Project on Violent Conflict

Project on Violent Conflict receives $1M Grant

noreply@blogger.com (Rockefeller College) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 20:01:00 +0000

Rethemeyer & Asal

Monday, January 30, 2012 - Rockefeller College's Project on Violent Conflict has won a $1 million dollar award over five years as part of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) based at the University of Maryland to continue to expand the scientific understanding of the human causes and consequences of terrorism, specifically addressing crucial homeland security issues, such as terrorist behavior, violent extremism and counterterrorism. The Project on Violent Conflict, run by Professors Victor Asal and R. Karl Rethemeyer, will focus on collecting data on Terrorist and Extremist Organizations and analyzing factors that help explain their organizational behavior.

Soldier's Best Friend

noreply@blogger.com (Ian) — Fri, 06 May 2011 19:18:00 +0000

We've all heard the old saying about dogs being man's best friend, well then these dog's must be a soldier's best friend. Be sure to check out this interesting article on the roles that our canine companions are taking on the front lines of the War on Terror.

PVC Researchers Answer Questions on Osama Bin Laden's Death

noreply@blogger.com (Ian) — Fri, 06 May 2011 18:52:00 +0000

Click here to listen to interviews with three of PVC's researchers where they respond to questions about al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden's death. They also go on to discuss how his death might effect al-Qaeda and the broader War on Terror.

Check Out PVC Director's on Capitol Pressroom

noreply@blogger.com (Ian) — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 20:34:00 +0000

Last Friday Project on Violent Conflict Co-Directors Victor Asal and Karl Rethemeyer appeared on Susan Arbetter's The Capitol Pressroom to discuss PVC's research on terrorism. Click here to listen to the radio show (the interview begins at the 30 minute mark).

Two Other Bad Guys Dealt With (Really Bad Guys)

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 00:06:00 +0000

The Baitullah news could overshadow a couple other big successes in the past couple days.

1) Noordin Mohammed Top, the Jemaah Islamiyah splinter leader who took credit for the recent Jakarta Hotel bombings, is believed to have been killed in a firefight today on the Indonesian Island of Java. (Reuters)

2) New LTTE leader, and former LTTE arms kingpin Selvarasa Pathmanathan (or “KP”) was arrested in a “Southeast Asian” country. He took over for recently deceased LTTE founder and leader Velupillai Prabhakaran. KP was such a major force in the LTTE international network that this is a major win. For details of his role running the LTTE arms and logistics networks (nicknamed the ‘KP Branch”) read the appendix to RANDs report Trends in Outside Support to Insurgencies, that focuses on LTTE Military Procurement. (Malay Star, RAND)

Baitullah is Dead

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 23:59:00 +0000

The leader of Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is dead. Starting a couple days ago, stories about the death of Mrs. Baitullah Mehsud began to filter out of Pakistan. Initially rumours that Baitullah was with her were denied… but today those rumors appear confirmed. This is either a big win, or not really, depending on who you ask. (CTC, Long War Journal, Daily Times)

“The most wanted terrorist in Pakistan, Baitullah Mehsud, is most likely in repose, the result of a successful jointed intelligence operation mounted by the U.S. Air Force equipment, the CIA operations officers and Pakistan's ISI. Mehsud, according to a United Nations report not disputed by the intelligence community, has been responsible for about 80% of the terrorism-related carnage in Pakistan, including the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. A former ISI asset, Meshud is responsible for the deaths of American soldiers, too. In March, he promised a "spectacular" attack against Washington, D.C.” (The Atlantic)

“‘I confirm that Baitullah Mehsud and his wife died in the American missile attack in South Waziristan,’ Taliban commander Kafayat Ullah said by telephone on Friday. He would not give any details.” (Dawn)

The Classics - Part 2 - The NYer's Terrorism Coverage

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 00:45:00 +0000

Like the Atlantic, the New Yorker has a long history of bringing great coverage of current events (as well as short stories and essays by the likes of Steve Martin, Woody Allen, etc). There are a host of classic stories from the NYer too, like Philip Gourevitch’s coverage of the Rwandan Genocide and Sy Hersh’s coverage of Abu Ghraib.

But more recently, they’ve also produced some of the best terrorism coverage anywhere. Jeffrey Goldberg’s two-part story on Hezbollah remains one of the best open source looks at the Lebanese group and its connections in South America’s Tri-Border Region. Lawrence Wright’s coverage of Al Qaeda is also unparalleled (except maybe by Peter Bergen). His profile of Ayman al Zawahiri, coverage of new AQ theorists like Abu Musab al Suri and Abu Bakr Naji, and his take on the recantations of Dr. Fadl, are modern classics. Finally, George Packer who manages to cover every conceivable topic well, did a phenomenal piece on the adoption of social science methods by the US military for counter-insurgency.

