Without further ado, here’s a summary of all the other players who will be suiting up for the M’s down in Arizona, organized by how likely they are to make the team.

All but official:

Pitchers: Kevin Millwood, Hisashi Iwakuma

I can’t imagine Millwood signing here if he didn’t have the impression that he was going to get every opportunity to head north as the fifth starter. Unless he all of the sudden can’t hit eighty on the gun, he’s in. Iwakuma is listed here because of my dopey parameters for this post.

Competing for a spot: 

Pitchers: Aaron Heilman, Josh Kinney, Stephon Pryor, Forrest Snow, Phil Valiquette, Danny Hultzen

Infielders: Carlos Guillen, Luis Rodriguez, Munenori Kawasaki

Of this group, one of the first five will probably make the squad as a middle reliever. Heilman and Kinney have major league experience, while Pryor and Snow are both intriguing prospects fresh off a tour in the Arizona Fall League. Pryor throws hard and has been closing in the minors; he probably has the most long term upside of this group. Valiquette was claimed off waivers this off-season, and while he is more fringy than the other four, he is a lefty who throws ninety-nine miles per hour. Those don’t exactly grow on trees.

Guillen could conceivably start at third base if the organization doesn’t want to run with Kyle Seager out of the blocks. Otherwise, one of he, Rodriguez, or Kawasaki will likely break camp as the backup infielder. Millwood’s signing lessens the chance that Hultzen will pull off the rare college-to-majors jump.

Longshots:

Pitchers:

Matt Fox, Steve Garrison, Sean Henn, Jeff Marquez, Scott Patterson, Oliver Perez, Erasmo Ramirez, Lucas Luetge

Outfielders:

Darren Ford, Vinnie Catricala

Garrison, Henn and Luetge are all lefties that had an outside but realistic chance to make the team before George Sherrill signed a contract. Now, they’re mostly interchangeable pieces of Lookout Landing’s famous pile. Henn throws fairly hard and gets some ground balls. Luetge struck out a batter per inning in double-A last year, but he is twenty-four, and that’s a little old for the league. He is a rule five pick, however, so if the club likes him, they could find a spot on the roster for him.

I’m not sure if Oliver Perez is in camp to push some of the young starters or if he’s willing to possibly consider pitching out of the bullpen. If he wants to take a crack at relieving, there have been crazier reclamation projects that have panned out.

Patterson is unlikely to make the team, but he’s kind of a sleeper of mine. He’s just a two pitch righty without overwhelming stuff, but he posted a cool 2.44 FIP in Tacoma last year and he settled in as the Rainiers closer as they played out the string.

Ford could conceivably make the team as the fifth outfielder; he’s the obvious pinch runner, defensive oriented candidate if the M’s want to send Michael Saunders back to Tacoma. Catricala probably won’t appear in the big leagues until later this year or 2013. He tore through double A after a mid-season promotion and rocketed up prospect lists, thanks to a .347/.420/.632 line in sixty games.

No chance:

Pitchers: Jarret Grube, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Yoervis Medina

Catchers: Ralph Henriquez, Guillermo Quiroz, Jesus Sucre

Infielders: Nick Franklin, Francisco Martinez, Carlos Triunfel

Outfielders: Luis Jimenez, Johermyn Chavez, Chih-Hsien Chiang

Paxton, Walker, Franklin, Martinez, Triunfel, Chavez, and Chiang are here for the experience. All of them are talented but are various years away from realistically competing to make the club. Grube (30) and Jimenez (29) are organizational soldiers that have steadily risen through the minor league ranks over the years. I’m rooting for them to get a cup of coffee somewhere before they have to hang ‘em up, but I just can’t see a place for them on this team right now. Henriquez, Quiroz, and Sucre are in camp to catch bullpens; with five catchers ahead of them on the forty-man roster, they’re buried on the depth chart.

Baseball. We’ve almost made it to you.

The Washington Nationals have reached an agreement on a one-year deal with free agent pitcher Edwin Jackson, who had also been targeted by the Boston Red Sox.

