He has a good fastball, but when Peacock is working off the curve his balls can be all over the place.  I’m sorry, I need to pause to giggle.   Okay, back to business.  Usually Peacock gets so worked up when he’s promoted… Okay, I need to just call him “he” otherwise I’ll never get through this post.  He tends to lose control and his ratios take a hit when he’s first promoted.  I’m thinking it’s because he gets over-excited.  Hopefully, he only has these issues for the first 40 innings.  That’s how long it usually lasts.  Luckily, his home park is very forgiving.  The exciting thing about him — the Ks.  C’mon, you knew that was coming.  He had a 11+ K/9 in Double-A and a 9 K/9 in Triple-A.  If he only gives a 7+ K/9, I’m still buying.  With some command issues, but nice Ks and no wins on the A’s, I see his line at 9-8/3.60/1.30/170.  Optimistic, but completely doable.  Peacock isn’t just a command a foul-mouthed old man will shout at the urinal, he’s a great sleeper for 2012 fantasy baseball.

41. Carlos Beltran – This tier started in the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball and ends at Ichiro.  I called this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  If you get 140 games from Beltran, then you’re going to get a solid 3rd outfielder.  But if that “if” had hips it would drop it like it’s hot and never get up again.  On a side note, how awesome would it be if during Spring Training, the Cards have a split squad game and Wainwright throws Beltran nothing but knee-buckling curves?  2012 Projections:  65/18/80/.275/7

42. Nick Swisher – I’m not super excited about Swisher when I look at his ground ball rate going up and his fly ball rate going down, but I do like his side burns.  If Luke Perry were a ballplayer and I were Jennie Garth and we both hated Shannen Doherty then… Well, I have no idea where this is going so I’ll stop now.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.270

43. Carlos Quentin – A guy that has 30 homer power + Injuries + Petco = Death + Breathing.  2012 Projections:  60/22/75/.250/3

44. Ichiro Suzuki – I was telling people to avoid Ichiro for years and it seems like the public perception of him has finally caught up to my reality.  To incorrectly quote Drake’s lyrics, “Ichiro has faded way too long, he’s floatin’ in and out of public consciousness.”  Crazy for me to say, but I think Ichiro is slightly undervalued now.  Is he that different than Brett Gardner?  Yeah, maybe a tad.  Fielders sic Ichiro’s choppers and his gams aren’t what they were, but he doesn’t look done done, just maybe medium done.  2012 Projections:  80/6/40/.310/30

45. Jose Tabata – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Fowler.  I call this tier, “At least two of these guys will break out and shoot up the rankings for 2013.”  Even in his tizzerible 2011 season, Tabata still was on pace for 25+ steals if he got in a full season.  Also, he hit 4 homers.  Is he going to be a 15/40 guy?  Nah, not likely.  But 7/30 with a solid average and runs is… Okay, you know what I’m most worried about.  How am I gonna find players I’m excited about for the top 80 outfielder post?  Seriously, the entire top 80 outfielder post might be just one giant tier of guys I don’t like since I’m only at the 45th ranked outfielder and I’m hardly building much enthusiasm.  This is an issue.  Okay, enough negativism.  Tabata is one of my best bets to shoot up the rankings from this tier.  He has some power, steals bases and isn’t an average drain.  2012 Projections:  90/7/50/.285/30

46. Austin Jackson – Jackson is basically Tabata with the possibility of an average drain.  Jackson’s K-rate is tizzerible so he’ll need to luck into an average over .260.  With Fielder inserted into the Tigers lineup, opposing pitchers will have to attack the first two hitters in the Tigers lineup.  Keep that in mind when you read Boesch’s blurb, I may or may not repeat it.  You’ll have to wait and see!  2012 Projections:  100/9/50/.260/27

47. Delmon Young – Let’s see what Young has going for him.  1) He was good after his trade to the Tigers. 2) He’s out of Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome.  3) He’s still only 26 years old.  4) There’s no 4.  5) He can fling a bat at an ump better than most.  Now, let’s see what he has going against him.  1) 4 of 5 seasons in the majors have been yawnstipating.  2) Blimpotence. 3) A hideous walk rate. 4) Still no 4.  5) He can fling a bat at an ump better than most.  2012 Projections:  70/17/80/.285/3

48. Cameron Maybin – Some may say that Maybin already broke out last year, so why is he so low on my rankings?  Some may be right, but you want to rely on Padres hitters?  Yeah, me neither.  Put Maybin on the Rockies and I’d have him in the top 25 outfielders.  2012 Projections:  75/7/35/.255/30

49. Lorenzo Cain – From this tier, Cain has the most upside, but he also has the most downside.  I mean, he’s gonna be 26 years old and he’s still yet to break into the majors.  Capricorns are late bloomers, but Cain is an Aries so I have no New Agey reason why he’s looking like a career minor leaguer.  But if I needed to shoehorn in a New Agey reason… An Aries is a Ram, it’s quality is a Cardinal and it’s element is Fire.  So it seems like Cain should play for the St. Louis Cardinals with their fire-red uniforms, but his planet is Mars, which has “ram” in it backwards.  Now the opposite of fire-red is ice blue and if you face St. Louis behind you is Kansas City.  So this is his year!   As of right now, he’s set to play center in Kay Cee and bat leadoff.  The table has been set, now it’s up to Cain to step up to the plate.  2012 Projections:  80/8/50/.280/25

50. Lucas Duda – This is more of a general point for upside outfielders than specifically about Duda.  The lack of enthusiasm you hear in my typees as I write up these blurbs is that some of these upside outfielders are on the Pirates, Padres, Royals and Mets.  Um, yay?  I’m not a Mets hater as some have accused me of, but Metco has a well-warranted bad rep.  Maybe the fences coming in will change all of that and we’ll be calling for a humidor in Metco.  One can hope, I suppose.  2012 Projections:  75/20/85/.280/3 (<–optimistic and still kinda whatever)

