Q1 Publishing Prosperity Dispatch http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/archive/ Q1 Publishing Prosperity Dispatch Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:54:56 en Exclusive Interview with One of the Most Sought-After Fund Managers Part I New York Times calls “one of the most sought-after fund managers in the country…”  

In his ongoing quest to uncover hidden opportunities, get past the mainstream headlines to find safe investments, Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing’s Chief Investment Strategist, had the opportunity to speak to John P. Calamos, Sr.

Calamos is the chairman, CEO, and founder of Calamos Investments (NASDAQ:CLMS). The firm dates back to 1977 and has become one of the leading investment management companies in the world. As of March 2009, the firm managed $23.5 billion in assets...

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=264 Financial 2009-04-21
Exclusive Interview with One of the Most Sought-After Fund Managers Part II ]]> http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=263 Financial 2009-04-20 How to Double Your Gains with Half the Risk The market just capped off a six week rally. Almost no sector was left behind. Commodities, banks, technology…everything is up. Even shares of embattled commercial real estate companies have started to rebound.

The wild market swings have most investors just as wary as when the market was setting new lows. After six weeks of steady upswings, there still aren’t too many believers in this rally. The mainstream media echoes investor sentiment.

BusinessWeek questions “Is the rally on strong footing?”

Canada’s Globe and Mail advises, “Don’t get your hopes; it’s a dead cat bounce.”

Despite the lack of faith in the current rally, there is still a way to catch the rally without having to take too much risk...

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=260 Financial 2009-04-18
Profiting From the One Thing Which Has Not Changed For better or worse, we’re living in a world of change.

It’s no secret. There’s going to be a lot of changes in the next few years. Regulations, accounting rules, taxes, money supply, healthcare tech, and on and on – it’s all changing. And it’s changing faster than ever.

Change, while creating opportunity for prudent long-term thinkers, has created a lot of uncertainty in the short term. The markets have reacted... ]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=254 Financial 2009-04-16
This Only Happens at the Bottom and the Top I’ve got good and bad news for you.

The bad news…David Dreman was fired.

Last week, the trustees of DWS Dreman High Return Fund (KDHRX) announced Dreman would no longer be managing the fund. He managed the fund for more than 20 years.

If you recall, Dreman is a staunch value investor. He is a true value investor who has made his name not getting caught up in the “hot sector” of the day..

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=248 Financial 2009-04-14
Take What the Market Gives You economists have forecast nine of the past three recessions has been proven true time and time again.

It’s impossible to predict the future. There are so many variables to include. The variables are even greater in a global economy with billions of consumers, hundreds of governments, and technological developments making their way to the market every day... ]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=244 Financial 2009-04-09
The Energy Boom Everyone Forgot About “See that field over there…by the ocean? That’s where it will be. These projects are going to bring prosperity to my country my American friend.”

That’s what my guide told me. I was in Papua New Guinea at the time looking into an energy boom the whole world seems to have forgotten about. The way things are shaping up though this is the time to start thinking about it again.

It’s going to be bigger (and more profitable for investors that pay attention) than almost anything else you’ll find out there in the energy sector.

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=243 Financial 2009-04-07
When Will This Rally End? It’s the question on every investors’ mind…when will this rally end?

There’s no easy answer here. There is a way to tell though. But you probably won’t find it in the mainstream media.

The Times in the U.K. proclaims, “Optimism Races Through Markets After Show of Harmony at G20 Summit.”

Forbes ponders whether we can catch a glimpse of an economic “Light at the End of the Tunnel…”

The New York Times prominently warns, “U.S. Bank Rally Looks Fragile” and goes on to add, “Operating earnings are going to have a hard time outrunning credit losses, making the massive rally in bank shares look ready to be marked down.”

Any help?

Didn’t think so. There is actually a much better way to get a sense of when this rally will end. Here’s how...

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=240 Financial 2009-04-04
Forecast: Copper, Gold and Oil http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=238 Financial 2009-04-03 The Soft Panic of 2009 Has Just Begun Soft Panic of 2009.

Locals know it simply as The Hancock. The 60-story frame wrapped in reflective blue glass makes it look like the tallest mirror in the world. I’m sure it was an impressive sight when it was built in the 70’s. It still is.

The I.M. Pei designed building stood as a symbol of financial strength and ingenuity. Now, it’s looking a whole lot different.

And for those of us looking into this situation now we will be protected. And for more aggressive folks, we’ll actually be able to profit from it all. Here’s how...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=236 Financial 2009-04-02
My Favorite Way to Protect Against Inflation It wasn’t about the bank bailout though. It wasn’t about how the administration decided to draw a line between bank and automaker CEOs. It wasn’t about how a concrete deal for ongoing free trade (or anything else tangible or enforceable) will be reached at the G20 meeting...

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=235 Financial 2009-03-31
5 Reasons to Buy the Other Fossil Fuel Now
It happens all the time. It happened when uranium fell to $7 a pound nearly a decade ago. It happened when oil fell to $10 a barrel a few years ago. It happened again to oil a few months ago when prices fell to $35 a barrel. It’s happened to zinc, copper, agriculture – every commodity.

It’s how the commodity world works. Booms and busts. The most profitable way to invest in commodities is...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=219 Financial 2009-03-28
Exclusive Interview Reveals …Copper to climb 34% to 61%
Sounds pretty reasonable right?

Copper prices have rebounded quickly in the past four months. A pound of copper now trades for $1.86. That’s up more than 40% from December lows of $1.30.

For copper to hit $2.50 or $3.00 a pound would only require another 30% to 60% gain. That’s reasonable considering what’s going on in the world...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=218 Financial 2009-03-27
The Herd Mentality: Some Things Never Change
Now, he wasn’t overly bullish or bearish. He wasn’t betting big on a rally with banks. And he didn’t just make a huge score on some triple-leverage ETF or anything like that. He’s simply running his business and, in the midst of the worst economic downturn decades, it’s doing exceptionally well.

You see, my friend is a coin dealer. He sells gold and silver coins and bullion. But just the fact more people want more gold and silver bullion “insurance policies” isn’t during this time of uncertainty isn’t what has reinforced my faith in the markets. That’s actually a bit unnerving. It is how his sales were moving on a day-by-day basis which had relieved any angst I may have been feeling.

He told me...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=216 Financial 2009-03-25
Turning Wall Street's Darkest Art Into Your Gain
Bloomberg recently called it One of [Wall Street’s] darkest arts.

Time says, It's a trick that has been hastening market crashes for at least 400 years.

New York State’s Attorney General Andrew Cuomo likens this strategy to looting after a hurricane.

It has been called evil, un-American, and destructive. Despite it all, it’s one of the most profitable things you can do and one of the best ways to keep yourself protected in a bear market...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=173 Financial 2009-03-21
Bernanke Buying Spree: The Good, the Bad, and the Reality
Just a few days after his PR tour on 60 Minutes, Fed Chairman Bernanke announced it is going to be pumping over $1.15 trillion worth of freshly printed dollars into the U.S. economy. The lender of last resort said it will be buying mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt and throwing another $100 billion into the Freddie and Fannie black hole.

The big move though, and what got the markets rolling again, was when the Fed said it will be buying longer-term treasuries. This basically means the U.S. government can now borrow money directly from the Fed. It doesn’t have to worry about China or Japan financing a massive debt load and can disregard any sort of fiscal discipline. The Fed is now the official sugar daddy.

How will the Fed get all that money, you ask?]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=172 Financial 2009-03-19
Main St. vs. Wall Street: And the Winner is... 60 Minutes.

