Too many for sale? How can there be so many homes for sale but no buyers?

After this blog last month started a healthy debate both here and on Twitter, let’s take it to the next level. House price analysts say a glut of homes on sale and falling numbers of buyers are causing small price drops now, with perhaps more to come.

But if people buy and sell at the same time, as most surely do, why are demand and supply out of line?

The mismatch
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says in mid-2007, before the credit crunch, estate agents typically sold 45% of their stock every three months. That fell to 15% in mid-2008 before rising to 30% early this year.

But now, with more homes on sale, the sale-to-stock ratio is back down to 24%.

Exploding a myth
This increased supply suggests that in reality selling and buying do not necessarily happen simultaneously. There is a small but important time gap.

Research by Santander says 1.1m homes in Brtain were put on the market in the year to  August but did not sell, often because would-be buyers could not get a mortgage.

Some estate agents say that as a result, more sellers now wait to find a purchaser before registering as buyers themselves to avoid spending time and energy finding a dream home only to lose it because they cannot sell their old property.

“Supply and demand balance over time but there’s always a lag, never an exact balance. A year ago there were more buyers but fewer homes, so prices rose. Now it’s the reverse” says Lucian Cook, research guru at estate agent Savills.

In addition the new-build sector, which slumped in 2008 and 2009, is recovering and adds 120,000 new properties on sale per year without creating new buyers.

Dying, divorcing but not buying
A further factor is probate sales; elderly owners die and their properties are sold by relatives who already own homes – so they inherit the proceeds and do not buy. Land Registry figures show that in 2007 some 7% of deals were probate sales. But now, with home sales halved but death rates static, they account for 15% of the market.

There are also 120,000 divorces a year. Analysis by Savills shows that in a third of cases the couple sell their home and, at first, each person rents before buying later.

In the past these ‘sell-but-not-buy’ figures have been balanced or outweighed by first time buyers, who purchase with nothing to sell. But tougher mortgage conditions and average deposits rising to £35,000 mean FTB numbers are 50% of the level in 2007.

Let’s see if that starts a debate.

Estate for sale: Trevalga in Devon

Selling a village lock, stock is a strange and even savage English custom that despite the heartache it can cause, takes place with unfortunate regularity.

Last year it was the Linkenholt estate in Berkshire (sold off for £25m) but this time round it’s Trevalga in Devon, where a dying man’s wish is about to be broken after the school he gifted the village to in his will has, against his wishes, put it up for sale.

Marlborough College insist their charity status forces them to sell up regardless but this week the Charity Commission weighed in saying this was not true and that, as long as the college re-invests the profits, a sale is not necessary. To add to the political mix, the MP for North Devon is on the hunt for the real reason behind the sale and is taking the campaign to Parliament.

Before his death in 1959 Gerald Curgenven set up a trust for his 1,200 acre Cornish estate of Trevalga in which he willed the profits from the trust to his former school, Marlborough College, with a dying wish that the hamlet not be sold, broken up or the tenants removed.

For 51 years happiness has reigned but the Trust came to an end in June of this year, transferring absolute ownership from the Trustees to the college. Not content with the £170,000-a-year income, the college have put the Trevalga Estate on the market at £10 million.

Marlborough College is a registered charity and says it had been forced to put the estate up for sale rather than break charity laws on owning land as an investment. But it has now emerged that the college may be selling the estate for other reasons.

As registered charities, independent schools save £100 million in tax across the sector but the Charity Commission is clamping down and making them give back more to the community, such as taking in non-fee paying pupils. A plan to raise the finance to cover this lost revenue was hinted at in last year’s Marlborough Colldge accounts: “a possible entitlement to the capital value of the Trevalga Estate has been identified”.

Until the sale is completed the 85 villagers’ future is uncertain. Belief in Gerald Curgenven’s wish to keep the hamlet unspoilt and allow them to remain had led some to spend up to £30,000 in home renovations. But it is now feared that if Trevalga is sold they will be evicted with eight week’s notice. Those on longer term tenancies worry their village community will go the same way as other areas in Cornwall where locals have been priced out of the market by wealthy second home owners.

