Rambling Sports

2026 Fantasy Football - Preseason ROOC Ranks

2026-08-25T13:28:05.815-05:00

One more set of rookie ranks as we head into the home stretch before the season starts just to recalibrate before the season.

A few things to start ROOC is my attempt to quantify rookie talent adjusted for opportunity, and draft slot. I got two sets of ROOC rankings (2QB and Standard) and then my own two sets of rankings to go along with it. Now let’s go over some components… Draft Grade (DrGr) – the grade I gave the player during the draft. Pick Grade (PkGr) – Grade I gave the pick, use the associated % in the formula. Pick – Pick used on player in the draft, correlates pretty well with opportunity. Pick AV (PkAV) – The approximate value of the draft pick. Now/EOS/Y3 – What I predict the roster spot will be for that player / where on the depth chart they currently are, Now/End of Season/ Year 3. ROOC2QB/ROOC – Numerical representation of value based on those inputs.

Player	Pos	Tm	Player Grade	Pick Grade	Pick	Pick AV	Adj. AV	2QB Rank	ROOC 2QB	Stand. Rank	ROOC	Adj AV Rank
Fernando Mendoza	QB	LVR	6.2	A-	1	34.6	14.8	1	1	6	6	1
Jeremiyah Love	RB	ARI	7.3	C+	3	27.6	11.9	2	3	1	2	3
Carnell Tate	WR	TEN	7.1	B+	4	25.8	12.3	3	2	2	1	2
Jordyn Tyson	WR	NO	6.8	A-	8	21.4	11.1	4	4	3	3	4
Makai Lemon	WR	PHI	6.8	A	20	15.5	9.5	5	5	4	4	5
KC Concepcion	WR	CLE	6.5	A	24	14.4	9.0	6	6	5	5	7
Ty Simpson	QB	LAR	5.7	C-	13	18.3	8.0	7	7	12	23	9
Omar Cooper Jr	WR	NYJ	6.3	A-	30	12.9	8.2	8	8	7	7	8
Denzel Boston	WR	CLE	6.2	A	39	11.3	7.8	9	9	8	8	10
Jadarian Price	RB	SEA	6.1	F	32	12.5	6.1	10	10	9	9	17
Kenyon Sadiq	TE	NYJ	7.2	C+	16	16.9	9.1	11	16	10	15	6
De'Zhaun Stribling	WR	SF	5.6	C+	33	12.3	6.9	12	11	11	10	14
Chris Bell	WR	MIA	6.0	A+	94	5.7	5.9	13	13	13	12	21
Germie Bernard	WR	PIT	6.1	A	47	10.1	7.3	14	12	14	11	12
Malachi Fields	WR	NYG	5.9	A+	74	7.2	6.3	15	15	15	14	16
Ted Hurst	WR	TB	6.0	A+	84	6.4	6.1	16	14	16	13	18
Jonah Coleman	RB	DEN	5.7	C+	108	4.8	5.0	17	18	17	17	32
Skyler Bell	WR	BUF	6.1	A+	125	3.9	5.4	18	26	18	22	26
Eli Stowers	TE	PHI	7.0	A+	54	9.2	7.7	19	29	19	26	11
Bryce Lance	WR	NO	5.8	A+	136	3.3	5.0	20	28	20	25	35
Elijah Sarratt	WR	BAL	5.7	A+	115	4.4	5.3	21	32	21	28	28
Carson Beck	QB	ARI	4.6	C	65	8.0	5.0	22	22	30	44	33
Cade Klubnik	QB	NYJ	4.8	B+	110	4.7	4.6	23	19	31	37	40
Emmett Johnson	RB	KC	5.9	A	161	2.2	4.7	24	25	22	21	39
Nicholas Singleton	RB	TEN	5.8	A-	165	2.1	4.5	25	27	23	24	41
Kaytron Allen	RB	WAS	5.5	A-	187	1.3	4.1	26	31	24	27	46
Mike Washington Jr	RB	LVR	5.7	B+	122	4.0	5.0	27	17	25	16	34
Eli Raridon	TE	NE	6.1	A-	95	5.6	5.8	28	33	26	29	23
Kaelon Black	RB	SF	5.4	D	90	5.9	4.8	29	21	27	19	38
Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	5.6	B+	71	7.5	6.0	30	23	28	20	20
Zachariah Branch	WR	ATL	5.5	A-	79	6.8	5.8	31	20	29	18	24
Drew Allar	QB	PIT	5.1	A-	76	7.0	5.6	32	24	44	53	25
Cole Payton	QB	PHI	5.4	A+	178	1.6	4.1	33	30	45	50	45
Deion Burks	WR	IND	5.6	A+	254	0.1	3.8	34	51	32	45	52
Demond Claiborne	RB	MIN	5.6	A-	198	0.9	4.0	35	35	33	31	48
Max Klare	TE	LAR	6.7	A-	61	8.4	7.1	36	34	34	30	13
Ja'Kobi Lane	WR	BAL	5.0	C	80	6.7	5.0	37	36	35	32	36
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	3.9	D	75	7.1	4.0	38	56	36	48	47
Zavion Thomas	WR	CHI	4.8	D+	89	6.0	4.5	39	61	37	54	42
Cyrus Allen	WR	KC	5.1	A+	176	1.7	4.0	40	65	38	58	49
Sam Roush	TE	CHI	6.4	A-	69	7.6	6.6	41	38	39	33	15
Brenen Thompson	WR	LAC	5.5	A-	105	5.0	5.2	42	42	40	38	29
Garrett Nussmeier	QB	KC	5.4	A+	249	0.1	3.7	43	37	51	57	56
Taylen Green	QB	CLE	4.1	B-	182	1.5	3.1	44	50	52	77	101
Seth McGowan	RB	IND	5.2	B	237	0.1	3.5	45	39	43	34	71
Eli Heidenreich	RB	PIT	5.2	B	230	0.1	3.5	46	48	41	43	71
Chris Brazzell II	WR	CAR	5.4	B-	83	6.5	5.4	47	44	42	40	27
Justin Joly	TE	DEN	5.9	A+	152	2.6	4.8	48	45	46	41	37
Oscar Delp	TE	NO	6.1	B-	73	7.3	6.0	49	43	47	39	19
Matthew Hibner	TE	BAL	5.2	C+	133	3.5	4.4	50	58	48	49	43
Jamal Haynes	RB	CIN	5.3	A+	UDFA	0.1	3.6	51	52	49	46	61
Marlin Klein	TE	HOU	5.5	F	59	8.6	5.1	52	46	50	42	31
Will Kacmarek	TE	MIA	5.5	C	87	6.2	5.2	53	41	53	36	30
Nate Boerkircher	TE	JAX	5.9	D+	56	9.0	5.9	54	40	54	35	22
Evan Svoboda	TE	LAC	5.3	A+	UDFA	0.1	3.6	55	67	55	59	61
Jam Miller	RB	NE	4.2	C	245	0.1	2.8	56	59	56	51	140
Chip Treyanum	RB	NYJ	5.1	A+	UDFA	0.1	3.5	57	55	57	47	74
Tanner Koziol	TE	JAX	5.3	B+	164	2.1	4.2	58	68	58	60	44
Kevin Coleman Jr	WR	MIA	4.8	B+	177	1.6	3.7	59	89	59	83	55
Jack Strand	QB	ATL	4.5	A+	UDFA	0.1	3.0	60	53	61	80	111
Dallen Bentley	TE	DEN	5.8	A+	256	0.1	3.9	61	74	61	65	50
Seydou Traore	TE	MIA	5.1	C+	180	1.5	3.8	61	70	61	62	51
Carsen Ryan	TE	CLE	5.6	A+	248	0.1	3.8	61	73	61	64	52
Josh Cuevas	TE	BAL	4.9	C	173	1.8	3.7	61	86	61	78	54
Michael Trigg	TE	DAL	5.4	A+	UDFA	0.1	3.7	61	71	60	63	56
Jaren Kanak	TE	TEN	5.4	A+	225	0.1	3.7	61	77	61	68	56
DT Sheffield	WR	NYJ	5.4	A+	UDFA	0.1	3.7	61	123	61	122	56
Anthony Smith	WR	DAL	5.3	A+	218	0.3	3.7	61	96	61	90	60
Robert Henry Jr	RB	WAS	5.3	A+	UDFA	0.1	3.6	61	60	61	52	61
Adam Randall	RB	BAL	4.6	D	174	1.7	3.4	61	63	61	56	77
Anderson Castle	RB	IND	4.8	A+	UDFA	0.1	3.2	61	62	61	55	92
Haynes King	QB	CAR	4.6	A+	UDFA	0.1	3.1	61	49	61	72	102
Joe Fagnano	QB	BAL	4.3	A+	UDFA	0.1	2.9	61	47	61	67	128
Luke Altmyer	QB	DET	4.1	A+	UDFA	0.1	2.8	61	54	61	76	142
Behren Morton	QB	NE	4.0	B	234	0.1	2.7	61	57	61	79	156

