2009: 45-38
2008: 44-39
2007: 42-41

Player of the Series: Jayson Werth (6 for 15, 4 HR, 9 RBI)
Goat of the Series:  Jamie Moyer (5 IP, 6 ER)

OK, instead of my Good News / Bad News stuff, I’m going to look at some of the interesting paces that Phillies players have set for themselves the first half of the year…

166 – Strikeouts by Joe Blanton, his previous career high is 140

35 – HR’s allowed by Blanton, his previous career high is 23

1.20 – J.A. Happ’s WHIP. Would be the 2nd lowest for a Phillies rookie w/ 150+ IP. The lowest is HOFer Pete Alexander in 1911.

41 – HR’s by Ryan Howard, would be the lowest full-season total of his career

124 – RBI’s by Ryan Howard, would be the lowest full-season total of his career

.994 – Howard’s fielding %, the highest of his career

39 – Doubles by Howard, his previous career high is 26

50 – HR’s by Raul Ibanez, 17 more than his previous career high

22 – Games in which Brad Lidge has a loss or a blown save, or Ryan Madson has a loss

1.82 – Brad Lidge’s WHIP. The highest of any Phillies reliever with 60+ IP since 1945.

41 – Home runs allowed by Jamie Moyer, the 9th highest total in the history of baseball, but only 3rd highest by a Phillies (Robin Roberts, 46 in 1956 and Eric Milton, 43 in 2004).

2.0 – HR/9 by Moyer, 4th highest in baseball history and tops in Phillies history

16 – Wins by Jamie Moyer, 6 more than any other starter.

99, 38, 68, 26 – Runs, Doubles, RBIs and stolen bases by Jimmy Rollins. Incredible considering how bad he’s played. Most any team would take that from a gold glove SS.

40, 120, .300, 1.000 – HR, RBI, BA and OPS for Chase Utley. Only one 2B has ever done that in a season, Rogers Hornsby in 1922.

120, 40, 80, 30, .300 – Runs, doubles, RBI, SB and BA  for Shane Victorino. Would be the 1st Phillie ever to put up those numbers, and only the 14th in MLB history.

205 – Hits for Shane Victorino. Would be only the 13th Phillie w/ 200+ hits in a season.

40, 107 – HR and RBI that Jayson Werth is on pace for, 16 and 40 higher than his career highs.

4 – Number of Phillies on pace for 40+ HR and 100+ RBI. Only Cy Williams, Mike Schmidt, Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, Chuck Klein and Dick Allen have done that in a single-season over the history of the Phillies.

6 – Number of Phillies in the top-17 in the NL in runs scored

Alright, that’s all I have for now – Anything else I come up with I’ll throw in my mid-season review, which I will be writing over the all-star break.

Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates at Phillies

Dannie and I were actually in Pittsburgh a couple weekends ago checking out PNC Park, so we got a good look at this Pirates team. They are full of young, decent players, but no one even approaching star level. Their starting pitching is more of a strength, but they still don’t have anyone  that will blow you away. Their leading run producer in Adam LaRoche, who ranks 45th in the NL with 39 RBI, 5 more than Jimmy Rollins. They aren’t good, and probably won’t be good any time soon because management can’t draft, and doesn’t know what they are doing.

Friday: Blanton vs. Zach Duke (8-7, 3.28 ERA)
Saturday: Hamels vs. Ross Ohlendorf (7-7, 4.63 ERA)
Sunday: Happ vs. Virgil Vasquez (1-2, 4.50 ERA)

Three Questions for the Series…

1. How will Ibanez look coming back from injury?
2. Will we be talking more about the series, or the rampant Pedro Martinez / Roy Halladay rumors?
3. Does anyone actually like the Pirates uniforms?

Prediction

I think that the final 2 games of this series heavily favor the Phillies, especially if Ibanez comes back strong. Blanton has been pitching great recently and I think the Phillies can ride their momentum into the break at 10-games over .500 with a sweep of the Pirates.

Related posts:

1. 2008 MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates
2. The ReclinerGM’s 2009 MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Phils rock Cards, crumble vs. Mets

• Kyle Drabek will absolutely need to be involved in the deal
• Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor will absolutely need to be involved in the deal
• 2 more above average prospects, and 1 average prospect, will likely need to be involved in the deal

Bottom line? It’s going to take a lot more than we have been discussing here. The Phillies don’t have a Matt Wieters, David Price, Evan Longoria “can’t miss” type prospects to sweeten the deal, so it’s going to have to be done with quantity. You also have to remember that we look at our prospects through rose colored glasses sometimes and other teams GM’s don’t, and they are what matter. My original hope of Carrasco, Brown and Marson is not going to be enough.

