Raising Islands--Hawai'i science and environment

A new discovery in the Hawaiian web of life

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 15:35:00 +0000

The Hawaiian islands are connected, not only geologically, but with an intricate web of life.

This fact has been reestablished in the past week with the announcement of the discovery of a series of closely related moths on three islands of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands—moths that have been evolving in the Islands for 30 million years.

(Image: The eight new species of moths from the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. Source: NOAA.)

The moths are new to science, but this kind of connectivity is not.

In the wet forests of the Island, the alani or melicope species are an example. The various species are clearly related, even to an untrained eye. They tend to have large waxy leaves that form a fat oval. They tend to be leggy. Small, delicate flowers.

They are very much the same in many ways. And different.

A Kaua'i species, mokihana, has the famous anise scent, which the other species lack. The four-parted seed pods are tightly closed in some species, but the seed cases spread out like petals on a bloom in others.

There are the cave spiders, hunting spiders with less-developed eyes on the older islands than on the younger ones.

And forest birds with different colors and food preferences on different islands, but otherwise clearly closely related.

On and on. Cousins of a Molokai bug live on Kaua'i alongside bird cousins, plant cousins and so forth.

Perhaps what's most surprising about the new moths is that they have survived long enough to be found, not that they ever existed.

Reseachers Patrick Schmitz and Daniel Rubinoff announced their find in the journal Zootaxa: eight new members of the moth genus Hyposmocoma, all found within islands of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.

The genus Hyposmocoma is unique to Hawai'i, but the group is well represented here, with more than 300 species, most of them on the major islands, and one previously known from the northwestern islands—from Necker or Mokumanamana. Some species are from the wet forest, some from aquatic habitats, and the new finds suggest that species have also evolved to handle very arid habitats of the low northwestern islands.

A monument press release included these quotations:

“This is a great snapshot of species endemism, one that indicates how species have evolved on islands throughout the whole archipelago over time,” said Rubinoff. “We are continuing our research now, but it is possible that the ancient ancestor of the now uniquely Hawaiian Hyposmocoma moths may have landed on a young Northwestern Hawaiian Island and evolved over millions of years into several lineages, which hopped down the island chain, spawning a diversity of species.”

“Although only a few of the lineages that were once on the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands are still holding on there now, these tiny atolls, in a former life, were the crucibles of one of the most diverse groups on the current High Islands. The species we described from the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands are the descendents of those original, and likely ancient, Hyposmocoma lineages and they have hung on, adapting over time to the islands’ current severe dry conditions. They are the survivors.”

“I am certain more species are waiting to be discovered in the Monument, since we’ve found hard evidence of their caterpillars and know them to be unique,” said Rubinoff. “We also know that Gardner Pinnacles has at least one endemic species and possibly more, but we just haven’t been able to get there yet to document it.”

Among the ways these creatures are distinguished from each other, besides their unique wing coloring, is that their larval cases have very different shapes.

The new species are:

• Hyposmocoma laysanensis, named after and found only on Laysan Island

• Hyposmocoma ekemamao, a larger species found only on Laysan Island and named for its purselike case (eke in Hawaiian) and the island’s remoteness (mamao in Hawaiian)

• Hyposmocoma opuumaloo, found only on Mokumanamana and named from the Hawaiian opu‘u, cone, and malo‘o, dry, referring to its cone-shaped case and the island’s dry habitat (most cone-cased species in the Main Hawaiian Islands are aquatic)

• Hyposmocoma mokumana, found on Mokumanamana and named for the island

• Hyposmocoma nihoa, found on Nihoa and named for the island

• Hyposmocoma kikokolu, found on Nihoa and named from the Hawaiian kiko, spot, and kolu, three, referring to the three spots on its forewing

• Hyposmocoma menehune, found on Nihoa and named for the nocturnal Hawaiian legendary menehune

• Hyposmocoma papahanau, found on Nihoa and named after Papahanaumokuakea

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

KIUC proposes hybrid renewable rate scheme

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 20:10:00 +0000

The Kauai Island Utility Cooperative is proposing a new system to expand the production of electricity by small renewable operations like rooftop solar or small wind generators.

It has the potential to provide a roadmap toward a distributed power generation future for Kaua'i.

(Image: a vertical axis Wind Lotus wind generator. Credit: Leviathan Energy. )

The utility is calling it net energy meeting, although it's not. It appears to be a hybrid rate system. It values excess energy from small power producers less than does traditional net energy metering, but more than what it would cost the utility to produce its own power.

And it aims to support larger renewable energy systems than does net energy metering, which, according to KIUC's own documents, is “intended primarily to offset part or all of the customer’s own electrical requirements.”

In traditional net energy metering, the excess power you produce is valued the same as the power you purchase. If you have photovoltaic panels, the power you produce in the sunshine offsets the power you consume at night, kilowatt for kilowatt. The meter runs backwards when you're producing excess power.

The problem with the system is that it doesn't compensate the utility for its non-generation costs—paying for distribution systems, making repairs, answering phones, sending out bills, etc. That means that other power users in the community are subsidizing you. It's not a sustainable system. If everyone were net metering, the utility would be bankrupt.

The Hawai'i Public Utilities Commission (PUC) limited net energy metering to 1 percent of KIUC's peak power demand, and the utility met that limit last year. Thus no new net energy metering hookups are now being approved.

At KIUC, they have another system called Schedule Q. Here, you buy electricity at the going rate—currently in the neighborhood of $.35 a kilowatt-hour—and you sell power at about $.10. You could call this a wholesale price for power. Or, with Schedule Q, you can simply size your system to meet a portion of your electrical load, so you just avoid buying power when your system is able to produce power. The meter never runs backwards. You just pay for all KIUC power you use.

The new system, which KIUC is confusingly calling a Net Energy Metering (NEM) Pilot Program, is, it says, designed to “analyze the potential benefits of customer generation.” It is similar to the Schedule Q, as best we can determine, although it doubles the rate for excess power to $.20 per kilowatt hour.

Here is how the utility describes it: “KIUC‟s NEM pilot program will allow renewable customer generators to supply their own power needs and be paid $0.20/kWh for power they export to the utility. When they do not have sufficient power to supply their own needs, they will pay regular tariff rates for the power they receive from the utility.”

It still requires PUC approval, and it has certain limitations. The program capacity is limited to no more than 3 megawatts of total capacity. Two-thirds of that, or 2 megawatts of capacity, is set aside for pretty big systems, sized 50 kilowatts to 200 kilowatts. Another sixth, or half a megawatt, is for systems from 10 to 50 kilowatts. And the remaining half a megawatt is for home-sized systems of 10 kilowatts or less.

KIUC customers who are already operating under Schedule Q can upgrade to the new system.

The new system already has the support of them state Consumer Advocate, the Hawai‘i Renewable Energy Association, and the Hawai‘i Solar Energy Association.

On the other islands, the PUC has approved a feed-in tariff, which has not yet been required of KIUC (although it may be at some point). A feed-in tariff generally applies to stand-alone renewable power generation facilities—like a windfarm, or an industrial-scale solar power plant—and it pays a premium for the renewable power to encourage people to build them.

Feed-in tariffs are negotiated on a case-by-case basis, and guarantee renewable power generators a profit, just as the PUC guarantees utilities a rate structure that provides a profit.