2026 Fantasy Football - Kickers & Defenses

2026-08-25T09:07:03.023-05:00

As has been my tradition the last few years this is my one and only defense and kicker rankings as both positions have an inherently high amount of variance and randomness.

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos ADP	Diff
DEF1	Broncos	DEN	3	-2
DEF2	Texans	HOU	1	1
DEF3	Seahawks	SEA	4	-1
DEF4	Eagles	PHI	5	-1
DEF5	Rams	LAR	2	3
DEF6	Chargers	LAC	8	-2
DEF7	Ravens	BAL	11	-4
DEF8	Giants	NYG	21	-13
DEF9	Steelers	PIT	7	2
DEF10	Browns	CLE	12	-2
DEF11	Packers	GB	13	-2
DEF12	Patriots	NE	6	6
DEF13	Jaguars	JAX	10	3
DEF14	Chiefs	KC	20	-6
DEF15	Cowboys	DAL	15	0
DEF16	Vikings	MIN	9	7
DEF17	49ers	SF	18	-1
DEF18	Buccaneers	TB	25	-7
DEF19	Bears	CHI	14	5
DEF20	Titans	TEN	26	-6
DEF21	Commanders	WAS	29	-8
DEF22	Bills	BUF	17	5
DEF23	Saints	NO	22	1
DEF24	Falcons	ATL	19	5
DEF25	Colts	IND	23	2
DEF26	Panthers	CAR	24	2
DEF27	Bengals	CIN	28	-1
DEF28	Lions	DET	16	12
DEF29	Raiders	LVR	27	2
DEF30	Jets	NYJ	31	-1
DEF31	Cardinals	ARI	32	-1
DEF32	Dolphins	MIA	30	2

