I have been a huge Ellsbury supporter for some time, ranking him seventh before his disastrous 2010 campaign. I truly believed Ellsbury had elite talent and could improve upon his power. Of course, 2010 was a complete waste.

Then in 2011, no matter what format you played in, Ellsbury was a top performer (#2 on ESPN’s player rater, for what it’s worth). Depending on Ryan Braun’s suspension, I have Ellsbury 6th or 7th.  Fleaflicker has him 7th overall.

Grey has him at 12 in his top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball, which is a travesty. Outside of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki, Ellsbury is the only surefire five category contributor. The only thing players like Fielder, Votto and Adrian Gonzalez have over Ellsbury is they will hit 10-15 more HRs and knock in 30 more runs. Ellsbury will pace them by a bunch of runs, out-steal them likes he’s the Hamburglar and they’re Grimace and bat for a better average. By my count, he wins 3 categories, while the slow lumbering 1Bs win two. Thanks to Sesame Street and the Count, I know 3 is greater than 2.

Let’s address the  hesitancy surrounding Ellsbury, i.e., his power. His .230 ISO last year was leaps and bounds better than anything he ever did at any level (presumably since little league).

Will he hit 30+ HRs again in 2012?

No, I don’t think so (obviously it’s possible, but not overly plausible). Still, scouts have believed Ellsbury could settle into the high teens/low 20s in terms of HR output and that seems logical. I’ll pencil him in for 20 HRs.

So he needs to make up the value for a loss of 12 HRs. He’ll do so by getting on base consistently, to the tune of a .320 average and .370 OBP. With that, he’s a lock to score 100+ runs. Furthermore, in a potent Red Sox line-up, 75 RBIs seem to be a given, with significant upside there as well.

And with all that getting on base comes steals. In his last three full seasons, he has stolen 50, 70 and 39 bases. I think 40 is by far the low watermark, with 45-50 being a reasonable expectation. Again, he has upside.

There are very few first round picks with upside. Ellsbury has that. If I’m picking in drafts, I want to be later in the first round to secure Ellsbury and grab a slugger when it comes back to me. That’s a winning formula.

In short:

You want Ellsbury on your team, you need Ellsbury on your team. We use words like BABIP, FIP, RBI. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent on fantasy baseball…

Ellsbury is a few good men, um, man– Well, you get the idea.

1. Miguel Cabrera – Let’s take the top off this Popov and shoot one down for Swiggy.   Forget the millions of dollars he’s earned.  Being Razzball’s number one player is his happiest moment.  2012 Projections:  105/32/115/.325/3

2. Albert Pujols – In the top 10 for fantasy baseball, I said Al Gore invented the internet and Pujols invented Al Gore.  Or something like that.  2012 Projections:  100/35/110/.305/7

3. Joey Votto – “His name rhymes with blotto.”  That’s Miguel Cabrera pointing at Votto while making small talk at the All-Star Game with Josh Hamilton.  2012 Projections:  100/30/110/.315/10

4. Jose Bautista – Please don’t let Joey Bats fail me now.  Not after it took me two years to get pot-committed to him.  2012 Projections:  100/38/105/.265/10

5. Evan Longoria – Your 2012 American League MVP is… Evan Longoria.  Now please let him stay off the herpes medication.  2012 Projections:  105/34/120/.280/7

6. Matt Kemp – Some people are taking Kemp first overall.  I won’t.  2012 Projections:  100/30/105/.290/25

7. Troy Tulowitzki – If he only misses one month this year, I hope it’s March or October.  2012 Projections:  95/32/110/.305/10

8. Justin Upton – Nothing sexier than Justin Upton this year.  Well, maybe Kate Upton.  Meow!  2012 Projections:  100/30/100/.300/20

9. Prince Fielder – I hear he’s petitioning the Tigers to change their name to the Zebras.  The stripes are slimming.  When he went to the Tigers, I went over my Prince Fielder 2012 fantasy.  2012 Projections:  100/37/115/.280

10. Adrian Gonzalez – My hope is he does less spray hitting and more power hitting.  I’m also praying for world peace.  2012 Projections:  100/32/115/.275

11. Robinson Cano – Our first Yankee!*  (*ESPN passed a law through Congress that by the 450th word of every sports related blog post there must be a mention of the Yankees.) 2012 Projections:  105/27/105/.310/5

12. Jacoby Ellsbury – Our 2nd Red Sox!* (*Similar law.) 2012 Projections:  110/17/70/.295/45

13. Ian Kinsler – In the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball, I have Kinsler above a bunch of players that are being drafted after him.  I didn’t do this with the intent that I would have Kinsler on every team, but I will happily take him.  Please stay healthy.  Please.  2012 Projections:  100/25/70/.260/25

14. Jose Reyes – I have Kinsler, Reyes and Hanley back-to-back-to-back, so, basically, I’m tempting fate here.  If all three stay healthy and produce, I’ll be impressed.  Not exactly what you want to hear at this point in a draft.  2012 Projections:  110/12/50/.295/45

15. Hanley Ramirez – Nothing says team player like… Well, whatever the opposite of Hanley would be.  Here comes 3rd base eligibility and disgruntlement (Word of the Day!).  2012 Projections:  90/20/105/.305/25

16. Carlos Gonzalez – Can I add CarGo to the Kinsler/Reyes/Hanley troika of risk/upside?  Hey, I just did.  But now it’s not a troika.  It’s a fourka!  2012 Projections:  100/25/100/.300/18

17. Andrew McCutchen – From Ellsbury to here, The Dread Pirate might actually be the safest, which means he’ll be the only one to get hurt.  I’m joking/jinxing, or jonking.  Sorry, the 2nd round always gets me nervous.  2012 Projections:  95/25/100/.275/30

18. Mike Stanton – I haven’t been as crazy as I am for Stanton since Ryan Klesko grew out his side burns.  It’s true love and I have Stanton’s name scribbled all over my Trapper Keeper to prove it.  2012 Projections:  100/37/115/.260/7

19. Roy Halladay – He’s probably safer than some of the above names, but there’s also a gazillion (plus or minus a million) starters.  No need to take one so early.  2012 Projections:  20-7/2.50/1.05/215

20. Dustin Pedroia – I won’t own him.  Not that I don’t think he’s going to give you the stats that I project, but because I’ll be taking someone else above.  2012 Projections:  105/18/80/.295/20

21. Clayton Kershaw – This is where the rankings get a little tricky.  I tried to look at ADP to avoid putting some of these guys above where they’re being taken.  So I like Kershaw, but I want someone else to take him first.  Just too many pitchers to be taking one this early.  2012 Projections:  17-7/2.55/1.05/230

22. Cliff Lee – I said most of what I had to say about The Adverb in Kershaw’s blurb.  2012 Projections:  18-8/2.50/1.05/215

23. Justin Verlander – Um, yeah, still see above.  Or see the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  2012 Projections:  18-7/2.75/1.08/240

24. David Wright – Also, I need to say something in general about this top 100.  If I’ve drafted Longoria or Bautista already, I’m not taking Wright.  Though if I haven’t taken Longoria or Bautista, which is a possibility since they’re the only 3rd basemen in the top 20, then I’m grabbing Wright.  2012 Projections:  85/24/100/.290/15

25. Adrian Beltre – Also, I’m not taking Beltre if I’ve taken Wright, Bautista or Longoria, which means I’m probably owning Jay Bruce this year.  Unless I have an outfielder but not a 3rd baseman.  Well, I’ll go over all the draft strategy pairings in a separate post.  2012 Projections:  75/28/100/.280/3