KIUC's new system, then, it not quite net energy metering, since your meter never runs backwards, and it's not quite a feed-in tariff, since it allows consumers to offset their own real-time power use while selling power at a higher rate than the wholesale price.

Our editorial comment: It needs a new name.

Another leap for Hawai'i fish farming: Ahi spheres approved

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 20:35:00 +0000

Ocean farming has had a troubled past, but it's moving forward quickly as technology improves.

The state Board of Land and Natural Resources just approved a Conservation District Use Permit for the latest and largest ocean aquaculture venture.

(Image: Artist's rendering of the Hawaii Ocean Technology fish farms, approved Friday by the land board. Credit: Hawaii Ocean Technology LLC)

Already in Hawai'i, you can buy moi from open ocean farms off south O'ahu. It's grown by Grove Farm Fish & Poi, and is served at fine restaurants across the state. Grove Farm Fish & Poi is planning to roughly quadruple its production in Mamala Bay. An early slideshow of predecessor company Cates International is here.

And you can get kahala or Kona Kampachi or Hawaiian yellowtail from Kona Blue Water Farms' ocean cages in waters deeper than 200 feet off Kona on the Big Island. See here.

Kona Blue uses a technology called Sea Station, which creates a flying-saucer-looking netted structure that can be raised and lowered in the water column. But the firm cites transportation costs to Mainland markets for a proposal to cut its production by 40 percent and look to Mexico for future growth.

There's another proposal by a venture called Indigo Seafood to put moi cages off the Big Island.

The most innovative new proposal is Hawaii Ocean Technology's Ahi Sphere project, which would be the largest ocean aquaculture project in the Islands to date. The land board approved the CDUA for the project Friday.

The company this year released its final environmental impact statement for its proposal to grow tuna in a fleet of twelve 160-foot-diameter “ocean spheres” which actually look more like geodesic domes than spheres.

“The company proposes to grow out the tuna to market size in offshore submerged cages, segregated by species, that are self-powered un-tethered 54m diameter 'Oceanspheres.' The proposed ocean lease site is a one square kilometer (247-acre) site, 1,320-feet deep, located 2.6 nautical-miles offshore Malae Point, North Kohala. Twelve Oceanspheres will be deployed incrementally over four years, culminating with an annual production capacity of 6,000 tons,” the report says.

It will be managed out of Kawaihae Harbor, and boats will be on site daily to handle feeding, harvesting and other duties. The baby fish—yellowfin and bigeye tuna-- will be grown at a University of Hawai'i facility.

Critics of sea farming ventures warn of disease among tightly-packed fish that could spread to wild populations. Of pollution from the concentrations of fish scat and uneaten fish food. Of attracting sharks. Of the loss of use of portions of the ocean.

The EIS addresses these issues at some length, but briefly, it argues:

The project will work with the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology to monitor and manage the project for disease control. The site has been selected for its strong currents, which will very quickly dilute and sweep away organic matter. The cages have powerful netting that should be impenetrable to sharks. And it says the area selected is not an actively fished zone—it is beyond the ono trolling grounds and deeper than most bottomfish grounds. Boaters will be permitted to transit through the lease area, as long as they stay 100 feet from the spheres, which will be marked with buoys.

The spheres will have GPS capability, will be self-propelled, and capable of maintaining position without being anchored to the sea floor.

Biofuels: UN cites the good, the bad, the ugly

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:44:00 +0000

There's petroleum and there's biofuel. They can do much of the same thing, but they're really quite different, especially in their climate impacts.

As with much in life, it just ain't simple.

That's particularly the case with biofuels, which are playing an increasing role in the Hawaii energy picture. There's still sugar being converted into energy on Maui. There's talk of growing cane for ethanol and electricity on Kauai. And research into growing crops like Jatropha for biodiesel. There's research into oil from algae. And more

The hype has been that:

1) You get a severe climate result when you suck oil or bulldoze coal out of the ground and burn it—dumping a huge load of carbon into the atmosphere; and that,

2) Biofuel is much better--at least carbon neutral. It's made from growing products, so that it sucks up atmospheric carbon as it grows, and releases it back when it is burned.

Biofuels breathe in, and breathe out. Presumably the climate effect is nil. And that's good, right?

Not so fast, says a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme's
Division of Technology, Industry, and Economics, Sustainable Consumption & Production Branch. http://www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/Biofuels.htm

“They (biofuels) are characterized by some as a panacea representing a central technology in the fight against climate change. Others criticise them as a diversion from the tough climate mitigation actions needed or a threat to food security,” says the preface to the full 120-page report, Assessing Biofuels.

It is available here. http://www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/pdf/Assessing_Biofuels_Full_Report.pdf

And a summary here. http://www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/pdf/Assessing_Biofuels_Summary.pdf

This is not new research, but rather a very extensive literature review, aimed at trying to get a handle on biofuels. A key conclusion: this issue is complicated, so don't make casual broad-brush assumptions.

Some of the identified problems with crop-based fuels: They divert us from carbon-negative energy technologies; they divert crop production from needed food resources to fuel; many of them have their own environmental issues like soil runoff, energy intensive fertilizer use, extensive water use and so forth; and some may not be as carbon neutral as they seem.

For instance, if peat-lands and tropical forest are cleared for biofuel farming, the carbon released in that clearing may far-outweigh reduced net carbon emissions. This is a key objection to some oil palm production.

There are many, many reasons to be cautious about blanket support for biofuels, but the report also identifies another piece of the puzzle that discourages blanket opposition. We are now only working with the first generation of biofuel technology, and future biofuels may be much more environmentally acceptable than the worst of the current crop.

“Researchers are already studying advanced biofuels from sources such as algae or the natural enzymes used by termites to dissolve wood into sugars. These second or third generation technologies will require their own life cycle assessments,” the report says.

Meanwhile, for first-generation biofuels, Hawai'i can kick itself in the collective butt. The best of the best in terms of greenhouse gas savings is bioethanol from sugar cane, the crop we have nearly wiped off our landscape. (Sugar has its own issues, like high fertilizer demand.) By contrast, corn, soy and oil palm biofuels can range from greenhouse positive to dramatically negative, depending on how and where they're grown.

A key message of the UN report: Neither should you be kneejerk dazzled by biofuel, nor should you automatically reject the stuff.

It suggests a number of paths to improving things. Among them: identifying and reducing specific biofuel crop issues; using waste more efficiently; and noting that “stationary use of biomass—to generate heat and/or electricity—is typically more energy efficient than converting biomass to a liquid fuel. It may also provide much higher CO2 savings at lower costs.”

Bees and mites: more problems, new investigations

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:28:00 +0000

The state's honeybee hives are being damaged by the destructive varroa mite, and the impacts go far beyond reduced honey production.

(Image: Honeybee on a flower. Credit: NOAA Photo Library.)

Aside from the direct effect of the weakening of bees and whole colonies by the bee-blood sucking mites, there are significant indirect impacts.

One is to the bees. The varroa mite not only weakens the bees, but it can also carry bacterial and viral agents that further impact the sick insects.

And for larger society, one of the severe impacts of weak colonies with reduced numbers is that pollination of crops is significantly reduced.