Let’s look at our a few of the bigger differences:
Giants (8 vs 21) – The pass rush should be extremely productive

Patriots (12 vs 6) – The Pats defense was the real benefactor of their paper thin schedule and I think we see a solid step back from them this year.

Chiefs (14 vs 20) - I trust Spags but they lost a lot and this may be a transition year for the defensive talent.

Vikings (16 vs 9) – I expect them to regress but they were one of my bigger misses last year so…

Lions (28 vs 16) – They had little secondary coming into the year and losing Arnold means a bad situation is even worse. Hutchinson is real good though.

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos ADP	Diff
K1	Brandon Aubrey	DAL	1	0
K2	Cameron Dicker	LAC	2	0
K3	Cam Little	JAX	5	-2
K4	Evan McPherson	CIN	20	-16
K5	Jake Elliott	PHI	18	-13
K6	Jason Myers	SEA	4	2
K7	Chase McLaughlin	TB	15	-8
K8	Wil Lutz	DEN	19	-11
K9	Nick Folk	ATL	25	-16
K10	Jake Bates	DET	7	3
K11	Tyler Bass	BUF	21	-10
K12	Chris Boswell	PIT	12	0
K13	Harrison Butker	KC	10	3
K14	Tyler Loop	BAL	9	5
K15	Joey Slye	TEN	25	-10
K16	Chad Ryland	ARI	25	-9
K17	Andy Borregales	NE	11	6
K18	Will Reichard	MIN	13	5
K19	Ka'imi Fairbairn	HOU	3	16
K20	Jake Moody	WAS	25	-5
K21	Eddy Pineiro	SF	6	15
K22	Trey Smack	GB	25	-3
K23	Andre Szmyt	CLE	25	-2
K24	Jason Sanders	NYJ	25	-1
K25	Cairo Santos	CHI	17	8
K26	Blake Grupe	IND	23	3
K27	Riley Patterson	MIA	25	2
K28	Charlie Smyth	NO	25	3
K29	Harrison Mevis	LAR	8	21
K30	Matt Gay	LVR	22	8
K31	Dominic Zvada	NYG	25	6
K32	Ryan Fitzgerald	CAR	25	7
K33	Ben Sauls	NYG	25	8
K34	Kansei Matsuzawa	LVR	25	9
K35	Tanner Brown	NO	25	10
K36	Spencer Shrader	IND	25	11
K37	Cade York	NYJ	25	12
K38	Drew Stevens	WAS	25	13
K39	Chris Freeman	HOU	25	14
K40	Laith Marjan	PIT	25	15
K41	BT Potter	TB	25	16

2026 Fantasy Football - 1st Ranks - Tight Ends

2026-08-24T18:55:19.381-05:00

Tight end is healing after a number of seasons where it seemed like Kelce and a couple others were the only viable fantasy TEs and the rest were a rotating crap shoot we now have a very promising group of young tight ends, and a league where 2 and 3 tight end sets are becoming the new norm.

Tier 1 (1-3) – Elite Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
TE1	Brock Bowers	LVR	139	1092	8	260	1	0	1	1	0
TE2	Trey McBride	ARI	143	1007	8	256	2	0	2	2	0
TE3	Colston Loveland	CHI	98	748	7	187	3	0	3	3	0

Nothing to see here, only thing I think we can have a conversation about is whether Loveland is TE2 or in Tier 2.

Tier 2 (4-12) – Very Good Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
TE4	Tyler Warren	IND	117	818	6	197	4	0	4	4	0
TE5	Tucker Kraft	GB	92	813	8	197	5	0	5	6	0
TE6	Kyle Pitts Sr	ATL	110	846	4	176	8	-2	7	7	-1
TE7	Harold Fannin Jr	CLE	105	754	6	181	7	0	9	5	-2
TE8	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	68	517	4	125	12	-4	15	13	-7
TE9	Sam LaPorta	DET	57	450	6	123	6	3	10	8	-1
TE10	Oronde Gadsden	LAC	105	880	6	198	20	-10	12	16	-2
TE11	George Kittle	SF	83	714	5	163	9	2	6	9	5
TE12	Jake Ferguson	DAL	97	679	6	175	13	-1	11	11	1

I’m very high on Gadsden, giving McDaniel a TE that moves like Gadsden could be an absolute menace. I also continue you belief in Kincaid who had a fantastic target share but just had trouble connecting with Allen last year.

