1. Top hitters at weak positions rule in keepers.

Utley, Mauer, Hanley, et al. are top keepers.  I’m not a fan of drafting Mauer very early on in redrafts.  But in a keeper league, I’m assuming you have him for a lot cheaper than he’ll go in redrafts, especially when considering he went late in 2009 drafts because of back issues.

2. Value is a trump card.

In the above Utley/Marmol example, I knew Marmol would be very cheap on your team because he was nothing but a middle man in 2008.  Though he had the stuff to be the closer in 2009 and Kevin Gregg blocking him — ha!  Are you keeping Marmol over Miguel Cabrera?  Not unless Nurse Ratched just gave you a lobotomy.  Would I have told you last year to keep a 20th round Marmol over, say, a 8th round Vernon Wells?  Yes, I would’ve.  Another example of value as trump card, Derrek Lee in the 6th round or Kendry Morales in the 20th round?  Kendry Morales wins.

3. Try to figure out who your leaguemates are keeping.

Or the inverse of that, who will be available on draft day.  This is sometimes easier said than done, but you should be able to gauge more or less the guys that will be kept.  For instance, if there’s going to be no top 3rd basemen in the draft, it makes Kevin Youkilis in the 3rd round a lot more appealing.

4. When in doubt, keep a hitter.

I’m not opposed to keeping a pitcher or two, but if I could have my druthers — those are MY druthers! — I’d keep hitters.  Same that holds true for redraft leagues holds true for keepers.  Pitchers are unpredictable from year to year.

5. Take a gamble on upside.

Some players have top 50 upside.  Think The Dread Pirate.  Am I gambling on upside over a proven commodity?  No, I’m not.  But if you keep, say, 5 keepers, take 4 proven guys and gamble on one guy to have some upside.

6. Don’t be cute; go for the win this year vs. the future win.

This point couches point number five.  Don’t overload on future talent.  I’m sure Strasburg will be dynamite.  He may even be dy-no-mite.  That doesn’t mean you’re playing 2011 before 2010 even starts, future boy.

Greetings friends, acquaintances and ex-wives!  Wow, another baseball season is in the books!  I’d like to tip my hat to Joe Girardi.  If I had a son, I’d name him Joegirardi King… I haven’t been this excited for a Yankees win since the Civil War… Don’t worry, Philadelphia – at least you still have that delicious cream cheese….  The last game reminded me of the time I had lunch with Wolf Blitzer.  I fell asleep during both…. I wish there were fjords in Kansas…. The only thing new Cardinal hitting instructor Mark McGwire has to apologize for is his killer smile…. I hope Cole Hamels’ mom teaches him a thing or two about spunk… If I threw a party, I’d invite Carlos Ruiz and ask him how he squats behind the plate.  My knees don’t work so good anymore… I was enchanted by Sandra Bullock’s performance in All About Steve.  When she does an accent, Oscar says, “Yes!”… I don’t think Chone Figgins is going to leave the Angels because it’ll take too long to teach everyone at another stadium to say his name correctly… Why can’t I find my pajamas?  I’m cold…. The best restaurant on the Upper East Side is the alleyway behind Le Cirque where the bus boys hang out and smoke… I’m bucknaked as I type this, and I’m not typing with my fingers… Where has Celine Dion been? I’m dying for a music-inspired soundtrack for James Cameron’s latest, Avatar…  Speaking of which, am I the only one that wants to pronounce it Ava Tar?… If Sean Casey is the Mayor, then Mark Grace is the Comptroller… The player I most identify with in the Major Leagues is Manny Ramirez…We both are from a New York borough…We both use erectile dysfunction pills…We both pee at inappropriate times…. Ah, there’s my pajamas, who put them in the microwave?…. The Pirates fans better get their season tickets early, you got Akinori Iwamura now!  I regretted not buying a baseball team until watching Frank McCourt’s ordeal.  Such a shame as Angela’s Ashes is one of my favorite books of all time.  Let’s just hope that Peter and Maya Angelos stay together…

Major League Record and Minor League Affiliates Records
MLB: 70 – 92 (NL West – sixth worst record in MLB)
AAA: 79 – 64 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 66 – 74 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 76 (California League)
A: 59 – 78 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 28 – 48 (Northwest League)
R: 40 –36 (Pioneer League)