The political marketers were out in full force on this one. They did everything from the visit of Bernanke’s childhood home (which is now in foreclosure) to the close up of Main Street sign to the conversation on the street side bench in rural South Carolina. It was the perfect image of I’m like you kind of PR the government decision-makers are looking for right now.

They want to be trusted again. And they’re pulling out all the stops to get back into the public’s good graces after scaring everyone to get the $787 billion stimulus package pushed through.

Then add to that the AIG bonus debacle.

Is it the government’s right, as a majority business owner, to determine which contracts are valid and which are not? Will this mean that I will be able to decide, as a business owner, which contracts I want to comply with and which I don’t? ...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=171 Financial 2009-03-17
Market Rallies and Rhymes: Prepare Yourself Now History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Right now, investors and traders are getting ready for it to rhyme again.

Earlier this week, the government felt the stock market was getting a bit too low again. Our great leaders delved into their ever-shrinking bag of tricks and pulled two of them out. In the process, they sparked the strongest rally since last summer when they stepped in.

Barney Frank, the House Financial Services Committee Chairman, told reporters he has spoke to the Securities and Exchange Commissioner and said, I am hopeful the uptick rule will be restored within a month.

Frank went on to add his support to the current mark-to-market accounting rules (which will make the bank stress tests much less stressful).

Surprised? You shouldn’t be...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=170 Financial 2009-03-12
Who Says Buy and Hold is Dead?: How to Double Up on Growth
As we’ve been expecting, many commentators say it’s the nail in the coffin for buy and hold investing – a strategy which has worked for the past five decades.

As they write their eulogies, which undoubtedly contain numerous references to worst since factoids, buy and hold is not dead. Yes, it is the worst possible strategy for this market. And yes, anyone holding out through this downturn has certainly paid a high price.

However, buy and hold will have its time again. Chances are they’re not holding the right stocks and they’re not getting in anywhere close to the right time. Let me explain...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=167 Financial 2009-03-10
John Embry: Exclusive Interview With Canada's Foremost Gold Investor (Part II) ]]> http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=168 Financial 2009-03-10 John Embry: Exclusive Interview With Canada's Foremost Gold Investor (Part I)
In this exclusive one-on-one, you’ll learn:

- What Embry calls an extreme bright spot

- The one metal which might even be better than gold

-The asset class which has fallen off a cliff and how the decline is a great thing

-The #1 problem facing gold miners in the years ahead

-Why gold production will actually decline if gold continues to climb

-Could we have hit peak gold...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=169 Financial 2009-03-10
Properity Dispatch: Q&A
In order to ensure Prosperity Dispatch readers are on the good side of change, we at Q1 Publishing have prepared another Q/A session to address all of your recent questions.

Among the topics we will go over are:

- How low can the markets really go?
- The fast growing industry a U.S. dollar devaluation would be good for
- What 99% of investors refuse to understand about gold
- Why sometimes it’s more important to look at sectors than stocks
- Our upcoming interviews (you’ll be surprised at who we’re sitting down with in the next few weeks)
- And much, much more
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=166 Financial 2009-03-07
Grizzly Bear Turns Bullish: The Safest Way to Wade Back In
That’s what Steven Leuthold said in an interview yesterday.

Leuthold is one of the most respected fund managers in the world. He is a cofounder of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management which oversees $3.2 billion assets. Leuthold is also the manager of the Grizzly Short Fund, which, as the name implies, bets on falling stocks (the practice of “shorting” stocks). The fund returned 74% in 2008. So, in an inverse way, the fund beat the S&P 500 by about 30%.

In a rare bit of honesty and forthrightness for money managers, Leuthold went as far as saying investors shouldn’t buy into his Grizzly Short fund. I don’t think I’ve ever heard any fund manager, who gets paid on fees based on total assets under management, tell prospective clients not to buy.

The only time a manager would do this is if they couldn’t find anything they wanted to buy. In this case, with a short fund, it means Leuthold can’t find much he wants to sell short.

That’s a good sign. It might not signal a bottom for the overall markets – and I wouldn’t take it as such - but it shows there are much fewer significantly overly valued stocks out there.

If you’re looking to wade back into the stock market, there are ways to do it safely. There is one way to safely get your toes wet in the market. This way has historically outpaced rising markets. It doesn’t do nearly as bad when markets fall. And it actually gets better as the market gets more volatile.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=165 Financial 2009-03-05
Could Obama Push Oil to $300 Per Barrel
He warned of the huge burden war reparations placed on Germany and its allies after WW I. He played an integral role in establishing the post-WW II financial world. His economic theories established the impetus for governments to spend like mad during downturns. He made, lost, and made back a massive fortune in the stock market. He counted Pablo Picasso and Virginia Wolf as friends.

He’s done a lot. His impact on the world is extensive. But today we’ll look at one of his truly lasting legacies. And the invaluable lesson it teaches us about investing. It’s something so many investors fail to ever learn...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=164 Financial 2009-03-03
How to Tell When the Recession is Over
They’ve had to break a lot of bad news to us since this recession started over a year ago. But they’re nice. They’re breaking it to us as gently as possible.

They ask, Do you want the bad news first? Or the really bad news?

And Wall Street’s reflex to avoid reality is quick to ask (and all too willingly accept) for the bad news. This allows the traders on the NYSE floor and the high intensity trading desks at the major banks to hold off on giving up altogether...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=163 Financial 2009-02-28
5 Signs the Economy is Recovering
If you listened to Fed Chairman Bernanke today that’s what we would be led to believe. He said there is a reasonable prospect the recession will end this year.

Now, I know we have too many houses in overbuilt suburbs that nobody wants at these prices. And the auto industry is sucking down billions of cash each month. Housing prices are still falling. It goes on and on. But the government has it all solved.

The credit bubble boom has burst. The government cried panic and scared people for long enough. They got their stimulus bill passed. Now it’s time to think positively...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=161 Financial 2009-02-24
A Prescription for an Ailing Portfolio
Even the most optimistic person would have trouble looking on the bright side. Sure there were numerous advances in HIV treatment. People were living longer and longer with HIV. In 1998 it was common for people infected with HIV to live 10 years or more with the virus. And advances were being made consistently as billions of research dollars were going in to fighting HIV.

Had he contracted the virus a decade earlier in the 80's, there would have been little or no hope...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=41 Financial 2009-02-22
David Dreman: Exclusive Interview with the Dean of Contrarian Investing (Part I) Investors repeatedly jump ship on a good strategy just because it hasn’t worked so well lately, and, almost invariably, abandon it at precisely the wrong time.

That’s what David Dreman wrote back in 1980. At the time, the S&P 500 was sitting around 100 and the Dow was trading around 900 and had plenty of volatile swings. But it pretty much went nowhere for more than a decade.

Practically no one was interested in buying stocks back then. That is, of course, except for Dreman.

In 1980, he literally wrote the book on contrarian investing – Contrarian Investment Strategy: The Psychology of Stock-Market Success - in which he recommended buying stocks.

In an exclusive interview with Q1 Publishing Here is what he has to say about what is going on now.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=43 Financial 2009-02-21
David Dreman: Exclusive Interview with the Dean of Contrarian Investing (Part II)
Here you will learn:

- The one investment Dreman is buying, yet 99% of the world would consider “crazy”
- The sector which should be good for a “double or triple”
- Why you should be using “Shotgun” style investing now more than ever
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=44 Financial 2009-02-21
To The Savers Go the Spoils
During the peak over the past couple of years a lot of records were made.

For instance, CEOs booking eight and nine figure paydays. The average bonus at Goldman Sachs passing $600,000. Thousands of part-time real estate flippers getting rich a bit too easily.

