Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [95 – 67] NL West – best record in NL
AAA: [80 – 64] Pacific Coast League
AA: [ 65 – 74] Southern League
A+: [59 – 81] California League
A: [81 – 59] Midwest League
R: [24 – 32] Arizona League
R: [42 – 34] Pioneer League

The Run Down

After several years in the top 10, the Dodgers farm ranking fell significantly due to several trades (Manny Ramirez, Ronnie Belliard) and a significant lack of a promising young prospect. In the past, the Dodgers were able to recovery from poor trades (Joel Guzman traded for Julio Lugo) because of a deep pool of talent. With the graduations of Kershaw, Billingsley, Kemp, Ethier, Loney and Russell Martin, the Dodgers farm isn’t quite as bountiful this year. However, they still have a few young power arms that are moving their way through the minors. When the Dodgers acquired George Sherrill for third baseman Josh Bell and pitcher Steve Johnson the Dodgers lost their top third base prospect and a mid-level pitcher who had a fine year. The Dodgers have a couple of top prospects that are nearing the majors, number one ranked Andrew Lambo (Double-A) and fourth ranked Josh Lindblom (Double and Triple-A).

Graduated Prospects
#2 – (P) James McDonald; #5 – (P) Scott Elbert #12 – (RP) Ramon Troncoso; (RP) Ronald Belisario

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Javy Guerra, Eric Krebs, Aaron Miller, Travis Schlichting (received September call-up)
Hitters – (C) Lucas May, (C) Jessi Meir, (1B) Russ Mitchell (won AFL Sportsmanship Award), (SS/2B) Justin Setters, (LF) Andrew Lambo, (CF) Trayvon Robinson

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Andrew Lambo | LF | AA | 20 | .256/.311/.407 | 492 AB | 39 2B | 11 HR | .151 ISO | 95:35 K:BB | .298 BABIP
Scouting the Unknown article in September laid him out pretty well. He slashed .330/.365/.484 in the AFL this fall. Overall, it was a pretty underwhelming season for the Dodgers top prospect. Though keep his age in context; he was a couple of years younger than his competition. However, a September call-up looks like the best case scenario for 2010. He should report back to Double-A in 2010 with a potential promotion to Triple-A in mid-June.

#7 – Devaris Gordon | SS | A | 21 | .301/.362/.394 | 538 AB | 17 2B | 12 3B | 3 HR | .093 ISO | 73/25 SB/CS | 90:43 K:BB | .357 BABIP
The son of Tom “Flash” Gordon went the route of running as fast as his father could throw. He has been timed running 60 yards in 6.3 seconds. (For reference, Tyson Gillies mentioned in last week’s Seattle Minor League Review, ran 30 yards (from the batter’s box to first) in 3.8 seconds.) Looks like Gordon put his speed to work, stealing 73 bases in 140 games. Baseball America said that the only thing holding him back from being a major league ready shortstop is himself. His defense is immaculate (although he did have 34 errors) and he is able to move to both sides. Reminds me of Elvis Andrus, except faster.

Pitchers
#4 – Josh Lindblom | SP (RH) | AA/AAA | 22 | 7.7 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 96 1/3 IP | 3.83 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 1.04 GO/AO | .306/.295 BABIP (AA/AAA)
Mentioned in a September Scouting the Unknown, Lindblom looked impressive across two levels in 2009. He actually improved his strikeout rate from Double to Triple-A by over 1 K/9 (7.22 to 8.31 K/9). Although he isn’t the top ranked pitching prospect for the Dodgers, he does have the best fastball (as of 2009 rankings) and is the closest top prospect to immediately helping the Dodgers in 2010. Look for him to start in Triple-A with a mid-summer call up, especially if there is an injury.

#3 – Ethan Martin | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 10.8 K/9 | 5.5 BB/9 | 100 IP | 3.87 ERA [3.45 FIP] | 1.46 WHIP | .89 GO/AO | .333 BABIP
Yet another Dodger I mentioned in a September Scouting the Unknown (the same one as Lambo). He needs to harness that power fastball of his (92 to 94 mph with late movement) to become successful. Keep in mind that he was mainly a third baseman in high school and only pitched his senior year, meaning he still has a lot to learn. However, 100 innings in his first year means he probably shouldn’t pitch more than 130 next year.

