After stealing 30+ bases for two straight years, Grady looked like Kendry Morales on the basepaths, stealing only 13 bases in 21 attempts.  There’s a reason for that.  He suffered the groin issue/sports hernia or groinia back in spring training of 2009, so naturally he wasn’t running like he used to.  Consider this, he still stole 13 bases with a groinia.  You wouldn’t even be able to open a jar of pickles.  With the problem corrected, he should steal at least 20 bases again.  Then consider the elbow problem he was dealing with for most of the season.  He still hit 18 homers with that.  The average was anemic at .248.  But he also dealt with some bad luck, so that should go back up to his career norms, think .270.  For 2010, I could see Sizemore giving a 110/27/80/.270/25 line with a chance for more and returning 2nd round value.  He is definitely a keeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.

There’s no reason for the Indians to rush Santana.  His defense is shoddy with a chance of meatballs.  I don’t think we see him until June 1st at the earliest.  If he breaks camp with the team, he’ll be a quality sleeper in mixed leagues, 12 or deeper.  But really that’s only true because of his position.  If he were in the outfield, I’d tell you to ignore him in mixed leagues.  Best case scenario, 60/13/75/.280 in 400 at-bats.  Actually, now that I write that down, that seems pretty implausible.  (Sidenote:  As with most of these rookie posts, I wrote them about a month ago then reread them to make sure they’re still, ya know, gold.  Since I wrote this, Bill James’s projections have arrived.  He has Santana down for 16 homers in 500 at-bats.  Now that seems implausible.)  If Santana starts the year in the minors, he should be ignored in all leagues, except AL-Only and keeper ones.  In mixed leagues, you don’t want to hold an extra catcher for two months waiting for him to come up.  If you think you do, ask someone who drafted Matt Wieters last year.  Game, set, natch.

Records of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [85 – 77] AL West
AAA: [74 – 70] Pacific Coast League
AA: [62 – 78] Southern League
A+: [83 – 57] California League
A: [69 – 68] Midwest League
A(ss): [39 – 37] Northwest
R: [28 – 36] Appalachian League
R: [33 – 22] Pioneer League

The Run Down
Seattle had a massive turn around from 2008 when they were 61 – 101. With Bill Bavasi ousted, the new General Manager, Jack Zduriencik did an amazing job restructuring and rebuilding on the fly to create a competitive team. Trading J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green to the Mets for Endy Chavez and Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez helped shaped one of the most impressive defensive outfields all season – not to mention acquiring Jack Wilson (who they resigned for 2 yr/$10 million) and ridding himself of Yuniesky Betancourt. However, during Bavasi tenure (from 2004 to 2008), he traded away prospects, signed players and, in general, mismanaged the Mariners franchise. The epicenter of his ineptitude was trading Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Christ Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Eric Bedard who just came off a career year.

Nevertheless, life happens and people move on. The Mariners seem to have a logjam of outfielders in their minors (Greg Halman, Tyson Gillies, Michael Saunders, and Carlos Peguero) that are either highly ranked prospects or produced well this year. However, beyond a few stud position players, they lack a truly dominant ace. Phillippe Aumont has been moved into the bullpen to be groomed as a closer and their one dominant-looking pitcher (Michael Pineda) was ravaged by injuries this year. With all these performing outfielders, look for Seattle to make some trades this year that will allow their prospects to be promoted up a level – I am looking at you, Mr. Peguero. A random nugget of trivia – Seattle’s High-A team hit 164 homers leading the California League (which happens to be the Pacific Coast League’s little brother and carries on the family tradition of being a hitters league). The next closest team, a Texas affiliate hit 144 homers.

