1) Aside from perhaps Matt Wieters, there wasn’t a player who failed to live up to their huge hype than Chris Davis.  Do you think he can manage a .260 / 25+ HR season whilst he strike out at a rate that would make Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds blush?

I don’t think a .260/25+ home run season is unreasonable for Davis, particularly given that he had a .238/21 home run season last year while playing roughly two-thirds of the season.  But realistically, hitting .260 with 25-30 home runs probably isn’t going to cut it for Davis to keep his job — he’s always going to strike out a lot, but he’s got to add some walks and put up power numbers more like he did in 2008.  I certainly think he’s capable of doing that — he hit at every level in the minors, hit in the majors in 2008, and doesn’t turn 24 until later this month.  But it is going to come down to improving his contact rate — at 150 Ks in a season, he is a potential All Star.  At 200-225 Ks in a season, he’s going to be out of a job.

2) We felt Josh Hamilton was overrated for fantasy baseball purposes last year but even we weren’t expecting just 336 ABs and 10 HRs.  Is expecting .280/25/100 too optimistic?

It is hard to say with Josh.  I’m thinking that we, as Rangers fans, need to think of him as another J.D. Drew, a guy who is going to make you crazy by missing time with what seem to be minor injuries, and who is always going to be dealing with nagging injuries.  If he plays 130 games this year, he should be good for 30+ homers, and with the Rangers moving him out of CF to save on the wear and tear, he should have a bounceback year.

3) Let’s play over/under with HR/SB:  Kinsler 25/25, Cruz 25/15, Borbon 10/30, Andrus 7/35.

4) It’s been, well, ever since a Rangers starting pitcher has been considered draftable in most fantasy baseball formats.  Convince us that 1 or more of the Rangers pitchers might be one of the top 50 pitchers this year.

For starters, the Ranger defense is going to help the pitchers’ ERAs.  The defense has been below average for most of the last decade, but in 2009, with guys like Elvis, Kinsler and Cruz providing plus defense, the Rangers had one of the best rates of converting balls in play into outs in the league.  That translates into better ERAs.  The two guys who I think are worth a look fantasy-wise are Rich Harden and Colby Lewis.  Harden, everyone knows about, a guy who has great stuff and hasn’t stayed healthy.  Lewis is an interesting case, a guy who went to Japan and was great, and who the projection systems all seem to think will translate well back in the U.S.  He’s a guy I think is worth a flyer on, because if he does translate what he did in Japan to the U.S., he’d be a steal.

5) What’s more likely to happen in 2010:

a) An in-game fight breaks out and Nolan Ryan jumps on the field and gives someone a headlock.

b) The Ranger catchers combine for less extra base hits than letters in their collective last names.

c) The new Ranger owners call up Tom Hicks and Dubya for ownership advice.

d) Vlad Guerrero and Josh Hamilton both play 140+ games.

I think c.  Dubya wasn’t a bad owner (although he was really just the figurehead for the money guys), and with Hicks, well, they might want advice from him to see what he did, so they can avoid his mistakes.

Jair Jurrjens – -1.74 difference.  And that was before he went for an MRI on his shoulder.  P.W. Botha isn’t the only one getting The Gas Face.

J.A. Happ – -1.59.  Can Happ avoid the sophomore slump?  Sure, if Ryan Howard gives up cheesesteaks, learns to fly and knocks every ball down that is hit off of Happ.

Matt Cain – -1.32.  He should’ve regressed the entire year last year, but he Keyser Soze’d his way through it.  Unlike the above two names, Cain’s above a 7 K/9, so I have some love for him.

Randy Wells – -1.19.  Okay, Wells was also lucky last year.  Not great, but he does keep his walks down.  Kinda like my overweight aunt.

Bronson Arroyo – -1.16.  Eh, he shouldn’t be owned until July anyway.

Johan Santana – -1.00.  But he was injured.  But what if he’s not fully healed?  And the falling K-rate?  I don’t know… Damn, random italicized voice, you’re supposed to be for comic relief, not for making actual points.  My bad.

Randy Wolf – -0.93.  I don’t think anyone, including Wolf, really thought he was for real last year.