The University of Hawai'i bee project is conducting research into the varroa mite.

“We are interested in developing practical treatment options for local beekeepers and establishing a sound research program that focuses on maintenance and improvement of the Hawaiian honeybees. Reducing the likelihood that the mite will invade other islands, and restricting the big island invasion is also a high priority, and we are investigating procedures for preventing feral bees from being inadvertently transported among islands on ship containers and other vessels,” says the website.

Mark Wright and Ethel Villalobos, of the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources' Plant and Environmental Protection Services, are running the bee project. They are asking O'ahu residents to report any wild honeybee hives so they can investigate virus transmission by the mites.

If you come across a wild hive, you can reach the Honeybee Varroa Project at 956-2445 or email uhbeelab@gmail.com.

Have more questions about mites? See the Department of Agriculture's list of frequently asked questions. http://hawaii.gov/hdoa/pi/ppc/varroa-bee-mite-folder/frequently-asked-questions-about-varroa-mites

Hot Hot Hot. Global temperatures still rising, El Nino extending

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 19:57:00 +0000

The period from June to September has been the warmest on record, confirming the continued warming of the global climate.

If you've been hearing people prognosticating about a global cooling trend, well...that wasn't, um, exactly true.

In fact, the first decade of the new century is on pace to be the warmest decade ever--at least for as long as records have been kept.

(Image: NASA graph showing land and ocean temperature changes. The ocean, a bigger heat sink, has less year-to-year variability, but the trend is the same. This graph goes through 2008. The 2009 number, based on mid-year information, will be a significant tick upward. See other NASA temperature data here.

And here in Hawai'i, we have something else to worry about.

The current El Nino event, which has been weak thus far, is now expected to strengthen and last at least through the winter, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center.

During El Nino events, which occur every three to five years, the waters of the tropical Pacific are significantly warmer than normal. El Nino is associated in the Islands with dry winters and more tropical storms.

Here is the link to the latest forecast.

As for the temperature, NOAA had previously announced that the summer months June to August were the warmest on record. NOAA hasn't yet announced the September data, but NASA's figures here show September 2009 was one of the warmest Septembers ever—so the NOAA announcement of a four-month record heat is inevitable.

(We thank for the tip on this the climate blog, Climate Progress.)

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

Rooftop solar as the low-cost alternative: An O'ahu example

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 20:00:00 +0000

O'ahu resident and Realtor Tony Kawaguchi started with the low-hanging fruit when he looked for ways to cut down a $625/month power bill in September 2008.

(Images: Top: Solar photovoltaic panels on Kawaguchi's roof. Bottom: “This is the Sunny Boy converter, installed by Mercury Solar. The installation took about 4 hours, and sits next to Hawaiian Electric’s meter, which now spins a lot slower than it used to,” Kawaguchi said. Credit: Tony Kawaguchi.)

He said he changed incandescent light bulbs to compact fluorescent bulbs, which use a quarter of the power for roughly the same amount of illumination. He dropped the temperature on his water heater. He retired one of his three computer monitors.

It didn't create the level of savings he was hoping for. Then he went upstairs.

Kawaguchi put a solar water heater on the roof, essentially removing his electrical cost of heating water.

And he then installed a photovoltaic system.

The electric bill was cut in half in the first month. Kawaguchi has since expanded his photovoltaic system to reap more savings. His bill was $153.47 in September 2009.

Kawaguchi said he was able to make the adjustments with very little cash outlay. He found a solar contractor with a program that financed the cost of the system at 2 percent interest. And he took advantage of a state 35 percent tax credit and federal 30 percent tax credit.

Additionally, Kawaguchi took advantage of a program under which he claimed the tax credits for paying to install solar water heaters on the roofs of low-income residents.

“I also bought another solar water system for a low income family on which I also receive the 65 percent tax credit, but the solar company finances nearly all of it at percent, and the low income family pays the loan off. So I receive the 65 percent tax credit on that $7k system, but don't have any cash out of pocket,” Kawaguchi said.

“So in reality - I paid NOTHING for all my solar power. I simply took money that I would have paid the government and instead purchased enough solar energy for other people to receive tax credits to pay for it all... I had my CPA look at it and he was already familiar with this type of deal through other solar companies,” he said.

Kawaguchi, who blogs on real estate at http://www.alohatony.com, said that from a real estate perspective, these changes make good economic sense.

“Imagine if you were a buyer comparing two similar homes in Hawaii, and one of them allowed you to have almost no power bill. That monthly savings would be a huge factor in the value you would see in that home,” he said.

Close encounters of the asteroid kind; this could be exciting

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 18:57:00 +0000

Our state and our planet can expect some astronomical excitement in coming years, with close asteroid encounters in the next three decades, and a (vaguely) possible impact within 50 years.

The asteroid is called Apophis. It swings near the Earth in 2029, 2036 and again in 2068.

(Image: The little circle marks Apophis in this University of Hawai'i Institute for Astronomy photo.)

The best and latest calculations have it missing the surface of the planet by just 20,000 miles in 2036.

"Our new orbit solution shows that Apophis will miss Earth's surface in 2036 by a scant 20,270 miles, give or take 125 miles. That's slightly closer to Earth than most of our communications and weather satellites," said David Tholen, of the University of Hawai'i Institute for Astronomy.

The calculation still isn't perfect, and scientists figure the odds at four in a million that it could hit the Earth.

The estimates are calculated from observations at Mauna Kea observatories by Tholen, former Hawaii astronomer Fabrizio Bernardi of the University of Pisa, Italy, and University of Hawai'i graduate students Marco Micheli and Garrett Elliott. From those observations, Steve Chesley, of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, calculated the positions of Apophis.

But after that really near miss, the new calculations suggest Apophis has a three in a million chance that it could crash into the Earth in 2068. Researchers will be making more detailed calculations about that possibility in 2010 when Apophis—which disappears behind the Sun during part of its orbit—swings back into view.

Tholen, Bernardi and University of Arizona astronomer Roy Tucker discovered Apophis only in 2004.

The initial orbit calculations suggested it had a small chance of impact with the Earth as early as a Friday the 13th in April 2029, but further calculations showed that would not happen.

Apophis is a couple of hundred yards across. If it did hit, that would be a big issue. But the odds are against it.

"The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not something that should be feared," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The public can follow along as we continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by visiting us on our AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the @AsteroidWatch Twitter feed."

The information in this post was drawn from the following two press releases.

Here's the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's release on the event. http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2009-151

And here's the university of Hawai'i Institute for Astronomy release. http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/info/press-releases/Apophis-TholenOct09/

Other resources:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch

http://www.nasa.gov

Air-free or free-air; taking the service out of service stations

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:33:00 +0000

They used to call them service stations, even when all they offered was fuel, water and air.

Today, at an increasing number of stations, even that's a stretch. Air is among the first to go.

(Image: Stacked tires. Credit: EIA, U.S. Department of Energy.)

These days, many gas stations will have a convenience store, selling candy bars, beer and pretzels, but they won't have even the basics when it comes to keeping your car on the road.

This is a disturbing trend. If a gas station doesn't have compressed air, who will? It's understood that a pharmacy sells bandages, and not just Viagra.

