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Links for 2009-04-23 [del.icio.us]

2009-04-24T00:00:00-07:00

LiveBlog @ Sandown 1pm Saturday
guy is blogging at the race at sandown on saturday,got me 3 good winners when he did it at epsom during the week

Wednesday Review

2009-04-15T18:09:00.001+01:00

A great start to a fantastic days racing today, there were decent winners everywhereso hope you showed a profit on the day. I signed up for RacingUK online so I could watch the action. It is a shame that Channel4 have ceased their coverage of the racing this week, a disgrace really but RacingUK proved invaluable and NO adverts to suffer and now I can watch past videos of races without having to suffer the ATR website. Another tool added to the armoury ;-)

Newmarket

150 Native Ruler was a lay for me here at evens and a very small e/w on Horsley Warrior didn't affect the P&L on the race. Gosden's runner won well and gave me confidence for his runners later on the card. Dettori once again showed that he 'owns' at this track. A small lesson here was to be satisfied with the lay and don't try to pick the winners of early-season maidens ;-) It also gave me hope to take on Cecil's runner in the Fielden. He tends to do better with his fillies fresh I feel.

225 Top-rated Monsieur Chevalier was seriously impressive here and looks a sprinter to follow for his in-form yard and I'm just glad he started odds-against ;-)

300 Great result. Popmurphy was a non-runner so Nehaam was my only bet in the race and I could not believe the drift. I could see he was on his toes in the paddock but he went down to the start really well yet still drifted. 8/1 was a great return and I also managed to get 11's on Betfair. Poor show from the Godolphin runner but not entirely unexpected and same for the O'Brien runner as (Guineas aside) he tends to get his runners ready to peak around later in the season.

335 As expected Art Connoiseur ran no sort of race and the trainer was seriously downbeat about his chances this morning on ATR which just goes to show how important it is to pay attention to every piece of news. Unfortunately, Penny's Gift found a couple too good but still nothing was lost with the each-way best. Ouqba gave a serious boost to the Dewhurst form while Courageous did exactly the opposite for the Racing Post Trophy/Crowded House form. Again, this showed that there is nobody better than Barry Hills at producing one after a long absence, especially at Newmarket and it gave me encouragement for Redwood in the Fielden.

410 Very impressive performance from Fantasia who was fully entitled to win this athough I have to admit I put a small lay in at very short odds 'just in case' but nothing serious as I expected her to win.

440 Redwood won very well despite being outpaced and the whispers were spot on with this one. I had a little on for the Derby at 46 on Betfair before the race so am happy with that as he stayed on takingly, clocked comparatively the best time of the day and Barry Hills' 300th winner, a great achievement.

520 Barry Hills with a treble on the day and another winner for the Gainsborough stud colours and Richard Hills. I should have spotted this one but it's been a long day and I tend not to get too involved in maidens but I was peeved I didn't re-assess this race.

555 The market drift on Definightly was significant while the support for the Candy runner Dark Mischief was equally significant. I backed it in the end after listening to Hugh Taylor's analysis on ATR this morning but only to small stakes and it was only a small profit on the race in the end.

Cheltenham

210 Was right to lay Torpichen who was just too short at 8/13 and a bonus with the back of Tasheba being successful to boot.

245 I didn't cover this race on the preview but top-rated Boychuk scored at 17/2 and I managed to snag 11's on Betfair which was an amazing price.

320 Poor run from Dave's Dream here but with the withdrawal of top-rated Polomoche it moved Eleazar up to 2nd on the ratings and that one placed at 18/1. In future I am going to post the top-3 for each race in case of non-runners from the top-2.

355 Private Be had a strange ride but Atouchbetweenacara was seriously impressive, faultless jumping which was not the case when she fell twice from her previous 4 runs but clearly Venetia Williams is still on fire.

430 Bench Warrent was well backed and snuck into a place after being well supported in the morning.

Over at Beverley Fol Hollow did the business in the 3:10 after taking full advantage of the high draw. Labisa actually became a lay in the 455 when it went odds-on so that was a good result as it was beaten into 2nd. New Beginning ran 2nd in the 3:45.

Verizon Golf Championship - Steve Flesch 66/1

2009-04-15T05:36:00.002+01:00

This week the US Tour goes to Hilton Head and I was really impressed with the play of Steve Flesch who almost missed the cut at the Masters but snuck under the radar, shooting -9 under over the weekend to move into a tie for 6th overall. He hit almost 75% of fairways at Augusta and his putting average was 1.5 strokes over the 4 days. So he clearly found some form this week and although he has not shown much at this venue since a 7th in 2003 he is worth an each-way bet as he is a confidence player and clearly found some form over the weekend on one of the toughest stages.

An outsider worth a trade is John Mallinger (who?). Well, he shot -23 under in the Bob Hope earlier in the year, and his last 3 starts read 44-27-6 so if he continues this trend he may just win ;-) Seriously though, he is fairly new to the tour the last few years, had a couple of top-10's the last few seasons and could be due a big finish. The main reason though is that he is 80/1 and 100/1 but 125 with Corals which is worth an e/w bet yet he is 240(!) on Betfair and I think that could be worth a trade as he may trade a lot shorter if he continues his decent play of late and contends.

Bart Bryant is a player on my radar with the Byron Nelson on the horizon which Woods pinched from his last year. He is one of the most accurate drivers on tour so probably should have player better than he has round here but he does have a 13th and 21st here 3-4 years ago. He has been out of sorts for a bit but he did shoot -12 under in Puerto Rico last month so there can not be too much wrong with his game. Again he looks too big on Betfair at 230 and well worth a small trade at those odds as well as a small e/w

Golf Double

I'm also going for a few Tour-double multiples this week with William Hill as I am feeling lucky even though I know deep down it's a real long-shot of a bet. I took down a big score a few years back when I had a couple of big-priced winners and another guy in the top-5 in each event ! My strategy is to pick golfers with William Hill that are generally priced up bigger than the majority of bookies but I only concentrate on the top-50 in the market. The reason I use Hills is that they are one of the few you can place this with online without question.
Usually, I just took down a few hundred when a couple of long-shots placed but I did come close to further big payouts a few more times. For example, if Bob Estes and Shiv Kapur win their respective events this week I take down almost 7k but if they both place it's still just over 400 quid but ties obviously reduce the returns.

http://twitpic.com/3c9di

Wed Bets/Ratings - Penny an each-way gift in Newmarket Free Handicap

2009-04-15T01:48:00.001+01:00

Wednesday sees the 'proper' start of the flat season with the Newmarket Craven meeting. It's a time of the year to be careful though with lots of rumours about horses catching pigeons on the gallops, plenty of horses not being 100% ready for their debut run, guessing whether horses will maintain their form from the all-weather when switched to turf, or even improve on what they have shown on artificial surfaces.

I still like to keep an eye on maidens at this time of year, even if not from a betting point of view as you can spot decent 3yo's that will make up into classic contenders or potentially decent handicappers later in the year. I've taken a look at every race at Newmarket but only like 3 races for bets out of the 8 taking place there plus a couple at Cheltenham and one tonight at Kempton.

Newm300 NEHAAM - 6 Betfair (POPMURPHY - 19 Betfair)
Chelt320   DAVES DREAM - 5/1 Bet365
Newm335 PENNY'S GIFT - 6/1 Paddy Power
Chelt430    MY FRIEND SANDY - 14 Betfair- (BENCH WARRANT 16 Betfair)
Newm445 REDWOOD - 3.9 Betfair
Kemp720   SIMPLIFICATION - 8.2 Betfair

=================================================================================

Newm150 Horsley Warrior
Ones to watch here are Henry Cecil's Native Ruler, he has started the season well and this half bruv to Sixties Icon has already caught the eye on the Limekilns and Al Bahathri gallops. One that could go well at a price though is Horsley Warrior who showed a bit of ability in a maiden at Nottingham and who has been entered in the Dante and Derby. He is clearly held in high regard and will be an each-way price for a small bet but generally speaking this is a race to watch closely.

Newm225 Monsier Chevalier
This one put up a very powerful performance last time, Hannon is bang in form and he can make the most of the weight he receives from Hearts Of Fire who was also impressive last time, albeit a little green. Not a race for getting heavily involved in though and if Monsieur goes odds-on could be worth a lay as Soccer cannot be completely ruled out either.

Newm300 NEHAAM - 6 Betfair
                    POPMURPHY - 19 Betfair
A fantastic looking race and one for the video/dvd recorder if not necessarily for betting but the thing I feel to do is pick a couple of big prices ones for small stakes. Starting with the favourite, Liberation was a progressive sort for Mark Johnston last term, culminating in a 4th to Donativum and Crowded House in the Timeform Million at Newmarket last backed. Liberation was subsequently purchased by Godolphin and made a decent debut for his new yard, despite being reported to need the run, when 2nd at Nad Al Sheba. Not many ride Newmarket better than Dettori and with this one already having had a prep, the top-rated should go well here with the step up in trip likely to suit but as he is SO short in the betting that he can't be backed.
Monitor Closely was a couple of lengths behind Liberation in the Timeform Million and needs to find something. I also think the step up in trip is less likely to suit him, being by Oasis Dream out of a Pivotal mare. A 'danger' according to the ratings could be in the in-form Richard Hannon's Weald Park but on the balance of his form he doesn't look one of the stables leading lights and he has also something to find with Liberation. A bigger danger to the favourite could come from a less-exposed type who may not show up on the ratings due to the unexposed nature of so many of these runners.
The 5 that look the type on breeding are Rockhampton, Popmurphy, Classically, Sumbe, Nehaam and Pergamon.
Rockhampton is clearly well respected from the O'Brien yard but it's hard to equate the Irish form although if they have the run of form they had last year then all their runners warrant utmost respect. This one has been backed for the Derby but I am sure he won't be the first O'Brien runner that is over the next few months and his price also doesn't look tempting enough. I always find it funny when Spotlight or someone states a runner is respected because O'Brien has him well entered up. It would not surprise me if he entered the stable hack for the Derby !
Derby-entry Popmurphy scored in some style in his maiden at Doncaster and was galloping well past the line. It was very impressive for his first ever run on a racecourse. He can only improve for that and at least he has proven he has trained on. It was a very taking performance to my untrained eye and he should not be underestimated because his connections are less fashionable. He is the first of my each-way bets.
Classically is related to Speciosa and ran really well last time considering that most of Charlton's tend to need an outing. He will improve markedly for that run and his fitness is assured but he holds no big entries.
Sumbe may not look a likely winner but he ran a fair 6th in Delegator's maiden at Newmarket with Crowded House a few lengths behind and no less than 8 subsequent winners have come from that maiden so it was clearly a hot one and Tregoning can prep one first time but this is a big ask as he has not even won a maiden.
John Gosden is bang in form and clearly his Nehaam is well thought of as he was mentioned as a contender for the Royal Lodge and Racing Post trophy last term. He won readily over 7f at Newmarket at the tail-end of the season and the Nayef colt like all the others is well entered and exceptionally well bred.. Given Gosden's record at Newmarket this one has to figure and I think he will be challenging Coolmore and Godolphin through the year as I think he is reaching his prime as a trainer. Having said that, this is a very tough race but we are fortunate in that we should be able to get a decent each-way price about him.
Pergamon is interesting. Gosden showed with Mafaaz when he sticks blinkers on for the first time it's not necessarily because they are ungenuine, sometime he does it just to focus their mind on the job even more. An even more unfortunate method he uses is to 'have their knackers off' and he did this to effect last season with Donativum and Pergamon has had the same cruel cut. So to put it crudely, with blinkers and no balls his mind will be 100% focused on the race and his odds are likely to be generous.
I've spent way too much time on this race but I like to have a feel for the main contenders as it helps focus the analysis afterwards and helps when trying to spot promising runs mid-race. I think it will rest between Godolphin and Coolmore again but won't be surprised to see one or more surprise them both, hopefully one of the two I have mentioned.

Newm335 PENNY'S GIFT - 6/1 Paddy Power
Although Art Connoisseur is top-rated and clocked one of the best speed figures last season when winning the Coventry stakes last season there are doubts. I'm not convinced he is the type to train on, he cracked a cannon-bone last season, he is unproven stepped up to this trip and he has Spencer on board and it's hard to know whether we will see champ or Frank nowadays. With Penny's Gift you are assured of the stable being in cracking form with Ryan Moore in the plate, she is a course & distance winner, receives weight pretty much all round and Hannon has won this race twice in recent years. She is thought to be Guineas class, maybe Irish though not English but she looks the value call here with 6/1 Paddy Power a cracking each-way bet with their best-odds guaranteed offer.

Newm410 Kaabari e/w
Fantasia should take this, she looks well up to 1000 Guineas class but you never know, stranger things have happened. She is reported to be heading for the French Guineas as Cumani believes she will be playing for 2nd behind Rainbow View. She reminds me a bit of the stables Gossamer although unlike her she found one too good in the Fillies Mile. Summer Fete should give her a race of it but that one may prefer softer ground being by Pivotal. Instead of taking odds-on it may be best to back her for the 1000 Guineas before this race as her odds are likely to contract. Kaabari is well worth an each-way bet in this. She is from the family that produced the likes of Luso, Needle Gun and Warrsan and could be one for a middle-distance race later in the season. Amazingly, her dam Cloud Castle won the Nell Gwynn at 33/1 and while the win may be beyond her, Brittain's horses are quite often overpriced for their races so she may be worth a small e/w bet.