#9 – Chris Withrow | SP (RH) | A/A+ | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.5 BB/9 | 113 2/3 IP | 4.51 ERA [3.68 FIP] | 1.42 WHIP | 1.14 GO/AO | .301 BABIP
The 2008 top draft pick has started to pick it up. He has a 92 to 94 mph fastball that has topped 98 before. Additionally, he has a power curve and a “clean delivery.”

Honorable Mentions
Trayvon Robinson | CF | A+/AA | 21 | .300/.373/.493 | 527 | 29 2B | 11 3B | 17 HR | .193 ISO | 47/20 SB/CS | 143:60 K:BB | .391/.324 BABIP (A+/AA)
Hit .241/.353/.402 in the AFL this fall. He only had 70 AB at Double-A. If he produces at Double-A like he did at High-A, which is highly unlikely as the California League is a hitter’s haven, he’ll have legit major league potential.

Scott Van Slyke | RF | A+ | 22 | .294/.372/.534 | 496 AB | 42 2B | 23 HR | .240 ISO | 128:61 K:BB | .357 BABIP
Like teammate Robinson, Van Slyke hit extremely well in the California League. Matter of fact, this was easily his best year in his entire career. He’ll have to hit like this at Double-A if he wants to be a fourth major league outfielder.

Um, yeah.  Ain’t that what I’ve been saying?  Since that Scouting the Unknown, Heyward moved up the Braves minor league ranks.  Hitting at a .352/.446/.611 clip at Double-A in 47 games, then .364/.462/.364 in only three games at Triple-A.  Sample size be damned!  Heyward can hit with power and has speed.  He had a leg injury in the AFL, but it shouldn’t hinder him for 2010.  He’ll be a first rounder in fantasy at some point in the near future.  My guess would be 2012 (assuming the Mayans are wrong).  Barring any trades this offseason for outfield pieces, the Braves could use Heyward immediately.  Okay, I’ll rephrase.  The Braves could use a productive Heyward.  As Schafer proved last April, the Braves will give a chance to a rookie, but he must produce.  I could see Heyward staying in the minors until June or breaking camp with the team.  If Heyward comes out of the gate galloping his pony sticks and mollywhopping with his man hands, he could give you a very cheap 12/20 season.  I like him late in mixed leagues if he has a starting gig out of Spring Training.  In keepers, he’s a must have and I could see drafting him in one year NL-Only leagues even if he starts the year in the minors.  I.e. My love is still strong on Jason Heyward for 2010 fantasy baseball.

10-7/4.42/1.35/102 in 128 and a 1/3 innings.  Wow, pretty specific on the predictions, huh?  Actually, those are David Price’s numbers in 2009.  I tell you that line so you keep expectations in check.  Neftali Feliz is going to be a great one.  I think there’s a good chance that he can throw 130 innings in 2010 (whether the Rangers start him in the rotation or bullpen or bring him up in June is still unknown).  He’s capable of a terrific 130 innings.  There’s a chance, at least.  Chance being the key word.  Rookie pitchers, even ones that have nasty stuff, are a risk.  Don’t expect a sub-2 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP over the course of the season.  The nice thing is he can strikeout one guy per inning.  There will likely be hiccups.  There always is.  There’s also rumblings that he might get moved to the bullpen to be groomed to be the closer.  I doubt it happens, but those are rumblings you should be aware of.  To be conservative, I’d say Neftali Feliz’s 2010 is 130 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 120 Ks.  Definitely someone that can be a solid number 3 to 4 in fantasy.  Upside, I’d say his 2010 looks like Tommy Hanson’s 2009.  So if you can get Feliz, you should be happy. (Spanish pun point for Grey.)

After stealing 30+ bases for two straight years, Grady looked like Kendry Morales on the basepaths, stealing only 13 bases in 21 attempts.  There’s a reason for that.  He suffered the groin issue/sports hernia or groinia back in spring training of 2009, so naturally he wasn’t running like he used to.  Consider this, he still stole 13 bases with a groinia.  You wouldn’t even be able to open a jar of pickles.  With the problem corrected, he should steal at least 20 bases again.  Then consider the elbow problem he was dealing with for most of the season.  He still hit 18 homers with that.  The average was anemic at .248.  But he also dealt with some bad luck, so that should go back up to his career norms, think .270.  For 2010, I could see Sizemore giving a 110/27/80/.270/25 line with a chance for more and returning 2nd round value.  He is definitely a keeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.

