Billy Wagner – Stop three on the NL East Tour pulls into Atlanta.  Right on his heels, Takashi Saito was signed by the Braves, too.  Wagner will be the closer with Saito being the first pickup all Wagner’s owners make in April.  Wagner will be in the bottom of the donkey-corns to start the season and should be underrated on draft day.  He’s no guarantee to stay healthy but saves are saves are saves.

Placido Polanco – Crapolanco could play in a gravitational acceleration chamber that mimics the moon and he’d go 8/8 while batting .300.  What a waste of that great hitter’s park.  It’s like sous vide-ing a wet sock.

Are you wearing your aluminum foil hat for better TV reception?  Yes, he can help you.  That’s what I’m saying.  Flip off your lid for a second, would ya?  As I said with other fantasy baseball rookie catcher posts, Posey is not as exciting at any other position in 2010, but he’s a catcher so yay.  He’s exactly the kind of guy you should take a flier on late for your catcher spot in 12 team leagues and deeper.  Let’s just hope he doesn’t get as hyped in the preseason as Wieters did in 2009.  If you have to draft Posey too high, he’s going to lose all value.  In 2010, I’d put Posey’s projections at 55/14/65/.290/3.  Of course, if Posey doesn’t make the club out of Spring Training for some crazy, unforeseen reason, then you don’t draft him.  Cool?  Cool.

Record of Major and Minor League Teams

The Run Down

The Twins traded one of the better young defensive center fielders in Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy.  For  analysis from a Twins fan’s perspective, check out what Eric from The Blog that Boredom Built had to say. On a different note, Minnesota still has to figure out what it wants to do with third base, the middle or top of their rotation, second base, and how to reshuffle their bullpen – in that order. As a Minnesota native, I am able to read the local sports writers. Aside from Joe Christiansen and LaVelle E. Neal III, the writers are mentioning how the Twins have Danny Valencia as the heir apparent at third base – a 24 year old minor league player who just reached Triple-A this past summer and hasn’t played a lick in the majors. Never mind the fact that Valencia isn’t a stud prospect, either. Additionally, the Twins don’t have any internal options to fill out the rotation. Kevin Slowey is returning from a wrist injury and they just offered arbitration to Carl Pavano. However, if there is an injury again next year, the unexpected pitching the Twins got from Brian Duensing shouldn’t be counted upon.  The Twins and Bill Smith have a lot to work this winter, like signing Mauer to a contract that rivals Singapore’s GDP.

Graduated Prospects
#4 – (RP) Jose Mijares; #11 – (SP) Jeff Manship; #16 – (SP) Brian Duensing; (RP) Bobby Keppel;

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Pitchers – Alex Burnett, Steve Hirschfeld, (#27)Mike McCardell, Spencer Steedley
Hitters – Christ Parmelee, Steve Singleton, Rene Tosoni

Players of Interest
Hitters
#2 –Ben Revere | CF | 21 | A+ | .311/.372/.369 | 466 AB | 13 2B | 2 HR | .058 ISO | 45/17 SB/CS | 34:40 K:BB | .333 BABIP | 54.7 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 28.5 FB%
Scouting the Unknown broke him down well in July. The power, or gap power, never materialized after a significantly better 2008 slash line of .379/.433/.497. He still stole 45 bases after he stole 44 in 2008. His average isn’t a mirage; he should be able to sustain it. Revere is considered the fastest baserunner and best hitter for average in the Twins farm system. He’ll start 2010 in Double-A and will probably end the year with a September call-up, especially if the Twins falter down the stretch.

#5 – Danny Valencia | 3B | 24 | AA/AAA | .285/.337/.466 | 487 AB | 38 2B | 14 HR | .181 ISO | 77:39 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 50.5 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 35.1 FB%
Maybe the second coming of Ron Coomer. Only thing, Coomer didn’t produce at the majors until his late twenties. Honestly, he’ll be much better than Coomer, probably something more like a poor man’s Robin Ventura (a .267/.362/.444 career hitter in the majors) without the amazing defense. If, and that’s a big if, Valencia gets the starting gig out of spring training, his big league numbers will look, at best, what Bill James has predicted (12 HRs, .276 average in 438 ABs). He does have average to above-average defense with a strong arm. Look for him to emerge from the minor leagues around June and contribute a fantasy line of 50/10/60/.270 in 425 AB.