Newm445 REDWOOD - 3.9 Betfair
A lot of vibes about this one from the Hills yard and he was my first Derby ante-post bet at 65 on Betfair, I advise a small interest as I think his odds will shorten if he wins this well. Barry Hills not only has an excellent record at Newmarket but is one of the best in the biz at producing one ready and fit first time out and this High Chaparral colt out of a Woodman mare is exceptionally well bred and could be his Derby hope. I generally make it a rough rule to pay particularly close attention to an Sheik Mo or Abdullah-owned horse when it is trained by one of the top-boys. I will probably lay the Cecil favourite if it's odds-on at about 20% shorter than it's SP in-running...more of that when I have some time regarding a possible new laying strategy of odds-on shots.

Newm 520 Formula or Invisible Man ?
I tend not to bet much in maidens, preferring to watch unless I hear or see something of interest. One of my favourite strategies is to concentrate on the top-3 in the market and then watch which one shortens up the most. Generally speaking, that is quite relevant so 'll keep an eye on the market and keep my ear to the ground from the few contacts I have that know about maidens/juvenile races to see if there is a word for anything.

Newm555 Definightly e/w
Finally, a handicap to get stuck into ;-) I don't have a strong opinion on this race. Green Beret won well last time but so too did Servoca while Dark Mischief beat Green Beret last season. Definightly missed the break last time in France and if you ignore that run his form looks good enough so he will do for me for a small each-way bet but a race to tread cautiously in.

Phew, glad that is over. Now onto the rest of the day's action, some good stuff at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse but not so good at Beverley or Kempton in the evening.

Starting at Cheltenham and again I may lay Torpichen if he is odds-on in the 2:10. He was poor at Cheltenham and may not like the track, the stable is not firing on all cylinders at the moment and he meets a potentially useful opponent in Tasheba whose connections are in form.

Chelt320 DAVES DREAM - 5/1 Bet365
Mr Geraghty I felt was a bit too easy on Dave's Dream at Cheltenham costing me an each-way wager but I intend to get it back today;-) He stayed on to great effect up the hill that day and it was a great effort nonetheless coming just a week after his Imperial Cup win. He has had the last month off and this extra 1/2 mile should be ideal. 5/1 with Bet365 best odds guaranteed should be snapped up for a lumpy each-way bet as I can't have him out the frame this time with a stronger chance of the win than at Cheltenham in a less competitive race now that he has had a rest.

Chelt430 MY FRIEND SANDY
                  BENCH WARRANT
Both these runners ran solid races last time and should go well for each-way bets. Jim Old had a winner on Monday and has struggled for a while now but My Friend Sandy ran his best race for a while when a staying on 2nd. Would have finished closer but for a mistake 2 out but is worth backing with signs the stable may have a little spurt of decent form ahead. Bench Warrant is marvelously consistent and he can give the weight away here. I always like a horse that can make a lot of running and then fight back when headed, it shows a gameness quality which is what you need in these races.

Fairyhouse looks too trappy although Carrigeen Kalmia in the 3:00 could win the Mares race she won last year while Panzer Chief in the 4:05, Jaamid in the 4:35 and Mustangsallyrally in the 5:10 are the best of the rest on a very trappy card.

Beverley and the introduction of the draw, or should I say pace. This from the ATR draw guide -:

"The 5f trip at Beverley has long been regarded as arguably the strongest draw bias C&D in the country. High draws have enjoyed a significant advantage for many years. If we look at the result of 10 runner or more handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:
Top "third" of the draw: 51.7% (wins), 47.7% (placed)
Middle "third" of the draw: 34.5% (wins), 35.1% (placed)
Bottom "third" of the draw: 13.8% (wins), 17.2% (placed)"

So over 1/2 the winners come from the top-3rd in the draw and just less than half place.

Beve310 Manzila - Fol Hollow
2nd-rated Fyodor is drawn low so I will add in 3rd-rated Fol Hollow who has a particularly good posi in stall 15 and likes to race prominantly. French listed-winner Manzila is also 'just' in the top-3rd of the draw in stall 12 and is another with a chance although that one may find the ground a bit lively but it's not the best race in the world.

Beve345 New Beginning
Dropped to a mark almost 20lb lower than when last successful but ran best race in ages back on turf last time. Robert Winston is in for a good season and although a high'ish draw over a mile isn't as advantageous as it is over shorter distances it still can't hurt.

Beve455 Labisa
Roger Charlton doesn't have a lot of runners at Beverley and this one looks a likely winner.

Kemp720 SIMPLIFICATION 8.2 Betfair
I think it's significant that Ryan Moore has chosen Simplification over Brooksby and it's also significant if Kaabari runs a big race in the Nell Gwynn as he finished 1/4 length behind that rival last time. Could be well in on that run and with a fitness advantage over a few rivals rates an each-way bet.

At Kempton, it can also pay to have a high draw so Compton Classic is interesting in the 7:50

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
BEVERLEY	3-10	Manzila (FR)	419	1	+3
BEVERLEY	3-10	Fyodor (IRE)	416	2
BEVERLEY	3-45	New Beginning (IRE)	354	1	+11
BEVERLEY	3-45	Inside Story (IRE)	343	2
BEVERLEY	4-20	Dubai Crest	355	1	+4
BEVERLEY	4-20	Amethyst Dawn (IRE)	351	2
BEVERLEY	4-55	Labisa (IRE)	322	1	+12
BEVERLEY	4-55	Dancing Wave	310	2
BEVERLEY	5-30	Woteva	325	1	+9
BEVERLEY	5-30	Dispol Diva	316	2
CHELTENHAM	2-10	Torphichen	520	1	+49
CHELTENHAM	2-10	Rory Boy (USA)	471	2
CHELTENHAM	2-45	Boychuk (IRE)	537	1	+8
CHELTENHAM	2-45	Le Duc (FR)	529	2
CHELTENHAM	3-20	The Polomoche (IRE)	555	1	+14
CHELTENHAM	3-20	Dave's Dream (IRE)	541	2
CHELTENHAM	3-55	Private Be	576	1	+6
CHELTENHAM	3-55	Oslot (FR)	570	2
CHELTENHAM	4-30	My Friend Sandy	471	1	+5
CHELTENHAM	4-30	Bench Warrent (IRE)	466	2
CHELTENHAM	5-05	Lodge Lane (IRE)	548	1	+8
CHELTENHAM	5-05	Buck The Legend (IRE)	540	2
FAIRYHOUSE	3-00	Carrigeen Kalmia (IRE)	506	1	+46
FAIRYHOUSE	3-00	Shesadoll (IRE)	460	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-05	Panzer Chief (FR)	456	1	+16
FAIRYHOUSE	4-05	Ross River	440	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-35	Jaamid	454	1	+94
FAIRYHOUSE	4-35	Shan't Complain (IRE)	360	2
FAIRYHOUSE	5-10	Mustangsallyrally (IRE)	474	1	+13
FAIRYHOUSE	5-10	Ted Gunther (IRE)	461	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-20	Simplification	351	1	+2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-20	Herschel (IRE)	349	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-50	Hollow Jo	329	1	+2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-50	Compton Classic	327	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	8-50	Potentiale (IRE)	347	1	+4
KEMPTON (A.W)	8-50	Hucking Hero (IRE)	343	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	9-20	Woodcote Place	389	1	+5
KEMPTON (A.W)	9-20	Princely Hero (IRE)	384	2
NEWMARKET	2-25	Hearts Of Fire	223	1	+5
NEWMARKET	2-25	Monsieur Chevalier (IRE)	218	2
NEWMARKET	3-00	Liberation (IRE)	427	1	+23
NEWMARKET	3-00	Weald Park (USA)	404	2
NEWMARKET	3-35	Art Connoisseur (IRE)	460	1	+3
NEWMARKET	3-35	Penny's Gift	457	2
NEWMARKET	4-10	Fantasia	444	1	+34
NEWMARKET	4-10	Summer Fete (IRE)	410	2
NEWMARKET	4-45	Drumbeat (IRE)	436	1	+0
NEWMARKET	4-45	On Our Way	436	2
NEWMARKET	5-55	Definightly	400	1	+2
NEWMARKET	5-55	Aldermoor (USA)	398	2

Tuesday Bets/Ratings - Carthalawn to mow down rivals @ Fairyhouse

2009-04-14T04:25:00.001+01:00

Ok, first of all someone has asked if I can nominate clearly my best bet of the day each day so I'm going to try to do it in the title of the daily post. Well I am thinking of introducing a points-based staking plan shortly but until then you will have to make do with drawing your own conclusions. I find it difficult to be definite about 'best bets' when most of the racing is so average as it has been since after Aintree and the start of the flat is always a very dicey time. If I had to have just one bet today though it would probably be a decent-sized each-way on Carthalawn in the 4:00 at Fairyhouse but I'll rundown all the races I like the look of on Tuesday.

Fairy225 EBADIYAN - 2.2 Paddy Power
Very unlucky when running out and hitting the rail when in with a chance of winning at Cheltenham in the Triumph Hurdle and this 'should' be a walk in the park. Having said that, the ground will be plenty lively enough but the 6/5 odds-against the favourite will probably be worth taking with Paddy Power as he could go odds-on and they offer best-odds guaranteed.

Fairy255 CLAN TARA - 7 Betfair
This gutsy novice looks to be up against it conceding weight all round but no more so than Roberto Goldback who is half his odds. Clan Tara ran impressive Cheltenham winner Mikhael D'Haguenet to 3 lengths at Naas in January and won a Grade2 last time so I can't believe the price of 7 will last long on Betfair. I will be looking to have a lumpy each-way with a bookie if I can find one paying 4 or 5/1.

Fairy400 CARTHALAWN - 6.2 Betfair
Ran a superb 3rd in the Pierse hurdle off just a 6lb lower mark before going close in a Grade 2 Chase to Glenfinn Captain and then landing a Grade 2 chase from Schindlers Hunt. That form over fences was top-class given the latter's subsequent 3rd in the Ryannair and head defeat to Voy Por Ustedes in the Melling Chase. That makes his mark of 142 over fences look very lenient indeed and it's likelier he should be rated closer to 160. Either way, he is looking absolutely chucked in over hurdles off a mark of 124 with the jockey taking off a further 3lb (was on board in the Pierse) and he could be chucked in. It doesn't always work out that way, but he has to be a decent bet at 6.2 on Betfair even just based on his Pierse form. He must start shorter surely and I will be having a decent bet on this and backing on the place market on Betfair as there will be surely a non-runner reducing the field to less than 16 runners and losing out on the extra place if bet with traditional bookies, not that I expect that to be an issue really.

Yarm320 BILLY BEETROOT - 5.1 Betfair
Is only 'just' rated behind Lovely Thought here and the better value of the two. Lovely Thought clearly improved for the application of blinkers last backend but that win came on soft ground, she has not run for 168 days and the initial effect of the application of blinkers can wear off. Billy Beetroot on the other hand comes here fresh from a couple of decent efforts at Bath and Nottingham and actually has first time blinkers on today and that could make the difference. Any money for him would only increase confidence from this shrewd yard and Spencer is an eye-catching booking. 5.1 on Betfair and could shorten. Alternatively, I will be looking for 4/1+ with a traditional bookie for an each-way bet.

Yarm350 BOUVARDIA - 4.2 Betfair
Henry Cecil has started the season well with wins the last week for Borntobouggie and Warpedsenseofhumour so he clearly has not lost his knack of preparing one first time out and Bouvardia rates a possible decent each-way lump job here if close to the 5/1 quote on the Sporting Life site. He does well with his runners at Yarmouth and this won has already won over the course. Although her win came over 6f she shows plenty of early speed and it's possible this 5f trip will see her to even better effect.

Yarm450 BUDDHIST MONK - 7.8 Betfair
Purchased out of Sir Mark Prescott's yard by Ian Williams, ran a better race than it looked last time considering he had no room AND his saddle slipped so it was an encouraging effort to finish 6th first time out and he will strip fitter for that. He went close in a class2 handicap at Haydock last term, albeit over a longer trip than this but he represents decent each-way value. A Cumani hot shot got turned over yesterday and Bullet Man looks plenty short enough considering his win came on the a-weather and he has been off for 118 days and I am a lot more worried about the Michael Jarvis runner Dark Prospect who had a couple of narrow defeats here last term. He may be worth a small cover bet for the Buddhist Monk win stake.

Exet210 FREDDY'S STAR - 9.2 Betfair
You can't see it but Freddy's Star is a close 3rd on my ratings here. One of the reasons for putting him up is that I think Beverley Hill Billy is one to take on at the price rather than get blindly involved in backing the top-rated. I have him on my notes as "decidedly one-paced" so I think he needs to be stepped up in trip, he has been off the track for some time and his price owes more to the trainer than anything else. Freddy's Star is fit, and went very close over C&D last time and can make up for that near miss here at a decent each-way price.

Exet310 PRESENTING EXPRESS - 4.5 Betfair
Emma Lavelle is in fine form and this course winner ran a good 2nd last time, clear of the remainder. He has his ground today and has a touch more class than his rivals so should prove tough to beat.

Exet410 FIT TO DRIVE - 2.64 Betfair
I would have Fit To Drive as favourite over Jigsaw Dancer here. Ok Jigsaw Dancer drops in class but he showed nothing in the Grand Annual, pulled up the time before and arguably needs a softer surface to show his best. Fit To Drive on the other hand is in form after 3 near misses on Grade1 tracks, acts on fast ground and is in receipt of 7lb from the top-weight.

Mark300 WHISKEY MAGIC - 4.5 Betfair
C&D winner who was unlucky last time, being hampered by a loose horse and then just failing to stay on approaching the last hurdle. He has the highest superiority figure of horses running on Tuesday and looks the value shout.

