Stay at #8 and maybe this pick becomes a tradeable commodity which can be used to complement/supplement the youth, or perception of said youth. Go Top 3 and the SF situation is fixed, and go #1 to say bye to Bargnani.

I’d say picking at #8 is a mistake, given how long it takes for us to develop players.

My prediction? This franchise has been rather shit for some time, so look for Stern to do us a favor.

Six day away from the annual ritual that is the lottery. Don’t let the Raptors 2.8% chance of winning the lottery get you down, think of it this way: the Raptors have a 10% chance of getting a top three pick! That’s because 2.8 + 3.3 + 3.9 = 10. I’m not going to go back into draft history and figure out which eighth worst team got a top three pick or won the lottery because that would be silly, and also because the concept of 10% is kind of easy to understand.

You might’ve already read David Aldridge cheering for us by making an analogy about the Raptors being a fat girlfriend who was abused by her boyfriend. I’m not sure what he’s getting at, what’s clear is that David Aldridge doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

“Imagine a frontcourt of the 7-foot Bargnani, the 6-foot-11 Davis and 7-foot-2 center Jonas Valenciunas [sic]“

Ed Davis? Really? That may as well be 6-foot-11 Mikki Moore, or 6-foot-11 tall black dude. Size alone has rarely equated to actual advantage on the floor and right now that’s what Ed Davis is, and he doesn’t even look that imposing on the court. In fact, picking between Amir Johnson and Ed Davis as rotation players, you’d have to go with Johnson, with the only strike against him being the contract. BTW, who gets amnestied this summer?

The Raptors are in the Vegas summer league which runs from July 13-22, smack in the middle of Euro 2012. They got a big picture of Ed Davis in that article suggesting that he might be there, as well he should (even though he’s about to enter his third year and is getting consistent minutes). In fact, every Raptor not named Andrea Bargnani should be there.

I can’t recall much of anything significant resulting from summer league the past few years. Quincy Douby was the only speck of slight significance that came out of it, Joel Bosh provided some sardonic entertainment, and Ronald Dupree made it to camp for some reason. I suppose if Jonas Valaniunas makes it over in time, he would be the main focal point of the league from a Raptors perspective, and of course the pick we get in this draft.

Let’s play a game now, I mention a player you and tell me what year he was in summer league:

Curtis Stinson
Smush Parker
John Lucas
Cheikh Samb
Paul Davis
C.J. Giles
Rod Benson

So yeah, things are happening. Like this thread.

“He’s really good at getting to the line.” It’s spoken as a great compliment to a player and it makes sense. To a certain degree. Getting to the FT line generally equates to putting enough pressure on the defense that they’re forced to foul you. You always hear coaches and players setting targets about getting to the stripe, and speaking to how it’s the mark of maturity. I’ve always found this stat a little deceiving because it doesn’t reflect your ability to score, and can mask scoring inefficiency by pumping up PPG.

Looking at this stat without considering fourth quarter production is also an issue, because it doesn’t account for refs swallowing the whistle when the game gets tight, especially on the road. There is of course a stat that combines FT shooting, scoring, and three-point shooting into one metric, and that’s TS%. Before you even follow that link and look for where the Raptors players stand, let me tell you that you won’t find Andrea Bargnani or DeMar DeRozan as the top four Raptors players. In fact, the first of those two doesn’t appear till position #158 in the list.

If we look at FTA/36, the numbers look a little more respectable (DeRozan’s FTA/36 was a career-high 5.4 last season, and the same was true for Bargnani’s 6.0). The aforementioned issues of this stat, and the rather spanning formula of the TS% (PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA))) leave something to be desired, so let’s fall back to the stat that doesn’t quite get enough glory: FTA/FGM. In other words, it asks the question of how many FTs does a player take for every FG he makes? For the Raptors, the order is:

So, even though Bargnani is ahead in FTAs made, DeRozan has an edge in terms of rate. Looking at this for the whole NBA and considering 1000+ point scorers to filter out the dross, the top dogs are:

Dwight Howard 1.375
James Harden  1.194
John Wall     1.06
Kevin Love    0.97
Paul Pierce   0.873
DeMar DeRozan 0.868
Blake Griffin 0.834

What? DeRozan? Alright! A Raptor in the top ten of a stat. Turns out DeRozan’s getting to the line thingy is actually on par with the NBA’s top talents, now the question is can he scale that by upping his field goal percentage from 42.2% to something in the 45-47% range. As a reference, Harden is at 49.1% and Pierce is at 44.3%. Considering he shot 46.7% the year before, you’d think his performance this season is a bit of a low, so if he can get his mid-range shooting stroke back to second-year levels, he should be OK. The defense though, is another matter.