51. Brennan Boesch – If Boesch gets in a whole season, he could get you 25 homers and 10 steals.  Assuming he doesn’t take a dump in the 2nd half of the year or get injured.  To summarize what I said about twelve words ago in Spanglish, sin dumpo o mal healtho, then bueno.  2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.270/7

52. Dexter Fowler – One year with the Rockies, he stole 27 bags.  One year in the minors, he hit 9 homers.  Mark him down as a sleeper and move on (without mentioning he was caught stealing nine times last year and only successful 12 times).  Hey, it took me saying Maybin was a sleeper for 3 years before he finally broke out, maybe this is Fowler’s time.  You know, even a broken clock is right twice a day.  That’s more than Matthew Berry.  2012 Projections:  90/7/50/.270/20

53. Jeff Francoeur – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Joyce.  I call this tier, “Price is too steep for guys coming off career years so I’m probably going to miss out on these schmohawks.”  22 steals last year while being caught 10 times is, how do they say it?  Terrible.  So put that back to the 5-7 steals that he’s actually good for and you have a guy that has worse plate discipline than someone on The Biggest Loser with the upside of Vernon Wells.  Yes, his ceiling is Vernon Wells.  Sorry for the shot of reality.  2012 Projections:  70/22/80/.260/7

54. Melky Cabrera – Another guy with the caught stealing percentage that could even turn Joe Morgan against the steal.  Can we please get Michael Lewis to write a Dayton Moore book?  Call it “No Moneyball.”  Chapter 1:  Willie Bloomquist, Chief Justice of the Supreme Crap.  Chapter 2:  Stealing — If At First You Don’t Succeed, Try and Try Again.  2012 Projections:  75/14/65/.270/15

55. Matt Joyce – He hit 12 homers in the first half with a May where he donged 7 dingers.  I loved him then.  It was like a shawl made of a giant mustache wrapped around both of our shoulders as we watched When Harry Met Sally in an outdoor screening in a park.  There’s a very outside chance I end up with Matt Joyce on a team or two this year if he goes for cheap enough.  I don’t think he comes close to his 2011, but if he can start the year hot again, then maybe you can get a couple months of production and flip him for a Brain Freeze.  2012 Projections: 55/17/65/.265/10

56. Brandon Belt – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 80 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “You may get a top 20 outfielder from any of these guys.  Or a guy you want to drop by April 15th.”  I went over Brandon Belt’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

57. Eric Thames – With a full season of at-bats, Thames stands to have a huge break out…Or he’ll hit 20 homers and .250.  Right now, he’s in the 2 hole — not that there’s anything wrong with being in the two hole — while Rasmus is in the 7 hole.  Heresy!   Blasphemy!  Other words in the thesaurus!  I imagine Rasmus and Thames will flip-flop by May at the latest, possibly as soon as Opening Day.  Either the hoo, we’re just talking about runs vs. RBIs…Or are we?!  Yeah, we probably are, but Thames may see better pitches in the two hole.  It’s worth noting, so I did.  Worth Noting, II:  The Return of Worth Noting, the Blue Jays have, like, a dozen outfielders.  I like Thames for power, which is also called hydroelectricity.  Al Gore invented that.  After the internet.  2012 Projections:  70/20/75/.255/5

58. Yonder Alonso – Went over my Alonso projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

59. Nolan Reimold – I already went over my Nolan Reimold 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it prior to the O’s being boneheads and getting Betemit.  Play some Bruno Mars in the O’s front office and send in Tyler the Creator to kill everyone.  I think Reimold will still get his 500 ABs because Betemit will play some 3rd, isn’t an everyday player and Chris Davis is at 1st.  Only people that know how well Davis will do at 1st is your deity of choice and Bill James, which might be the same thing in some circles. (Which should not to be confused with Google Circles.  BTW, if Google+’s whole point was to see how fast people will abandon a social networking site, it’s a success.)  2012 Projections:  65/24/80/.250/10

60. Roger Bernadina – If I didn’t get burned by Bernadina last year, he might’ve showed up higher on these rankings.  Ooh, hold on, someone’s knocking on my door.  “Hey, it’s Excitement For Bernadina here.  I just moved into the building and wanted to say you shouldn’t give up hope on Bernadina.  He should be starting this year.”  Me, “The Nats sent Bernadina down last year and decided to start Brian Bixler.  If you know who Brian Bixler is, you’re related to him.”  Excitement For Bernadina, “I know, that was a tough blow.”  Me, “Blow?  Sending down Bernadina and starting Bixler was the equivalent of Bixler taking a bat and hitting Bernadina in the balls – assuming Bixler would actually make contact.”  Excitement For Bernadina, “I appreciate you, Grey Albright.  Please give Bernadina another chance.  Us Excitement For Bernadina’s have to stick together.  By the way, did you see a package from Amazon by my door?  It’s missing.”  Me, “Nope.”  2012 Projections:  55/10/65/.260/20

The blue chips at the position are all still near the top, but the position has seen a bit of a changing of the guard. New faces sit atop the position, with Carlos Santana (of Maria Maria fame) first in ADP, and Mike Napoli coming in a close second. I love Santana all things being equal, but I’m hesitating from him at that price tag. Same goes for Napoli, who was stunning in a full season of action finally free of Anaheim tyranny. If pinned up against the wall into drafting a top 5 catcher, I’d much rather the 3-4-5 class that consists of McCann, Mauer and Posey given their value. Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters round out the crop of catchers that go in the top 10 rounds of standard drafts.

