Rantings from Florida

Brokering Jeb

2012-02-15T12:29:00.002-05:00

Could a disaster be brewing for the RNC when they get to Tampa this year? I don't push much credence in the continued chatter about the Republican nomination going to a brokered convention, but I thought I'd weigh in based on a report in The Hill getting some play. Apparently, some people want to make Jeb Bush the nominee:
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The Bush secret agenda has been a subliminal theme for months with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the favored proxy and pitchman. At CPAC it broke through to the surface: Al Cardenas, head of the American Conservative Union, says that Republican turmoil might lead to a brokered convention in which Jeb Bush would emerge as a “possible alternative” party nominee. It made Drudge this weekend.
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I will concede that with the convention in Florida, Jeb Bush may actually seem a viable option in a brokered convention. While I would never vote for him, Jeb Bush would be a good candidate for president, and that is probably the only job that would draw him back to the public sector. But if he actually wants to be, you know, president, this would be a poor route to take.

So let's list the obvious problems here, starting with some Jeb-specific issues. Jeb's last name is Bush. If that name doesn't ring any bells to you, then the Republicans efforts in the last four years to erase anyone's memories of that name may actually be working. But for most people, the name Bush is a quick reminder of how we got into the greatest economic disaster in three generations. Jeb is much smarter and practical than his older brother, but I don't think he can convince America of that between late August, when the Republican National Convention will be held, and early November, when President Obama is scheduled right now to win reelection in a landslide. Jeb could probably win Florida, but there is nowhere else in the country where voters have a solid comfort with who Jeb Bush is and what style he might bring to the job. There may be no candidate who could communicate in just 10 weeks everything voters want to know about their next president. Jeb certainly cannot.

And that gets to the larger problems with a brokered convention. This whole process we are going through? Where we savage Mitt Romney as a wussy moderate, Rick Santorum as a gay-bating asshole who hates Google and Newt Gingrich as a womanizing friendless insider? For reasons known only to those sane enough to stay away from politics, Jeb Bush took a pass on that whole ordeal. But to step in after millions of Republican voters have sweat over which clown to vote for, people like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin were not on the ballot. I think that once Republican delegates start to think about it, they will get over the fact that they only have losing options to choose from this year and realize that pissing off every Republican rank-and-file voter who bothered showing up at the polls this year would do damage both in this election cycle and beyond.

Which is why I think a brokered convention is still unlikely.

But if Jeb Bush does usurp the will of voters (not that a history of such action can be brought up or anything), it will be good for Democrats now and in the future. Running as your party's nominee for president isn't something you get to do twice.

Be my guest, Jeb. Get it over with now.

Grab The Popcorn, Mica-Adams Fight Coming

2012-02-10T09:46:00.002-05:00

Or at least that is what both parties say right now. Via the Sentinel:

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After weeks of silence, U.S. Rep. John Mica of Winter Park said Wednesday that he plans to run for re-election in a redrawn congressional district centered on Seminole County — setting up a potentially bruising primary with fellow Republican Sandy Adams of Orlando... If neither budges, a Mica-Adams primary could be a rough-and-tumble affair. Mica chairs the House Transportation Committee and would bring to bear all the weapons of an old bull Republican – well-heeled connections groomed by two decades on Capitol Hill... Adams, though, can count on the backing of the Tea Party caucus and could cast the race as a battle for the soul of the Republican Party.
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If you want to read all of the Republican inside baseball, I encourage you to check out the article.

It seems to me, though, that this is a fight that the Tea Party will lose. Mica is all the good things about the establishment when it comes to serving the interests of his own voters. Road projects are the type of pork everybody ultimately ends up calling a good thing.

As for Adams, I like people to take a moment and realize what she and her like really want when they talk about the soul of the Republican Party by reading here and here.

But the real thing that Democrats should be looking for is a good candidate in the 6th, where creepy Ruth Chris Steakhouse ex-CEO Craig Miller poses for now the best hope for the GOP. In a year where the 99 percent are especially angry at bastards who got rich doing a bad job in the private sector, I think the Republicans are cooking us a pick-up seat.

Hyperbole, Lunacy and Marco Rubio

2012-02-09T17:10:00.005-05:00

I like to think this is just the primary season rearing its head and that the divisiveness of elections is simply an element of democracy that unavoidably comes and goes, but the extraordinary hyperbole being employed by conservatives to describe one of the most lackluster presidential administrations of the last 50 years is starting to get under my skin.

Today seems a good day to discuss it, based on remarks made by Marco Rubio, the distinguished senator from Florida, at the CPAC spectacle. Via The Christian Science Monitor:

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“Unlike any leader in modern American history, we are led today by a president that has decided to pit Americans against each other,” Rubio thundered. “The basic argument he is making to our nation is that the reason why some of us are worse off than we used to be is because other people are doing too well. That the only way for some of us to do better is for some people to do worse.”
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Having heard Rubio's voice before, I can't help but wonder how exactly it "thundered," but that's beside the point. What really gets me more and more each day is the mischaracterization of Barack Obama as some type of radical president. If I may speak for everyone in America whose philosophy tilts even slightly to the left, I would say to that "Ha!"

Since Rubio has been as plagued by the real nutty band of his party as much as Obama, let's just assume he is making reference to those polite disagreements in policy which Newt Gingrich likes to call socialist.

One is that Barack Obama wants the rich to pay their fair share in taxes. This is horrifying to the very rich, who have suggested it would prevent them from creating jobs. Never mind that the Great Recession began during a period of unprecedented tax relief for the top 1 percent, this beef with Obama ignores a significant face. While Obama ran upon and has stumped for a more fair tax program, he hasn't done jack about it. Not when Democrats controlled the House, not when a filibuster-proof majority was in the Senate, never!

As someone who is utterly confused how such a simple move as returning tax rates to mid-1990s levels would set this country somewhere it can't come back from (unless we ever, you know, elect a Republican president for even a year), I find it somewhat laughable that Rubio and his GOP consorts even find this abominable aspect of Obama's as anything beyond an empty threat. To recap, everything the Republicans fear about Obama's fiscal policies is utter exaggeration, and it's all crap anyways beyond Obama has never followed through even a little bit.

The same can be said for most any part of that crazy leftist agenda which Obama supposedly crams down our throats against our will. ObamaCare? A watered-down series of reforms which doesn't even contain a public option. An appeasement foreign policy? Right, except that it has been nothing but a continuation of Bush's foreign policy, the exact policies which made us the bane of the entire rest of the world.