Lilly and Marshall

If the Toronto Raptors decide to renounce their rights to Jerryd Bayless in the next few weeks, they’ll have just a lone Point Guard under contract in Jose Calderon. Calderon, a soon-to-be 31-year old who has never averaged more than 34.3MPG and has only played a full season once, is the type of point guard that most certainly needs a caddy, both due to playing time restrictions and his defensive shortcomings. The Raptors could conceivably make a big splash in free agency (overpaying for a Jeremy Lin or Goran Dragic, perhaps), sign a restricted guard to an offer sheet (D.J. Augustin qualifies as a candidate), or bring Canada to a halt by somehow luring Steve Nash back “home.”

In reality, it seems more likely that the Raptors will use one of their three draft picks to find Jose’s next backup, unless a trade can be managed (and that’s not out of the question). So in summation, I have no clue who the backup point-man will be next year, whether it be a free agent, trade target, draft pick, or even Bayless himself again. And don’t give me that weak Ben Uzoh sauce, either. He of the world’s most tank-ish triple double is more of a third PG than a reliable back-up on a team with playoff aspirations.

But since I can’t analyze things like signings or trades until they happen, I can at least take a look at prospects who could potentially be the PG Of The Future or at least the Backup PG of the Present. The draft is pretty devoid of guard talent, so if the Raptors were set on this route they would likely try to acquire another first round pick (or slide down), but let’s do the analysis anyway, just to be thorough.

Round #1, Pick #8 (or 1-11)
This pick could wind up as Anthony Davis (2.8% chance), 2nd overall (3.3%), 3rd overall (3.9%), 8th (72.4%), 9th (16.8%), 10th (0.8%) or 11th (near-0 odds). So…we don’t know where this pick will come. Imagine that, uncertainty in a Blake Murphy offseason article!

I would assume if this pick lands in one of the more favorable spots, the Raptors will employ the “best player available” approach and ignore the point guard position. However, if it ends up at #8 or lower, the top two point guard prospects really come in to play, as they’re ranked in the 13-17 range by Chad Ford and Draft Express, and the Raptors Republic Reader Rankings had them both in the lottery. At #8, you can reach a bit for need, and the later this pick falls the less of a reach it would be.

Damian Lillard – Ford, DX, and myself all like Lillard slightly better, but the differences are universally negligible. The RRR had Marshall a spot higher, probably due to the narrative of him being a team-first, makes-everyone-better type. Still, Lillard has a more obvious upside. While some draw Bayless comparisons, he appears to be a much better version – he scored at will in college and was maybe the best lane penetrator in the country. While he didn’t find teammates as much as you’d like, he showed impressive range and servicable defense while ranking second in the entire nation in PER. Because he went to Weber State, some will question his numbers and how he’ll fare against other top guards, so the team workouts will be paramount for his draft stock. Based on his floor as a Microwave Man and his (admittedly generous) ceiling as a Westbrook-type scoring threat, I’d be excited about Lillard coming to the Raptors as high as the #8 pick.

Kendall Marshall – Marshall might be a safer pick because he has the UNC pedigree, the team-first reputation, and the narrative of UNC’s offense falling apart without him in the NCAA tournament. With that said, he shows little in the way of scoring ability and his shot isn’t fantastic. His basketball IQ and court vision are both otherworldy, and it’s difficult to see this intelligent a player completely failing at the next level, so his floor is sufficiently high. Defensively, he’ll probably be better off guarding bigger point-men, which may lend itself to some cross-defending if paired with a smaller two-guard (not relevant for the Raptors, though it does mean he could play with Jose). I’d be okay with Marshall just as high as Lillard for the Raptors, but my preference remains Lillard due to the enormous upside.