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
EXETER	2-10	Beverly Hill Billy	423	1	13
EXETER	2-10	Darn Hot	410	2
EXETER	2-40	Vodka Brook (IRE)	487	1	135
EXETER	2-40	Gentle Ranger (IRE)	352	2
EXETER	3-10	Presenting Express (IRE)	495	1	27
EXETER	3-10	Ibberton	468	2
EXETER	3-40	Raslan	505	1	15
EXETER	3-40	Honour High	490	2
EXETER	4-10	Fit To Drive	498	1	42
EXETER	4-10	Jigsaw Dancer (IRE)	456	2
FAIRYHOUSE	2-25	Flag Of Honour (IRE)	452	1	67
FAIRYHOUSE	2-25	Ebadiyan (IRE)	385	2
FAIRYHOUSE	2-55	Clan Tara (IRE)	512	1	11
FAIRYHOUSE	2-55	Quiscover Fontaine (FR)	501	2
FAIRYHOUSE	3-25	Perce Rock	562	1	12
FAIRYHOUSE	3-25	Reisk Superman (IRE)	550	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-00	Carthalawn (IRE)	592	1	18
FAIRYHOUSE	4-00	Psycho (IRE)	574	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-35	Handfull Of Euros (IRE)	536	1	6
FAIRYHOUSE	4-35	Prudent Honour (IRE)	530	2
FAIRYHOUSE	5-05	Natural Storm (IRE)	470	1	1
FAIRYHOUSE	5-05	The Penitent Man (IRE)	469	2
MARKET RASEN	2-00	Industrial Star (IRE)	429	1	14
MARKET RASEN	2-00	Sassanias (FR)	415	2
MARKET RASEN	2-30	Gloucester	473	1	3
MARKET RASEN	2-30	Pagano (IRE)	470	2
MARKET RASEN	3-00	Whisky Magic (FR)	464	1	138
MARKET RASEN	3-00	Springfield Raki	326	2
MARKET RASEN	3-30	The Dark Lord (IRE)	499	1	4
MARKET RASEN	3-30	Mizen Raven (IRE)	495	2
MARKET RASEN	4-00	Wind Instrument (IRE)	488	1	9
MARKET RASEN	4-00	Calusa Caldera (IRE)	479	2
YARMOUTH	3-20	Lovely Thought	299	1	2
YARMOUTH	3-20	Oisin's Boy	297	2
YARMOUTH	3-50	Bouvardia	360	1	4
YARMOUTH	3-50	Peninsular War	356	2
YARMOUTH	4-20	Kokkokila	326	1	18
YARMOUTH	4-20	Russian Invader (IRE)	308	2
YARMOUTH	4-50	Buddhist Monk	390	1	3
YARMOUTH	4-50	Dark Prospect	387	2

Easter Monday Review

A poor day with lots of near-misses. From 32 top-rated runners there were just 6 winners with Glengarra at 8/1 and Tampa Boy at 13/2 the pick of them. However, there were no fewer than 9 runners that placed including the shortlisted runners Rare Coincidence, Ballyvaden, Fantoche, and Stewarts House. Hopefully you will have done them each-way to limit any losses. I generally bet each way at 4/1+ as even if they place you almost recoup all the stake most of the time. I do expect longer losing runs with my method as I am not picking short-priced/odds-on favourites in general, but Monday was very frustrating indeed.

I was especially mystified by the 'ride' given to Garde Champetre in the Irish National. It was never put in the race but Nina Carberry did not appear to push it at any stage despite the fact the horse was jumping for fun, I didn't like that one bit and it was very sad to see the loss of two horses, notably Wichita Lineman who had been so brave and game at Cheltenham.

I'm now beginning to feel wind-down mode coming on for the jumps season with the Newmarket Craven meeting starting on Wednesday.

Laying System

One thing I noticed today is that if I had had the time to lay all 12 odds-on favourites on Monday then I would have collected just 4 times as 8 of them went on to win. You would think this would be disastrous but I worked out afterwards if I had managed to lay them all at close to their SP for 10 pounds a time then it would only have resulted in an 8 pounds loss due to the fact so many of them were very short priced winners. This is encouraging and I will have to look into this further as I believe there is a makings of a profitable laying system here for odds-on shots as today was an exceptional day for them. I am working on downloading the Betfair historical price data to determine how much on average the price shortens from it's odds before it goes in-play and how that relates to the SP.

Monday Bets & Ratings - Be on your 'Garde' in Irish National

2009-04-13T04:53:00.002+01:00

A great day yesterday and thanks for all your kind words, as well as some top-rated winners there were also a 50/1 and 33/1 places in Tyrell Wood's race. I've also stuck a Paypal donation link on the blog so if any of you do take down a big score and are feeling particularly generous then all donations (no matter how small) would be appreciated as the blog/updates do take a lot of time and it would be nice to get something back.

I have decided to trim down the rated races for Easter Monday and will be staying away from maidens, sellers, national hunt flat races and the like. This still leaves just over 30+ races to pick from and I will start with the big one of the day and what could be some cracking races at Fairyhouse.

Redc 2:35 RARE COINCIDENCE
Fairy 3:10 AITMATOV
Fairy 3:55 GARDE CHAMPETRE
Chep 4:10 FORTY FIVE
Plum 4:50 GO HARVEY GO
Chep 4:45 BALLYVADEN
Fairy 5:05 FANTOCHE
Fairy 5:40 STEWARTS HOUSE

Fairyhouse 3:55 GARDE CHAMPETRE
Garde Champetre won very well at Cheltenham in the Cross-X chase off a mark of 150 and races here off a 9lb lower mark so that is one plus straight away. The 2nd plus is that he goes very well on top of the ground. The 3rd plus is that Nina Carberry is unbeaten in the horses 5 starts over the park obstacles at Punchestown and Cheltenham. The 4th plus is her family has a lot of history in this race. Her dad won the race twice as a jockey back in the 70's and trained Bobbyjo while her two brothers have won the race in the past. It has been 2 years since Garde Champetre jumped a regulation fence but after an excellent hurdling and novice chase campaign he was not really given the chance to show what he could do before taking on the specialist Cross-X fences. His stamina is assured, he could be well in and at a best-priced 14/1 he rates very decent each-way value I feel.
For dangers, Notro Pere is unlikely to line up but would be a danger if the trainer decides to take a risk despite the ground. Wichita Lineman is next best but if the weights do go up in the abscence of Notre Pere he will have to lump 11-12 and I just can't see him being up to that and worth noting the last 5 top-weights in this race have all pulled up. A bigger danger could be the classy Casey Jones who had previously beaten Trafford Lad and Emma Jane and was eased in the Sun Alliance only to finish line a train to almost get 4th, albeit a distance behind the winner Cooldine. Emma Jane and Pomme Tiepy come into the mix with the latter being preferred as the mount of stable jock Ruby Walsh.

Fairyhouse 3:10 AITMATOV
AITMATOV was outstayed in heavy ground over this trip last time behind Catch Me but did win the Hatton Grace Hurdle here 2 years ago on heavy ground so I don't necessarily think it was either the trip or ground, I just don't think he likes Navan as he has is only 1/7 at that track whereas he is 2/4 at Fairyhouse so I will give him a chance and quotes of 8/1 could reward each-way money. Meade/Carberry teamed up well with Aran Concerto on Sunday so confidence will be high.
I have the tissue favourite Powerstation a close 2nd on the ratings but I can't have him over this 2 1/2 miles on good ground as I feel he needs 3 miles+. He has now been outpaced in a 3 Cheltenham events, albeit 2 of them being the Coral Cup and World Hurdle but he will seriously struggle to lie up with the others I feel. I think Nicanor is a likelier danger. He has shaken off the tag of only horse to beat Denman (in the Sun Alliance hurdle 3 years ago). After an abortive first run in 2 years, over fences, he arguably has his optimum conditions but you are taking a chance he is the same horse he was before his injury.

Fairyhouse 5:05 FANTOCHE
Fantoche started off his chasing career ok last season, managed a win but was thrown in at a couple of Graded events which proved beyond him as he looks a handicapper. He was only beaten less than a length in a similar event last time at Leopardstown when he had his first run with Barry on board, and they could go one better here. He clearly likes top of the ground, Barry Geraghty is riding supremely at the moment and also worth noting when he has the leg up on a Jessica Harrington runner. Quotes of 12 on Betfair look quite big and he is another worth an each-way bet on Monday.

Fairyhouse 5:40 STEWARTS HOUSE
The presence of Lochan Lacha and Ruby Walsh mean we get a decent price on the 2nd on my ratings Stewarts House. He won very well last time and runs off a mark of 114 here which isn't too bad considering he was rated 123 over hurdles so there may be more to come and at 5/1+ he could be a low risk each-way bet. Lochan Lacha didn't jump too well last time and a much bigger danger could come from the horse Ruby has deserted after scoring on him last time, Monte Cinto. That one could be worth a small each-way cover on the selection. Dulgodti Bob is weighted to reverse their running but it's only a 4lb pull and I think he will confirm their placings.

Tony Martin has started firing in the winners and Ruby Walsh is an eye-catching booking for Psycho in the 2:40, I will have a small bet but it's not really my kind of price and I don't like the overall shape of the race much.

Elsewhere in Ireland, a mixed, early-season card at Cork run on soft/heavy ground is one to swerve especially the big handicaps with apprentice jocks but I've put the ratings in anyway. The only thing I would say is to pay attention to young Wayne Lordan. He was a decent apprentice and as with a lot of these jocks struggled once he lost his claim but he is getting some decent rides for the likes of Tommy Stack and David Wachman and had a couple of winners yesterday. He could be a jockey to watch this season.

Chepstow 4:10 FORTY FIVE
Heading back across the pond and I've been waiting for Forty Five since he won with consummate ease last time under Tony McCoy. If McCoy was not riding in Ireland today I feel he would be a lot shorter than the 7/2 early quote on Betfair. This is partly the reason but also the presence of a Paul Nicholls French-purchase and a 19lb rise in the weights could be a bit to do with it, but he looked pretty special last time and the price is right for me for a win bet as Nicholls horse has a lot to prove and also worth pointing out, no Ruby Walsh ;-) C&D winner Mango Catcher is in good heart, is top-rated and the main challenger if Nicholls horse fails to fire.

Chepstow 4:45 BALLYVADEN
An 18-runner handicap doesn't look the wisest betting proposition but a lot of these are out of sorts or unreliable. Not so Ballyvaden who is seeking the hat-trick after a couple of wins at Leicester. Not only that but her trainer Mrs Caroline Keevil is red-hot at the moment with two winners in Deep Pockets and Dizzy Future on Sunday. Her record with the latter proves she knows what it takes to keep a horse in-form and at 6/1+ we can lump on each way in the knowledge that it will more than likely not be out of the first-4 with a strong chance of the win.

Plumpton 4:50 GO HARVEY GO
Go Harvey Go ran well last time when stepped up in trip but his stamina gave way in the bottomless ground at Towcester which is stamina sapping at the best of times. Back over this sharper track on better ground he can be seen to much better effect and could provide an each-way value alternative to the favourite. Cross Kennon won 3 outings ago off a mark of 72 but failed to win 4 days later carrying a 7lb penalty. He then ran 4 days ago off a mark of 92 and scored comfortably. He has another 7lb penalty today but I have a feeling this race is tougher than last time, that he may need a bit more time between his races and so he could be vulnerable having his 4th race in the space of just over a month.

The rest of the Plumpton card loooks decidedly moderate and trappy but keep an eye out for Gary Moore runners there. He generally does well here with fancied hurdles runners so keep an eye on any support for Maxwil or Maclean in the 2:30 and 3:05 races respectively.

Fakenham looks trappy but the best bet there might be Lord Alfred who will come on for what was virtually his first run in over a year and trip and ground should suit but it's hard to be confident about anything on the card.
Huntingdon looks even worse and I won't even bother rating their races.

Redcar 2:35 RARE COINCIDENCE
In the 2:35 race Rare Coincidence reappears quickly with a 6lb penalty and at around 11/2 could be worth a decent each-way bet if Callan can poach a lead early in the straight again, could prove tough to peg back in this form. This is probably the only one I can pick out from the flat on Monday.

Elsewhere at Redcar, I like Style Award in the 2:00 race. She has dropped from a mark of 85 down to 68 in the last year but her 7th position last time was better than it looked as she was squeezed for room in the closing stages and would only have been a few lengths down at the line.
In the 3:45 at Redcar there are a couple having a run for a new trainer, Baltimore Jack notably but I prefer Buy On The Red. This is just the type the in-form David Nicholls can run up a sequence with and unlike Baltimore Jack is a proven winner over this specialist trip. 8/1 looks tempting to shortlist but at this stage of the season caution is the watchword so small stakes only.

Over at Warwick I think Winker Watson may get beaten in the 4:05 conditions stakes as he didn't look like he trained on last year and/or maybe a sprinter ? Much better value is Dream Eater who ran a close 5th to Henrythenavigator on his first run of the season in the 2000 Guineas last year ! Clearly goes well fresh and could be tough to beat. I also like Dalepak Flyer in the 5:15, could go well at decent odds if more patiently ridden than last time and I think a low draw helps here over 7f.

Finally over at Yarmouth I like Networker in the 4:00 race and a double-figure price about this C&D winner could see a return while in the last at 5:45 Old Romney is sure to be popular with Ryan Moore booked but is a bit of a bridesmaid and I would rather have an each-way bet on Onemoreandstay, again at double-figure odds. He was upped in trip last time, running well before being hampered and is worth another each-way bets at 12/1+.

