Doom & Gloom or Puppies & Daisies?

Last week CNNMoney.com reported that area housing would drop another 26 percent. It got a lot of attention and started some chatter. The biggest question people have when they see reports are if they’re true or not. Seriously, is it possible that housing values can drop further and by a figure as large as twenty six percent?

The confusion with a large portion of real estate market reports is that the source of the data that’s used often isn’t divulged. On top of that, there will be eye catching headlines like one that came through a Google alert last week: “Real estate up eighty percent.” Could that headline be more vague? What was up eighty percent, the price of the real estate or the number of units sold?

The fact of the matter is that anyone can make a market report and even a projection of what will happen to the real estate market in the next year. There is no death penalty for being wrong and except for the few “copy and paster” lurkers on newspaper websites most readers don’t remember how many times the fortune tellers are wrong or right.

The truth about the local market is in the local numbers; the current inventory and the rate of sales. Will real estate go down twenty six percent in Naples or even Southwest Florida? You can bet that somewhere, someone’s will. Will all real estate go down 26%? Probably not.

What’s been going on locally for the last several months is a sell off of entry level priced homes. According to Sunshine MLS, the month of October 2009 showed that nearly 80 percent of the real estate that sold in Southwest Florida, and even that broad expanse of Naples, was priced $400,000 and under.

Essentially, those of you selling real estate priced between $400,000 and $23,000,000 have the remaining 20 percent of the market share to wrestle over. Not everyone in that price range is going to take a beating but it’s a good bet that someone’s going to need some smelling salts when that match is over.

The value decrease or increase in real estate is about supply and demand. We currently still have an ample supply and in some price points there is an excessive supply. Real estate priced $600,000-$1M has been a slower moving price point and currently has over 30 months of inventory. That’s the broad brush. In different neighborhoods the inventory and rate of sale will be different.

If you have real estate for sale you need to find out what sort of inventory levels and sales rates you’re dealing with in order to determine if you’re priced effectively, in the price point with a greater rate of sales or if you’re wrestling for a piece of that 20 percent priced over $400,000.

You won’t get individual neighborhood or price point specific information from CNNmoney.com. You have to get it locally. Find out if your real estate is in a price point that’s selling and get a neighborhood and price specific absorption rate from your real estate agent. Then figure out your own reality and whether you may or may not be in the group that could be going down 26 percent.

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Real Life in Bonita Springs is a project by Chris Griffith dedicated to writing useful blog posts for consumers about the Bonita Springs, Florida area.  Find out what it is really like to live in Bonita Springs, Florida by reading about our fair city. You’ll get the latest in local real estate information, Bonita Springs real estate market reports and a little bit of humor.  If you have topic ideas, feel free to request a story about the idea, after all, this site is just for you.

You can subscribe to a weekly email newsletter by visiting www.LifeInBonitaSprings.com and entering your email in the subscription area on the left pane of the web page or by adding us to your reader by subscribing to this blog. Oh, and if you’re reading this content anywhere else but www.LifeInBonitaSprings.com or Naples Daily News it is probably stolen.

First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit Expires Soon

Attention potential First-Time Home Buyers!!!  You have less than four weeks to close on your new home to get the $8,000 tax credit.  Do not rely on an extension with possible additional benefits.  Take what you know you can get now.  Not what you could or could not get in less than 30 days.

Remember, this month also has Thanksgiving at the end of the month.  So figure from Wednesday, November 25 through to Monday, November 30, there will be no closings.  Lenders will be closed on Thanksgiving and a lot of title companies will close early on Wednesday and not open again till Monday to Tuesday.  The title companies can only close so many loans in one day.

With that being said, Knightlines Mortgage Services, LLC has the ability to close a new home loan purchase in under two weeks.  And our title company that we recommend will work past normal business hours to get your loan closed before the deadline.

Call us today at 352.308.7219 to get your loan package moving forward and to be one step closer to putting an extra $8,000 in your pocket.

Jason Price

Owner/Principal Broker

(352) 308-7219 Phone

For some time now, Knightlines Mortgage Services has been offering the people of Florida a convenient way to finance and re-finance their residential property.

But that isn’t the entire story – we are also doing commercial lending in all 50 states.  AND – now we can offer commercial financing OUTSIDE of the country as well.  Caribbean, South America, etc – just call for the details.

Nearly Duplicate Real Estate Sales Figures

The real estate sales figures for the month of October 2009 are nearly the spitting image of September 2009 real estate sales.   Nearly eighty percent of the real estate that sold in Sunshine MLS last month was priced $400,000 and under.   That’s quite a remarkable figure for Southwest Florida.