So here is the question… do you, if you were Ruben Amaro Jr., make the following trade:

Roy Halladay for Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Johan Flande

Vote it up – I’m really curious to see what people do here…

note: Let’s operate under the assumption that the Phillies will not re-sign Halladay after the 2010 season because there is a less than 50% chance of that happening.

Related posts:

1. Phillies Rumors: Myers out…Halladay, Oswalt, Peavy in?
2. Opinion: Trade Werth, not Michael Taylor
3. Minor Update: Phillies Top 10 Prospects for 2009

Stats and Ranks

Some Interesting Stats and Facts

• One of 3 Phillies (Carlton, Bedrosian) to win the Cy Young Award.
• Gave up 2 ER or less in 27 of his 36 starts, and 1 ER or less in 20 of 36.
• Top-5 in the NL in ERA (2nd), Wins (1st), W/L% (1st), WHIP (5th), BB/9 (3rd), Starts (3rd), HR/9 (1st) and ERA+ (2nd).
• Since 1920, only Carlton (’72, ‘80), Bunning (’67) and John Denny (’83) pitched over 240 innings with an ERA under 2.40.
• 2nd highest winning percentage (.760) of any pitcher in Phillies history with 25+ decisions.
• Allowed only 9 HR in those 242.2 IP (or 1 every 4 starts). Led the NL in HR/9 (0.33) and is one of only 3 Phillies pitchers since 1950 to have a HR/9 rate that low with 200+ IP.
• Only Phillies pitcher since 1950 with less than 0.33 HR/9 and 2.0 BB/9 rates.
• This season, his first full one with the Phillies, followed a 6-13, 4.87 ERA season with the Indians and Phillies.

Why He’s Here

When watching baseball, two of the most frustrating things for fans to see is a pitcher giving up a walk, or grooving a fastball for a home run. In that case, John Denny might have had the least frustrating season in Phillies history. Denny wasn’t a fireballer who was going to blow anyone away. In fact, his K/9 rate (5.2) ranks him 96th all-time for Phillies pitchers with 180+ innings, right behind Pat Combs and Omar Daal. Instead, he relied on control and keeping the ball in the park. Only a handful of pitchers ever did both so well, for so many innings.

From 1946-2008, only 7 pitchers had a season in which they pitched over 242 IP, with a HR/9 rate below 0.34/9 and a BB/9 below 2.0/9. You might recognize some of the names: Bob Gibson (1968), Gaylord Perry (1968), Don Sutton (1971), Ron Reed (1975), Vida Blue (1976), John Denny (1983) and Kevin Brown (1998). Denny unbelievably reliable, giving up more than 4 runs only 3 times all season, and pitching at least 6 innings in 26 of 36 starts.

Like many of the top season entries, Denny’s season helped the Phillies to the playoffs, and the World Series. In the playoffs, he equaled his regular season ERA of 2.37 over 3 starts, but only won 1 game.

Previous ‘Top-20 Seasons’ Entries

#17 – Tug McGraw, 1980
#18 - Greg Luzinksi, 1977
#19 - Gavvy Cravath, 1913
#20 - Lenny Dykstra, 1993

Five pitchers that just missed (and criteria for rankings)

Five hitters that just missed

Related posts:

1. The Phillies Top 20 Individual Seasons , # 17 : Tug McGraw, 1980
2. The Phillies Top 20 Individual Seasons, #20: Lenny Dykstra, 1993
3. The Phillies Top 20 Individual Seasons, #19: Gavvy Cravath, 1913

Since we are talking a lot about Roy Halladay trade scenarios, I thought it would be interesting to see which prospects people most want to hold on to. Below (and on the side bar) is a poll with just that question. I think that most of us would trade pretty much anyone for Halladay, but I’m sure there are certain players we would want to keep over others. Feel free to explain your answer in comments.

Related posts:

1. Would you make this trade for Roy Halladay?
2. Phils Trade Once Top-Prospect Golson
3. Phillies Rumors: Myers out…Halladay, Oswalt, Peavy in?

