Reflections of Election 2016

Election Eve

2016-11-04T17:14:00.000-07:00

As we near the end of another cycle I think it is important to look an see what has happened since my last post, and what will happen Tuesday night. Since the last post Hillary was up and down. In many ways when she was up she was on cruise control, and when she was down it was damage control. While I thought she couldn't loose unless she did something Trumpian, I was wrong. The media decided to go back to clowning around, much like it did in 2000. They played a game of false equivalency, so that to balance out Trumps egregious behavior, they would bring up emails, and the Clinton foundation. Understand that the Clintons have been the most investigated couple on the face of the earth. Between the two of them a billion dollars has been spent and the Republicans have found............ A blow job. Yup, that's it. Granted the Republicans have threaten the American public that if Hillary is elected their will be years of more investigation, they will not accept her Supreme Court picks, and to top it off they will impeach her! Once again your media is clowning around and instead of reporting the news as an unprecedented attack on democracy, they play it as if they can do it! Yup, the Republicans are holding your government hostage unless you vote in Trump. If you don't vote the way we want watch out we will punish you with more bad government! And you know how much you hate government!!! Plus, the media will parrot the old right wing talk radio canards of EVERYBODY DOES IT!! False equivalency at its best. Bottom line is two weeks of media malpractice, and FBI over step, including an investigation of the Clinton Foundation due to a Conspiracy theory in a book, and Clinton and Trump are tied! Think about this for a second. The book in question has been thoroughly debunked. It is as if a new book on JFK was released and the FBI decided to investigate his murder again!

Trump himself has proven over and over again that he should not be anywhere near the white house. his history with the Russians, and their interference with the election through release of Clinton and DNC emails through Wiki Leaks. Plus Trumps continued denial of knowing Putin, or denying that Russia was involved in the hacks, even though he has been briefed by the government as part of being the Republican candidate for president. Videos, and tapes of Trump talking about molesting women, and women coming forward about him groping them have done little to slow down his support. While high profile Republicans have come out for Hillary, many of the the rank and file, and the base of the party have double and tripled down their support for Trump.

So what happens Tuesday will say a lot about the American people and how future elections are run. Should Trump win it will rewrite the books. It will say that you don't need a ground game, or spend money on advertising. That all you need is a celebrity with high name recognition and you will win. That people don't pay attention (at least to Republican) indiscretions. that ethics, and morals don't apply (again at least to Republicans) That the media will give you 2 billion in free advertising if you are famous and outlandish enough.

So what I hope happens? I hope that ground game matters. Remember the Iowa caucus when I pointed out that Trump would not win because he had no ground game. That the evangelicals would help Ted Cruz win. Not only did Trumps lack of ground game cost him Iowa, which polls showed he was wining, but he almost was beat by Rubio for second. Trump has no ground game anywhere. Some have thought it could cost him anywhere from 2-3 percentage points, but I think it could be bigger. No ground game means no early voting. The Democrats have a large ground game and are getting out the early vote. This could also be the reason the polls show the race tightening as people who voted are not going to do polls. If you poll those who haven't voted yet it would swing republican. Tuesday night we will know.

Another reason to question the polls is the dramatic rise and fall of Clinton in one week. From 12 points up to 1 point down makes you wonder what is going on. Even with a bad week of news with the remarks of the FBI director, which have been roundly criticized, you still shouldn't see that big of a drop over what amounted to nothing. Now the polls are moving back in Clinton's favor. Its hard to say what is happening. Possibly early voting. They believe that 40% of voters will vote early this year, which is a big jump from previous years. I voted early and was called by a polling company. Keeping in mind about the polls I went through the survey, but many might hang up, or not answer if they have already voted. Yet, it is hard to say why the polls are moving around so much.

As I wrote months ago the Republican party is done, or at least what it use to be is done. Granted this election may see them win, but it won't be the same party. It will be a far right authoritarian party that will spend at least the next two if not four years punishing anyone who is not supportive of their ideology. This includes not only the Democrats, but Republicans as well. It will be a reign of terror never seen in America history. The obstruction of the Obama years will be looked back upon as the good old days as the once Grand Old Party destroys what is left of good government. Show trials will continue (as all of the Hillary Bengazi trials have been so far) and even if Hillary wins the promise of Republican obstruction will be far worse than the last eight years.

Perhaps the public is tired of this nonsense and will give Hillary the house and Senate, which looked possible a week ago, but now seems like wishful thinking. Hillary would have one chance and two years to show what good government and ethics looks like. If the Democrats succeed, then perhaps we can have another run at progressiveism like that of the 1900s. However, that looks like a distant dream now.

WHAT???

2016-08-11T21:21:00.000-07:00

I haven't posted for awhile, mainly because it just seemed so insane after the Iowa caucuses. Trump winning the nomination and the way he did it was unprecedented in many ways. I am not about to write a thousands words explaining it, or writing an obit for the Republican party. To be honest many others have done that and done it better. I posted during the caucus that for the Republicans to save themselves they needed to nominate one of the handful of establishment candidates. However, Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio were not on my list.

What I see happening this fall is pretty simple. Trump who is down by 6-10 points nationally will continue to drop. looking at suburban polling the middle class is moving towards Hillary Clinton. This will continue as Trump scares them to the middle. While there are a lot of you out in cyberspace that think Hillary is a socialist/communist, the reality is she is very much middle and thanks to Bernie Sanders slightly to the left. In many ways this election is shaping up to be much like the progressive era of the 1900s. What has made this strange is how it is happening.

Gilded Age politics of the past came to and end when McKinley died and Teddy Roosevelt became president. It was an accident of fate. Roosevelt was put into the Vice presidency to get him out of New York, since he was a progressive governor of New York. He was making too many waves with his reformist ways. They wanted him out and vice president was the perfect office, where he could do no harm and hopefully fade into obscurity. They even told McKinley not to die! Ooops!

However, today the end of the Gilded Age 2.0 is due to the fact that both the right and the left are tired of the establishment controlling the government. Ironically, neither side agrees on who the problem is, but they both agree it is government. On the right thanks to right wing talk radio and Fox news, it is government is to big and anyone who disagrees with their core set of values lacks purity and must be purged from the party. Guess what....... That leaves you with Trump. A non politician who parrots what he hears from Sean Hanity, Rush Limbaugh, and any other crank on the right. Trump speaks directly to his masses just as Rush, or any other rightwing talkshow host does. Ironically, the middle class doesn't want that. Sure they want lower taxes, strong military and police, but Trump scares them! Trump really represents the rabble, and the middle class has always been scared of the unwashed masses. The left on the other hand has never gotten back its mojo since the 60s. It too hates government. They see government as oppressive, and war like. This goes all the way back to Viet Nam, Lyndon Johnson, and Richard Nixon. They don't see the good in government only the bad. They see drug wars, and the CIA. Corruption behind both Democrats and Republicans. Too them even their heroes like Bernie, and Elisabeth Warren are sellouts since they backed Hillary.

