But there are things to like.

1. Chone Figgins, 3B
2. Dustin Ackley, 2B
3. Ichiro, RF
4. Jesus Montero, DH
5. Justin Smoak, 1B
6. Mike Carp, LF
7. Franklin Gutierrez, CF
8. Miguel Olivo, C
9. Brendan Ryan, SS

An optimist looks at the Mariners lineup and sees a solid group overall, but I’m not sure the staunchest optimist can talk himself into seeing a rejuvenated Figgins.  He’ll be 34 years old this year.  34 year old baseball players aren’t exactly known for reverting to career norms after consecutive disastrous seasons.  We’re all rooting for Figgins to end the 2012 season with a Comeback Player of the Year award, but how many really expect him to remain in the lineup through June?  It’s hard to defend Wedge’s decision to bat Figgins leadoff.

But further down, there are reasons for hope.

He’s into his late 30s, but few are ballsy enough to doubt Ichiro.  The man is unpredictable.  His latest surprise is showing up to camp with a new batting stance, seen here in a video shot by Times beat writer Larry Stone.  The change, Stone writes, is permanent, an adjustment made to try and keep another 2011 from happening.  Stone’s video shows Ichiro looking about as conventional as you’ll ever seen him in the box, which is far more interesting to me than his move in the lineup.

For years we’ve heard the sentiment that Ichiro could be a successful power hitter if he wanted or needed to be and now we might finally get some validation.  Ichiro’s batting practice displays are stuff of legend and he flashed a textbook power swing when he got out in front of pitches on the inner half in past seasons, but it will be interesting to see if and how his offensive game changes due to the wider base and an intent to drive the ball more often as the No. 3 hitter.  Of course, it’s important not to let our imaginations run wild.  A tweaked batting stance does not signal a change in philosophy.  Only time will tell.  Suddenly I’m a little more excited for the first televised Cactus League contest.

The optimist sees a renaissance for Ichiro and buys into the idea that Smoak just had too many unusual obstacles to overcome in 2011.  Ackley and Montero haven’t proven themselves but neither have they given fans any real reason to doubt them.  It’s not impossible to see a pretty good top half of the lineup, Figgins by damned.

The question marks at the six and seven spots of the above mock lineup are as big as any one through nine.  Carp had a great run in 2011 but has many adjustments to make.  The aggressive approach that put him back on the map could also ruin him if he doesn’t get his strikeouts under control and/or his walk rate up.  Casper Wells will battle him for playing time but has similar upside and downside.  Gutierrez is purportedly as healthy as he’s been in a couple years, but I feel like we’ve heard that before.  If his stomach and subsequent strength and energy issues are truly in the rear view it will be exciting to see what kind of hitter he will be.

Ichiro could be great in his new role.  Ackley, Montero and Smoak could become a dynamic and feared threesome.  Carp could be the real deal and Guti could be healthy.  Maybe Figgins even goes from being a joke of a big leaguer to residing within shouting distance of acceptable.  I’ve learned over the past few years not to count on that many things going right for the Mariners, but it wouldn’t be out of line to think that this lineup can create a nice buffer between them and the embarrassments we’ve seen the last two seasons.

Of course there is plenty of downside to this lineup, but it’s still February.  Hope!

It didn’t look like Smoak had been adversely affected by his father’s passing.  We saw Smoak smiling and joking around with teammates in the dugout after he returned from the bereavement list.  We saw him fist-pumping and yelling after he hit that two-out, three-run homer in the eighth inning against the Royals in late May.  We saw Smoak exhibit all the normal symptoms of a happy, normal 24-year-old male, and we got upset with him when his offensive production decreased remarkably over the course of the season.  But more so than his mediocre batting averages on balls in play in May and June, Smoak’s family situation is probably the biggest reason why his season went awry.

Shown below are Smoak’s monthly stats:

Smoak’s phenomenal April was clearly derailed.  However, his father’s death can’t explain away his awful July.  Young and old players alike fall into deep slumps from time to time, and it would have been unreasonable to expect otherwise from a kid in his first full big league season.

To his credit, Smoak returned from the injury he sustained in August in good form, hitting .301 (on the strength of an inflated BABIP) in September.  All reports indicated that he was having no lingering issues with his thumb, nor with his previously fractured nose, so it’s highly unlikely either will be an issue this season.

Which version of Justin Smoak should we expect to see in 2012?  I’d say the one we saw in the first two months of the season.  A .250/.350/.450 line is a reasonable expectation for someone with Smoak’s raw power and plate awareness, even when he’ll be playing half his games in Safeco.  Think of it this way – in a massively disappointing season, Smoak put up a .719 OPS.  This kid can hit, and he will.

Mariners manager Eric Wedge just confirmed that Chone Figgins will see the bulk of his time at third base this spring and once the season begins. Figgins told me this morning that the team has already said he’ll be an everyday player in 2012, with the majority of time coming at third and also at other infield and maybe some outfield spots.

Figgins will start the season as an everyday player.  And while there have been no definitive on-record statements made on the matter, Baker also gets the strong impression that Figgins will be named the Mariners’ leadoff hitter at some point this week.