So why is it that the Republicans fight so hard against this paper dragon of a president? I would like to offer my own theory.

It's because they are losing.

I know that comment can come bite me in the ass, and even working on the presumption this election is Obama's to lose, it is entirely possible he will. But the truth is that those Republicans who have found electoral success can see clearly that the party is not on that path for 2012.

Rubio's remarks today were eaten up by CPAC goers like a Roman emperor's commands to his bloodthirsty forces. This type of speech is called "red meat" for a reason. But what is being sold to primary voters right now is a false reality, and one which independent voters won't buy so easily.

This president is not a communist. He isn't anti-Christian. He isn't anti-business. He isn't anti-freedom. How do we know this? Because nothing has come of any of having a man with such an agenda in the White House for four years. The folks on the right are selling a lie. The country is not falling apart, and the fact a Super Bowl ad saying nothing more than that America can weather a recession shows how nefarious the motives of the Republicans are.

But America is strong, and it is strong enough to stand up to these lies and smart enough to see through this crap.

Cliff and Komen

2012-02-03T10:35:00.004-05:00

I was more than stunned to learn that all of the recent controversy about the Susan G. Komen Search for the Cure's defunding of Planned Parenthood may all go back to the actions of one Cliff Stearns, R-Ocala. But that is exactly what reporting by the New York Times suggests. As the publication highlighted a Komen official giving contradicting stories about defunding, this paragraph was tossed into an NYT report:

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Her comments directly contradicted those of John D. Raffaelli, a Komen board member and Washington lobbyist, who told The New York Times on Wednesday that Komen made the changes to its grant-making process specifically to end its relationship with Planned Parenthood. Mr. Raffaelli said that Komen had become increasingly worried that an investigation of Planned Parenthood by Representative Cliff Stearns, Republican of Florida, would damage Komen’s credibility with donors.
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This is absurd, of course, as all of the Republican rhetoric in Washington about Planned Parenthood has been transparently political.

But what I am most interested in right now is the actions of Stearns, who I will note was my congressman for many years when I lived in Leesburg and remains the representative for my family. When I covered politics there, of course, I spoke to Stearns many times. He was ardently pro-life, so a distaste for Planned Parenthood isn't that surprising, but what disturbs me about this bit of information is that his actions may well be motivated to hurt the broader actions of Planned Parenthood far beyond just the abortion issue.

We now have seen as a direct result of Stearns opening up an investigation - if such an action by a politically-motivated member of Congress even deserves that label - that funding which for fundamental health services supported by Planned Parenthood could be at risk. The NYT piece notes the $700K donated by Komen is a tiny portion of the funding PP gets, but it seems to me the intent of Stearns investigation was to goad a number of organizations, not just Komen, into rethinking funding.

Since the Republicans retook the House, I have been extraordinarily disturbed by the way they have gone after organizations with broad missions because of disagreements over specific political issues. The attacks on NPR because of perceived bias. The assault on ACORN over unsubstantiated allegations of criminal sympathy. The broad-brushed attacks on Planned Parenthood because of abortion.

It is clear now that Stearns and his kin are willing to put any number of services provided by Planned Parenthood at risk just so they can smear a credible voice in pro-choice politics. For Stearns, who has always been a supporter of critical health research, this is especially hypocritical and disappointing.

I know a fair number of the people who read this blog live in or near Stearns district, and I think it is time they made their voice heard. Stearns is hurting access to mammograms, family planning and other critical services through his politicizes "investigation" of Planned Parenthood. This is wrong, and the congressman should not be able to do this and suffer no consequences whatsoever.

Update: The Susan G. Komen foundation has reversed course on the funding issue. From their statement today: "The events of this week have been deeply unsettling for our supporters, partners and friends and all of us at Susan G. Komen. We have been distressed at the presumption that the changes made to our funding criteria were done for political reasons or to specifically penalize Planned Parenthood. They were not."

Pick a Loser Already!

2012-01-31T16:13:00.002-05:00

Can the polls just close? I am so tired of the dredge ads, the anti-prosperity messaging and the hatefulness of the Republican field saturating Florida right now.

Ugh.

McGillicuddy's Screwed-Up Future

2012-01-30T11:25:00.003-05:00

I had an interesting experience last week at a political rally I was covering. I bumped into Connie Mack, my congressman and, most likely, the Republican who will challenge Bill Nelson for his Senate seat this year. Why was it strange to see Mack at a presidential candidate rally. The event was for Newt Gingrich and Mack has endorsed Mitt Romney.

And he was making his endorsement known. I asked him if he was traveling with Gingrich, and he was quick to remind, as I had frankly forgotten, that he was backing another guy. But, with the Florida primary days away, he was going from rally to rally, and not just for his guy.

Mack was there as a surrogate, someone to grab the attention of gathered reporters and badmouth Newt. I must admit, this created an entertaining scene. Newt Gingrich's field guy freaked out and was interrupting the little press roundup Mack had called at the base of the camera rafters, and Mack was slamming the guest of honor at this crashed party. He started mentioning Freddie Mac out so often you think he was adopting a new pseudonym for the Senate race. But the attacks were good ones.

"My constituents aren't buying this whole historian story," Mack said, a direct attack on Newt Gingrich's contract work with the bank conservatives hate most.

But as this played out, I couldn't help but think, what happens if Newt becomes the nominee? I imagine there will be some awkward bus rides next October.

For those who haven't been to a presidential campaign, know that every candidate for statewide office at the same time can have their calendar disrupted by their nominee's schedulers at any time. Every moment that Al Gore or George Bush was in Florida in 2000 before the election, Bill Nelson or Bill McCollum respectively were by their sides. It actually becomes a big story when Senate candidates won't make time for the bigger names, the way then gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist didn't really want to be seen with an unpopular George W. Bush in 2006.

So will Connie Mack be ready for long car rides from Miami to Orlando this October. Can he with any credibility announce Newt Gingrich as the "next president of the United States" as he introduces his party nominee?

If Romney wins Florida tomorrow, it may be a moot point. Mack's best hope, of course, is that he bet on the right horse, and the other horses will all go lame quickly. But unlike a lot of the candidates campaigning for presidential hopefuls, or even just endorsing them with non-confrontational and positive statements, there is a lot more at risk for Mack than the average flak.

