And now it’s down to four.

Well, one thing’s for sure. These playoffs have highlighted the difference between the East and the West. While every series in the West has been fun and exciting, the East has been like the final season of The Office. Entertaining once in a while, frequently painful to watch, and really only watched by the die hard fans¹.

I find every round gives you something a little different. The stakes are a little higher, the competition a little tougher, and there’s always more storylines to follow.

And like the first round, there were a few lessons I learned (or had confirmed).

THE WARRIORS ARE BETTER CONSTRUCTED THAN THE THUNDER

The Thunder won 13 games more than the Warriors, and have been the team-building model many have wanted to follow throughout the league. In three years, they were able to draft Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and James Harden, three of whom will undoubtably appear on this year’s All NBA team, and go from the lottery to the Finals in just four years.

Sam Presti has been touted as one of the best GMs in the NBA and the Thunder have been on the forefront of the analytics revolution. Plus, teams are looking to pick their front office clean, in their search for GMs, just as they’ve previously done with the Spurs (Rich Cho, the current GM of the Bobcats was the Thunder assistant GM), which has be one of the greatest compliments a franchise can have.

So what exactly is the problem?

Well, both the Thunder and Warriors lost All Stars (and the team’s second best player) to injury early in the first round, and while neither team made it out of the second round, the Warriors barely missed David Lee’s presence while Oklahoma went from having the league’s most efficient and high scoring offense, to a team that averaged less than 90 points a game against Memphis.

Obviously Russell Westbrook is a better player than David Lee, and more instrumental to the Thunder offense than Lee is, but it goes deeper than that. Golden State was able to overcome the loss of Lee better because they had more weapons.

While Kevin Durant and Kevin Martin were really the only Thunder players, outside of Westbrook, who had the ability to create their own shot and score consistently, Golden State had Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry and even Harrison Barnes.

Serge Ibaka was Oklahoma’s third leading scorer, but all he proved was that he can’t create for himself and desperately needs to work on his post up game.

Of course, Scott Brooks’ rather pedestrian offensive sets didn’t help, but that brings up the question of whether or not he’s even the right coach to take the team to a title.

But while Sam Presti has surrounded Durant and Westbrook with role players who fill specific roles, but don’t have the ability to expand on that, Golden State features a roster full of players who can step up, if needed, making it more likely they’ll be able to withstand droughts or injuries to their key players better than the Thunder.

And Golden State features more two-way players who can score AND defend consistently (I’m looking at you Kevin Martin).

If you take away Golden State’s two best players and Oklahoma’s two best players, which team would you rather have?

BIG MEN BEATS SMALL BALL

This season we supposedly saw the evolution of the NBA towards small ball, highlighted by Miami’s domination despite not having a legit center on the team for the majority of the season. There were other examples, though. The Knicks won 54 games with Carmelo Anthony as their starting power forward, and Denver won 57 games with Danilo Gallinari often times the tallest players on the court.

And then came the playoffs. Denver was bounced in the first round and the Knicks struggled against and aged and injury depleted Celtics team and their vaunted offence (3rd most efficient offence in the league during the regular season) came to a crashing halt against the Pacers.

Three of the four teams left also happen to have three of the biggest front lines in the league. And the fourth team happens to feature LeBron James, who is bigger and stronger than most starting power forwards in the league, but also happens to be the most dominant offensive player in the NBA and one of the best defensive players. Miami could run anything and be pretty successful at it.

I think the whole small ball revolution thing is overstated and more likely a trend, much like Mike D’Antoni’s 7-seconds or less was. It’s definitely useful, especially in the regular season and in short stretches in the playoffs, but the change we’ve seen has been done more out of necessity, rather than due to it being a better way to play. The dearth of quality centers and lack of good 2-way power forwards has made going small a good way to compensate while knowing few teams will be able to punish you for going small.

Is there any doubt that Oklahoma would be a much better playoff team if they had a big man who could score in the post, as well as defend? They certainly wouldn’t have missed Westbrook’s presence nearly as much if they had a post threat that demanded double teams and could open up the shooters more.