Limbo Range – Late First Rounders
Without a second 1st round pick, the Raptors will probably miss out on the opportunity to draft this next group of guards.

Tony Wroten Jr. – His potential is among the highest in the entire draft, regardless of position, but he also has the highest potential for a quick flame-out. Wroten possesses the vision and quickness of an elite NBA guard but certainly not the IQ, and his draft position will come down almost entirely to his pre-draft interviews, I would think. For the Raptors, he’d be intriguing as a combo-guard who could play with Jose but also run the second unit. I don’t see him being in the plans due to his projected 15-22 range.

Marquis Teague – Teague was expected to be the top point guard in this draft class at the season’s onset, but he struggled for a chunk of the season and his value dropped. He still has the speed, vision, and finishing ability of an elite NBA prospect, but his lack of performance and jump shot make him a question mark. Given a couple of years to grow into the role, I could see him succeeding as a lead guard. I don’t see him being in the plans due to his projected 18-26 range.

Tyshawn Taylor – Taylore may slip until #37, but no mocks I saw had him fall that low. Still, picks outside of the lottery are never reliable, and a lot can happen for these 1st-round bubble players in workouts. I don’t really doubt that Taylor can score at the NBA level, but I do question how much of a point guard he can become given his poor decision making and propensity to look for his own shot first. He’s a plus defender, just for the record. I don’t see him being in the plans due to his projected 25-35 range.

Second Round, Pick #37
I should reiterate that it’s difficult to project where players will go beyond the lottery, so I could have grouped all of the second round prospects together. With that said, I split them based on their projected range since one prospect in particular sticks out as a target at #37.

Tomas Satoransky – DX lists him as a combo-guard, ESPN as a small forward. I’m not touching him with the idea of him being a one.

Scott Machado – Machado would be a really nice target with this pick, and I like him better than most players projected to go in this range. a Four-year player from Iona, Machado flew under the radar this year despite leading the nation in assists at 9.9 per game. He could actually sneak into the first round, and by attending the New Jersey workouts (only one other potential first rounder is attending), he’s clearly doing what he can to up his stock. If his size hurts him in workouts and camps, he could be a steal at #37 for the Raptors, as he’s a strong penetrator and drive-and-kick passer, making him an ideal fit in a pick-and-roll heavy offense. His rankings range from late-1st to mid-2nd, so your guess is as good as mine if we’ll have a shot to grab him here.

Second Round, Pick #56
The gap between the #56 pick and an undrafted free agent signing is almost nil. These picks are usually used on European “stash” players, simply because you retain their rights for multiple years, whereas a domestic #56 pick may not be good enough at present to crack a roster. None of these guards would get the fan base excited, but they’re worth noting in the event that Colangelo wants to replace Uzoh with a fifth-guard type late.

Tu Holloway – Holloway’s numbers actually regressed as a senior, and he has a borderline 2nd round projection right now. He’s a smart defender and has the quickness to be effective in isolation, but he lacks a shot and will struggle guarding larger guards.
J’Covan Brown – Brown is a super-me-first player, putting up over 20 points at Texas as a Junior but doing little else to help the team. He has shown range and an obvious ability to score, but his upside might be a Microwave Man off the bench. The best thing abot Brown being in the draft is the numbers of touches it opens up for Myck Kabongo at Texas this year.
Casper Ware – Ware is a diminutive guard (5’10″, 170) who can score prolifically thanks to his quicks and handle. He’ll obviously struggle to defend any even average-sized player, but his quick hands do produce steals. He’s another Microwave Man candidate, a typical “two in a one’s body,” but hey, the team has to replace Barbosa, right?
Josep Franch – The lanky Spaniard gets postitives for shooting, smarts, and savvy on scouting reports, but I have not seen him play a minute, so I’m really in no place to judge.
Jordan Taylor – Taylor lost some of his offensive game this year, shooting worse and scoring less, but his defense and basketball IQ still make him an intriguing end-of-the-rotation player. He could play minutes simply by way of being a mistake-free, takes-nothing-off-the-table type.