What the left did though is move Hillary to the left. Under normal election years that would be a losing strategy, but this year it will win because she is running against Trump. Trump is a man child. He has impulse control problems. No matter what his handlers try to do, he reverts to middle school tactics of name calling and bullying. This is not a winning strategy. Plus his business dealing with Putin and the number of people on his team associated with the Russian have scared the mushy middle. Much like the progressive era of the 1900, the middle is scared and they want the rabble to be happy, and stop acting out. It doesn't matter if it is the Trump crowd, or the Bernie crowd, the vast majority of the US is scared of their extremism.

I predict that not only will Hillary win, but this could be a massive swing election. However, I am a historian not a futurists. Who knows what may happen over the next two months that could scare the mushy middle back to Trump. Yet, even with Hillary making a few missteps over the last few days. Very little has been said about it because Trump is the news everyday. Hillary would have to mess up on such a level that has never been seen (well on a Trumpian level:-) and since Trump does this daily I think she will win.

Scalia's Death and It's Unintended Consequences.

2016-02-15T18:46:00.001-08:00

Antonin Scalia's death will have a huge impact on the Republican party. The far right has boxed the party in a corner that it will never get out of. Immediately after the death of the supreme court justice many on the right demanded that Obama not appoint a new judge till after the election. Understand that a new president will not take office until a year from now. This is not only ridiculous, but nearly unprecedented. You have to go back to the presidencies of Tyler and Fillmore to find similar circumstances. Tyler(took over after the death of William Harrison when he died 30 days into office) was hated so much by his own party that he wasn't even nominated to run again. Fillmore, was the vice president of Zachary Taylor, and looked upon as more of a place holder than the president. Many people bring up Johnson in 1968, but again he was not liked by his own party, and they CONTROLLED THE SENATE! Understand that the odds of Obama getting a nomination passed a Republican senate was slim to begin with, but he has the constitutional obligation to nominate a justice.

What will happen is two things. One, if the Republican do obstruct, and deny Obama then expect the wrath of the public against the Republican party. Understand, that polls have shown that both Hillary and Bernie Sanders beat all Republicans nationwide now. Just think of how big they could win. What is even crazier is BERNIE IS A SOCIALISTS! Second, if the Republicans allow a vote, or even give in to Obama, then their own right wing will abandon them in the general. You can hear Rush Limbaugh and Fox news now going crazy if the Republicans gave in to Obama. It would be a melt down of epic proportions.

In many ways this is the worse possible news for the Republican Party. It was bleak before with Trump in control, but now it is possible that they will make themselves as obsolete if not treasonist as the Federalist did during the war of 1812. The Republicans have to get control of their ship, and realize that the long term success of their party is at stake. They have pushed so far to the right that they are appealing to an shrinking electorate of perhaps 20-30% of the US. While I am sure some Republican Party leaders will hold their nose and go along with this farce, most Americans will not. Just looking at the polls and seeing a true leftist like Sanders leading all Republican presidential candidates should be the wake up call they need. People realize that the 40 years of talking points, wedge issues, unfulfilled social issues, and an economic system that hasn't trickled down anything, has led to today. A political party that will do nothing to stay in power. That isn't a winning strategy.

Iowa Results and New Hampshire

2016-02-05T17:08:00.000-08:00

The results on Monday night were what I expected. The Evangelicals came out in large numbers to support Cruz. For the third caucus in a row Vander Plaats, has endorsed and worked for the winning candidate. Vander Plaats grassroots groundwork over the last 12 years or so, have been the best thing that Republicans have in Iowa. Interestingly the Libertarians did come out on Monday, but at least enough of them went for Rand Paul, to thwart Trump. Adding Trump and Paul votes together equals his last poll number. Paul out performed in Iowa, but for some strange reason he dropped out of New Hampshire. I would think that the Republican power structure would want him to stay in since he has shown an ability to draw votes away from Trump. Rubio won the mainstream Republican vote and nearly caught Trump. I still think that Rubio will not help the Republicans win in November. He is not one of those talented generational candidates that is needed to run against the stream. The Party really needs to find a talented experienced leader who can pull the party back to the middle. While Rubio could be that guy in 8 or 12 years. He is not that kind of leader now.

In the Democratic race, Sanders and Clinton tied. Much was made in the media first, that Clinton won, then Clinton cheated. However, people are fighting over one or two delegates who to be honest are not going to be determined until the state convention this summer. Sanders and his supporters need to move on, and concentrate on what happens after New Hampshire.

My personal experiences at both my caucus and the ones I visited later that night was pretty typical. on the Democratic caucus I saw very long lines, and to be honest the most Democrats I have ever seen in my neighborhood. My neighborhood is mostly white, blue collar, middle to lower class, with a good proportion of self described rednecks. It has some diversity with Asian, Hispanic, and African Americans. Normally the Democrats would draw 30 to 50 people. Monday night we drew 200. The republicans on the other hand drew around 50-75. Pretty much the reverse of what had happened in the past. I know that both Republicans and Democrats reported record nights for attendance, but it is hard to say how much of that was hype for the press.

Later that night I scooted out to West Des Moines to see some Republican caucuses in action. I found out that the preference poll, or straw poll, is what they were using. Unlike Democrats who were picking delegates, Republicans just sent whoever wanted to go to the country convention without any association to a candidate. What that means is the Republican vote as always was meaningless. However, you could tell that the Rubio people were very organized, and easily won both caucus sites I visited with Trump a distant second at both.

With New Hampshire coming up next I think that it will be Trump and Rubio with Cruz coming third or fourth. New Hampshire is a Libertarian state, but establishment Republicans seem to do well there as well. The Evangelical vote is not like Iowa, and the polls show Cruz sitting third. I think Bush or Kaisitch has a good chance of finishing third. Bernie will win on the Democratic side by a large margin. However, this could be his last hurrah, Clinton has finally shown an ability to win Caucus states, and she is very well organized in all 50 states. Bernie has spent all his time and money in Iowa and New Hampshire. I can't see how he can get past Clinton after Monday night.

