1) The fantasy baseball expectations of Matt Wieters last year were ridiculous – nothing short of Piazza’s 1993 rookie year (.318/81/35/112) would’ve satisifed them.  A year later, expectations are in check and our CHONE/ZiPS-based projection systems have him with a modest line of:  .286/55 R /14 HR /63 RBI.  Do you think he’ll surpass any of those levels and, if so, by how much?

I think those expectations are pretty spot-on, as I have him projected to hit .287/.351/.455 right now. The RBI and R has a lot to do with where he hits in the batting order, which I’m not sure of.  I do think he has a chance to break out, but am not really looking for that to happen for at least another year. Adjusting to hitting major league pitching is hard – especially when one also has to adjust to catching major league pitching

2) The Orioles have a number of starting pitcher prospects.  Rank the following in order based on your 2010 expectations:  Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman.

Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman, Berken. I think Matusz can be an above average starting pitcher already; Bergesen around average; Tillman and Berken more of like 4/5 starters, with the latter maybe seeing some time in the bullpen as well (and the former have the much higher ceiling).

3) Which of the Orioles outfielders will have the best year at the plate: Nick (Sparkakis!) Markakis, Adam Jones, or Nolan Reimold?

Markakis. He’s the only one who I think can hit .300, put up a .380 OBP, and slug close to .500. I don’t think Jones or Reimold will get to any of those marks in 2010 – and especially not all three.

4) Brian Roberts’ SB totals have gone from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past 3 years.  Over/under 30 SBs in 2010?

I’ll take under 30, especially since he already has missed some time this spring with back issues. Roberts is getting into his mid 30s, so while he should still be able to steal quite a few bases just based on smart baserunning, I don’t think his speed will stay top notch for that much longer.

5) Since you follow the Orioles, we assume you live in the Baltimore area and, thus, must have watched ‘The Wire’.  So, which Wire character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?  (personality vs. physical)  If you haven’t seen the Wire, please explain yourself.

I do live in Baltimore, and I have seen The Wire, but only the first season (and a couple episodes of the second). It was a good show – and I can definitely tell why people consider it one of the best TV shows of all time – but it just didn’t grab me that strongly. I’m hoping to come back to it at some point. I guess in light of that, I can’t really answer the question well. I think Angelos has finally allowed the baseball people to be in charge, which is for the best.

Rudy:  Sheeeeeeeettt, I would’ve thought all Baltimoretonians were required to watch The Wire and all Barry Levinson + Jon Waters movies.  The easy answer to “Which ‘The Wire’ character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?” is The Greek from Season 2 as he 1) also owns a big organization, 2) works best when he keeps a low profile and let’s lieutenants take care of the day-to-day and 3) is of Greek descent (Angelos is Greek-American).  Alternatives answers include Mayor Clarence Royce (profited off civil service – Angelos made his money in class-action suits – and ran the city into the ground), Police Commissioner Ervin Burrell (misran the Police Department and put too much faith in bad lieutentants like Deputy Rawls), and drug kingpin Avon Barksdale (gets a little too overexcited when someone disrespects him by encroaching on his territory *cough* Washington Senators *cough*)

Jose Reyes – As you probably know by now, Reyes is going to miss 2 to 8 weeks with a wonky thyroid.  He’ll likely begin the year on the 15-day DL.  Which is not the same as being on the DL for the entire year.  Hopefully.  I said this about the whole Reyes thyroid issue when it happened.  I’ve also updated my top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball, top 100 and top 300 rankings.  Right now, I have Berkman in a Cousteau-deep league and Reyes in a league with no bench.  If you need me, I’ll be on the roof of my building waiting for someone to push me.  Since this isn’t a leg issue, I wouldn’t turn down Reyes if he fell to me in the 4th round.

Carlos Beltran – Some people wondered if the Mets could keep their injury news streak alive in 2010.  So far, so good, huh?  Beltran says he should be ready to start rehab games in April, which would put him on a timetable to return to the Mets towards the end of April.  He’s not a safe pick, but I’d start considering him around the 100th overall pick.  Doubt his steals return to their previous glory, but he could be the three-hole hitter for the majority of the season and get 20+ homers.

Brandon Lyon – Faced live hitters today for the fist time.  I’m assuming those live hitters were happy.  Lyon should be ready in time for the start of the season.  I still think he’s the guy the Astros turn to to close out most games.  Lindstrom should still be owned for those vulturing and handcuffing.

Gaby Sanchez – Inside track on the 1st base job.  He’s my backup for Berkman.  Wish us well.

Brian Roberts – Taking pain meds… Aw, Sickie Roberts.  I haven’t owned Roberts in many years because I thought he was overrated, but I was starting to come around on him.  Now that he’s still dealing with a herniated disc, maybe I’ll go back to my original stance.  Hey, his herniated disc is making me boomerang! (<–Australian humor)

Ian Stewart – For those drinking every time I mention Stewart, keep your buzz going.

Adrian Beltre – If he stays healthy, he’ll outproduce Aramis Ramirez.