Graduating Prospects (Called-up Players)
#13 – (C) Rob Johnson; #2 – (OF) Michael Saunders; (SP) Doug Fister; (SP) Luke French; (SP) Chris Jakubuaska; #14 – (RP) Shawn Kelley

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Phillippe Aumont; Josh Fields (2008 #1 Draft Pick); Nick Hill; Anthony Varvaro
Hitters – (SS) Juan Diaz; (1B) Joe Dunigan; Dustin Ackley (2009 #1 Draft Pick)

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Greg Halman | CF | AA | 21 | .210/.278/.420 | 457 AB | 17 2B | 25 HR | .210 ISO | 9/7 SB/CS | 183:29 K: BB | .285 BABIP
After reducing his strikeout rates from 41.2% in 2007 to roughly 29% in 2008, Halman pushed his strikeout rate back up to 40% this year. Additionally, his BABIP wasn’t extremely low either, so there is no fluke factor pointing at his low average. Without strong plate discipline, pitchers can make Halman chase a pitch outside the zone. Considered the “Best Athlete” in the Mariners system and having been compared to Andre Dawson and Alfonso Soriano, some of his expectations should be reigned in. Look for him to repeat Double-A again next year and possibly a promotion to Triple-A if all goes well.

#20 – Tyson Gillies | CF | A+ | 21 | .341/.430/.486 | 498 AB | 17 2B | 14 3B | 9 HR | .145 ISO | 44/19 SB/CS | 81:61 K: BB | .395 BABIP
Gillies can scoot. He has been recorded to make it from home to first-base in 3.8 seconds (scores an 80 on a 20 – 80 scale; and he is the fastest player in Seattle’s minor league system). With this speed, his outfield defense is beyond stellar with a plus-arm to boot – actually the best arm for all of Seattle’s prospects. Most Mariner scouts believe he has a good “feel” for the strike zone, and this year he finally put it all together. Not exceptionally powerful, he was able to push a few over the fence. However, 61% of his contacted balls were on the ground. He still needs to improve his stealing percent. Expect to see Gillies in Double-A in 2010 and possibly in the majors if any major injuries occur because of his stellar defense.

Carlos Peguero | CF | A+ | 22 | .271/.335/.560 | 491 AB | 21 2B | 14 3B | 31 HR | .289 ISO | 3/4 SB/CS | 172:42 K: BB | .354 BABIP
Second in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston in the California League this year. Peguero exploded onto the scene after only hitting 12 homers in 2008. With Gillies manning center field at the same level, and Greg Halman right above both of these players, I would imagine Halman or Peguero will get traded this winter. Peguero strikes out a lot and this was his second go at High-A (because of Halman). Nevertheless, 66 extra-base hits are still impressive. He should start 2010 at Double-A.

Pitchers
#3 – Phillippe Aumont | RP (LH) | A+/AA | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 33 1/3 IP | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 1.37 GO/AO | .263/.436 BABIP
Mentioned him in a StU in September. He’ll probably open 2010 at Double-A and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him in the latter parts of the summer.

Nick Hill | SP (LH) | AA | 24 | 9.4 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 95 2/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 1.97 GO/AO | .318 BABIP
MLB wrote an article talking about how he was a pitcher at West Point – it also mentions his AFL stats, which aren’t looking very good. It’s very encouraging to see an almost two-to-one ground ball – fly ball ratio. He is a mid-level prospect at best and I wouldn’t envision hearing his name in many circles around baseball. However, Joel Pineiro isn’t sexy and he gets the job done. Hill could have success if he can keep the ball on the ground.

#10 – Michael Pineda | SP (RH) | A+ | 20 | 9.7 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 44 1/3 IP | 2.84 ERA | .80 WHIP | 1.69 GO/AO | .252 BABIP
I will let Marc Hulet do all the work here because he did an awesome job describing Pineda. He looks like an unheralded stud in the making.

Honorable Mentions
Alex Liddi | 3B | A+ | 21 | .345/.411/.594 | 493 AB | 44 2B | 23 HR | .249 ISO | 122:53 K:BB | .422 BABIP
This Italian’s numbers are highly inflated with an astronomically high BABIP (it’s nearly .100 points higher than his previous high at Single-A. He has played Single-A from ages 17 to 19 and finally moved up to High-A this year (he just recently turned 21). Another positive trend is that he has reduced his strikeout rate from 30.8% in 2007 to 24.7% this year while improving his walk-rate from 8.3% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2009 (not a huge increase, but definitely worth noting).