The Run Down
Arizona has traded away seven top 17 prospects prior to the 2009 season (#1 – OF – Carlos Gonzales (Rockies), #3 – SP – Brett Anderson (A’s), #6 – 2B/SS/OF – Emilio Bonifacio (Nationals, eventually Marlins), #7 – OF – Aaron Cunningham (A’s), #8 – 1B – Chris Carter (Mets), #13 – SP – Greg Smith (Rockies), #17 – P – Dallas Buck (Reds)). The Diamondbacks have acquired copious amounts of talent through trades and have sent even more talent away in trades. The Dan Haren trade definitely depleted their top talent (Gonzales, Anderson, Cunningham, Carter (who was acquired for 11 days from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Carlos Quentin), and Smith). Haren has pitched extremely well for Arizona, however, Brett Anderson pitched well for the A’s too – not nearly as dominate, but eight years younger than Haren. Trading the farm for essentially one player may not have been the best decision. Josh Byrnes, the D-Back GM since 2006 (which coincidentally is the year their farm talent was ranked number one), has traded, signed and created a team that Baseball America says, “… [Has] created a roadmap of how to tumble from the top ranking to near the bottom in near record time. Arizona has drafted conservatively, leading to a lack of power arms and bats, and traded prospects aggressively to supplement a young, talented big league team.”

To add insult to injury, one of the games top power arms and their top prospect for 2009, Jarrod Parker, is having Tommy John surgery. In the Scouting the Unknown article I wrote regarding Parker, he was just visiting Dr. James Andrew about his “’elbow tightness’ that caused him to be DL’d on August 5th.” Now he’s out for at least a year. If not for his injury, Parker would have been in the same boat next year as Tommy Hanson was this year. With a rotation of Haren, Brandon Webb, Max Scherzer, Doug Davis and fill-in fifth starter, the Diamondbacks would love to improve from within. Webb is a huge question mark, Scherzer still needs to learn how to pitch and not just throw, Davis should be a long reliever or a fifth starter. On the hitting front, other than Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds, this team has very few sure things. Is Miguel Montero the real deal? Was the 2009 Stephen Drew the real Stephen Drew? Who plays second base? Can Conor Jackson return from Valley Fever? How good will Gerardo Parra be and what do you do with Eric Byrnes? They have a ton of questions to answer this off-season. Here are some players that could help sooner rather than later:

Graduating Prospects
#2 – Gerardo Parra (OF), #23 – Clay Zavada (RP), #8 – Billy Buckner (SP), #3 – Daniel Schlereth (RP), and Esmerling Vasquez (RP)

Players in the Arizona Fall League
Pitchers – Bryan Augenstein | Tom Layne | Scott Maine | Cesar Valdez
Hitters – Brandon Allen | Pedro Ciriaco | Cole Gillespie

Players of Interest
Numbers prior to a players name are their prospect rankings according to Baseball America 2009. Additionally, deviating from previous articles, the “Players of Interest” section will focus on higher level players or players that may end up on the MLB roster at some point during the 2010 season.

Hitters
Brandon Allen | 1B | AA/AAA | 23 | .298/.375/.503 | 447 AB | 24 2B | 20 HR | 85:50 K:BB | .205 ISO
Once he was acquired by the Diamondbacks from the White Sox for reliever Tony Pena, he raked in Triple-A. He was called-up to the Majors on the 21st of August and hit .202/.284/.385 striking out 38.5% of his 104 at-bats (40:12 K:BB). With Chad Tracy or Conor Jackson as the competition for first base next year, Allen may get a chance out of spring. However, a June call up would be more likely.

#9 (@ MIL) – Cole Gillespie | OF | A+/AAA | 25 | .273/.372/.472 | 417 AB | 20 2B | 12 3B | 13 HR | 18/5 SB/CS | 98:65 K:BB | .199 ISO
Gillespie was acquired in the Felipe Lopez trade. Playing only a month at High-A, the Brewers promoted him to Triple-A because he played at Double-A all of 2008. He is a little on the old side for a top prospect. Nevertheless, hitting 12, 14 and 13 homers these past three years isn’t overly impressive, but paired with 18, 16,17, and 18 steals in his four years as a minor leaguer, he looks like a poor man’s Mike Cameron. That isn’t terrible, just not jaw dropping nor Braun-like exciting. He is sneaky boring like Shin-Soo Choo.

#14 – Pedro Ciriaco | SS | AA | 22 | .296/.319/.367 | 469 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | 38/10 SB/CS | 71:16 K:BB | .070 ISO
Bad news, defense is still an issue.  Good news, his steal efficiency has improved. The majority of his promise lies in his steals and quick defense. He still has too many errors to be a defensive improvement over Drew and he will never hit like him either. However, maybe moving Reynolds to first base, Drew to third, and Ciriaco to SS eventually may prove to be a better defensive infield for the Diamondbacks.

Pitchers
#1 – Jarrod Parker | SP (RH) | A+/AA | 20 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 97 1/3 IP | 3.14 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | .353 BABIP | 73.2 LOB% | 3.21 FIP
Here is an article about Parker rehabbing. The StU article lays him out pretty well. Keep in mind that he won’t be near the majors for at least another 18 months.