There has been a lot of talk about Figgins’ possible return to the leadoff spot where he enjoyed offensive success as a member of the Angels.  The debate began when manager Eric Wedge strongly hinted that he would be dropping Ichiro down from the leadoff spot to second or third in the lineup and Figgins being quoted saying that the supposed change of approach between hitting leadoff and second has been causing him fits.  Put two and two together and… *sigh*

It just goes to show how hard offense has been to come by for the Mariners.   On a decent team, moving Ichiro out of the leadoff spot after producing a .645 OPS in 2011 would mean moving him to the bottom third of the lineup.  Instead, he’s moving from one important lineup spot to a different, equally important lineup spot.  On a decent team, Figgins wouldn’t be in the lineup at all.  Instead, there is talk of batting him leadoff.

That’s not to say that it makes sense to bat Figgins leadoff.  Statistics don’t really back up Figgins’ claims that batting behind Ichiro has thrown him off.  While I don’t want to completely dismiss the idea that Figgins could just be lost in his mind, it seems more than likely that he’s just finished as a productive player.  Maybe he’s both.  Either way, if the Mariners think that Figgins would be better off hitting in front of Ichiro, why not bat Ichiro first and Figgins ninth?  Case closed.

Of course, it’s not the end of the world.  If it doesn’t work out, so what?  Figgins isn’t blocking any potential stars and Wedge is fully capable of changing his mind once he sees his plan in action.  And if by some miracle it works out– hooray!  Figgins as a solid contributor makes things easier.

This news means that Alex Liddi will almost certainly start the season with AAA Tacoma where he’ll reportedly see time at both third base and first base to help accommodate prospects Vinnie Catricala and Francisco Martinez.  Best I can tell, this leaves Kyle Seager battling Carlos Guillen for the 25th roster spot with the assumption that one of Munenori Kawasaki or Luis Rodriguez will make it based on their ability to play consistently quality defense shortstop.  (I have no idea if the Mariners share that assumption.)  Seager could play second base for Tacoma if he doesn’t make the cut.

Alex Rodriguez was a five-tool shortstop for the Seattle Mariners.  He could hit for average, having won the batting title in his first full season in the big leagues.  He could hit for power, averaging 42 home runs per 162 games between 1996 and 2000.  He could run, swiping 133 bases while being caught just 36 times during his time with Seattle.  He had a reputation as a good gloveman and was able to throw runners out at first base from deep in the hole.

Carlos Triunfel is not Alex Rodriguez, but when Baseball America wrote in their 2007 Prospect Handbook that he was a “potential five-tool shortstop,” Mariner fans hoped that the bonus baby fresh out of the Dominican Republic might be.  When Triunfel ascended all the way to high Class-A as a 17 year old despite missing part of the year with a broken hand, some of those Mariner fans began penciling him in for a Hall of Fame career.

The idea of “the next Alex Rodriguez” is pretty silly, of course, and Triunfel has fallen well short.  Baseball America’s annual writeups were never as rosy at that first one in 2007, bringing us to their most recent edition, which states: “Triunfel will likely end up as a utilityman who can play anywhere in the infield.”

That’s disappointing for the player who received the fourth highest dollar amount of his 2006 signing class.  I know his $1.3 million was the fourth highest because it was mentioned within the first couple sentences of Triunfel’s section in all six editions of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook spanning his career.  Early on it was used to show how far he was expected to go.  More recently it’s been used to show how far he’s fallen.

Maybe Triunfel has been a disappointment, but at very least he can be expected to contribute in some capacity.  According to this July 3, 2006 column by ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas, Triunfel was rated as the No. 8 “Hottest Prospect” of the signing period.  Let’s take a look back at how the others have fared in professional baseball.

1.) Jesus Montero, C – The top rated prospect received the second-highest signing bonus of the class. Montero, the Mariners’ big acquisition of this offseason, has yet to prove himself in the big leagues but is still known for the things that made him the top prospect of the signing period as a 16 year old– ability to hit to all fields, ability to hit to all fields with power, a strong throwing arm, a body probably not suited for catching.

2.) Engel Beltre, OF – Originally signed by the Red Sox before before being traded to the Rangers, Beltre is very athletic and known as a boom/bust type.  He’s a plus defender in center field but appears to be on the bust side of the spectrum offensively after slugging just .371 for his minor league career to date.  Baseball America ranked him as the fifth best prospect in a strong Rangers system coming into last season, but a terrible showing in his second go-round at AA caused him to fall completely out of their top 30 for this year.

3.) Angel Villalona, 3B – Recipient of the largest signing bonus of the signing class, Villalona’s career with the Giants was off to a fine start.  The first baseman was ranked as Baseball America’s No. 33 prospect heading into 2008 and No. 44 for 2009, higher rankings than Triunfel ever received.  Villalona then found himself in the middle of a murder investigation that kept him in the Dominican Republic for two years before charges were dropped.  Still on the Giant’s 40-man roster, Villalona is reportedly heading for Spring Training and will attempt to get his career on track.  The 21-year-old last played at high Class-A as an 18-year-old.

