Ramblings of a Reds Fan: MLB Journal (Cincinnati)

Cincinnati Reds Preview: More of the Same in 2010?

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 22:44:00 +0000

A lot of speculation has surrounded this year’s version of the Cincinnati Reds, most notably for the surprising, almost out-of-nowhere signing of Aroldis Chapman to solidify the starting rotation potentially immediately. After last year’s team had some expectation of achieving better things but failed to deliver, this year’s squad comes in with low expectations … which might just mean a surprise is in order.

First and foremost, what doomed the Reds in 2009 is what likely will be the biggest hurdle in 2010: having offensive firepower. The individual cogs of the machine that make up the lineup are not bad, but put them all together and they couldn’t generate runs last season. The late-season addition of Scott Rolen took many by surprise, and having the third baseman return for another season as a very good team leader might be what changes things finally. The infield finally has taken some shape, with Rolen at third, new addition Orlando Cabrera at short, stalwart Brandon Phillips at second, and eventual (hopefully) steady captain-in-waiting Joey Votto at first. Behind the plate, the Reds still have some concern, although Ramon Hernandez was retained for cheaper than expected and Ryan Hanigan is a more-than-capable platoon choice defensively. The backups around the diamond hold some interesting potential as well, from Juan Francisco (backing up Rolen at third) to Paul Janish (who we already have seen be a utility infielder but can pick-it like a Gold Glover at short) as well as off-season acquisition Aaron Miles (who can provide some relief behind Phillips at second). As a positive, to provide some relief for Votto in the field, Ramon Hernandez already provided some of that help at first last season when he subbed in the starting lineup as well as later in the game.

The situation in the outfield is still a bit murky, only because the talent pool has some depth but equally provides some complexity. The starting three from left to right looks like Jonny Gomes (who has gone homer crazy in Spring Training so far) in left, Drew Stubbs in center, and star-in-waiting Jay Bruce in right. The backups for these three are equally intriguing from Chris Dickerson (who can play left or center in a platoon scenario and has some speed defensively as well as on the basepaths), Laynce Nix (re-signed to a minor league deal but may or may not make the club depending on roster spots remaining; he has some nice offensive pop that the lineup could use), and Wladimir Balentien (a spot starter last season and could play where needed in any outfield slot).

When the subject of the Cincinnati club turns to pitching, the starting rotation seems like a bright spot; however, if the spring results so far are an indicator, the team might be riding a roller coaster depending on the right (or wrong) combo of starters. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo should be stalwarts on the starting staff (and still the default 1-2 punch), but Harang hasn’t been Harang since 2007 (even though he was among the best in both 2006 and 2007), and Arroyo is a steady innings-eater but doesn’t always deliver big wins totals by season’s end. Both guys are in the final years of their contracts … which should mean they want to prove the doubters wrong (I hope). I won’t be surprised to see either or both traded by the trading deadline unless they start pitching lights-out like both are capable of doing. The rest of the rotation is where the real potential lies, from Homer Bailey (also with the “star-in-waiting” logo firmly affixed and who looks to have a great season ahead based on late 2009 results) to Johnny Cueto (whose fastball and slider combo still can burn many major leaguers) to Micah Owings (who still gets as much notoriety for his offensive ability in addition to his pitching skills). Bailey and Cueto are almost assuredly the third and fourth starters, and the success (or failure) of these two might determine exactly where this club finishes. Other pitchers vying for a rotation spot include the aforementioned Owings (most likely headed to the long relief role again as well as spot pinch hitter), Travis Wood (who might become a long reliever or sneak into the fifth starter spot), Mike Leake (who has had a decent if unspectacular spring), and the wild card of Aroldis Chapman (who fought some back spasms earlier this spring but continues to look sharp in his outings). If either Wood or Chapman makes the team and fills out the starting rotation with some high-velocity capability, this team just moved up in a notch in its prospects for 2010.

All in all, the Reds will be a team that can compete in the NL Central (as has been the broken record for the past few seasons), but, unlike past years, the competition is not markedly better than the Reds are this season. Offense is still the biggest question mark, but pitching should not be the issue. The bullpen is equally solid and up to the task as the starting rotation should be. Francisco Cordero (the Reds’ lone All-Star choice) should continue to be solid if not for the possibility of being trade bait by mid-season or earlier. Nick Masset, Jared Burton (potential closer in waiting), Arthur Rhodes (former closer with some capability), and Daniel Ray Herrera are all assured spots based on past performance. Justin Lehr (spot starter last season) may or may not start in the big leagues this year, but Mike Lincoln along with Owings should also get spots. Other familiar names (Kip Wells, Carlos Fisher, and Matt Maloney) are probably not quite ready to start the season in the majors.

The optimist in me wants to peg this club as an NL Central contender, but, realistically, the Chicago Cubs are still better and will likely win the division again. The NL Wild Card is not out of the question, though, as being second place in this division just might make the playoffs anyway.

Latest Rumblings from Reds' Camp (St. Patrick's Day Edition - March 17)

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 18:13:00 +0000

I don't have a lot of "new" information to share except what I have seen coming from Spring Training Camp in Sarasota, Florida. Of course, we all know that this is the last season for Sarasota, as the Reds head west next Spring to sunny Goodyear, Arizona. While some aspects of Florida spring training will be missed (notably, Florida itself), the likelihood of more sunny days and far less rain probabilities make Arizona the better long-term home for the team (or at least it seems that way).

As far as the product on the field, the pitching staff continues to impress. Aaron Harang looks like the pitcher we all remember, Volquez is doing what we expect (so far), Cueto looks improved (with limited data, since he's logged innings for his WBC team recently), and Arroyo looks as "normal" as ever (as a compliment, he shows no mechanical or physical issues to date). The biggest and best surprises have clearly been Micah Owings (whom I expected to show us big things) and Homer Bailey (could this be HIS year at last?). Owings, known more for his hitting than his pitching, is showing some pretty solid stuff so far this spring, and, if I were to guess, he'll get the fifth starter spot to start the season. However, Homer has staked a claim that the role is his, too ... but I see him headed to long relief to start the season (as my personal best guess).

Who hasn't looked good? Francisco Cordero looks shaky at best ... is age a factor? Have the Reds got an "alternative" if he falls apart during the season? My fast answers are Jared Burton (who could close very soon) and David Weathers (thankfully, he came back ... even if he seems unreliable to us). Weathers has been about as steady as they come over the past few seasons, so an unreliable Cordero is concerning but not as difficult to overcome if the "closer by committee" rears its ugly head at some point.

Offensively, there have been a few bright spots. Johnny Gomes has all but locked up a roster spot with a great spring training, and he is positioned to platoon in left field with Chris Dickerson. Dickerson still shows "immaturity" in his game ... but still shows great potential as an everyday player down the road. Jacque Jones has been a bust so far ... and may be released outright or possibly signed to a minor league deal if he agrees. Most of the minor leaguers who were invited to camp have been sent back down, including #1 pick Yonder Alonso, hot hitter Todd Frazier, and Minor League Player of the Year Chris Valaika.

The projected lineup for Opening Day is looking pretty clear (dependent upon whom we see pitching for our opponents, the New York Mets).

1 - Willy Taveras (speed to burn)
2 - Jeff Keppinger (likely) / Jerry Hairston (possible, depends on platoon) / Chris Dickerson (if platooning) / Edwin Encarnacion (doubtful)
3 - Joey Votto (no-brainer)
4 - Brandon Phillips (ditto)
5 - Jay Bruce (definite)
6 - Edwin Encarnacion (likely) / Dickerson (maybe) / Hairston / Keppinger
7 - Ramon Hernandez (likely, although I can see him hitting higher if the power is there)
8 - Alex Gonzalez (depends on his recovery) / Keppinger (maybe)
9 - Pitcher's spot (although, if Owings is in the rotation, this might change)

Your rotation seems very likely to be: Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Owings (in that order). Bailey might contend for that five spot (or, if Cueto falters, both Owings and Bailey are in). Long relief - Nick Masset (although he has had an awful spring so far), the "leftovers" from the fifth-spot competition.

I am looking forward (still) to a great season, where this team will actually gel, win over 82 games (better than .500), and (hopefully) make a playoff run. Division title? Maybe not. Wild Card? Definitely possible.

Clubhouse Connection Videos - 2009 Cincinnati Reds Season Preview

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 17:53:00 +0000

Clubhouse Connection Videos - Alex Rodriguez Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 17:51:00 +0000

Cincinnati Reds: 2009 Season Preview

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 12:11:00 +0000

The Cincinnati Reds, along with their team ownership and management staff, could be accused of a lot of things, but this off-season they cannot be accused of one thing: sitting still. While most media outlets have branded this team a “young” or “up-and-coming” group of potential future standouts, this team has a legitimate shot to contend in the 2009 season. They play in what has become a much tougher division – the National League (NL) Central – where perennial contenders include the big-payroll Chicago Cubs and the smaller-market but bigger-spending St. Louis Cardinals, both of whom will garner the lion’s share of attention for the divisional crown and/or the wild card berth. Get past the Cubs and Cardinals and you cannot miss last year’s “pleasant surprise” club – the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Reds rarely see the national spotlight cast their way, not realistically since their “better days” back in the NL West of the 1970’s and 1980’s. You could say this team has become under-appreciated (much like last season’s “Cinderella” in the Tampa Bay Rays) with a core of young talent surrounded by a veteran coaching staff and top-notch management. Owner Robert (Bob) Castellini wanted to put a winner on the field when he took over day-to-day ownership only a few long seasons ago … but it wasn’t until Dusty Baker (who made the playoffs with the Giants and Cubs in previous jobs) was hired prior to the 2008 season as well as the passing of the GM torch to well-respected front-office man Walt Jocketty (fresh from his success with the St. Louis Cardinals) that things appeared to be heading in a new direction. Former managers like Dave Miley, Jerry Narron, and Pete Mackanin were all solid baseball men … but Dusty is something that those men have never been (at least yet): a proven winner.

Yes, Dusty Baker will manage this team again in 2009 after a 2008 campaign that clearly fell apart. Baker was not solely to blame for the eventual 74-win season, but former GM Wayne Krivsky probably took far too much of the blame (i.e. the scapegoat) for why the team underachieved on the field. Arguably, signing guys like Corey Patterson and Paul Bako to larger-than-needed contracts was part of Krivsky’s eventual undoing, but he was also responsible (and credited) with bringing talent like Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Phillips, and Edinson Volquez here within the past couple of years. This team couldn’t have won 70 games without those three critical names, but, in the same vein, they could have won more if Aaron Harang, Edwin Encarnacion, and (now departed) Ken Griffey, Jr., had all lived up to their respective potentials. Adam Dunn is an enigma, a potential “private” clubhouse leader who gives a “public” persona that he just never cared about this baseball team. Without Dunn (or Griffey, for the matter), the short porch in right field rarely got used for the latter half of 2008. Guys like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto – both viable ROY candidates during the last season – produced in pleasantly unexpected ways both offensively (with HR potential) and defensively (although both experienced unnecessary lapses on the field). What will NOT be missed from Adam Dunn is a poorly-played left field position, where late-season call-up Chris Dickerson provided a much-needed spark both offensively (with impressive speed on the base paths) and defensively (making the spectacular sometimes look routine) in playing circles around what Dunn could have done in LF.