2009: 42-37
2008: 43-36
2007: 41-38

Player of the Series: Brad Lidge (2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 Saves) and Jimmy Rollins (5 for 11, 1 HR, 5 RBI, .533 OBP)
Goat of the Series: n/a

The Good News

• So far, JA Happ looks like he might be a long-term solution for the rotation. Since being put in the rotation, he is 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA over 8 starts. By comparison, Hamels had a 5.45 ERA over his first 8 starts (though he was 4 years younger). He has shown poise on the mound and hasn’t gotten flustered when put in big spots. He has to lower his walks (almost 3 per start) and raise his K’s (33 in 51.1 IP), but his numbers, attitude, and stuff point to him being a solid starter for us for at least a couple years.
• Joe Blanton has seriously stepped it up with Brett Myers out of the rotation. He’s sporting a 2.61 ERA in his last 8 starts. His ERA has dropped from 7.11 to 4.69 during that span. Likewise, Moyer has a perfectly acceptable 4.14 ERA in his last 9 starts. With our 5th starter spot up in the air and Hamels struggling, we need these 2 veterans to keep keeping us in games.
• The bullpen, after saving us last year, has been our achilles heel this year. However, closer Brad Lidge put together two of his best outings of the year against the Mets. He didn’t allow a baserunner and struck out 5 batters, for his 2 saves. Small sample size, but this team needs him to turn it around.
• I’m not even close to ready to anoint Rollins as being back. But he did look like the Rollins of old against the Mets, and sometimes just one good series can get a player going.
• Maybe the brass did see some change in Rodrigo Lopez over his last couple minor league starts. I wanted Carrasco or Carpenter to get a chance, but Lopez was just what we needed. He pitched into the 7th and only allowed 7 baserunners. His fastball got as high as 90-91, but mostly sat in the 88 range, and he used his slider well to get outs. While it was a great start, my personal opinion is that Lopez, like Moyer, really need to be hitting his spots to pitch well, so he could be a little unpredictable and I don’t think he is the final solution for our #5 spot.
• Congrats to Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. All deserving all-stars. Make sure you vote for Shane at least 25 times for the final spot.

The Bad News

• Before the season I said that the 2 most vital pieces to this team were Brad Lidge and Cole Hamels. Both have been fairly large disappointments this year, and we are extremely lucky to be where we are given their performances. Lidge, as mentioned above, is showing signs of turning it around, but Hamels seems to be moving in the other direction. The Phillies needed him to come up big his last two starts, and he didn’t even come close. In those 2 starts he gave up 17 hits in 8.2 IP with a 11.42 ERA. Is this a sign of last year’s workload wearing on his arm? Is it his focus? Is it just a string of location problems? I’m honestly not sure. But I do know that he needs to be a stopper for this team to do well. Tonight’s start is important for him.
• The case of Ryan Madson is an example of how baseball can be so maddening to the fans sometimes. From May 19th – June 14th, Madson made 16 appearances, gave up 0 runs, only 8 hits and struck out 17 in 15.1 IP. He was flat out unhittable and looked like he might even make the all-star team. Then, in his next 7 appearances, without losing a single mph off his fastball, he sports a 10.80 ERA, a 2.85 WHIP and is credited with 3 losses and 2 blown saves. On a whole (3.27 ERA) it looks like a normal reliever, but seeing the domination and the mighty struggles back-to-back just boggles the mind. That shouldn’t happen. Someone can’t be that good one day and then that bad the very next day. But whether it’s luck, the law of averages, or something else, if its not clearly an arm problem, us fans are just left to wonder.
• Reports are the Phillies are going to scout Pedro Martinez. Let’s hope they don’t like what they see.

Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds at Phillies

The Reds roll into town at exactly .500 and 3 games back in the NL Central. They have been getting by on their pitching (6th in the NL in ERA) and not their hitting (14th in the NL in runs). Last time we played them, Joey Votto was out of the line-up, but he’s back now. The line-up is going to have to get their starters and force the Reds offense to score some runs.

Probable Pitchers

Monday: Hamels vs. Johnny Cueto (8-4, 2.69 ERA)
Tuesday: Happ vs. Aaron Harang (5-8, 3.86 ERA)
Wednesday: Lopez vs. Homer Bailey (1-0, 5.94 ERA)
Thursday: Moyer vs. Micah Owings (6-8, 4.48 ERA)

3 Questions for the Series

1. Can Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge build off the momentum they gained in the Mets’ series?
2. Can Cole Hamels rebound from 2 horrible starts?
3. Can the Phillies, for the first time all season, win back-to-back home series?

