By Logan Phillips
Date: November 8th, 2022

At long last, it’s election day, and the American people will finally get the chance to make their voices heard. This year is easily one of the most competitive midterms of the last half-century.

Over the last three weeks, Republicans have gained considerable ground across the country. Before their surge, Democrats were clear - though far from decisive - favorites to win a Senate majority. Now, the Senate is locked in a true tossup. Democrats are lucky that they had a big enough lead in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania to suffer some bad headwinds and still emerge with a very serious shot of winning. I still have them as the narrow favorites in all four races, although their edge in Georgia and Pennsylvania is now less than 0.5%.

Republicans are slightly favored to flip Nevada. This race has been surprising given the shift elsewhere in the country. Catherine Cortez Masto has been a tough out for Republican Adam Laxalt. If she had lost the same ground as her fellow Democrats, she'd be a heavy underdog, but she still has a 45% chance of pulling off an upset.

The most likely outcome is a range of results between Republicans controlling 54 seats and Democrats controlling 51 seats. Democrats could potentially win more than 51 if there’s a medium polling miss nationally or locally in their favor. That would increase their odds of an upset Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which are still reasonably competitive. If Republicans benefit from a history polling error - likely bigger than 2020 - they'd have an outside shot in Washington or Colorado.

I realize this is a broad range of feasible outcomes. Forgive my lack of precision, but 2022 is not a normal election. When I designed the Senate forecast, I tested it on every election cycle since 1970 to ensure it was as accurate as possible. The single most competitive election in terms of the chance both parties have of winning the majority is the 2022 election cycle.

The House is more favorable to Republicans. I have them with just under a 70% chance of winning and am on track to win 223 races. You might have noticed that my Forecast gives Democrats a higher chance of winning than most of my competitors. I think the key lesson from the last few election cycles is that misses are now more likely in polling and election forecasting, primarily because far fewer people are agreeing to answer calls from pollsters.

No one will be surprised if the polls underate Republicans again. I also wouldn’t be surprised if pollsters overcompensated for their mistakes in 2020 and 2016, and underestimated Democrats this time around. In fact, Democrats would be on track for 217.6 to win the House if outperform my projections by 1.56% nationally - and they need 218 to keep their majority. Of course, that cuts both ways, and the Republican's potential majority could balloon to 240 seats if they benefit from a polling error.

How to Watch Election Day like a Professional

At 4 pm, RacetotheWH will be launching our live House and Senate Forecast - our best prediction at the odds both parties have of winning a majority, updated throughout the night and into the next few days as results pour in from across the country. We will have an up-to-date prediction for every single state and Congressional race across the country. 

The Forecast Change Throughout Night Based on Three Factors:

1. The results from National Exit Polls, and for Senate races, race-specific exit polls where available

2. Race calls by the Associated Press.

3. The actual results in races where at least 98% of the vote has been counted, so long as the outstanding vote isn't likely to disproportionately help one party. We will use this to assess if Democrats or Republicans are on track to outperform our projections.

The last thing we want to do is to cause a heart attack in all of our viewers by having far too rapid and extreme shifts back and forth. I’ve designed the live forecast to be cautious, especially in the first few races. The results from election day will have a far greater influence once we get a more substantial number of races called.

Our forecast is also designed to be as clear and easy to read as possible, so you can see which races have been called most recently, and where the outstanding vote is left to come from.

Finally, here’s our guide for watching election day like a professional. Switch between the images to see which states will close in each hour, and which key races to follow across the country.

Timeline for Election Day

This map shows when the polls will close across the country, using Eastern Standard Time. Switch between the other images to read about the key races to follow in each state

The first batch of races will come from parts of Kentucky and Indiana at 6 pm - excluding the competitive IN-01, which is in a different time zone. These races are all Safe D or Safe R

At 7 pm, we have our first batch of highly competitive races. Keep a very close eye on the FL-13, IN-1, VA-2, and VA-7. If Democrats can win 3/4 of these races, it's a signal that the House Majority could be in play.

At 7:30 pm, we'll start getting results in Ohio and North Carolina, both of which count fast! There are four ultra-competitive races in the NC-13, OH-1, OH-9, and OH-13. Will some of the more extreme Republicans underperform tomorrow? The NC-1 and OH-9 will provide our first clue

The floodgates will open at 8 pm. In the North East, we'll see if Republicans can compete in the handful of democratic districts where they have polled well. Watch RI-2, and CT-5. In Maine, Jared Golden hopes to win in a red district. We also have 3 tossups in PA, and 1 in NH.

Early voting has been tremendous in MI, a sign that the abortion referendum could juice turnout. That's a good sign for Democrats, who are favored in 3/4 top races there. We also have two crucial Illinois races (IL-13, IL-17).

Last at 8, we have three crucial races in South Texas that will test whether Republicans can build on their 2020 gains with Latinos. The TX-34 is a tossup (Gonzalez v. Flores). If Dems can upset in the TX-15, or Reps win TX-34, it could say a lot about Texas's future.

At 8:30, Arkansas will close. There are four safe R seats here.

New York closes at 9 - and if the national environment is close, NY could play a decisive role this year. It's home to five critical elections - including 3 in Long Island. The NY Gov race has gotten a ton of press, and that could lead to a high turnout across the board on e-day.

Polls close in the Midwest, and it will be go-time for Cindy Axne, the last survivor of 3 IA D Reps that won in '18. In MN, Craig hopes Dem's strong special election performance in MN-1 is a good sign for her re-election. Bacon is favored in NE-2, but Dems have spent big there.

In the Southwest, Colorado features one of the nation's most fair maps - leading to a tight CO-7 and CO-8. The CO-8 is the closest race out of 435 in my forecast. NM-2 was seen as Tilt R by many early on, but Gabe Vasquez has a great shot at upsetting Yvette Herrell.

At 10 pm, all eyes turn to Nevada - home of not just a key Senate and Gov race, but three uber-tight races. We could see Dems win 3/4 races in Nevada or even a clean sweep by Republicans.

Just like in 2018, expect California to play a starting role in this election. Pay special attention to the CA-27. Mike Garcia is a conservative republican that has been able to keep winning in a blue district. Polls suggest his race will be close.

Could Democrats face headwinds in Oregon, thanks to Kate Brown's popularity issues? Polling in both the Gov races and three House races is quite tight. In Washington, Kim Schrier looks to prove she can win even in more challenging cycles.

Last, at 1 am, polls will close in Alaska. Don't expect the results to come in anytime - between mail-in votes and ranked choice voting, we may not know if Peltola beats out Begich and Palin for more then a week.

By Joseph Brusgard
Date: November 6th, 2022

On June 24th, the Supreme Court overturned Roe V. Wade, and with it, 50 years of precedent. In the immediate aftermath of the decision, state political leaders rushed to act. Some states sought to strengthen reproductive rights in their state. Others, went in the opposite direction, passing new restrictions and bans, signaling the new and uncharted direction of American politics in a post-Roe world.

While uncertainty plagued other states Michigan anticipated the Court’s decision, and acted to keep abortion legal, despite a trigger law, put into effect almost 100 years ago. Now, Michigan will have a ballot initiative this November that will codify the right to abortion. It will almost certainly increase turnout in the state and could even make abortion the central issue of the cycle.

Abortion took center stage in the Michigan Governor Debate between Governor Gretchen Whitmer and GOP Nominee Tudor Dixon

Michigan has become the central battleground in the fight over abortion thanks to a law passed in 1931. It banned abortion in the state with the only exception being to protect the life of the mother. While the law was struck down by the Supreme Court’s decision in Roe V. Wade, it was on track to go back into effect upon the reversal of the decision. State officials had to act quickly to keep abortion from being trapped in legal limbo.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer took action in September of 2021, after Texas passed a six-week abortion ban. Whitmer tried to work with the Republican state legislature to overturn the 1931 law, but attempts went nowhere. After this failure, Whitmer then took the next step, and filed a lawsuit, which would recognize abortion as a right under the state’s constitution, and invalidate the 1931 law as a violation of the state’s due process and equal protection clauses. By May, a judge issued a preliminary injunction, blocking the law from going into effect.

However, that wouldn’t be the final word on the matter. In August, the Michigan Court of Appeals ruled county prosecutors could enforce the ban, meaning it was back in effect. Whitmer immediately filed a motion to temporally restrain it from going into effect, which was granted just hours later. A few weeks later, the law for county prosecutors was blocked by a judge. By September, an Oakland County judge struck down the law entirely, which is where the legal status stands today.

Notably, on the same day that Whitmer filed her lawsuit, Planned Parenthood also filed a lawsuit suing the state of Michigan, in order to preserve abortion access. While attorney generals normally have a responsibility to defend their state from lawsuits, Attorney General Dana Nessel staunchly disagreed with the 1931 law, and thus vowed not to defend it.  For Nessel, the issue was a bit more personal, as she once underwent an abortion to save the life of her twin sons.

It has guided her fight on the issue, and Nessel has made it clear that she will use her power to preserve abortion access and to keep the public informed of the legal status of abortion in the state. Even though her job has heavily focused on legal proceedings, Nessel has also actively fought in support of keeping a ballot initiative on the ballot, one which represents, perhaps, the most crucial bulwark for abortion access in the state.

The Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative, or Proposal 3 as it is also known, is a ballot measure that seeks to codify reproductive rights into the state constitution. As abortion grew to be a top issue for the midterm cycle, Michigan citizens took initiative in getting the proposal on the ballot. The response was so strong, that the initiative got the most signatures for any initiative in state history, belying a level of engagement unlike anything else the state had seen before. Although it almost didn’t pass due to the Michigan Board of State canvassers deadlocking over spacing errors, the state Supreme Court has allowed it to appear on the ballot, meaning that Michigan voters may have a chance to codify abortion, offering it constitutional protection.

While everyone involved in the fight has been successful in their efforts thus far, there is still one last hurdle, and that is to win in November. Michigan has consistently been one of the most competitive states in the nation, meaning that the fight will be tough, and closely fought. However, pro-choice Democratic candidates across the state have been savvy in leaning into the issue. Consequently, abortion has completely reshaped the calculus for Democrats in the state in races up and down the ballot.