Good Luck

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
CHEPSTOW	3-35	Russian Around (IRE)	492	2
CHEPSTOW	3-35	Pangbourne (FR)	502	1	+10
CHEPSTOW	4-10	Mango Catcher (IRE)	472	2
CHEPSTOW	4-10	Forty Five (IRE)	484	1	+12
CHEPSTOW	4-45	Twilight Eagle (IRE)	451	2
CHEPSTOW	4-45	Ballyvaden (IRE)	455	1	+4
CORK	2-55	Cnocan Gold (IRE)	359	2
CORK	2-55	Croisultan (IRE)	363	1	+4
CORK	3-30	Inoma James (IRE)	372	2
CORK	3-30	Glenfolan (IRE)	389	1	+17
CORK	4-40	Nazdaq (IRE)	379	2
CORK	4-40	Ready To Rocknroll (IRE)	390	1	+11
CORK	5-15	Killinan (IRE)	364	2
CORK	5-15	Majestic Times (IRE)	373	1	+9
FAIRYHOUSE	2-10	Serpentaria	518	1	+33
FAIRYHOUSE	2-10	Baily View (IRE)	485	2
FAIRYHOUSE	2-40	Psycho (IRE)	536	1	+7
FAIRYHOUSE	2-40	Dancing Tornado (IRE)	529	2
FAIRYHOUSE	3-10	Aitmatov (GER)	578	2
FAIRYHOUSE	3-10	Powerstation (IRE)	588	1	+10
FAIRYHOUSE	3-55	Wichita Lineman (IRE)	579	2
FAIRYHOUSE	3-55	Garde Champetre (FR)	586	1	+7
FAIRYHOUSE	5-05	Back On The Road (IRE)	505	2
FAIRYHOUSE	5-05	Fantoche (BRZ)	513	1	+8
FAIRYHOUSE	5-40	Monte Cinto (FR)	477	2
FAIRYHOUSE	5-40	Stewarts House (IRE)	481	1	+4
FAKENHAM	3-15	E Major	410	2
FAKENHAM	3-15	Cornelia	422	1	+12
FAKENHAM	3-50	Ortega (FR)	419	2
FAKENHAM	3-50	Tampa Boy (IRE)	433	1	+14
FAKENHAM	4-25	Craven (IRE)	442	2
FAKENHAM	4-25	Lord Alfred (IRE)	448	1	+6
PLUMPTON	2-30	Art Trend (IRE)	436	2
PLUMPTON	2-30	Tobago Bay	474	1	+38
PLUMPTON	3-05	Cusp	376	2
PLUMPTON	3-05	Glengarra (IRE)	382	1	+6
PLUMPTON	3-40	Estate	418	2
PLUMPTON	3-40	Balakar (IRE)	423	1	+5
PLUMPTON	4-15	Predateur (FR)	494	2
PLUMPTON	4-15	Gauvain (GER)	565	1	+71
PLUMPTON	4-50	Go Harvey Go (IRE)	382	2
PLUMPTON	4-50	Cross Kennon (IRE)	401	1	+19
PLUMPTON	5-25	Strolling Vagabond (IRE)	381	2
PLUMPTON	5-25	Walton Way	392	1	+11
REDCAR	2-00	Gap Princess (IRE)	342	2
REDCAR	2-00	Style Award	345	1	+3
REDCAR	2-35	Rare Coincidence	334	2
REDCAR	2-35	Categorical	346	1	+12
REDCAR	3-45	Baltimore Jack (IRE)	335	2
REDCAR	3-45	Buy On The Red	337	1	+2
REDCAR	4-55	Charlie Tipple	374	2
REDCAR	4-55	Just Bond (IRE)	386	1	+12
REDCAR	5-30	Simple Rhythm	292	2
REDCAR	5-30	Fasliyanne (IRE)	293	1	+1
WARWICK	4-05	Dream Eater (IRE)	461	1	+0
WARWICK	4-05	Winker Watson	461	1
WARWICK	5-15	Dalepak Flyer (IRE)	280	1	+0
WARWICK	5-15	Everaard (USA)	280	1
WARWICK	5-50	Debdene Bank (IRE)	310	1	+0
WARWICK	5-50	Jackie Kiely	310	2
YARMOUTH	2-50	Smokey Rye	342	2
YARMOUTH	2-50	Astrodonna	346	1	+4
YARMOUTH	4-00	Sands Of Barra (IRE)	320	2
YARMOUTH	4-00	Networker	327	1	+7
YARMOUTH	5-45	Onemoreandstay	337	2
YARMOUTH	5-45	Old Romney	352	1	+15

Sunday Ratings & Analysis

2009-04-12T02:42:00.002+01:00

A good day for me yesterday with a new, improved ratings system. From 38 top-rated runners on the day there were 7 winners Petit Fleur, Mahadee, Born Tobouggie, Antonius Caesar, Isn't That Lucky, Imco Spirit and Zarinski. There were 6 2nd's including narrow misses for the likes of Shampagne. There were also 3 3rd's some at decent each-way prices. So overall half of the top-rated runners finished in the top-3 which isn't too bad and on another day it could have been even better.

From the 38 that were 2nd top-rated, they produced 6 winners, 3 2nd's and 2 3rd's.

So to summarise, the winner of 13 of the 38 races came from the top-2 in the ratings which is a fair strike-rate. If you ignore some of the maiden and National Hunt flat races then the strike-rate gets even better so I am happy with how the new ratings performed overall on their first real day of use.

I re-invested half my winnings yesterday on Bermuda Pointe once I could see him in the paddock and the stable confidence, unfortunately it meant I missed the opening 4/1 but it worked out very well indeed so the bank is getting boosted for whenever I decide to take up the 50k challenge, which may be Sunday, who knows.

http://twitpic.com/35q59

Sunday Ratings & Analysis

Cork 3:55 LINE BALL
Fairy 2:45 SHIRLEY CASPER
Fairy 3:45 TRAFFORD LAD
Muss 3:50 EXCUSEZ MOI
Muss 4:20 GORDONSVILLE
Towc 3:10 PTERODACTYL
Towc 3:40 OSCAR JACK

Some fair stuff on Sunday. The first one that caught my eye is the Christy Roche/JP McManus owned LINE BALL (6.2 Betfair) in the 3:55 at Cork. Fairly well handicapped over hurdles compared to his chase mark, Tony McCoy take the ride and he sports first time blinkers, the horse that is not McCoy ;-) He looks like he could be worthy of each-way support, if the blinkers bring about improvement he could win. Main danger could be the Willie Mullins-trained top-weight Freds Benefit.

Over at Fairyhouse and nothing stands out quite as much as Line Ball but one thing that does is the presence of Barry Geraghty who is riding seriously well at the moment. The one that catches my eye is SHIRLEY CASPER (9.8 Betfair) in the 2:45 She is rated well clear of the 2nd on the ratings although is a frustrating type who consistently places. Barry was on board though for her win two outings ago so he may know how to get the best out of her, again she is likely to be an each-way price.
In the big race at Fairyhouse @ 3:45, the Powers Gold Cup, Ballyholland is top-rated but burst a blood vessel last time, prefers top of the ground and is perhaps flattered on the ratings. The gutsy TRAFFORD LAD is preferred and likely to start shorter than his price of 9/4 on Betfair. He lost his unbeaten record behind Casey Jones after having previously defeated Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer and ran a decent 3rd to subsequent Sun Alliance winner Cooldine and Forpadydeplasterer last time. That was an even better effort than it looked as he scoped badly after that race and his prep had been held up by a bruised foot. If he is back to close to 100% he takes the beating.

On the sole flat card at Musselburgh on Sunday I am going to take a bit of a chance with an outsider in the sprint handicap at 3:50 with EXCUSEZ MOI. Winner of the 2006 Great St Wilfrid off a mark of 99 and thought to be a one time Guineas horse by Clive Britain, he has clearly lost a fair bit of that ability but he ran a decent enough race at Doncaster on his first turf start since September last year, finishing a very close 3rd in the group that had the worst of things and yet he has been dropped a couple more pounds to a mark of 83. He has first-time cheekpieces on today which may just help focus his mind a bit more. A lot of these are poor types but Excusez Moi did show glimpses of class when contesting GP2 and GP3 races last season and he looks well worth each-way support if he is anywhere close to the 25/1 quote in the Racing Post tissue.
The handicap at 4:20 @ Musselburgh can go to Jim Goldie's GORDONSVILLE who can finally break his turf bridesmaid tag. His last 3 runs here last season read 2-2-2 and he is generally frustrating but two of those runs were in much hotter Class2 handicaps, he goes pretty well fresh and there has to be a chance this is his early season target. Probable each-way bet to nothing but lets hope today is the day as I feel he has the right combo of ground and trip which I feel he needs and Pass The Port's absence can only increase his chances of success.

Speaking of Port, PUSH THE PORT in the 4:30 at Plumpton can follow up his recent C&D success last time in the handicap chase. He is comparatively well handicapped over fences compared to his hurdles mark and the first-time cheekpieces clearly did the trick. With National winning jockey Liam Treadwell full of confidence at the moment, he can bely odds of 5.2 on Betfair currently.
Gary Moore's HIGH LIFE could be an interesting each-way in the 5:00 race there (11.5 Betfair). She landed her maiden hurdle win for Alan King back in 2007 over 2 miles on decent ground off a mark of 106. It's easy to make excuses for poor horses over time but a combination of high handicap mark, soft ground, too long a trip AND fences have been against him for some time. Fortunately, that means he runs today off a mark of 90 in optimum conditions for a trainer who has a good record at the course and is bang in form. Philip Hide takes the ride for the first time.

Over at Towcester recent C&D winner PTERODACTYL can go in again in the 3:10, albeit at shorter odds than ideal. I can see this one going off close to odds-on though from it's current mark of 2.74 and could be more of an early trade. Venetia Williams team is bang in form right now and she can possibly follow up with OSCAR JACK in the 3:40 race who looks too big at 5's.

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
CORK	2-25	Audrey (GER)	351	1	+108
CORK	2-25	Moving Heart (IRE)	243	2
CORK	2-55	Liberty To Rock (IRE)	350	1	+28
CORK	2-55	Daggers Bond (IRE)	322	2
CORK	3-25	Well Insured (IRE)	304	1	+5
CORK	3-25	Napoleon Dynamite (IRE)	299	2
CORK	3-55	Line Ball (IRE)	526	1	+11
CORK	3-55	Freds Benefit (IRE)	515	2
CORK	4-25	Marhaba Million (IRE)	455	1	+119
CORK	4-25	Grand Lahou (FR)	336	2
CORK	4-55	Osborn (FR)	446	1	+71
CORK	4-55	Speedlock (IRE)	375	2
CORK	5-25	Urban Gale (IRE)	222	1	+54
CORK	5-25	Owner Occupier	168	2
FAIRYHOUSE	2-15	In The Haven (IRE)	486	1	+13
FAIRYHOUSE	2-15	Slievecorragh (IRE)	473	2
FAIRYHOUSE	2-45	Shirley Casper (IRE)	498	1	+118
FAIRYHOUSE	2-45	Seisdon Honour (IRE)	380	2
FAIRYHOUSE	3-15	Fisher Bridge (IRE)	497	1	+111
FAIRYHOUSE	3-15	Fosters Cross (IRE)	386	2
FAIRYHOUSE	3-45	Ballyholland (IRE)	480	1	+63
FAIRYHOUSE	3-45	Trafford Lad	417	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-15	Mick The Man (IRE)	527	1	+3
FAIRYHOUSE	4-15	Clan Tara (IRE)	524	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-45	Beautiful Vision (IRE)	459	1	+4
FAIRYHOUSE	4-45	Aggie's Lad (IRE)	455	2
FAIRYHOUSE	5-15	Coole River (IRE)	337	1	+4
FAIRYHOUSE	5-15	Luska Lad (IRE)	333	2
MUSSELBURGH	2-20	Lucayan Dancer	338	1	+25
MUSSELBURGH	2-20	Keisha Kayleigh (IRE)	313	2
MUSSELBURGH	2-50	Harlech Castle	381	1	+2
MUSSELBURGH	2-50	Blue Tomato	379	2
MUSSELBURGH	3-20	Striker Torres (IRE)	332	1	+20
MUSSELBURGH	3-20	Olympic Dream	312	2
MUSSELBURGH	3-50	Excusez Moi (USA)	387	1	+3
MUSSELBURGH	3-50	Just Bond (IRE)	384	2
MUSSELBURGH	4-20	Gordonsville	372	1	+3
MUSSELBURGH	4-20	Pass The Port	369	2
MUSSELBURGH	4-50	Dazzling Light (UAE)	316	1	+17
MUSSELBURGH	4-50	Longboat Key	299	2
MUSSELBURGH	5-20	Titus Andronicus (IRE)	325	1	+1
MUSSELBURGH	5-20	Dispol Grand (IRE)	324	2
PLUMPTON	2-00	Sam Lord	452	1	+175
PLUMPTON	2-00	Mtoto's Prince	277	2
PLUMPTON	2-30	Silver Dollars (FR)	412	1	+11
PLUMPTON	2-30	Good Old Days (IRE)	401	2
PLUMPTON	3-00	Quartz Du Montceau (FR)	367	1	+14
PLUMPTON	3-00	Quelclasse (FR)	353	2
PLUMPTON	3-30	Nesnaas (USA)	418	1	+9
PLUMPTON	3-30	Laharna	409	2
PLUMPTON	4-00	Blueland (IRE)	346	1	+2
PLUMPTON	4-00	Royal Prodigy (USA)	344	2
PLUMPTON	4-30	Push The Port (IRE)	385	1	+10
PLUMPTON	4-30	Spanchil Hill	375	2
PLUMPTON	5-00	High Life	389	1	+7
PLUMPTON	5-00	Benayoun	382	2
TOWCESTER	2-10	Russian Epic	302	1	+5
TOWCESTER	2-10	Horseford Hill	297	2
TOWCESTER	2-40	Super Lord (IRE)	423	1	+7
TOWCESTER	2-40	Marked Man (IRE)	416	2
TOWCESTER	3-10	Busker Royal	499	1	+20
TOWCESTER	3-10	Pterodactyl (IRE)	479	2
TOWCESTER	3-40	Twilight Eagle (IRE)	449	1	+11
TOWCESTER	3-40	Oscar Jack (FR)	438	2
TOWCESTER	4-10	Topflight Wildbird	417	1	+2
TOWCESTER	4-10	Transvestite (IRE)	415	2
TOWCESTER	4-40	Back Nine (IRE)	446	1	+4
TOWCESTER	4-40	Rydal Park (IRE)	442	2
TOWCESTER	5-10	Pipe Banner	324	1	+136
TOWCESTER	5-10	Star King (IRE)	188	2

Saturday Bets & Rory Sabbatini for the Masters ?

