The summer has been pretty boring and uneventful on the Sixers front to this point.  Stefanski surprised us early with a nice little deal giving up a little toughness and heart albeit from a player that wouldn’t see much court time in Reggie Evans for Jason Kapono and his desperately needed shooting ability from deep.  Good job there.

I personally thought their draft was weak.  Not because they drafted Jrue but because they didn’t gain another pick to add a player of need who is young and cheap later in the draft.  There were plenty of shooting guards they could have given a chance especially since they had to know they were moving on without Andre Miller.  Jrue could end up being really good but not right away.  Hopefully he can contribute on the defensive end and be just average offensively so he can stay on the floor enough to develop his game.

The Sixers success this season is predicated on a lot of IFs.  With that said…

Where Do the Sixers Rank in the East Right Now?

Here are who I consider the top 9 teams in the Eastern Conference.  They are accompanied by the off-season moves, additions, subtractions they have made thus far.

1. Cleveland - Acquired Shaq, signed Anthony Parker
2. Boston - Signed Sheed, expected return of KG, up in the air – Glen Davis and Leon Powe, rumored commitment from Marquis Daniels to sign for the bi-annual exception
3. Orlando - Acquired Vince Carter, Ryan Anderson, signed Brandon Bass, rumored to be signing C.J. Watson, lost Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston
4. Atlanta - Drafted Jeff Teague, acquired Jamal Crawford, up in the air – Marvin Williams
5. Miami - Up in the air Jamario Moon, rumors – trade for Boozer, attempt to sign Odom
6. Philadelphia – Drafted Jrue Holiday, acquired Jason Kapono, expected return of Elton Brand and Jason Smith, lost Reggie Evans, expected loss of Andre Miller.
7. Chicago - Drafted James Johnson, lost Ben Gordon, signed Jannero Pargo, expected return of Luol Deng
8. Detroit - Drafted Austin Daye, lost AI, Sheed, McDyess, signed Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and Chris Wilcox
9. Toronto - Drafted Demar DeRozen, signed Hedo, acquired Reggie Evans, lost Anthony Parker, Shawn Marion

Take a good look at that.  Let it percolate for a bit.  Then lets talk about where the Sixers rank in the Eastern Conference in your opinion and more importantly why?

Related posts:

1. Catching Up on the Sixers Non-News
2. Louis Williams Signs a 5-year Deal to Stay with the Sixers
3. Sixers vs. Detroit: Game Loses Some Luster Without A.I. But Not Its Importance

I don’t have time to do a full-out post for this series, and I’m leaving tonight to go to Kansas City to check out the Royals on Saturday, and then the Cardinals in St. Louis on Sunday. But I thought I’d keep this up if people wanted to discuss. I will be able to chime in here and there in the comments while I am gone.

Just some bullet points of what I’m thinking about right now:

• This is a “run and hide” series now. Once we won that first game, making any though of the Marlins catching up go out the window, we now have to be in “bury them” mode. Winning 3 or 4 games while the Mets and Braves slug it out could give us the type of cushion we haven’t had in a long time.
• Howard the quickest (game-wise, not age-wise) to 200 HR… I might do a full post on this, but how many HR’s do you think he can hit in his career? He’ll be 30 after the season, I actually think 500 will be tough to get to. I’ll explore further.
• Tonight is a big start for Cole Hamels. Halladay shmalladay, it won’t matter if we get him if Hamels can’t right the ship. Also, if they think he needs an extra day rest before pitching again after the all-star break, why not just give him 3 and pitch him the last game against the Marlins?
• It’s too strange to see Pedro in a Phillies uniform. He seemed somewhat humbled in his press conference, and hopefully uses the chip on his shoulder to surprise a few people. I don’t think anyone, not even Pedro, has any idea what we will get from him.
• Who do you guys think the 2nd half surprises will be? After last night, it might just be Jamie Moyer. He must be the most hated pitcher in baseball among the Marlins 17 fans.
• My Red Sox over the Dodgers World Series prediction looks pretty good right now.  A lot better than my Tigers over Mets prediction in 2008.

Sorry so short, I spent the majority of my time this week on the prospects post.

Feel free to comment (or vent) as the series goes along.

Related posts:

1. Phils Enter Terrifying Series With The Marlins
2. Filet o’ Fish: Phils sweep Marlins
3. Phils split shortened series with Nats

1. Kyle Drabek, RHP

Drabek, in his first full season in the minors, has been a revelation. In the Futures Game during the all-star break, he showed the 95-96 mph fastball and killer curve that have made him one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues this year. He showed no signs of growing pains when he was promoted to AA-Reading and could be in the Phillies major league plans as soon as next year. Even though he is #1 on this list, we have to remember that he is just coming off major surgery and is no sure thing.

2. Michael Taylor, OF

I’ve already done a longer post on Michael Taylor, so I’ll just sum up his current ranks in Eastern League: 1st in Hits, 2nd in Runs, OPS and Total Bases 3rd in RBI, BA and SLG%, 4th in HR and OBP, 5th in Doubles and Stolen Bases, 6th in Triples. Couple his talent with his tremendous personality, and he’s easily my favorite Phillies prospect. Update: As I’m writing this, it seems he has been called up to AAA and will play his first game tonight (or yesterday, depending on when I finish this post)

3. Dominic Brown, OF

Dominic Brown, like Taylor, was at the top of the leaderboard in nearly every category before suffering a broken hand from which he is just now returning. On upside, Brown could be ranked slightly ahead of Taylor. He’s younger, more athletic, an exceptional fielder and has a better eye at the plate. He doesn’t quite have the production Taylor has, which is why he is slightly behind him. Comparisons for him have ranged from Daryl Strawberry without the attitude issues to a more energetic Bobby Abreu. I’ll take either.