Joe Dunigan | 1B/RF/DH | A+ | 23 | .294/.355/.570 | 456 AB | 28 2B | 30 HR | .249 ISO | 20/8 SB/SB | .350 BABIP
Third in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston and teammate Peguero in the California League this year, Dunigan mashed his was to mid-level prospect status. Another positive asset is his ability to steal. With Mike Carp as the only first baseman ahead of Dunigan in the rankings, Dunigan may have a chance to prove his worth more in the long run as Carp has never been nearly as powerful. Speaking of which…

#17 – Mike Carp | 1B | AAA | 23 | .271/.372/.446 | 413 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .174 ISO | 99:58 K:BB | .324 BABIP
He has never hit more than 19 homers in a season (short season) and then 17 in a full season (High-A in the Florida State League). Upon promotion to the majors this September, Carp hit .315/.415/.463 in 53 AB. With Russell Branyan rejecting Seattle’s most recent contract, Carp may get placed into the limelight sooner rather than later. He was acquired in the Putz trade and has been compared to Mike Jacobs with better plate awareness and much better defense – though he is still an average defender at best. If he gets a chance out of spring training to start for the Mariners expect Conor Jackson-like numbers from 2007: 60/15/75/.275.

#5 – Juan Ramirez | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 7 K.9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 142 1/3 IP | 5.12 ERA (4.76 FIP) | 1.45 WHIP | 1.15 GO/AO | .317 BABIP
Has a 92 to 93 mph heater that has tip the scales to the tune of 97 mph before. He is still more a thrower than pitcher.

#21 – Gaby Hernandez | SP (RH) | AAA | 23 | 6 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 5.23 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | .69 GO/AO | .311 BABIP
Gives up a ton of fly-balls and gopher balls (1.3 HR/9 at Triple-A) and hasn’t been impressive in quite some time (since 2006 and 2007 at High-A).

#6 – Adam Moore | C | AA/AAA | 25 | .287/.352/.425 | 435 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .148 ISO | 72:42 K:BB | .310/.325 BABIP
Could potentially challenge Rob Johnson for starting catcher next spring. Moore is the better hitter but his defense isn’t even near Johnson’s.

What do Chad Tracy, Tony Clark, Conor Jackson, Josh Whitesell, Rusty Ryal and Chris Snyder have in common?  They suck.  They also played 1st base for the Diamondbacks at some point in 2009.  (Mark Reynolds played 28 games at 1st too, but I have it on good authority he wants to play 3rd… Actually, I don’t have it on any authority.  I’m educated-guessing here.  The Diamondbacks would be better with Reynolds at 3rd and Allen at 1st.)  So over the top rope comes the big-boned Brandon Allen.  He should get an ample opportunity in Spring Training to win the job.  If he can break camp with the Diamondbacks, he’ll be a solid sleeper for power in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper at a corner infidel spot.  In NL-Only leagues, he’ll be draftable as a sleeper 1st baseman.  He should provide power, if nothing else.  You’re looking at a 20 homer hitter with a chance for a bit more.  He’ll probably hurt you on average, but what else is new from a Diamondhack hitter?  Windmills were once used for pumping water through primitive irrigation systems.  Maybe the swings and misses are how the Diamondbacks keep the hot tub bubbling in the right field stands at Chase Field.

The similarities are both his pluses and minuses.  If Crawford is in left field and Upton is in center, does Jennings play short center?   Few things can happen, Crawford gets moved so Jennings can do exactly the same thing in his stead.  Jennings gets held back in the minors because there’s no room right now for him.  Or the Rays go with the All-Drool outfield of Upton, Crawford and Jennings; I’m sure this is the option Rays pitchers want.  Now things don’t always work out, remember I was caca-cuckoo for Cameron Maybin in the preseason last year.  If Jennings gets the call to start in the beginning of the year, I’d own him in ten team mixed leagues.  Shoot, I’m ready to take him in NL-Only leagues for s’s and g’s.  If he gets the every day job, this won’t be the last you’ve heard of him.  He’s exactly the kind of rookie that can have an immediate impact for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Quick, somebody make Crawford glue, I have pictures to paste!

