Ramblings of a Graduate Student

Day 250: Hermine

pmarsh — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 04:59:57 +0000

The remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine, the giant comma-shape on the image above, are slowly moving northward, through Texas. This is very heavy rain, and flash flood warnings are widespread throughout Texas. This rain will move into Oklahoma tomorrow, so please be careful while driving across the state. Most likely, there will be areas where [...]

Day 249: More Moisture Than I Bargained For

pmarsh — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 01:32:49 +0000

Late last evening, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) declared that a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico had become organized enough to have the title “Tropical Depression”. Then, overnight, it became Tropical Storm Hermine. The graphic above depicts the forecast track of Hermine. Associated with the tropical storm will [...]

Day 248: Moisture Return Underway

pmarsh — Mon, 06 Sep 2010 04:45:00 +0000

Last night, I mentioned that moisture was poised to return north today. The image above depicted the 24-hour change in dewpoint temperatures (a measure of moisture) across Oklahoma. Now, I just need the cold front to come bring some rain…

Day 247: Moisture Poised To Return North Sunday

pmarsh — Sun, 05 Sep 2010 03:20:42 +0000

This evening’s southern plains surface chart indicates that low-level moisture is located across much of Texas. This moisture is poised to return northward over the next few days. How do I know? Examination of tonight’s water vapor imagery reveals two strong short-wave troughs located across the northern plains: 1) one over the Great Lakes; and [...]

Day 246: Meteorological Autumn

pmarsh — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 03:47:11 +0000

Meteorologists typically define seasons based on calendar months, instead of the position of the sun. These seasons break down into the following (in the Northern Hemisphere): Spring: March, April, May Summer: June, July, August Autumn: September, October, November Winter: December, January, February Last night a cold front moved through the southern plains, ushering in cooler, [...]

Day 245: Earl

pmarsh — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:50:41 +0000

From a this meteorologist’s point of view, Earl is a thing of beauty. Part of me wishes I could be on shores of North Carolina tonight. However, I know enough about the power of Mother Nature to stay away…

Day 244: Hurricane

pmarsh — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 02:06:34 +0000

Nothing fancy tonight, just a satellite (water vapor) image of a classic hurricane. Earl is too close to landfall; I don’t want to provide potentially conflicting information from what is being disseminated via official channels. For my thoughts and details of things to look for in the next couple of hours, please see previous blog [...]

Day 243: Complicated East Coast Pattern

pmarsh — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 03:14:30 +0000

Many people are focused on Major Hurricane Earl tonight, wondering what the eventual path will be. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to keep Earl just off the east coast of the United States. However, because of the large size of Earl’s wind field, a hurricane watch has been issued for [...]

Day 242: Major Hurricane Earl

pmarsh — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 02:46:26 +0000

Hurricane Earl has intensified to a category 4 hurricane today, passing within 100 miles of San Juan, Puerto Rico. As you can see from the radar images, Earl is extremely well organized. I know the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast (as of this writing) calls for Earl to miss the east coast of the [...]

Day 241: Cone of Uncertainty: New York City Edition

pmarsh — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 02:24:50 +0000

When viewing National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast graphics, people tend to focus on the specific location of the icons, or the path between the icons. Taking the forecast at face value, the east coast of the United States has nothing to worry about with Hurricane Earl. Unfortunately, hurricanes are not simply points in the Atlantic [...]