Rational Pastime Blog

An Unnecessarily Analytical Look at ESPN's Super Bowl XLVI Picks

2012-02-04T16:28:00.000-05:00

Sixty-three ESPN experts (a term that should be taken lightly in some cases) shared their picks for Super Bowl XLVI, which kicks off tomorrow in Indianapolis. So what's a nerd to do with all this data when he needs a break from his dissertation? Why, over-analyze it of course!

The findings support my suspicion about the media at large: the consensus pick is Giants over Patriots in a close one. Contrary to Vegas (which still has the Patriots -3 at the moment), the average pick is Giants 25.4 vs. Patriots 24.5--not too far off from the Madden NFL '12 simulation. I hope both teams have been practicing their one-tenth-of-a-point conversions.

Vegas Line:	NE 28.5, NYG 25.5
Madden '12 Simulation:	NYG 27, NE 24

Average ESPN Pick:	NYG 25.4, NE 24.5
Average ESPN Giants Pick:	NYG 27.5, NE 22.4
Average ESPN Patriots Pick:	NE 27.1, NYG 22.9

The chart above ignores Gregg Easterbrook's oddball pick (Giants over Patriots 2-0 following a safety in overtime) but I included it in the calculations. Giants pickers are also more confident than Pats backers, predicting a 5.1 point margin of victory versus 4.2, respectively.

Most expect this game to be a close one. Only seven of the sixty-three pickers expect a double-digit margin of victory, four of whom picked the Pats. The mean margin of victory is 4.7, the median spread 4 and the mode spread 3. The O/U for the ESPN population is 49.9.

What's that? You say I have yet to over-analyze to your liking? Yeah, that's what I thought you said.

Well, then... Even though 55.6% of the ESPN crowd picks the Giants to win, the Pythagorean expectation is less optimistic about a Giants victory.

Team	Points	PCT	PYT	uPYT
Giants:	25.4	55.6%	52.5%	53.0%
Patriots:	24.5	44.4%	47.5%	47.0%

Winner:	27.3
Loser:	22.6
Over / Under:	49.9
Spread:	-4.7

Using a Pythagorean exponent of 2.67 (best fit for the NFL over the past decade) the consensus scores for the Giants and Patriots imply a 52.5% chance of victory for Big Blue, or 53% if you use Jim Glass' unit Pythagorean method (which is really only appropriate for a cluster of unique games or simulations, but what the heck).

My pick? Well, as a Giants fan betrothed to a Patriots fan, my pick is for peace in the household. I'd advise you to take the under.

All "data" courtesy ESPN

Our Hall of Fame Ballot

2012-01-09T08:00:00.000-05:00

Update: Barry Larkin elected to Cooperstown by the Writers. Morris receives sixty-one more votes than Bagwell.

As part of our obligations for membership in the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, we must submit a vote on each year's Hall of Fame Ballot.

Of course, even if we weren't obligated, we would anyway, because this is fun. Sturgeon General and yours truly each picked six players eligible for induction in 2012. Five of our selections overlapped, leaving a total of seven (out of a possible ten) votes. These were the votes we submitted to the BBA.

In the final BBA voting, only two players--Jeff Bagwell and Barry Larkin--surpassed the 75% threshold, making them the official BBA nominees of 2012. Below, we present our votes, alongside the BBA tallies, with explanations after the jump.

Player	S. General	J-Doug	RP Blog	BBA

Barry Larkin	Yea	Yea	Yea	84.25%
Jeff Bagwell	Yea	Yea	Yea	78.77%

Edgar Martinez	Yea	Yea	Yea	60.27%
Tim Raines	Yea	Yea	Yea	57.53%
Alan Trammel	Yea	Yea	Yea	44.52%
Mark McGwire	Nay	Nay	Nay	41.10%
Larry Walker	Yea	Nay	Yea	35.62%
Lee Smith	Nay	Nay	Nay	33.56%
Jack Morris	Nay	Nay	Nay	32.19%
Don Mattingly	Nay	Nay	Nay	29.45%
Rafael Palmeiro	Nay	Yea	Yea	28.77%
Fred McGriff	Nay	Nay	Nay	28.08%
Bernie Williams	Nay	Nay	Nay	11.64%
Juan Gonzalez	Nay	Nay	Nay	6.16%
Terry Mulholland	Nay	Nay	Nay	0%

Also on the ballot: Dale Murphy, Javy Lopez, Brad Radke, Tim Salmon, Bill Mueller, Phil Nevin, Tony Womack, Jeromy Burnitz, Brian Jordan, Eric Young, Ruben Sierra and Vinny Castilla.

Barry Larkin
J-Doug: Yea; Sturgeon General: Yea; BBA: 84.25%

Pros: Twelve-time All Star. Posted an exceptional 51.7 wins above replacement (rWAR) during his best ten-year stretch (1990-99).

Cons: If you can think of any, feel free to share in the comments.

J-Doug says: His best ten-year stretch leaves no doubt that he deserves this.

Sturgeon General says: Larkin was almost uniformly recognized as the NL's best shortstop throughout the late 1980s and 1990s. As a counterpart of Cal Ripken, he actually compares favorably to the Iron Man when it comes to rate stats.