There were lots of them.

But a lot of that money was spent – err – squandered. It wasn’t saved. The smart money was saving. In fact, many of the world’s greatest investors were gladly selling out to the herd when things were getting a bit too crazy. Others were just waiting everyone out...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=45 Financial 2009-02-19
Searching for a Silver Lining When people are frightened, they cut their time horizon dramatically, ... Even advisors will say to sell because they see portfolios crumble and they fear people will have nothing left. It's really not rational, but it does happen.

That’s what David Dreman wrote in his book Contrarian Investment Strategies. Now, almost 30 years later, it’s looking like it’s happening all over again.

People are getting frightened they’ll have nothing left.

Portfolios are crumbling.

And the market’s main focus is on what the latest government plan will look like when it’s revealed later this week (talk about dramatically shortened time horizons).

But hey, this was expected. We knew the stimulus plan wasn’t worth much. And frankly, hopes to a government orchestrated solution having any impact in a few months time were just irrational. But this is just what we’ve been waiting for...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=46 Financial 2009-02-17
A Frank Discussion About What Could Destroy Your Wealth -Andrew, is oil going up or down now? Should I sell my oil ETF?

-I don’t know. How much were you looking to make and what’s your time frame?

-I was looking for a 10% pop over the next few days and I’m down 18% now. Wait let me pull up a…now I’m down 19%.

-So…you were willing to risk 19% or more to make 10%?

-Uhhh….I guess so.

-Yes, you should sell now. Sell everything. And with rationale like that, NEVER trade again.

-That’s a real conversation I had with a friend a few weeks back...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=47 Financial 2009-02-14
The Final Hurdle for Gold May Have Been Passed Bloomberg declares, -Gold Soars to Highest Since July.

A Wall Street Journal headline proclaims, -Gold is Flirting with $1,000, Again; ‘There’s No Sign of the Market Tiring.

Yesterday gold surged another $30 an ounce surpassing $930. And the mainstream media is getting on board in a big way.

Now, we can debate all day whether this is the time gold runs back to $1,000 and beyond. Or whether this is just another short-lived bounce which could run out of steam at any moment. Frankly, the exceptional volatility of the gold market has taught me only time will tell.

What I can tell you is that there has recently been a change in gold – at least the perception of gold. A dramatic change. One that could set gold and gold stocks on a long march higher. Yet, the mainstream media have completely glossed over it. Let me explain...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=48 Financial 2009-02-12
Great Problems and Great Fortunes Peak oil, my a**. I’ve got hundreds of millions of barrels of the stuff in the Gulf [of Mexico]. We know where the oil is…we just can’t get to it. I can’t even get a contractor that can do the work to take my call.

That’s what an oil company executive told me (with a Texas drawl and an arm around my shoulder for balance) a little over three years ago.

At the time oil was $60. There was no telling how high it could go. The aged scotch was flowing in celebration of good times - and even better times to come.

The conference was in New York City, but a few hundred oilmen from across the country came to celebrate, swap stories, and complain. About 9 out of 10 people in the room were wearing a three-piece suit and cowboy boot combination. Your editor was just another face in the crowd. But I was a face with a lot of questions and looking for a lot of answers...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=49 Financial 2009-02-10
Age of Innovation, Depression, and Opportunity
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, said, We should agree as a world on a monetary and fiscal stimulus that will take the world out of r... depression.

GE’s CEO alluded to a potential depression when he said, Once you break through '74-'75, you don't stop 'til you get to 1929.

Bill Gross, the Bond King, said, The U.S. may slump into a ‘mini depression’ unless policy makers spend trillions of dollars to spur growth. I guess a recession isn’t even much of a hope anymore. Come to think of it, I haven’t heard -soft landing- in months...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=50 Financial 2009-02-07
Investors Made 566% the Last Time This Happened
In 1968, the family fortune was handed over to Sid. Once at the helm, Sid hired Richard, one of his old college buddies, away from Goldman Sachs to help him invest the family’s fortune...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=51 Financial 2009-02-05
What the Really Smart Money is Buying I think it was Benjamin Franklin who said, -- This, too, shall pass.-- I think the same applies now…this, too, shall pass.

That’s what David Dreman told me last Friday.

We talked about an hour after the markets closed. At the time, a Reuters headline proclaimed, Worst January Ever for Dow, S&P 500. The Dow sat at 8,000.

It was a pretty brutal week for the markets. But here’s the thing, Dreman didn’t seem too worried. I’d even go as far to say he was upbeat.

Why wasn’t Dreman too worried?

You see, he’s the contrarian’s contrarian...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=52 Financial 2009-02-03
Staying One Step Ahead of the Obama Stimulus MICKEY!

Yes, sir?

Why are all these coats in a pile? What is this mess? How tough is it to build a coat rack? Fix it!

We just threw our coats in the corner. We’ve been putting them there for months. We thought nothing of it. That’s just where our coats went.

That all changed one rainy day when our commander stopped by and went crazy over a few of our coats lying in the corner while they dried. I thought the reaction was a bit extreme, but I guess that’s just the way things were. Anyways, how hard could it be to build something to hang our coats on?

Well…I was about to learn – the hard way. But what I learned while making this coat rack will help us make some pretty good gains in infrastructure stocks over the next few months.
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=53 Financial 2009-01-31
6 Mistakes You Must Avoid in 2009
Seven months ago I had a chance to attend a presentation by investment manager David Burrows. You’re not going to find his name in the Wall Street Journal or a quote in a Bloomberg news article, but that doesn’t mean he’s not worth listening to. He is.

Burrows is the chief investment strategist of Barometer Capital, a mid-sized asset management company with about $900 million under management. It’s not the amount of money Burrows manages that’s important, it’s how he manages it. And if we pay close attention, we can learn a lot (or at least get a timely reminder)...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=54 Financial 2009-01-29
Companies Thriving in the Great Disruption
As we looked at in last Thursday’s Prosperity Dispatch, there's opportunity in every downturn. There will be winners and losers. The winners will have greater market share. There's just going to be a lot fewer winners. It has always been the survival of the fittest in the business world. Economic downturns just speed up the process - it’s Accelerated Darwinism.

Scott Anthony calls the current period the "Great Disruption." He predicts...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=55 Financial 2009-01-27
Exclusive Interview: The Holy Grail of Stem Cells (part I)
In the next few moments you’ll learn:

1. What is the “Holy Grail” of the stem cell industry?
2. The timeline – We know it’s coming. how long will it take to get there?
3. How demand for the “Picks & Shovels” is soaring.
4. The ultimate end game of the stem cell revolution.
5. Which countries are leading the way in stem cell research.
6. How regulatory changes will help some companies and hurt others.

All that and more revealed here...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=56 Financial 2009-01-25
Exclusive Interview: The Holy Grail of Stem Cells (Part II) ]]> http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=57 Financial 2009-01-25 Banking 60% on the Day the World Changed
That’s what a friend of mine told me a few months back. He saw some of the research we were doing on the silently emerging boom in stem cells and wanted to let me know how stem cell research had already yielded something very special for his family.

It was just one example of what was coming in the stem cells. Of course, stem cell research is still in its early stages of life. It’s been going on for 40 years and we’ve learned a lot, but it’s been mired in adolescence over the last few years. There are still a lot of bugs to work out and there’s no telling how long it will take.

All that may have changed today…
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=58 Financial 2009-01-24
Turn Downturn into Opportunity Like a Billionaire

Of course you do. Who doesn’t? It’s the car that put America on wheels. It was the product of some of the greatest manufacturing innovations. It changed the world.

Do you know what a DA Master is?

