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.'..."

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Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board ® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

MARCH 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for MARCH 2026

2026-03-30T19:50:00.001-04:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for March, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 54.0

Actual: 53.3

=========

Change from Previous Month: -5.83% (-3.3 points)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -6.49% (-3.7 points)

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Final ICS Reading for February 2026: 56.6
Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran invasion, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment.

Overall, the short-run economic outlook plunged 14%, and year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%, while declines in long-run expectations were more subdued.

These patterns suggest that, at this time, consumers may not expect recent negative developments to persist far into the future. These views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation.

Interviews for this release were collected between February 17 and March 23, with about two-thirds completed after the start of the US military invasion of Iran.

Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.4% in February to 3.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations inched down to 3.2%. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. Note that for both time horizons, interviews completed after February 28th exhibited higher inflation expectations than those completed before that date..."

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CHART: Expectations Worsen After Start of
Invasion of Iran, Particularly Over Short Run
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

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Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

March 27, 2026 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

2026-03-27T21:00:00.008-04:00

March 27, 2026: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished the week in correction territory, joining the NASDAQ Composite index, which fell into correction yesterday (March 26.)

NYMEX front month WTI crude oil closed at $101.16 per barrel (CHART)...

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

DJIA: -10.01% (-5,021.50 points) - CHART

NASDAQ Composite: -12.56% (-3,010.11 points) - CHART
S&P 500: -8.74% (-609.75 points) - CHART

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CHART: NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Price History
March 27, 2026 UPDATE
===============

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
March 27, 2026 UPDATE
===============

Currently, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on April 29, 2026.

Stay tuned...

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New Home Sales During JANUARY 2026

2026-03-20T21:29:53.322-04:00

The January, 2026 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department:

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Previous Month (unrevised): 712,000

Actual New Home Sales: 587,000

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Change from 1-Month Previous: -125,000 units (-17.56%)
Change from 1-Year Previous: -75,000 units (-11.33%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During January, 2026: $400,500

Change from One-Year Previous: -$29,100 (-6.77%)

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Average Price for a New Home
During January, 2026: $499,500

Change from One-Year Previous: -$18,700 (-3.61%)

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Inventory: 472,000 (-17,000 units / -3.48% Year-on-Year)

7.6 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
JANUARY 2026 Update

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

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Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

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Existing Home Sales During FEBRUARY 2026

2026-03-10T18:44:00.000-04:00

Existing Home Sales report for February, 2026 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 4,020,000

Actual: 4,090,000

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Change from Previous Month: +1.74% (+70,000 homes)
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -1.45% (-60,000 homes)

======================

Inventory: 1,290,000 homes.

(3.8 months supply | +60,000 [+4.88%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price: $398,000
Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.3% (+$1,200)

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==========

Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

Click Here for New Home Sales Data.

Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. 'Still, there is a long way to go to return to pre-pandemic levels of transaction activity. There are more than 6 million more jobs than in 2019, yet home sales per year are down by one million.'

'Despite the modest gain in home sales, actual housing demand remains muted relative to wage growth and job gains,' Yun continued. 'Wage growth is now outpacing home price growth by almost four percentage points. Mortgage rates are also measurably lower compared to a year ago.'

'Inventory is growing, but sluggishly,' he added. 'If demand picks up notably in the coming months and outpaces supply growth, home prices will inevitably rise. That is why increasing supply is so important to help limit home price growth, improve housing affordability, and boost transactions.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2026 REALTORS®)

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Click here to view the NAR® data.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for FEBRUARY 2026

2026-02-25T08:47:00.000-05:00

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 88.0

Actual: 91.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 89.0

Change from Previous Month: +2.47% (+2.2 points)

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).'

'Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds. Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February. Labor market mentions eased a bit in February, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.'..."