It certainly does feel like a weak point guard class having run through the top-10 or 11 candidates, and that’s probably why a large portion of the fan base is clamoring for the Dragic’s, Lin’s, Augustin’s, or Bayless’. They’re not wrong, it’s just that those are generally known commodities that will command fair market prices (if not more), and there’s serious value in locking in a guard for the next few years on a rookie scale deal. There’s also value in “drafting your own,” but more in the “it’s impossible to overpay these guys” sense than any intangible feeling of attachment. Basically, the cost of one of these players is simply the pick their drafted with, not years, dollars, cap space, and expectations. I certainly wouldn’t reach for a point guard if we land a top-3 pick, but I’m a little bit in love with Lillard and Machado in their respective ranges, especially if Colangelo can craft something for a late first round pick.

And…well, that’s all. It’s some content.

Whatever good work Tony Parker had done for the French, Alexis Ajinça ruined it. Now it’s another Frenchman who is on the radar, and it’s Nicolas Batum, the Blazers RFA who is rumoured to be the last guy Portland will lock up (considering how he’s got a $6.5 cap-hold and will likely make more than that in his next deal). You might recall Batum as being drafted #25 by the Blazers in 2008, the year the Raptors and their renowned international scouting staff decided to flip the #17 pick for something that resembled Jermaine O’Neal’s carcass.

You don’t need me to write the rest of this but I will do so in short bursts. Raptors. Small Forward. Sucks. Batum. Small Forward. Batum. RFA. Money. Colangelo. Batum. Throw. At.

There you go, that’s how easy it is to write a post these days. If you really want some analysis, maybe you should check out Tim Chisholm’s small forward list, it’s hardly realistic and mostly fantasy but a guy’s got a churn out a piece, now doesn’t he?. Actually, it sort of reminds me of myself when I watch the The Bachelor: Yeah, I’d do her..and her…prolly her too…yup…meh..why not…

Where do the Raptors, who are at $41M (cap is $58M) get that extra money to throw at Batum? Well, Jerryd Bayless of course. There’s no need to even think about picking up his $4.1M qualifying offer, when you can get Ben Uzoh to do basically the same shit for free. If Jim Kelly ever proves to be worth even 1% of the airtime he gets on raptors.com starting in about two weeks, we might even find a point guard in the draft who can play defense and doesn’t just pretend to do so. This man says to buy a pick for $3M and get Damian Lillard, and don’t talk to me about his height!

TOTALLY RANDOM STAT OF THE DAY – ANDREA BARGNANI FOULS THE LEAST ON THE RAPTORS AND JAMAAL MAGLOIRE THE MOST

Speculate on why that might be (oh, this should be fun).

As we’re always looking out for our readers, I’ve found an awesome deal on a jersey. So awesome that the guy isn’t even listing a price, just asking you to pay what you can. There’s only one small catch.

You might also want to know that Jonas V won an award(s) of some sort in Europe. Actually, this is like an Employee of the Month type award more than anything. Still, though. We might want to hang that in the rafters at the ACC.

From an X’s and O’s point of view, the thing that sticks out for me from this weekend is Philly’s decision to have a guy guard the inbounder when they knew the Celtics were going to looking to throw it in the back and run the clock out. In that situation I’m a believer that you get all your guys in either a deny position or a fouling position. Granted, Philly did have a foul to give so it was going to be tough to get the ball back for a chance to tie with three seconds left, but still, in theory you don’t guard the inbounder there. IMHO.

On the Raptors front, things are dead quiet as you can tell by glancing at the Latest Web Articles section. The next date of significance is the lottery on May 30th, which will provide the Raptors with a sense of what players they should be bringing in for workouts. A nice enough piece speculated on some options the Raptors might have if they get creative with the draft. If I know my Bryan Colangelo, he’s no good at that so there goes that. I expect him to draft a shooting guard with the pick because we got nothing there right now.