Jeff Bagwell
J-Doug: Yea; Sturgeon General: Yea; BBA: 78.77%

Pros: Four-time All Star. Slugged 449 dingers over fifteen seasons. Dominated the strike-shortened 1994 season with an OPS+ of 213, amassing 300 total bases and winning the MVP. Posted a sizeable 79.9 rWAR over his career, including 65.7 rWAR during his best ten-year stretch (1992-2001).

Cons: Had misfortune to slug in an era when hard-hitting 1Bs came under suspicion for PED use.

J-Doug says: The numbers speak for themselves on this one. He's an all-timer, patently deserving on enshrinement in Cooperstown.

Sturgeon General Says: Has unfairly been lumped in with steroid users. There is no evidence or accusations as of today that he ever used PEDs. He had a normal career arc and was a for a first baseman was surprisingly fleet of foot.

Edgar Martinez
J-Doug: Yea; Sturgeon General: Yea; BBA: 60.27%

Pros: Probably the best DH ever. Posted a staggering 50.5 rWAR during his best 10-year stretch (1991-2000). Career OBA of 0.418 is #22 all-time.

Cons: Played DH almost exclusively.

J-Doug says: I'm the kind of guy who thinks a player is Hall worthy if he was the best at his position, regardless of how valuable that position is. Edgar Martinez is that player, but he also deserves it on his own merits.

Sturgeon General says: Edgar's HOF perspectives are coming from the worst of both worlds. Voters ignore designated hitters and his former position of third base is surprisingly one of the most difficult positions to enshrine in the Hall. I do not like the DH, but Edgar's bat performed at Hall of Fame levels and that should be recognized.

Tim Raines
J-Doug: Yea; Sturgeon General: Yea; BBA: 57.53%

Pros: Compiled 2605 hits and 1330 walks over 23 seasons. Seven consecutive All-Star selections from 1981-87. During best 10-year stretch (1983-92) posted 49.3 rWAR. Led the league in steals from 1981-84, swiping 808 over a career (#5 all time).

Cons: If cocaine is a PED--and it is--then you have to assume Rock Raines' speed was chemically enhanced.

J-Doug says: Great peak. Great career stats. Electrifying speed. I'm pretty sure when voters inducted Andre Dawson they were confusing him with the other Expo.

Sturgeon General: One of the most under-appreciated players of the last few decades. It is a shame that if he had 400 fewer walks and 400 more empty singles he would be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

Alan Trammell
J-Doug: Yea; Sturgeon General: Yea; BBA: 44.52%

Pros: Six-time All Star. During his best 10-year stretch posted a superb rWAR of 51.9. Retired as one of the top offensive shortstops of all time.

Cons: Hardly anyone remembers who he is (or was).

J-Doug says: While Trammel's career numbers fall a bit short for me, his 51.9 rWAR during his best ten-year stretch (1981-1990) puts him over the top. That doesn't even count his 5 rWAR from 1980.

Sturgeon General says: Has fallen victim to the inflated numbers of the "Steroids Era." Unfortunately the completion of his career coincided with the rise of Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada.

Mark McGwire
J-Doug: Nay; Sturgeon General: Nay; BBA: 41.1%

Pros: Foreshadowed the dawn of the home run era by socking 49 dingers in his ROY season. Twelve All Star selections in 16 seasons. Led the league in homers four times, including his then-record 70 HR campaign in 1998. Led his league in slugging 4 times. Posted 47 rWAR duing his best 10 year stretch (1990-1999). Hit 583 home runs (#10 on the all-time list).

Cons: Career fell off a cliff rather quickly, posting 0.4 rWAR in 2001 (his final season, only three years after his triumphant 1998). Nagging issues regarding PEDs.

J-Doug says: I'm a small hall guy, and his 63.1 rWAR just doesn't cut it for me. His career just didn't last long enough, and his peak was far too short. I'll never forget #62 sneaking inside the left field foul poll that night, but that memory isn't enough to elevate Big Mac to HOF status.

Sturgeon General says: Even when ignoring the steroids issue, Big Mac's candidacy has issues. He only has 7,660 career plate appearances. No player born since 1924 has made the Hall with that few plate appearances. The next closest person is Kirby Puckett, who had several hundred more PAs and only stopped at that due to career ending glaucoma.

Larry Walker
J-Doug: Nay; Sturgeon General: Yea; BBA: 35.62%

Pros: Five-time All Star. Seven Gold Gloves. MVP year was one of the best in the last couple decades. Strong career rWAR at 67.3. 46.9 rWAR duing his best 10-year stretch (1993-2002).

Cons: Colorado's atmosphere almost certainly make his numbers look better than his true talent. Born in Canada (just kidding).

J-Doug says: Larry Walker just doesn't make the cut for me, value-wise. (And for those of you who think I'm being a hypocrite due to my support for Palmeiro--see below--yes, I do actually believe that park-assisted stats are less valuable than PED-assisted stats.)

Sturgeon General says: Was a last minute addition to my ballot. Only after reviewing his numbers and seeing his career rWAR falls right in line with all the players I selected did I add him. However, he was one of the most dynamic players of the '90s.

Lee Smith
J-Doug: Nay; Sturgeon General: Nay; BBA: 33.56%

Pros: Posted 478 saves (#3 all time). Seven time All Star. Finished 2nd in Cy Young voting in 1991.

Cons: Despite playing 18 seasons, led the league in saves only four times. Saves aren't a very good statistic. Lifetime win probability added (WPA) of 23.97 and clutch-adjusted win probability added (WPA/LI) of 13.93 are not all that impressive for a reliever with so much service under his belt.