Here’s a quick review of the newest faces (and recently departed) based on off-season trades and free-agent signings:

(1) C Ramon Hernandez acquired from Baltimore Orioles for IF/OF Ryan Freel

(2) OF Willy Taveras signed as a free agent (played for Colorado Rockies in 2008)

(3) Re-signed IF/OF Jerry Hairston, Jr., P David Weathers, 3B Edwin Encarnacion, and P Mike Lincoln, among the more notable names

(4) Lost to free agency: P Jeremy Affeldt, OF Corey Patterson, C Paul Bako

(5) Notable names from 2008 absent in 2009: OF Ken Griffey, Jr., OF Adam Dunn

The first "big" deal was the acquisition of catcher Ramon Hernandez from the Baltimore Orioles for OF/utility man Ryan Freel. Freel's best days certainly appeared to be behind him, with a playing style best characterized as recklessly aggressive, and injuries over the past two seasons limited his availability and productivity. Hernandez saw his stock drop with a poor 2008 season, but his history indicates more upside potential and/or ability than he demonstrated last season. The two other players (minor leaguers) involved do not seem to warrant discussion, but I am happy to see a veteran catcher, particularly one of Latino descent, with a pitching staff of generally younger pitchers (and notable Latino phenoms in Volquez and Johnny Cueto). I think Jocketty played his cards right in this move.

While the free-agent signing of Willy Taveras seems to be met with mixed reviews, I honestly don't see Willy Taveras as the second coming of Corey Patterson for a handful of reasons, to be honest. Taveras was the MLB leader in stolen bases by a mile last season, and his steal % is excellent (over 90% as I recall, best in all of MLB). Yes, his OBP for last season, in all respects, was lousy. However, this team DOES need speed at the top of the order AND Ryan Freel, who was the team’s only other SB guy, has been hurt for most of the last two seasons. Jerry Hairston, who recently re-signed as a free agent, fills some of the speed equation, too, but where does he play longer term?

Edwin Encarnacion just might be a piece of the complex puzzle for the outfield that has been overlooked consistently. Some of the baseball "experts" have pointed to the fact that he plays third base hot and cold ... and makes some of the dumbest errors. Nobody questions he does have an arm, though, as most 3B do. Do with Encarnacion what the Brewers did with Ryan Braun - move him to the LF spot. Although local media (including Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer John Fay) has suggested it won’t happen, I still don’t see why it can’t happen.

GABP (Great American Ballpark) doesn't have to be a power park, plain and simple. For this with the local knowledge, remember the suggestion by Aaron Harang near the end of last season about raising some of the fences? While it seemed to be widely dismissed, it is not such an awful idea, particularly the small wall in right field. Want to equalize the effect for both teams? Raise that fence by a simple few feet (maybe wipe out one to two rows of seats at worst) and make hitters earn the cheap homers that the park allows.

Say what you will about the Griffey effect on the design of GABP ... how many of the "cheap" homers did he actually hit here? Adam Dunn could hit his mammoth shots in any park ... same goes for Reds' killers like Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Ryan Howard, to name but a few. Those guys hit the long bombs in ANY park ... not much you can do with a park that allows for the northwest wind and humid summer air to launch those “bad boys” right towards the Ohio River.

Walt Jocketty is not "delusional" ... in fact, I would say his moves so far have been respectable. Why does everyone think this team cannot compete in 2009? If any respectable Reds’ fan is in the "re-sign Dunn" camp that probably exists ... before you go that route, consider that the market isn't really what he wanted. The Reds, dare say it, might actually put him back in uniform before spring training (doubtful at this stage) OR they might just get a guy like Bobby Abreu or Xavier Nady to fill the outfield hole offensively and defensively. Both choices would add depth to a team in need of some veteran presence beyond Harang, Arroyo, and Phillips, among others.

Dunn had five-plus seasons to show us how one-dimensional he was - all power, no fielding. I'm hardly his biggest fan, and I believe he belongs in the American League where they value sluggers who can't field (the DH) just to provide more offense. If he signs with a team like the SF Giants or the LA Dodgers (both whom are seeking sluggers), he might succeed ... SF is a much better bet, though. In his later years, Barry Bonds wasn't playing a very good LF defensively anyway, so the same short porch (into McCovey Cove) at San Fran's ballpark would suit Dunner just fine. If I were the Giants, I would actually consider Dunn as the cheaper alternative to Man-Ram, who comes with too much personal baggage AND plays a lousy OF, too.

Here’s looking forward to a “Reds-Hot” Summer in 2009 … where your Cincinnati Reds just might be the new version of last season’s Tampa Bay Rays.

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All content courtesy of Clubhouse Connection (http://clubhouseconnection.com/) and respective author JD Rentz. All rights reserved.

Cincinnati Reds: Hot Stove Update (January 2009)

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 12:22:00 +0000

I intended to start up my Reds Hot Stove back in late November into early December, but not much was happening up until then for trades and/or free agent signings. While some still think the activity has been pretty low, things have definitely picked up since right before Christmas until now.

The first "big" deal was the acquisition of catcher Ramon Hernandez from the Baltimore Orioles for OF/utility man Ryan Freel. Freel's best days certainly appeared to be behind him, with a playing style best characterized as recklessly aggressive, and injuries over the past two seasons limited his availability and productivity. Hernandez saw his stock drop with a poor 2008 season, but his history indicates more upside potential and/or ability than he demonstrated last season. The two other players (minor leaguers) involved do not seem to warrant discussion, but I am happy to see a veteran catcher, particularly one of Latino descent, with a pitching staff of generally younger pitchers (and notable Latino phenoms in Volquez and Cueto). I think Jocketty played his cards right in this move.

While the free-agent signing of Willy Taveras seems to be met with mixed reviews, I honestly don't see Willy Taveras as the second coming of Corey Patterson for a handful of reasons, to be honest. Taveras was the MLB leader in stolen bases by a mile last season, and his steal % is excellent (over 90% as I recall, best in all of MLB). Yes, his OBP for last season, in all respects, was lousy. However, this team DOES need speed at the top of the order AND Ryan Freel, who was our only other SB guy, has been hurt for most of the last two seasons. Jerry Hairston, just re-signed, fills some of the speed equation, too, but where does he play longer term?

Edwin Encarnacion just might be a piece of the complex puzzle for the outfield that has been overlooked consistently. Some of the baseball "experts" have pointed to the fact that he plays third base hot and cold ... and makes some of the dumbest errors. Nobody questions he does have an arm, though, as most 3B do. Do with Encarnacion what the Brewers did with Ryan Braun - move him to the LF spot.

GABP doesn't have to be a power park, plain and simple. Remember the suggestion by Aaron Harang near the end of last season about raising some of the fences? While it seemed to be widely dismissed, it is not such an awful idea, particularly the small wall in right field. Want to equalize the effect for both teams? Raise that fence by a simple few feet (maybe wipe out one to two rows of seats at worst) and make hitters earn the cheap homers that park allows.

Say what you will about the Griffey effect on the design of GABP ... how many of the "cheap" homers did he actually hit here? Adam Dunn could hit his mammoth shots in any park ... same goes for Reds' killers like Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Ryan Howard, to name but a few. Those guys hit the long bombs in ANY park ... not much you can do with a park that allows for the northwest wind and humid summer air to launch those bad boys right towards the Ohio River.

Walt Jocketty is not "delusional" ... in fact, I would say his moves so far have been respectable. Why does everyone think this team cannot compete in 2009? Corey Patterson was the idea of Dusty Baker and pursued by now-deposed GM Wayne Krivsky. Krivsky also found gems (like Arroyo, Phillips, and Hairston) in conjunction with his scouting staff and management (like Baker and those before him). If you are in the "re-sign Dunn" camp that probably exists ... before you go that route, consider that the market isn't really what he wanted. The Reds, dare say it, might actually put him back in uniform before spring training OR they might just get a guy like Rocco Baldelli, who would be far superior to Dunn defensively and at least on par offensively. Baldelli's biggest knock has been his health issues ... if he has that under control, he's the guy I want in our outfield in 2009, not Dunn. Dunn had five plus seasons to show us how one-dimensional he was - all power, no fielding. I'm hardly his biggest fan, and I believe he belongs in the American League where they value sluggers who can't field (the DH) just to provide more offense. If he signs with a team like the SF Giants or the LA Dodgers (both whom are seeking sluggers), he might succeed ... SF is a much better bet, though. In his later years, Barry Bonds wasn't playing a very good LF defensively anyway, so that same short porch (into McCovey Cove) at San Fran's ballpark would suit Dunner just fine. If I were the Giants, I would actually consider Dunn as the cheaper alternative to Man-Ram, who comes with too much personal baggage AND plays a lousy OF, too.

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All content courtesy of Clubhouse Connection (http://clubhouseconnection.com/) and respective author JD Rentz. All rights reserved.

2008: A Year in Review

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:11:00 +0000

As the year of 2008 draws quickly to a close, the opportunity presents itself to look back on the past events that made the year what it was. The past couple of months, particularly this last month of December, provide a glimpse into the year that 2009 is likely to become. Before I get ahead of myself with the 2009 Preview of Major League Baseball, I want to turn back the clock and do a Year in Review segment to highlight what made MLB in 2008.

The 2008 season started with a number of new faces in new places. It wasn't a notable year for free agent movement, for sure ... but it was notable for teams trading pieces to other places during the season as well as the emergence of new blood (rookies and other newcomers) . My own hometown squad, the Cincinnati Reds, certainly got most of my attention, and I wouldn't reference myself as a Reds Fan if they weren't the typical theme of my writing. They made a notable offseason move prior to the 2008 campaign that set the tone for the season in more ways than one.

Back in the early part of the year (actually at the tail end of 2007), the Reds and Texas Rangers orchestrated a swap that seemed pretty innocuous on the surface: Josh Hamilton, OF, to the Rangers for Edinson Volquez, SP, and Danny Herrera, RP, to the Reds. Hamilton was coming off of a 2007 campaign that showed why he was a former #1 draft pick (for the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays in 1999) but was also "under the radar" to a degree because his season was cut short by injuries on the field. His stat line of 90 games played with 19 HR, 47 RBI, .292 BA, and a great .922 OPS showed that he had tremendous upside potential if he could play anywhere near a full 162-game schedule. Volquez, conversely, was an unheralded prospect who lost his control so badly during the 2007 season for Texas that the team demoted him all the way to their Single A affiliate to "shock" him back into form. Nobody denied Volquez's "electricity" with a blazing fastball and high strikeout ability, but his propensity to lose focus was his biggest detraction. Herrera, who, like Volquez, was also unheralded, made his big league debut with the Reds during the 2008 season, but, since little was known to the general public on him prior to the season, he was a steady relief pitcher with above-average strikeout ability (playing at no higher than the AA level through the 2007 season). Outsiders reviewing this trade would have probably called it pretty equal, with the possible edge given to the Rangers because of Hamilton's proven ML ability versus potential for Volquez and Herrera.