Unless you’re a classic car fan, probably not. It’s one of America’s many forgotten cars. However, the story of the DA Master can teach us a lot right now. One of the most important lessons is how to invest successfully when the economy looks downright depressing...

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=59 Financial 2009-01-22
Jim Rogers Says Buy These
That sounds easy enough, right? Just find unimpaired companies, buy them, and wait. In essence, there couldn’t be better advice right now.

Of course, the question then is, When should I buy unimpaired assets and businesses?

For instance, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is going to be a mainstay on the Internet for years to come. Its market share is growing and its competition is fading...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=60 Financial 2009-01-20
Prospects for an Oil Recovery
The news show’s investigative team naturally delved into the personal story of how a small-town heating oil company can’t predict the oil prices. Although I’m sure they left out his solution of charging a very high premium to his customers to ensure he doesn’t get left holding the bag.

And, of course, it included the hapless government regulator whose hands were tied because of lobbying efforts. Even Enron was brought up as a scapegoat (hint: if anything ever goes wrong in the energy markets, no one is going to stand up and defend Enron).

So the answer they arrived at was...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=61 Financial 2009-01-16
Kicking Off the Panic of 2009 Sir, there are no seats left. You’re going to have to stand in the back.

I was only 10 minutes late, but the conference hall was packed. Every seat was taken. The walls were lined with people.

At that point, I knew without a doubt, there was a lot more downside left in real estate.

Reincarnation of Tom Vu

Last week, I went to one of those Invest in real estate: become a millionaire type of seminars.

You know the ones. They show you all the tricks to making big money, the easy way.

It was like witnessing the meteoric rise (and inevitable fall) of Tom Vu all over again...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=62 Financial 2009-01-15
Good Things Come to Those Who “Weight”
It’s not very easy though.

It’s easy to get caught up in the euphoria of a peak. It’s easy to miss all the warning signs. It’s easy to give back all your gains at the end of it all.

There is a way, however to tell when a bubble is forming, which sector it’s forming in, and when it will soon be time to get out. Today we’ll take a quick look at how they form, where the next bubble is forming (The end of the bubble era, as many predict, is not dead – a topic for a different day though), and one screaming indicator the end is nearing and to get prepared...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=63 Financial 2009-01-13
Prosperity Dispatch: Reader's Q&A
It hasn’t all been a one-sided conversation though. Many of you have sent in responses to articles, including questions, comments and critiques. If you’re wondering why you haven’t received a detailed response, let me explain.

Technically, I am precluded from giving away personalized financial advice for many reasons. But I can address each response that I receive. So, I will be publishing Q&A sessions like this every now and then. So feel free to drop us a note with a question or comment. You can send it to...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=64 Financial 2009-01-11
Gold, Viagra, and Emerging Markets: Harry S. Dent on 2009 and Beyond (Part II)
We’ve entered an unprecedented period of uncertainty. The markets have collapsed and $30 trillion of stock market wealth has evaporated.

The future could be filled with even more. There are a lot of unanswered questions.

Real estate, gold, stocks...what’s a safe haven? Is this a correction which will get sorted out soon or will it take much longer? Any life in China and India? Inflation or deflation? Is this the end of the financial world as we know it?

Q1 Publishing’s Andrew Mickey recently sat down with Harry S. Dent of the HS Dent Foundation to discuss some of these all important big picture questions...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=65 Financial 2009-01-09
Gold, Viagra, and Emerging Markets: Harry S. Dent on 2009 and Beyond (Part I) "This level of stimulus is at the point that it's like taking a bottle of Viagra and nothing happens" - Harry S. Dent

We've entered an unprecedented period of uncertainty. The markets have collapsed and $30 trillion of stock market wealth has evaporated.

The future could be filled with even more. There are a lot of unanswered questions.

Real estate, gold, stocks...what's a safe haven? Is this a correction which will get sorted out soon or will it take much longer? Any life in China and India? Inflation or deflation? Is this the end of the financial world as we know it?

Q1 Publishing's Andrew Mickey recently sat down with Harry S. Dent of the HS Dent Foundation to discuss some of these all important big picture questions...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=66 Financial 2009-01-09
The One Question You Need to Ask Before Buying Any Stock Now
Too often this basic principle of investing is forgotten. Lately, it's been too easy to forget. The recent market volatility can drive the market value of a business up or down 10% in a day makes it tough to think of owning stocks as owning part of a business. At the end of the day though, what you're buying is part of a business.

That's why I'm encouraging every investor to ask themselves before they invest in a company is...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=67 Financial 2009-01-08
Warning: Hope, Hype, and the Herd "...most investors tend to project near-term trends - both favorable and adverse indefinitely into the future."

That's what value investor Seth Klarman told a group of investors last February. Klarman portfolio manager and co-founder of the Baupost Group where he has averaged just under a 20% annual return for 25 years. So when Klarman talks, I pay attention.

But hey, this bit of wisdom was from a speech back in February. That's ancient history for Wall Street and the masters of the universe apparently already forgot Klarman's sage advice...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=68 Financial 2009-01-06
2009's Trade of the Year
Don't get me wrong, I wish the markets would go up forever and we all could be rich and never have to worry about a thing. Realistically, that just isn't going to happen. Those of us prepared for what is ahead, however, realize its times like these when genuine opportunity is created.

In that spirit, I'd like to reveal the Trade of Year...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=69 Financial 2009-01-03
Looking Ahead
Now, more than ever, it's time to look ahead. The next year promises to be more exciting than ever. And the opportunistic few who are willing to make it through all this will be well rewarded.

Right now, it seems like nothing could go right next year. The economy is worsening, states and local governments will be ratcheting up taxes, and we'll likely see the biggest bailout yet for state and local governments.

There's not much to get excited about. But if you look hard enough, there are some positive signs out there...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=70 Financial 2009-01-01
You Should Be Getting Excited About 2009
Housing prices continue to drop. Commercial real estate prices are catching up fast. State budgets are facing deep deficits and a couple of them (Michigan for sure) are headed for bankruptcy. Retailers are cannibalizing each other by slashing prices just to get any sales at all (ain’t capitalism grand – if you’re prepared?).

To top it all off, the next round of unemployment data...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=160 Financial 2008-12-30
A Holiday Message
Looking back, the past year has been a lot of things…painful, stressful, and, if nothing else, interesting. And that’s just the financial markets.

So, I’d like to pass on a quick thank you...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=159 Financial 2008-12-25
The Best 3 Ways to Give the Gift of Prosperity
Kiplinger’s calls them the gift you buy for a newborn niece or nephew.

Bankrate.com says they’re the gift that keeps on giving.

The U.S. Treasury calls them a gift for any occasion.

I guess that’s a big part of why 55 million Americans now own them. That’s more than one in six Americans.

I’m talking about...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=158 Financial 2008-12-23
Cashing in on Desperation
That’s what Nick Calamos recently said about convertible bonds.

And who better to know we’re looking at a very rare opportunity in convertible bonds?

Calamos is Co Chief Investment Officer of Calamos Investments which manages about $23.8 billion in assets with a big chunk of them in convertible bonds. The New York Times calls Calamos...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=157 Financial 2008-12-20
OPEC: Too Little, Too Late
Higher [oil] prices induced consumers to economize and other producers to step up output…In order to keep prices up, the Arabs would have to curtail their output to zero…Well before that point the cartel would collapse.

Jump ahead 24 years and we’re going through it all over again.

A few days ago OPEC’s president warned...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=156 Financial 2008-12-18
These Assets Havent's Been This Cheap Since 1932 Stocks are pricing in a recession, and bonds are priced for a depression.”