26. Jay Bruce – Pretty surprised to see Bruce much lower in ADP as of right now.  Hey, over-the-internet friend, outfield is shallow.  There’s a lot of other outfielders that are giving you five categories?  Rhetorical!  2012 Projections:  90/34/100/.270/10

27. Tim Lincecum – Like Digital Underground, he’s outta the Bay Area and he’s a freak of the industry and he’s money, B.  Still don’t see any way I’m drafting him.  Too many offensive slots to fill early on.  2012 Projections:  15-10/2.75/1.18/230

28. Josh Hamilton – Hey, look at that, Hamilton is ranked 28th.  As in the number of rehab days for Sandra Bullock in that terrible movie.  Since most everyone likes Hamilton more than Bruce, there’s a good chance I don’t own Hamilton this year.  Unless, of course, after drafting something like 7 teams I decide to mix it up for variety sake.  Also, the deeper the league, the more I’m avoiding Hamilton.  As pointed out in the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Now, if I sense Hamilton going cheaper just because he likes his tonic with gin, then I’d draft him.  Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle* would be proud I didn’t let a little thing like alcohol abuse stop me from drafting him.  (*Sorry, every 450th word.)  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.295/7

29. Felix Hernandez – Will be fun when ESPN is talking about how F-Her is having a bounce back in twelve-after-twenty even though he wasn’t bad last year.  Good fun!  2012 Projections:  15-12/2.80/1.14/220

30. Nelson Cruz – Imagine you’re playing charades, Nelson Cruz is your partner and the phrase to guess is “always injured.”  Cruz would just point at himself.  2012 Projections:  70/30/85/.260/10

31. Mark Teixeira – Albert Lang went over his Teixeira overrated thingie-ma-boob.  I don’t disagree.  2012 Projections:  100/35/110/.260

32. Dan Uggla – He is being drafted on average in the 50′s.  Guess who has two thumbs, two pinkies, is making the “Hang Loose” sign and is gonna own Uggla this year?  This guy!  2012 Projections:  90/35/105/.250/3

33. Pablo Sandoval – Guess who has two thumbs, two pinkies, is making the “Hang Loose” sign, hasn’t showered since last week and is hopefully gonna own a third baseman before he gets out of the third round?  Still this guy!  2012 Projections:  80/27/95/.320/3

34. Ryan Zimmerman – Guess who has two thumbs, two pinkies, is making the “Hang Loose” sign, hasn’t showered since last week, is eating ice cream out of his belly button and is hopefully gonna own a third baseman before he gets out of the third round?  Same guy, different blurb!  2012 Projections:  80/27/100/.290/5

35. CC Sabathia – I have an idea for the All-Star Game weekend.  Pie eating contest between Eugenio Velez and Dee Gordon with CC and Prince as their coaches.  Imagine the agony on CC’s face when Dee Gordon can’t get down more than a forkful.  Why am I not in charge of the All-Star Game festivities?  2012 Projections:  20-7/3.10/1.20/210

36. Hunter Pence – First full year in Citizens Flank, which could mean he exceeds my projections.  Even if he doesn’t, he’s one of the safest bets out of the first 40 picks.  Ed Wade’s Toupee would be proud, wherever it is.  I’m guessing a tropical island.  2012 Projections:  95/25/100/.280/10

37. Curtis Granderson – I’m a big fan of Grandy this year.  Now look at that sentence in the mirror.  Here’s a post I dedicated to my Granderson reverse love.  2012 Projections: 100/29/90/.255/18

38. Elvis Andrus – Younger, healthier version of Reyes with 5 less homers.  Can’t put it to you any simpler.  2012 Projections:  105/7/60/.285/40

39. Starlin Castro – Usually when people get excited about a player, I get cynical and excuse myself to the lavatory to barf.  In this case, I kinda like Castro.  2012 Projections:  100/12/70/.310/20

40. Zack Greinke – First top ranked pitcher I have a legitimate shot at owning.  I’m so fine with that, I’m finer with it.  If that made any sense.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/220

41. Cole Hamels – I’ve got no quarrel with Hamels, but if I’ve just drafted Greinke there’s no way I’m owning Cole.  Just the facts, Jack Black Kerouac.  (<–alliteration in lieu of wit!) 2012 Projections:  15-10/2.95/1.10/200

42. Brett Lawrie – I already went over my Lawrie 2012 fantasy.  I had it dry cleaned for you.  2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.290/24

43. Paul Konerko – I want a 3rd baseman early.  I want an outfielder early.  I’ll definitely take a 1st baseman early.  The problem?  I don’t have enough picks for all the early picks I want.  Um… Crap?  2012 Projections:  85/29/100/.290

44. Alex Rodriguez – Out of 44 picks, this is the 8th 3rd baseman from the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  ESPN, “Yay, that means it’s deep!”  Reality, “No, that means eight 3rd basemen will be gone quickly and then things get tricky.”  ESPN, “Whatever.  Go Yankees and Red Sox!”  2012 Projections:  70/24/85/.270/5

45. Howie Kendrick – Random Razzball Commenter, “Why is Kendrick ranked above some outfielders here that he’s ranked below on the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball?”  February Grey, “Because he has 2nd base eligibility.  If Matt Holliday had 2nd base eligibility, he’d be ranked here.”  Random Razzball Commenter, “I love your mustache.”  February Grey, “Thank you.”  2012 Projections:  100/18/70/.290/15

46. Brandon Phillips – Wanna see some value?  Why are you looking under your desk?  The value isn’t there.  Look at Pedroia’s projections and look at Phillips’s.  There’s the value.  2012 Projections:  90/20/85/.275/17

47. Matt Holliday – Maybe Holliday will pull a Claire Danes, but I doubt it.  To explain:  I don’t like Claire Danes.  I’ve managed to avoid everything she’s ever done.  Yet, she’s surprised me with Homeland.  Best drama on TV, assuming Mad Men’s on hiatus.  Yes, better than Boardwalk Empire.  Though, I haven’t started watching Breaking Bad yet and am still trying to figure out how I feel about Luck.  Confused is one word that comes to mind with Luck.  Only thing disappointing about Homeland is I keep waiting for Claire Danes to introduce her gay best friend played by Carlos Beltran.  2012 Projections:  85/24/90/.305/5

48. Carlos Santana – Taking a wild guess here, but I’m thinking I don’t draft Santana anywhere ranking him this low.  Last year, I took a lot of heat for ranking Posey in the 90′s overall.  How’d that work out for you?  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.260/5

49. Madison Bumgarner – I’m uber-high on Bumgarner.  Yes, I used uber.  Here’s my Bumgarner 2012 fantasy too.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/200

50. Yovani Gallardo – If I didn’t draft a starter yet, obviously I’m taking one in this player grouping.  Or plouping, which sounds like a Swedish person going to the bathroom.  2012 Projections:  15-9/3.15/1.20/210

51. David Price – Leave the fan on cause we’re still in the same plouping.  If you’re pooped from this ploup, there’s good news.  There’s only one more to drop.  It’s below you.  No, down.  2012 Projections:  15-10/3.20/1.18/200

52. Jon Lester – Hey!  Glad you found it.  He’s the courtesy flush before we leave this plouping.  2012 Projections:  16-9/3.25/1.22/200

53. Chase Utley – Worth pointing out here that Utley is the 7th 2nd baseman from the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball in 53 names.  What’s going on here is I’m making sure I have at least one top 2nd baseman so I can grab another 2nd baseman for my middle infield slot.  Then I only have to deal with one shortstop.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.280/15

54. Aramis Ramirez – I’d throw Aramis in with those Hamilton/Cruz-types that I’d be careful about in very deep leagues where it’s not as easy to fill in off waivers because Aramis always misses time.  2012 Projections:  75/25/95/.295