4.) Moises Tejeda, SS – Known professionally as Oscar Tejeda, the Red Sox second baseman has some intriguing offensive tools but has been held back by an overly aggressive approach that leads to few walks and lots of strikeouts.  Additionally, his defense is fringy at second base and there is some belief that he’ll have to move to the outfield, further hurting his value.  Baseball America ranked him No. 24 in a less than stellar Boston system for 2012.

5.) Larry Suarez, RHP – A big fastball is practically all you need to get the attention of Major League teams when you’re 16 or 17 years old.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Suarez hasn’t developed much to go along with his good heater.  Now a reliever, Suarez spent last season between Class-A, high Class-A and AA and appears to be a generic relief prospect going forward.

6.) Euclides Viloria, LHP – The Padres southpaw injured himself in winter ball after his first season in the professional ranks and continual setbacks have kept him from logging an inning in the minors since.

7.)  Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS – The third of three to receive a bigger bonus than Triunfel, many were surprised by the big dollar figure. Suspicions were validated in 2009 as a huge scandal began to unravel.  The short version: Jose Rijo, Special Assistant to then-GM Jim Bowden, was in cahoots with Gonzalez, who was discovered to be 23-year-old Carlos Alvarez.  Needless to say, Gonzalez Alvarez’s prospect status has been destroyed, although he still plays in the Nationals organization.

8.) Carlos Triunfel, SS

9.) Balbino Fuenmayor, 3B – Known for a polished offensive approach when he signed with the Blue Jays, Fuenmayor has failed to develop the power as hoped.  He’s also seen more time at first base than third base as a pro and has yet to graduate from Class-A.  Fuenmayor is a non-prospect at this point.

10.) Jason Smit, SS – The Aussie retired after the 2011 season.  The utility player had advanced as far as high Class-A, where he played eight games.

11.) Francisco Pena, C – The son of All-Star catcher Tony Pena and brother of the shortstop-turned-reliever of the same name, Francisco was known for his bat at the time of signing but has a career .234/.281/.328 slash line in the Mets organization.  He’s spent parts of the past three seasons in high Class-A.

Indeed, that Triunfel has a good shot at carving out a career as a 25th man is not too bad at all.  5 1/2 years later, only Montero has a clearly better outlook than Triunfel.  Maybe guys like Villalona and Beltre can turn it around and surpass Triunfel, but Triunfel has the same opportunity.

Triunfel will never live down being a bonus baby and a top prospect for the Mariners, but while we wish he could be more, it’s important to remember that he is a success.

Triunfel enters this season as Tacoma’s likely everyday shortstop in what figures to be his last chance to develop into a starting-caliber player.  Next year he’ll probably enter Spring Training as a contender for the role of utility infielder– sooner if injuries or other circumstances present the opportunity.

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Also check out: Carlos Triunfel’s Ascension, 8/8/11

Wilhelmsen’s Make or Break Year

With apologies to Steve Delabar and Alex Liddi, my favorite story from the 2011 Mariners remains the unlikely debut and success of Tom Wilhelmsen. For those unfamiliar with his career path, Wilhelmsen was Milwaukee’s seventh round pick back in 2002. He was a hard throwing starter fresh out of high school, and while his arm was as good as any in the system, Wilhelmsen readily admitted he wasn’t mentally prepared for the grind of minor league baseball. He pitched well in 2003, but following a couple positive tests for marijuana in the off-season, he was suspended for the 2004 campaign. He retired in 2005 and spent the next five years away from the game.

In 2009, Wilhelmsen decided to give baseball another shot. He worked himself back into playing shape and signed a deal with the independent Golden League’s Tucson Toros. After a handful of appearances with the Toros, the Mariners took a flier on Wilhelmsen (it is worth mentioning that Jack Zduriencik was Milwaukee’s scouting director when the Brewers selected Wilhelmsen.) He pitched well in his first full minor league season since 2003 (albeit against weak competition,) striking out seventy-three hitters in seventy-four innings while posting a 2.19 earned run average. He parlayed his minor league success into a spring training invite in 2011 and after a strong spring, Wilhelmsen became the 2011 season’s unlikeliest big leaguer.

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Once in Seattle, Wilhelmen looked like… well, like a bartender pitching in the major leagues. In his first stint with the big club, Wilhelmsen showed impressive velocity and pedestrian control. He struggled with his command, often falling behind in the count, and the result was a high ERA to go along with nine walks in eight appearances. Eric Wedge never used Wilhelmsen in high leverage situations and after working only sparingly, he returned to the minor leagues to prepare for a career as a starter.

Again, Wilhelmsen labored. He struggled to get deep into games and his overpowering stuff didn’t translate into dominating results, even against double A competition. In his final start, he lasted only two innings, allowing three long balls and eight runs. Somewhat surprisingly, he was recalled to Seattle soon after.