================

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

FEBRUARY 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

New Home Sales During DECEMBER 2025

2026-02-20T21:30:00.042-05:00

The December, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department:

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Previous Month (unrevised): 758,000

Actual New Home Sales: 745,000

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Change from 1-Month Previous: -13,000 units (-1.72%)
Change from 1-Year Previous: +27,000 units (+3.76%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During December, 2025: $414,400

Change from One-Year Previous: -$8,600 (-2.03%)

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Average Price for a New Home
During December, 2025: $532,600

Change from One-Year Previous: +$23,700 (+4.66%)

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Inventory: 472,000 (-17,000 units / -3.48% Year-on-Year)

7.6 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
DECEMBER 2025 Update

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.

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Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for FEBRUARY 2026

2026-02-20T13:26:00.031-05:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for February, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0

Actual: 56.6

=========

Change from Previous Month: +0.35% (+0.2 point)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -12.52% (-8.1 points)

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Final ICS Reading for January 2026: 56.4
Final ICS Reading for February 2025: 64.7

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment stagnated this month with very little change, just 0.2 index points higher than January. All index components posted insignificant movements this month; overall, consumers do not perceive any material differences in the economy from last month.

About 46% of consumers spontaneously mentioned high prices eroding their personal finances; readings have exceeded 40% for seven months in a row. Sentiment is about 13% below a year ago and 21% below January 2025.

That said, views vary considerably across the population. A sizable month-to-month increase in sentiment for the largest stockholders was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings. Similar divergences were seen across income and education, where higher-income or college educated consumers exhibited increases in sentiment while lower-income or less-educated counterparts did not.

With their much stronger income prospects and investment portfolios, wealthier and higher-income consumers feel better insulated from any possible risks to the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.4% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.3%, just above the 2.8% and 3.2% range seen in 2024. In 2019 and 2020, long-run inflation expectations were consistently below 2.8%. Uncertainty, as measured by the middle 50% of expectations, is now its lowest since December 2024 for the short run and October 2024 for the long run..."

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CHART: Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
but Recently Converged for Consumers
Who Did and Did Not Mention Tariffs
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

Existing Home Sales During JANUARY 2026

2026-02-12T22:53:00.000-05:00

Existing Home Sales report for January, 2026 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,270,000

Actual: 3,910,000

======================

Change from Previous Month: -8.43% (-360,000 homes)
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -4.4% (-180,000 homes)

======================

Inventory: 1,220,000 homes.

(3.7 months supply | +40,000 [+3.39%] homes Y-o-Y.)

Median Price: $396,800
Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.86% (+$3,400)

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==========

Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

Click Here for New Home Sales Data.

Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'The decrease in sales is disappointing. The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun.

'Affordability conditions are improving, with NAR’s Housing Affordability Index showing that housing is the most affordable it’s been since March 2022. This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low.'

'Due to low supply, the median home price reached a new high for the month of January,' Yun added. 'Homeowners are in a financially comfortable position as a result. Since January 2020, a typical homeowner would have accumulated $130,500 in housing wealth.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

JANUARY 2026 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2026 REALTORS®)

==================

Click here to view the NAR® data.

==================

Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for FEBRUARY 2026

2026-02-06T20:04:00.000-05:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for February, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 52.0

Actual: 57.3

=========

Change from Previous Month: +1.6% (+0.9 point)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -11.44% (-7.4 points)

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Final ICS Reading for January, 2026: 56.4
Final ICS Reading for February, 2025: 64.7

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings.

On net, modest increases in current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were offset by a small decline in long-run business conditions.

While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small -- well under the margin of error -- and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread. Interviews for this release cover the two-week period that ended this past Monday.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.5% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations inched up for the second straight month, from 3.3% last month to 3.4% this month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020..."

=========

CHART: Wealth Gaps in Sentiment Continue to Widen,
Mirroring Trends Seen in 2023 and 2024

FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

NEW PHISHING SCAM: Facebook Has Temporarily Suspended Your Account (ACCEPT / IGNORE Button)

2026-01-29T23:45:00.000-05:00

So this is a new Facebook (FB) phishing scam....For me anyway.