Prediction

I’m not exactly about to declare the Phillies “back” after they beat down a Mets team that has a bunch of bench players in their line-up right now. I think the last 2 games of this series are very winnable, so it will be important for the Phils to take at least 1 of 2 in the first 2. I want to pick them to win the series, but I haven’t seen enough to say that the Mets series was a real turnaround. I’ll predict a split of the 4-game set.

Something to Consider

I will occasionally come up with random baseball ideas and share them here just for the heck of it. Since it’s all-star time, I feel the need to re-state my desire to see a “fastest player” and “best arm” contest along with the HR derby. The fastest player would be a timed first-to-home sprint to see who has the best time. The best arm contest would have players in RF catching a fly ball from a hitting machine and throwing at a target by home plate. Speed and accuracy would be awarded points. I bet Victorino and Ichiro could give anyone a run for the money in both.

Anyway - another stupid idea I had today was to change baseball series from 3 games to 5. There is a big luck factor with 3-game series because you can miss a team’s best pitcher(s) while another team gets it. There have been seasons when it seemed like the Phillies always got the worst of this and years when they’ve had better luck. To eliminate this, you could have 5-game series where you face every starter on the other team, thus eliminating this luck factor. There are several reasons I can think of not to do this, but I’ll leave it up to you to show I’m wrong.

Related posts:

1. Phils/Mets Turning Into REAL Rivalry
2. Phils rock Cards, crumble vs. Mets
3. Phils demoralize Mets, Welcome Red Sox to Philly

• Jrue Holiday
• Dionte Christmas
• Marreese Speights
• Blake Ahearn
• Gary Forbes
• Rob Kurz
• Marcus Slaughter

Here is the Sixers’ schedule, opponent and potential point guard match-up for Jrue Holiday:

• 7/6 – 3pm vs. Indiana (Aaron Jackson/A.J. Price)
• 7/7 – 5pm vs. Utah (Holiday vs. Maynor )
• 7/8 – 7pm vs. Orlando (Holiday vs. Levance Fields/Jermey Pargo/Russell Robinson)
• 7/9 – 3pm vs. Oklahoma City (Holiday vs. Russell Westbrook/Shaun Livingston)
• 7/10 – 1pm vs. Boston (Lester Hudson/Gabe Pruitt/Chris Lofton/Darius Washington)

You can watch the games only here.

What do you hope to see from Holiday, Christmas and Speights this summer that will carry over into the season?  Me…

Marreese Speights - Defense, rebounding and low block offense – in that order.  We know Speights is decent offensively already. He has a sweet shot and has shown signs of a legit NBA post game.   What we don’t know is whether or not he knows how, is capable of or willing to play defense at a high level.  With his size and athleticism, he should be a much better defender.  I especially want to see him defending other back-to-the-basket players and in pick-and-roll situations.  I really feel like he could be good defending the pick-and-roll since he isn’t this big, slow, laboring front court player.

Last year Speights was a good offensive rebounder but an inconsistent rebounder overall.  He needs to prove he has the motor and tenacity to get after on the boards.

Offensively I just want to see him show two things:

1. A go-to post move
2. Effective counter move when his first option is taken away

That’s it.  Two moves and the ability to finish them.  I am not even that concerned with his ability to transition from go-to into his counter just yet.  Just that he has them both in his repertoire.  His reactive ability and execution will come with more game reps.

Jrue Holiday - Leadership from the point guard position, vision and passing/play-making ability, signs of a jumpshot.  This is the point guard of the future; the first thing I want to see is how he runs the point, dictates the action, directs his teammates and his court demeanor.  I want to see a leader out there, not just a kid playing summer ball.

I’ve heard about Holiday’s vision and passing ability.  We’ll need to see it. He should be running the point now, no more excuse of being off the ball.  Finally he needs to show signs of having a jumper.  He doesn’t have to shoot the lights out or anything, but his jumper needs to be good enough where teams respect him enough to go over the top on pick-and-rolls.  I hate watching teams just go under screens over and over again against Andre Miller and not creating that switch and mismatch.

Too much to ask?  Maybe, but that’s what the expectations are when you are viewed as the point guard of the future for a franchise.

Dionte Christmas – NBA three point consistency, perimeter defense and, to a lesser degree right now, moving without the ball to get open for shots. When you are coined a shooter coming out of college the first thing you must prove is that it translates to the next level.  If Christmas can show he is a knock-down shooter already at that range, he has a very good chance of making this squad.  The second thing he must do is prove he can defend at this level.  He isn’t known as the quickest, most athletic player but neither was Aaron McKie.  I really am hoping McKie takes him under his wing and helps to develop Christmas’ game in his own mold (smart, solid, savvy pro on the wing with a jumper who defends).  We need a player like that on this team.