#28 – David Winfree | RF | 23 | AAA | .273/.317/.460 | 422 AB | 31 2B | 14 HR | .187 ISO | 88:28 K:BB | .316 BABIP | 38.9 GB% | 19.2 LD% | 41.9 FB%
He could be a sneaky sleeper in 2010 if there are any injuries in the Twins outfield. Typically he hits mid to upper teens in homers. Striking out has been a forte of his in the past, and was again this year. However, he plays good defense in right field and has a strong arm to boot. He’ll never hit for high average, but a little Matt Joyce-like production could be in his future.

Pitchers
#20 – Deolis Guerra | SP (RH) | 20 | A+/AA | 6.4 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 149 IP | 4.89 ERA (FIP ~3.75) | 1.34 WHIP | .320 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 17.3 LD% | 34.6 FB%
The most promising player acquired in the now infamous Johan Santana trade. His change-up is a plus pitch. However, his 2008 season was pretty much a waste as he wasn’t the same pitcher he was in 2007 with the Mets. This year he was back to his old self. He threw 62 2/3 innings at Double-A and his total was in line with the Verducci rule. I would imagine he’d make it to Triple-A in 2010 since his numbers improved from High-A to Double-A. Also, note that his FIP at Double-A was 3.52 compared to his ERA which sat at 5.17. Another plus, he did an acceptable job keeping the ball on the ground (45.7 GB%).

#19 – David Bromberg | SP (RH) | 21 | A+ | 8.7 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 153 1/3 IP | 2.70 ERA (3.28 FIP) | 1.23 WHIP | .295 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 17.6 LD% | 37.3 FB %
He has an 88 to 92 MPH fastball that can reach 95 MPH, a shape curve and a solid change-up. He won’t be near the majors next year. He has pitched over 150 inning two years in a row, and has the makings to be a solid innings eater.

Honorable Mentions
#1 – Aaron Hicks | CF | 20 | A | .251/.353/.382 | 251 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | .131 ISO | 10/8 SB/CS | 55:40 K:BB | .307 BABIP | 45.3 GB% | 20.9 LD% | 33.8 FB%
The first pick in the 2008 draft for the Twins had a much better 2008 season than 2009. This year was pretty abysmal. The strikeout to walk ratio is nice, as is the line-drive rate. However, he may have to start in Single-A again next year, slowing down the extremely fast pace that was assumed he was going to make.

#14 – Chris Parmelee | 1B | 21 | A+ | .258/.359/.441 | 27 2B | 16 HR | .183 ISO | 109:65 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 35.8 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 48.3 FB%
I swear I’ve been hearing about this guy for years. Actually I have! He was drafted in 2006 and ever since then he has been the heir apparent for Morneau. Alas, this was his first year above Single-A. He continuously has a low average with mid-teen home runs.

#18 – Rene Tosoni | OF | 22 | AA | .271/.360/.454 | 425 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .183 ISO | 8/8 SB/CS | 98:45 K:BB | .321 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 39.8 FB%
He earned the MVP award in the Futures Game (Minor League All-Star game) this year. Baseball America says that he has a solid, yet short, swing that projects to hit for better average than he has so far in his career. His defense is above-average and has a good arm. Seems like a good fourth outfielder.

Alex Burnett | RP (RH) | 21 | A+/AA | 9 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 78 IP | 1.85 ERA | .974 WHIP | .255 BABIP | 41.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 41.7 FB%
He would have been in the “Players of Interests” section if he wasn’t a reliever. He pitched the majority of his innings (55) at Double-A. The extremely low batting average on balls in play definitely improved his “old-timer’s” stat line.

#9 – Carlos Gutierrez | SP (RH) | 22 | AA | 5.5 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 52 1/3 IP | 6.19 ERA (5.02 FIP) | 1.64 WHIP | .326 BABIP
2009 second pick in first round failed to live up to his hype. He still has a lot of talent and has the “best fastball in the Twins minor league farm” according to the Baseball America.

Maybe, but not at first is my short answer.  Along with Mike Stanton’s mom, I like Mike Stanton better.  Morrison did work in A and High A in 2007 and ‘08, respectively.  Only pseudo-red flag was his homers dropped a bit from ‘07 to ‘08, but his doubles almost, you guessed it, doubled.  Resulting in him winning MVP honors.  In 2009, a fracture in his wrist knocked him out for about 2 months.  He still managed an OBP of .411, and five homers in the month of July, which is a nice sign the wrist injury isn’t lingering.  Morrison is still only 22 so the Marlins will probably hold off on bringing up, but if they do (remember, like that pony-tailed guy standing in front of your student union, the Marlins promote aggressively), then he will definitely be someone to look at.  Though all I expect in 2010 is 30/7/45/.265/3 and a mid-season call up.  Not worth it in mixed leagues, but definitely someone to look at in NL-Only and keeper leagues.