But I digress — the purpose of this piece is to elucidate the depth at the catcher position this year. So let’s take a long look at the situation you would find yourself in if you had waited to draft a catcher until after round 10 of our theoretical standard league. Before we get into some nitty gritty, let’s play a bit a numbers game based on 2012 projections (courtesy of Bill James and Fangraphs):

Player 1- .231 54-24-73-1
Player 2- .274 60-17-73-1
Player 3- .252 51-19-67-0
Player 4- .281 66-21-76-1

Two of these players have ADPs in the top 10 rounds and two have ADPs in our late round bargain bin. You can probably guess that the higher averages belong to the higher tiered players.  Player 1 = JP Arrencibia, Player 2 = Miguel Montero, Player 3 = Geovany Soto, Player 4 = Matt Wieters, but the other counting stats look pretty close to me. And since batting average is the highest variance statistic used in fantasy baseball, basing a strategy of drafting a top tiered catcher based on 20 points of average seems foolish. This trend is further recapitulated by a variety of late rounders with 15-20 HR power and/or other useful skills (Russel Martin, for example — how his ADP is in the 200s is beyond me).

But you may say, “Sure, those projections look similar, but what about upside? Matt Wieters has a lot more upside than Geovany Soto!” and that is obviously a fair point. However, true “breakouts” at catcher are rare, at least breakouts such that they can win you a league. I’d much rather use my 7th round pick on that upside outfielder who may go 30-30 than blow it on a catcher who may hit 30 HRs if the stars align just right, especially if I can get a nice floor of production later on.

For those of you that love deep sleepers or are just among the unlucky few of us forced to play in a 2 catcher league, there are numerous names at the end of your draft that could pay huge dividends as well. Devin Mesoraco, Wilin Rosario and Yasmani Grandal are names to keep an eye on, as is Jesus Montero (if he is eligible in your league). These guys are top prospects who are at various degrees of proximity to breaking into the big leagues. While it is unlikely that any of them make a huge impact in 2012 (especially early on), they still have sizeable upside to couple with one of the solid but unspectacular names above.

The purpose of this piece was not to espouse a certain name at the catcher position that was a must-have value. I hoped to put forth a methodology for approaching one of the games trickier positions. I am not saying that one should ignore the top tiers of catchers; on the contrary, situations may in fact arise where the value of one of those names becomes too great to pass up. However, catcher is also one of those positions that lends itself well to the “Oh crap, I don’t have a catcher — time to reach!” mistake picks.  If you can land a top 5 catcher at a discount, mazel tov! Hopefully after reading this, you won’t panic after failing to land one of those names, and instead remain patient to pluck the useful value player late in your draft.

21. Krispie Young – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Kendrick.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Krispie is another guy that I kinda wanted to move to another tier and he’s even pretty far below Stubbs (though it sure doesn’t seem that way in these rankings).  What Krispie has going for him that Beej and Stubbs don’t is 25-plus homer power.  He’s pretty seriously deficient in average though, and when I’m saying that compared to Stubbs and Upton, it’s saying something.  Grey said, “Something.”  See?  2012 Projections:  85/25/80/.235/25

22. Jason Heyward – This is probably the furthest I’m out on a limb with an outfielder.  He could be a worse pick than Markakis.  Last year Heyward hurt his shoulder, then Glass Chipper started questioning his manhood even though Chipper invented the oblique just so he could miss 40 games a year.  Heyward’s BABIP was obscenely low so he should hit at least 40 points higher without much effort.  Hitting for a better average with a healthier shoulder should help him build confidence, move him up in the order and hit for more power.  You could blend those variables together and you may end up with a wheatgrass/kale antioxidant health drink that is supposed to be good for you but just makes you want to vomit.  If at any point in the spring there’s news that his shoulder is still bothering him, I’ll drop him way down in the rankings.  2012 Projections:  80/22/90/.280/10

23. Howie Kendrick – I went over Kendrick’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

24. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gordon.  I call this tier, “I could see myself missing out on these guys because others are believing them more than me.” Most ‘perts are looking at Choo’s 2011 as an aberration.  That wasn’t Soo Choo, that was Soju.  An Asian flush with bad luck.  So last year he had a .317 BABIP (off his career rate, but not really that terrible), a 1o.4% HR/FB (again, not hideous), a 10.1% walk rate (not bad) and a 21.8% K-rate (around his career rate).  He missed a bunch of games because of injury.  If he’s healthy, he’s back to the 17-20 homer, 17-20 steal guy.  Yay.  I don’t know; it’s all right.  I’m not excited to draft him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/85/.280/17

25. Carl Crawford – Last year, things started poorly and went from bad to Mad Libs in the cliche.  Slumps get into guys’ heads and if there isn’t a big girl around to have sex with that slump can last longer than anyone wants.  I’m willing to ignore last year.  Really, I am.  Then the wrist surgery this offseason.  Damn, that wrist got me pist.  Red Sox are reporting he should be ready for Opening Day.  I’m reporting he’s going to miss a month.  There’s a small silver lining.  His wrists aren’t his legs.  Hey, I should’ve gotten better than a C in Human Anatomy!  If he falls, I could see gambling on him, but it’s probably not going to happen if you follow my rankings.  2012 Projections:  75/10/70/.280/30

26. Alex Gordon – Here’s what I said at the end of last year for Gordon, “Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17.  Terrific!  Wonderful!  Tonderific!  But if you peek under the hood, things aren’t as they seem.  His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors.  His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up.  His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected.  He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals.  With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average.  That’s far from spectacular.  That’s spectaculess.  I just made that up; you like it?  You use it.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections:  85/20/100/.280/12