His game will rise to another level if he becomes more than just a stand still perimeter shooter and can actually thrive in an offense where plays are run for him where he is moving to get open off screens and is capable of getting his shot off quickly with accuracy.

The other guys I don’t know enough about to judge so I’ll be eager to watch these guys and see who makes the final roster come training camp.

Leave comments below on your thoughts on what you’re looking for and how guys are doing this summer and any insights you have.

Related posts:

1. Recliner GM Fantasy Hoops League
2. 2009 Sixers Draft
3. Who Will the Sixers’ Sharpshooter Be?

A couple rules, here they are:

• No assumptions. Once a players’ contract is up they are taken off the chart. If a player has a club or player option for a season, they stay on the chart, because they are a possibility. An asterisk signifies a club option, two signify a player option, three signify a mutual option.
• No players lower than single-A will be considered.
• Only players I see as possible starter-caliber players will be on the chart. If there is no one signed, and no viable minor league option, the space will simply be left blank.
• I only put players in a year where they are a potential option. For instance, one of our top prospects, Jason Knapp, doesn’t show up until 2012 because that is the absolute earliest he could make the majors.
• For now, I am excluding relief pitchers because usually, MLB relief pitchers are starters in the minors and I don’t want to get into predicting who will be a starter and reliever.
• Players will only be included at multiple positions if the team has tried them there, or at least talked about it. Right now, the only player showing at multiple positions is Jason Donald (SS/3B).

I think that covers it, but let me know if there are any questions. As players are traded, minor leaguers emerge, and contracts are signed, I will keep this updated and post when there are changes.

Not eligible but on radar

• Trevor May, RHP, 19
• Jonathan Pettibone, RHP, 18
• Jarred Cosart, RHP, 19
• Colby Shreve, RHP, 21
• Anthony Hewitt, 3B/OF, 19
• Sebastian Valle, C, 18
• Domingo Santana, OF, 16

Need to show improvement to make list

• Drew Naylor, RHP, 23
• Mike Stutes, RHP, 22
• Edgar Garcia, RHP, 21
• Travis Mattair, 3B, 20
• Drew Carpenter, RHP, 24
• Mike Cisco, RHP, 22

Quick Observations

• We’ve got a ton of promising young arms, but no sure things. Drabek has the best stuff, but has only 1/2 season of health under his belt. Carrasco has stalled in AAA. Of the 7 young pitchers (Happ and Bastardo included) we need at least 2 of them of be long-term quality starters.
• We are deep at catcher and outfield long-term, but weak on the infield and will likely need to look outside the organization for a 3B and 1B (if we don’t re-sign Howard).
• I think that it is very important for the Phillies to spend a lot of money on the draft and the international market like they did last year. When you look at this, you can see that we can spare an outfield prospect or a pitcher without seriously hurting ourselves long-term. The more areas we can say that, the easier it will be to improve our team.

Related posts:

1. Eagles Post-Draft Depth Chart
2. Phillies Opening Day Rosters: 2004-2009
3. The ReclinerGM’s 2009 MLB Preview: Phillies Starting Rotation

1. What will happen with Andre Miller?
2. How the Sixers final roster (main rotational players at least) will shape up.
3. How the entire NBA will look and where the balance of power will lie.  This is important to note for us to see how the competition will have grown or decreased in our division and conference.  How good you are is always relative to the competition.

I will update this post ongoing as I hear anything Sixers related or major league wide.  You guys are always on top of things as well, if you find something leave a link in the comments and I will add it to the post and give you credit.

Also this is the general post to use for your thoughts and ideas for what the Sixers should be doing in free agency.

Free Agency

FYI: Teams and this summer’s 100-plus free agents can reach verbal agreements at any time over the next seven days, but new contracts can’t actually be signed before July 8 while the league finishes determining the salary-cap figure for next season. The 2009-10 cap is likely to be close to last season’s $58.7 million per team based on the latest league-wide projections.

• Houston Rockets are going after Gortat hard.

Sixers Rumors

DEBUNKED: Miller for Blake and Outlaw

The Portland Tribune reports Kevin Pritchard shot down a rumor that Portland would send Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw to Philadelphia in a sign-and-trade for Andre Miller.