Sturgeon General says: Retired the all time saves leader but was never really an elite closer. Was a pretty good closer who lasted a long time and just compiled. Was the '80s and '90s equivalent of Francisco Cordero.

J-Doug says: Sturgeon General says it best. While I think voters should actually consider longevity on HOF ballots, Smith never produced enough wins to merit consideration here. He may or may not have been better than Sutter, but he doesn't belong in the Hall either.

Jack Morris
J-Doug: Nay; Sturgeon General: Nay; BBA: 32.19%

Pros: Pitched one of the most memorable postseason games in history.

Cons: Was very good, not great, and certainly not elite, the rest of the time.

J-Doug says: Simply was never one of the best.

Sturgeon General says: Every year he gets a lot of hype, but when you look at the numbers they are surprisingly lacking. Only reason he gets any consideration is because of his epic Game 7 performance in the 1991 World Series. However, despite that legendary outing, he was not a particularly dominating postseason pitcher.

Don Mattingly
J-Doug: Nay; Sturgeon General: Nay; BBA: 29.45%

Pros: Six-time All Star. Nine gold gloves. Twice led the league in hits, thrice led in doubles.

Cons: Career was cut short by back injuries. Posted only 39.8 rWAR.

J-Doug says: All apologies to my late stepfather who loved Donnie Baseball, but Mattingly just didn't cut it. Injuries hurt him too early in his career. He was one of my childhood favorites, but he's just not among the best.

Sturgeon General says: The argument in his favor is that his career numbers are similar to Kirby Puckett. However that ignores the fact that Puckett played one of the most difficult defensive positions whereas Mattingly played one of the easiest.

Rafael Palmeiro
J-Doug: Yea; Sturgeon General: Nay; BBA: 28.77%

Pros: Was consistently among the best in the game during the 1990s, posting 48.1 rWAR (his best 10-year stretch). Four all-star selections vastly underestimate his contributions.

Cons: First big name player to be suspended for testing positive. Probably lied to Congress.

J-Doug says: I have a hard time separating Palmeiro from Walker and McGwire, neither of whom I voted for. His best ten years were marginally better than McGwire's, but Camden Yards may have helped his stats nearly as much as Coors helped Walker's. I'm going with my gut on this one.

Sturgeon General: Cannot support a guy who in my opinion blatantly and intentionally lied to Congress about steroid use.

Fred McGriff
J-Doug: Nay; Sturgeon General: Nay; BBA: 28.08%

Pros: Retired a 5-time All Star with 493 dingers. Probably one of the better fielding 1Bs early in his career.

Cons: Paltry value stats, including a 38.5 rWAR during his best 10 year run from 1988-1997. Career 50.5 rWAR just doesn't cut it for Cooperstown.

J-Doug says: There was a time when I thought that the steroid revelations would make McGriff look better relative to his peers. They have not. If there's any such thing as an "empty" slugger, McGriff was it.

Sturgeon General: Have to be honest, I rooted against McGriff hitting 500 career homers. Nothing against the Crime Dog, but I felt at the time that he would be the first 500 home run hitter to fail to make the Hall. Was a very good player for a number of years, but never was elite nor did he have the longevity to make it to Cooperstown.

Bernie Williams
J-Doug: Nay; Sturgeon General: Nay; BBA 11.64%

Pros: Posted 45.2 rWAR during his best 10-year stretch from 1993-2002. Won a batting title in 1998.

Cons: Posted 2.1 rWAR in his other six seasons. Played 2005 below replacement. Posted a staggeringly low -12 fielding wins over his career.

J-Doug says: After his 30 homer year in 2000, I really thought Bernie was going to Cooperstown. I thought for sure he'd get to 3,000 hits. When he started winning gold gloves (which I now recognize were undeserved) I was even more confident. But then he started sliding fast. Then his career fell apart. With apologies to my ex-girlfriend Barbara, my best friend Dan and myself ten years ago, Bernabie Figueroa Williams does not belong in the Hall.

Sturgeon General says: Another very good player but never a particularly stellar defender (despite the Gold Gloves). Accumulated his entire rWAR value from 1995 to 2002. The remaining seven seasons in his career were around replacement level.

Juan Gonzalez
J-Doug: Nay; Sturgeon General: Nay; BBA: 6.16%

Pros: Two-time MVP.

Cons: Value stats are underwhelming (31.8 rWAR during his best ten season run; 33.5 over his career). Once busted at an airport with large quantities of HGH.

J-Doug says: Was there anyone who thought Juan-Gon wasn't a surefire HOF inductee after he won his second MVP in 1998 (with 50 2B and a 149 OPS+)? In hindsight, this player added few wins for someone with such a meteoric career.

Sturgeon General says: One of the worst stars ever. Image was boosted by gaudy RBI numbers that mysteriously vanished once he left Texas. Did not deserve his MVPs.

Terry Mulholland
J-Doug: Nay; Sturgeon General: Nay; BBA: 0%

Sturgeon General says: As a Phillies fan I've always had a soft spot for Mulholland. Terry was often miscast as the ace of their staff during the early '90s and also threw a no-hitter with the club. Despite an elite pickoff move and good control, Mulholland is not even remotely close to making the Hall.

