From The Professor’s Desk … [Joe Bucs Fan]

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | 4 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags:

The Devil Rays Know How To Be Overdramatic [Rays Index]

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Archives

…the Rays decided to keep Uchibori, Iwamura’s interpreter the past two years, and gave him a job as a scout in his native Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

Just another move proving that the Rays are trendsetters and super-sleuths at uncovering market inefficiencies. Because obviously interpreters make excellent talent evaluators. There go the Rays, reinventing the game of baseball, one interpreter at a time.

If only the Yankees had thought of that.

[Ed. Note: the gentleman in the above photo with Aki is not his most recent interpreter. That is Aki's first interpreter with the Rays.]

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Noah Pransky of 10Connects explains that the Rays were one of the winners in the St. Pete Mayoral election held on Tuesday. [10Connects.com]
• Marc Topkin looks at what the Yankees title means for the Rays or as Stuart Sternberg said, “Order has been restored to the baseball universe.” [St. Pete Times]
• Desmond Jennings was named player of the year in the Southern League and Alexander Colome was named player of the year in the New York-Penn League. Colome was the only pitcher to receive the honor for his league. [MiLB]
• The Rays restructured their minor league staff. Marc Topkin has the details. [The Heater]
• The early odds on the Rays to win the World Series next season are 15-to-1. We are guessing that the odds on winning the East are not much better. [Dock of the Rays]

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | 2 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: The Hangover

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | 8 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags:

WOW! The Rays somehow were able to get something for nothing. I think I just messed my tighty-whities!

Yes, the Rays would have likely declined Iwamura’s option had they not made the trade. But that was the Rays’ choice. Iwamura was not a free agent. We repeat. Aki was NOT a free agent. In essence, he still had a year left on his contract*. The only difference between Aki’s contract and Pat Burrell’s contract is that the Rays are stuck with Burrell while they could have chosen to get the rid of Aki’s contract for a nominal fee.

If the Rays yesterday somehow traded Troy Percival (a free agent) for a relief pitcher, that would be getting something for nothing. In this case, the Rays did have the option to keep the previously-mentioned “nothing.” Of course, by “nothing” we actually mean a decent second baseman with a reasonable one-year contract.

So why does this type of move not happen more often? Simple. The only time you see a team decline a player option is if the player is not worth that price any longer. The Rays are the only team in baseball cheap enough to not want a player that is worth more than he makes. And yes, Aki is worth more than $4.85 million.

Yes, this was a good move. The Rays essentially got a free relief pitcher, seeing as how he will make less (~$450K) than what the Rays would have paid to buy out Aki’s contract ($550K). And we have long said that the number one item on our wishlist for this off-season is one or two relief pitchers that throw harder than Lil’ Prof (Chavez can reach 97).

But let’s calm done about how the Rays have somehow “reinvented” the game of baseball, when all they really did was dump a $5 million salary for a middle reliever that is not much better than Joe Nelson.

*We have heard many people refer to this move as a “sign-and-trade.” Exactly where was the “sign” part? The Rays and Aki did not agree to an extension before the trade. The 2010 salary is part of Aki’s original contract. Sure it could have been voided, But Aki did not “sign” anything.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Joe Henderson of the Tampa Tribune says moving Akinori Iwamura hurts the Rays chemistry and in doing so takes a none-too-subtle shot at Pat Burrell: “If you think [being good in the clubhouse is] not a factor, then you weren’t around Pat Burrell much this summer.” [Tampa Tribune]
• The Rays Party has everything you ever needed to know about Jesse Chavez. [The Rays Party]
• Aki Iwamura is already saying he is open to the idea of signing a long-term deal with the Pirates. [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]
• Baseball Daily Digest feels that one force pushing the Pirates to trade for Akinori Iwamura is their desire to appeal to Asian players. [Baseball Daily Digest]
• The Hardball Times feels Akinori Iwamura is “clearly overpaid,” and is surprised the Rays were able to get a “fireballing reliever.” [The Hardball Times]
• Beyond the Boxscore seems to think Aki is worth $12.4 million in production, or about $7.5 million more than he will be paid in 2010. [Beyond the Boxscore]
• Sabernomics calls the deal “pretty even” and “mutually beneficial.” [Sabernomics]
• Raise the Jolly Roger is not that thrilled about giving up a decent relief pitcher for a one-year rental. [Raise the Jolly Roger]
• Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke? is warming up to the Akinori Iwamura trade and likes the prospect of now appealing more to international free agents. [Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke?]