While sales prices have dipped down, the sell off of real estate inventory has really picked up.  There will be several real estate market reports to follow, including percentage of sales that are short sales, foreclosure or equity owned properties and the sales real estate history for the six years so you can see where real estate was and where it has gone.

If you’re interested in last months nearly identical chart, read also: 

What Price Point of Real Estate is Selling? September 2009

2009-2010 Flea Market Farmer Market is Open

The seasonal farmer’s market has opened at The Promenade Shoppes in Bonita Springs, Florida for the winter season.  The Promenade is located at the northwest corner US 41 – Tamiami Trail and Bonita Bay Boulevard, directly across the street from Highland Woods Golf & Country Club, Target and Publix.

The farmer’s market offers fresh cut flowers, folk art, collectibles, fresh local produce, fresh off the boat seafood, local artists, bake goods and crafts.  The farmers market is open Saturday mornings 8:00 a.m. to 12 noon through the winter.

Map to The Farmer’s Market 2009-2010:

Don’t Forget to Turn Clocks Back Tonight

Foreclosure by Choice

When did the mentality about walking away from the obligation of a home change? Maybe the change started when the possibility of owning a home was made so easy that anyone with a pulse and a blue ink pen could qualify for a loan.

Home ownership was no longer a challenge for most consumers. When the loan programs were created to get nearly anyone into a home the banks unknowingly taught consumers that home ownership was no longer a big deal. It was no longer an earned right or an accomplishment to be revered.

Those who purchased just because they could sit upright and sign the dotted line didn’t mentally or morally commit to a home, let alone the debt that came with it. Their debt was nearly invisible, anyway. It was just paper until housing values started falling or their interest rate reset.

The so-called second wave of foreclosures is anticipated and feared like aftershocks of an earthquake. We still have a hefty pile of loans with resetting mortgage rates lying around and it’s not exactly a secret. Neither is the fact that Florida is one of the top three states with woeful tales in the housing crisis.

There’s a fair amount of home owners who weigh their options and essentially make a business decision to cut and run. According to credit bureaus there were over 585,000 strategic defaults in the United States last year. Not surprisingly, Florida had more than its fair share. Strategic default, in case you didn’t know, is just a sanitized way to say that a borrower is walking away from their home loan even when they can still afford it.

It may surprise you to know, especially in this economic downturn starring double digit unemployment numbers, that the folks who do a strategic default or a “walk away” generally have good credit and the means to continue repaying their debt. The borrower just makes a choice to stop paying and force the bank to foreclose in an effort to shake off the mortgage on a home that is upside down in equity.

Some people see it as a way to game the system. Maybe it is, but it wasn’t the first game in this financial fiasco. The consumers are the end users in a gamed system that didn’t work.

Homeowners see the banks getting bailed out and they’re still holding a mortgage on a home that worth considerably less than they owe on their mortgage. Throw in a soon to be resetting interest rate, increased payments and little relief in sight and it makes it easy to turn on the villainous bank and leave them holding the bag.

Sure, there’s credit damage for choosing walking away from a home. Maybe in the eyes of the walk away homeowner the credit damage isn’t as bad as the hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt on a home they may have not been so committed to in the first place.

Like any other mass activity, maybe there is a sense of safety in numbers. Since everyone who was anyone was able to get on board the home loan express they’ll find it easier to get off and just walk away simply because it seems like everyone else is doing it, too.

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Real Life in Bonita Springs is a project by Chris Griffith dedicated to writing useful blog posts for consumers about the Bonita Springs, Florida area.  Find out what it is really like to live in Bonita Springs, Florida by reading about our fair city. You’ll get the latest in local real estate information, Bonita Springs real estate market reports and a little bit of humor.  If you have topic ideas, feel free to request a story about the idea, after all, this site is just for you.

You can subscribe to a weekly email newsletter by visiting www.LifeInBonitaSprings.com and entering your email in the subscription area on the left pane of the web page or by adding us to your reader by subscribing to this blog. Oh, and if you’re reading this content anywhere else but www.LifeInBonitaSprings.com or Naples Daily News it is probably stolen.

Tourist Season in Southwest Florida

The northerner’s know it’s fall when the leaves change and begin falling to the ground.  People in Southwest Florida know it’s fall when we see car haulers everywhere.

In front of every gated community, in every shopping plaza there are car haulers parked, offloading the cars of our northern residents who are returning to Bonita Springs for refuge from the harsh northern winters.

The car haulers were early this year.  My theory is that people were up north and just sick and tired of being sick and tired where they were and opted for sunny skies and a more mild climate.

Besides, snowbirds in Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Columbus just don’t get sunsets like this so maybe this is why they came back early.