27. Brett Gardner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Rasmus.  I call this tier, “I’m targeting these guys for my teams.  They might all end up getting sleeper posts.  You’ve been forewarned.  (Bee tee dubya, the projections in this tier are a bit optimistic, but I’m sick of hiding my excitement.  Let me free-ball and show you my love!)”  I’m unabashedly a fan of Gardner, which makes very little sense if you’ve read this site for an extended period of time because usually I ignore SAGNOF’ers and just grab one later or off waivers.  To me, Gardner is underrated, which is odd because Yankees are usually overrated.  Gardner is just an enigma wrapped inside a riddle inside a fortune cookie that reads, “Person who sleeps with scratchy rear wakes with smelly finger.” 2012 Projections:  105/8/50/.280/50

28. Jayson Werth – Ponder this, guys and three girl readers, is Werth that different from Corey Hart?  Okay, stop pondering it, your eyes are crossing.  He’s not hitting 35+ homers again like he used to in Citizens Flank, but he should also be better than last year and the Nats offense is looking solid.  Yeah, I know how weird that sounds.  Don’t point out the obvious.  2012 Projections:  75/22/90/.265/15

29. Logan Morrison – His Isolated Power was .221.  Dan Uggla’s was .220.  Paul Konerko’s .217.  Jay Bruce’s .217.  Logan Morrison only hit 23 homers last year.  He missed almost 40 games last year because of injuries and his inability to put the cone of silence on his Twitter account.  He’ll only be 24 years old for the better part of 2012 and the Miami Marlins revamped their lineup by throwing some fabulous moolah around for a World Series ring.   2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.270/5

30. Michael Cuddyer – Went over Cuddyer’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

31. Peter Bourjos – What does it mean that Bourjos is ranked this high?  It means we’re all screwed.  Sorry, don’t mean to yell fire in the theater of Razzball, but outfield is shallower than a conversation with a Kardashian.  I already went over my Bourjos 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while refusing to eat at Subway because it reeks of onions.  2012 Projections: 85/15/50/.255/35

32. Alex Rios – I wrote an Alex Rios 2012 fantasy post.  It pained me to write that post and I hope you forgive me but I felt like it needed to be said.  Now please forget the apology if I’m right or forget that I wrote the post if I’m wrong.  Thanks, over-the-internet friend!  2012 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/22

33. Colby Rasmus – I’m out on serious limbs with some the players’ rankings in this tier.  Just when you thought I was totally out of my gourd with my Rios ranking, here’s Rasmus about 35 spots ahead of where I see some other ‘perts ranking him.  The key thing with drafting is you are drafting for the upcoming year, don’t try and put together a team that would’ve kicked serious booty while bagging last year’s doubloons.  That’s not going to win you something, but hopefully I just learned you something.  Hey, that sounds like a rhyme Pitbull would make.  Blah blah blah Kodak, blah blah blah Kodak.  2012 Projections:  85/22/70/.265/10

34. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ethier.  I call this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft these guys, but I’d rather not.”  On first glance, Corey Hart’s season last year looks okay.  On second glance, his 2010 season of 31 homer, 7 steal 2010 and 2011 of 26/7 look remarkably similar — he simply had 15 less games last year.  On third glance, you see his fly ball rate plummeted and start to think his homer per fly ball rate is unsustainable.  On fourth glance, you start to wonder why you’re looking at Corey Hart’s numbers four times.  On fifth glance, there is no fifth glance.  On sixth glance, you think about how he may not break 75 runs or RBIs without Prince Fielder, fifty games of The Hebrew Herpes and the invariably injured Weeks.  On seventh glance, you accidentally hypnotize yourself and begin to cluck like a chicken in front of an audience of strangers.  2012 Projections:  75/24/70/.265/8

35. Nick Markakis – The last four years his homer totals have been 20, 18, 12, 15.  One of these years he may stand up and say he is Sparkakis, but until then I don’t care to gamble on a guy that is averaging 16 1/4 homers a year.  I mean, who ever even heard of quarter homers?  Those are singles, Nick.  Elevate the ball.  2012 Projections:  80/18/85/.295/10

36. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

37. Andre Ethier – This tier that I’m planning on missing makes an already shallow outfield that much more shallow.  I get that.  That’s why I named this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft…”  I don’t like Ethier, but I can’t turn my nose up at dozens of guys this year.  I don’t buy into Ethier bouncing back to being a top 20 outfielder.  I say if you draft him, you’re going to get a top 30 outfielder at best.  That means he’s ranked near his ceiling.  Opportunity costs will probably have me looking elsewhere.  Hypothetical things that have no weight need to be weighed.  It’s all very scientific.  2012 Projections:  70/22/85/.295

38. Ryan Braun – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Herpes or bust.”  Ryan Braun was either taking medication that he bought from a farmacia in Tijuana to suppress the cold sores he contracted from his Affliction t-shirts which triggered a positive drug test or he bought a performance-enhancing drug from that same Tijuana farmacia.  Your guess = my guess.  For further reading on the subject, check Google images for “Braun junk pictures” or read my Braun 2012 fantasy.  2012 Projections:  55/20/70/.280/12

39. Torii Hunter – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Vernon Wells then starts again in the top 60 for 2012 fantasy baseball so I can sneak in the SAGNOF tier.  I call this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  The guys in this tier are mostly okay, unless you draft your team then get in a DeLorean and play out your fantasy league in 2004.  Then they’re awesome!  Maybe one of the guys in this tier has a Lance Berkman 2011 year.  There always seems to be one, but don’t say you know which guy it is — someone might be listening.  If I had to bet on a surprising year from one vet, I’d go with Torii Hunter.  Lineup’s going to be the best he’s had in a while and he can lamp in the outfield.  Will he definitely surprise like that doode from Community coming out with one of the best albums of 2011?  Nah, but the Torii Hunter gambino won’t cost you much.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.270/7

