A new baseball season will always get my juices flowing, so here is my quick take on the Phillies 25-man roster and my predictions for the season.

Catcher

Carlos Ruiz – Ruiz is the only reason the Phillies didn’t finish well below .500 last year. He will miss the first 25 games due to suspension. Chances are, at age 33, last year was his career year and it’s not logical to think that he will trot out a .540 SLG% again in 2013. Combine that with him missing 15% of the games out of the gate, and his value should be a good amount lower than last year.

2012 bWAR: 4.4
2010-12 Avg: 3.6
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 3.0

First Base

Ryan Howard - Howard hasn’t had a healthy season since 2010. However, he looks great in spring training and many are holding out hope that he can rebound. Casual fans tend to overvalue Howard by focusing on his ability to drive in runs and ignoring his horrendous fielding, baserunning and sub-par plate discipline. SABR folks undervalue him a bit by ignoring his clear increase in performance with runners on base (.977 career OPS w/ runners on vs. .851 w/ bases empty). I fall somewhere in-between but tend to skew towards the SABR crowd. Neither side would argue that his health isn’t a positive heading into 2013.

2012 bWAR: -1.2
2010-12 Avg: 0.3
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 1.5

Second Base

Chase Utley - Far more important than Howard’s health is the health of Utley, who is playing in spring training games for the first time in years. A fully healthy Utley could mean huge things for the Phillies. Playing hurt, and in only 83 games last year, he STILL posted a 2.9 bWAR, 6th among NL 2B. At age 34, and likely playing for his last big contract, Utley’s year will be very interesting to watch.

2012 bWAR: 2.9
2010-12 Avg: 4.1
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 4.0

Third Base

Michael Young - Let’s get one thing out of the way. Michael Young is going to be a bad, bad defensive 3B. Probably the worst in the league. He played over 200 innings there last season and the only player in baseball who was worse defensively at 3B was Greg Dobbs. He might make a play or two, but he’s going to be slow and not get to many balls someone like Polanco might have. So the key with him is – can his bat make up for it? Up until last season, the answer was ‘yes’ for the 10 years prior. The Phillies are obviously hoping for a rejuvenation and it’s not a horrible bet on 1 year deal.

2012 bWAR: -2.4
2010-12 Avg: 0.4
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.5

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins - Consistency. Jimmy will be streaky, he will probably loaf on one pop fly and make a bunch of idiots go crazy, but at the end of the day we are still talking about a complete short-stop who is among the best in the league.

2012 bWAR: 2.3
2010-12 Avg: 2.2
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 2.0

Center Field

Ben Revere - Love, love, love this kid. Almost all of his value (defense and baserunning) comes from his speed and at 24 (we have a 24-year old on our team?) this isn’t likely to leave him any time soon. He’s not going to hit for power AT ALL, but when he gets on base he’ll be a terror. If he can incorporate walks into his game a bit (check out this fascinating article by Corey Seidman on the topic) he could very well be the next Michael Bourn.

2012 bWAR: 2.4
2011-12 Avg: 1.6
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 2.5

Left Field

Domonic Brown - I’m a big Brown fan – or at least, a big fan of giving him a regular job and a fair shot. He’s certainly been helping his case in the spring and locked down an outfield job. His defense still isn’t great and he’ll have to hit well to overcome it. Even though he didn’t have great numbers last year, he consistently had good ABs and still has the potential for a full offensive arsenal. That being said, projecting him as anything other that an average player is a leap for me based on his prior performance.

2012 bWAR: -1.0
2011-12 Avg: -0.6
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.5

Right Field

Delmon Young - I could go on and on about how much I hate this move. Delmon Young is bad baseball player with a bad attitude. Like Michael Young, he was among the worst players in baseball year. Unlike Michael Young, he has zero track before that indicates he could be a better baseball player this year.  He’s had one good year (and it wasn’t even THAT good, because his defense is SO bad), and could possibly take ABs away from Domonic Brown. Everyone says ‘what’s the risk?’ – but the risk is that he PLAYS. And the risk is that the Phillies, in their infinite wisdom, don’t think his RF defense is as bad as it’s going to be. Nate Schierholtz, who the Phillies released for no reason at all, would have been an infinitely better option.

2012 bWAR: -1.2
2010-12 Avg: -0.5
2013 bWAR (Proj.): -1.0

Starting Rotation

Cole Hamels - Wonderfully consistent the last 3 years after adding a cutter to his arsenal. Average year: 213.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 207 K, 1.10 WHIP. Thrilled to have him in the fold for the next 6 years.

2012 bWAR: 4.2
2011-12 Avg: 5.2
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 5.2

Cliff Lee - Easily, EASILY the dumbest narrative of 2012 Phillies season was the craze over Cliff Lee’s win total. Cliff Lee pitched 211 innings with a 3.16 ERA and a league leading 7.4 K/BB ratio. He had 6 wins due to bad luck and horrendous run support. Not that after single-handedly leading 2 teams to the World Series he suddenly lost his ‘edge.’ Joe Blanton had 10 wins. You can have him on your team, I’ll take Lee.

2012 bWAR: 4.2
2011-12 Avg: 5.8
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 4.7

Roy Halladay - While Lee and others got the headlines and blame, Halladay’s tranformation from 8.0 WAR, best pitcher in baseball, to 0 WAR injury risk was the main reason the Phillies season played out the way it did. In spring, he’s talked about changes he’s made to his regimen and the results have been mixed. At 36, how much can we really expect? It seems that his velocity is gone for good and he’ll have to rely on command and movement. He’s got the stuff to do it, but how hard a transition will it be?

2012 bWAR: 0.7
2011-12 Avg: 5.8
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 2.0

Kyle Kendrick - I’m going to lay off Kendrick this year. At least give him the benefit of the doubt for a bit. After a very painful 2008-2010, he’s been solid the last two seasons in a variety of roles. The most promising sign was last year’s jump in K/9 rate to a not-horrible 6.6. In his 25 starts last season, he had a 3.89 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. I think we’d all take that in a heartbeat from our 4th starter.

2012 bWAR: 1.3
2011-12 Avg: 1.0
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 1.0

John Lannan - I liked the Lannan pick-up as a 5th starter. I’d have preferred a Marcum or even taken a chance on a guy like Dan Haren, but we could have done worse than Lannan.

2012 bWAR: 0.5
2011-12 Avg: 0.8
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.0

Bench

Erik Kratz -Kratz was a masher off the bench last year. His .504 SLG% was 2nd on the team. As a 33 year old career minor league, he’s not likely to ever challenge for the starting job, but perhaps he can provide us with another Chris Coste type story.

2012 bWAR: 1.4
2010-12 Avg: N/A
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.5

Freddy Galvis - Galvis is an elite defender who can be placed anywhere in the infield. His bat has come along a bit too and if Charlie Manuel was smart, he’d make sure he’s starting at least once a week in place of Utley, Rollins or Young.

2012 bWAR: 0.6
2010-12 Avg: N/A
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.5

Laynce Nix - Nix is theoretically not as bad as he looked last year. Provided he doesn’t EVER hit against lefties, he can be a decent bench piece.

2012 bWAR: 0.1
2010-12 Avg: 0.9
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.0

John Mayberry - Right now this is Inciarte until Delmon Young comes back. Not that it really matters.

2012 bWAR: 0.5
2011-12 Avg: 1.1
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.5

Kevin Frandsen - Michael Young has the track record, but after Young’s 2012 season, I wouldn’t have minded if the Phillies just stuck Frandsen at 3rd for a stopgap year. At the very least, he’s probably a better defensive player there. Frandsen’s .338 BA last season was a bit lucky, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still hit in the .280 – .300 range.

2012 bWAR: 1.5
2011-12 Avg: N/A
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.5

Bullpen

Jonathan Papelbon - The bullpen was another area that crushed the Phillies in 2012, but it wasn’t because of Papelbon. His contract might be foolish (you can have a bad contract AND be a good player, by the way), but he pitched very well in 2012 with a 2.44 ERA and 11.8 K/9.

2012 bWAR: 1.6
2010-12 Avg: 1.1
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 1.5

Mike Adams - If healthy, a fantastic pick-up by the Phillies. The tall, lanky Adams has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past several years. This is a guy who had a 1.42 ERA over 177 innings prior to pitching hurt last season. His great spring was under-reported amid the many other story-lines.

2012 bWAR: 1.2
2010-12 Avg: 1.9
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 1.2

Antonio Bastardo - Talk about a confusing player. His 14.0 K/9 in 2012 was among the best ever. There have only been 13 other seasons in MLB history where a pitcher had 50+ IP and 14+ K/9. Average other stats for those years? 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.3 WAR. Bastardo’s 2012 numbers? 4.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, -0.2 WAR. If he can regain his consistency of 2011, he has the stuff to regain that form.