As the 2008 season unfolded, it was very clear early on that Josh Hamilton did exactly what everyone expected him to do ... except for the mainstream media who really ignored his 2007 season and didn't treat him as the "special" commodity that he really is. The more surprising thing, however, might have been that Edinson Volquez jumped from near obscurity into the national spotlight, providing the Reds with their most electrifying young pitcher since the days of Mario Soto in the 1980's. Actually, the Volquez-Soto comparisons were quite evident for their style of pitching, ethnic origin (both are from the Dominican Republic), and ability to strike out opposing batters. For a very quick history lesson on Soto, check out this link (if you would like to know more about one of the potential greats whose career ended too soon). Since I don't intend for this entire entry to be a Hamilton-Volquez "love session", let's cut to the final numbers on these two gems (stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com):
Josh Hamilton:
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
2008 27 TEX AL 156 624 98 190 35 5 32 130 9 1 64 126 .304 .371 .530 136 331 0 9 9 7 8
Edinson Volquez:
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
2008 24 CIN NL 17 6 33 32 0 0 1 0 196.0 167 82 70 14 93 206 14 10 838 5 1 3.21 4.51 140 1.327

The jury is still out for Herrera, but, at this point, if both Hamilton and Volquez continue to produce like 2008 in future seasons, historians will probably call this trade one of the best win-win trades of all time. Amazing what a change of scenery can do for a player in a "funk" like Volquez was.

Moving on to some of the rookie class, the Reds also produced two of the best in the business with 1B Joey Votto and OF Jay Bruce. Votto seriously contended for NL ROY, losing the battle to higher-profile C Geovany Soto of the Chicago Cubs, but, in terms of overall value provided to a team, Votto's presence in the Cincinnati lineup will likely produce greater long-term dividends than Soto will for the Cubs (given the typical high turnover rate for catchers). I say this in no way to diminish Soto's ability, but I am a big believer that Joey Votto is flying way under the radar for most of the national pundits to take him seriously enough (except for Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News). Jay Bruce might as well have been labeled the "best thing since sliced bread" since we've been hearing about him for multiple years now. This year marked his much-anticipated arrival into the Big Show, and he did not disappoint right out of the gate. After putting up some unworldly numbers with HR and BA in his first few weeks back in June, he cooled considerably but still put up a very respectable season in his less-than-fulltime status. Thankfully, the Reds realized that Corey Patterson wasn't the future by June ... and clearing the way for Bruce with some additional trades (notably of the two biggest names on the team in Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn) made the most sense financially and directionally as Chris Dickerson, a later-season call-up (and far more unheralded), filled an OF spot extremely well along with genius pick-up Jerry Hairston Jr. (who achieved far beyond expectations).

Rookies beyond the Reds contributed in immeasurable ways, notably the aforementioned Geovanny Soto (as NL ROY) for the Chicago Cubs as well as AL Rookie of the Year (the near-runaway choice) Evan Longoria (not to be confused for the gorgeous EVA Longoria (now Parker), who is in no way related to the third baseman. The Tampa Bay Rays, sans their "Devil" for the first time in franchise history during the 2008 season, were baseball's ultimate "feel-good" story. Longoria certainly contributed to the offensive success of that team, not to mention a solid pitching rotation (anchored by young studs like Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza) that carried the dramatic turnaround into a World Series berth. While the story didn't end in the ultimate "happy ending" that many (including yours truly) would have liked to see, it wasn't hard to root for such a team of underdogs, particularly in their excellent ALCS defeat of the heavily-favored (by national media, primarily) Boston Red Sox (defending World Series Champions from 2007).

Ultimately, the season was defined by teams with somewhat lower expectations to really win it all, most notably the team that actually did: the Philadelphia Phillies. Philly is, and almost always has been, most known in the professional baseball world as the losingest team of all-time. No team (in their long and storied franchise history) has lost more ballgames than the Phillies team in Philadelphia. While those Cubs in Chicago may have become known as "lovable losers" for their long suffering as non-contenders and lack of World Series appearances, the Phillies never fared much better. In fact, their season records and lack of playoff appearances would indicate they fared far worse. Up until the 2008 season, the franchise notched only ONE (1) World Series title, the 1980 club featuring Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt and Steve Carlton along with veteran (should be HOF'er) Peter Edward Rose (why the Reds let him go I'll never know) and a cast of characters that surprised baseball with an unexpected championship. The Phillies would appear again in the World Series in 1993, a great series against the defending champion (1992) Toronto Blue Jays, but, as usual, they fell a little bit short as those Jay notched back-to-back titles. As luck and timing would have it, the 2008 version of the Phillies was perhaps an unremarkable one with a mix of components as good as any other team in baseball.

What defined the 2008 Philly squad as MLB's best? The answer is not as simple as one player, but there were a handful that certainly made it possible. Start on the offensive side, and you need look no further than superstar 1B Ryan Howard, baseball's most prolific homerun hitter. Howard may not have a glitzy batting average, but he gets on base, drives in runs, and hits the longball with such relative ease (as a big man should) that he is as good as it gets for a "matinee idol" in MLB. The even better stories, in this author's opinion, come from the pitching staff, where starter Cole Hamels and closer Brad Lidge made for a lights-out combination throughout the playoffs. Hamels has been labeled a "star in waiting" for his uncanny ability to strike out batters despite not having particularly overpowering stuff. Lidge, on the other hand, was the fallen star, a multi-time All Star for the Houston Astros who was cast aside after his own playoff meltdown and eventual demotion from the closer role only a few short seasons ago. Lidge's dominance, and absolute perfection in converting EVERY save opportunity, made him the undeniable Comeback Player of the Year in all of baseball. Most had written him off, but the change in venue that Philadelphia provided (surprisingly, given its typical fan dissatisfaction with poor-performing teams / players) was just what the doctor ordered. Having the reigning NL MVP as well (Jimmy Rollins, who actually had a lackluster season and a fallout with the local media and fanbase) along with outfield slugger Pat Burrell (who appears to be headed out of town in 2009 as a free agent) certainly helped make Philly the champion in 2008.

I would be remiss not the highlight the big names that changed teams via trades during the 2008 season (particularly since I dangled that carrot for all of you when this article began). Most notably, the aforementioned Cincinnati pair of Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn were let go by the Reds for seemingly peanuts (mostly in the effort to dump salary heading into 2009) with a small set of prospects (including a possible change-of-venue candidate in Micah Owings, pitcher extraordinaire more known for his excellent hitting ability) to help offset the talent / starpower void that both Griffey and Dunn possessed. Fans certainly had mixed feelings watching hometown kid Junior head to the Chicago White Sox for realistically next to nothing in return, but, unfortunately, watching Griffey flounder offensively and defensively in Chicago was a clear reminder that "The Kid" has seen better days. Retirement seems most certainly imminent for one of baseball's all-time greats, when his once-great franchise (Seattle Mariners) hasn't even offered to bring him back in free agency so far. Dunn provides the most polarizing character the city of Cincinnati has seen in some time. He was far from beloved, like the "Mayor" Sean Casey was (and to some extent still is). Dunn was appreciated, much like Philly's Ryan Howard, for driving the ball to all fields (usually right field) with prolific ability. His propensity to strike out combined with atrocious defense, however, labeled Dunn as "good but not great", lazy, and a wannabe talent whose potential would probably never be reached. Without question, Dunn's ability to hit homers is second to almost nobody (except Howard and probably Yankee slugger Alex Rodriguez), but very few people outside of Cincinnati respect, or even seem to want, Adam Dunn. The Arizona Diamondbacks got a good rental player down the stretch for their own playoff bid, but even they ultimately fell short to the division champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who made the much, much bigger splash in landing Manny Ramirez in what may have been baseball's biggest pre-non-waiver-trading deadline in July. Man-Ram was everything LA could have wanted (minus the "Manny being Manny" nonsense we've all come to know), but the pieces the other two teams involved (notably those Boston Red Sox and the also-ran Pittsburgh Pirates) received might have been more valuable long-term than what the Dodgers got for only the last couple of months of the season. The Red Sox picked up arguably one of baseball's best "undiscovered" talents in OF Jason Bay. Bay's regular All Star Game appearances from typically poor-performing Pirate teams should have been a clue that he was special, and the Red Sox (with savvy GM Theo Epstein) knew exactly what they lost (Manny) for what they gained (Bay). The Pirates' moves were clearly what the 'Burgh has come to expect in recent years, but, as a very similar small-market city, I feel their fans' pain. I would love to see MLB return to the era when both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh were competitive teams, an era last seen prominently during the 1970s for the Big Red Machine and the 'We Are Family' clubs that produced some of the best talent baseball has ever seen. However, that is a different subject for a different day. The two most prominent names that floated on the "trade bait" list were clearly reigning AL Cy Young C.C. Sabathia and rising star Mark Teixeira. CC and Tex were valuable cogs for the teams that received them (the Brewers and Angels, respectively) in making runs into the playoffs, but even the Sabathia workhorse wasn't enough for the Brew Crew to overcome the Phillies in the NLDS and Teixeira's role on the Angels mattered little when the Red Sox shot right past them in the ALDS.

What does 2009 hold for baseball's best and brightest? We are all pretty certain of only ONE THING: the New York Yankees will have the largest payroll by a country mile over ANY other team, period. When you already have two of the biggest salaries for superstars A Rod and Derek Jeter on the payroll, you think that maybe, just maybe, you might reign in spending just a little. However, the month of December 2008 showed that not only was the Steinbrenner family willing to spend money, they were willing to spend MORE money. Signing free agents Sabathia and Teixeira was a clear and indelible sign that the Yankees WANT to win again in 2009. However, as the Rays and Phillies, among others, showed in 2008, money alone doesn't BUY or WIN a championship. The Rays had the lowest payroll and per player spending of any team in all of baseball ... one of the brightest indicators that "moneyball" (made famous by GM Billy Beane in Oakland) does actually work.

I like to close a year with a positive outlook that my team can actually win it all next year, something I haven't been able to say since the 1990 season. Winning the NL Central is probably going to be an uphill battle, however, with the Chicago Cubs probably still the biggest obstacle to that goal. Making the NL Wild Card as a "backup" option isn't completely far-fetched, though, given that Milwaukee won't be the same without Sabathia and the other league teams (Houston, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis) don't look nearly as dangerous as they have in some prior seasons. A lot can change before Opening Day 2009 ... and it probably will. I look forward to writing that 2009 Preview by the time Spring Training rolls around and doing (hopefully) a team-by-team review of who's where to start the season. I might even roll out my "Fearless Predictions" on divisional champs as well, but, for now, Happy New Year one and all. Baseball season cannot come soon enough.

Thanksgiving "Turkeys" ... Fit to Be Stuffed

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:22:00 +0000

We as Americans have so much for which to be thankful. We live in a society that encourages and provides rights to many freedoms that we take for granted but which are not available or even punishable in so many other countries. Freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and freedom of the press are but a few of those true freedoms which without we wouldn't function nearly as well as a nation. With the freedom of speech, we get to argue, complain, and debate about topics as trivial, in the grand scheme of things, as sports. Isn't this a great country?!?