I stopped at one Kauai station to get gas and to fill up my tires. The compressor was out of order. No air. And it had been out of order for some time.

At another station, there was no compressor at all. You couldn't put air in your tires there, even if you were willing to pay for it. They referred me to a tire repair shop.

At a third, you had to feed coins into the compressor. (In some states, that coin box has become a target for vandals and thieves.)

Checking the air in your tires is something a driver ought to do every few times the car is filled up, at least a visual check and frequently a check with a tire gauge.

Low air pressure increases rolling resistance and makes you use more fuel. Differences in air pressure between tires can affect the car's performance, a safety issue. Tires are expensive, and low air can make a tire wear out quicker, and can cause tire damage. (Overinflated tires can also cause problems, reducing traction.)

But gas stations increasingly are saving money by refusing to install air compressors, or are charging for air. Some folks strongly feel that air should be free, but we are less concerned about the price than that air should at least be available.

In some states, free air is required by law. In others, a station can charge, but must provide free air service to fuel customers. (In some cases, attendants will give these folks tokens for pay compressors; in others, attendants remotely can allow free access to the compressed air.)

In California, for instance, “law requires every service station in this state to provide, during operating hours, water, compressed air, and a gauge for measuring air pressure, to the public for use in servicing any passenger or commercial vehicle, as defined.”

In Connecticut, the air must not only be free, but you legally must post a sign saying it's both available and free.

Our prediction is that if air-free (as opposed to free-air) stations continue to proliferate in Hawai'i, consumer demand will lead to legislation making it mandatory.

In the meantime, one of our energy-interested correspondents suggests stations with free air take advantage of the potential competitive boost by posting signs that they have air available.

We test the Tesla Roadster--disruptive energy technology

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 02:34:00 +0000

A conservative institution, the international financier Deutsche Bank, is arguing that oil could hit $175 by 2016—a little more than six years out.

And that will give rise to disruptive energy technologies that will change the world, the bank says.

(Image: The Tesla Roadster, an example of the disruptive electric powered vehicle technology that will crush global oil demand? Credit: Tesla Motors.)

Deutsche bank has some credibility in oil prediction. Early last year, half a year before oil hit $147 a barrel, the bank predicted it would reach $150. Hmm.

We haven't been able to find the actual $175/gal report, but the Wall Street Journal has.

The fascinating thing about Deutsche Bank's prediction is that it also suggests that will help prompt a second peak—a peak in demand.

In essence, they're saying that the high pricing (in part) will crush demand so thoroughly and permanently that prices will drop by 2030 back to today's $70 range.

We've seen a little of this kind of activity in the year since last year's oil price peak. Demand for petroleum has dropped. Global oil stockpiles are high. Oil-fired electricity demand is down. Is it more the oil price peak, or more the recession, or a combination? Don't know. But the drop in demand is there.

The Journal cites the Deutsche Bank report as saying it expects the automotive industry to promote the disruptive technology that will help drive down petroleum demand. It's hybrid and electric cars.

“We expect [electric propulsion] will reverse the dynamics of world oil demand, and spell the end of the oil age,” the Journal quotes the report saying.

By coincidence, as I write this, I'm a few hours out of a test drive in an electric car.

It was the $109,000 Tesla Roadster.

It shatters all the stereotypes of an electric car as a glorified golf cart, as a short-range neighborhood vehicle, as something an order of magnitude less than sexy.

It was red.

It was low.

It was convertible.

It had a distinctly Lotus air about it.

It was all electric.

It was the hottest car I've ever driven.

Acceleration that pulls the flesh back off the bones of your face.

Speed, well, so let's just say it reaches with elan whatever is the posted speed limit.

It nicely held the road in corners.

It has no transmission. Electric motors don't need to shift.

And it has more than 200 miles of range on a single charge.

I don't know whether the folks at Deutsche Bank have driven the Tesla Roadster. If they have, I understand their prediction.

Diseases on reefs? Overfishing and maybe butterflyfishes involved

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:03:00 +0000

Disease is killing off corals faster, in some parts of the world, than sedimentation, chemicals flowing from the land, damaging anchoring procedures and destructive fishing techniques.

And what's promoting disease? Perhaps it's overfishing and a high population of butterflyfishes.

(Image: Complex marine communities appear healthier than ones missing key players, research indicates. Credit: National Marine Fisheries Service.)

A new study suggests one thing can help protect reefs from coral disease: a diverse fish population.

This odd-seeming result, argues, the authors say, for protecting coral reefs from overfishing.

To make sense of this research, it is necessary to think of coral reefs as interlocked communities rather than simply collections of living rock. And fish are part of the community.

The paper that reported the study is in the October 6, 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. (www.pnas.org) It is entitled, “Functionally diverse reef-fish communities ameliorate coral disease,” by University of Guam Marine Laboratory researchers Laurie J. Raymundo, Andrew R. Halford, and Alexander Kerr, and University of Hawai'i Department of Zoology researcher Aileen P. Maypa.

The researchers studied reefs in the Philippines, including both fished reefs and marine protected areas. They looked at more than 20,000 coral colonies. In general, they found that reefs with diverse fish communities had less disease, and vice versa.

Their paper reports that fish are a major regulating force on reefs. Some fish, of course, eat corals, but other fish eat those fish, still others eat algae that threaten corals and so forth.

What happens if fishing pressure pulls out one piece of this three-dimensional jigsaw?

“If subject to sustained heavy fishing, entire functional groups can be lost, resulting in a cascade of effects,” the authors said.

Fish that are no longer being eaten can increase in population, building up the pressure on the things they eat, for example. The cascade of impacts threaten the stability of the reef and, “ultimately, the resilience of coral reefs is compromised.”

One additional and intriguing bit of information from the research was that areas with high butterflyfish populations tended also to have higher coral disease levels.

Anglers and spearfisherfolks tend not to target butterflyfishes, so they can actually increase in number after heavy fishing—both because they're not being killed by humans, but also because their predators are removed by human fishers.

Could these fishes be associated with coral disease spread? It looks like they might. The researchers studied data on Australian coral reefs and came up with the same results.

“Chaetodontids (butterflyfishes) again emerged as the single fish family significantly

and positively associated with disease prevalence,” they wrote.

A potential endangered whale shuffle

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 15:36:00 +0000

There's talk about moving one Hawaiian whale on and one Hawaiian whale off the federal Endangered Species List.

Why? Humpbacks have recovered nicely since being protected, while the Hawaiian inshore population of false killer whales is dropping to near 100 individuals.

(Image: humpback whale numbers have recovered, but they still face threats. This whale off Maui last year, was entangled in multiple lengths of polypropylene line. Credit: NOAA)

The humpback whale, for which the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary was designated just a dozen years ago, has recovered dramatically in numbers since whaling for it was technically halted by an international ban back in 1966.

Humpbacks had dropped in number to between 1,000 and 2,000. Now their number is estimated at more than 20,000 in the North Pacific.

The sanctuary, of course, is for more than just whales, and its survival should not be threatened by the downlisting of Hawai'i's most visible whale species. More information on the status review for humpbacks here http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/EPA-SPECIES/2009/August/Day-12/e19336.htm.

That site includes information on how to comment on the status of the whales. Deadline for comment is Oct. 13. More on this below.