If you want to be a force in the playoffs, you need to be able to compete with the big boys, and you can’t do that without a big front line.

This is obviously good news for the Raptors. For those lamenting Colangelo turning down James Harden for Jonas Valanciunas, maybe it wasn’t such a bad thing. Harden is obviously the better player, but if the Raptors want to be successor in the playoffs, they’ll need a guy like Valanciunas.

GOOD COACHING MATTERS

There is a line of thinking that coaching is overrated. The claim is that there are only a small handful of coaches that even make a difference, so unless Gregg Popovich is walking through the door, it really matters very little who the coach is. It explains why we see so many of the same coaches recycled throughout the league, and why Vinnie Del Negro still has a job.

And that may be true, to a degree, in the regular season. In the playoffs, however, coaching matters. Over a seven game series, it’s the adjustments that coaches make that are often the difference between going home early and staying for another round.

After getting blown out by the Nets in the first game of the first round, Tom Thibodeau made some adjustments that slowed the pace and shut down the lane. If the Bulls weren’t being coached by Thibodeau, they probably would have started their summer vacation a couple of weeks earlier.

Memphis wasn’t necessarily a more talented team than the Clippers, but they were definitely better coached. And Lionel Hollins is a better coach than Scott Brooks, too.

That’s why, if I was Memphis , I would lock Hollins up long term, offering him a 10 year contract. It tells the players that this is his team, and it allows the organization to create a system around him and acquire players that fit that system.

Well coached teams play differently than regular teams. No matter what the talent level, they usually do what they’re supposed to do, even if the final result isn’t what they’d hoped. Obviously it helps to have players who fit what the coach wants to run, but the wrong players will tend to play better with a good coach.

Is Dwane Casey the type of coach that makes a difference? Do his teams seem well coached to you? Do his players develop well?

I’ll leave that for you to decide.

DEFENSE STILL MATTERS

Defense has alway been a key ingredient in Championship teams. And despite more of a focus on small ball, and a shortage of good two way big men, the top three defensive teams all made it to the Conference Finals. And Miami isn’t far behind, at 9th, in defensive efficiency.

I’ve always talked about how the deeper you get in the playoffs, the more likely weaker defensive players will be exploited, and those weak links on defense will become more and more difficult to overcome.

That’s why it’s important to build a team with a good defensive base from the start, and not have players that you need to cover for. Because if you have any Championship hopes for your team, you know that you’ll get to a point when you can’t cover for those players, and you’re likely to end up losing because of them.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE CONFERENCE FINALS

San Antonio vs Memphis: San Antonio in 6

Truth be told, I’m writing this after their first game, but that didn’t change my prediction.

I have a difficult time watching Memphis in the Conference Finals for a couple of reasons. The first is because I know in some different reality, they are still the Vancouver Grizzlies and I’m anxiously awaiting the franchise’s first Conference Finals home game, where I’ll be sitting, cheering them on in person.

The second reason is because this is a team that came into the league the same time as the Toronto Raptors, and didn’t even make the playoffs for their first 8 seasons, finishing below the Raptors in the standings for all but one of those years. And now they have made the playoffs more times than the Raptors and have gone deeper than the Raptors ever have.

But that’s not why I’m picking them to lose in six. I honestly wouldn’t have a problem seeing them get to the Finals, especially now that the guy who was responsible for ripping the Grizzlies out of Vancouver is no longer associated with the club: Michael Heisley.

Memphis is an excellent defensive team and very well coached. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are both underrated, and they have some very good role players. But their offense is below average and San Antonio is simply a better team on both ends of the floor.

Miami vs Indiana: Indiana in 6

Just kidding. I wanted to see if you were still paying attention. Actually, I’m picking Miami in 5, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they sweep the Pacers. While the Pacers defense is excellent, like Memphis, their offense leaves something to be desired, and Miami will exploit that. David West isn’t big enough to take advantage of Miami’s lack of interior defense, and Roy Hibbert simply isn’t enough of an offensive threat to make the Heat pay.