In the spirit of my own personal freedom to debate the merit of achievements attained by certain athletic teams or particular athletes in a variety of sports, I decided that this Thanksgiving I would single out the "accomplishments" of those turkeys whose actions in 2008 made us wonder why they perform in the respective sports that they do. Here is my list, in no particular order across the sporting spectrum, of those noteworthy individuals / teams:

1) Michael Vick - It has been over a year since the allegations, indictment, and eventual conviction of the once-star quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons has come to pass. Why do we still care about a true turkey of the gridiron? We still see his name and face in the news even now because he was one of the "faces" of the NFL. What an embarrassment ... his behavior even helped lead to a league crackdown on miscreants, but have things really changed that much in the National Felony League? Vick is still the poster child for what is wrong when an athlete believes he is above the law, even though his imprisonment now proves otherwise. Now, the pundits await his release from prison … and who will sign him when next season rolls around?!? Who cares … once a turkey, always a turkey. He’s not contrite, and he wasn’t that good as a QB anyway … he was a glorified running back in a QB role. The lack of passing stats speak for themselves. NEXT!

2) Barry Bonds … Roger Clemens … etc. - A group designation befitting the caliber of once-great players who most likely will be remembered, unfortunately, for only one thing now: steroids. Bonds and Clemens, in particular, were arguably the two most dominant individuals in their respective roles of position player and starting pitcher. The MVP awards for Bonds and the Cy Young awards for Clemens lose a lot of their luster in the glaring spotlight of the drug scandal that Major League Baseball allowed to happen. Actually, MLB itself is probably the biggest turkey in this whole mess for not cracking down on the behavior sooner. Oh, wait … that’s right … top brass (like commissioner Bud Selig) liked it when two abusers (Mark McGwire and (not as clearly) Sammy Sosa) pushed their prolific home run battle into the national spotlight for baseball. Times were good back then … not so much now. Look at homer totals in recent years and tell me that every power statistic from around the mid-1990’s until early this decade (probably until 2002 or 2003) aren’t questionable. Yes, there are still individuals with 50+ HR seasons … but at least they’re the exception now and not the rule (Alex Rodriguez notwithstanding).

3) A-Rod - Speaking of the “illustrious” third baseman of the New York Yankees, what a crappy year it was to be him. His offensive production was still solid but notably off from what we have come to expect from the slugger in recent years. His 104 runs scored were the lowest from him in over a decade, his 35 homers were respectable but well off the 54 from 2007, and the 103 RBI were also the lowest in over a decade. Of course, contributing to those declines was certainly playing in only 138 games of the 162-game schedule, roughly 20 fewer than his average of recent years. However, A-Rod is not making my list for what he has done on the field … his off-the-field behavior is the issue. If the details of his romantic relationship with Madonna (yes, that one) weren’t enough, he divorced his wife (or she dumped him, it doesn’t really matter) and plans to spend his Thanksgiving with the aging Material Girl somewhere away from his actual family and friends. Thanks, deadbeat Dad, say the Rodriguez children … but they’re probably getting some great Christmas gifts to make up for papa’s absence this year.

[to be continued, if time permits]

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Ramblings of a Reds Fan: MLB Journal (Cincinnati)
Rentz Racing Report: NASCAR News and Views
Ramblings of Rentz: Lot D Edition (Cincinnati's 1530 Homer - The Sports Animal)

Is This Series Over Already? Signs Point to YES

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:43:00 +0000

I have never been one to write off a team before a series is over, but the Philadelphia Phillies look to have taken control of their series with the Tampa Bay Rays. After "ageless wonder" Jamie Moyer pulled out the victory (or at least pitched well enough to get his team a win) in Game 3, the series took a turn for Philly. Head-to-head matchups would have favored any game for Philly with Cole Hamels (who won Game 1 convincingly), most for Tampa with James Shields (who held the Phillies scoreless in Game 2), and, at least going in, most for Tampa with Matt Garza. Garza did NOT fare well in Game 3, though. I would have called it a "toss-up" with Joe Blanton in Game 4, but Andy Sonnanstine is a roller-coaster variety starter who hit a low with his Sunday night start.

With Hamels again starting in tonight's critical Game 5, the Rays had better hope to get to him early. Scott Kazmir, the Game 1 opponent and tonight's rematch starter, shows little hope of being the tide-turner in this one. His Game 1 effort was respectable (three runs in six innings), but Hamels was better (two runs in seven innings). If Hamels turns over a lead to the Philly bullpen, I think this series is over tonight in five games. Kazmir needs an effort like the one he turned in in Game 5 of the ALCS, when he held the Sox scoreless over six innings ... but then better hope his bullpen returns to the form it had in the games OTHER than that one (when the Sox came back to win) or the one last night (where the Phillies torched Rays' pitching for 10 runs, eight earned, with five allowed in three innings by the 'pen).

If any team could pull off a miracle, it just might be these Rays. They weren't expected to win the AL East ... but they did. They weren't expected to beat the Red Sox in the ALCS (especially after the Sox forced a Game 7) ... but they did. Now, they aren't expected to win three straight, including tonight's game at Philadelphia followed by two at home, to pull out the series ... but can they?

Rays, your only chance to claim victory in this series starts tonight - simply put, you must beat Cole Hamels. IF you defeat Hamels in Game 5, you won't have to face him again in the series. Then, you will see Brett Myers again in a Game 6 (facing your new postseason "ace" in Shields) followed, likely, by Moyer (who, seriously, are you going to not figure out his soft-tossing style by a Game 7?) in a finale. The Phillies could throw you a curve by bringing Blanton back on short rest instead of Moyer in Game 7 (assuming you make it that far), but I like your chances with (presuming a return to form from) Garza. Those last two games are simply moot if Kazmir doesn't come out blazing tonight. For good measure, there is one *minor* element that you, the Rays, need to have a chance as well - OFFENSE.

What has happened to B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Pena, to name but a few key elements of the Rays' offense? If the middle of the lineup cannot produce, I cannot see Akinori Iwamura, Carl Crawford, Dioner Navarro, et. al. making up the difference. It's not to say that they can't, but those top three guys have got to produce and produce NOW.

Philadelphia - your only key to winning is to keep doing exactly what you're doing. Keep dominating with the starting pitching, stifling bullpen, and, oh yes, the high-powered offense that I expected to see this postseason. Ryan Howard picked a good time to "return" to the lineup in a productive manner.

Is this series over already? Yes, the signs do point to "yes", but stranger things have happened.

Postscript section for Fantasy followers out there... I was burned by my mostly Tampa offensive lineup for Game 4 (as well as Game 3, really), but I don't have the trades to hope to change things much for Game 5 or the rest of this series. For those in similar situtations, hope the Rays can survive this game to get back home, where the home field (and warmth of an indoor environment) will probably "heat up" those cold bats as well. If you're lucky enough to have (or have picked up) Ryan Howard by Game 3, you are finally paying dividends. Many probably jumped on Howard for Game 4 (after seeing the previous performance) and reaped the rewards. I think that Cole Hamels is a no-brainer starter pick in Game 5 (even though I have to hope for a no-decision if I hope to get more series points beyond tonight). Even though my own roster has Rays' bullpen members, they look best to avoid at least until proven once again reliable.

Let The Games Begin ... World Series Preview: Rays / Phillies

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 20:45:00 +0000

Today, Wednesday, October 22nd, is the first day of the 2008 World Series. I am truly excited about watching two teams with historically losing records (the Phillies for most of their long franchise history (most losses of any team) and the Rays in every year of their shorter existence until this one) battle it out for baseball supremacy this season. While I may be in the national viewing minority (likely the case with smaller market Tampa / St. Pete and shrinking market Philadelphia), the case could be made for a potentially balanced matchup of these two teams. It may not be the Red Sox / Dodgers matchup that TV executives likely wanted, but this could be a very watchable series.

My predictions leading up to this series have mostly been wrong, so I won't even attempt to tell you who I think is going to win and in how many games. I will guess that this one probably goes six or seven games, though, based on pitching balance of the squads. Cole Hamels is probably the hottest starting pitcher on either team, and Matt Garza is probably the next best after him (and both won their respective LCS MVP titles).

Hamels could pitch up to three games in this series, while Garza is not up until Game 3 (with staff "ace" Scott Kazmir the Rays starter for Game 1). I have liked Kazmir historically, but the second half of his season has not been pretty at all (including most of this postseason). Arguably, James Shields or Garza should be facing Hamels in Game 1 (imho), but Garza pitched on Sunday and isn't an option on only two days rest. Shields could be (having pitched Saturday), but three days rest is probably not as good as full four-day rest. All of the Phillies' players should be well-rested ... but may also be rusty with the week-long layoff since last Wednesday.

Offensively, the season stats would favor Philadelphia, one of the best offensive clubs in all of baseball. Philly scored the second-most runs in the NL (behind only the Cubs and tied with the Mets) and ranked in a tie for eigth in the ML. Tampa Bay was a steady producer as well but well behind most of the offense-driven AL (in ninth) and in 13th overall. Philly also was the majors' leader in HR.

What Tampa Bay may lack in offense (which isn't all that much, really) it offsets with the third-best pitching in baseball (3.82 ERA, ranking second in the AL behind only Toronto), which is very impressive, again, in the more offense-driven league. Philadelphia is no slouch here, either, with a robust 3.88 ERA, ranking close behind at sixth overall.

As those financial shows on TV often do, I will provide full disclosure here as well. I don't have any vested interest in either team, although my Postseason Fantasy Baseball squad (which I am playing here at TSN) is driven mostly by Tampa offense (such as Upton and Longoria) and Philly pitching (Hamels and Lidge) as well as some crossover on both teams (such as Shane Victorino and Matt Garza). I loaded one of my teams with almost the entire Tampa offensive lineup (from Navarro to Iwamura to Upton to Longoria to Aybar, etc.). It should be interesting, once again, no matter what happens. I would love to see the small-market Tampa squad (29th of 30 teams) make it all the way to give hope to all of our other small-market teams around the country.

Cubs Going Down in Flames ... and Other 2008 Baseball Playoff Observations

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 19:15:00 +0000

I can now confirm what I subsconsciously knew when I wrote my "useless" predictions about the baseball playoffs only a short few days ago: most prognostications are just a random chance guess. An entry headline where "Cubs Going Down in Flames" doesn't begin to tell someone how painful it has been to watch the NL's best regular-season team failing to deliver by any measure so far in the postseason.

One may want to blame all of this on a "curse", but the manner in which the Chicago north side team played on Wednesday and Thursday can most certainly be called "ugly". There is no doubt about that. Their pitching has been poor (7+ runs in each game), they haven't shown any offensive muscle (2 and 3 runs, respectively), and the defense has been uncharacteristically bad (1 error in Game 1 followed by 4! in Game 2). When starter Carlos Zambrano, the "ace" of the staff", gives up seven runs but only three are earned thanks to two miscues in one half inning alone, you know the team is self-destructing. Realistically, the Cubs have dug themselves into a hole from which recovery is not probable. Possible, yes, but not likely. The next game will feature the Cubs' "next best" starter in Rich Harden, who gives them some hope, but then a Game 4, if there is one, would likely feature the Dodgers' Derek Lowe, who shut them down in Game 1. Of course, both games are being playing on the road, away from the "Friendly Confines" and in Chavez Ravine (i.e. Dodger Stadium). The sweep that I projected was not supposed to happen like this ... are the Dodgers really this good? Dodgers lead 2-0. Game 3 in LA on Saturday.

Around the rest of playoff action ...