Strangely, this is when Wilhelmsen exploded. After two middling performances at the onset of his promotion, Wilhelmsen was as dominant as any reliever in baseball over the rest of the season. He pounded the strike zone and the combination of his blistering heater (average speed over ninety-five MPH) and a buckling curve ball produced unexpected results. Take a look:

Before August 20th: 14.1 innings, 6.28 ERA, 10 strikeouts, 12 walks, 1 HR, .298/.408/.368

After: 18.1 innings, 0.98 ERA, 20 strike outs, 1 walk, 1 HR, .129/.169/.210

I understand that we’re dealing with small sample sizes here. Even worse, we’re dealing with small sample sizes from a reliever (and I cherry picked an arbitrary end-point to boot.) Please do not take the above numbers as a suggestion that Wilhelmsen is undeniably awesome and past all his control problems, etc. They are simply meant to illustrate that when Wilhelmsen throws strikes, he can be a weapon out of the bullpen. Before that magic date, Wilhelmsen only threw strikes on 56.7% of his pitches. Afterwards, his strike percentage jumped to 63%, a figure slightly above league average. It’s a big if, but IF Wilhelmsen can throw strikes like he did at the end of last season, he has the potential to pitch at the back end of games for a long time.

The question moving forward is where Wilhelmsen fits in with the roster. With off-season additions Hong-Chih Kuo, Shawn Camp, and George Sherrill joining holdovers Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Chance Ruffin, and more in a competition for innings, it’s not clear what role Wilhelmsen will fill out of the bullpen. Of all the players on the forty man roster, his role may just be the most volatile. He clearly has the capacity to be a star reliever. He also has control problems in his recent history that suggest he may be destined for long relief, or even ticketed for a demotion. There are also still whispers that, particularly considering the limited mileage on his arm, the organization should consider trying him as a starter again.

Personally, I think I would keep him in the bullpen. His exploits at the end of last year were predicated upon success with two pitches (he was barely throwing his changeup at all) and it’s tough to succeed as a starter with such a limited arsenal. Whichever way the M’s brass wants to use him, though, this is a make or break season for the righty. On the basis of pure stuff, Wilhelmsen’s arm rivals any of the relievers in the entire system, and it’s not hard to envision him pitching in the late innings for years to come. On the other hand, the M’s are already overflowing with viable relief candidates and even more options loom on the horizon (Forest Snow, Stephen Pryor, etc.) If Wilhelmsen struggles with his control again, the organization may have a short leash with him.

Ultimately, 2012 sets the tone for Wilhelmsen’s career. His performance this year could cement his status as a member of the team or cause him to wind up in Triple-A. As a likable guy with a great backstory, everyone is rooting for him to have all the success in the world. If he does, the M’s can make him a part of their long term plan. Of course, that is a big if.

Cespedes signed a four-year deal worth $36 million.

There’s a lot to dislike about this deal on the surface (provided you’re a Mariners fan, that is.  If you’re an A’s fan, you’re probably pretty psyched about this acquisition.  Why are you even reading this site?).  The 5’10″, 190-pound outfielder is remarkably athletic, can hit for power, and is only 26 years old.  The age part of this particularly stings, since Cespedes is about to enter his (statistically speaking) prime as a member of the Oakland Athletics, and his contract will be up around the time the aging curve dictates he’ll begin to decline.

There are questions regarding Cespedes’ ability to make consistent contact, but the Cuban otherwise looks to be a well-rounded baseball player.  Even if he doesn’t end up hitting for a great average, Cespedes has the other four tools – baserunning ability, power, a strong arm, and purportedly good defense.

The possibility exists, of course, that Cespedes is unable to figure out major league pitching and ends being an average or below-average player.  It’s fruitless to speculate on this, because we’ll find out soon enough anyway, but I really think the Cuban will have a solid career in Oakland.  One 3- or 4-win player in the division won’t sink the Mariners, but the road to the AL West title just got a tiny bit more treacherous for Seattle.

With an early campaign kickoff against the Oakland A’s in Japan on March 28th, Seattle Mariner pitchers and catchers officially report to Spring Training today, a week ahead of other teams.  At last count, the Mariners have 35 pitchers in big league camp — 19 roster players and 16 non-roster invitees — fighting for five spots in the rotation and six or seven in the bullpen.

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When GM Jack Zduriencik sent Michael Pineda to the New York Yankees the prevailing rationale behind the trade was that the Mariners could afford to cash in on Pineda because of the team’s top flight pitching depth– Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker.  Given that no leg of the lauded tripod has logged an inning in the Major Leagues, there is risk, and none of them can be expected to fill Pineda’s shoes as the season gets underway.  In the mean time, Zduriencik is going to try and make up the difference with marginal improvements over the unit that closed out the 2011 season.

Behind Felix Hernandez the Mariners have Jason Vargas, who is more of a No. 4 starter but brings some stability (year to year more than start to start) and might yet have some upside to tap into.  You may recall that Jason Vargas added a twist and the intent to throw hard late in the year, resulting in an uptick in velocity across the board and some strong numbers to close out the season, bucking his two year trend of lost velocity and production through the dog days.  One minor story to watch this spring will be whether Vargas has kept these mechanical adjustments.  If so, hopefully the added velocity and deception will help him better survive his road starts.

Veterans Kevin Millwood and Hisashi Iwakuma figure to secure the next two rotation spots.  Millwood pitched much of the 2011 season in the minor leagues with the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees but admirably stuck with it at age 36 and eventually found his way to the Colorado Rockies for 9 starts down the stretch.  Millwood produced some of the best results he’s seen in a long while during that short stretch.  One of the ways he succeeded was by registering a walk rate far below anything he’s posted during his career, helping to cancel out a declining walk rate.  He also added a cutter to his repertoire, which could explain why he coaxed more swings at pitches outside of the strikezone than ever before.  Time will tell how much Millwood has left in the tank, but the Mariners could do far worse than to let Millwood anchor the back half of the rotation.