Edwin Jackson – -0.78.  Don’t you just love it when pitchers I’m not excited about end up on the list of pitchers to avoid?  Yeah, don’t wanna blow your mind right here, but it was kinda planned that way.

John Danks – -0.77.  Last year, I liked Danks and disliked Floyd.  This year, the opposite.  Danks for the memories.  Danks, but no Danks.  Danks for nothing.  You pick the bad wordplay.

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80’s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

Braves

Kenshin Kawakami – Pitched decent last year.  Under 4.00 ERA from the 5th spot is gold.  SP/RP eligibility is platinum.  I’m for this guy — he keeps the ball on the ground.

Kris Medlen – Maybe youth can be served in the A T L.  Minors number show he has some potential. To me, he looks like a midseason trade guy for offense.

Phillies

Kyle Kendrick – I bought some of his juice 2 years ago. I’ve seen him twice this spring already and he looked pretty decent.  Plays in a HR friendly environment — not good.

Jose Contreras – Grizzled old Cuban not named Livan. Gives them the “I have been there before” guy to have in a pinch.  Moyer is lurking around somewhere too.

Reds

Aroldis Chapman – Now we are getting to “ooh” guys.  We all know about him — he is climbing up the ADP boards.  I think he gets 5-6 starts in minors.  Awesome potential; future number 2.

Matt Maloney – The designated place holder at the onset of the season.  Has potential.  Do not sleep on him — he may be a better contributor after they trade of Bronson/Harang.

Mike Leake – Yeah, he is still in contention in my eyes.  Awesome polish.  Well beyond his years on the mound.  Ponder this for next year:  Cueto, Chapman, Bailey Volquez and Leake.  WOW.  Pretty decent, I’d say.

Brewers

Dave Bush – It’s feast or famine:  head for the mountains and choose anyone but “bush.”  Having a decent enough spring to make you go…. maybe.

Manny Parra – Potent offense may help both of these guys.  Good K numbers, bad everything else is not a fair trade off for me. Mostly NL-Only help here, but roll the dice when it gets warmer.

Cardinals

Jaime Garcia – Rook is ready. Saw him pitch live and he has the goods that you’re looking for.  The “Lou” is definitely going lefty with the 5.  Minor league numbers are good enough to buy for a dollar.

Rich Hill – I told you it’s either Mickelson or Gomez.  Duncan’s pet project this year.  Had the goods to make everyone believe 3 years ago.  Yeah… you know who you are.

Dodgers

Eric Stults – Loved him as Rocky Dennis — not so much for the Dodgers.  Thirty-year-old may be a late bloomer. Worrisome high walk rate. Pitching well in Spring Training.

James McDonald – E I E I O, minor league success at every level.  Dodgers SP is very overrated. They may need his potential at the back end of the rotation.

Yankees

Phil Hughes – Joba has fallen into the pen, IMO.  Hughes has only himself to blame if he goes to join him. Awesome potential three years ago; he was a top 5 prospect. Still only 23.  SP/RP eligibility.

Alfredo Aceves – Gaudin is helping his cause. Destined for long relief.  ‘Fredo could be a guy who sneaks in. Had a year talking to the G.O.A.T in the pen.

A’s

Gio Gonzalez – Awesome punch out numbers.  Favorite of mine for sneaky late round pick.  His peripherals make me sad.

Vin Mazzaro – A fellow “Dirty Jerzian.”  Is the opposite of Gio:  pitches to contact.  For my money, he is the extremely poor man’s version of Slowey.  Last seen with JWOWW and Snooki at Jenks.

Twins

Francisco Liriano – I’m truly tired of talking about this guy. Now they want him to be a closer… Minny is throwing in the towel already.  Not a great idea. That Pierzynski trade right now looks good for this year.

Royals

Kyle Farnsworth – Yeah him.  I got nothing.  Horrible as a reliever.  Hillman drinking the sauce for an early unemployment check.

Kyle Davies – Still have nothing.  For giggles, look up his Spring numbers. I haven’t seen that fat of a number since 7 ate 9.

Robinson Tejada – Time to take the training wheels off.  Previously admired by me.  Great K potential. Looked great in final 6 starts last year.  RP/SP eligible a plus.

