Why are Central London property prices booming and will this continue?

House prices will continue to rise in central London in the first half of 2012.  There is an investment bubble growing with some unsustainable price rises occurring.  Last week in Mayfair someone who had had an offer accepted at£ 6.5 million was gazumped by an offer of £8.5 million.  So this increase must level out and may fall back if prices continue at the same rate for another year.

There are strong market forces sustaining this price growth.  At the heart of the market, there are too many international buyers and not enough properties to go around.

Why have prices increased?

1. Many of those who make their money trading in stocks and bonds tell me they are now wary of buying over valued stock levels, and so need to divest a percentage of their investment portfolio into bricks and mortar.

2. With interest rates destined to remain at record low levels until 2014 or 2016 it makes sense to buy property, which will also act as an inflation hedge

3.Property in London is a good currency hedge against the Euro.  If the Euro does devalue, or break up, money in pounds sterling in bricks and mortar (not the bank) is a good risk

4. Alternative safe havens against the Euro such as the Swiss franc and gold are horribly overvalued by historic comparison, whereas central London property is only just passing 2007 value levels

5.London presently has a lack of a wealth tax on property compared to many European countries, and while wealth taxes are very much a part of socialist ideology in the Liberal camp, no one believes that a Conservative led coalition would seek to damage London as a destination with such a fundamental change to the tax system.  Not during difficult economic times anyway;

6.Many see London property as a useful investment.

Why is the market outside London so different?

The market in central London is driven by international cash.  With the exception of some small enclaves of interest to international buyers such as Ascot, Sunningdale, the Wentworth Estate, and St Georges Hill, the rest of the English market is reliant on English buyers and their cash.

Sales volumes have been at record lows because there is limited cash and many banks do not what to lend buyers outside of areas of international interest, unless the buyer has substantial equity to offer.

What will happen to the property market if Greece defaults?

A Greek default is already built into the financial market and in my view this needs to occur to allow Greece to recover from a downward spiral.  The risk is whether a Greek default triggers another default elsewhere.

A Greek default would be good for Greeks who presently own London property!  If the new currency devalues by 50% the value of equity in property in London comparatively doubles.  It will instantly become a lot cheaper to buy property in Greece.  More importantly Greece’s tourism industry on which it depends should pick up because it will be cheaper for us to go there.  This should be good for their long term recovery.

What will happen to the property market in England if the Eurozone breaks up as a result of the Greek default triggering a larger sovereign default?

Following the Greek default the Eurozone should continue, but in recession or very low growth for many years.  Worst case scenario is is sovereign defaults, reissuing of currency, and bank failures across Europe, but this is highly unlikely.

Even if the Eurozone did break up, my French colleagues still see central London luxury property as a safe haven against devaluing new European currencies.

Where is the greatest capital gain to be made in property?

The greatest capital gain to be made in property is to buy property which is sought after by an international buyer (which restricts areas in England considerably) and in which the property can be converted to a higher and better use.  For example buying a commercial property at low commercial rates, and gaining planning to convert to residential.  Or buying a leasehold property with a very short lease and extending the lease.

There is little money to be made in refurbishing property without doing something else to increase value, unless you are at the multi million pound end of the market.

What should I do if I need to sell a property, and cant because it isn’t near London or in one of the small country enclaves sought by internationals?

You can convert your property to a higher and better use.  Are you able to add more bedrooms within the existing floor space?  Are you able to add land easily?  Can you extend the lease or gain the freehold?  If you can’t sell or improve, you could rent it out and move into a smaller property within the area that you need to move to.

Which other international markets offer the potential for good capital gain?

The French part of Switzerland, and particularly Geneva is a good bet.  Again the currency is separate from the Euro, as is the pound.  There is more demand for property than there is supply and Geneva is a sought after destination by international buyers because it is a safe haven with good access to other parts of Europe.

The Cote D ‘Azur is also a good bet. Properties with a sea view didn’t drop in price through the last recession.  Limited supply and worldwide demand also helps.

