The U.S. Dollar Index has been trying to push lower to a “four to six o’clock” 34EMA Wave angle and with three 34 period EMA low rejections, the resistance has been confirmed.

The dollar’s downtrend – independent of the euro’s WEEKLY downtrend – is going to be something difficult to balance if the 1.3250 level in the $EURUSD is where the bears plan to hang out.

The 1.3250 which is also near the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level is where the battle for supremacy of the pair is taking place.

Here’s the SMACKDOWN chart. The weekly $EURUSD with its 1) downtrend and 2) 20 period SMA close resistance.

The weekly $EURUSD is a total honey-badger* and it doesn’t give a ____ that the daily chart has been moving higher and likely won’t be affected unless there is support above 1.3250.

Here’s the scenario: The euro will suffer with the barrage of headlines and could fall back into a choppy range with 1.3250 being the level that continues to be the line in the sand for the pair. The possibility of QE3 could continue to pressure the dollar and keep it in 1) a range or 2) following through in the downtrend that seems to be freshly established. These are not guesses but rather interpretation of current market trends, support and resistance. The Dow continues to march higher and that’s the clearest trend of all three of these charts.

The Dow $YM_F $INDU continues to climb in a healthy “twelve to two o’clock” 34EMA Wave angle.

Each morning and every trade, one of the most important questions I ask myself is “Where is the RISK? On or off the table?” This question will shed light on what factors will come into play for my entry to follow through. This question has also been increasingly difficult to answer.  The lack of organized sentiment and momentum has made each session a independent – rather than a continuation – of the one that preceded it and the one that will follow.

* only click on this link if you are NOT easily offended

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The video runs 18-minutes and explains what I look for in *normal* Forex Market Pulse correlation relationships as well as the way the $USDCAD and $AUDUSD are behaving because of the way the U.S. Dollar Index $DX_F Dow Jones Industrial Average $YM_F and crude oil $CL_F are trending.

A couple take-aways…the dollar, Dow, and crude oil markets are all trending higher on their daily charts with the dollar being the strongest. The question for traders then is which is dictating price action and therefore whether risk appetite really is the reason for the crude oil rally or whether it is the concerns in Iran. (That’s my vote.) The usual push-pull of the dollar and Dow are not in play and this makes gauging risk a little more complicated especially when you consider that crude oil is moving higher while the Continuous Commodity Index has been trending lower.

Questions? Comments. Leave ‘em here at the blog!

This decision was not taken lightly. I have been using a notebook/pen combo as a planner since 7th grade but it dawned on me that my planner has been steadily neglected in favor of the electronic “nagging” of my iPhone Calendar. Frankly I need it so in order to make the switch I have found and installed a number of apps, some free, some not, that should help me make the transition.

I discovered Springpad about a month ago and with the site as well as the app on my iPad and iPhone I can keep track of articles, images, and make notes. I prefer Springpad to Evernote although I still use both, I find myself logging into Springpad more often. http://www.springpadit.com but I still have a ton of awesome links at Evernote.

By the way, I actually have been using Instapaper and Read It Later for links more and more…so there’s a chance that I’ll transition completely to those two in time. Read It Later is particularly great since it’s also available on my Kindle Fire as well.

As my planner is resting on the shelves, I did find I needed something more than that iPhone’s calendar. As much as I like a “planner”, I really don’t like or need to plan out every hour of every day. Instead I need to make sure that the occasional appointment/webinar/interview is not forgotten (perfect for the iPhone) and that I organize my projects. Enter the Action Method from Behance. A trio of a (free) iPhone app, iPad app, and website which all syncs allows me to brainstorm on any of my devices and keep track of them. The Action Method is simple and the apps/site are very intuitive so check it out. http://www.actionmethod.com

So far we’ve got free apps and sites and I could stop here but I know I have some bad habits to work around, enter Commit. This simple 99 cent “nag” app takes the tasks that you want to make sure you do with regularity and reminds you to do them as well as keeps track of how often you do them. http://www.thinklegend.com/commit/

Two more apps are purely optional but filled a need. I often “journaled” in my planner (simply planning a day is no good unless you have some sort of connection to WHY and HOW you’re doing it!) and it’s something I’d like to two once or twice a day, even if it’s just a sentence or two. The Day One app (also with a nice “nag” feature) helps me do just that on my iPhone and iPad. I have mine set to remind me to “journal” twice a day – once and in the morning and once in the evening – it also has a nice password protection feature to keep your pesky brother from reading your diary You can star favorite entries and it syncs to Dropbox so I can move form iPhone to iPad smoothly. I’ll usually put some general thoughts down on my iPhone and elaborate on the iPad or even my MacBook. http://www.dayoneapp.com/

The last app is a journaling app as well but it’s linked to my YouTube, Digg, Facebook, and Twitter accounts (as well as last.fm, Instagram, and more!) It automatically includes these entries in an automatic journal. I like it because it lets me see my social site activity and keeps the links to these entries handy. The app is called Momento and you can check it out at http://www.momentoapp.com

That’s it. My geeky, electronic transition has begun…all thanks to a twelve-year old who was hell-bent on making sure he got my iPhone. Love it!