So MLSE has decided to ask Colangelo back….in a corporate capacity.

If you’re a fan of Colangelo and think he’s done a good job, it’s obviously good news he’s staying, but bad news he’s not running the basketball side anymore. If you, like me, think he’s done a poor job building the team, you’re happy he’s no longer making any more basketball decisions, but him staying on will most likely have dire consequences on the basketball side.

Now, on it’s own, the decision to ask Colangelo to stay on in a corporate capacity is a smart one, because, while I don’t think he has a good enough basketball mind to build a contender, he’s shown to be VERY adept at the business side of his job. The Raptors have remained profitable, even while losing, and he’s got all the corporate-speak down to be able to survive in the boardroom indefinitely.

But let’s say MLSE is able to lure Ujiri away. Let’s say he decides he wants to make some changes. With Colangelo looking over his shoulder from the corporate side, how comfortable do you think he’ll be making those decisions?

I’ll be on PhDSteve’s podcast, this week, where we’ll get into this and a whole lot of other topics, so be sure not to miss it!

Andrew Thompson, Raptors Republic
John Lucas the third will go down in memory for me. Not because of the way he played, which was to shoot a lot in a little bit of time and then sit down again, but because he played. My memory is full of the names of ex-Raptor role players whose names pop in to my mind on random occasion for absolutely no reason whatsoever. Acie Earl, Mike James, Tracey Murray, Chris Childs, Rafer Alston, Keon Clark, Joey Graham, Carlos Rogers, Eric Montross and Walt “The Wizard” Williams. John Lucas III joins this illustrious list as his name too will now pass through my brain on an idle Tuesday drive home, as random synapses fire and remind me just how much time I’ve spent watching and thinking about the Raptors instead of doing other things.

Blake Murphy, Raptors Republic
I realize this whole thing is a terribly weak post, but everything I have to say about JL3 can be summed up with this graphic:

He shoots too much and he’s not particularly good at it. If he was just a three-baller, fine, but he doesn’t play that way. The other holes in his game (passing, ruining basketballs by over-dribbling them, defense) make it so that it’s tough to accept him as a backup point guard. It’s likely the team will look to upgrade that spot this summer, as they should.

Eric Koreen, The National Post
Dresses well.

Garrett Hinchey, Raptors Republic
I’ve always had a soft spot for this little guy – yes, he’s a 3rd point guard who was given the backup role. Yes, he’s EXTREMELY undersized for the position. And, yes, his NBA-calibre skills basically consist of 3-point shooting and a reasonable handle. But, when he heats up, there’s nothing like watching a 5 foot 10 point guard take over your team’s offense, even for a couple minutes. And there’s certainly nobody questioning the man’s compete level. So yes, John Lucas the Third, you are an extremely flawed basketball player. But you’re our extremely flawed basketball player. And I’ll take 10 hard-fought minutes of subpar floor generalship followed by a mini heat check over watching Alan Anderson go 2 for 18 any day.

PhD Steve, Raptors Republic
John Lucas 3, a haiku
I don’t know this guy
Since he never gets to play
Jerome Moiso?

Adam Francis, Raptors HQ
My expectation for Jonas Valanciunas this past season was as follows; about six points and six rebounds a night, some solid defence, and some signs of improvement on O by season’s end. Interestingly, the inverse happened with Jonas’ offensive game being a step ahead of what most expected, with his defence and rebounding taking the bulk of the season to begin to shine through. But he averaged about 9 points, 6 boards and a block a game as a rookie, and seemed to get better with each game, a great sign for a player expected to be a major building block for the franchise going forward.

