101. Johnny Damon – 2010 Projections:  100/20/75/.290/15
102. Nate McLouth – 2010 Projections:  95/20/75/.260/20
103. Hunter Pence – 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15
104. Carlos Marmol – 2010 Projections: 4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves
105. Jose Lopez – 2010 Projections:  75/22/90/.275/3
106. Vladimir Guerrero – 2010 Projections:  70/26/90/.310/3
107. Yovani Gallardo – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.85/1.32/175
108. Jake Peavy – 2010 Projections:  10-5/3.35/1.15/145
109. Francisco Rodriguez – 2010 Projections:  5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves
110. Joakim Soria – 2010 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves
111. David Aardsma – 2010 Projections:  5-3/3.00/1.20/75, 35 saves
112. Chipper Jones – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.310/5
113. Miguel Montero – 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280
114. Elvis Andrus – 2010 Projections:  80/8/50/.270/37
115. Alexei Ramirez – 2010 Projections:  70/18/80/.280/15
116. Matt Garza – 2010 Projections:  12-9/3.80/1.24/200
117. Jered Weaver – 2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.22/180
118. Jose Valverde – 2010 Projections: 4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves
119. Scott Baker – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.65/1.17/170
120. Andrew McCutchen – 2010 Projections:  90/15/60/.280/30
121. Jay Bruce – 2010 Projections:  80/30/95/.270/7
122. Carlos Gonzalez – 2010 Projections:  85/18/70/.275/20
123. Brian Wilson – 2010 Projections:  4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves
124. Francisco Cordero – 2010 Projections: 3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves
125. Huston Street – 2010 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.00/55, 25 saves
126. Mike Napoli – 2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5
127. Geovany Soto – 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280
128. Stephen Drew – 2010 Projections:  85/22/75/.265/4
129. Garrett Jones – 2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12
130. David Price – 2o10 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.30/155
131. Ryan Dempster – 2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170
132. Roy Oswalt – 2010 Projections:  12-6/3.65/1.22/150
133. Rafael Soriano – 2010 Projections: 2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves
134. Tommy Hanson – 2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175
135. Javier Vazquez – 2010 Projections:  15-10/4.15/1.22/200
136. Matt Cain – 2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.25/165
137. Jair Jurrjens – 2010 Projections:  13-10/3.75/1.19/150
138. A.J. Burnett – 2010 Projections:  16-9/4.05/1.35/200
139. Chris Davis – 2010 Projections:  65/28/85/.255/7
140. Adrian Beltre – 2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10
141. Nolan Reimold – 2010 Projections:  85/25/95/.290/10
142. Asdrubal Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  95/8/65/.300/20
143. Clint Barmes – 2010 Projections:  65/15/75/.255/12
144. Rickie Weeks – 2010 Projections:  75/17/55/.255/15
145. David Ortiz – 2010 Projections:  70/27/85/.265
146. Michael Cuddyer – 2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5
147. Brad Hawpe – 2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.280
148. Kevin Slowey – 2010 Projections:  15-9/3.60/1.17/165
149. Jason Kubel – 2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.285
150. Billy Wagner – 2010 Projections:  4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves
151. Corey Hart – 2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17
152. Brian Fuentes – 2010 Projections:  2-6/4.00/1.35/45, 32 saves
153. Andrew Bailey – 2010 Projections: 2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves
154. Ryan Franklin – 2010 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves
155. Leo Nunez – 2010 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/60, 32 saves
156. Frank Francisco – 2010 Projections:  3-3/3.95/1.24/50, 25 saves
157. Mike Gonzalez – 2010 Projections:  1-3/3.15/1.22/70, 20 saves
158. Octavio Dotel – 2010 Projections:  2-4/3.45/1.34/65, 30 saves
159. Dexter Fowler – 2010 Projections:  85/10/55/.285/35
160. Johnny Cueto – 2010 Projections:  13-9/3.80/1.30/160
161. Clay Buchholz – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.34/155
162. Ervin Santana – 2010 Projections:  15-8/3.75/1.28/185
163. Jorge de la Rosa – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.15/1.34/200
164. Michael Bourn – 2010 Projections:  100/4/40/.270/55
165. Yunel Escobar – 2010 Projections:  90/15/75/.305/3
166. Miguel Tejada – 2010 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/4
167. J.J. Hardy – 2010 Projections:  65/23/80/.260
168. Rafael Furcal – 2010 Projections:  90/10/55/.275/20
169. Nyjer Morgan – 2010 Projections:  105/4/45/.300/45
170. Colby Rasmus – 2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14
171. Neftali Feliz – 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.30/1.26/120
172. Max Scherzer – 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165
173. James Shields – 2010 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.28/160
174. John Lackey – 2010 Projections:  13-9/3.95/1.29/130
175. Brandon Webb – 2010 Projections:  12-7/3.60/1.28/165
176. Carlos Zambrano – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.35/140
177. Travis Snider – 2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.265
178. Chris Iannetta – 2010 Projections:  50/17/65/.265
179. Phil Hughes – 2010 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.22/130
180. Joba Chamberlain – 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.85/1.34/160
181. Stephen Strasburg – 2010 Projections:  6-8/3.65/1.27/110
182. Jorge Posada – 2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280
183. Russell Martin – 2010 Projections:  70/10/60/.280/10
184. Bengie Molina – 2010 Projections:  50/16/65/.270
185. Tim Hudson – 2010 Projections:   13-5/3.55/1.32/145
186. Alcides Escobar – 2010 Projections:  80/5/55/.265/40
187. Rajai Davis – 2010 Projections:  80/4/40/.290/50
188. Julio Borbon – 2010 Projections:  90/8/40/.300/40
189. Juan Pierre – 2010 Projections:  95/1/40/.300/45
190. Trevor Hoffman – 2010 Projections:  2-2/3.05/1.12/40, 25 saves
191. Ryan Theriot – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.285/22
192. Ian Desmond – 2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.275/20
193. Everth Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.260/35
194. Marco Scutaro – 2010 Projections:  70/11/80/.275/7
195. Erick Aybar – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.290/17
196. Jhonny Peralta – 2010 Projections: 75/18/85/.265
197. Kevin Correia – 2010 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/135
198. Hideki Matsui – 2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.285
199. Jonathan Sanchez – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200
200. Howie Kendrick – 2010 Projections:  85/12/70/.310/12
201. Drew Stubbs – 2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35
202. Casey McGehee – 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.280
203. Placido Polanco – 2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/10
204. Felipe Lopez – 2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.285/10
205. Chase Headley – 2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10
206. Russell Branyan – 2010 Projections:  60/22/70/.240
207. James Loney – 2010 Projections: 75/15/85/.290/4
208. Michael Brantley – 2010 Projections: 55/5/65/.275/30
209. Elijah Dukes – 2010 Projections:  75/17/80/.270/15
210. Chris Coghlan – 2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.310/15
211. Franklin Gutierrez – 2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.270/13
212. Paul Konerko – 2010 Projections:  55/24/75/.260
213. Carlos Guillen – 2010 Projections:  75/15/70/.285/6
214. Ryan Ludwick – 2010 Projections:  60/24/85/.270/3
215. J.D. Drew – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275
216. Milton Bradley – 2010 Projections:  65/16/70/.280/5
217. Mike Cameron – 2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.245/14
218. Magglio Ordonez – 2010 Projections:  75/15/95/.310
219. Edwin Jackson – 2010 Projections:  10-12/4.15/1.36/140
220. Francisco Liriano – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.34/155
221. Joe Blanton – 2010 Projections:  14-12/4.25/1.32/140
222. Krispie Young – 2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15
223. Nick Swisher – 2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255
224. Delmon Young – 2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7
225. Bobby Jenks – 2010 Projections: 4-4/4.00/1.30/60, 35 saves
226. Matt Capps – 2010 Projections: 1-5/3.75/1.40/60, 30 saves
227. Chad Qualls – 2010 Projections: 1-3/3.55/1.20/50, 25 saves
228. Brad Lidge – 2010 Projections:  3-4/4.25/1.34/55, 24 saves
229. Kerry Wood – 2010 Projections:  1-3/4.45/1.34/60, 24 saves
230. Brandon Lyon – 2010 Projections:  2-2/3.65/1.28/60, 30 saves
231. Ryan Madson – 2010 Projections:  6-3/3.75/1.24/80, 18 saves
232. Lastings Milledge – 2010 Projections:  60/12/70/.265/12
233. Cameron Maybin – 2010 Projections:  85/14/50/.285/20
234. Jason Heyward – 2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20
235. Desmond Jennings – 2010 Projections:  75/7/45/.285/25
236. Austin Jackson – 2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22
237. Jason Frasor – 2010 Projections:  6-2/3.65/1.28/60, 15 saves
238. Kyle Blanks – 2010 Projections:  60/30/85/.270/3
239. Matt LaPorta – 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.275
240. Gerardo Parra – 2010 Projections:  75/10/60/.295/10
241. Scott Kazmir – 2010 Projections:  14-9/4.30/1.38/145
242. Michael Saunders – 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.275/15
243. Scott Sizemore – 2010 Projections:  80/14/70/.275/16
244. Brett Anderson – 2010 Projections:  9-11/4.25/1.27/135
245. Ricky Romero – 2010 Projections:  9-13/4.50/1.48/155
246. Randy Wolf – 2010 Projections:  14-12/4.05/1.20/155
247. Ben Sheets – 2010 Projections:  8-9/3.55/1.26/120
248. Rich Harden – 2010 Projections: 7-5/3.75/1.22/130
249. Gavin Floyd – 2010 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.26/175
250. Scott Downs – 2010 Projections:  5-4/3.85/1.30/40, 12 saves
251. Eric Young Jr. – 2010 Projections:  65/1/40/.290/30
252. Jorge Cantu – 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280
253. Jermaine Dye - 2010 Projections:  70/22/85/.260
254. Kurt Suzuki – 2010 Projections:  65/12/65/.270/6
255. Martin Prado – 2010 Projections:  70/8/60/.305
256. Yadier Molina – 2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5
257. A.J. Pierzynski – 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280
258. Ryan Doumit – 2010 Projections:  50/16/60/.280/3
259. Orlando Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  80/10/75/.275/15
260. Mark DeRosa – 2010 Projections:  65/18/75/.265/3
261. Todd Helton – 2010 Projections: 70/12/80/.315
262. John Danks – 2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155
263. Derek Lowe – 2010 Projections:  12-11/4.15/1.35/100
264. J.A. Happ – 2010 Projections:  12-10/4.35/1.32/155
265. Rick Porcello – 2010 Projections:  9-12/4.15/1.32/75
266. Daisuke Matsuzaka – 2010 Projections:  10-7/4.50/1.38/150
267. Joel Pineiro – 2010 Projections:  11-10/4.15/1.34/90
268. Mark Buehrle – 2010 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.25/125
269. Kelly Johnson – 2010 Projections:  85/15/65/.270/10
270. Seth Smith – 2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.290/10
271. Michael Taylor – 2010 Projections:  85/12/60/.280/15
272. Jake Fox – 2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.250
273. Alex Gordon – 2010 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/12
274. Wade Davis – 2010 Projections:  8-10/3.75/1.34/160
275. Chris Tillman – 2010 Projections:  7-12/3.65/1.32/150
276. Brain Matusz – 2010 Projections:  6-9/3.75/1.30/145
277. Mat Latos – 2010 Projections:  6-7/4.15/1.32/125
278. Andy LaRoche – 2010 Projections:  75/16/70/.270/3
279. Brandon Wood – 2010 Projections: 60/25/75/.250/7
280. Sean Rodriguez – 2010 Projections:  65/20/75/.250/5
281. Matt Lindstrom – 2010 Projections:  2-5/4.45/1.38/55, 10 saves
282. Chris Young – 2010 Projections:  7-10/4.00/1.28/145
283. Aaron Harang – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.35/155
284. Bronson Arroyo – 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140
285. Brad Penny – 2010 Projections:  13-10/4.40/1.37/110
286. Brandon Morrow – 2010 Projections:  10-7/3.85/1.40/100
287. Homer Bailey – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.40/145
288. Ted Lilly – 2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100
289. Aroldis Chapman – 2010 Projections: 5-3/3.75/1.37/70
290. Randy Wells – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.25/130
291. Justin Masterson – 2010 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.34/150
292. Erik Bedard – 2010 Projections:  3-5/3.55/1.28/85
293. Kelly Shoppach – 2010 Projections:  55/16/65/.245
294. Miguel Olivo – 2010 Projections:  30/16/45/.245
295. Jesus Flores – 2010 Projections:  55/15/65/.250
296. Vernon Wells – 2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10
297. Jeff Francoeur – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275/5
298. Juan Rivera – 2010 Projections:  65/24/75
299. Cody Ross – 2010 Projections:  65/22/75/.265/5/.280
300. Ramon Hernandez – 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265