All Photo Credits: Wikipedia

Factual Statements about Tim Tebow

2011-12-12T16:57:00.000-05:00

Broncos QB Tim Tebow
Photo credit: Wikipedia

If you're reading this, it probably means you haven't excised our blog from your RSS feed, yet. For that, I thank you. We're coming out of hibernation simply to share some statistics about the 2011 season of Denver Broncos Quarterback Tim Tebow, who...

Completes 48.5% of his passes (last among qualifying [with at least fourteen attempts/game] quarterbacks)
Averages 6.52 yards per pass attempt (27th among 32 qualifiers).
Has thrown two interceptions (best among qualifiers)
Averages 117 passing yards per game (worst among qualifiers).
His team, the Denver Broncos, has won six straight games (third best in the NFL).
They are 8-3 with Tebow under center.
Their strength of schedule is 0.515 (fifth-toughest in the AFC).
During their win streak, he has faced the Raiders (7-6), Chiefs (5-8), Jets (8-5), Chargers (6-7), Vikings (2-11) and Bears (7-6).
Those teams combine for a record of 35-43, or 35-37 if you discount their games against the Broncos.
Ranks 25th among 39 quarterbacks in win probability added
Has netted -14.5 expected points added (34/39)
Costs his team -0.04 points per play, according to expected points added (33/39)
Completes 32.8% of deep pass attempts (15 yards or more; 1/39)

That is all.

Data courtesy of ESPN and Advanced NFL Stats

World Series Projections @ BtB

2011-10-18T12:42:00.003-04:00

Over at Beyond the Box Score I predicted the Rangers to win the World Series in five games:

Point of fact: I did not expect the Cardinals to be here, not in August, not in September, not last week. My simulator didn't think any more highly of them. Yet, here we are. Our projections have the Rangers as 2:5 favorites, with the most likely outcome being a Texas win in five games.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Postseason Projections and Research @ BtB

2011-10-05T14:08:00.001-04:00

Over at Beyond the Box Score, I've been posting daily projections of the postseason campaigns. You can check out the latest here:

Projections Update: Bid Farewell to Tampa Bay

A.J. Burnett's competent performance put the Yankees back into the discussion as they head back to New York for Game 5, while the Cardinals and Diamondbacks still find themselves on the brink.

Also up is an article measuring the improbability of the September collapses and comebacks that we witnessed this season.

It Happens Once Every 250,000 Septembers

Less than a week ago, the odds of either outcome occurring were closer to 1 in 1000 than 1 in 100. On September 4th, the odds for either joint-outcome occurring were a dismal 1 in 100,000. Two days later, the odds of both Tampa Bay and St. Louis playing October were a mind-boggling 1 in 250,000.*

I'll be continuing this coverage over at BtB until the World Series concludes.

If the Season Ended Yesterday: Phillies Extend Lead @ BtB

2011-09-13T15:02:00.000-04:00

While the Phillies remain the best bet for the World Series, the streaking Tigers and Rays--as well as the slumping Red Sox and Rangers--are complicating the picture. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

If the Season Ended Yesterday: A Phanatic Phinish @ BtB

2011-09-09T12:56:00.000-04:00

For the third week in a row we have a new frontrunner in our postseason simulation series. If the season ended yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies would repeat their 2008 glory and avenge their 2009 loss to the New York Yankees. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

If the Season Ended Yesterday: BoSox, Phils Neck-and-Neck @ BtB

2011-08-30T15:52:00.000-04:00

As of yesterday, the AL East winner was ~12% more likely to win the ALDS, ~7% more likely to win the ALCS, and ~5% more likely to win the World Series than the AL Wild Card. Think about that as the Yankees head into Beantown this week.

The Boston Red Sox have dethroned the Yankees in the AL East (at least for now), driving most of the changes in the playoff probability numbers. Boston's best are now in a dead heat with the Phillies as the favorites for the World Series, both coming in at 3:1. The Yankees dropped into the 3-spot as a result of their recent skid.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

If the Season Ended Yesterday: Yankees Over Phillies @ BtB

2011-08-23T15:20:00.000-04:00

Think the added value to taking the division instead of the wild card is negligible? Even though the two AL East behemoths are rather evenly talented, the Yanks are ~15% more likely to reach the ALCS than the Sox and ~10% more likely to win it. This is because of the top seed's home field advantage and more favorable draw.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Examining the Deliberate Pace of the Yanks and Red Sox @ BtB

2011-08-19T13:35:00.000-04:00

We know that the Yankees and Red Sox take forever to finish. Why they take so long is still a bit of a mystery.

Both teams score a lot, frequently reach the playoffs and play important games (which I found to take longer than trivial games), and--perhaps most importantly--play each other quite a bit. But if the Yanks and Sox simply played a slower game because they produce more, then my models should predict game duration and pace as well for those two teams as it does for all the others. As it turns out, this is not the case.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Get Well Soon, Dave

2011-08-12T15:47:00.000-04:00

Update 08/12/11: Mr. Cameron shares some good news...

The results of that test are in – I officially have no more leukemia in my body. The doctors won’t say I’m in remission until they discharge me from the hospital in a week or two, but given that I’m currently cancer-free, I’m happy to use that term, even if it is technically a little premature.

***

Dave Cameron--without whom the sabersphere wouldn't be what it is today--just announced that he is ill with Acute Myeloid Leukemia and will begin chemotherapy immediately.