55. Kevin Youkilis – I see Youuuuuuuuk being drafted in the 80′s overall.  I hate to write a sleeper post on him because it’ll be as lame as my Vernon Wells sleeper post, but Youuuuuuuk’s a bargain in drafts this year.  Cust kayin’.  2012 Projections:  75/19/85/.270/3

56. Lance Berkman - You know what’s gonna be weird?  When I don’t have a 1st baseman yet and Berkman’s name pops up in my queue.  That’s gonna be awkward after all the bad things I said about him last year.  2012 Projections:  80/24/95/.275/3

57. Michael Young - Old Young is being drafted on average fifteen spots before Youuuuuuk.  Whole lotta average lovers out there.  2012 Projections:  75/15/90/.310/5

58. Eric Hosmer – Trying to figure out how to justify putting Hosmer ahead of Berkman and Young even though I don’t have him in front of them on my top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.  I could see a potential scenario where I don’t have a 1st baseman and I take Hosmer before the previous two.  What I’d prefer to happen is I have a 1st baseman so there’s no need to take Berkman or Young, and then Hosmer is around for me to take a little later for my corner infidel slot.  This seems highly unlikely though since Hosmer’s ADP is above even 58.  Oh, well.  2012 Projections:  85/25/95/.280/10

59. Brian McCann – I punt catcher so this is merely a formality ranking him here.  I’ll go over catcher strategy in its own post.  Continued in the next blurb.  2012 Projections:  70/25/85/.275/3

60. Matt Wieters – But, and this is a J. Lo-sized but, I could see ignoring Wieters if he’s there at the 60th pick, but grabbing him before his ADP of 100-ish.  2012 Projections:  80/24/85/.280

61. Dan Haren – Doesn’t he seem older than 31 years old?  Maybe he’s got that Benjamin Button disease.  That was a true story, right?  2012 Projections:  17-10/3.30/1.12/190

62. Jimmy Rollins – Now here’s a guy that seems older than 31 years old.  *checking notes*  Oh, he is.  He’s 33.  Yeah, speed doesn’t age well.  Neither do Phillies.  Comatose Marlins Fan, “Too bad my team never spends any money or we might actually compete this year.”  Comatose Marlins Fan, I have some good news for you.  2012 Projections:  80/14/55/.270/24

63. Asdrubal Cabrera – I was all ready to write an overrated post for Asdrubal, and maybe I still will once more people come out with their rankings, but right now I think the fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) are on the money with where they’re taking Asdrubal.  2012 Projections:  80/14/70/.270/15

64. Jered Weaver – I’m pretty down on Weaver (not like that!) compared to other ‘perts.  February Grey’s mantra, “Too many pitchers to choose from so, if I’m not into one of them, I’m moving on.”  So it’s not the most soothing mantra.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.35/1.12/200

65. C.J. Wilson – You can read what I wrote about Weaver in the mirror.  .artnam gnihtoos tsom eht ton s’ti oS  No, I meant, I’m up on Wilson compared to being down on Weaver.  Still don’t mean it like that.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.45/1.21/190

66. Shane Victorino – “Every time I try to get out of drafting Victorino, I get pulled back in!”  That’s me looking at Victorino’s ADP compared to where I’ve ranked him.  Is it too much to ask for people to get excited about him so I don’t have to draft him?  He’s really good!  Did that help?  2012 Projections:  85/15/55/.275/20

67. Craig Kimbrel – Yeah, I don’t draft top closers.  SAGNOF!  2012 Projections:  5-2/2.20/1.08/110, 40 saves

68. Michael Morse – From this next plouping of outfielders, I’m looking for my 2nd outfielder in 5 outfielder leagues.  Since at this point, I’ll have quite a few players I wouldn’t necessarily say I’m taking Morse over Jennings.  If I have Bruce or Stanton, I may feel like I need speed more than Morse provides.  If I have Uggla, I may not take Fellatio Upton because of average concerns.  If I have Wright, I may not take Heyward because they both need to bounce back.  This is where things become interesting.  I mean that sincerely.  I’m a nerd!  2012 Projections:  80/27/90/.275/3

69. Desmond Jennings – I’m gonna go easy on my love for Jennings because if Stanton hears me… Well, I just don’t want to ruin what we have.  To read my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy.  Do that click you do.  2012 Projections:  80/16/65/.275/35

70. B.J. Upton – Spoiler alert:  I like B.J.  Usually before I say that, I say, “Soiler alert.”  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.250/40

71. Adam Jones – I drafted Adam Jones in my first 2012 fantasy baseball mock that I’ll post next week.  I gotta be honest.  Drafting Jones didn’t get any tingling going in my nethers.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.285/12

72. Drew Stubbs – Stubbs and Krispie both seem good in theory.  Don’t under any circumstances draft them on the same team or with any other guy who I have projected for .250 or lower.  Cause if two of them miss their marks and hit .240, you’re like Dunn done.  2012 Projections:  80/17/55/.240/40

73. Krispie Young – See Stubbs’s blurb or 1/8th of an inch above.  2012 Projections:  85/25/80/.235/25

74. Jason Heyward – Here’s something that I don’t think I mentioned in the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball post.  If Heyward has another terrible year, he’ll be ranked around 200th overall for 2013.  I just don’t see that happening.  2012 Projections:  80/22/90/.280/10

75. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a plouping inside a plouping.  I’m not crazy about Choo, but I have him low enough where I shouldn’t own him anyway.  2012 Projections:  80/17/85/.280/17

76. Carl Crawford – Really wanted to believe in the bounce back.  I did, really.  Really, really.  But wrist surgery, really?  2012 Projections:  75/10/70/.280/30

77. Alex Gordon – I’m not a fan of guys coming off career years unless they’re like 24 years old and could get better.  That’s just me being real with ya.  2012 Projections:  85/20/100/.280/12

78. Brett Gardner – If Ellsbury is less valuable than Gardner in 2012, you have to pay me a $1.  Any takers?  (Sure, there’s no scenario here where I give you money, but are you taking the bet?  Yes or no?)  2012 Projections:  105/8/50/.280/50

79. Jayson Werth – Watch Werth carry the Nats to the World Series.  That would surprise you?  Okay, a little.  But it does sound within the realm of possibility.  2012 Projections:  75/22/90/.265/15

80. Mike Napoli – I already went over my Napoli overrated post.  It was written by Mike Scioscia.  2012 Projections:  60/25/70/.250/3

81. Buster Posey – As someone mentioned in that Napoli overrated post, I could’ve just said any catcher drafted before 100 overall is a schmohawk.  Kinda true when you think about how many people have wasted Posey draft picks in his short career.  2012 Projections:  65/20/75/.300

82. Michael Cuddyer – Kinda surprised me how high I ranked Cuddyer.  Not a good surprise, or a bad surprise, just a surprise.  2012 Projections:  75/22/85/.275/5

83. Mark Reynolds – Draft Reynolds and get the Mini Donkey show.  Home run, steal, strikeout whiff strikeout whiff strikeout whiff, home run, steal, strikeout whiff strikeout whiff strikeout whiff.  He likes to get his whiffs in.  2012 Projections:  75/35/90/.230/7

84. Adam Lind – Let’s see if you can guess what I’m drafting now.  No, not a pitcher!  I’m drafting a corner man.  I have no problem filling up my corner infidel slot before I even have a shortstop.  I actually don’t mind drafting a middle infidel before a shortstop.  That would mean two 2nd basemen before a shortstop for those slow on the uptake.  2012 Projections:  90/32/105/.270