Since we’re friends, I’m going to tell you that I’m on the fence with how much I want to push Ian Desmond on you, loyal Razzball reader. On one hand, he can be FraGuish.  On the other hand, how much ‘ish is he?  Is he 97% FraGuish?  Is he 55% FraGuish?  So much anGuish!  Then when I look at the numbers a different way, I think he might be more FeLopezian.  So let’s see what we know.  His stealing percentages in the minors were dreadful at times.  In Double-A in 2008, he stole 12 bases and was caught 8 times.  In 2009, 13 for 17 in Double-A then 8 for 9 in Triple-A.  When he reached the Nats, he stole one base in 21 games and the Nats don’t steal that much. So I think Desmond has 25-plus steal speed, but may only steal 15 bases.  Now for the power.  In his first major league game, he hit a 434 foot bomb. Though its true distance is less. (Still not clear on what true distance is.  I like to think it’s measured in unicorns because that would ironic.  BTW, if you wanna lose three hours of your life, play around with this site.) So Desmond can generate power, but he’s not a really a power hitter.  Ten homers seems like a lot to ask of him, but he could get to 15.  Hmm… That brings me back to FraGuish.  So I guess we’ll settle on 10/20 for Desmond with the hope of more and the fear of less.  Though, because the shortstop position is so shallow, 10/20 is a great sleeper for 2010 fantasy baseball and definitely someone to look at late in drafts.

1. Ryan Braun has herpes? – If he open mouth kissed Jose Lima.
2. How did baseball in the 1960’s change lives? – The 1960s were a decade that opened with hope and optimism with the election of John F. Kennedy.  Following his assassination and our eventual involvement in the Vietnam Conflict, the decade quickly turned tumultuous.  Baseball, scotch, smoking cigarettes and adultery were all we had left.  This is according to Mad Men.
3. A-Rod nickname? – Um, A-Rod? Also, acceptable answers are A-Fraud, A-Roid and The Uncharismatic Latino.
4. Need Funny Fantasy Baseball Team Names – Aw, this search sounds desperate.  You can try our fantasy baseball team name generator.
5. Should you call a scout if you can throw 95 MPH? – How’s your breaking stuff? (BTW, I imagine the person who did this search is one of those guys who spends like $140 bucks at the local carnival trying to win an over-sized SpongeBob.  *donning bad Jersey accent* Don’t worry, Tina, I’ll get you that motherf**ckin’ SpongeBob!)
6. A no k pitcher suffers from Scharmandofreude! – I like that.
7. Rod Stewart Bonifacio – Had one big hit, “Some Guys Have All the Luck to be Playing Professional Baseball.”
8. What’s the hardest someone’s been pitchslapped? – Robin Ventura by Nolan Ryan… Oh!  Pitchslapped.  Yeah, I don’t know.  Probably involved Micah Owings.
9. Blyleven farts – That would be a Dutch oven.
10. Mutton Twinkie? – Thanks, but I’m more of a Liverwurst Whoopie Pie man.
11. Cracker Barrel cheese logs on Steve Balboni Blvd. – Yes, it’s a magical place.  There’s cheese logs and bricks of Spam.  All spackled together with mayonnaise.
12. Why didn’t Mickey Rourke and Kim Basinger hook up after 9 1/2 Weeks? – They ran out of fruit.
13. Can Josh Hamilton have Rum Raisin ice cream? – Most store brand Rum Raisin ice creams have rum flavoring, but no actual rum.  But he has to eat his dinner first.
14. Andre Ethier candid shots – Here he is out in Key West.
15. If ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we’d all have to wear diapers – Can’t argue with that.
16. Jonesing for poetry by Brett Myers – Ok, fine.  I call this, “Brett Myers Goes Wildin.”  I don’t use Pomade on my hair like Chase… Bank’s got my money and my honey’s got mace… Just, um, in case.
17. Poor Man’s Mark Grace? – James Loney… A poor man’s James Loney is Casey Kotchman.  A poor man’s Casey Kotchman is someone in the minors.
18. Nick Lowe is a white haired old bastard? – No, he’s Peter Gammons Peter Gammons Peter Gammons.
19. Bad year to be a Johnson or Wang – With Chien-Ming Wang, Reed and Randy Johnson hurting and Kelly Johnson losing playing time to Martin Prado, it’s true.  Wasn’t a great year for Wood either.
20. Why do my eyes feel heavy when I read Razzball? – That’s the tryptophan, silly.  It’s Thanksgiving!  Have a good one.