From the looks of it, the Mariners are done with their meaningful offseason transactions.  With Jackson off the market, the M’s no longer have the option to sign a great major league pitcher for a reasonable price for a long time.  I know, it feels odd to call Edwin Jackson a great pitcher, but the righty has been worth at least 3.6 WAR the last three seasons, and now he’ll slot into a rotation that already includes Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg.

Of course, at FanFest Jack Zduriencik hinted that Seattle’s current roster was pretty much set, so it’s highly probable that the team was never interested in Jackson (or Roy Oswalt for that matter) in the first place.  That does not mean, however, that signing either of the two would not have benefited the team.  In fact, signing Jackson to a one-year deal would have given the Mariners the rotation depth to keep from rushing their talented young pitchers in the high minors.

And so ends (probably) the most disappointing Mariners offseason in recent memory.  I can’t believe I’m saying this, but spring training can’t come soon enough.

Carlos Guillen has not given Mariner fans much to smile about over the years.  He was part of the trade that sent Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros in 1997.  Sad for 9-year-old me.  He played through tuberculosis in 2001.  Sad for him and his teammates.  Former GM Bill Bavasi set the tone for his reign of terror by dealing him to the Detroit Tigers for a minor league utility player and a Major League utility player.  More sadness.  Guillen went on to be a three-time All-Star with the Tigers.  Most sadness.

But at least there was this.

Now he’s back as a 36-year-old who has seen a number of injuries limit him to a year’s worth of big league action since 2009.

But while Guillen was part of one of the greatest teams in baseball history as a Mariner, I somehow doubt his return to the Northwest was fueled by nostalgia.  It was probably fueled by the Mariners’ third base depth chart.

Kyle Seager
Chone Figgins
Alex Liddi
Munenori Kawasaki (NRI)
Luis Rodriguez (NRI)
Vinnie Catricala (NRI)
Carlos Triunfel

It’s been a while since Guillen has been healthy and effective, but this sorry bunch could leave plenty of room for him to rack up as many starts at third base as his body will allow.  Any slips from Seager, Figgins and Liddi and viola– he’s in.

Or we could go the whole season without seeing Guillen as a Mariner.  In the end, this isn’t any sort of a game-changer for Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners, but until a better solution is unearthed, all depth is good depth at the Mariners’ weakest position.

Welcome back, Carlos.  Best of luck to you.

January 2012 has been one of the busiest months of my life outside of the blog, which should explain why I’ve only managed one lamesauce post since Christmas.  Hopefully I’ll be able to obtain some balance here shortly, but I can’t be too worried about it as the rest of the PBNW crew has been putting out some good content lately.

But while I haven’t managed to write in awhile, I am happy to let you know that there is some big behind the scenes work going on with the goal of unveiling a completely overhauled and redesigned PBNW this spring.  With that in mind, I’d like to ask you, loyal reader, what you want out of a baseball blog, and specifically this baseball blog.

Content is first and foremost, but what other amenities and features would you like to see here? What are we missing?  What are all baseball blogs missing?

This site is for you, so I’d love to see some discussion in the comments.  Alternatively, feel free to contact me directly.

Thanks for reading,

Jon

Jack Zdurincik frequently mentions the need to build a “foundation” – a strong farm system and a core of young players from which a championship team can be built. In my judgment, the “foundation-building” is reaching the point of diminishing returns. Seattle possesses at least nine plausible starting pitchers that could be ready by mid-2012 (Hernandez, Vargas, Beavan, Iwakuma, Furbush, Noesi, Hultzen, Paxton, Ramirez), seven of which are younger than 26. By 2013, the Mariners could have seven major league ready young infielders (Smoak, Ackley, Franklin, Seager, Martinez, Liddi, Truinfel, Catricala, and maybe Brad Miller later in the year), and while they may be weaker in the outfield, there are plenty of options with some major league potential. The lower levels of the Mariners minor league system are strong, and the next draft will augment these assets.