That’s what Bill Gross, Managing Director of PIMCO and the world’s “Bond King,” has been telling anyone who would listen for months now.

Stocks are cheap, but bonds are at irresistibly cheap levels. If you’re looking to buy low, sell high and collect 9% or 10% interest in between, corporate bonds are definitely worth a look right now.

The past year has been painful. Two million jobs have been lost, trillions of dollars in paper wealth has evaporated, the U.S. dollar is just off multi-year highs (showing its first signs of cracking though), and hurting exports…I could go on and on...

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=155 Financial 2008-12-16
Will 2009 Be Even Scarier
My how the world has changed?

A year ago, the bulls were off and running. Many were buying on the dip. Commodity prices were soaring. Farmers were making a killing. Emerging markets consumers couldn’t get enough of anything.

It seemed like the boom would never end. Any talk of a full scale global depression or 50% decline in the Dow would have been laughed off. This year, it’s a totally different story. The bears are out in force and the leading opinion-makers in the investment community couldn’t be more...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=154 Financial 2008-12-13
When Rewards Outweigh Risks
Right now, everyone is absolutely afraid of risk. Yesterday, the bond market went upside-down again. Investors were buying up the “safest” assets in the world as fast as they could. At one point in the day, T-bills were yielding less than zero...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=153 Financial 2008-12-10
History Shows It's Time to Buy
The commodity bubble was bursting, hedge funds were imploding, and it seemed like the selling would never stop. To add fuel to the fire, unemployment was getting worse, consumers started saving again (seemingly all at the same time, which isn’t very helpful), and practically every week another bank failed.

It was disastrous. The government was handing out cash to banks and guaranteeing private companies’ commercial paper while putting trillions of dollars it doesn’t have at risk. It seemed like a depression wasn’t out of the question. But all that’s starting to change...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=152 Financial 2008-12-09
How to Buy Gold Stocks for Free
Investing successfully is like becoming successful at most everything else. It takes a good bit of time and a willingness to learn. It takes a good bit of humility…if not, you’re going to learn a bit of humility. Basically, it’s not easy.

Over time though, achieving financial independence in exchange for riding out the ups and downs, buying when no one else is willing to, and taking the time and exercising patience is truly worth it...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=217 Financial 2008-12-06
Is Now The Time to Buy Gold?
$1,500 an ounce…$2,000…$3,000 – they would say.

The gold bulls were getting very aggressive. Some even...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=151 Financial 2008-12-04
A Slippery Slope Ahead for Oil
Schlesinger should know. In the 70’s he closely watched the Middle East as the U.S. Secretary of Defense. Then he would move onto become the first U.S. Secretary of Energy when oil prices were really starting to move...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=150 Financial 2008-12-02
A Legend Speaks
You won’t see him on TV or writing an editorial piece for a major newspaper. Most retail investors have never heard of him, but he has one of the best long-term track records of any investment manager in the world...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=149 Financial 2008-11-29
Unprecedented Bright Spot in Market Downturn
In the past 25 years there has been 50 days when the market moved up or down four percent. That seems like an average trading day now. It should. Half of those 50 moves occurred in the past two months. That’s right, 25 years of volatility was...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=148 Financial 2008-11-26
Why Contrarians are Itching to Buy Stocks - But Should Not
It wasn’t long ago we waded through the panic stricken days when a currency crisis enveloped the Asian Tigers. Then Russia’s debt default spooked global markets again. Then the tech bubble burst.

You could put all of those “crises” together and they still wouldn’t compare to what the markets have gone through in just the past few months...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=147 Financial 2008-11-25
Investing in a Rapidly Changing World
Despite all the doom and gloom, as I look outside my office, there’s a lot going on. Road workers still have the street closed down as they repave it. People are still shopping. The restaurants are just as active as they were a year ago. It appears no one is saving every penny in case the world enters a prolonged depression. But I do notice some changes that must happen as part of a new reality we face.

This type of overcrowding cannot and will not last through a prolonged downturn. Ensure you are prepared by...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=145 Financial 2008-11-22
The Next Boom Emerges
There’s almost no refuge where you can get a decent return. Earlier this week, the average interest rate for a one year bank CD was 3.36%, the average money market account yielded below 3%, and 1-year treasury bonds were yielding less than 1%.

Sometimes it seems like there are no good investments to make right now. Rest assured though, new bull markets are born from the bodies of dead ones. It is never different this time (just look at oil). And that is why it is more important now to start looking ahead. This is where to start looking...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=146 Financial 2008-11-22
Profiting From Bailout Nation
General Electric (NYSE:GE) is about to come a bank with access to the Fed’s free money. American Express (NYSE:AXP) anticipates such rough times ahead, it plans to become a bank with access to the Federal Reserve’s deep pockets as well.

Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW), and Textron (NYSE:TXT) asked for the Fed to fund their ongoing operations by buying their second-tier commercial paper.

Even city governments are throwing their hats into the ring. Philadelphia and Atlanta asked for multi-billion dollar bailouts as well.

It seems like everyone wants a handout. But here's how you can take advantage...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=144 Financial 2008-11-18
The Future of Oil "Now is a good time to buy."

That’s what R.S. Sharma, the chairman of India’s national oil exploration company ONGC, said last week.

Sharma added, "The world financial crisis and slumping oil prices have made energy assets more attractive. Is he right?"

Well, yes and no. It’s a good time to buy oil. But a great time is likely right around the corner...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=143 Financial 2008-11-15
China's $585 Billion Renovation
The official Chinese GDP growth rate plummeted 30% in the last quarter. Independent data coming out of the manufacturing sector, however, suggests a much sharper decline. Chinese stocks have surging up and down, just as they have in the U.S. There are ways to profit from this global market volatility. Certainly China presents a unique set of opportunities.

The fact is, the Chinese have been running surpluses for 20 years. They hold about $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and they’re about to start spending it in a big way.

Earlier this week, China announced a $585 billion stimulus package to get its economy back on track.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=142 Financial 2008-11-13
Investors Should Fear This Payday
Under this theory, government regulation is an evil which distorts the market and dilutes the purity of the relationship between the consumer and producer.

As we’ve been reminded recently, a free market economy also has its downside.

In hindsight, lending money to low-income home owners with “teaser rates” that triple 18 months into the contract maybe wasn’t the greatest idea.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=141 Financial 2008-11-11
Renegade Trader Makes $1.7 Billion in Bear Market
If Taleb’s name sounds familiar that’s because his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, spent 17 weeks on the New York Times Bestseller list.

Universa was launched in December 2007 with $300 million in assets. It is now estimated to be worth close to $2 billion. Technically Taleb is an “external advisor” to Universa, which is managed and owned by former professional trader Mark Spitznagel.

How did Universa Investments gain 115% in the vortex of the worst bear market in two decades?]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=140 Financial 2008-11-07
The Real Story Behind China's Manufacturing Crisis We’re pretty much dead now. We cannot pay our workers’ salaries. We are about to be bankrupt.

- Mao Youming, Factory Owner, Shaoxing, China Oct 30, 2008

The Chinese government claims that their annualized GDP grew by 9% between July and September.

Mainstream media outlets like are parroting the cheery party line despite an avalanche of data from the manufacturing sector that suggests the Chinese economy is faltering and on the brink of collapse.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=139 Financial 2008-11-06
Another Man's $52 Billion Treasure
- Town Administrator, Fox Township Pennsylvania

It’s tough to imagine in this economic climate, but some small towns are getting rich.

That may be a surprise. After all, dozens of state and local governments are broke and on the verge of being downgraded to junk status. State pension funds have been decimated. A few pundits have even predicted state and local governments’ debt loads may trigger another phase in the credit crisis.