Orlando Cabrera — To the Reds.  Orlando Cabrera is slightly more exciting than Hudson, but really it couldn’t have been more yawnstipating.  O-Cab brings a bit more speed potential with a slightly lower average.  Think 80/10/75/.275/15.  Not a bad name to look at late at MI, but you’ll definitely grow bored of him sometime in April.

Erik Bedard – Resigns with the M’s.  Solid for about three months of the six month season.  Unfortunately, no one has any idea when those three months will come.

Kevin Gregg – Signed on with the Blue Jays.  <sarcasm>When your team will battle for last place in the toughest division and you have guys that are capable of being the closer, why not sign a mediocre closer?</sarcasm> I imagine this signing is like what my friend we call, Cheap Bastard, does.  (You know, Fat Bastard.  Well, my friend’s cheap.)  He doesn’t really need a six gallons of chicken broth from Costco, but it’s on sale.  Everyone’s got a friend like this, or you are this person.  I figure the Jays will just trade Gregg away at the trading deadline.  Gregg’s not a terrible closer like his rap sheet may indicate.  He was a bit unlucky last year with homers allowed.  He was an unnecessary purchase for the Jays, but he’s no worse than most eh closers.  Around a 4 ERA, around a 1.30 WHIP and decent Ks — about 8 K/9, which puts him in the 60 K range on the year.  If he’s getting saves, he’s worth owning.  SAGNOF!  I think he will be the closer for at least the first part of the year.

Ryan Garko – Signed with the Mariners.  Again, another better in real baseball type move.  He’ll hurt Casey Kotchman’s playing time, but, as we all know, Kotchman was hurting his own playing time.

Adam Kennedy – Signs with the Nats and soils my Ian Desmond sleeper post.  Jim Riggleman said Ian Desmond could play all three outfield positions, shortstop and second base.  Not an ideal situation.  Will have to see what playing time is like for Desmond now.  If he can get 400 ABs, he’ll still have value, just not nearly as much.  I haven’t had such harsh feelings for a Kennedy since the early 90’s VJ.