Seattle is poised to mature into an average or better team, even without any substantial additions. Just for good measure, the Mariners will be extremely well positioned to make substantial additions, given the strength of the lower levels of the organization, the reduction in payroll this off season, and the money freed by a smaller Ichiro contract (or departure). Even if the Mariners aren’t slated for 85 wins in 2013, the days of .200 averages are over. The Mariners will have the resources and depth necessary to ensure that each position is filled by a major league caliber player.

This accordingly narrows the Mariners’ options on the pitching side of the free agent market.  With Jeff Francis off the market, we can expect the M’s to either ink Edwin Jackson to a multi-year deal or to stand pat with their current crop of starters.  At this point, though, they’re probably going to do nothing.  With two hotshot young lefties on the fast track to the majors, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for this team to block a rotation spot for the next four years.  The organization clearly believes that Danny Hultzen and James Paxton can be successful major league pitchers, so the team’s current set of priorities dictate that the M’s will probably target a third baseman rather than a pitcher.

Edit: Sources also indicate that if the deal with St. Louis falls through, Oswalt could be headed for Texas.

I would not have been comfortable with the Mariners giving Fielder a similar deal.  Fielder is guaranteed ~23 million per season until 2020, at which point he’ll be 37 years old.  There’s a chance that Prince craters after the first few years of the deal, and considering his weight and his father’s career arc, that probability is a lot greater than Tigers fans might like.

Since the M’s have not signed Fielder, they still have ~16 million dollars to add to the 2012 payroll.  I would guess that the team pursues a starting pitcher to patch the hole created by Pineda’s departure from the rotation.  If Danny Hultzen and James Paxton are ready for the majors sooner than the Mariners expect, the M’s can always jettison Jason Vargas or Kevin Millwood.

In any case, not signing Fielder doesn’t create any problems for the M’s.  If anything, the M’s just avoided a huge problem.

This confirms what I theorized last week.  Prince Fielder will probably be a Washington National in 2012, and he probably won’t be a Texas Ranger.  I’m happy to hear this.

Rosenthal says nothing about the M’s, though.  The intrigue continues.

Millwood is 37 years old and right-handed.  He’s been a solid pitcher over the course of his career, hitting 3.3 WAR as recently as 2008 (which at this point isn’t very recent at all), and he pitched well for the Rockies in 9 starts last season.  Millwood’s 6.0 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, and 42.2 groundball percentage last year are nothing to scoff at.  The Mariners could certainly do worse, as they’re only looking for someone to hold Danny Hultzen’s rotation spot until he’s ready for the bigs.  And if Millwood pitches like he did last season, you won’t see me complaining.

If this is true, and the Mariners have actually signed Millwood, then I’ll be mildly surprised if they sign Edwin Jackson as well.  Roy Oswalt, however, remains a distinct possibility, as he’s likely to accept a one-year deal in the hopes of being dealt to a contending team at the trade deadline.

The vast majority of teams have an issue that precludes them from seriously chasing after Fielder. The Mets’ team ownership is downsizing payroll. The Dodgers seem reticent to guarantee big money to anyone this offseason, which is not surprising considering their unfortunate management situation. The Rays got Carlos Pena, the Reds have Joey Votto, and so on and so forth.  In my mind, there are only six teams that have a legitimate shot to sign Prince. (more…)

NRI = non-roster invitee.

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Matt Fox, Jarrett Grube and Jeff Marquez, RHSPs – Marquez is probably a little better than the other two, but these guys are basically dime a dozen right-handed starters who do what they can to put the ball in the strikezone while hoping the defense holds up their end of the bargain.  A long relief/swingman role might be the best case scenario for the trio, though middle relief and, with a ton of luck, the No. 5 spot in the rotation could be within the realm of possibility.  These types of pitchers are plenty useful when things are going well for them.   Think David Pauley, Chris Jakubauskas, etc.

Steve Garrison, LHSP –  Garrison, a former top 10 prospect in the San Diego Padres organization, throws strikes and mixes his pitches but lacks the stuff to neutralize advanced hitters on a regular basis.  He’s had trouble getting AA and AAA hitters out over the past two seasons and probably doesn’t have much hope for making the big league team.  Garrison figures to be in the emergency starter mix with Tacoma.  A new Chris Seddon, let’s say.