Meanwhile, the Natural Resources Defense Council is calling for the endangered species listing of another Hawai'i whale, the Hawaiian false killer whale. http://www.nrdc.org/media/2009/090930a.asp

Most folks have seen humpbacks, because of their remarkable aerial acrobatics, sometimes leaping their tons upon tons entirely out of the water.

Most have never seen Hawaiian false killer whales, Pseudorca crassidens, which are large dolphins that can reach three-quarters of a ton in weight. These animals tend to be deepwater creatures, but there is a genetically distinct Hawaiian population that remains close to shore.

There are only about 120 of them, and the population has been declining for the last quarter century—the same time during which humpbacks have been rebounding.

“Given the extremely small size of this population, the loss of even a few mature adults could have serious and long-term reproductive consequences. Toxic chemicals, reduced food sources and interactions with fishing vessels are the biggest threats to this unique mammal,” said NRDC wildlife biologist Sylvia Fallon.

In a press release, the organization adds these points:

“The population faces a number of threats including interactions with local fisheries, reduced food sources and exposure to toxic chemicals. False killer whales are likely affected both by long-line and unregulated near-shore and “short” long-line fisheries. A recent study showed that disfigurement from fishing gear in this population was four times higher than for other dolphin and toothed whale species, suggesting high rates of interactions with fisheries. These fisheries may also be contributing to a decline in the size or number of the primary food source for false killer whales, which are large deep water fish including mahi mahi and yellowfin tuna.

“Recent research confirms the presence of PCBs (a toxic substance found in plastics), DDT and flame retardants in tissue samples taken from the Hawaiian false killer whales. Pollution levels found in one-third of the samples are known to cause serious health problems in marine mammals.

“The cumulative effects of these risks combined with the depleted population qualify the Hawaiian false killer whale as an endangered species under the federal Endangered Species Act. If listed, the population would become the first Hawaiian toothed whale species listed under ESA and only the second toothed whale (after the southern resident killer whale in the Pacific Northwest) listed overall. Today’s petition was sent to the Secretary of Commerce through the National Marine Fisheries Service.”

This site has images of major whale species and the threats they face, http://hawaiihumpbackwhale.noaa.gov/documents/pdfs_ocean_users/hmmthreatguide.pdf

If you choose to comment on the listing status of humpback whales, here's the contact information from the Federal Register:

DATES: To allow us adequate time to conduct these reviews, we must
receive your information no later than October 13, 2009. However, we
will continue to accept new information about any listed species at any time.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments, identified by the code 0648-XQ74,
addressed to Shannon Bettridge by any of the following methods:
   1. Electronic Submissions: Submit all electronic comments via the
Federal eRulemaking Portal http://www.regulations.gov.
   2. Facsimile (fax): 301-713-0376, Attn: Shannon Bettridge.
   3. Mail: Shannon Bettridge, National Marine Fisheries Service,
Office of Protected Resources, 1315 East-West Highway, Silver Spring,
MD 20910.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Shannon Bettridge at the above
address, or at 301-713-2322.

In climate, inherent complexity is the enemy of understanding

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 18:57:00 +0000

If complexity is the enemy of understanding, then it's no wonder that folks are confused by climate change.

The climate is so complex that nobody's going to make sense of it in an hour or a day or even much longer.

Take some of the human-caused things that can affect global temperatures, either pushing them hotter or dialing them cooler. This is from the 2009 Climate Change Science Compendium, produced by the United Nations Environment Programme. You can find it here.

Airliner contrails and more cirrus clouds make it warmer.

More sulphates and other reflective aerosols from coal burning make it cooler.

More black soot (can also come from coal burning) makes it warmer.

The tendency of particles from fossil fuel burning to support cloud formation makes it cooler.

Mineral dust blowing up off cleared land makes it warmer.

Reduced ozone in the upper atmosphere makes it cooler.

Increased methane, such as from cows and landfills, makes it warmer.

Making the land surface more reflective, by clearing, makes it cooler.

Increased nitrogen gas from feedlots and biomass burning makes it warmer.

Increased carbon-dioxide, of course, is a big warmer.

And so forth.

Some of these things have a bigger impact on temperature; some smaller. Some last for days in the atmosphere, some centuries.

It's really complex.

On balance, the report says, the result of human activity from the year 1750 to now promotes more warming than cooling.

There are lots of natural, non-human factors that impact climate, of course. One is the sun, whose output can be calculated.

The report estimates the sun is responsible for about a quarter of the amount of climate warming that humans are responsible for in the last 250 years.

The combined total climate forcing of all calculated human impacts during the period in question was about 1.2 watts per square meter. Solar radiation, which has recovered since there was a lower than average intensity in 1750, is calculated at .3 watts per square meter.

It is painfully easy, in the face of the immense complexity, to grasp at one or two facts and draw conclusions from them, rather than taking in the whole picture.

Easy, and commonly done by folks on both sides of the climate discussion, but wrong.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

Angst and lies over climate predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 17:58:00 +0000

Mojib Latif knew that the climate change skeptics wouldn't understand what he was saying, or would misrepresent it.

Sure enough.

Latif, the German ocean circulation and climate modeling expert, recently famously announced that in the long global warming trend, there might be an upcoming limited cooling period.

Climate is cyclical, after all.

In the immediate future, he said, a powerful cool phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation, could temporarily overwhelm the larger warming trend for a few years. The rest of his commentary is important: it's that while his models suggest a possible short-term cooling trend, he fully endorses the larger view that the globe is in a long-term severe warming trend.

Nobody who hates climate change seems to have bothered to read the rest of what Latif had to say. A confident response of climate skeptics has been: See, it's cooling, so we don't have to do anything about climate.

The Vancouver Sun, citing Latif, wrongly headlined: “Scientists pull an about face on global warming.” A lot of other skeptic commentators in various media have also grabbed on to just the convenient half of Latif's comments, while ignoring the rest.

The truth, again, is that Latif, looking at the wider data, continues to be convinced about the long-term warming trend and has not, as the Sun suggested, “started batting for the other side.”

Latif told the UN World Climate Conference in Geneva: "People will say this is global warming disappearing... I am not one of the sceptics,"

The clear-eyed science writer for the New York Times, Andy Revkin, reported on the issue this past week. Revkin called Latif on the phone and asked him about the issue. He suggested that many people simply can't handle the complexity of the climate story.

“People understand what I’m saying, but then basically wind up saying, ‘We don’t believe anything,’” Latif is quoted as saying.

And this post would not be complete without noting that a number of other climate scientists disagree with Latif's short term conclusion, arguing instead that we're looking at more warming in the short term as well as the longer term.

Changing climate? What's it mean to me?

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 17:45:00 +0000

Climate change, shlimate change—what does it mean to me?

Two Hawaii projects during the next couple of months will look directly at the local impacts of climate change: The Blue Line Project and a conference on Kaua'i keyed to local impacts.

(Image: The blue represents how far water extends inland at Waikiki with a three-foot rise in sea levels. Credit: Blue Planet Foundation.)

The first, backed by the Honolulu-based Blue Planet Foundation, will encourage students from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Oct. 24 to use chalk to draw a blue line at the height of the water around Hawai'i if there's a one-meter rise in sea levels.