40. Vernon Wells – Cause crazy talk isn’t just something that I reserve for Alex Rios, I also wrote a Vernon Wells sleeper post.  No, there will be no sleeper post about Todd Helton, but that’s funny and sarcastic.  You’re a double threat!  2012 Projections:  75/25/85/.260/8

40 1/16. Michael Bourn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  I just throw all these schmohawk steals guys in the same tier, because, well, frankly, interjection, they’re the same shizz.  Bourn gets you nothing but steals.  If you think that’s a smart way to build a team, I got a Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley or yadda³ off waivers that says you should follow the SAGNOF theorem of evolution that says these guys ain’t got no face.  Double negatives being damned, and all.  2012 Projections:  90/2/40/.280/50

40 1/8. Emilio Bonifacio – I went over Bonifacio’s projections in the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

40 1/4. Coco Crisp – Coco Crisp could be a cheap Brett Gardner.  Yes, I’m being cereal.  2012 Projections:  65/7/50/.260/35

40 what/fraction-is-this? Nyjer Morgan – Or should I say Tony Plush?  I could see a scenario where Morgan gets confused by not seeing Fielder and Braun and steals two bases in one inning for two different teams.  Sorta like a Joel Youngblood move, only crazier.  2012 Projections:  65/3/30/.270/27

40 3/4. Juan Pierre – Doesn’t have a team yet, but if he gets an everyday job then he’ll give you the usual.  If you don’t know what Juan Pierre gives you fantasy-wise, I have a copper-plated zinc portrait of Lincoln to sell you for $19.99.  2012 Projections:  85/1/40/.285/30

40 7/8. Rajai Davis – Doesn’t have a starting job right now, but didn’t last year and stole 34 bases.  Nothing like a basestealer that has a walk rate under 5%.  Rajai, you can’t steal first base, but you can throw your elbow into a pitch or two.  Keep that in mind.  2012 Projections:  40/1/20/.260/30

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (15) | 2010 (26) | 2009 (25) | 2008 (11) | 2007 (4) | 2006 (4)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [86-76] AL West

AAA: [62-82] Pacific Coast League – Salt Lake

AA: [68-69] Texas League – Arkansas

A+: [69-71] California League – Inland Empire

A: [61-68] Midwest League – Cedar Rapids

R: [46-30] Pioneer League – Orem

The Run Down

Unfortunately for the likes of Mike Trout and Garret Richards, the Angels spent big this offseason, and in turn, they seem to have clogged up any prospect throughways.  Barring injury, I don’t see much opportunity in 2012 for this Los Angeles farm system.  Trout is a top overall prospect and anyone drafting in keepers should definitely consider him.  Richards will compete for the fifth starter role, and there are a handful of arms who could get a chance in the bullpen, but beyond that, there isn’t much fantasy relevance just yet.  Looking a little further ahead, the Angels’ system could yield quite a bit of fantasy production, as Trout and Richards settle into regular roles along with Jean Segura and 2010 first-rounder, Kaleb Cowart.

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions

David Carpenter (RHP); Chris Scholl (RHP); Daniel Tillman (RHP); Jean Segura (SS); Mike Trout (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Mark Trumbo (1B); Hank Conger (C)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Mike Trout | OF:

Quoting Grey Albright: “I’m afraid to report to you, Mike Trout’s not seeing time until 2013.  My Mike Trout 2012 fantasy is missing one caveat — what happens if they sign Albert Effin’ Pujols?  My guess is their outfield is gonna be Hunter, Bourjos and Wells with Abreu platooning in the outfield and at DH […] To recap for fantasy, Pujols is fine, Bourjos is fine, Trumbo is fine if he can play 3rd which seems unlikely, Kendrys is fine if he’s healthy, Abreu is not fine, Mike Trout is not fine.”  After the Pujols acquisition, the Angels appear too crowded accommodate a promotion for their top prospect.  Trout skipped Triple-A entirely and he won’t be 21 ‘til August, so keeping him back seems justifiable.

Alexi Amarista | 2B:

Amarista collected 33 XBH in 396 PA at Triple-A and stole 15 bags along the way.  He’s a slick-fielding second baseman and he’s hit fairly well at every level, aside from a small sample in the bigs.  He shows occasional gap power, but he needs to develop more patience at the plate before he’s ready to contribute in the majors.  Amarista should return to Salt Lake to begin 2012, as the Angels are well equipped at middle infield.

Jeremy Moore | OF:

Moore has the tools, but he’ll need to improve vastly on his plate discipline.  His 4.6 BB% at Triple-A is concerning, but if he can improve on that, he could make a nice third or fourth outfielder down the road.  Moore has 15-20 potential and the Angels have an aging outfield.  Do keep an eye on him.

Pitchers

Garrett Richards | RHP – SP:

Richards’ numbers at Double-A weren’t overly impressive, but in 143 IP he did manage a 3.15 ERA and surrendered just 10 homers.  He earned a late season call up but was forgettable in seven appearances (three starts).  Richards throws a mid-90s fastball, a 12-6 curve, and an occasional changeup.  He’ll need to improve the change before he can truly be effective at the Major League level, but Richards will likely compete for starts at some point this year.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Jean Segura | SS/2B: 

Segura’s development has been slowed by injury, but he’s produced while healthy.  Stephen’s outlook a year ago still holds, although it seems Segura is in line to begin in Double-A this year.