History has given my doctors all kinds of data about cure rates and life expectancy, and statistical analysis is helping them decide just what kind of chemotherapy I’ll be taking in a few hours, which I’m really thankful for. But really, those numbers do nothing for me. I’m not going to be making very many decisions over the next few months. I’m just going to be rooting like crazy for the drugs to work. I need reasons for hope, and I won’t find much of that in the harshness of raw data.
--When Statistics Are Not Helpful, by Dave Cameron

Mr. Cameron's right, of course. He doesn't care about the numbers right now, and neither should we. This isn't the time for analysis; it's the time for all of us to get on the same side and root for the Big Win.

For now, I’ll just ask that you strongly consider donating both blood and platelets to the Red Cross – they have a critically low supply of both at the moment...

I'll be making an appointment as soon as this post goes up. If you qualify, and haven't donated in the last 56 days, I urge you to do so as well. (As a long-time supporter of and donor to the Red Cross, I urge you to do so anyhow).

See you all when I can. Don’t get too used to not having me around.

We won't, Dave. See you soon.

Are Crucial Games Slower Than Trivial Ones? @ BtB

2011-07-20T12:49:00.000-04:00

Do teams slow down when there is more at stake? A couple of trends indicate that they do. While there is no basic indicator of game "importance" (that I am aware of), we can infer importance by looking at a few other variables, such as attendance, the absolute quality (win percentage) of the two teams in the match-up and the relative quality (divisional rank, games back) of the two teams in the match-up.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

National League All-Star Ballot 2011

2011-06-30T15:58:00.001-04:00

As promised, here are the All-Star selections for the National League to round out Rational Pastime's ballot for the Midsummer Classic (see AL picks here).

Catcher: Brian McCann (Atlanta)
Honorable mention: Miguel Montero (Arizona)
The last couple of seasons, McCann has battled eye issues. Two Lasik surgeries later, the lefty slugger has bounced back in a big way. He is arguably amidst the best season of his career. To this point, he has 14 HR, .914 OPS and 2.2 Rally wins above replacement (rWAR) -- all of which are tops among National League catchers.

First Base: Prince Fielder (Milwaukee)
Honorable mention: Joey Votto (Cincinnati)
With Albert Pujols first looking human and now injured, there is an opening for someone else to start the All Star Game at 1B. Nobody has taken better advantage than Prince Fielder. The soon-to-be-free agent has pounded pitching this year to the tune of 21 HR, 1.031 OPS and a 3.2 rWAR.

Second Base: Rickie Weeks (Milwaukee)
Honorable mention: Danny Espinosa (Washington)
The gold standard, Chase Utley, has spent too much time on the DL this year to be deserving of a spot. With Dan Uggla mired in the worst season of his career, there is an opportunity for fresh blood at 2B. Having been snubbed the last few years, Weeks' 14 HR, .844 OPS and 2.7 rWAR are good enough to earn him the starting nod this year.

Third Base: Chase Headley (San Diego)
Honorable mention: Aramis Ramirez (Chicago)
In a continuing theme, the usual suspects, Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright, have each spent too much time on the DL to earn a spot here. Despite the lack of HR, Chase Headley barely edges out the competition here with his .394 OBP and 1.7 rWAR.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes (New York)
Honorable mention: Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado)
After struggling through a couple of injury plagued seasons, the electric switch hitter has bounced back with a vengeance, posting career high numbers across the board. The impending free agent already has 15 triples to go along with his .918 OPS and 4.2 rWAR.

Outfield: Matt Kemp (Los Angeles)
Honorable mention: Justin Upton (Arizona)
At 26 years old, Matt Kemp is finally having the long-awaited monster season that Dodgers fans had been hoping for. He is the league leader in many offensive categories, including HR (22), SLG (.628) and OPS (1.043), topped off with a 5.2 rWAR.

Outfield: Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh)
Honorable mention: Shane Victorino (Philadelphia)
The budding star has come into his own this season with 11 HR, an .847 OPS and a 4.6 rWAR. His strong offensive and defensive performance has put the Bucs in contention for their first winning season since 1992.

Outfield: Ryan Braun (Milwaukee)
Honorable mention: Lance Berkman (St. Louis)
The converted infielder is having another typical Ryan Braun season. Thus far, he has hit 16 HR with a .953 OPS and 3.9 rWAR. The biggest difference in his game this year is on the base path, where he has stolen successfully 19 times in 23 attempts.

Image credit: Wikipedia

American League All-Star Ballot 2011

2011-06-30T13:49:00.002-04:00

As per our membership in the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, we at Rational Pastime are sharing our 2011 All Star Game selections. J-Doug takes the AL, while Sturgeon General takes on the Senior Circuit.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez (Boston)
Honorable mentions: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit) and Mark Teixeira (New York)
The Red Sox first baseman is challenging Jose Bautista for the AL MVP. He's #2 among AL first basemen in win probability added (WPA) and leverage-adjusted win probability added (WPA/LI). A-Gon leads AL 1Bs in Fangraphs' wins above replacement (fWAR).

Second Base: Ben Zobrist (Tampa Bay)
Honorable mentions: Howie Kendrick (Anaheim) and Dustin Pedroia (Boston)
Ben Zobrist leads AL second basemen in fWAR and ranks #2 in WPA and WPA/LI. He's also the reason why the Rays refuse to quit despite losing several great players to free agency.