Democrats appear to be in a strong position heading into election day in Michigan - even as they've lost ground in many other key swing states over the last few weeks. Democrats have a comfortable lead in the governor’s race (which our forecast rates as likely D) and hold a more moderate, but consistent lead in the Attorney General’s race. Moreover, polling has shown Proposal 3 polling best of all, outrunning the statewide candidates. This broad level of support for the initiative, across the state, further highlights the issue of abortion as being central to Michigan voters.

Referring to a poll released on September 22nd, Pollster Bernie Porn of the Michigan-based polling firm Epic-MRA told us in an exclusive interview: “In August, everyone says if you had inflation and the economy, that’d make abortion seem like an afterthought… I said let’s put them both in and see what happens. Sure enough, inflation is on top, but so is abortion.”

Even as inflation once again returns to being the top issue, later polls conducted by the firm show that abortion is still a big issue in the state, and Whitmer and Nessel have made sure to lean on it and highlight it in their ads. They also have taken time to criticize the extreme pro-life views of their opponents, in comparison. It has undeniably made a difference in these races and has enabled Democrats to maintain a steady lead throughout a tough cycle nationally.

Notably, the statewide contests aren’t the only races feeling an impact. Down ballot, in the battle for the house, abortion has become an issue in Michigan’s most competitive races - including the Democratic leaning 3rd district and the Republican trending 8th district.

It's loomed large in the Michigan 7th - where Elissa Slotkin faces a well-funded challenge from State Senator Tom Barrett. The 7th district voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, and the House race has become one of the most expensive in the country this cycle.

Barrett is one of the most pro-life candidates in the country, only supporting exceptions for the life of the mother, and in the state senate, he supported a resolution supporting the 1931 abortion ban. However, as public sentiment has shifted, shifted away from highlighting these views, including removing mentions of being pro-life from his website. It will be difficult for him to separate, as polling has shown abortion to be a top issue in the district, and consequently, Barrett has trailed in polls.

Further down the ballot, there’s another group of legislative races up for grabs. Michigan’s state Legislature has become the most expensive State Legislature contest in the country. As new lines from redistricting made these contests closer, the chambers are one of the most likely in the nation to flip from Republican to Democratic, and abortion may be a reason for that.

Pollster Bernie Porn told us: “It could have an impact because of the closeness of the redistricting of the State Senate and State Rep. districts. The Democrats are fairly well funded at both levels.” 

Flipping even the state House would be a big achievement for Democrats, who have been locked out since 2010. However, taking the State Senate would be borderline historic. The last time they were in the majority was in the 1980s. A double victory would likely lead to more legislation codifying the protections previously provided by Roe into state law.

The last type of election that will be affected is for the State Supreme Court. The Court ruled earlier this year that it would allow Proposal 3 on the ballot, and it could be important in any potential legal challenges that might come from those who oppose it. The Court currently has a 4-3 Democratic, pro-choice, majority. With such a narrow majority, the outcome could carry consequences, ones that could render the work of those trying to protect reproductive rights moot.

While the political environment has become much more challenging for Democrats in the closing weeks of the campaign, they have a real chance of a strong day in Michigan on election day. The salience of abortion in the Great Lake state has been undeniable, and a potential statewide sweep for Democrats would be a real sign of the potency of pro-choice politics in post-Roe America.

For more on Michigan Politics, explore our Michigan Governor Forecast, and our predictions for the Michigan House races. On election day, we’ll have a live election forecast for the Senate and the House updated after every race is called.

By Logan Phillips
Date: September 30th, 2022

Republicans need to flip just one seat to take the Senate in 2022, but Democrats could make their task harder if they can flip the Keystone state. Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman has consistently led the race, but Republican Celebrity Doctor Mehmet Oz has been slowly narrowing his lead over the last month.

I built a weighted demographic polling average for the Pennsylvania Senate race, and I'm using it to predict how undecided voters may break in the closing weeks of the campaign. As you've probably heard, polling averages are much more predictive than using one poll. That fundamental truth has been an important cornerstone of our election forecasts at RacetotheWH. Let's apply the same practice to crosstabs - giving more weight to high-quality pollsters that recently released polls.

Across over 10 polls, here are the number of undecided voters for each party in Pennsylvania:

Democrats: 7.6%
Republicans: 12.2%
Independents: 22.6%

How would the race look if we adjust the polling with this in mind? We will assume that the undecided will continue to break at the same rate by party. Our polling average shows they are breaking:

1. Democrats - Fetterman: 92.5% - Oz: 7.5%
2. Republicans - Fetterman: 9.1% - Oz: 92.5%
3. Independents - Fetterman: 53.2% - Oz: 46.8%

Next, we estimate the partisan makeup of the electorate. This is an imperfect science to put it lightly, but we'll use the same pollsters' estimate, by their weight in the average. Here's what we get:
Democrats: 41.3%
Republicans: 42.0%
Independents: 16.6%

Now, we've got some valuable information, and we can easily get a rough estimate of how many undecided voters there are by party.
Democrats: 3.1%
Republicans: 4.9%
Independents: 3.7%

We'd expect Fetterman and Oz to gain this many voters, again assuming voters continue to break the same way:

Fetterman:
1. Dems: +2.88%
2. Reps: +0.45%
3. Ind: +1.95%
Total: +5.28% for Fetterman

Mehmet Oz:
1. Dems: +0.23%
2. Reps: +4.47%
3. Ind: +1.71%
Total: +6.41% for Oz

For the overall race, the sample of polls we're using shows John Fetterman leading Dr. Oz 48.0% to 42.0%, which gives him a 6% lead. Once we add the undecided voters, this is the new margin:

Fetterman: 51.9%
Oz: 48.1%
Lead: Fetterman +3.7%

Fetterman Campaign Ad - Labels

I think this provides some clear indication that Oz is likely to narrow the gap, but will continue to trail Fetterman unless the nature of the race changes. How can Oz overcome this? First, he could win if Republicans have a strong and decisive turnout advantage. Second, he could win a a higher percent of undecideds than the share of voters he’s currently winning by party.

There's no easy way to anticipate option 1 until after election day, so let's dig into the second option. The bad news for Oz - it's going to take a lot for him to make up ground. If Dr. Oz wins 80% of undecided independent voters, he'd still trail by 1.4%.  For Oz to take the lead, he'd need to do much better across the board, like winning 98% of Republican undecideds, 10% of Dem undecides, and 87% of Ind undecideds. That's no easy task

This provides some strong evidence that Oz will need to do more than just decisively win the undecided vote. He'll need to win a slice of the voters currently planning to support Fetterman. 

A few things could go wrong here. First, the polling cross tabs could be wrong. We are better positioned here than most because we are using 10 polls, and weighing by pollster accuracy. But cross tabs can still be unreliable. Second, even the top-line polling could be wrong again. If we have a historic 2020-style polling miss nationally, this race becomes hyper-competitive.

Mehmet Oz Campaign - Attack Ad Against Fetterman

The central takaway is that we can expect Oz to gain some ground on Fetterman as undecided Republicans break in his favor. However, Fetterman will most likely have a lead entering the election unless Oz is able to change the mind of some voters currently supporting Fetterman.

For more information, be sure to explore the full interactive Pennsylvania Senate race Forecast . If you like the Demographic polling average, we have released one for these races.

Senate:

1. Arizona

2. Florida

3. Georgia

4. Ohio

5. Pennsylvania

Governor

1. Florida

2. Georgia

3. New York

4. Pennsylvania

By Joseph Brusgard
Date: September 29th, 2022

Republicans have their eyes set on the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, hoping to return to relevancy in a state that has turned sharply against them in recent years. It wasn’t always this way in the Centennial State – which used to be one of the nation’s marquee swing states. 

Republicans have lost support with white college-educated voters across the country since 2014, and that has cost them dearly in Colorado – which has a higher percentage of these voters than any other state in the Union (43.4%). As a direct result, Joe Biden won by a 13.5% margin over Donald Trump, a victory that would have been inconceivable eight years ago.

The pivotal question in Colorado is whether their 2020 election is an outlier or the new normal for Republicans. Consultant Craig Hughes is firmly in the first camp. Hughes was Michael Bennet's Campaign Manager in 2010 when he successfully navigated Bennet's campaign to victory in an otherwise brutal election year for Democrats. He is currently advising his re-election campaign.

Hughes told us that "Donald Trump drove people away from the Republican Party. So, I think that the 2020 election was an anomaly and that a 13-point win is an absolute high water mark of where we can be here.”

That’s music to Republicans’ ears, considering they now control less power in the state legislature than at any time since World War 2.  There are a few reasons why Republicans are hopeful that their fortunes could improve in 2022, beyond just a potentially better national environment.

Unaffiliated voters make up 44% of Colorado's electorate, outnumbering Democrats and Republicans. These voters will have the final say in who will be the winner. Successful Colorado politicians thrive at appealing to these independent-minded voters. To that end, the GOP has nominated a candidate that may just fit the bill in Joe O’Dea.

O’Dea’s victory came as a great relief for Republicans in the state, who faced a serious risk of nominating one of the most extreme candidates in the country. State Representative Ron Hanks, could have been the proverbial iceberg to the Colorado GOP's titanic, as he had made his entire campaign about 2020 election conspiracies. However, thanks to unaffiliated voters, O’Dea won the nomination, and his candidacy has changed perceptions of the race.

O'Dea has taken a different tact than many other Republicans and eschewed any mention of the cultural wars - a must in a socially moderate state like Colorado. He supports fewer abortion restrictions than other candidates, supporting a legal right to an abortion up to 20 weeks. O’Dea has also been critical of Lindsey Graham’s abortion ban bill.

O'Dea is also one of the few Republicans calling for the party to outright move on from Trump. "I think that seeing a Biden-Trump rematch again in 2024 would rip the country apart," O'Dea said. "I think a lot of people are ready to move our country forward. So, I wouldn't support him running again." 

O'Dea has instead focused firmly on pocketbook issues like inflation and gas prices. With prices going up across the nation, O’Dea’s campaign approach is perhaps the best tack in a state like Colorado, and as a result, some national Republicans see this race in play.