Blake Murphy, Raptors Republic
I need more than 100 words to get into Valanciunas appropriately, so look for a longer form piece sometime soon. In the meantime, here are some cool/rare/unique things The Lethaluanian did this year:

*Second-team All-Rookie
*15.6 PER, 61.8 TS%, 14.9 Rb%, 5.0 Ast%, 4.2 Blk%
*Among all rookies with 1200 minutes (Jonas played 1482), there have been just 80 players to post a PER of 15, Rb% of 14, Ast% of 4 and Blk% of 4.
*Among those 80, Jonas ranks 5th in TS% and is younger than all but four (Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, Uncle Cliffy and Andre Drummond).
*He also has one of the highest turnover rates on this list (11th at 17.3%), the key area in which he needs to improve.

Perhaps most importantly, his best months came in March and April – he showed growth and development, and really put some lipstick on this pig of a season. I’m looking forward to watching him grow up in a Raptors uniform. More to come.

Eric Koreen, The National Post
Does anybody else see a world where Bryan Colangelo and the Raptors part ways, Valanciunas absolutely blows up next season (well, becomes a very solid starter), and every basketball writer and blogger worth his or her salt types a piece that re-assesses the Colangelo era? It happened with J.P. Ricciardi, and it just happened with Brian Burke. If Colangelo leaves, Valanciunas is the best candidate to make revisionist historians forget about the general manager’s flaws. At least in part, he will succeed. Next year, Valanciunas scratches “cult” from “cult favourite.”

Garrett Hinchey, Raptors Republic
For all of Brian Colangelo’s missteps as Raptors GM, and there have been many, let the record show that when it came to the 2011 draft, he got it so, so right. It seems crazier by the day to think that there were fans pining for Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker in his place, yet BC – incredibly, ironically, and one-time-only, as it turns out – stood pat, choosing to sacrifice wins now for a smart, sustainable pick: drafting a potential future All-Star, and a cornerstone of the franchise.
Shockingly, it worked out for him. Funny how that happens, hey Brian?

PhD Steve, Raptors Republic
Jonas is the great hope for Raptor fans right now, in that, if he turns out to be what he projects to be then all will be fine with the franchise. Unfortunately since so much hinges on him succeeding, there is little room for error. While I suspect he has what it takes to be successful the fans are now placing so much pressure on him becoming an all-star right away that if he doesnt -the fans will turn very quickly on him (remember raps fans are fickle) . That’s a lot to ask from a 2nd year center. Let’s hope he’s got big shoulders.

Patience Raps fans, patience.

RapsFan/Sam, Raptors Republic
You never trade big for short; that’s what they say (Milwaukee might have words about that), but I admit it stung when we learned that Harden was offered to Toronto for Jonas this summer, until I realized that:

a) Presti can pick talent; trading for Jonas is a serious validation of his worth
b) He finished the season on a very high note, dominating the paint on both ends of the floor, where other rookies in his class started to fade out *couch* Ross *cough*
c) Three letters: CBA … the kid has three more years on his rookie scale contract; a Godsend when you consider some of the albatross contracts on this roster

If he spends the summer working on his strength and conditioning, and developing a polished low-post game (either send him to Olajuwon or force him to watch tapes of Kevin McHale), than there’s no reason not to expect very big things from him starting next season…no pressure but this franchise is depending on you more than it should.

Tim W., Raptors Republic
What can I say about Jonas Valanciunas that I haven’t already said? He didn’t make the All Rookie first team, which doesn’t really matter, but I still disagree with. Personally, I would have put him ahead of Waiters, who’s a low efficiency chucker, and Barnes, who was solid, but unspectacular during the regular season. And I think every team in the league would trade both of them for Valanciunas.

In fact, on Bill Simmons’ annual NBA Trade Value list, the only rookies who were higher than Valanciunas were Anthony Davis (definitely agree), Bradley Beal (don’ t know if I agree, but I see the argument) and Damian Lillard (who reminds me too much of Damon Stoudamire- great numbers when he can dominate on a bad team). I think next year only Davis will be higher.
Although I’m getting this number out of thin air, I’d say there is a 75% chance Valanciunas will be an All Star within 5 years.

These moments are rare and sometimes seem insignificant, but we can’t possibly claim we understand quantum hoops, yet – they may seem insignificant, but maybe they are the most significant.