In the Party of God by Jeffrey Goldberg
Part 1, Part 2

The Man Behind Bin Laden by Lawrence Wright

The Master Plan by Lawrence Wright

The Rebellion Within by Lawrence Wright

Knowing the Enemy by George Packer

The Classics – Part 1 – The Atlantic Monthly Edition

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 22:00:00 +0000

The Atlantic Monthly is a great American magazine, and has contributed immensely to discussions of violent conflict over the years. Here are four classic articles that anyone looking to understand, or discuss, violent conflict in the modern world has to investigate. These articles give deep insight into the causes of violent conflict, be they modernization (Lewis and Barber), resource scarcity (Kaplan), or second order effects from foreign policy decisions (Weaver).

The Coming Anarchy by Robert Kaplan

Jihad vs. McWorld by Benjamin Barber

The Roots of Muslim Rage by Bernard Lewis

Blowback by Mary Anne Weaver

New Army Doctrine?

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:22:00 +0000

Apparently the Army is switching from the “Military Decision Making Process” (MDMP) to a new approach to warfighting called “Design.” Basically it is moving from a discrete and concrete problem-based planning approach, to a more amorphous systems-based approach.

A decent summary is here (Wired)

These are some of the major articles outlining the doctrinal shift:

The Art of Design: A Design Methodology from the Military Review

Educating By Design from the Military Review

Systems vs Classical Approach to Warfare from Joint Force Quarterly

Much of this thought comes out of the School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS)

New Terrorism Analysis on AQI and Jemaah Islamiyah, and a Bonus

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 20:52:00 +0000

Foreign Fighters and Their Economic Impact: A Case Study of Syria and al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) - By Matthew Levitt (Washington Institute)

Making Sense of the Jakarta Bombings: The Shades of Grey - By Zachary Abuza (CT Blog)

Bonus: Old Navy, the official clothing brand of the Al Qaeda lifestyle? (Jarret Brachman)

American Shabaab Fighter Al-Amriki Releases Statement... Reminds Us Why Jihadism Will Fail

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 22:55:00 +0000

NEFA has a translation of a statement by Al Shabaab mouthpiece/megatool Abu Mansoor al Amriki (Abu Mansoor the American). Mansoor, an American fighting with the Somali Islamist militia, is probably best known from his appearances in Al Shabaab recruiting videos.

While his newest statement includes a lot of the traditional jihadists platitudes... it does fairly articulately encapsulate an important attribute of jihadist thought that Western audiences are sometimes loathe to confront. The fundamental incompatibility of the jihadist worldview and and many values we hold dear. (Human rights, minority rights, gender equality, etc)

"Human rights, women’s rights, minority rights, the right to choose your religion and your lifestyle, the right to a good job, the freedom of speech, the freedom to vote, justice, equality, and so forth. All of these words mean the western-form of democracy that cannot be reconciled with Islam.

Human rights simply mean that the Hudud should not be established. Stoning and cutting of the hand are all against human rights. Women’s rights mean that women do not have to wear hijab if they choose not to, and the right to tear down the family structure. It means denying the verses about inheritance and bearing witness. Minority rights mean treating those who are at war with God in the same manner as Muslims. Freedom of religion means freedom to become an apostate without having the Islamic ruling being applied. It also means protecting and encouraging missionaries and the like who will try their best to misguide our families. Freedom of lifestyle means freedom to be a homosexual. Freedom of speech means the freedom to abuse our beloved Prophets, peace be upon them, and even our God. Freedom to vote means that the uneducated and the educated must all be given an equal say. And it means that the Law of God is open for change and debate. Justice means only that which is in line with the American Constitution." --Abu Mansoor al Amriki (NEFA)

This is why these clowns will lose. Sadly, it will take a while.