Schools have only a week to sign up, so if your school is interested, don't waste time. Find details of the project here at http://www.blueplanetfoundation.org/blueline/.

“We chose to illustrate the extent of flooding from a one meter rise in our sea level because that is one clear effect of climate change that could devastate many of our communities within our lifetime,” the project data sheet says.

Its goal, too, is to send a message to the United Nations climate change conference in December in Denmark.

“By having Hawaii's youth take part in the Blue Line Project, our goal is to have Hawaii's message of hope be heard all the way in Copenhagen. Hawai'i will be doing just that as an island community and in its own unique way contribute to making a difference,” said Blue Planet's Francois Rogers, Blue Line Project coordinator.

The second project , a conference from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. Nov. 21, will specifically look at climate impacts on the island of Kauai. “Global Climate Change as it will affect Kauai” is sponsored by the Surfrider Foundation, Kauai, UH Sea Grant Program and Kauai Community College.

“We will attempt to get an understanding of the cumulative effects of various aspects of climate change on the future of Kauai. Immediately after the presentations we will have a forum and speakers will answer questions from the audience and will be able to address 'What can we do about it.' Another workshop, specifically focused on mitigating climate change effects and actually slowing the rate of change, is planned for next year,” said organizer Carl Berg.

Speakers from across Hawai'i will review rainfall and drought, stream flow and groundwater, sea level rise, reef changes, and other issues. There is no fee, but registration is required. For information reach Berg at 639-2968 or cberg@pixi.com.

Mosquitoes, urban man and disease: a new look

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 17:51:00 +0000

Humans are a peripatetic bunch, and that creates real problems for controlling diseases--particularly mosquito-borne diseases like dengue.

When an infected person travels, say, from home to a workplace on the other side of the island, a mosquito feeding at the new location suddenly introduces the disease there.

(Image: The mosquito Aedes aegypti feeding. This mosquito, sometimes called the Yellow Fever Mosquito is implicated in dengue fever as well. It is a day-biting mosquito present in Hawai'i, but other mosquito species can also spread such diseases. Credit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)

“Even a short visit to an infected patch of mosquitos, say at a lunch venue or open market, may be enough to keep the virus circulating,” said University of Hawai'i researcher Durrell D. Kapan.

And when another worker gets bit, and goes to home to a different part of the island, the disease leapfrogs once more.

Researchers from the University of Hawai'i and elsewhere reviewed these problems in a paper, Man Bites Mosquito: Understanding the Contribution of Human Movement to Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics.

The authors are Kapan, of the Center for Conservation and Research Training, Pacific Biosciences Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, and mathematician Ben Adams, of the Department of Biology, Kyushu University, in Fukuoka, Japan, and the University of Bath in the United Kingdom. The paper is available at http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0006763

Dengue, also known as break-bone fever for the kind of pain it inflicts, has been a problem in Hawai'i, and is even more prevalent elsewhere in the Pacific. Between 50 million and 100 million people are infected each year.

“Even a small number of infected people who remain active can move a virus such as dengue between different parts of the community, where it will be picked up by mosquitos and, after an incubation period, be passed on to another unsuspecting passerby,” Kapan said in a University of Hawai'i news release.

So how do you deal with a leapfrogging virus in a modern commuting population?

“Our research examined whether the standard practice of eliminating mosquito vectors at residences would be sufficient to control dengue if other areas in the community still had several large patches of mosquitos that could become infected by commuters,” Kapan said.

The authors sought out the support of UH Mānoa’s Pacific Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Research Center of Biomedical Research Excellence program (http://www.hawaii.edu/pceidr/), and UH Mānoa’s National Science Foundation Integrative Graduate Research Traineeship (IGERT) in Ecology, Conservation and Pathogen Biology (http://www2.jabsom.hawaii.edu/igert/).

Their conclusion was that traditional vector control programs may not be sufficient, and new approaches are needed.

“Our primary objective with this paper is to prompt researchers, public health practitioners and others concerned with vector control to ...consider novel ways to control community transmission of vector-borne diseases that account for great morbidity and mortality worldwide,” says Kapan.

An example of the problem: “Singapore, for example, has for many years implemented a vigorous program of domestic vector source reduction and insecticide spraying in a full GIS-enabled public health protection effort. Nevertheless dengue continues to circulate and, after a brief period of respite, outbreaks are becoming increasingly severe,” their paper says.

In someways, the authors suggest, it is the humans who are the vectors, hauling the disease from one mosquito population to another.

“When someone gets infected we need to look at their recent travel patterns to figure out from which group of mosquitoes they got the disease, and to which groups they may have passed it on,” Adams said.

A hot August, on average, but not everywhere

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 19:05:00 +0000

This summer's global temperatures were warm, in spite of what you may hear on the news.

“The world’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest for any August on record, and the warmest on record averaged for any June-August,” NOAA reported this week.

(Image: Global climate anomalies for August 2009, compared to a baseline average global temperature for August from 1961-1990. Where it's blue, temperatures were cooler than normal; where red, warmer. Source: NOAA)

It's not what you may have heard, because climate isn't consistent around the globe, and in fact, this summer, it was pretty cool in a few places. Notably, central North America, Eastern Europe and the Japan area.

There has been a fair amount of press on the comparatively cool summer in much of the U.S. Mainland.

But trying to assert global conditions from regional patterns is as difficult as a blind man trying to describe an elephant when he can only touch the tail.

Other areas of the world were way hotter than usual. Australia is the prime example. But also west Greenland, Peru, western Europe.

Hawai'i did not appear to have either exceedingly hot nor exceedingly cold temperature anomalies.

But ocean temperatures globally were a full degree Fahrenheit warmer than the 20^th century average for the same time of the year, NOAA said.

And the summer warming is part of a warm trend that appears to be ready to cover the whole year, the NOAA report said: “For the year to date, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature of 58.3 degrees F tied with 2003 for the fifth-warmest January-August period on record. This value is 0.99 degree F above the 20th century average.”

Do these data points prove anything with regard to the larger issue of climate change? No. It's a warm year. Doesn't prove anything by itself, although as part of a larger trend, it can suggest things. But that's another story for another time.

Black rats: the bad, and, oddly, the good.

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 18:22:00 +0000

Tree climbing, omniverous and fast-reproducing black rats are among the scourges of the Hawaiian natural landscape.

They destroy nesting native birds and their eggs, they eat native plant seedlings, they can eat a native loulu palm's entire season's production of seeds—and there's evidence that when they are removed, much of the native habitat can recover.

(Image: We couldn't quickly put our hands on a black rat photo. This is Hawai'i's first rat, the Pacific or Polynesian rat, which arrived with Polynesian settlers. Credit: New Zealand government.)

But there's another side to this story. Rats, though invasive themselves, can also keep invasive species at bay—and in some conditions, removing rats can create new problems.

University of Hawai'i zoologist Wallace M. Meyer III and University of Hawai'i botanist Aaron B. Shiels review some of the complicated issues in a new paper in Pacific Science, “Black Rat (Rattus rattus) Predation on Nonindigenous Snails in Hawai‘i: Complex Management Implications.” (Pacific Science (2009), vol. 63, no. 3:339–347: 2009 by University of Hawai‘i Press)

The paper, as its title suggests, is focused on snails.