“No,” Pritchard said in a text message when asked if the trade would happen.

“Nothing to it,” a 76ers representative told the newspaper. – Portland Tribune

Sammy and Willie for Tracy McGrady?

From Ricky – Sixers4guidos this rumor about Sammy to Houston.

The Sixers could have a match now that Houston Rockets center Yao Ming might miss the entire season and possibly more with a foot injury.

The Rockets would also like to trade Tracy McGrady, who is entering the final season of his contract worth $23.2 million.

According to an NBA source, the Sixers might look into such a deal. In order to make the salaries match within 25 percent, the Sixers would have to include another player or two. Dalembert has two years and $23.6 million left, including $11.4 million next season.

But Dalembert also has a 15 percent trade kicker, which would add $3.8 million to his contract. That has been a huge roadblock in the Sixers’ previous attempts to trade him.

Another roadblock could be the other player, or players, the Sixers would have to include in the deal.

The Sixers would most likely be willing to include Willie Green ($3.7 million) and perhaps a future draft pick, but not Lou Williams ($5 million). – DelawareOnline.com

Not much to it really the obligatory “NBA source” is in there but that’s about it.  Houston does need center depth with Yao hurting and Dike gone.  Sammy can play defense, but they need better than just Sam since Yao was also their main source of individual offense and offensive flow.  I don’t see it happening but who knows.

I will say this, if Houston said add Lou to the deal along with Sam (and someone else so we don’t take back TOO much extra salary) for McGrady I think I would be all over it.  Willie can play Lou’s role off the bench fine in my opinion and I really just don’t see a need for him on this team.  Fill that spot with Christmas or some other shooting guard and allow Holiday to be the back-up point right away.

Sixers contact Mike Bibby

Concerned that 33-year-old Andre Miller wants too much money ($30 million) and too many years (three) to remain with the Sixers, team president Ed Stefanski has reached out to the Hawks’ Mike Bibby, according to a source close to the situation. – Tom Moore

The Sixers would have to get lucky to get a guy like Bibby or Kidd because they can’t outbid anyone.  Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Andre Miller Talk

I personally don’t want to see Andre Miller back.  I’d prefer to move on.  He just doesn’t fit my idea of the point guard the Sixers need.  They need a defender first and foremost.  They need a decent perimeter shooter at the position.  They need a pass-first guy who doesn’t need to dominate the ball in order to score.  I really don’t think Miller fits with any of those traits.  Sadly I truly believe Stefanski’s #1 priority is to resign Miller and will get right on that today if he hasn’t already begun talks this morning.

As far as the point guard situation this is how I see the Sixers progression this summer:

1. Attempt to resign Andre Miller to a 2-year deal in the range of $14M – $16M.  I’ve heard nothing but Stefanski saying they want Miller back if both sides are on board and can come to a good price that is what they will do.  Andre Miller’s agent has said nothing but his client wants to stay in Philly.  It’s all about the years and $$.
2. If that first deal isn’t acceptable for Miller I think Stefanski has 3 options.  1. Punk out and give him what he wants, locking the Sixers into another bad deal with an aging core player. 2. Immediately look for sign and trade partners and make the most out of any value Miller has left in the market and 3. Wait him out with the belief that no team will offer him the deal he wants (3-years, $30 M – speculated).  When that happens over the deal above again first see if he bites, if not add a $1M or $2M to it but remaining at only 2 years.
3. Sign and trade Andre Miller for value and stop gap at point to ease Holiday’s transition and development and still compete for a middling playoff spot.  Also get another position/skill of need in the deal in order  to make the most of any interest in Miller (Portland) and not just let him walk and get nothing.  At the end of the day we can still offer him the most money.
4. Let Miller walk and hope to god we can find an adequate replacement with our MLE.
5. Sign a guy for the veteran’s minimum to run point (Brevin Knight, Ronnie Price, Anthony Carter, Tyronn Lue, Kevin Ollie etc.) with the idea of having Holiday possibly play a bigger role earlier than expected and maybe even (ugh) have Lou play more point and use the MLE on another/best available player for the money if PG isn’t doable.
6. Iguodala run some point forward and Willie take some ball handling duties (ugh)
7. Lou is the starting point (double ugh)
8. Toss Holiday into the fire (ugh but would get me excited to see something new)

Thoughts?

Updates:

Andy Miller, the agent for Andre Miller believes the Sixers should sign his client to a contract which reflects his production on the floor.