Caucus Eve

2016-01-31T09:36:00.000-08:00

As we approach the end of another caucus season in Iowa, it appears as if Trump is sitting back waiting for the results, while Cruz is working the field. Bernie and Hillary are out running around the state trying to build up support, while out in the distance a blizzard is approaching Iowa sometime after the caucus. It should be interesting night. I plan on being at my own precinct early to vote, then move on to a larger caucus to see what is going on. The Democrats traditionally tend to get through the process much quicker than the Republicans, who will fight over platform planks, and other issues before figuring out which delegates they will send to the county convention. This is also the first year that Republicans are sending delegates from the precincts to the county convention. previous years it was a straw poll with no meaning! Yup, that's right the Republican caucus was a beauty pageant until this year.

Another interesting fact to come out of Iowa recently was Trump bailing out of the last debate. This was over a spat he had with Meagan Kelly, and Fox News. Interestingly, the last candidate who led in the polls and refused to attend the last debate in Iowa was Ronald Reagan. Reagan who lead in the polls lost Iowa to George HW Bush. Of course Reagan was back on course in New Hampshire in the next debate when he refused to let John Anderson and a few others join the debate by declaring he had bought the microphone:-) Classic Reagan.

Looking at the last poll to come out of Iowa, Trump leads, but is in the upper 20s about 5 points off where he should be with his libertarian base. Cruz is down in the lower 20s almost 10 points off where his base should be. Rubio at 15 is half of what his base should be. What that says is two things. either the polls are off(most likely considering they were not so great last time around) or there truly are 40% of Republicans undecided going into Monday. If we look at the math about 15% of that 40% is old school Republican, 10% is Evangelical, and 5% is Libertarian. I am kinda of thinking that perhaps Rand Paul will pick up 5%, but the Evangelical will probably go to Cruz. The mystery is the 10% Rubio needs it all, and I doubt he will get it, and I have no clue who will.

On the Democratic side it is the same story that I have talked about for months. Hillary had the better ground game, Bernie caught up. Hillary traditionally doesn't do well in caucus states. Bernie has some people on his side in Iowa who are well equipped to handle the caucus system in Iowa, but he also has a lot of young people, who if like the supporters of Howard Dean, will be easily manipulated at the precincts by the wily veterans of the Clinton campaign. To be honest it is all about the ground game, getting people to the precincts and keeping them together to vote as a block. I hate to leave it on a cliff hanger, but Hillary has yet to prove she can win a caucus ( I think she can) and Bernie hasn't proven yet that he actually knows the inner workings of caucuses to actually win on the Democratic side. It will be an interesting night.

My next post will be after the caucus. I will report what happened at my caucus, and what I saw and heard at some large Republican caucus that I plan to attend. See you after the election.

Coming Down the Strech in Iowa

2016-01-25T19:54:00.000-08:00

Here at ground zero the presidential races are heating up. It has been a crazy caucus season this year, but it is getting intense now. The latest polls show Trump with a ten point lead in Iowa in the Republican primary, and Sanders with a five point lead on the Democratic side.

This is interesting for a couple of reasons. First Trump has the Libertarian vote, and is sitting around 30% which is probably his max. His problem is Libertarians sometimes fail to show up for caucuses. Cruz who has the Evangelical vote, is sitting in the 20s, but should be in the 30s. Evangelicals do show up to caucus. I am betting that Cruz makes up the ground on caucus night. This leaves us with the wild card, and the last third of Iowa's Republican party, which is the rank and file, or old guard Republicans. Brandstadt is the voice of the party in Iowa, and has come out against Cruz, has said a few things favorable of Trump, and pretty much has stayed out of the game. Some outside pundits has suggested that the power structure of the Republican party is starting to embrace Trump. Personally I think that is suicide. If Republicans are so desperate to win that they would back Trump then write them off for good. Trump will not win. He can win in states that are Libertarian, which would be the plains states, and possibly the South, but he would loose the Midwest and both coasts. Looking at polling it seems that Marco Rubio is going to be, at least in Iowa, the choice of the money men, and power brokers. Understand that the power of the mainstream Republican party has weaken considerably. They lost control of the party with the rise of the Tea Party and Ron Paul supporters had gained key positions in the party. However, bringing Terry Brandstadt out of mothballs helped to get most of the power structure back under control of the elites. It is still a equal sum game between all three groups of the power structure of the Republican party of Iowa, but if the old guard doesn't unite under Rubio, then it all comes down to if the Libertarians show up in large numbers to beat Cruz.

On the Democratic side it will come down to who has the best ground game. Early on Clinton seemed to have the election sown up in Iowa, but the Sanders people have really come on late. Yet, I wonder just how well they can work the caucuses. They certainly have the grassroots, but I am beginning to wonder just how well organized they are on the precinct level. getting people to the caucus is half the battle. Organizing them to stay together and vote as a block is another. Obviously Clinton's biggest weakness eight years ago were the caucus states. I would hope that her campaign has improved upon their organizational skills. Caucus night will prove if they have fixed the flaws from eight years ago, or if they are just repeating the failures of the past.

Tumps Slumps in Iowa, Cruz rises to the Top, and People Feel the Bern.

2016-01-11T19:25:00.000-08:00

Bob Vander Plaats is a kingmaker in Iowa. Many weeks ago I talked about how the Christian right had not really picked a candidate. Vander Plaats, who has the support of the Christian right for the last two caucuses, endorsed the candidate that eventually won Iowa on caucus night. This year he has endorsed Ted Cruz. Cruz immediately rose to the top of the polls and has pretty much held on to the lead in Iowa ever since. Trump of course has taken to attacking Cruz, but it is a waste of time. The supporters of Cruz are not nor were they ever Trump supporters. Trump is getting the Libertarian right, which in the previous election supported Ron Paul. (this also is why Rand Paul is not doing good in Iowa as his father) while those numbers are close. I think that the Christian right is still the power brokers in Iowa. So perhaps the big question is who comes in third with the support of the mainstream Republican Party. While Iowa does have an almost equal thirds of political strength, the Republican leadership has been very quiet during this election. four years ago they backed Romney, and gave him the win even though Rick Santorum actually won the state. This year though they have been fairly absent. It did look like some of the money men were promoting Christie, but his numbers have never really moved up. Rubio apparently is picking up some support and may well end up third, but his problems nationwide are obvious. He is young, inexperienced, really doesn't want to be a Senator, and generally is trying to appeal to the adults in the room, as hey I'm not as bad as Trump, Cruz, or Bush. Granted Bush is probably the guy who could save the party, but he has run a terrible campaign. At least as far as Iowa goes, Cruz will probably win the caucus. It is hard to see him winning the nomination. However, a good run through the South could put him in control come summer.