Was taking care of some business on FB, when this nasty message popped up in my face (👈 image.)

It says, "Facebook has temporarily suspended your account," and it shows you two (2) buttons: [ACCEPT] and a flashing red [IGNORE.]👆

OK, so if are on FB and you see this popup message, DO NOT CLICK THAT FLASHING IGNORE BUTTON!

This is a common trick the scammer use: A fake button that makes you think that if you click it you will get rid of the popup.

But, of course, the opposite is true.

Instead of clicking the [ACCEPT] or [IGNORE] buttons, close the window.

At this point the attack may have locked up your computer so that you can't close the message.

🚨 THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOULD DO 🚨

If that's the case, then shutdown your computer, and unplug it. Unplug it even if it's a laptop.

Then wait at least 10 minutes before starting it up again.

Once you have rebooted, use your preferred virus scanner to scan your system, after you've check for the latest threat updates via the Internet.

I use Microsoft's built-in Defender Antivirus on my Windows 11 computers, and I check for the latest updates on a very regular basis (sometime multiple checks per day.)

OK, so if you accidentally click on that malicious [IGNORE] button, another popup will smack you in the face, and this time it will fill up your entire screen!

💣> Do NOT Click ANYTHING in that WINDOW! <💣

EVERYTHING in that page is MALICIOUS and can do some very serious harm to your computer, or your finances, or your private data, etc.

So, again, if you can't close that window, scroll back 👆 up this page 👆 and follow the steps under the heading "THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOULD DO" and you should be OK. 💫

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JANUARY 2026

2026-01-27T17:35:00.000-05:00

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (January, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 89.0

Actual: 84.5

================

Previous Month (revised): 94.2

Change from Previous Month: -10.3% (-9.7 points)

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. 'All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2) -- surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.'

Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher.'..."

================

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

================

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

JANUARY 2026 Update

========================================

Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for JANUARY 2026

2026-01-23T20:16:00.012-05:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for January, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

Actual: 56.4

=========

Change from Previous Month: +6.62% (+3.5 points)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -21.34% (-15.3 points)

=========

Final ICS Reading for December 2025: 52.9
Final ICS Reading for January 2025: 71.7

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment lifted about 3.5 index points this month, with minor gains seen across all index components. While the overall improvement was small, it was broad based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike.

However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago, as consumers continue to report pressures on their purchasing power stemming from high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets.

Aside from tariff policy, consumers do not appear to be connecting foreign developments to their views of the economy. Note that interviews for this release concluded on January 19th, two days after Trump’s social media post announcing additional tariffs on eight countries in Europe..."

=========

CHART: Inflation Uncertainty Down from Q2, 2025
Peaks but Remains Substantially Elevated
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

Existing Home Sales During DECEMBER 2025

2026-01-15T10:05:00.000-05:00

Existing Home Sales report for December, 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,140,000

Actual: 4,350,000

======================

Change from Previous Month: +5.07% (+210,000 homes)
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): +1.4% (+60,000 homes)

======================

Inventory: 1,180,000 homes.

(3.3 months supply | +40,000 [+3.51%] homes Y-o-Y.)

Median Price: $405,400
Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.42% (+$1,700)

------------------------------------------------------

==========

Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

Click Here for New Home Sales Data.

Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after adjusting for seasonal factors, were the strongest in nearly three years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month.'

'Inventory levels remain tight,' Yun added. 'With fewer sellers feeling eager to move, homeowners are taking their time deciding when to list or delist their homes. Similar to past years, more inventory is expected to come to market beginning in February.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2026 REALTORS®)

==================

Click here to view the NAR® data.