This NBA season had one such moment. This NBA season, we all enrolled in Remedial Chaos Theory. Since many are unversed in travelling between alternate basketball realities, allow me to be your guide.

November 21, 2012
The Charlotte Bobcats lead the Toronto Raptors 98-97 in what is almost unanimously considered a meaningless, throw-away game.

As Andrea Bargnani receives the ball on the right side of the floor, he rises for a jump shot that could win the game.

At this exact point in time, the basketball universe is at a fork in its multiverse.

Bargnani lets it fly…

The possible results from this sequence will split the NBA into three different timelines, all existing parallel to each other from here on out.

Scenario 1: The Darkest Timeline
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist fouls Bargnani but the ref does not make the call. Bargnani air balls the shot and basically falls apart from there. The Raptors struggle, trade for Rudy Gay, and are where they are now. Yes, sadly, the Raptors entered The Darkest Timeline in this instance. All around the NBA, stars are injured, the playoffs are excellent but have an injury cloud hanging over them, and Bryan Colangelo appears to survive another year until Tim Leiweke can find a suitable replacement for 2014.

But, it didn’t have to be this way. Luckier fans in a parallel universe (likely with goatees) got a different result and have went down different paths.

Scenario 2: Il Mago-verse
Michael-Kidd Gilchrist fouls Bargnani and the ref makes the call. Bargnani hits both free throws, giving the Raptors the victory. This invigorates the mercurial franchise players, finally giving him a confident swagger to be “the closer.” While his numbers don’t soar to career highs, he is far more efficient and plays a full slate from then on, adding a few wins to the Raptors total.

Perhaps more importantly, the Raptors don’t pull the trigger on a Rudy Gay deal. Instead, with Bargnani’s value high and the Lakers sputtering, the Raptors send Bargnani and Jose Calderon to the Lakers for Pau Gasol.

Changes
Raptors: They still hire Tim Leiweke in the offseason but the fan-base is less upset with allowing Colangelo to stick around a year. After all, Gasol was a great partner in crime with Jonas Valanciunas, allowing Amir Johnson to continue to thrive in a bench role and narrowly miss the Sixth Man of the Year award. The Raptors still have a hole at the three, as Terrence Ross didn’t come along quite as hoped with extra playing time later in the season. With little cap space and no draft pick, the Raptors have a healthy core in the paint but need DeMar DeRozan to continue to evolve and hope Landry Fields has a better season in order to complements the bigs and Kyle Lowry, who was up-and-down all year but found a nice chemistry with Gasol late in the season. The Raptors finished ninth in the East, just two games back of the playoffs.

Grizzlies: With the Raptors unwilling to take on Gay’s contract, the Grizzlies dealt a few lesser pieces to try and trim their luxury tax bill rather than get under the line. Jerryd Bayless and Tony Wroten were jettisoned for picks, leaving the backcourt a bit thin. Still, the Grizzlies handled the Clippers in the first round, but ran into a solid Thunder team in the second round.

Rockets: Picked up Bayless for a second round pick, which meant Patrick Beverley wasn’t on the floor in the first round playoff series.

Thunder: With Bayless a less active defender than Beverley, Russell Westbrook goes un-injured in the first round of the playoffs, leaving the Thunder a strong Finals favorite.

Lakers: The addition of Bargnani and Calderon helped stem the tide while other injuries hurt the team. That added manpower was enough that the Lakers clinched a playoff spot with three games to go, finishing with 47 wins (Golden State, coincidentally, won 48 in this scenario due to the butterfly effect, so the seeding didn’t change). Without a playoff spot to fight for, Kobe Bryant was rested down the stretch, leaving him healthy for the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Lakers still came up short against the Spurs.

Pistons: Don’t get Calderon, nobody notices.

Scenario 3: The Wiggins Huskies
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist fouls Bargnani, the refs call it, and Bargnani splits a pair of free throws to send the game into overtime. In overtime, Bargnani gets in a shouting match with Lowry, who had chastised Bargnani for poor help defense as Kemba Walker drove the lane for a late bucket.