I sense it’s going to be a positional pick, which could be a mistake as this humble servant of yours believes that the Raptors definitely have to go the “best player available” route and not the “needs” route, so if it happens that Jared Sullinger is available, you grab him and figure out your options. Targeting positions in the draft is risky with higher picks, because you’re essentially acquiring fit at the expense of talent. Looking at the draft from a position point of view, there are arguably needs at the 1, 2, and 3 positions, leaving the Raptors with a range of options. If you subscribe to the theory that the 4 is up for grabs too, you’re not alone on that either and here’s why.

Remember all those years we spent building around Chris Bosh, knowing fully well that he’s not actually a centerpiece to build around? We kept plugging away, drafting around him, signing free-agents around him and it never quite worked. We hoped that he would somehow transform into the player we wanted him to be, when his ceiling had long been hit and he was what he was. We wasted five years in that process, knowing deep-down that it was a fruitless proposition to begin with. Now, here’s what I don’t want: I don’t want the Raptors to repeat the same mistake with Andrea Bargnani.

We drafted Bosh to play alongside Carter, hoping it would be the combo to take us forward. We then drafted Bargnani to play alongside Bosh, thinking that was the answer. We then drafted DeRozan to play alongside Bargnani…in each combination, there’s been a lead man and a secondary option. Batman and Robin type deal, except it’s more like Beavis and Butthead, but you get the point. In every mini-rebuild the Raptors have undertaken, they’ve carried forward a remnant of the past which has more often than not been, well, overrated.

Back to the point about the PF also being open. The main argument for that is that if the Raptors truly want to turn a new leaf they should shred the tie to the past, and if that’s not feasible (and it might not be), management need not make the mistake of portraying Bargnani to the fans and to themselves as something he’s not: a franchise guy. We’re still looking for our franchise guy, it doesn’t look like it’s DeRozan, and the hope has shifted to Jonas Valanciunas. Casey recently said that at the worst he’s a Joakim Noah, so we have a high enough starting point for him. In two years, though, he better be the clear-cut best player on this team, or this vicious cycle only bears to repeat.

Many believe Nash instead of chasing a title with a contender for a lesser salary will go back to Canada and the Raptors for a three-year deal and help bring their young players along

Smith calls this ‘informed speculation’ (listen to Joseph Casciaro’s solid interview with Sam Smith), and at first glance, there are couple things at play that could make this a reality:

• Nash recently took the reigns of Canada Basketball, so being based out of Toronto seems to be a no-brainer for someone running a program that is based out of Toronto (I assume it’s based here).
• He would be treated like a god while leading and mentoring a young Raptor’s team. This would also bleed into his Canada Basketball duties as the kids on the squad would benefit from an up-close-and-personal look at him in action.
• He has demonstrated time-and-again that loyalty is more important than winning a championship; he could have easily asked to be shipped out of Phoenix the last couple years to a championship calibre team, but he didn’t, and has towed the company line for the Suns. I’m sure he would kill for a championship, but it seems he values other ‘things’ above getting one – gotta love principals.

1. What happens to Calderon? To get a Steve Nash to come to Toronto, you’re looking at a 3yr/$30m type deal, which would commit more than a third of the Raptors payroll to two aging point guards on a rebuilding team. I’m not arguing either of their value to a rebuilding team, just the actual investment being made especially considering Bayless is more than serviceable as a backup.
2. Does Calderon or Kleiza get amnestied? Before you rip my head off, amnestying Calderon would be retarded (Colagelo’s phone would be ringing off the hook if Nash came to town). Kleiza on the other hand, could be a candidate. Yes, it would be nice to have him here to help Jonas acclimate, but at just under $5m/year, that money could be better spent on an Ersan Ilayasova or something (sign me up for that btw).
3. Would the Raptors draft a point guard this year? That would be the second domino (the 3rd being Calderon gets traded). Nash would obviously be the starter, but I don’t see him playing more than 30-32 minutes a game. Bayless has shown growth this season, but I’m not sold on him being a starter; even if he is, the Raptors need a third pg who can be groomed to start or come off the bench once succession falls into place.

My $0.02? I make this move in a second. Nash is an upgrade to Calderon in all facets of the game; even considering his age (31.6min 12.5pts 10.7ast 3.0rebs 20.29per vs 33.9min 10.5pts 8.8ast 3.0rebs 16.73per). You could get good value for Calderon, while maintaining a high calibre of play at the point by bringing him in.