Rangers

Matt Harrison – Arlington bleachers gobble up fly balls in summer — unfun for pitchers. My money says Feliz pitches out of the pen to start the year.  Decent Spring so far.

Derek Holland – Great potential. Needs to develop a third pitch.  There really is no loser here:  both will get starts as Harden and McCarthy are “fra-gee-lay” and neither are Italian.

Orioles

Davis Hernandez -  Great K numbers in the minors.  Did decent enough last year to be considered here.  Not the prospect that his competition is.

Chris Tillman -  Another sleeper guy for non-dynasty leagues that I like. Is part of the handful of Baltimore top pitching specs.  Don’t sleep on him.

Andrew Bailey – Out for a week with tennis elbow.  No word exactly what caused it, but we’re guessing it’s from all the pressure on his serving when playing with his doubles’ partner, Brad Ziegler.  Stop with your underhand serve!  Wuertz hasn’t pitched yet in the spring, Waking Joey Devine is Walking Wounded Joey Devine until he sees game action, so that leaves Ziegler.  Here’s my IM exchange with Rudy about picking up Ziegler.   Me, “I’m grabbing Ziegler.”  Rudy, “Forget it, Grey, it’s Oaktown.”  He was right; I forgot it.  Bailey could still be ready to start the season, so this isn’t an immediate add, but, as I’ve been saying in the offseason, Bailey’s not that safe.  This could be a bullpen by committee by May 1st and Ziegler’s probably the third man on the totem pole.  Hard to say right now with so many injuries.  If this were in the middle of the season, I would’ve grabbed Ziegler.

Armando Galarraga – Optioned to the minors.  Minor league hitters celebrate.

Angel Guzman – Visited Dr. Freeze earlier this week.  Today, he’s on ice for most of the season.

J.R. Towles – Front-runner for the job of catcher in Houston as he bats .550 so far in the spring.  There’s not much power in his bat, but he could be a post-hype sleeper for the late round catcher brigade.

Scott Downs – Scott Downs’ Syndrome lives on as Gaston said that Downs is likely to open the season as the set-up man.  Gregg’s my frontrunner for the closer job.

Cliff Lee – Suspended for first 5 games of the season.  He tested positive for surliness.

Brandon Webb – Aiming for late-April.  Anyone wanna take bets that late-April becomes late-May?

Ron Washington – Tested positive for cocaine.  Last year, he fully admitted his transgression to the Rangers and MLB.  Then he admitted it again, then he rubbed his gums, then he asked if anyone had a smoke, then he admitted it again, then he talked at length about the differences between Whit Stillman’s Barcelona and that disco movie, then he went to a diner to “get some grub.”

10 TEAM — In a 10 team league, you should aim for around 80 points. That’s 3rd place, which is noted for each category below.

RUNS

Average — 1088
High — 1204
Low — 972
3rd Place — 1152

HOME RUNS

Average — 262
High — 309
Low — 215
3rd Place — 288

RUNS BATTED IN

Average — 1054
High — 1173
Low — 935
3rd Place — 1120

STEALS

Average — 166
High — 230
Low — 103
3rd Place — 202

AVERAGE

Average — .283
High — .295
Low — .270
3rd Place — .290

WINS

Average — 80
High — 97
Low — 63
3rd Place — 90

SAVES

Average — 75
High — 156
Low — 44
3rd Place — 131

ERA

Average — 3.83
High — 3.23
Low — 4.42
3rd Place — 3.47

WHIP

Average — 1.28
High — 1.21
Low — 1.34
3rd Place — 1.24

STRIKEOUTS

Average — 1099
High — 1285
Low — 913
3rd Place — 1202

14 TEAM — In a 14 team league, you’re in contention if you have around 110 points.  Or 4th place, which is noted in the categories below.