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera (Cleveland)
Honorable mention: Jhonny Peralta (Detroit)
Cabrera ranks second in WPA and WPA/LI, and leads former Indians 2B Peralta by a hair in fWAR. I could have gone either way on this one.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez (New York)
Honorable mention: Kevin Youkilis (Boston)
Blame my pro-Yankee, anti-Sox bias if you wish, but A-Rod has quietly posted a 3.9 fWAR season. Rodriguez's value easily outpaces #2 Kevin Youkilis, who leads in WPA and WPA/LI.

Catcher: Alex Avila (Detroit)
This is such an easy pick that I won't even bother with an honorable mention. Avila is the only AL catcher with a positive WPA who qualifies for the batting title. He leads his position in the AL with 2.7 fWAR.

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz (Boston)
Another easy pick, Ortiz is easily leading AL designated hitters with 2.5 fWAR, well ahead of former teammate Victor Martinez. He also leads in WPA/LI.

Outfielders: Jose Bautista (Toronto), Curtis Granderson (New York) and Alex Gordon (Kansas City)
Honorable mentions: Jacoby Ellsbury (Boston), Brett Gardner (New York) and Matt Joyce (Tampa Bay)
Bautista is a no-brainer; his 5.3 fWAR leads the majors at all positions. Granderson is keeping pace homer-for-homer with Bautista, securing the #2 spots in fWAR and WPA/LI. While Ellsbury leads Gordon in fWAR, the race is close; Gordon's lead over Ellsbury in WPA/LI is not.

Image credit: Wikipedia

MLB Realignment in 1500 Words

2011-06-29T09:00:00.001-04:00

After playing god with the Big East's future, I decided to take a crack at it again. This time I have set my sights on a bigger target: Major League Baseball. It seems that with the recent talk of realignment among the owners and the MLBPA, everybody and their mother now has a realignment plan.

I am no different.

My plan differs from the prominent ones, and it is not my personal ideal plan. If it were, I would eliminate the DH, contract two teams, halt interleague play and return baseball to the pre-1994 playoff format. However, I am a realistic person and understand that none of those things will happen (and probably for good reason). No, what I am doing here is trying to work within the existing system to come up with a solution that is palatable to the fans, Union, and MLB brass alike.

See also J-Doug's plan for MLB Realignment

Rectifying League Imbalance

The National League still has sixteen teams to the American League's fourteen, while the NL Central has six teams and the AL West four. This is to prevent season-long interleague play. Since interleague was a new concept at the time of the last expansion, and no one knew how it would work out in the long run, it was a wholly unacceptable proposition to play it all season. But interleague has proven to be a boon for baseball and it is here to stay.

That leaves three options to even out the leagues. The first is expansion to sixteen teams in each league. However, there are some legitimate concerns as to whether the logistics of such an expansion are feasible. Is there enough fan support? Where do you add these teams without infringing on other fan bases? In this economic climate how do you convince a municipality to build/renovate a stadium for their new team? The other solution is contraction. Anyone with a brain knows that the Union will never allow that to happen, so why suggest it? Plus, there is plenty of talent to go around.

The third, and best, course of action is to move a National League team to the American League. Each league will then have three divisions of five teams each. This leaves two issues: season long interleague and whom to move where. Personally, I would like to move the Diamondbacks to the AL West and the Houston Astros to the NL West. I favor that scenario because it doesn't infringe on any existing American League team's territories.

However, the move most suggested is the Astros to the AL West, creating an immediate rivalry with their in-state nemesis, the Texas Rangers. This could be a great move if the Rangers are okay sharing Texas with another American League team. Such a rivalry could be the perfect incentive to entice a team to switch leagues.

Interleague Play Everyday

As for the specter of constant interleague, I say we should embrace it rather than fight it. Sure, it was a scary proposition... fifteen years ago! Interleague has been good to baseball. Fans seem to love it. Owners certainly enjoy the improved attendance. This is why the MLB should throw their full marketing weight behind season long interleague play.

The way to do that is to give one game in each interleague series a national television audience. Currently, ESPN has national games on Sunday, Monday and Wednesday nights, Fox on Saturday afternoons, TBS on Sunday afternoons, and MLB Network on Thursday nights (and sometimes others). Why not take the Tuesday and Friday night interleague games and give them a national audience? Baseball could offer exclusive rights to all interleague games to sweeten the pot for prospective networks.

In fact, one channel is likely salivating at the opportunity to get a baseball contract: Versus (soon to rebranded as the NBC Sports Channel). Much like ESPN, they are a subsidiary of a large network station. Much like ESPN in the 1980's, they are building their network through non-mainstream sports virtually no one else televises, such as MMA, Lacrosse, Tour de France, IndyCar and several others. Now, they are looking to compete head to head with ESPN on bigger sports and could use the notoriety.

In fact, they already tried to pick up baseball when they were still known as OLN, losing out to ESPN. A baseball deal would be a huge feather in their cap, expanding their audience and generating instant credibility. Currently, ESPN's deal is worth $2.3 billion over eight seasons. This includes the rights to three games a week, plus mandatory SportsCenter highlights, plus rebroadcast rights on ESPN Classic. A Versus deal wouldn't draw quite that much, but it should easily clear $1 billion.