Bryan Augenstein | SP (RH) | AA/AAA | 22 | 7.2 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 81 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.04 WHIP
Great control, decent strikeout rates, and actually pitched in the Majors this year (17 IP, threw 45 2/3 IP at Double-A, 36 IP at Triple-A). Not sure why he wasn’t ranked this year as he pitched well at Single and High-A last year. So far this fall, he has pitched decent in the AFL – 9:1 K:BB in 7 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER

#5 – Wade Miley | SP (LH) | A/A+ | 22 | 7.1 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 128 2/3 IP | 4.20 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 67.2 LOB% | 3.38 FIP
Offering three above average pitches, Miley’s biggest concern was sloppy command. He throws his fastball between 89 and 92 mph, a slider that’s his best pitch, and an average change-up. He threw 113 innings in 2008, and looks like he is following the Verducci rule.

Honorable Mentions
#26 – Leyson Septimo | RP (LH) | AA | 23 | 11 K/9 | 7 BB/9 | 56 2/3 IP
A lefty power arm that throws in the upper 90s but cannot locate his pitches. He had a 9.7 K/9 and 7.2 BB/9 ratios in 2008.

Winston “Ollie” Linton | OF | A+ | 23 | .295/.394/.399 | 491 AB | 28 2B | 10 3B | 1 HR | 28/14 SB/CS | 104:65 K:BB | .104 ISO
Strikes out way too much for a slap hitter. The steals are nice, and he hits the ball into the gaps well.

Josh Collmenter | SP (RH) | A+ | 23 | 9.4 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 145 1/3 IP | 4.15 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 63.8 LOB% | 3.12 FIP
Marc Hulet mentions that Collmenter may actually be a bit better than his numbers state. Had the most strikeouts in the Diamondbacks farm system. Random fact, his hometown is Homer, Michigan. Arizona hopes that name doesn’t translate into any baseball stat.

Patrick McAanley | SP (LH) | A+ | 23 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 147 IP | 4.41 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 71.9 LOB% | 4.08 FIP
Threw the second most innings in the Diamondbacks farm system and had the second most strikeouts. Important to note that he is a lefty in a system that lacks many left-handed arms.

Dan Taylor | SP (LH) | A(ss) | 21 | 11.2 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 63 2/3 IP | 3.53 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 72.2 LOB% | 3.03 FIP
After getting drafted in the 2009 draft (in round 21), he posted the best ERA, WHIP, and AVE against in the Diamondbacks farm system. He pitched as a starter and reliever. He also posted a 1.24 Ground out to fly out ratio. Keep an eye on this young man.

Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | R | 21 | .334/.408/.638 | 287 AB | 27 2B | 18 HR | 74:36 K:BB | .303 ISO
Easily posted the most impressive raw numbers in the entire Diamondbacks farm. Drafted in the eighth round of the 2009 draft, Goldschmidt absolutely raked, had good walk rates, but needs to reduce his strikeouts. I would expect him to play at High-A and Double-A next year.

In 520 at-bats between Double and Triple-A, Sizemore hit 17 homers and stole 21 bags while maintaining .308/.389/.500. He only lost about 60 points in slugging when he moved from Double-A to Triple and his line drive rate actually got better.  (More on Scott Sizemore’s minor league numbers.)  One drawback is he’s starting to ripen late for a prospect (he’ll be 25 years old in 2010).  He needs to make the move this year.  And, to be fair, if he played outfield, I may not be talking about him, but at 2nd base giddy-up.  Leyland has shown he doesn’t have any qualms about playing a rookie.  Incredibly, he batted a rookie third for about 200 at-bats in 2009.  Also, knowing Leyland’s tendency to save trees by Liquid Papering lineup cards, he may simply replace Polanco in the two hole with Sizemore. With a starting job, Sizemore could mean 80/14/70/.275/16 with upside from there.  This is exactly the kind of guy I would take a flier on at MI late in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  If he doesn’t pan out, then you grab Felipe Lopez or some other schmohawk.  So if you go with Sizemores for $300 and the answer is, “He has two working elbows and a blood alcohol level under .25.”  The question is, who is Scott Sizemore?

I’m going to say doubtful with a chance of “not at all.”  As with other recent Cuban raftees, Viciedo likes to swing the bat and doesn’t do much walking.  In his first year of the minors at Double-A, he had a .317 OBP with 89 Ks to 23 walks.  He can probably have success with this approach, because he do what he do.  His line drive percentages went up in the 2nd half of the year, showing he was making better contact.  Really his terrible April brought everything down.  Interesting (to me, at least), in April he had his lowest line drive rate and highest fly ball rate as his numbers suffered.  The Akron Chapter of Speculating on Small Sample Sizes says, maybe he was trying to do too much in his first month of minor league ball.  He’s still (supposedly) only 20 years old.  Another year (or at least a half year) will do him good.  Best case scenario, two to three months in Triple-A and a mid-summer call up.  Worst case scenario, we don’t see him until 2011.  Outside of keepers, I wouldn’t bother with him in your March 2010 drafts.