Which just makes me hope more gleefully than ever that Gingrich is the nominee. If that happens, it's time to buy stock in popcorn.

Florida's Bain Story

2012-01-24T12:49:00.002-05:00

I love that there seems to be a story of Bain destroying a company through vulture tactics in every state of the union. Here is ours!.

Via the Miami Herald:
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It started in 1995, when Romney’s Bain Capital targeted the company that became Dade Behring, which made blood-testing machines and performed animal research at its Miami campus.

Bain borrowed heavily to buy the company and closed a factory in Puerto Rico to improve the bottom line. About 400 lost jobs there. Then in 1997, Bain shuttered Dade Behring’s Miami operations, costing another 850 jobs and a $30 million payroll in the community.

Before growing debt consumed the company, Bain executed its exit strategy and made $242 million.
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Yes, this man clearly knows how to create jobs... for the servants in his own home. But I guess I'm just attacking free enterprise.

The significance of stories like this, though, isn't evidence that Mitt Romney is a terrible businessman. It is that he known only how to make money off exploitation.

I heard Herman Cain defending what Bain does the other day on Bill Maher's show. Cain noted that he shrunk Godfather's Pizza, then when he changed the business model, he expanded it again. That it not the sort of story we story we keep getting about Bain Capital.

Romney's crew didn't stick around to rebuild companies. Instead, they sucked companies dry, like vampires finding corpses near death but still filled with ripe enough blood to consume. After sending people home with boxes, the company found ways to make millions in profits and skipped town themselves.

Businesses fail. I get it. Not that Romney takes responsibility for that happening either.

But the truly disgusting thing that Romney keeps putting on display is his complete inability to defend any part of his record. When people attack his time as governor of Massachusetts, he blames it on Democrats in the Legislature. When people attack his time in the public sector, he calls them commies who aren't properly bowing themselves at his feet to worship at the altar of capitalism.

Romney is not just the enemy of liberals. He is the enemy of the working class. And he is just now coming to realize the Republican Party's rank-and-file membership is made up of working class people.

What Problem?

2012-01-19T10:49:00.002-05:00

Politico has a story today entitled "Obama's Florida 2012 Problem," which is kind of silly title. The article is fine, I suppose, but the treatment of the story makes the mistake that folks in Washington always tend toward, assuming the last election is indicative of the next one.

Obama won Florida in 2008, but he won a lot of places. It was a landslide election. To suggest he may not see exactly the same results this November is lazy analysis. Of course he won't. He is in a completely different station, both professionally and in the course of time. An incumbent president will have to run a different campaign than a candidate looking to challenge the party in control, and that means we have a very different race on our hands from top to bottom. Consider a flip on the old proverb, to do things differently and expect the same results could be a second definition of insanity.

Florida was a swing state in 2008, and it will be again in 2012. It was also a swing state in 2004, 2000, 1996 and 1992. This is fourth most populous state in the union, and the only one that will actually be up for grabs this go-round.

All that is to say, Big Deal! Politico thinks the fact Florida is a battleground is a problem for the president? If so, it has been a problem for every president of the past 40 years. With the sole of exception of Ronald Reagan, who was reelected by an historic electoral college margin in 1984, every sitting president since Gerald Ford has found themselves worrying about winning Florida. The last two presidents— Bill Clinton and George W. Bush— both increased voter support in the states substantially during their reelection efforts, so there is some reason to believe this state warms to incumbents more than Washington observers realize. But no matter what, presidential candidates of either party, incumbent or not, have to campaign hard in Florida to win. Obama will be no exception.

A lot of people are fascinated with the prospect of a Marco Rubio vice presidential effect, but the more I think about it, the more laughable the constant conversation seems to me. It may be why Rubio has in past been dismissive of VP talks.

First off, the idea party activists can decide the vice president before they even select a nominee is a misunderstanding of the process. This is a personal decision made by a man running for president, and he doesn't want to succomb to public pressure. Bill Clinton once noted this is a presidential decision the nominee gets to make before they are elected president. If anything, the outcry for Rubio is probably a hindrance on his chances of actually getting the nod.

But let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Rubio does get selected as a running mate. Will it help the Republicans in November? Of course, but it won't take Florida off the table. Rubio, who barely won a majority of votes in the state in 2010 and only got elected after a bizarre series of events unlikely to happen again, does not take Florida off the list of swing states. Recall that Jeb Bush, who was widely popular at the time, could not help his brother win Florida in 2000 without an assist from the Supreme Court.

Rubio is actually better off personally sticking out a full term in the Senate, then running for president in 2016, or even 2020. If he avoids this campaign, he runs less risk of having the loser stink that plagues Sarah Palin and other running mates blamed (probably unfairly) for taking a losing ticket down.

So will Obama have to fight for Florida? Of course. That's why he's at Disney today, more than any other reason. But can he still win? Yes. Can he beat a Romney-Rubio or Gingrich-Rubio ticket? Yes. Is he still in a good position to be re-elected regardless of what happens in Florida? Yes.

So what's the problem?

Pelosi Behind Demings?

2012-01-17T11:18:00.002-05:00

An otherwise unsurprising Politico article on how Nancy Pelosi thinks Mitt Romney will lose had an interesting nugget of information about a certain Central Florida race.

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Pelosi also touted female congressional candidates such as Tammy Duckworth, a former assistant secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs who is running for Congress in Illinois, and former Orlando police chief Val Demings, who is trying to unseat Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.).

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71531.html#ixzz1jjWEjhs6
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This makes me wonder if Pelosi knows more about Florida redistricting than the rest of us, but it is a pretty strong signal of which way she wants any primary in FL-08 to go. Consider this just another sign Alan Grayson's ambitions lie elsewhere, I guess.

Of course, Pelosi has a lot of reason to be excited about Demings' campaign. She seems to be out-raising Webster, and despite the spin from Webster included in that linked Orlando Sentinel article, an incumbent who can't out-raise a challenger in any scenario should lose sleep at night.

What will really decide this race? It is still tough to predict the political climate in November, but I have a growing feeling that things will tilt to the left come Election Day instead of the right. The only real question right now is whether the Legislature can draw Webster a district in which he cannot lose. Since he has long kept friends on both sides of the aisle in Tallahassee, that is possible, Fair Districts or not.