After the game, the team announces Bargnani hurt his elbow and will miss a substantial amount of time. When beat writer Eric Koreen asks too many pointed questions of Bryan Colangelo following the alleged “phantom” injury announcement, Colangelo loses it and tries to choke Koreen out.

MLSE, now owned by media powerhouses Bell and Rogers, act swiftly to deny the option year on Colangelo’s deal due to this public relations fiasco, later bringing in Leiweke to clean it up.

Changes
Raptors: With Colangelo handcuffed by his lame duck status, the board freezes on adding any salary to the roster. Instead, the board elects to keep Calderon as an expiring contract and further mentor Lowry for the season. Bargnani does not play a game the rest of the way, and the team’s first announcement of the offseason is that they will use the Amnesty Provision on Bargnani with the aim of “starting fresh” with a new management group, ownership and team identity. This is followed shortly by the announcement that the team will revert to the Toronto Huskies name starting in the 2014-15 season, a move to once again aimed at reseting the brand image while also making the colors of the Toronto-based teams streamlines (#BlackAndYellow -> #BlueAndWhite).

With Calderon off the books and a Bargnani amnesty, the Raptors have ample cap space. Leiweke indicates the team is hoping to build flexibility in its roster construction and won’t spend just to spend, instead accepting another down year or two to add a “major piece through the draft” to accompany the Valanciunas-Lowry-Johnson-Davis-DeRozan core that, Leiweke indicates, the organization feels can make up five of a contender’s top seven or eight players. The Raptors may be bad, he suggests, but there is a giant, Maple-flavored, Jordan-esque prize if the ping pong balls bounce right. (Meanwhile, Raptors Republic kidnap Adam Silver in hopes of getting an “envelope freeze” in the 2014 draft lottery).

Grizzlies: With the Raptors unwilling to take on Gay’s contract, the Grizzlies dealt a few lesser pieces to try and trim their luxury tax bill rather than get under the line. Jerryd Bayless and Tony Wroten were jettisoned for picks, leaving the backcourt a bit thin. Still, the Grizzlies handled the Clippers in the first round, but ran into a solid Thunder team in the second round.

Rockets: Picked up Bayless for a second round pick, which meant Patrick Beverly wasn’t on the floor in the first round playoff series.

Thunder: With Bayless a less active defender than Beverly, Russell Westbrook goes un-injured in the first round of the playoffs, leaving the Thunder a strong Finals favorite.

Lakers: Are unable to make a move, and their fate plays out more or less the same.

Pistons: Don’t get Calderon, nobody notices.

But here we are
The basketball multiverse didn’t give us any more desirable a timeline. In fact, you could argue that none of these timelines were great for Raptor fans, although there are certainly varying levels of hope attached to each. Maybe there was no way for the Raptors’ season to “break right” and give us a clearly more desirable outcome. We might not know for years which of these universes is the “best one” and which is truly the “Darkest Timeline.”

This is also, of course, just an exercise in Remedial Chaos Theory, and is completely a work of fiction. But it’s fun to play what-if, and it’s fun to create a scenario where Kobe and Westbrook are healthy in the playoffs (sorry, Derrick Rose, couldn’t help you). After all, one of the benefits of cheering for a perpetually inept franchise is the “right” to second guess.

What are your “what ifs” for the season, moments that you feel might have created parallel basketball universes? Be elaborate…we need content.

Source

• Memphis the flat track bullies of the West? Or can they rise up against superior competition if they are in fact destined to meet Miami?
• Is Scotty Brooks the right coach for OKC?
• Are Golden State Warriors now the favorites to win the SA series? Really?
• What if the Raptors had actually drafted Harrison Barnes?
• The Raps, the Knicks, isolation offense, and Zach Lowe’s piece from Grantland
• The all-defensive teams for 2012-2013 and why no Raptors appear on that list.

Don’t forget to visit Blair’s site The Fifth Quarter Blog and follow him on Twitter.

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