Chris Davis – May not have 3rd base eligibility in your league (11 games last year).  If he does have the eligibility, there’s a chance he could be a bargain basement Mark Reynolds. (Yes, last year I said Mark Reynolds was a bargain basement Chris Davis.  Weird!)

Chase Headley – He’s a career .301/.368/.437 hitter in 492 ABs.  Oh, that’s in away games.  Yeah, thanks, Petco!  So he’s not going to be last round value that turns into a top 20 hitter, but he could sneak into the top 12 third basemen overall.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He was actually decent away from Petco in his career.  Then again, he’s moving to another pitchers’ park.  Be hard for me to own Kouzmanoff in a 12 team league… In a 14 team league, Kouz wouldn’t be terrible.  I’d expect a line of 60/24/80/.260.  Nothing spectacular, but in a deep enough league there’s value there.  So, maybe mess with The ‘Noff!

Brandon Wood – Honestly, I won’t believe he has the starting job until I see it.  I have the feeling Scioscia’s spinning bottle is going to stop on Aybar or Izturis’s name to start at 3rd base at least 3 times a week.  It’ll be the Figgy Duets.

1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on DL and that’s fine cause then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Glass Chipper on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as Chipper nurses his hammy.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Ellsbury or Crawford or Pierre et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Ellsbury one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Juan Rivera’s match-ups this week.  As Frida used to say, hasta luego, Rivera.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors and sense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.

Nick Massett – Guy has the goods: everything you look for in RP. To name a few: decent control, great K’s, low BA against. My breakout guy for holds.

Todd Coffey – Not a huge K threat, decent peripherals, but when it comes down to it, what’s better than a barrel chested dude sprinting in from the pen?

LaTroy Hawkins – Personally, I’m not a huge fan of this guy. Two capital letters in your first name is just dumb: it’s like cake with no icing. Will be decent for sleeper ‘pen in the “land of hops and ales.”

Sergio Romo -  Flame thrower, awesome K/9.  Great deep league help for peripheral help. Has future closer potential. Will pitch behind Wilson and in front of…

Jeremy Affeldt – Dual winner of the Arthur Rhodes Trophy last year — minuscule numbers. Should be top 5 in holds again this year.

Pete Moylan -  Another year removed from TJ surgery. Pitched great in a reduced role last year. Expect his walk rate to fall.

Takashi Saito – Pitched great in AL last year. Should repeat nicely in front of Wags.  Great K, ERA, and WHIP potential.

Pedro Feliciano – Sounds like a singer and pitches like a lefty.  Great ratios and a ton of appearances.  Great “one and done” guy for the oft-injured Mets.  Good source of snipe wins.

Ryoti Igarashi – Great numbers in Japan. Will fool guys with early delivery. Reminds me a lot of Saito.  Owns his own “The Igarashi Driving Academy.”

Jason Motte – Blew his chance to close last year. Great stuff — definitely the closer moving forward. The Lou is always top 5 for holds as an organization.   Go bet it — $2 bucks on Kryptonite.

Trevor Miller – Guy is a hundred and 12 years old, and gets a 2 yr deal.  I want to come back as a lefty reliever. Tiny numbers. Another “LaRussa” go-to guy.

Mike Adams – Great guy for almost all formats.  Tiny numbers add up to big help in ERA and WHIP. Awesome across the board — another ‘pen you can rely on.

Luke Gregerson – Snuck up on everyone last year. Great K potential again (93k’s in 75 inn). Yeah, I had to look that up to. Bud’s go-to righty in front of “The Heath Bar.”

George Sherrill – Torre rides success out of the bullpen — he lives by it. Not a lot of K’s, and tends to get sketchy with men on.  Great sleeper in deeper formats for 20 holds/ 10 save season.

Hong-Chih Kuo – Awesome down the stretch, great K’s and low ERA. It’s why we all drafted him in the beginning of the year only to drop him and then watch someone else pick him up. Graduate of “Igarashi Driving Academy.”

Ramon Troncoso – Wore down by mid-year, which is what Torre does to young RP.  Needs to work on the walks.  Win “sniper” if I ever have seen one — think Aceves 2009.

Brian Bruney – Always gets the hype wherever he goes.  Has the goods, but needs to keep his wits when pitching. Great stuff — everything required to be a success in the setup for the Senators, uh, Nationals.

Manny Corpas – Another guy that can’t find his role. Closes out games horribly, but sets up great.  Needs to stay healthy and the Rocks will benefit.

Juan Gutierrez – Will be closing by A.S break — bank on it. Great K potential. Should be another hold/save contributor.  My sleeper pick late in drafts for cheap saves.

Arthur Rhodes – You can’t have a MR discussion without the Godfather. He blows up like Apollonia in the playoffs, but Cincy isn’t invited to those.