2009-04-11T05:53:00.003+01:00

Am testing a post from an email client to the blog so apologies if this doesn't come out right. I recouped the final 30 quid for the 50k challenge although messed up because I backed an evens money John Gosden winner prematurely at 11/10 when it should have been a lay, lucky but they all count ! I am taking a break from the 50k challenge until I can figure out how to approach it better but will continue with the lays which I skipped on Thursday.

Starting off with the Masters. Ogilvy is about our best hope although still 6 shots back. I've gone in for RORY SABBATINI. He shot an excellent 67 yesterday to move to within 5 of the lead and I managed to sneak 150/1 on Betfair and 100/1 with Bet365. He is current around 70 on Betfair and generally 50/1 elsewhere but I think he looks well positioned for an assault on the leaders over the weekend and when he gets hot he gets very streaky.

=========================================

Saturday Racing

I couldn't believe today when Bet365 opened up their market on the Easter Stakes at Kempton in the 3:10 on Saturday. They went 3/1 about SAINT ARCH and the price held for a good few hours before they chopped it into 13/8. I think it will win but might have a sneaky each-way on my top-rated runner SHAMPAGNE as it won 3 times on artificial surfaces last year and was not beaten too far last time in that Breeders Cup trial at Kempton.

Apart from that I like FLOWING CAPE who is an each-way price at 13/2 in the 3:45 at Kempton. Can see it starting shorter with Al Muheer the danger.

In the 4:50 at Kempton MR WILLIS should be too strong for these again for the in-form John Best yard and they have a chance of a double with Alfresco in the 4:15 race although I prefer the odds about CAN CAN STAR there each-way.

As far as the jumps action goes, Evan Williams does well at this time of year and his TEMPTING PARADISE will appreciate the better ground in the 4:20 race and can beat Sebastiano.

At Carlisle in the 3:25 Royal Artillery winner BANNISTER LANE looks interesting although may prefer a bit more juice.

In the 5:05 race at Carlisle BERMUDA POINTE can improve for his first run in 80 days last time when he just blew up a bit. He will strip fitter here and will be an each-way price.

At Haydock I can see some big-priced winners there as the jumps season proper tails off but in the 2:55 race BURTON PORT appeals at 9/2 with Bet365. I can see this winning pointer starting shorter for Henderson/Geraghty.

In the 4:05 race COACH LANE can go well for National-winning trainer Venetia Williams.

In the 2:45 at Newton Abbot SIR MONTY should appreciate the first-time blinkers.

Over at Dundalk in the 4:25 ADARE MANOR gets his first run for Nial Madden and this course and distance winner should go well against main danger Cochlear.

In the 5:00 at Dundalk INDIANA GIRL was 3rd in the Irish 1000 Guineas trial last time and was not knocked about once her chance had gone. She drops in class and could take some beating here and has won at the course already.

Here are my top-two rated runners for each race with a Sup(eriority) rating that the top-rated has over the 2nd in the race.

Course, Time, Horse, Rating, Rank, Sup

CARLISLE	2-20	Sa Suffit (FR)	527	1	+29
CARLISLE	2-20	Fit To Drive	498	2
CARLISLE	2-50	Getinbybutonlyjust	423	1	+21
CARLISLE	2-50	Sands Rising	402	2
CARLISLE	3-25	Bannister Lane	499	1	+0
CARLISLE	3-25	Antonius Caesar (FR)	499	1
CARLISLE	3-55	Isn't That Lucky	533	1	+89
CARLISLE	3-55	Cornerback (IRE)	444	2
CARLISLE	4-30	Ngong Hills (FR)	421	1	+15
CARLISLE	4-30	Jorveybrook (IRE)	406	2
CARLISLE	5-05	Cantgeton (IRE)	462	1	+11
CARLISLE	5-05	Bermuda Pointe (IRE)	451	2
CARLISLE	5-35	Natiain	458	1	+132
CARLISLE	5-35	Geeveem (IRE)	326	2
DUNDALK (A.W)	2-15	Chief Wild Cat (IRE)	236	1	+15
DUNDALK (A.W)	2-15	Spring Horizon (IRE)	221	2
DUNDALK (A.W)	2-50	Lilly Be (IRE)	196	1	+5
DUNDALK (A.W)	2-50	Cihangir (IRE)	191	2
DUNDALK (A.W)	3-20	Johnstown Lad (IRE)	392	1	+103
DUNDALK (A.W)	3-20	Soap Wars	289	2
DUNDALK (A.W)	3-55	Imco Spirit (IRE)	244	1	+19
DUNDALK (A.W)	3-55	Lista Lightning (IRE)	225	2
DUNDALK (A.W)	4-25	Adare Manor (IRE)	273	1	+1
DUNDALK (A.W)	4-25	Cochlear (IRE)	272	2
DUNDALK (A.W)	5-00	Solas Na Greine (IRE)	276	1	+1
DUNDALK (A.W)	5-00	Indiana Gal (IRE)	275	2
DUNDALK (A.W)	5-30	Mountain Ridge (IRE)	246	1	+36
DUNDALK (A.W)	5-30	Pride Celebre (IRE)	210	2
DUNDALK (A.W)	6-00	Zarinski (IRE)	241	1	+3
DUNDALK (A.W)	6-00	Zafferana (IRE)	238	2
HAYDOCK	2-25	Laustra Bad (FR)	478	1	+5
HAYDOCK	2-25	Singhalongtasveer	473	2
HAYDOCK	2-55	Burton Port (IRE)	494	1	+4
HAYDOCK	2-55	Fiendish Flame (IRE)	490	2
HAYDOCK	3-30	Norman The Great	498	1	+7
HAYDOCK	3-30	Clova Island	491	2
HAYDOCK	4-05	Coach Lane	500	1	+11
HAYDOCK	4-05	Tom's Toybox	489	2
HAYDOCK	4-40	Florida Dream (IRE)	475	1	+13
HAYDOCK	4-40	Go West (IRE)	462	2
HAYDOCK	5-15	Freeze The Flame (GER)	496	1	+2
HAYDOCK	5-15	Temoin	494	2
HAYDOCK	5-45	Shannina	261	1	+1
HAYDOCK	5-45	Quizwork (FR)	260	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	2-05	Mahadee (IRE)	426	1	+3
KEMPTON (A.W)	2-05	Samarinda (USA)	423	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	2-40	Born Tobouggie (GER)	404	1	+23
KEMPTON (A.W)	2-40	Tactful (IRE)	381	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	3-10	Shampagne	415	1	+1
KEMPTON (A.W)	3-10	Saint Arch (CAN)	414	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	3-45	Al Muheer (IRE)	437	1	+4
KEMPTON (A.W)	3-45	Flowing Cape (IRE)	433	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	4-15	Alfresco	388	1	+0
KEMPTON (A.W)	4-15	Can Can Star	388	1
KEMPTON (A.W)	4-50	Mr Willis	370	1	+4
KEMPTON (A.W)	4-50	Grand Honour (IRE)	366	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	5-25	War Of The Roses (IRE)	381	1	+12
KEMPTON (A.W)	5-25	Salute (IRE)	369	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	5-55	Formation (USA)	428	1	+11
KEMPTON (A.W)	5-55	Press The Button (GER)	417	2
NEWTON ABBOT	1-40	Petit Fleur	275	1	+18
NEWTON ABBOT	1-40	Minnie Hill (IRE)	257	2
NEWTON ABBOT	2-10	Bathwick Quest (IRE)	439	1	+20
NEWTON ABBOT	2-10	Je Ne Sais Plus (FR)	419	2
NEWTON ABBOT	2-45	Stance	427	1	+5
NEWTON ABBOT	2-45	Sir Monty (USA)	422	2
NEWTON ABBOT	3-15	Down The Stretch	473	1	+1
NEWTON ABBOT	3-15	Gold Heart (FR)	472	2
NEWTON ABBOT	3-50	Green Belt Elite (FR)	449	1	+1
NEWTON ABBOT	3-50	Wild Tonto (IRE)	448	2
NEWTON ABBOT	4-20	Sebastiano (FR)	432	1	+0
NEWTON ABBOT	4-20	Tempting Paradise (IRE)	432	2
NEWTON ABBOT	4-55	Speedy Directa (GER)	388	1	+7
NEWTON ABBOT	4-55	Well Green (IRE)	381	2

Wednesday Bets

2009-04-08T00:09:00.001+01:00

Well, managed to recoup another 30 thanks to the narrow win of Daraiym so only another 30 to recoup to get back on track for the 50k challenge and get the balance up to 1166. I am not happy with how my shortlisted selections are performing though and feel that I am forcing myself to come up with bets on days when the racing is poor. However, I’ll continue with it for now and try not to pick too many ‘shorties’ as I think that is where I am going wrong. For Wednesday here are the ones I will rely on. Both Marco Botti (Fiulin) and John Gosden (Green Beret) are in-form at the moment and I would expect these two to start shorter than their current respective quotes of 3.45 and 2.26 on Betfair as at 23:30. Jim Boyle is another trainer in form and his SPINNING JOY drops in class and could be an interesting each-way at a price in the 7:20 at Kempton while his WOTASHIRTFULL is also worth a look in the 4:50 at Brighton. I can see CAPE COLONY starting a lot shorter in the 7:50 and that too could be worth an each-way bet. He ran well against Wine ‘N Dine in December and was messed about last time at Wolves. He has been tipped up by ‘King of the Sand’ as a ‘next best’ bet of the week in the RFO.

Here240 NOTICEABLE
Nott300 BILLY BEETROOT
Here310 NAUGHTY BY NATURE
Nott330 FIULIN
Brig420 GREEN BERET (poss odds-on)
Kemp920 RYEDALE OVATION (standby)

The fav lays did ok on Tuesday, just over a 16pt return and I am going to start increasing the lay stakes x 3 on these to produce better returns as I feel it’s pretty much a foolproof method from what I have seen so far.

07/04/2009	Pontefract	14:10	Chapter and Verse	1.62	15.00	W	-9.30	1153.82
07/04/2009	Fontwell	15:30	Black Beauty	1.80	13.50	L	13.50	1167.32
07/04/2009	Fontwell	16:00	Greenbridge	1.19	14.16	W	-2.69	1164.63
07/04/2009	sedgefield	16:50	simple jim	1.83	15.04	L	15.04	1179.67
							16.55

I’ve given up on Boylesports as they don’t offer early odds so no point having best odds guaranteed. Also their site crashed numerous times during Aintree so as well as Bet365, Paddy Power, Stan James and William Hill I have not added Canbet to my portfolio. They not only offer best-odds guaranteed on all racing but also have SP+ to guarantee you get better than SP and also offer 25% cashback on losing monthly balances which is a very good deal although hopefully one I will not need. Check them out by clicking the link below.

Tuesday Bets & US Masters Speciality Bets

2009-04-07T11:16:00.002+01:00

On with the 50k challenge and lay bets today. As it stood last time I was going to try to recoup the 90 target over 3 days. I managed to recoup 30 pounds of the 90 when Stagecoach Amber won on Sunday so to get the next 30 back I am going with these 5.

Font 2:30 CALL ME A LEGEND
Sedg 2:50 THE DUKE’S SPEECH
Font 3:00 FREE GIFT
Pont 3:40 DARAIYM
Sedg 3:50 GENERAL HARDI

Today there are a couple I like at each-way prices. The first is DESERT DREAMER in the 2:40 at Pontefract and the 2nd is BADGER in the 4:20 at Sedgefield.

US MASTERS ADDITIONAL BETS

Finally, a couple of additional speciality bets for the US Masters to top up our outright bets on Harrington, Ogilvy, Johnson and Cink. JUSTIN ROSE has been 1st round leader the last 2 years and can be backed at 45 on Betfair to be 1st round leader again. That appeals as does the 100 on ANGEL CABRERA in the same market.

The top-debutant market is all about the front-2 but I like MATTHEW GOGGIN who played really well in Australia at the end of the year and has the game for Augusta. He can be backed at 16’s on Betfair.

Finally, one player that is worth backing for a top-10 finish is one of our outright picks. STEWART CINK is a massive 16 on Betfair to finish in the top-10 and that is well worth a few quid.

Sunday Bets

2009-04-04T23:22:00.001+01:00

Keeping this brief as I have visitors up from London for a few days so probably won’t be posting the next few days, the last 2 days at Aintree have been very tough for everyone. At least State Of Play managed to place in the National and Kalahari King was the highlight. Fortunately, I didn’t have time to do any lays or 50k challenge bets with the guests arriving so I may have to try to get some of these on ‘on the quiet’ or wait until Tuesday to continue trying to recoup the previous losses.