But some have more cash than ever by...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=138 Financial 2008-11-04
Petro Dollar Shopping Spree Starts Now
History indicates that there will be plenty of rallies as we bounce across the bottom. After all, the stock market is a self correcting system. When prices get low enough, people will start buying. And when they start buying, prices will move up.

However, there’s a new wrinkle this time around...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=137 Financial 2008-10-31
Red Friday: Coming to a Mall Near You
As someone who has lived outside of the United States for a big part of my life, I can easily say there is nothing more American than the rampant consumerism following Thanksgiving Day.

It’s Black Friday and retailers celebrate the part of the year when the real profits are made. But this year Black Friday has all the potential of pushing retailers deeper into the red.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=136 Financial 2008-10-30
5 Signs of a Market Bottom We’ve hit bottom!

Pundits around the world have signaled “All Clear” and it’s time to go all in, right?


We’ve been avoiding calling a bottom here at Q1 Publishing for months now.

However, that could be about to change. Four of our five bottom indicators are turning bullish and we’re just waiting for one more.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=135 Financial 2008-10-28
Don't Buy Into Stock Buybacks Bull Market - A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius. – Anonymous

The bull market is over and the days when everyone was an expert are gone. Merely buying a stock and watching it go up day after day is history. “Buy and hope” is dead. But that doesn’t mean you can’t make money and get your portfolio back in shape. You can. You just have to separate the fact from fiction. And one of the most dangerous myths that could cost you even more money is that share buybacks are good.

You see, the world is not coming to an end. The economy will recover…eventually. A new bubble will form. And greed will replace fear. It always does.

And here’s the best part, a few companies will emerge stronger than they were before. The trick is to identify which ones will make the best of a bad situation.

This is a time when great companies increase their market share. The strong get stronger and well…the weak disappear. You can tell the difference by...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=134 Financial 2008-10-26
Supersized Survivors Defy Economic Gloom
Lynn owns and operates a McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) in small town of Greer, South Carolina. According to the Greenville news, [Lynn] hired 65 people to work at her new store, and may be looking to hire about 10 more as business picks up during the holidays.

McDonald’s is an extremely resilient business. It has already survived the Italian based slow food movement and the Oscar-nominated documentary Super Size Me which showed the filmmaker gaining 30 pounds and developing toxic shock after eating nothing but McDonald’s food for a month.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=133 Financial 2008-10-22
California Economy Sends Warning Signal
We are all living in the shadow of a gigantic question mark. What is happening to the global economy? Are we slipping into a recession? How bad will it be? Millions of Americans are asking: Will we lose our homes? Our dignity? Our ability to feed our children?

The fact is, nobody knows what is going to happen. In fact, most people aren’t exactly sure what is happening. Except that all the charts are pointing down.

Last week, I talked to a London-based investment banker who is convinced that that many senior bank officials do not understand their own “financial instruments”. Not just why they failed, by how they worked in the first place.

When the big picture is so cloudy, financial pundits look for smaller pictures to bring into focus. One popular obsession is trying to “call the bottom”. In other words trying to predict when stocks - as a group – will reverse their descent and begin going up (and yes this will eventually happen).

“The bottom” will come when we get the first signal that better economic times are ahead. Some financial analysts think we are there now. Others think we’ll get there in Q3, 2009. Like I said, no one knows.

As it turns out, the key to identifying the bottom this time around will be...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=132 Financial 2008-10-21
Timber! Look Who's Loading up on Lumber
By now it all seems so obvious. All the warning signs were there. The “Bad Credit, No Problem” slogan at car dealerships, banks’ no-standard lending practices, etc. We all knew the good times had to come to an end; it was only a matter of when.

That “when” is now and the good times have come to a fairly quick end. A sustained bear market has set in, banks are afraid to even lend to each other, and a harsh recession that I don’t believe the “recessionless” generation is prepared for is on the horizon.

Regretfully, a lot of investors weren’t prepared. One man was not only prepared, he made a killing in this downturn. Now, he’s taking his winnings from a big bet on risky loans going bad and pouring the cash into timber land at rock bottom prices. I know what you’re thinking…“Trees…now!?!”

That’s right. I’ll explain...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=131 Financial 2008-10-18
Where the Safe Money is Going
One thing is for sure, people are sick of losing money. In the current climate, many investors have given up trying to make their capital grow. They are solely focussed on keeping it safe. As it turns out, spooked investors are taking the notion of “safe” literally.

SentrySafe, the nation's top safe manufacturer, reported that sales have surged 50 percent in the past three weeks. Home Depot reported a big spike in the sales of safes and some stores are running low.

“People are looking to gain control,” explains Doug Brush, SentrySafe's business manager, “They are bringing things that are valuable and important to them home.

The paranoia isn’t just about the markets and the financial institutions anymore.

Some high-end safe buyers have requested 2 a.m. deliveries to keep neighbors (or domestic staff?) from knowing that their homes are storage facilities for gold and cash.

But money will only stay hidden so long. When the storm passes money will return to the markets. Once we get the first whiff of an upturn in the economy (which could be a year or so away) the markets will slowly come back to life some will surely head into...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=130 Financial 2008-10-16
Stock Market Rally: 3 Reasons Why it Won't Last
Will it last? Is it time to buy?

It’s a tough time to be an investor. Frankly, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market despite yesterday’s rally.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is a good indicator of the level of fear in the markets, still sits well above its previous decade highs.

On top of that, closed-end funds tell an equally bearish story. A closed-end fund trades like a stock and holds a group of securities that are tough for individual investors to buy. For instance, some hold distressed debt, municipal debt, or China’s “A” shares which only Chinese citizens are able to buy. They will also trade at a premium or discount to relative shares.

Almost every closed-end fund is selling at a very steep discount to Net Asset Value. There are about 654 closed-end funds traded on major exchanges. As of Friday, 636 of them are selling at a discount. Only 18 are fetching a premium.

I've got to warn you, we haven't hit bottom yet because...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=129 Financial 2008-10-14
How to Take Advantage of a Bull Market in Volatility
That was what one of my brokers e-mailed on September 29th.

The “VIX” is the nickname for the CBOE Volatility Index. It’s often called the Fear Index. In the past, it has been a good indicator of when fear has peaked.

The VIX tracks the amount of premium someone is willing to pay for S&P 500 option contracts. It is a basically a measure what it costs to insure against a market collapse. It’s basically the cost of portfolio insurance.

When the index hit the mid-40’s in 2003, it was the bottom. When it surged to the mid-50’s (the previous all-time high) in 1998 when Russia defaulted on its debt, it was a fantastic time to buy. So this time, when it hitting new 5-year highs in late September, a lot of hopeful people were expecting a bottom.

Those who did probably didn’t fare too well. Since it hit 46 in late September, the Dow has fallen more than 2000 points, an additional $2 trillion dollars of wealth was wiped away, and a lot of stocks have fallen even more. Take advantage of it all by simply...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=128 Financial 2008-10-11
Markets R.I.P: The Great Unwind Pensions & Investments magazine warn, “Bloodbath Ahead.”

Reuters predicts, “D-Day for Hedge Funds as Redemptions Roll In.”

CNN cautions, “Hedge Fund Blues are Just Beginning.”

The markets sit perilously on the edge of disaster. A downward spiral is getting stronger and there’s not much that can be done about it. And one of the leading has been and will be hedge funds.

