Purposeful Investor

Exxon Mobil - Bullish Divergence

2010-08-01T16:44:00.000-07:00

Bullish divergences in MACD Histogram and RSI on the monthly chart

Bullish divergences on the weekly charts

Bullish divergences on the daily charts as well
Recommendation: Wait for XOM to reach oversold levels for a better entry point

Barrick Gold - Question of "When?"

2010-07-25T16:37:00.000-07:00

Barrick Gold is the world's top gold producer. They are simply the best:

#1 gold reserves
#1 gold producer - and finally unhedged
tremendous project pipeline
provides global diversification in geopolitically stable regions
strong balance sheet
strong management
etc, etc, etc

Gold is currently in a correction, and this presents an opportunity to "invest" in Barrick Gold. "Invest" is intentionally quoted, because don't consider this a trade. This is both a value and growth investment opportunity. The charts are indicating the downtrend to continue, but what's interesting is that the Gold miners earnings are coming out this week. Barrick reports on Thursday. Early in the week may be a buy opportunity.

Gold Correction - Chart Updates

2010-07-25T15:22:00.000-07:00

The trend is still down and is confirmed by the weekly MACD-Histogram and RSI indicators

On the daily charts, the down trend appears to be easing, but the trend is still down. Look for a bullish divergence in the weekly charts for a buy opportunity

Gold Bearish Divergence Point to Correction

2010-07-18T08:47:00.000-07:00

Weekly Chart

Class A bearish divergence in weekly MACD and RSI

Daily Charts

Indicators on daily charts confirm internal weakness and downward price trend

MACD(50,200,1) slope is negative

Note the bearish divergence

momentum indicators are confirming downtrend

volume indicators are also bearish

NOTE: The ADX line is moving up and has crossed over the lower line

this usually indicates a strong trend move is about to start

Summary

It appears that the long awaited Gold correction has begun which coincides with a wave 5 completion. The retracement target is into the wave 4 formation, which aligns quite nicely with the Fibonacci retracement levels - see the weekly chart above.

Recommended Strategy: wait for a bullish divergence on the weekly chart before going long.

Global Markets Crash - Is Gold Next?

2010-06-06T11:19:00.000-07:00

The long term secular bull market is still intact. However, Gold may be headed for at least the mid-channel and possibly the bottom of the channel ...In other words, Gold may be entering a corrective phase soon.

ABX - Tale of Two Currencies

2010-05-24T03:38:00.000-07:00

The $USD has surged on safe haven buying, but it did take a breather lasty week
The more "risky" $CDW has been crushed in the last several weeks.
Because of high currency volatility, companies dually listed on US and CAD exchanges tell a different story when charted, which makes technical analysis more difficult.
One thing to note is that overall the Gold miners did suffer severe technical damage last week. The $XAU and $HUI have reversed and both are oversold. ABX has not reversed it's trend yet, but it is on the edge - the same goes for Gold.
Expect an oversold bounce this week, and be on alert.

ABX Breakout on Weekly Charts is Confirmed

2010-05-16T06:26:00.000-07:00

next stop is the 2008 highs ... after it breaks through the 2008 highs, the sky is the limit

ABX Bounces off Gap and Broken Resistance Trend Line Support

2010-05-14T16:01:00.000-07:00

ABX Pullback Targets

2010-05-13T18:29:00.000-07:00

Gold, Silver, and Miners Break Away

2010-05-12T03:57:00.000-07:00

ilver and the miners are all breaking out with force. This would imply (hyper)inflation is being priced in (because of the EU bailout package). The miners have some catching up to do ...

UUP ($USD) is Surging

2010-05-11T03:43:00.000-07:00

ABX Breaks Out on Weekly Charts

2010-05-11T03:24:00.000-07:00

on a weekly closing basis, ABX has broken out and has surpassed Nov's high

Global Currency Collapse History Lessons

2010-05-10T15:31:00.000-07:00

1998 Russian Financial Crisis
1997 Asian Financial Crisis

This time it has been the USD followed by the Euro ...

ABX Holds During Global Sell Off

2010-05-09T07:11:00.000-07:00

GLD Breakout on the Weekly Charts

2010-05-07T11:07:00.001-07:00

MFI Bearish Divergence for GLD

2010-05-06T19:21:00.000-07:00

GLD is at resistance - top of the channel + previous high

Global Markets Crash - USD and Gold are surviving Asset Classes

2010-05-06T16:16:00.000-07:00

Gold Miners Started Strong - Finished Weak

2010-04-30T17:09:00.000-07:00

Gold had a pretty good day. The Gold miners started strong, but faded at the end of the day. While GLD closed +0.95%, the $HUI closed +0.67%.

ABX did break out, but I am expecting a retest of the breakout and possibly a retest of the gap in the 41 region
A good entry position will be when the MACD reaches oversold conditions on the 60 min chart, which should coincide with a retest of the breakout

ABX is Knocking on the Door

2010-04-30T04:04:00.000-07:00

Barrick had great earnings and is finally unleashing its full potential with full exposure to unhedged Gold prices.
Barrick is surging and volume is confirming
When ABX breaks through this 2+ year downtrend line - ABX should explode

Gold Reserve Analysis

2010-04-29T03:52:00.000-07:00

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/4024207

Summary:

ABX has most GEO
HMY is valued low because of high production costs
AUY - "over 30% of the firm's gold reserves, as well as the bulk of its copper and molybdenum reserves, are locked up in Agua Rica, a massive undeveloped metal deposit where mine construction will not start until 2012 at the earliest"
GRS is overvalued based on production costs,reserves are declining, small reserves
EGO and AEM are low cost producers

"Agnico-Eagle similarly boasts relatively low production costs, and furthermore owns a slew of attractive development projects throughout North America."

Other factors to consider when determining the company's overall value

production costs
geopolitical risk
project pipeline

Barrick Trading Plan

2010-04-28T17:32:00.000-07:00

Sell if rejected at top of rising channel
Sell if rejected at the gap
Sell if rejected from underside of broken rising trendline

Barrick Gold Breaks Out

2010-04-28T16:27:00.000-07:00

Gold and miners are breaking out on higher volume
Gold miners are reporting impressive earnings - NEM and ABX had very strong earnings

GLD, GDX 60 min charts - 2010-04-26

2010-04-26T19:41:00.000-07:00

both are in the 61.8% FIB retracement region
both are in rising channel
both are are hitting medium term falling resistance line

Trading Plan Entry Points:

Breakout above medium term falling resistance line - look for confirmation of inverse HSH neckline breakout
At the bottom of the rising channel line with a tight stop right below the bottom channel line

Gold Miners Leading Gold on Renko Charts

2010-04-25T15:58:00.000-07:00

The miners have reversed on the weekly Renko charts before Gold.

Gold Miners Leading Gold - Pointing to Higher Prices

2010-04-22T19:19:00.000-07:00

On the open GLD and GDX gapped down. GLD did recover some but still closed down, while GDX reversed and closed higher.

Be on alert ... tomorrow will be a key day