Others to consider: John Grabow, Aaron Heilman, Dan Meyer, Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom, Ryan Madson and Danys Baez.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say Joe Mauer snuck into a 21 and under club with Joe Jonas’s ID and took your baby’s mama home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Mauer and let others overspend on him.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Lincecum.  You think Kinsler’s overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want Matt Capps and every auction value article you’ve read says he’s worth $2 and the bidding’s just gone to $3, go to $4 if you need a closer.  It’s your team; you need certain guys whether they’re overpriced or not.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you might want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out, say, Dexter Fowler for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Fowler for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At your draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.  In fact, dress like him for your draft.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Doumit, Iannetta, Dotel, Capps or whoever is going to be drafted.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $12 on Furcal and you get him for $13, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Furcal after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get McLouth, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [91 – 71] NL Central
AAA: [77 – 67] Pacific Coast League
AA: [71 – 69] Texas League
A+: [61 – 77] Florida State League
A: [61 – 78] Midwest League
A(ss): [37 – 39] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [37 – 30] Appalachian League
R: [25 – 31] Gulf Coast League

The Run Down
The Cardinals 2010 ranking isn’t looking pretty (#29) and here is why. Colby Rasmus graduated and they traded their numbers 2,3,4,6,28, and 29 ranked prospects this year, not to mention releasing their number 23 ranked prospect (who was picked up off the waivers by Pittsburgh). Here is the breakdown of what happened:

• Received Matt Holliday (OAK) for (#2 3B) Brett Wallace, (#6 RHP) Clayton Mortensen, (#28 OF) Shane Peterson and $1.5 Million
• Received Mark DeRosa (CLE) for (#3 RHP)Chris Perez and a PTBNL (#4 RHP Jess Todd)
• Received Julio Lugo (BOS) for Chris Duncan and cash
• Received Khalil Greene (SD) for (#29 RHP) Luke Gregerson
• Released (#23 RHP) Tyler Herron

Good thing they resigned Holliday otherwise that would have been one of the largest rental seasons for an entire organization since they lost DeRosa and Greene. I won’t rate the trades, but I will say they lost a gratuitous amount of talent. Grey just mentioned David Freese and what kind of value he may possess, thus I will withhold my comments. Furthermore, the fifth rotation spot is worth watching as the winner may hold more value for you playing in deeper leagues (Jaime Garcia versus Ben Jukich versus P.J. Walters versus Kyle McClellan). Personally, I like Garcia and Jukich. With Spring Training underway, hopefully we (Razzball readers) will start to see some of these players mentioned vying for a 25 man roster spot. Without any further ado, the Cardinals Minor League Review:

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
Pitchers – Gary Daley; Scott Gorgen; Mike Parisi; Adam Reifer
Hitters – (C) Bryan Anderson; (2B) Daniel Descalso; (OF) Tyler Henley; (OF) Daryl Jones

Graduating Prospects
#1 (OF) Colby Rasmus; #8 (RHP) Jason Motte; #14 (RHP) Mitchell Boggs

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#26 Allen Craig | 1B-LF-3B | AAA | 24 | .322/.374/.547 | 472 AB | 53 XBH | 26 HR | .225 ISO | 95:37 K:BB | .358 BABIP | 44.5 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 36.6 FB%
With Pujols clogging first base for the rest of his career (Yes, I am that sure he’ll remain a Card for life.), Craig isn’t going to get many options to play first base beyond the Pacific Coast League. All the scouting reports mentioned that he’ll probably stay in left field but first base is his best defensive position. His defense is average in the outfield where his below average speed and arm strength are noticeable. However, if Holliday wasn’t resigned, Craig may have been given multiple opportunities to start in the majors this year. Offensively, Craig has the skills to hit between .280 to .300 at the major league level with 20 to 25 homers. His poor strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn’t necessarily tell how well he controls the zone, yet, this is the culprit for predicting a lower average at the major league level – plus the inflated stat line from the PCL and his high batting average on balls in play (.358). Ranked as the seventh best prospect in the Cards system for 2010, Craig could provide some midseason help off the bench if he continues to play well to start the season. He could also be used as trade bait as the season progresses. He’ll make his major league debut sometime in this season. Just remember, it’s his bat that is going to get him to the majors to stay.

#16 Tyler Greene | SS | AAA | 25 | .291/.369/.482 | 340 AB | 30 XBH | 15 HR | .171 ISO | 31/3 SB/CS | 86:38 K:BB | .354 BABIP | 44.4 GB%| 21.8 LD% | 33.8 FB%
An injury to his kneecap in 2007 derailed much of his confidence and speed as this was the most steals since 2006 when he was at Single-A and High-A. This was easily his best year as a pro and it happened to come while playing in the PCL. I am hesitant to claim he is going to be much more than a utility fielder (supported by the scouting reports). He is vying for that role this spring. His greatest assets is his speed and multiple positions he is able to play. His strike zone judgment is Delmon Young-like and defense is spotty at short. If given a full time gig, you’d be looking at a .260 hitter at best with 30 to 35 steals. Great for fantasy purposes as he looks like Everth Cabrera but he is four years Cabrera’s senior. With the recent signing of Felipe Lopez, look for Greene to be back at Triple-A.