85. Billy Butler – I kinda wanna own Butler this year.  I know, it makes little sense.  But so does that fact he just had a solid year and his ADP actually went down from last year.  2012 Projections:  90/20/100/.300

86. Ryan Howard – The positive is you’ll be able to DL him.  The negative is no one knows for how long.  2012 Projections:  70/28/100/.260

87. Gio Gonzalez – People will look at this high ranking of Gio like I lost my stuffing that stuffs my head that some people call brains.  Fair enough, but there’s no way the rankings go exactly in this order, unless 12 people are all drafting from the same top 100 list.  And keeping exactly to it.  As soon as some schmohawk drafts Mariano Rivera 80th overall, the entire order shifts.  So the chances of you drafting Gio at, say, pick 120th is good.  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.28/200

88. Matt Cain – Recently, saw someone I went to high school with post on Facebook a bumper sticker that said, “Kane is able.”  Then they wrote, “Clever!”  Then 20 people thumbed it up.  On a related note, I have no idea who these people are I went to high school with.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.10/1.10/180

89. Mat Latos – The thought is that a pitcher leaving Petco will take a hit-slash-get hit.  Yeah, agreed.  But Latos has the stuff to play in any park and now he’ll actually have an offense.  Win-win.  Literally.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.50/1.20/200

90. Stephen Strasburg – I don’t see how I’m going to end up with Strasburg unless I reach way above this ranking or compete in a 12 team league with 11 relatives who don’t like baseball.  I don’t even think I have 11 relatives.  Grey’s family is small, yo!  2012 Projections:  12-5/2.90/1.10/165 in 160 innings

91. Daniel Hudson – I don’t look at where people are drafting every player until after I do my rankings, so I’m not needlessly influenced.  With that said, I was happy to see Hudson around this spot so there’s a chance I could get him.  Yay for me.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.40/1.18/190

92. Jordan Zimmermann – Would’ve been crazy to think this in 2011, but as early as next year, Ryan Zimmerman could be drafted after Jordan Zimmermann if Ryan can’t hang with J-Z and the “Ninjas in Paris.”  That is what the asterisks are for, right?  2012 Projections:  14-6/3.25/1.15/170

93. Logan Morrison -  My best friend Harry has a brother Larry in five days from now– Oh, sorry, was listening to my iTunes.  Um, yeah, Morrison… Um… Well, you know what he does.  2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.270/5

94. Peter Bourjos – Frequent commenter and, I believe one of our three girl readers, pubscout, alerted me that Bourjos is nursing a hip injury.  If that’s the reason why he’s fast like a gazelle, but his steals were down last year, I might have to drop him in my rankings.  You’ve been caveated.  2012 Projections: 85/15/50/.255/35

95. Ben Zobrist – Maybe his Christian-rock-singing wife can write a little ditty called, “There’s No Middle Infidel In My Heart That Does What You Do.”  2012 Projections:  75/17/90/.255/17

96. Rickie Weeks – Draft him and then start thinking about who you’re going to pick up to fill in for him when he’s hurt.  2012 Projections:  65/18/50/.260/10

97. Ike Davis – Here’s hoping the Mets move their fences to just off the infield grass.  2012 Projections:  85/22/90/.280

98. John Axford – To talk as if all I watch is infomercials, I think Axford is gonna be more wow than sham, but I’m still not drafting a top closer.  2012 Projections:  5-1/2.40/1.16/90, 38 saves

99. Matt Garza - Pray that somehow, against all odds Phil Collins-style the Padres become contenders and they trade for Garza mid-season.  2012 Projections:  12-10/3.40/1.25/190

100. Anibal Sanchez - I already dropped on you an Anibal Sanchez fantasy.  I talk about things in that post that are unprintable.  Luckily, no one’s printing it out.  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.24/190

1)  The addition of Pujols creates a logjam, which sounds very odd.  But it’s true.  I went over my thoughts when he landed in Bobby Grichville.  What do you think?  Specifically, does Mark Trumbo play and where?

First Trumbo has to get healthy. He’s got a weird foot thing, which is weird because the guy he replaced had a weird foot thing, and the guy who is writing this answer has a weird foot thing. I just like the shape of them. Can I see your foot? The left one.

But the problem with even a healthy Trumbo is that it’s not like there are four guys for three positions and he just happens to be the fourth. There are basically seven guys for four positions and he’s sixth or seventh. He’s not going to play over Pujols. He’s not going to play over Hunter. He’s not going to play over Wells, at least early. He’s not going to play over Abreu/Morales against righties. And he might not play over Morales against lefties, either. Also, (I read ahead,) do we see Mike Trout this year? So it’s not great. Third base was a longshot to begin with, but weird foot thing + not trading Callaspo/Izturis makes that look not only unlikely but unhelpful. I wouldn’t bet on more than 250 plate appearances.

There are two reasons to own Trumbo anyway. One is that he could still stumble into 3B eligibility, along with 1B, RF, maybe LF, which is a useful combo. Two is that the Angels could trade him to someone who puts him near the middle of the order. Three is that he’s the world’s greatest hitter, which is why there are only two reasons.

2) This is sort of a part B on the first question.  Do we see Mike Trout this year?  If so, how many at-bats will he get?

I think he was going to start in Salt Lake even before Pujols signed. Scioscia was telegraphing that plan pretty clearly, if still leaving his options open. And Pujols pushes all the playing-time crunch onto the corner outfield spots, so now it’s even less likely he’ll start in Anaheim. Just a guess, but maybe he’s up in June or July and plays every day for whoever is injured or sucking. A lot of these playing time decisions will depend on whether Vernon Wells bounces back.

>>Glances down. Sees Question No. 4.<<

These questions are all out of order, Grey.

3) Okay, this is kinda part C on the first question.  Man, you’re getting off easy!  Does Kendrys Morales bounce back to what we saw before his limp-off home run or does he just bounce back and forth off the DL?

There’s a pretty long history of position players missing a year or more and coming back more or less good at baseball as they ever were. More or less. Ron Gant did it and Chipper Jones and Robin Ventura and even Rocco Baldelli before a bunch of new and unrelated injuries ruined him. Those injuries are all different than Morales’, so I’m not saying they work as perfect comps, or even imperfect comps for his health, but long stretches of inactivity don’t seem to erode skills. There’s obviously a limit to this theory, though, according to the motion picture Mr. 3000.

He truly is ahead of where he was at this point last year, so I’m a bit more sanguine, which is a word I love to use in my writing because I don’t know how to pronounce it. I think he’ll be healthy enough to play this year, and I think his pre-injury line in 2010 (.290/.346/.487) is a fine projection, perhaps adjusted down a tick to reflect a lower overall offensive environment.

4) This is not question 1D, but you can think of it like that if you like.  I see Vernon Wells as a bounce back candidate.  Do you agree or think I’m crazy like everyone else who reads that post I just linked to?

Wells is still strong and runs pretty well in the outfield and his isolated power numbers were reasonable.He just forgot how to hit, at all, and not just in a BABIP way — his line drive rate was the worst in the league, and he went from June 10 to July 16 without a walk. Still, I’d always bet on the guy who forgets how to hit before I’d bet on a guy who gets old and fat and broken down. Vernon Wells is not fat and he’s not physically broken down and he’s not all that old.

He’s also rebuilt his swing “from scratch.” Those offseason working-on-my-swing stories always seem encouraging, and it seemed encouraging to me when he said it. (He’s working with the Cubs’ Rudy Jaramillo, a guy smart people say nice things about.) But on the other hand, the tinkering phase is sometimes like the third or fourth step toward madness. So I don’t know if that’s good or bad, actually. It’s either good or bad. But every fantasy sleeper is going to be either good or bad. That’s why they’re fantasy sleepers instead of fantasy studs.