We shall see.

Allen West's Insanity To Hard To Follow

2011-12-16T19:14:00.003-05:00

In a different dimension where this blog was the top source of Florida political news that I once dreamed it would be, I wouldn't be following so many other blogs when spotting the latest Allen West gaffe. It earned him the title America's Dumbest Congressman from Daily Kos today, and Washington Monthly has already pointed out West is stark raving mad.

Let me weigh in anyway. Comparing the Democratic messaging machine to Joseph Goebbels is both laughable (the Democrat's have no talent at messaging) and a bit offensive to come from the lips of a man representing a largely Jewish population.

But I actually think there is something more significant here, and it reaches well beyond West. It is this constant idea among conservatives that they are accountable to no one and when someone tries to hold them accountable, it is a sign of some anti-democratic and wicked conspiracy. At a different time, the media might have called bullshit on this, but not today. Ironically, the reason noone will call them out is because they don't want to appear biased to conservatives, who believe everyone in the world who does not share their worldview is biased anyway.

Makes you wonder what 'bias' even means to these people when they believe Allen West is a respectable public servant.

Sigh. More later, I am sure.

New Map An Interesting Start

2011-11-29T10:10:00.003-05:00

So the first draft of the Congressional map for Florida is out and there is some significant chit-chat out there. It has been a while since I blogged, and I guess since I have bloviated myself about redistricting, this is a good time to chime in. My take, for what it is worth, is that is is actually a pretty good sign for Democrats next year in Florida.

Some are suggesting this ignores the Fair Districts amendment. I say, Duh!

No, that's not true. I do think this acknowledges the amendment, but only in a political sense and not by the letter of the law. It seems lawmakers are answering the amendment by making a district which doesn't benefit the GOP's ambitions. Given that the Republicans have a stranglehold on the Legislature here, that is a pretty good after-effect of passing the amendment. Does that make me a cynical partisan? I don't think so. Considering Florida is a state with a U.S. senator from each major party and which has been a swing state in the past FIVE presidential elections, it is just crazy how badly the GOP dominates the Congressional delegation from this state. Ultimately, the partisan make-up of our delegation is the greatest way to measure how fair the district lines are created, and this gives us a chance to balance the scales. Just a chance.

Before we start, here is a link to the map that is used today:

The Panhandle is almost unchanged, and I am not sure how much any tweaks would do. When we lost Boyd last year, we probably lost FL-02 for a good while. Boyd was a conservative Democrat, and the voters eventually decided it was time to switch him with a conservative Republican. I am not sure it will be so easy to get them to switch back, and I am not sure how much the modern Democratic Party wants a new Blue Dog. But things start to get interesting in Northeast Florida.

Right now, FL-04 is held by Republican Ander Crenshaw. But the district now has more Duvall County in it than has before. I don't think that means much this cycle, but if Jacksonville trends more Democratic, it could mean this seat comes into play when Crenshaw retires. An Hispanic seat in Central Florida (FL-27) almost surely will be Democratic, and Corrine Brown's seat, while an embarrassment to Fair Districts advocate, seems unlikely ever to switch red. Does Alan Grayson have a shot with this map? I think so, but he will have to convince Democrats of that. In the big picture, that is a good thing for liberals.

In South Florida, David Rivera's district is moving away from him, showing the Legislature may take my advice and hang the fucker out to dry. This is good news for any and everybody, as this freshman who has spent more time avoiding investigation than filing legislation, is a black eye on the state transcending party lines. It looks to me like Allen West is also in for a fight, convincing me more than ever that he is a one-term Congressman and the right's 2010 version of Grayson 2008.

So there is a lot in my opinion to like in this map. The most important thing to remember, in my opinion, is that it is a starting point. Considering the fear in many, many states with GOP legislatures, it is important to note this is a map that does not make anything worse for Democrats next year. Since our current map is so screwed up, that is hardly a consolation, I know, but this map, as it looks today, gives Democrats the chance to pick up seats next year, and the opportunity to get our House delegation in balance over the next decade. And this is only map one, so things are likely to get better. I view this all as good news.

Stop Calling New Frontrunners

2011-11-15T13:35:00.002-05:00

I guess all of the pundits, blogs and media outlets are ready to declare Newt Gingrich as the new GOP frontrunner, even though everyone knows he is unlikely to win the nod, much less the presidency. This seems contrary, but it it true.

So can we just stop saying the term front-runner? Can we admit that Mitt Romney has not sewn this up, but that there is no way to tell today, in mid-November, who will start winning primaries, caucuses, and ultimately the nomination?

Here is the deal. Newt Gingrich won't win in Iowa or New Hampshire, and if he is a blip in the polls then, it will be amazing. Just as winning Ames meant nothing for Michele Bachmann, being ahead in the polls right now is not important for Newt Gingrich. If there is a front-runner today, it doesn't matter anyhow. Winning polls doesn't win elections.

Just saying.

Boeing Moving in at Kennedy

2011-10-31T11:28:00.002-04:00

Now that's what I'm talking about.

The news that Boeing will take over a hanger at Kennedy Space Center for its own space program is exciting news to those of us who believe private spaceflight is the future. Hopefully, this private company won't be the last to get space on the port.

Seeing the final space shuttle flight has been a tough pill to swallow for everyone living in Florida this year, but this could create a genuinely brighter future, and one where there is more manned spaceflight, not less.

Mr. McGillicuddy Flip Flops

2011-10-28T08:12:00.003-04:00

My own Congressman has entered the US Senate race, the one he said he wouldn't enter a few months ago during a clearly botched unroll on the same courthouse steps where his father announced a successful campaign.

Connie Mack may now be the frontrunner in the race to lose to Bill Nelson next year, but I am sure the piranhas already in the tank will take every piece of him they can. Does a known adulterer have much to fear when the ops teams go nuclear? I think we all know that. Expect a stream of news about bar fights, nepotism and bizarre votes on issues sure to offend the right, the left and everyone in between. That's what you get for having a legislative record and the maturity of a 12-year-old boy.

The biggest news in this to me, of course, is that Mack's House seat is in play. Today, it isn't too much of a swing district, but that seems likely to change as the redistricting process plays out. It will really depend on whether the Legislature wants to keep scandal-prone David Rivera's seat in the red column. We will see some early entries within days, but the viability of an interesting race will be determined this spring.