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | 14 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: The Hangover

[Update] We have just learned from Buster Olney that the Rays will receive relief pitcher Jesse Chavez from the Pirates. Chavez, 26 is a right-handed pitcher, that played his first full big league season in 2009. A 42nd round draft pick in 2002, Chavez posted a 4.01 ERA in 73 appearances (67.1 ip) this past season with 47 Ks and 22 walks.

[Update] Topkin says the Pirates are the team. Still no word on who would come back to the Rays.

[Update] Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette believes the Pirates are involved in trade talks with the Rays for Iwamura.

[Update] Roger Mooney of the Bradenton Herald says that the deal is expected to be completed tonight [Ed. note: The teams may agree to terms tonight, but trades cannot be finalized with MLB until after the World Series]. He also suggests that Iwamura could be headed to a National League team. It is not clear if the destination is based on Mooney’s insider information or speculation.

[2:34pm] You just knew the Rays would only pick up Akinori Iwamura’s option if they already the framework for a trade in place. With the deadline for the Rays to decide on Aki’s option either Thursday or Friday, Marc Topkin is reporting that the Rays are indeed close to a deal that would move the second baseman.

Just got back to New York and heard from an industry source who’s not with the Rays that they are on the verge of completing a trade of 2B Akinori Iwamura…What’s interesting is that the source indicated the deal wasn’t with the Cubs or the Dodgers as has been speculated on but to an unexpected team.

The Twins took a player off their 40-man roster today. Might that be the connection? With Delmon Young finally producing down the stretch, the Twins may be willing to deal with the Rays again.

Of course, the real question is: How much can the Rays get for a player that everybody knows they didn’t want? If the Rays can come away with a decent prospect and/or a relief pitcher that can contribute in 2010, this will be a great deal.

Rays working on Iwamura deal [The Heater]

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | 24 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags:

Last February we performed a meta-analysis of the Rays’ top prospects, in which we built a composite ranking of the top 14 players in the system based on eight different rankings and our own “Trade Value Index“. Let’s take a look back at the list and see how each of those players performed in 2008 and gauge whether or not they are living up to the hype.

1. David Price, 2007-1st rd (avg. rank: 1.0) 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA is a decent year for any rookie starting pitcher, but fell short of the preseason expectation in which many pegged King David as the odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year. In the end, he wasn’t even the best rookie pitcher on the Rays. As a power lefty, his strikeouts per 9 innings (7.15) needs to be closer to 9.00 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.89) needs to be closer to 3.00. He did show improvement down the stretch with a 3.82 ERA and a 2.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the final two months. With the reigns ready to come off in 2010, the expectations will be higher. Another so-so season and many will wonder if his future is in the bullpen…YET TO SHOW DOMINANCE AS A STARTER

2. Tim Beckham, 2008-1st rd (avg. rank: 2.9) As a 19-year old in the South Atlantic League, Beckham’s .275-5-63 with a .717 OPS and .350 wOBA is respectable for his first full pro season. The lack of power (42 extra-base hits) is not a concern as he should fill out and get stronger as he gets older. And as he matures, he will improve on the 13-23 stolen bases. The biggest concern of course is the defense and his 43 errors. The optimist points to Derek Jeter’s 56 errors at the same age in the same league. The naysayer points to BJ Upton’s 42 errors at age 18 in the SALy. He needs to improve his OBP (.328), base stealing and defense, but there is nothing yet to suggest Beckham can’t be a big leaguer…LONG WAY TO GO BUT STILL ON TRACK