Let’s tackle average first.  In 2009, his line drive rate fell (15.4% from 18.9% in 2008) and his walks plummeted (9.2% from 15.4% in 2008).  Meantime, his fly ball rate went through the roof (for him) from 30.6% in 2008 to 40.3% in 2009.  His K-rate also went up.  This leads me to think he was swinging at balls he didn’t used to swing at and trying to do too much with them.  This isn’t much of a limb, the numbers bear this out with him swinging at nearly 5% more pitches outside the strike zone.  This might sound Tim McCarverish, but he needs to relax, wait for his pitch and his average should turn around.  I’d bet on a .270 average from him in 2010.  As for the evaporated power, it’s a bit trickier.  His home run per fly ball ratio in 2007 was 19.8%.  That seems to be an outlier.  He’s probably closer to a 10-12% home run to fly ball hitter.  That still puts him in the 15 homer range.  The steals are there, obviously.  So if a 15/40 hitter with a .270 average is a keeper for your team, I’d keep B.J. Upton.

1. Joe Nathan – Has an unprecedented streak of 24 consecutive months being a $12 salad.  As soon as he gives me his address, I’ll send him the green, leafy ribbon.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  2-3/1.90/1.00/75, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

2. Jonathan Broxton – Didn’t lead the league in saves, wasn’t that dominant with ERA, but 114 Ks for a reliever will get them ranked pretty high.  Throw in 7 vulture wins and you have the number two ranked closer.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.15/80, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  7-2/2.61/.96/114, 36 saves

3. Mariano Rivera – Some year he will not live up to his standard.  When that year will be is anyone’s guess. Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-3/1.76/.90/72, 44 saves

4. Andrew Bailey – If you take the best middle reliever year and throw in 26 saves, you have Bailey.  Definitely one of those guys that you were probably waiting for the bottom to fall out at any moment and it never happened.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-3/1.84/.88/91, 26 saves

5. Heath Bell – I owned Bell in quite a few leagues since people seem to shun guys who had never closed before even though pitchers have shown over and over again closer experience usually means little.  Had his best save and worst ERA month in September with 9 saves and a 5.14 ERA.  Preseason Rank #16 2009 Projections:  4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves, Final Numbers:  6-4/2.71/1.12/79, 42 saves

6. Brian Wilson – Because I’m on the West Coast, I always find myself watching the tail end of Giants games.  What I (think) I notice is Wilson is rarely a guy that seems like a sure thing.  I say (think) because it might just be the games I watch.  So this sent me looking at all of the games he closed in 2009.  What I found is my (thought) was correct.  He only recorded 11 three up, three down saves out of 38.  To give you some perspective, Franklin had 14.  Though Wilson was flat-out dominate in the 2nd half (1.64 ERA).  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves, Final Numbers:  5-6/2.74/1.20/83, 38 saves

7. Trevor Hoffman – Old is as old continues to do.  Next year, he’ll be entering to the Hells Belles Comedy Cabaret album. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

8. David Aardsma – Bailey’s probably the epitome of SAGNOF, so what’s right under epitome?  Example of?  Embodiment?  “Eh, same thing?”  That was Aardsma.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  3-6/2.52/1.16/80, 38 saves

9. Huston Street – In the preseason, I said, “Yes, he’s injury prone. Yes, he lost the A’s closer job last year.  If he’s the Rox closer, none of that should matter to you.  As I’ve repeatedly repeated… If someone’s getting saves, you should be drafting him.”  Yup.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  1-4/3.75/1.10/17 saves, Final Numbers:  4-1/3.06/.91/70, 35 saves

10. Jonathan Papelbon – Here’s a place their Player Rater fails big time.  Papelbon is this low because he recorded only one vulture win.  It’s nice, but you can’t really rely on closers to get vulture wins.  The rest of his numbers are fine for a closer.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  6-2/1.75/.95/80, 45 saves, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.85/1.15/76, 38 saves

11. Ryan Franklin – I’m pretty sure La Russa and Duncan could make Brendan Ryan a serviceable closer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  4-3/1.92/1.20/44, 38 saves