Pitchers
#13 Jaime Garcia | LHP | R/A+/AAA | 23 | 9.8 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 37 2/3 IP | 2.87 ERA | 3.69 FIP | 1.04 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | 6 H/9 | .212 BABIP | 62.4 GB% | 6.4 LD% | 24 FB%
Following two straight seasons (2007 and 2008) of ending with elbow problems, Garcia went under the knife of Dr. Freeze in 2008 and returned for the end of the 2009. Since his 2009 season is such a small sample, here is his career line:

8.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 402 IP | 3.49 ERA | 3.71 FIP | 1.25 WHIP | .6 HR/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .308 BABIP | 58.7 GB% | 14. LD% | 23.4 FB%

Note the groundball ratio (slightly over two-to-one) and the good strikeout rates. He has an 88 to 92 mph fastball with a devastating curve and a new cutter he developed while rehabbing. The favorite to win the fifth rotation sport, Garcia still has to prove he is durable enough to pitch a full season. Further, his control is inconsistent. Don’t be surprised to see the Cards place him at Triple-A for a couple of months and call him up at the end of May. Think of J.A. Happ (but a groundball pitcher instead) and Randy Wells (without the control) for his expectations for 2010. While everyone is watching Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Brain Matusz, Neftali Feliz, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman and Madison Bumgarner, keep an eye on Jaime Garcia. With Dave Duncan as his coach and the revival of Joel Pinero’s career via extreme groundball splits, Garcia could provide excellent value in 2010.

Ben Jukich | LHP | AAA | 26 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 IP | 4.10 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | .306 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 26.9 FB% (career 53.6 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 27.9 FB% | .6 HR/9)
Jukich had a great year, but with better defense (as noted by Bryan Smith from FanGraphs) and his great career ground ball ratios (53.6%) he’ll perform better than expected. He is rather old and his prospect status is non-existent. His fantasy prospects aren’t much different, but each year a ground ball pitcher can come up and surprise (Matt Palmer had a few good outings, Scott Feldman had a great year relying on a sinking 2-seam fastball, etc). I accidentally placed him in the Cincinnati Reds Minor League Review, however, with the Cardinals he is vying for the fifth rotation spot with Jaime Garcia and P.J. Walters. Read Garcia’s ending sentences about Dave Duncan for what Jukich could provide in 2010.

#17 P.J. Walters | RHP | AAA | 24 | 8.4 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 121 IP | 4.54 ERA | 3.58 FIP | 1.42 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 9.5 H/9 | .348 BABIP | 49 GB% | 18 LD% | 27.9 FB%
Walters is a finesse pitcher with a deceptive changeup and an 88 to 91 mph fastball. He saw 16 innings of the major league last year too. He isn’t sexy and doesn’t have the skills to overpower hitters at the major league level. His control and durability are better than Garcia’s. However, his upside is nowhere near Garcia’s. Walters had a high batting average on balls in play (.348), which inflated some of his peripherals (ERA and WHIP). With a more normal BABIP, Walter’s could provide some nice fifth starter value for the Cards. His upside is Aaron Cook. Nothing stellar, but serviceable.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Tyler Henley | RF | AA | 24 | .303/.367/.482 | 423 AB | 47 XBH | 13 HR | .179 ISO | 9/4 SB/CS | 64:40 K:BB (15.1 K% | 8.5 BB%) | .312 BABIP
Invited to spring training and ranked number 18 in the current Baseball America Handbook (non-roster invite), I am not sure why he doesn’t have extended stats at Minor League Splits but he doesn’t. Oh well. Henley projects as a fourth outfielder with good contact skills and strike zone judgment, solid but not great defense and gap power. The Cards have other high ceiling outfield prospects in their system and Henley happens to be the lowest ceiling but most predictable. If there are several injuries to the outfield to the major league club, Henley may be the one called upon to cover the open spot.

#25 Steven Hill | C-1B | AA | 24 | .282/.333/.470 | 464 AB | 47 XBH | 19 HR | .168 ISO | 106:36 K:BB | .326 BABIP | 41.9 GB% | 17.5 LD% | 40.3 FB%
Defensively, he is a liability and his future as a catcher seems to be closing. Swing for the fences only works for so long in the minors before the pitchers catch on. The reason I mention him is that his defense could improve and natural power is difficult to teach. Let’s watch how the 2010 season unfolds for him. If things go well, he could be a sleeper candidate in 2011.

Pitchers
Eduardo Sanchez | RHP | A+/AA | 20 | 9.8 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 75 IP | 2.28 ERA | 3.49 FIP | .92 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | 5.3 H/9 | .234 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 30.2 FB%
He was aided by an extremely low BABIP (.234) and an even lower one at High-A (.185). Mainly a closer or late inning setup man, Sanchez could provide a mid season boost to a rather uninteresting bullpen for the Cards. He has a 94 to 97 mph fastball and a good slider. Touted as the next closer (over Motte) for the Cardinals because he is actually able to control his pitches. He has the makings of a great closer or reliever with ability to blow his pitches past the batters and keep the ball on the ground (51.3 GB%). For those MR. B’s out there, Sanchez may help sooner rather than later. Might be a midseason call up as he needs to work on his game a little more.