“Our position hasn’t changed,” Andy Miller told the Philadelphia Daily News. “Andre has a strong interest, a strong desire to come back.

“We feel, from his body of work, Philadelphia should obviously reflect that in an offer, in appreciation for what he has done or what he can do for them in the future. We know the team has financial commitments elsewhere, but we also know Andre has continued to produce and deliver.

“If the fans want a team that can make the playoffs, that can win in the playoffs, the Sixers would be hard-pressed to find someone at the position who can produce like Andre.” – Philly.com

Mid-Level Exception Usage

I’ve been on the Marcin Gortat bandwagon for a while now.  I think he is the best available option for the Sixers as a center of the future at a modest price this summer.  He makes Dalembert even more expendable and you no longer have to worry about his blow-ups or mishaps and benchings.  Word is Houston is going after him hard and I believe the Knicks are seriously interested as well so the Sixers have competition.  To be honest I would approach him with the idea that he can come in and compete for the starting job, that it isn’t a lock that Sam as the incumbant has it locked by default.

More to come…

Related posts:

1. Eagles Free Agency Rumors: Live Updates
2. 76ers Rumors: Corey Maggette on the Sixers’ Free Agent Radar
3. Louis Williams: The Forgotten Sixers Free Agent

Luckily for us, almost the entire NL East has been playing this way, here are our division rivals records during our 4-11 swoon…

New York: 5-10
Atlanta: 5-10
Florida: 9-6
Washington: 6-9

Only Florida has made up significant ground, and they now sit in 2nd place, 2 1/2 games back. The important thing for the Phillies to realize at this point is that they are still very much in charge of their own destiny, and we aren’t even half way through the season. There is a ton of baseball left.

2009: 39-34
2008: 42-31
2007: 38-35

I’m not going to do the whole good news / bad news thing, just bullet point what’s been on my mind…

• Even though Amaro is frantically searching for pitching, it’s our hitting that has been the cause of our June slump. In June, we have hit .247 as a team. The biggest slumpers this month have been Rollins (.176), Ruiz (.185) and Howard (.237).
• Our starters on the other hand, have been solid with the exception of the 5-spot. Happ (3.00 ERA), Hamels (3.31) and Blanton (3.34) were all great, and Moyer (4.80) was at least improved. This is still not a rotation that will go deep into the playoffs, but we don’t have to worry about that just yet.
• So who gets the start on Thursday? I’m fine with either Carpenter or Carrasco. On on hand, I’d like to put some pressure on Carrasco and see how he reacts. He pitched so-so in Reading and then was lights out once he got promoted to AAA, maybe the same thing could happen with a major league call-up. On the other hand, Carpenter has been amazing since going back down to AAA after his spot start. He has a 1.50 ERA in 8 starts and has gone 7+ innings while giving up 1 run or less in 5 of those. I couldn’t really disagree with either decision, but if I had to make the decision, I think I’d put Carrasco in there and see what he’s made of. Either way, we need one of these guys to step up the way Kendrick did 2 years ago.
• Amaro said that Drabek would remain in the minors the rest of the year. This is absolutely the right decision. He just had Tommy John surgery and we need to take our time with him.
• On Rollins – I think he will come around eventually and end the year around .250-.260, but I wonder what his long term future with the team is. He is signed through next year, but there is a team option for $8.5 million for 2011. You have to wonder, if Jimmy can’t turn this thing around, and with Jason Donald as a good replacement, whether or not his time with the Phils is running out. Hard to imagine this team without Jimmy.
• On Romero – he’s an idiot. Nothing quite exonerates you of steroid use than displaying “roid rage.” Akin to congress talking about how steroids can cause ones emotions to fluctuate wildly followed by Mark McGwire strongly saying he’s not there to talk about the past and then bursting into tears. Curse out the fan all you want, you obviously can’t hit him.
• Mayberry needs to be kept up on the team when Ibanez gets back. Paul Bako, Eric Bruntlett and Jack Taschner should not be on a major league roster.
• I’m working on an organizational depth chart, like I did for the outfield in my Michael Taylor article. I want to start thinking more like the Phillies should be thinking and looking both at the present and the future of the club. Look for that later this week.