With the circus that is the Republican Party, everyone has missed the return of Bernie Sanders in Iowa. Sanders who most pundits had written off in Iowa is now only a few points behind Clinton. He leads in New Hampshire, and his organization in Iowa has shored itself up considerably. winning in Iowa is all about getting people to the caucus, and getting them to stay together and to vote as blocks. To have enough people at each precinct to be a viable candidate and to get delegates to the county convention. The Clinton people had trouble in the caucus states eight years ago, and it appears they might be having trouble again in Iowa . It will be an interesting caucus night especially if Bernie wins.

Please Take Your Party Back!

2015-11-16T19:46:00.000-08:00

I think a lot of sane people are wondering when the Republican party will wake up. Certainly the unhinged crowd of Limbaugh, and O'Reilly had pushed the bulk of the party if not the nation to the right, especially since 2000. However, starting in 2008 with the nomination of Sarah Palin as VP, the Republican party has lost all semblance of rationality. I used to think that the party of Lincoln was just playing the racist and fascist fringe for votes, but once in office they would moderate at least slightly to govern. Now they just let their freak flag fly. It is as if they don't care anymore. Granted a lot of moderate and career politicians in the Republican party have been jettisoned, but this presidential season is insane. When Trump, and Carson lead in the polls, and the great hope of the middle is Marco Rubio then you know you are in trouble.

It is interesting that over the last eight years many people have expected the end of the Republican party, that they will become a rump party, or just disappear from existence. Certainly long term their strategy will lead to total failure. Yet, they have a stranglehold on state legislatures, as well as house districts due to gerrymandering and especially their successful midterm of 2010. (census is taken every ten years, so winning those elections are crucial long term) If you look at the demographics of the US, white voters will be a majority minority within 15 years. What that means is today whites outnumber people of color. sometime in the next 15 to 20 years people of color will out number whites, but whites will still be the largest ethnic group. (of course the bigger question is what is white? what percentage of white counts as white? can you be 3/4 white and be consider white???? does a drop of blood of color make you non white? To be honest if you look at Supreme court history these questions have come up and the answers will shock you)

The big question is, are Republicans even relevant today? If Trump or Carson wins the nomination then the answer is no. Neither one should even be considered a serious candidate for president. Even the worse career politician in the Republican primary now is better than the pending electoral defeat should Trump or Carson win the nomination. I would even predict that you could have a disaster of such a magnitude that they would bring destruction not only to their party, but to the media complex that built them.

I really think that the powers that run the Republican party must realize that for long term success they really need to jettison the worse of their party. I have written this many times over the last eight years on this blog that back in 1964 Johnson with the signing of the Civil Rights bills pushed out the worse elements of the Democratic party. They were the southern Democrats who had ruled the South since the end of Reconstruction. Furthermore, the anti government left was purged through out most of the 70s and 80s. Leaving a moderate left party. The Republican however, have embraced the South, and most anti government left have become Libertarians and decidedly anti government right. This may have helped people like Karl Rove build large Republican majorities in the South and through the Prairie and Plains states, but it also has led to purity tests which have purged the best elements of the Republican party. I would think that long term thinking Republicans must believe that at some point they need to purge their party of their worst elements, because the alternative is to drag everyone else down to their level, and as much as those of us here in America love to follow, we also have this eventually self preservation mechanism that keeps us from going off the edge.

Let us look at the past two parties the Federalist, and the Whigs, who dissolved in American history. The Federalist at one point ran the country. While Washington was against political parties, certainly by his second term he had accepted political reality and was a Federalist. Yet, power seemed to corrupt John Adams, and the Federalist became out of touch with everyday Americans. However even after their defeat in 1800 by Jefferson and the Democrats, The Federalist were still a party but by the War of 1812, they were done. They were so out of step that while trying to be an anti war party, their Hartford Convention came across anti American and out of touch especially given that the war was over by the time people knew about it. This led to the Era of Good Tidings, one party rule, and the Monroe presidency. However, all good things must end and eventually the Democrats split between those who supported John Quincy Adams, and those who support Andrew Jackson. Eventually this would lead to the formation of the Whig party. The Whigs served their purpose as a foil for the Democrats but they also had a fatal flaw, and that was slavery. Southern Whigs were plantation owners and pro slavery, Northern Whigs were abolitionists. the enviable split led to the eventual birth of the Republican party. (Granted this is way to short to cover the demise of a dominate political party, but I hope it shows that it can happen)

So the question is what will happen to the Republican party if they don't control the Trump/Carson/Tea Party base. I would think that what happens in Kansas during the next presidential election could bring answers to that question. They are in the middle of Tea Party rule, and it has been a disaster. Granted Democrats in Kansas seem hard pressed to find quality candidates to run for office. Although they have done it in the past Kathleen Sabelius certainly was a high quality candidate and perhaps the biggest mistake Democrats made was pulling her out of Kansas to Washington to be in the Obama cabinet. The Tea Party and Governor Samuel Brownback have incredibly low poll ratings, and the future looks very grim in Kansas as Tax Cuts, off set with spending cuts have killed economic growth and destroyed one of the best education states in the country. If the Kansas Tea Party is overthrown completely election night, then it would be lights out for the Republican party.

Of course this will only happen if the Republican party can't control itself and nominate someone who at least has enough political experience to govern. Looking at current Republicans that would include Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham, Chris Christie, and George Pataki, granted to the extreme right these men are moderates, or liberals, but to sane people these are Reagan Republicans. Trust me they are conservatives, they are right wing, but they also understand that America and Democracy are run by working together not apart. Lets hope the Republicans wake up and take back their party.

Carson, Tump, and ????