Black rats are considered a major threat to Hawai'i's gorgeous native tree snails, which were once common but are now fadingly rare, and many species are extinct.

But rats also eat the cannibal snail, Euglandina rosea, which also preys on the tree snails. Furthermore, they eat the common garden and forest pest, the giant African snail, Achatina fulica. In tests conducted by the authors, black rats chowed down aggressively on both species. Even quite large snails have their shells readily crushed by rats.

What does this mean for rat control as a conservation tool? It means it ain't simple.

“We hypothesize that reduction or eradication of R. rattus populations may cause an ecological release of some nonindigenous snail species where these groups coexist. As such, effective restoration for native snails and plants may not be realized after R. rattus removal in forest ecosystems as a consequence of the complex interactions that currently exist among rats, nonindigenous snails, and the remaining food web,” the authors write

What remains clear is that rats—not only the black rat, but also the Pacific or Polynesian rat and the Norwegian rat—have had significant impacts on the Hawaiian natural environment.

“Introductions of rats and terrestrial snails have been implicated in the decline of native Hawaiian flora and fauna. All three rat species were introduced to the Hawaiian Islands by people and are among the most noxious invasive species on islands worldwide,” the authors write.

But at this point, in the case of native tree snails, it is not clear whether the rat or the cannibal snail is the greater threat.

“It is unknown if E. rosea predation on other mollusk species would equal or exceed that of R. rattus,” the authors write.

So the research isn't saying rat control is a bad thing. It's urging caution, and as so many scientific papers do, it argues for more research.

Adventurers! Discovery is still out there.

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 19:49:00 +0000

There was a time when discovery was the hallmark of great science.

Discovering continents, lost islands, and new species.

Today, with the the world pretty well mapped and a dwindling of new species to find, great science has moved on to less Indiana Jones-like fields such as gene expression and conservation.

But there are still finds to be made.

(Image: A new species of butterfly fish, found during deep dives in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. Credit: Yannis Papastamatiou/NOAA .)

Simply find a place where nobody's looked, and you're likely to find wonderful things.

In a remote New Guinea jungle recently, scientists found several new species of animals, including a giant long-haired rat. It was found at Mount Bosavi, and is temporarily being called the Bosavi Woolly Rat. More here.

And in Hawaiian waters, intrepid divers using mixed-gas tanks dove to previously unexplored depths in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument and found, surprise!, a bunch of new species of fish.

Their project, Deep Reef 2009, took scientists more than 200 feet down—places deeper than divers normally go, yet shallower than submersibles are normally tasked.

And, of course, there was cool stuff. Here is the blog produced during that trip last month.

In addition to several species of fish that were new to science, the researchers found beds of algae filled with numerous young fishes, and they concluded that the deep water habitats may serve as nurseries that replenish shallower water fish populations.

Neat stuff. New stuff.

For the adventurers among us, discoveries are still out there.

Black holes in pre-school days: Discovery surprises

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 18:35:00 +0000

Deep in space, and so far away that our view of it is 12.8 billion years old, there is a hole, a black hole, within a distant galaxy.

That's back when the universe was just a youngster. In human years, if the universe were 60 now, looking at that galaxy is like looking at it when it was still in pre-school.

(Image: False-color image of the QSO (CFHQSJ2329-0301), the most distant black hole currently known. In addition to the bright central black hole (white), the image shows the surrounding host galaxy (red). Credit: Tomotsugu Goto, University of Hawaii)

The black hole and its galaxy were discovered by University of Hawai'i astronomer Tomotsugu Goto

It's a big black hole, and the most distant black holes ever seen. It is classified as a supermassive black hole—you'd need to stuff a billion of our suns into it to match the amount of matter it contains.

And it's in a galaxy about the size of our own Milky Way.

Both the black hole's size and the galaxy's size—at a time when the universe was so young, are notable, Goto said.

“It is surprising that such a giant galaxy existed when the Universe was only one-sixteenth of its present age, and that it hosted a black hole one billion times more massive than the sun. The galaxy and black hole must have formed very rapidly in the early universe,” he said.

What's also surprising is that Goto was able to see the galaxy at all.

If someone shines a spotlight on you on a dark night, you see the light but you normally can't see the person behind it. Same problem with galaxies and black holes. While the black hole doesn't emit light, there's a lot of light around it, emitted as light by matter that is accelerating as it is sucked into the black hole. It can be so bright that the galaxy disappears from view.

Goto and his team used sophisticated charge-coupled device (CCD) electronic technology, attached to the Subprime-Cam camera on Mauna Kea's Subaru telescope, to separate the black hole from the galaxy.

“The improved sensitivity of the new CCDs has brought an exciting discovery as its very first result,” said Satoshi Miyazaki of the National Astronomy Observatory of Japan, who led the team developing the new CCDs.

This research will be published in the online version of the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society this month. The paper is available at http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/~tomo /QSOhost/QSOhost_v7.pdf.

Recycling electronics: (keep it) Out Of Africa.

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 21:32:00 +0000

Folks on Kaua'i will be dropping off their old electronics for recycling during this Friday and Saturday, and the good news is that none of it will end up on some village in Africa.

There is, of course, a vast difference between simply collecting stuff for recycling and actually recycling it.

One of the open secrets about the whole recycling ethic is that large amounts of stuff never is recycled.

Some “recyclables” are simply stockpiled awaiting some deus ex machina miracle to make their recycling possible or profitable.

And large other amounts are simply dumped, often, as with some electronics, in third-world countries that reap the toxic benefits of our feel-good recycling efforts.

See this article on the e-waste trade in Africa. And this.

The African paradigm describes a system in which a little of the material is indeed recycled, but much is left to create toxic dumps.

This has gotten to be such a scandal, that some recyclers use it as a sales tool. They specifically advertise that they don't ship stuff to Africa. Like this.

That said, much of Hawai'i's unwanted electronics does appear to be properly recycled. The next major electronics recycling program in the Islands is at the Vidinha Stadium parking lot on Kauai from 8 to 4 p.m. Friday (Sept. 4, 2009) for business and Saturday (Sept. 5) for residents.

It is being run for the county by Recycle Hawai'i, a Big Island-based non-profit. Recycle Hawai'i, in turn, ships its electronic recyclables to a California firm, E-World Recyclers .

E-World says nothing but compostable material like wood goes into landfills.

Here's the list of stuff the Kauai electronics recyling program will take: Computer towers, tvs, copiers, monitors, hubs, fax machines, combination units, cell phones, keyboards, phones, scanners, CD-ROM drives, laptops, mice, stereo components, DVD drives, printers, backup batteries, plasma screens, typewriters, speakers, VCR players, electronic gaming units, cameras, radios, camcorders.

They don't want packing supplies, toner cartridges or appliances. For more information on the Kauai program call County Recycling Office for further information at 241-4841.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

Tired of hearing about swine flu? The other flu, avian, can be much worse

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 17:42:00 +0000

The threat of swine H1N1 flu is expected to increase as we move into flu season later this year, but swine flu while readily transmitted, doesn't make most people too sick.

The opposite appears to be true with another virus: avian H5N1, which isn't transmitted too readily to humans, but is fatal it 60 percent of the people who get it.