There’s no reason for the Indians to rush Santana.  His defense is shoddy with a chance of meatballs.  I don’t think we see him until June 1st at the earliest.  If he breaks camp with the team, he’ll be a quality sleeper in mixed leagues, 12 or deeper.  But really that’s only true because of his position.  If he were in the outfield, I’d tell you to ignore him in mixed leagues.  Best case scenario, 60/13/75/.280 in 400 at-bats.  Actually, now that I write that down, that seems pretty implausible.  (Sidenote:  As with most of these rookie posts, I wrote them about a month ago then reread them to make sure they’re still, ya know, gold.  Since I wrote this, Bill James’s projections have arrived.  He has Santana down for 16 homers in 500 at-bats.  Now that seems implausible.)  If Santana starts the year in the minors, he should be ignored in all leagues, except AL-Only and keeper ones.  In mixed leagues, you don’t want to hold an extra catcher for two months waiting for him to come up.  If you think you do, ask someone who drafted Matt Wieters last year.  Game, set, natch.

Records of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [85 – 77] AL West
AAA: [74 – 70] Pacific Coast League
AA: [62 – 78] Southern League
A+: [83 – 57] California League
A: [69 – 68] Midwest League
A(ss): [39 – 37] Northwest
R: [28 – 36] Appalachian League
R: [33 – 22] Pioneer League

The Run Down
Seattle had a massive turn around from 2008 when they were 61 – 101. With Bill Bavasi ousted, the new General Manager, Jack Zduriencik did an amazing job restructuring and rebuilding on the fly to create a competitive team. Trading J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green to the Mets for Endy Chavez and Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez helped shaped one of the most impressive defensive outfields all season – not to mention acquiring Jack Wilson (who they resigned for 2 yr/$10 million) and ridding himself of Yuniesky Betancourt. However, during Bavasi tenure (from 2004 to 2008), he traded away prospects, signed players and, in general, mismanaged the Mariners franchise. The epicenter of his ineptitude was trading Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Christ Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Eric Bedard who just came off a career year.

Nevertheless, life happens and people move on. The Mariners seem to have a logjam of outfielders in their minors (Greg Halman, Tyson Gillies, Michael Saunders, and Carlos Peguero) that are either highly ranked prospects or produced well this year. However, beyond a few stud position players, they lack a truly dominant ace. Phillippe Aumont has been moved into the bullpen to be groomed as a closer and their one dominant-looking pitcher (Michael Pineda) was ravaged by injuries this year. With all these performing outfielders, look for Seattle to make some trades this year that will allow their prospects to be promoted up a level – I am looking at you, Mr. Peguero. A random nugget of trivia – Seattle’s High-A team hit 164 homers leading the California League (which happens to be the Pacific Coast League’s little brother and carries on the family tradition of being a hitters league). The next closest team, a Texas affiliate hit 144 homers.

Graduating Prospects (Called-up Players)
#13 – (C) Rob Johnson; #2 – (OF) Michael Saunders; (SP) Doug Fister; (SP) Luke French; (SP) Chris Jakubuaska; #14 – (RP) Shawn Kelley

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Phillippe Aumont; Josh Fields (2008 #1 Draft Pick); Nick Hill; Anthony Varvaro
Hitters – (SS) Juan Diaz; (1B) Joe Dunigan; Dustin Ackley (2009 #1 Draft Pick)

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Greg Halman | CF | AA | 21 | .210/.278/.420 | 457 AB | 17 2B | 25 HR | .210 ISO | 9/7 SB/CS | 183:29 K: BB | .285 BABIP
After reducing his strikeout rates from 41.2% in 2007 to roughly 29% in 2008, Halman pushed his strikeout rate back up to 40% this year. Additionally, his BABIP wasn’t extremely low either, so there is no fluke factor pointing at his low average. Without strong plate discipline, pitchers can make Halman chase a pitch outside the zone. Considered the “Best Athlete” in the Mariners system and having been compared to Andre Dawson and Alfonso Soriano, some of his expectations should be reigned in. Look for him to repeat Double-A again next year and possibly a promotion to Triple-A if all goes well.