It’s a matter of (bearish) perspective as the 80.00 level remains elusive and ready to put on the pain if the bulls venture toward it. The level has been broken but momentum faltered soon after. If you’re looking at the shorter-term, intraday charts of the day, the dollar’s weakness seems much more impressive than it really was as compared to the shallow pullback seen on the daily.

The (bullish) dollar perspective is that we’re looking at a morning following a record-breaking shopfest filled with more Black Friday deals (that seemed to start Wednesday no?), pepper spray, and random midnight stampedes that rivaled a general admission concert. Europe spat up some bullish headlines and no clarity and the lack of clarity – as we already know – is the real buzzkill. This is today. Tomorrow brings the shopper’s remorse: Go broke saving money. 

I’m not trying to put a damper on the equities rally but I am interested in the reality of this risk appetite and how long stomachs will be growling. Probably not long.

The U.S. Dollar Index $DX_F did not even make the shallowest of retracements, falling well short of the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

The U.S. Dollar’s $DX_F weakness today was not impressive and not surprising considering the 80.00 major psychological level overhead. The brief break of 79.00 looked promising for the bears but lacked enough momentum and subsequent resistance at the “00″ to keep the greenback pressured. But don’t ignore today’s doji candle which could signal a potential top in the uptrend…IF risk appetite can hang around.

The doji left behind in today’s session should none-the-less be respected as a move lower through 78.92 would not only be a major psych level break but also confirm a minor high reversal.

Interestingly my afternoon was fueled by dollar-strength…

The five-minute $DX_F chart shows just how much the bulls took back control of the dollar once the greenback hit 78.95. The support surrounding a major psychological level is five pips above and five pips below and this bounce showed just how much support kicked in as the 79.00 was tested.

 The $ES_F has found support (for now) at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. This is a good sign for bulls although a more meaningful shift will be a move higher through 1205.

There will be a lot of talk about the 1200 level overhead and how this major psychological level will keep the market under pressure and certainly a move higher through 1205 would be a bullish sign but for now the 50% Retracement support will have to suffice.

The sentiment was increasingly bearish even as I held my bullish opinion on the #ES_F. I had bought into two pullbacks and was expecting a push to higher highs as long as the uptrend hung on but congestion and a triangle pattern dimmed those hopes.

However there was no reason to abandon my trade until the support was gone. If I always jumped ship on news that was contrary to my opinion I would seldom put on a trade. At some point – as a chartist – you simply have to trust price action. This is the same trust I had to have when I reversed my position, realizing a loss as price broke 1228 and the uptrend line of the pattern which I expected would quickly usher the contract to the major psychological level.

 The daily chart of the #ES_F broke lower through the Triangle pattern which begun what I view as the acceleration to the downside.

The support of the pattern was the “decision level” for me since it was my expectation that IF price traded through this level that the #ES_F would accelerate to the downside. The break of 1200 is psychologically significant but less so because the daily chart is likely transitioning into a sideways chop.

 This sell-off has indeed taken the wind out of the bulls’ sail and it has effectively ended the short-lived uptrend however this does not mean that this is now a downtrend. This is a transitional market and one that could be faded if prices can find a floor. So where could the possible floor be waiting?

Interestingly enough, today’s low reached for the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level from the October 4 low to the October 27 high. Was today’s rally into the close the near-term floor? If so I am viewing this as nothing more than the $ES_F re-entering the range-bound chop that it will likely remain within through the end of the year. Certainly there could be a rally that could carry the index to the prior 1289 high but as long as Europe is an unknown look for 1300 to elude the bulls. Super Committee “$1.2 trillion issues” aside, I think Europe is still the driver of this market.

If the $AUDJPY can find a floor it will be stronger confirmation of equities strength but for now the $AUDJPY is still firmly in bearish territory if not quite yet a downtrend on the daily. The $AUDJPY’s break through the 34 period Exponential Moving Average low occurred on November 11 with an acceleration lower through 78.00.