The Republican field in the 14th is already significant, including former Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp, state Reps. Gary Aubuchon and Dudley Goodlette and a number of smaller office candidates who could make a difference depending on where the district lines fall.

A Victory For Multilateralism

2011-10-20T21:37:00.002-04:00

I won't completely recount the process I followed from being wary of involvement in Libya to seeing it as a long-overdue return to a foreign policy based on cooperation with the world. I went through that here.

Instead, I celebrate today the power of multilateralism, which is what ultimately led to the death of Muammar Gaddafi. It was freedom fighters in Libya who deposed and disposed this tyrant, and the result is that the country is now in a state of true democracy.

Will that last? I suppose the Glenn Beck's of the world are waiting for terrorists to roll in and install an enemy to America. That could happen, of course, but I would argue it is a lot less likely since America under Barack Obama backed NATO efforts and international assistance for this genuine liberation.

Contrast that to Iraq, where the George W. Bush administration also successfully deposed a dictator but were forever stained with the mark of a foreign invasion. Saddam Hussein was tried and executed by a court there, but it always smelled, even in America, of a verdict designed to appease American interests rather than satisfy the will of the local population.

The same, I believe, cannot be said of Libya. And as a bonus, the slight military involvement we had in the country will not leave us in a quagmire for years waiting for a new government to establish a police force capable of maintaining the same peace as the American military.

This is what happens when there is a true Coalition of the Willing. This is why revolutions are homegrown, and only invasions are imported. This is where international support for the people of a country can result in goodwill. There will be no "Mission Accomplished" moment from the deck of an American military vessel. Yet, it feels like this mission was achieved in a much more durable way.

And of note, the mess caused by unilateral action in Afghanistan and Iraq is still being felt now. We have more troops in those countries than ever set foot in Libya during this entire conflict. It is utterly amazing. The Arab Spring is a model for the world to watch, and for America to learn from. You can't twist people's arms and expect them to be grateful with outcomes forced upon them. But the tanks in Sirte today really are being greeted as liberators.

Rick Scott, Socialist

2011-10-13T21:33:00.002-04:00

Calling Barack Obama a socialist has come into complete vogue among America's right. I often wonder if they even know what the term means. But based on what Republican leaders like Rick Scott call conservatism, I wonder if they even mean the word as an insult.

For example, what would you call controlling what degrees college students earn in Florida and assigning them subjects to study based on workforce needs in the state? Rick Scott has proposed just that. While the press has focused on his weird hatred of anthropologists (maybe he is trying to clear the job field for his daughter), it strikes me that we have heard this sort of tactic before. Like in Communist China.

Am I exagerating? Perhaps a little. It isn't like Scott wants to force people to major in certain things. But the philosophy remains the same. Have more journalism majors than journalism jobs? Well then let's stop teaching journalism classes. And for my media friends, yes, journalism schools seems to be next on his list after those meddling anthropologists.

So let's get this straight. ObamaCare for everyone is socialism, though having the state subsidize Rick Scott's health insurance is ok. Taxing millioners is class warfare, but redistributing wealth toward the rich makes sense. And taking millions in government money is cool as long as it is through fraudlent Medicare claims.

It seems to me Rick Scott really likes socialism, as long as he gets to be the dictator.

Rick Scott's 700,000 Lies

2011-10-09T08:19:00.003-04:00

See what I did there? That headline makes it sound like Rick Scott has told 700,000 lies since taking office. He has probably told far fewer, at least consequential ones, but it sound like a really big deal when I put it that way.

But really, this post is about one lie, that Rick Scott was going to create 700,000 in 7 years through, well, some other third 7 thing as part of his "7-7-7 Plan." (I bet the rest of the country thought Herman Cain was so creative)

The big politics story in Florida this week has been about how the press suddenly realized he was measuring job growth in a different way than he promised. See, the 700,000 was going to be in addition to normal growth, at least on the campaign trail. Now, Voldemort says that is never what he meant.

I always suspected Scott would claim the job growth was happening no matter what the numbers said, and there are frankly some other ways he is cheating the figures that have barely been discussed. For example, in this statement from Scott "clarifying" what he meant in the central promise of his campaign, he touts 87,200 private sector jobs, but a look at the graph at the bottom of the page shows he is ignoring a loss of 15,600 government jobs in the same time period. We'll get to that in a minute.

The big lie really dates back to the summer of when reporters were just starting to take Scott's campaign seriously. When he unveiled his plan, it didn't take terribly long for the press to realize how unremarkable 700,000 new jobs in seven years would be. This is Florida, a state with so many undeveloped platted housing lots waiting for the recession to end that job growth is almost guaranteed in that time period. Maybe he was initially caught flat-footed when the St Pete Times asked in July if he meant on top of normal growth and he said yes. But come the debates, he wasn't waiting for someone to question things. He stated boldly that everything was on top of normal growth, preempting a call of "bullshit" from Alex Sink.

In hindsight, maybe Alex should have just said, 'Well, I'll create 1 million,' knowing that wasn't a job more than would come if she played the violin her entire governorship. But enough hypothetical dreaming.

Here is why the difference matters. Let us look at the last release from the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation tracking the jobs figures in Florida. In August, we actually had unemployment rate in Florida fixed at 10.7 percent, the same as the month before despite the addition of 9,900 jobs in statewide. How could that be? Florida's population growth is not just people coming here with jobs. We have retirees,families with only one person working, etc. That means jobs did not go up at a rate any faster than our regular population. That is why the number of jobs gained was inconsequential to the economy, other than ensuring things were not any worse.

There are in fact more people actively looking for work and unable to find a job in August than there were in July. The unemployment rate is better than it was a year ago, but in the last month, it has not improved despite the creation of nearly 10,000 jobs. Get it?

The good news is that while Rick Scott has job growth numbers to hide behind and pretend he is on his way to fulfilling his 700,000-job promise, that doesn't matter politically. The voters only really care if the economy is better. If after four years in office, Florida has created 400,000 jobs but added 3 million new people, the economy will be much worse, and Floridians will have no tolerance for "I only promised this many jobs in this many years" platitudes from the governor, and he will be tossed on his ear.

Of course, there are other dishonest things Rick Scott is doing here. One is the suggestion that his own policies have created the job growth which has occurred. I don't want to suggest his trade trips and marketing campaigns to prove Florida is "open for business" have born no fruit. I am sure there has been some good from all that, and they probably were the responsible thing to do. But understand that Scott has been in office less than a year. Any job growth which he could be considered responsible for could only have happened in the last few months.