4. Carlos Carrasco, RHP

How can someone who has been so disappointing be up here at #4? For starters, he’s still only 22 years old. He’s been a top prospect for so long that he seems older, but he’s only 9 months older than Drabek. 2nd, while his H/9 is horrible, his K/9 is very good for AAA, meaning that he definitely has the pure stuff to be a solid major league pitcher. Right now, it seems that problem is mental. Whether it is confidence, or the inability to shake off a big hit, he’s got some maturing to do. He seems like he might be a Gavin Floyd-type mentally, and it wouldn’t be bad to let him work it out in minors, unlike we did with Floyd.

5. Jason Knapp, RHP

Knapp is a long way from contributing, but word is he is close to untouchable because he throws about 98 mph and is still growing into his frame. Last I checked (a week or so ago), Knapp was leading all of the minor leagues in strikeouts. He has a lot to work on, including improving secondary pitches and overall command, but the sky is the limit for him. Personally, looking waaaay into the future, I could see him stepping into the closer role after Lidge’s contract is up. They will keep him as a starter in the minors, but I could see him being our Jon Papelbon. He was recently put on the DL, so I don’t know how much more we will see from him this year.

6. Lou Marson, C

Marson (who just turned 23) never really got into a rhythm this season. He started with a chance to make the team, then went to AAA, then got called up, then went back down, then got hurt. However, since returning from injury, he has been stellar. Since June 1, he has hit .353 with a .418 OBP and .818 OPS. He’s still lacking for power, but could be valuable as a #2 hitter who gets on base in front of our big guys. I still expect him to be our opening day starter next year.

7. Jason Donald, SS/3B

Donald is here for what he has done in the past, not this year. He was horrible at the start of the season, but was apparently hurt, and is just now coming off the DL. We will see if his dip in production was due to the injury, or something else. I imagine he will be involved in a trade, for Halladay or a lesser starter, as he is blocked by Rollins, and would likely have below average production for the third-baseman.

8. Joe Savery, LHP

One of the most pleasant surprises on this list for me, I was about to consider Savery a “non-prospect” before he went on a long-term tear, ending with him being named the starting pitcher in the Eastern League all-star game. Savery hasn’t been spectacular, but he has been a quality start machine, only getting hit hard a couple times all year. I would need to see him in person to move him up, regardless of numbers, because I’ve read that he doesn’t have a great fastball and gets by on secondary stuff, which likely won’t fly in the majors.

9. Antonio Bastardo, LHP

We all saw what Bastardo can do in his brief call-up this year, but we also saw what he needs to work on. He has a great fastball, but needs to work on locating it, and also on his secondary pitches. I think he can be a good starter in the majors if he figures it out. However, his history of injuries gives you pause as to whether he’ll ever make it there.

10. Drew Carpenter, RHP

I really don’t know what to make of Carpenter. He has not looked impressive in his (very) brief time in the majors, but I can’t ignore his numbers after he was sent down to Lehigh Valley following his spot start with the big club: 10 starts, 7-2, 66.7 IP, 1.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 53 K. Maybe it’s just a flash in the pan, or maybe he’s figured something out. Either way, you can’t ignore those numbers. I’m actually surprised they didn’t give him another shot before settling on Pedro.

11. Anthony Gose, OF

Gose is an interesting prospect. He has pretty much no power, but he might be one of the fastest players in the minor leagues and he’s done a decent job of getting on base for an 18-year old in single-A. Gose has stolen 49 bases in 84 games, and would be on-pace for about 100 if the minor league seasons were 162 games. If he doesn’t work out as a hitter, he could be converted to a relief pitcher as he reportedly hit 97mph in high school.

12. Travis d’Arnaud, C

d’Arnaud had been one of the Phillies more disappointing prospects this year, but like Lou Marson, had turned it around a bit as of late. He’s hit around .275 since June 1, and has shown a decent power stroke (9 HR) all year. He’s also come up in run producing situations, and is 1st on the team and 9th in SAL in RBI. He is a superb defensive player, and you can see with his power numbers that he certainly has the potential to shoot way up this list if he puts it all together.

13. Yohan Flande, LHP

Flande, the Phillies other representative in the Futures Game, came out of nowhere this year and dominated in Clearwater with a 2.52 ERA in 13 starts. He has struggled since his promotion to Reading, but has only had a few starts there. Like seemingly every prospect in our system the last couple years, he is a left-handed pitcher who throws a low 90’s fastball and a change-up. He doesn’t have a whole lot of upside, but people were saying that about JA Happ a couple years ago as well.

14. John Mayberry Jr., OF

We’ve seen what Mayberry can do in the majors, and he’s at an age where he needs to either find a spot on the team, or he’s going to become too old to really be a prospect. I think his ceiling is something like a .250 hitter with 20 HR power. He’s a nice player, but with our other outfield prospects, he will likely only be a bench guy for us barring injury.