2012 bWAR: -0.2
2010-12 Avg: 0.5
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.8

Chad Durbin - Durbin is back with the Phillies after a solid season with Atlanta where he sported a 3.10 ERA in 61 IP. He doesn’t have the stuff to be a late inning guy and will probably fill the long relief role for the Phillies. He is the last pitcher on this list that is guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster.

2012 bWAR: 0.3
2011-12 Avg: 0.1
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.2

Phillipe Aumont - He has the stuff to be an elite reliever. When he is on, he is unhittable. When he is not, he can’t find the strike zone. Either way, he’s one of the few young players the Phillies have these days that make me stop what I’m doing to watch him play.

2012 bWAR: 0.2
2011-12 Avg: n/a
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.5

Jeremy Horst - Very, very good last year (1.15 ERA), especially considering his arrival meant the departure of Wilson Valdez. Fantastic K/9 rate (11.5) gives me hope that he’s not a one-year wonder.

2012 bWAR: 0.9
2011-12 Avg: 0.5
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.5

Raul Valdes - Beat out several candidates for the final bullpen spot and earned it. A 2.90 ERA and 0.74 WHIP last year and 22 K to 1 BB in spring training this year. Having 3 lefties in the bullpen should be a great asset.

2012 bWAR: 0.6
2011-12 Avg: 0.3
2013 bWAR (Proj.): 0.5

Summary

You can add up all my projected WAR’s here and get an 85-87 win projection, which is about where Vegas has us (85.5).

As always, there is some upside (Utley is capable of a huge year, Hamels could have a career year, Brown and/or Revere could be great) and downside (Halladay could be done, Ruiz could regress further that we think, Adams could be hurt), etc, etc… but it seems like the Phillies will at the very least be in the wild card race most of the year.

One thing is clear. The offense and bullpen needs to be considerably better than last year because starters 3-5 all have question marks. Both have a chance to do so, however.

The rest of the league

Because I did it for my over/under bets, here is how I have the rest of the league ranked to start the year…

1. Tigers, 98 wins
2. Nationals, 96
3. Rays, 91
4. Angels, 91
5. Blue Jays, 89
6. Dodgers, 89
7. Reds, 88
8. Giants, 88
9. Braves, 86
10. Athletics, 86
11. Rangers, 85
12. Phillies, 85
13. Diamondbacks, 84
14. Cardinals, 84
15. Yankees, 84
16. Red Sox, 83
17. Royals, 82
18. Orioles, 79
19. Brewers, 79
20. Pirates, 78
21. Indians, 78
22. White Sox, 78
23. Cubs, 75
24. Rockies, 75
25. Padres, 74
26. Mariners, 74
27. Mets, 72
28. Twins, 67
29. Marlins, 65
30. Astros, 58

While the blog is not officially retired, it more or less is. I write a lot of stuff on Twitter these days (follow me @reclinergm) but simply don’t have the time to maintain the blog here full time for a variety of reasons.

HOWEVER… I do plan on occasionally posting longer stuff here that doesn’t really fit in 140 characters. This blog was originally created because I do stuff like this on my own all the time and thought others might find it interesting. I will continue to do that once a month or so. So sign up for the e-mail alerts if you have interest.

Recently, I’ve been trying to dissect the Phillies 2012 campaign and figure out what I think they should do in the off-season. To do that, we first have to establish what went wrong… Below is a simple chart that compares the 2011, 102-win-version to the 2012, 81-win-model. As is usually the case for me, I’m going to start with WAR. And if you are still skeptical of the value of WAR as a stat, take a look at the team total for 2011 vs. 2012. Phillies team WAR was 21.8 lower in 2012. Their actual win total was 21 less. Not a perfect stat but that’s not a coincidence.

Here is the comparison (it’s comprehensive, obviously. I accounted for every player). I will summarize the main points at the end.

My observations:

• For all the talk about what went wrong with the Phillies – it seems like there is really one thing that played, by far, the biggest part. Roy Halladay’s ongoing health issues and drop in performance was the single biggest problem for the team as he was worth almost 8 full wins less than 2011. 8 WAR is a huge number for a pitcher for a single-season, let alone a season-to-season drop. I wasn’t expecting him to duplicate 2011, but for him to turn into basically a replacement level pitcher might have been the difference between a .500 record and 90 wins.
• The rest of the rotation declined, but not necessarily in surprising fashion. Both Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee had excellent seasons but dropped from 2011 and Vance Worley very predictably couldn’t duplicate his 2011 season. The 22.8 win drop in the Phillies pitching is as much an indication of just how historically good they were in 2011 as how underwhelming they were in 2012. But if you want a top-level idea of why the Phillies floundered in 2012, the answer is “they had the possibly best rotation in baseball history in 2011, and didn’t in 2012, and nothing filled in the gap.”
• The bullpen was among the areas that didn’t fill in that gap. It wasn’t great in 2011, but was still over 4 wins worse in 2012. The only holdover was Papelbon filling in nicely for Madson’s great 2011. Bastardo’s strange year hurt.
• The offense was actually better in 2012, but this was in large part due to the amazing season of Carlos Ruiz (+1.8 wins) and the unlikely bench contributions of Juan Pierre, Erik Kratz, Kevin Frandsen and others. Even single opening day regular besides Ruiz performed worse in 2012 with the biggest issues being a-still-hobbled Howard, Victorino and Pence.
• The offensive bench saved this team. The ‘regular bench’ and ‘other hitters’ categories had a 6.3 win improvement over 2011. With 2011′s horrible bench, we are a 75-win team.
• Don’t mistake the offense ‘improving’ over 2011 as a sign that it is OK. The offense wasn’t great in 2011 either. For a reference point, in our offensive hey-day (2006-2009), our offense WAR for the team averaged 26.2, more than 10 wins better than either of the last two seasons.

So how do we fix this?

Let’s start with some housekeeping items…

• Decline the options on Ty Wigginton, Placido Polanco and Jose Contreras
• Non-tender Nate Schierholtz and Michael Martinez
• Do NOT trade Cliff Lee. Your bad contracts are Howard and Papelbon, NOT the guy who just pitched 440+ innings at a sub-3 ERA over the last two seasons for you. Cut it out.
• Do NOT trade Jimmy Rollins. He’s still a top-5 SS and a consistant 2-3 win player. Freddy Galvis CANNOT hit. I repeat, Freddy Galvis CANNOT hit.

For the complete list and explanation of criteria and scoring, check out the Philly Fifty page

Longevity – 5

The pitcher who has thrown the most innings professionally in Philadelphia? It’s not Robin Roberts (3,739 IP), but lefty Eddie Plank, who threw 14 straight seasons for the A’s from 1901-1914, and averaged an amazing 276 innings per season. His 3,860 innings are the most in Philly’s history.

Peak – 4

It’s hard to identify a peak for Plank – he was very good his entire career. He was top-10 in the MLB in in WAR for pitchers 11 times, top-5 7 times, but only 2nd once. During his 14-year stint with the A’s, only Christy Mathewson had a higher WAR. Think of a Cole Hamels-type talent who never quite made it to Roy Halladay.

Popularity – 1

More people in this town have probably heard of Jason Pridie.

Team Success – 5

Plank was a huge piece of Connie Mack’s first dynasty with the A’s. In his 14 seasons, they went 1,222-838-38. That’s a 59% winning percentage, or about 96 wins per season on today’s 162 game schedule. So take the Phillies run the last 5 years, include this year and then stretch it out until 2020 and you’ve got an idea what the A’s were like in the regular season with Plank around. In the playoffs (just the WS at that time), the A’s went to 5, winning 3.

Awards – 3

There was no Cy Young award yet, as he was still pitching, but as mentioned above, Plank is the type of pitcher who would likely have gone to a lot of all-star games, but never won a lot of hardware.

Stats – 4

Plank pitched 1,200 more innings than anyone else during the A’s time in Philadelphia (1901-1954). Because of this, he’s first in all the counting stats: complete games (362), shutouts (59), wins (284), losses (162), strikeouts (1,985) and walks (913). In terms of rate stats, he’s 4th in ERA (2.39), 6th in ERA+ (120) and 3rd in WHIP (1.23). In terms of WAR, he was the most valuable pitcher in the history of city (for his career), even above Steve Carlton and Lefty Grove, at 69.5 wins above replacement.

Historical Standing – 3

He is a Hall of Famer, but having pitched so early on in the sports’ history, he’s not really a celebrated one. Despite all his lofty stats above, it took him several tries to get in (didn’t get in until 1946), which shows more about how the process has changed rather than him being not worthy.

Excitement – 3

He was not a power pitcher, which tends to put a few more butts in the seats. His 4.6 K/9 rate is downright Kendrick-ian, though obviously in a different era. He was consistent but never the best.

