Money

Existing Home Sales During APRIL 2026

2026-05-12T14:54:00.000-04:00

Existing Home Sales report for April, 2026 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,010,000

Actual: 4,020,000

======================

Change from Previous Month: +0.25% (+10,000 homes)
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): FLAT

======================

Inventory: 1,470,000 homes.

(4.4 months supply | +20,000 [+1.38%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price: $417,700
Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.89% (+$3,700)

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Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

Click Here for New Home Sales Data.

Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Despite mixed macroeconomic signals -- including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence -- home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. 'Mortgage rates are lower from a year ago, and average income growth is outpacing home price gains.'

Yun continued, 'Inventory still remains tight. Multiple offers, though not as intense as a few years ago, are still occurring. At the same time, days on market are lengthening on average, implying that consumers are taking their time before making decisions.'

'The increase in second-home purchases reflects stronger finances among higher-income households, as well as the post-COVID rise in remote work and hybrid job schedules.'..."

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Click here to view the NAR® data.

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New Home Sales During MARCH 2026

2026-05-05T17:58:00.000-04:00

The March, 2026 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department:

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Previous Month (unrevised): 635,000

Actual New Home Sales: 682,000

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Change from 1-Month Previous: +47,000 units (+7.40%)
Change from 1-Year Previous: +22,000 units (+3.33%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During MARCH, 2026: $387,400

Change from One-Year Previous: -$25,500 (-6.18%)

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During MARCH, 2026: $503,100

Change from One-Year Previous: -$6,100 (-1.2%)

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Inventory: 481,000 (-23,000 units / -4.56% Year-on-Year)

8.5 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

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================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
MARCH 2026 Update

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

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Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for APRIL 2026

2026-05-04T14:30:00.000-04:00

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (April, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

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Predicted: 90.0

Actual: 92.8

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Previous Month (revised): 92.2

Change from Previous Month: +0.65% (+0.6 point)

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

'Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board ® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI)

APRIL 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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My Uncle Got Sucked Into A "Home Depot" Phishing Scam

2026-04-27T06:16:00.000-04:00

So, I am on WhatsApp, checking out some family conversations, when I receive a message from my uncle. Message reads:

"The Home Depot 40th Anniversary. Click to enter to participate in the survey. Have a chance to win $ 8,000! BeneficialYear.TOP"

Right away, red flags go up. Looks extremely suspicious, but I click the link anyway, because I want to see what the scam looks like, so that I can warn others.

Here's a capture of the URL, and the page it took me to:

www.FedPrimeRate.com: Phishing Scam Image 1

=======

When I reloaded the page, I was taken to a totally different URL:

www.FedPrimeRate.com: Phishing Scam Image 2

First of all, if this is a survey from The Home Depot, then why on Earth would I be redirected to 2 different URLs? And why would one of the domain names use a .CN top level name, meaning it's registered in China?

Moreover: all the navigation links don't work, and the same if you try to "up" or "down" vote in the comments section.

As I investigated further, I found that Firefox is aware, and warning folks:

www.FedPrimeRate.com:
Mozilla FireFox Warning
- Deceptive Site Ahead

=======

Please people: don't forward suspicious messages to friends and family without checking them out. You could end up doing serious harm to people you care about.

>>> CLICK HERE FOR MORE SAFETY WARNINGS <<<

>>> CLICK HERE for SCAM ALERT: HOW TO AVOID BANKING AND OTHER TRENDING SCAMS; KNOW THE RED FLAGS <<<

SCAM ALERT: How to Avoid Banking And Other Trending Scams; Know The Red Flags

2026-04-26T21:25:00.000-04:00

From the good folks at Bank of America:

Be Aware Of A Trending Zelle® Payment Scam

Beware of scammers impersonating banks and fraud departments. By spoofing legitimate phone numbers to call or text you, the requests can be very convincing. While Bank of America may send you a text to validate unusual activity, we will never contact you to request that you send money using Zelle® to anyone, including yourself or to share a code to resolve fraud.