1. Albert Pujols – I’m man enough to admit I love Poo-Holes.  2010 Projections:  110/40/120/.337/10

2. Hanley Ramirez – Ready to have your mind blown?  Imagine if the Red Sox didn’t trade Hanley to the Marlins.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.320/25

3. Chase Utley – Gets the edge on A-Rod for his position and pomade.  2010 Projections:  110/32/105/.300/15

4. Alex Rodriguez – Jeter’s got the market cornered on hot Latinas while A-Rod’s rocking lame ass white girls, but, unfortunately, I can’t hold that against him for fantasy.  2010 Projections:  110/36/120/.310/15

5. Ryan Braun – If he can do what I think he’s capable of, he could be number one for 2011.  2010 Projections:  110/37/120/.305/17

6. Mark Teixeira – Like LL, Tex just keeps doing and doing and doing it well.  2010 Projections:  100/37/120/.305

7. Miguel Cabrera – He gives me the vibe he doesn’t care, but maturity does weird things to people.  Shoot, I used to shave my head, sag my Karl Kanis and wear purple sneakers.  If Cabrera can put forth 100%, he can be a force.  2010 Projections:  105/35/115/.320/3

8. Matt Kemp – Man, I’m loving these 5-8 picks.  Can you dig it?  I knew you could.  2010 Projections:  100/30/110/.305/32

9. Prince Fielder – If 40 homers is the key, then Fielder’s a lock.  2010 Projections: 100/42/115/.285

10. Ryan Howard – Howard = Fielder + 5 homers – .010 on average.  2010 Projections:  105/47/140/.275

11. Evan Longoria – I had a premonition that Longoria could steal 20 bases in 2010.  Might’ve been indigestion.  2010 Projections:  100/36/115/.280/10

12. Tim Lincecum – From the files of Coincidences That Don’t Really Mean Anything, I ranked him 12th last year too.  2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250

13. David Wright – I don’t buy that Wright, Reyes or Johan are done.  If you were to jump out of a DeLorean and say to me you’re from the future and the Mets are in the playoffs, it wouldn’t shock me.  I’d assume they traded for three starters in July.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.300/17

14. Matt Holliday – He’s a great average, solid power and moderate steal contributor.  In fantasy, that gets you 14th.  2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15

15. Ian Kinsler – If he stays healthy again and has a lucky year for average, he can give you a season better than Utley.  But those are two decent-sized ifs.  2010 Projections:  110/29/80/.270/34

16. Troy Tulowitzki – As you can see from my projections — go ahead, look, this’ll be here — I think his steals come down from last year.  2010 Projections:  95/35/105/.280/12

17. Grady Sizemore – When I say bounce… You say back.  Bounce… Back…  Bounce… Back… Pounce… Back– I said pounce, got ya.  2010 Projections:  110/27/80/.270/25

18. Jose Reyes – See Wright, David.  Or about 3 and a half inches above.  2010 Projections:  115/13/65/.285/50

19. Carl Crawford – I’ll be honest, I considered dropping Crawford a little further down, but the near-15 homers gets him ranked here.  2010 Projections: 110/14/65/.290/50

20. Adrian Gonzalez – Mind blowing time again.  Imagine Hanley and Adrian Gonzalez on the Red Sox.  2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280

21. Jimmy Rollins – This is the last shortstop for a while.  Why?  Cause shortstops suck.  You’re best to not look at shortstops again until Andrus.  2010 Projections:  110/20/65/.275/28

22. Justin Morneau – I’m kinda all right on Morneau this year.  I’m not expecting 35 homers or any steals, but around 30/100/.290 is solid.  2010 Projections:  95/32/110/.290

23. Jacoby Ellsbury – Same that goes for Crawford.  Probably won’t own Ellsbury but the boy has speed and some slight power.  2010 Projections:  105/10/65/.300/60

24. Justin Upton – I like J-Upside this year, but, then again, everyone does.  2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20

25. Felix Hernandez – Love, love, love F-Her.  Think he has multiple Cy Youngs in his arm.  But I probably won’t own him either.  Before I get a ton of comments about why would I rank someone somewhere and then say I wouldn’t own them.  I can’t own everyone.  It’s just impossible.  For instance, with my first two picks, I take Braun and Reyes, I’ll need a first baseman.  If I take Hanley and A-Gon, I’ll need an outfielder.  If I take A-Rod and Sizemore, I’ll need a first baseman.  It’s just the way I assemble a team.  I’m not going to draft a starter third UNLESS — yes, Mr. Caps, that’s for emphasis — Lincecum’s still around in the third round then I won’t be able to turn that down.  But that doesn’t mean F-Her isn’t ranked here.  If I were to only do the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.  Also, technically I would own F-Her if he were around after I drafted, say, Braun, Reyes and Votto.  But he won’t be.  2010 Projections:  18-6/3.00/1.10/220

26. Zack Greinke – More or less the same gist as F-Her.  2010 Projections:  14-5/3.05/1.10/225

27. Roy Halladay – Halladay could easily be the top rated starter at the end of the year.  He’s not listed first because the guys above beat him in Ks and age.  2010 Projections:  17-8/3.02/1.14/185

28. Joe Mauer – He’s ranked 28th because I know he’ll be gone before he gets to here.  Consider it a preemptive strike.  2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3

29. Ryan Zimmerman – I see Zimmerman moving into the 2nd round for 2011.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

30. Kevin Youkilis – When a player gets to 30 years old and has failed to reach 30 homers, it’s pretty safe to say he’s probably not getting there.  The Greek God of 27 Homers and a Near-.300 Average.  2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5

31. CC Sabathia – I had this wild dream the other day.  I was watching a Yankee game where CC was on the mound but instead of CC it was Prop Joe.  2010 Projections:  20-10/3.45/1.17/200

32. Mark Reynolds – Flip over your your pocket-sized Chinese food take out calender, 2009 was the Year of the Mini Donkey, not 2010.  2010 Projections:  85/35/95/.250/12

33. Joey Votto – If you don’t know how I feel about Votto at this point, you haven’t been reading the site.  2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7

34. Curtis Granderson – His average will come up and the homers will fly in the Boogie Down.  2010 Projections:  110/30/80/.270/20

35. Jayson Werth – In any different lineup or park, I’d be worried about Werth ranked this high.  Plus, he’s a 5 time Intercontinental Champion.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18

36. B.J. Upton – Don’t believe last year’s average.  2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40

37. Brandon Phillips – Steady contributor at a weak position.  2010 Projections:  80/22/95/.275/22

38. Brian Roberts – I’m worried at some point Roberts is going to get old.  He’ll be 32 in twenty-ten.  Might happen.  2010 Projections:  105/13/75/.285/30

39. Dustin Pedroia – Member the battles I fought last year for telling people Pedroia wasn’t a 1st or 2nd round pick?  Yeah, those people went into the shadows like Orson Welles in The Third Man.  2010 Projections:  110/15/70/.305/15

40. Robinson Cano – Entering the magical 27 year old season and his high average is not a trick.  (A trick is something a whore does for money.)  2010 Projections:  90/27/100/.315/5

41. Brian McCann – I probably won’t own McCann outside of two catcher leagues, but I am more pro-McCann than most ‘perts.  2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3

42. Victor Martinez – V-Mart at first base is kinda eh.  2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300

43. Ichiro Suzuki – Great average, but I don’t pay for average.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25

44. Jason Bay – I don’t think Metco kills a player’s value, but it’s definitely not Fenway.  2010 Projections:  85/28/105/.270/10

45. Johan Santana – I don’t think Metco makes a pitcher’s value, but it’s Johan.  Falling K-rate, schmalling K-rate.  2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200

46. Adam Lind – I understand people not being crazy for Lind because of his position, but don’t be not crazy for him because you think his power is fluky.  Yes, that was a triple negative.  Those are okay.  2010 Projections:  85/35/110/.300/2

47. Josh Hamilton – Hey, it’s my old whipping boy.  I like him this year.  See, it wasn’t personal.  2010 Projections: 85/28/100/.275/7

48. Andre Ethier – I’m basically stocking my outfield with these rankings.  Say what you want about depth, but it’s not that deep when every team needs 5 of them.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

49. Derek Jeter – Last year’s slight boost in power makes sense, but the huge increase in speed won’t carry over.  2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20

50. Justin Verlander – Just don’t abandon ship when he starts the season poorly.  2010 Projections:  17-11/3.25/1.20/230

51. Dan Haren – Abandon ship when the clock strikes July.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200

52. Jon Lester – If it means taking a starter in the 5th round, so be it.  But I’m looking to own Lester on at least one team in 2010.  2010 Projections:  17-7/3.35/1.20/215