Hexh 2:20 FORTYSECOND STREET
Mark 3:30 RUSTARIX
Mark 4:00 STAGECOACH AMBER
Curr 4:15 POET
Hexh 4:20 SIRKEEL
Sout 4:40 HEIR TO BE

Aintree Festival – Saturday Analysis (Grand National)

2009-04-03T22:29:00.001+01:00

Trends – 8 of the last 10 winners started in the first two of the betting market. 9 of the last 10 winners were 5 or 6yo’s. 7 of the last 10 winners had at least 2 wins that season. 9 of the last 10 winners had 4 runs that season. 6 of the last 10 winners ran at Cheltenham and finished 6th or better.
Summary - Very little to separate the top-5 in this trappy looking novice hurdle. Cape Tribulation fits 4 of the above stats but was disappointing at Cheltenham and is not rated in the top-5. Copper Bleu, Trenchant and Saticon are next best on the stats. Preference is for SATICON given the form Alan King and ‘Choc’ Thornton. He should be suited by the step up in trip but it’s trappy so I urge each-way caution. Another worse a smaller each-way is his stablemate TRENCHANT who showed he like a flat track when scoring at Kempton before a running on 5th in the Triumph. This could be a 1-2 for Alan King.

SATICON – EACH WAY @ 7
TRENCHANT – EACH WAY @ 13

Trends – 8 of the last 10 winners were in the first 3 last time. 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the Arkle. All of the 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter. 8 of the last 10 winners were 1st or 2nd in the betting.
Summary - KALAHARI KING and Tatenan are joint top-rated but Kalahari King is the one to be on although neither will probably offer much in the way of value. This flat track should be ideal for the Arkle runner up and the decent ground will suit him better than Tatenen.

KALAHARI KING – WIN @ 3

Trends – 6 of the last 10 winners finished out of the frame or fell LTO. 6 of the last 10 winners were priced between 6/1 and 16/1. 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 to 8. 9 of the last 10 had previous wins over 2m 4f or further.
Summary – Al Eile will be a big threat to gain an amazing 4th win in this race but CELESTIAL HALO could still be improving after a narrow 2nd in the Champion Hurdle. He ran well as a stayer on the flat and runs as if this 2m 4f trip will be right up his street and 4/1 looks a great price. However, 5yo’s have a poor record in this and he did have a tough race at the Champion Hurdle so I won’t go overboard. For an each-way bet KATCHIT appeals at 14/1, particularly as he fits most of the stats and has proven form round here. He looks ready for a step up in trip.

CELESTIAL HALO – WIN @ 5
KATCHIT – EACH WAY @ 15

Trends – 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out. 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last 4 starts. 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 to 8.
Summary – Generally a very weak trends race. Star De Mohaison took a crashing fall on Thursday and may not have recovered sufficiently. PETER POLE is top-rated, has looked a very progressive French recruit. He has cruised home his last 2 starts and fits the stats so is worth an each-way bet at 8/1.

PETER POLE – EACH WAY @ 9

Trends – 7 of the last 10 came from the top-8 in the betting. All of the last 10 winners had won over 3m+. 9 and 10yo’s have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. All of the last 10 winners carried 11-1 or less.
Summary – I performed a trends analysis of this race last month and suggested STATE OF PLAY and OFFSHORE ACCOUNT as two bets with DARKNESS and Kilbeggan Blade as outsiders depending on the ground. The ground is not suitable for Kilbeggan Blade but it’s ok for Darkness and it’s highly significant he is top-rated so he joins my other two for 3 against the field. He won the Feltham as a novice, was 3rd in the Sun Alliance and has won half his chase starts. He has a touch of class and is very lightly raced due to injury. The stable went close with Mely Moss in this in 200 and Wayne Hutchinson takes over in the saddle from Dom Elsworth.
State of Play is not the biggest but neither was Seagram and he is a class act having won the Hennessy a few seasons back. The ground is in his favour, he goes well fresh and he has had an ideal prep for this.
Offshore Account is my dark horse, has only had one run over hurdles since returning from injury but was generally a sound-jumping, Grade1 winning novice and coould be in here off a handy mark.
I could throw in Rambling Minster as well as he looks to have a very strong chance but I will stick with the 3 main ones I advised last month and throw in Rambling Minster for a full cover forecast/tricast bet with my 3 main selections.
My Will looks rank bad value to me. 1 win from his last 18 runs and will have to put in his best ever performance in the most competitive race of the year ? Many Gold Cup 2nd's and 3rd's have gone close here but he was beaten 25+ lengths 5th in the Gold cup. He is also a French-bred and they have a poor record in this.

DARKNESS – EACH WAY @ 21
STATE OF PLAY – EACH WAY @ 15 (advised at 28/1)
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT – EACH WAY @ 34 (advised at 66/1)

Trends – All of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 20/1. All of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less. 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Summary – Although not fitting the stats, MOHAYER has to go in as he is likely to be a big price and this race generally goes to those at the foot of the handicap.
STRADBROOK ran well at Cheltenham just behind American Trilogy and that won ran well on Friday. This decent ground and flat track should be right up his street.

MOHAYER – EACH WAY @ 51 ?
STRADBROOK – EACH WAY @ 17 ?

Trends – 8 of the last 10 won at least once that season. 4 of the last 5 were priced 25/1+. 7 of the last 10 were Irish bred.
Summary – I’m not a fan of bumpers so i will just take the stats and go with GIORDANO BRUNO.

GIORDANO BRUNO – EACH WAY @ 12 ?

The 50k challenge bets for Friday are –:

Chep225 FISHGUARD FILLY
Aint250 CELESTIAL HALO
Newc305 MONFILS MONFILS
Chep405 MANGO CATCHER
Wolv820 JORD

Thursday Update
Poor day yesterday with OGEE being the only one but at least at a decent price of 33/1. I Knew I should have gone for Voy Por Ustedes :-( It has also been frustrating the last few days to see some of my Cheltenham non-performers like Tartak and Killyglen hose up.

The 50k Challenge hit the rails so tomorrow I have to hit a target of around 90 quid. I’m going to do what Brian Hogg does as recommended in his website and try to get the 90 back over 3 days. So I will have an set target of 30 over the next 3 days which will hopefully reduce the risk to the bank.

03/04/2009 Aintree 14:00 American Trilogy Hills £22.60 3.75 £8.22 L -£8.22 £1,121.61

03/04/2009 Aintree 14:35 Hercomesthetruth B365 £30.81 3.25 £13.69 L -£13.69 £1,107.91

03/04/2009 Aintree 16:20 Karabak Hills £44.51 2.87 £23.80 L -£23.80 £1,084.11

03/04/2009 Wolverhampton 18:50 Stonecrabstomorrow Hills £68.31 4 £22.77 L -£22.77 £1,061.34

Dark Ranger became a lay in the end and they did quite well with Empowered in the 8:50 losing for a profit of just under 10pts on the day and that bank is a slow grinder on an upward curve.

LayBets

Date Course Time Selection Odds Stake W/L P/L Bank

03/04/2009 Bath 15:20 Onemix 1.80 14.68 W -11.74 1139.40

03/04/2009 Wolverhampton 20:20 Dark Ranger 1.78 14.74 L 14.74 1154.14

03/04/2009 Wolverhampton 20:50 Empowered 1.73 14.63 L 14.63 1168.77

03/04/2009 Wolverhampton 21:20 Seek The Fair land 1.53 15.23 W -8.07 1160.70

Aintree Festival – Friday Analysis

2009-04-03T00:16:00.001+01:00

2:00 highstreetvouchers.com top novices’ hurdle

Trends – 8 of the last 10 finished in the first 4 last time. 7 of the last 10 were 5/1 or shorter. 6 of the last 10 were 5yo’s.
Summary – This is all about AMERICAN TRILOGY who is well clear on the ratings and can get Nicholls and Walsh of to a flyer. He won well at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle and this track should suit even better. Somersby is an interesting one for next season and can chase him home. Howard Johnson generally does well at this meeting so Red Moloney is respected, forget his run last time, conditions will be much more ideal for him here but I have American Trilogy as probably the best bet on the card IF he reproduces his County Hurdle run.

AMERICAN TRILOGY – WIN @ 5/2

2:35 matalan.co.uk mildmay novices’ chase

Trends – 9 of the last 10 winners had won twice that season. 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top-3 in the betting. 7 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham. All of the last 10 winners had raced 4, 5 or 6 times over fences.
Summary – HERECOMESTHETRUTH is top-rated but there is not much between the top-3 in the market although I really like Paul Nicholls chaser. Of the top-3, only Massini’s Maguire ran at Cheltenham but he only has one win this season and had a hard race in the Sun Alliance. SHINING GALE is not rated too far behind the selection so may be worth an each-way instead of taking the short odds about the favourite. He smashed the track record last time and he has been a revelation since a successful wind operation at the start of the season. At the available odds he rates an attractive each-way bet but Nicholls chaser should prove too tough.

HERECOMESTHETRUTH – WIN @ 9/4
SHINING GALE – EACH WAY @ 8/1

3:10 john smith’s melling chase

Trends –8 of the last 10 finished in the first 3 last time. 8 of the last 10 came from the top-2 in the market. 9 of the last 10 were priced at 5/1 or less. 9 of the last 10 ran at the Cheltenham festival. 3 dual winners in the last 10 years.
Summary – Everything about the stats and the ratings tells me that Voy Por Ustedes is going to take all the beating and I was almost going to go with him but sometimes I just have to go with my gut feeling and that tells me that this track should be right up NACARAT’S street. He really impressed me when I tipped him up for the Racing Post chase and I just feel he could get away from the favourite round here. If you throw in the McCoy factor, the price and the fact that VPU didn’t jump well last time but still had a hard race, I think it’s the right play. Nacarat needs to improve but he has been doing so and might not have stopped yet. This is one race where I think I may be on the wrong one so I’ll play small stakes but I have to go with what I think is the value.

NACARAT – WIN @ 7/2

3:45 john smith’s topham chase

Trends – 6 of the last 10 winners finished first or 2nd last time. 9 of the last 10 had run within the last 5 weeks. 7 of the last 10 were aged 8 or 9.
Summary – NEW LITTLE BRIC tops the ratings and if the blinkers have the same effect as last time he can run a huge race. Stablemate GWANAKO is the preferred mount of Ruby Walsh so that has to be respected and he is worth a cover bet for the bet on New Little Bric.

NEW LITTLE BRIC – EACH WAY @ 14/1
GWANAKO – WIN COVER BET @ 8/1

4:20 citroen sefton novices’ hurdle

Trends – 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 4 LTO. 9 of the last 10 winners has won at least once in their last 3 runs. All of the last 10 winners had won at least twice that season. All of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
Summary – KARABAK’S 2nd to Mikael D’Haguenet in the Ballymore is arguably better form than the win of Weapon’s Amnesty in the Albert Bartlett from the 2nd Pride of Dulcote. The fact he got so close was a great effort and this flat track should be ideal. 9/4 is a little skinnier than ideal but I think he will take all the beating. Outsiders have done well in this though and one that I saw last time which impressed me was Nicky Richard's’ Merrydown. He has to show a lot of improvement but one I prefer at bigger odds for a small each-way is Ogee. He was very impressive at Uttoxeter and at a best-priced 33/1 represents each-way value with his stable in good form right now.

KARABAK – WIN @ 9/4

4:55 totepool handicap hurdle

Trends – 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 to 8. All of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season. 8 of the last 10 winners ran in March. 8 of the last 10 winners had an official rating between 126 and 134.
Summary – Two horses stand out on the stats, mainly because of the narrow winning official ratings. CAPTAIN AMERICO had entries in the Graded events so could be in here off a very lenient mark, he also fits the stats. I’ll also throw in top-rated ANDYTOWN for a small cover bet on the two each-way’s but he probably has it to do from a 15lb higher mark but he was very impressive at Cheltenham and like this ground. Gunner Jack is an outsider who fits the stats and could make the frame, 28/1 looks big.

CAPTAIN AMERICO – EACH WAY @ 9/1
ANDYTOWN – WIN COVER @ 11/1

5:30 john smith’s mares’ bumper

Summary – No real trends for this race but the bang in-form Alan King has a good recent record in this so I’ll stick with top-rated POLLY POTTER and have a bet each-way on her at 10/1. However, in Raceform Update Charlie Mann tipped up EASTERN PARAMOUR as his best bet of the whole meeting and the fact she is 2nd on my ratings makes her a value each-way, so I’ll also throw that one in the mix at 16/1 but these types of races are not ones to get too carried away in.

HOLLY POTTER – EACH WAY @ 10/1
EASTERN PARAMOUR – EACH WAY @ 16/1

Friday 50k Challenge Bets –:

Aint 2:00 AMERICAN TRILOGY
Aint 2:35 HERECOMESTHETRUTH
Aint 4:20 KARABAK
Wolv 6:50 STONECRABSTOMORROW
Wolv 8:20 DARK RANGER

Thursday Review

A great day yesterday, albeit tinged with sadness at the loss of Exotic Dancer. This horse was very unlucky to be around at the same time as Kauto Star and Denman otherwise he could have been a dual Gold Cup winner. He put his heart into his races though and sadly it was too much for him. He will be missed.
Was great to see Big Bucks win, despite denying the win portion of our Mighty Man bet. Walkon won very easily and will be a very interesting taking on his elders next year. Madison De Berlais was slightly fortunate that Denman fell but it’s all about the jumping and a nice 16/1 wager was landed while Trust Fund won very well in the Fox Hunters. As at Cheltenham, I had no luck in the handicaps and I’ll have to re-evaluate my approach to these, although Oh Crick was 2nd on the ratings and I should really have gone with him as well as Moon Over Miami but it’s easy in hindsight.