15. Vance Worley, RHP

Worley might be feeling a little bit of fatigue in his first full season in the minors. Last year’s 3rd round pick was challenged by the team when they started him in Reading. He had a 2.22 ERA in April, but his ERA has risen in each month since. He is a control guy with a low 90s fastball and a decent slider and change-up. I’ve read that the Phillies might see him as a future late-reliever.

16. Sebastian Valle, C

From here on out, these are very young prospects with upside, but aren’t currently even in Lakewood and have a lot to prove. The first is Valle, who after struggling a bit starting the year in Lakewood, has been killing the Gulf Coast League. Valle is hitting .390 with 4 HR, 19 RBI and a 1.229 OPS in 16 games there.

17. Trevor May, RHP

May is one of a couple high potential pitchers the Phillies picked in the 2008 draft. His fastball sits around 92-94 and he his curve ball has the chance to be an out pitch for him. So far in Lakewood, he’s striking out a lot of batters, but walking a ridiculous amount. This shows me he has the pure stuff, but as 19, has a long way to go with his mechanics and control.

18. Anthony Hewitt, 3B

Speaking of a long way to go… Hewitt, the Phillies controversial 1st round pick last year (you know, because he can’t hit) has shown a little, but not much improvement in his second go-around in short-season Williamsport. Hewitt has been described as a “Bo Jackson-type” athlete, but he is essentially learning how to be a baseball player right now. It’s more likely he will fail than succeed, but if the light turns on in the next couple years, watch out.

19. Matthew Way, SP

The only member of the 2009 draft class, Way signed right away and went straight to work. He’s way too old for Williamsport, but he gets a spot at the end here because only 5 hits in his 16 IP there while striking out a batter an inning. Like I said with Johan Flande, he fits the Phillies pitcher profile: Lefty, low 90s FB with an above average change-up!

20. Domingo Santana, OF

Really just taking a flyer with this last guy here. Santana was signed out of the DR this season for $330,000. He has been hitting well in the Gulf Coast League, where guys like Hewitt have been struggling. Considering his age (16), size (6′5”, 200), position (CF) and apparent raw power (3 HR in first 5 games), he is someone to keep an eye on, but probably wouldn’t sniff the majors until 2014.

Just Missed: Mike Stutes RHP, Zach Collier OF, Drew Naylor RHP, Mike Cisco RHP, Kelly Dugan OF

2008 high draft picks who haven’t thrown yet: Colby Shreve RHP, Jarred Cosart RHP

Related posts:

1. Minor Update: Phillies Top 10 Prospects for 2009
2. Phillies Minor Update: How the top prospects are faring
3. Minor Update: BP’s Top-11 Prospects Show Phils’ System’s Improvement

According to the poll we ran, 45% of you would quite literally trade the farm system for Roy Halladay, while 55% would not. The airwaves and newspapers are abuzz with passionate arguments about how we have to try to win now, or how we can’t mortgage the future for one player. Neither side is wrong. Neither side is right.

Luckily for us, this wouldn’t be the first time in the history of baseball that a team traded a boatload of prospects for a #1 starter. Over the last 12 years, 14 trades have happened in which an “ace” is traded for a leigon of young players. I’m going to examine those trades here, and give grades to the team in the Phillies position (i.e. giving up the prospects) based on how the trade worked out.

Dec 15, 1997

Padres get: Kevin Brown
Marlins get: Derrek Lee, Steve Hoff, Rafael Medina

Brown’s contract status: Off season move, 1 year left on contract.

How it worked out: Brown was dominant in his season with the Padres, with a 2.38 ERA over 257 IP. He led the Padres to 98 wins and a NL Pennant, only to be swept by the Yankees in the World Series. After the season, he signed a long-term deal with the Dodgers. Lee was the only chip in the deal that they missed, as he went on to help the Marlins win a championship in 2003.

Grade: Winning the pennant makes this a worthwhile deal for the Padres, even though Lee turned out to be a star. B+

July 31, 1998

Astros get: Randy Johnson
Mariners get: Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, John Halama

Johnson’s contract status: Mid-season move, 1/2 year left on contract.

How it worked out: Johnson was 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA in 11 starts for the Astros, but the offense couldn’t support him in the playoffs and the Astros were bounced in the first round by Brown’s Padres. Johnson signed with the Diamondbacks after the season. Garcia had a great 5 1/2 season with the Mariners, making 2 all-star games. Guillen didn’t meet his potential until he was traded to the Tigers, where he made 3 all-star games, and John Halama was a solid rotation guy for a couple years.

Grade: The Astros risked it with Johnson hoping it would get them a World Series, but it didn’t get them past the first round. They gave up 2 future all-stars that could have helped them in the final years of the Bagwell/Biggio era. D+

Feb 18, 1999

Yankees get: Roger Clemens
Blue Jays get: David Wells, Homer Bush, Graeme Lloyd

Clemens’ contract status: Off season move, 2 years left on contract.

How it worked out: The Yankees were coming off a season in which they won 114 games and the World Series, and Clemens was coming off a year where he won his 2nd straight Cy Young. The Yankees won 2 more World Series with Clemens, who pitched so-so in the regular season, but very well in the playoffs. Wells was solid for the Blue Jays, but the Jays really messed up this deal when they dropped their demand for Alfonso Soriano to be involved. Bush, the only young player in the deal, was a bust.