However, Democrats have a proven winner on the ticket. That's Democratic incumbent Senator Michael Bennet, former Superintendent for Denver Public Schools who was appointed Senator to replace Ken Salazar in 2009. Bennet proved his mettle as a candidate a year later in the 2010 midterms, surviving a historic red wave that washed out many of his fellow Democratic Senators. He won again in 2016 by almost 6%. That's a particularly encouraging sign for Democrats, as Colorado has since shifted about 5% to the left.

As Senator, Bennet has been a low-key moderate promoting legislation supporting children and the environment. He sponsored the Child Tax Credit and secured Colorado drought protection funding from the Inflation Reduction Act, a top issue in Colorado as drought decreases water levels in the Colorado River. 

Political wisdom has long held that elections are decided by the economy, or as James Carville put so elegantly, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Just a scant few months ago, it was undoubtedly the number one issue. The Supreme Court’s recent decision in Dobbs V. Jackson has made this far more complicated, overnight erasing reproductive rights that had existed for nearly half a century. 

The latest polling, and special elections, provide a strong indication that it’s igniting many Americans to respond via the ballot box. Michael Bennet has taken note and has started to tout his pro-choice record, such as highlighting his support for legislation emphasizing. his support for legislation protecting women’s right to cross state lines for an abortion. 

While O’Dea is more moderate on abortion than most Republicans, he opposes Colorado’s recent abortion law, allowing third-trimester abortions, and said he supported Trump’s nominees to the Courts, including the Justices who overturned Roe. Like many other Democrats around the country, Bennet has launched ads hitting O’Dea on the issue.

As abortion has moved to the front and center, this battle will be fought and won in the suburbs. Keep a close eye on Jefferson County, a highly educated suburban Denver county, which has swung significantly to the left in the last four presidential cycles, mirroring national trends among college-educated suburban voters.

Former Bennet Campaign Manager Craig Hughes said, “Jefferson County used to be considered the ultimate swing county, that if you won Jefferson County, you won the state.”

“I think there’s very little doubt Democrats will carry Jefferson County. The question is can Republicans keep it much closer than they have in recent elections… if they are unable to keep it close there, they will have a very hard time making up those votes elsewhere.”

The polling suggests that Bennet is positioned to do well again, albeit not by Biden's 2020 margins. He's leading the RacetotheWH polling average by 8.2%. Georgina Bevan, a spokesperson for Michael Bennet’s campaign has expressed confidence in Bennet’s chances, arguing that “Michael understands the needs of our state and Coloradans will re-elect him this November because of his proven record of delivering for hard-working families.” 

Our Senate forecast, which was one of the most accurate in the nation in 2020, agrees that Senator Bennet is in a strong position. Today, the race lies on the knife’s edge between Lean D and Likely D, and we project that he will win by 7.6%, with O’Dea having a 15% chance for an upset. It will be updated every day from now until election day.

By Logan Phillips

Date: August 20th

Few states in the nation have shifted more towards Democrats in the last decade than Alaska, but their rejection of Sarah Palin in favor of Democrat Mary Peltola still stunned the nation. It was the exclamation point in a summer of surprising successes for Democrats in special elections, one that was made possible as much by the party's new-found strength post-Roe as by Alaska voters' misgivings about the former Governor. Now, Democrats will have to win once again in November for Peltola to secure a full two-year term - no easy task in a state that still has an R+15% lean.

We have designed a special ranked-choice election model just for Alaska, modeled after our successful NYC Mayor Forecast. There will be four candidates - Democratic Congresswomen Mary Peltola, former Governor Republican Sarah Palin, Republican Nick Begich, and Libertarian Chris Bye. Voters will rank the candidates in order of preference. Once the vote count is completed, the candidate placing fourth is automatically eliminated, and their votes are rerouted to the candidate that those voters ranked second on their ballot. If neither candidate has over 50% of the vote, the same process is repeated for the third-place candidate.

For the first round, we estimate the vote share of each candidate by using five factors - Polling (most important), vote share in the special election, Fundraising, Experience, and the frequency Alaskans are searching each candidate on google over the last 7 days.

By: Joseph Brusgard

Date: September 1st

The fight for the House of Representatives has heated up since the Court overturned Roe v. Wade last May, and now Republicans face a much more formidable challenge from the Democratic party than they anticipated. Democrats are feeling confident after a string of strong showings in special Congressional elections, topped off by blockbuster upsets in New York and Alaska.   

Republicans remain the favorites. They still have an innate advantage in the congressional map that would likely - but not certainly - lead to a victory if the national popular vote is even. We also think there's a real chance they regain ground in the national generic ballot, as typically happens for the party out of power. Nonetheless, this election has become far more competitive than many expected, and Democrat's chances of holding onto the House for another term are now up to 36% in the RacetotheWH House Forecast. 

From Nevada to Kansas, here are four races where the dynamic has changed as a direct result of the Court’s decision.

#1. Don Bacon, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District

Click here for Full Predictions for the Nebraska House Races

Our first major indication that the political atmosphere had changed decisively was in Nebraska, home of the first special election since the Court's historic decision. Republican Representative Jeff Fortenberry had to resign after being indicted for lying to investigators, leading to a late June election to find his replacement.

Instead of winning an easy victory, Republican Mike Flood got mired in a shockingly close race, barely beating Democrat Patty Pansing Brooks by just 6 points. Turnout in blue Lancaster County was high, and in red Sarpy County, the race was very tight.

Patty Brooks has a 8-10% chance of winning in November, but the neighboring district is more competitive. That's Congressman Don Bacon's district, the NE-2, and it gave Joe Biden a single electoral vote from the state. On the day the decision was issued, Bacon said “it was a good day” and he has voted against bills prohibiting state officials from getting involved with people seeking abortion out of state while his opponent, State Senator, Tony Vargas has been more vocally opposed to the Dobbs decision. 

Bacon has established a moderate voting record, voting for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and even the Respect for Marriage Act, but he has not extended that to abortion. If the past few months are an indication of anything, that won’t play well in his increasingly left-leaning district.

In the aftermath of the Dobbs, the DCCC added Bacon to their vulnerable member's list. Today, our House Forecast shows that Bacon is still favored to win, but the race is in play.

#2 Sharice Davids, Kansas’s 3rd Congressional District

Click here for Full Predictions for the Kansas House Races

America just had its first pure test of abortion as a standalone political issue, held in ruby-red Kansas, where pro-life candidates have excelled. It's a state that has favored Republicans over Democrats by 20% relative to the popular vote over the last few election cycles. 

The state held a referendum on the same day as the primary that would give the State Legislature the power to pass an abortion ban. The only poll showed it would pass by 4%. Instead, voters delivered a stunning rejection of the proposal, defeating the measure 59% to 41%. 

Many Republicans voted against the measure, but that wasn’t the only notable event. Democrats turned out at a very high rate more reminiscent of a high turnout general election than a primary. If this is a sign of their energy in November, it could make all the difference in the closest races.

The greatest beneficiary could be Sharice Davids, a woman of more than a few first. When she was elected to Congress in 2018, Davids became the first Democrat in Kansas in over a decade, and the first Native American woman elected to Congress, tied with Congresswoman Deb Halland who won the same year.  

She's vulnerable in 2022. She faces Republican Party Chair Amanda Adkins, in a rematch of the 2020 election. Last time, Davids beat Adkins by 10%, but now their district has shifted to the right thanks to gerrymandering by Kansas Republicans. This is currently a razor-close race that we think Davids will win by just 1.9%, so even a slight uptick in turnout similar to the referendum would be a huge boon to her chances. 

Davids has already attacked Adkins over her stance on the issue and support for the amendment. Two possibilities emerge: 

1. The electorate is still fired up, as evidenced by a huge surge in voter registration, particularly for women.

2. If the referendum was on the ballot in November, Davids would have done better, but the Democratic turnout advantage will not extend to November.

If it's the former, that's also good news for Governor Laura Kelly (D). Kelly gives the GOP their best chance to flip a governorship, although she still has a shot at winning according to our Governor Forecast. 

#3 Michigan’s 7th Congressional District

Click here for Full Predictions for the Michigan House Races

Michigan is ground zero for abortion rights in 2022. Governor Gretchen Whitmer has made protecting reproductive rights a top priority and filed a lawsuit back in April to assure access to abortion to prevent or at least slow down a 1931 law banning abortion from going back into effect after Roe. Attorney General Dana Nessel has refused any enforcement of the states’ 1931 abortion ban, and to cap it all off, in November, there will be a ballot initiative to enshrine abortion access in the state constitution. If the Kansas referendum was any indication, that's going to boost turnout for Democrats.

That's good news for Elissa Slotkin, who represents Michigan’s 7th district in the suburbs surrounding Detroit. Slotkin has established herself as a rising star in the Democratic party. Before running for Congress, she was the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs in the Obama administration. She won an impressive victory in 2018 in a district Trump won by 7%, taking it by 4%. She won in 2020 even as Trump narrowly won the district again.

While the district has shifted slightly to the left in the new congressional maps, it’s still a district that favors Republicans relative to the national vote, so Slotkin likely needs to run another strong campaign to hold on to her seat.

Slotkin’s opponent is state Senator Tom Barrett, who has described himself as “100% pro-life”.  He introduced a resolution into the state Senate that would require the state to enforce all anti-abortion laws on the books in the state. Slotkin will raise no objections to Barrett putting the issue of abortion front and center in their race. Now, she can easily tie him to an unpopular law passed nearly a century ago.

She’s outraised Barret nearly 5-1. That fundraising edge takes this race from a Toss-up to a Tilt D race. For now, Slotkin has focused her ads not on abortion, but on the same playbook that she rode to victory in 2018 and 2020: Emphasizing her national security work in both the Bush and Obama administrations and her efforts to lower the cost of prescription drugs. 

#4 Nevada’s 3rd District- Susie Lee

Click here for Full Predictions for the Nevada House Races

Nevada is one of the most pro-choice states in the union - far more than most swing states. Abortion is already enshrined into state law, so the only way to undo it would be a new national law or a state constitutional amendment. Pro-life activists and Republicans that have tried to get it on the ballot in the past have been unsuccessful- perhaps a relief to Republicans running in 2022.