Here's What Happens:

You receive a text that looks like a Bank of America suspicious activity alert.
If you respond to the text, you've engaged the scammer and will receive a call from a number that appears to be from a bank.
The “representative” or scammer will offer to help stop the alleged fraud by asking you to send money to yourself with Zelle®.
Then, they ask you for a one time code you just received from a bank. If you give them that code, they will use it to enroll their bank account with Zelle® using your email or phone number.
The scammer now has the ability to receive your money in their account.

Being vigilant is your first line of defense; here's how to help stay protected:

Don't be pressured to act immediately — this is what scammers want you to do.
Don't trust caller ID — it's not always who it says it is.
Don't share codes based on a call you receive.

To learn more, watch this educational video layer from Zelle®

===========

Know The Scams That May Follow A Natural Disaster

Watch out for fake contractors. Following a disaster, unlicensed contractors will canvas the impacted areas promising to get clean up or repairs done quickly. They may ask for payment up front and not show up to do the work, or have you sign a contract that redirects insurance payouts to them and not you.

Do your research; get multiple quotes for comparison, and make sure the contractors are licensed.
Use caution if you're pressured to pay up front for the job or sign over the insurance claim. Contractors may try to offer special deals that seem too good to be true.

===========

CLICK HERE for much more from this
highly informative Bank of America article.

===========

#SCAMS #SCAMMERS #FRAUD #ZELLE #BofA #SCAMALERT #NEWSCAMALERT #REDFLAGS #SCAMAVOIDANCE #AVOIDSCAMS #FedPrimeRate #PHONESCAMS #EMAILSCAMS #TEXTSCAMS #BANKOFAMERICA #PHISHING #PHISHINGSCAMS #BANKSCAMS #BANKS #BANKINGSCAMS

Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for APRIL 2026

2026-04-26T05:27:00.000-04:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for April, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 49.0

Actual: 49.8

=========

Change from Previous Month: -6.57% (-3.5 points)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -4.6% (-2.4 points)

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Final ICS Reading for March 2026: 53.3
Final ICS Reading for April 2025: 52.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment ticked down 3.5 index points this month, now comparable to the trough seen in June 2022. Decreases in sentiment were seen across political party, income, age, and education.

Expected business conditions declined for both short and long time horizons, nearly matching year-ago readings when the reciprocal tariff regime was implemented.

After the two-week cease-fire was announced and gas prices softened a touch, sentiment recovered a modest portion of its early-month losses.

The Iran invasion appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices.

In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.7% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

After hovering between 3.2 and 3.3% for the previous four months, long-run inflation expectations climbed to 3.5% in April, the highest reading since October 2025. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%..."

=========

CHART: Buy-in-Advance Motives Tick Up After Start of
Iran Invasion But Remain Historically Modest So Far
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

NEW PHISHING SCAM: Facebook Has Temporarily Suspended Your Account (ACCEPT / IGNORE Button)

2026-04-25T23:45:00.000-04:00

So this is a new Facebook (FB) phishing scam....For me anyway.

Was taking care of some business on FB, when this nasty message popped up in my face (👈 image.)

It says, "Facebook has temporarily suspended your account," and it shows you two (2) buttons: [ACCEPT] and a flashing red [IGNORE.]👆

OK, so if are on FB and you see this popup message, DO NOT CLICK THAT FLASHING IGNORE BUTTON!

This is a common trick the scammer use: A fake button that makes you think that if you click it you will get rid of the popup.

But, of course, the opposite is true.

Instead of clicking the [ACCEPT] or [IGNORE] buttons, close the window.

At this point the attack may have locked up your computer so that you can't close the message.

🚨 THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOULD DO 🚨

If that's the case, then shutdown your computer, and unplug it. Unplug it even if it's a laptop.

Then wait at least 10 minutes before starting it up again.

Once you have rebooted, use your preferred virus scanner to scan your system, after you've check for the latest threat updates via the Internet.

I use Microsoft's built-in Defender Antivirus on my Windows 11 computers, and I check for the latest updates on a very regular basis (sometime multiple checks per day.)

OK, so if you accidentally click on that malicious [IGNORE] button, another popup will smack you in the face, and this time it will fill up your entire screen!