Grade: You could argue that Yankees would have won those World Series with either Wells or Clemens, but we know they did win them with Clemens. A

July 26, 2000

Diamondbacks get: Curt Schilling
Phillies get: Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla, Nelson Figeuroa, Travis Lee

Schilling’s contract status: Mid-season move, 1 1/2 years left on contract.

How it worked out: We know this one well. Schilling had his best years with Diamondbacks, including winning a World Series, while Ed Wade traded one of the best players in baseball, and got back no one in particular.

Grade: Schilling put the D-Backs over the top, and only gave up a couple decent Vicente Padilla seasons to do it. A+

June 27, 2002

Expos get: Bartolo Colon
Indians get: Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Lee Stevens

Colon’s contract status: Mid-season move, 1 1/2 years left on contract.

How it worked out: The Expos were making a playoff push but fell short even after acquiring Colon, who went 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA with the Expos. They then moved Colon to the White Sox the next season for El Duque and others. Meanwhile, they gave up an MVP candidate, a Cy Young winner and an all-star 2B, setting the franchise back years.

Grade: Probably the worst trade on this list, the Nationals would look a lot different right now with Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips on their squad. F

Nov 30, 2003

Red Sox get: Curt Schilling
Diamondbacks get: Brandon Lyon, Casey Fossum, Jorge De La Rosa, Michael Goss

Schilling’s contract status: Off-season move, trade contingent on Schilling signing a multi-year extention.

How it worked out: Schilling, like with the Diamondbacks, was the missing piece for the Red Sox and led them to their first World Series title in 86 years after winning 21 games in the regular season. Lyon was a decent relief pitcher for the Diamondbacks, but they really didn’t get much out of this deal.

Grade: Ended an 86-year drought and didn’t give up much to do it. A+

Dec 17, 2004

Braves get: Tim Hudson
Athletics get: Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, Charles Thomas

Hudson’s contract status: Off-season move, 1 year left on deal. Signed an extension before his first pitch with Braves.

How it worked out: Hudson has been solid, when healthy, for the Braves, but the team has only made the playoffs once in his 4 years there. Right now he’s being paid $13 million to miss the season and will be a free agent after the season. Meyer was supposed to be a can’t miss pitching prospect, but he missed, as did Thomas, while Cruz made his mark on other clubs.

Grade: Hudson didn’t have the impact that the Braves had hoped, but the prospects they gave up didn’t end up hurting them. B

Dec 20, 2004

Cardinals get: Mark Mulder
Athletics get: Dan Haren, Daric Barton, Kiko Calero

Mulder’s contract status: Off-season move, 2 years remaining on deal.

How it worked out: Mulder had a good 1st year with the Cardinals with a 3.64 ERA in 205 IP, but blew his arm out the year after and has not been effective since. Meanwhile, Dan Haren became so good, that he’s on the other end of one of these deals a little bit down the page.

Grade: Haren has been a top-5 pitcher in the NL the last 2 years, and you could make the argument he’s the best pitcher in baseball this season. The Cardinals were looking for an ace, but they already had one. They avoid an “F” because they only gave up one star. D-

Jan 11, 2005

Yankees get: Randy Johnson
Diamondbacks get: Javier Vazquez, Dioner Navarro, Brad Halsey, $9 million

Johnson’s contract status: Off-season move, trade contingent on Johnson signing a multi-year extension.

How it worked out: Johnson was not the dominant pitcher the Yankees had hoped, putting up a 3.79 ERA in his first season and 5.00 ERA in his second. Vazquez is a good pitcher who can’t handle the big lights and Navarro was the starting catcher for the AL champion Rays last year.

Grade: The Yankees didn’t get what they wanted from Johnson, but didn’t give up any stars to do it. However, pieces like Vazquez and Navarro might have been best used acquiring someone else. C

Nov 24, 2005

Red Sox get: Josh Beckett (and Mike Lowell)
Marlins get: Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia

Beckett’s contract status: Off-season move, 2 years remaining on deal.

How it worked out: Fantastic for both teams. Beckett gave up 4 runs in 4 postseason starts in 2007, leading the Sox to their 2nd World Series title of the decade. Lowell happened to be the MVP of that series. Hanley Ramirez on the other hand, has become one of the best players in baseball.

Grade: Beckett has been very good when healthy, but blister problems have continued to plague him. However, the Red Sox absolutely don’t win the 2007 World Series without him. Right now they would probably trade Beckett back to the Marlins for Ramirez if they could given the pitching depth in their system, but winning the Series guarantees a good grade. A-

Dec 15, 2007

Diamondbacks get: Dan Haren
Athletics get: Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Chris Carter, Carlos Gonzalez, Aaron Cunningham, Greg Smith

Haren’s contract status: Off-season move, 3 years remaining on deal.

How it worked out: Haren, part of the Mark Mulder deal above, has been exactly what the Diamondbacks wanted him to be, sporting a 2.84 ERA through 2 seasons with the squad. Unfortunately, the young offensive players have struggled big time and the Diamondbacks haven’t sniffed the playoffs. Meanwhile, since Haren had 3 years left on his contract, the Diamondbacks had to give up a ridiculous prospect haul to get him. Anderson, the jewel of the deal, is a flame-throwing lefty who, at 21, is already a part of the A’s rotation. Smith and Gonzalez went to Colorado as part of the Matt Holliday deal. Carter and Cunningham are both still top offensive prospects.