For one thing, no real policy objectives could be accomplished by Scott until the legislative session, which did not happen until this Spring. The first few months of office, Scott literally could not get any laws passed because there was nobody in Tallahassee to write them. And with few exceptions, new laws don't take effect until the start of the new fiscal year on Oct. 1, about one week ago! This may be a surprise to Republicans, but government moves very slowly.

So Rick Scott's policies could not, in earnest, have done anything until eight days ago. Just another lie.

Now let us get back to those job growth numbers. I have noted before that Republicans supposedly obsessed with job creation certainly like firing government workers. That is something else coming to roost for Scott with the new fiscal year. All of the employee layoffs that had to come with cutting the budget mean an incredible amount of lost jobs, but Scott doesn't even think those count.

Why wouldn't they? If a teacher loses her job but two manufacturers gain employment, that only nets a job gain of one job, right? If we lay off four secretaries at the Florida Department of Health, but two people get jobs at McDonalds, that is a job loss of two jobs. But that is real math, not Republican math.

Rick Scott might say, with no basis is facts to back it up, that the private sector jobs created were somehow possible because of a reduction in money paid to government workers. Some of that would be because of reductions in taxes and regulations which give a little money back to the private sector so they can create more jobs. That money will be divvied out in small chunks though, so those two manufacturing jobs probably get paid about the same as the one teacher. Sounds like redistribution of wealth to me, but since teachers aren't really wealthy, I guess Rick Scott thinks it's ok. It isn't socialism if the rich don't pitch in.

But again, the fiscal year didn't start until October, and tax cuts to businesses won't set in for another year. The new laws go in effect now, but it will be 2012 before companies are paying out on new tax rates. What's that? Another lie!

Maybe I was wrong in that first paragraph. Rick Scott bundles so many fibs into every statement he says that 700,000 lies may be a conservative estimate.

What To Make of Cain

2011-09-26T11:13:00.002-04:00

I have been trying last night to figure what the Herman Cain win in Florida means, since I feel like I really should say something about it. But honestly, the biggest thing I see is that this Presidency 5 poll turned out as worthless as Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich said it would be.

Rick Scott predicted beforehand that the winner of the straw poll would become the nominee. But that was when he figured Rick Perry would win, and it seems he has been looking for a good reason to endorse Rick Perry (please, oh please make yourself an albatross around that Texan's neck). Since Herman Cain won, though, I think anyone would be foolish to say that guarantees the nomination. Rather, this thing just gives Cain enough steam to keep his campaign doors open for a few extra weeks.

In truth, none of this is going to matter once the real primaries and caucuses begin. The greatest demonstration of the polls meaninglessness is the rapid implosion of Michele Bachmann two weeks after winning the Iowa straw poll. Will Cain similarly implode? He seems less gaffe-prone, so probably not, but he also seems highly unlikely to become the nominee.

I tend to think Cain is running for running mate right now, but willingly concede it is silly to ever run for running mate. That is ultimately a decision of the nominee. But one lasting impact of this straw poll win is a demonstration Cain can appeal to Florida voters. Since many Republican pundits have been anxious to preemptively name Marco Rubio as the running mate, this likely takes a huge argument in favor of Rubio (that he would help win Florida) off the scales should it come down to a choice between Cain and Rubio.

Of course, that brings to mind what seems to this liberal observer what may be the best take-away. Between the birthers and the more-rabid-than-justified rantings of the tea party, it has seemed obvious in the last few years that racism, at least passive racism, was more of a problem for Obama than anyone wanted to say out loud immediately after his election. But as a black man wins the Florida straw poll, the first such poll held in the South and a poll which was only supported by the most conservative and most involved voters, it does seem the most active Republicans are anxious to make racism a part of the past. Is there a little tokenism at play? Likely, but then there is some place for that. Generally, it seems that Cain won because the party is hungry for a CEO with private sector credentials instead of a politician with a government resume.

I don't want to suggest too much should be read into a truly insignificant poll. This isn't a bellweather on where the state is headed next November. It isn't an indicator who the Republican nominee would be. But it offers a taste of what Republican party regulars in Florida want out of a nominee. And they don't want to play it safe with a mealy-mouthed Romney or play to the rabid base with a tough-talkin' extra-dumb Perry.

And that likely means this field is still more wide open than it appeared over the last two weeks.

Dreaming of Mars

2011-09-14T13:25:00.002-04:00

I hope this works.

From PCMag.com:
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The Space Launch System (SLS) will be able to carry the Orion crew vehicle, as well as cargo, equipment, and science experiments to Earth's orbit and beyond, NASA said. Officials are targeting its first mission for late 2017.

"This launch system will create good-paying American jobs, ensure continued U.S. leadership in space, and inspire millions around the world," NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, a former astronaut, said in a statement. "While I was proud to fly on the space shuttle, kids today can now dream of one day walking on Mars."
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As I wrote before, it was sad to see the shuttle go, but it was really long overdue. If NASA can get another working manned-flight program that runs efficiently and gets us to Mars, that will be a wonderful thing.

And a particularly strange element of modern political opinion is that conservatives absolutely decried Obama for not supporting manned space flight. Maybe it is a military thing, but the supposed budget hawks of today do not have the same problem Bob Dole did when he voted against putting a man on the moon.

I just hope this doesn't deter the progress of private spaceflight. Politics and government can be counted on to eventually disappoint, and I sure hope the kids at SpaceX can keep the dream alive if NASA cannot.

Heartless and Guiltless

2011-09-13T10:53:00.003-04:00

In all the coverage of frontrunner squabbling, a little noticed moment when the Tea Party crowd celebrated at the thought of innocent people dying may have indicated the broader problem with the Republican Party today. When Ron Paul suggested a 30-year-old who opted against health care and got sick should die with no chance at government support, the gathered masses went nuts.

As Mother Jones notes in the link, this is just the most recent sign the death and suffering are not reason for intervention but for celebration. Last week, a crowd cheered the fact Rick Perry had signed off on a record number of executions.