Tier 3 (13-25) – Good Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
TE13	Dallas Goedert	PHI	77	612	6	154	14	-1	19	14	-6
TE14	Travis Kelce	KC	99	812	5	182	10	4	8	10	6
TE15	AJ Barner	SEA	77	555	8	163	25	-10	21	24	-6
TE16	TJ Hockenson	MIN	80	563	4	136	21	-5	16	22	0
TE17	Isaiah Likely	NYG	88	652	6	163	11	6	14	12	3
TE18	Dalton Schultz	HOU	103	748	4	171	23	-5	22	23	-4
TE19	Mark Andrews	BAL	89	725	6	170	15	4	13	15	6
TE20	Chig Okonkwo	WAS	84	617	6	158	17	3	20	21	0
TE21	Brenton Strange	JAX	57	426	3	102	18	3	17	20	4
TE22	Gunnar Helm	TEN	75	466	5	137	28	-6	25	27	-3
TE23	Colby Parkinson	LAR	61	443	4	113	31	-8	18	32	5
TE24	Hunter Henry	NE	97	430	6	146	19	5	23	19	1
TE25	Kenyon Sadiq	NYJ	46	329	3	83	22	3	24	17	1

Barner is heading into year 3, he’s increased his targets from 38 to 68, and yards per target from 8.2 to 10 in his first two seasons. He’s a fantastic safety outlet and in the running for the 2^nd or 3^rd receiving option in an offense we want shares in. Likely might be the 2^nd or 3^rd option in his own offense but I’m not particularly high on Dart and not sure what this offense is going to be. Helm had a solid rookie year and I expect him and the offense to mature into something very useful this year. Parkinson is still the listed starter in LA with the aging Higbee, 2^nd year Ferguson, and Klare behind him. With the Rams leading the league in 2 and 3 tight end sets he’s still going to get plenty of snaps even if he regresses some this year.

Tier 4 (26-41) – Last of The Starters and Useful 2s Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
TE26	Juwan Johnson	NO	85	641	6	156	16	10	27	18	-1
TE27	Pat Freiermuth	PIT	68	514	5	131	27	0	32	26	-5
TE28	Cade Otton	TB	71	499	6	135	29	-1	28	29	0
TE29	Greg Dulcich	MIA	84	681	2	137	26	3	31	31	-2
TE30	Terrance Ferguson	LAR	49	404	6	97	24	6	36	30	-6
TE31	Mason Taylor	NYJ	48	350	3	86	38	-7	43	37	-12
TE32	Eli Raridon	NE	42	343	3	82	42	-10	33	41	-1
TE33	Elijah Arroyo	SEA	41	291	2	62	85	-52	29	42	4
TE34	Ja'Tavion Sanders	CAR	32	207	2	59	85	-51	30	42	4
TE35	Theo Johnson	NYG	53	372	2	83	39	-4	44	39	-9
TE36	Dawson Knox	BUF	52	390	2	85	85	-49	41	42	-5
TE37	Mike Gesicki	CIN	41	299	2	68	34	3	53	34	-16
TE38	Cole Kmet	CHI	53	373	3	93	85	-47	45	42	-7
TE39	Michael Mayer	LVR	45	297	1	67	40	-1	34	38	5
TE40	Evan Engram	DEN	32	209	2	54	33	7	26	35	14
TE41	Jake Tonges	SF	28	204	2	52	32	9	42	33	-1

I’m not sure why I’m so low on Johnson and probably need to bump him up especially with Tyson missing time. Ferguson is getting buzz as a potential 3^rd receiving option on the Rams offense, his depth chart positioning means we should temper our excitement a bit but I’m more than ready to continue bumping him up my rankings. Taylor is the starter, had a productive rookie year all things considered with the Jets offense means I think him and Sadiq could both be useful options. New England could still use receiving options and Raridon is a classic move tight end. Henry is solid as they come but Raridon could add another dynamic element to the Pats offense. Arroyo should continue to expand his receiving repitoire in year 2 and at least have a role as a weapon. Sanders should have chance to become the #1 in Carolina but the addition of Waller muddies the waters unnecessarily. Knox and Kmet will be involved in their respective offenses despite our protestations. If Kittle falls or falters due to injury Tonges is a more than capable backup.