53. Adam Wainwright – Hmm… Where are the top starters?  This seems off.  2010 Projections:   16-8/3.30/1.18/190

54. Carlos Quentin – Charlie Quentin is talented, the health is the issue.  2010 Projections:  80/28/95/.275/5

55. Nelson Cruz – His projections say he should be above even Hamilton and Ethier but I have my trepidations that Cruz could revert to being the guy that couldn’t get out of the minors.  Unlike my other trepidations, this one feels less warranted.  2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15

56. Adam Jones – Why is Adam Jones being drafted after players like Manny?  Point your right foot thumbkin up and point your left foot thumbkin down.  Right is Jones, left is Manny.  2010 Projections:  95/27/85/.280/15

57. Nick Markakis – I do think Markakis is talented, but I’d sure like to see a year of 25+ homers before drafting him as my first outfielder.  Shoot, I’d take just 25 homers.  2010 Projections:  100/24/100/.300/7

58. Pablo Sandoval – I’m probably lower on Sandoval than most, but I don’t think 25 homers was a jumping off point but more of a ceiling.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.315/4

59. Aaron Hill – I don’t buy 2009 at all, so I’m not touching him where lots of ‘perts are.  2010 Projections:  85/24/80/.280/5

60. Kendry Morales – If he’s 26 years old, I’ll shave the ’stache.  2010 Projections:  80/28/100/.285/3

61. Lance Berkman – Unlike beef, going from prime to aged isn’t great.  2010 Projections:  80/25/95/.295/7

62. Adam Dunn – 40, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38… Even if it’s 36 in 2010, he’s still worth the average.  2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250

63. Carlos Pena – Led the AL in homers and missed the last month of the season.  2010 Projections:  95/37/100/.250

64. Shin-Soo Choo – Throw Choo, Abreu, Victorino and Hunter into a big, over-sized hat and pick out one for your team.  They’re all relatively the same.  More speed here, less average there.  More pop here, less speed there.  2010 Projections:  90/18/100/.285/20

65. Bobby Abreu – How is he fast and Miguel Cabrera slow when they both have the same body type?  2010 Projections:  95/15/100/.300/20

66. Shane Victorino – Now that Crapolanco shoved him down the order, I anticipate yelling at the TV screen, “Stop bunting over Victorino!”  2010 Projections:  75/12/85/.290/30

67. Torii Hunter – He hasn’t stolen more than 20 bases in a season since 2004.  Cust kayin’.  cus2010 Projections:  75/23/85/.275/17

68. Carlos Lee – Could be more valuable than Lind, but where’s the excitement in that?  2010 Projections:  65/27/100/.300/5

69. Ben Zobrist – With Zobrist, Jacoby Ellsbury and Zimmerman, it’s a renaissance for players whose names sound Jewish but are not.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/12

70. Chone Figgins – If you have a team where your 2nd baseman and shortstop  have pop — think Uggla and Tulo — I could see Figgins.  But the dearth of power at 3rd could kill your entire team.  I opt for steals in the latter rounds at MI.  Think Everth Cabrera.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

71. Cole Hamels – He paid last year for being overworked in 2008.  This year he makes up for it.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.45/1.15/185

72. Josh Johnson – Last year, he had a sub-3 ERA until August 20th.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.35/1.22/175

73. Cliff Lee – The Adverb is about as safe as they come, but he gets ranked here because he’s not a huge strikeout threat.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.40/1.22/160

74. Ubaldo Jimenez – Takes nads the size of beach balls to draft a Rockies pitcher as your first pitcher off the board.  Also takes nads to win a fantasy baseball championship.  Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself.  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.27/200

75. Derrek Lee – Lee’s not a 35 homer hitter like last year.  He’s a 24 to 27 homer hitter.  My apologies to Cubs fans, Derrek Lee’s family and anyone else I might have hurt with my words.  2010 Projections:  90/25/100/.295/3

76. Ricky Nolasco – Love the K/BB and badass name.  2010 Projections:  15-7/3.55/1.20/200

77. Josh Beckett – What can be said about Red State Jeter that hasn’t already been said?  Sounds like a rhetorical, but really what?  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.70/1.22/195

78. Clayton Kershaw – I took down my Ron LeFlore door poster and put up Clayton Kershaw.  2010 Projections:  12-4/3.20/1.22/200

79. Denard Span – Probably the least exciting name on the top 100 (though Uggla’s a close second).  Span’s numbers aren’t that far off from Victorino.  Call him Feign Victorino.  I might need to do a Sleeper post about Denard Dawg.  That’ll draw some eyeballs. /sarcasm  2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/22

80. Alfonso Soriano – Free swingers don’t age well.  Speedsters with leg problems don’t run much.  Still 20/10 seems to be about his floor.  There’s value in that.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.270/12

81. Alex Rios – Rios is like buying a Chia Pet.  You’re excited when you buy it.  Seems like a fun idea.  Then you get home, never water it and it goes 8-for-75.  2010 Projections:  85/19/70/.275/22

82. Chris Carpenter – As I mentioned in the top 20 starters, I’m avoiding Carp, Yovani and Peavy.  Ergo, I switched the order in this top 100.  Ergo, Yovani and Peavy didn’t even make the top 100.  Ergo, I have no idea if I’m using ergo correctly.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.10/1.05/135

83. Manny Ramirez – I’m not going to be able to get Manny this late and that’s by design.  2010 Projections:  85/28/100/.300

84. Matt Wieters – Dreamy without the Brady Anderson sideburns.  2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305

85. Gordon Beckham – I’m typing this with my toes as I do sit-ups.  That’s how much I like Beckham.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

86. Raul Ibanez – Sorta in the same boat as Werth, but older.  I.e., if Ibanez were on a different team in a different lineup, I’d have no problem lowering him.  Hitting in Citizens Bank behind Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard and Werth is not a bad place to be.  2010 Projections:  85/27/100/.270/3

87. Carlos Beltran – I don’t feel comfortable with this ranking and could see skipping right over Beltran if I were drafting in early March.  I need to know more about his condition.  2010 Projections:  70/20/80/.280/12

88. Jason Bartlett – If you haven’t seen Charlie Bartlett, I’d avoid it.  And Jason Bartlett.  2010 Projections:  95/7/50/.285/27

89. Joe Nathan – There’s no way I’m getting one of these closers this late in a draft.  That’s all right, cause I don’t want them. Continued thought in Papelbon’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  4-2/1.95/.95/80, 45 saves

90. Jonathan Papelbon – But as more and more fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s term) become better informed, closers are starting to fall lower and lower.  Continued thought in Rivera’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves

91. Mariano Rivera – If this trend continues then I may have to tell people to start drafting closers because at a certain point there’s value with them.  Continued thought in Broxton’s blurb.  2010 Projections: 4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves

92. Jonathan Broxton – Hmm… No, that’s about all I wanted to say about that.  2010 Projections: 5-4/2.75/1.05/100, 40 saves

93. Michael Young – Old is as Young does.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

94. Aramis Ramirez – Kinda wanted to drop Aramis out of the top 100, but his position saves him.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

95. Dan Uggla – According to Uggla, Hanley doesn’t give it his all.  Uggla should see if he can have some of whatever it is Hanley is holding back.  2010 Projections:  90/32/100/.250/3

96. Wandy Rodriguez – I’ve said this before so skip ahead if you’ve already heard this from me… Then again you might not know what I’m going to say until I say it… Anyhoo!  Weird how some people break out and no one believes it while others break out and they shoot up the rankings.  Wandy was solid last year; his only concern is health.  If healthy, he’s fine.  2010 Projections:  13-11/3.55/1.27/190

97. Chad Billingsley – Same boat as Hamels with less WHIP potential.  2010 Projections:  16-8/3.50/1.32/190

98. Heath Bell – First closer I could see myself owning.  2010 Projections: 2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves

99. Billy Butler -  Upside and luscious moobs.  2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295

100. Ian Stewart – I wanted to end the top 100 with Stewart cause I’m crushing hard.  To read more about him, go directly to my Ian Stewart fantasy.  If you see wavy lines like in a dream sequence, it’s completely normal.  2010 Projections:  85/29/100/.260/10

1) With the resigning of the largest Flying Molina Brother, Buster Posey doesn’t seem to have much of a chance to break camp with the club.  Do we see him in 2010 at all?  What do you expect of him?