Three of the four Nevada elections are hyper-competitive thanks to a Democratic gamble to make the 3rd and 4th districts easier to hold on to by adding more Democratic-friendly turf from the 1st district. It's entirely possible that Democrats either win 3 of the 4 races again, or Republicans win a clean sweep (for more, read our interactive forecast for the Nevada House races, which is easily one of the most interesting states to watch this cycle).

In the 3rd congressional district, Susie Lee launched a $500,000 ad buy to highlight the danger her opponent April Becker presents to abortion rights. Admittedly, some of Lee’s claims run contrary to what Becker has actually said. Becker opposes a national ban and wants exceptions for rape and the life of the mother, but she still approves of the Court's decision, and would not support legislation codifying Roe v. Wade. 

Pat Ryan beat Marcus Molinaro in the NY-19th on the issue of abortion, even though Molinaro was much more moderate on the issue. In the days since, we've seen several Republicans start to air ads clarifying they support exceptions for abortion, suggesting the potency of such attacks is significant. We'll see if Becker starts doing the same. (which is also now very competitive). All three Democrats may survive – or Nevada could send an all-Republican House delegation for the first time since 1997 when the state only had 2 districts. Our House Forecast shows that Lee is the most endangered Democrat, on track to win by just 2.5%. She leads by just 0.6% in the House polling average, although she will benefit from a big edge in fundraising.

We just wrote an article explaining why Democrats' chances of winning the House have surged more than 9% in the last two weeks. You can also follow our interactive and easy-to-read Senate predictions, which were one of the most accurate in the nation in 2020. 

Race to the WH Articles

By: Logan Phillips

Date: August 15th

Democrats tried to lock down a decisive advantage in the New York Congressional Maps, but the New York State Court of Appeals struck it down for violating the state’s constitutional ban on gerrymandering. The new map makes the state one of the most important political battlegrounds of the 2022 Congressional Elections, with more house races in play than any state short of California. We’re launching our new interactive predictions for the NY House Race, which are posted both in this article (on the bottom of the page for mobile), and in it’s permanent home here.

The parties will fiercely compete for the three open seats in Long Island, all of which could conceivably be won by either party (the NY 1st, 3rd, and 4th). If Democrats overperform in 2022, they could be competitive in the one Long Island district with an incumbent (NY-2nd), where Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R) is running for re-election. New York City features mostly safe seats, excluding the NY-11th, where former Congressman Max Rose is the underdog as he challenges Rep. Nicole Malliotakis for his former seat in State Island.

Just north of NYC, New York Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney opted to leave his old seat for the neighboring NY-17th, which is a bit more friendly for Democrats. He’ll be the clear favorite but could face trouble if Republicans successfully win the House in a red wave. Maloney’s old district, the NY-18th, is now one of the nation’s most competitive races this cycle. In the Southern Tier, polling shows that former GOP Governor nominee Marcus Molinaro is lightly favored to beat lawyer Josh Riley in a special election on August 23rd in a district that favors Republicans by 1% relative to the popular vote. Both will be running a second time in November.

In Central New York and the Mohawk Valley, Democrats chances of flipping the NY-22nd rose after moderate Republican Rep. John Katko decided to retire. President Biden won the district by 7.4%. Donald Trump won the NY-23rd in Western NY by 17% in 2020, but it could be in play if Republicans nominate Carl Paldino. Paladino has a long history of extreme views, including describing Adolf Hitler as “the kind of leader we need today. We need somebody inspirational. We need somebody that is a doer.” Paladino underperformed Congressional Republican by 17% when lost the Governorship to Andrew Cuomo in 2010, and he’d likely do similarly in his House bid, although it’s Republican enough that he would still be favored. If they instead nominate GOP Chair Nick Langworthy, it’s a Safe R seat.

Finally, there are a series of high-profile Democratic primaries on Tuesday, August 23rd. We have successfully called over 95% of primaries correctly for the Senate and Governorship, and for the first time, we are taking a crack at three primaries in New York. Keep in mind this is very experimental, as this is essentially using our Senate primary forecast without optimizing it for House Races, nor testing its accuracy on past cycles.

The New York 10th District is stacked with rising stars in the NY Democratic Primary. We think outsider and Attorney Dan Goldman is the favorite (as of 8/15), and he’s been further boosted by the New York Times endorsement. However, at the same time, an upset is more likely than not because the race is so close. We think he has a 35% chance of winning. Yuh-Line Niou has a 20% chance, and Caroline Rivera has a 19% chance. Congressman Mondaire Jones has a 14% chance of being the nominee. Former Congresswoman Holtzman has a 10% chance, followed by Jo Anne Simon with a 2% chance.

The New York 12th features a highly competitive race between two Representatives, Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney that have been forced to compete against each other thanks to redistricting. While they are the clear frontrunners, another candidate to watch is Ashmi Seth, a first-generation American who worked for the Federal Reserve. She’s taken a novel approach to developing her campaign’s platform. It's the product of the volunteer work of over a thousand of her potential constituents, with individuals working on the issues they have expertise/personal experience. While she faces challenging odds on election day, a strong performance could bode well for Seth's future in the district, as she is in her late 20s, while Nadler and Maloney are both in their mid-70s. We think Nadler has broken past Maloney to become the favorite, with a 66% chance of winning, compared to Maloney’s 32% chance. Sheth and Attorney Suraj Patel have a roughly 1% chance each. We project Nadler will get 45% of the vote to Maloney’s 35%.

Finally, Sean Patrick Maloney was able to pressure Congressman Mondaire Jones to leave his district, the NY-17th to escape a more competitive race in his NY-18th. He’s the heavy favorite to beat progressive State Senator Alessandria Biaggi, with a 92% chance of victory. We expect him to win 70% of the vote to Biaggi’s 30%.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right and outperformed almost all its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.

Race to the WH Articles

By: Logan Phillips

Date: July 5th

Today, we just launched a mega-update for RacetotheWH, with more new features and interactive predictions than we’ve ever launched on one day before. The most exciting update is for the House, where were are introducing predictions for every house race in the Seven States. With 435 House Seats nationwide, it can be overwhelming to get a clear picture of which races are actually in play, let alone to understand the political landscape of each state.

Our goal at RacetotheWH has always been to make politics more accessible, both for hard-core politicos and newcomers looking to get engaged for the first time. We think these House Predictions will go a long way to helping achieve this goal. Each page includes information not just for each race, but the overall picture of each state. It highlights the most competitive races, shows the number of seats the parties are projected to win statewide, and how that differs from 2020. It also highlights the counties in each district on an interactive state map.

To start, we launched interactive predictions for California, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. Keep an eye out for more to come soon, especially as primaries wrap up in other key states around the nation like Arizona, Florida, and Michigan.

Senate Races

We’ve been running interactive Senate Predictions for most of the top swing states in the country, and we significantly expanded our coverage to add an additional ten races. At the top of the list is Washington state, where Democratic Senator Patty Murray is running for re-election. Polling has been surprisingly close in Washington, suggesting Republicans could have a shot if they can mounter a proper red wave. 

We’ve also launched a forecast for the Democratic-controlled seats of California,  Connecticut, Illinois, New York, and Oregon. We’re now predicting the races for Republican-controlled Alabama, Iowa, Kentucky, and South Carolina. 

Governor Races

We’ve got a big slate of competitive Governor elections up in 2022, and now our coverage includes five important races. Despite its blue tilt, Oregon has the potential to be one of the most competitive races in 2022, and polling suggests Republicans have a real shot of winning, in part thanks to independent Betsy Johnson polling significant support. We also launched a forecast for Connecticut, where Governor Ned Lamont narrowly won his re-election in 2022. However, he’s become one of the most popular Democratic governors during the pandemic, so Republican Bob Stefanowski will have his work cut out for him.

We switched our New Mexico Governor forecast from the primary to the general election. Mark Ronchetti finished a pretty shockingly close 6% back in the New Mexico 2020 Senate race, and Republicans hope he can take advantage of a more favorable national environment and a likely increase in funding from donors to win an upset.

Finally, we added the California and Illinois Governor Forecast. Democrats are the clear favorites there, but the races will still be interesting to watch, as rumors are starting to rise about Governor Newsom and Pritzker potentially making a move on the national stage for the 2024 or 2028 presidential elections.

Next Up

This is just the beginning of new features. We will be releasing General Election Governor Forecast for Maryland and Massachusetts soon, which are the two best opportunities for Democrats to pick up a governor’s seat. For now, following the fiercely competitive Maryland Governor Primary forecast.

We will also soon be launching a simulation for the House Forecast, that lets you explore what the election could be like in November once ad day. Speaking of simulations, we recently also launched one of our best features for the MLB playoffs. It’s interactive and animated forecasts, that simulate every round of the playoffs up to the World Series, updated daily, powered by our MLB Forecast.

If the MLB Forecast gets enough support and views, we will be creating an NBA and NFL forecast in the months to come as well.

Full List of Live Interactive Features at RacetotheWH

Race to the WH Articles

By: Logan Phillips

Date: May 13th

An influential outsider has weighted into the Pennsylvania Republican Governor Primary at the last minute to crown his chosen candidate with the nomination. His name is not Donald Trump, but Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the soon-to-be nominee of the Democratic party for Governor.

Senator Claire McCaskill’s “attack ad” against Todd Aiken helped him win the nomination in 2012.

Shapiro is taking a page out of Claire McCaskill’s 2012 successful Senate campaign. She bet that Todd Aiken, a far-right politician with a penchant for saying things that offended people, would be the easiest to beat. She lent Aiken’s campaign a hand, and spent far more on television advertisements than the poorly funded Aiken could afford on their own, “warning” Republican Missouri voters that Todd Aiken was much too conservative for the state. Aiken won the primary, and unsurprisingly made extreme comments in the general election that helped seal his defeat, enabling McCaskill to survive another term in a state rapidly turning into a Republican stronghold.

In the Pennsylvania 2022 Governor Race, Josh Shapiro has settled on Doug Mastriano as the easiest candidate to beat, and it’s not hard to see why. Mastriano spent months trying to overturn the last election, and replace Pennsylvania voter’s decision to cast their 20 electoral votes for Joe Biden with his own choice of Donald Trump.