Grade: This is a real tough one. The Diamondbacks can’t complain at all with what Haren has given them, but the team has been such a disaster that they might have been better off just hanging off to all those prospects. Anderson, Carter and Cunningham all appear like they will be solid pros and Anderson might be a star. Chances are none will be as good as Haren, so I don’t know who they would take. B

Jan 29, 2008

Mets get: Johan Santana
Twins get: Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra

Santana’s contract status: Off-season move, trade contingent on Santana signing a multi-year extention.

How it worked out: Santana has been very good for the Mets, with a 2.72 ERA through 2 seasons. However, whether it’s the bullpen or the injuries, the Mets haven’t cashed in on their acquisition. On the other end, Gomez is struggling to hit, and it remains to be seen what kind of player he will be. Humber, Mulvey and Guerra all could be starters some day, but none are top prospects.

Grade: This trade still makes me mad. The Mets got the best pitcher in baseball and didn’t even have to give up their best prospect to get him because the Twins so poorly misplayed their hand with the Yankees and Red Sox. Obviously, Johan hasn’t taken the Mets to the playoffs, but they didn’t give up anyone elite to get him. A-

Feb 8, 2008

Mariners get: Erik Bedard
Orioles get: Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, Kameron Mickolio

Bedard’s contract status: Off-season move, 2 years remaining on deal.

How it worked out: Bedard and Felix Hernandez were supposed to give the Mariners a 1-2 punch that would lead them to the AL West title. It didn’t. Bedard only threw 81 innings for the Mariners and they finished with one of the worst records in baseball. This season he’s healthy and pitching better, but the Mariners are only a fringe contender. The other franchise in this deal, the Orioles, have pretty much rebuilt their franchise on this trade. Adam Jones is a superstar in the making and Tillman is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Sherrill has been their closer for 2 years and both Butler and Mickolio are viable major league prospects.

Grade: In a couple years, this could rivals or pass the Expos/Colon trade above. The Mariners were blasted at the time of the trade for giving up too much, and the injury to Bedard and emergence of Jones has actually made the deal worse than originally thought. F

July 7, 2008

Brewers get: CC Sabathia
Indians get: Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson, Micheal Brantley

Sabathia’s contract status: Mid-season move, 1/2 year remaining on deal.

How it worked out: The Brewers, desperate to make the playoffs, traded for the Indians stud, knowing he was a half year rental. Much like Randy Johnson and the Astros, Sabathia was comically dominant (11-2, 1.65 ERA) in the regular season, but couldn’t get the Brewers past the first round (and Sugar Shane Victorino’s power stroke). On the Indians end, all of the players are still in the minors and while they expect big things from LaPorta, nothing is guaranteed at this point.

Grade: The Brewers made the playoffs, which makes the trade at least somewhat of a success. However, they certainly envisioned Ben Sheets being there with Sabathia and making a run deeper in the playoffs. Since the prospects they gave up aren’t in the majors yet, it’s not possible to give them a proper grade. N/A

CONCLUSIONS

While some talking heads, writers and fans speak with such certainty that the Phillies should, or should not, make this trade - these trades (shockingly) show that there is no definitive right or wrong answer on this. Some teams went on to win the World Series after the move, some severely damaged their franchise for years to come.

Let’s run down the grades I gave out for the teams in our position…

A – 5
B – 3
C – 1
D – 2
F –  2
N/A – 1

If you count A’s and B’s as “successful” trades, 8 of the 14 trades turned out OK for the teams giving up the prospects. Only 5 of the 14 turned out bad, but 2 of those 14 really decimated the franchise trading the prospects. However, both those teams were trying to get to the upper echelon of teams, not already there like the Phils. So on a whole, you can say that there is about a 60% chance you won’t regret the trade.

What does concern me is that only 2 of these trades included 5 or more prospects (what the Blue Jays are asking) and those graded out at a “B” and an “F” and the package that is closest to what we would have to give up is what the Mariners gave the Orioles (though none of our prospects are as highly regarded as Jones was). However, the Mariners were not ready to contend and Halladay is far, far better than Bedard.

I didn’t expect this to show one way or another that we should do the deal, but it does give some perspective. It seems as though the teams that were already built for success and made the move to put them over the top had a better chance of not regretting it than those who did it to try to play with the big boys. Obviously, we fall into the former category, so that would infer we have a better chance of success with the deal.

For me, whether to do this deal or not will still come down to the package we have to give up, but I hope this gives everyone some perspective that there is no easy, or correct, answer at this point and we’ll just have to wait and see.

I’m sure there are plenty of talking points I missed – does this change the way you think about a possible trade?

Related posts:

1. Would you make this trade for Roy Halladay?
2. Phillies Rumors: Myers out…Halladay, Oswalt, Peavy in?
3. Sixers Trade Talk: 2009 Trade Deadline Edition

Summer League Sucked!

The joint team idea was a busts and hopefully a learned lesson sacrificing on the basketball side by being cheap I mean fiscally responsible.  None of the players like or thrived in it and the head coach didn’t speak favorably of it either.