If the Giants are in contention, and Molina is healthy, there’s no way Posey will start more than two or three game in the second half. Bruce Bochy really believes that inexperienced catchers are death to a team’s chances of winning. Starting Posey over someone who is familiar with the staff would be as negligent as starting only two outfielders.

But if the Giants are out of the race, and if Posey is doing well, he’ll probably start quite a few games down the stretch.

2) I’m not that optimistic on Nate Schierholtz.  Make me a believer.

It’s hard to be optimistic about a guy who has swung at pitches that have hit him — again, that’s pitch*es*, plural — but the projection systems like him well enough. PECOTA, CHONE, Bill James, ZiPS…they all seem to think he’ll be an average hitter. His minor league numbers are decent enough (.308/.355/.516), and he’s not a defensive liability at all, so he’ll get a chance.

If he ever controls the strike zone at all, he’ll be a nice player. You could write that, though, about 3,121 different players.

3)  I am optimistic about Jonathan Sanchez.  Give me your boldest prediction for Sanchez this year.

Boldest? Well, if you want to get nuts, ZiPS lists his comparable pitchers by age as Mark Langston, Sandy Koufax, and Randy Johnson — all LHP with huge K-rates who suddenly morphed into something fantastic during their mid-20s. That’s bold. In my wildest bouts of optimism, I’ll say 200 IP, 230 K, 90 BB, 3.30 ERA. I don’t think he’ll make it to 200 IP, though. He’s too wild, and I’m not sure how he’d hold up over that workload.

His ability to miss bats is pretty rare, though.

4) With the signing of 30-somethings like Molina, DeRosa, Huff, Rowand, and Renteria, do you think Sabean considers this a “youth movement?”  C’mon, bring back Vizquel and Randy Johnson.  Trade for Moyer.  What’s Julio Franco up to?

I think his commitment to the farm system came in the last two years, and you really need four or so to bear a lot of fruit. Other than Posey and Sandoval, the best of the Giants’ system aren’t above A-ball yet, so I can’t fault the guy for trying to build a win-now team without long-term contracts or blockbuster trades. Maybe the Giants could have been set for a longer period of time with a young guy like J.J. Hardy; maybe that would have cost Jonathan Sanchez. Maybe the Marlins were asking for Thomas Neal in exchange for Dan Uggla.

That said, I’m not wild about the stopgaps he did pick up. Huff is a clank-mitt, DeRosa is good but old, Molina is a horrid offensive player when you consider everything but home runs, and none of them are substantial improvements over the incumbents.  Sabean basically spent $18M this offseason for his version of cost certainty. If all of those guys fall flat on their faces, Sabean can say, jeez, how was I supposed to guess these proven players were going to disappoint? This is preferable to trying to explain how unproven players didn’t perform in his mind, and he thinks the season-ticket holders agree. Who knows? Maybe he has a point.

5) With Pablo Sandoval on a strict conditioning program this offseason, what kinds of things can we expect from him this summer?  A) Changes nickname to Kung Fu Hustle.  B) After a game winning homer, he gets a salad smashed into his face.  C) When he hits one out, less instances where announcers scream ‘Rerun’ instead of ‘Home Run.’

I think he’ll still be a little spherical, but hopefully he’ll be able to repeat his 2009 performance for years to come. I don’t think he’d mind the salad as long as it was followed by four more courses.

I know what a lot of you are thinking.  What the eff does totes crazy mean? Actually, I thought you were thinking Aramis will beat my projections this year because it’s a contract year.  Ah, yes.  The contract year theory.  For those not in the know, the contract year theory is when someone’s production peaks the year they are about to enter free agency, allowing them to cash in.  The first known example of the contract year theory was when Noah built the ark before signing a lifetime contract that produced nothing except odd texts about animal fornication.  It didn’t catch on in baseball for many years later.  In 1897, the Cleveland Spiders management gave a $50 raise to Sparky Anklebiter after a massive 3 HR season only to see him drop to 0 HRs the next year.  I wish someone would flip the script on players who play well in their contract year.  I’d love to hear a negotiation go something like this, “For you to be so much better in your contract year, it means you were sandbagging it for the previous three years.  Yeah, we want someone who sandbags it.  We’re going to sign Jack Wilson instead.  He throws well.”  Okay, now for actual examples of contract year players from last year:  Beltre (8 homers and crizzap), Rick Ankiel (lots of strikeouts, ugly bout with an outfield wall), Erik Bedard (usual injury shizz), Khalil Greene (ended up in the psyche ward), Rich Harden (see Bedard), Brett Myers (bunch of hits off him, some thrown at his wife) and Xavier Nady (season ended April 14th).  Yay, contract year theory.  That shizz is foolproof.

Aramis Ramirez is currently being drafted on average around 60th.  That’s about 3 rounds too early.  He’s overrated.  Grey out.

In that mock, they drafted Ian Stewart 163rd overall.  Wow, Stewart has an ADP of 120 at Mock Draft Central so that’s awesome value!  The only hitch is, there’s no way anyone’s getting Stewart that late in a draft if they draft with anyone but those ESPN readers who are also in the monkey house.  The monkeys at ESPN don’t even mention Stewart was good value at 163.  You know why?  Because they have no idea.  They don’t look at anything besides what’s written at ESPN.  It’s like Hurley from Lost doling out fantasy advice.  Jack’s doing surgery, Locke’s seeing shizz and The BQE is taking Ian Stewart 163rd overall.  Honestly, I’m not even sure if they have an internet connection in Bristol.  So this look at the monkeys’ mock draft may be constructive for those of you who are playing against other monkeys, but, in reality, we’re just mocking them.  Anyway, here’s some head scratchers from ESPN’s 2010 fantasy baseball mock draft:

Carl Crawford – 7th overall. Ha!  Seriously, I don’t even know what to say about this.  Michael Bourn is that different at around pick 100?  The saving grace to this pick is that it was made by Nate Ravitz, who, I believe, is the neighbor in Bewitched.  Could be wrong.

Joe Mauer – 14th overall.  Bewitched neighbor grabbed him too.  So with Mauer and Crawford he’s looking at about 35 homers combined for his first two picks.  Guess he’s punting power.  Yeah, he just lost.  Thanks for playing.

Ryan Howard – 18th overall.  This is the last player I’m looking at that was taken way later than they will normally go. (Kinsler at 21?!  Wait, did they do this mock draft in 2007 and forget to post it?)  Howard is a great pick at 18.  Again, ain’t happening in the real world, so I’m done looking at value picks in this draft.

Derek Jeter – 25th overall.  I actually like Tristan Cockcroft (who is a Yankee fan and maybe why he made this pick), but Jeter at 25th overall is just silly.  Maybe Cockcroft is hoping for a wedding invite.  Not sure; let’s not dwell.

Javier Vazquez – 61st overall.  That’s around where his ADP is,  but I have him ranked around 135th overall.  I might need to do an overrated post on him.

Yovani Gallardo – 69th overall.  The BQE goes for YoGa about 40 spots before he should, but not nearly as bad as…

Brandon Webb – 98th overall.  They are totally reprinting a 2007 draft just to see if anyone will notice.  Very sneaky.

James Shields – 152nd overall.  Not a pick I would make, but this isn’t so much about the time Shields was drafted.  The real knee to the balls is in the comments where they wrote, “Becquey takes James Shields with pick No. 152, and many lament that Shields is off the board.”  Why? Because of his mediocre K-rate?  Is it his increasing walk rate?  Is it his inability to pitch in away games?  Is it his division?  Are they using a new definition of lament?  Seriously, I have to stop before I get an aneurysm.