==================

New Home Sales During OCTOBER 2025

2026-01-14T17:41:00.001-05:00

The October, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (unrevised): 738,000

Actual New Home Sales: 737,000

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Change from 1-Month Previous: -1,000 units (-0.14%)
Change from 1-Year Previous: +116,000 units (+18.68%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During October, 2025: $392,300

Change from One-Year Previous: -$34,000 (-7.98%)

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During October, 2025: $498,000

Change from One-Year Previous: -$23,900 (-4.58%)

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Inventory: 488,000 (+8,000 units / +1.67% Year-on-Year)

7.9 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
OCTOBER 2025 Update

================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.

================================

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================================

Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for JANUARY 2026

2026-01-09T23:00:00.067-05:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for January, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 52.0

Actual: 54.0

=========

Change from Previous Month: +2.08% (+1.1 points)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -24.69% (-17.7 points)

=========

Final ICS Reading for December, 2025: 52.9
Final ICS Reading for January, 2025: 71.7

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment inched up for the second straight month and reached its highest reading since September 2025. Improvements in January were seen among lower-income consumers, while sentiment fell for those with higher incomes.

All told, while consumers perceived some modest improvement in the economy over the past two months, their sentiment remains nearly 25% below last January’s reading.

They continue to be focused primarily on kitchen table issues, like high prices and softening labor markets.

Although consumers’ worries about tariffs appear to be gradually receding, they remain guarded about the overall strength of business conditions and labor markets.

Note that more than 90% of interviews for this release were collected prior to the capture of Maduro in Venezuela.
Year-ahead inflation expectations held steady in January at 4.2%. This is the lowest reading since January 2025 but remains well above that month’s 3.3%.

Long-run inflation expectations ticked up slightly from 3.2% in December to 3.4% this month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020..."

=========

CHART: Over The Past Year, College-Educated Consumers
Report Higher Likelihood of Own Job
Loss than Less-Educated Counterparts

JANUARY 2026 UPDATE

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for DECEMBER 2025

2025-12-24T15:41:00.002-05:00

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 92.0

Actual: 89.1

================

Previous Month (revised): 92.9

Change from Previous Month: -4.09% (-3.8 points)

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

The Present Situation Index declined as net views on current business conditions were negative for the first time since September 2024, a month that included a labor market scare and deadly hurricanes. Perceptions of employment conditions edged lower as the labor market differential -- the share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying jobs are ‘hard to get’ -- continued to flag. Two of the three Expectations Index components dipped in December. November’s nosedive in expectations for business conditions six months from now mostly reversed in December but remained negative. Expectations for labor market conditions were gloomier, and the outlook for household incomes was less positive.

Among demographic groups, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence dipped among all age groups in December, although consumers under 35 continued to be more confident than consumers age 35 and older. There were few generational differences, as confidence among all generations trended downward in the month, with only the Silent Generation becoming more hopeful. Millennials and Gen Z remained the most optimistic of all generations surveyed. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis fell for nearly all brackets, except for those earning less than $15K and more than $125K. Still, consumers earning less than $15K remained the least optimistic among all income groups. Confidence continued to fall in December among all political affiliations (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents).

Peterson added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and income, tariffs and trade, and politics. However, December saw increases in mentions of immigration, war, and topics related to personal finances -- including interest rates, taxes and income, banks, and insurance. The responses continued to skew pessimistic but less so than November, potentially due to fewer negative comments about prices and inflation, politics, as well as a rebound in positive responses about interest rates. Notably, the Federal Reserve Board cut monetary policy rates on December 10 for a third time in 2025, which landed in the second half of the survey sample interval.'

Nonetheless, the share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise were on net higher, with a drop in the proportion expecting lower rates. Consumers’ median and average 12-month inflation expectations both retreated in December after an uptick in November. The balance of consumers’ expectations for stock prices twelve months from now -- higher minus lower -- was the most positive since January 2025..."

================

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

================

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

DECEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

A "For Food" Payment Request Scam Attempt on Cash.APP®

2025-12-22T20:24:00.000-05:00

www.FedPrimeRate.com: "For Food"
Payment Request Scam
Attempt on Cash.APP®

Here's a first: Someone trying to scam me via Cash APP®.