How about those Rays? Evan Longoria, rookie extraordinaire, provided much of the offense (and possibly en route to a series MVP) with two homers and three RBI. The Rays bullpen, not suprisingly, was stellar in Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell, both notching two K in their appearances. Dan Wheeler made one mistake (homer to Paul Konerko) but was otherwise in control in recording the save. The White Sox offensively could have kept pace but stranded 11 runners on base. The top of the seventh inning was really the critical moment, as starter James Shields walked Alexi Ramirez and then hit A.J. Pierzynski with a pitch to load the bases (after Konerko had reached base earlier with a single). Balfour came in and struck out the only two batters he faced - Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera - to escape unscathed and preserve the lead. Keep an eye on Tampa the rest of the way. Rays lead 1-0. Game 2 Friday in Tampa.

CC Sabathia has officially run out of gas. The fatigue factor of pitching so many innings with so few days rest appears to have finally caught the big guy. Couple that with Philadelphia starter Brett Myers walking in a run in the first (avoiding more possible damage) but then settling down to work the next five scoreless innings before surrending only a second in the seventh, his last inning. Sabathia couldn't make it out of the fourth inning, leaving with the bases loaded but rescued by reliever Mitch Stetter. The real damage against CC happened in the bottom of the second, notably where five runs scored (all of the Philly offense for the game) in a sequence that saw him walk, unexpectedly, his counterpart Myers followed by Jimmy Rollins, both with two outs. That left the bases loaded, and Sabathia made a mistake to Shane Victorino that resulted in the centerfielder's first career grand slam. Phillies lead the series 2-0 and appear easily in control heading to Milwaukee for Game 3. Game 3 Saturday in Milwaukee.

No new games played in the only other series - Angels vs Red Sox - where the home team Angels must rebound tonight behind starter Ervin Santana, who reversed a trend this season by pitching better away from "The Big A" home field than on it. Hopefully, he pulls some of his 2006 and 2007 success of home dominance to the park in Game 2. His counterpart is Dice-K (Daisuke Matsuzaka), who had an outstanding season with a sub-3.00 ERA (2.90, to be exact) and a measly .211 BAA. He faced the Angels only once this season (his first time ever) and was shelled at Fenway for seven hits and six runs in only five innings of work, one of his few season losses. Santana did not face Boston this season, making him a bit of a wild card. His last appearance against Boston was late in 2007, where he won in Boston by allowing only one run in 6 1/3 innings. Red Sox lead 1-0. Game 2 Friday in Anaheim.

My Useless Attempt at MLB Playoff Prognosticating

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 01:30:00 +0000

I preface my writing with the knowledge that my predictions (for sporting picks in general) are correct slightly better than 50% of the time. Given my invested time in watching / analyzing baseball, though, my stats are only slightly better. Last season, I managed to pick four out of the six division winners and one of the wild card teams. For whatever reason, I didn't formally declare preseason picks this season. I can honestly say here's what I probably would have picked (in hindsight) had I made those choices: NL Central - Cubs or Brewers, NL West - Diamondbacks, NL East - Mets, NL Wild Card - Brewers or Cubs; AL Central - Indians, AL West - Angels, AL East - Red Sox, AL Wild Card - Tigers. As you can see, I would have missed badly on a couple of those picks, but I still would have hit about 50% overall for the postseason (if not quite in the right spots). But, enough of my backwards-looking, forward-thinking writing ... on to the future picking.

AL Playoffs
ALDS:
Angels vs. Red Sox
I am a major fan of the baseball that Mike Scioscia's Angels play. The team scores runs in a variety of ways (particularly adept at advancing runners and scoring runners from scoring position), and their addition of Mark Teixeira only made the offense better. In no way do I belittle the accomplishments of the Red Sox, but this Angels team is as solid as they come from top to bottom. No Josh Beckett for the starting rotation (possibly only in Game 3, at best) does not bode well for the Sox. John Lackey has had his own share of ups and downs throughout the season, but he is formidable ace of the Angels staff. I'll take the Angels in 4 games, 3-1.

Rays vs. AL Central Champ (Twins or White Sox)
OK, how confident am I in what the Rays have accomplished this season? Manager Joe Maddon is a leader in the style of Scioscia in LA, no less, and has managed to keep this team afloat, and successful, despite injuries to key offensive players throughout the season. The same can also be said of other managers, but none have done it better than Maddon. This team was expected to be better, but it wasn't expected to be the AL East champion. Regardless of who the Rays play, neither the Twins nor the White Sox will match-up well with them in a series. If the Twins make it, I think they pose the better threat (the generally one-dimensional White Sox offense is simply not the same without Carlos Quentin) but still fall short. I choose the Rays in 4 games, 3-1.

ALCS:
Assuming my two previous picks come to fruition, a Rays-Angels series looks quite interesting. Similar managerial styles and similar playing abilities (more or less) make this one tough to call. I lean towards the team with more depth, and overall experience, by choosing the Angels in 6 games, 4-2. My head says the Angels, but my heart says the Rays figure out a way to overcome experience. Maybe this one even goes seven games ... I'll be watching either way.

NL Playoffs
NLDS:
Phillies vs. Brewers
On paper, this looks like a potential mismatch in many ways. The Phillies dominated the regular season series 8-1, and CC Sabathia will start Game 2 (at the earliest) after having to start Sunday's clinching finale. The rest of the Brewer starting rotation is a mess, particularly with Ben Sheets being a big question mark. Yovani Gallardo may have been a solid starter from a year ago (before injury) ... can he really be a factor now? I'll give the Brewers' heart a factor here but not enough to overcome. My pick is the Phillies in 5 games, 3-2. (which might be generous to Brewer pitching ... Phillies bullpen can be lights out)

Cubs vs. Dodgers
In a short series, LA could play Chicago tough, but I don't think Dodger pitching can stop the Cub offense. Conversely, Chicago pitching is more than up to the task of shutting down the Dodger offense (just keep pitching around Manny). I'll go slightly out on a limb here and say Cubs coast to 3-0 sweep. Zambrano might be the only real question mark I have ... Harden, Dempster, and Lilly are solid in my book.

NLCS:
Again, assuming good choices in the first round, a Cubs versus Phillies matchup poses some intrigue (and likely better ratings than the alternative ALCS, which won't get much if the Red Sox aren't in it). In a longer series, the depth of the Cubs will be even more obvious, although strong pitching (Cubs) versus strong offense (Phillies) can be counteractive ... pitching still usually wins. I'll choose to see this one go longer, but I still pick Cubs in 6 games, 4-2 to make their first World Series in over half a century (since 1945).

World Series
Making a pick this far out is even tougher, as I have to bank on my previous choices being right. A series featuring the Cubs and Angels would not be devoid of interest ... but I'm sure a Red Sox - Cubs matchup would draw gigantic ratings. The Angels are not likely to be quite the draw (if their 2002 WS ratings are an indication), but anything involving the Cubs, who draw on the same "inspiration" as the 2004 Red Sox did, will probably draw viewers. I truly believe this is it ... the year (100 years to the last time) that the Cubs win the series, in 7 games, 4-3. No team has gone longer between Championships (excluding, of course, franchises that have never won a title), so why not the Cubs and why not now?

About the Reds?!? Yes, It’s True!

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 12:35:00 +0000

I haven’t written a post about the Cincinnati Reds in a VERY long time. So long, in fact, has it been that I haven’t said anything the ENTIRE 2008 season … until now. This fact remains more than a bit contradictory given that my off-site blogs have primary subjects of NASCAR (for which I have written a few things) and baseball / MLB / Reds (which I only apologize for not writing things). Given how ugly most of this season has been, I really don’t have as much need to be forgiven as the team does.

We have come to that point in the season where the role of the Reds is spoiler. Being a “spoiler” is exactly what it means … to spoil the season(s) of contending team(s). So far, so good on that front, considering that our Redlegs took 2 out of 3 (dramatically on Sunday versus closer Kerry Wood) from the front-running Chicago Cubs and now the first game of their series in Milwaukee (again a dramatic, come-from-behind effort versus Brewers’ closer Solomon Torres) on Monday night. If this team found a way to play with this much energy all season, things certainly might have been different. But, in the same vein, I doubt they would be with the former cast of characters.

Gone are both Ken Griffey, Jr. (who was going to be gone after the season anyway) and Adam Dunn (who probably was, too), who were the respective faces of the team (as evidenced by both formerly being on team scorecards, wall signs, etc.). While I admire Junior’s career as a total, his best days are behind him. Dunn still has a decent offensive career ahead of him, but his defensive liability (as well as Griffey with his aging body) was worth abandoning to bring up some newer faces. Dunn was good for mammoth homers and a solid OBP … and not much else. Junior was surviving on legacy (as further evidenced by his lack of playing time for the White Sox).

How have the Reds been producing lately? Well, the new “faces” of the team are clearly Joey Votto, who has been on fire of late, and Jay Bruce, who has had the “next great thing” label for a while now. Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of the whole season has been the quality starting pitching. Edinson Volquez goes without saying, with his 17 wins to date and anchoring the staff. Aaron Harang has been the unpleasant surprise, never quite recovering after his short-rest relief appearance in San Diego … even he has looked more like his old self in recent starts (and has been burdened with nearly the worst run support in the league). Bronson Arroyo has been steady and picked it up notably in the second-half of the season … finally looking like a smart decision on that contract extension. Johnny Cueto has shown the makings of a potential excellent starter next season and beyond. The fifth-starter slot still has question marks around it, but folks like surprising Ramon Ramirez or even a mentally refreshed Homer Bailey (our former “sliced bread” ace) might do nicely in 2009.

There appears to be a core to work around here. Votto and Bruce are no-brainer choices, as is my personal favorite Brandon Phillips, who deserves far more credit for his defensive abilities at second baseman than national coverage usually gives him. Jerry Hairston Jr. may or may not be in the plans for starting next year, but his versatility (much like injured fan favorite Ryan Freel) is hard to ignore. Chris Dickerson, who came with little fanfare to fill Dunn’s absence, has been nothing short of excellent to start his MLB career. The aforementioned pitching staff is finally a strength after years of being a liability. Third base and shortstop are still questionable spots, with the streaky Edwin Encarnacion who may or may not be part of the future plans and Jeff Keppinger who is a dependable, but average, choice both offensively and defensively. Catcher remains a weak position for the team, although defensively former backstop David Ross (since released) seemed more successful at throwing runners out. Ryan Hannigan may or may be the future choice (leaning towards not), but he, too, has been dependable of late. Team deadweight, like Corey Patterson and Paul Bako, just need to be let go come season’s end.

I would much rather be writing about a postseason run by my Reds, but at least I feel reason enough to be optimistic about next season not to write them off completely. Of course, I say that every year … we just haven’t seen a winner since the beginning of the century (sounds more dramatic than just the decade).

Reds – have fun being spoilers for all of those “actual” contenders down the stretch. At least give them something to think about … for next year.

Friday the 13th: A Perfect Day for a Move

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 16:32:00 +0000

Ah, the superstitious day of Friday the 13th conjures up images of bad luck, movie horror, and countless potential for mayhem.

As of this date, June 13, 2008, which happens to be a Friday, this blog (as well as its counterpart blogs) have moved from the former home of my website (ClubhouseConnection.net, which is now inactive) to Blogspot, which was where they were generated anyway. Hopefully, no bad luck will follow this move, but I hope any former readers are fortunate enough to find their way here. I figure some new content will at least get Google to redirect the old links to these new locations.