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [95 – 67] NL West – best record in NL
AAA: [80 – 64] Pacific Coast League
AA: [ 65 – 74] Southern League
A+: [59 – 81] California League
A: [81 – 59] Midwest League
R: [24 – 32] Arizona League
R: [42 – 34] Pioneer League

The Run Down

After several years in the top 10, the Dodgers farm ranking fell significantly due to several trades (Manny Ramirez, Ronnie Belliard) and a significant lack of a promising young prospect. In the past, the Dodgers were able to recovery from poor trades (Joel Guzman traded for Julio Lugo) because of a deep pool of talent. With the graduations of Kershaw, Billingsley, Kemp, Ethier, Loney and Russell Martin, the Dodgers farm isn’t quite as bountiful this year. However, they still have a few young power arms that are moving their way through the minors. When the Dodgers acquired George Sherrill for third baseman Josh Bell and pitcher Steve Johnson the Dodgers lost their top third base prospect and a mid-level pitcher who had a fine year. The Dodgers have a couple of top prospects that are nearing the majors, number one ranked Andrew Lambo (Double-A) and fourth ranked Josh Lindblom (Double and Triple-A).

Graduated Prospects
#2 – (P) James McDonald; #5 – (P) Scott Elbert #12 – (RP) Ramon Troncoso; (RP) Ronald Belisario

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Javy Guerra, Eric Krebs, Aaron Miller, Travis Schlichting (received September call-up)
Hitters – (C) Lucas May, (C) Jessi Meir, (1B) Russ Mitchell (won AFL Sportsmanship Award), (SS/2B) Justin Setters, (LF) Andrew Lambo, (CF) Trayvon Robinson

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Andrew Lambo | LF | AA | 20 | .256/.311/.407 | 492 AB | 39 2B | 11 HR | .151 ISO | 95:35 K:BB | .298 BABIP
Scouting the Unknown article in September laid him out pretty well. He slashed .330/.365/.484 in the AFL this fall. Overall, it was a pretty underwhelming season for the Dodgers top prospect. Though keep his age in context; he was a couple of years younger than his competition. However, a September call-up looks like the best case scenario for 2010. He should report back to Double-A in 2010 with a potential promotion to Triple-A in mid-June.

#7 – Devaris Gordon | SS | A | 21 | .301/.362/.394 | 538 AB | 17 2B | 12 3B | 3 HR | .093 ISO | 73/25 SB/CS | 90:43 K:BB | .357 BABIP
The son of Tom “Flash” Gordon went the route of running as fast as his father could throw. He has been timed running 60 yards in 6.3 seconds. (For reference, Tyson Gillies mentioned in last week’s Seattle Minor League Review, ran 30 yards (from the batter’s box to first) in 3.8 seconds.) Looks like Gordon put his speed to work, stealing 73 bases in 140 games. Baseball America said that the only thing holding him back from being a major league ready shortstop is himself. His defense is immaculate (although he did have 34 errors) and he is able to move to both sides. Reminds me of Elvis Andrus, except faster.

Pitchers
#4 – Josh Lindblom | SP (RH) | AA/AAA | 22 | 7.7 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 96 1/3 IP | 3.83 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 1.04 GO/AO | .306/.295 BABIP (AA/AAA)
Mentioned in a September Scouting the Unknown, Lindblom looked impressive across two levels in 2009. He actually improved his strikeout rate from Double to Triple-A by over 1 K/9 (7.22 to 8.31 K/9). Although he isn’t the top ranked pitching prospect for the Dodgers, he does have the best fastball (as of 2009 rankings) and is the closest top prospect to immediately helping the Dodgers in 2010. Look for him to start in Triple-A with a mid-summer call up, especially if there is an injury.

#3 – Ethan Martin | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 10.8 K/9 | 5.5 BB/9 | 100 IP | 3.87 ERA [3.45 FIP] | 1.46 WHIP | .89 GO/AO | .333 BABIP
Yet another Dodger I mentioned in a September Scouting the Unknown (the same one as Lambo). He needs to harness that power fastball of his (92 to 94 mph with late movement) to become successful. Keep in mind that he was mainly a third baseman in high school and only pitched his senior year, meaning he still has a lot to learn. However, 100 innings in his first year means he probably shouldn’t pitch more than 130 next year.