5) What would be the ultimate proof that the Angels supplanted the Dodgers as the favored SoCal team?
A) Rihanna and Alyssa Milano hanging around the clubhouse.
B) Arte’s wife files for divorce.
C) Fans show up in the 4th inning and leave in the 6th.
D) Tommy Lasorda opens up a pasta stand at Angels Stadium.
E) They change their name once again but this time to the On-Hels.
F) The Dodgers rename themselves the Anaheim Dodgers of Los Angeles.

G) Vin Scully starts calling their games.

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (14) | 2010 (24) | 2009 (21) | 2008 (10) | 2007 (30) | 2006 (24)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [80-81] NL East

AAA: [66-74] International League – Syracuse

AA: [80-62] Eastern League – Harrisburg

A+: [68-71] Carolina League – Potomac

A: [75-64] South Atlantic League – Hagerstown

A(ss): [45-30] New York-Penn League – Auburn

The Run Down

There would’ve been a few more guys to discuss here, had the Nationals not gutted their system in acquiring Gio Gonzalez.  Their top two pitching prospects (Brad Peacock & A.J. Cole) were shipped out along with top catching prospect, Kerek Norris, and big-league-ready LHP, Tom Milone.  Prior to the trade, Baseball America had this Nationals system ranked #1 overall.  GM Mike Rizzo drafted some high-ceiling types in Anthony Rendon and Matt Purke, and the organization still possesses baseball’s top prospect.  Regarding that top prospect:  he’s got the tools and makeup to be a perennial All Star, but his mustache could use some work.  It’s flat and whispy, but not pathetic enough to be making a comedic statement a la Derek Holland.  Harper needs to add significant volume to his 6^th tool in order to complete the package.  Perhaps Grey could lend some advice?

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions

Pat Lehman (RHP); Rafael Martin (RHP); Sammy Solis (LHP); Derek Norris (C); Bryce Harper (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Danny Espinosa (SS); Wilson Ramos (C); Yunesky Maya (RHP); Ryan Mattheus (RHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Bryce Harper | OF:

Grey previews Harper here.  And while I tend to agree with the guarded outlook, the Nationals have been adamant about not counting their prized prospect out of a Major League role when camp breaks.  Grey noted that this could simply be a ploy to stir fan interest, which seems plausible.  Lately, though, I’m wondering if the Nats are sincere about promoting Harper sooner rather than later.  This, of course, is a situation worth watching closely as it develops this spring.  My best guess:  Harper will be called up in June.

Chris Marrero | 1B:

Marrero collected 100+ AB’s as the Nationals’ primary first baseman this past September.  Unfortunately, the 23-year-old did not impress.  His 2011 Triple-A figures (.300/.375/.449), however, are his best to date.  Blocked by Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche, Marrero should return to AAA, but he’s right on the cusp of breaking through as another rather boring NL first baseman.

Steve Lombardozzi | 2B:

Lombardozzi is one of those scraptastic guys who you probably don’t want anywhere near your fantasy roster.  Not very toolsy, but oozing with baseball acumen.  You know the type.  He’ll likely make the Nats as a utility infielder, but shouldn’t see regular time unless Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond goes down to injury.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Anthony Rendon | 3B:

The sixth overall selection in the 2011 draft, Rendon signed late and is yet to make his pro debut.  He brings a polished approach to hitting and is discussed in the same light as Evan Longoria and David Wright.  Washington will be careful with him at first; a strained throwing shoulder hampered him in his final season at Rice.  Rendon has a Major League contract so he’ll be in camp with the big club this spring, but I expect him to make his pro debut in Potomac.  The Nats may have to consider shifting him to second base while Zimmerman holds down third.

Pitchers

Matt Purke | LHP – SP:

Purke signed too late to gain any professional experience last year, but he has the potential to climb quickly through the Washington farm system.  The lefty went 16-0 with Texas Christian in 2010, but didn’t pitch in 2011 due to a shoulder ailment.  The condition didn’t require surgery, and the Nationals feel they got a steal in drafting Purke in the third round last June.  Until he proves his health on the mound, it’s fair to be skeptical, but Purke is armed with a filthy fastball-slider combo, and projects as a frontline starter.

Cole Kimball | RHP – RP:

Kimball was off to a nice start to his Major League career before his season was cut short to injury.  In 12 appearances with the Nats, the righty posted a 1.93 ERA.  This was after Kimball put up a 0.00 ERA in 12 appearances as the closer in Syracuse.  Rotator-cuff surgery is cause for concern, but the Nationals hope to have Kimball back in their bullpen for the second half.

Sammy Solis | LHP – SP:

Solis projects as a mid-rotation, innings eating type.  His repertoire features a mid-90′s fastball with movement, a decent curve, and a work-in-progress changeup.  Solis posted a 2.72 ERA in 10 starts at High-A to round out his 2011. He’ll ride that momentum into Harrisburg for 2012 and could progress quickly from there, given his solid mechanics and fundamental approach.

1. Billy Butler – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Look at dem cans!”  (Butler had 11 games at 1st base so he might have eligibility for you there.)  To see Butler’s 2012 projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. David Ortiz – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “And now you’re hamstrung.”  By the tier name I mean this, Ortiz seems like the only Utility-only player that anyone considers drafting.  People draft Butler, but as a 1st baseman.  So when people draft Ortiz, they really are only getting a Utility-only player.  With no hope of getting a 1st baseman from games played during the season.  Now they have no flexibility.  If you have a guy in your Utility spot all year, you’re hamstrung.  BTW, isn’t it interesting how the word utility means something useful, but for fantasy it’s not?  I swear that sounded interesting in my head before I typed it.  Anyhoo!  2012 Projections:  75/27/90/.270

3. Johnny Damon – (Has 16 games in the outfield, so he might have eligibility there.)  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the post.  I call this tier, “You are a damn fool if you draft one of these guys.”  Actually, I can see a scenario where drafting one these guys makes sense.  You join a ten team league with you and nine other teams that are just you using different aliases.  I’d then draft Damon for one of the other teams that you’re sandbagging.  When you beat the nine alias sandbagging teams, the girls will be throwing themselves at your feet.  2012 Projections:  50/12/40/.265/12

4. Vladimir Guerrero – It’s definitely not the age of the DH, huh?  Somewhere Ron Blomberg is rolling over in his grave.  Assuming he’s dead.  If he’s not, looking at the current DHs will kill him.  I hope you’re happy, Vlad!  2012 Projections:  35/15/45/.270

5. Hideki Matsui – “Does he have outfield eligibility?  Does he have a current major league team that is going to play him?”  That could also be this tier’s name.  2012 Projections: crap/that/smells/nasty

His HR/FB rate last year was silly.  Silly as in too high.  Not too high as Cheech and Chong would’ve intended it.  His career HR/FB% (with the huge 2011) is 13.9.  Last year it was 20.9.  Not repeatable, unless Zoltar’s still taking wishes.  Last year his K-rate went up and his line drives fell.  That sounds like a recipe for disaster that the Barefoot Contessa would not be happy to serve Jeffrey. (BTW, the Barefoot Contessa is wildly attractive to me even though she’s not attractive at all.  Is that weird?  I feel like everyone should have one totally weird crush, right?  I’m jealous of Jeffrey.  I’d like to poach her fish!  Okay, I’m weird.)  Grandy’s BABIP wasn’t totally crazy, but he’s barely a .260 hitter without luck.  Okay, and he’s about to turn 31 years old.  He’s getting better?  Nope.  His steals and power are there to an extent, so I’m not totally down on him in the sexual way (not that there’s anything wrong with that).  He should be good for 27 to 32 homers and 15 to 20 steals.  But because of all the potential pitfalls, I wouldn’t go anywhere near him in the 2nd round as he’s being drafted.  Stamped:  Schmohawk!