12. Francisco Cordero – By taking the last letters of his first name and the first letters of his last name, he has one of my favorite nicknames, CoCo.  Who’s some other players this would work with?  Ben Zobrist with EnZo…  Zobrist sounds Jewish and he gets an Italian nickname?  What’s he, a pizza bagel?  Doesn’t work.  How about Ryan Howard?  AnHo?  Eh..  Wait, I got one!  Miguel Montero.  Now we just need Daron Sutton to say something like, “The Count’s in Elmo’s favor…”  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  2-6/2.16/1.32/58, 39 saves

13. Rafael Soriano – See what I said regarding Bailey.  Go ahead, scan your eyes up a little.  There ya go!  Soriano did basically the same thing.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-6/2.97/1.06/102, 27 saves

14. Joakim Soria – Soria dealt with some injury issues this year and still put together a good season.  Soria blamed the WBC; I blamed Selig.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  3-4/2.00/.95/60, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/2.21/1.13/69, 30 saves

15. Brian Fuentes – Knock on the door.  *opening door*  A red flag stands there.  What’s up, red flag? Fuentes had more saves than Ks.  Red Flag out.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  1-5/3.93/1.40/46, 48 saves

16. Francisco Rodriguez – Wasn’t a great season, but you were foolish if you thought he was going to save another 62 games.  Actually, wasn’t as bad when you consider he gave up 5 runs in his next to last appearance.  Right before that, he had a 3.09 ERA.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.30/80, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.71/1.31/73, 35 saves

17. Jose Valverde – Hopefully you were able to grab LaTroy Hawkins when he filled in for Valverde, so your JoTroy Valkins got you 36 saves.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  4-2/2.33/1.13/56, 25 saves

18. George Sherrill – From Donkeycorn to a middle man but still retained his value, especially for MR. B’s, as Sherrill only gave up 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings in LaLa Land.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.70/1.12/61, 21 saves

19. Michael Wuertz – Wuertz comes in as our first and last true middle reliever to make the top 20 closer list.  If you owned, say, James Shields (11-12/4.14/1.32/167) and Wuertz the entire season, your combined numbers would’ve been 17-13/3.74/1.23/269; that looks like vintage Nolan Ryan.  In other words, you could’ve done *pinkie to mouth* Wuertz.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.63/.95/102, 4 saves

20. J.P. Howell – Whatever Beane is feeding his bullpen up in Oakland, Tampa could use some of it as Howell was a whole lot better before he started closing.  Thurston and Lovey expected more.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/2.84/1.20/79, 17 saves

Record of Major League Team and Affiliates
Majors: 83 – 78 (NL Central)
AAA: 72 – 72 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 71 – 69 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 71 (Florida State League)
A: 81 – 57 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 34 – 52 (Northwest League)
R: 29 – 27 (Arizona League)

The Run Down
Two really interesting factoids from Baseball America’s preview on the 2009 Cubs, factoid number 1 – “Chicago hasn’t gotten long-term production out of a first-round pick since Kerry Wood in 1995; factoid number 2 – other than Geovany Soto, who as drafted in round 11 in 2001, they “haven’t developed a position player it signed into an All-Star since they drafted Joe Girardi in 1986.” With a couple of trades this past year (Sean Gallagher and catcher Josh Donaldson for Rich Harden; Jose Ceda (#4 ranked prospect) for Kevin Gregg) the Cubs traded away a third of their top ten prospects. Through trades in the recent past, Chicago has built a contender each year at the expense of their farm system.

After another disappointing season on the north side, the Cubs have several pressing issues about their team. Milton Bradley was a flop, Rich Harden is a free agent, Alfonso Soriano got old really fast, and second base was a tale of two halves. Bradley looks like he on his way out of town, Harden may be too costly to keep around, Soriano is on the tail end of his career, and there are few solid options from within to replace the outfield spot of Bradley let alone another injury ravaged season of Soriano. On a positive note, Derrek Lee was his old self hitting 35 homers and .306/.394/.579, Randy Wells came out of nowhere to have an extraordinarily great rookie year, and Ryan Theriot provided good defense and sufficient offense from the shortstop position.

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Andrew Cashner, John Gaub, Blake Parker, James Russell – All SP
Welington Castilo (C) ,Starlin Castro (SS), Josh Vitters (3B)

Players of Interest
*A number prior to a player’s name indicates Baseball America’s 2009 prospect Ranking

#1 – Josh Vitters | 3B | A/A+ | 19 | totals – .284/.314/.456 | 458 AB | 18 HR | .172 ISO | 65:12 K:BB
If you’ve been reading Razzball all summer, you would have saw here that I wasn’t sold on Vitters being a stud major league hitter in his career. This isn’t to start a debate, but a harsh analysis on Vitters may not be terrible. Each prospect has their pros and cons. I will look at Vitters again next summer and see where he is at. His overall total numbers look pretty good, but he struggled at High-A this year. Look at his slash line at each level:

A – .316/.351/.535 in 269 AB
A+ – .238/.260/.344 in 189 AB

Not what you want your hitter doing upon a promotion; granted his BABIP at Single-A was .330 and at High-A was .258 indicating he was having some “bad-luck.” He is only 19, is a level-or-so above his age, but his walk ratio will start to become a larger red flag as he progresses through the minors unless he can change his walking ways. He still is one of the best young hitting prospects in the entire majors, so patience may be a HUGE key (and for me, as well).

