Q1 Publishing Prosperity Dispatch

Debt Ceiling Done, What's Next?

2011-08-02

The debt ceiling deal is done and now it�s onto the next �crisis.�

The deal went down to the arbitrarily assigned deadline and, although details are still coming out, we know a few critical things already.

The key is these cuts aren�t really cuts at all.

The always discerning folks at the Cato Institute showed how deep these �cuts� really go in Budget Deal Doesn�t Cut Spending:

As you can see, the cuts are really just cuts in expected spending.

If you wanted to buy a $30,000 car and instead chose to buy a quality used care for $10,000, did you really save any money?

In the real world�no, of course you didn�t.

In Washington�that�s a savings.

The rest of the remaining details will come out over the next few weeks. And if you were expecting a bit of seriousness from Washington on spending, you will surely be disappointed.

But the market is already predicting how deep these cuts will really be. The defense budget, one of the few areas to really see cuts, shows the market isn�t buying the rhetoric. Shares of two top defense contractors, Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), are both down just over 4% today compared to the overall market decline of 3%. These two stocks would have been hit march harder if their #1 customer was really cutting back sharply.

But it is all passed. Now, for your portfolio�s sake, it�s time to look forward. So here�s what�s coming up, what it means for your money, and the moves to start making now to get prepared.

Forget the Debt Ceiling, This is the Real Debt Problem

2011-07-25

By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing

The last few weeks have brought weakening economic numbers, stellar earnings reports, political theatrics, record gold prices, and the first hint at a potential QE3.

All the �good� news has pushed the Dow back to just 10% below its all-time highs from October 2007.

In times like these, when fear of missing out outweighs fear of a market downturn, we have to reiterate this all will end badly.

But, it�s not likely to end badly soon. Here�s why it will last far longer than most expect and the warning signs to look for when the bubble-in-everything will start to deflate.

The Eventual Debt Limit Deal is Doomed to Fail

2011-07-11

The deadline to raise the debt limit is now just a few weeks away.

Both sides have completed their focus groups, refined the key words they want to endlessly repeat (i.e. �millionaires and billionaires� or �corporate jets�), and have staked out their positions.

The winner in this battle will be, as in most political compromises, no one.

The eventual debt limit deal is doomed to completely fail. Sure, it will provide some short-term relief. Maybe it will even reduce the pervasive and growth-sapping uncertainty holding back GDP growth. But any positive benefits will be short-lived.

Whether taxes are raised, two or three trillion dollars of spending is cut, or some combination thereof, the eventual debt limit deal will in hindsight be viewed as a total failure because it will have failed to bring spending in line with tax collections.

Investors realizing this now � at the height of the debate - have the chance to position themselves to safely sidestep the consequences.

Krill Oil Stocks: Krill Oil Boom Pushes Handful of Stocks to New Highs

2011-05-28

There�s a new type of oil that�s causing a major stir in the markets.

This oil boom has nothing to do with crude oil or energy though. But it still has the potential to be just as profitable.

I�m talking about krill oil.

Krill are tiny shrimp-like crustaceans. They are usually between one and five centimeters long. They are found in extremely cold water like the frigid waters of the northern Pacific and offshore Antarctica.

The tiny creatures produce a unique kind of oil that has proven to have numerous medicinal benefits.

Krill oil supplements have proven to reduce cholesterol, relieve arthritis pain, attention deficit disorder, and other chronic problems. And krill oil-based drugs in development have proven effective in the same areas.

Now, I�m not a doctor. But I do know what makes an extremely successful product. And krill oil has it all.

Krill oil has a small, loyal, and quickly growing following. Krill oil is cheaper alternative to many high-priced prescription drugs. And it has attracted the interest of a few major food and medicine companies. They have already started exploring the idea of incorporating krill oil into their well-established brands.

The combination is quickly coming together to create a sizeable investment opportunity for investors looking into the krill boom now.

Should You Buy into the Social Networking Bubble?

2011-05-27

There�s nothing that attracts more investors � and eventually costs them more money � than a hot new growth sector.

Right now the hot new thing is social networking.

The stunning growth of Facebook over the years has whetted Wall Street�s appetite for any and all things social networking-related.

Last week�s screaming IPO of LinkedIn (NASDAQ:LNKD) and the lengthy run-up of Renren (NYSE:RENN) � touted as the �Facebook of China� � are perfect examples.

The smashing success of these two has many investors believing the social networking boom has reignited the dot-com bubble. And they�re thinking unbelievable valuations and expectations are just over the horizon.

Once you stepping away from the frenzy, however, you�ll see a much different picture emerging. One that reveals more realistic expectations and a sizeable trading opportunity, just not the one most investors are plowing their money into right now.

The Rally's Foundation is Shaking

2011-05-18

Thomas Kempis said, �The loftier the building, the deeper must the foundation be laid.�

More than 600 years the words couldn�t be any truer when applied to stock rallies.

Rallies have historically been built on foundations of improving earnings, widening margins, innovation, and economic growth. They are fundamental, solid, and deep foundations. As the foundation grew stronger, the higher valuations could be supported.

The current rally has been built on none of those. It has been built on cheap money � the weakest foundation of all.

Most investors at this point know it will end. They�re right too. Stocks will be fundamentally revalued at some point 20% to 30% below where they are right now.

Lately, there has been some serious shaking of the rally�s foundation and with the end of QE2 just weeks away, we�re seeing a few clues into the market�s next move.