As far as the 50k challenge goes, I hit the target with the first selection Walkon which was just as well as the other selections failed to fire which I can only put down to the competitiveness of the racing and bad selecting on my part. I will re-calculate at the weekend as to the best way to proceed with this strategy as it doesn’t suffer long losing streaks too well. I need to tighten things up a bit and possibly spread the 50k challenge bets over 2 days (or leave alone) if I feel it’s too trappy. Anyway, the bank is up to just shy of 1130 so a 12% return in just 5 days is ok by me.

50k Challenge
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Bookie	Target	Dec Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
02/04/2009	Aintree	14:35	Walkon	B365	£22.15	3.5	£8.86	W	£22.15	£1,129.83
02/04/2009	Taunton	15:30	Warpath							£1,129.83
02/04/2009	Aintree	16:55	Chapoturgeon							£1,129.83
02/04/2009	Kempton	18:25	Fremen							£1,129.83

The lay bets did ok, about half won and half lost which is always a good thing given the prices I am laying at and a small profit on the day was achieved, especially as one of the losers I managed to lay at 1/20 ! I was out in the evening and forgot about the odds-on shot in the 8:50 at Kempton. Fortunately, it won so that saved me a little bit and a profit of just over 15pts on the day was achieved.

LayBets
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
02/04/2009	Aintree	14:00	Big Bucks	1.80	14.33	W	-11.46	1125.78
02/04/2009	Taunton	14:20	Gold Gun	1.80	13.30	L	13.30	1139.08
02/04/2009	Taunton	14:55	Bergo	1.05	14.81	W	-0.74	1138.34
02/04/2009	Aintree	15:10	Denman	2.00	14.30	L	14.30	1152.64
02/04/2009	Leicester	15:20	Sayif	1.63	14.08	W	-8.87	1143.77
02/04/2009	Taunton	16:05	Apache Dawn	1.91	14.71	L	14.71	1158.48
02/04/2009	Taunton	17:15	Prairie Spirit	1.50	14.68	W	-7.34	1151.14

Aintree Festival – Thursday Analysis

2009-04-01T20:58:00.001+01:00

I feel the combination of the trends and my own ratings was a fairly successful one at Cheltenham so I’m going to continue that method this week for Aintree. I recommend getting on early with a bookie that offers best price-guaranteed.

2:00 john smith’s liverpool hurdle

Trends - Not too many trends to go on for this as it’s only been in the go since 2004 but all the winners had previously placed at the Aintree festival before and all 5 winners were in the top-3 in the market. This narrows it down to Big Bucks, Mighty Man and Fair Along.
Summary - The top-3 in the market have placed at the festival before, Big Bucks won the mildmay novice chase last season, MIGHTY MAN won this race in 2006 and 2007 while Fair Along was 2nd in a novice chase 2 years ago. As you can see from my ratings, Big Buck’s is clear rated by a full 10pts and should take all the beating, unfortunately there is no 13/2 for us to get stuck into this time and he is likely to be un-backable at odds-on. Fair Along may benefit from the first time tongue-tie but he was poor in the World Hurdle and finished very tired. A better option may be to have a small each-way on Mighty Man at 5/1 who is 8lb better off with Big Buck’s and back at his favourite track. He put in a great effort finishing 5th in the World Hurdle after a long absence, if he places we get our money back and he probably stands the best chance of shocking the favourite.

MIGHTY MAN – EACH WAY @ 5/1

2:35 matalan anniversary 4-y-o novice hurdle

Trends - The key trend for me in this race is that 9 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham festival which is not a good omen for Hebridean followers. Clearly the competitive nature of the racing there prepares the younger horses well for this race, as in theory they should be able to recover from exertions quicker than their elders. This is backed up by the stat that 43 runners have lined up following a break of 29 days or more with only one of them winning, so a recent run seems beneficial. We can also rule out a bit of chaff from the field with the stat that 9 of the last 10 winners had a win within their last 3 outings. French breds have won 5 of the last 10.
Summary – The horse that is top-rated by 8pts and also fits all the stats is WALKON who should take the beating here after his narrow defeat in the Triumph. Hebridean has been off the track longer than ideal and has something to find form-wise, but this speedy track should suit him. He would be a stats-buster though so the danger is likely to come from Starluck who faded up the hill at Cheltenham and may find Aintree more to his liking but he still has something to find with the selection and I think their prices should be the other way round.

WALKON – WIN @ 11/4

3:10 totesport bowl

Trends – 9 of the last 9 winners ran last time at Cheltenham. Apart from that there are not too many clear trends for this race. Denman is top-rated but not by much from Exotic Dancer although he should prove fresher and tough to beat. This looks a race to watch ideally but the Pipe yard have won 3 of the last 5 renewals of this event, including with Our Vic last time. I can’t have him on his run last time but MADISON DU BERLAIS is only rated 1pt behind him in 4th on my ratings. He may just not like Cheltenham and we saw what he did to Denman on his previous outing on a flat track at Kempton. He didn’t have as hard a race as either of the top-2 on the ratings in the Gold Cup so I am going to recommend a small each-way on Madison Du Berlais for an interest but I expect Denman to prove too strong.

MADISON DU BERLAIS – EACH WAY @ 16/1

3:45 john smith’s fox hunters’ chase

Trends – The market is the best guide to this race. 9 of the last 10 winners came from the first three in the market and all the last 10 winners were priced at 8/1 or shorter. 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last 2 starts while 7 finished in the first 3 last time.
Summary – Stats-wise it rests between Agus A Vic and TRUST FUND withthe latter being top-rated and clear on my ratings clearly worth a decent each-way bet at 8/1.

TRUST FUND – EACH WAY @ 8/1

4:20 john smiths’ red rum handicap chase

Trends – 9 of the last 10 winners were priced at 12/1 or shorter. All of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 and 9.
Summary – The age and price stat look pretty strong and eliminating the 6 and 10yo’s takes out those ranked 2nd to 5th on the ratings so that should leave the way clear for MOON OVER MIAMI to get a deserved success following on from his close 2nd in the Grand Annual and he can reverse form with Oh Crick. Stan actually bucked a couple of trends when winning last year and such is the form of Hobbs and Johnson at the moment that I will also throw an e/w bet on LORD HENRY in there who looks overpriced at 22/1.

MOON OVER MIAMI – EACH WAY @ 10/1
LORD HENRY – EACH WAY @ 22/1

4:55 john smiths’ manifesto novices chase

Summary – A new race so no trends to go on. I will rely on the ratings and stick with CHAPOTURGEON who was visually impressive in the Jewson and could be even better around here. He could prove tough to peg back but Planet of Sound does rate the main danger.

CHAPOTURGEON – WIN @ 2/1

5:30 silver cross handicap hurdle

Trends – Irish-bred runners have won 9 of the last 10 renewals. 8 of the last 10 winners were double-figure odds. 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top-4 LTO.
Summary – I’m going to go for 3 in this race as it looks that wide open. The first in there is HERNANDO ROYAL who beat subsequent impressive winner Hills Of Aran last time and is top-rated. The second in there is PRINCE TAIME who represents the top-connections of Hobbs and Johnson. He won well last time and earlier showed he can handle the big hurly burly of races like this when 3rd in the Imperial Cup. However, neither of these are Irish bred so I’m putting in AURORAS ENCORE as well who let us down a bit at Cheltenham but scored well last time and the track should suit.

HERNANDO ROYAL – EACH WAY
PRINCE TAIME – EACH WAY
AURORAS ENCORE – EACH WAY

Thursday 50k Challenge bets..

Aint 235 Walkon
Taun 330 Warpath
Aint 455 Chapoturgeon
Kemp 625 Fremen

Wednesday Review

An excellent day on Wednesday, especially with the odds-on lays with only one odds-on shot winning from the 6 on the day and a profit of almost 65pts on the day.

LayBets
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
01/04/2009	Exeter	14:10	Raider Of The East	1.83	14.39	L	14.39	1086.85
01/04/2009	Lingfield	14:30	Shabib	1.40	14.84	L	14.84	1101.69
01/04/2009	Lingfield	15:00	Don Pele	1.73	15.16	L	15.16	1116.85
01/04/2009	Exeter	15:10	Cresswell Willow	1.63	13.84	L	13.84	1130.69
01/04/2009	Kempton	18:50	Ravi River	1.67	14.80	L	14.80	1145.49
01/04/2009	Kempton	19:20	Respite	1.57	14.47	W	-8.25	1137.25

The 50k Challenge target was hit in the 2nd race when Mr Willis scored in the 4:30 at Lingfield and the bank stands at a healthy £1107.

50k Challenge
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Bookie	Target	Dec Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
01/04/2009	Lingfield	16:00	Melt	PP	£21.72	3	£10.86	L	-£10.86	£1,075.09
01/04/2009	Lingfield	16:30	Mr Willis	SJ	£32.58	3	£16.29	W	£32.58	£1,107.67
01/04/2009	Lingfield	17:00	Waterloo Dock
01/04/2009	Kempton	19:50	Cross The Line
01/04/2009	Kempton	20:50	Mexican Pete

Wednesday Bets

2009-03-31T19:13:00.003+01:00

Leaving Catterick aside, here are the 50k challenge bets for Wednesday, and it’s a late start.

Lingfield 4:00 MELT
Lingfield 4:30 MR WILLIS
Lingfield 5:00 WATERLOO DOCK
Kempton 7:50 CROSS THE LINE
Kempton 8:50 MEXICAN PETE

If any of these are non-runners or end up evens or odds-on then MEKONG MISS is my backup in the 9:20 race.

Tuesday Review
I was right to leave the racing alone on Tuesday, it was pretty dire stuff. Perhaps I need to look into trying a bit of trading on days like that but I was kept busy with some Raceform Interactive analysis of odds-on favourites where I picked up a few useful tips. This mainly involved research into varying stakes on the lays depending on the course, trainer, headgear, time of year etc etc and adjusting stakes appropriately. Hopefully it will help increase profits. It’s obviously odds-dependent but I would rather the shorter-odds on shots won instead of the bigger prices ones but ultimately if more than 50% of odds-on shots win in a day it’s going to be a struggle to return a profit so I am also going to look into laying 1/2 the stake at the SP price and 1/2 at 10% shorter in-running to see if they get matched or not. From what I have observed, the prices can often drop markedly. So a loss on the day of just a little over 3pts.

Date	Course	Time	Selection	Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
31/03/2009	Wetherby	14:30	Bow School	1.80	14.03	W	-11.22	1064.38
31/03/2009	Folkestone	14:55	Hi Shinko	1.63	14.00	W	-8.82	1055.56
31/03/2009	Southwell	15:50	The Hague	1.73	14.49	L	14.49	1070.05
31/03/2009	Folkestone	16:05	Imaam	1.80	14.49	W	-11.59	1058.45
31/03/2009	Wetherby	16:45	Pairc Na Gcapall	1.73	14.01	L	14.01	1072.46

Grand National Sweepstake & Monday Review

2009-03-30T19:08:00.003+01:00

I've setup a Grand National sweepstake if anyone fancies it ? £2 a pop and you can select up to 2 horses. 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th get paid out with the winner getting 50% of the pot..just a bit of fun. Any non-runners and you get your money back.

http://tinyurl.com/dclhal

I can’t find a single runner I feel confident enough to include for the 50k challenge bets on Tuesday with, it looks a shocking days racing and I’ll just do the odds-on lays and a bit of reading up for Aintree and some Raceform Interactive stats-analysis.
As I said, I don’t really want to include turf horses in the 50k challenge bets yet as it’s a tough time of year and probably not until May will I start to follow it seriously. Having said that, here are 3 that I was considering using, be interesting to see if I made the right decision or not..

Folk 255 AAHAYGIRL
Weth 305 SCALE BANK
Folk 405 IMAAM

Monday Review
A good day yesterday for the 50k Challenge Bets. The first bet Mongorno got touched off but Desperate Dan did the business to take the balance up to just shy of £1086.

50k Challenge
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Bookie	Target	Dec Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
30/03/2009	Newcastle	14:40	Mongorno	SJ	£21.29	4	£7.10	L	-£7.10	£1,057.56
30/03/2009	Wolverhampton	14:50	Desperate Dan	B365	£28.39	2.38	£20.57	W	£28.39	£1,085.95
30/03/2009	Newcastle	15:40	Dancing Dik							£1,085.95
30/03/2009	Lingfield	16:00	Takeover Bid							£1,085.95
30/03/2009	Newcastle	16:40	Karmadice							£1,085.95

The lay bets didn’t do quite as well with 3 odds-on lays winning and two losing but only a small loss of less than 2pts and the balance stands at 1075’ish.

Date	Course	Time	Selection	Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
30/03/2009	Wolverhampton	14:20	Smokey Rye	1.83	15.00	W	-12.45	1065.40
30/03/2009	Lingfield	14:30	Kipchak	1.49	15.00	W	-7.35	1058.05
30/03/2009	Newcastle	15:40	Presque Perdre	2.00	15.00	L	15.00	1073.05
30/03/2009	Lingfield	16:00	Set The Trend	1.73	15.00	L	15.00	1088.05
30/03/2009	Lingfield	16:30	Big Bound	1.83	15.00	W	-12.45	1075.60

GOLF – US MASTERS BETS

2009-03-30T17:10:00.001+01:00

I like to have a few bets at this stage on the US Masters as it's only a few weeks away now. I was impressed with ZACH JOHNSON's play at the weekend in the Arnold Palmer tournament. He won the AT&T the month after winning the 2007 Masters. He then finished 20th at Augusta last year which was a very good effort but he struggled for most of the season until winning the Texas Open at the tail-end of last season. He has started this year well with a win in the Sony Open and a 3rd at the weekend and appears to be peaking at exactly the right time. Given he has been there and done it before at Augusta but won't have the tag of 'defending champion' this time, he rates a decent value each-way bet at 40/1 with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and a few others.