#15 Lance Lynn | RHP | AA | 22 | 7 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 126 1/3 IP | 2.92 ERA | 3.79 FIP | 1.33 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .307 BABIP | 47.9 FB% | 16.6 LD% | 31.1 FB%
Possesses an 89 to 92 mph sinking fastball and a solid slider, curveball, and changeup. An inning eater type pitcher, Lynn looks poised for a good season in 2010. If that happens, 2011 may be when he makes his MLB debut.

With that spew of dystopian philosophy out of the way, welcome to my 2^nd annual attempt to highlight the riskiest pitcher propositions for fantasy baseball.  (For reference, here is a link to our 2009 Top 20 Risky Pitchers.)  For the purposes of this post, consider ‘risky’ to be a “greater chance than average that they have a significant drop in their skills and/or miss over a 1/3 of the season.”  So I’m not going to cherry pick ‘lucky’ 2009 starters like J.A. Happ whose ERA was significantly lower thanks to unsustainable luck in terms of batted balls finding fielder gloves and fly balls not finding the mitts of spectators.

My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness is elaborated on in this post.  In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:

• Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill.  A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season.  A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc.  Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
  • Criteria #1:  Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
  • Criteria #2:  Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)

• Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups.  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia).  But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.
  • Criteria #3:  Threw 15+% sliders

Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:

• wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
• FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA.  xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
• Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values.  See here for more info.  You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates in the ‘2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings’ button in the top menu.

One caveat before I move on to the picks.  ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’  Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 40% chance (based on 2004-2009) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS).  So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead.  Just try to avoid drafting more than one….

#1 – Brett Anderson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,816 (+2,816)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  32%

Anderson is an attractive late-round flier in 2010 after a rookie campaign where the A’s lefty threw 175 IP with a 4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP and 150 Ks.  His name also has a hint o’ Scandinavia and I think that boosts his attractiveness subconsciously. (C’mon, how much more psyched would you be if your blind date’s name was Britt Andersson vs. Marcia Buerhrle?)

So why is he #1 on the list?  He hits the criteria trifecta and he hits them hard.  Of the 72 pitchers to throw 2,700 MLB pitches last year, only Ryan Dempster (34%) threw a higher percentage of sliders.  Even more troubling, his slider is by far his most effective pitch so throwing less of it will hurt his performance – his wSL% of 22.2 runs above average was the highest in the majors (Greinke and Dempster were tied at #2 amongst starters) while his wFB% of -8.1 was less than Barry Zito.

If you can get him cheap, enjoy what you can out of his season.  Just don’t be surprised if he misses more time than bats next year.

#2 – Ross Ohlendorf

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,068 -> 2,693 (+1,625)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  24%

Ross Ohlendorf was a pleasant surprise in 2009 for those in deep  leagues, managing 11 wins with a 3.92 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his first full season as a starting pitcher.  While his so-so K rate, below-so-so team, and Swollen Dwarf-rhyming last name aren’t helping his ADP, it’s just as troubling that his oft-thrown slider was his only above-average pitch in 2009.  Translation:  Little upside, lotta downside, leave him aside.

#3 – Kevin Correia

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,891 -> 3,172 (+1,281)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  30%

Petco : ERA is equal to:

a)      Baco : Salad

b)      Balco : HRs

c)      Maaco: Brakes

d)     Yoko : Oh no Beatles!

e)     All of the above

The correct answer is E.  Smart deep-league drafters took a flier on this converted reliever once it was confirmed he’d be part of San Diego’s 2009 scrap heap of a pitching staff – aka a Hodgepadre.   12 Wins / 3.91 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 142 Ks earned Correia the 43^rd most valuable SP according to our 2009 Point Shares.

The problem?  While Correia doesn’t qualify as a ‘young pitcher,’ it was still by far his highest yearly pitch count in the majors.  Worse, he pitched like he was still a reliever with 30% sliders (and another 11% curve balls).  You know what Shin Soo-Choo and I have in common?  We aren’t going anywhere near Correia anytime in the next year or so….

#4– Joba Chamberlain

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,711 -> 2,733 (+1,022)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  22%

I know….Joba has more warning signs than a cigarette pack – 1.55 WHIP last year, declining fastball speed, starter vs. reliever status, his mom, his surname-inherited guilt for appeasing Hitler’s pre-WWII Central Europe land grabs.

As a nominal Yankee fan, I’d send him to the bullpen anyway.   But the fact that his fastball was crushed last year (-21 wFB) while his slider was solid (+7.5) is just one more reason to do it.

Pass on him as a starter.  Pick him up on waivers if he shows promise again as a set-up guy.