💣> Do NOT Click ANYTHING in that WINDOW! <💣

EVERYTHING in that page is MALICIOUS and can do some very serious harm to your computer, or your finances, or your private data, etc.

So, again, if you can't close that window, scroll back 👆 up this page 👆 and follow the steps under the heading "THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOULD DO" and you should be OK. 💫

Latest Norton Antivirus Protection Renewal Scam In My Inbox

2026-04-23T04:13:00.000-04:00

Email Scam Alert

OK, so here's another stupid and very lame attempt to scam the world, received in my main Gmail account today:

===============

Subject Line: Invoice Id : NJ7834H78EH39

Email Body: Dear ******* ,

Invoice Id : NJ7834H78EH39

Thank you for connected with our norton anti-virus protection. This email is to notify you that your membership for your computer security & protection has been renewed

User Id : ********@gmail.com

Congratulations, you have successfully renewed your Norton Anti-Virus Protection membership.

You have been charged the payment of $107.93 for 01 year Norton Anti-Virus Protection service from your bank account, via Debit/credit card. If you didn’t authorize the charges or if you want to continue this service.

Kindly reach us immediately at

1     8   0   6     4   5   4     5   7   3   7

Product                                       Unit Price                             Qty.                                Total Amt.
Norton Anti-Virus Protection         $107.93

This Deduction will be reflected in 2-3 business days in your bank statement.

Note- This is a system generated mail. Please do not reply to this mail ID. (1) Call our 24-hr customer care.

Thank You

===============

How lame is this scam attempt?

1) Well, the email address of the sender is: <alinasmith6254@gmail.com>

Hmmmm.....Not sent from Norton, me thinks: DERP!

2) You see how the phone number is spaced out? That's a giveaway too. The scammer has formatted it like this in the hope that it will trick the email spam filter. If the scam email goes to the spam folder, it's done.

For this particular scam email, it worked! Gmail didn't send it directly to my spam folder. I found it in my inbox.

3) I don't use Norton Antivirus. I used to, a long time ago, with Windows XP, but I gave up on it as it consumed too much cpu time -- my computers got a lot slower -- and it was too expensive. I find that Microsoft's built-in Windows Defender antivirus / anti-malware / anti-spyware works great. Of course, because I'm a total Nazi about these things, I run Windows Update every time I rest and massage my hands (to prevent carpal tunnel syndrome), which is about every 10-15 minutes.

I also run a Windows Defender Offline Scan often, because most experienced malicious coder / hacker deviants know how to hide their BS in places that are hard to clean.

A "For Food" Payment Request Scam Attempt on Cash.APP®

2026-04-22T20:24:00.000-04:00

www.FedPrimeRate.com: "For Food"
Payment Request Scam
Attempt on Cash.APP®

Here's a first: Someone trying to scam me via Cash APP®.

$25.00 for food, for someone with the name Chivo Valluco. Fake name? Sounds pretty darn fake to me! 😏

It was just a matter of time, since my business Cash App ID ($cashtag) is visible on the Internet, for all to see.

Blocking the scammer was a quick and easy.

Some of these Cash.APP scams are very crafty and sophisticated. Here's a clip from a Forbes® article:

"...Sometimes, they even send money to the Cash App user and then say it was an accident. Then they ask for a refund, but the money was initially sent from a hacked or stolen account. The user sends back the money, but now they're left with the headache of dealing with the original fraud...."

Yikes! #Beware! 😓

A Sophisticated Money Transfer Scam by Scammers Using Zelle®

2026-04-21T15:37:00.000-04:00

This New York Times article was written by Michael Wilson:

A Sophisticated Money Transfer
Scam by Scammers Using Zelle®

I’ve Written About Loads of Scams. This One Almost Got Me.
“Please hold,” the caller said, “while I transfer you to my supervisor.”

It was a Wednesday in August, a little before lunch. The call came from a 212 number, which for a New Yorker could be almost anything -- the school, the pharmacy, the roof guy -- so I answered.

The caller asked for me by name and stated in measured tones that he was from Chase® Bank and he wanted to verify transfers being made from my account to someone in Texas.