Total: 28

For the complete list and explanation of criteria and scoring, check out the Philly Fifty page

The basic exercise is to put together what I think the Sixers’ big board should look like, based on my assessment of the talent in the draft and the needs on the team. Then I watch the draft and get super-pissed when they don’t do what I said, as if I’m a professional scout or something.

That being said… ahem…

The Sixers are in a good position in the draft in that there looks to be a good player available at #15 at a position of need (SG, PF, C).

Personally, I would love to see the Sixers end up with a G and F/C in the draft that can replace Lou Williams and Spencer Hawes at a fraction of the cost. I think that’s possible – but more on that later. Let’s get the Big Board…

1. Anthony Davis, PF

No brainer. He was a game changer at the college level and has a good chance to be the same in the NBA.

2. Bradley Beal, SG

Lots of mystery about who might go #2, but I think this would be an easy pick for the Sixers. Beal is a pure off-the-ball shooter and scorer the team desperately needs. Could a package around Dre and the #15 get the Sixers up to 2? Probably not, but the Bobcats are shopping.

3. Thomas Robinson, PF

Tough choice here for me between T-Rob and Barnes, but T-Rob seems like the safer pick to me. He tested out as a very good athlete in the combine and is a very well-rounded player. Probably not quite an all-star, but could come in and replace Brand right away.

4. Harrison Barnes, SF

Never lived up to his high school billing, but he is a scorer and also tested as a super athlete at the combine. Could probably use some coaching up, but his upside is still considerable.

5. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF

This is one of those, “but then we trade Iguodala” picks. MKG brings a lot to the table, but not necessarily stuff we don’t have. He’s not a gifted scorer, but gives you pretty much everything else. For another team, I’d probably have him as high a #2.

6. Andre Drummond, C

He looked so horrible whenever I saw him play this year, it pains me to put him here. But we are still talking about a guy who is nearly 7 feet, 280 lbs and can do this.

The general consensus is that those are top-6 players in the draft. It’s certainly possible that they don’t go top-6, but there is no chance any of them fall to #15. Many of the remaining guys won’t last until #15, but it’s possible they will. 

7. John Henson, PF

I’ve been going back and forth here between Lamb and Henson and will probably continue to do so even though it’s unlikely either makes it to #15. I have Henson here because the Sixers are dying for an interior defensive presence and Henson can provide that. His 9’4” standing reach is outrageous. How much so? It’s 4 inches taller than Anthony Davis,  2.5 inches taller than Andre Drummond, 0.5 inches taller than Dwight Howard, the same as Greg Oden…OK I think you get it. Among PF and C prospects in our range, he has the most blks/36 by far (4.0) and highest Reb/36 (13.7).

8. Jeremy Lamb, SG

Originally, I had Lamb a little lower because he seemed too passive to me when I watched him play. But the fact of the matter is, with Jrue and ET as our primary ball handlers he could very well be the perfect compliment to them. He can shoot, and he measured out freakish at the combine. His 6’11 wingspan and 38 inch vert give him a vertical reach better than most PF and C prospects in the draft.

9. Tyler Zeller, PF/C

An incredibly safe pick. He measured out as a legit 7-footer, can score, shoot, rebound, block a few shots. He’s not going to be an all-star, but I would consider him an upgrade over Spencer Hawes. His Per/36 numbers for his senior were more well-rounded than any other PF/C prospect: 23.2 points, 55% FG, 81% FT, 13.6 reb, 2.2 blks.

10. Terrence Ross, SG

Similar to Lamb in that he is a good-sized SG that is super-athletic and can shoot it. Probably a safer pick than Lamb, but with less upside.

11. Dion Waiters, SG

A rising prospect who may not fit in with the Sixers as well as Ross or Lamb because he didn’t play off the ball much at Syracuse. He has drawn some comparisons to a poor-mans Dwyane Wade. It seems he has a promise in the lottery, so the Sixers would likely have to trade up.

12. Jared Sullinger, PF

If not for his medical “red flag” I’d still only have him at #10, so I don’t consider this a big drop. Teams will be scared off by that and by his really, really bad athletic testing but Sullinger makes up for it with some considerable skill. He can work in the post, but also shot 40% from 3 and 77% from the FT line. For a guy who looked certain to go Top-5 last year, and Top-10 this year, you couldn’t really argue with the Sixers taking a chance at #15.

13. Terrence Jones, PF

He can be a dominant force…when he wants to be. He disappeared a lot during Kentucky games this year, but when he was on, he was really good. He appears big enough to play PF in the NBA, and if the Sixers draft him, they would do well to do what they did with Thad and not allow him to shoot any more 3′s. John Hollinger’s draft rater has him as the 8th best prospect in the draft, and David Thorpe thinks he’d be the perfect fit for the Sixers.

14. Austin Rivers, SG

Tough to tell what he’s going to be after 1 year in school, but it seems like his ceiling is a Jason Terry type player. I would certainly take that over a Lou Williams type. He will likely be gone when the Sixers pick.

15. Perry Jones III, PF

This would be a pure upside pick. He’s an ultra-athletic player with a Kevin Garnett frame who appears to have about 1/10th of the desire that KG has. That being said, 6’11” skilled players with 39 inch verticals don’t come along often. In the mid-first, he might be worth seeing if Collins and co. can get through.

Theoretically – Jones is the “worst” case scenario for me since we pick at 15. I will shorten up my write-ups from here on out. 

16. Damian Lillard, PG – Might go as high as #6, but we don’t need a PG

17. Arnett Moultrie, PF – Big and athletic, but how can someone with a 12 ft vertical reach only average 0.9 blks per 36?

18. Andrew Nicholson, PF – I like this kid a lot. He has been compared to David West and I think that is dead on. He can really, really shoot it. Best FG% of any PF/C prospects in the Sixers range.

19. Kendall Marshall, PG – Seems to me he would make a quality back-up PG behind Jrue.

20. Quincy Miller, SF – A wild card like his teammate PJIII. Hollinger’s player rater has him as a major sleeper.

21. Royce White, PF – Too much of a point-forward for the Sixers at this time.

22. Evan Fournier, SG – Intriguing foreign SG prospect who is apparently a natural scorer.

23. Draymond Green, PF – Could be a very solid bench player. Does all the little things.

24. Fab Melo, C – Potentially dominant defensive force with almost no offensive game. Could be useful as a back-up center.

25. Meyers Leonard, C - I do. not. care. about. his. upside. 7’1”, white center, with so-so rebounding/blk numbers and a project on offense. I honestly can’t think of one player who fits this profile who succeeded in the NBA.

26. John Jenkins, SG - Shootah!

27. Doron Lamb, SG – Shootah!

28. Tony Wroten, PG – Project PG

29. Will Barton, SG – Could be a solid bench contributor

30. Jared Cunningham, SG – Ditto

2nd round looks…

Tyshawn Taylor, PG
Maalik Wayns, PG
Furkan Aldemir, PF
Drew Gordon, PF
Festus Ezeli, C
Miles Plumlee, C
Henry Sims, C

So what is an ideal draft for the Sixers?

Frankly, as long as they end up with someone in my top-15 I won’t be too upset. I think  9-15 on my board is pretty darn interchangeable and I’m sure I could be convinced to put them in almost any order.

My biggest fear in this off-season is that the Sixers re-sign Lou Williams, Spencer Hawes, or both. As I said earlier, I think they could replace both in this draft.

Let’s play around with one scenario that is particularly intriguing to me: trading Andre Igoudala for the #7 or #8 pick (and hopefully something else). The only sound rumor I’ve heard is Dre to the Raptors for #8, Ed Davis and Jose Calderon (to make the $$ work).

If they Sixers did that deal, they could use #8 to take either John Henson or Jeremy Lamb. Then, they could use #15 to fill the other need with either Tyler Zeller, Terrence Ross, Terrence Jones, or anyone who falls to that spot. Someone good will be there.

For the purpose of this exercise, let’s say the Sixers make that move with the Raptors. Then take John Henson at #8, and Terrence Ross at #15. If they stand relatively pat in the FA market (probably a good idea, not a great class) – they could go into the 2013-14 season with the following:

G – Jrue Holiday, 23
G – Evan Turner, 25
F – Thad Young, 25
F – John Henson, 22
C – Nik Vucevic, 23

Bench: Terrence Ross, 22 and Lavoy Allen, 24 and Ed Davis, 24

Oh, and ahem, a lot, a lot, a lot of cap room to go after someone like Blake Grffin.

I think the Sixers best plan right now is to collect young assets and manage the cap, which means they have to draft well and not sign stupid contracts. It might mean a step-back in 2012-13, but that’s better than living the rest of our lives in 7-9 seed hell.

I think the above scenario (or something like it) is best thing that could happen to this team long-term.

So any draft talk you have can go here – let me know what you think and who you want the Sixers to shoot for…

For a while there, it looked like the best-case scenario might come true as the team got out to a 20-9 start… only to follow it up with a 15-22 finish. I’m not going to lie, at the end of the season, I was hoping they wouldn’t even make the playoffs.