Pitchers

John Hellweg | RHP – SP/RP:

Hellweg posted a 2.12 ERA as a starter in the hitter-friendly California League.  The 6-9 23-year-old throws fastball in the high 90s and counters with a low 80s slider.  The combination draws plenty of strikeouts.  He’ll begin 2012 in Arkansas, but he’ll rise quickly if his dominance continues.

Dan Tillman | RHP – RP:

Tillman sports a similarly devastating fastball-slider combo to Hellweg, however he projects more as a late innings reliever than as a starter.  Perhaps the system’s most promising relief arm, Tillman is a non-roster invitee to big league camp, but he’ll likely begin 2012 in the minors.  Should the Angels’ pen need help at any point, he’ll be among the first considered.

1. Jose Bautista – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Matt Kemp – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. Justin Upton – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

5. Carlos Gonzalez – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

6. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pence.  I call this tier, “These players.  ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’”  The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.

7. Mike Stanton – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

8. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays.  If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit.  2012 Projections:  90/34/100/.270/10

9. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton.  No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out.  People have realized he’s Mr. Glass.  When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs.  When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else.  In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting.  (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.)  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.295/7

10. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz.  I think the market has finally figured out Cruz.  No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own.  2012 Projections:  70/30/85/.260/10

11. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier.  Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls.  Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs.  Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee.  (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.)  2012 Projections:  95/25/100/.280/10

12. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Victorino.  I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers?  This tier I’m going to pass over.”  Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

13. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells.  He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do.  Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday.  I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday?  I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him.  Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings.  2012 Projections:  85/24/90/.305/5

14. Lance Berkman -  Went over Berkman’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

15. Shane Victorino – We had a good run.  Victorino and I.  It’s come to an end.  Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron.  Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected.  His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat.  If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha.  The goodbye version of aloha, that is.  2012 Projections:  85/15/55/.275/20

16. Michael Morse – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

17. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy.  While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window.  2012 Projections:  80/16/65/.275/35

18. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton.  Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom.  (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average.  Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.)  Upton hits for power and steals bases.  I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40.  At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.250/40

19. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him.  But games haven’t started yet?!  Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice.  Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal.  A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.285/12

20. Drew Stubbs – Stubbs isn’t really the same player as Fellatio Upton, so I battled with how to get him out of the same tier.  I battled myself by dunking my hands in two bowls of Jell-O, then thumb-wrestling myself to a ten round draw.  I ended up figuring it was fine to put Stubbs in the same tier but below him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/55/.240/40

For projections in the top 10 for fantasy baseball, I had Swiggy at 105/32/115/.325/3 and Fielder at 90/35/110/.275.  Honestly, I’m not sure how much I could change either projection.  Cabrera had V-Mart behind him when I made those projections, so it wasn’t like he was hitting in front of Nadir Bupkis.  On the other hand, I did think Fielder would go to the Nationals and the NL, so that would’ve suppressed his stats a smidge.  I’m moved him up in the top 10 and I adjusted his stats to 100/37/115/.280.  Maybe now Fielder will dust off the 50-homer plateau just to spite his Papa Bear.  I do not use the term “bear” loosely.

Verducci says this in the 2012 installment:

“The Effect has become easy to see over the years. In just the past six years, for instance, I flagged 55 pitchers at risk for an injury or regression based on their workload in the previous season. Forty-six of them, or 84 percent, did get hurt or post a worse ERA in the Year After.  Two out of the nine pitchers I red flagged last year actually stayed healthy or improved: Gio Gonzalez of Oakland (since traded to Washington) and Ivan Nova of the Yankees. More typical, though, were the regressions last year by David Price, Phil Hughes, Mat Latos and Brett Cecil, all of whom I red-flagged — and all lost life on their fastball and saw their ERA jump by more than half a run.”

I’ll tell you what, that Verducci is his own best critic.  He doesn’t even mention that he flagged Bumgarner and Beachy in 2011.  Not one mention of this even though in his 2011 article Bumgarner is the lede.  Two pitchers who he points out as being accurate this year — Latos and Price — had MORE innings in 2011 after this so-called effect.  Price had a similar FIP and a much better xFIP.  Latos was the same pitcher minus a bit of luck and a half K on his K-rate.  Another pitcher he flagged in 2011 was Dillon Gee.  Gee had a better xFIP in 160 2/3 IP and a much better K-rate compared to 2010.  His only “hits” were Hughes, Travis Wood and Cecil.  Honestly, everyone picked Wood, Cecil and Hughes to avoid.  For Cecil, I said last year that there’s a good chance you’re gonna wanna drop him by April and, “His K-rate last year was terrible and his xFIP was 4.15 (in 2010).”  So, let’s see, Verducci was right about three guys that everyone warned you about and wrong on 8 guys.  If I could toot my horn as well as Verducci, I may never leave my home.  Please, for the love that is all holy, when I roll out my starter rankings, don’t ask me if I’m worried about the Verducci Effect.