Tier 5 (42-55) Lottery Tickets Tier & Tier 6 (56-78) Deep Sleepers Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Tier	Pos ADP	Diff	1st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
TE42	Jackson Hawes	BUF	19	163	1	38	5	85	-43	73	42	-31
TE43	Josh Oliver	MIN	19	132	2	38	5	46	-3	67	42	-24
TE44	Darnell Washington	PIT	53	415	2	92	5	44	0	52	36	-8
TE45	Brock Wright	DET	20	142	2	43	5	85	-40	39	42	6
TE46	Adam Trautman	DEN	64	450	3	108	5	85	-39	40	42	6
TE47	Eli Stowers	PHI	44	336	3	82	5	35	12	37	28	10
TE48	Noah Gray	KC	48	363	1	77	5	85	-37	38	42	10
TE49	Elijah Higgins	ARI	34	246	1	59	5	85	-36	55	42	-6
TE50	Tommy Tremble	CAR	37	230	2	59	5	85	-35	50	42	0
TE51	Justin Joly	DEN	32	227	2	56	5	85	-34	74	42	-23
TE52	Durham Smythe	BAL	49	374	1	79	5	85	-33	71	42	-19
TE53	Drew Sample	CIN	41	272	1	68	5	85	-32	72	42	-19
TE54	Mitchell Evans	CAR	18	118	1	35	5	85	-31	66	42	-12
TE55	Josh Whyle	GB	26	185	1	46	5	85	-30	57	42	-2
TE56	Erick All Jr	CIN	21	150	0	34	6	45	11	78	42	-22
TE57	Tyler Higbee	LAR	30	218	2	54	6	85	-28	65	42	-8
TE58	John Bates	WAS	22	156	1	37	6	85	-27	68	42	-10
TE59	Austin Hooper	ATL	18	135	1	32	6	85	-26	63	42	-4
TE60	Ben Sims	MIA	2	14	0	3	6	85	-25	104	42	-44
TE61	Brevyn Spann-Ford	DAL	18	124	1	28	6	85	-24	51	42	10
TE62	Eric Saubert	SEA	14	88	1	21	6	85	-23	69	42	-7
TE63	Charlie Kolar	LAC	14	118	1	30	6	37	26	86	42	-23
TE64	Daniel Bellinger	TEN	38	277	1	68	6	85	-21	48	42	16
TE65	Marlin Klein	HOU	14	100	1	26	6	85	-20	56	42	9
TE66	Noah Fant	NO	14	107	1	24	6	47	19	54	42	12
TE67	Foster Moreau	HOU	14	111	1	28	6	85	-18	47	42	20
TE68	Mo Alie-Cox	IND	19	137	1	32	6	85	-17	49	42	19
TE69	Blake Whiteheart	CLE	26	133	1	33	6	85	-16	93	42	-24
TE70	Will Kacmarek	MIA	24	194	1	42	6	85	-15	84	42	-14
TE71	Oscar Delp	NO	9	65	1	17	6	85	-14	88	42	-17
TE72	Ian Thomas	LVR	13	82	0	19	6	85	-13	75	42	-3
TE73	Ben Sinnott	WAS	14	106	1	29	6	85	-12	76	42	-3
TE74	Luke Musgrave	GB	18	139	0	29	6	85	-11	90	42	-16
TE75	Seydou Traore	MIA	12	95	0	18	7	85	-10	79	42	-4
TE76	Matt Hibner	BAL	19	162	1	35	6	85	-9	77	42	-1
TE77	Nate Boerkircher	JAX	20	140	1	36	6	85	-8	91	42	-14
TE78	Tanner Koziol	JAX	14	93	1	25	6	85	-7	116	42	-38

2026 Fantasy Football - 1st Ranks - Wide Receivers

2026-08-24T11:25:51.976-05:00

Wide Receiver is absolutely stacked with 15 players in my top 2 tiers and 52 rounding out the top 4. The league shifting a bit more towards bigger lineups and slightly more rushing means the latter receivers are a bit more of crapshoot but all in the level of talent in the league at wide receiver is patently ridiculous.

Tier 1 (1-6) – Elite Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
WR1	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	177	1443	12	339	1	0	1	1	0
WR2	Puka Nacua	LAR	167	1427	8	312	2	0	3	2	-1
WR3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	170	1357	10	321	4	-1	6	4	-3
WR4	Justin Jefferson	MIN	147	1228	8	269	5	-1	5	5	-1
WR5	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	138	1117	8	258	3	2	2	3	3
WR6	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	132	1081	12	270	6	0	4	6	2

No big surprises here, I think you could convince me it should be a tier of 2 and a tier of 4 but I think all of them deserve to be here with crazy combinations of talent, experience, and usage.

Tier 2 (7-15) – Clear #1 Options (And Higgins) Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
WR7	Nico Collins	HOU	120	1023	8	227	9	-2	7	8	0
WR8	Chris Olave	NO	142	1097	8	248	12	-4	16	11	-8
WR9	Drake London	ATL	110	848	7	195	7	2	11	7	-2
WR10	AJ Brown	NE	120	1068	8	233	8	2	12	9	-2
WR11	Malik Nabers	NYG	106	778	6	179	13	-2	8	13	3
WR12	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	127	997	8	223	20	-8	9	18	3
WR13	Tee Higgins	CIN	103	842	8	196	17	-4	10	16	3
WR14	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	115	844	8	198	19	-5	13	17	1
WR15	DeVonta Smith	PHI	116	958	7	218	14	1	20	14	-5

Wilson might be the guy I’m highest on in the top two tiers of any position in fantasy this year. I think he’s insanely talented, and that with the offensive line giving Geno time I think he’ll be able to spam Wilson targets, I’ve brough his rank down just a touch but he’s a player I really like at value this year. As far as my changes I moved Olave from the bottom of this tier to the top because I was just too low and now with Tyson out for potentially a quarter of the year he’s by far and away the best player on the Saints offense and Moore will continue to scheme through him in New Orleans.