There isn't a whole lot new I want to say immediately, especially since I have written anything in eons. When over a year passes (give or take) between posts, you are doing a poor job as a blogger. Given that some bloggers write many times daily, that fact would make me a big slacker.

Since blogging doesn't pay the bills (yet ... or probably ever), look for something slightly more frequent (hopefully) in the future.

Later all...

Take Me Out to a Ballgame: Baseball Musings v1.0

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 23:10:00 +0000

Take me out to the ballgame, take me out with the crowd.
Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack, I don't care if I never get back.

The old song rings in ballparks all across the country during the baseball season. We take our seventh inning stretch and chant along with the lyrics. There is something cathartic about going to baseball games, but the crowd and the atmosphere play a big part in the experience.

Since the season is still young and my own writing sparse, I haven't yet had a chance to attend any games in person this year. I actually could have gone to any of the games in my hometown Reds' first homestand (from Wednesday, 4/4, through Sunday, 4/8 ), but braving the weather elements of sub-40 degree days to watch baseball in April wasn't my preference. The only good weather day happened to be Opening Day, with its 80 degree temp and sunshine, but I didn't bother to buy a ticket and stayed at work instead. Since my goal isn't really to talk about the weather in this writing (atlhough it has been a factor in this early baseball season), my musings instead are about the standings across the divisions of MLB and what can be gleened (if anything) so far.

As an editorial note, I try to be humorous at times without taking this too seriously. I might occasionally try to spark some response, so don't be alarmed at my sometimes pointed critcisms / opinions. Readers of any of my past work will know what I mean ... new readers will understand. Considering how long it was between writings, even the "old" readers are new again anyway. Enjoy...

AL East:
Most of the pundits like to believe that the baseball world revolves around this division. Boston this, New York that. Sure, the Red Sox and the Yankees spend a lot of money every year to beat each other up as well as their divisional foes, but, how many times has this division produced the World Series champion in the past six years? Once - Boston in 2004. Respectively, the other divisions have been represented equally in the other years with the NL Central (Cardinals in 2006), Al Central (White Sox in 2005), NL East (Marlins in 2003), AL West (Angels in 2002), and NL West (Diamondbacks in 2001) each getting a title. The preceding five years tell the story of why this division is the focal point, though, with Yankees' titles in four of the five (1996, 1998-2000). The Yankees have been baseball's winningest team for a very long time, and with 26 titles and counting, it is hard to imagine any team catching them for a very long time, if ever. The next closest team is the NL's best in the Cardinals with their 10 titles (only the second team to reach double digits with last season's triumph).

Are the Yankees still the team to beat? It is hard to imagine they won't contend again, considering they haven't missed the post-season since divisional series play began in 1995 with the addition of the wild card spot. This is a team that can and will score runs, but their starting rotation is definitely suspect. It is hard to believe that Carl Pavano is the anchor of the staff with the best days of both Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte probably behind them. The Red Sox are arguably the division's best, with an aging Curt Schilling anchoring along with a strong Josh Beckett and hailed newcomer Daisuke Matsuzaka (aka Dice K). I can see this one as a Boston-NY 1-2 finish, possibly with the Blue Jays as a battler for that 2 spot.

The "oh, by the way" ... the Blue Jays have the very early lead with a 5-3 record over the two .500 teams (4-4) of the division: the Red Sox and the Yankees. The Red Sox biggest struggle so far has been scoring runs (only 33 in eight games, compared to 52 each for the Yanks and Jays).

AL Central:
This division seems to be up for grabs by multiple contenders, with only the Royals seemingly out of contention from day one. The White Sox are probably the next-least-likely to be the winner of the division with seemingly enough talent offensively but lacking the pitching depth to win. It seems like the Tigers, Indians, and Twins could all see it through to the end, but Minnesota will probably not be the same without Francisco Liriano in the rotation. It's 50-50 for me in choosing Detroit or Cleveland (I like both of them as regional AL favorites), but Detroit has last year's experience to build upon. Cleveland is going to be tough and score lots of runs (in what looks like a strong offense) ... will their pitching carry them through? I'll go with the Tigers for the division and the Indians to take the AL Wild Card. Sorry, Yankees ... this won't be your year. (fingers crossed ;-) )

In early returns, the Tigers and Twins have 5-3 records in leading the division while the Indians are close behind at 3-2, only having played five games with their snow-out series at home.

AL West:
I guess the Angels are a consensus pick in the division, and while I don't always go with a consensus choice, I think I will with this team. I think the Angels' manager, Mike Scioscia, is one of baseball's best, and the rest of the division just isn't strong enough to push them. My knowledge of the division is probably weakest to boot, so I'll stick with what little I do know. Moving on...

NL East:
The New York Mets so dominated this division last season that it's hard not to go for them again. The Phillies look to be a contender up to the task of knocking the Mets off the throne, but then I am thrown a conundrum with the quick start of the Braves. While I normally would make a prediction before the season and wouldn't have seen them play, Atlanta has had baseball's hottest start. Contrarily, Philadelphia has started very poorly (2-8 versus Atlanta's 7-1 mark). It's anybody's guess what will happen from here, but I will stick with the Mets (5-3 starting mark) and their pitching as the difference-maker in the division.

NL Central:
The most parity probably exists in the Central, and as much as I don't like to admit it, only one team will probably make the playoffs from here. The West looks too good to me this year to only send one team while this division will probably send one near the .500 mark again. The Cardinals are probably the default choice as defending champ, although the Brewers seem to be getting a lot of attention. I still have a spot in my heart for the Reds, even though the experts widely pan them. I expect them to do better than the consensus but probably not well enough to win the division. I will go with St. Louis for lack of a better choice.

At this point, parity is prevailing -- three teams are tied at the top with 5-4 marks: Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. Even the bottom teams have at least three wins (Chicago and Houston) with Pittsburgh in the middle.

NL West:
I like the Diamondbacks in this one, with some power pitching and enough offense to carry the day. The Dodgers probably have baseball's best rotation top to bottom, so picking them to end up in either the 1 or 2 spot here seems probable. San Diego could still surprise, but I don't know if they have enough offense. All three teams have started off on the right foot, with the D'backs at 7-3 and leading and both LA and SD close behind at 6-3.

Reds Remain Contenders; Division, Wild Card in Reach

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 15:05:00 +0000

After a phenomenal season start that saw the Cincinnati Reds post a franchise-best month of April for wins (17-8), the succeeding months proved to be a dose of reality. May was a shock to the system, seeing the team post 12 wins versus 16 losses in bringing the overall record closer to .500. Despite the critics that seemed to be surfacing after May, June was tolerable, if not respectable, at 15-12, raising the overall record back to eight (8) games over the .500 mark by the start of July.

The record at the start of today (7/23/2006) is 52-46, six games over .500 and four games behind frontrunner St. Louis in the NL Central. The Reds are the NL leaders for the one NL Wild Card spot, 1 1/2 games ahead of a few contenders (Diamondbacks and Padres from the NL West) as well as familiar names across the league (Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros) who are all within six games of the Reds for that spot. Interestingly, the Braves have been surging despite a horrible season start to put themselves into contention once again, despite being a distant second to the NL East-leading Mets (with the NL's best record at 59-38).

July has been the good, the bad, and the ugly for this ballclub. The good: eight (8) wins in the month, seven (7) since the All-Star break, and looking for their second home series sweep versus the Brewers this Sunday (the other was a four-game sweep over the Rockies last weekend). The bad: six straight losses to start July, a 1-8 record before the break in the month, and a trade that saw two offensive weapons (Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez) traded away for relief pitching. The ugly: the return on that Kearns-Lopez trade with the Washington Nationals hasn't yielded much, particularly with reliever Gary Majewski blowing leads and losing games since arriving with the club.

The better? Eddie Guardado has been a welcome presence in an easy trade from the Seattle Mariners that has seen "Everyday Eddie" return to his familiar role of closer. The team needed Guardado more than anybody, and the added presence of Bill Bray (a hard-throwing lefty) and Royce Clayton (a veteran shortstop) from that same Nationals-Reds trade has been a net positive. This team has had many come-from-behind wins, with a decent number from bad relief pitching performances, but the difference now is the late innings have seen the bullpen hold more scores than let things get out of hand.

My "prognostication" for the club is that the playoffs are still within reach, and the upcoming series versus division rivals Houston and Milwaukee could seal the deal. With a critical St. Louis series looming in early August, the club has an "easier" September within reach if it can survive the remainder of July on the road and then a tougher schedule with NL West rivals throughout August at home. The improved performance at home is certainly a breath of fresh air for loyal fans who have been attending these many home games to date and seen the Reds post a better road record than a home record.

Stay tuned, Reds fans ... this ride isn't over yet!

A Reality Check ... Did Reds Really "Lose" In Today's Blockbuster Trade?!?

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Thu, 13 Jul 2006 22:46:00 +0000

OK, I have scanned over a number of comments from my fellow fans so far, and I have seen very few which were positive in favor of the Cincinnati Reds getting the better part of this deal. As a lifelong Reds fan, I can say that I completely support any move at this stage of the season that strengthens the team's bullpen and delivers some hope to make a run for the playoffs. Why? Let's break it down...

Austin Kearns: Unquestionably, he is the most talented player involved in this trade. Kearns has been playing solid defense, has begun to learn to hit for average, and has more than enough power to be a threat in any team's lineup. I like Kearns personally, but, at the same time, his upside potential is limited to his ability to make contact. Austin swings for the fences (much like his counterpart Adam Dunn) but doesn't always reach his destination. It is harder for me to see Kearns go, but we have to give up something to get something.

Felipe Lopez: Lopez may have been the Reds' All-Star of 2005, but he has not been that same player this year. Barry Larkin, he is not. What Lopez had done well last season was hit for average and power as well as showcase awesome speed and good defensive range. What Felipe has failed to do this season is hit for as much power, strikeout more often (with a lower BA), and commit stupid errors at critical points in games. Whether his fielding ultimately cost his job remains to be seen, but it certainly did not help his cause.

Ryan Wagner: I thought Wagner was the closer in the wings when he made the team last season, but he has languished in AAA all season this year and failed to prove his ability to make the MLB club full-time with a variety of pitches. He has plenty of pop (95-99 mph on the gun), but his control needs work. He and Kearns may be the two we may regret down the road, while Lopez may ultimately be forgettable (imho).

So, for our three players (two ML'ers and one in AAA) we receive five players (indicating more players to offset the potential talent lost). I cannot say I am expert at our team's acquisitions, but here is my take on each ...

Gary Majewski: 26 yo righty with ML career with the Expos / Nationals. He does not appear to be overpowering, but his ERA was close to team-best for Washington last season (2.93) and one of the best this season (3.5, despite a bad outing (3 runs in 1/3 inning on Sunday) that raised it nearly 0.5 (from 3.11 to 3.5. Given the Reds have a bullpen ERA over 5.00 (at 5.16 before Thursday), Majewski is a net help immediately.

Bill Bray: Former 1st round pick (like Ryan Wagner, same draft) with upside potential and nice speed on the fastball. The 23 yo southpaw looks like the diamond in the rough for the Reds and is a key pitching prospect / talent from the Nationals' organization.