Playoff Expansion

From what I understand, the root of the realignment discussion is Major League Baseball's intent to expand the Wild Card. Despite my initial reaction, I have warmed to the idea. I propose a one game playoff. Think about it, what are the two most exciting words in sports?

Game. Seven.

One game, winner take all; just try not to get excited about it. Now think about those rare instances when two teams play game 163 to determine who makes the postseason and who goes home. In essence they are skipping games 1-6 and going straight to the coveted seventh game. The stakes don't get much higher than that.

It will also prevent debacles like the Yankees and Rays not caring about winning the division last season. Under this new format, no one will voluntarily gamble their postseason birth on one game when they can play to win down the stretch and watch that game safely from the comfort of their own home. Every year fans will be treated to teams with an incentive to win the division as opposed to the Wild Card. Every year fans will witness high stakes, no holds barred games in each league to determine the Wild Card champion.

As for divisions themselves, the reality is that they are fan-friendly. Yes, they create an imbalanced schedule and may not be entirely fair, but baseball is better off with fans of an 82-win team enjoying a heated battle for the division--plus two other divisions and the Wild Card fighting for the pennant--rather than top-five approach of the NBA style postseason. Wheres the drama in that? No one is going to hang a banner saying they finished #4 in the National League. You do see banners for Wild Card winners. Fans eat that up. Its not a wise idea to eliminate that. Sorry, Mr. Neyer, the divisions aren't going anywhere.

Exercising Caution

MLB is walking a fine line here, though. I think this plan can be very successful for Major League Baseball. However, they need to seriously consider the ramifications of such a move. I implore them not to create a Wild Card round any longer than a single game as I believe it will ultimately do more harm than good. The season is six months long before the postseason starts, driving even ardent baseball fans to other sports.

I firmly believe in the concept of "always leaving them wanting more." Much better to leave the fans itching for more baseball, than to have them exhausted and tired of baseball at the season's end. So please, Mr. Commissioner, I ask you to keep this in mind and do the right thing.

So there you have it, a reasonable solution for MLB playoff expansion. Owners get more playoff teams, the fan-friendly divisional format is maintained, the postseason doesn't drag into November, the leagues achieve balance and MLB gets a fat new television contract out of it all.

All in a day's work. In my next post I will fix the economy, tackle global climate change and end American dependence on foreign oil.

Image credit: Wikipedia

Realignment Plans

2011-06-14T15:26:00.001-04:00

The expiration of the current MLB CBA, the likely addition of two more wildcard teams, and reports leaking from MLB/PA negotiations has fueled even more realignment talk than we're used to. I figure it makes sense to re-post the plan I presented last season, with minor edits.

***

Lately, there's been a lot of talk about realignment as a cure to baseball's competitive balance problem in lieu of a salary cap remedy. Of course, there is no competitive balance problem: despite massive disparities in payroll, the MLB has the most turnover per playoff spot of the four major American sport leagues. Nevertheless, Baseball does have a competitive balance perception issue, so the talk continues.

Will this stop me from fanning the flames by contributing yet another realignment plan? Absolutely not. Presenting ~~the Rational Pastime MLB Concept~~ J-Doug's realignment plan:

I'm no purist. If I were MLB Commish, I'd simply jettison the leagues. In a unified MLB, former NL teams would use the DH. My apologies to the fans of .076 hitters batting three times a game, but every other professional league on the planet uses the DH. It's high time the NL moved into the 21st Cent-- err, the late 1970's.
I'd jettison the divisions too. The MLB could be the most progressive American sports league, with 30 teams competing for 8 10 (or more) playoff spots irrespective of geography. In this reworked league, every team would play each other in one 3 game series, home team alternating every year. That takes care of 87 games there; what about the remaining 75 games? This is where it gets interesting...
Sometime before the trade deadline, teams would "bid" on game dates in the following year's schedule with priority to the small market teams. In this "scheduling draft," the Royals/Pirates/Brewers could decide whether to A) earn cash by hosting good teams, or B) boost their playoff chances by hosting bad ones. Thereafter, the large market teams could bid to keep their profitable rivalries intact, so we'd still have plenty of Sox/Yanks, Cubs/Cards, Dodgers/Giants match-ups.
If we wanted to be even more radical, we can cut the regular season schedule to 159 games, then let teams ranked 5-12 compete in four "play-in" series (teams 1-4 get a bye). The revenue that teams would gain from gate receipts with more teams in contention later in the season--and the chance for national TV money during the LPS--would more than compensate for those missing regular season games.

Of course, this will, never, ever happen. And, like I said, baseball is in no need of repair--attendance and revenue is historically high despite the worst recession in decades, and viewership is stable and showing signs of an uptick. Even so, I think ~~the Rational Pastime MLB Concept~~ my realignment plan would be fun, fair, and profitable.

The Absurdity of the Hold Statistic @ BtB

2011-06-06T17:17:00.000-04:00

Drew Storen's butcher job on Sunday amassed a dismal -0.449 Win Probability Added. He also earned the hold. It's the 10th worst hold by WPA terms since the stat was invented, and the 4th worst in a winning game.

The definition varies, but typically a reliever earns a hold whenever he enters in a save situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game still in a save situation... Closers, by definition, cannot finish a losing game and earn a save... However... if the setup man leaves the game after a hold opportunity, but the next pitcher allows an inherited runner to score the winning run, the first pitcher still earns the hold because he fulfilled the above criteria. Thus, a setup man can earn the HD and the L in the same outing.