But they did, and one Derrick Rose knee ligament changed everything. The beat the Bulls, and then took the Celtics to 7 games. They showed their flaws (scoring, much?) and their assets (defense, athleticism, hustle). They gave the fans and ownership a glimpse of what the team would look like in a big series – something we would have only been able to imagine if not for poor Mr. Rose.

So where do we stand now? After a couple years of “figuring out what we have” – the Sixers are in a position to actually have some roster flexibility. The next two years will define whether or not the franchise will continuously be doomed to 7th-9th seed purgatory – or whether new ownership can pair some savvy basketball moves with their enthusiasm and bring back some genuine excitement.

So what will the next 24 months bring? Here’s where I think they should start (ages as of Oct 31, 2012), ranked in order of likelihood to return…

1. Jrue Holiday, 22

Quick 2012 wrap: His regular season was a disappointment, seemingly taking a step back from 2010. Everything (Pts, FG%, Ast, Reb, FT%) went down except his 3p%. He played in the playoffs (18.4 PER vs. 14.7 PER in regular season) – how we hoped he would play all year.

Contract: On his rookie deal signed through next year and will be a RFA after that.

Verdict: I often have to remind myself that Jrue is still young. He’s only 3 months older than John Wall. He’s 16 months younger than Lavoy Allen. This was only his second season as a starter and it came without a proper off-season. I’m not going to say I didn’t expect more from him in 2011-12, but he showed plenty of signs in the playoffs of the player I think he can be (all-star level, 2nd-3rd best player on a really good team). As to what he will be, let’s hope he took a step this May.

2. Thaddeus Young, 24

Quick 2012 wrap: Did little to improve in his first year of his new contract. Scored at lower rate with a lower shooting % and lower rebound rate. Still a solid sub, but continues to be somewhat one-dimensional.

Contract: Signed longer than any other player on team. To make $8 million next year, $8.6 in 2013-14, $9.2 in 2014-15 and has a player option for $9.7 in 2015-16.

Verdict: Doug Collins’ favorite player didn’t show me much this year. I still like him as a rotational player, but you get the sense he could be more. Was a big no-show in the playoffs due to injuries and match-up problems (7.7 pts, 5 rebs, 42.9% FG). He will probably stay in the same role next year. He’s still young enough to get better.

3. Nik Vucevic, 22

Quick 2012 wrap: I was not pleased with the draft pick at the time, and even though the guy I pleaded for (Kenneth Faried) was a 1st team all-rookie, I don’t hate the Vucevic pick anymore. He showed a nice offensive game, and played hard on defense and the boards, leading the team Reb/36 minutes.

Contract: Rookie deal runs through 2015-16, when he become a RFA.

Verdict: Vucevic vanished down the stretch as Collins obviously decided he wasn’t ready – but he showed plenty of signs he can be a better version of Spencer Hawes (take that for what it is) given the chance.

4. Evan Turner, 24

Quick 2012 wrap: The toughest player to read for me this year. His 10 best games this year: 21.2 pts, 9.4 reb, 3.9 ast, 57.8 FG%. His other 55: 7.2 pts, 5.1 reb, 2.6 ast, 39.9 FG%. He improved slightly across the board, but lacked consistency and still needs to improve a jumper I’m not sure will improve.

Contract: Two more years on his rookie deal, then RFA in 2014-15.

Verdict: Let me put it this way – I personally have a lot more confidence that Jrue will become great than I do Turner. If he was a hair more athletic or a slightly more consistent shooter I’d feel differently. Still, he’s shown enough potential that you have to give him another year but I wouldn’t put me on “Team Evan” at the moment.

5. Lavoy Allen, 24

Quick 2012 wrap: A draft pick that looked like a favor to a local kid more than anything else, he played well at times in the regular season, but broke out in the playoffs with excellent defense, energy and a reliable jumper.

Contract: Unfortunately, the Sixers must have not thought Allen would be a player of note (let’s face it, we pretty much all felt that way), and signed him to 2nd round contract that deems him a RFA this year.

Verdict: Allen’s breakout was a highlight of the playoffs, but I would caution the Sixers against overreacting. We are talking a small sample size and someone who in the end only averaged 6 points and 5 rebounds per game in the playoffs. I am 100% behind bringing him back and giving him big time minutes to see what he’s got – but think he’s far from a sure thing at this point.

I’d say the 5 above are pretty much 80%+ to return next year. There is a pretty big drop to this 2nd group, which starts around 50%. 

6. Elton Brand, 33

Quick 2012 wrap: Had his moments, but looks cooked. Surprisingly, his rebounding rate and block rate were up over the previous year.

Contract: One more year at $18.2 million.

Verdict: Lots of people are yelling to use the amnesty clause on Elton. But I would make sure to ask: for what? To give Kris Humphries $10 million a year? I certainly hope not. Looking at this weak FA class, the Sixers might do better to hang onto Brand and try to trade his contract during the season and wait for the much better 2013-14 FA class. Unless there is a trade that requires we take on some money, I say keep Brand, and limit his minutes even more than before and see if he can be effective in spurts.

7. Andre Iguodala, 28

Quick 2012 wrap: Continued to have less of an impact in the scoring column, but was an all-league defender (despite what the voting may have said) and provided one of the biggest surprises of the year in becoming an excellent 3P shooter (39.4%).

Contract: Set to make $14.7 million next year, and has a $15.9 million player option for 2013-14.

Verdict: I like more about Iguodala than I don’t. People think he needs to score more to justify his contract, but don’t understand that allowing an opposing player to score 10 points less is the same as averaging 10 points more. His contested fade-away jumpers are the 2nd most frustrating thing to watch on the floor for this team. But his transition game, defense, and passing ability make him a valuable player. However,  I’d be open to trading him to fill a need on the scoring end or get a promising, young, cheap player. I feel like in order to see what we really have in Evan Turner, we need to let Dre go. But at his age, and with his talent, I wouldn’t mess around with Monta Ellis-level garbage in return. Will try to brain-storm trade options as I write.

8. Jodie Meeks, 25

Quick 2012 wrap: Not as good as 2011. Points down and his 3p% dropped from 39.7% to 36.5%. Might not seem like much, but when you are up near 40% – that’s a legit NBA skill. When you drop to 36%, you are in a big pack and Meeks doesn’t do enough else.

Contract: A free-agent

Verdict: I’d be OK with bringing him back on a short-term, small deal. I like 3-pt shooters, and wouldn’t mind keeping him on the bench. Haven’t heard much on him.

9. Lou Williams, 26

Quick 2012 wrap: Led the team in scoring coming off the bench and also improved on his 3P% with a career high 36.2%. Is maddening down the stretch as he predictably heaves contested shots in the final minutes of quarters (The most frustrating thing for me to watch on this team). Can’t play defense worth a lick. Very streaky offensive player, but can get to the line better than any Sixers’ player.

Contract: Player option for $6.4 million.

Verdict: I’m personally ready to see Lou walk. Among players with 1,500 shots over the last 2 seasons, he has the 3rd worst FG% at 40.6%. He doesn’t play defense and while he carries us on offense from time-to-time, it’s not consistent enough to see him stick around. I’d rather his shots go to Jrue and ET. Hopefully he opts out and gets a deal from another team.

10. Spencer Hawes, 24

Quick 2012 wrap: Was pretty darn good to start the year, then not-so-darn good later on, then pretty bad in the playoffs. His first 6 games of the year he put up 13.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.1 blocks per game while shooting 65% from the field. The 23-year-old looked on his way to a breakout year. Then, a couple injuries and fall back to earth later, he averaged 9.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.2 blocks on 43.2% shooting in his last 18 games and was basically replaced by Lavoy Allen in the Boston series.

Contract: A free-agent

Verdict: We have someone who can duplicate his offensive skill in Nik Vucevic, and desperately need a defensive presence in the middle. Let him walk.

Kiss ‘em Goodbye: Tony Battie, Andres Nocioni, Craig Brackins, Sam Young

So – if I’m the GM, here is what I am doing this off-season…

1. Evaluate the trade value of every single player on the roster
2. Call Orlando and see what Dwight Howard would cost (Dre, Turner, Thad, #1?) – then realize he’s kind of a baby and you don’t want him anyway
3. See if Eric Gordon has any chance of leaving New Orleans.
4. Look to trade Dre for one of the following players: Rudy Gay, Paul Milsap, Pau Gasol, James Harden
5. Let Lou and Spencer walk
6. Target a scorer or a defensive inside presence at #15
7. Send Evan Turner back to Herb Magee
8. Don’t spend a ton on free agents that aren’t EG
9. Study what exactly San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Houston do in evaluating players

It’s tough to say what exactly the Sixers should do, but the jist of it for me is keep the top 5 on the list of players above and work your tail off trying to turn the rest into something that could give this team a big step forward. And if you can’t? Don’t force anything and try again next year when Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Paul Milsap, Al Jefferson, Dwight Howard, James Harden, Andrew Bynum, Ty Lawson and Taj Gibson are all potentially out there.