Frankly, the consequences can be dire if you’re holding the same stocks as the funds. The news isn’t all bad. As you’ll see in a few moments, the mass sell-off will create a few stellar short-term and long-term opportunities in...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=127 Financial 2008-10-09
5 Market Myths Destroying Your Portfolio
All the recent volatility is causing massive sell-offs forcing share prices into a dangerous downward spiral.

Half of the stocks on the NYSE set a new 52-week low yesterday. The NASDAQ is almost in as bad a shape. And anything with a market cap of less than a $1 billion…you don’t even want to look at it.

As we watched a few weeks ago, all of the uncertainty is causing investors to pull out of mutual funds as fast as they can. Last week more than $7 billion was pulled out from equity mutual funds according to AMG Data services. And an additional $2.6 billion was redeemed from bond funds.

The sell-off was on top of an absolutely horrible July when investors yanked out more than $23 billion. August wasn’t much better when about $6 billion was pulled out.

It’s getting ugly. Mutual fund flows are a key indicator of sentiment. And right now, investor sentiment is at a precariously low point.

The worst part of it all, I’m afraid, is too many investors are succumbing to...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=126 Financial 2008-10-07
How Argentina Survived It's Banking Collapse
- Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, President of Argentina

Last night I had dinner with an Argentine businessman at a small restaurant in downtown Buenos Aires. He’s involved in the development of shopping centers here in Buenos Aires.

I mentioned to him that I’d purchased a local newspaper earlier in the day at the Plaza de Mayo. An image of a jumbo jet made of U.S. dollar bills took up almost the entire cover.

I’d assumed it was about the U.S banking crisis. But after laboriously translating the headline and the first few paragraphs I discovered...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=125 Financial 2008-10-04
Escape to South America Uncovers Opportunities
It can be hard to think straight in the midst of so much hysteria.

The Dow has had a rough year, but emerging markets have been hit far harder. Once-hot South American markets have taken an even worse beating.

The markets are certainly following the old adage, “When the U.S. sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold.”

The world has changed a lot though and we have to ask ourselves, “Is the adage still true?”

There’s only one way to find out...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=124 Financial 2008-10-02
The Bull Market No One is Talking About
I’m not going to harp on the bad news again, I’m sure you’ve heard it all by now. That’s because opportunity is knocking right now.

I will say the bailout plan, or some form of it, will be formalized and approved. Too many politicians have too much riding on it. And then all will go back to normal…for a few days.

We could even get a nice bounce in the markets following the new (and therefore better?) bailout plan that eventually gets approved. If by some miracle the door is slammed shut on banking problems by a swipe of the pen, the next door will open. I’m afraid, what is behind the next door is a lot uglier: the economy.

That’s what really matters here. The economy…it’s always the economy.

When bailout euphoria hit the markets a few weeks ago, we focused on what matters most. Although the U.S. is technically not in a recession yet, we’re headed for one. The looming recession is reducing demand for everything, profits are getting squeezed, and some very smart money is quietly buying some highly undervalued stocks. And we can buy right along with them...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=123 Financial 2008-09-30
Why Warren Buffett is Betting on Banks Now Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) this week.

Is it time to follow Buffett’s lead and go “all in” on banks now?

The answer is a simple no.

Buffett got a very sweet deal from Goldman that has reduced his risk, gave him a high degree of income, and didn’t eliminate a single cent of the potential profits from the deal. And there’s a little known way we get all that in our investments too. Here's how...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=122 Financial 2008-09-27
How to Profit From the $700 Billion Dollar Bailout
The Bush Administration attempted to muscle the bailout package through congress with a panicky threat, reminiscent of the build-up to the Iraq War: “Do this now or something terrible will happen!”

Once bitten, twice shy - Congress is taking a few days to mull over its options. Headlines from the business pages trace the outline of the general response: “Congress Condemns Bail-out,”“FBI Investigates Companies at Heart of Meltdown,” and “US Lawmakers Express Anger,” etc..]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=121 Financial 2008-09-24
The Only Certainty in an Uncertain Market
Sure, the Dow climbed 700 points in two days to close out last week, most bank stocks roared back to life, and we’ve got a $700 billion commitment from the government, but there are so many questions left to answer.

Will the government buy all the bad loans off the banks? At what price will they pay for them? Who’s going to run this operation? How long will it take to get a bill through Congress? Is $700 billion enough?

The biggest question of all is: when will the U.S. economy recover? For investors, that is the key. Even if we make it through this immediate banking crisis, the U.S. is still headed toward recession.

We can be certain that uncertainty is domiting the markets,and we can turn all that uncertainty into our own opportunity by...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=120 Financial 2008-09-23
The Best Way to Cope With a Wild Market
Yesterday two colleagues told me how they are coping with a bear market. I’ll tell you what they’re doing. And then we’ll go over the single best strategy to use now to cope with a bear market.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=119 Financial 2008-09-20
How the Smart Get Richer
So a few eyebrows were raised when a Massachusetts fund recently announced it posted an 8.6% return over the past twelve months. Hours away from Wall Street, this fund masterfully uses a basic investment strategy that many of us have forgotten about.

This fund has trounced the returns of all-star money managers over the same period, beating most of the greats including Warren Buffett, Ken Heebner, Bill Miller, Bruce Berkowitz, Marty Whitman, and T. Boone Pickens...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=118 Financial 2008-09-17
What to do During a Market Adjustment

What on earth is a financial market “adjustment?”

Despite the sugar-coating, President Bush did get one thing right, Americans are concerned. More like afraid. Fear has taken over the markets. And I’ve got to tell you, I’m loving every second of it, and you should be...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=117 Financial 2008-09-15
An Ocean of Opportunity in Water
Approximately 40% of the world population lacks adequate fresh water. In the next decade an estimated $800 billion is going to be spent globally to bring fresh water to those who don’t have it. With that kind of money flowing into a sector, you can bet now is a time to start paying attention to water.

Water stress is severe in China, India, and Africa and it’s is also rising in developed nations. Sure there are infrastructure issues, but one of the biggest problems is simply a lack of water. Most of the earth’s surface is water, but less than 3% is drinkable.

The world’s freshwater resources are not sufficient to keep up with demand. As the world population grows and water tables decline, a solution has to be developed. Right now, that solution is...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=116 Financial 2008-09-12
Expiring Patenst Ignite Biotech Boom
The U.S. Government stepped in and assigned Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) a value of zero through governmental decree.

Even a cutback in oil production from OPEC can’t stop oil prices from falling. Gold, silver, and fertilizer stocks are falling too. Even Brazil’s stock market, the top-performing BRIC nation of 2008, is starting to fall.

It’s bad out there for most industries. But there’s no sector worse off than the pharmaceutical sector. Big Pharma stocks like Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Merck (NYSE:MRK), and Glaxosmithkline (NYSE:GSK) are having a rough time and it looks like more stormy weather ahead. And these companies are giants headed for a fall.
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=115 Financial 2008-09-10
Which Candidate is Best for Your Portfolio?
The financial crisis continues to unravel in the United States. Every financial commentator is talking up the U.S. government’s list of more than 100 “problem banks.”

Fears of another Asian financial crisis are gaining steam. The Thai baht, the Russian ruble, and the Chinese yuan are all well off their highs and in a downtrend. Even commodities are getting rocked. Precious metal, oil, natural gas, and base metals are all in freefall.

Yet there are some surprises...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=114 Financial 2008-09-08
Rust Belt Revival: FROM DOOM TO BOOM
Gross Pointe was one of the highest rent neighborhoods in the country. It sits between Detroit and Lake St. Clair. Its wooded scenery, mild summer weather, and proximity to industrial areas have made it a popular residential neighborhood for industrial titans for a century.