2015-11-08T10:48:00.000-08:00

So Carson, who has come back to earth (in more ways than one) is either sharing the lead in Iowa, or a close second Trump. The media as always waits until someone is in the lead, (or a boosted to at least third) before the media looks at them. with Carson it was predictably ugly. It is not that Carson has said anything differently than he has over the last few years. It is that the media finally decided to pay attention to him that brought up all the crazy ideas. Bottom line is that Trump and Carson are bad for the Republican party. This is not a question of winning and loosing, but a question of government. Having good government could be small, or big, but not having a functioning government is bad for business. (That is why Jesse Ventura, or Arnold Schwarzenegger are still governors) I trust that the money bags will figure this out soon. Perhaps after Iowa, and New Hampshire. Yet, I am not sure who they would back. The Trump circus has destroyed Bush, who would have been the most favorable to business. Rubio, while young and pliable, would if he won be a one term president, or at worst similar to George W Bush. Someone who would allows his handlers to run the country and be the figure head. Christie still looks interesting, and if his Iowa backers actually bring in the money could make caucus night interesting. Furthermore, the rules of the Republican caucus night have changed. It is not a preference poll that means nothing, but actually delegates will be accrued. It is not clear though if the Democratic style grassroots organizing is going to win the day for the Republicans.

On the Democratic side Hillary is running away with it. In Iowa on the Democratic side it is all about organization, getting your people to the precincts, and having precinct captain who know how to wrangle delegates from other campaigns. I just want to send a warning to kids going to caucus for Bernie make sure you have enough delegates to be viable at each precinct or you will end up going home with nothing, becoming a uncommitted, or Hillary delegate.

Cha cha cha changes!!

2015-10-26T16:30:00.000-07:00

I hinted last post about big money trying to save the Iowa Republican caucus system by backing one of the professional politicians, but first big changes on the ground here in Iowa. Trump has led in the polls pretty much since he announced. Scott Walker had led before him for most of the spring. So only two people had led in Iowa since they started polls for 2016. Now Dr. Ben Carsons has vaulted to the lead with two polls showing him ahead by more than 6 points. I am not sure what this means long term. In the previous campaign it was a revolving door at the top until finally Romney sort of, but not really won on caucus night. It is interesting that Carson seems to have won over conservative women in large enough numbers to have overtaken Donald Trump. Carson, like Trump is a political outsider, who has made his name in Republican politics by being a pundit on Fox News, and conservative talk radio. Women see him as kind and gentle, and his appeal is definitely only among conservative women. His policies are seen by liberal women as being anti women and anyone who sees Carson as the answer for the gender gap with women voters are delusional.

The news from last week was that several Republican heavy hitters with big wallets had decided to put their money with one candidate and had a big roll out for him at the Historical Building in Des Moines. They put their money with Chris Christie with the hope that he could appeal to the libertarian and old guard Republicans. This is much like what happened in Iowa when they got Terry Brandstad out of moth balls to run against Bill Vanderplaats. There was fear among the old guard that Vanderplaats couldn't win against the Democrat since he was a very polarizing figure. This is the same problem that Trump, and Carson face nationally as well. Chris Christie probably has the best chance of beating the Democratic challenger. However, his numbers are still in single digits, and it remains to be seen if he even has a workable grassroots organization in Iowa. You need that if you want to win in Iowa, or have the backing of the Religious right, or the Libertarian right to win on caucus night.

It is still early on the Republican side. However, on the Democratic side it looks like Hillary Clinton will win. Organization is everything in Iowa, and having strong precinct captains who can sway undecided and unviable candidate voters to your side is very important. Clinton has a machine in Iowa, that Bernie Sanders does not. Plus Martin O'Malley has little to no infrastructure in Iowa. O'Malley and Sanders will have better luck in the primary states where ground work is important, but having campaign officials in each precinct will not.

Trump Trump Trump!!!!!!

2015-10-08T18:54:00.001-07:00

So here in Iowa Trump is still king. Yup since my last post the men with experience have fallen from favor and are in the single digits. While Trump, Carsons, and Fiorina, have surged ahead. It is interesting that this is going on. looking at poll numbers it really shouldn't add up. The anti government right is mostly Tea Party/ Libertarians on a good day they make up 1/3 of the Iowa Republican party. However, the latest polls show Trump and Carsons in a near dead heat with nearly 50% of the vote. Add in Fiorina and they are over 50%.

The Iowa Republican party is divided three ways. The old guard represented by Terry Brandstadt. The Libertarian right who backed Ron Paul in the previous election, and the Religious right who are led by Bob Vander Plaats. In the previous presidential caucus in Iowa. Romney, Paul, and Santorum all claimed victory at some point. This actually makes sense because of the equal divide in Iowa. These new polls numbers though just don't add up. Granted some of Trump, Carson and Fiorina's success is due to their numerous appearances on Fox news, and other TV related experiences. In many ways this is more do to name recognition. however, it could also be due to a ground swell of anger on the far right. They have been told for the last 6+ years that Obama is evil, bad, incompetent, big government, fascist, communists, Kenyan, socialists, peacenick, gun taker, and unfit for office due to his race, party, and fill in the blank.

I would think that if they truly believe the rhetoric, then they would be so upset with the standard politicians, that an celebrity like Trump, Carsons, or Fiorina, who tell the public what they want to hear, might just be someone to vote for. It is October 8th and the three non politicians are leading in the race. In my next post I will explain how the Iowa Republican party is finally going on the offensive and actually picking a horse to run against the non politicians.

THEIR HERE!!!

2015-05-03T09:24:00.002-07:00

Meanwhile back at the ranch...... When we last left Obama and Romney they had finished up their first debate. It was the highlight of Romney's campaign. Using the celebrated Gish Gallup, (see previous post) he had really knocked Obama for a loop. However, as I predicted the next debate, which was a town hall style event went to Obama. After that, another debate, and Obama won re-election. I suppose you wondered what happened to me, but I went through a crisis of my own. Lost job, lost income, moving several times, and a mountain of debt. Pretty ugly times for me, and as a country, while things seemed better, they also seemed worse. Everyone is in some form of debt, or loosing their houses, and cars. While employment has dropped, it is more due to people like myself with multiple part time and temporary jobs. While others have just given up on trying. It seems the older you are the more likely you find yourself out of the job market. It is an economy about bean counting, and making sure the 1% doesn't suffer, so the poor are stuck with low paying jobs, and inflated prices. For a brief moment I thought dropping gas prices, would lower prices on food, but while it gave me more money in my pocket, there seemed to be no effect on food prices. So we are all struggling here in Iowa, and here come the Republican party cast of survivor to see who can survive the primaries and get a shot at the presidency. I am sure glad that for the next several months I can hear this great brain trust blame me and the rest of the working poor. That we don't work hard enough, or we play the system with government assistance. Its all those damn welfare queens, driving their welfare Cadillac, or my favorite quote I heard on the radio the other day of the army of men in the inner city who don't even look for work! Hmmm, sounds a little racist to me.
So this is the third election campaign that I am blogging. As you know I concentrate mostly on Iowa because I live here. Mostly this blog will be about the Republican primary, but if Bernie Sanders, or someone else can make some traction against Hillery then maybe we will talk about Democrats too. Keep your eye out new posts.