Iwakuma is a bit of an unknown for two reasons.  One, he’s coming over from Japan. MLB teams’ track record of knowing which Nippon Pro Baseball stars will succeed hasn’t been as good as you might think considering the level of play over there.  Two, he missed quite a bit of time last season nursing a shoulder injury.  Nevertheless, Iwakuma is about as good an NPB prospect as teams can hope to get and could be a solid contributor for the Mariners.  In Japan he threw an assortment of pitches for strikes, walked no one, kept the ball on the ground, and had an out pitch in his forkball.  Stateside… we shall see.

It’s possible that Millwood and Iwakuma could have their rotation spots taken by other pitchers, but most of the competition will focus on the No. 5 slot.  I have second year pitchers Hector Noesi, acquired in the Pineda-Montero trade, and Charlie Furbush as the early frontrunners.  (Recommended reading: USSM on Noesi, LL on Furbush.)  Blake Beavan, who started out very strong as a rookie last season before fading, will have to prove that he can get a few more strikeouts and groundballs to challenge. Would-be rookies Forrest Snow and Erasmo Ramirez have enough stuff and command to get noticed, but as non-roster players could see a numbers crunch minimize a good showing. Expect to see them later in the year if injuries or trades take a bite out of the rotation.

The fan favorite for the spot is the No. 2 pick of the 2011 draft, the very polished (relative to his pro experience) Danny Hultzen.  The Mariners insisted last year that Hultzen would get a shot to make the club out of Spring Training, but they might be wise to secure another year of service time from the Scott Boras client by letting him get established with AAA Tacoma for a couple months.  Hultzen may very well be one of the Mariners’ five best starting pitchers, but his professional experience is limited to the Arizona Fall League, so letting him get some high minors experience wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

This group of starters should be formidable, especially at home, but pale in comparison to the rotation that opened the 2011 season: Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Doug Fister, Jason Vargas, Michael Pineda.  Still, the 2012 rotation could match much if not all of the total production with a better than average year from Iwakuma and a strong partial season from Hultzen.

That said, the rotation could again transform between April and September.  Millwood and Iwakuma could be used as trade chips in July, and there will be plenty of good young players trying to force their way in throughout the season.

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The first Felix Day of 2012 is just 6 ½ weeks away.  What do we have to do to get a King’s Court traveling contingent to Tokyo?

Baseball season!

Here is a quick roundup of the Mariner offseason.

Greg Halman, 1987-2011

For the second straight offseason we’ve seen a member of the Mariner family taken from this earth far too soon. Greg Halman was stabbed to death in his native Netherlands this past November. He was 24.

Notable Outgoing Mariners

• INF Adam Kennedy (free agency, Dodgers)
• DH Wily Mo Pena (free agency, Japan)
• RHRP Jamey Wright (free agency, Dodgers)
• C Josh Bard (free agency, Dodgers)
• RHRP David Aardsma (non-tendered, unsigned)
• RHRP Jeff Gray (waivers, Twins)
• RHRP Josh Lueke (trade, Rays)
• RHRP Dan Cortes (non-tendered, Nationals)
• RHSP Michael Pineda (trade, Yankees)
• RHSP Jose Campos (trade, Yankees)

Notable Incoming Mariners

• C John Jaso (trade, Rays)
• SS Munenori Kawasaki (minor league free agency)
• LHRP George Sherrill (free agency)
• RHSP Hisashi Iwakuma (free agency)
• RHRP Aaron Heilman (minor league free agency)
• C/DH Jesus Montero (trade, Yankees)
• RHSP Hector Noesi (trade, Yankees)
• RHSP Kevin Millwood (minor league free agency)
• 3B/DH Carlos Guillen (minor league free agency)
• LHRP Hong-Chih Kuo (free agency)
• RHRP Shawn Camp (free agency)
• Full list of non-roster invitees

The big trade

GM Jack Zduriencik’s biggest move of the offseason to date was his trade of Michael Pineda and Jose Campos to the Yankees for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi.

• Brendan: Pineda, Campos traded for Montero & Noesi
• Nate: It’s A Good Deal (IMHO)
• Taylor: Understanding the Michael Pineda trade
• Nate: Montero > Grandal+Alonso

Miscellaneous news

• A new CBA means significant changes to baseball
• Edgar Martinez’s Hall of Fame chances didn’t improve much if at all
• The Houston Astros are set to join the AL West in 2013

Depth chart

Please don’t get too worked up over this.  The point is to get a rough idea of the team as of right now, not to quibble over playing time and whatnot.  Spring Training will sort it all out.