The LIFG, Targeted Killing, and Uyghur Militants Respond to Recent Riots

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 22:48:00 +0000

1) A translation of the recent Libyan Islamic Fighting Group Communique de-coupling themselves from Al Qaeda has been posted at NEFA. At CT Blog, Evan offers some analysis of the debate over who is the “official” LIFG… sort of similar to the situation in which elements of Gamaa Islamiyah rejected AQ despite Rifai Taha’s condemnation of the end of GI’s armed operations. (NEFA, CT Blog, Jamestown)

2) Richard Clarke in the WSJ on the CIA “targeted killing” (i.e. assassination) program that Dick Cheney wanted to keep on the down low. (WSJ)

3) The Uyghur separatist/Islamist Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) finally responded publicly to the recent protests and riots in Urumqi. Their military leader Saifullah released a statement translated here. Some envision this as a new chapter in jihadist terrorism… and depending on the Chinese response, it may be. Lets hope for the Uyghur’s sake that the Chinese aren’t looking for lessons from another police states past… like the Syrian response to Muslim Brotherhood violence.

Jakarta Hotels Bombed

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 02:42:00 +0000

There were two bombings today in Jakarta, Indonesia. The bombings struck two hotels (the Ritz Carlton and Marriott) in the city. Terrorism nerds will remember that the Jakarta Marriott was bombed in 2003 by Jemaah Islamiyah. BBC is reporting that at least 6 people were killed in the blasts. (CT Blog, Wikipedia, BBC)

Jemaah Islamiyah, the somewhat AQ-affiliated jihadist network in Southeast Asia, had been described as either defeated or resurgent depending on who you talk to. Some of the most clear headed analysis on the group (and the broader Indonesian jihadist milieu) is from the International Crisis Group. (US News, ME Forum, ICG)

Cyber Threats: They're bad. And we're unprepared.

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 14:16:00 +0000

Michael Tanji has a somewhat pessimistic, but not inaccurate account of “why US cyber security sucks” at Danger Room.

While, in general, cyber security is seen as something that is far off on the horizon or kids playing around, a story a year or so back drove home not just the fact that it’s a real problem… but that a 14 year old can do it. And did.

(Danger Room, The Telegraph)

Polish Teen Derails Tram After Hacking Train Network - January

“A Polish teenager allegedly turned the tram system in the city of Lodz into his own personal train set, triggering chaos and derailing four vehicles in the process. Twelve people were injured in one of the incidents…

He studied the trams and the tracks for a long time and then built a device that looked like a TV remote control and used it to manoeuvre the trams and the tracks," said Miroslaw Micor, a spokesman for Lodz police.

He had converted the television control into a device capable of controlling all the junctions on the line and wrote in the pages of a school exercise book where the best junctions were to move trams around and what signals to change…

Problems with the signalling system on Lodz's tram network became apparent on Tuesday when a driver attempting to steer his vehicle to the right was involuntarily taken to the left. As a result the rear wagon of the train jumped the rails and collided with another passing tram. Transport staff immediately suspected outside interference.” (The Register)

Shocking: Zawahiri Unhappy With US Presence in South Asia

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 13:35:00 +0000

Ayman al Zawahiri released a new tape tuesday, calling on the people of Pakistan to fight the American “occupiers.” It included the traditional blustering about Crusaders occupying Afghanistan and Pakistan, but went out of the way to emphasize that it is every individual Pakistani Muslim’s responsibility to fight the US. The transcript is available from NEFA here.
(ADN Kronos, NEFA)

"He's talking about the American 'occupation' of Pakistan ... Pakistan isn't occupied by anybody. What he means is the operations against the Pakistani Taliban by the Pakistani army…

…He says that these operations are run by the US - that this is not a Pakistani war, this is a US proxy war. It's that kind of inflammatory language that he's hoping will get people riled up."
– Imran Khan, Al Jazeera

Translation of New Abu Yahya al-Libi Book

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:01:00 +0000

The Secrecy News blog at the Foundation of American Scientists has posted an Open Source Center translation of the new book “Guidance on the Ruling of the Muslim Spy” by AQ big-wig Abu Yahya al-Libi. The book, released on jihadist web forums in late June, covers the intelligence operations by Western forces against al Qaeda, as well as the religious and legal issues surrounding Muslims that serves as spies.

(Secrecy News, Foundation for the Defense of Democracy)

Power Transition theory, Jay-Z, and what IR has been missing

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 14:45:00 +0000

Marc Lynch posted a preposterously cool analysis of Jay-Z and The Game’s recent beef as a metaphor for foreign policy and power transition. Kenneth Organski would be proud… assuming he was able to draw the correct parallels between international politics and the rap game. (Marc Lynch, Wikipedia)

Power transition theory amongst rappers is an untapped academic field… and one that will inevitably result in some of the dopest dissertations ever.