RUNS

Average — 1030
High — 1140
Low — 919
4th Place — 1089

HOME RUNS

Average — 242
High — 282
Low — 202
4th Place — 264

RUNS BATTED IN

Average — 990
High — 1102
Low — 878
4th Place — 1050

STEALS

Average — 143
High — 195
Low — 92
4th Place — 171

AVERAGE

Average — .279
High — .291
Low — .267
4th Place — .286

WINS

Average — 77
High — 93
Low — 61
4th Place — 86

SAVES

Average — 54
High — 117
Low — 33
4th Place — 98

ERA

Average — 3.95
High — 3.34
Low — 4.56
4th Place — 3.60

WHIP

Average — 1.30
High — 1.24
Low — 1.37
4th Place — 1.27

STRIKEOUTS

Average — 1024
High — 1197
Low — 851
4th Place — 1117

16 TEAM — In a 16 team league, you’re in contention if you have around 120 points.  Or 5th place, which is noted in the categories below.

RUNS

Average — 993
High — 1099
Low — 887
5th Place — 1042

HOME RUNS

Average — 230
High — 268
Low — 192
5th Place — 248

RUNS BATTED IN

Average — 954
High — 1062
Low — 846
5th Place — 1004

STEALS

Average — 135
High — 184
Low — 87
5th Place — 158

AVERAGE

Average — .279
High — .291
Low — .267
5th Place — .286

WINS

Average — 77
High — 93
Low — 61
5th Place — 86

SAVES

Average — 54
High — 117
Low — 33
5th Place — 98

ERA

Average — 3.95
High — 3.34
Low — 4.56
5th Place — 3.60

WHIP

Average — 1.31
High — 1.25
Low — 1.38
5th Place — 1.28

STRIKEOUTS

Average — 1013
High — 1184
Low — 842
5th Place — 1093

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [65 – 97] AL Central
AAA: [57 – 85] International League
AA: [89 – 53] Eastern League
A+: [60 – 78] Carolina League
A: [71 – 66] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [49 – 27] New York Pennsylvanian
R: [24 – 32] Arizona League

The Run Down
After a season of trading away their major league assets and marketability (Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and Mark DeRosa to name a few), the organization still looks like it’s in rebuilding mode. There is still some quality talent on the major league squad (Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera).  However, their team and fans should expect much of the same struggles that 2009 saw in 2010. There is some great young talent nearly ready for the majors in Carlos Santana (2010 Fantasy Outlook and his Scouting the Unknown), the major league ready Carlos Carrasco (Scouting the Unknown), and the freshly graduated Matt LaPorta; not to mention the once stud prospect, Andy Marte, at third base. Oh, and don’t forget about the speedy Michael Brantley (Top 300 Fantasy Player Rankings, Top 60 Outfielders #50). There are things to be excited for in Cleveland, it’s just not winning a pennant (or a football game). With one of the top ranked minor league systems in the majors, again, the Indians look poised for a youth invasion.

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers – Conner Graham; Josh Judy; Zach Putnam
Hitters – (C/1B) Matt McBride; (3B) Carlos Rivero; (2B) Josh Rodriguez; (OF) Nick Weglarz

Graduated Prospects
#2 (OF) Matt LaPorta; #8 (LHP) David Huff; #10 (2B) Luis Valbuena; #15 (OF) Trevor Crowe; #17 (LHP) Tony Sipp; #3 (STL – RHP) Chris Perez

Players of Interest 2010
Hitters
#3 (PHI) Lou Marson | C | AAA | 23 | .277/.361/.360 | 314 AB | 21 XBH | 2 HR | .083 ISO | 59:40 K:BB | .335 BABIP | 53.1 GB% | 19.7 LD% | 27.2 FB%
Received in the Cliff Lee trade this past season, Marson projects long term to be the backup for Carlos Santana. Marson truly is the ideal prototypical catcher. He is able to call a good game, keep the opposing teams running game in check, plays excellent defense, handles the strike zone well when batting and projects to hit somewhere between .250 and .275 with a league average OBP. But Marson is just keeping the seat warm until Carlos Santana is ready. For fantasy, Marson is somewhere between a good backup and a league average catcher.