C: Miguel Olivo, John Jaso, Jesus Montero
1B: Justin Smoak, Mike Carp, Carlos Guillen
2B: Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager, Chone Figgins
3B: Kyle Seager, Carlos Guillen, Chone Figgins
SS: Brendan Ryan, Munenori Kawasaki, Luis Rodriguez
LF: Mike Carp, Casper Wells, Chone Figgins
CF: Franklin Gutierrez, Casper Wells, Darren Ford
RF: Ichiro Suzuki, Casper Wells, Chone Figgins
DH: Jesus Montero, Mike Carp, Carlos Guillen

SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Jason Vargas
SP: Hisashi Iwakuma
SP: Kevin Millwood
SP: Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan, Danny Hultzen, Charlie Furbush

CL: Brandon League
SU: Tom Wilhelmsen
SU: George Sherrill
MR: Hong-Chih Kuo
MR: Shawn Camp
MR: Shawn Kelley, Chance Ruffin, Aaron Heilman, et al.
LR: See SP #5

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Photo credit: Forrest Snow, 2011

Gimenez has had an odd few months considering that this is the second time the Mariners have cut him from the 40-man roster since the end of last season.  While his versatility is attractive, Gimenez was facing an uphill battle given the acquisitions of John Jaso and Jesus Montero.  The 29-year-old had logged 267 big league at bats for a slash line of .171/.279/.272.  Even in Tacoma he’d have a hard time getting playing time with Adam Moore around.  (Adam Moore is still around.)

As with Gimenez, this isn’t Wilson’s first rodeo.  Wilson has been around the Mariners for over a decade now and has always put up intriguing numbers in the minors but only has eight Major League games to show for it.  I won’t blame him one bit if he decides to pack it up and try his luck elsewhere, but I will be a little bummed if he leaves.  He’s been one of my pet projects since I started blogging — how can you not love a should-be outside linebacker lumbering around the outfield? – but Jeff’s take pretty much sums it up:

If Wilson gets claimed, it’ll be because some front office doesn’t believe in quad-A hitters. Last year in Tacoma he put up a .973 OPS. If Wilson doesn’t get claimed, it’ll be because last year in Tacoma Carlos Peguero put up a .923 OPS, and Michael Saunders put up an .864 OPS, and Ryan Langerhans put up a 1.000 OPS. Out of context, wow, Mike Wilson! In context, oh, hey, Mike Wilson. I would personally like to see what Wilson could do with 500 at bats, but Major League Baseball isn’t an experiment over which I have complete control. I wanted much more to see what Wily Mo Pena could do with 500 at bats and that didn’t pan out. Maybe it’s also Mike Wilson’s time to turn his attention to Asia.

Kuo is not the only reliever the #Mariners have signed today. Also signed ex Jay Shawn Camp to a major league deal. Roster moves coming…

More later (posting from my phone), but I think of Camp as being in the Jamey Wright mold– not many missed bats, enough strikes, and lots of grounders.

The bullpen isn’t going to make or break the Mariners, but GM Jack Zduriencik has assembled a cheap and likely effective unit fronted by Brandon League, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo and Tom Wilhelmsen, followed up by Shawn Kelley, Chance Ruffin and Shawn Camp.

According to Taiwanese media, former Dodger Hong-Chih Kuo closes to sign big league contract with Seattle Mariners. #Dodgers#Mariner

Reports from Taiwan, former #Dodgers Hong Chih Kuo signed with #Mariners for 1 year $0.5M plus bonus $2.25M. If Kuo in 25 men will earn $1M.

That second tweet is a little confusing but I’m guessing Kuo has signed a split contract through which he’ll earn $500k in the minors, $1MM in the majors, with incentives worth up to $2.25MM.

Update: Here is a nice breakdown of the incentives.  H/t @DJ_Sapien
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Update (Sunday): Baker’s “something close?” comment was probably enough of a giveaway, but ESPN’s Jayson Stark has offered up something a little more straight forward.

Clubs that have been interested in Kuo believe that, as expected, he’s he headed for Seattle.

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Original post (Saturday): The Seattle Times’ Geoff Baker relays via Twitter that the Mariners aren’t necessarily done tinkering with their bullpen.

Mariners looking closely at LH reliever Hong Chih Kuo. Signing close? FA from Dodgers.

GM Jack Zduriencik has already brought in George Sherrill to quench his apparent appetite for a LOOGY, but Kuo has never been limited to left-on-left matchups so the two aren’t mutually exclusive.  Kuo is coming off a down year in which his walk rate skyrocketed and he dealt with an anxiety disorder, but between 2008 and 2010 he was one of the better relievers in the game when healthy, racking up the second most WAR among non-closer relievers over that span and being named to the 2010 National League All-Star squad.  The Mariners could be getting a minor bargain production-wise and, perhaps more importantly, an attractive trade chip come July if all goes well.

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Recommended reading: Eno Sarris | Hong-Chih Kuo and His Tale of Perseverance | FanGraphs Baseball

Without further ado, here’s a summary of all the other players who will be suiting up for the M’s down in Arizona, organized by how likely they are to make the team.

All but official:

Pitchers: Kevin Millwood, Hisashi Iwakuma

I can’t imagine Millwood signing here if he didn’t have the impression that he was going to get every opportunity to head north as the fifth starter. Unless he all of the sudden can’t hit eighty on the gun, he’s in. Iwakuma is listed here because of my dopey parameters for this post.