#5 – Randy Wells

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,543 (+2,543)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  27%

Despite his name being a hybrid of the tallest and plumpest lefties of recent times, the normally-proportioned Cubs righty Randy Wells – along with J.A. Happ – was one of the biggest rookie pitching surprises in 2009.  Unless, of course, you foresaw a 3.05 ERA / 1.28 WHIP over 165.1 IP from a pitcher who couldn’t manage a sub-4.00 ERA in three years @ the AAA Iowa Cubs.

While the 3.05 ERA is a bit of a mirage, his FIP of 3.88 and xFIP of 4.24 indicate that he could be a more than serviceable 4th/5th SP in mixed leagues.

But it’s the same story as with most of the above – he threw a lot of sliders and it’s his only above average pitch (#4 in wSL at 19.7 runs above average).  He shouldn’t prove too hard to avoid in mixed leagues but in NL-only – I’d cut his value in half (I have him at $6 so cut that down to $3).

#6 – Adam Wainwright

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,951 -> 3,614 (+1,633)
2009 was first year > 2500+ pitches:  No.
Slider %: 19%

#7 – Chris Carpenter

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  280 -> 2,670 (+2,462)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  28%

Dave Duncan (and Tony La Russa) have a reputation for rehabilitating overlooked pitchers – e.g., Dave Stewart, Kent Bottenfield, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero.  Is it possible that they might also deserve a reputation for debilitating pitchers to squeeze as much value out of them?

Case in point:  Adam Wainwright was one of the top 4 pitchers in the NL last year.  His 3,614 pitchers were 3^rd in the majors behind Verlander (3,937) and F-Her (3,632).  Sabathia was #4 at 3,587.  Besides being built a tad scrawnier than those three, Wainwright also was the only one who hadn’t thrown 3,000 pitches the year before (only 1,951 after a random finger injury).   He also threw WAY more breaking pitches than anyone in 2009 – his 1,561 breaking pitches were 176 more than any other pitcher in the majors.  Who was 2^nd in the most breaking pitchers?  None other than Chris Carpenter.

There is no doubt that Wainwright’s 19% Slider / 24 % Curve and Carpenter’s 28% Slider / 24% Curve helped the 2009 Cards (and fantasy owners).   For Wainwright, he had the 5^th most effective slider and 2^nd most effective curve amongst starters (Carpenter – 8^th and 17^th respectively).  His fastball was below average in effectiveness (Carpenter’s was actually the 5^th most effective).

Will there be a lingering effect in 2010 for both pitchers?  Tough to say.  But it makes me wary enough to not want either as one of the top 20 pitchers on my mixed leagues draftboard.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

#8 – Jason Hammel

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,315 -> 2,771 (+1,456)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  14.9%

The longtime, long-in-the-tooth (turned 27 in September) Rays prospect found greener pastures in Colorado where his 4.33 ERA / 1.39 WHIP masked some positive underlying skills – a 3.71 FIP driven up by a .337 BABIP.  In these post-humidor times when a ‘Rockie pitcher’ is no longer an automatic pun, Hammel has some value in deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues (est. $3 based on projections).

On the negative side, he was a reliever for all of 2008 and thus saw a big boost in total pitches.  And despite having a 92 MPH FB, his slider (14.9% of pitches) and curveball (15.6% of pitches) are his most effective pitches (the curve much more than the slider).  So he’s not too much ’safer’ to hit his projections than the other pitchers mentioned above – I’d bid $1 in an NL-only league and hope you get at least a solid half out of him.

#9 – Jeff Niemann

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  279-> 2,890 (+2,611)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Now we’re getting to the level where the risk factor isn’t quite as high.  Niemann – or J-Nie to admiring Aerosmith fans – was the guy who won the Rays 5th spot over Hammel.  He made the Rays brass look good with a 13-6 season with a 3.94 ERA (4.07 FIP).  While he threw 2 less Ks per 9 IP vs. the minors (6.23 vs. 8+), it was at least solid.  And while he saw a big increase in MLB pitches, he did pitch 133 innings in AAA during 2008.

His Point Share value is below draftable in mixed leagues but this is being driven by a 148 IP estimate from Baseball Prospectus – a 32 IP drop from 2009.

This is actually an odd case where I’d say he’s worth more than his mixed-league Point Shares BUT is still not worth as much as he should be given his peripherals.  How’s that for double talk (talk)?    But in AL leagues, don’t get carried away in bidding for him.  I have him at $9 for AL 12 team – I’d probably cut that down to $3 and I’d be happy taking a chance on him at that level.

#10 – Gavin Floyd

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,235 -> 2,981 (-254)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The first returnee from last year!  Floyd not only maintained his 2008 performance level – he had a huge improvement in xFIP (from 4.56 to 3.69) and improved his K rate from 6.32 to 7.60.

And he went one step further by increasing the very breaking ball rate that I scoffed at as unsustainable – going from 39.2% breaking balls (20.6% Slider, 18.6% Curve) to 45.3% (26.9% Slider, 18.4% Curve).

I have two things to say to Gavin Floyd:  1) You win Round #1 and  2) Good luck winning Round #2.