#3 Nick Weglarz | LF | AA | 21 | .227/.377/.431 | 339 AB | 35 XBH | 16 HR | .204 ISO | 78:75 K:BB | .253 BABIP | 45.9 GB% | 14.3 LD% | 39.4 FB%
Weglarz’s slash line looks terrible due to a couple of reasons, maybe even three. Item one, he hurt his back in July. Item two, he had a stress fracture in his left shin in August. Item three, his extremely low batting average on balls in play (.253). Considered one of the most patient prospects in the minors, Weglarz is similar to Jaff Decker of the San Diego Padres. Both players are able to control the strike zone, hit for power, however, both players have questions about their physical stature and where they are going to play defense. Weglarz may need to return to Double-A to start the season and with any sort of improvement in his BABIP and ability to stay healthy, which has been a problem in the past, he should make a cameo in September.

#25 Jordan Brown | 1B | AAA | 27 | .336/.381/.532 | 417 AB | 52 XBH | 16 HR | .196 ISO | 64:30 K:BB | .370 BABIP | 43.5 GB% | 20.9 LD% | 35.7 FB%
With Grady Sizemore occupying that spot and Brown’s poor defense, he should, and usually does, play first base. He also doesn’t have above average power. His strengths are his ability to make consistent contact and drive the ball to the gaps. His BABIP would predict a lower slash line in 2010, however, John Sickels believes he could be this year’s Garrett Jones. With Russell Branyan oft-injured, Matt LaPorta yet to prove himself, and being cellar dwellers, the Indians may give Brown a chance in his age 27 season. He’ll start the season at Triple-A barring any injuries.

Pitchers
#13 Hector Rondon | RHP | AA/AAA | 21 | 8.4 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 3.38 ERA | 3.11 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 8.8 H/9 | .319 BABIP | 37 GB% | 15.8 LD% | 42.3 FB%
Rondon possesses a 90 to 94 mph fastball, a slightly above-average changeup and a fringe-average slider. His fastball has great late movement that can top out near 96 mph. At just 21, Rondon was playing with prospects several years older than him and handling the adversary quite well. As one can expect at their first stop at Triple-A, Rondon’s numbers lagged, or dropped off from previous stops in the minors. Definitely a fly ball pitcher, he is able to control the free passes (1.8 BB/9) while keeping the ball in the park (.7 Hr/9). Could be a dominant reliever or a mid-rotation innings eater. Either way, he’s a name you’ll want to watch this summer.

Jeanmar Gomez | RHP | AA | 21 | 8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 1/3 IP | 3.43 ERA | 3.86 FIP | 1.27 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 8.5 H/9 | .302 BABIP | 46.3 GB% | 15 LD% | 35.3 FB%
When you throw a perfect game (May 20, 2009), people are bound to notice. He throws a 88 to 91/92 mph fastball, with an average but inconsistent slider and a change that has some splitter-like action. Relying heavily on deception, Gomez isn’t going to make people’s jaws drop or mouths drool, but can provide serviceable performances and organizational depth. He’ll start the year in the Triple-A and may see a late season call up.

Josh Judy | RHP | AA | 23 | 11.5 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 49 1/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 2.59 FIP | 1.07 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 6.4 H/9 | .320 BABIP | 47.8 GB% | 10.3 LD% | 36 FB%
Used as a reliever, Judy has a deceptive 90 to 95 mph fastball that he throws with a hard slider. He keeps the ball in the park, punches out batters impressively (11.5 k/9, 188 K’s in 168 IP), and has a 1.88 GO/AO ratio. Judy could easily see action out of the Indians bullpen in 2010.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#6 Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B | A+/AA | 20 | .258/.325/.472 | 481 AB | 56 XBH | 22 HR | .214 ISO | 96:44 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 42.4 GB% | 15.2 LD% | 41.7 LD%
Chisenhall is easily the best ranked prospect in the organization behind Carlos Santana:

• Ranked #25 overall hitter by John Sickels
• Ranked #26 overall prospect by Keith Law
• #25, #17, #25 overall prospect by Baseball America Editors

His swing is considered one of the best in the minors and could easily produce above average numbers at each stop on the way to The Show. Most scouts aren’t worried about his strikeouts getting out of control or his spotty, but, improving defense. He was a shortstop at college and transitioned to third last year. The promotion to Double-A rocked his world as he slashed .183/.238/.387 in 93 at-bats. Now, that is a small sample size to draw upon, however, the peripherals show that there isn’t anything to worry about as his ISO stayed similar (.216 at High-A and .204 at Double-A) and he has a slightly below average BABIP at .275. His age and level of play puts him on the fast track to the majors. He’ll be getting more attention this summer in a Scouting the Unknown. Look for him to start in Double-A. This is a good thing as this puts him on the fast track to the majors with his movement only impeded by fringe players to begin with.