3. Wade Davis, 2004-3rd rd (avg. rank: 3.0) Big Dub made 28 starts in Durham and did not show the dominance many expected. His strikeouts per 9 innings went down from 9.34 (in AAA in ‘08) to 7.94 but was better than the 6.77 rate he showed in 19 double-A starts in 2008. Some thought he would fill the same role (RP) in 2009 that David Price filled in 2008. But with the Rays out of contention, he was promoted in September and made 6 starts.  The early returns were promising, including a 4-hit shutout and two 7-inning starts in which he allowed just 1 run. Of course, the best news is with 194 ip this season, he won’t have the same restrictions in 2010 that Price had this season, and will be free to throw 200-220 innings and be the workhorse the Rays expect…COULD BE ROOKIE OF YEAR CONTENDER IN 2010

4. Reid Brignac, 2004-2nd rd (avg. rank: 5.8) A .278 average in 31 games with the Rays is decent, but he needs to be much better than the .301 OBP and .323 wOBA if he ever wants to be an everyday player on a good team. His .311 and .329 wOBAs the past two years in AAA suggest that he may never be the big league hitter many had hoped. His defense should be fine, although a -3.1 UZR as a big league shortstop is not a good start. The small ballparks in the California League and his 2006 season might still have Brignac convinced that he is a power hitter when he should be trying to punch the gaps…NO LONGER A TOP PROSPECT

5. Jeremy Hellickson, 2005-4th rd (avg. rank: 5.9) He missed a month and a half early in the season, but never missed a beat, going 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 132 strikeouts to only 29 walks in 20 starts combined between double-A and triple-A. And all at the age of 22. No longer the too-small-for-a-righty, or too-slow-fastball, Hellboy has jumped to the top of the Rays pitching prospect ranks. And one need look no further than the 4.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.0 is considered good) to see that Hellickson projects very well as a big league pitcher. He will begin the 2010 season in triple-A, but should be the first one off the minor league bench should a starter be needed on the parent club…NOW ONE OF TOP PROSPECTS IN BASEBALL

6. Desmond Jennings, 2006-10th rd (avg. rank: 6.1) Jennings 2009 season was the hitter’s version of what Jeremy Hellickson did. He was great at double-A and even better in triple-A. In his first injury-free season as a pro, Jennings went a combined .318-11-62 with an .888 OPS and 52 of 59 stolen bases. The only thing holding Jennings back is experience. Due to injuries, he still has only 311 games as a pro in 4 seasons. Jennings is the heir apparent somewhere. We just aren’t sure if that is center field or left field. Eventually the Rays will need to move Carl Crawford or BJ Upton, and when they do, Jennings will be ready to step in…RAYS NEXT GREAT OUTFIELDER

7. Nick Barnese, 2007-3rd rd (avg. rank: 8.5) Along with Matt Moore, Barnese is one of the Rays’ two big pitching prospects in the low-minors. Only 20, Barnese did not make his ‘09 debut until June but pitched well in the second-half, going 6-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 15 starts. However, his 4.00 tRA and 3.43 FIP suggest he did not pitch as well as his ERA would leave you to believe. You would like to see more than 62 strikeouts for the right-hander in low-A, but that may have been due to the extended vacation early in the year. Should still be a top-10 prospect for the Rays, but another so-so season in 2010 and he will start to slip…NEEDS A STRONG 2010

8. Matt Moore, 2007-8th rd (avg. rank: 8.8) Also only 20, Moore proved in his first full-season of pro ball that he is the real deal. The lefty went 8-5 with a 3.15 ERA and an impressive 176 Ks in only 123 innings. In the coming years, you would like to see him cut back on his walks (5.12/9 inn), but that is only a minor concern at this point…WILL MOVE UP A COUPLE OF SPOTS NEXT YEAR

9. Jake McGee, 2004-5th rd (avg. rank: 9.3) McGee, once one of the Rays’ top prospects, made his return from Tommy John surgery late in the year and made 11 limited appearances for Charlotte in high-A. His 26 strikeouts to only 9 walks in 22.1 innings is promising, but we won’t know if he is back to his old self until this spring when he should be 100% for the first time. Many feel his future is as a closer. It will be interesting to see if he is moved to the bullpen sooner rather than later…NEEDS TO PROVE AGAIN THAT HE BELONGS NEAR TOP OF THE THIS LIST

10. Jeff Niemann, 2004-1st rd (avg. rank: 9.3) Niemann slipped on this list after 2 mediocre seasons in triple-A, but surprised many with his strong showing in his rookie campaign for the Rays. His 13-6 record and 3.94 ERA will garner him votes in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Joe Maddon’s most dependable starter in 2009, we still need to see if the Giraffe can take the ball and be effective every 5 days. In 2009 he made 16 starts on extra rest (3.67 ERA) and only 14 starts on normal rest (4.09 ERA)…PROVED HE CAN BE GOOD, BUT CAN HE BE GREAT?