I’m not touching this guy in any draft I participate in until he reads the memo that his current pitch mix is better suited for Wiffle Ball than MLB.

#11 – Ryan Dempster

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,341 -> 3,159 (-182)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  34%

The second returnee from last year!  Dempster was able to maintain his performance from 2008 in the face of my disbelief.  Very impressive as he had pitched relief for a couple of years prior to returning to starting in 2008.  That would seem to be a tough jump to make and he’s done it as well as one could.

I’m just not buying any pitcher who throws as many sliders as Dempster (34%).  It’s by far his best pitch (wSL of 20.1 vs. wFB of -10.1) and his fastball has lost steam over the past 3 years (92.0, 91.1, 90.6).

So be careful before you Dempster dive….

#12 – Jorge de la Rosa

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,256 -> 3,050 (+794)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  15%

George of the Rose is the last ‘trifecta’ and the one I think is least risky.  De La Rosa should be on fantasy radars after a 16 Win / 193 K (9.39 K/IP) year in 2009 after a promising 2008 season where he threw 128 Ks in 130 IP.

While he qualifies for both pitch-related criteria, it’s not by much.  He’s had 2,152 and 2,256 pitches in the two years prior so the 3,050 pitch year in 2009 shouldn’t be that big of a factor.

He also average 93.3 MPH on his fastball in 2009 and his most effective pitch was his changeup which he threw 17% of the time.

But he does still hit all three criteria so I’m hesitant to recommend him at projected value in mixed or NL-only.  If he comes cheap, grab him.  Otherwise, pass.

#13 – Max Scherzer

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  929 -> 3,073 (+2,144)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Scherzer didn’t quite deliver on the hype last year but 170 IP of decent ERA (4.12) and great Ks (174 Ks) isn’t bad.

Moving out of the NL West to the AL Central doesn’t portend to be a boon for Scherzer’s performance.

But he’s on this list for that pitch jump (somewhat mitigated by 100 IP in the minors in 2008) and coming off his first full season as an MLB starting pitcher.  Anecdotally, he also worries me because he seemed to throw 100 pitch / 5 inning games way too often last year.  Those labored innings would seem to be more wear on the arm.

I’ll be shying away from him but wouldn’t rule him out completely – but I wouldn’t pair him with anyone else on this list.

#14 – Ricky Romero

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,989 (+2,989)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  13%

Similar to Randy Wells, Romero was not considered a top prospect but found unexpected success with a 13 win season, 4.30 ERA, and decent K/rate (7.13).  A higher than average BABIP (.325) as well as a bad BB rate (3.99 per 9/IP) crushed his WHIP (1.55).

My CHONE/ZiPS-derived projections of a 4.92 ERA / 1.58 WHIP would seemingly keep him off most draft boards.  Follow that instinct.

#15 – Joel Pineiro

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,227 -> 2,954 (+727)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  12%

Talk about an efficient pitcher.  Pineiro threw over 100 less pitches (2,954 vs. 3,050) than Scherzer in 44 less innings (214 vs. 170).  No wonder he wants his first name pronounced like Superman’s real name!

So while 214 IP for an SP who hadn’t reached 150 IP since 2006 is less than ideal, it’s mitigated by his pitch count efficiency.  And his relatively moderate use of breaking pitches (12 % sliders / 10% curveballs) – especially compared to teammates Wainwright and Carpenter – is not very troubling.  In fact, based on the previous analysis, an experienced pitcher with a +700 pitch jump really is no likelier to break down than the average pitcher.

I just put him on the list because his upside is so ridiculously low given his 4.42 K rate that I don’t want to risk the chance that Duncan and La Russa squeezed all the usefulness out of him.  If you just want Wins late in the draft (and don’t care about K’s), there are safer options like Mark Buehrle.

#16 – Edwin Jackson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,056 -> 3,466 (+410)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The pitching-rich Rays decided to quit while they were ahead with Edwin Jackson in 2008 and sent him to the Tigers for a Gabe Gross-esque Matt Joyce.  Not one of the better Rays trades as the Tigers were able to flip him in a deal that brought back a much better prospect in Scherzer.

To be fair to the Rays, Jackson’s 2008 line of 5.30 K/9 and 3.78 K/9 was atrocious.  To be fair to Edwin, he improved on both in 2009 with a 6.77 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.  In the process, his ERA went down from 4.42 to 3.62 (with similar FIP decreases).

Some of the reason for this improved performance was throwing more sliders.  His wSL the past two years is 18.8 and 17.7 runs above average where his fastaball – despite coming in at 94.5 MPH – is at -13.4 and -9.1.  Translation – he throws a hittable fastball and the slider is his key to success.

The move to the NL West should help him but it might be asking too much for him to put in a full year after the high total pitch count + high slider count.

#17 – Scott Feldman

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,481 -> 3,179 (+698)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  2%

Texas finally found the second coming of Rick Helling – an average SP that can pitch enough IP in Texas to stockpile some wins.  17 wins?!  AJ Burnett only managed 13 wins for the Yanks and Feldman gets 17?!