#16 Abner Abreu | RF | A | 19 | .305/.351/.488 | 246 AB | 27 XBH | 7 HR | .183 ISO | 68:11 K:BB | .399 BABIP | 49.3 GB% | 21.6 LD% | 29 FB%
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: his ceiling is tremendously high, his power is absolutely astonishing but he cannot control the strike zone and has too many strikeouts. Abreu’s at-bats are low because he dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield in June. Nevertheless, the extremely high BABIP would indicate that his poor strike zone judgment would eventually catch up with him. Remember that his ceiling is high, but his downside is low, as well.

Pitchers
#22 Zach Putnam | RHP | A+/AA | 21 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 80 2/3 IP | 4.13 ERA | 2.74 FIP | 1.29 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 9 H/9 | .332 BABIP | 53.6 GB% | 16.5 LD% | 25 FB%
Pitching in relief this past year, Putnam throws a 90 to 94 mph sinking fastball, a slider, and split-finger that is his out-pitch. He also has a change and a curve but doesn’t use them in the bullpen. He’ll get a chance to start at Double-A in 2010, but the Indians aren’t sure where he’ll end up. In the ‘pen, he could provide the Tribe with another power arm that could go more than an inning, or a groundball backend starter. Putnam is definitely one of the more interesting prospects that I have found this off season.

#3 (BOS) Nick Hagadone | LHP | A/A+ | 23 | 11.8 K/9 | 4.8 BB/9 | 45 IP | 2.80 ERA | 3.00 FIP | 1.11 WHIP | 0 Hr/9 | 5.2 H/9 | .265 BABIP | 55.5 GB% | 7.6 LD% | 18.5 FB%
Ignore his age as he had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and returned on a strict pitch count in June 2009. Received as a part of the Victor Martinez trade, Hagadone has a 92 to 98 mph fastball, a power slider, and the potential for an above-average defense. Everyone really likes his potential, but I am hesitant to put any sort of hype into Hagadone as his control is sketchy (4.8 BB/9) and he hasn’t pitched many innings in the minors due to his injury. With only 5 innings at High-A, Hagadone has a lot to prove in 2010. His ability to keep the ball on the ground will help his status, he just needs to do this over a full season. At this point, I would reserve any more comments or judgments until further data becomes available.

Chen-Chang Lee | RHP | A+ | 22 | 10.5 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 83 1/3 IP | 3.34 ERA | 2.94 FIP | 1.14 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 7.2 H/9 | .314 BABIP | 46.7 GB% | 11.5 LD% | 36.1 FB%
If Hagadone does what Lee has done in 2009, in 2010, he’ll be receiving my praises. Lee throws a 92 to 93 mph fastball that has topped 96 mph. He also has an average slider and a developing split-finger to combat lefties. His future is in the bullpen and he’ll need to prove himself at Double-A to cement his future as a possible Tribe bullpen member. Think a solid middle-reliever and nothing more.

Elijah Dukes – This post was thisclose to being titled, “Put Down Your Dukes.”  Alas, the Street’s broke (<– economist pun +1).  Dukes was released by the Nats.  After Dukes heard the news, reports suggest the Nats car service couldn’t find anyone to drive Dukes home from the stadium.  Roll up the window! Um, you just smashed it with your bat.  I said, roll it up! Dukes will land somewhere, but it’s no concern of yours until he does.

Stephen Strasburg – Headed to the minors to start the season.  I guess the Nats sold as many tickets as they could to April and May games, then they pulled the trigger that I thought would be pulled all along.  Strasburg will be back in June or so.  In mixed leagues, you can stash if you want, but remember rookie pitchers can roofie you.