The Sixers have our attention. They have a chance to win the city back. Let’s see what they do with it.

For the complete list and explanation of criteria and scoring, check out the Philly Fifty page

Longevity – 4

Gola is one of a couple athletes on here who had stints in Philly with multiple teams. Gola spent 10 years playing in Philly, 4 with LaSalle (’51-’54) and 6 with the Warriors (’55-’61).

Peak – 4

In the college game, Gola was arguably the best player in the country over a period of several years. In 1953-54,  he led LaSalle to the title game and won the Final Four’s most outstanding player. In 1955 he was the UPI Player of the Year. In the NBA, he was a high level all-star, best suited as the 2nd or 3rd best option on a championship caliber team.

Popularity – 2

Big-5 fans and older fans will likely know Gola, but I’d wager many casual fans couldn’t tell you who he is. He does have a court named after him at LaSalle though.

Team Success – 5

Let’s start with LaSalle. In his 4 seasons, the Explorers went 98-22. They won the NIT tournament in 1952 and then the NCAA title in 1955. In addition to bringing an NCAA title to the city, Gola was a vital cog in bringing an NBA championship as well when the Warriors won it all in all in 1956. So in the span of two seasons he won an NCAA and NBA title in the same city. I wonder if that has been done before or since… During his full stint with the Warriors, they went 295-227 and also made the Finals in 1959.

Awards – 4

Once again we’ll start with college, where Gola was a first-team AA for three straight seasons. The year LaSalle won it all he swept the awards, winning National POY and tournament POY. He was a little less decorated in the NBA, but still went to 5 all-star games, and was named 2nd-team all NBA once.

Stats – 4

Gola holds one big college record that has stood since he graduated and will probably stand for a long, long time. 2,201 rebounds. The closest anyone has got recently is Kenneth Faried, who is 12th all time, and only stands at 1,673, and played in 18 fewer games. For his career, Gola averaged 18.6 boards per game. He wasn’t a one-trick pony though, averaging 20.9 points per game as well.

In the NBA, he didn’t fill the stat sheet quite as much, but was a very solid contributor. He averaged a double-double in 3 of his first 4 seasons while also dishing out 4-5 assists and playing great defense. For his career in Philly (400 games) he averaged 13.6 points, 10.1 rebounds and 5 assists per game.

Historical Standing – 3

Gola is in the Naismith HOF primary for his college accomplishments.

Excitement – 2

Gola was a guy you absolutely wanted on your team, but rebounding and defense isn’t always sexy.

Total: 28

For the complete list and explanation of criteria and scoring, check out the Philly Fifty page

Without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the offense has been inconsistent (yet, still 7th in the NL in R/G).

The starters, for the most part, have been excellent, with a combined 2.90 ERA in 260.2 IP.

The bullpen, which was a question mark after Papelbon, has been flat out bad. With non-Papelbon relievers sporting a whopping 5.97 ERA with 8 losses. For all the focus on the offense, it’s the bullpen that has us where we are today.

Since I’ve not posted on the Phillies since the season started, I’m going to do a full rundown of the team, ranked by WAR, and any comments I have on the player…

1. Carlos Ruiz, C, 1.9 WAR

Ruiz has been MVP-worthy through the first quarter of the year. There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the way he is playing. His 1.024 OPS is outrageous, his 7 HR are already 2 away from a career high and the only players in the NL with higher WAR’s at the moment are David Wright, Joey Votto and Michael Bourn. Truly an amazing start.

2. Cole Hamels, SP, 1.6 WAR

He’s going to get some contract, huh? Despite our hitting problems, I would still give him a 6 year, $120 million deal. He would be younger than Roy Halladay is now at the end of that deal and his left-handed-ness and incredible change-up give him a great chance of being elite for several more years. I will be devastated if we don’t re-sign him while watching Howard earn $25 million and Papelbon earn $13 million.

3. Cliff Lee, SP, 1.5 WAR

Would be higher if he hadn’t missed a couple stars. 1.95 ERA and 0.76 WHIP and 0 wins. It’s almost like that is a dumb statistic.

4. Roy Halladay, SP, 1.1 WAR

Thus far, he’s still a top-10 pitcher in the league, but it looks like he may have taken a step back from his “best” in the league title. Velocity is a little down, as is his K/9 rate, but he has enough movement to overcome that. Still on pace for 250+ innings.

5. Juan Pierre, OF, 0.9 WAR

Not going to lie. I wanted no part of Juan Pierre in the starting line-up. He’s a singles hitter who gets thrown out on the base-paths a ton and has the worst outfield arm in baseball. All that being said, if he hits .343 the whole year and gets on-base almost 40% of the time, that doesn’t matter. Considering he’s had one season over .300 in the last 7 years, and that was .308, I think he’s due for a fall back to earth at some point.

6. Joe Blanton, SP, 0.7 WAR

Somebody wants a contract, huh? I thought Blanton could return to form this year, but “form” was a 4.20 ERA, not sub-3. Blanton is walking less hitters and giving up fewer HR’s than he has in his entire career. Hopefully he can keep it up. You wonder if he could be moved for a bat at some point this season.

7. Vance Worley, SP, 0.7 WAR

The most pleasant surprise of the year for me. His 45 K’s in 44 IP are amazing to me. He was never a strike out guy in the minors, but seems to have perfected the backwards K. Hopefully his arm soreness isn’t serious.

8. Placido Polanco, 3B, 0.5 WAR

This  number is helped by his still-excellent defense and his .347 BA in his last 19 games.

9. Antonio Bastardo, RP, 0.5 WAR

Not throwing as hard or well as last year, but still sporting a 1.50 ERA and 10.5 K/9.

10. Shane Victorino, OF, 0.5 WAR

Very disappointing with the bat so far, but I think he will pull it together. Love the 12 early steals though.

11. Laynce Nix, OF, 0.4 WAR

Our hottest hitter when he went down. Has a .979 OPS on the season.

12. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, 0.4 WAR

Overpaid or not, he’s done his job. 18 K’s in 15.1 IP despite a noticeable drop in velocity from last year.

13. Brian Schneider, C, 0.1 WAR

Getting into the “don’t play that much, so we’ll be around 0.0″ group here.

14. Hector Luna, Util, 0.1 WAR

Spring training hero hit a grand slam in his first Phillies AB.

15. Mike Fontenot, Util 0.1 WAR

He’s 2 for 3. He’s still not very good, sorry…

16. Raul Valdes, RP, 0.0 WAR

Showed off his 88mph heater, but still struck out 2 in his one appearance. I don’t see him as a bullpen answer.

17. Hunter Pence, OF, 0.0 WAR

History told us Pence would come down to earth a little, but maybe not THIS much. He’s gotten some clutch hits, but his fielding has been horrendous and his OBP hovering around .300. The Phillies might have an interesting decision with him next year as he could make upwards of $12 million in arbitration.

18. David Herndon, RP, 0.0 WAR

Did his thing where he gives up a ton of hits, then got hurt.

19. Pete Orr, Util, -0.1 WAR

Getting into worse-than-replacement territory here. And Pete Orr more-or-less defines “replacement player.”

20. Freddy Galvis, 2B, -0.1 WAR

A defensive prodigy, Galvis really needs to only hit about .250 to be valuable. Right now he’s hitting .233 with a .270 OBP, but has delivered some timely hits. Watching his glove has been one of the highlights of the season for me.

21. Chad Qualls, RP, -0.1 WAR

Looked great early on, then fell off a cliff. I feel like his arm is in decent shape, but his location is not. I think he’s fixable, but right now it’s looks like Bastardo is back in the 8th and we could really use someone to step up in the 7th.

22. Erik Kratz, C, -0.1 WAR

0-3.

23. Jim Thome, 1B, -0.1 WAR

Big time disappointment before going down with injury. Looks done, but I’m not counting him out yet. Just give me ONE more HR in a Phillies’ uni!

24. Joe Savery, RP, -0.1 WAR

Gotten hurt by the HR. A 1.00 WHIP in 8 IP, but 2 HR given up. Doesn’t seem to throw quite hard enough or have quite enough movement on pitches to be successful. I’m not completely writing him off though.

25. John Mayberry, OF, -0.2 WAR

Sorry, but I was expecting this one. Thousands of minor league ABs said last year was a fluke, and it certainly looks that way. His .574 OPS is the worst on the team among qualified hitters.

26. Brian Sanches, RP, -0.3 WAR

Part of the parade of mediocre relievers that had Twitter losing it’s mind. Allowed 11 base-runners in 4 innings. Hopefully we’ve seen the last of him this year.