Monaco is also a good investment because there no more room there to build more property which means supply is limited. There is a lot of Eastern European money and non-domiciled English money pouring into property here which has helped Monaco achieve Europe’s highest prices per square foot.

The property is not ideal for human habitation, but would be the perfect bolt hole for someone with a throaty voice who likes leather and drinks petrol.

Prime central London estate agency WA Ellis is asking suitable buyers to jump start offers at £525,000, a record asking price for a garage, says a partner at the firm, Robert Lewis. “It is very rare to get a freehold garage in Knightsbridge, so it is exceptionally valuable,” he says.

“We anticipate interest from those already living within a two-three minute walk of the garage, for example the large houses on Walton Place, where there is no off-street parking.”

The garage (pictured, above), which costs three times the national average house price, is on Rybrack Street, a few minutes’ work from Harrods, and measures 6.4 metres by 4.75 metres.

Such high prices for garages in London are surprising but not rare – demand is strong among wealthy homeowners for garages, this is because many of them own central London homes without off-street parking and, therefore, need somewhere to park their valuable cars.

At the moment there are only a handful of garages for sale in the capital’s central districts, including a garage and lock-up on Holland Park Terrace, close to Holland Park tube station, currently for sale at £250,000.

One cheaper alternative might be to buy a one-bedroom flat locally and then buy a bike – Foxtons has two one-bedders for sale locally at under £500,000.

Most recent is Staines in Surrey, home town (most famously) to comedy character Ali G and which added ‘on-Thames’ top its name last month. And in a few weeks’ time the Oxfordshire town of Abingdon is following suit when it asks permission from its district council to adopt ‘on-Thames’ too.

Let's reflect on the river: Abingdon in Oxfordshire is trying to change its name

Others are further behind. Conservative MP Dan Byles, who represents North Warwickshire, is waging a largely failed campaign to have his constituency’s name altered to include ‘and Bedworth’ to reflect geographic (rather than political) reality.

And residents of a south Wales village, Sully in the Vale of Glamorgan, want to alter the recently created alternative Welsh version of their locale – Sili – because it sounds “silly”, a spokesman said.

Changing moniker is not a new trend, of course. A quick look at the names of Britain’s 44 cities, 928 towns and 4,520 villages reveals how often they have changed theirs over the decades, centuries and even millennia.

Many alter ‘organically’ as the English language develops (Swindon was once SwineDun meaning Pig Hill) but in more recent times places have changed their name more abruptly for a variety of reasons.

The London borough of Greenwich, which is now very Royal.

The most common is when monarchy comes knocking. Last month the London borough of Greenwich gained ‘Royal’ status, the first local authority to win the Queen’s approval in more than 85 years. And in October last year the Wiltshire town of Wootton Bassett, famed for its silent tributes to soldiers killed in war as they pass through its high street, was also renamed ‘Royal’.

Name changes can be controversial, too. A councillor in the village of Kenardington, Kent, got into trouble in 2009 when she asked for a thoroughfare to be changed from Church Road to ‘Lane’ to prevent confusion with an identically named road in a nearby (and similarly named) village. Locals, however, thought her proposal largely an attempt to make Kenardington sound (and look) more ‘middle class’ and to ‘boost property prices’.

And then there’s the ‘simples’ PR opportunity. Insurance website comparethemarket.com recently claimed to have persuaded Market Harborough in Leicestershire to change its name following a Facebook campaign. The town was known Meerkat Harborough for a day.

This nugget of local information comes from a yearly survey conducted by lender the Halifax, arguably one of the best and yet most ignored pieces of research about the nation.

Maldon, Essex is Britain's driest place - one of many spots measured for their highs and lows by lender the Halifax.

The bank’s ‘Quality of Life’ survey is a fascinating peek each year at where you really should live but probably don’t. Or if you are lucky enough to have an address within its list of ‘top 50’ feted areas, it’s more likely to be by mistake than by design.