At the end of the week did we learn anything?  Yeah two things.

1. Marreese Speights takes too many jumpers and needs to start focusing on being an inside player offensively, defensively and on the boards.
2. Jrue Holiday can play some defense right now to help the Sixers but is a long way away from being special.

That’s all the brain power I have alloted for those ridiculous pick-up games I mean professional summer league basketball arrangement.

No One Wants Andre Miller – surprise, surprise

Really, does this surprise anyone?  Andre Miller is a good player.  He finds a way to get the job done but his game is a bit too limited.  He is a weak defender, poor perimeter shooter, aging and depreciating and clearly he and his agent have a false sense of worth and/or complete ignorance to the financial landscape of the NBA and team payrolls.

For me the progression with Andre Miller has been this…

• Should we resign him? If so how much?
• I think we should move on without him.
• Can we get something of value for him in a sign and trade?
• I really hope we don’t sign him for 3 years and anywhere near $30M
• If they do sign him(which they shouldn’t) it should be no more than 2 years, $14M – $15M
• Sign and trade with Portland for Blake and Outlaw?  Eh I guess I would take that.
• Whew, good job Sixers only offering 1 year for roughly the MLE.  I have no problem keeping him on that deal as long as they find minutes for Jrue at the point and not force him to play off the ball.
• Sign and trade with Portland – Debunked
• Now what?  Does he just settle for this deal or try to find a market for his services that doesn’t exist?
• The Knicks interested?  Sign and trade for Chris Duhon?  Eh it’s only one year, he did shoot 39% from three, 85% from the line and averaged 7.5 assist to 2.8 turnovers.  Where his numbers inflated in D’Antoni’s system?  I think I’d just rather them let the kid run the show and learn on the job.
• Sign and trade with the Knicks – Debunked
• I no longer care about or plan to talk about Andre Miller

What I Do Care About Regarding the Sixers at this Point…

How will they fill out the remaining roster spots.  Once they sign Holiday they will have 10 guys and need probably 3 more.  Assuming Miller is gone we need a cheap veteran point guard, a shooting guard and a veteran big, preferably a center.  Who’s out there on the cheap?

• Von Wafer – SG
• Dionte Christmas – SG
• Brevin Knight – PG
• Anthony Carter – PG
• Flip Murray – Combo Guard
• Rodney Carney – G/F
• Drew Gooden – PF
• Chris Wilcox – PF
• Stromile Swift – PF
• Joe Smith – PF
• Shelden Williams – PF/C
• Radoslav Nesterovic – C
• Jason Collins – C
• Patrick O’Bryant – C
• Chris Mihm – C
• Saer Sene – C
• Jarron Collins – C
• Didier Ilunga-Mbenga – C
• Calvin Booth – C
• Melvin Ely – C
• Ryan Hollins  – C
• Lorenzen Wright – C
• Adonal Foyle – C
• Jamaal Magloire – C
• Jake Voskuhl – C

Among others and undrafted rookies.

Coaching Staff Final?

As I expected Eddie Jordan brought on Randy Ayers to round out his coaching staff.  It looks like:

• Mike O’Koren – Lead Assistant
• Randy Ayers – Defensive Assistant
• Aaron McKie – Carryover/Player development
• Jim Lynam – Carryover

My question is where is the on-staff shooting coach?  At this point Jordan has brought over O’Koren and Ayers from his staff with the Wizards.  Why not add Dave Hopla as well who won’t be kept on under Flip Saunders?  Are the Sixers being cheap and skimping on the basketball side of things again?

That’s about it for the non-Sixers news so far this summer.  If anything legit happens I’ll be sure to get on it.  Until then I have an idea for a post looking at this upcoming season.

Related posts:

1. Sixers Summer League
2. News (Bad?) Involving Eddie Jordan
3. Where Do the Sixers Stand?

UPDATE: Pedro has signed. $1 million guaranteed, $1.5 million in incentives. He will likely be put on the DL immediately, and start a minor league rehab program. Expect to see him in August.

Jon Heyman is saying it is inevitable, Jayson Stark says he’s flying to Philly as I type. The writing appears to be on the wall, and Pedro Martinez will likely be donning the red pinstripes in the next couple days. So the question is – is this a good thing? In order to answer that question, I think we need to ask some other questions…