Romney's Gish Gallup to Victory

2012-10-04T20:23:00.000-07:00

Romney obviously had good debate training from some creationists because he used the classic Gish Gallup against Obama in last night debate. The Gish Gallup is a technique created by creationist Duane Gish, where, he would overwhelm his opponents with a mountain of BS, so much that you can't fight it all, so you pick and choose your battle. Unfortunately, no matter what you do you come off as the looser. You look like you don't know the issues, and come off as unprepared. What is interesting is that the media pundits, especially from the left think it is easy to defeat the Gish Gallup. It's not. John Stewart tonight went off on Obama for loosing the debate.

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However, lets watch John trying to handle the Gish Gallup with his interview with David Barton.

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Not so easy is it John. Barton owned Stewart, and it was ugly. Funny thing, is everyone thought Stewart would own Barton before the show. I even remember the reaction on some Skeptic blogs the next day on how Stewart got his clocked clean. The reality is that it wasn't his fault. The only way to beat the Gish Gallup is to not get in a position where it can be used against you.

The next debate is a town hall set up. This will work against Romney since he will have to answer questions from the public. They will want straight answers, and there is no way Romney can spew a bunch of nonsense and get by. Furthermore, Obama needs to keep his cool. This is his format, and he will win.

Win, Win, Situation for Extremism

2012-09-16T21:19:00.002-07:00

Much has been made of the responses of Romney, and Obama towards the uproar in the Middle East over the basically amateur movie made in California to discredit Islam. The problem is that the far right fundamentalist of all religious faiths have won with this one. Irregardless of how or why Romney responded, or if Obama is soft or hard on terrorism misses the big point. The big point is that extremist on all side continue win in this ridiculous holy war. First the movie itself, is poorly made trash. The first few minutes was the bulk of their budget. After that the movie is made with a green screen, and a bad one at that. I have made I-movies better than this crap. The people involved had one thing in mind to spew their hate towards Islam. Odds are good that it wouldn't have had much of an impact, if it hadn't played on TV in Egypt. Now why in the world would a TV station plays such terrible crap and think that the US sponsored it. Not exactly truth in journalism. From there more and more people reacted against it. Quite possibly the attack on the Libyan embassy was just bad timing. People protesting the movie coinciding with 9-11, and a possible terror attack at the same time. Add to that Romney getting ahead of the story, and you can see how bad his week went.

However, the right wing fundies are winning the battle. The far right Christians and Jews get to point fingers and say see Islam is not the religion of peace, while the fundamentalist Muslims can point to the evil Americans putting down their religion. The holy war mentality just grows and grows. At some point in the near future Israel will attack Iran, and then watch the Middle East go up in flames. The problem is that all side think that the end times are near. All sides think that God is on their side. All sides think that either the Messiah, or Jesus is coming back to fight on the side of good. The far right Jews want a build the temple to bring back the Messiah. The far right Christians want to build the temple because the Messiah is actually the anti Christ, and when he shows up Jesus shows up. Finally, guess what Islam also believes that at the end of times Jesus(not God, but prophet) comes back at the end times, and kills the infidels.

If that doesn't scare you, then you aren't paying attention. Everyone is willing to recognize the evil in fundamentalism as long as it doesn't have ties to you. In other words, in America we look the other way when the Christian or Jewish extremists speak, but if it is a Muslim extremist say hello to Gitmo. In the Middle East it is just opposite extremists in Islam are OK, but if you are a Christian or Jew watch out.

I thought that once we passed 2000 the extremists would go away, but they have just gotten crazier. At some point moderate and liberal religious leaders need to stop bowing down to the extreme voices and speak up for peace. They have conceded God, Yahweh, and Allah to the most extreme and loudest of their people. Unless people of faith do something to reign in their worst aspects there will be no peace, or justice in the world.

Democratic Convention 2012

2012-09-09T19:47:00.000-07:00

Unlike the Republican convention the previous week, which put people to sleep. The Democratic convention lit a fire under its party, and has given Obama a bounce in the polls. At this time it is anything from 5 to 8 point bounce compared to Romney's no bounce. The Democrats had a well planned convention. Each night had amazing speakers who thrilled the audience, and left the far right pundits searching for anything negative to talk about. The first night all Fox news could talk about was the lack of the word God in the Democrats platform, and the fact that the platform didn't mention Jerusalem either. Obama fixed it by morning, and then the Fox group flaunted their power:-) Pretty sad for a news organization MAKING NEWS! Then the talk of the right was the fact that the Democrats were moving the final day of the convention indoors. The right said it was because Obama couldn't fill the stadium. The Democrats said it was for safety issues due to storms. Regardless of the truth the far right kept it up for the rest of the week. The last meme from the convention from the right was that Obama delivered a weak speech. Of all the memes they tried to sell this one actually made it to the mainstream media. I thought it was a good speech, but I think that the mainstream media is so desperate to appear fair they sometimes allow the right to make the script. Also it is interesting that there was little to fact check on the Democratic side, but in order of fairness many people looked and found some small remarks usually made by early speakers not on prime time.

It is interesting that the Romney people made the mistake of saying today that they think Obama has the upper hand in this election. Certainly from an electoral college perspective Obama has a good strong lead. He would have to loose around 6 swing states to loose, and he is leading strongly in most of them. The only wildcard I can see is voter turnout in states where voter ID laws are still legal. Obama will need to win those areas by large margins, because if they are close he will loose.

Republican Convention

2012-09-01T21:01:00.000-07:00

One would think that the Republican Convention would be the opportunity to show off Mitt Romney, and give him the typical bump in the poles that the convention give you. However, you would be wrong. You would also be wrong thinking that the Republican party is excited about Romney. If they are excited about anything it is beating Obama. Much like the Democrats in 2004 who were more interested in beating Bush, instead of loving Kerry, the Republicans will come up short in November.