1. Aroldis Chapman – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Adams.  I call this tier, “They might not have the best ratios, but they have the best ratios with the most vulture saves.”  Aroldis is being stretched out to start, but I don’t see how that happens without an injury to one of their starters.  Then again, Dusty is managing the Reds so no pitcher is safe, which could be a tagline for the movie made about the Dusty Baker biography, “Pitchers Ain’t Sh*t But Hos And Tricks.”  2012 Projections:  7-2/3.00/1.26/90, 22 Holds, 5 saves

2. Javy Guerra – As Aroldis might be in the rotation (doubtful), Guerra could be the closer.  I’m going on the assumption that the Dodgers make the right move in regards to their bullpen, but I’m not sure who received “common sense” in the divorce proceedings.  2012 Projections:  2-3/3.50/1.25/55, 20 Holds, 12 saves

3. Jon Rauch – I have him down for ten saves because he has closing experience (though none of it terrific) and Frank Francisco is just passable.  Honestly, a lot of guys below him are more valuable than him.  That’s not a tall crack either.  2012 Projections:  4-5/3.55/1.30/40, 20 Holds, 10 saves

4. Tyler Clippard – Nats have a solid staff, one of the best set-up men in baseball and a good offense.  In twelve-after-twenty, the Nats lost their innocence and their suckitude.  Now all praise to Jim Bowden for not being there anymore!  2012 Projections:  5-3/2.65/1.15/90, 20 Holds, 5 saves

5. Mark Melancon – Okay, besides Venters and Clippard this entire tier could be below the next tier if you’re not looking for saves.  For ungstance (which is how I say instance), David Robertson is soooooooooo (yeah, 10 oh’s) much better than Melancon if you just want ratio help.  Robertson probably won’t sniff a save though, unless Mo farts and explodes his colon and Soriano is a casualty.  2012 Projections:  6-2/3.25/1.25/65, 22 Holds, 5 saves

6. Jonny Venters – My projections for Venters might be on the low side.  He was fantabulous last year.  He also pitched in every game and then threw on the side five times a game then was taken to a carnival by Fredi Gonzalez to throw at the speed gun stand to try and win him a SpongeBob.  2012 Projections:  7-2/2.75/1.15/70, 24 Holds, 3 saves

7. Francisco Rodriguez – He’s getting paid something like $18 million to set up one of the best closers in the game, so he might just take a siesta for the better part of the season.  Or maybe the Polish Kielbasa from the sausage race will kidnap him to free up some salary money.  2012 Projections:  6-4/2.75/1.26/80, 18 Holds, 3 saves

8. Mike Adams – I thought hard about moving Adams up because of my distrust of Nathan’s stuff, not just his lips and ass.  The problem is the Rangers are stacked with potential Nathan replacements.  Good for them, not so good on speculating for vulture saves.  2012 Projections:  5-1/2.70/1.05/70, 24 Holds, 3 saves

9. David Robertson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the post.  I call this tier, “Best Holds guys coupled with maybe a chance for some saves, though that’s less likely.”  Wow, Robertson’s numbers were insane last year.  A 13.50 K/9 and a 1.08 ERA.  Seriously, I looked at two different sites because I didn’t believe them at first.  His walks are such a mess that if he loses a K or two off his K/9, then the walks might catch up to him.  Know what happens when walks increase?  Runs.  It’s yours, Highlights!  2012 Projections:  3-1/2.70/1.22/90, 30 Holds

10. Sergio Romo – Another guy who had insane K numbers, only Romo’s weren’t coupled with any walks.  Like, none.  His season seemed like it was above his head, so I imagine his stats will come down a little.  Also, I will never use the word coupled again.  Sorry about that.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.45/0.95/60, 28 Holds

11. Greg Holland – Speaking of a lot of Ks, Funky Cold Me-Holy-Crap Greg Holland was great last year.  I think fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) are gonna want to own Greg Holland more this year than Derek Holland.  Or not!  The future is a fickle mistress that blackmails you with pictures of your balls.  2012 Projections:  3-2/2.60/1.06/70, 28 Holds

12. Sean Marshall – He worries me a bit, though his recent numbers tell me he’s nothing to worry about.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Dusty uses him as a situational guy a lot more than he’s been doing recently, especially if Aroldis stays in the bullpen, which I think he does, and this is a long sentence, but still 40 words short of the world’s longest sentence; damn, that’s really long; I’m not even sure I can get there when I’m trying, which I’m not right now, otherwise I’d be disqualified from Guinness; I think; I’m not sure, actually.  2012 Projections:  4-2/3.00/1.15/70, 30 Holds

13. Joaquin Benoit – He has a good team for Holds, a closer in front of him that should keep him in the set-up role and a cool name.  Six of one, half dozen of another and sixteen more gives you 28 Holds.  2012 Projections:  6-2/3.00/1.04/60, 28 Holds

14. Vinnie Pestano – Vinnie invented swag, poppin’ bottles, making batters look like scabs.  Proof, I guess Vinnie got his swagger back, truth.  New watch alert; he throws.  Like the big ‘stache, Rollie; Vinnie got Ks like all of those.  Arm out the window through the city, he doesn’t throw slow.  Cock back, snap back, every hitter’s swing now has holes.  2012 Projections:  1-3/2.75/1.09/80, 25 Holds

15. Koji Uehara – There was talk of him moving to a new club.  Again.  I’m sure wherever he ends up he’ll get his Ks, Holds and Korean-fusion tacos.  2012 Projections:  2-2/2.85/1.00/70, 22 Holds

16. Antonio Bastardo – When Ryan Madson left Philly, he told Charlie Manuel you won’t have this bastard to kick around anymore.  Then him and Antonio had words.  Bastardo was almost ranked much higher, but I settled here because Papelbon should be fine and Antonio walks a crapton.  2012 Projections:  5-3/3.25/1.20/70, 25 Holds

17. Eric O’Flaherty – Top o’ the morning to you!  O’Flaherty had a huge number of Holds last year, but I think Fredi Gonzalez is the new Torre, chewing up and spitting out middle men.  The Braves should bring in Scott Proctor to be their pitching coach.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.50/1.15/65, 25 Holds

18. Jose Veras – His walks are slightly egregious, but they used to be wholly egregious so we’re moving in the right direction.  He is Charlie Sheen in Major League sans the interesting haircut and hookers in the honeywagon, a name Sheen took quite literally.  2012 Projections:  1-3/3.75/1.28/80, 20 Holds

19. Michael Dunn – Another guy who’s trying to do his best Wild Thing impersonation.  Stay away if you’re trying for ratio help.  More of a Ks, Holds possibility.  2012 Projections:  3-1/3.70/1.32/75, 20 Holds

20. Joel Zumaya – There’s some guys that should be above Zumaya — Chris Resop, Grant Balfour, Ernesto Frieri, Jeff Samardzija, to name a few.  I’m more putting Zumaya’s name here to give people a head’s up that he’s coming back and he’s in a place where the closer had Twins fans thinking they were clever every time they’d say, “Oh, Crapps.”  2012 Projections:  Probably nothing, but it’s a deep league flyer.