1. Jose Bautista – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Evan Longoria – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. David Wright – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Reynolds.  I call this tier, “We’re too early in a top 20 for question marks.  So why are there so many question marks?”  Honestly, how many times can we go to this Wright well?  The Wright well hasn’t paid whividends in a whery, whery whong time.  Stupid Elmer Fudd voice in my head.  The one non-scientific stat we have to look at is how he’s alternated good power years with bad ones and in 2012 we’re due for a good one.  Yeah, that’s so non-scientific it’s kinda silly.  The better news is The Great Wall of Flushing is coming down and in.  That’s definitely a cheaper way to acquire offense than signing Pujols or Fielder and more legal than accidentally bumping into players with a steroid needle.  How much the new dimensions will actually affect Wright’s power is threefold.  First fold, his “Just Enough” homers could increase.  Second fold, the park’s size may have got in his head and psychologically he may feel more confident about hitting at Metco and end up hitting more homers.  Third fold, there’s no third fold.  Who ever heard of a third fold?  2012 Projections:  85/24/100/.290/15

4. Adrian Beltre – Great lineup, great ballpark, one man who they call “The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room” sneezes and the whole team goes down with the flu for 15 days.  Yeah, I’m not sure why, but no one on the Rangers gets injured by themselves.  They’re like dominos.  Nelson Cruz goes down, then there goes Hamilton, there goes Kinsler, there goes Beltre… It’s a shame to blame one man but The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room does have shifty eyes.  2012 Projections:  75/28/100/.280/3

5. Pablo Sandoval – After wrestling to lose weight and change his name to Sandrectangle, Pablo embraced his girth and hit 23 homers last year.  Still this guy’s big question mark is where does he find pants that fit him?  Oh, and is the power for real?  It looks like it is plus or minus 2 homers from the 23 last year.  Maybe he can pass his cure of blimpotence over to Billy Butler.  Also, similarly to Butler, Sandoval’s got a way with the good average.  After a flukey injury sidelined him last year expect a nice step forward.  2012 Projections:  80/27/95/.320/3

6. Ryan Zimmerman – In my special no-no area, I have a tingling sensation that Zimmerman’s about to have a huge year.  He’s 27, an age when hitters really hit their prime, and he’s proven before that he can hit 30+ homers if he stays healthy.  Mummify him in bubble wrap and send him out to take grounders!  2012 Projections:  80/27/100/.290/5

7. Brett Lawrie – Yeah, I ranked him pretty high.  We’re going to talk about two hypothetical scenarios.  First scenario has you drafting Lawrie before your leaguemates.  All your leaguemates groan, they all wanted him.  Lawrie starts off the season slow and people are glad they didn’t draft him.  (Or he starts off fast.  Either scenario work for this scenario.  We’ll call these Scenarios 1A and 1B.)  Then he turns things around in 1A, everyone wants him.  Or he continues pounding the ball in 1B and everyone still wants him.  You could trade him for a much more valuable piece or you can ride the wave.  Second scenario (2A), you draft Aramis, he gets hurt in May and no one wants him, not even you.  Then Aramis comes back and hits, but still no one wants him because people don’t trust him to stay healthy.  Or (2B) you trade Aramis for less than his worth because you just want to be done with him and then he continues to hit and you get an ulcer.  In 1A and 1B, you have Lawrie or whatever you want (within reason and depending on what your state constitution allows).  In 2A, you have a piece you don’t even want and an ulcer (2B).  I also went over my Brett Lawrie 2012 fantasy.  2C click the link. 2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.290/24

8. Alex Rodriguez – When I was doing my research for A-Rod, I was looking through some of his past years — 52 homers, 18 steals in 2001, 57 homers and 9 steals in 2002 — how again did we not know there was steroids in baseball?  I mean, every BBWAA member is saddened and disheartened and synonym now when they talk about these players besmirching the good name of baseball.  Why weren’t they saddened etc. when it was going on?  Wasn’t it obvious?  I wasn’t bothered because during these years I was smoking weed.  Was every BBWAA member high?  Any the hoo!  A-Rod’s presumably clean of the clear now, but his body is breaking down because of the years on it.  That’s his question mark.  Can he stay healthy?  I have my doubts.  2012 Projections:  70/24/85/.270/5

9. Aramis Ramirez – When Aramis signed with the Brewers, I went over my Aramis fantasy.  I wrote it while karaoking to Air Supply’s Even the Nights are Better.  2012 Projections:  75/25/95/.295

10. Kevin Youkilis – Okay, basically no 3rd baseman can stay healthy.  I think something that gets lost in the Sawx hype is The Greek God of Can’t Walk Half The Time has hit less than 20 homers over more seasons than he’s hit above 25 homers and has never hit more than 29 homers.  Pablo Sandoval, who’s 7 years younger than him, has as many 20+ homer seasons.  Youuuuuuk is a good name for people who like names.  For people who like players to actually hit, he’s not as good.  2012 Projections:  75/19/85/.270/3

11. Michael Young -  Went over Young’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

12. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

13. Emilio Bonifacio – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “You should draft someone else.” Went over Bonifacio’s projections at the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

15. Mike Moustakas – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Stewart.  I call this tier, “The good news, but it comes with degrees of risk.”  This is the good news because 3rd base is about to get infusion of talent.  To use a phrase that sounds like a cliche, brighter days are on the horizon.  Whether it’s Moose, Valencia, Stewart or Gamel, one or more of these guys should provide sneaky value.  Obviously not all of them will, so choose wisely.  I wrote a Moustakas 2012 fantasy post already.  It’s six parts brilliant and one part dumb.  It’s up to you decide which is which.  2012 Projections:   60/20/80/.270/4

16. Danny Valencia – Valencia, California is also known non-ironically as Awesometown.  So I suggest we call him Danny Awesometown.  Makes you more excited about Valencia, doesn’t it?  No?!  Geez, you’re tough.  How about the fact he can hit almost 20 homers and get maybe three steals?  That gets you going, doesn’t it?  All right, how about Danny Might-Be-Solid-Considering-How-Late-You-Can-Draft-Him-town?  2012 Projections:  75/18/85/.265/3