He attended the rally on January 6th and spent months trying to overturn the last election, including a bombastic speech next to Rudy Giuliani just a few weeks after his infamous speech at Four Seasons Total Landscaping. Mastriano also supports bans on abortion the moment after contraception with no exceptions for rape or the life of the mother, which is a position that one poll by Franklin and Marshall found that only 16% of Pennsylvania voters hold. 

Josh Shapiro “warns” Republicans that vote for Mastriano would be like a vote for Donald Trump.

Shapiro has enough money to try and replicate McCaskill’s strategy, after shattering state records for early fundraising, powered by an enormous treasure trove of small-dollar donors. He has launched an expensive ad buy in the closing moments of the primary that highlights the specific positions and record of Mastriano that would both impress Republican primary voters while turning off swing voters. 

However, it could almost be mistaken for a Mastriano ad – the kind that candidates do with digital ads that target just their supporters, and not the general electorate. It highlights his pro-life ambition, and his efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. It even closes by saying “If Mastriano wins, it’s a win for what Donald Trump stands for.”

If there were any doubts about Shapiro’s intentions, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party has removed them by sending mailers with similar messages specifically to GOP primary voters. No campaign would waste ads only targeting the voters they are least likely to win without a special reason. 

Mastriano, for his part, is more than happy for the boost from Shapiro. He told Lancaster Online that “I’m going to have to send him a thank you card”. It’s a real asset, especially considering that the Republican candidates have struggled to raise anywhere near the amount of money. Shapiro has raised $17.9 million, while Mastriano has only $1.4 million.

All indications shows that the strategy is working. Mastriano has zoomed ahead to first place in the primary in the last week, rising from 19% to almost 25% in our polling average. Our PA Primary Forecast now gives Mastriano an over 50% chance of becoming the nominee. It’s still competitive though. The easiest voters to lose in a primary are the ones that just embraced your campaign last week, and he will be targeted aggressively by the rest of the field in the closing week of the campaign.

Shapiro’s campaign must be confident that they would enter the campaign cycle with the upper hand against Mastriano to spend resources to promote him. A new GOP internal poll, now included in our PA forecast, showed Shapiro beating Mastriano by 9%. Chances are high Shapiro is seeing similar results in his internal polls. He’s also likely found that he can expand that advantage considerably after highlighting some of the more extreme pieces of Mastriano's record (the same GOP internal poll found his lead expanded to 12%, and that he was able to win over 20% of GOP voters).

Of course, Shapiro’s bet could end up being wrong. Our Pennsylvania Governor forecast shows that Mastriano would be the weakest candidate against Shapiro, but he still has almost a 20% chance of winning. If this Governor's primary ends up being close, and Mastriano wins the Governorship, Shapiro could end up helping elect Democrats’ worse nightmare into the Governor’s office. If Mastriano’s actions related to voting in 2020 are any indicator, he would likely do everything in his power to prevent the Democrat candidate from winning in 2024, even if it’s well beyond the bounds of the law or democratic norms

Race to the WH Articles

By: Joseph Brusgard

Date: May 9th

At long last, it’s finally primary season. Here are four House race primaries that will tell us more about the national environment.

#1 Michigan’s 11th Congressional District

Every decade, after the Congressional lines are redrawn, members are forced to play a giant game of musical chairs, moving from one district to the next to find a seat to run in. That’s doubly true in states that lost a representative because of the new census. In 2022, some Democrats will crave the security of an easier district and have made the strategic choice to run against another member in a contentious primary rather than compete in a long-shot general election. 

Michigan had an independent redistricting commission, and the maps have been praised as fair and representative considering how close the state is. However, after Michigan lost a seat, the new districts forced Members of Congress into new territory. In Michigan’s new 11th District, Democratic Representatives Haley Stevens and Andy Levin are running against each other. 

Levin, first elected in 2018 is the scion of a dynasty that some have referred to as “the Jewish Kennedys”. Levin’s father Sander held his seat before him, and his uncle, the late Carl Levin, was Michigan’s senator for six terms. 

Andy Levin used to represent the 9th district, but most of the territory in it was moved to the 10th district, which is significantly more competitive. He decided to run in the 11th district, where his hometown of Bloomfield is located. Politically, Levin is a bold progressive, being a co-sponsor of the Green New Deal and having the support of many key progressive leaders in congress.

Congresswoman Haley Stevens was also first elected in 2018 and used to work in the Obama administration. She successfully flipped a Republican-leaning district and has the backing of moderate representatives too numerous to count among her endorsers.

This race is going to go down to the wire, and neither side has a clear advantage. Stevens has more of her old district than Levin does  but Stevens only moved to a town in the new district very recently. Levin, while having more local ties, has infuriated many in the Democratic Party with his decision to run here instead of the 10th district, underscoring how members would rather face a divisive primary than run in a Trump leaning district this cycle.

Finally, polling has been a dead heat, with two out of three polls resulting in ties, and only one poll from January having a decent Stevens lead. Stevens leads in fundraising with $2 million, but Levin is not far behind either, per the FEC.

#2 West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District

Once every six years, West Virginia finds itself back in the spotlight when Joe Manchin runs for re-election. The rest of the time, it tends to get overlooked, because Republicans have such an overwhelming advantage in the state.

However, in this election cycle, it features one of the most high profile member vs. member primaries in the nation. Congressmen Alex Mooney and David McKinley are running in the 2nd district, after Mooney’s 3rd district got axed in reapportionment. This race is looking to become a proxy battle between Donald Trump and Joe Manchin.

David McKinley, the Joe Manchin endorsed candidate who voted for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, is branded as the more moderate candidate against Alex Mooney, who openly touts his support from prominent conservative groups, including Donald Trump himself. In West Virginia, the second most Republican state in 2020, that should be the end of the story for McKinley. But Mooney is more vulnerable than his endorsements let on.

Mooney’s career in West Virginia began in 2014. However, he was involved in politics since 1990 – as a State Senator in Maryland. After 21 years in office, he made a failed bid for Congress in 2012. Mooney then moved to West Virginia, and ran for a seat in 2014. Voters did not take kindly to his last second move, and he barely won the seat, finishing only a few points ahead of the Democrat despite a historic red wave.

On the other side of the coin, after narrowly being elected in 2010, David McKinley has never won with anything less than 62% of the vote. However, we should note that Mooney has won his last few elections by decisive margins.

Finally, there has been polling for the race that we track here. McKinley has led in the few polls we have that aren’t sponsored by any campaigns, but Mooney leads the overall polling average as a result of his internal polling (that’s even after correcting for bias).

Mooney has been seen as a possible contender to take on Joe Manchin in 2024, adding a looming national implication for a district that will be safely in Republican hands. Ironically, the conciliation prize for the loser could end up being the Republican nominee for the Senate.

#3 Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District

Intra-party primary fights between progressives and more moderate Democrats are becoming more common in recent years, and Pennsylvania is no exception. Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto was defeated by Ed Gainey, who outflanked him from his left in a sign of a clear shift in city politics. Now, the fight to replace retiring congressman Mike Doyle is a new ideological proxy battle.

Campaign Ad by Progressive Summer Lee

The field has three candidates. Two are staunch progressives - State Rep. Summer Lee is backed by the Justice Democrat backed candidate, and law professor Jerry Dickinson, a law professor who challenged Doyle in 2020. Steve Irwin is more moderate. He’s an attorney with some government experience (and has no experience with Australian wildlife, despite sharing a name with the celebrity zookeeper).

This schism is clear, and the it shows in the candidates endorsements. Summer Lee has the endorsement of Ed Gainey, Ayanna Presley and several unions.  Irwin, on the other hand, has much more establishment backing, having the endorsements Bill Peduto, the Democratic Majority for Israel, Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald and Congressman Mike Doyle.

Normally in these races, progressive candidates have seen higher fundraising totals compared to more moderate candidates, but not in this race. In Quarter 4 of 2021 totals, Irwin lead the field with $338,000 raised, followed by Lee at $275,000 and Dickinson at $120,000. Only one poll has been released, showing Lee in the lead, though this was conducted by Emily’s List, who has endorsed Lee. Unless another poll comes out, all we can say is…Crikey!

#4 New York’s 23rd Congressional District

Just in time for this article to be published, the New York State Court of Appeals struck down the maps in New York. Now, we don’t know what the new maps will be. However, before the decision, Claudia Tenney decided to run in a district where she didn’t live – a helpful reminder to all of us those congressional candidates don’t necessarily have to live in their district. Her new district was going to become competitive, so she opted for a safer red seat. Fortunately for Tenney, she didn’t waste money buying a house, because we now don’t know what the map in New York will look like.

Tenney’s congressional career has been quite interesting. First elected in a Utica based district in 2016, she lost in 2018 against Anthony Brindisi. Two years later, they had a rematch that was the second closest race in the entire country, not being resolved until February, a month after the new congress was sworn in and two weeks after Joe Biden was inaugurated. She ultimately prevailed by a handful of votes.

In 2022, she moved to the much redder 23rd district after he district became much bluer, It opened up after Tom Reed, the incumbent, opted to retire. Reed had a self-imposed term limit of 12 years, and would have struggled to back out of it and win, even if he wanted to, after a sexual misconduct allegation emerged.

Tenney is likely to win her primary regardless of the new map. She won the backing of several county parties, Elise Stefanik and Donald Trump. Her biggest competitor here is Joe Sempolinski, the chair of the Steuben County Republican Committee. Sempolinski is notably endorsed by Tom Reed, an asset, but not as useful as it would have been twenty years ago as our politics has become nationalized. In terms of fundraising, Tenney is leading, having raised over $1 million to Sempolinski’s almost $150 thousand per the FEC. This race raises the big question whether the old adage “all politics is local” still holds up, as national figures have one candidate, but the local representative has endorsed someone else.

Race to the WH Articles

By: Logan Phillips
Date: Updated June 24th, Original Version Published May 3rd

In early 2016, Mitch McConnel broke historic precedent and prevented President Obama from appointing a Justice nine months out from the election. Now, that will go down as a defining moment in American history, as the Supreme Court just repealed Roe V. Wade.