#9 – Chris Withrow | SP (RH) | A+/AA | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.5 BB/9 | 113 2/3 IP | 4.51 ERA [3.68 FIP] | 1.42 WHIP | 1.14 GO/AO | .301 BABIP
The 2008 top draft pick has started to pick it up. He has a 92 to 94 mph fastball that has topped 98 before. Additionally, he has a power curve and a “clean delivery.”

Honorable Mentions
Trayvon Robinson | CF | A+/AA | 21 | .300/.373/.493 | 527 | 29 2B | 11 3B | 17 HR | .193 ISO | 47/20 SB/CS | 143:60 K:BB | .391/.324 BABIP (A+/AA)
Hit .241/.353/.402 in the AFL this fall. He only had 70 AB at Double-A. If he produces at Double-A like he did at High-A, which is highly unlikely as the California League is a hitter’s haven, he’ll have legit major league potential.

Scott Van Slyke | RF | A+ | 22 | .294/.372/.534 | 496 AB | 42 2B | 23 HR | .240 ISO | 128:61 K:BB | .357 BABIP
Like teammate Robinson, Van Slyke hit extremely well in the California League. Matter of fact, this was easily his best year in his entire career. He’ll have to hit like this at Double-A if he wants to be a fourth major league outfielder.

Um, yeah.  Ain’t that what I’ve been saying?  Since that Scouting the Unknown, Heyward moved up the Braves minor league ranks.  Hitting at a .352/.446/.611 clip at Double-A in 47 games, then .364/.462/.364 in only three games at Triple-A.  Sample size be damned!  Heyward can hit with power and has speed.  He had a leg injury in the AFL, but it shouldn’t hinder him for 2010.  He’ll be a first rounder in fantasy at some point in the near future.  My guess would be 2012 (assuming the Mayans are wrong).  Barring any trades this offseason for outfield pieces, the Braves could use Heyward immediately.  Okay, I’ll rephrase.  The Braves could use a productive Heyward.  As Schafer proved last April, the Braves will give a chance to a rookie, but he must produce.  I could see Heyward staying in the minors until June or breaking camp with the team.  If Heyward comes out of the gate galloping his pony sticks and mollywhopping with his man hands, he could give you a very cheap 12/20 season.  I like him late in mixed leagues if he has a starting gig out of Spring Training.  In keepers, he’s a must have and I could see drafting him in one year NL-Only leagues even if he starts the year in the minors.  I.e. My love is still strong on Jason Heyward for 2010 fantasy baseball.

10-7/4.42/1.35/102 in 128 and a 1/3 innings.  Wow, pretty specific on the predictions, huh?  Actually, those are David Price’s numbers in 2009.  I tell you that line so you keep expectations in check.  Neftali Feliz is going to be a great one.  I think there’s a good chance that he can throw 130 innings in 2010 (whether the Rangers start him in the rotation or bullpen or bring him up in June is still unknown).  He’s capable of a terrific 130 innings.  There’s a chance, at least.  Chance being the key word.  Rookie pitchers, even ones that have nasty stuff, are a risk.  Don’t expect a sub-2 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP over the course of the season.  The nice thing is he can strikeout one guy per inning.  There will likely be hiccups.  There always is.  There’s also rumblings that he might get moved to the bullpen to be groomed to be the closer.  I doubt it happens, but those are rumblings you should be aware of.  To be conservative, I’d say Neftali Feliz’s 2010 is 130 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 120 Ks.  Definitely someone that can be a solid number 3 to 4 in fantasy.  Upside, I’d say his 2010 looks like Tommy Hanson’s 2009.  So if you can get Feliz, you should be happy. (Spanish pun point for Grey.)

After stealing 30+ bases for two straight years, Grady looked like Kendry Morales on the basepaths, stealing only 13 bases in 21 attempts.  There’s a reason for that.  He suffered the groin issue/sports hernia or groinia back in spring training of 2009, so naturally he wasn’t running like he used to.  Consider this, he still stole 13 bases with a groinia.  You wouldn’t even be able to open a jar of pickles.  With the problem corrected, he should steal at least 20 bases again.  Then consider the elbow problem he was dealing with for most of the season.  He still hit 18 homers with that.  The average was anemic at .248.  But he also dealt with some bad luck, so that should go back up to his career norms, think .270.  For 2010, I could see Sizemore giving a 110/27/80/.270/25 line with a chance for more and returning 2nd round value.  He is definitely a keeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.