$25.00 for food, for someone with the name Chivo Valluco. Fake name? Sounds pretty darn fake to me! 😏

It was just a matter of time, since my business Cash App ID ($cashtag) is visible on the Internet, for all to see.

Blocking the scammer was a quick and easy.

Some of these Cash.APP scams are very crafty and sophisticated. Here's a clip from a Forbes® article:

"...Sometimes, they even send money to the Cash App user and then say it was an accident. Then they ask for a refund, but the money was initially sent from a hacked or stolen account. The user sends back the money, but now they're left with the headache of dealing with the original fraud...."

Yikes! #Beware! 😓

Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for DECEMBER 2025

2025-12-21T20:55:00.000-05:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for December, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

Actual: 52.9

=========

Change from Previous Month: +3.73% (+1.9 points)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -28.51% (-21.1 points)

=========

Final ICS Reading for November 2025: 51.0
Final ICS Reading for December 2024: 74.0

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading, inching up less than two index points from November, within the margin of error. While lower-income consumers posted gains, sentiment for higher-income consumers was little changed. Buying conditions for durable goods fell for the fifth straight month, whereas expectations for personal finances and business conditions rose in December. Labor market expectations lifted a bit this month, though a solid majority of 63% of consumers still expects unemployment to continue rising during the next year. Despite some signs of improvement to close out the year, sentiment remains nearly 30% below December 2024, as pocketbook issues continue to dominate consumer views of the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased for the fourth consecutive month to 4.2%. This is the lowest reading in 11 months but is still above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations eased from 3.4% last month to 3.2% in December, matching the January 2025 reading. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2% last year, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020..."

=========

CHART: Post-Pandemic Frustration
with High Prices Persists Even
When Inflation Expectations Soften
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

Existing Home Sales During NOVEMBER 2025

2025-12-20T19:50:00.003-05:00

Existing Home Sales report for November 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,110,000

Actual: 4,130,000

======================

Change from Previous Month: +0.49% (+20,000 homes)
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -0.96% (-40,000 homes)

======================

Inventory: 1,430,000 homes.

(4.2 months supply | +100,000 [+7.52%] homes Y-o-Y.)

Median Price: $409,200
Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.19% (+$4,800)

------------------------------------------------------

==========

Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

Click Here for New Home Sales Data.

Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.'

'Wage growth is outpacing home price gains, which improves housing affordability. Still, future affordability could be hampered if housing supply fails to keep pace with demand,' Yun added.

'As has been the case throughout the year, single-family home sales outperformed condominium sales in November. The typical price of a sold condo was 13.5% lower than the typical price of a single-family home. However, the purchase price does not include the condominium association fees, which are rising and making these purchases more expensive.'..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

==================

Click here to view the NAR® data.

==================

My Uncle Got Sucked Into A "Home Depot" Phishing Scam

2025-12-19T06:16:00.000-05:00

So, I am on WhatsApp, checking out some family conversations, when I receive a message from my uncle. Message reads:

"The Home Depot 40th Anniversary. Click to enter to participate in the survey. Have a chance to win $ 8,000! BeneficialYear.TOP"

Right away, red flags go up. Looks extremely suspicious, but I click the link anyway, because I want to see what the scam looks like, so that I can warn others.

Here's a capture of the URL, and the page it took me to:

www.FedPrimeRate.com: Phishing Scam Image 1

=======

When I reloaded the page, I was taken to a totally different URL:

www.FedPrimeRate.com: Phishing Scam Image 2

First of all, if this is a survey from The Home Depot, then why on Earth would I be redirected to 2 different URLs? And why would one of the domain names use a .CN top level name, meaning it's registered in China?

Moreover: all the navigation links don't work, and the same if you try to "up" or "down" vote in the comments section.