This will impact states across the nation, far beyond the boundaries of the states where Republicans control all levers of government today, like Oklahoma and Texas. Over the past few decades, Republicans have successfully passed bans on abortion that would automatically go into effect if Roe v. Wade was overturned. Total or near-total bans will go into effect even in many of the most tightly contested swing states in the nation, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Each of those states have governor elections this November.

The implications of ending Roe v. Wade go beyond politics and elections. Nonetheless, the political consequences of this change will be monumental in their own right and could reshape the political battleground for the 2022 election cycle.

Overturning Roe v. Wade has been the white whale for the Republican party for over a generation, and it has powered them to victory time and time again. Now that they are on the precipice of reaching their goal, there could be a steep political price to pay.

Nationally, I anticipate that this will now be a very high turnout election. This was always going to be true among Republican-leaning voters, who are fired up with a Democrat in the White House. However, now this likely applies to Democratic voters as well, especially in the swing states that suddenly have abortion bans that most people had no idea were going to surface if Roe was overturned. If Republicans have a strong year, they could still end up losing Governor or even Senate races in key swing states like Arizona, Michigan, or Wisconsin if enough pro-choice voters are motivated to turn out.

Democrats will be better protected from suffering from leakage with several key groups, including suburban voters and college-educated voters. Most consequentially, it could reverse their losses with young voters, especially young female voters that are pro-choice. President Biden’s support with young voters has been underwhelming, and one of the most alarming red flags for the midterms. Even a modest drop-off in youth turnout would prove very costly for Democrats.

We’ve already seen a big gap emerge between Biden and the rest of the Democratic party in polling since the Court’s opinion leaked in May. While voters have soured considerably on Biden, whose approval rating is now hovering around 40%, the generic ballot has gotten more competitive. On the state level, Democrats are polling about 8% higher than Biden’s approval rating in 16 Governor and Senate polls in competitive races - a pattern that has been consistent in polling released by both independent pollsters, Democratic pollsters, and Republican pollsters.

As a direct result, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate in our Election Forecast have risen over 50%, especially as they took the lead in polling in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Race to the WH Articles

By: Logan Phillips, Editor In Chief
Date: May 2nd

At long last, it’s finally election day in Ohio, and we will now have the first major primary showdown of the 2022 election cycle. Republicans are locked in a tight competition for the right to face the almost-certain Democratic Nominee, Tim Ryan, in a contest for the open Ohio Senate Seat. 

Less than a month ago, JD Vance’s campaign was failing to pick up support after months of sustained fire from his opponents, particularly Josh Mandel and Mike Gibbons. They had accused him of being anti-Trump, because he voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, Donald Trump’s recent endorsement changed the game for Vance.

While Trump's endorsement has not been as meaningful as expected in many other marquee primaries, it has changed the dynamics of the Ohio race. It gives Vance cover and lowered the potency of the attack ads claiming he wasn’t supportive enough of Trump.

Now, Vance enters election day as the frontrunner, leading the field in polling. However, Vance has not been able to separate himself entirely from the field, and nipping at his heels is Josh Mandel, the former Treasurer for Ohio. Mandel's close enough that no one should be surprised if he finished ahead.

Matt Dolan has blanketed the airwaves with ads in the closing weeks of the election, and it has fueled his surprising late surge. This is one of the ads he’s running in Ohio.

The wildcard factor is Matt Dolan, who has had a truly remarkable turnabout at the 11th hour. Though he had been firmly in fifth place for almost the entirety of the campaign. Dolan outraised the competition and sat on an enormous war chest of campaign funds that he has let loose in the last few weeks. Dolan has the benefit of being one of the only candidates to have escaped being tarnished by negative attack ads, because his opponents didn’t taken his candidacy seriously. 

In retrospect, it’s possible that could be a deadly mistake, because Dolan has skyrocketed into third place, surging at an even faster pace than JD Vance. Now, he has a viable shot at winning in an upset. His rise is reminiscent of Andrew Gillum’s in the Florida Democratic Governor Primary in 2018, or Rick Santorum’s in the Iowa 2012 Caucus. Both surged so close to the finish that they probably would have lost the election if it was held even a few days earlier.

It would be a statement victory, as JD Vance represents the more traditional style of Ohio Republicans – conservative, but moderate in language and respectful in tone. That’s quite the contrast to Mandel and Vance, who have gone to great lengths to try to win Trump’s endorsement and embraced his style and tone on the campaign trail.

Banker Mike Gibbons has a very outside chance of pulling off an upset as well. He was recently leading in the polls, but he was unable to stay on top after he became caught in the crossfire of attack ads from Mandel, Vance, and associated groups.

Primary Forecast

For the very first time, we are now running a primary forecast for the major primary elections of the 2022 cycle, starting with Ohio! The day before election day, we’ve got JD Vance as the favorite with a 50% chance of winning. Josh Mandel and Matt Dolan are both serious contenders with a 20-25% chance of an upset.

You can follow our primary forecast for Ohio here. Make sure to check in throughout the day tomorrow as well, as it will be updated until the polls close. One of the factors we use in the forecast is google trends, which shows which candidates are being looked up the most in Ohio before they vote. It’s a valuable part of the forecast, and we’ll update it every few hours.

Keep in mind that this is just the first primary, and we are also running a forecast for the PA Senate race, which will happen in a few weeks. We're also running forecasts for the Georgia Governor Race and the Arizona Senate Race, and the Wisconsin Senate Primary forecast will be added by the end of the week. Our Senate Primary Forecast model is more experimental than our general election forecast, but it did successfully call over 94% of the primaries that we tested it on.

Here’s how the Primary Forecast works:

First, and most importantly, we use polling for the primary. We developed a polling average, which weighs polls based on the pollster’s historic accuracy, recency, and sample size. Far more than in general elections, we give extra weight to polling from the last few days, as voters often change their minds in the closing days of a primary election. We also correct for bias for internal polls, which are worth half as much on average.

Next, we factor in a candidate’s momentum in the polls. Any gains or losses they’ve had in the last 7 days are amplified by 15%, as polling is a snapshot of what voters felt a few days ago. Often, polls fail to fully capture a late surging candidate, like Rick Santorum in the 2012 Iowa Caucus, and we’ve found that a modest momentum boost slightly improves the accuracy of the model. 

Earlier on in the primary, polling can be capped at only 60%. However, today, it makes up 84% of our projection for every candidate.  

The rest of the forecast is divided into four areas:

1. Fundraising

2. Experience

3. Google Trends

4. Endorsements

Fundraising

Money can’t buy you an election, but it sure can help. It’s far more impactful in primaries than in general elections. In a general election in a deeply red district, for example, voters who overwhelming lean towards Republicans are likely to support the Republican, even if they never hear from them and the Democrat is airing millions of dollars’ worth of ads.

However, in primaries with no incumbent, voters aren’t divided by party lines. They’ve often never even heard of many of the major candidates, and they won’t vote for someone if they never hear their campaign pitch. Strong fundraising, therefore, has considerable predictive value, because it enables a candidate to get their message out, counter-attack ads, and mobilize their supporters to the polls. 

In our forecast, we factor candidates' performance in fundraising relative to the rest of the field. We track their success in raising

1. Total Donations
2. Individual Donations (fundraising excluding self-funding and PACs
3. The Money They Have Left to Spend 

Fundraising

Money can’t buy you an election, but it sure can help. It’s far more impactful in primaries than in general elections. In a general election in a deeply red district, for example, voters who overwhelming lean towards Republicans are likely to support the Republican, even if they never hear from them and the Democrat is airing millions of dollars’ worth of ads.

However, in primaries with no incumbent, voters aren’t divided by party lines. They’ve often never even heard of many of the major candidates, and they won’t vote for someone if they never hear their campaign pitch. Strong fundraising, therefore, has considerable predictive value, because it enables a candidate to get their message out, counter-attack ads, and mobilize their supporters to the polls. 

In our forecast, we factor candidates' performance in fundraising relative to the rest of the field. We track their success in raising

 1. Total Donations

 2. Individual Donations (fundraising excluding self-funding and PACs)

 3. The Money They Have Left to Spend 

Google Trends

The third factor is Google Trends. This is more heavily weighted in the last few days of the campaign. Essentially, we look at how many voters in Ohio will be looking up each of the candidates. Early on in the campaign, when a candidate is getting searched at a higher than expected rate, it can sometimes be the first sign of an incoming polling surge. 

In the last moments of the campaign, it is a sign that voters are seriously thinking about voting for them, and want to learn more information before they make their decision. On election day, Google Trends is 4.2% of the projection.

Endorsements

Endorsements measure how much support the candidates have from influential political figures and groups in the state. We give more credit to endorsements from local politicians – 50 points for a Senator in the state, and 8 points from a Senator from anywhere else. Former President Trump’s endorsement is the most influential and is worth 150 points.

Endorsements are much more influential earlier in the primary, but they become worth just 2% by election day. By then, their impact should already be represented in the polling. We temporarily raised its influence by 300% in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s endorsement of JD Vance in anticipation of a polling surge, but now its shrunk back to its normal weight.

Simulation

We use those five factors (polling, fundraising, experience, google trends, and endorsements) to make an overall projection for each candidate. We also determine how much uncertainty there is in the race, or how far we think the projections could be off. This is affected by how far away we are from election day and how much the race has changed in the last few days. There’s more uncertainty for candidates projected to earn higher levels of support

In Ohio, the uncertainty is particularly high for JD Vance and Matt Dolan, because their polling has surged so much in the closing week. We think there is a higher-than-normal chance that they both overperform and underperform their projections by wider margins than the rest of the field. 

We use that data to simulate the election 10,000 times for every update using something called a normal distribution. Our forecast tracks how often each candidate wins, and that becomes their projected chance to win on election day.

We now have an internal primary forecast for every major Senate race, and we'll be releasing interactive primary pages for the most important races over the next few weeks as we get deeper into the primary election season.

For our full projections for Ohio, click here. Be sure to also explore our projections for the general election in the Senate.