It is obvious that speakers like Chris Christie, and Mark Rubio were more interested in promoting themselves for 2016, then talking about Romney. Even vice presidential pick Paul Ryan spent more time talking about himself, and not his running mate Romney. Then there was the debacle of the last day when Clint Eastwood gave his impromptu speech to a chair. Had the speech been earlier in the night, and not on prime-time it is possible that no one would have talked about it, but kicking off the last nights telecast was pure disaster.

Furthermore, the dishonesty of the speakers in regards to Obama's record will not help with the few undecided voters still available. Add to that the Hurricane, the disaster of Todd Akin, and Rove's murder threat (obviously a bad joke) to Akin and one will understand the disaster that Romney faced this week.

This is has been a pattern with Romney. His campaign has failed to stay on topic, has way to many people speaking on his behalf off topic, and generally ran a disastrous campaign. While the general election polls show a close race the electoral college shows a large lead for Obama, and Romney needs to run a perfect campaign. He hasn't.

What The F?????

2012-02-12T19:48:00.000-08:00

You go away for a few weeks and things go crazy. Mitt Romney had just won Florida and the pundits said it was all over. Unfortunately I think Mitt agreed. As Santorum ran the tables in Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado. Of course, Karl Rove giggled that Santorum hadn't won any delegates so it really didn't matter. Rove is an odd one, but since he is the real money and power of the Republican party it is probably safe to say that the old boys network doesn't want Santorum. However, yesterday was even more interesting. Romney barely won in Maine, edging out Ron Paul by 3% points. As the night went on, and into today, many of the Paul supporters are crying foul, and Romney's win is looking even less of a win that yesterday. All of this bodes good for Obama. Romney is not wanted by the base, and they are destroying Romney before he can even get the nomination. There really is no parallel to this in American politics. I suppose 68 and the lefts hatred of Humphrey, but 68 had the death of Bobby Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy's anti war coalition. Not this self destructive hate that seems to permeate the right. Certainly the left had bomb throwers in the 60s like the Weather Underground, but those hate groups disappeared in the 80s. The right has taken up the mantle of any means necessary, and it scares the voting public. If the right continues this attack on Romney, and the establishment doesn't control its fringe elements, then Obama will win in a landslide next November.

The Establishment Rescuse Romney

2012-01-29T19:42:00.000-08:00

With Newt's stunning victory last in South Carolina things looked bleak for Romney. Newt even took a good size lead in some polls in Florida. However, since then the establishment is coming through and Newt is getting hammered on both sides. However, what is really unreported is the lack of power of the Christian right. Santorum has their blessings, or at least the leadership, yet he still can't get over 20% in the polls. What worked for him in Iowa was being here and laying the ground work. Obviously their isn't enough time to do that in the other states, and it is costing him. Romney is the only one with the organization in all states to do battle. Romney looks to have Florida wrapped up. Paul has already moved off to the caucus states. Gingrich and Santourum should probably do the same. Otherwise Romney will win the nomination.

Why The Iowa Republcian Caucus Dosen't Matter

2012-01-19T18:17:00.000-08:00

Much has been said today about the Iowa Caucus. It really isn't a lot of news. First the Republican Caucus is a straw poll. That is all it is. It doesn't really count. Delegates that go on to the convention are the ones that count and when they get to Des Moines this summer they are going to unanimously vote for the winner of the Republican primaries. So lets say that Newt pulls out the election. He won 16% of the Iowa Republican vote. However, if he is the nominee he will get 100% of the delegates! In other words the Iowa Caucus is MEANINGLESS. So if Santourum winning by 28 or loosing by 8 doesn't matter.

The Democrats run their caucus differently. They meet and the supporters of each candidate get into groups. Each precinct is allow so many delegates. You have to have a certain percentage to gain a delegate. If you don't have enough people at the precinct then they have to choose another candidate. This is always interesting because it is not the politicians who convince you to join a group it is your neighbors. It is a fairly friendly conversation between neighbors, and people usually come in with a second choice, especially if they feel their candidate might not be viable. The people who become delegates go to the county, district, and finally the state convention. If you can hold your delegates you can win. However, much like the Republicans, by the time the state convention happens, a nominee is already chosen, and all the delegates generally vote for the eventual nominee.

Obviously, on local talk radio, many on the right are angry. I would suggest to them to do what the Democrats do and scrap the straw poll. Make it count, make the process work, and the results may eventually end up the same, but people will feel like their vote actually matters.

Romney Still Leads In South Carolina

2012-01-15T18:04:00.000-08:00

We are only a couple weeks from Iowa, and already the pundits are calling the Republican primary for Romney. It is interesting that a poll a few days ago showed Newt within a couple points, but then the next day another poll had Romney way out in front again. The fundamentalists had a big meeting in Texas to give Santorum their support, while the remains of the Tea Party are mostly backing Paul. Paul is probably the most interesting candidate. Third in Iowa, and Second in New Hampshire, and yet the media still ignores him. It is interesting, because any of the other candidates winning that large would get a lot of press. It is also interesting that Romney is getting the Al Gore treatment. Anyone who remembers way back to the 2000 race, will remember how Gore was treated by the press. It was less about Gore's ideas and more about his perceived weakness, and lies. Romney is now getting the Gore treatment and it is very entertaining. More coverage is about Romney's hair, treatment of his dog years ago, and his gaffs.

Of course the race for the Republican nomination is really about three ideologies. The old guard, who want Romney, the Libertarian. Austrian Economics loving Tea Party for Paul, and the Christian fundamentalists who want Santorum. It is looking like the media is right that Romney will probably prevail, but the question is will the other two groups show up in November to vote for Romney, or will they stay home.

New Hampshire

2012-01-08T19:19:00.000-08:00

As the candidates leave Iowa. We here in Iowa are breathing a great sigh of relief. It is nice to have Iowa back:-) With all the media attention, and false narratives about Iowans, it is good to finally have all the crazy folks out of here. Of course the media attention and the false narratives brought about this awesome viral video

So now New Hampshire has to deal with the craziness. I am sure they can handle it:-) It looks like Romney will win New Hampshire big, and whoever gets second might be taken seriously as the Anti Mitt, until South Carolina. If Romney wins there it is all over. The media seems to sense this and is reporting it as such. Of course New Hampshire has surprised people in the past several times. We certainly will know more after the primary.