I’m excited for this summer; player movement is going to be insane.

So I’ve been watching a bunch of Jonas videos over the last few days and getting a sense of his offensive game. There’s a hook in there, a developing jumper, some back to the basket stuff, but mostly, I get a sense that he’s going to be a big pick ‘n roll guy in his rookie year. The Raptors haven’t had one of those for ages (Davis?), even Chris Bosh elected to pop more than roll on those screens. Given Jonas’ strength, you figure the Raptors need a suitable point guard to run those pick ‘n rolls and honestly, I can’t think of a better available guy (other than Deron Williams) than Jose Calderon to do that. Add in his expiring deal, Casey’s man-love for him, and Jose Calderon is here next season. Follow that up with a smaller, reasonable contract and you’re on your way to the first Raptors lifer. Jersey retired? Of course not, you got to have higher standards and not let emotion get in the way.

I don’t know much about the draft, except that the guy we’re going to get isn’t going to make much of a difference next year so I don’t bother with that stuff, especially not when you’re slotted at #8. I prefer free-agents, they’re a known product and of the products I know at the small forward spot (one which BC agrees needs to be sorted out, and where he’s shown a propensity to fill with a “biggish” guy like Turkoglu and Kleiza), I see someone like Ersan Ilyasova as someone Colangelo can be interested in. Other than having a little of James Franco going for him, he’s also got this according to his outdated ESPN Insider profile:

+ Pick-and-pop big man who can play physical and rebound. Will force shots.

+ Limited leaping ability. Doesn’t block shots and a below-average finisher.

+ Can defend post but struggles to guard perimeter. Good foul shooter.

Ilyasova regressed a bit from his promising 2009-10 campaign, missing 22 games with injury and looking a step slower when he played. He didn’t shoot any worse or better, but he was a lot less active offensively, losing 2.5 points off his 40-minute average. This was the exact opposite of what Milwaukee needed, as it was desperate for anyone who could generate a halfway decent look. The one positive from his season was that he shot a scintillating 89.4 percent from the line.

Defensively, Ilyasova was pretty average. His listed weight (235 pounds) may make him seem like a liability, but he relishes physical play and has no problem banging with bigger players. Plus, he takes tons of charges. Ilyasova’s problem is his lack of athleticism and average mobility, which makes it hard for him to defend the rim and help guards in pick-and-rolls.

I can add that he had his best season last year, one where he started 41 of 60 games and surprised everyone. Contract year performer or a man turning a page?

He was pretty candid about what it’ll take to acquire his services in a recent interview, basically saying that it’s up to the highest bidder.

“When I look at it I have to remember that it’s a business,” said Ilyasova. “Some teams overseas wanted to buyout my contract but I wanted to finish this season in the NBA. This is where I want to be right now, but we will see what happens in the future. Financially, whoever pays me more will be the team that I decide to sign with.”

At least the man’s honest and doesn’t pretend to have an allegiance to a Wisconsin club, which nobody would believe anyway. Bryan Colangelo’s already said that he’s accepted the fact that he’ll have to pay above-market value for free agents, so I can see him splurging money here as well.

One thing’s for sure, this RFA isn’t staying with Bucks as they’ve already got Drew Gooden and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute locked up long-term. To think of it, it’s surprising that the Bucks didn’t ship him off at the deadline.

So, free-agents I predict so far:

- Goran Dragic
- Ersan Ilyasova

The results are in. So how do we, the RR Readership, value each draft prospect? How do we rank the potential lottery picks? How does this stack up with “expert” or consensus rankings? Well, let’s have a look.

The Results – Full Table
Below you’ll see the full table of results for any player that received a top-14 nomination. Players were awarded 14 points for a #1 position, 13 for a #2, and so on, down to a single point for the #14 position. While this has some flaws as a methodology (should the #13 pick really get twice as many points as the #14?) it does do a good job with the prospects who come up on most ballots, and I think the “points” rankings follow a logical order, and match up well with what would be a ‘consensus’ positioning from the ballots.