The Pointes was one of the hottest real estate markets in the 1920’s. You had to have a mansion in Gross Pointe If you were an executive in Detroit’s booming auto industry.

Flash forward 90 years and we’ve got a completely different picture...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=113 Financial 2008-09-05
Forget Oil, This is China's Biggest Shortage
According to the UN, contaminated drinking water causes five times the number of child deaths than are caused by HIV/AIDS.

More than 300 million rural Chinese citizens lack access to clean drinking water. Sewage is often dumped into the fields creating a breeding ground for disease in rural China.

The World Bank estimates that health and environmental problems cost the Chinese about $50 billion a year...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=112 Financial 2008-09-03
Cameco Must Go Shopping, Her's How to Take Advantage
Governments have turned it into an art form.

At some time or another, every major organization is forced to release some bad news that they would like to hide.

But they can’t hide it. So they bury it.
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=111 Financial 2008-09-02
$450 Billion Industry Achieves 100% Global Penetration Bill Gates can’t live without his. Factory workers in Xiamen need it. Nomads on the Sahara desert fought wars over it.

It’s more important than oil.

It’s a $450 billion industry growing globally at a double-digit clip.

Investor attention in this sector is heating up, and it’s a good time to get in.

Yes, I’m talking about water...
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=110 Financial 2008-08-30
CIBC Report: "The Race is on to Ramp Up Capacity..." Buried deep in a recently released 70-page report, analysts at CIBC, Canada’s 4th largest bank, states:

"With the lack of announced greenfield projects needed to match growing demand in the next six to eight years, we believe the race is on to ramp up capacity, to take advantage of current potash prices of US$1,000/t or more."

CIBC goes on to detail the now all too familiar macro-fundamentals that have made potash into the top story so far in 2008. This is great news for Potash One (TSX:KCL), who were one of the earliest movers into potash...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=108 Financial 2008-08-28
The Last Time This Happened, Investors Made 5,973%
In 1998 the Russian financial crisis nearly put a stop to the runaway gains the Dow and Nasdaq scored almost every day. Russia ran out of money. Rock bottom oil, natural gas, metals and timber prices pushed the Russian economy to the brink of disaster. The country couldn’t make the interest payments on its debt. The whole world was about to foreclose on Russia. It was a complete disaster.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=107 Financial 2008-08-26
Recession Proof Industry Gains 27% in 2008 When the economy falls, the demand for escapist entertainment rises. History has proven this over and over again. During “The Great Depression” (1929 – 1939) 25% of American families had no income and 40% of factory workers were unemployed. In 1930 there were 200,000 evictions in New York City alone.

Despite this, movie box office receipts during the 1930s soared 22%.  In many cases people elected to see a movie, rather than eat.  That’s how desperately North Americans needed to escape (mentally) from the weight of their problems.

And if you think things are different now, think again...

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=106 Financial 2008-08-23
Commodites: Brief Correction or Bursting Bubble? “When investors cast aside the lessons of history, those lessons come back to haunt them.” – Martin Meyer, Markets
It’s a tough time to be an investor. A financial crisis and housing downturn in the United States has dragged down the markets. The world’s largest economy is headed straight for a recession. Meanwhile, inflation is rising in the U.S. and downright surging around the world.

Investors are very afraid right now. Over the medium term, however, the global economy is still strong. Copper, one of the best economic indicators, is still well above $3 and doesn’t show much weakness. The economy will recover. . It always does.
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=105 Financial 2008-08-21
How to Take Advantage of $7 Billion Scam
Those tech companies have watched their shares outperform the markets in recent months. It’s been a great place to be while the rest of the market is falling apart. Of course, cost-cutters are not the only tech sub-sector doing well right now.

There is another one: internet fraud prevention...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=104 Financial 2008-08-18
Tech Stocks Provide Safe Haven
A few commentators have started comparing the commodity correction to the tech crash of 2001. That’s an overstatement. The declines are not vertical and there will be a time to reinvest in commodities.

This time, the tech sector is not the villain. In fact it’s been the savior...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=103 Financial 2008-08-14
$450 Billion Industry Achieves 100% Global Penetration
It’s more important than oil.

It’s a $450 billion industry growing globally at a double-digit clip.

Investor attention in this sector is heating up, and it’s a good time to get in.

Yes, I’m talking about water...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=109 Financial 2008-08-13
Wrong Time to Bail Out Of Venzuela
Chavez has declared that the country “will favour national interests over foreign interests.”

Predictably, Crystallex (AMEX: KRY) sunk 14% on the news.

They have been developing the Las Cristinas Mine in the environmentally sensitive Imataca Forest. The property holds an estimated 17 million ounces of gold.

Every time Chavez opens his mouth, Crystallex shareholders get kicked in the gut...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=102 Financial 2008-08-11
The Majors Go Shopping - Who's Next?
In the last 24 months, many juniors have proved up their resources in a climate of soaring metal prices only to see their stock price chopped in half.

Junior Resource Explorers are now so cheap that if the retail investors don’t buy them, the majors will.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=101 Financial 2008-07-31
Why The Dow is Going to 8,000 and America is Still Great

“I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretence of taking care of them.” - Thomas Jefferson

When Miss USA collapsed to the floor during the Miss Universe Competition in Mexico last week - for the second year running - the symbolism was complete.

The beauty queen has lost her confidence and her grace... ]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=100 Financial 2008-07-24
Will Coal Stocks Get You Back in the Black?
Goldsource Mines Inc. (GXS: TSX-V) were searching for diamonds in Saskatchewan last May when they stumbled on a high quality coal seam and their stock soared 9,100% in 3 months.

The irony of a diamond exploration company striking it rich by discovering coal can hardly be overstated.

Supply shortages create opportunities for investors.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=98 Financial 2008-07-16
Follow the Big Money To Big Profits
This reminded me of the oft-repeated advice to investors to “Buy Low - Sell High”.

Materazzi knows that “being better” would be a good strategy - but easier said than done.

Retail investors (regular folks like you and me) want to “be better” and “buy low” – but unfortunately the majority of investors have difficulty doing this.

The most successful investors have disciplined themselves to think and act counter-intuitively, by positioning themselves in stocks that look weak (undervalued) and avoiding those that appear strong (over-valued).

What can investors do to change their psychology and profit from this simple formula that is so easy to understand, and yet so difficult to execute?

The answer to that question could - and does - fill volumes.

But there is one under-utilized strategy that will radically increase your chances of picking a winner.

Find out where the BIG money is and place your bets on them.]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=97 Financial 2008-06-11
Potash Makes Plants and Bank Accounts Grow
Potash is mined from deposits left behind when ancient sea beds evaporated. 95% of the world’s Potash supply is used in fertilizer. There is no commercial substitute. Surging global demand is being driven by macro-economic factors like global population growth, a decrease in arable land and increased consumption of meat in India and China.

Subprime mortgage fallout? A pull back on gold? Recession in the US? Not a concern for stakeholders in the Potash industry. As one wag put it: “As long as people are eating and having sex – Potash prices will continue rising.”
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=92 Financial 2008-04-26
About Q1 Publishing
The financial world is filled with a lot of “noise.” We will filter out 98% of it by getting on planes, talking to CEOs, touring factories, studying financial reports – and generally doing the trench work that you are too busy to do.

We will also detail the simple strategies used by world’s wealthiest and most successful investors on how to attain, maintain, and grow your wealth.

Q1 is dedicated to the idea that your portfolio should be working for you, not the other way around. In less than 20 minutes a week, we can give you the freedom to enjoy your life, without worrying about gyrations in the stock market...]]>
http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/viewcontent?&contentId=99 Financial 2008-04-25