Race to the WH Articles

Opinion Piece - by Guest Writer Jonas Goldman
Graduate of Columbia’s MPA in Environmental Science and Policy and former Research Analyst at the Environmental Economics think tank Smart Prosperity Institute
Date: April 6th

Americans are being asked to pay more at the pump but not everyone is paying their fair share. As working Americans have been forced to adjust their budgets due to increased gas prices, US fossil fuel companies and their stockholders have raked in significant profits.  In the fourth quarter of 2021, the five largest fossil fuel companies earned $20.4 billion in pre-tax profits.  If these profit levels remain consistent, they are set to make $81.4 billion this year, all while the average American can’t afford to pick their kids up from school.

Increased gas prices have resulted from several factors, including rising energy demand driven by the economic recovery from the pandemic, market volatility, and most recently, the ripple effects from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Combine this with the transitory inflation from aggressive fiscal stimulus programs, supply chain disruptions, and the monetary policy the Fed pursued to avoid a financial meltdown akin to 2008, and it straight up sucks for the average American driver.

Greater costs for necessities inherently hurt the pocketbooks of American’s that lack the income or savings to accommodate such economic swings. Roughly 45% of Americans, including many of your own friends and neighbors, would struggle to cover an unexpected emergency expense of $400 dollars.  Inflation is toxic – While its effects are felt across the economy, it disproportionally hurts the most vulnerable groups.

Fortunately for Americans, there is a way to relieve inflationary pain and reduce corporate greed, and that is through a windfall tax on fossil fuel profits. Based on fossil fuel company profits in Q4 2021, a new corporate tax rate on fossil fuel profits of 50% on the largest five US fossil fuel companies could generate roughly $40.7 billion of revenue. 

If US gas consumption this year is similar to 2019, then this $40.7 billion, if redirected back to households and businesses (say via monthly checks), could save consumers on average 27 cents per gallon this year.  Legislation in this exact vein is being proposed by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA 17). Congressional Democrats and the Biden administration should do everything possible to enact this legislation.

Windfall taxes are not a new concept.  Biden need only look to his hero FDR, to find an example of the implementation of windfall taxes (that were really just a more progressive corporate income tax regime) for managing profiteering during wartime.  Greater corporate income taxes on the largest US fossil fuel companies, can be used to cushion gas prices and subsidize middle- and working-class voters.

A hiked tax rate on fossil fuel company profits is a short-term solution. Windfall taxes don’t address the supply and demand-based causes of spiking gas prices, a recovering energy-hungry global economy colliding with the war-induced supply shocks of fossil fuels.  It’s an abundance of dollars chasing too few goods.

What a windfall tax does is bide time while alternative supplies are brought to market or usage differed through decarbonization. Importantly, it also fosters social solidarity in a time of American hardship.  A windfall tax ensures that the burden is shared more equitably, that the subset of Americans that have lined their portfolios with fossil fuel stocks and have the means to support their neighbours struggling at the pump do so.  That the pain is shared around equally.

Fossil fuel companies are engaged in war-profiteering while the average American is forced to pay more at the gas pump. Through one decisive policy move, President Biden could help push for more equitable gas prices, foster greater social solidarity and provide relief to the electorate.  If he seizes the initiative now, it could be one of the defining moments of his presidency.

Race to the WH Articles

By: Logan Phillips, Editor In Chief
Date: March 28th

Since 2017, there are few politicians that have been more loyal to Donald Trump than Mo Brooks.  After the 2020 election, Brooks was the first member of either Chamber of Congress to announce their intention to contest the results on January 6th. It was no surprise that Donald Trump endorsed his bid for the Senate just under a year ago, when he said “Mo Brooks has my Complete and Total Endorsement for the U.S. Senate representing the Great State of Alabama. He will never let you down!”

More surprising was Trump’s recent decision to rescind his endorsement, claiming that Mo Brooks had gotten “too woke”. Trump cited a comment Brook’s made on one day last summer, when he told a crowd to move on from the 2020 election. That strains credulity, because Brooks has since supported Trump’s claims about “voter fraud” on numerous occasions.

Instead, this was about power, both real and perceived, and the threat that Mo Brooks posed to Trump, regardless of his intentions. In the days before Trump’s announcement, two pollsters released surveys showing Brooks had fallen from first place, surpassed by both Katie Britt and Mike Durant. Suddenly, he was on track to finish an embarrassing third place.

Donald Trump is adept at wielding power within his own party to crush opposition and successfully cow politicians into doing what he wants. His endorsement has been one of his most potent weapons. It was a threat to remove politicians that opposed him by wooing primary voters to support his chosen replacement. Opposition within the party declined after the 2018 election, when Trump successfully removed opponents, like frequent critic Mark Sanford, by backing challengers.

After the 2020 election, Donald Trump started challenging his rivals with little restraint. He endorsed challengers to elected officials that refused to support his attempts to overturn the election in 2020, and he waded into many of the most high-profile Senate and Governor races to support his favorite loyalist.

For this article, we went through all of the endorsements Trump made for this election cycle, and focused on the Governor/Senate elections where he supported someone that:

1.     Had at least one competent challenger

2.     Wasn’t an incumbent on track to easily win the election with or without Trump’s endorsement

Twelve races qualified. We run a primary polling average for every 2022 Senate and Governor race. In the ten races with polling, Trump endorsed candidates are only on track to win four of them. Some, like Kari Lake in Arizona and Herschel Walker in Georgia, are currently on track to win the nomination. Many others could lose, like Kelly Tshibaka in Alaska, David Perdue in Georgia, Janice McGeachin in Idaho, and Ted Budd in North Carolina.

Arguably, perception here matters more than reality – so long as politicians believed Trump could knock them out of office, by and large, they would not cross him even when they disagreed with him. That threat does not look as palpable today as it did a year ago. The recent polling suggest that Republican primary voters haven’t turned on Trump - they still like him, and may even take his endorsement seriously, but at the end of the day, they will make their own decisions.

Trump’s decision to pull his endorsement in Alabama at the 11th hour will do nothing to change the perception of the politicians in office planning their next moves. Most are astute operatives who will take note of the changing dynamics. Many will still covet Trump’s endorsement – a clear asset in a primary – but they will note that it’s no longer a ticket to near-certain victory. Failing to win it is no longer a death sentence.

Now that its value has depreciated, the price politicians are willing to pay for his endorsement will also go down. Some will no longer take policy or political positions that they find morally problematic. Some will no longer be willing to take unpopular Trump-supported positions that could hurt them badly in a general election. We can already see it happening now. With a few exceptions, the entire Republican party has taken a far stronger line against Vladimir Putin and Russia than Trump was ever comfortable with.

If anything, we’ve learned that history can still be used as a guide to the present, and that Donald Trump isn’t superhuman. Parties change all the time – and that’s a good thing. Democracy should always be responsive to the needs of the American people, not the needs of a few powerful men. Just as Donald Trump took the Republican party in a new direction, future leaders will do the same. Nothing lasts forever.

Race to the WH Articles

By: Joseph Brusgard, Staff Writer

Date: March 22nd

The race for the House of Representatives is heating up as we enter the primary season, and we’re predicting the results for every state in our new House Race Ratings. Here are three races that could end up playing a decisive factor in deciding the majority.

1. California’s 22nd Congressional District

It’s no secret that Republicans are striving to build on their surprisingly strong showing with Latino voters from 2020, and California’s 22nd district is one of the few competitive majority Latino districts in the nation. Republican David Valadao will be in for a tough fight to retain his seat. 

That's familiar territory for the Congressman. He has won on blue turf in three straight elections from 2012 to 2016, before being knocked out of office by TJ Cox in 2018. Valadao won the rematch in 2020 and got more support in his district than Donald Trump.

His new district is even bluer, and it would have voted for Joe Biden by 13 points. For most, that would push the race out of reach for most, but Valadao still has a shot at victory. He regularly breaks with his party and was just one of ten Representatives to support Donald Trump’s impeachment after his efforts to overturn the last election and role in the January 6 riots that broke through the capitol. 

Unlike the other Republican House members that did the same, he isn't being challenged by a Trump-backed primary challenger. There was some publish backlash, but the party is being strategic and realizes that without Valadao, they won’t have a shot here.

His opponent will almost certainly be Democratic State Assemblyman Rudy Salas, the only Democrat running, who has already won the backing of former Congressman Cox. Salas’s base is in Bakersfield, the 9th biggest city in California, and he’ll need a strong turnout there to win. He’ll need to secure strong support with Latinos, which will be a challenge against Valadao.

This is one of the ten most competitive congressional elections in the nation in our House forecast. We currently have him narrowly favored, with a  53% chance of winning re-election. 

#2: North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District:

If Republicans end up having a strong cycle in 2022, they can play offense in the newly redrawn first congressional district of North Carolina. It’s a highly competitive seat that leans just 6% towards the Democratic party, left open by Congressman G.K. Butterfield.  

The district contains the fast-growing blue city of Greenville in the heart of the black belt, along with several small cities like Rocky Mount and Wilson. While those cities have shifted to the left, the rural parts of the district are shifting to the right. They have roughly counterbalanced each other, creating a highly competitive political battleground in NC-1.

However, Republicans could blow their opportunity if they nominate the current frontrunner, Sandy Smith. Smith is easily one of the most extreme candidates in the country on either side of the aisle. She’s raised red flags by openly and enthusiastically opposing a democratic transition of power in 2020 and claiming her own loss was a result of voter fraud by Dominion voting machines, which weren’t even used in her district.

Smith attended the violent January 6th riot. Unlike others that did the same, like Doug Mastriano, she is still continuing to brag about her role there, even after the rioters breached the capitol doors and injured over 140 police officers. 

This might not hurt her in the primary - where she has raised a significant amounts of money, but it will almost certainly hurt her in the general election. Even before she took such an extreme turn, she lost by 10% in 2020 when she won the nomination against Butterfield. This district is still Democratic-leaning, and going all-in on claims of electoral fraud will not do Republicans any favors. 

There are other alternatives that would give the GOP a far better shot, including the Mayor of Rocky Mount, Sandy Roberson. He has over $1,000,000 to spend on his campaign, although much of that comes from a self-loan. 