But this was the Republican base for Florida cheering Ron Paul's crazy remarks. And it was more disturbing to me to see the revelry than Paul's cold-hearted remarks. He is a crazy right libertarian, and it wouldn't surprise me if he wanted ambulances to pass a bleeding man on the road if it meant saving on government-purchased gasoline. (I do hope this reminds the anti-war crowd that sees the value of Paul in the debates to remember we do NOT need this man to actually become president).

The thing most striking to me, though, is that opponents to ObamaCare always said the hypothetical 30-year-old in Wolf Blitzer's question needed that choice to live without health insurance. That claim was the basis of Bill McCollum's so-far-successful lawsuit against ObamaCare on behalf of all of Florida. And it was always the top complaint from the right. I can hear my brother-in-law now saying 'Why shouldn't a guy who is young and healthy be able to say, I want to save the money and not buy insurance?"

The reason why is that a Republican will some day be in the White House. When that happens, the citizen with no insurance is screwed. Ron Paul said as much last night, and the crowd cheered.

People said Alan Grayson was uncivil suggested the GOP health care plan was 'Don't Get Sick,' and if you do, 'Die Quickly.' Last night, we learned most Republicans will cheer the young people who take their own advice all the way to fast grave.

Update: Grayson has actually responded to this now at HuffPost.

A World Event

2011-09-11T10:24:00.002-04:00

When the planes hit the World Trade Center, I was still asleep. Sept. 11 began for me with a phone call from my mother, a teacher who found herself in a school of high school students watching the news instead of studying Latin. She wanted to know what the paper was going to do, and what I would do to report on the crash.

I distinctively remember thinking this was a silly thing to ask. The buildings were still standing. A plane had hit the Pentagon and it was clearly an act of terrorism, but it just didn't seem at the time like the sort of story a newspaper in Florida would focus 100 percent of its resources upon.

My wife woke up and was more concerned. She saw the image and said 'That's the World Trade Center!' Quickly, she ran to grab our 1-year-old son, and she expressed anger that terrorists would bring their fight to our shores. But I simply didn't think it was that big a deal.

Then the first tower came down. From the next room, my wife screamed, 'Something is happening.'

I told my mother I had to go and was suddenly glues to the TV set. CNN's Aaron Brown was audibly shocked, peering through the smoke to try and figure if anything remained. As he declared the tower was truly gone, that was when 9/11 started for me. When the second tower collapsed, it felt inevitable.

I was at work within 10 minutes. Somehow, I knew my day would be long and grim. That by day's end, I would be speaking with people who had lost loved ones. A retired intelligence officer called me not long after I got to work and authoritatively stated the only terrorist group he felt could pull off so extravagent an attack. It was likely not the first time I heard of the group, but it was the time the name would stick with me. Al Quaeda.

We got many false reports through the day. Threats of car bombs were clearing out plazas in Washington. Disney World evacuated, which of course was a big deal for us in Central Florida. As it turned out, the planes in the morning caused the only destruction of the day, but it was enough.

I was on the phone with Rep. Cliff Stearns quickly. His office was among those that had not been evacuated. He figured Congress would declare war as soon as the Capitol was open. That never officially occurred, but of course, we have remained in an unofficial state of war since that day. I do recall being impressed with how much Stearns knew about the political struggles of mid-Asia, and felt we had an interesting perspective on the next few months of international news. Stearns was on displomatic missions to Afghanistan both before and after the fall of Kabul.

A photographer and I also went to a local bloodbank, where lined had formed and where people with no direct connection to the tragedy still felt a need to give back. A grown man was in tears in front of TV set there. I asked if he knew anybody. No, but the loss of life was just immense. If nothing else good happened that day, that transcendant connection between mankind was felt throughout the world.

And I did end up speaking to family for a victim, at least potentially. A girl at the local high school had a cousin in the Center. She waited in school throughout the day, watching the news and waiting for a family member to come and update her. Of course, that didn't really happen. Hope was held for many in this disaster that left chaos for days, and the WTC had no passenger roster. Three of four people did make it out. I never could get an update from the girl or her family.

The day was a moment in time that connected the world. I thought of my own short time living in New York a couple years ago. But everyone, even those who never step foot in the city, have memories somehow tied to that city.

Of course, the years since then have been profoundly changed, often for the worse. Our foreign policy was gripped by paranoia. Our focus, which had been overly focused on domestic issues, turned 100 percent to foreign matters. Sadly, the first steps toward economic collapse went unnoticed as a result. And we went about fighting the last war. Our enemy was a mafia capable of nihilism and mass destruction, but we still sought the modern versions of Germany and Japan to target with our military forces.

But the connection we all felt is something worth revisiting. Perhaps a decade later, we can view everything in a clear-eyed way. Maybe we can take a broader view of the country now, and not be so focused on the madmen who caused this. Osama is dead. Al Quaeda is in tatters. There will always be people intent on doing America harm, but we learned that day a decade ago that the world was largely on our side.

As I watch pictures of children this morning taking rubbings of names at the WTC memorial, I am reminded that an entire generation of children lives with the consequences of this day, but they also view it through the prism of history. The children holding crayons today are too young to recall 9/11 at all vividly. I think the rest of us have something to learn from them. And this country has the strength to do just that.

Roadblocking the Stimulus

2011-09-10T13:55:00.002-04:00

It is one thing to disagree with the policies of a president, but to intentionally prevent efforts from helping the state of Florida is destructive and unpatriotic. Sadly, it is no surprise at all that this would be Gov. Scott's response the Obama's jobs plan.

The president wants to create jobs? Well not in my state, says Mr. 700,000

From TBO:
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Gov. Rick Scott and top Florida Republicans are sending early signals they could reject the billions in federal aid that could flow to the state under President Barack Obama's jobs proposal.

Florida has a 10.7 percent unemployment rate that is higher than the national average. But Scott and GOP legislative leaders said the plan outlined by President Obama was too similar to the nearly $800 billion stimulus package that was approved by Congress back in 2009.
---

The article also quotes Speaker Dean Cannon saying Obama still "doesn't get it." I personally feel like the president finally "gets it" and realizes jobs are the issue he must place above health care, continuing unnecessary wars, coddling Wall Street and making clear to America he will negotiate every good idea away upfront.

But the actions of Scott and Cannon speak to something more nefarious. Informed people can disagree about policy, but standing in the way of your opponent's success, when that success would mean the restoration of America's economy, is another thing altogether.