1. If Pedro can be helpful, why hasn’t anyone else signed him? It certainly appears the answer to this question is “money.” Pedro wanted a $5 million deal at the beginning of the year, and never backed down. He will likely take a pro-rated salary for a couple million, and the Phillies are one of only a few teams that have the ability to add payroll right now.
2. What kind of effect will he have on the clubhouse? While Pedro isn’t a bad clubhouse guy, he is different than the guys we have now. He’s loud, playful and demands the media’s attention. Will this distract our players, or will it take some pressure off them with all eyes on Pedro? I’m not sure, but I do know Gillick never made a move that would change the dynamic of this clubhouse.
3. What makes us think he’s better than Drew Carpenter, Carlos Carrasco or even Rodrigo Lopez? The Phillies have 3 viable options in the minors to take the 5th starter spot, but are instead choosing to put Pedro in that spot. They clearly think that Pedro can be better than those 3, and if he fails or gets hurt, they still have those guys to fall back on. The more the merrier, I guess.
4. What can we expect from Pedro? He had a 5.61 ERA last year, but was injured for most of that time. I think the best case scenario would be that he can pitch how he did in 2006, with a 4.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He claims that he feels as good as he has in awhile (of course he does) and he did look good in the WBC (6 scoreless innings for the Dominican) but I have some serious doubts as to whether he can keep up production over a full half-season.
5. Is it bad that I’m excited? As you can see, I have my doubts about this, and I really don’t see this working out how Ruben thinks it will. Pedro might have thrown 91 in a 3 inning simulated game, but he won’t be doing that over several 6 inning starts. This might be like watching Livan Hernandez throw a bunch of junk at hitter every start with varying results. However, I can’t help but be somewhat optimistic. I mean, this is Pedro Martinez. One of the best pitchers of all time. The guy who had, in my opinion, the single greatest pitching season in baseball history in 2000. He’s a super-duper-star unlike anyone on our team even though he hasn’t pitched in about a year. Like the move or not, there is no way you are missing his first start in pinstripes.

Here’s what I think will happen

I think we sign Pedro this week, and he puts together a couple good starts since his arm is so fresh right now. Around mid-August, I think his age and wear will catch up to him and he’ll start getting hit around and/or hurt and Carpenter or Lopez will take his spot in the rotation. The Phillies clearly have the money right now, so I’m OK with them taking this risk, I just don’t see it working out. Either way, it’ll certainly be interesting for the fans, and we can always hope Pedro can reinvent himself and help our push towards the playoffs.

What do you guys think?

I’m sure everyone has an opinion on this. Let’s hear it.

Related posts:

1. Welcome Pedro Feliz! Respectable Third-Baseman!
2. Phillies Sign Chan Ho Park, Forget It’s Not 2001
3. Rowand vs. Jenkins/Werth – Is there a $47 million dollar difference?

2009: 45-38
2008: 44-39
2007: 42-41

Player of the Series: Jayson Werth (6 for 15, 4 HR, 9 RBI)
Goat of the Series:  Jamie Moyer (5 IP, 6 ER)

OK, instead of my Good News / Bad News stuff, I’m going to look at some of the interesting paces that Phillies players have set for themselves the first half of the year…

166 – Strikeouts by Joe Blanton, his previous career high is 140

35 – HR’s allowed by Blanton, his previous career high is 23

1.20 – J.A. Happ’s WHIP. Would be the 2nd lowest for a Phillies rookie w/ 150+ IP. The lowest is HOFer Pete Alexander in 1911.

41 – HR’s by Ryan Howard, would be the lowest full-season total of his career

124 – RBI’s by Ryan Howard, would be the lowest full-season total of his career

.994 – Howard’s fielding %, the highest of his career

39 – Doubles by Howard, his previous career high is 26

50 – HR’s by Raul Ibanez, 17 more than his previous career high

22 – Games in which Brad Lidge has a loss or a blown save, or Ryan Madson has a loss

1.82 – Brad Lidge’s WHIP. The highest of any Phillies reliever with 60+ IP since 1945.

41 – Home runs allowed by Jamie Moyer, the 9th highest total in the history of baseball, but only 3rd highest by a Phillies (Robin Roberts, 46 in 1956 and Eric Milton, 43 in 2004).

2.0 – HR/9 by Moyer, 4th highest in baseball history and tops in Phillies history

16 – Wins by Jamie Moyer, 6 more than any other starter.

99, 38, 68, 26 – Runs, Doubles, RBIs and stolen bases by Jimmy Rollins. Incredible considering how bad he’s played. Most any team would take that from a gold glove SS.

40, 120, .300, 1.000 – HR, RBI, BA and OPS for Chase Utley. Only one 2B has ever done that in a season, Rogers Hornsby in 1922.

120, 40, 80, 30, .300 – Runs, doubles, RBI, SB and BA  for Shane Victorino. Would be the 1st Phillie ever to put up those numbers, and only the 14th in MLB history.

205 – Hits for Shane Victorino. Would be only the 13th Phillie w/ 200+ hits in a season.

40, 107 – HR and RBI that Jayson Werth is on pace for, 16 and 40 higher than his career highs.

4 – Number of Phillies on pace for 40+ HR and 100+ RBI. Only Cy Williams, Mike Schmidt, Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, Chuck Klein and Dick Allen have done that in a single-season over the history of the Phillies.

6 – Number of Phillies in the top-17 in the NL in runs scored

Alright, that’s all I have for now – Anything else I come up with I’ll throw in my mid-season review, which I will be writing over the all-star break.

Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates at Phillies

Dannie and I were actually in Pittsburgh a couple weekends ago checking out PNC Park, so we got a good look at this Pirates team. They are full of young, decent players, but no one even approaching star level. Their starting pitching is more of a strength, but they still don’t have anyone  that will blow you away. Their leading run producer in Adam LaRoche, who ranks 45th in the NL with 39 RBI, 5 more than Jimmy Rollins. They aren’t good, and probably won’t be good any time soon because management can’t draft, and doesn’t know what they are doing.