The villagers do have a white knight in the form of North Cornwall MP Dan Rogerson who has started a campaign to prove that the £28,000-a-year college, with alumni such as Kate Middleton and Princess Eugenie, has an as-yet unidentified ulterior motive for selling Trevalga – and is to highlight the campaign in Parliament when it reconvenes on 6^th September.

You can join the battle to save Trevalga on its facebook page, which already has 1, 240 members.

For sale: one of the pretty stone cottages included in the £10m sell off

Yes, it does sound like bad news, but look behind the headlines and you will see there’s a little more to it. Most importantly, the supply of properties has surged. As the laws of supply and demand dictate that stock going up will drive prices down in the short term, perhaps this explains the price falls?

And more importantly, an influx of stock coming on to the market is also a good indication that things are finally starting to return to a normal, post credit crunch way of life.

Some figures are in fact going in the right direction (but good news doesn’t make good headlines), particularly in the Prime market. Our July Prime Index (which is based on asking prices and looks at two tiers: the top 10 per cent and top 25 percent of the UK market) shows top end prices are up month on month. Regionally the top tiers are doing better too – seven of the ten UK regions saw price increases in July. Read the July Prime Index for the full details.

And find out more about the truth behind the property headlines on the Findaproperty.com blog.

Today the ladies the press love to hate are charged with ‘destroying the village of Prestbury’ in Cheshire.

The once-flourishing High Street of this pretty, quintessential English village is now facing its demise, as the closure of the Post Office and local family butcher put yet another nail, disguised as a ‘to let’ sign, in the coffin.

It seems that the arrival of Rooney and Hargreaves, along with a clutch of other football stars (and their wags), is responsible. Attracted by the village’s rural charm and its proximity to Manchester United’s training ground, they are throwing up multi-million pound mansions, pricing out locals in the process, and then refusing to shop in the village, preferring New York, Manchester and Ocado deliveries instead.

Local councillor Bill Livesley says: “It’s very nice that they live in our area but we wish they would invest their good capital in the community… Young local people have been priced out of the area – children who’ve grown up here have to move out of Prestbury to be able to afford to buy a property.”

It’s true. The figures on our sister site, Findaproperty.com, show that the national average price for first-time buyer properties in July was £155,994, whereas in Prestbury you could expect to pay almost double, at £294,116.

And thanks to the my-mansion-is-bigger-than-your-mansion world of Premiership footballers, Prestbury now boasts the most expensive road in the north of England, where the average house price is £1.2 million.

Terribly common: London agent Marsh & Parsons is offering downloadable walking tours of Clapham, Battersea and Balham

Full marks to London estate agent Marsh & Parsons, which is offering downloadable walking tours of three London postcodes, each an hour long offering insights and directions to local attractions and historic sites and, one thing we particularly like, downloadale photos from times past for walkers to compare today’s modern world against.

Also, Marsh and Parsons has arranged for free or reduced-costs treats for walkers along the way in local cafés, restaurants and shops.

As a further inducement, the company is offering a gift to anyone who downloads the tour (the minor catch being you’ve got to to your local branch to claim it) as well as the chance to win a picnic for ten people.

The tours,which Marsh & Parsons says are designed to appeal to families, house-hunters wanting to get to know an area better or simply those interested in where they live, wind around SW London covering Balham, Clapham Old Town and Battersea.

One famous SW London site the Balham tour visits is Du Cane Court, a huge 1930s mansion block on Tooting Broadway that, its downloadable tour points out, has been used as a film location for the Agatha Christie’s Poirot films. But the PrimeLocation Blog would like to add to this – the building is also home to curmudgeonly comic and longstanding Balham resident Arthur (or Arfur) Smith. Also, during WW2 the German army planned to use the building as their UK headquarters following an invasion.

The tours will be available online to download from the Marsh & Parsons website until the end of this month (July 2010).

From oranges and lemons to olives, grapes, figs, and even pineapples, it really is possible to produce a crop (no promises how bountiful, however) of these sun-loving superfoods with a little due care and attention, and admittedly, rather a lot of hard work (think hot beds of manure and steam-manipulated temperatures…).