In 433 at-bats last year, McCutchen hit 12 homers with 22 steals while batting .286.  Below those numbers, we see a guy who consistently hits the ball on the ground more than in the air in 2009 and 2008 (in Triple-A, his GB vs. FB percentages were 49.4 vs. 32.2).  This is good for a guy who relies on his speed to get on base.  The power he showed last year may be slightly fluky.  After all, he did hit 8 homers in August, which seems extreme for him.  I.e., I wouldn’t expect a huge gain in homers in 2010.  Maybe 15 homers max.  His walk rate was a bit high last year, but he did show a good eye for when he should/should not swing.  With his speed and 15 homer power, he’s definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper.  Think 80/14/65/.275/35.  For redraft leagues, The Dread Pirate can be someone who can provide more value than his draft spot, potentially taking a jump into the top 20 outfielders for 2010… Top 20 outfielders for 2010.  Aye, me parrot concurs.

I expect him to be given a chance in Spring Training to show off his ginourmous power, but be sent to Double-A to start the season.  If he can make the necessary adjustments, we can see him around mid-season.  For all their frugality, the Marlins aggressively promote/play their prospects (then trade them when they hit arbitration. Lates, Uggla.).  He’ll only be 20 in 2010 and still might be a full year away from contributing in fantasy.  I wouldn’t touch Stanton in one year leagues until he is definitely playing on the Marlins.  In deep NL-Only and keeper leagues, he should be owned coming out of your 2010 fantasy baseball draft.

Major League Record and Minor League Affiliates Records
MLB: 97 – 65 (AL West – Won Division)
AAA: 72 – 71 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 61 – 79 (Texas League)
A+: 61 – 79 (California League)
A: 78 – 60 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 51 – 25 (Pioneer League)
R: 38 – 18 (Arizona League)

The Run Down
The tragic loss of Nick Adenhart hurt on both a personal and organizational level. Adenhart was clearly their most major league ready player and could have provided an immediate impact (ignoring for the moment that Brandon Wood could do much the same, however he is no longer a rookie). The Angels truly don’t have a pitcher in their minors that is going to provide the dynamics that Adenhart would have. Now the Angels have to decide what to do with John Lackey and Chone Figgins pending free agency scenarios. Just recently, the Angels resigned Bobby Abreu to a three year contract that addressed a need that their minors aren’t quite ready to do. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Angels sign Lackey and let Figgins walk giving Wood his shot at the everyday starting third baseman. The trade for Scott Kazmir removed an above average hitter in Sean Rodriguez and one of their left-handed pitching prospects in #24 ranked Alex Torres. Torres finally put together a good year this year and I will mention him in the Rays Minor Review in the end of January/February.

Graduating Prospects
#5 – Sean O’Sullivan, #6 – Kevin Jepsen

Players in Arizona Fall League
Pitchers – Marco Albano, Jeremy Haynes, Tim Kiely, Tommy Mendoza
Hitters – #7 – Hank Conger (C ), #14 – Ryan Mount (2B), PJ Philips (SS)

Players of Interest
*Reminder that the “Players of Interest” section includes prospects that may have the ability to be called upon in the upcoming season. However, this doesn’t mean they will.