27. Michael Stutes, RP, -0.3 WAR

Was he just another flash in the pan last year? Could his arm only handle one MLB season? 11 base-runners in 5.2 IP before injury.

28. Ty Wigginton, 3B, -0.4 WAR

On his bat alone, he be up a little bit, but his advanced defensive metrics aren’t very friendly. 2nd worst on the team to Pence.

29. Mike Schwimer, RP, -0.4 WAR

Despite his great minor league numbers, he has not looked good in the majors. I feel like if he settled in, he would improve, but I’m not sure he will get that chance.

30. Jimmy Rollins, SS, -0.5 WAR

Not looking good Jimmy. Both hitting and fielding metrics are down. He’s really got to get on a hot streak. I think he will, but the question is whether he reverts back this after it’s over. Should probably be hitting 7th right now.

31. Jake Diekman, RP, -0.5 WAR

OMG DIEKMAN IS AWESOME! OMG HE ACTUALLY SUCKS! If this kid can ever learn to locate, he could be great. That’s a big IF though.

32. Jose Contreras, RP, -0.6 WAR

Seems done. 8 ER in 9 IP so far this year.

33. Kyle Kendrick, P, -0.7 WAR

He’s been as bad as the other pitchers, the only difference is that he’s been allowed to pitch 25.2 innings so far. Hopefully his last start will get him on track, but prior to that he’d given up 31 hits in 19.2 innings. It’s hard to explain how bad that is.

So there it is, the 33 players the Phillies have thrown out there. Let’s group it up a little bit…

Starting Pitching: 5.3 WAR
Relief Pitching: -2.1 WAR
Hitting: 3.1 WAR
Fielding: -0.2 WAR

Total: 6.1 WAR

So, essentially, without our starting pitching, we’d be in the neighborhood of 15-24.

With average relievers, we’d be in the neighborhood of 22-17.

I still think the Phillies are in good shape. The bats have lit up a little bit and I expect Rollins, Victorino and Pence to all hit a little better as we move forward. I think Utley and Howard will provide at least some upgrade when they return and I think someone in the bullpen will step up behind Paps and Bastardo.

Right now, my real concern is the future. Our farm system has exactly zero MLB ready position prospects, and it’s simply not possible to fill a championship roster with all large contracts. You need guys in those first 1-5 years of their MLB career’s to fill in the gaps, and that is looking like a problem right now. The hope is that Domonic Brown would be one of those guys, and I still think he can be, but he just can’t stay healthy. I’m not sure what the answer is for 2013 and beyond, but the Phils need to figure it out sooner rather than later. 

The Eagles hold the 15th pick in tonight’s NFL draft.

Almost everything, except the top-2 picks, is in play, and the Birds have stated, as they always do, that they will go with the best player available on their board.

Well, this is how I think their board should look, based on player talent and team needs. Hopefully they get someone in my top 15…

1. Robert Griffin III, QB – Yes, he’s not in play, and yes, Luck is atop most draft boards, but I think the Eagles would be one of the teams with RGIII ahead. Griffin seems to be the dream QB for Andy Reid’s system: A Michael Vick type athlete with great accuracy on his throws. I think the rumors that the Eagles looked into the #2 pick were 100% true.

2. Andrew Luck, QB – Should be a great QB, but in the games I saw him play, I didn’t see Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, etc…

3. Trent Richardson, RB – Yes, we have Shady, but Richardson is arguably the most talented player in the draft.

4. Luke Kuechly, LB – This is where need comes into play. I think Kuechly would be such a tremendous upgrade in our LB core that he’s worth reaching for. He’s my dream pick for this draft.

5. Morris Claiborne, CB – Appears to be the best CB in the draft, though some would say Stephon Gilmore is a better fit for our defense. With Asante gone and DRC in final year of deal, CB has become a need.

6. Fletcher Cox, DT – Would help greatly on run defense and with the pass rush. Many say he is our #1 target in the draft.

7. Stephon Gilmore, CB – Strikes me a very safe pick. Could allow us to let DRC walk and use money elsewhere.

8. Justin Blackmon, WR – We don’t have a huge need at WR, but we do have a need in the Red Zone. If he were to drop, he’d still be a great value, and it would be hard not to get crazy excited about the Jackson, Maclin, Blackmon trio.

9. Michael Floyd, WR – Just as good as Blackmon, IMO. Red Zone threat, and an excellent blocker in the run and pass game.

10. Matt Kalil, OT – Don’t want a offensive lineman but once again, you can’t take a talent this big off your board because he doesn’t fill a direct need.

11. Dont’a Hightower, LB – Ranked this high because I really, really want a LB.

12. Mark Barron, S – We’ve spent so many 2nd rounders on safeties recently that I’d be hesitant to use another high pick (esp. with the jury still out on Allen and Jarrett), but Barron is the only potentially great safety and it’s still a need.

13. Michael Brockers, DT – A massive DT prospect who is a step behind Cox

14. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB – Would be perfectly happy with the Birds sticking at 15 and grabbing Dre.

To me, ironically since it’s right before the Eagles pick, there is a drop-off here. I would very much prefer the Eagles end up with one of the 14 players listed above. If they stay at 15, one will most certainly be available. 

15. Chandler Jones, DE – A high upside DE who has also been productive in college.

16. Dontari Poe, DT – Combine freak who came up small on game tape. Could Eagles motivate him to tap into his full potential?

17. Melvin Ingram, DE – Seems like more of a 3/4 OLB/DE type, but could still be a player in 4/3

18. Courtney Upshaw, OLB – Linebacker!

19. Janoris Jenkins, CB – Would be interesting to see the Eagles trade down and get Jenkins, a top-5 talent but potential personality problem. They passed on Jimmy Smith for similar reasons last year, and he’s looking pretty good in Baltimore.

Anyone below this line, I would be annoyed if we drafted in the first round without trading down and picking up substantial picks

20. Whitney Mercilus, DE – One year wonder in college, but it was quite a year.

21. Lavonte David, LB – Probably a 2nd round target, but LINEBACKER!

22. Quinton Coples, DE – High upside, low motivation.

23. Jerel Worthy, DT – Solid, not spectacular DT

24. Kendall Wright, WR – First offensive player on here since Kalil. Can you tell how I think the Birds should draft?

25. Ryan Tannehill, QB – If they think he can really be a great QB, we do need a back-up to Vick.

The rest I will just list, with comments if I feel necessary…

26. Shea McClellin, LB
27. Andre Branch, DE
28. Riley Reiff, OT
29. Brandon Weeden, QB – I would like to see the Birds grab him in the 2nd. Can come in and be a quality back-up right away. And back-up for the Eagles means starting at least 7 games.
30. Alameda Ta’amu, DT
31. Stephen Hill, WR
32. David DeCastro, OG
33. Vinny Curry, DE
34. Jonathan Martin, OT
35. Harrison Smith, S – As someone who has watched every game of his career, I don’t think he’s a 1st round talent…
36.  Mike Adams, OT
37. Alshon Jeffrey, WR
38. Bobbie Massie, OT
39. Coby Fleener, TE
40.  Casey Hayward, CB

So, based on this, here are the scenarios as I see them:

A+: Stick at 15 and get someone like Cox, Barron and Kuechly dropping while keeping our 2 2nd rounders
A: Stick at 15 and get someone in my top-14 while keeping our 2 2nd rounders
B+: Trading down and getting someone in my top-19 while getting other picks
B+: Trading up to get someone in my top-14 w/o sacrificing 2 2nd rounders
B: Trading up to get someone in my top-14, but giving up significant picks to do so
C-F: Basically anything else…

So what do you guys and gals think? What should the Eagles plan be tonight?

The Eagles have had tons of scapegoats over the years. Reid and Donovan McNabb have obviously been the most popular, Juan Castillo the most recent and it probably won’t be long before it’s Michael Vick either for his inability to stay on the field or his inability to be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.

But to me, the reason the Eagles haven’t found themselves hoisting the Lombardi trophy in February has been very, very simple.

The Eagles are completely incapable of drafting, and developing, young defensive players.

Since 2003 (9 drafts) the Eagles have drafted 44 defensive players. Only 1 (Trent Cole) has made a Pro Bowl. Even worse, only 3 others (Patterson, Bunkley, Gocong) spent more than 2 seasons a full-time starter. Think about that. In 9 drafts, only 4 defensive players have become long-term starters and two of them (Bunkley and Gocong) were unceremoniously dumped.

There has not been a similar problem on the offensive side of the ball, and that’s the only thing that has kept us going these last couple years. DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, LeSean McCoy, Brent Celek, Todd Herremens, Kevin Kolb, potentially Jason Kelce and Danny Watkins – all above average starters or even stars drafted by the Eagles and their scouting department.

So why can’t we draft defensive talent? Let’s take a look, by round, at the Eagles’ defensive draft picks over the last 9 drafts. And try not to think about Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyura (all Giants’ draft picks in the last 9 years) taking down Tom Brady (again) and lifting the Lombardi.

