RED DIRT TRADER

Explain BITCOIN to Complete Beginners: Ultimate Guide!!

2023-07-19T19:08:00.000-05:00

$HKO:$USD - Daily Candlesticks

2011-01-24T17:45:00.000-06:00

$HKO:$USD - Daily Candlesticks: "

via StockCharts.com

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Using the $CZM for this chart now. This is a Triple leveraged ETF with holding in BIDU and other Chinese Stocks.

RedDirt Update

2010-08-19T19:58:00.003-05:00

The path of least resistance is to the downside. Trendline support from the March '09 bottom to the low of July '10 is around 1032.75 on the September futures contract. Resistance remains at the 1130 level. What I think will happen is a slow drift lower to around 1040-1045 in early September for a seasonal low. What I THINK and what HAPPENS is relative to reading the chart on a daily basis. So tomorrow things will probably change!
We could easily see a bounce to the 1094.50 level in the futures. I'll be trading off 512 tick and 3200 tick charts along with watching the hourly with pivot points.
For the Joe's out there, Support @ 1032 and Resistance @ 1130.
So, what I said weeks ago about being range bound is still intact. The last four months have been a option writers delight.

Time to call it Quits!

2010-08-18T18:16:00.001-05:00

Hedge fund mgr. Stanley Druckenmiller calls it Quits!

Sept. Sugar

2010-08-04T21:04:00.003-05:00

September Sugar made a hammer today with the low of 17.95 which is .48 above the 29 day moving average. The high of 18.96 will be closely watched tomorrow by this trader.
A breakout above that high could lead to a retest of the recent high of 19.88

The recent rally isn't showing any bearish divergence so this may be the start of another leg up.
Tomorrow's Pivot Point is 18.60 with 1st support at 18.23 and 1st resistance at 19.24

Old vs. New

2010-07-30T19:40:00.005-05:00

The OLD!!!!

The NEW!!!!!

Update

2010-07-23T20:42:00.000-05:00

RedDirt has been busy setting up the new trading desk. I'll post some pictures soon.

Where's the market headed?

2010-07-07T21:15:00.003-05:00

The advance decline line tells me that we are in an accumulation phase of the market. With the 50 day ma still above the 200 day ma this may take more time to play out. With a sideways pattern staying above the 200 day ma leads me to believe the next leg up is in the near future. Exactly when it will start is not known. Normally the fastest money is made during the 2nd leg up of a bull market. I think we could see the Dow move to the 14,000 level during the next move. But first we must see a S&P500 close above the 29 day ma.

Sorry for not posting more often but I just haven't had the time. Between my day job and managing 3 accounts of my own, Time is Short!

Hammer

2010-05-25T18:29:00.002-05:00

Take a look at the hammer candlestick formation made today. This should set up for a bounce. I'm sure I'll be long the S&P500 and looking for a PROFIT! With the 29 day and 65 day about to cross negative, the 29 day ma will be a place to take some chips off the table. Opening stoploss will be the low of the hammer. Hope that support doesn't get broken and take me out of this trade. I will watch the open on Wednesday and if we gap up I'll wait at least 15 minutes, maybe more before entering the trade. Let me explain, if the low of the open gets taken out within fifteen minutes of that open then I'll be patient and look for the gap to get filled. I'll be watching support levels such as the pivot points and my intraday moving averages. It's important to be patient. If the market opens below the high of the hammer I'll probably place a buy stop just above the hammer and place my initial stop just below the low of the hammer.

Probably Range Bound

2010-05-16T17:58:00.002-05:00

We could be setting up for a range bound or sideways trade for a couple of weeks. Looks like support will be 1100 to 1104 while resistance should be drawn from the April high to the 1170 area high of May. We could channel sideways or make a descending triangle pattern before the next big trade comes along.

Whew!!!!

2010-05-06T18:19:00.002-05:00

Lots of fun today! Only order for me that was filled was for $JOEZ. I placed a buy limit some time ago to buy 3000 shares at a limit of $1.60 and today I got it.

RedDirtUpdate

2010-04-26T18:49:00.002-05:00

The $SPX chart is showing some bearish divergence in the StochRSI as well as weakness in moneyflow. With 62.8% fibo retracement setting at 1227 we may finally be looking to a tradable pullback.
Gary from Between the Hedges blog has once again let us know some of his long positions. CLICK HERE
Bill Dirlam from DecisionMoose sticks with IWM for another week.
Over the weekend I purchased my membership to the AAII website. The reason for this was to gain access to their stock screens.The Oberweis Octagon scan has been hot lately. But the scan results I really wanted to see was the Piotroski. Some of the others also caught my interest such as the Motley Fools "Foolish SmallCap 8 revised" scan. I also continue to use my own scans for stock finds. My GarpScan and my ten-bagger scan continue to work well.

Is it Time to put on some Shorts?

2010-03-30T18:53:00.003-05:00

When I start seeing black candles I tend to want to put on some shorts(literally and figuratively), go out and play golf, come back in a couple of weeks and buy a few GARP Stocks.

It is Time to Pass Health Care Reform

2010-03-21T16:04:00.001-05:00

Watching the $

2010-03-18T20:20:00.003-05:00

This index is worth watching right now in my opinion! Looking at the daily chart the US Dollar is now setting inside of the support trading band. Most recently that trading band has been bullish. Price has been above the band for sometime now. That band has turned neutral.(sideways)_In other words it's not trending up or down but has turned toward the 3 o'clock on the chart. Is this distribution or rest and pause before a third leg up since finding support at 74.21

Looks like a good time to start watching the short term trend on some of the majors. Personally the shortest time frame that I chart on the currencies is 3-minute. Other than that I'll also watch my charts set to 133tk, then a 1 hour with pivots and also a 2 hour with a 34 hi-lo-close ema trading band. Then of course once/day I'll look at the daily. Once/week I'll look at the weekly. Once/month I'll look at the monthly time frames.