Because for years research has repeatedly shown that we reluctantly stray from familiar territory –  half of us move less than five miles from our original address. And only 14% of us move 100 miles or more.

Some of the measures that the Halifax holds up to each of our towns, cities or rural parishes are very worthy, including how large primary school classes are, quality of GCSE results, life expectancy and a population’s health, employment levels and earnings. Also, it marks where the cheapest property is to be found. It’s in Pendle, Lancashire.

Its other measures are more surprising . The place to move where  employments is highest? The Shetland Islands – so get your fishing gear out. The highest wages are in the Chilterns (at £857 a week) so get  your pin striped suit dry cleaned if you aim to move there.

But if you hate traffic jams then, as well as a sturdy removals van to consider, there’s also devolution. Lowest traffic flows in the UK (as it exists today) are in the Highlands, Argyll and Bute, Orkney as well as Shetland Islands and Dumfries and Galloway – home to Gretna Green, which nevertheless gets a bit busy on Saturdays.

The greenest place to park your environmental concern is either in East Cambridgeshire or South Derbyshire, where the per-person carbon dioxide output is two tonnes – which sounds like a lot of car exhaust to us.

Lastly, wandering lonely as a cloud – or more accurately as a Scot – is the joy of Western Isles inhabitants, where just 23 people live per square mile, compared to the capital of cheek by jowl, the borough of Thanet where 3,312 people live in each of its square miles.

As featured in press adverts running at the moment (see below), instead of paying up to £15 to get in on the day, you can get in for free. So you’ll enjoy the show’s seven different ‘shows within a show’ including Build, the UK’s largest self-build event. Others include colour coded areas covering kitchens, interiors, gardens, bathrooms, technology and village, the show’s eco-homes hub.

To claim your free weekday ticket to Grand Designs Live sponsored by Direct Line now, Quote ‘PL2012FW’ on the booking page at www.granddesignslive.com*

*Terms and conditions: tickets valid for one day only for standard admission between 8th and 11th May 2012 and are subject to limited availability on a first come, first served basis. Tickets must be booked in advance by 15/4/12. Tickets are print at home tickets and subject to a maximum of 2 tickets per household. Tickets are non-transferable and all tickets will be checked and verified on entry.

That will be the scene this Saturday if you are one of the thousands clutching a betting slip at the course – or on the edge of your sofa – and if you win big then we have a house for sale ideal for the recently enriched equine enthusiast.

It’s in Bredons Norton, north of Tewkesbury in Gloucestershire and has, as well as a small paddock and stables, a very strong and winning connection to the nation’s favourite horse race.

Because for the last eight years of its life chestnut gelding Royal Athlete (pictured, above), the horse that won the 1995 Grand National, lived after the property’s owners Mr and Mrs Chugg were given the horse after the race by his trainer, Jenny Pitman.

Royal Athlete was a favourite with the betting fraternity, but probably not with the bookies. Entered reluctantly by Pitman after the racing horse’s owners insisted he run, Royal Athlete attracted odds of 40-1 on the day – the 8^th April 1995 and the 145^th Grand National – mainly because he had fallen during an earlier race and was expected to be rested for the Scottish Grand National two weeks later.

When questioned by the BBC’s Des Lynam during a post-race interview Pitman revealed how she had tried to talk Royal Athlete’s owners out of entering him into the race, although it is assumed the £118,854 prize money she picked up helped soften the blow of being overruled.

A brass plaque (pictured) fixed to the front of the property’s stables commemorates Royal Athlete, which aged 12 won its most famous race by seven lengths ridden by 24-year-old Irishman, Jason Titley.

The property is for salt at £625,000 through Hamptons International’s Cheltenham office.

The curious and most surprising effect of the financial crisis, though, has been to turn this assumption on its head.

Going green: a cottage in Cornwall with solar panels added.