Tier 3 (16-34) – Really Good with Question Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
WR16	Brian Thomas Jr	JAX	114	898	6	195	33	-17	17	33	-1
WR17	Ladd McConkey	LAC	113	908	8	215	18	-1	15	19	2
WR18	George Pickens	DAL	126	1100	7	230	10	8	19	10	-1
WR19	DJ Moore	BUF	114	941	8	213	25	-6	28	26	-9
WR20	Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	113	818	7	185	31	-11	23	31	-3
WR21	Emeka Egbuka	TB	108	793	6	169	16	5	31	20	-10
WR22	Rashee Rice	KC	127	1031	8	249	11	11	14	12	8
WR23	Zay Flowers	BAL	135	1144	6	241	15	8	25	15	-2
WR24	Carnell Tate	TEN	83	661	6	162	30	-6	27	30	-3
WR25	Rome Odunze	CHI	104	721	5	155	28	-3	22	28	3
WR26	DK Metcalf	PIT	118	964	8	214	34	-8	18	35	8
WR27	Terry McLaurin	WAS	112	904	8	210	23	4	24	23	3
WR28	Christian Watson	GB	95	832	6	175	29	-1	50	29	-22
WR29	Jaylen Waddle	DEN	127	1004	6	224	21	8	29	24	0
WR30	Luther Burden III	CHI	98	854	3	181	22	8	41	21	-11
WR31	Courtland Sutton	DEN	127	940	6	207	36	-5	21	36	10
WR32	Jameson Williams	DET	107	960	6	197	26	6	33	25	-1
WR33	Davante Adams	LAR	122	921	8	216	24	9	32	22	1
WR34	Mike Evans	SF	102	884	6	183	27	7	38	27	-4

Now we get into some better arguments so let’s run through everyone I’m at least half a positional tier (6 ranks) different from ADP:

Thomas (16 vs 33) – I trust the talent, there were hiccups in year 1 under Coen but the news suggests they are much more on the same page this year.

Pickens (18 vs 10) – I think the league has recalibrated on Pickens and we’ll see some regression. I don’t think he’s bad by any means I’m just a believer that he’s due to come back down to earth from the heights of last season.

Moore (19 vs 25) – I’ve been a Moore believer most of his career, he was slightly disappointing in Chicago but he’s the best receiver by a long shot in Buffalo.

Rice (22 vs 11) – Rice is coming off a massive injury and a tumultuous offseason, he’s talented but not without risk.

Flowers (23 vs 15) – Flowers needs to score TDs, he’s never been above 4 in a season, if he does that, he’s well worth 15^th overall.

Tate (24 vs 30) – Tate will be the WR 1 in Tennessee, he’s an experienced player and should slot in to a nice role. I have him as the last WR2, and there’s a chance my projection has him a bit undervalued target share-wise.

Metcalf (26 vs 34) – The variance in what the offense could be is huge but Metcalf is a physical freak and finished as a high-end WR3 last year.

Waddle (29 vs 21) – I’ll probably end up closer to ADP but I’m not sure there ends up being a huge difference in target share between him and Sutton and I think Denver throws enough for both to be viable pieces in fantasy.

Burden (30 vs 22) – The injury had me drop him a bit farther than I already was but I think the Burden hype got a bit out of hand this offseason even if I think he’s going to be a very good and useful player.

Williams (32 vs 26) – Good player, deep threat on a team who’s offensive line may not be able to give Goff the time to find him quite as often.

Adams (33 vs 24) – TD% and target share seem slightly unsustainable.

Evans (34 vs 27) – Soft tissue issues already popping up in San Fran, new team, and age all working against him.

Tier 4 (35-52) – The WR 2 Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
WR35	Alec Pierce	IND	108	883	6	183	37	-2	30	32	5
WR36	Makai Lemon	PHI	80	679	5	154	43	-7	40	38	-4
WR37	Jordan Addison	MIN	107	820	7	190	46	-9	34	44	3
WR38	Jayden Reed	GB	87	751	5	168	44	-6	35	45	3
WR39	Parker Washington	JAX	100	752	6	174	32	7	37	37	2
WR40	Stefon Diggs	WAS	93	732	5	168	48	-8	NR	56	NR
WR41	Michael Pittman Jr	PIT	98	732	6	176	41	0	43	116	-2
WR42	Matthew Golden	GB	71	586	3	123	49	-7	54	51	-12
WR43	Jordyn Tyson	NO	77	639	4	142	35	8	39	34	4
WR44	Xavier Worthy	KC	90	701	4	146	50	-6	36	49	8
WR45	Michael Wilson	ARI	102	757	5	171	38	7	51	39	-6
WR46	Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	83	506	4	132	45	1	72	46	-26
WR47	KC Concepcion	CLE	84	605	6	155	52	-5	45	52	2
WR48	Josh Downs	IND	95	666	4	152	42	6	57	48	-9
WR49	Chris Godwin Jr	TB	79	636	4	142	40	9	49	40	0
WR50	Quentin Johnston	LAC	96	756	6	169	39	11	59	47	-9
WR51	Christian Kirk	SF	83	687	6	158	90	-39	71	87	-20
WR52	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	87	635	6	150	67	-15	68	66	-16