Kyler Burke | OF | A | 21 | .303/.405/.505 | 465 AB | 43 2B | 15 HR | .202 ISO | 99:78 K:BB
2009 was a career year for Burke. He cut his strikeout rate by a third and increased his walk-rate from 7.7% to 14.4% since 2008. With an aging outfield in Chicago, he may be a bright spot if he can reproduce these numbers at higher levels. Take this all with a grain of salt, this year was his first full year at Single-A, but he has had half seasons there in the past two seasons.

#10 – Hak-Ju Lee | SS | A(ss) | 18 | .330/.399/.420 | 264 AB | .090 ISO | 25/8 SB/CS | 50:31 K:BB | .401 BABIP
Chicago’s big international signing out of Korea did pretty well for his first year in America. He looks to be a light hitting, defensive shortstop with some speed. Keep in mind he had an extremely high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Being so young, his ceiling is still sky high. Look for him to play at Single-A in 2010 and ideally progress to Double-A by the end of ‘10.

#7 – Starlin Castro | SS | A+/AA | 19 | totals – .299/.432/.392 | 429 AB | .093 ISO | 28/11 SB/CS | 53:29 K:BB
Another prized shortstop in the Cubs organization put things together this year.  The upper brass is really hoping that Theriot can keep the spot warm for Castro. He has more speed than his steals would even lead one to believe as he is still learning the stealing craft. Playing predominately at Single-A, his late season promotion to Double-A proved that he could handle the higher competition. Look for him to start at Double-A in 2010, even if he performs above expectations at Arizona this fall.

#3 – Andrew Cashner | SP (RHP) | A+/AA | 22 | totals – 6.7 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 100 1/3 IP | 2.60 ERA | 1.18 WHIP
Once he was promoted to Double-A his stats started to fall. Both his strikeouts and walks took large hits at Double-A. One positive is he only gave up one homer all season. His ranking should take a hit as he didn’t produce like a top prospect. If he has a strong Fall League performance, he may be nearing a mid-season look or September call up in 2010. Look for him to start in Double-A.

#9 – Jay Jackson | SP (RHP) | A+/AA/AAA| 22 | totals – 9 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 127 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.22 WHIP
His level spread is a bit deceiving as he only started and pitched in one game at Triple-A. Once he started pitching in Double-AA his walk rate went from .8 BB/9 in 36 1/3 innings at High-A to 4.2 BB/9 in 82 2/3 innings at Double-A. His dominance in High-A is truly what makes his stats look really impressive. He might start 2010 in Double-A, waiting for the warmer weather of the Pacific Coast games, or could start in Triple-A.  Either way, he should be given the chance to play in the majors next summer.

Jeff Antigua | SP (LHP) | A(ss)/A | 19 | totals – 8.9 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 68 2/3 IP | 3.01 ERA | .99 WHIP
A little under the radar, Antigua pitched brilliantly aside from his seven home runs he gave up. Being left-handed will increase his stock greatly as the Cubs don’t have many top left-handed prospects. He’ll probably start again in Single-A with a mid-season promotion to Double-A.

Honorable Mentions
Brett Jackson | OF | R/A(ss)/A | 20
Drafted number 31 in the 2009 draft. Hit seven of his eight homers, 11 of his 13 stolen bases, and five of his six doubles at Single-A.

Rebel Ridling | 1B | A | 23
As both ranked first basemen above him in the Cubs organization have graduated, look for Ridling to be a prospect rated in the low twenties for 2010. He finally produced in his second year at Single-A. He cut his strikeouts by nearly half, almost doubled his walk rate (not hard when you start so low), yet he still has a long ways to be more than organizational depth.

#16 – Tyler Colvin | OF | A+/AA | 23
Actually got promoted in September with three hits in 17 at-bats.

#8 – Ryan Flaherty | 3B/2B | A | 22
Hit 20 homers in 485 at-bats while producing an above average slash line of .276/.344/.470 and a decent K:BB of 98:50.