Because it would appear that going green means, for millions of us, saving money.  A nice comparison would be washing up liquid. While during the boom times many ‘eco friendly’ washing up liquids flew off the shelves, today people are instead switching to cheaper, non-green alternatives but, instead, using them much more carefully.

And so it is with the rest of our homes. Recent research reveals that half of us are more concerned with energy efficiency  now than they were last year, mainly because it’s all about saving money.

And we have the global energy shortage to thank. Household energy bills rose by 21 per cent (or £221) in 2011 and so we’re all going green in a bid so claw back our cash.

So now we’re all running about switching off lights (87% of us), using energy efficient bults (85%), switching off appliances rather than leaving them on standby (76%), turning the heating off when we’re not in (70%) and wearing more clothes when we are (64%).

And to ram home the point the research, conducted by M&S Home Insurance, shows that 17% of those surveyed were real ‘greenies’ with the environment, rather than their pockets, in mind.

What this research really reveals is that, despite a monumental effort by governments, business (such as M&S which offers green home insurance) and organisations such as Greenpeace, the environmental cause is still only skin deep among many home owners.

This is obvious from the research results, which show that the quick-win money saving home upgrades are the most popular – loft insulation, double glazing – while the less obvious are not so popular, such as upgrading to energy efficient boilers and solar panels.

And green is old, too. Nearly 90% of 55 year olds are keen on green bulbs and turning off lights, compared to just half of 25-year-olds, somewhat contradicting the ‘young eco-warrior’ image the green movement has.

In an environment of government cost cutting but also tax revenue raising, Chancellor George Osborne still needs to ease the burden for the wider public to stimulate growth. And stamp duty is his political escape route. But how much will it raise?

Of the 610,000 or so recorded house sales in England last year just over 1,600 were for properties sold for £2m or more of which four out of five were in London, netting Mr Osborne approximately £360 million.

The higher rate will bring in another £250-400 million, taking the total tax take to the £600-800m million mark. This is small beer compared to the £110 billion that the government has overspent over the past year or so, but at least the number of £2 million-plus homes being sold is on the increase, providing Osborne with some hope.

Wildwood in Hampstead: For sale at £18.75m with agent Glentree International. The property could soon cost its buyer £1.31m in stamp duty.

In 2010 some 1,550 homes worth £2 million or more were sold, rising to £1,610 last year while the number of overall house purchases dropped over the same period, by 22,721 to 642,230 a year.

So it’s all down to politics. If Osborne really wanted to squeeze significant tax revenue out of the property market then increased stamp duty lower down the price bands would be more logical, although less popular.

Revenues on properties selling for between £250,000 and £1 million (3% and 4% duty respectively) account for 79% of the chancellor’s stamp duty revenue, research by lender the Halifax revealed recently. London and the South East also account for almost three quarters of all the tax’s revenue – so put the two together and you have basically the rump of the Conservative voter base, a group Mr Osborne wouldn’t want to upset.

But most experts think the extra duty is unlikely to inflict any long term damage on the prime property market.

“An additional stamp duty burden will freeze the market for at least three months, but eventually reality and acceptance would set in,” says James Geddes of Private Property Search. “Prices would also drop around the £2m mark as those currently advertising their homes for just over that drop their prices to slip their property under the stamp duty threshold.”

Miles Meacock of agent Strutt & Parker, says: “There will be a hiatus surrounding this daunting new tax bracket but that I think it will be highly unlikely our market will take a hammering.

“The London market is swelled by foreign investment, many of whom want to invest in Central London whatever the tax implications and with Italy’s comparable tax, for example, set at 10%, London should still seem a slightly less painful investment option.”

But what the thousands of theatergoers and tourists who pass the plaque every day won’t know is that Wanamaker lived nearby in a one-storey Grade II listed home (pictured, below) that, although less impressive, is just as extraordinary in many ways.