Not a lot of big differences here, Addison seems weirdly undervalued with a bounce back expected in Minnesota, Diggs and Tyson are differences built more on news being fresh than major disagreements, Godwin is older and in a passing game I think has more depth and breadth of options. Johnston is a player who I really like and want to end up in the top-40 WRs because I’ve believed in him coming out but the current ADP seems to be pricing in only upside and that worries me. Kirk is older and was hit or miss in Houston last year but I think there are very realistic scenarios in which he is the 2^nd most consistent receiver this year… that said it’s not a hard set position. Jeudy is the best veteran receiver on the Browns, the moves and depth chart suggest Tillman is the odd man out with Boston and Concepcion coming in. Even if he’s not the lead option I think he’s a solid and steady performer in this offense.

Tier 6 (53-81) – Lottery Ticket Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
WR53	Rashid Shaheed	SEA	83	680	5	150	55	-2	52	57	1
WR54	Romeo Doubs	NE	92	716	4	154	51	3	53	50	1
WR55	Jalen Coker	CAR	57	432	4	109	56	-1	66	55	-11
WR56	Deebo Samuel Sr	SF	50	438	3	95	57	-1	NR	63	NR
WR57	Jakobi Meyers	JAX	71	525	2	115	47	10	61	42	-4
WR58	Khalil Shakir	BUF	71	574	3	129	54	4	62	53	-4
WR59	Jalen McMillan	TB	71	571	6	141	59	0	44	61	15
WR60	Ryan Flournoy	DAL	67	532	4	124	71	-11	125	73	-65
WR61	Calvin Ridley	TEN	50	360	3	84	74	-13	60	70	1
WR62	Travis Hunter	JAX	57	385	1	82	61	1	80	59	-18
WR63	Darius Slayton	NYG	85	648	3	131	189	-126	75	116	-12
WR64	Tre Harris	LAC	83	631	2	132	189	-125	56	116	8
WR65	Cyrus Allen	KC	45	412	2	85	84	-19	161	116	-96
WR66	Isaac TeSlaa	DET	48	541	4	107	68	-2	65	71	1
WR67	Pat Bryant	DEN	51	362	2	80	85	-18	91	91	-24
WR68	Denzel Boston	CLE	58	444	3	103	58	10	64	62	4
WR69	Dontayvion Wicks	PHI	67	497	3	108	72	-3	98	88	-29
WR70	Ted Hurst	TB	69	595	3	126	89	-19	104	86	-34
WR71	Xavier Hutchinson	HOU	84	657	4	135	131	-60	81	116	-10
WR72	Tre Tucker	LVR	66	445	4	107	65	7	46	65	26
WR73	Mack Hollins	NE	44	352	2	76	189	-116	67	116	6
WR74	Jalen Tolbert	MIA	72	566	5	128	107	-33	55	116	19
WR75	Darnell Mooney	NYG	74	521	3	112	80	-5	76	81	-1
WR76	Omar Cooper Jr	NYJ	58	476	3	107	64	12	48	58	28
WR77	Andrei Iosivas	CIN	50	365	4	91	136	-59	82	110	-5
WR78	Cooper Kupp	SEA	55	438	3	103	79	-1	73	82	5
WR79	Malik Washington	MIA	65	450	2	103	70	9	148	74	-69
WR80	Jauan Jennings	MIN	62	455	3	103	63	17	42	60	38
WR81	Adonai Mitchell	NYJ	69	504	4	104	69	12	70	77	11

Let’s just focus on the players outside the top-100 in positional ADP/not in the ADP data players…

Slayton might be the WR2 on this roster behind and is at worst WR4 in my mind as we close in on the season.

Harris is the WR3 for the Chargers, if we think the offense is going to be more high flying he should see a sizeable leap year 2.

ADP was grabbed before the Higgins injury but I think the role comes down to Hutchinson and Bond and I lean towards the vet.

Hollins may end up being shuffled with the changes to the receiving corps but he was a safety blanket for Maye last year and I think that means a role remains.

Tolbert seems to be letting his shot at being the true WR1 on the Dolphins slip but he’s the only solid vet on the team.

Iosivas is the WR3 in a Cincy offense we expect to be firing on all cylinders and there isn’t much on the roster to take away his target share.