11. John Jaso, 2003-12th rd (avg. rank: 11.1) Jaso is the toughest guy on this list to gauge, because we just don’t know enough about his defense. When we talked to a member of the Montgomery staff, the word was that he has shown steady improvement, but that there was still work to be done. What we do know is that he only threw out 17% of would-be basestealers, and that is not good. Offensively he will never be an all-star, but his .350 wOBA and 49-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggests that he should adapt well to the big league level. The problem is he probably doesn’t have enough power to play a position other than catcher and at 26 his prospect clock is about to expire…PROBABLY NOT ON THIS LIST IN 2010

12. Fernando Perez, 2004-7th rd (avg. rank: 11.8) His 2009 season was cut short when he broke his wrist in the spring. That was a huge setback as Perez’ ticket to the bigs seems to depend on his ability to learn to hit left-handed. When he finally returned in September, it was obvious that all he could do from the left-side was bunt. He will be 27 in 2010 and his prospect years are behind him. He is also running out of seasons to take advantage of his speed…NO LONGER A TOP PROSPECT

13. Mitch Talbot, 2002-2nd rd (avg. rank: 12.4) Talbot will be out of minor league options in 2010 and has been passed by younger and better prospects. Unless the Rays think he can fill a need in the bullpen, his days in the Rays organization are almost over…WILL NO LONGER BE ON THIS LIST

14. Jake Jefferies, 2008-3rd rd (avg. rank: 16.0) All we know about his defense is that he threw out 26% of basestealers. Offensively, he hit .261-8-50 with an anemic .686 OPS and a .328 wOBA. It was his first full season as a pro and their is still a lot of development to go through…STILL A FRINGE PROSPECT

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | 3 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags:

The Rays appear to have two options with Aki’s option (see what we did there!)

1. Decline the option and move forward with some combination of Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac at second base.
2. Pick up the option and try to trade Aki for a bullpen arm and/or prospects.

The downside to the second option is: a) Another team will know the Rays would be desperate to trade Aki, and if there isn’t a big market, they can hold out for next-to-nothing; b) What happens if the Rays cannot trade Aki? All of the sudden they are on the hook for $4.25 million with a player that might not have a position in 2010.

Of course, knowing the Rays, they will only pick up Aki’s option if they already have some assurance from another club that a trade is doable. The benefit to the other club is that the $4.25 million option is probably less than they would have to pay for Iwamura on the open market.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Chris Richard was removed from the 40-man roster. He has the option of choosing free agency over a demotion to Durham.
• Carl Crawford won the Fielding Bible Award for being the top defensive left fielder. Of course, being named the best defensive left fielder is kinda like being named the best-looking Pug. There is a reason Gold Glove awards don’t differentiate among outfield positions. [The Heater]
• Among several other items from Marc Topkin, we learn that Gabe Kapler “fits several needs” for the Rays even if he is just a 5th outfielder and Dave Martinez talked to the Indians about their managerial position. [St. Pete Times]
• Dock of the Rays discusses Aki Iwamura’s option. [Dock of the Rays]
• According to one metric, Matt Joyce was the 4th best defensive right fielder in the minors this past season. [The Hardball Times]

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | 6 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: The Hangover

Joe Maddon Is Too Good For The Rays [Rays Index]

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | 3 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Archives

Mission accomplished.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• The Rays announced their ticket prices for 2010. [St. Pete Times]
• The Rays sister franchise in the UFL is set to play at the Trop tonight. [MLB]
• MLB Trade Rumors, where we moonlight from time to time, has been working through their list of the top trades of the past 10 years. Of course, Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano makes the list. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• Well, Don Zimmer’s grandson said that Zim and Pedro Martinez had kissed and made up. Sure doesn’t seem like it now. [St. Pete Times]

© The Professor for Rays Index, 2009. | Permalink | One comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: The Hangover