Hitters
Brandon Wood | 3B | 24 | AAA | .293/.353/.557 | 386 AB | 28 2B | 4 3B | 22 HR | 80:36 K:BB | .264 ISO
He has been the Angels’ number one prospect from 2006 to 2008, however, he accumulated enough at-bats in 2008 to remove his rookie label. Not to be dismissed from any promising young players conversation, Wood has the talent to produce at the major league level, it’s just a matter of playing time. In 1237 career at-bats in Triple-A, he has hit .287/.354/.547 with 76 homers (that’s about one homer every 16 at-bats) and a 310:126 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Halos Heaven had a good article about being patient with minor league prospects, talking about how Chase Utley and Ryan Howard weren’t up and producing in the majors until they were close to 26 and 27, respectfully. With Figgins possibly leaving in free agency, Wood may finally get his chance to play every day. Think a full season of Gordon Beckham – my predictions 80/22/75/.275/2. (I would bet the house that Grey will write about him sometime this winter.)

#3 – Peter Bourjos | CF | 22 | AA | .281/.354/.423 | 437 AB | 16 2B | 14 3B | 6 HR | 32/12 SB/CS | 77:49 K:BB | .142 ISO
MLB prints two top 50 prospect lists during the year. The first one at the beginning of the year, the second at the trade deadline. This year, Bourjos was ranked 42nd overall at the trade deadline re-rankings. Bourjos stole 50 bases in 2008, so those 32 steals this year aren’t a fluke. Additionally, he had seven outfield assists this year (11 in ‘08 and 10 in ‘07). Baseball America states that he has “… plus-plus speed,” but he’s a pretty hit-or-miss batter – struggling with plate-discipline. This year, he marginally improved his strikeout rate, and stepped up his walk rate by a far amount. Not that the Angels need him immediately, but they have a speedy outfielder on their hands that projects to be able to defend in center for years to come.

#7 – Hank Conger | C | 21 | AA | .295/.369/.424 | 458 AB | 20 2B | 11 HR | 68:55 K:BB | .129 ISO
Conger doubled his walk rate from 2008 (4.5% to 10.7%), and improved his caught stealing rate (to 30% from near 13% in 2008). However, he did regress in the power department as he did have an ISO of .214 in 2008 and .183 in 2007. He has had a string of injuries (hand, back, hamstring and a shoulder injury). Supposedly, he has immense power in his bat, but he tends to have poor plate-discipline (this was the first year he played a full season) – though he was considered the best hitter for average in the Angels farm system. Baseball America states that Conger, “… has All-Star potential if he can stay healthy.” With Napoli and Mathis still behind the plate, Conger may need to switch positions to see major league playing time in the near future. (Side note, his defense is sketchy at times and the Angels have already thought about switching his position.)

Pitchers
Trevor Bell | SP (RH) | 22 | AA/AAA/(MLB) | 5.7 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 140 IP | 2.70 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 1.36 GO/AO
Bell pitched 20 1/3 innings of major league baseball, but was annihilated to the tune of 9.74 ERA and a 2.51 WHIP. He split time at Double and Triple-A almost evenly (68 2/3 IP at Double-A and 71 1/3 IP at Triple-A). Not a high strikeout pitcher ever in his minor league career but he induces quite a few ground balls and keeps the ball in the park. Nothing spectacular, but he may get a shot out of spring training with the possibility of Lackey leaving (unless the Angels sign another starter).  Or he may get called up if an injury occurs.

#2 – Jordan Walden | SP (RH) | 21 | AA | 8.6 K/9 | 4.4 BB/9 | 60 IP | 5.25 ERA (3.77 FIP) | 1.68 WHIP
I mention Walden because he throws a 101 mph fastball that usually sits between 91 to 94 mph and a 87 mph slider. His fastball is considered one of the best fastballs in the entire Angels farm system. His change-up (prior to the 2009 season) was nearly non-existent. He may end up becoming a reliever with only two plus pitches.

#4 – Trevor Reckling | SP (LH) | 20 | A+/AA | 7.1 K/9 | 4.5 BB/9 | 2.68 ERA | 1.33 WHIP
I believe that Reckling may have passed Walden as the top ranked prospect in the Angels system (they traded Alex Torres away when they acquired Scott Kazmir). His control will need to be refined, but he has a nasty curve and a fastball that sits between 87 to 91 mph with a change-up considered his best offering. His ceiling is supposedly a #3 starter. Nothing special, but if he can control his curve better and build up his stamina, Reckling could be a serviceable fantasy pitcher.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Dillion Baird | 1B | 21 | R | .372/.452/.567 | 215 AB | 17 2B | 7 HR | 33:28 K:BB
Just drafted this year in round 11, Baird bombarded his rookie league with good plate discipline, gap power and a few homers. Kendry Morales definitely has his powerful swing sitting at first base for several more years, but Baird may eventually replace Morales.