Read more about this and other reasons why the hold stat is absurd at Beyond the Box Score...

Photo credit: MissChatter (Flickr)

MLB Games Under 3:00, Yanks & BoSox Take Sweet Time @ BtB

2011-05-26T14:18:00.000-04:00

Revisiting my earlier work on game durations using 2010 data, I find that MLB games are getting shorter while the Yanks and Red Sox are still the slowest teams.

Moreover, it remains true that--contrary to popular myth--the typical Major League Baseball game does not exceed three hours. In 2010, the mean nine-inning regular season game averaged 2:50. Please tell your friends. The good news (or bad news, for those of us who can't get enough baseball) is that these numbers are down from 2009, during which the average game ran 2:56.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Retired Uniforms by Division: National League West @ BtB

2011-05-20T14:15:00.000-04:00

The list of players who wore uniforms currently retired by the Giants and Dodgers reads like lyrics in a Terry Cashman tune: Reese, Snider, Koufax, Campanella, Robinson, Drysdale, Ott, Mays, Marichal, Cepeda, Perry, McCovey, et al... Noticeably absent from the list: #25, Barry Lamar Bonds.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Retired Uniforms by Division: National League Central @ BtB

2011-05-13T12:37:00.000-04:00

The National League Central is stacked when it comes to retired numbers, and it's not just because there are six teams. NL Central teams have retired a total of 44 player jerseys accounting for a staggering team-specific rWAR of 2,173.8. Even when pro-rating these figures to a five team division, the Middle American Senior Circuit outpaces all rivals.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Billy Heywood: The Big Screen's First SABR Manager?

2011-05-09T09:00:00.013-04:00

Earl Weaver is generally considered to be the original sabermetrically inclined manager. While he may not have had any fancy names for his brand of managing, when looking back today at his managerial style, he fits snugly within the realm of sabermetrics.

In fact, that is one of the fun things to do with sabremetrics in general... to go back and reassess what we thought we knew and see if those perceptions hold up. Sometimes players we thought were great turn out to be... well still great. Some players are shown to not quite live up to their formidable reputations while others prove to have been more valuable than they were perceived at the time.

But why stop there? If perception is reality, then why not explore further? Out of all the sports, baseball seems to translate the best onto the big screen. Inspired by Larry Granillo, who discovered which real life game Ferris Bueller attended, I decided to explore the realm of cinema as well.

The movie I have selected is the 1994 classic, Little Big League. The story revolves around an 11 year old boy who lives, eats and breathes baseball. When the young boy inherits the Minnesota Twins he, in a move befitting of Ted Turner, names himself manager. However, before he can take that role he has to convince the baseball people in his organization that this isn't just a publicity stunt and that he has legitimate knowledge of the game. (Watch clip from 6:10 to 8:35)

As you can see young Billy Heywood takes on baseball's conventional wisdom and successfully explains why bunting can be a bad idea. Is it possible this movie, that came out several years before Moneyball took hold in Oakland, was ahead of its time?

Well maybe. Billy Heyward does stray some from traditional sabermetric principles. While at no point does he appear to employ a straight steal, he does take advantage of hit and runs. It would take more research and information about the context of these plays to truly determine their saber-worthiness. Likewise, there is no evidence he actually uses statistics to back his decisions (although the announcer comically uses overly detailed trivial statistics throughout the movie).

However, he seems for the most part to use sound logic and looks at the matchups when making decisions. And that's really what sabermetrics is all about: using sound statistics and appropriate data to objectively evaluate the game of baseball. Looks to me he has all the makings of a sabermetric manager when he someday makes his return to big league managing. Plus, he gets into one helluva spat with an umpire that would make even Earl Weaver proud.

Image credit: Wikipedia

Retired Uniforms by Division: National League East @ BtB

2011-05-05T11:52:00.000-04:00

Among the NL East teams that have retired player jerseys, the average rWAR for players so honored is 82.3 for Atlanta, 60.8 for Philadelphia, 40.3 for Washington and 38.5 for New York.

If you're wondering why I went with the Expos logo instead of the Nationals logo to represent the franchise, the answers are A) because all four retired jerseys had Expos logos printed on them, and B) because this is a once-in-a-blue-moon opportunity to use an Expos logo and I shall not squander it.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Retired Uniforms by Division: American League West @ BtB

2011-04-28T16:10:00.000-04:00

Official Mariner policy is not to retire a numbers unless the player it belonged to has played five years for the team and has reached the Cooperstown plateau. Accordingly, the Mariners have not retired any uniforms (although they have yet to reissue Edgar Martinez's #11 or Ken Griffey, Jr's #24).

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Retired Uniforms by Division: American League Central @ BtB

2011-04-22T16:43:00.000-04:00

When it comes to retired uniforms in the AL Central, the White Sox and Tigers are in a dead heat for the top spot in total team performance. The Indians and Twins are likewise neck-and-neck for third, while the lowly Royals trail (sorry as always, Kansas City fans).

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Retired Uniforms by Division: American League East @ BtB

2011-04-15T17:20:00.000-04:00

We all know that the Yankees have retired more uniforms than any other team. Not surprisingly, the combined talent that wore all 15 retired numbers (excluding former manager Casey Stengel) beats all.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score…