The Surrey Dispensary on Falmouth Road in Camberwell is a 20 minute walk from the theatre; a journey that passes through some historic parts of the London. Pass through Dickens Square, turn left up Trinity Street (as in the Trinity Lighthouse organisation) and then wheel right up Globe Street, a name which may have stuck Wanamaker when lived there as prescient.

The actor (pictured, below overseeing the Globe’s construction) bought the freehold to 4 Falmouth Road off Trinity House in the 1970s although it had already been used as a home by Swedish actress Mai Zetterling (who starred alongside Angelica Huston in the 1990 film The Witches) prior to this. The current owners, celebrated Sunday Times photographer Ken Griffiths and his wife (and renowned film producer) Rebekah Gilbertson, bought the property off Wanamaker in 1985.

Rebekah’s most famous film is The Edge of Love with Kiera Knightly and Sienna Miller which is based on the story of her grandparents. She also produced Patagonia which was selected as the British entry for the best foreign language film at the 84th Academy Awards.

When The Surrey Dispensary charity moved to the address in 1927 it was to supply the local poor with free medical care in a pre-NHS age. The charity, which has been running since 1777, was first based at Union Street – near what’s now Tate Modern – before moving in 1840 to Great Dover Street (now the A2) and then Falmouth Street.

Wannamaker’s former home, which still bears the charity’s name in large letters across its roofline, is rambling to say the least at over 3,400 sq ft. Built as a single storey, it was converted to feature a large open plan lounge and living area (pictured, below), three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a shower room, two studies, a darkroom, four outside vaults, basement, small storage room and a huge roof terrace.

The actor, who came to the UK in the early 1950s after being hounded out of the US by the McCarthy political ‘witch hunts’, soon began gathering funds and supporters to build a replica Globe near to the original site of the 16^th century theatre while working in the UK as both an actor and director.

Wanamaker died in 1993 at the age of 74 four years before The Globe was opened by The Queen on 12^th June 1997. His former home is now for sale with Hamptons for £2.95 million.

Thankfully, another festive season is past. It seems to get longer each year; it started in late November and is not truly over until the start of the second week in January. It is always an interesting juggle to morph from the workplace into attempting to become an amazing wife and earth mother. Particularly if one happens to be busy which I fortunately was.

2011 was a year most people want to forget or re write  but fortunately I was fully absorbed with  a number of fabulous projects  spread around the south of England, ranging from a top-end private client fit out; the hard specification for a 9000 sq ft house and then to furnish it; through to show units for a top developer . Thrown in the middle of these commissions was a very snazzy night club refurbishment in Crawley on a very tight fit out program.  Those four projects were, of course, intermingled with obligatory fact finding and  travel.

This year, though, opened with the fit out of a palatial show house in Hertfordshire handed over on 21st January (thankfully  avoiding Friday the 13^th the previous week I’m not superstitious but let’s not tempt fate).

After that it was time for our annual visit to Paris for Maison Objet 2012. In my view this is unfailingly one of the best ‘trade’ interiors exhibitions in Europe, covering all aspects of interiors and decoration with some stunning stands and lots of new ideas, each year from around the world. I have never been disappointed with the exhibition and an additional benefit is a couple of days in Paris for some sightseeing and a foray into Rue Honore for a spot of window shopping.

Fresh from Paris and now of course re inspired, I have two new immediate tasks to perform.  One is to advise on a what sounds like an amazing project in Antigua, the client has purchased a hillside plot with views to die for at Reeds Point, which overlooks a two mile golden sandy beach and the beautiful Caribbean Sea.  The debate is whether to have an ultra modern structure or a south east Asian style of structure – both different but a great challenge for an interior designer. I just can’t wait to start this project, not to mention a spot of winter sun won’t go amiss.

The other short, medium and long term project that I have unbridled enthusiasm for and am really looking forward to, is our own new home.  The planning is now finally through and we can get going.  For me, it is a new challenge to actually have to live with what I choose.  So I fear the decision process could be more of a challenge.  So hard hats on and off we go.