Tier 6 (82-102) – More Lottery Tickets Tier & Tier 7 (103-139) Deep Sleepers Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Tier	Pos ADP	Diff	1^st Rank	1^st Pos ADP	1^st Vs 2^nd
WR82	Kalif Raymond	CHI	74	607	3	130	6	128	-46	149	116	-67
WR83	Jalen Nailor	LVR	58	394	5	104	6	60	23	109	64	-26
WR84	Keon Coleman	BUF	38	297	2	64	6	92	-8	118	93	-34
WR85	Zachariah Branch	ATL	28	199	2	52	6	77	8	86	80	-1
WR86	Kyle Williams	NE	36	325	2	62	6	189	-103	69	116	17
WR87	Jaylin Noel	HOU	56	441	2	98	6	98	-11	92	100	-5
WR88	Antonio Williams	WAS	56	408	3	98	6	75	13	74	68	14
WR89	Malachi Fields	NYG	53	436	2	93	6	82	7	97	84	-8
WR90	Zavion Thomas	CHI	53	375	2	88	6	115	-25	174	112	-84
WR91	Devaughn Vele	NO	48	373	3	87	6	103	-12	93	113	-2
WR92	Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	64	485	4	112	6	189	-97	128	116	-36
WR93	Germie Bernard	PIT	50	423	3	94	6	83	10	111	79	-18
WR94	Tank Dell	HOU	56	455	2	93	6	73	21	119	76	-25
WR95	Jordan Whittington	LAR	30	245	2	59	6	132	-37	115	116	-20
WR96	Elic Ayomanor	TEN	33	191	2	46	6	102	-6	120	97	-24
WR97	Caleb Douglas	MIA	36	330	3	75	6	91	6	117	116	-20
WR98	Bryce Lance	NO	43	292	3	77	6	113	-15	106	116	-8
WR99	KaVontae Turpin	DAL	29	237	2	53	6	119	-20	157	116	-58
WR100	Jack Bech	LVR	47	300	3	81	6	117	-17	107	104	-7
WR101	Rashod Bateman	BAL	49	389	3	85	6	87	14	58	98	43
WR102	Tyquan Thornton	KC	51	384	3	83	6	99	3	90	101	12
WR103	Brandon Aiyuk	SF					6	96	7	77	67	26
WR104	Deion Burks	IND	60	415	3	101	7	189	-85	112	116	-8
WR105	Joshua Palmer	BUF	49	378	2	78	7	189	-84	78	116	27
WR106	Treylon Burks	WAS	42	306	3	72	7	189	-83	159	116	-53
WR107	Skyler Bell	BUF	27	216	1	47	7	121	-14	100	102	7
WR108	DeMario Douglas	NE	25	197	1	41	7	125	-17	101	114	7
WR109	Savion Williams	GB	21	162	1	43	7	189	-80	122	116	-13
WR110	De'Zhaun Stribling	SF	30	266	1	54	7	62	48	102	78	8
WR111	Elijah Sarratt	BAL	27	236	2	54	7	118	-7	94	92	17
WR112	Jalen Royals	KC	21	185	1	39	7	123	-11	133	116	-21
WR113	Jahan Dotson	ATL	38	280	2	63	7	189	-76	85	116	28
WR114	Ja'Kobi Lane	BAL	30	249	3	64	7	81	33	131	90	-17
WR115	Xavier Legette	CAR	57	379	2	82	7	189	-74	87	116	28
WR116	Marvin Mims Jr	DEN	48	366	2	83	7	189	-73	108	116	8
WR117	Tory Horton	SEA	36	260	2	59	7	95	22	105	95	12
WR118	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	IND	41	295	2	65	7	189	-71	144	116	-26
WR119	Jaylin Lane	WAS	28	200	0	34	7	109	10	130	116	-11
WR120	Chris Bell	MIA	24	214	1	46	7	97	23	63	83	57
WR121	Troy Franklin	DEN	57	364	2	82	7	88	33	99	85	22
WR122	Xavier Smith	LAR	30	293	1	59	7	189	-67	103	116	19
WR123	Tez Johnson	TB	29	212	2	52	7	189	-66	88	116	35
WR124	Chimere Dike	TEN	33	189	2	51	7	101	23	79	96	45
WR125	Jake Bobo	SEA	19	140	1	37	7	189	-64	124	116	1
WR126	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	DAL	26	209	1	41	7	189	-63	211	116	-85
WR127	Devontez Walker	BAL	49	395	2	82	7	139	-12	95	116	32
WR128	Tutu Atwell	MIA	43	369	1	70	7	129	-1	127	116	1
WR129	Malik Benson	LVR	24	164	1	39	7	110	19	156	99	-27
WR130	Kevin Coleman Jr	MIA	26	217	1	46	7	111	19	151	116	-21
WR131	Brenen Thompson	LAC	25	204	1	44	7	124	7	136	116	-5
WR132	Kendrick Bourne	ARI	31	240	2	57	7	189	-57	114	116	18
WR133	Hollywood Brown	PHI	39	280	1	57	7	100	33	96	107	37
WR134	Roman Wilson	PIT	24	183	1	38	7	120	14	132	116	2
WR135	Josh Cameron	JAX	29	220	2	54	7	189	-54	192	116	-57
WR136	Greg Dortch	DET	23	163	1	41	7	189	-53	178	116	-42
WR137	Mecole Hardman	BUF	19	154	1	36	7	189	-52	212	116	-75
WR138	Konata Mumpfield	LAR	30	173	1	38	7	189	-51	153	116	-15
WR139	Charlie Jones	CIN	24	167	1	40	7	189	-50	137	116	2