The Results – Lottery Mock Comparison
The chart below shows how the RR Reader Rankings for the top-14 players compared to those of some other top draft sites. Just for a reference of Readers vs. Writers, I included my own top-14 as well as Arsenalist’s. Again,the RR Reader top-14 here is based on the top-14 point getters from the table above.

The Results – R4′s Top-14

#1 – Anthony Davis
Blake’s Ranking: #1
Most Common Position: #1 (34 of 38 ballots)
Notes: He’s been considered the league’s consensus #1 for most of the year, and it was surprising that 4 different people thought he should go lower (with one even ranking him as low as #4). Still, it looks like most people are okay with The Unibrow being the face of this franchise, if the Raptors were to be so lucky in the lottery.

#2 – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Blake’s Ranking: #2
Most Common Position: #2 (27 of 38 ballots)
Notes: Three people who didn’t like Davis gave MKG the nod at #1, while one person didn’t like him until #4. It seems he’s the consensus consollation prize after Davis, and it makes sense since this team could use the high-motor, team-first wing play he brings to the table.

#3 – Bradley Beal
Blake’s Ranking: #4
Most Common Position: #3 (16 of 38 ballots)
Notes: After Davis and MKG, every prospect had a pretty wide range of rankings. Beal was slotted anywhere from #1 (once) to #10 (once), although most saw him as the #3 (16) or #4 (11) pick. Beal’s offensive upside is obvious, but the question among the readership seems to be whether he’d be an upgrade over DeRozan or not.

#4 – Harrison Barnes
Blake’s Ranking: #6
Most Common Position: #5 (11 of 37 ballots)
Notes: After the top-3, every single player was left off of at least one ballot. Basically, people have said beyond Beal, we’re not convinced of anyone as a lottery pick, unanimously. I think that’s a bit extreme, because Barnes’ floor is that of a bench scorer, with a significantly greater upside. I ranked him a little on the lower end of his range (he was slotted in the 3-6 range on 31 of 38 submissions).

#5 – Thomas Robinson
Blake’s Ranking: #3
Most Common Position: #4 (11 of 36 ballots)
Notes: Readers seem split on Robinson, and my guess would be that some don’t like the idea of adding another non-elite PF to the mix with Ed Davis and Amir Johnson already in-house. I understand the concern, but I really liked what I saw from him throughout the college season and think he could be a difference maker. Robinson’s range spanned from #2 (4 times) to unranked, though he was in the 2-5 range on 27 of 38 ballots.

#6 – Andre Drummond
Blake’s Ranking: #10
Most Common Position: #6 (11 of 35 ballots)
Notes: I’m not necessarily sour on Drummond in general, I just don’t love the idea of trying to develop multiple bigs at the same time. If he slipped this far, which doesn’t seem likely, the Raptors would have an interesting opportunity to develop a beastly defensive front-court. Some love Drummond (he was #2 thrice, #3 thrice, and #4 twice), but he was also unranked three times and ranked out of the top-10 another two times.

#7 – Perry Jones III
Blake’s Ranking: #5
Most Common Position: #7 (10 of 32 ballots)
Notes: Like scouts, our readership seems to love him or hate him. I think he was mis-used as a big man in college and could be a dominant wing player with the right tutelage, and at #5 I don’t feel he’s riskier than anyone else available. He didn’t go higher than #4, and was unranked half a dozen times, but 6-10 seems to be his ranger for the Raps (26 of 38 ballots).

#8 – Kendall Marshall
Blake’s Ranking: #9
Most Common Position: #9 (8 of 34 ballots)
Notes: As we hit the point-guard part of the lottery, we start to see whether people choose based on need or talent. Marshall had a wider ranger than Damian Lillard, ranking both higher and lower, with a much wider spread of picks. It seems while a handful of people believe in Marshall’s leadership and ability to make others better (he ranked #9 or better on 23 of 38 ballots), still nearly half the respondents had him #10 or later, or even outside of the lottery altogether. Marshall and Lillard, it appears, are a coin-flip apart for our collective ranks.