It's not yet in the United States, but has been identified in much of the rest of the world. And over time, it is adopting more and more hosts. If it changes to readily pass from human to human, it could be a far worse epidemic than swine.

Here are some basic facts, from the Centers for Disease Control. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm.

Most people who get this avian flu get it from poultry—often ducks and geese, but also swans and chickens. It rarely is transmitted human to human in its current form.

Few humans have immunity to it.

“If H5N1 viruses gain the ability for efficient and sustained transmission among humans, an influenza pandemic could result, with potentially high rates of illness and death worldwide,” CDC says.

The strain is resistant to two of the four major antiviral drugs. There are no vaccines.

It has shown up in cats, dogs and zoo animals, suggesting it is gaining a wider range of hosts. “Avian influenza A (H5N1) virus strains that emerged in Asia in 2003 continue to evolve and may adapt so that other mammals may be susceptible to infection as well.”

One caution for travelers, particularly in Asia: Stay out of poultry markets.

This flu was first identified in geese in China's Guangdong Province in 1996. The first human cases appeared in Hong Kong the next year.

In 2003, zoo leopards and tigers in Thailand died after being fed chickens. The next year, a Thailand cat got it after eating a pigeon. The disease has since been identified in Vietnam, Korea, Japan, Cambodia. Malaysia, Laos.

It was found in Russia, Mongolia and Kazakhstan in migratory birds in 2005, and then began moving into Europe, often in migratory birds like ducks and swans.

Cases in humans remain fairly rare, but there are intriguing family clusters, in which multiple members of the same family get the disease. Are they getting it from each other? Is it because of a genetic predisposition to infectability? That's not yet clear.

As of August 31, 2009, the World Health Organization reported 440 cases globally, of which 262 were fatal. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2009_08_31/en/index.html

Most of the deaths have been in Indonesia and Vietnam, but Egypt, Thailand and China are also hot spots.

Hilda jogs south, breathe easier

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:47:00 +0000

Tropical Storm Hilda jogged southward, away from the Islands, in the last 24 hours, and although it is strengthening, even the most widely diverging forecasts keep it away from the Islands.

(Image: The track of Tropical Storm Hilda in recent days shows the jog to the south in recent hours. The Big Island is displayed in upper left. Sourced: NOAA.)

Although the storm, now less than 500 miles from Hilo, is expected to take a slightly northward curve starting tomorrow, Thursday, it is now likely far enough south that the National Weather Service figures it will remain well away from the Islands.

Translation: We may get some south swell, but little wind from Hilda.

The current route takes it across Johnston Atoll on Monday, but forecasts now don't anticipate Hilda will ever reach hurricane strength. Johnston, now uninhabited, should not be endangered by the storm.

That's still not to say Hilda couldn't change direction and bite us. Hurricane Iwa in 1982 swept northward from the southwest to slam Kaua'i.

But forecasters don't anticipate that will happen.

In what is turning out to be a very active hurricane season, Hawai'i may dodge another bullet.

Hurricane-to-be Hilda and 'opihi picking: Don't turn your back

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 19:44:00 +0000

Hawaii media cheerily announced this morning that Hurricane-to-be Hilda is unlikely to impact the Hawaiian Islands.

That, of course, is so misleading that it's scary.

(Image: The National Weather Service's Mariner's 1-2-3 rule for Tropical Storm Hilda. Source: NOAA.)

First, the Islands certainly won't avoid pounding hurricane-generated surf on southern shores. Might not be as big as surf from some other hurricanes, but there will be surf.

Second, there is a chance the Islands will feel some wind if the the storm center tracks along the northern edge of its forecast path.

Hurricanes are often depicted as dots on a map, representing the center of the storm.

But these cyclones are major features on the surface of the planet, hundreds of miles wide, spreading swaths of destruction along their paths. And in the Northern Hemisphere (that's us) the winds are stronger and extend farther out on the right side of their path—in the case of Hilda, the northern side.

The National Weather Service's favored estimate has its center passing several hundred miles to the south of the main Hawaiian Islands. If it stays down there, there will be some accuracy to the Star-Bulletin's “at this point it is not expected to have much impact on Hawaii’s weather,” and The Advertiser's “Isles unlikely to feel Hilda's passing.”

The news reports might be right, but would you bet your house on that?

This is a strengthening tropical cyclone, running parallel to the island chain, at this writing about 525 miles from Hilo, and moving at more than 200 miles a day. Right now, tropical storm force winds cover a swath 150 miles wide, and that will increase as it reaches hurricane strength sometime Thursday.

Some sailors—cautious for good reason; their lives and their vessels are at risk—use what's called the Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule. They take the forecast storm center positions and apply a 100-mile circle of possible error at 24 hours out, then 200 miles at 48 hours, and 300 miles at 72 hours. Then they push the circles farther to reflect how far tropical storm force winds extend. Tropical storm winds are 39 miles an hour and more.

If you apply the Mariner's 1-2-3 rule to Hilda, the southern Big Island is within the zone. See the image above.

Media reports unfortunately often shuttle between panic and calming reassurance. The best indications are that Tropical Storm Hilda will remain far enough south to have minimal impacts, but Hawai'i residents need to heed the lesson of 'opihi pickers—go about your business, but don't turn your back to the ocean.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

H1N1 Swine Flu hops to turkeys; threat not clear

noreply@blogger.com (Jan T) — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 19:58:00 +0000

Just when you thought it was safe to get a little sniffle, the swine flu virus has taken another potentially scary turn.

This bug known as H1N1, which has pieces of human, bird and pig flu in its genetic makeup, and which jumped earlier this year from hogs to humans, has now jumped again into birds.

In this case turkeys—specifically turkeys at a commercial turkey operation in Chile.

(Image: A Centers for Disease Control map shows Hawai'i has "regional" H1N1 flu, along with the southwestern states and the southeast. Only Alaska and Maine, with "widespread" flu, rank higher. Credit: CDC.)

Just what this means is not yet clear, and it might not be trouble, but it could be a step toward something bad. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are monitoring.

Meanwhile, the swine flu virus we're familiar with has continued to spread. It is in all parts of the United States, and 522 people have died—mostly people with other underlying health issues that became fatal when the flu virus was added to them.

This flu has comparatively mild symptoms, but it spreads more readily than normal seasonal flu. One of its interesting characteristics is that it is still around in August, when flu is comparatively rare.

“Most state health officials are reporting local or sporadic influenza activity. Two states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. Any reports of widespread influenza activity in August are very unusual,” says the CDC.

Most of the people who catch the flu tend to be younger, suggesting some previous flu bug provided older humans with some level of resistance. And most people who do get the flu are over it in a week.

In the swine-to-turkey story, the infected turkeys don't suffer serious symptoms, either.

International health officials can't seem to decide whether this transmittal to birds is curious or ominous. In the reporting, you get a little of both.

There are a few citations that express fear for a “superflu” which spreads as easily as H1N1 swine flu, but is also more frequently fatal. But while that has always been a possibility, there is no evidence that there's a new bug like that now.

An Associated Press story included this cautious note: "What the turkeys have is the human virus — there is no mutation at all," Deputy Health Minister Jeannette Vega told Chile's Radio Cooperativa on Friday.