The Finish Line

2011-12-30T20:56:00.000-08:00

I was going to explain the Caucus this weekend, but I realized that the Republican caucus is not like the Democratic caucus. The Democrats have a thing called viability, which makes the caucus interesting. In other words, if a candidate doesn't have enough supporters at the caucus they are not viable, and their supporters need to caucus with someone else. However, the Republicans have a non-binding straw poll. So what does that mean? It means that whoever wins Iowa Tuesday night, will probably not win the delegates by the time the convention happens this summer. What happens at both the Democratic and Republican caucuses is that delegates are chosen to go to the country convention, then from the country is a district convention and finally the state convention. During that process is a winnowing of the field. Also as the primaries continue it is very possible that people who were dedicated to who in Iowa in February will have dropped out by the time the next conventions happen. Instead of being stuck with a loosing candidate people continue to vote so that by the time of the state convention invariably the candidate who is leading going into the convention has all the Iowa delegates.

With the end near, Ron Paul looks strong, but some nasty robo calls have come around at the last second trying to get the evangelicals supporting Paul to choose someone else. I assume that Paul and Romney will get 20% and Santorum who is now up to 15% may actually pull this one out. The Evangelicals are trying to get everyone behind Santorum, instead of Bachman, or Perry. It will be interesting to see if they can pull it off. The real interesting news in Iowa is that Bob Vander Plaats, may have offered his endorsement for 1 million dollars. That could be bad news if it is true. I think it is unlikely that Santorum had that kind of money, so it probably won't effect him.

It should be an interesting weekend. Stay tuned.

Paul Surges Ahead

2011-12-26T18:10:00.000-08:00

Here in Iowa, or ground zero as I like to put it. Ron Paul has surged ahead. Of course, the national media has looked the other way concerning Paul. In fact, Fox is saying that if you finish fourth in Iowa you could still win. However, historically third or better is what has really happened with results from Iowa. Paul is being hit with the front runner scrutiny. It always amazes me how the media can only concentrate on one candidate at a time. They had months to vet Paul, and yet ignored him. While many independents once they know Paul's ideas about the economy, and his racist past, his poll numbers will drop back a little. However, most of his support is solid. They are old Perot voters, economic tea party folk, and old time Birchers. They will show up Caucus night and they will get Perot Iowa. Romney looks good for second or third, but the surprise of the night could be Santorum. The religious right is slowly sided towards him. They probably would have preferred Bachman or Perry, but Santorum is picking up the momentum. He has lived in the state for months. He has the support of Bob Vanderplots, who helped the far right vote out three supreme court justices in Iowa. If Santorums momentum continues to coalesce it is quite possible he could move into second, or first. It is interesting but of the three candidates, Paul, Romney, and Santorum. All have ground game in the state and that is what counts. Later this week I will write a post about the Caucus system, and why having people on the ground is important in Iowa. With time running out it looks like people are finally sticking with some choices and it will be interesting to see the results.

Will It Be Newt?

2011-12-11T20:09:00.001-08:00

The pundits seem to think that Iowa is Newts to win. The polls seem to be in the guys favor, but if he wins he will be rewriting caucus history in Iowa. To win Iowa you need to have an organization that will get voters to the caucus. Newt can not count on the establishment in Iowa since they are firmly with Romney. The Evangelical voters seem to still be split among all the social conservatives including Newt. As I have pointed out before Ron Paul still has the most passion among his supporters. Even though it is said that Bachmann has the strongest ground game now. I think Newt will be lucky to come in third in Iowa. Romney's support is probably underestimated because the establishment will be out on caucus night. I am thinking a strong second for him. If Bachmann has the strongest ground game she could end up top three. Ron Paul still looks like the upset kid. His followers are angry and fired up to show up on caucus night.

What I find interesting about the current Republican party is that they look more like a third party, than an establishment party. No matter how passionate they might be about their ideology, they have moved so far from the mainstream that they are in real danger of putting themselves out of business for years. Looking back in history it is hard to find a parallel in American history to what is going on in the Republican party. Certainly the myth that Liberalism took over and destroyed the Democratic party in the 70s, could be an interesting comparison if it was true. However, a truer tale of the Democrats of the 70s was an battle among the left, and the center of the party, which really started in 1965, and in many ways continues today. The Republican allowed the right to take it over without a fight. In many ways as the Democrats center and left fought the conservatives moved from the Democrats to the Republicans. The Republicans welcome them as they gained power through out the 80s and 90s. However, the establishment who controlled the right for most of that time, has lost control, and now the party has moved so far to the right that a true moderate like Obama becomes a socialist in their eyes. It is always fun to listen to the far right rant about Obama. They have no clue that the left hates Obama as much as they do.

It should be an interesting general election. Obama is still the grown up in the room. The left may hate him and stay home, but the right will hate Romney and stay home. If Newt should win, it will be interesting to see if the right shows up or if it will matter, because the Independents will go for Obama. Ron Paul is the wild card. He is incredibly unelectable, and the far right will stay at home in droves, but a lot of Independents will vote for him because of his Libertarian appeal. However, his economic ideas are bonkers and if applied would ruin the country faster than the Republicans or Democrats could do in generations. With three weeks to go till the first Iowa caucus it going to be interesting.

Newt! Newt! Newt??? I bet it is Paul!

2011-11-30T19:26:00.001-08:00

Here in the middle of what was cornfields, and soybeans in Iowa. We are hunkering down for winter, and looking forward to the caucus. The media is all excited about Newt Gingrich. Newt is the latest to surge in the polls, but once again they are missing out on what is happening on the ground in Iowa. Newt has nothing here, and he will be lucky if his people show up on caucus night. None of the candidates who surged in the polls in Iowa, with the exception of Michelle Bachman has a ground game here in the state. Looking at the latest polls, the Iowa Caucus may have a surprise for everyone. Ron Paul is looking better and better. He is very organized in Iowa, and his small group of highly dedicated fans is building a strong organization in Iowa. Ron Paul looks like a lock for second, and quite possible could win the caucus especially if the religious right splits it votes between Bachman, Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich. Romney really has a problem here in Iowa. He could win it, but he really needs to stay away and hope that the establishment Republicans show up on caucus night. If Romney spends additional money here in Iowa to win it, and comes in second it would be devastating to his campaign. He has talked about spending more time and money in Iowa, but he really needs to stay away and take his free 20-25% of the vote and call it a win. That said the man with the best ground game is still Ron Paul. As the caucus gets closer and closer, and the evangelicals continue to argue over who to support Ron Paul keeps building support and improving his organization in Iowa. Paul has been here before, and knows what it takes to win in Iowa. He may just surprise the media who has ignored him from day one.