Wrong number, I said. I don’t have a Chase account.

But one was recently opened in your name, he replied, with two Zelle transfers. And minutes ago, someone tried to transfer those funds, $2,100, to San Antonio.

Now, this carried the whiff of plausibility. I’m one of some 150 million people who have access to Zelle®, the payments platform that lets you send and receive money from your phone. But my scam radar was also fully operational and pinging.

“How do I know this isn’t a scam?” I asked, sounding like that guy in every movie who asks an undercover cop if he’s a cop.

He had a quick answer. Look at the number showing on your phone and Google it, he replied. “Now look up the Chase branch at 3 Times Square,” he instructed. “See the office phone number?” I did, and it matched the one on my phone’s screen.

Then he added, “Here at Chase, we’ll never ask for your personal information or passwords.” On the contrary, he gave me more information -- two “cancellation codes” and a long case number with four letters and 10 digits.

That’s when he offered to transfer me to his supervisor. That simple phrase, familiar from countless customer-service calls, draped a cloak of corporate competence over this unfolding drama. His supervisor. I mean, would a scammer have a supervisor?

The line went mute for a few seconds, and a second man greeted me with a voice of authority. “My name is Mike Wallace,” he said, and asked for my case number from the first guy. I dutifully read it back to him.

“Yes, yes, I see,” the man said, as if looking at a screen. He explained the situation -- new account, Zelle® transfers, Texas -- and suggested we reverse the attempted withdrawal.

I’m not proud to report that by now, he had my full attention, and I was ready to proceed with whatever plan he had in mind.

Internet fraud has grown steadily, with 2024 setting new record-high losses -- “a staggering $16.6 billion,” the F.B.I.’s annual Internet Crime Complaint Center wrote in a recent report. These crimes include elaborate cryptocurrency schemes and ransomware attacks on entire cities, but phishing and spoofing -- the cloning of an actual phone number -- still lead the list of some 860,000 complaints last year.

Are these scams entering some sort of improved, 2.0 version of the old-school Nigerian-prince-type setup?

“I wouldn’t call it an improvement,” said Paul Roberts, an assistant special agent in charge of the New York offices of the F.B.I. “It’s an adaptation. As the public becomes more aware of schemes, they need to adjust.”

The man claiming to be a Chase supervisor asked me to open Zelle. Where it says, “Enter an amount,” he instructed me to type $2,100, the amount of the withdrawals he was going to help me reverse.

Then, in the “Enter phone number or email” window -- where the other party in a Zelle transaction goes -- he instructed me to type the case number the first caller had given me, but to leave out the four letters. Numbers only. I dutifully entered the 10 digits, but my skepticism was finally showing up.

“Mr. Wallace,” I said, somewhat apologetically. “This case number sure looks like a phone number, and I’m about to send that number $2,100.”

No, he replied, because of this important next step. In the window that says “What’s this for? ” where you might add “babysitter” or “block party donation,” he told me to enter a unique code that would alert his team that this transaction should be reversed.

It was incredibly long, and he read it out slowly -- “S, T, P, P, six, seven, one, two …” -- and I typed along. Now and then he even threw in some military-style lingo: “… zero, zero, Charlie, X-ray, nine, eight …”

Once we were done, he had me read the whole 19-character code back to him.

Now, he said, press “Send.”

But one word above the “What’s this for?” box containing our special code with the X-ray and the Charlie kept bothering me: “Optional.”

Then I had an idea, and asked the supervisor if he was calling from 3 Times Square. Yes, he said.

I’ll come to you, I said, and we’ll fix this together.

By then it will probably be too late, he said.

“I’ll call you back,” I said, and he said that would be fine, and I hung up.

I called my bank and confirmed what I’d come to suspect. There had been no recent Zelle activity.

My jaw dropped when I went back and looked at my call history. Sixteen minutes — that’s how long they had me on the line.

In decades as a crime reporter, I’ve covered many, many scams -- psychic scams, sweetheart swindles, real-estate scams, even the obscure “nanny scam,” where a fake mother reaches out to a young caregiver to try to rip her off.

I should be able to spot a scam in under 16 seconds, I thought -- but 16 minutes?