#18 – Chris Carpenter | SP (RHP) | A/A+/AA | 23
Finally moved up a few levels to match his talent and age. Still performed below expectations at each level besides Single-A, while pitching the best overall at High-A

21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA).  Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.75/1.24/174

22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010.  105 Ks; blech!  I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year.  He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.49/1.14/105

23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma.  He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself.  Don’t worry about wins.  Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games.  Pitfall, Harry!  Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers:  8-8/2.79/1.23/185

24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets.  Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show.  Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.13/1.21/146

25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again.  Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.62/1.26/161

26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits.  On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13.  That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively.  The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th.  By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year.  Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.73/1.31/204

27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me.  Confounded I tell ya!  He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league?  That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves.  Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-4/2.93/1.23/119

28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half.  He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific.  Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  15-9/4.37/1.19/162

29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA).  In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06.  Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010.  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers:  15-13/3.84/1.27/127

30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league.  Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate.  He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season.  For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/2.89/1.18/116

31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks.  What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up.  It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.77/1.28/149

32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting.  My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year.  Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise.  Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  11-9/3.65/1.31/172

33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed.  Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there.  His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/3.05/1.28/104

34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE!  Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one.  Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd.  His 2008 looked like an outlier.  In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA.  What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us.  Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  11-11/4.06/1.23/163

35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman.  His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma.  Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?”  Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/4.08/1.28/113

36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first.  So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  8-12/3.95/1.26/189

37. Chad Billingsley – Bust!  I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk.  Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci.  I will love Billingsley again next year.  Major bounce back coming.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers:  12-11/4.03/1.32/179

38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break).  I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good.   Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-9/4.38/1.38/193

39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92.  Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible.  Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.84/1.25/105

40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career.  Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  13-9/4.04/1.40/195

1. Zack Greinke – I’m sure Rudy will cover this at some point in the offseason, but let’s get it out of the way right off the bat.   Greinke showed up on the Risky pitcher post in the preseason.  I count 13 of the 20 pitchers Rudy flagged that did run into troubles in 2009, so I think we can agree it wasn’t an abomination.  The concern with the high pitch count in 2008 for Greinke turned out to be nothing.  Everything was roses.  Red luscious roses like Rip Taylor’s intern tosses at his feet.  Two months under a .55 ERA, more than a K/IP on the year, next to no walks and he didn’t need to talk to the ball between hitters.  Preseason Rank #42, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.10/1.30/130, Final Numbers:  16-8/2.16/1.07/242

2. Tim Lincecum – A few weeks ago, someone in the comments said Tim Lincecum’s mullet makes him look like someone Ellen DeGeneres should be dating.  It’s funny because it’s true.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  17-8/3.00/1.18/210, Final Numbers:  15-7/2.48/1.05/261

3. Felix Hernandez – To stick with the Ellen theme, F-Her headed the preseason tier I named, “Guys I’m Kinda Gay For.”  Wainwright was also in that tier.  Luckily, I grabbed Hernandez in one league and Wainwright in just about every other league.  F-Her had one bad month (May; 4.34 ERA), topped 200 Ks, a 1.99 ERA in Away starts, a .603 OPS against and 19 wins.  This is about this year, but, I’ll say it, I love him for next year, too.  And, for some reason, I think he’s underrated.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.33/190, Final Numbers:  19-5/2.49/1.14/217

4. Javier Vazquez – In the preseason, CHONE drooled over Vazquez.  Lots of people disagreed.  CHONE 1, Lots of People Who Disagreed 0.  My abridged comments in the preseason were, “Besides having a last name that would be great for Scrabble, I like him.”  At 33, it was hard to imagine Vazquez having a career year, but that was exactly what he did.  Preseason Rank #34, 2009 Projections:  15-8/4.15/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  15-10/2.87/1.03/238

5. Dan Haren – In the preseason, I said, “Here’s the first pitcher (in the top ten) that I have a legitimate shot at owning in leagues in 2009.   Wins aside, guess who had more value in 2008, Haren or Webb?  Obviously I’m asking the question because it’s Haren.  He beat Webb in WHIP and Ks and practically tied him in ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I did end owning him and he pitched predictably terrific in the 1st half and just-above mediocre in the 2nd half.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  16-7/3.40/1.15/195, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.14/1.00/223

6. Chris Carpenter – Not going to claim I saw this season coming at all.  I always thought Carpenter was a great pitcher, but, frankly, I was worried about him coming off the injury season.  I preached caution; I should’ve preached to ignore me.  Preseason Rank #59, 2009 Projections:  9-5/3.70/1.27/110, Final Numbers:  17-4/2.24/1.01/144

7. Roy Halladay – In 2008, Halladay had a 2.78 ERA and 206 Ks.  This year, 2.79 and 208.  If I had to boil down fantasy baseball success, I’d say you want predictability + upside.  Considering most starters are like shooting fish in a barrel that has no fish in it, Halladay brings a sense of predictability that isn’t easily found.  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.50/1.10/165, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.79/1.13/208