17. Mat Gamel – Here’s what I said earlier this offseason, “No one likes Mat Gamel.   The Brewers wanted to try Gamel in Spring Training last year and he was 30 pounds overweight.  Lay off the mayonnaise, doode.  His Triple-A manager said he’s “hard-headed.”  (No one ever said that of Justin Morneau.)  I get this feeling with a beat provided by will.i.am that Gamel is gonna go the way of Matt Murton.  I hope he doesn’t.  I hope he gets a real shot at 1st base in Spring Training.  I think now that McGehee is gone he will.  Even if all Gamel does is hit homers and make errors.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems similar to how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the left side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.  He had another great year at Triple-A — 28 homers, .310.  He looks like he’s more than ready with the bat.  Definitely will be someone I’ll look at late in drafts for my corner infidel spot.  Could get a cheap 25 homers and a .290 average.”  And that’s me quoting me!  In the end, Gamel is either going to give you 25 homers or 2 homers and you have to drop him because he’s lost the job.  2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.290

18. Ian Stewart – Incredibly, I’m willing to give Mini Mini Donkey one more chance, especially if he’s being drafted late enough.  For a late round flyer what does Stewart have over, say, Pedro Alvarez?  He’s had a full season where he hit 25 homers.  That’s one.  Why him over, say, Freese?  Same reason.  Over Prado?  Same reason.  Stewart also his sneaky 7 to 10 steal speed like his mentor, Mini Donkey. 2012 Projections:  60/24/75/.245/7

19. David Freese – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Edwin Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “My New Year’s Resolution was to not see the movie New Year’s Eve and to draft a 3rd baseman before this tier.”  2011 World Series MVP David Freese has little power, no speed and the hype of changing his name to 2011 World Series MVP David Freese.  Oh, and he can’t stay healthy.  Sounds like he should be the mayor of Awesometown.  2012 Projections:  55/15/65/.290

20. Martin Prado -  The other day Prado showed up at my window singing The Promise by When In Rome.  He was trying to curry favor with me because he knows that his lack of power and speed makes me not want to draft him ever.  When he was done singing, I still didn’t want to draft him but I did invite him in for some risotto.  I have a big heart!  2012 Projections:  80/12/70/.300/5

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these five stand out:

Edwin Encarnacion – He’s either going to stay healthy and hit .250 with 25 homers or get hurt and have 15 homers and .250.  In most leagues, you’re not going to hold onto him if you draft him so why bother?  Go for upside with someone else.  2012 Projections:  60/20/70/.255/3

Scott Sizemore – You really shouldn’t have Sizemore on your team outside of AL-Only leagues, and even there he leaves a lot to be desired.  Here’s the deal — dealio, if you’re trying to sound hip but aren’t really — 3rd base is not a deep position and if you’re this deep you don’t have many options.  Sizemore had his best season last year with a 11/5 season and that looked like it was ceiling, and with a ceiling like that who needs floors? (<–I think that makes sense.  Think about it.)  2012 Projections:  65/10/70/.260/7

Lonnie Chisenhall – I already went over my Lonnie Chisenhall fantasy.  I counted six typos.  2012 Projections:  65/20/80/.250/3

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee is a Baha Man.  He was a guy who looked destined to be a utility man, had a huge season and people started inserting Casey McGehee into the poem, Casey at the Bat.  Turned out he was a utility man who lucked into a big season and those same people wished they didn’t use pen when inserting his name into the poem, so they changed McGehee to MacDonald and told everyone they did a mash-up of Casey at the Bat and Old MacDonald.  2012 Projections:  60/16/70/.260

Pedro Alvarez -  Yes, Casey McGehee might steal his playing time.  What I think actually happens is Alvarez or McGehee goes to first base and the other plays — I don’t know — third base.  Last year all went wrong for PeAl (hmm, that nickname doesn’t really work).  The first year he had a 30.8% K-rate, but he was buoyed by a .341 BABIP.  When his BABIP came back to earth, his K-rate left a crater the size of the Grand Canyon in his average.  He needs to cut back on his Ks or he’s going to be back in the minors, carrying his own bags and staying in dumps with no running water.  Well, that sorta sounds like nice hotels in Pittsburgh, but you catch my drift.  2012 Projections:  60/18/75/.240

In 2011, Teixeira had the 18th best average at his position and the sixth most runs. He did have the most HRs and fourth most RBIs, but, really, that just makes him Ryan Howard in a down year.  He was a top 15 draft pick last year and this year he’s going in the top 30. I have Teixeira as the 37th best hitter and would rather have players like Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and, yes, Paul Konerko.

Teixeira backers will point to his career low .239 BABIP as the main reason he set a new low in batting average in 2011. However, this is the second consecutive season Tex set a career low in BABIP and AVG.  What’s more, 2011 saw Teixeira continue to try and hit more HRs. Since joining the Yankees, his FB% has risen considerably. While his line drive percentage hasn’t moved a ton, he is hitting less and less of them.

In addition, Teixeira’s plate discipline continues an alarming trend. He swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 27.8% of the time in 2011 (the most of his career). His rates for the past several years: 26.5%, 21.8%, 20.1%, 20.2%. This is a two year trend of poor ball/strike recognition. Not surprisingly, pitchers are on to Teixeira’s kryptonite:  last season only 39.6% of the pitches he saw were inside the strike zone. That percentage was 42.2% last year, 46.1% the year before and 46.8% the year before that. It has been on a downward trend since 2004.  If Teixeira stops trying to jack every pitch out of the park and becomes a bit more selective, he could, absolutely, return to glory.

That said, I see Teixeira as a .265 hitter, with downside. He’ll add 35+ HRs, 90+ runs and 100+ RBIs, but that average will hurt the value of those. He is certainly valuable and a top 40 player or so. If you draft him in the top rounds, expecting a top flight player, you’ll be disappointed.  Grey also shares my sentiments in his top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.