Royce Clayton: Almost anybody who follows baseball knows about Clayton. Clayton's strength is more about his defense than his batting, but, offensively, his best years may be behind him. Clearly a journeyman shortstop, he can still play everyday at the age of 36, but even his defense has weakened a bit with 11 errors this season to date. His best defensive seasons were with the Chicago White Sox in 2001 and 2002 with .988 and .989 FP%, respectively, as well as under 10 errors in each year (7 and 5, respectively). Clayton can be a fair sub for Lopez on a day-to-day basis if not platooning with Rich Aurilia and/or Ryan Freel around the infield, including Juan Castro and Brandon Phillips, who both can play at SS as well.

Brendan Harris: The bench player / pinch hitter should be a help for the infield with solid defensive skills as well as the ability to deliver a pinch hit in the clutch. Harris is only turning 26 yo in August, so I think his career potential has upside at this juncture. The Reds should feel comfortable with Harris as a late-inning defensive sub and/or another bat off the bench. But, the other Reds' players affected include ...

Ryan Freel: Freel may get a chance to be more of an everyday player with Kearns or Lopez around, but he will continue to find his niche here no matter what. His speed is impressive, and his defensive skills at a variety of positions make him a versatile, and valuable, utilityman.

Chris Denorfia: With the absence of Austin Kearns, Denorfia moves up from AAA to have an opportunity to take over RF full-time. His first audition earlier this season showed some of his worth, before being sent back to AAA in mid-May. He had four hits in only eight AB (.500) with seven game appearances on the season. GM Wayne Krivsky is very keen on Denorfia as an everyday player, and, in turning 26 on Saturday this week, Denorfia is ready to prove himself as an everyday player.

All in all, the bullpen of the Reds needed the most help, so having both Majewski and Bray should be a net benefit to a club that is offense-heavy and pitching-weak. Kearns will be missed for his solid and consistent play (and likely All-Star future) while Lopez will be missed for having failed to deliver what "could have been" in carrying on the tradition of Reds at SS with Concepcion and Larkin. Wagner's jury is still out, although I personally am a big supporter of the kid.

Majewski and Bray may not be Kearns and Lopez today, but, combining the two new Reds with the other three, the trade seems reasonable and balanced to me for a team in need of pitching.

Ramblings Returns? Where We Go From Here ...

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Tue, 20 Jun 2006 11:12:00 +0000

More than a month has passed since I last wrote to the Ramblings of a Reds Fan journal, and, admittedly, life has been happening while I have been making other plans. Marriage is first and foremost my concern, considering I wasn't married when the RRF began, but now I am a married man with a wife at home and a full-time job requiring greater responsibilities of me now than two months ago. I could continue giving reasons (or excuses) why the Report isn't current or updated; however, I really don't see the point in giving the multitude of explanations.

Plain and simple, weekly updates of this journal are not unrealistic, and I have been lax about keeping my information current. With additional summer "vacations" planned over the upcoming weeks, I owe my readers some firsthand information I can provide from my race track trips.

Some "past" and "upcoming" information that could have been posted already includes:
- The "streakiness" of the ballclub ... win a lot and lose a lot
- The current (most recent) losing skid
- How to effectively fix the relief pitching on this team
- Why is the offensive output so erratic (10 runs one day and no runs the next)
- Is Bronson Arroyo the best thing since sliced bread ... or will reality soon set in?
- Who is the ace of this staff? Harang, Arroyo, or someone else?!?
- Can Adam Dunn actually play defense?
- Will Junior stay healthy for the rest of the season?
- And much, much more ...

I am also proud to (re-)announce that I am the Cincinnati, OH, Local Chapter President for the Official NASCAR Members Club (LC 452381), which began in mid-to-late April. The chapter website is located at: http://onmcchapter.com/index.php?uname=452381&select_state=OH

Separately, I run my general sports website at: http://clubhouseconnection.net This site houses a variety of content, most exclusively the sole provider for the "Soul Patrol" CD (downloadable mp3 files by purchase) published by baseball rock artists Clubhouse (comprised of Blessid Union of Souls (BUOS), among others) for our website of Clubhouse Connection. If you haven't already checked it out, please check out the Clutch Hits CD published by the Cincinnati Reds in conjunction with the Reds Foundation and Buddy Rodgers music here in Cincinnati. It is a fantastic CD supporting a foundation for good causes.

The NASCAR special section co-links the ONMC Chapter site noted above with the NASCAR.com sign-up page that includes my special ID # for referral purposes and to be included as a potential member of my chapter (regardless if you live near Cincinnati, OH, or not). http://clubhouseconnection.net/nascar/

This is a quick "hello again" and an equally quick "I must be off / goodbye" since time is of the essence. Please know that I haven't forgotten about my writing journals, and I hope to be back to twice-weekly publishing again very soon.

Miss a Week, Miss a Lot ... Reds Slumping in May; Lose Five Straight

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Thu, 18 May 2006 09:20:00 +0000

When I last wrote about the Reds on Friday, May 5th, they were coming off a lopsided 7-1 loss in Arizona at the hands of the surging Diamondbacks. Saturday's game was slightly better but still was notched as a loss (3-1) to Arizona once again. Staving off a sweep, the Reds rebounded for a 9-8 win on Sunday (5/7) to salvage a bad road trip. Returning home looked to be the medicine this team needed, and the Washington Nationals could be a great candidate to motivate this team into action.

After Monday's off day, the Reds lost again behind the arm of Brandon Claussen in an ugly 7-1 loss on Tuesday. Back-to-back days (Wednesday and Thursday, 5/10 and 5/11) brought back-to-back wins (9-6 and 5-4) for the first time since the brief St. Louis series a week earlier. When the weekend rolled around, the phenomenal Phillies were riding a big winning streak (losing only one of their last ten games) ... and that trend did not stop against the Reds. Friday's 8-4 loss featured a solid (if unspectacular) start by Elizardo Ramirez and a bullpen blow-up, Saturday's 2-0 loss was a tough pill to swallow (Jon Lieber pitched 6 2/3 perfect innings against a great start by fifth starter Dave Williams), and Sunday's extra-inning 2-1 loss (with a wasted quality start by Brandon Claussen) could have gone either way.

Thank goodness for off days because this team needed one on Monday, 5/15. The last 11 games (all during the month of May) had seen only four wins versus an ugly seven losses; however, the Reds managed to stay only one game behind the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals. Of course, given that this is being written early Thursday morning (a few days later), a couple more games have taken place. If the records meant anything, the first half of this road trip (against NL Central patsies, Pittsburgh Pirates) should have been a walk in the park. Or not.

The last two games -- a 9-3 whuppin' and an equally ugly 7-2 loss on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively -- have nothing short of "gag me" excruciating pain. The offense is gone, the pitching attrocious ... what positive things can I possibly find out of these losses? Starts by Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, the team's two best starters, were awful. Deservedly, both starters also notched the losses.

Mercifully, the Reds-Pirates series ends today (Thursday, 5/18) during a business day special in Pittsburgh. The Reds still hold a winning record (23-17) versus the awful record of the Pirates (13-27), but this Cincinnati club will be lucky not to be swept once again if the offense doesn't come around soon. Dave Williams (2-3, 6.32 - getting his act together lately) faces Victor Santos (1-4, 5.32 - coming off a bad outing against the Marlins last Friday) in this critical game for the Reds. Considering the next series is in Detroit against baseball's surprising second-best team (the Tigers), the Reds need to figure things out quickly before the Cardinals lap them in the NL Central.

The "Ramblings" Journal is On Hiatus [until after 5/13]

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Sat, 06 May 2006 04:51:00 +0000

I will make this post short and direct. I have a personal vacation planned between today (which is now Saturday, May 6th) until a week from today (Saturday, May 13th), when I will be returning home. I probably will not write anything new about the Richmond race on Saturday night or even the upcoming Darlington race, which will be happening the night I will be flying home with my new bride.

In any case, I hope you enjoy reading my previous entries, and I look forward to continuing to serve my readers with fresh content when I get back from this break.

Sincerely,

JD Rentz

P.S. The Reds lost badly to the Arizona Diamondbacks in their series opener on Friday night, but I hope they will manage to rebound to take two of three over the next couple of days.

Reds Machine Hits "Rocky" Road on Wednesday, Lose 3-0 in Colorado

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Thu, 04 May 2006 03:27:00 +0000

The new incarnation of the "Big Red Machine" has seen the Cincinnati Reds do almost everything right and very little wrong. That is not to say that this Reds team is "perfect", but things most certainly have been clicking along the way. The train had a minor derailment on Wednesday evening, though, as the Colorado Rockies, behind the solid performance of starter Jeff Francis, knocked off the Reds in a 3-0 shutout victory over the most explosive offense in the majors.

How could a team like the Reds go scoreless in a scoring haven like Coors Field? Well, with Francis scattering only four hits and one walk over seven innings of work that included five strikesouts, it is easy to see that the pitcher made the difference. Francis' opponent was Reds' starter Brandon Claussen, who delivered a respectable, if not spectacular, performance. Claussen allowed only three runs in six and two-thirds innings on seven hits with two walks and five strikeouts. All of the damage in this game happened in only one inning -- the bottom of the fifth.

The inning started off with a single by Choo Freeman, who then stole second followed by a reach of third on a throwing error by first baseman Rich Aurilia. Danny Ardoin followed that up by a single to center, scoring Freeman as the first run of the game. Francis grounded out (on a bunt attempt) into a fielder's choice as the lead runner (Ardoin) was nailed for the first out at second. Jamey Carroll singled to center as the next batter, moving Francis to second. Ryan Spilborghs flied out to right for the second out before the nail was driven into the Reds' coffin. Matt Holliday, who easily had the night's best performance, hit a double over the head of centerfielder Ryan Freel to score both runners and stretch the lead to three (and the resulting final score of 3-0). The inning ended innocently with an intentional walk to Garret Atkins and then a strikeout swinging of Eli Marrero.

The Reds offense was as silent as a night in Bethlehem on this evening. Claussen (2-3) had no run support from a team that has scored 158 runs in it's previous 27 games (5.85 runs per game), so a shutout is one of those unexpected events on this team. Giving Francis (1-2) credit, he was in command of the Reds from beginning until his exit after the seventh. The save in this game went to Brian Fuentes (6), who pitched a scoreless ninth, after Jose Mesa held the Reds without a hit in the eighth in relief of Francis.

The road trip is not starting as the homestand had ended. With the loss, the Reds still are in a tie for the most wins in baseball, but their lead in the NL Central slipped back to 1/2 game over the Astros (who beat the Cardinals on the night). More discouraging? The next opponent after the Rockies tomorrow is the Diamondbacks on Friday. Why discouraging? Arizona has won three in a row and is headed towards the top of the division to challenge front-runner Colorado. The Reds are hitting the West's two best teams at the wrong time.

I am certainly encouraged by tomorrow's starter, Aaron Harang, to salvage a split in this short two-game series. His opponent is a quality starter, Josh Fogg, who has best been known in recent years as a Pittsburgh Pirate. Harang has been dominant of late while Fogg has been struggling. Let us all hope that both trends continue ... for the Reds' sake.

Rounding Third and Heading for Home ...