Rick Scott has already said he doesn't want people in Florida earning a living from high speed rail. Now he is making sure nobody new gets employed in a job that is paid for with federal, out-of-state revenues.

Apparently, Republicans do not believe the problem is that too many people are out of work. It is that too many are employed. It should be no surprise since the this governor, who wants us to believe jobs are his first and only priority, responded to the state budget by vetoing numerous job-creating products.

Partisanship aside, I understand Rick Scott wants more jobs created in the public sector than private sector, and I respect all of his efforts to stimulate job creation there, but it has become apparent he will never allow the government to directly create, or in many cases even assist, in job creation.

Also important. Barack Obama was elected to the presidency. Whether you personally voted for him or not, it is not the role of Florida's governor to stand in the way of a federal effort to create jobs. Is this an experiment that could go awry? I guess it is possible, but the American people will judge Obama on the results soon enough. His ideas deserve the chance to succeed or fail on their own without the meddling of an ill-willed state executive .

This will hurt Scott in the long-run, as he is clearly stopping the creation of jobs more often than he is promoting it, and when third-parties measure his progress toward this 700,000 jobs in seven years goal, they will include the many minuses Scott was responsible for every time he turned away money could provide a middle-class family with a paycheck.

Until then, Rick Scott may doom the rest of us who live in Florida to watch jobs created in other states and hear a governor fiddle as the Sunshine State burns.

Drilling Himself Into a Hole

2011-09-06T22:15:00.002-04:00

Rick Scott has rarely backed off of a controversial remark, but he sure seemed to run like crazy away from his statement on Everglades drilling today.

From the Sun-Sentinel:
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"Gov. Scott has not called for an expansion of drilling in the Everglades," said spokeswoman Amy Graham in an email after the speech. "That discussion is not on the table."
---

Disappointing, really. This would have been a great tool to bludgeon the governor with. But let's not forget what started the confusion. A single statement widely regarded as an cautious ok to exploration: "With regard to the Everglades, I think we have to be very cautious if there's going to be any more drilling. It's my understanding, we haven't had any problems to date, so my goal would be to be very cautious."

Now, Scott didn't really stop there. He noted that Oil Well Road exists in Collier County, and if they named a road after it, it must be safe. Of course, the Everglades parks are navigable thanks to roads made by people who dreamed of mining resources, but which are not used for that purpose today because that was stupid.

I don't know quite how to react. Should I be horrified the state's top executive could even entertain this thought while sitting in a room of oil-hungry Economic Club guests? Relieved that he would back off so quickly following public disgust? Concerned that he could turn around just as quick? Amused that the head of Florida's GOP is so politically tone-deaf?

One thing I cannot help but question is where Scott's heart truly is after making the statement. His original stance was off the cuff. He was asked about whether drilling in the Everglades was cool, and seemed very clearly to say sure, if we're careful. And I can't think of any BPeason not to think oil companies would fail to be careful.

This isn't an issue where he should have been ambushed. Michele Bachmann made headlines a week ago by campaigning in favor of Glades drilling in Florida last week, and has maintained that position as some sort of manifest destiny for America to rape the land.

The take-away has to be that if Bachmann or another oil puppet becomes president, Rick Scott would not put up a fight to save the Everglades. He couldn't even fight a group of people in his natural base.

West's Religious Bigotry

2011-08-30T13:56:00.002-04:00

Allen West apparently believes our foreign policy should mimic that of the leaders of the crusades. In a bizarre weekly address this week (read about it on SaintPetersblog), he seems to suggest having leaders like Mubarak and Gaddafi in charge was the only thing stopping the rise of a new Ottoman Empire.

This is bizarre on so many levels, and it is scary this man has a seat in Congress instead of a corner in a mental institution.

Let's make this more clear than West's raving statements. He supports military dictatorships because he finds Muslims scary. Plain and simple.

Don't believe these right-wing douchebags when they say support religious expression. It is a lie.

Don't believe when they say they have the interests of the United States at heart with their foreign policy. That too is a lie.

West and his ilk want to have a Holy American Empire, a foreign superpower which imposes a religious belief. He supports a cause more nefarious than even the oil companies. His fantasy worldview envisions one where Muslims are either dead or kept at bay by power-hungry dictators who toss the opposition is political prisons. And should men like West grow in political stature within the United States, expect nothing short of that to become common practice here.

The only saving grace is that this latest rant from West is unlikely to find much traction in a world where few people get scared by the thought of the Ottomans coming back. That is a lousy boogeyman. But this sort of dogwhistle politicking will find an audience among bigots and xenophobes who dream of nothing short of genocide and ethnic cleansing when it comes to setting American foreign policy.

Coincidence?

2011-08-29T13:15:00.002-04:00

Funny the order with which these transition emails become public.

For example, the emails released Friday evening, a notorious time for politicians to release news they want lost in the shuffle, shows that Jeb Bush, the patron saint of Florida Republicans, was upset with how Gov. Rick Scott did business from the get-go.

Via HuffPo:
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Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was disappointed that Gov. Rick Scott fired the mother of an Army soldier who had just been killed in Afghanistan as well as others who worked in the governor's office, newly released emails show...

Bush followed her comment with another email in which he notes that other people, including Carolyn "Freda" King were let go. King, who first went to work for the governor's office when Bush was there, worked in the external affairs office of the governor. King's son, Army Pfc. Brandon King, was killed in Afghanistan in July 2010.

"All three are African American, non-political and good workers," Bush wrote to Wiles.
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Yes, the people trying to find these lost emails are working very hard to get them released as soon as possible. It is just coincidence that emails of a staunch conservative chiding this idiot governor and suggesting his transition team is a bunch of racists didn't get released until everybody was pro-occupied with their weekend plans.

But we know the email scourers are releasing this stuff as soon as they get it. For example, Bush had also emailed Scott before encouraging the new governor to "veto stupid bills" and to slash spending, and also letting the fellow Republican know he held "a desire for you to succeed."

That email was released early last week, guaranteeing it would get a lot of play in major papers across the state. It had the sort of contents that made you wonder why Rick Scott's people weren't blasting all this email out. Nothing in the email was politically hurtful to the governor. In fact, it had a popular former governor advising Scott to embark on some of the most controversial actions he has taken since being sworn in.

But predictably, the more embarrassing emails are the ones that seem the hardest to find, and which get released after most reporters are halfway to Disney World with their kids.

I am sure that is just a coincidence.