Feldman’s 4.08 ERA / 1.28 WHIP last year had its share of luck (.275 BABIP – 4.31 FIP) and he doesn’t have good K (5.36 K/9) or BB (3.08 BB/9) rates.  So it’s doubtful that he’ll be getting much attention in 2010 for mixed leagues.

The part that worries me about him is that his pitch mix is so odd.  44% FB / 33% Cutter / 15% Curve.  He threw the cutter at an average of 90.5 MPH last year – yelling Hamotzi after each one to the amusement of Ian Kinsler and befuddlement of everyone else.  That cutter speed is impressive and, not surprisingly, he had a lot of success with it (wCT of 25.9).  The only starting RHPs throwing a higher % of cutters are Brian Bannister (52%) and Roy Halladay (42%).  Bannister throws it at 87.2 MPH.  Halladay throws it at 91.2 MPH.  Esteban Loaiza dominated for a year with a 90+ MPH cutter before plummeting to 85-86 MPH and losing his effectiveness.  Lefties Jim Abbott and Steve Avery saw early success fade away as they lost velocity on their cutter.

Net-net, when a pitcher’s effectiveness is hinged so much to a pitch that has proven to be difficult to sustain at the necessary velocity, it’s risky.

#18 – Ricky Nolasco

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,243 -> 3,035 (-208)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Mssrs. Floyd and Dempster, Ricky Nolasco proved me wrong last year by putting together a successful season with one of the most anomalous 5.00+ ERAs ever.  How does one manage a 5.00 ERA and still manage more than a K per inning (9.49 per 9 IP) and only 2.14 BB per 9 IP?  You need the 3rd worst BABIP (.336) and the worst left on base (LOB) percentage (61%).  If he pitches in 2010 anywhere close to as well as he did in 2009, you’re looking at a top 20 pitcher.

All that said, Nolasco scares the hell out of me.  He threw a ton of breaking pitches in 2008 (which was why he was near the top of my 2009 risky pitcher list) and he did the same in 2009 – except he made it worse by throwing a lot more sliders (15 to 25%) than curveballs (25 to 15%).  Maybe he’s got a bionic arm and can throw that many breaking pitches year after year.   But I’d only draft him if you can get him several rounds after his ADP.

#19 – Tommy Hanson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 1,986 (+1,986)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  24%

Mmm…flop?  No, definitely no.  Putting Tommy Hanson on the list pains me more than any other pitcher.  I still want him on at least one of my teams.  The projections (13 W / 3.50 / 1.24 / 188 K) look great and he might come at a bargain on draft day like Kershaw did last year.

The reason he’s on the list is that his pitch mix is similar to Nolasco’s.  24% sliders and another 14% curveballs.  He’s also got a changeup that he threw 4% of the time in 2009 that hopefully he’ll feature more in place of the breaking pitches.

I’m hoping the best for him but I’m not brave enough to pair him with anyone else on this list.

#20 – Josh Johnson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,412 -> 3,284 (+1,872)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson is a pitcher I really like, would draft, and sounds like an actor on the CW (b/w him and fellow Marlin John Vander Wal Rick Vandenhurk, their pitching staff reads like a Dawson’s Creek reunion).  He’s got a great fastball (95.1 MPH).  He’s got a decent changeup but just doesn’t use it that much.

But with that slider rate, I’m a little more hesitant to draft him than I otherwise would be.  I know he’s built like a truck but so was Kerry Wood.  Discount him a little bit and don’t cry to me in June if your Tommy Hanson and Josh Johnson-led staff has some injury troubles.

Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball news:

Alex Gordon – Broke his thumb.  Will now be held back and repeating his Sophomore slump for the third year.  I dropped him out my top 300 for fantasy baseball.  (BTW, Nathan was removed and Rauch and Guerrier were added.  Also, there were some other small adjustments.)  I wouldn’t touch Gordon outside of a 15 team league or deeper that had at least 2 DL spots.  At what point do Royals fans say, “Forget the next George Brett.  We’ll take the next Joe Randa!”

Russell Martin – Gained 20 pounds to regain some semblance of power (harder infield grounders!) and pulled his right groin.  And here we thought Alyssa Milano was in charge of pulling Dodger groins?  Rookie A.J. Ellis is an OBP machine (.437 in last two years in AAA) with less power than Martin (0 in 283 ABs last year).  Oh, and he’ll be the oldest rookie (29 in April) on the team since Hiroki Kuroda.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum.  No Halladay.  No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I have bedsheets with Lincecum on them… Hmm… That sounds wrong.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Utley or Teixeira or Longoria or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Papelbon, Rivera, Broxton… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick!  And why am I not wearing pants?!  For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Josh Willingham last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.  You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Clint Barmes on your bench.  Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.  Or grab a starter.  (Note:  This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.  If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Scott Sizemore?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Slowey?  No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Tim Hudson or Andy Pettitte?  I’m taking Hudson.  Billingsley or Garza?  I’m going Bills.  Slowey or Price?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Slowey.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal. You’re welcome.