However, if you’d prefer someone else to have done the hard work for you, go for one that was made earlier. We’ve got a number of properties on Primelocation.com that come with a ready-made exotic fruit garden, orchard or grove. Here are some of our favourites:

Southmoor, Oxfordshire
£2.5 million

This country house means business. Not content with the 5,500 sq ft, computer controlled greenhouse, it also boasts a fruit garden producing figs, peaches and plums.

Torquay, South Devon
£1.15 million

Live in Devon but pretend you’re in Greece, with an olive tree courtyard, deck and uninterrupted sea views.

Lane End, Buckinghamshire
£2.5 million

Follow the sweeping drive of this converted corn barn round to the garden, where olive trees mingle with an avenue of beech, a large pond and a timber deck.

Lamberhurst, Kent
£1.2 million

Situated within a vineyard, you should never be short of grapes here. And if you want to branch out to other fruits, there’s plenty of room – this place comes with five acres.

Villandry
They say: “Creative, indulgent hampers brimming with glorious, carefully sourced luxury foods”. We say: “Yes, please”. Great Portland Street’s foodie institution has three hampers to choose from, filled with all sorts of goodies from small, artisan English, French and Italian producers. The bad news is they are only available in London, but with the capital’s abundance of parks, you won’t be short of picnic destinations to enjoy them in. And you get to keep the cool bag too.

Forman and Field
The mail order fine food company has a number of hampers to choose from, but our favourite is the Top Pick Hamper. It doesn’t come cheap, at £119 for two, but any hamper described as a ‘cornucopia of mouthwatering delights’ is worthy of such a price tag. Inside the wicker hamper, you’ll find soused red onion salad, fillet of Scotch beef and Chapel Down brut rose, amongst other things.

Fortnum and Mason
The original and also one of the best. Fortnum and Mason also offer numerous hampers, including three summer ones, or you can make your own. We like the Basket of England (think cheeses, preserves, chocolates and other delicacies), and the simple but sweet Piccadilly, which is full of cream tea delights.

It is pretty remarkable that, since Saxon times, the house has passed from generation to generation in an almost unbroken line. So doesn’t it seem sad to you that it’s now on offer to the highest bidder?

The current incumbent, Nick Stirling, married in to Shakenhurst Hall – his wife Amanda grew up there and inherited the house after her father’s death in 2007. However, within a year, Amanda died of cancer. The estate passed into a trust for their children – most of which was earmarked for their son Rowland, not so much for their daughter Phoebe (who’d be a girl in the world of the landed gentry?) – but now the children, being at university/on a gap year and without the required funds to run a country estate – have had to put it up for sale.

What has got under my skin with this story is that this country pile is so much more than a pretty pile of bricks. Home might be where the heart is for most people, but in this case, hundreds of years of family history will also go with the sale, not to mention Amanda’s grave, which is in the estate’s grounds. How would you put a price on that (although, of course, they have, and it’s offers over £12 million only, please).

Read the whole story on the Mail Online – the history of this place is really quite fascinating and involves everyone from William the Conqueror to Michael Heseltine and, strangely, even Dominic West of the Wire fame. And if you fancy making a bid on the place yourself, check out its listing on Primelocation.com.

TV presenter Kevin McCloud. Will his Grand Designs show soon have a rival over on the BBC?

But not so at the BBC, where producers are looking for property speculators prepared to invest their time (but not their money) in a project to be featured in a new TV series.

It will be similar to Channel 4′s Grand Designs but, rather than focussing on the emotional and architectural stresses and strains of building a dream home, will challenge would-be property developers to make theirs the most profitable property project of the six to feature on the programme.

The winning team get to keep theirs and reap the profits but the other developments will be sold off and the money kept by the show’s backer, an unnamed ‘property guru’.

So if you think building or converting a property is one way to make a small fortune and you’re prepared to have a camera crew follow your every move then get in contact with our friends at UK Land Agent, who are helping the BBC scour the land for tomorrow’s next property prog stars.