Pitchers
#12 – William Smith | SP/RP (LH) | 19 | A | 7.4 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 115 IP | 3.76 ERA | 1.16 WHIP
I was tempted to put him in the above section, but he probably won’t sniff the majors until late next year. He has amazing control (in 2008 his K:BB was 76:6 – good for a 9.4 K/9 and .74 BB/9). Not quite as good as he was last year, but his talent and skills (a 87 to 93 mph fastball, a plus curve, and an average change-up). Keep an eye on this youngster, maybe he’ll become their next John Lackey.

Josh Blanco | RP (LH) | 19 | R | 11.3 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 50 1/3 IP | 3.04 ERA | 1.05 WHIP

Michael Kohn | RP (RH) | 23 | A/A+ | @A – 14.5 K/9 | 2.29 BB/9 | 37 IP | 2.19 ERA | .86 WHIP | @A+ – 13.5 K/9 | 4.40 BB/9 | 28 2/3 IP | .94 ERA | .94 WHIP (6 SV overall)
He is a bit old to be playing at High-A, but that strikeout rate is jaw-dropping, near drool worthy. He was drafted in 2008, and his BABIP is near league average at Single-A (.300) and was quite low at High-A (.256). However, his stat line was nearly identical. I don’t have much information on him, but stats like that shouldn’t go unnoticed.

Maybe.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and 120 Ks in 100 innings after a June call-up.  Terrific, ownable, not draftable for where he’ll be taken.  (This doesn’t count for keepers.  There I can see going after him.)  Rookies are already risky endeavors.  Rookie pitchers, more so.  The last seven number one draft picks were Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Justin Upton, Luke Hochevar, David Price, Tim Beckham and Strasburg.  One guy in those seven helped you in 2009.  Two and a half guys are draftable for 2010.  Yes, for the first time in his life, Delmon Young is being considered a half of a man…. Like he’s any smaller than the 1/2 on that Charlie Sheen/Jon Cryer sitcom.  Right now, Strasburg is pitching just over a 5 ERA in 4 starts in the Arizona Fall League.  Doesn’t matter, he’ll probably still be hyped in 2010.  Wait to see how Strasburg pitches in the spring.  If he pitches well, cool, let someone else waste a higher than warranted draft pick on him, then watch Strasburg sit in the minors for a few months.  Strasburg should be a great one, but let some other poor schmuck get the ill-advised chest tattoo that reads, “Strasburg for Prez in 2010.”

42 flippin’ steals in 109 games in Triple-A makes him a sleeper.  Dur.  You’re not liable to get much else from Alcides in 2010.  Last year, in 38 games with the Brewers he hit .304.  I wouldn’t trust that like I wouldn’t trust a drunk Christopher Walken on a boat.  (<– Obscure reference compliments of the book I was reading in Barnes & Noble on Saturday (no idea why he didn’t name it Heart to Heart (and don’t ask me why I was reading it))).  In a full season of at-bats, Escobar will probably be ranked in the bottom 20 hitters for walks to strikeouts.  In 6 seasons of the minor leagues, he only walked 140 times in 2571 at-bats.  Blech.  So he needs to hit to get on base.  He does beat the ball into the ground, which is a good thing for a burner.  Still, I think you’re looking at a max .275 hitter in 2010.  He can chuck in a few homers, as well.  But you’re not drafting him for that.  What you want is steals, and he’ll provide ‘em.  I’d compare him to 2009 Elvis Andrus.  Not much, not much, steals.  Alcides Escobar is a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper and exactly the kind of guy I’d look at late for MI.