Pitching Match-Ups: Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Tuesday: Blanton vs. Derek Lowe (7-6, 4.53 ERA)
Wednesday: Hamels vs. Jair Jurrjens (5-6, 2.93 ERA)
Thursday: TBD vs. Javier Vasquez (5-7, 3.04 ERA)

Prediction

The Phillies catch some bad luck and will meet the Braves 3 toughest starters. However, unlike any team I’ve ever followed, the Phillies seems to follow a similar pattern year after year, so I’m sticking with what they did last year in this situation and say they beat the Braves 2 out of 3. Hopefully Rollins’ days off will clear his head and get him motivated and the right handed pitchers will get Howard on track.

Related posts:

1. Phillies Rumors: Phils Hot For Holliday?
2. Phils rock Cards, crumble vs. Mets
3. It’s Game 4 all over again! Stairs’ blast gives Phils series

Editor’s Note: Bill Conlin wrote a piece on this subject a week or so ago. I don’t read Conlin, so if I am repeating anything he said, I apologize.

As the Phillies miraculously sit 2 1/2 games ahead of the Mets in NL East despite playing some of the worst baseball we have seen from them in several years, GM Ruben Amaro is all over the map looking for starting pitching and relief pitching to help our depleted staff. Obviously, any trade for a starter these days is going to take some of your better prospects. RHP Kyle Drabek and OF Dominic Brown appear to be the only untouchables at this point but I would implore Mr. Amaro to add Michael Taylor to that list. Here’s why:

1. Taylor has a chance to be a unique, and special player

Taylor’s size (6′6”, 250 lbs) would make you think that he is a stereotypical power hitter. However, his numbers indicate that he is a far better hitter than that. He’s ranks first, second or third in the Eastern League in 9 offensive categories. If you extrapolate out Taylor’s number over a 162 game season (he has played 71), they look like this:

Sure, the power numbers are there (32 HR, 125 RBI) but look at some of the others. How many guys with that run production can you think of that hit .340, with 30 SB, 9 3B and under 100 strikeouts? The answer? None. There has never been a player in baseball history that hit .340 with 30 HR, 125 RBI, 30 SB and 5 3B while striking out less than 100 times. Yes, that’s the majors and this is AA, obviously that is a huge factor. But you can still see that Taylor is unique in that, much like Albert Pujols, his power does not deter from his overall efficiency or his speed on the basepaths. He won’t be Pujols, no one will, but Pujols-lite isn’t something you’d turn away.

2. Our outfield is set-up perfectly right now

By this I mean that if we play our cards right, we won’t have a hole in, or have to overspend on, our outfield for many years. If we were to trade Werth this year or in the off-season, our outfield set-up would look like this for immediate future.

Right there you are looking at a seamless transition moving forward and that 2012 outfield is going to come pretty cheap, giving us room to spend our money in other areas. It might be tough to keep Brown in the minors until 2012 if he keeps progressing the way he has, but that will be a good problem to have. By 2011-12, it’s possible we’d have a bunch of young, cheap players on the team (Donald, Marson, Carrasco, Drabek, Brown, Taylor) giving us a chance to spend some money and continue to be very competitive after this current “3-year window” is closed.

3. Werth can net you a high-quality player

I love Jayson Werth and have nothing against him. But he’s 30, and I don’t forsee us re-signing him after the 2010 season. He’s a 5-tool player who has shown he can be productive (on pace for 34 HR, 97 RBI this season) in a full time role. Any team that need a starting outfield upgrade would be interested in trading for him. From the Phillies perspective, you can deal him, save some money short term and long term, and theoretically not lose production (perhaps even increase production) by bringing Taylor up, all while adding a key piece (starter or high-quality reliever) to your team. I would probably wait until after this season to make such a move, as that would be a lot of pressure to put on Taylor mid-season.

Final Thoughts

Obviously there is no guarantee that Michael Taylor will continue the growth and production he has shown the last 2 years, but in the MLB, young, cheap, productive players are the greatest asset an organization can have. Considering we won a World Series with a team full of homegrown players, we know this better than most teams. Taylor has shown nothing that would indicate that he will be anything different than Rollins, Utley and Howard once he reaches the majors. Meanwhile, we have a piece in Jayson Werth that could simultaneously improve our team while saving us money to use in other places. The Phillies have a chance to build a long-term contender past their current 3-year window, and as someone who doesn’t ever want to see a return to the doldrums of 1994-2006, I believe they should do everything they can to make smart decisions that will keep that window open.

Related posts:

1. Amaro on a roll: Signs Werth to 2-year deal
2. Rowand vs. Jenkins/Werth – Is there a $47 million dollar difference?
3. Would you make this trade for Roy Halladay?