“So what prompted him to finally cross the line and attack Jay-Z? …Maybe he really just wants to test himself … the way rising powers do…

Maybe he calculated that now was the moment to strike, and that the rest of the middle powers will ally with him to topple the tyrant…

But still, the timing is odd for a "power transition" narrative, given that Jay-Z is set to release his new Blueprint 3 album in September and has done a whole series of verses with other leading rappers in recent years (including Nas, Lil Wayne, and T.I.) which is to hip hop as "alliances" are to International Relations.

He may be old, but hardly looks like a declining power.... although perhaps Game simply detects weakness in Jay-Z's age… He clearly understands the extent of Jay-Z's structural power, daring a long list of influential DJs to play I'm So Wavy.” (Marc Lynch)

Abu Muqawama also gets props for following up the awesome blog post with an awesome blog post title “I Got 99 Problems But Global Hegemony Ain’t One” (Abu Muqawama)

UPDATE (7/15/09):

Follow ups from many folks. (Marc Lynch @ FP)

The Decline of Violence?

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 13:46:00 +0000

Psychologist Steven Pinker argues that violence is declining. And there’s evidence to suggest that he’s right. “…if we consider the evidence, we find that the decline of violence is a fractal phenomenon: We can see the decline over millennia, centuries, decades, and years…” (Greater Good)

That said, violence remains a serious problem… and despite a “fractal” decline in violent death… there’s so much about the phenomena of political violence that we don’t understand.

Here Pinker gives a speech on the "Myth of Violence" at TED.

“Our seemingly troubled times are routinely contrasted with idyllic images of hunter-gatherer societies, which allegedly lived in a state of harmony with nature and each other…

But now that social scientists have started to count bodies in different historical periods, they have discovered that the romantic theory gets it backward: Far from causing us to become more violent, something in modernity and its cultural institutions has made us nobler. In fact, our ancestors were far more violent than we are today. Indeed, violence has been in decline over long stretches of history, and today we are probably living in the most peaceful moment of our species' time on earth…

In the decade of Darfur and Iraq, that statement might seem hallucinatory or even obscene. But if we consider the evidence, we find that the decline of violence is a fractal phenomenon: We can see the decline over millennia, centuries, decades, and years.” (Greater Good)

Klansman/White Power-Fire Bomber Found and Arrested... In Israel

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 13:20:00 +0000

A purported Klansman or Aryan Brotherhood supporter was arrested Sunday in Tel Aviv, Israel. “Alleged white supremacist Micky Louis Mayon, who was featured on the US TV programme America's Most Wanted, was seized in a police raid in Tel Aviv.” (BBC)

It is a bit strange that a white-supremacist and Klansman would take refuge in the only Jewish state in the world… but I guess it does seem like an unlikely place to look for him.

I think the classic television show America’s Most Wanted, which profiled Mayon, said it best….

“Police in Steelton, Pa. say Micky Mayon is a white power advocate with an incendiary personality. Cops say that after Mayon torched a judge's car, he became one of Steelton's most wanted criminals.” (AMW)

AQIM Threatens China Over Xinjiang Violence

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:59:00 +0000

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is threatening to attack Chinese interests in response to the deaths of Muslim Uyghur separatists in the recent unrest in China. This report is according to several news sources quoting analysis by the British political risk management firm Stirling Assynt. This threat shouldn’t be too hard for AQIM to follow up on, because of the increasing presence of Chinese interests across Africa. (Al Sharq al Aawsat, Guardian, FPRI)

Two Men Charged with Recruiting Somali Americans for Jihad

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:57:00 +0000

The FBI indicted two men for material support to terrorism. The two are accused of playing recruiting roles in the well publicized case in which numerous Somali-American men have disappeared to East Africa to fight with Islamist militias. (NYT, CNN)

“The disclosure of the indictment, which was handed up by a grand jury in February, is the first public step in a sweeping federal investigation of more than 20 young Americans who are believed to have joined a militant Islamist group in Somalia, the Shabaab, that is affiliated with Al Qaeda.

The indictment states that one of the men, Salah Osman Ahmed, flew from Minneapolis to Somalia in December 2007 to “fight jihad.” Mr. Ahmed, 26, and Abdifatah Yusuf Isse, 25, have been charged with plotting to provide “personnel including themselves” in a conspiracy to “kill, kidnap, maim or injure” people in a foreign country.

The case drew national attention after one of the other men, Shirwa Ahmed, blew himself up in an attack in Somalia last October, becoming the first known American suicide bomber.