Before we get into it – here are my basic expectations for players based on round picked…

1st round: Above average starter to pro bowler
2nd-3rd round: Starter to above average starter
4th-5th round: Rotation player to starter
6th-7th round: Practice squad to rotation player

First Round

Pick 13 (2010): Brandon Graham, DE – The highest defensive player drafted by the Eagles since Corey Simon in 2000. So far – injured and undersized. 16 games, 3 sacks in 2 years. Drafted ahead of Earl Thomas and Jason Pierre-Paul.

Pick 14 (2006): Broderick Bunkley, DT – Showed flashes and spent 4 years as a starter. Probably only had one season as an above average starter.

Pick 15 (2003): Jerome MacDougle, DE – Bust. Hardly a rotation player. Drafted one spot ahead of Troy Polamalu.

Pick 31 (2005): Mike Patterson, DT – Solid to above average starter for 6 seasons now. The only 1st round defensive pick to meet expectations.

Summary: One meets expectations, one doesn’t suck, the other two are busts w/ Graham still having some time to prove that wrong

Second Round

Pick 37 (2010): Nate Allen, S – Seemed on his way to meeting expectations before injury shortened his rookie season. Didn’t regain form in 2011, but isn’t a lost cause. Not being a “lost cause” makes him one of the better player on this list

Pick 42 (2008): Trevor Laws, DT -  Never was more than a rotational player. Only one good season. Signed with the Rams this off-season.

Pick 54 (2011): Jaiquawn Jarrett, S – Picked 2 rounds too early because they thought he was game-ready. He wasn’t.

Pick 57 (2009): Victor Abiamiri, DE – Drafted too high to begin with. Was never healthy. Will likely never be healthy.

Pick 63 (2005): Matt McCoy, LB – Laughably bad pick, 83 career tackles. Projected as an undrafted free agent by SI prior to draft.

Summary: Two busts, two rotation guys, and one TBD with little promise. Nate Allen was the only player who wasn’t considered a “reach” of some kind. 

Third Round

Pick 71 (2006): Chris Gocong, LB – A solid pick for a 3rd rounder. Started 3 seasons for the Eagles before being traded to the Browns where he’s had his two best seasons and got a contract extension. He will not be the last on the list to improve after leaving.

Pick 80 (2008): Bryan Smith, LB – The only explanation I have for this pick is that there was no one they wanted here, couldn’t trade the pick and wanted to draft someone they knew sucked and wouldn’t make the team. Like McCoy, SI had him as an undrafted FA.

Pick 86 (2010): Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, DE – Another laughable pick, DTN could have probably been had in the 6th round. 2 career tackles before his predictable release.

Pick 87 (2007): Stewart Bradley, LB – Quality starter for a couple years before injuries took him down. Decent value in 3rd round.

Pick 89 (2004): Matt Ware, CB – Two years on the team as a special teams player.

Summary: Two decent picks, two mind-bogglingly horrible picks, one bust

Fourth Round

Pick 102 (2005): Sean Considine, S – Made 17 starts for the Eagles, but never better than an average starter.

Pick 105 (2010): Trevard Lindley, CB – Coming off injury when drafted, something that usually doesn’t turn out well. Will have to see if he gets in the mix in 2012, but seemed to be buried.

Pick 116 (2011): Casey Matthews, LB – Unlikely to ever be more than rotation player unless he borrows his brother’s PEDs.

Pick 117 (2008): Quintin Demps, S – 25 games in two seasons, never started. Rotation player for the Texans last year, who re-signed him.

Pick 121 (2010): Keenan Clayton, LB – Another reach, Clayton has gotten some rotation play and one start in the horrible Eagles’ LB core.

Pick 129 (2004): J.R. Reed, DB – Drafted as a KR. Wasn’t very good.

Pick 131 (2003): Jamaal Green, DE – Played 8 games. The write-ups are going to start getting a lot shorter from here on out.

Pick 131 (2008): Jack Ikegwuonu, CB – Another injured player. Didn’t work out. At all. 1 game played.

Summary: Only one starter out of this bunch, and not a particularly good one. 

Fifth Round

Pick 134 (2010): Ricky Sapp, DE/LB – Another injured player who did nothing.

Pick 146 (2005): Trent Cole, DE – God bless you Trent.

Pick 157 (2009): Macho Harris, DB – Started a couple games because there were no better options. Didn’t even make it to his 2nd season with the team.

Pick 159 (2007): C.J. Gaddis, DB – Don’t believe he ever made the team. Certainly never played.

Pick 168 (2006): Omar Gaither, LB – Good value down here. Made 36 starts for the Eagles. Average starter.

Summary: One gem, one starter, and three non-players

Note: For 6th and 7th round, I will only comment on players who did something, as you don’t really expect these guys to have an impact (though for the Eagles, they often do…)

Sixth Round

Pick 192 (2004): Dexter Wynn, DB
Pick 193 (2011): Brian Rolle, LB – Undersized, but looks like a decent rotational LB.
Pick 200 (2008): Joe Mays, LB – Released by Eagles, started 13 games for the excellent Denver defense this year
Pick 201 (2007): Rashad Barksdale, DB
Pick 203 (2008): Andy Studebaker, LB
Pick 204 (2006): LaJuan Ramsey, DT

Summary: Rolle could be a nice find

Seventh Round

Pick 220 (2010): Jamar Chaney, LB – Potential starter, but was disappointing (misused?) last season. 
Pick 230 (2009): Moise Fokou, LB - Has made 22 starts, another good value down here.
Pick 237 (2011): Greg Lloyd, LB
Pick 243 (2010): Jeff Owens, DT
Pick 244 (2010): Kurt Coleman, S – Like others on this list, made some starts, but only because there were no better options. I personally don’t get why people think he’s good…
Pick 244 (2003): Norman LeJeune, DB
Pick 247 (2005): Kenyonta Marshall, DT
Pick 252 (2005): David Bergeron, LB 

Summary: Sadly, this is probably their most effective round based on expectations

So how does this happen? How does a team that is so good at drafting offensive players become so bad at drafting defensive players? Based on what I’m seeing above, here are a couple theories.

1. They whiff on the early picks

It’s not a huge failure to not draft great players past the 2nd round, but it doesn’t help when you aren’t getting much before that. When you look at the 9 players the Eagles picked in the first 2 rounds, the only one you would re-draft is Mike Patterson. Take a look at the defensive picks in the same round/ time period (in the years leading up to their SB wins) for the teams that have won Super Bowls recently and it tells a different story…

NY Giants: Jason Pierre-Paul (1-2010), Linval Joseph (2-2010), Kenny Phillips (1-2008), Terrell Thomas (2-2008), Aaron Ross (1-2007), Mathias Kiwanuka (1-2006), Corey Webster (2-2005), Osi Umenyura (2-2003)
Green Bay: BJ Raji (1-2009), Clay Matthews (1-2009), AJ Hawk (1-2006), Nick Collins (2-2005), Nick Barnett (1-2003)
New Orleans: Malcolm Jenkins (1-2009), Sedrick Ellis (1-2008), Tracy Porter (2-2008), Roman Harper (2-2006), Will Smith (1-2004), Charles Grant (1-2002)
Pittsburgh: Lawrence Timmons (1-2007), LaMar Woodley (2-2007), Bryant McFadden (2-2005), Troy Polamalu (1-2003), Casey Hampton (1-2001)

Do any of those lists look anything like our 9 guys we’ve gotten?  Even the offensive-minded teams like New Orleans had their defense stocked with quality recent high-draft picks on the defensive side.

2. They concentrate too much on “scheme”

You will hear them say this a lot – most recently in regard to the decision to pick Brandon Graham over Jason Pierre-Paul. Picking based on “scheme” would be great if you had a great “scheme” to begin with. We aren’t the Steelers. We aren’t the Ravens. If a player as talented as JPP doesn’t fit your “scheme” – it’s time to re-evaluate your scheme.

3. They tend to draft undersized players with “high motors”

A running joke – but a true one. Motor only gets your so far in the NFL and the Eagles overdraft players based on it. Graham, Laws, Te’o-Nesheim all come to mind.

4. They don’t pay attention to the perceived value of a player

This just means that they might pick someone in the 2nd or 3rd round that it seems very likely would be available in the 4th or 5th. And a lot of the 2nd and 3rd round picks fall into this category.

5. They have bad defensive scouts

Really – this has to be the main reason, right? I guess it plays into #1 on this list as well. Andy Reid is probably confident with the picks on the offensive side of the ball, but he’s no defensive coach. Who is in charge of defensive scouting for the draft? And whoever it is, can it be somebody else please?

6. They don’t learn from mistakes

We see the same thing over and over from the Eagles, making mistakes 2/3/4 on this list and not adjusting. Once they do (and history shows they are stubborn people – but the did finally get us some WR’s, no?) we might start to see an improvement.