As I investigated further, I found that Firefox is aware, and warning folks:

www.FedPrimeRate.com:
Mozilla FireFox Warning
- Deceptive Site Ahead

=======

Please people: don't forward suspicious messages to friends and family without checking them out. You could end up doing serious harm to people you care about.

>>> CLICK HERE FOR MORE SAFETY WARNINGS <<<

>>> CLICK HERE for SCAM ALERT: HOW TO AVOID BANKING AND OTHER TRENDING SCAMS; KNOW THE RED FLAGS <<<

Powerball® Jackpot Is $1.5 Billion for the Saturday, December 20, 2025 Drawing

2025-12-19T02:30:00.001-05:00

Powerball

Well, looks like I have contracted the "lotto fever" once again...😱

The Powerball® jackpot for tomorrow's (December 20, 2025) drawing now stands at an estimated $1.5 billion.

So, just for fun, I am playing a few lines with NY.Lotto.com 😌

The Odds

The overall odds of winning a Powerball prize are 1 in 24.87.

The odds of winning the jackpot are
1 in 292,201,338.😐

Good luck to all those who are giving this one a shot... ✌🍀💥👌

A Sophisticated Money Transfer Scam by Scammers Using Zelle®

2025-12-08T15:37:00.000-05:00

This New York Times article was written by Michael Wilson:

A Sophisticated Money Transfer
Scam by Scammers Using Zelle®

I’ve Written About Loads of Scams. This One Almost Got Me.
“Please hold,” the caller said, “while I transfer you to my supervisor.”

It was a Wednesday in August, a little before lunch. The call came from a 212 number, which for a New Yorker could be almost anything -- the school, the pharmacy, the roof guy -- so I answered.

The caller asked for me by name and stated in measured tones that he was from Chase® Bank and he wanted to verify transfers being made from my account to someone in Texas.

Wrong number, I said. I don’t have a Chase account.

But one was recently opened in your name, he replied, with two Zelle transfers. And minutes ago, someone tried to transfer those funds, $2,100, to San Antonio.

Now, this carried the whiff of plausibility. I’m one of some 150 million people who have access to Zelle®, the payments platform that lets you send and receive money from your phone. But my scam radar was also fully operational and pinging.

“How do I know this isn’t a scam?” I asked, sounding like that guy in every movie who asks an undercover cop if he’s a cop.

He had a quick answer. Look at the number showing on your phone and Google it, he replied. “Now look up the Chase branch at 3 Times Square,” he instructed. “See the office phone number?” I did, and it matched the one on my phone’s screen.

Then he added, “Here at Chase, we’ll never ask for your personal information or passwords.” On the contrary, he gave me more information -- two “cancellation codes” and a long case number with four letters and 10 digits.

That’s when he offered to transfer me to his supervisor. That simple phrase, familiar from countless customer-service calls, draped a cloak of corporate competence over this unfolding drama. His supervisor. I mean, would a scammer have a supervisor?

The line went mute for a few seconds, and a second man greeted me with a voice of authority. “My name is Mike Wallace,” he said, and asked for my case number from the first guy. I dutifully read it back to him.

“Yes, yes, I see,” the man said, as if looking at a screen. He explained the situation -- new account, Zelle® transfers, Texas -- and suggested we reverse the attempted withdrawal.

I’m not proud to report that by now, he had my full attention, and I was ready to proceed with whatever plan he had in mind.

Internet fraud has grown steadily, with 2024 setting new record-high losses -- “a staggering $16.6 billion,” the F.B.I.’s annual Internet Crime Complaint Center wrote in a recent report. These crimes include elaborate cryptocurrency schemes and ransomware attacks on entire cities, but phishing and spoofing -- the cloning of an actual phone number -- still lead the list of some 860,000 complaints last year.

Are these scams entering some sort of improved, 2.0 version of the old-school Nigerian-prince-type setup?