Boom or Doom: The Truth about the Debt Ceiling Debate

2011-05-10

By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing

Let the fear-mongering begin.

The debt ceiling debate has been positioned as a lose/lose situation.

Some claim a failure to increase the debt ceiling will lead to near-term financial Armageddon. They say the U.S. government can�t cut spending now. Deep cuts would kill the economic recovery.

Others predict increasing the debt ceiling will show the U.S. is not serious about its debt and will lead to financial Armageddon. They say additional spending cuts are necessary and not-as-big government, less regulation, and more entrepreneurialism will lead to a true recovery.

The debate will surely make for some interesting political theater. But from an investment perspective, all we have to do is look at recent history to see how this debate will play out and whether an economic boom or doom will follow.

The Long Overdue Energy Boom: Forget $5 Gas, Here is a Much Bigger Energy Opportunity

2011-05-06

Reports of $5-plus gas popping up across the country are a major distraction.

Most consumers are reminded a couple times a week how high gas prices are. The media highlights them every day. They always get a lot of attention.

High prices at the pump, however, are normally more of a distraction than anything else. The most recent run-up is no different.

Right now they�re masking a much bigger energy crunch. And they�re distracting many investors from one of the last remaining undervalued sectors which still offers high current income, low-risk deep values, and that likely will be great place to hide safely from this correction turns out to be the big one we�ve been expecting.

What it Take to Truly Stop the Gold Bull

2011-05-04

The odds of a long-awaited precious metals correction increased this week.

Gold and silver have been setting new high after new high. Gold is up $100 and silver�s up more than $10 since President Obama ruled out significant spending cuts in his mid-April budget speech and the Fed chairman noted inflation will be �transitory.�

The strong uptrend, however, showed its first signs of weakness in months this week. Gold has fallen for three straight days and silver is down nearly 20% from its highs.

If the downswing continues, it could be enough to send the hot money crowd running for the exits and set off a long-awaited (and healthy) correction.

It�s time like these, when pundits are itching declare the bubble over and emotions can quickly overcome rational decisions, the best move is to revisit what it�s going to take to pop the emerging gold bubble.

Stock Market Rally: Permabear Throws in the Towel

2011-04-30

What�s the best move to make right now?

Stocks are up 9% in four months.

The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is just shy of 25. That�s right in between the 1929 and 1987 highs - both of which preceded crashes

Bonds, yielding anywhere from 1% to 10% depending on quality, offer have huge risks and not much reward.

Meanwhile, a recent Gallup survey revealed 55% of Americans felt the U.S. was in a recession. More than half of those felt we were in a depression.

The combination is inherently risky. The �easy� money has been made. But a one big signal this week is showing where one opportunity is likely hiding.

Netflix Crashes: Why You Need to Avoid Unbeatable Stocks

2011-04-26

More than $1 billion disappeared from investors� accounts today.

It wasn�t because of the latest Ponzi scheme. It was because of our �big prediction� for 2011 is coming true.

The culprit, as it often is, was a case of great expectations. And the costly lesson learned by many investors today can help you sidestep big losses and lead you to the largest gains in the still-heating-up-technology sector.

Stock Market Crash Nearing?: One Way to Know the Top is Here

2011-04-23

The unending stock market rally may have just got its next boost.

Following the first big week of earnings season - where the markets signaled it would once again easily leap the quarterly earnings hurdle - the Dow just a few days from a three-year high.

The run-up has a lot of investors more fearful than they have been in a long time. But despite the rally�s strength, there is one long-time indicator that says �the top� is still not in.

Investors Take Caution: The Market's Next Hurdle

2011-04-16

The market has resumed its uptrend. The Dow is up more than eight percent in the last month.

Nothing appears to be a problem for this market. The end of QE2, just two months away, isn�t a �serious� concern. Nor was a massive earthquake halting the world�s third largest economy. $100-plus oil hasn�t done much either. Even last month�s average unemployment numbers were received positively.

It�s enough to make a contrarian investor very, very worried. But there is one more hurdle that will stop this rally in its tracks and kick off the next correction or keep the buying frenzy going strong.

Watch for this at the Real Top of the Gold Bubble

2011-03-13

The precious metals correction didn�t last long. Gold is up 7% and silver is up more than 30% since bottoming out in late January.

The run has brought gold and silver to the forefront of the financial headlines once again.

Not all investors, however, have yet to take the plunge into gold. A recent survey by CNN Money found �experts aren't convinced the [gold�s] gains will continue, with nearly 90% of survey respondents saying the precious metal will lose some luster as turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East eases.�

Although gold forecasts are still range across from the spectrum � stay away, it�s a bubble vs. this will be the last time ever to buy under $2000 an ounce - we continue to look at what the market�s really doing.

And right now one pattern is signaling the uptrend will continue and we�re nowhere near the top of a gold bubble.

$100 Oil Sparks New Global Land Grab is Underway

2011-03-06

A new global land grab is underway and it has been paying off big for early investors over the past few months.

This emerging trend has delivered gains as high as 250%, 310%, and 600% all in the span of a few months.

Despite the sizeable gains, all signs point to this trend still being in the early stages.

Investors jumping on now will likely see equally large gains in the weeks and months ahead. Some of the world�s most profitable and cash-rich companies are forced to push this land grab to even greater heights.