On the Democratic side, former State Senator Erica Smith dropped out of the Senate Race several months ago and set her sights on the Democratic nomination. She’s likely the frontrunner, after raising close to $500k for her Senate race. Fellow State Senator Don Davis, the former Mayor of Snow Hill, is also in the running, along with Julian Bishop Jr. and Jason Spriggs. 

Erica Smith is running a progressive campaign, and this could turn into an ideological proxy war between progressives and moderates. Smith has criticized Davis for his votes on an abortion bill, in which Davis voted to block taxpayer money from going to clinics that perform abortions. 

Davis has disputed these charges, touting his support for reproductive freedom. This issue could become even more salient if the Supreme Court makes a ruling partially or fully overturning Roe v. Wade in Dobbs V. Jackson. In the general election, this could easily cause turnout to surge in both the rural red parts of the district and the bluer small cities. 

Overall, Democrats are still favored, with a 70% chance of winning, but that chance will drop if someone else other than Sandy Smith is the nominee.

#3: Oregon’s 5th Congressional District:

In the process of redistricting, Oregon Democrats made a gamble that could pay off for them by the decade’s end. In 2022, it could cost them dearly. The 5th district was redrawn to be one of the most competitive in the entire state. It includes the city of Bend, which is trending leftward at a fast rate, along with parts of Portland’s suburbs. Everything in between those two areas is firm Republican territory.

Democratic Congressman Kurt Schrader has been in office since 2009 and survived the 2010 and 2014 red waves by comfortable margins. He’s a conservative Democrat, who has voted against the American Recovery Plan and was critical of the second Trump impeachment.

Schrader is facing a primary challenger from Jamie McLeod Skinner, who ran for Secretary of State in 2020 and was endorsed by some prominent backers such as Elizabeth Warren. Skinner has also won the backing of some local county Democratic parties, which highlights the struggle he faces.

Complicating matters further, Schrader is a stranger to a lot of the new terrain in his district, which means he won’t have quite as much name recognition as incumbents usually do. Schrader is still the favorite in the primary, but he’s not guaranteed a united base in the general election.

On the Republican side, two candidates have filed. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of Happy Valley, a Portland suburb, and Jimmy Crumpacker, an investor. Of these two candidates, DeRemer is probably the favorite to win the nomination.

We have Schrader at a 72% chance of winning in the end, but there is a very real chance that if Schrader can’t excite certain parts of the base, Republicans can steal this seat away from Democrats in an upset. 

The Big Picture

For the full picture of the 2022 House elections, explore our interactive House Forecast, which predicts the chances both parties have of winning the majority and tracks how many seats each party is expected to gain in every state. We are also running interactive forecasts for the 2022 Senate Election and the Governor races.

Race to the WH Articles

By: Logan Phillips, Editor in Chief

Date: March 14th

Democrats have held the Governor Mansion in Denver since 2006. Paradoxically, that may make Republicans feel optimistic this year because voters in the US tend to prefer change. It’s going to be challenging even in a strong environment for Republicans because the Centennial State is no longer nearly as competitive after a sharp lurch to the left in the Obama and Trump years. Time will tell if Republicans' slide with white college-educated voters is enduring, or whether it will bounce back from the lows of the Trump era. If it’s the latter, they have a better chance of mounting a successful upset.

Still, it’s not hopeless for Republicans. Colorado is not California. It leans 6% towards Democrats -a clear but not insurmountable advantage under the right circumstances. Early polls show that Democratic Jared Polis is quite popular. He’s become known nationally for chartering a middle course on Covid, initially taking aggressive steps to limit the pandemic, but was months ahead of most other Democrats on reducing restrictions and encouraging businesses to reopen. Polis said about the restrictions, “We have to understand that while of course there's an economic cost of caution, it's also about the social-emotional cost of people.”

Today, RacetotheWH is launching our Colorado Governor Forecast, which will predict the results of the election, and track all the latest polling. The Republican party’s primary is still contested, so our forecast runs through three different matchups featuring the top three Republican candidates for the nomination.

The early frontrunner to represent the Republican party is Heidi Ganahl, who won a statewide election to the Colorado Board of Regents. She’s promised to bolster the police department, lower taxes, and address the mental health crisis.
She’s challenged by Greg Lopez, the former Mayor of Parker, and a child of Mexican immigrants, who has emphasized support for small businesses. Finally, Danielle Neuschwanger, a de-escalation instructor for first responders, is also in the running. Neuschwanger emphasizes preserving agriculture but got into trouble after suggesting that Polis, the first gay governor in American history, was faking his sexuality for extra votes.

Our state forecasts go further than anyone when it comes to using data to show all aspects of the political battleground, including the latest polling, current fundraising levels, a map showing the partisan lean of each county, approval ratings for every candidate, and a trendline of the state’s shifting politics since 1965. In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasts in the nation. In Colorado, our projection was almost perfect. We predicted that Governor John Hickenlooper would beat Senator Corey Gardner by 9.3%, and his actual margin of victory was 9.32%.

At launch, Jared Polis is in an excellent position. In fact, right now our forecast projects that Polis will win re-election by slightly more than he won in 2018. That would be an impressive feat, especially if Republicans are able to make good on their dreams of building a red wave. Polis is well-positioned to survive even a raucous red wave because he has been able to maintain support with both Democrats and independents.

However, we still have a long time until election day, and the political headwinds in the Centennial state still could end up blowing the Polis re-election campaign off course. That’s why we still give the GOP a viable chance of pulling off an upset. Right now, none of the GOP candidates are well known, and they will do their best to offer a compelling alternative to Polis that can attract swing voters to their side.

Right below is this first piece of our interactive Colorado Senate Forecast. You can find the full page here, updated daily from now until election day.

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By: Logan Phillips, Editor in Chief

Date: March 7th

President Joe Biden has faced a difficult six-month period of declining poll numbers, initially driven by the unexpectedly rapid collapse of the Afghani Government in August, and after his ordered pullout of American troops after 20 years of war. The fall was swift at first, and his support dropped from just under 52% to 45% by late October. Even after Biden's support stabilized, it still slowly trickled away over the next four months, reaching a low of 42.3% entering the State of the Union.

At long last, Joe Biden is primed for a surge as he faces down the greatest challenge yet of his Presidency. Putin's invasion of Ukraine has put the world on edge and raised fears not just about the unnecessary suffering of the Ukrainian people, but also the possibility that we could be entering a new unstable period of violence and economic uncertainty. It threatens to end an era of historically low levels of war between states that has lasted for over seventy years since the end of World War 2.

If Russia can achieve its strategic objectives in the war, especially without paying a serious price, then it would send a clear signal to other nations that they can invade their militarily weaker neighbors with impunity. It's no exaggeration to say that millions of people could be killed or displaced from wars that we can’t even conceive of today.

Biden's response to Ukraine has arguably been his finest moment. He's rallied the world to prosecute maximal sanctions against Russia, and the economic impact has already been devastating. In just a week, the Russian stock market crashed by over 25%, and their currency's value plummeted by 30%. Moreover, the United States, its NATO allies, and nations far outside of Europe and North America are offering significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which has been fighting a surprisingly strong war against Russia.

Clearly, the stakes are much larger than politics. Nonetheless, this presents a real opportunity for Biden to regain the support of the American people. In a rare stroke of political luck for Biden, the State of the Union speech happened a week after the invasion. It gave the President the perfect opportunity to reframe the narrative on Ukraine and show Americans what he has already achieved, and how he will lead going forward.

This past weekend, Marist College, one of just 12 pollsters that RacetotheWH gives an A+ rating, released the first poll since his speech. They showed Biden's support at 47%, an 8% gain over the poll they released just a week earlier.

One of the most encouraging parts of the poll for Biden was his surging support with Millennials and Gen Z. His support in the earlier Marist poll had fallen to an abysmal 39%. However, it rose 17% to a much stronger 56%. Across the board, there were clear signals that Biden's base was returning. His approval with Democrats hit the highest level since July, at 90%.

Biden also got a 10% boost with independents, and reach 42% approval with rural voters, which is an all-time personal high. That last number seems a bit too high to be accurate, but it’s still an encouraging sign for the President, who has long prioritized trying to win back some of the rural support that has fallen away from Democrats in the last six years.

For an up to date Approval Rating, and a full list of polls, follow our Biden Approval Rating Tracker, updated daily.

Keep in mind – this is just the very first poll released. The best way to understand the political battleground is to look at the full picture of all polls released. That’s why we keep a polling average of Joe Biden’s approval rating at RacetotheWH. As excellent of a pollster as Marist is, the other polls coming in the next few days could tell a different story.

While I’m not confident that Biden has gained as much as 8%, I think it is likely Biden has gotten a real bounce. Voters have been very focused on Covid-19 and inflation, and that’s been bad for Biden. However, Ukraine has now become one of the defining issues of this political moment. According to a tool that tracks how often the media mentions different words in its coverage, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox have mentioned the Ukraine crisis ten times more than both Covid and Inflation combined.

Biden might gain support on other factors beyond Ukraine. The United States Covid-19 rate has plummeted to about 5% of its omicron-fueled high, the lowest rate since July. Restrictions have been relaxed in most states. Jobs have continued to grow at a quick clip.

Challenges remain. Inflation continues to be high, and oil prices are already rising because of the conflict and sanctions on Russia. That will likely continue.

Right now, polls indicate that Americans are more than willing to pay higher prices to support Ukraine’s fight against Russia. However, there's no guarantee they will feel the same way in the months to come, and Biden might be on the receiving end of frustrating families dealing with another high expense they can barely afford.

House and Senate

In the last week, Democrats gained some ground in our House Forecast, after performing better than expected in Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Track the political battleground in each state here, and the overall forecast here. Nationally, Republicans are the favorites, but Democrats retain a fighting shot at victory.

In the Senate, Democrats are very modest favorites to hold onto the chamber. Republicans need to flip only one seat to win. Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto regained her lead in the polls and is once again (slightly) favored to win re-election in Nevada.

In the national generic ballot, Republicans have taken a lead of about 1.9%. That doesn't assure victory, as we learned in 2018 when Democrats won by their largest margin in the national popular vote since Watergate, but still lost a Senate seat. This time around, the map favors Democrats, so Republicans likely need a strong midterm to take the majority.

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