#9 – Jeremy Lamb
Blake’s Ranking: #7
Most Common Position: #8 (6 of 38 ballots)
Notes: Jeremy Lamb is officially your “nobody knows where to slot him” award winner – he was placed everywhere from 5th to 12th at least three times, and was also 13th, 14th, or unranked a couple of times. When the “consensus” position is chosen just 15% of the time, you know there’s no sure spot for him. It’s going to be a nervous draft night for Lamb, I guess. I wonder if people used him as a “filler pick” when they didn’t want to rank someone at a certain level, using him to move around other picks.

#10 – Damian Lillard
Blake’s Ranking: #8
Most Common Position: #8 (10 of 33 ballots)
Notes: Lillard’s most common rank was higher than Marshall’s, again illustrating that his range was more narrow and he and Marshall are a bit of a coin-flip. Lillard went unranked a few times but primarily went 7th or 8th (17 of 38 ballots).

#11 – Terrence Jones
Blake’s Ranking: #11
Most Common Position: #13 (6 of 25 ballots)
Notes: After the top-10, things started to get really messy, with prospects only appearing on 60% of ballots or so. This makes sense, as the later in the draft you get the more you’d expect variance in opinions. Jones went as high as #5 (once) but I don’t think that’s realistically his draft range. #11 is technically the Raptors “worst case” lottery scenario, but it seems at least half of us would be OK with Jones in this spot if it comes to that.

#12 – Jared Sullinger
Blake’s Ranking: Unranked
Most Common Position: #9 (6 of 25 ballots)
Notes: It appears we mirror the media and scouts on Sully, as some love him (he ranked #5 once, and 9th or higher 11 times), while 13 people didn’t even see him as a lottery pick. Sullinger will never be an above-the-rim NBA player, but I think his floor is a 3rd big with his offensive polish. With that said, given the Raptors current make-up it just makes far more sense to swing for upside or draft for need.

#13 – Austin Rivers
Blake’s Ranking: #14
Most Common Position: #11, #12 and #14 (7 each of 30 ballots)
Notes: Rivers seems to be locked into the late-lottery range, slotting from 11th to 14th 23 times. Rivers would seem to have a high floor with his NBA legacy and Duke pedigree, but a second year in school really would have helped him. He has “late bloomer” written all over him as an NBA prospect because it could take him a year or two to find and accept his role (and it’s not super-duper-star, whether he thinks so or not).

#14 – Tyler Zeller, Quincy Miller
Blake’s Ranking: Unranked, #12
Most Common Position: #11 (4 of 12 ballots), #14 (4 of 12 ballots)
Notes: Zeller and Q-Millz tied in points, neither ranked above #10 (three times each), and they were both left off of 26 ballots altogether. This late, the draft and rankings are a crap-shoot, but RR Nation seems to like Zeller’s floor as a bench big with energy, or Miller’s upside after a year or two of further developing his game.

Others Receiving Votes
Blake’s Ranking: Royce White #13
Notes: I don’t know Royce White personally, but I can’t see someone with an anxiety disorder being comfortable in a new country. With that said, in strictly basketball terms he’d be a steal outside of the lottery. John Henson appeared on a hanful of ballots, and I feel like he’d have been on more if people thought he could play the wing effectively. Terrence Ross fits the bill of “shooter” in our “needs” column. Tony Wroten Jr and Marquis Teague are questionable PGs in the lottery but potential steals later in the draft. Moe Harkless, Arnett Moultrie, Andrew Nicholson, Kris Joseph, Meyers Leonard, William Buford, and Jae Crowder all received at least one top-10 vote but not enough late-lottery love to crack the top-14. Dion Waiters, Evan Fournier, Doron Lamb, Jeff Taylor, Darius Miller, Darius Johnson-Odom, and Fab Melo also received votes, bringing the list of potential lottery picks to an astounding 34.

This was a lot of fun….we obviously won’t be able to do something similar for our 2nd round pick (it would be all over the place, and far too contingent on what happens in the first round), but hopefully this fosters some more discussion to carry us through these awful, hurtful, awesome, exciting, why-can’t-we-be-there NBA playoffs. Please try to keep the discussion clean and friendly…or at the very least try to keep race/background out of it. Attack the idea, not the person. Or something like that.