8. Adam Wainwright – Had some control problems early in the season, but he straightened those out in a big way in the 2nd half (97/18 K/BB).  Yes, he made Rufus and me very happy this year.  Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections:  13-7/3.60/1.20/150, Final Numbers:  19-8/2.63/1.21/212

9. Justin Verlander – With his 2nd season in a row of poor April numbers, it’s fair to say Verlander takes some time to start cooking.  I guess when you rely on a 98 MPH fastball, the warm weather helps the, uh, heat.  Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  15-9/4.00/1.30/160, Final Numbers:  19-9/3.45/1.18/269

10. CC Sabathia – When you see his ERA went up in 2009 compared to 2008, it’s easy to say he couldn’t handle The Jetstream.  Alas, you’re wrong, doode.  He had a 3.17 ERA at home compared to 3.53 on the road.  It’s all about the home cooking (and eating).  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  18-7/3.20/1.10/200, Final Numbers:  19-8/3.37/1.15/197

11. Josh Johnson – Throw out his final start of the season when he may or may not have been suffering from an illness and his ERA would’ve been 3.03.  BTW, don’t you love how ESPN and Yahoo put a guy’s condition in parenthesis in their player card news?  I wish everyone had player cards.  “Last night, Grey grabbed a burger (hungry) then tried to have sex with his girlfriend (headache).”  Preseason Rank #39, 2009 Projections:  13-6/3.75/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  15-5/3.23/1.16/191

12. Matt Cain – Cain was a strange case for me.  (Prepare yourselves for the longest run-on sentence in history.  You may need an oxygen mask.)  I loved Cain coming into the season, ended up drafting him in a few leagues, he got off to an incredible start, I wrote repeatedly on the blog about how his numbers were supposed to regress, so no one would trade for him in any of my leagues because of what I wrote or because they read something similar elsewhere, the more I tried to trade him the better he pitched, then I stopped trying to trade him and he finally regressed in September (5.22 ERA).  Preseason Rank #32, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.35/1.26/200, Final Numbers:  14-8/2.89/1.18/171

13. Jair Jurrjens – Not that I’m against Jar-Jar, but his K-rate does bore me a bit.  Preseason Rank #48, 2009 Projections:  12-8/3.75/1.35/150, Final Numbers:  14-10/2.60/1.21/152

14. Jon Lester – He had the tale of two seasons.  It (June on) was the best of times, it (April/May) was the worst of times…  If you jumped on his coattails in June when I advised you to, you did pretty good.  Preseason Rank #27, 2009 Projections:  15-7/4.00/1.30/150, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.41/1.23/225

15. Wandy Rodriguez – Hmm… What’s this, snitches? Yup.  Preseason Rank #42, 2009 Projections:  10-7/3.75/1.30/160, Final Numbers:  14-12/3.02/1.24/193

16. Ted Lilly – I avoided Lilly in all of my drafts to my detriment.  But, honestly, when you have F-Her, Haren, Cain, Wainwright, Wandy and Wolf in 90% of your starting spots on your teams, you’re doing okay.  I’ll repeat it ad nauseam in the preseason, but you don’t have to draft pitching early to compete.  The only league I drafted a top pitcher, I took Peavy.  And we know how that worked out.  Preseason Rank #44, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.30/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.10/1.06/151

17. Randy Wolf – In a 15 team league (that’s deep, ya’ll), I grabbed Wolf off of waivers.  In my 16 team league, I took Wolf in one of my last picks.  Chances are Wolf was not drafted in your leagues, which makes me think Wolf was one of the best value pitching picks off of waivers.  I like Wolf and Wolf Like Me, TV on the Radio.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-7/3.23/1.10/160

18. Josh Beckett – My preseason AL Cy Young pick didn’t fair that terrible, but he’s definitely not winning the award.  The odd thing is my preseason predictions for his numbers weren’t very far off.  Just turned out there were a lot of great pitchers in 2009.  As Jessica Shaw would say, steroids out, pitching and speed in.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  16-10/3.75/1.20/175, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.86/1.19/199

19. Ubaldo Jimenez – Chances are if you owned Ubaldo, you picked him up sometime in May or June after his 7.58 ERA April.  So his numbers are even sweeter in your Active stats.  Preseason Rank #49, 2009 Projections:  10-8/4.20/1.40/165, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.47/1.23/198

20. Cliff Lee – The Adverb moved to the NL and his ERA went up.  Weird!  Guess it’s because the Phillies play in a stadium smaller than a jai lai fronton.  Somewhere in Aruba, J.P. Ricciardi dials his phone.  “Hey, Halladay… You’re welcome!”  Preseason Rank #17, 2009 Projections:  15-10/3.75/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  14-13/3.22/1.24/181