I wanted to know why this scam seemed to work so much better than others...

The full article continues here
(New York Times subscription required)

Existing Home Sales During MARCH 2026

2026-04-13T22:43:00.001-04:00

Existing Home Sales report for March, 2026 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,130,000

Actual: 3,980,000

======================

Change from Previous Month: -3.63% (+150,000 homes)
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -1.0% (-40,000 homes)

======================

Inventory: 1,360,000 homes.

(4.1 months supply | +30,000 [+2.26%] homes Y-o-Y.)

Median Price: $408,800
Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.41% (+$5,700)

------------------------------------------------------

==========

Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

Click Here for New Home Sales Data.

Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. 'Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.'

'Inventory remains a major constraint on the market,' Yun said. 'The inventory-to-sales ratio, or supply-to-demand ratio, is below historical norms. An additional 300,000 to 500,000 homes for sale would help bring the market closer to normal conditions and allow consumers to make purchase decisions without feeling rushed.'

'Because inventory remains limited, the median home price rose to a new record high for the month of March,' Yun added. 'That price growth has helped the typical homeowner accumulate $128,100 in housing wealth over the past six years.'

'Mortgage rates have been rising, and that has led us to trim our home sales outlook for the year,' said Yun. 'Even with a more modest pace of sales growth, home prices continue to steadily increase due to minimal inventory growth.'..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

MARCH 2026 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2026 REALTORS®)

==================

Click here to view the NAR® data.

==================

Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for APRIL 2026

2026-04-12T01:14:00.000-04:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for April, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 54.0

Actual: 47.6

=========

Change from Previous Month: -10.69% (-5.7 points)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -8.81% (-4.6 points)

=========

Final ICS Reading for March, 2026: 53.3
Final ICS Reading for April, 2025: 52.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago.

Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall.

One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.

Buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened, again on the basis of high prices. Open ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy. Note that 98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire.

Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025 (see chart, black dashed line and black circle).

The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% last month to 3.4% this month, the highest reading since November 2025.

In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%..."

=========

CHART: Expectations Worsen After Start of
Invasion of Iran, Particularly Over Short Run
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

Fake (and Verified!) Accounts on X.com: This is NOT Timothy Geithner

2026-04-06T23:48:00.000-04:00

This is NOT Timothy Geithner

So this scammer using a fake X.com account, posing as former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, sent me a direct message (DM) with the words "Greetings Brother."

This fake account has a convincing username: @SECTIMOTHY.
The account is Verified, so this scammer paid for verification. They are stepping up their game. Scammers are now willing to pay to create convincing fake accounts on X.com. There was a time when the Verified blue checkmark could be faked. No longer. Elon fixed that.
The account has only 1,180 followers. For a former Treasury boss? Another giveaway.
Not a talented scammer, for sure. No header image. Lame.
Why would a former Treasury boss send me a DM saying, "Greetings Brother???" Stupid.
The profile is described as "75th U.S. Secretary of the Treasury from 2009 to 2013 now based in private sector." Watch out for fake "spam and scam" accounts like this one. Block and report them. ✅👍🙌

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for MARCH 2026

2026-04-01T18:12:00.001-04:00

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 88.0

Actual: 91.8

================

Previous Month (revised): 91.0

Change from Previous Month: +0.9% (+0.8 point)

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...While not obvious in the headline or its component indexes, the weight of rising costs due to tariff pass-through and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations.

'Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

'Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.'..."

================

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

================

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

MARCH 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for MARCH 2026

2026-03-30T19:50:00.001-04:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for March, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 54.0

Actual: 53.3

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Change from Previous Month: -5.83% (-3.3 points)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -6.49% (-3.7 points)

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Final ICS Reading for February 2026: 56.6
Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran invasion, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment.

Overall, the short-run economic outlook plunged 14%, and year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%, while declines in long-run expectations were more subdued.

These patterns suggest that, at this time, consumers may not expect recent negative developments to persist far into the future. These views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation.

Interviews for this release were collected between February 17 and March 23, with about two-thirds completed after the start of the US military invasion of Iran.

Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.4% in February to 3.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations inched down to 3.2%. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. Note that for both time horizons, interviews completed after February 28th exhibited higher inflation expectations than those completed before that date..."

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CHART: Expectations Worsen After Start of
Invasion of Iran, Particularly Over Short Run
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

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Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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March 27, 2026 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

2026-03-27T21:00:00.008-04:00

March 27, 2026: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished the week in correction territory, joining the NASDAQ Composite index, which fell into correction yesterday (March 26.)

NYMEX front month WTI crude oil closed at $101.16 per barrel (CHART)...

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

DJIA: -10.01% (-5,021.50 points) - CHART

NASDAQ Composite: -12.56% (-3,010.11 points) - CHART
S&P 500: -8.74% (-609.75 points) - CHART

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CHART: NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Price History
March 27, 2026 UPDATE
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CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
March 27, 2026 UPDATE
===============

Currently, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on April 29, 2026.

Stay tuned...

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New Home Sales During JANUARY 2026

2026-03-20T21:29:53.323-04:00

The January, 2026 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department:

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Previous Month (unrevised): 712,000

Actual New Home Sales: 587,000

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Change from 1-Month Previous: -125,000 units (-17.56%)
Change from 1-Year Previous: -75,000 units (-11.33%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During January, 2026: $400,500

Change from One-Year Previous: -$29,100 (-6.77%)

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Average Price for a New Home
During January, 2026: $499,500

Change from One-Year Previous: -$18,700 (-3.61%)

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Inventory: 472,000 (-17,000 units / -3.48% Year-on-Year)

7.6 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
JANUARY 2026 Update

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.

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Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

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Existing Home Sales During FEBRUARY 2026

2026-03-10T18:44:00.000-04:00

Existing Home Sales report for February, 2026 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 4,020,000

Actual: 4,090,000

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Change from Previous Month: +1.74% (+70,000 homes)
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -1.45% (-60,000 homes)

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Inventory: 1,290,000 homes.

(3.8 months supply | +60,000 [+4.88%] homes Y-o-Y.)

Median Price: $398,000
Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.3% (+$1,200)

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==========

Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

Click Here for New Home Sales Data.

Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

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From Today's Report:

"...'Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. 'Still, there is a long way to go to return to pre-pandemic levels of transaction activity. There are more than 6 million more jobs than in 2019, yet home sales per year are down by one million.'

'Despite the modest gain in home sales, actual housing demand remains muted relative to wage growth and job gains,' Yun continued. 'Wage growth is now outpacing home price growth by almost four percentage points. Mortgage rates are also measurably lower compared to a year ago.'

'Inventory is growing, but sluggishly,' he added. 'If demand picks up notably in the coming months and outpaces supply growth, home prices will inevitably rise. That is why increasing supply is so important to help limit home price growth, improve housing affordability, and boost transactions.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2026 REALTORS®)

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Click here to view the NAR® data.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for FEBRUARY 2026

2026-02-25T08:47:00.000-05:00

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

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Predicted: 88.0

Actual: 91.2

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Previous Month (revised): 89.0

Change from Previous Month: +2.47% (+2.2 points)

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).'

'Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds. Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February. Labor market mentions eased a bit in February, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.'..."

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The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

FEBRUARY 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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New Home Sales During DECEMBER 2025

2026-02-20T21:30:00.042-05:00

The December, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department:

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Previous Month (unrevised): 758,000

Actual New Home Sales: 745,000

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Change from 1-Month Previous: -13,000 units (-1.72%)
Change from 1-Year Previous: +27,000 units (+3.76%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During December, 2025: $414,400

Change from One-Year Previous: -$8,600 (-2.03%)

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Average Price for a New Home
During December, 2025: $532,600

Change from One-Year Previous: +$23,700 (+4.66%)

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Inventory: 472,000 (-17,000 units / -3.48% Year-on-Year)

7.6 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
DECEMBER 2025 Update

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.