Oliver Perez, LHSP – Perez you know from one good season with the Pirates, one OK season with the Mets, one Sandy Koufax comparison from Scott Boras, one incredibly ill-fated $36 million contract from the Mets, and countless meltdowns.  I’ve got to think the Mariners will try him primarily as a reliever. (Edit: confirmed.)  Maybe they’ll catch lightning in a bottle and wind up with a shutdown second lefty to join George Sherrill, but I don’t really like his chances much more than the other lefties competing for a ‘pen job.  As a starter… blech.  Let’s cross that bridge if we come to it.

Josh Kinney and Scott Patterson, RHRPs - A pair of 32 year old journeyman relievers who got their starts in independent ball and have had long track records of minor league success out of the bullpen.  Both have high strikeout rates and reasonable walk rates, but neither have gotten much of a shot in The Show.  Kinney had some success in his 17.2 big league innings with the White Sox last season, striking out 20 against 7 walks, although he got knocked around a bit after throwing 3 shutout innings and 6 strikeouts in his debut.  The duo will compete for middle relief jobs but, lacking great stuff, will most likely get most of their work with Tacoma.  (more…)

I don’t have much else to say about this, so here’s a picture of Carlos Peguero doing what he does best:

• A lot of people thought outfielder Seth Smith was on the M’s radar as a possible trade target, but he’s just been snatched up by the Oakland A’s in exchange for Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman.  (For the record, I think the A’s won this deal by a lot.) I’m not exactly crushed by this news, but I am slightly deflated. Smith can flat-out hit, and his defensive ability is no worse than average; I would have preferred him over Trayvon Robinson as the Mariners’ fourth outfielder.
• To make matters worse – and by worse I mean pretty much the same – Jamie Moyer has apparently been offered a minor-league contract by the Rockies. If Moyer accepts, it won’t really make a difference to the M’s.  It would be fun to watch Jamie Moyer pitch in Safeco as the M’s fifth starter, but considering the recent acquisition of Hector Noesi and how close Danny Hultzen is to the majors, signing Moyer doesn’t make any sense for the Mariners. I would be very surprised if the Mariners went after another back-end starter at this point.
• Buster Olney reported a couple of days ago that Edwin Jackson’s asking price has “come down significantly.”  Jackson initially wanted something like 15-16 million dollars a year over five seasons, which of course he was never going to get.   (more…)

Some teams can overcome an unsavory offense with stellar pitching and defense and contend for a playoff spot.  Unfortunately, the Mariners have not performed at an elite enough level on the mound and in the field to make up for their woes in the batter’s box.  The front office came to the conclusion that the team needed a hitter, so the M’s traded hard-throwing RHP Michael Pineda to the Yankees for slugging C/DH/1B Jesus Montero.

Yeah, the Mariners have a critical deficiency in hitting talent at the major league level. The M’s also, however, currently have a wealth (if not a surplus) of pitching talent in the minors. To acquire hitting talent, it makes sense for the M’s to trade something they already have a lot of – pitching talent. The organization’s abundance of young, quality starting pitchers increases the probability that one of them will pan out and the Mariners will end up with a solid #2 pitcher to slot behind Felix in the rotation for years to come.   (more…)

First, in principle, the Mariners were wise to flip a young pitcher for a young hitter of equal or greater caliber. Long story short: we have enough pitching that the drop off between a Mariner starter and their replacement is considerably less than that between a Mariner hitter and their replacement.

Second, in practice, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that Montero is a young hitter of equal or greater caliber to Pineda.

Look, Pineda was great. He was one of our few bright spots over the last few years. But I’m not sure that Pineda will be better than a #2 starter. First, Pineda doesn’t have a third pitch, let alone fourth, and that really hurts, especially when it comes to left handed hitters. Second, he’s quite dependent on plus plus fastball velocity, and there’s no guarantee that he holds it over the medium run, even if he doesn’t get injured. If you don’t believe me, check out Felix’s declining fastball velocity over the last few years. Now, Pineda could become a #1 starter given his age, uncanny fastball control, and room for improvement, but I would have liked to see more improvement in his change up.