“I wouldn’t call it an improvement,” said Paul Roberts, an assistant special agent in charge of the New York offices of the F.B.I. “It’s an adaptation. As the public becomes more aware of schemes, they need to adjust.”

The man claiming to be a Chase supervisor asked me to open Zelle. Where it says, “Enter an amount,” he instructed me to type $2,100, the amount of the withdrawals he was going to help me reverse.

Then, in the “Enter phone number or email” window -- where the other party in a Zelle transaction goes -- he instructed me to type the case number the first caller had given me, but to leave out the four letters. Numbers only. I dutifully entered the 10 digits, but my skepticism was finally showing up.

“Mr. Wallace,” I said, somewhat apologetically. “This case number sure looks like a phone number, and I’m about to send that number $2,100.”

No, he replied, because of this important next step. In the window that says “What’s this for? ” where you might add “babysitter” or “block party donation,” he told me to enter a unique code that would alert his team that this transaction should be reversed.

It was incredibly long, and he read it out slowly -- “S, T, P, P, six, seven, one, two …” -- and I typed along. Now and then he even threw in some military-style lingo: “… zero, zero, Charlie, X-ray, nine, eight …”

Once we were done, he had me read the whole 19-character code back to him.

Now, he said, press “Send.”

But one word above the “What’s this for?” box containing our special code with the X-ray and the Charlie kept bothering me: “Optional.”

Then I had an idea, and asked the supervisor if he was calling from 3 Times Square. Yes, he said.

I’ll come to you, I said, and we’ll fix this together.

By then it will probably be too late, he said.

“I’ll call you back,” I said, and he said that would be fine, and I hung up.

I called my bank and confirmed what I’d come to suspect. There had been no recent Zelle activity.

My jaw dropped when I went back and looked at my call history. Sixteen minutes — that’s how long they had me on the line.

In decades as a crime reporter, I’ve covered many, many scams -- psychic scams, sweetheart swindles, real-estate scams, even the obscure “nanny scam,” where a fake mother reaches out to a young caregiver to try to rip her off.

I should be able to spot a scam in under 16 seconds, I thought -- but 16 minutes?

I wanted to know why this scam seemed to work so much better than others...

The full article continues here
(New York Times subscription required)

Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for DECEMBER 2025

2025-12-05T11:11:00.015-05:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for December, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 52.0

Actual: 53.3

=========

Change from Previous Month: +4.51% (+2.3 points)

Change from 12 Months Previous: -27.97% (-20.7 points)

=========

Final ICS Reading for November 2025: 51.0
Final ICS Reading for December 2024: 74.0

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment lifted 2.3 index points in early December, within the margin of error. This month’s increase was concentrated primarily among younger consumers. Overall, while views of current conditions were little changed, expectations improved, led by a 13% rise in expected personal finances, with improvements visible across age, income, education, and political affiliation. Still, December’s reading on expected personal finances is nearly 12% below the beginning of the year. Similarly, labor market expectations improved a touch but remained relatively dismal. Consumers see modest improvements from November on a few dimensions, but the overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices.

Looking to the future, year-ahead inflation expectations decreased from 4.5% last month to 4.1% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This marks four consecutive months of declines, but short-run inflation expectations are still above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations softened from 3.4% last month to 3.2% in December, matching the January 2025 reading. In comparison, 2024 readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2%, while the readings in 2019 and 2020 were below 2.8%. Inflation uncertainty over both time horizons -- as measured by the interquartile range of responses -- remains higher than January of this year..."

=========

CHART: Consumer Sentiment

Current Conditions Index
December 2025 UPDATE

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for NOVEMBER 2025

2025-11-27T02:35:00.001-05:00

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (November, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 92.0

Actual: 88.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 95.5

Change from Previous Month: -7.12% (-6.8 points)

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. 'All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions.

The labor market differential -- the share of consumers who say jobs are 'plentiful' minus the share saying 'hard to get' -- dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline.

All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now.

Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.'..."

================

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

================

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

NOVEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================