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Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for FEBRUARY 2026

2026-02-20T13:26:00.031-05:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for February, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0

Actual: 56.6

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Change from Previous Month: +0.35% (+0.2 point)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -12.52% (-8.1 points)

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Final ICS Reading for January 2026: 56.4
Final ICS Reading for February 2025: 64.7

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment stagnated this month with very little change, just 0.2 index points higher than January. All index components posted insignificant movements this month; overall, consumers do not perceive any material differences in the economy from last month.

About 46% of consumers spontaneously mentioned high prices eroding their personal finances; readings have exceeded 40% for seven months in a row. Sentiment is about 13% below a year ago and 21% below January 2025.

That said, views vary considerably across the population. A sizable month-to-month increase in sentiment for the largest stockholders was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings. Similar divergences were seen across income and education, where higher-income or college educated consumers exhibited increases in sentiment while lower-income or less-educated counterparts did not.

With their much stronger income prospects and investment portfolios, wealthier and higher-income consumers feel better insulated from any possible risks to the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.4% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.3%, just above the 2.8% and 3.2% range seen in 2024. In 2019 and 2020, long-run inflation expectations were consistently below 2.8%. Uncertainty, as measured by the middle 50% of expectations, is now its lowest since December 2024 for the short run and October 2024 for the long run..."

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CHART: Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
but Recently Converged for Consumers
Who Did and Did Not Mention Tariffs
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

Existing Home Sales During JANUARY 2026

2026-02-12T22:53:00.000-05:00

Existing Home Sales report for January, 2026 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 4,270,000

Actual: 3,910,000

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Change from Previous Month: -8.43% (-360,000 homes)
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -4.4% (-180,000 homes)

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Inventory: 1,220,000 homes.

(3.7 months supply | +40,000 [+3.39%] homes Y-o-Y.)

Median Price: $396,800
Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.86% (+$3,400)

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==========

Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

Click Here for New Home Sales Data.

Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'The decrease in sales is disappointing. The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun.

'Affordability conditions are improving, with NAR’s Housing Affordability Index showing that housing is the most affordable it’s been since March 2022. This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low.'

'Due to low supply, the median home price reached a new high for the month of January,' Yun added. 'Homeowners are in a financially comfortable position as a result. Since January 2020, a typical homeowner would have accumulated $130,500 in housing wealth.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

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Click here to view the NAR® data.

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Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for FEBRUARY 2026

2026-02-06T20:04:00.000-05:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for February, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 52.0

Actual: 57.3

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Change from Previous Month: +1.6% (+0.9 point)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -11.44% (-7.4 points)

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Final ICS Reading for January, 2026: 56.4
Final ICS Reading for February, 2025: 64.7

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings.

On net, modest increases in current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were offset by a small decline in long-run business conditions.

While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small -- well under the margin of error -- and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread. Interviews for this release cover the two-week period that ended this past Monday.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.5% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations inched up for the second straight month, from 3.3% last month to 3.4% this month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020..."

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CHART: Wealth Gaps in Sentiment Continue to Widen,
Mirroring Trends Seen in 2023 and 2024

FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE

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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JANUARY 2026

2026-01-27T17:35:00.000-05:00

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (January, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

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Predicted: 89.0

Actual: 84.5

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Previous Month (revised): 94.2

Change from Previous Month: -10.3% (-9.7 points)

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. 'All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2) -- surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.'

Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher.'..."

================

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

JANUARY 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for JANUARY 2026

2026-01-23T20:16:00.012-05:00

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for January, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

Actual: 56.4

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Change from Previous Month: +6.62% (+3.5 points)

Change from 12-Months Previous: -21.34% (-15.3 points)

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Final ICS Reading for December 2025: 52.9
Final ICS Reading for January 2025: 71.7

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment lifted about 3.5 index points this month, with minor gains seen across all index components. While the overall improvement was small, it was broad based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike.

However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago, as consumers continue to report pressures on their purchasing power stemming from high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets.

Aside from tariff policy, consumers do not appear to be connecting foreign developments to their views of the economy. Note that interviews for this release concluded on January 19th, two days after Trump’s social media post announcing additional tariffs on eight countries in Europe..."

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CHART: Inflation Uncertainty Down from Q2, 2025
Peaks but Remains Substantially Elevated
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========

Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========