Arroyo & Reds Roll Over Mulder & Cardinals in 6-1 Win

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Tue, 02 May 2006 11:05:00 +0000

The Cincinnati Reds rolled to yet another victory on this young season with a 6-1 defeat of the former co-leaders in the NL Central, the St. Louis Cardinals. Monday night's effort was a microcosm of the season we have seen to date, with pitcher "extraordinaire" Bronson Arroyo going the distance for a complete game against his rival Mark Mulder, who failed to get out of the sixth inning. With this win, the Reds move into sole possession of first place again (at 18-8), as the Cardinals (17-9) fall to one game back and the Astros, in losing to the Brewers on Monday night as well, slip to a game and a half behind (at 16-9).

This homestand to date could not be going much better for the home team. When the Reds returned to Cincinnati, they were riding a wave of success on a road trip that saw them win three of four from the Brewers in Milwaukee and sweep the Nationals in three at D.C. (for six of seven overall on the trip). With three of four won so far in these two series at home (two of three from the Astros and this last game from the Cardinals), the Reds have won an impressive eight of their last 10 games (with six straight between Sunday and Saturday during the week of April 23rd). Could things be going much better for this upstart team?

I find it interesting, yet not surprising, that the Reds continue to be ignored by the national media. Only one other team has as many wins (18) as the Reds do -- the defending World Series champion Chicago White Sox -- but Cincinnati is only getting a "blip" mention during most SportsCenter broadcasts that I have seen. How many wins will this team need to be taken seriously? Do they need a multi-game lead in the NL Central before they get the attention that is due at this point? My guess is that showing them more prominently at this point is an admission that the "experts" (notably from all media outlets) predicted this team was going absolutely nowhere fast. When they are already one-quarter of the way to their predicted win total (between 65 and 70 wins), it is not an unreasonable expectation that 80+ wins is within reach now.

Whether the Reds can manage a playoff spot by season's end is still a longshot. The Reds may have the number of both the Astros and Cardinals for now, but will that winning continue as the season progresses. The BIG positive in the season so far is that this team never sees themselves down and out, without the prospect to win a game despite trailing, and they will fight to get back the lead and claim victories whenever they can. That attitude is contagious, and I don't see it being lost as long as this team keeps winning games like they have. The offense has been fun to watch, mixing small ball with long ball and doing the "right" things at the right time repeatedly. Speed has been a blessing, with the potent combo of Ryan Freel at the top and Brandon Phillips towards the bottom of the order. The power in the middle (Dunn, Griffey (when healthy), and Kearns) is a great complementary component, and this lineup is as strong as any I have seen this team have in years.

Where this team has been separating itself from its opponents so far is (surprisingly) the starting pitching. The Reds are beating the league's best pitchers (Chris Carpenter, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, and Mark Mulder, all notables) from the contending teams in head-to-head competition with the likes of Arroyo, Aaron Harang, and Brandon Claussen. With Eric Milton soon to be returning from his surgery (when he started off 2-0 before a bad defeat prior to going on the DL) and Paul Wilson (the team's ace during the 2004 season) coming back from Tommy John surgery, this pitching staff might just be able to get even better. Elizardo Ramirez has been a very able substitute during Milton's absence this past week (providing two quality starts) while Dave Williams, the Reds' fifth starter, is the only "weak" component of the staff.

Williams will probably lose his starting spot at the current rate unless he delivers an impressive outing in today's afternoon game against the Cardinals to close out the homestand. His 1-2 record and 9.53 ERA is the worst in the rotation but at least his last start against the Nationals was a *little* bit better (not much, mind you, in dropping the ERA from 10.50 to 9.53). His opposition is Sidney Ponson, looking to notch a second win against the Reds in as many starts and split the two games in this quick series.

Fans will be watching intently today to see if the Reds can put some daylight between themselves and the opposition. The next two series after this one (two games at Colorado followed by two games at Arizona) *should* provide games this team can win, while the Cardinals and Astros will be beating up each other for a pair of games in Houston before St. Louis heads to Florida for three and Houston then gets three at Colorado. Colorado is playing better (15-11 overall, but 5-7 at home), Arizona is playing respectably (at .500, 5-6 at home), and Florida has been nearly the worst in the league (2-8 at home, 6-17 overall).

Stay tuned Reds fans ... this has been a great ride so far.

P.S. I finally saw some positive "press" on this morning's SportsCenter. John Kruk, of the ESPN Baseball Tonight crew, said the Reds will be contenders into October in the NL Central. That is the highest praise of any kind I have seen so far. Kudos, Mr. Kruk ... I knew I liked you!

An Opportunity Lost, Astros Squeak By Reds 3-2 (Tied with Cards for First in NL Central)

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Mon, 01 May 2006 02:12:00 +0000

Sunday afternoon's game at GABP was an example of an opportunity lost by the Cincinnati Reds. After winning two games against arguably Houston's best two pitchers (Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte), Cincinnati was facing rookie Taylor Buchholz, who should have been an "easier" adversary to conquer. However, on this day, the young pitcher did not go quietly.

Buchholz was pitching a very solid game until finally relinquishing his position in the seventh inning. His only blemishes came with a single in the second inning (to Austin Kearns) with no runs scored before allowing two hits and two runs to score in the sixth (McCracken singled to start the inning before Dunn cracked a two-run homer with two outs). All of the Astros' runs to support Buchholz came on home runs. Lance Berkman started things off right for the visitors by cranking a no-doubt two-run homer into the left field stands with Willie Taveras on base. Jason Lane homered for the second time in as many games, providing the (eventual) game-winning run on a solo shot in the fourth inning.

Beyond the sixth inning, the bats for both teams were silent. The bullpens were particularly effective in shutting down any offensive scoring. Despite a quality start, Elizardo Ramirez, who allowed only three runs in his six innings of work, did not pitch well enough to outmatch his opponent Buchholz. He certainly did what he needed to do to keep his team in the game, but this was one of those unusual games where the Reds just couldn't score runs.

The loss drops the Reds to 17-8, in a first-place tie with the Cardinals, who are coming to town on Monday for a brief two-game series. Only once this season have the Reds lost a series against a team -- that team was the Cardinals in St. Louis two weeks ago. The Cards did not "dominate" the series by any stretch in the earlier match-up, so look for this rematch to be fairly even. In Monday's game, St. Louis sends Mark Mulder (the second best starter on the team) against Reds' fifth starter Dave Williams (whose ERA is 9.53 with a poor 1-2 record). Cincinnati is going to have to score runs against Mulder to give Williams a chance in this game. Tuesday's game should see a pretty good pitching match-up between undefeated pitchers: Sidney Ponson (3-0, 3.13 ERA) and Bronson Arroyo (4-0, 2.34 ERA). Arroyo has been lights out for the Reds so far (excluding his no-decision on 4/16 head-to-head against Mulder and the Cardinals), while Ponson owns a win against the Reds already this season (on 4/15).

The Astros (16-8, 1/2 game behind) will be traveling to Milwaukee to face a Brewers team (14-11, 3 games back) with renewed hope after taking two of three from the Cubbies at Wrigley this weekend. The Pirates (7-19) have been a non-factor in the division but could play spoiler against the Cubs (13-10) by taking a couple of wins away in the next couple of days.

Somebody will have to lose in the St. Louis - Cincinnati matchup on Monday and then again on Tuesday. A split of both games seems posible, but the Reds would like nothing more than to knock off the formidable Cardinals twice in these two games and have a stellar homestand (possibly four wins in five games if these next two can go their way).

Two Games, Two Wins; Reds Rock Astros in 5-4 (Friday) and 6-3 (Saturday) Victories

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Sat, 29 Apr 2006 21:48:00 +0000

This may finally be a year of "destiny" for the Cincinnati Reds. There were no expectations by any of the "experts" for this team, most of them picking the Reds to be dead last in the NL Central if not near the bottom in all of the National League.

With the Oswalt "gorilla" gone on Friday night and Harang outpitching Pettitte on Saturday, are the Reds in a position to sweep this series? I am nearly a lifelong Reds fan (20+ years of my almost 30 years on the planet) with a passion for the game of baseball. As one of the apparently 9,756 people who bought a ticket at the gate (and the lines reflected the interest) for Friday night's game, I was happy to be part of a "historical" win for the Reds. I also decided, in a last-minute move on my part, that I should go to Saturday's game as well. The crowd of just under 25,000 fans was, to be blunt, disappointing. This is a first-place team, after all ... why not support them at a time when things are going so well?

Yes, Friday night's game was a record-breaking effort -- a record for losing, anyway, to one of the best pitchers in the game. No, this doesn't mean the Reds are a lock to go all the way from here. However, what I believe it means is that this team can figure out ways to win (ala the wonders of the 1990 team) without the most individually talented players available. This team has learned to play as a TEAM. That point is immeasurably important for the rest of this season.

Go figure that new cogs in the retooled "Machine" include Bronson Arroyo (who has been lights out) and Brandon Phillips (who has been lighting it up), among others, who are single-handedly changing the outcomes of games this season. Aaron Harang (who seems to be the Rodney Dangerfield "ace" of this team ... no respect at all) is coming into his own and, as far as I can tell, is pitching some darn good games of late. Ryan Freel and Felipe Lopez are "igniters" of this offense while Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns are the muscle. There are few weak spots up and down this lineup, including surprising star rookie Edwin Encarnacion at third base with league-leading RBI production following the bigger names in the lineup who are getting on base.

Is the pitching on this team still "suspect"? In short, yes, yes it is. Should this pitching staff get more respect than it has? Yes, it should. Harang, Arroyo, Claussen, and Milton (when healthy) are a potent combo. The fifth starter, who usually is not strong on most teams anyway, is particularly weak on this team. Dave Williams is not the right guy for that slot ongoing; Paul Wilson just might be that guy when he returns. A rotation featuring the aforementioned four, Wilson, and possibly revitalized starter Elizardo Ramirez (who pitched well on Monday against the Nationals) just might be enough to pull out enough wins in this division to beat out the Cardinals or Astros.

Winning this NL Central division is going to be tough. Being in first place with the best record in baseball near the end of April is a great start. No Reds team in history has ever started this strong (most April wins ever) ... now they need to keep it up and finish it this way.

Sunday will mark the finale of the three-game series, weather permitting, with the Reds looking (unexpectedly) for a series sweep. Nothing could be better for this team than to win the finale and take a commanding position in this division. A loss keeps them ahead, but it opens the door for St. Louis (who comes to town on Monday) to get into the lead as well. Elizardo Ramirez will be taking the mound for the Reds against Astros rookie Taylor Buchholz, who has been pitching quite well in only two major league starts. Ramirez wasn't too shabby himself against the Nationals in his last outing last Monday (notching his first ML win), but the Astros will be a real test for Ramirez (as should the Reds be a test for Buchholz).

I wouldn't be surprised to see the offenses have a good day on Sunday, as both pitchers may have a tendency to get flustered easily and give up some runs. Rain is potentially in the forecast, so let's hope the weather holds out for this game to be played.

A Big Series Starts Tonight (Reds vs Astros at GABP)

noreply@blogger.com (JD Rentz) — Fri, 28 Apr 2006 22:34:00 +0000

I plan to be there for the opening game of a crucial three-game series tonight as Roy Oswalt (who single-handedly destroys the Reds' offense) faces off against lefty Brandon Claussen (winless in his career against the Astros). If the cards were ever stacked against a team on a given night, this would be it.

I am heading to the ball park as soon as this is published, so I hope to report on a surprising victory when this game is over. GABP should be rocking tonight.

Go Reds!