The indictments followed news that two other Somali-American men suspected of fighting with the Shabaab were shot dead Friday in a battle in the Somali capital. Relatives and friends reported the deaths of the men, Zakaria Maruf, 30, and Jamal Sheikh Bana, 20, both of Minneapolis.” (NYT)

Uyghur Protesters Kick it Old School

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:11:00 +0000

Despite a host of recent cases in which Twitter and other high-tech social networking services have been used to organize protests (like Moldova and Iran), it turns out that in places where such services are less widely available, old fashion methods still work. (Advent Creative, NYT, Bloomberg)

The protests last week in Urumqi (the capital of China’s western Xinjiang province… home to the Uyhghur separatist movement) were apparently organized, at least in part, by signs posted in taxi windows. (The Australian)

“Several days before Uighur demonstrators gathered in the streets of the northwest city of Urumqi on July 5 in a protest that sparked China's bloodiest bout of civil unrest for 20 years, secret signs started appearing in taxi windows.

Local security chiefs missed the signals. Many were away on annual holidays. But the clues were important because they alerted Uighurs in the capital of Xinjiang province to demonstrate against the Han Chinese.

The signals told the Uighurs to avenge the racially motivated killings of two Uighur migrant workers last month in a toy factory in southern Guangdong province after rumours that they had raped several women.”

Pakistan Admits to Nurturing Terrorism in Past

noreply@blogger.com (Ian) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 13:27:00 +0000

Pakistan, and specifically its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has long been suspected and accused by India of aiding Islamist terrorists operating out of Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, and primarily Kashmir.

Now for the first time Pakistani President Zardari admits Pakistan's role in fostering terrorism against India for short-term tactical goals.

According to preliminary data from PVC's BAAD II dataset on terrorist organizations from 1998-2007, Pakistan's ISI has network connections with Islamist groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HuM) as well as other anti-Indian ethnonationalist groups operating in the "Seven Sisters" region of India such as the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-IM (NSCN-IM).

The Economics of the Arms Trade (Mexico, Sierra Leone and the Kalashnikov)

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:25:00 +0000

Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting), a private intelligence consultancy, has released some interesting new analysis in its weekly security report. The piece Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade gives good insight into the economics of the gun-running that keeps the narco-insurgency along the Mexican-US border going. That analysis is valuable… but so is the good insight the piece provides on the general economy of weapons sales:

“When analysts examine arms sales they look at three general categories: the white arms market, the gray arms market and the black arms market. The white arms market is the legal, aboveboard transfer of weapons in accordance with the national laws of the parties involved and international treaties or restrictions…”

“…the white arms market can be deceived and manipulated, and when this happens, we get the gray market — literally, white arms that are shifted into the hands of someone other than the purported recipient…”

“… At the far end of the spectrum is the black arms market where the guns are contraband from the get-go and all the business is conducted under the table. There are no end-user certificates and the weapons are smuggled covertly.” (STRATFOR)

There are a couple other great sources on the logistics and economics of the arms market:

- The article Weaponomics: the Global Market for Assault Rifles by Phillip Killicoat (for the World Bank) gives interesting insights into how one of the lifebloods of civil conflict, the Kalashnikov rifle, moves in international markets. (World Bank)

- Frontline did a great documentary about the international arms trade: Sierra Leone – Gunrunners. You can watch the film, and read excellent supplementary materials at PBS’s website. (PBS Frontline)

-Portfolio (which has sadly recently ended publication) did an excellent profile on the weapons pipeline from the United States to Mexican drug traffickers. (Portfolio)

New Bin Laden Tape and Developments in the Niger Delta

noreply@blogger.com (Aldous) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 21:04:00 +0000

1) A new Osama Bin Laden tape surfaced this weekend… and the NY Daily News has good coverage of it. The tape predominantly focuses Bin Laden’s criticism of the Zardari government and other Pakistani’s working against the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda elements in the Swat Valley and the Pashtun tribal areas.

While I don’t find Bin Laden’s rhetoric particularly compelling… the man does have a certain way of creating images with his statements. "Obama and his administration have sowed new seeds of hatred for America and the desire to seek revenge…The number of seeds equals the number of afflicted and homeless in the Swat valley and the tribal regions of North and South Waziristan." (NY Daily News)

2) Solomon Ndigbara, a Nigerian militant leader in “the creeks” area of the Niger delta, has surrendered to government forces friday. Ndigbara has been nicknamed “Osama Bin Laden” in Nigeria. He turned over weapons to the government, and agreed to work on behalf of peace in the region. He also endorsed the government pardons of militants, despite the fact that the largest militant group - MEND or the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta – who felt that the amnesty didn't address all the requisite issues. (Xinhua, Bloomberg, All Africa)