This first version is based solely on CHONE projections except for Saves which we added (CHONE doesn’t estimate saves).

In late February/early March, we’ll add ZiPS projections and reweight the projections based on the latest playing time expectations.  If a certain player looks high/low, you should consider the plate appearances.  For example, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone ranking Orlando Cabrera ahead of Jason Bartlett.  But Cabrera is projected at 87 more plate appearances (631 vs. 544) which helps pad his R/HR/RBI/SB totals.  The impact that playing time can have is even more dramatic when looking at starting pitcher value.

For those unfamiliar, Point Shares are our home-grown methodology (inspired by Bill James’ Win Shares) for rating fantasy players.  Besides providing a basis for rating players, Point Shares provide quick estimates as to a player’s impact to your overall team points and compare across categories – e.g., Ichiro’s contributes 1.3 points in SB vs. the average OF and -1.3 points in HRs vs. the average OF.

Here are the basics:

• Point shares represent a player’s estimated impact on an average team’s points versus the average drafted player at his position.  So in a 12 team league, the ‘average drafted SS’ would be between the 9th and 10th valued SS (12 starting SS, 6 slotted for 2B/SS) and the average team would get 65 points (6.5 per category if 12 is top and 1 is bottom).    For example, Hanley Ramirez’s 9.69 Point Shares mean he was worth 9.69 points more to the average team than the average stats for SS in a 12-team MLB league and move the team up to 74.69 points.

• Point Shares are estimated for each statistical category.  Hanley Ramirez’s 9.69 Point Shares break out as: 2.4 Runs, 1.7 HRs, 1.0 RBI, 2.5 SB, and 2.1 AVG.

• The assumed roster makeup is C/1B/2B/SS/3B/CI/MI/5 OF/Util/9P.  The assumed number of SPs and RPs per team are 5.5 to 3.5.  The UTIL slot is manned by DH and some OF, 1B, and 3B.

• Players are ranked based on the position in which they are judged most valuable and are 20 games eligible. The order of most valuable to least valuable for positions is: C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH.

• Player value is primarily driven by positional comparisons (75% for hitters, 85% for pitchers) with the remained based on the average hitter/pitcher.  Batting Average, ERA, and WHIP are adjusted based on a player’s ABs/IPs (e.g., the more ABs/IPs, the greater a positive/negative impact it has for a fantasy team).

Here are some answers to some common questions:

1) Why do SPs rank higher in Point Shares than they are typically drafted? (e.g., 10 of top 20 in final 2009 PS, 2 of top 3 for 2010)

The best pitchers generally dominate 4 categories (W, K, ERA, WHIP).  While they don’t contribute in Saves, there is little opportunity cost to this since saves are concentrated in 30-40 players and there are 90+ pitching roster spots (108 for 12 team).  For hitters, it’s rare for a player to be excellent across more than 3 categories and there’s a larger opportunity cost for the categories they are not great (i.e., OFs like Ichiro and Taveras hurt HR/RBI).  Note that only 8 players in 2010 are projected to be average or better for their position in all 5 stats (Hanley, Pujols, Braun, Wright, Holliday, A-Rod, Kemp, Beltran).

Here’s another way of looking at it.  If you converted Zack Greinke’s 2009 season to an OF (W=R, HR=SO, RBI=WHIP, SB=SV, AVG=ERA), his line would have been 103 /40/108/11 /.367.   Lincecum and Felix Hernandez weren’t too far off this.  The reason why it’s usually not advisable to draft a pitcher in the 1st round is the unpredictability of who’ll be the top pitchers vs. their true value.  Here’s a more thorough explanation of a pitcher’s fantasy value.

2) Why are Point Shares based off value over an average player versus a replacement player?

There are several ‘real’ baseball metrics that value a player against ‘replacement players’ including Baseball Prospectus’ VORP and Sean Smith’s WAR.  These take position into account as the offensive value of a replacement-level 2B is going to be less than than an OF.

Point Shares uses ‘average player’ for two reasons:

a) ‘Replacement Player’ in fantasy baseball doesn’t properly estimate positional value

Fantasy baseball has two key differences that converge the replacement level for all positions to a similar offensive value:  1) The number of players selected per position varies in fantasy baseball (e.g., 1 C / 5 OF) vs. real baseball (1 C / 3 OF) and 2) The Utility position which disproportionately grabs 1B/OF given their greater hitter depth.

Note:  UTIL distribution is estimated

The below chart shows how the value of hitters converges across all positions by the time you reach  ‘Replacement Value’ or, in other words, the Free Agency wire.  If there are any inequities where a certain position has greater depth, the UTIL slot will exploit it (and that doesn’t even account for Bench).  So if one used a true ‘replacement value’ estimate by position, there would be little to no positional adjustment despite the fact that, all statistical equal, a player with C, 2B, or SS eligibility is more valuable than someone with 1B or OF eligibility.   By using ‘average’ player value, the differences in offensive value among the top-end players can be taken into account providing a better reflection of a player’s value vs. the players owned on your competitors’ teams.

Note:  Based on 2009 data with value estimated by using Tom Tango’s formula of HR + SB + (H – .27*AB) + R/3 + RBI/3

b) Point Shares estimates a player’s impact on the average team vs. their impact on a replacement-level team.

Let’s say it’s draft day in a 12 team MLB league and your team looks like a keg-league softball team.  All power, no SBs.  There is no doubt that, should you keep that roster, you will finish first in HRs and last in SBs.  If you trade Ryan Howard for Jacoby Ellsbury, you may see no impact in HR/RBI and gain 6 points in SB.  If the other team was built like a Herzog-era Cardinals team, they might see a lift in HR/RBI with little to no impact on SBs.

These are extreme cases of course.  It’s rare that a random team is destined to be in last place for a statistic (random meaning that we’re not talking about a specific team that was on auto-pilot for draft day or is managed by that doofus in your office) .  So let’s say the odds are 11-1 a team in a 12-team league would finish last in a statistic.  It wouldn’t make sense to value Ellsbury’s SBs the way that the most SB-desperate team would value them, right?

Well, that would be precisely the way a ‘replacement-level’ methodology would look at it.

If we look at things from an average perspective, you would give equal probability that a team would finish in 1st place through 12th place for each stat.  If the best team is at 120 points and the worst at 10 points, the average team is at 65 points ((120+10)/2)  or 6.5 points per category.  For a team to have 6.5 points per category, we need to assume they are average at every position vs. has a replacement-level player.

3) What is the highest/lowest score possible?

Theoretically, the best/worst possible Point Shares score for a category would be +/- 5.5 pts in each category (moving someone from 6.5 to 12 or 1).  Any other league size, just divide the team total by 2 and subtract 0.5 (10 team = 4.5).  A simpler way of looking at it would be to consider how one would calculate the average value per team of a player with 50 SBs.  For the team that’s 1st in SBs, his value is 0.  For the 2nd team, it could be worth +1.  Take this to its logical conclusion and you get (0+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11)/12.  That’s 66/12 = 5.5.

Note:  The highest points within a single category in 2010 Point Shares v1 is Jacoby Ellsbury’s 3.6 points in SB.