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Drew Storen (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
4. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
5. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Jose Valverde (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
7. Brian Wilson (Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla)
8. J.J. Putz (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
9. Heath Bell (Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo, Mike Dunn)
10. Carlos Marmol (Kerry Wood, Jeff Samardzija)
11. Joakim Soria (Jonathon Broxton, Greg Holland)
12. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek)
13. Ryan Madson (Sean Marshall, Nick Masset)
14. Kenley Jansen (Javy Guerra, Todd Coffey)
15. Jason Motte (Eduardo Sanchez)
16. Huston Street (Luke Gregerson)
17. Andrew Bailey (Mark Melancon, Bobby Jenks)
18. Sergio Santos (Francisco Cordero)
19. Jordan Walden (Scott Downs, LaTroy Hawkins)
20. Kyle Farnsworth (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Chris Perez– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. Frank Francisco (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
22. Rafael Betancourt (Rex Brothers)
23. Matt Thornton (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed)
24. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
25. Brandon League (Shawn Kelley, Hong-Chih Kuo)
26. Chris Perez (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
27. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
28. Matt Capps (Joel Zumaya, Glen Perkins)
29. Brian Fuentes (Grant Balfour, Joey Devine)
30. Juan Abreu (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Fernando Rodriguez, The Ghost of Ed Wade’s Toupee)

1. Craig Kimbrel – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Storen.  I call this tier, “Young, dumb and full of speed gun.”  To illustrate further why you shouldn’t draft a top guy, the top three closers when rankings came out last year were Carlos Marmol, Neftali and Soria.  I wasn’t bonkers with a side of delusional when I put those three at the top.  It just shows you the fickliosity (Made Up Word of the Day!) of the closers.  The good news is the guys I told you to target later are now on the top of the rankings.  Sure, I’d love to get Kimbrel.  Like I’m Samuel Gerard.  Just don’t think it’s happening.  2012 Projections:  5-2/2.20/1.08/110, 40 saves

2. John Axford – I love the fact that he accepted K-Rod coming to the Brewers, took a dump in his locker* and kept on saving games.  (*Unsubstantiated claim that K-Rod assumed was his father-in-law.  K-Rod and his father-in-law are now thick as thieves and have decided to settle all arguments with a round of laser tag.)  2012 Projections:  5-1/2.40/1.16/90, 38 saves

3. Drew Storen – You want a donkeycorn?!  You can’t handle a donkeycorn!  Cause they’re wild, bucking animals.  You should get a lamb.  They’re peaceful.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.50/1.04/75, 38 saves

4. Mariano Rivera – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Putz.  I call this tier, “Not young, not dumb, but will get the job done.”  These guys are not flashy names anymore.  Well, maybe Mo a little, but for the most part there’s no shine on these guys.  Whatever, you just want saves.  Stop being so greedy.  2012 Projections:  2-3/2.40/0.95/55, 40 saves

5. Jonathon Papelbon – Whatever junk Papelbon was smoking in 2010 when his ERA was 3.90, he stopped smoking it in 2011 when his K-rate was 12+ and his ERA was 2.94.  Or maybe he wasn’t smoking in 2010 and was smoking in 2011.  Or maybe he wasn’t smoking either year, but standing near Terry Francona when he was smoking.  Either way, Papelbon now faces the NL and not the Yankees for 18 games a year, 17 of which are televised.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.65/1.00/80, 37 saves

6. Jose Valverde – Everyone is picking the Tigers for the World Series, so naturally Valverde is going to be five kinds of wonderful with a side of “This is better than sex!”  Then again, the Cards and Rangers’ closers weren’t so good last year, so, yeah, it makes little difference.  Not to say I don’t like Valverde, just putting shizz into perspective.  2012 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.22/65, 35 saves

7. Brian Wilson – He had a bit of a junky season last year.  Yet, he still had 36 saves and a 3.11 ERA.  You could’ve done worse *cough* Soria *cough* 2012 Projections:  5-3/2.90/1.32/70, 35 saves

8. J.J. Putz – I struggled with whether to put Putz (almost stutterer!) in the next tier of guys that I’m wary of or if I should say he’ll be fine in this tier.  After battling with myself over this Putz for about fifteen minutes, I worried I might go blind and just ranked him here.  He is a bit of a one man MASH unit, which makes sense since his full name is Jamie Jfarr Putz.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 32 saves

9. Heath Bell -  This is a new tier.  This tier goes to Hanrahan.  I call this tier, “High ranked closers that I’m a bit wary of.  Not enough to kick out of bed, but enough to wonder why I’m in bed with them.”  The factory underneath Petco that produces middle men that become all-world closers released a report after Bell signed with Miami.  “Miami has a team?  Oh, Florida!  We’re sorry to see Heath Bell leave our organization.  He was a valued member of our bullpen.  But, really, anyone can close games in Petco.  Have you seen our fences?  Trick question.  You haven’t seen the fences because they’re three miles from home plate.  Good luck in Miami!”  2012 Projections:  4-3/3.25/1.18/50, 37 saves

10. Carlos Marmol – I usually tell you to ignore potential trades and that other foolishness, but Epstein is dead set on shaking up the Cubs and putting his stamp on the club, so I could see Marmol setting things up for a playoff contender by mid-summer.  I know if I was headed to the playoffs I’d love to have Marmol in the 8th inning.  2012 Projections:  5-3/3.50/1.35/100, 25 saves

11. Joakim Soria -  Could totally bounce back, but why am I risking it if he doesn’t?  There’s no other closers?  Of course there is.  If I can avoid risk with a fairly high ranked closer, I am.  2012 Projections:  3-2/3.35/1.25/65, 35 saves

12. Joel Hanrahan – Hanrahananananan is a bit of wild card.  I think he can save 40 games again with a 9 K/9 and a sub-2 ERA or he can save 25 games and a high-3 ERA.  Plus, drafting him is a bit like OD’ing on tryptophananananananan.  Snooooooooze.  (BTW, after this blurb, my spellchecker quit on me.  Just got up and walked out of the room.)  2012 Projections:  2-4/3.35/1.20/65, 34 saves

13. Ryan Madson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Street.  I call this tier, “I’ll probably own these guys on multiple teams; this tier name doesn’t rhyme and isn’t pithy.” You want guys that can become the top four for (stutterer!) next year.  Here’s your tier, snitches!  Assuming Madson doesn’t stumble for any extended period of time, he’ll be more valuable than this ranking.  The only big issue is Dusty waking up with his toothpick on the wrong side of his mouth and deciding Madson’s no longer his closer.  2012 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.22/60, 32 saves

14. Kenley Jansen – I have a bit of a soft spot for high upside mid-tier closers.  Or is that a hard spot?  It’s why I ended up with Kimbrel and Axford on multiple teams last year and will be eying Jansen this year.  As of right now, he’s not officially the closer, but I think it happens.  If you want him, you’re gonna have to draft him around here.  I say do it.  2012 Projections:  1-3/2.25/1.00/85, 25 saves

15. Jason Motte – I’m hoping with La Russa’s Feathered Hair moving on to grayer pastures that the Cards bullpen will be a lot more stable.  If I had Madson, Jansen and Motte on every team as my only closers, I’d be so happy I’d cancel all future shrink appointments, except the ones on Tuesday because I stepped on a sidewalk crack last week.  2012 Projections:  3-4/2.50/1.10/65, 27 saves

16. Huston Street – If you hold what I said about Heath Bell in the mirror, that’s what I have to say about Street and why I like him this year.  Of course, he can’t stay healthy without the help of magical potion or whatever it was that Ryan Braun took.  2012 Projections:  2-4/3.00/1.10/50, 30 saves

17. Andrew Bailey – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Thornton.  I call this tier, “Closers that I’m probably going to miss out on, but SAGNOF tells us saves are saves are saves so I could draft one of these guys.”  A few things separate Huston Street from Andrew Bailey.  1.) Tougher home park.  2.) Tougher league. 3.) There’s no 3.  4.) Bailey’s going much higher in drafts than Street.  2012 Projections:  3-1/3.30/1.10/50, 34 saves