So, with the 15th, 46th and 51st picks in this year’s draft, can the Eagles reverse this trend? If Andy Reid wants to finally bring a Lombardi Trophy to Philadelphia, he better hope so.

OK – so obviously new jobs/responsibilities/life events have killed off Dannie (blog-speaking) and have severely limited me. But the reason for this blog was never to make money, it was as a creative outlet for reasonable sports discourse, and the start of baseball season still gets me very fired-up and in need of that outlet…

I only got to one part of my Phillies preview, the now-doomed infield. So I’ll summarize that here and shoot through the rest of the team, based on how I think they will perform compared to 2011.

In-fact, let’s just shoot through the 25-man roster…

C- Carlos Ruiz: No reason to expect much different output from last year. Even.
1B- Ty Wigginton: Who knows how long Ryan Howard will be out and it’s not the Achillies will have him back at 100% when he gets there. But I do think he will be back this year. Minus 1 win (factors in that Howard will return). 
2B- Freddy Galvis: Think Rey Ordonez. Wizard with the glove, should probably be hitting behind the pitcher with the bat. I don’t expect Utley back until June at the earliest. Minus 2.5 wins (factors in that Utley will return).
3B – Placido Polanco: Has actually looked good in spring training. If he can stay healthy, he could improve on his 1.8 WAR from last year, but I would never, ever, bet on him staying healthy. Even.
SS – Jimmy Rollins: Played a little above his average last year at 3.7 WAR. I’m going to drop him down just a tad. Minus 0.7 wins.
RF – Hunter Pence: Pence’s WAR last year between Houston and Philly was 5.2. His previous high was 3.3 (his rookie year) and the prior two seasons he averaged a measly 1.5. So where do we put him in 2012? I think that he does have the ability to be closer to the 5.2 than the 1.5, but I don’t think he’ll be quite as good again, primarily because of his very high BABIP last year. I’ll put him at 4 for now. He had a 2.5 of his WAR with the Phils last year, so by being here the whole year, he’ll be plus 1.5 wins.
CF – Shane Victorino: Vic had a 5.0 WAR last year, his best of his career. His prior 3 years were 3.5, 2.4 and 3.7. I’ll put him ahead of those, but don’t think he’ll match last year. Minus 1 win.
LF – Juan Pierre: Wait, what? I could write a long diatribe about why I think Juan Pierre shouldn’t be anywhere near our starting line-up, especially over Scott Podsednik, Domonic Brown and John Mayberry, but I’ll save time for now. Pierre was exactly a replacement player last year (0.0 WAR) and averaged 0.7 WAR per season over the prior 4.  I highly, highly doubt he’ll be the starting LF for the entire season, and I also highly doubt he’ll be any good (would be thrilled to be wrong). However, the bright side is our starting LF last year, Raul Ibanez, was worse than a replacement player (-0.4 WAR) so anything from LF is a positive. Plus 0.5 wins. 

Overall line-up vs. 2011: Minus 3.2 wins

SP1 – Roy Halladay: Had a little velocity “scare” in the spring, but it’s unlikely he’s about to fall apart. His 7.4 WAR last year was the 2nd best of his career, and I don’t expect him to be quite that good this year. Minus 0.5 wins
SP2 – Cliff Lee: Also notched the 2nd best WAR of his career and I also expect a slightly “worse” year this season. Minus 0.5 wins.
SP3 – Cole Hamels:  Pitching for a massive contract, 28 years old, and coming off his career year. I expect him to be very, very good. Plus 0.6 wins.
SP4- Vance Worley: Sorry, I’m selling on Vance. His  stuff and minor league numbers tell me he’s not nearly as good as showed last year. He’ll be serviceable, but not near his 2.8 WAR. Minus 1.8 wins.
SP5 – Joe Blanton: Has looked good in spring, and is pitching for another contract. However, for the purposes of this, he’s being compared to Roy Oswalt and his 1.7 WAR. I expect Blanton to be in that range. Even. 

Overall rotation vs. 2011: Minus 2.2 wins

CL – Jonathan Papelbon: Madson had a 2.2 WAR last year and Papelbon 2.0. I do think Paps will pitch well, but Madson was really, really good last year. Even.
SU – Antonio Bastardo: I think his stuff is nasty enough to repeat his 2011 campaign. And it seems like his spring troubles have been resolved. Even.
The Rest – This is a little difficult because so many guys filter through the bullpen each year. Last year, aside from Bastardo and Madson, the Phillies bullpen (Contreras, Stutes, Lidge, Herndon, Romero, Mathieson, Perez, De Fratus, Zagurski, Schwimer, Baez and Carpenter) had a 1.2 WAR, brought down considerably by Danys Baez and his -0.9 mark. This year, you are looking at Qualls (0.5), Herndon (0.3), Stutes (0.0), Contreras (0.0), Kendrick (0.5) and then a mix of Joe Savery and the minor league brigade. When the dust settles, it’s likely the bullpen will be very similar in terms of production to last season. Even. 

Overall bullpen vs. 2011: Even

C – Brian Schneider: -0.9 WAR last year, and not getting better. Even.
1B – Jim Thome: A potential big upgrade (as bench players go) over Ross Gload (-0.3 WAR last year). Plus 0.5 wins.
Inf – Hector Luna: The darling of the spring – I’m hopeful he gets the spot over Pete Orr. Would be an upgrade over Mini-Mart, but playing time limits the impact. Plus 0.2 wins.
OF – John Mayberry: Even though he had a lot of starts last year, I still need to compare him to himself. His 2.5 WAR was an aberration, in my opinion (based on his stats from 3,000+ minor league ABs), and I don’t expect him to be the next Jayson Werth. Still a very solid 4th OF. Minus 1.5 wins.
OF – Laynce Nix: All he has to do is beat Ben Francisco’s horrible -0.9 WAR to be considered an upgrade here. Sadly, I think Nix is horrible as well (2 years, really?), but will still be a modest upgrade. Plus 0.5 wins. 

Overall bench vs. 2011: Minus 0.3 wins. 

So, all of these put together gives us a total of the Phillies being just about 5.7 wins worse than 2011 based solely on our own personnel. Our expected W/L record in 2011 based on runs scored and allowed was 103-59 so that puts us at 97-65.

However, we obviously have to bring into play how our division changed. Our 38 games against the Marlins and Nats should be tougher than last year, while our 19 against the Mets should actually be easier (with the Braves staying the same). I’ll drop us 3 more wins for the increased difficulty in schedule, and put us at 94-68 on the season. That should be enough to win the division by a couple games, and would DEFINITELY be enough to make the stupid new playoff format. Vegas seems to be in line with this prediction, as they have the O/U for Phillies wins at 93.5. Utley and Howard not coming back at all might drop us into the 90-91 range, but that should still be good enough.

We’ll see how the season plays out. There are (obviously) always a lot of surprises, good and bad.

The Rest of the League

So how would the Phils 94 wins stack up against the rest of baseball? I did a similar (but quicker) process as I did above for the other 29 teams and this is how I see the year unfolding…

NL East

1. Phillies 94-68
2. Marlins 88-74 (wild card)
3. Braves 85-77
4. Nats 82-80
5. Mets 71-91

NL Central

1. Reds 88-74
2. Brewers 86-76 (stupid wild card)
3. Cardinals 83-79
4. Pirates 75-87
5. Cubs 69-93
6. Astros 67-95

NL West

1. Diamondbacks 89-73
2. Giants 83-79
3. Rockies  80-82
4. Dodgers 78-84
5. Padres 74-88

AL East

1. Yankees 95-67
2. Red Sox 91-71 (wild card)
3. Rays 89-73
4. Blue Jays 77-85
5. Orioles 73-89

AL Central

1. Tigers 89-73
2. Indians 80-82
3. Royals 74-88
4. Twins 72-90
5. White Sox 70-92

AL West

1. Angels 94-68
2. Rangers 90-72 (stupid wild card)
3. Mariners 74-88
4. A’s 70-92

Playoffs

Stupid wild card games: TEX over BOS, MIL over MIA

Division Series: PHI over MIL, ARI over CIN, NYY over TEX, LAA over DET

Championship Series: ARI over PHI, LAA over NYY

World Series: LAA over ARI

There really isn’t an NL team I love, which is also good news for the Phillies. I picked the Diamondbacks because I liked their additions of Cahill and Kubel and think that Justin Upton could make the leap to MVP this year. But I could make arguments for plenty of teams. As for the Angels, I think the Pujols acquisition overshadowed the fact that they now have the 2nd best “big-3″ to us in the majors with Weaver, Haren and Wilson. I think they will get enough offense around Pujols and will have similar year to the Phillies last year, though with more luck in the playoffs.

So that’s how I see things playing out, both for the Phillies and the rest of the league.

What are your predictions for 2012?