John Smoltz – Retired to be a TBS analyst.  George Lopez better watch out!

Suddenly, you’re burning up like you just chugged a bottle of Emeril’s Creole Seasoning.  Worse, you have cotton mouth and have no time to go to the sink.  Outside, it’s raining.  Then “Water, water everywhere, but not a drop to drink…” starts playing on loop in your head.  Over and over again like a Lady Gaga song chorus.  You look up at the draft timer and you have 30 seconds left.  You look at the reflection of yourself in your framed supposed-to-be-ironic poster that reads, “The glass is half empty, deal with it” and you begin to sob.  Not happy “I just won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar” sobs, but sad “Please let me out of your van; I don’t want my skin to be made into a suit” sobs.  With three seconds left, you draft Chris Davis.

Immediately, everyone in the draft room begins to mock you.  Nice reach, I think Matt Stairs is still available for your corner!… Hey, I didn’t know Bill James was drafting with us!…  You suck! And, with that, you open the window to your bedroom and jump out.  Luckily, you live on the first floor and only bruise your ankle.  You limp back through the house, ignore your Mom’s take-out-the-freakin’-garbage complaints, sit back down at your computer and zombie your way through the rest of the draft.  Only half paying attention because you know you screwed up the Davis pick.

It was a reach.  You probably could’ve took Davis a few rounds later.  But it’s not the ruination of your draft.  Reaching is a part of drafting.  If you’re not reaching for guys that you want then you might not know which guys you want.  You don’t want to reach every single round, but sometimes it’s not only appropriate but it’s necessary.  Wouldn’t you rather have a guy you want in the 9th round then a guy you don’t want in the 16th?  Draw an emoticon on your hand and learn to smile again.  It’ll be all right.

1) Cameron Maybin looks like an unrefined five-tool stud like a young Burt Reynolds.  Yay or nay?  15 homers and 20 steals in 2010, you taking the over or under for each?

I’d say a push on those numbers for Maybin. I think 15 homers is a very good possibility, but may be around his upper limit for this season. I have a feeling like he won’t be pushing the basepaths so much this year, so I may take the under on those 20 steals. His spot in the lineup will be low in the order, and probably won’t give a whole lot of SB opportunities.

2) Josh Johnson showed up on the Verducci list.  We have our own take on Verducci. I’m sure this gives you pause on Johnson in 2010, but how much?

I have a little concern for Josh Johnson, but not enough to label him a major injury risk. He did seem to tire at the end of last season, but the peripherals were solid into the late months, and I would not take any month splits too seriously anyway. I think you’re looking at another excellent year for JJ.

3) Ricky Nolasco’s K/BB is a thing of beauty.  His FIP last year says he’s extremely unlucky.  I think if he avoids injury, he can be great.  What’s your prediction for Nolasco for 2010?

My thoughts on Nolasco’s 2010 performance? 3.80 or so ERA, strikeouts on 22% of his batters faced, walks in 6% or so of his batters faced, and a very happy fantasy owner. I share your sentiment on Nolasco being very good in 2010.

4) Is Gaby Sanchez the opening day starter?  What kind of numbers do you see from him in 2010?

Gaby Sanchez is likely to be the Opening Day starter at first base, but I don’t expect a whole lot. Projections have him at around the same wOBA as Jorge Cantu, but he won’t have the RBI opportunities to rack up good numbers in that respect. I also don’t think he’ll play the full season, since I think the Marlins will find someone to hit righties occasionally for him. Expect some 450 PA and maybe 12 home runs and a solid average and OBP.

5) The Marlins seem to change their stadium’s name every year.  This year they will play at Sun Life Stadium (subject to change depending on post time), which was previously Land Shark Stadium, Dolphin Stadium, Dolphins Stadium, Pro Player Stadium, Pro Player Park and Joe Robbie Stadium.  What do you think the name of their 2011 stadium will be?  A) Mets South Stadium B) The Very Humidor  C) Obama’s Health Care Park D) Does it matter, no one goes anyway.

I’ll take the last choice. I’m going to a game or two this year, but I don’t live down there, so I have an excuse. Get out there and watch the Marlins at (insert name here) Stadium!