#20 – Tyson Gillies | CF | A+ | 21 | .341/.430/.486 | 498 AB | 17 2B | 14 3B | 9 HR | .145 ISO | 44/19 SB/CS | 81:61 K: BB | .395 BABIP
Gillies can scoot. He has been recorded to make it from home to first-base in 3.8 seconds (scores an 80 on a 20 – 80 scale; and he is the fastest player in Seattle’s minor league system). With this speed, his outfield defense is beyond stellar with a plus-arm to boot – actually the best arm for all of Seattle’s prospects. Most Mariner scouts believe he has a good “feel” for the strike zone, and this year he finally put it all together. Not exceptionally powerful, he was able to push a few over the fence. However, 61% of his contacted balls were on the ground. He still needs to improve his stealing percent. Expect to see Gillies in Double-A in 2010 and possibly in the majors if any major injuries occur because of his stellar defense.

Carlos Peguero | CF | A+ | 22 | .271/.335/.560 | 491 AB | 21 2B | 14 3B | 31 HR | .289 ISO | 3/4 SB/CS | 172:42 K: BB | .354 BABIP
Second in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston in the California League this year. Peguero exploded onto the scene after only hitting 12 homers in 2008. With Gillies manning center field at the same level, and Greg Halman right above both of these players, I would imagine Halman or Peguero will get traded this winter. Peguero strikes out a lot and this was his second go at High-A (because of Halman). Nevertheless, 66 extra-base hits are still impressive. He should start 2010 at Double-A.

Pitchers
#3 – Phillippe Aumont | RP (LH) | A+/AA | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 33 1/3 IP | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 1.37 GO/AO | .263/.436 BABIP
Mentioned him in a StU in September. He’ll probably open 2010 at Double-A and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him in the latter parts of the summer.

Nick Hill | SP (LH) | AA | 24 | 9.4 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 95 2/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 1.97 GO/AO | .318 BABIP
MLB wrote an article talking about how he was a pitcher at West Point – it also mentions his AFL stats, which aren’t looking very good. It’s very encouraging to see an almost two-to-one ground ball – fly ball ratio. He is a mid-level prospect at best and I wouldn’t envision hearing his name in many circles around baseball. However, Joel Pineiro isn’t sexy and he gets the job done. Hill could have success if he can keep the ball on the ground.

#10 – Michael Pineda | SP (RH) | A+ | 20 | 9.7 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 44 1/3 IP | 2.84 ERA | .80 WHIP | 1.69 GO/AO | .252 BABIP
I will let Marc Hulet do all the work here because he did an awesome job describing Pineda. He looks like an unheralded stud in the making.

Honorable Mentions
Alex Liddi | 3B | A+ | 21 | .345/.411/.594 | 493 AB | 44 2B | 23 HR | .249 ISO | 122:53 K:BB | .422 BABIP
This Italian’s numbers are highly inflated with an astronomically high BABIP (it’s nearly .100 points higher than his previous high at Single-A. He has played Single-A from ages 17 to 19 and finally moved up to High-A this year (he just recently turned 21). Another positive trend is that he has reduced his strikeout rate from 30.8% in 2007 to 24.7% this year while improving his walk-rate from 8.3% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2009 (not a huge increase, but definitely worth noting).

Joe Dunigan | 1B/RF/DH | A+ | 23 | .294/.355/.570 | 456 AB | 28 2B | 30 HR | .249 ISO | 20/8 SB/SB | .350 BABIP
Third in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston and teammate Peguero in the California League this year, Dunigan mashed his was to mid-level prospect status. Another positive asset is his ability to steal. With Mike Carp as the only first baseman ahead of Dunigan in the rankings, Dunigan may have a chance to prove his worth more in the long run as Carp has never been nearly as powerful. Speaking of which…

#17 – Mike Carp | 1B | AAA | 23 | .271/.372/.446 | 413 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .174 ISO | 99:58 K:BB | .324 BABIP
He has never hit more than 19 homers in a season (short season) and then 17 in a full season (High-A in the Florida State League). Upon promotion to the majors this September, Carp hit .315/.415/.463 in 53 AB. With Russell Branyan rejecting Seattle’s most recent contract, Carp may get placed into the limelight sooner rather than later. He was acquired in the Putz trade and has been compared to Mike Jacobs with better plate awareness and much better defense – though he is still an average defender at best. If he gets a chance out of spring training to start for the Mariners expect Conor Jackson-like numbers from 2007: 60/15/75/.275.