The Haunted Halloween Mortgage Rates Report

The 4% rates have come back to haunt us this week. Or is that taunt us?

For almost one week, the rates were in the 5% range. However, with a last minute inter-day rate change, an eerie ghost appeared on my rate sheet. I quickly snapped this photo of it before it could vanish in thin air.

When it disappeared, I was left staring in utter shock at what it left behind:

30 Year Fixed:

Interest Rate – 4.875%

APR – 4.966%

Payment – $793.81

15 Year Fixed:

Interest Rate – 4.375%

APR – 4.530%

Payment – $1,137.93

30 Year Jumbo:

Interest Rate – 5.125%

APR – 5.233%

Payment – $2,722.43

15 Year Jumbo:

Interest Rate – 4.625%

APR – 4.808%

Payment – $3,856.99

*The rates published on this page are applicable only to requests received from this site or by calling 352-308-7219. Mortgage rates published on this page are the current rates for a single-family, primary residence based on a 30-day lock period and are subject to change without notice. In order to receive a guaranteed rate, you must have applied for an application through Knightlines Mortgage Services, LLC and received a verbal confirmation from a mortgage broker that your desired rate is locked. Your guaranteed mortgage rate will depend on factors such as current market conditions, loan product, occupancy, property type and your credit profile.

Loan Product Information

• Conforming rates are for loan amounts not exceeding $417,000 ($625,500 in AK and HI)

• Jumbo rates are for loan amounts exceeding $417,000 ($625,500 in AK and HI)

• Additional loan products, rates and lock periods are available.

Conforming Fixed APR calculation assumes a $150,000 loan amount with a 20% down payment, estimated borrower paid finance charges of .75% of the loan amount plus discount and origination if applicable. If the down payment is less than 20%, mortgage insurance may be needed on the loan. This could increase the monthly payment and the APR.

Jumbo Fixed APR calculation assumes a $500,000 loan amount with a 20% down payment, estimated borrower paid finance charges of .75% of the loan amount plus discount and origination if applicable. If the down payment is less than 20%, mortgage insurance may be needed on the loan. This could increase the monthly payment and the APR.

Jason Price

Owner/Principal Broker

(352) 308-7219 Phone

For some time now, Knightlines Mortgage Services has been offering the people of Florida a convenient way to finance and re-finance their residential property.

But that isn’t the entire story – we are also doing commercial lending in all 50 states.  AND – now we can offer commercial financing OUTSIDE of the country as well.  Caribbean, South America, etc – just call for the details.

Skip and Tonto

The owners of these horses contacted me a while back. I had taken pictures of her boys in the Fourth of July parade and she requested a copy.  Bonita Springs has three Walgreens, maybe more.  It was a snap to upload them to the Walgreens nearest her home and she picked them up the same day.

I had been looking for horses to photograph so when I spoke to the owner of the horses I asked where they were and if I could take some pictures of them.  They’re usually in the barn but one day when I drove down Bonita Grande Road in Bonita Springs, Florida they were out grazing at the Flesher Farm.  The Flesher Farm was once the Christmas light place.  Back in the day the entire ranch was decorated like crazy and dripping in twinkle lights.  It’s been a few years since the lights were up.

After I parked the car I decided to chance interacting with someone else’s horses without professional supervision.  If you’re expecting glorious pictures of stately beasts with muscles and veins glimmering in the Florida sunshine, you’re definitely not getting it.  While Tonto, the black and white horse kept nibbling, the Skip, black one decided to come check me out.  It seemed innocent enough …

This picture is a little blurry for a reason.  This would be where the deep concern set in and the humongous horse started pushing me across an isolated, vacant field with it’s head. I said, the horse was pushing me across the field with it’s head, it’s face.  This went on for several yards by the way.

My hand was flat on it’s forehead pushing and I thought: I’m probably in trouble here.  As if I have a chance at even influencing 1,000 lbs of horse.  I kind of stepped to the side and prayed it wasn’t going to prove the “I’m bigger than you, point and come back for more shovin’.”  He coasted by instead and then decided to leave me alone.

Crimany, I had horses most of my younger life and I totally wussed out and got bullied by a horse.  I kept taking pictures though!

There weren’t but a few other shots I popped off since I was still thinking about that whole being trampled situation.  I was also busier counting my lucky stars that the horse was only being a smart aleck.

While I was actually wearing sensible shoes this time, the entire shoving event would influence why I decided to keep my distance with the goats.  They’re little but there were enough of them to gang up on me if they “organized” and I wasn’t taking chances.

Here are a few images after the shoving match was over:

The End