——-

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1. Matt Thornton – Last year Marmol was number one; this year we go to the South Side.  Not only do I think he steps in for Jenks before the season is through but I also think he puts up fantastic numbers with his purdy K-rate.  2010 Projections:  5-1/2.70/1.05/80, 18 Holds, 15 Saves

2. Fernando Rodney – Will there be guys with better ratios?  Yes.  Isn’t the whole point of being a MR. B is for ratio help?  Yeah, but who’s kicking vulture saves out of bed?  Rodney’s high ranking is predicated on the chance Fuentes loses the job.  2010 Projections:  3-5/4.25/1.35/65, 15 Holds, 12 Saves

3. Scott Downs/Jason Frasor – Frasor should be the closer, could be Downs, but Gregg was just brought in.   You know how sometimes you don’t remember what you did with your keys?  Okay, now imagine you’re Cito Gaston and choosing a closer is the keys.  Downs’s 2010 Projections:  4-2/2.75/1.24/55, 22 Holds, 7 Saves, Frasor’s 2010 Projections: 6-3/3.05/1.22/60, 12 Saves

4. Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain – This will be a Spring Training decision for the Yankees and fantasy owners.  The one in the bullpen may actually end up with more value than the one in the rotation.  Projections will come once it’s decided, but expect a lot of Ks and Holds, but not a lot of Saves.

5. Takashi Saito – Member how well he pitched as the Dodgers closer?  Yeah, we can see all that again.  Even if we don’t, he’s proved to be a valuable MR.  2010 Projections:  6-2/2.35/1.24/60, 22 Holds, 5 Saves

6. Matt Lindstrom – It’s anyone’s guess who will be worse in the Astros bullpen, Lindstrom or Lyon.  One will probably get 25 saves and the other will probably get 12.  My guess is Lyon will be the one with 25.  Lindstrom’s for save vultures, not better ratio seekers.  2010 Projections:  2-4/4.40/1.40/50, 15 Holds, 12 Saves

7. Jason Motte – Motte’s ERA should come down from last year and he might get a look as the closer (though I have my doubts on the last point as explained in the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball post).  2010 Projections:  5-3/3.30/1.28/60, 17 Holds, 3 Saves

8. Matt Guerrier – If this list were simply about Holds, Guerrier would be top 3.  2010 Projections:  4-3/3.55/1.22/50, 22 Holds

9. Drew Storen – I can’t tell you how disappointed I am that the Nats signed Crapps.  Oh wait, I can:  very.  I think Storen can be lights out as the Nats closer right now, but we won’t see him until midseason at the earliest.  This is more a heads up for deep leagues or keepers.  2010 Projections:  1-3/2.00/.90/35, 7 Holds, 3 Saves

10. Franklin Morales – Since he has a Cuddle Boy and a closer labeled “Fragile” in front of him, Morales will probably see some saves.  2010 Projections:  3-3/3.75/1.38/50, 10 Holds, 10 Saves

11. J.P. Howell – Thurston and Lovey’s son is mentioned, but Wheeler and Balfour could also be included because once Soriano goes down with an injury (and he probably will) there will be a vacuum at the closer spot.  2010 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.18/70, 10 Holds, 5 Saves

12. Michael Wuertz – This is more of a gut call, but I think Bailey falters.  Yes, Ziegler’s also there.  Hey, aren’t we all entitled to our nonsensical projections? 2010 Projections:  4-2/3.15/1.35/85, 15 Holds, 10 Saves

13. Chris Perez – Kerry Wood’s all, “I’m a pro!  You can’t get with my stuff!  Ow, I have tendinitis.”  2010 Projections:  2-3/3.75/1.30/60, 10 Holds, 3 Saves

14. George Sherrill – As I said back in October, “From Donkeycorn to a middle man but still retained his value, especially for MR. B’s, as Sherrill only gave up 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings in LaLa Land.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  5-2/3.25/1.25/55, 20 Holds

15. Joel Hanrahan – Octavio Dotel will probably be the best value closer in terms of his ADP when he’s healthy, but Dotel’s 36 years old with a history of elbow problems.  That sounds like a recipe found on Worst Cooks in America. (What, you’re too cool to admit to watching The Food Network?  I know why Anne Burrell always wears a skirt.  So she’s not confused with Guy Fieri.) 2010 Projections:  2-4/4.25/1.40/75, 10 Holds, 5 Saves

16. Sergio Romo – Unless you’re a Giants fan, you’re probably wondering why I’m ranking Tony Romo’s fashion line, Sergio Romo.  His stuff isn’t overpowering but his K-rate is sorta ridunkulous.  Lots of risk with Romo, but if he can continue to baffle hitters he could be a nice find.  2010 Projections:  2-3/3.05/1.00/65, 10 Holds

17. Jim Johnson – I’m confident in Mike Gonzalez’s ability to get saves, but I’m never confident in his manager’s confidence in him.  I really think people in baseball look at his numbers on paper and think, “Great, we have ourselves a cheap closer!”  Then they watch him pitch and they suddenly think, “Wait, he’s a lefty?  Lefties can’t close.”  2010 Projections:  2-6/3.85/1.35/45, 15 Holds, 5 Saves

18. C.J. Wilson – I don’t completely buy the ERA or K-rate last year, but he has experience as a closer and Francisco’s prone to injury.  2010 Projections:  5-4/4.20/1.35/60, 15 Holds, 7 Saves

19. Joel Zumaya – This is more of a flier than anything.  If he finally makes good on his promise, he’ll have more value than most guys on this list.  2010 Projections:  2-3/3.60/1.40/45, 15 Holds

20. Danys Baez – He’s pretty dreadful, but so is the Phils bullpen.  If Baez were on any other team, he wouldn’t be in the top 20… Or top 40 for that matter. 2010 Projections:  3-6/4.50/1.35/45, 12 Holds, 5 Saves

After the top 20 middle relievers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but this one stands out:

Daniel Bard – I don’t see Bard getting any saves unless Papelbon gets hurt krumping.  Bard could still, however, be the most valuable middle reliever with his wicked fastball.  (Wicked is being used here to add emphasis.  Example, “Mary Sullivan’s so hawt.  She barfed all over a Havahd kid.  What a wicked pissah.  I think I love her.”  2010 Projections:  5-3/3.15/1.25/85, 20 Holds

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [95 – 57] AL East
AAA: [61 – 82] International League
AA: [67 – 74] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 72] Carolina League
A: [73 – 65] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [45 – 30] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [26 – 27] Gulf League

The Run Down
The junior Evil Empire has no reason to complain this off-season. Spending millions replacing Jason Bay (with Mike Cameron), adding Lackey to sure up their rotation, buying a “better” shortstop (who will regress and make BoSox fans upset) and taking the best defensive third baseman (Adrian Beltre) off the market, Boston has taken its focus a bit off of their farm system. The graduations of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon and Jacoby Ellsbury in the past has sapped the top end talent out of their system in 2009. Not to mention, the acquisition of Victor Martinez (trading Hagadon, Masterson, and Bryan Price to Cleveland) further emptied some of their depth. Furthermore, the current top prospect prospect (Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland) going into 2010 is still a season or more away from helping in the majors. However, if Keith Law is to be believed, the Red Sox have the second overall farm system in 2010. This is based mainly on Boston having seven top 100 prospects. They have some nice arms with high upside, and some toolsy fielders, but many of those players are young and still need to prove themselves. 2010 will be a season of truth for several prospects in the minors, not to mention if they can keep up with their rival Evil Empire.

Graduating Prospects
#4 – (RHP) Dan Baird

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Fox
Pitchers – #6 Casey Kelly; Randor Bierd; #26 Richard Lentz; Chris Province; Dustin Richardson
Hitters – #15 (C) Luis Exposito; Jose Iglesias; #13 Ryan Kalish

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#1 – Lars Anderson | 1B | AA | 21 | .233/.328/.345 | 447 AB | 23 2B | 9 HR | .112 ISO | 114:63 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 54.8 GB% | 13 LD% | 32.2 FB%
Lars struggled more than words can express in 2009. His ground ball, line drive and fly ball rates are close to his career rates (54.2 GB%, 15.9 LD% | 29.5 FB% in 1613 AB), but his batting average on balls in play went from a career level of .351 to .296. These numbers would project him to be below average power hitting first baseman. He battled through a hamstring injury in the late summer causing him to miss some playing time at the end of the season. Furthermore, he started the season with a back injury that he played through. Many ‘perts are giving him a mulligan on the 2009 season, but he very well come have met his ceiling, or nearing his ceiling. The mid-summer months were his best, but nothing impressive from a first baseman. He’ll be 22 in 2010 and still has the potential to shine. Don’t be shocked to see him back at Double-A in 2010.