Friday: Blanton vs. Zach Duke (8-7, 3.28 ERA)
Saturday: Hamels vs. Ross Ohlendorf (7-7, 4.63 ERA)
Sunday: Happ vs. Virgil Vasquez (1-2, 4.50 ERA)

Three Questions for the Series…

1. How will Ibanez look coming back from injury?
2. Will we be talking more about the series, or the rampant Pedro Martinez / Roy Halladay rumors?
3. Does anyone actually like the Pirates uniforms?

Prediction

I think that the final 2 games of this series heavily favor the Phillies, especially if Ibanez comes back strong. Blanton has been pitching great recently and I think the Phillies can ride their momentum into the break at 10-games over .500 with a sweep of the Pirates.

Related posts:

1. 2008 MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates
2. The ReclinerGM’s 2009 MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Phils rock Cards, crumble vs. Mets

• Kyle Drabek will absolutely need to be involved in the deal
• Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor will absolutely need to be involved in the deal
• 2 more above average prospects, and 1 average prospect, will likely need to be involved in the deal

Bottom line? It’s going to take a lot more than we have been discussing here. The Phillies don’t have a Matt Wieters, David Price, Evan Longoria “can’t miss” type prospects to sweeten the deal, so it’s going to have to be done with quantity. You also have to remember that we look at our prospects through rose colored glasses sometimes and other teams GM’s don’t, and they are what matter. My original hope of Carrasco, Brown and Marson is not going to be enough.

So here is the question… do you, if you were Ruben Amaro Jr., make the following trade:

Roy Halladay for Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Johan Flande

Vote it up – I’m really curious to see what people do here…

note: Let’s operate under the assumption that the Phillies will not re-sign Halladay after the 2010 season because there is a less than 50% chance of that happening.

Related posts:

1. Phillies Rumors: Myers out…Halladay, Oswalt, Peavy in?
2. Will a Halladay trade be worth it? A historical look at trades for Aces
3. Opinion: Trade Werth, not Michael Taylor

Stats and Ranks

Some Interesting Stats and Facts

• One of 3 Phillies (Carlton, Bedrosian) to win the Cy Young Award.
• Gave up 2 ER or less in 27 of his 36 starts, and 1 ER or less in 20 of 36.
• Top-5 in the NL in ERA (2nd), Wins (1st), W/L% (1st), WHIP (5th), BB/9 (3rd), Starts (3rd), HR/9 (1st) and ERA+ (2nd).
• Since 1920, only Carlton (’72, ‘80), Bunning (’67) and John Denny (’83) pitched over 240 innings with an ERA under 2.40.
• 2nd highest winning percentage (.760) of any pitcher in Phillies history with 25+ decisions.
• Allowed only 9 HR in those 242.2 IP (or 1 every 4 starts). Led the NL in HR/9 (0.33) and is one of only 3 Phillies pitchers since 1950 to have a HR/9 rate that low with 200+ IP.
• Only Phillies pitcher since 1950 with less than 0.33 HR/9 and 2.0 BB/9 rates.
• This season, his first full one with the Phillies, followed a 6-13, 4.87 ERA season with the Indians and Phillies.

Why He’s Here

When watching baseball, two of the most frustrating things for fans to see is a pitcher giving up a walk, or grooving a fastball for a home run. In that case, John Denny might have had the least frustrating season in Phillies history. Denny wasn’t a fireballer who was going to blow anyone away. In fact, his K/9 rate (5.2) ranks him 96th all-time for Phillies pitchers with 180+ innings, right behind Pat Combs and Omar Daal. Instead, he relied on control and keeping the ball in the park. Only a handful of pitchers ever did both so well, for so many innings.

From 1946-2008, only 7 pitchers had a season in which they pitched over 242 IP, with a HR/9 rate below 0.34/9 and a BB/9 below 2.0/9. You might recognize some of the names: Bob Gibson (1968), Gaylord Perry (1968), Don Sutton (1971), Ron Reed (1975), Vida Blue (1976), John Denny (1983) and Kevin Brown (1998). Denny unbelievably reliable, giving up more than 4 runs only 3 times all season, and pitching at least 6 innings in 26 of 36 starts.

Like many of the top season entries, Denny’s season helped the Phillies to the playoffs, and the World Series. In the playoffs, he equaled his regular season ERA of 2.37 over 3 starts, but only won 1 game.

Previous ‘Top-20 Seasons’ Entries

#17 – Tug McGraw, 1980
#18 - Greg Luzinksi, 1977
#19 - Gavvy Cravath, 1913
#20 - Lenny Dykstra, 1993

Five pitchers that just missed (and criteria for rankings)

Five hitters that just missed

Related posts:

1. The Phillies Top 20 Individual Seasons , # 17 : Tug McGraw, 1980
2. The Phillies Top 20 Individual Seasons, #20: Lenny Dykstra, 1993
3. The Phillies Top 20 Individual Seasons, #19: Gavvy Cravath, 1913

Since we are talking a lot about Roy Halladay trade scenarios, I thought it would be interesting to see which prospects people most want to hold on to. Below (and on the side bar) is a poll with just that question. I think that most of us would trade pretty much anyone for Halladay, but I’m sure there are certain players we would want to keep over others. Feel free to explain your answer in comments.

Related posts:

1. Would you make this trade for Roy Halladay?
2. Phils Trade Once Top-Prospect Golson
3. Phillies Rumors: Myers out…Halladay, Oswalt, Peavy in?