Competing for a spot: 

Pitchers: Aaron Heilman, Josh Kinney, Stephon Pryor, Forrest Snow, Phil Valiquette, Danny Hultzen

Infielders: Carlos Guillen, Luis Rodriguez, Munenori Kawasaki

Of this group, one of the first five will probably make the squad as a middle reliever. Heilman and Kinney have major league experience, while Pryor and Snow are both intriguing prospects fresh off a tour in the Arizona Fall League. Pryor throws hard and has been closing in the minors; he probably has the most long term upside of this group. Valiquette was claimed off waivers this off-season, and while he is more fringy than the other four, he is a lefty who throws ninety-nine miles per hour. Those don’t exactly grow on trees.

Guillen could conceivably start at third base if the organization doesn’t want to run with Kyle Seager out of the blocks. Otherwise, one of he, Rodriguez, or Kawasaki will likely break camp as the backup infielder. Millwood’s signing lessens the chance that Hultzen will pull off the rare college-to-majors jump.

Longshots:

Pitchers:

Matt Fox, Steve Garrison, Sean Henn, Jeff Marquez, Scott Patterson, Oliver Perez, Erasmo Ramirez, Lucas Luetge

Outfielders:

Darren Ford, Vinnie Catricala

Garrison, Henn and Luetge are all lefties that had an outside but realistic chance to make the team before George Sherrill signed a contract. Now, they’re mostly interchangeable pieces of Lookout Landing’s famous pile. Henn throws fairly hard and gets some ground balls. Luetge struck out a batter per inning in double-A last year, but he is twenty-four, and that’s a little old for the league. He is a rule five pick, however, so if the club likes him, they could find a spot on the roster for him.

I’m not sure if Oliver Perez is in camp to push some of the young starters or if he’s willing to possibly consider pitching out of the bullpen. If he wants to take a crack at relieving, there have been crazier reclamation projects that have panned out.

Patterson is unlikely to make the team, but he’s kind of a sleeper of mine. He’s just a two pitch righty without overwhelming stuff, but he posted a cool 2.44 FIP in Tacoma last year and he settled in as the Rainiers closer as they played out the string.

Ford could conceivably make the team as the fifth outfielder; he’s the obvious pinch runner, defensive oriented candidate if the M’s want to send Michael Saunders back to Tacoma. Catricala probably won’t appear in the big leagues until later this year or 2013. He tore through double A after a mid-season promotion and rocketed up prospect lists, thanks to a .347/.420/.632 line in sixty games.

No chance:

Pitchers: Jarret Grube, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Yoervis Medina

Catchers: Ralph Henriquez, Guillermo Quiroz, Jesus Sucre

Infielders: Nick Franklin, Francisco Martinez, Carlos Triunfel

Outfielders: Luis Jimenez, Johermyn Chavez, Chih-Hsien Chiang

Paxton, Walker, Franklin, Martinez, Triunfel, Chavez, and Chiang are here for the experience. All of them are talented but are various years away from realistically competing to make the club. Grube (30) and Jimenez (29) are organizational soldiers that have steadily risen through the minor league ranks over the years. I’m rooting for them to get a cup of coffee somewhere before they have to hang ‘em up, but I just can’t see a place for them on this team right now. Henriquez, Quiroz, and Sucre are in camp to catch bullpens; with five catchers ahead of them on the forty-man roster, they’re buried on the depth chart.

Baseball. We’ve almost made it to you.

The Washington Nationals have reached an agreement on a one-year deal with free agent pitcher Edwin Jackson, who had also been targeted by the Boston Red Sox.

From the looks of it, the Mariners are done with their meaningful offseason transactions.  With Jackson off the market, the M’s no longer have the option to sign a great major league pitcher for a reasonable price for a long time.  I know, it feels odd to call Edwin Jackson a great pitcher, but the righty has been worth at least 3.6 WAR the last three seasons, and now he’ll slot into a rotation that already includes Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg.

Of course, at FanFest Jack Zduriencik hinted that Seattle’s current roster was pretty much set, so it’s highly probable that the team was never interested in Jackson (or Roy Oswalt for that matter) in the first place.  That does not mean, however, that signing either of the two would not have benefited the team.  In fact, signing Jackson to a one-year deal would have given the Mariners the rotation depth to keep from rushing their talented young pitchers in the high minors.

And so ends (probably) the most disappointing Mariners offseason in recent memory.  I can’t believe I’m saying this, but spring training can’t come soon enough.

Carlos Guillen has not given Mariner fans much to smile about over the years.  He was part of the trade that sent Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros in 1997.  Sad for 9-year-old me.  He played through tuberculosis in 2001.  Sad for him and his teammates.  Former GM Bill Bavasi set the tone for his reign of terror by dealing him to the Detroit Tigers for a minor league utility player and a Major League utility player.  More sadness.  Guillen went on to be a three-time All-Star with the Tigers.  Most sadness.

But at least there was this.

Now he’s back as a 36-year-old who has seen a number of injuries limit him to a year’s worth of big league action since 2009.

But while Guillen was part of one of the greatest teams in baseball history as a Mariner, I somehow doubt his return to the Northwest was fueled by nostalgia.  It was probably fueled by the Mariners’ third base depth chart.