I look at it like this: if you believe that Pineda is already an occasional All Star, with the potential to contend for a Cy Young (if everything goes right), then I think we would want a hitter who we can *expect* to become an occasional All Star, with the potential to contend for an MVP.

I believe Montero is such a player. Even his (relative) detractors, like David Cameron, compare him to Carlos Lee, a career .286/.339/.491 hitter. Now, if Montero does that at DH, that might make him an All Star once in a career year. But Montero’s advocates have a much more ambitious vision of his potential. Both tonight and in the past, I have read comparisons to Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Delgado. Now, even if Montero doesn’t put up a career .929 or .950 OPS, that’s the type of hitter who will flirt with an MVP in a career year. If Montero matches those formidable hitters, then we really are talking about an MVP caliber player. I don’t pretend to know whether Montero is a true talent .840 OPS or .940 OPS hitter. From a stats perspective, his last two minor league seasons have been a little short of what one might expect from the latter. That said, minor league stats aren’t perfect, and there’s a reason (besides false hopes of catching) why he’s been ranked at times as the best pure hitting prospect in the minor leagues.   (more…)

What is important is that the Mariners just traded their second best pitcher for a hitting prospect that is instantly the best power threat on the team and probably the most talented hitter in the organization. While much of Montero’s allure is tied up in his potential, he was brilliant in limited at-bats during his brief major league stint last season. He’s also major league ready: he spent 2011 in Triple-A simply because the Yankees didn’t have a place to play him regularly. No matter how anyone feels about who won the trade, there isn’t much doubt that Montero can really hit. Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus’ minor league maven rated him the number one prospect in the Yankees system last year and scouts universally praise his ability to hit for average as well as power.  (more…)

montero is traded for pineda

Interesting.  Apparently more players are changing sides than just the two.  We’ll keep you updated.

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Edit: Looks like the M’s have given up starting pitcher Jose Campos in the deal as well, and they’ll be receiving RHP Hector Noesi along with Montero.

With this deal, the Mariners are essentially out of the Prince Fielder sweepstakes.   Hooray!

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Edit: Jason Churchill reports:

1 east coast source tells me nova may be in the deal, and that this doesn’t necessarily mean the mariners are out on prince fielder

If Nova’s in the deal, this tips the scale in favor of the M’s.  Obviously, Nova is no Pineda, but he’s young and get a lot of groundballs and is under team control for awhile.

First, I should acknowledge that there are reasons to be optimistic about Wells in 2012. Wells was the oldest and most developed of the collection of prospects that roamed the M’s outfield last season. Wells hit .237/.317/.442 last season, and he managed a .431 slugging percentage after the trade, no small feat for a right hander playing in Safeco. He also played well in the outfield and even looked comfortable in his limited time as a center fielder. (more…)

dominated hitters with his 88-92 deceptive Fastball, as well as showing a quality Curveball and Change-up. He projects to be a serviceable power arm lefty out of the pen. If he can develop constancy with his breaking pitches Asencio should move quickly through the Mariners system.

To be completely honest, I had no idea who Oliver Asencio was before I read this article, but the M’s could certainly do worse than signing a left-handed reliever with plus height and three pitches.

Aaron Heilman has reached agreement with the #Mariners on minor league deal with an invite to big league camp.

You might remember Aaron Heilman from his first turn as a Mariner, when he was acquired in the JJ Putz megadeal and shortly thereafter dealt for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson.  See that picture on the right?  That’s from three years ago!

Heilman was inordinately unlucky with his HR/FB rate in 2011.  The league average tends to hover around 11-12 percent, and opposing hitters turned flyballs into dingers against the righty a whopping 20 percent of the time.  For reference, xFIP is basically FIP adjusted for luck on flyballs, and Heilman’s 2011 xFIP was more than a run and a half lower than his FIP.

I like Heilman as a bounce-back candidate.   (more…)