#5 – Juan Ramirez | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 7 K.9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 142 1/3 IP | 5.12 ERA (4.76 FIP) | 1.45 WHIP | 1.15 GO/AO | .317 BABIP
Has a 92 to 93 mph heater that has tip the scales to the tune of 97 mph before. He is still more a thrower than pitcher.

#21 – Gaby Hernandez | SP (RH) | AAA | 23 | 6 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 5.23 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | .69 GO/AO | .311 BABIP
Gives up a ton of fly-balls and gopher balls (1.3 HR/9 at Triple-A) and hasn’t been impressive in quite some time (since 2006 and 2007 at High-A).

#6 – Adam Moore | C | AA/AAA | 25 | .287/.352/.425 | 435 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .148 ISO | 72:42 K:BB | .310/.325 BABIP
Could potentially challenge Rob Johnson for starting catcher next spring. Moore is the better hitter but his defense isn’t even near Johnson’s.

What do Chad Tracy, Tony Clark, Conor Jackson, Josh Whitesell, Rusty Ryal and Chris Snyder have in common?  They suck.  They also played 1st base for the Diamondbacks at some point in 2009.  (Mark Reynolds played 28 games at 1st too, but I have it on good authority he wants to play 3rd… Actually, I don’t have it on any authority.  I’m educated-guessing here.  The Diamondbacks would be better with Reynolds at 3rd and Allen at 1st.)  So over the top rope comes the big-boned Brandon Allen.  He should get an ample opportunity in Spring Training to win the job.  If he can break camp with the Diamondbacks, he’ll be a solid sleeper for power in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper at a corner infidel spot.  In NL-Only leagues, he’ll be draftable as a sleeper 1st baseman.  He should provide power, if nothing else.  You’re looking at a 20 homer hitter with a chance for a bit more.  He’ll probably hurt you on average, but what else is new from a Diamondhack hitter?  Windmills were once used for pumping water through primitive irrigation systems.  Maybe the swings and misses are how the Diamondbacks keep the hot tub bubbling in the right field stands at Chase Field.

The similarities are both his pluses and minuses.  If Crawford is in left field and Upton is in center, does Jennings play short center?   Few things can happen, Crawford gets moved so Jennings can do exactly the same thing in his stead.  Jennings gets held back in the minors because there’s no room right now for him.  Or the Rays go with the All-Drool outfield of Upton, Crawford and Jennings; I’m sure this is the option Rays pitchers want.  Now things don’t always work out, remember I was caca-cuckoo for Cameron Maybin in the preseason last year.  If Jennings gets the call to start in the beginning of the year, I’d own him in ten team mixed leagues.  Shoot, I’m ready to take him in NL-Only leagues for s’s and g’s.  If he gets the every day job, this won’t be the last you’ve heard of him.  He’s exactly the kind of rookie that can have an immediate impact for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Quick, somebody make Crawford glue, I have pictures to paste!

In 433 at-bats last year, McCutchen hit 12 homers with 22 steals while batting .286.  Below those numbers, we see a guy who consistently hits the ball on the ground more than in the air in 2009 and 2008 (in Triple-A, his GB vs. FB percentages were 49.4 vs. 32.2).  This is good for a guy who relies on his speed to get on base.  The power he showed last year may be slightly fluky.  After all, he did hit 8 homers in August, which seems extreme for him.  I.e., I wouldn’t expect a huge gain in homers in 2010.  Maybe 15 homers max.  His walk rate was a bit high last year, but he did show a good eye for when he should/should not swing.  With his speed and 15 homer power, he’s definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper.  Think 80/14/65/.275/35.  For redraft leagues, The Dread Pirate can be someone who can provide more value than his draft spot, potentially taking a jump into the top 20 outfielders for 2010… Top 20 outfielders for 2010.  Aye, me parrot concurs.

I expect him to be given a chance in Spring Training to show off his ginourmous power, but be sent to Double-A to start the season.  If he can make the necessary adjustments, we can see him around mid-season.  For all their frugality, the Marlins aggressively promote/play their prospects (then trade them when they hit arbitration. Lates, Uggla.).  He’ll only be 20 in 2010 and still might be a full year away from contributing in fantasy.  I wouldn’t touch Stanton in one year leagues until he is definitely playing on the Marlins.  In deep NL-Only and keeper leagues, he should be owned coming out of your 2010 fantasy baseball draft.