Kyle Seager
Chone Figgins
Alex Liddi
Munenori Kawasaki (NRI)
Luis Rodriguez (NRI)
Vinnie Catricala (NRI)
Carlos Triunfel

It’s been a while since Guillen has been healthy and effective, but this sorry bunch could leave plenty of room for him to rack up as many starts at third base as his body will allow.  Any slips from Seager, Figgins and Liddi and viola– he’s in.

Or we could go the whole season without seeing Guillen as a Mariner.  In the end, this isn’t any sort of a game-changer for Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners, but until a better solution is unearthed, all depth is good depth at the Mariners’ weakest position.

Welcome back, Carlos.  Best of luck to you.

January 2012 has been one of the busiest months of my life outside of the blog, which should explain why I’ve only managed one lamesauce post since Christmas.  Hopefully I’ll be able to obtain some balance here shortly, but I can’t be too worried about it as the rest of the PBNW crew has been putting out some good content lately.

But while I haven’t managed to write in awhile, I am happy to let you know that there is some big behind the scenes work going on with the goal of unveiling a completely overhauled and redesigned PBNW this spring.  With that in mind, I’d like to ask you, loyal reader, what you want out of a baseball blog, and specifically this baseball blog.

Content is first and foremost, but what other amenities and features would you like to see here? What are we missing?  What are all baseball blogs missing?

This site is for you, so I’d love to see some discussion in the comments.  Alternatively, feel free to contact me directly.

Thanks for reading,

Jon

Jack Zdurincik frequently mentions the need to build a “foundation” – a strong farm system and a core of young players from which a championship team can be built. In my judgment, the “foundation-building” is reaching the point of diminishing returns. Seattle possesses at least nine plausible starting pitchers that could be ready by mid-2012 (Hernandez, Vargas, Beavan, Iwakuma, Furbush, Noesi, Hultzen, Paxton, Ramirez), seven of which are younger than 26. By 2013, the Mariners could have seven major league ready young infielders (Smoak, Ackley, Franklin, Seager, Martinez, Liddi, Truinfel, Catricala, and maybe Brad Miller later in the year), and while they may be weaker in the outfield, there are plenty of options with some major league potential. The lower levels of the Mariners minor league system are strong, and the next draft will augment these assets.

Seattle is poised to mature into an average or better team, even without any substantial additions. Just for good measure, the Mariners will be extremely well positioned to make substantial additions, given the strength of the lower levels of the organization, the reduction in payroll this off season, and the money freed by a smaller Ichiro contract (or departure). Even if the Mariners aren’t slated for 85 wins in 2013, the days of .200 averages are over. The Mariners will have the resources and depth necessary to ensure that each position is filled by a major league caliber player.

This accordingly narrows the Mariners’ options on the pitching side of the free agent market.  With Jeff Francis off the market, we can expect the M’s to either ink Edwin Jackson to a multi-year deal or to stand pat with their current crop of starters.  At this point, though, they’re probably going to do nothing.  With two hotshot young lefties on the fast track to the majors, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for this team to block a rotation spot for the next four years.  The organization clearly believes that Danny Hultzen and James Paxton can be successful major league pitchers, so the team’s current set of priorities dictate that the M’s will probably target a third baseman rather than a pitcher.

Edit: Sources also indicate that if the deal with St. Louis falls through, Oswalt could be headed for Texas.

I would not have been comfortable with the Mariners giving Fielder a similar deal.  Fielder is guaranteed ~23 million per season until 2020, at which point he’ll be 37 years old.  There’s a chance that Prince craters after the first few years of the deal, and considering his weight and his father’s career arc, that probability is a lot greater than Tigers fans might like.

Since the M’s have not signed Fielder, they still have ~16 million dollars to add to the 2012 payroll.  I would guess that the team pursues a starting pitcher to patch the hole created by Pineda’s departure from the rotation.  If Danny Hultzen and James Paxton are ready for the majors sooner than the Mariners expect, the M’s can always jettison Jason Vargas or Kevin Millwood.

In any case, not signing Fielder doesn’t create any problems for the M’s.  If anything, the M’s just avoided a huge problem.

This confirms what I theorized last week.  Prince Fielder will probably be a Washington National in 2012, and he probably won’t be a Texas Ranger.  I’m happy to hear this.

Rosenthal says nothing about the M’s, though.  The intrigue continues.

Millwood is 37 years old and right-handed.  He’s been a solid pitcher over the course of his career, hitting 3.3 WAR as recently as 2008 (which at this point isn’t very recent at all), and he pitched well for the Rockies in 9 starts last season.  Millwood’s 6.0 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, and 42.2 groundball percentage last year are nothing to scoff at.  The Mariners could certainly do worse, as they’re only looking for someone to hold Danny Hultzen’s rotation spot until he’s ready for the bigs.  And if Millwood pitches like he did last season, you won’t see me complaining.

If this is true, and the Mariners have actually signed Millwood, then I’ll be mildly surprised if they sign Edwin Jackson as well.  Roy Oswalt, however, remains a distinct possibility, as he’s likely to accept a one-year deal in the hopes of being dealt to a contending team at the trade deadline.