The 2nd guy I like is GEOFF OGILVY. Ogilvy has won 3 WGC events (2 in the last year), is a US Open winner and his confidence is sky-high following his win in the Australian PGA event and opening US tour event, the Mercedes at the start of the year. He also ranks 1st on tour for putts per gir and putting will be essential at Augusta so at 25/1 he is the 2nd one on the list.

The 3rd selection is PADRAIG HARRINGTON. He won the Open and the US PGA last year. He also has a 5th and 7th in the last 2 US Masters and is clearly getting to grips with the place. At 18/1 he again looks like decent each-way value for the first Major of the year.

Finally, I always like to throw one guy in for fun, regardless of their form. My only criteria is that they fit a few of the stats for the US Masters…

- 64 of the last 104 top-3 finishers and 18 of the last 28 winners had a previous top-5 in the Masters
- Only 13 players have made the top-3 having missed the cut the previous year and only 1 winner (Woods)
- In the last 28 years only 3 players have not broken 70 in a previous Masters

The final guy is a local guy who went to Georgia Tech and has always been very consistent in the Masters. Last year he had his best finish when 3rd and it’s STEWART CINK at 80/1. After that he won just one PGA event but his positive associations with the area and the course make him an e/w bet.

ZACH JOHNSON @ 40/1
GEOFF OGILVY @ 25/1
PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 18/1
STEWART CINK @ 80/1

Monday Bets

2009-03-30T00:59:00.001+01:00

Here are the selections for the 50k Challenge bets. Of these 5 I have Takeover Bid for the in-form Mark Johnston as the best bet of the day just ahead of Mongorno for Ferdy Murphy.

Newc 240 MONGORNO
Wolv 250 DESPERATE DAN
Newc 340 DANCING DIK
Ling 400 TAKEOVER BID
Newc 440 KARMADICE

As for the lay bets, likely lays are..

Ling 230 KIPCHAK
Ling 430 BIG BOUND
Newc 340 PRESQUE PERDRE

Sunday Update

2009-03-29T17:46:00.001+01:00

I love it once the clocks have ‘sprung’ forward. Not only does it mean that I can have more of the morning/early avo as spare time but also gives more time to prepare for the afternoon action so I was able to enjoy some early spring sunshine and get the bike out for the first time in ages and still come back to finalise bets just before 2pm. I can live with a 3/4 hour day ;-)

A good day for the 50k challenge bets, despite a rookie error. I jumped in early on the first selection Desert Storm at 6/4 only to see the price collapse into evens, so it actually became a lay bet ! I’ve made it a rule not to back horses at evens or shorter because a larger stake is required and it cancels out any lay bets as part of the lay system. Fortunately, the 2nd horse in the 50k challenge won. There was also a bonus here, as bookies offer best-odds guaranteed I thought the 7/2 about Nearby represented decent value so calculated the stakes required to retrieve the 20.40 profit along with the 13.60 stake lost on Desert Storm. The price on Nearby drifted out to 6/1 so I actually managed to get a bigger return than expected and a 44 profit returned on the day taking the balance up to just over 1064.

Lessons to be learnt are two-fold. First of all, (1) not to rush in with a bet until close to the off if there is a chance on a selection hitting evens or shorter and (2) when there is no chance of it hitting that price, to take as best an early a price as possible so as to achieve a possible better return than required. I have split the 1k bank across 4 bookies, Hills, Stan James, Paddy Power and Bet365 so I can hopefully achieve the best possible price and all of them offer best-odds guaranteed. It was also re-assuring to see both Description and Classic Cut going on to win. I have a separate account with Boylesports and am using a slightly different strategy with backing my best bets with a stake of 5% of a small bank so managed a return on both those at least. Am also using this account for any ante-post bets, each-way bets etc.

50k Challenge
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Bookie	Target	Dec Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank	Run P&L
28/03/2009			Opening Balance							£1,000.00	£64.66
28/03/2009	Kempton	13:50	Saint Arch	PP	£20.00	4.33	£6.01	W	£20.00	£1,020.00
28/03/2009	Lingfield	14:15	Tanks For That
28/03/2009	Uttoxeter	16:55	Rash Moment
28/03/2009	Lingfield	17:45	Hudibras
28/03/2009	NewAbb	13:50	Desert Storm	PP	£20.40	2.5	£13.60	L	-£13.60	£1,006.40
29/03/2009	NewAb	14:50	Nearby	PP	£34.00	7	£9.71	W	£58.26	£1,064.66
29/03/2009	Kelso	15:15	Description
29/03/2009	Kelso	15:50	Classic Cut

The lay bets did particularly well today with only 3 evens or odds-on shots winning out of a possible 8 for a 54pts profit on the day taking the bank up to just over 1077. I have also discovered today that some odds-on shots drop quite markedly in running so perhaps shorter prices than SP can be achieved when laying these runners, although I will need to research further using the Betfair historical data.

Date	Course	Time	Selection	Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
29/03/2009	NewAbb	13:50	Desert Storm	2.00	15.00	L	15.00	1038.85
29/03/2009	Kelso	14:10	Touch Of Irish	1.90	15.00	W	-13.50	1025.35
29/03/2009	Doncaster	14:30	Makaamem	0.50	15.00	W	7.50	1032.85
29/03/2009	NewAbb	14:50	Kevkat	1.85	15.00	L	15.00	1047.85
29/03/2009	Leopardstown	15:00	Intense Focus	2.00	15.00	L	15.00	1062.85
29/03/2009	Downpatrick	15:45	Borrowaddy	1.73	15.00	L	15.00	1077.85
29/03/2009	NewAbb	16:35	Valley Ride	2.00	15.00	W	-15.00	1062.85
29/03/2009	Kelso	17:00	Robbers Glen	1.67	15.00	L	15.00	1077.85
								54.00

Sunday Bets

2009-03-28T18:51:00.001Z

Pretty poor day on Saturday but at least the 50k challenge got off the ground after Saint Arch won the first at Kempton, so the balance now stands at a grand total of 1020 ;-)

Like I said, early days on the flat but one I like is BARNEY MCGREW at big odds in the 4:15 at Doncaster. He ran a good 2nd to Invincible Force on his last run with Charm School back in 3rd. Over in Ireland in the 1000 Guineas trial at 4:05 sees the reappearance of the 2yo that clocked the fastest Raceform Split Second time last year in CHINTZ. This filly could be worth a small bet and also as a trade for the 1000 Guineas itself as if she scores well her odds are likely to shorten.

I’m leaving Donny and Leopardstown alone on Sunday for the bets for the 50k challenge so am concentrating on these 4 over the sticks, hopefully at least one of these should score otherwise it’s a rollover ;-)

NewAb 150 DESERT STORM
NewAb 250 NEARBY
Kelso 315 DESCRIPTION
Kelso 350 CLASSIC CUT

As far as the lay bets went today…a small loss on the day of –0.75…I am wondering if it is worth leaving Mullins/Walsh out of the lay bets but I’ll continue to monitor and may have to insist on lays at much shorter odds as those winners at close to evens are likely to affect the overall P&L.

Lingfield	14:15	Kangaroo Court	1.94	15.00	W	-14.10	1010.50
Lingfield	14:50	Eradicate	1.72	15.00	L	15.00	1025.50
Navan	15:05	Fosters Cross	1.80	15.00	W	-12.00	1013.50
Uttoxeter	15:10	Le Vert Galant	2.00	15.00	L	15.00	1028.50
Uttoxeter	15:45	Predateur	1.90	15.00	W	-13.50	1015.00
Navan	16:15	Glenfinn Captain	1.50	15.00	L	15.00	1030.00
Navan	17:50	Deutschland	1.41	15.00	W	-6.15	1023.85

Benandonner the Lincoln value

2009-03-27T23:02:00.003Z

Richard Fahey can land the first big race on the opening day of the flat season with BENANDONNER in the 3:55 at Doncaster. The Lincoln is the traditional curtain-raiser to the start of the flat and it's hard to know if the draw will affect the outcome after the recent changes to the track at Doncaster, so it's best to not try to overthink it. Benandonner ran a good trial for this when 4th in a listed contest at Wolverhampton recently. 2nd in the Spring Mile and the Spring Cup last season, he is clearly very effective over this mile trip. The trainer has a good record in handicaps and at 16/1 he rates decent each-way value. Although a 9yo, previous winner Blythe Knight ran a good trial for this when 2nd at Kempton last month but a bigger danger could be DOCOFTHEBAY who is overpriced at 28/1 based on his 2nd in the Hunt Cup last season in first time blinkers, he has slipped down the handicap to a winnable mark and the blinkers are back on today with his optimum conditions. Those two will do for me.

The Spring Mile at 2:45 looks wide-open but I like at Kevin Ryan's MAJURO at 16/1 who is well worth an each-way bet. He has been in-form on the all-weather and could be well-handicapped back on turf. The main danger looks to be top-weight Mangham who goes very well fresh and could be worth a cover bet while Flying Cape is another potential improver.

Best bet tomorrow looks to be ERADICATE in the 2:50 at Lingfield for the in-form Henderson/Geraghty duo. I'm hoping he will be odds-against, otherwise he could become a lay bet as part of my laying system of those at evens or odds-on, but he should take all the beating.

Another jumper that is a short price but could take some beating is RASH MOMENT in the 4:55 at Uttoxeter and he can land the hat-trick.

Another trainer in good form is Barry Hills and he can take the 4:30 at Doncaster with ABOVE AVERAGE although as with most races today each-way caution is advisable.

Yet another trainer in f0rm is Mark Johnston and best of his runners on Saturday looks to be SAINT ARCH in the 1:50 at Kempton.

4 Others I like on Saturday that top my ratings are ICELANDIC in the 3:20 at Doncaster, TANKS FOR THAT in the 2:15 at Lingfield, REGAL PARADE in the 4:45 at Kempton and BRONZE CANNON in the 3:35 at Kempton.

Over in Dubai, it's tricky knowing what the weather is going to do but ones I like for a small interest are last year's Lockinge winner CREACHADOIR in the Dubai Duty Free at 3:55. He also ran 2nd in 2007 in the French and Irish 2000 Guineas so clearly has a touch of class over this mile trip. He has recovered from a near-fatal injury so it's a tough ask but it's built into the price at 25/1.

The Sheema Classic at 4:40 could go to KING OF ROME who ran a good 3rd last time in a GP2 over course and distance, represents trainer Mike De Kock, has Johnny Murtagh on board and at double-figure odds could be worth a small e/w bet.

Finally, I'll be kicking off the laying system again, basically I will be laying all horse at evens or shorter in non-handicaps. 15pts lay on the jumps, 25pts lay on the flat. The overall running P&L is +12.65 and I will be looking to increase the 'stakes' in a few weeks or so if all goes well.

As far as the 50k challenge bets go. I am starting with 1000 and aiming to make 2% of the bank each day. I will stop at a winner once the 2% target has been hit and take a percentage out each week as a 'wage'. Obviously this will be low to start with but hopefully as the bank grows so will the take-out. t the moment I am avoiding turf flat races until the season has bedded in. So the target for Saturday is 20 quid and the 5 horses that I will be using for it are -:

1:50 Kempton Saint Arch

2:15 Lingfield Tanks For That

2:50 Lingfield Eradicate

4:55 Uttoxeter Rash Moment

5:45 Lingfield Hudibras

Fontwell 3:55 HILLS OF ARAN

2009-03-27T12:25:00.001Z

Am feeling refreshed after a week away to blow away those post-Cheltenham cobwebs. One that looks good at a decent price of around 7/1 today is HILLS OF ARAN in the 3:55 at Fontwell. With 8 runners he really appeals for a decent each-way bet today. It wasn't that long ago he was running 2nd in the Rendlesham to Kasbah Bliss, followed thatt up with a 3rd in a Grade 2 round here behind Lough Derg and then last time ran a brave 2nd to Hernando Royal in a listed handicap hurdle conceding upwards of 18lb. This is probably his easiest task for a few races and with Tamarinbleu in the field he is probably a little bit better in than he would be were he not. The key difference though is the booking of Choc Thornton who replaces the 5llb claimer that has been riding him on his last 4 runs. That could make the difference and I can see him running a big race from the front.

Lingfield Winter Derby - RE BAROLO

2009-03-21T10:02:00.005Z

Premio Loco is a short-priced favourite for the Winter Derby in the 3:05 at Lingfield today but I feel he is not a value bet given that he has to prove his stamina at this trip. Favourites also have a relatively poor record in this race so I feel he is worth taking on.
The one I like is RE BAROLO who is well worth an each-way punt at the best odds available 11/2. I can't have him out of the frame and he has a strong chance of the win given he won the trial race for this over course and distance which has provided 4 previous winners off this race. He is also in the favoured age range for this race, and his official rating of 107 is also a trend fit.

Transitions Championship Golf Bets

2009-03-19T08:48:00.002Z

It's been a while since my last set of golf bets so thought I would post these up for this week's tournament in the US, the Transitions Championship. I'm going with these 5 guys this week all who have either shown decent current form, or form here in the past.

Alvaros Quiros 60/1
Rod Pampling 33/1
Tim Clark 33/1

Carl Pettersson 66/1

Chad Campbell 66/1

03/04/2009	Aintree	14:00	American Trilogy	Hills	£22.60	3.75	£8.22	L	-£8.22	£1,121.61
03/04/2009	Aintree	14:35	Hercomesthetruth	B365	£30.81	3.25	£13.69	L	-£13.69	£1,107.91
03/04/2009	Aintree	16:20	Karabak	Hills	£44.51	2.87	£23.80	L	-£23.80	£1,084.11
03/04/2009	Wolverhampton	18:50	Stonecrabstomorrow	Hills	£68.31	4	£22.77	L	-£22.77	£1,061.34