18. Sergio Santos – If someone said they were a time traveler and they just returned from 2013 and Santos is now the top closer, I wouldn’t be surprised though I would wonder why they used their time traveling ability for something so trivial.  My problem with Santos is his walks and he has a capable closer behind him.  A few screw ups and he’s out.  I did flip-flop on Santos since the last time I wrote about him.  A girl and Grey have a right to change their mind.  I do know what I was thinking with that post.  Ks, Ks, Ks… And more Ks.  Now, I’m getting cold feet.  Stupid poor circulation!  2012 Projections:  3-5/3.70/1.24/80, 25 saves

19. Rafael Betancourt – Maybe once and for all he can shake the Cuddle Boy label.  Maybe I don’t want to risk it on my team to find out.  Fairly wellesley, Dame Betancourt!  2012 Projections:  4-2/3.50/1.10/65, 25 saves

20. Matt Thornton – He’s 35 years old and he has 20 career saves.  By season end, Hawk says about Thornton, “He gone!” and the White Sox try out Addison Reed or Jesse Crain.  2012 Projections:  5-4/3.75/1.22/65, 20 saves

After the top 20 closers, there’s a lot of names you should draft and I’ll go over all of them.  Here’s three that stand out:

Chris Perez – Coming off a season with a 5.88 K/9 and a 3.92 BB/9.  That’s the new blech.  Again, I would take any closer that had a job, but don’t let Perez’s 36 saves last year cause you to overpay.  2012 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/45, 25 saves

Joe Nathan – When he went to the Rangers, I wrote my Joe Nathan fantasy.  If you hold it up to a mirror, it’s very difficult to read.  2012 Projections:  3-4/3.75/1.18/45, 30 saves

Juan Abreu -  Who?  Did I mean to type Joan Abreu, Bobby’s loving Momsie?  I think I might’ve.  And I think Bobby’s Momsie is the favorite to get saves in Houston.  Whatever!  SAGNOF!  If someone’s getting saves, draft them!  2012 Projections:  1-4/2.70/1.28/70, 20 saves

1) I have Evan Longoria as my preseason 2012 MVP pick.  This is the year, friend.  According to me.  Live with me for a second (not literally) and give me your most optimistic line for Longoria.

Ignore the easy route and looking at his insanely low BABIP last year and look at the narrative. He strained his oblique in Game 2 of the season and missed 26 games because of it. He came back only to develop a nerve issue in his big toe on his right foot that did not allow him to properly get into baseballs like good hitters want to do. He didn’t get to 100% until somewhere around mid-June, right about the same time Matt Joyce cooled off from his rocket-fueled streak in May. Now, let’s get back to that BABIP. His plate appearance and batted ball results were nearly identical to what they were in 2010: K%, BB%, pitches per plate appearance, G/L/F splits, swing rates, etc. Yet, his BABIP fell 97 points and was only over .225 in three of the five months in which he played last season. What quietly flew under the radar during his monster close to the season was that he walked more than he struck out from August 1st throughout the rest of the season and did so without sacrificing any power as he had 26 extra base hits in just 244 plate appearances. .285 with 220 R+RBI, 40 HR, & 10 SB is not crazy to predict.

2)  Desmond Jennings and I had a baby.  It was under-reported that’s why you didn’t hear it.  Okay, so I basically love all Rays (except Hellickson, we’ll get to him).  You’re a fantasy guy yourself, so you know how much the fantasy community loves Desmond Jennings.  Will we be disappointed or will he be a 2nd round pick in 2013?

I guess he took that maternity leave for most of September then. As awesome as he was in August, major league pitchers quickly found the holes in his swing in September and he proved time and time again he couldn’t lay off that high fastball and then got him making bad contact while protecting the plate after that. Dive into small sample size hell with me for a second and revisit the 17 games Jennings had after his 2 home run performance in Toronto. He hit .174/.278/.246 after that  with just two extra base hits as pitchers gave him a steady diet of those high fastballs until he finally started laying off them toward the end of the season. Durability is always a concern with him as he has only had one blemish-free professional season. I’ve seen him go in the top 50 in some drafts but that’s a risky move – not because of the talent but because of the durability issues.

3) Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 was a mess outside of ERA.  This year his ERA catches up to his other peripherals.  True, false or I shall explain.

False. The “norm” is different in Tampa Bay. Joe Maddon employs more defensive shifts than any other manager in baseball and it is no mistake that the Rays pitching staff has had the lowest team BABIP each of the past four seasons. Sure, Longoria and Zobrist are elite defenders, but Jason Bartlett was no gem during his run here and Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman aren’t terribly rangy side to side. Positioning is everything so a .223 BABIP against a team BABIP of .280 looks a bit better. Shields’ disastrous 2010 season is the only Rays’ starting pitcher to have a BABIP over .285 during that run as well. Hellickson is flyball heavy, but 25% of his flyballs in play never leave the infield as he induces a lot of bad contact. Also understand that his K/9 was problematic because he had John Jaso “catching” him often. Jaso is to catching what Rex Grossman is to quarterbacking. Hellickson had the lowest called strike three rate in baseball last season and thanks to the work of now Houston Astros front office guru Mike Fast, we know that Jose Molina is the best framing catcher in baseball. It is pretty easy to envision a caddy situation here as Hellickson is also susceptible to basestealers in that he isn’t quick to home plate. Molina’s framing and throwing were an early Christmas present for the young kid out of Iowa.

4) How many innings do we see from Matt Moore this year?  Does he break camp with the team?  I’ve already dropped my Matt Moore fantasy.  Now yours please.

The Rays like to keep increases from season to season at 20%, but it’s with pitch counts, not innings pitched. As long as Moore isn’t turning in Scott Kazmir 2009 specials early in the season, I see no reason why he would be under any kind of restriction in September unless the team is not contending. Then again, after what happened in 2011, the Rays would probably need to be 14 games out for the front office to throw in the white flag. We are 20 days from pitchers and catchers reporting and the Rays still have six starting pitchers. Seven when you factor in the strong likelihood of Alex Cobb going to extended spring training and eight if you consider Alex Torres could pitch in the back end of most rotations in baseball right now. Putting Davis and/or Niemann in the bullpen does nothing to help their trade value, and the bullpen is already a bit crowded with guaranteed spots for Farnsworth, Peralta, Rodney, Howell, and likely McGee. Moore is already under contract so the typical model of the team sending him down past the Super Two deadline is out of the way and if the team did send him down, the fans (insert joke here) would boo louder than they boo a B.J. Upton strikeout looking. The run support should be there this year, much like Hellickson enjoyed last season so if he is up for the full season as a starter, 12+ wins, 180+ K’s is expected, not hoped for.

5) Do Tampa Bay Ray fans live in fear of the day that Andrew Friedman finds out that Jews aren’t supposed to live in Tampa until they collect Social Security?

There’s a rumor that Friedman has part ownership in the team which is why he has turned down lucrative jobs elsewhere. That tells us he is hoping to turn a profit when the team is eventually relocated to a more appreciative market so he can cash in his chips just in time to re-enter a recovering Wall Street market and make more millions to buy his own Island. As long as Gerry Hunsicker is still in the organization, the thought of Friedman leaving is easier to digest. Losing Dan Feinstein to Oakland was a tough talent bleed for the front office but adding former fantasy guru and now scout extraordinaire Jason Grey to the front office was a nice trade-off. Besides, with Jason Grey out of the way, maybe I can finally finish in the top 3 in AL Tout Wars.