I know this post sounds indecisive and it should. That's where the market is at this point. Undecided! But, the effects of direction in this currency could effect the price in commodities, bonds and stocks.

The recent run in the stock market with light volume is not a very convincing breakout! When the pullback comes we should look to find support at or near the breakout point that everyone talks about. 1145-1150 on the S&P! We could possibly see a high of 1227 before that pullback happens. Then I expect to see the VIX to continue moving up with price for sometime. Most people associate a rising VIX with falling prices in stocks. But that is not always the case. Volatility also occurs to the upside not always the downside.

Volume Surge

2010-03-16T19:49:00.003-05:00

Here's a stock I love to hate! But, by the looks of the recent surge in volume, some people are starting to fall in love with this one. It has the possibility of retracement to 3 bagger territory over the next few years which would approach the $30 range. It could do much better depending on licensing revenues and managements ability to turn this big ship around in rough waters. This stock has gone from a low of $4.12 in March of 2009 to close above $10 today. Over 100% gain and somehow still flying way below the radar!

Big H&S

2010-03-16T18:31:00.003-05:00

Click on the chart for a better view. This is a Ford common stock chart that shows the long term reverse head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is around the $8.80/share line. The exact bottom was $1.01/share. If you figure the difference from the bottom of the head to the neckline, then add that amount to the breakout of the neckline it gives you a initial target price of around $16.60/share. As of today the stock closed @ $13.49 and with the possibility of a retest of the breakout, buying here is not advantageous. Best to wait for a pull back or possible retest of the neckline for support. As things stand at this time if you where to buy at say $$13.50 you would be looking to make $3.10/share but if the neckline support where to be broken and stop you out just below $8.80/share that would be a loss of $4.70/share. The odds just don't stack in your favor. BE PATIENT!

Biotech Surge

2010-03-14T19:05:00.005-05:00

Looks like somebody has lit the fuse on the Biotech Rocket!

Here is the ETF that I found most closely tracks the Index.

Taking a Look at the Past

2010-03-06T15:34:00.003-06:00

The highlighted boxes are all along a line that has some significance. The first time we found resistance there was in 1997 with the Russian debt default. The second time was during the bear market rally after 9/11. The 3rd time the market stalled at that level was during the Iraq War bull market. Now once again the market has found it's way to this level.

Notice the new addition to the sidebar! The Economic Calendar courtesy of FXSTREET.com

Click on the link for FXstreet.com then find and click the Fundamentals tab. Once the economic calendar pops up be sure to click the link at the bottom to "View Full Calendar".

03/03/2010

2010-03-03T21:15:00.000-06:00

Five stocks to watch!
FE, ENER, MIR, GVA, TKC

03/02/2010

2010-03-02T19:19:00.002-06:00

I think this is one of the best post Charles as ever made. The Kirk Report
What's in the data? The Economist
Nascent=The Daily Reckoning

03/01/2010

2010-03-01T19:35:00.009-06:00

Looks like the 9:30GMT data release from the UK made for a great trade if you were awake at 3:30CST.

I happened to still be sleeping off the 3-2 defeat to the cannucks in the Gold Medal hockey game. Then when they released their economic data @ 7:30CST the looney beat the dollar like a red headed snow boarder.

The five morning trades in the e-mini made up for having to settle for the silver medal!

FIVE STOCKS TO WATCH

THIS WEEKS ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Never Kick Yourself for Making a Profit

2010-02-21T11:24:00.002-06:00

Here's a look at a chart for Ford. This chart is what I call the Wilder29 chart style. The moving averages are the Wilders Smoothing averages set at 29 day on the high(green) and low(red). The Trend Period in orange is set at (3,29) and the ProjectionOscillator is also set at 29. Those are all overlaid on the price chart. Below that is Volume and the RSIWilder set at 29.

I originally bought 1000 shares @ $2.39/share. Sold half of my holding when the RSI hit overbought 70 and a spinning top candle was made. I held the other 500 shares and decided to let them hopefully run a bit more. After the correction in April the upward trend continued. Then, on May 1st, we had a Dark Cloud Cover candle pattern. May 5th I sold the other 500 shares and was out of the Ford Trade. Now I've got to kick myself, after the sideways consolidation that ended in July the stock made two more runs and hit a high of $12.14/share. What I thought was a deadcat bounce in this stock turned out to be much more. I fell asleep at the wheel and missed both of the breakouts because I was so busy that I failed to set breakout alerts! OH WELL, trades are like trains, another will come along soon.

RedDirt Watchlist

2010-02-19T20:10:00.006-06:00

I used the Finviz screener to develop a new watch list. This list contains the combination of several scans that meet certain criteria. I won't tell you how I came up with this list. It is what it says it is. A watch list. These stocks made it through certain fundamental, technical and volume scans. I'll elaborate more each Friday evening.

Here's a look at one of the charts:

I'm going home it's fixin' to Snow

2010-02-09T19:44:00.002-06:00

A couple of trades and I'm out of here! By the looks of my chart, most traders said "14 points in the e-mini" is enough! I'm going to beat this storm home. The rest of the day was spent churning sideways.The chart you're looking at is my 1-minute set up for trading the e-mini. Here are the rules: 1)Price above the top moving average be long. Trailing stop loss at or near the bottom moving average. 2)Price below the bottom moving average be short. Trailing stop at or near the top moving average.