#13 Ryan Kalish | RF | A+/AA | 21 | .279/.364/.457 | 506 AB | 24 2B | 18 HR | .178 ISO | 21/6 SB/CS | 107:68 K:BB | .317 BABIP | 47 GB% | 14.8 LD% | 38.2 FB%
Kalish stayed in High-A long enough to tally 115 at-bats and showing that he needed a promotion. Upon reaching Double-A, the homers started coming (13 in 391 AB). He didn’t hit the ball hard as often as I would like (league average LD% is 18%), the walks are fairly impressive. With the potential to be a 20/20 hitter, Kalish looks like a Grady Sizemore in the making (and he played in CF at Double-A as Josh Reddick was playing RF). Look for him to start the year in Triple-A.

#5 – Josh Reddick | RF | AA | 22 | .277/.352/.520 | 256 AB | 17 2B | 14 HR | .243 ISO | 62:30 K:BB | .310 BABIP | 36.2 GB% | 14.4 LD% | 49.5 FB%
Reddick did have 71 at-bats at Triple-A Pawtucket, but they were utterly terrible as his slash line shows .127/.190/.183. Today, Reddick and Kalish are, and should be, equally ranked. Reddick has the potential for more power, especially with a much higher fly ball rate (49.5% versus 38.2%). If he didn’t struggle this year at Triple-A, it could have been feasible that he started in the big leagues this year. He has a rocket of an arm (41 outfield assists pre-2009) and adequate defense. With J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron aging, the Red Sox have some nice in-house outfield options. He should also be in Triple-A to start the 2010 season.

Pitchers
#2 – Michael Bowden | RHP | AAA | 22 | 6.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 126 1/3 IP | 3.13 ERA | 4.18 FIP | 1.21 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .260 BABIP | 31.1 GB% | 19.5 LD% | 44.6FB%
Scouting the Unknown lays outs Michael Bowden pretty well. My opinions of him haven’t changed since mid-July. Matter-of-fact, looking at his peripheral stats, I like him even less, especially with the terrible ground ball rate. The AL East hitters will feast on Mr. Bowden. With the acquisition of Lackey and a loaded farm system of pitchers will make Bowden return to Triple-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be there until an injury or a trade.

#7 – Junichi Tazawa | RHP| AA | 23 | 8.1 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 98 IP | 2.57 ERA | 3.44 FIP | 1.08 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .284 BABIP | 43.7 GB% | 13 LD% | 39.6 FB%
Another Red Sox player that received a Scouting the Unknown last summer, and if you do a quick search within the Razzball website you’ll see several poor Major League outings. He also pitched 11 1/3 innings at Triple-A and performed well. Tazawa is still another full year away from making a major impact at the major league level. Tazawa has the skill set to thrive in the majors.

#28 – Stephen Fife | RHP | A/A+ | 22 | 8.9 K/9 | 1.4 BB/9 | 87 1/3 IP | 3.71 ERA | 3.30 FIP | 1.19 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .317 BABIP | 55.5 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 25 FB%
This is a bit of a stretch to place him in this section. There are definitely other pitchers the Red Sox could call upon in 2010 if there are bullpen issues. However, Fife generates more ground balls with his low to mid 90’s fastball than the US Government generates debt. With a slurvy slider and an average circle change-up, Fife could quickly rise through the minors if he continues to keep the ball on the ground. With another season under his belt, the Red Sox may try to make him into a starter. If this happens, he could be Aaron Cook, the 2009 Joel Pineiro, or even a Roy Halladay. The most likely outcome would be the Aaron Cook end of the spectrum. Serviceable, but nothing exciting.

Honorable Mentions
These players are in this section because they aren’t as likely to make an impact in 2010 for the Red Sox on the major league level. However, many of these prospects are their top rated prospects.

Hitters
#8 – Ryan Westmoreland | CF | A(ss) | 19 | .296/.401/.484 | 223 AB | 15 2B | 7 HR | .188 ISO | 19/0 SB/CS | 49:38 K:BB | .353 BABIP | 46.9 GB% | 16.9 LD% | 36.3 FB%
Keith Law has him ranked as the Red Sox number two prospect in 2010, and John Sickels has him ranked number one. He has the power to hit 20 to 25, and possibly even 30 homers with 25 to 30 steals in a full season. His plate discipline is stellar, his defense adequate, and the only concern is his injury history. Prior to playing in the minors he had shoulder surgery, thus the reason why he only has 223 at-bats this year. He’ll start in Single-A or possibly even High-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be talked about more in 2011 and potentially playing in the big leagues in the late summer of 2011. However, a more reasonable expectation would have him playing in the majors in 2012.

#21 – Derrik Gibson | 2B/SS | A(ss) | 19 | 255 AB | 15 2B | 0 HR | .090 ISO | 28/5 SB/CS | 4238 K:BB | .351 BABIP | 60.3 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 24.6 FB%
He plays great defense, control the strike zone really well, but will struggle to hit for much power. Could be Adam Everett with some speed, or Neifi Perez – a slap hitter with little fantasy value save SAGNOF.

Ryan Lavarnway | C | A | 22 | .285/.367/.540 | 506 AB | 36 2B | 21 HR | .255 ISO | 113:50 K:BB | .349 BABIP | 40.2 GB%| 16.4 LD% | 43.1 FB%
I couldn’t find much information about Lavarnway, but my eyes tell me an ISO of .255 is pretty darn impressive. Power doesn’t just appear out of nowhere. Unless your name is Marcus Giles. Lavarnway has a long way to become truly relevant. He’ll need to repeat this type of performance for another two years for him to have a shot at the major league level. Having depth at catcher is extremely important in any organization. High-A should continue to help his numbers, but Double-A will be his first real test.

Pitchers
#6 – Casey Kelly | RHP | A/A+ | 20 | 7.0 K/9 | 1.5 BB/9 | 95 IP | 2.08 ERA | 3.04 FIP | .85 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .230 BABIP | 51.6 GB% | 10.7 LD% | 33.8 FB%
Aided by an extremely low BABIP (.230), Kelly’s numbers were inflated (technically, that would be the correct word). Once a shortstop with stellar defense and a terrible bat, the Red Sox have committed to making Kelly a pitcher instead of a two-way player. His fastball has late life and reaches 92 mph. His curveball has a sharp bite and a changeup in the works. Projected to be a number two or three starter, Kelly will get tested in 2010 while at Double-A. If he can keep his good ground ball rate, he’ll progress quickly through the mid-minors. However, the numbers should regress a bit due to that extremely low BABIP. It would be scary to think of where he could be right now if he, and Boston, would have made him a pitcher to begin his career.

#11 – Stolmy Pimentel | RHIP | A | 19 | 7.9 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 117 2/3 IP | 3.82 ERA | 3.91 FIP | 1.39 WHIP | .9 HR/9 | .343 BABIP | 39.5 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 37.3 FB%
Considered to have the best changeup in the Boston farm system, Stolmy still has room to improve his average fastball (91 to 92 mph) with very few qualities attached to this offering. There is little life on his fastball. His curve is a show-me pitch with the ability to become an average pitch. He should reach Double-A next year if all goes well.

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And no, I didn’t forget about Anthony Rizzo. He’ll get a Scouting the Unknown later in the 2010 season. So commentators do not worry, I won’t forget about him.

It must be remotely close to a new fantasy baseball season as the Fantasy Roundtable returns from a couple months of dormancy.

This week’s Fantasy Roundtable is being hosted by the roundtable creators over at FantasyPros911 – the only fantasy baseball blog that my namelganger Rudy Giuliani reads.

THE TOPIC: What were your biggest mistakes in 2009?

Enjoy!