RetailSails Blog

Friday Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Fri, 24 May 2013 14:54:00 +0000

A relatively short reading list this Friday...enjoy the long holiday weekend!

Study Says Retailers Often Underutilize Customer Data (AT Kearney)
Retail Therapy: One In Three Recently Stressed Americans Shops To Deal With Anxiety (HuffPost)
Mobile influences 45% of in-store purchases (Mobile Commerce Daily)
Infographic: How does same-day fulfillment work? (Shop.org)
Wal-Mart Puts Its Faith in Big Data for Mobile Strategy (CNBC) and Wal-Mart Plasters Stores With Green Dots to Stay Stocked (Bloomberg)
Luxury brands position for U.S. boom (Reuters)
Hidden in Plain Sight, Tiny Mall Kiosks Make a Surprisingly Big Impact (NY Times)
The Consumer Psychology Behind Warby Parker’s $95 Pricing for Eyeglasses (Time)
Shopping represents 45% of U.S. miles traveled (mnn)
E-Commerce Trend Tracker: A Look At How People Shop Online (Shopzilla)
Google Follows Amazon's Lead on New Shopping Site, Delivery, Other Services (WSJ)
More Hispanic shoppers use mobile than general market shoppers (Chain Store Age)
Retail on the Rebound: Spirits High at ICSC Event (Commercial Observer)

Friday's Retail Quick Fact: Kate Spade increased sales per square foot from $631 in 2007 to $1,016 in 2012; total brand revenues jumped more than five-fold over that period, from $90 million to $462 million.

Unfortunately for Fifth & Pacific, its other 2 brands didn't fare as well over the past 5 years: Sales per sq ft at Juicy Couture declined from $1,158 to $685 and total brand sales were roughly flat, and sales per sq ft at Lucky Brand fell from $587 to $440, with total brand sales growing by just 1.8% annually.

Google Copies Amazon's Playbook (WSJ)

Thursday's Top Retail & Consumer Reads

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Thu, 23 May 2013 14:42:00 +0000

For Woodbury Common Outlets, an overdue makeover (NY Times)
Mobile Becoming Moms' Daily Shopping Companion (eMarketer)
Death of the Salesmen: Technology's Threat to Retail Jobs (The Atlantic)
The Rise of Virtual Brick-and-Mortars (HBR)
Exhuming JC Penney’s Failed Marketing Makeover For Leadership Lessons We Can All Use (FastCo)
Deal seeking cemented as path-to-purchase behavior for all shoppers (Parago)
Tablets Overtake Smartphones as the Big Shopping Device (Adweek)
There’s No Place Like the Mall: The State of the U.S. Shopping Center (Nielsen)
Social commerce is like a unicorn: beautiful, alluring, and almost totally imaginary (VentureBeat)
The Future of Retail: Flagship Stores (POPAI)
Ups and downs of global brands: Consumers luxuriate in shopping on the web (FT)
How Mobile Coupons Are Driving An Explosion In Mobile Commerce (Business Insider)
Abercrombie Execs Troubled By Involvement Of CEO's Partner (BuzzFeed)
Forget ‘Showrooming’: 77% of Mobile Retail Shoppers Buy In-Store (StreetFight)
Why Warby Parker Opened a Retail Store (Inc.)
Are Pop-up Stores Here to Stay? (Knowledge@Wharton)
KKR Said to Weigh Push for Saks-Neiman U.S. Retail Merger (Bloomberg) and Saks, Neiman: A Possible Fit? (WSJ) and Saks is improving as a retailer, but real estate is its crown jewel (Quartz)
The Top Luxury Fashion Brands on Pinterest (Mashable)
Wal-Mart exec: Mobile can revive personal shopping touch (CNET)
High-Tech Shopping: Meet the Future of Retail (LAPTOP)
Hispanic Malls' Drawing Crowds by Being Culturally in Tune (AdAge)

Tuesday's BIG Retail Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Tue, 21 May 2013 14:13:00 +0000

Ranking of world's top 100 most valuable brands (BrandZ)
Don’t Overlook Baby Boomers: America’s Greatest Shopper Generation (POPAI)
Jenna Lyons Reveals The Secrets To Becoming A J.Crew Collaborator (FastCo)
Do Americans really care how their clothes are made? (Washington Post)
Retailers Turn 'Showrooming' Into Innovation Opportunity (Mashable)
Following Wal-Mart's lead, Target goes hunting for start-ups in Silicon Valley (Reuters) and Target Experiments with New Multichannel Services Post Amazon (WSJ)
We’ve entered the age of emotional, design-centric e-commerce (GigaOM)
Mall shoppers cite "more experiences" as reason to shop more often (Glimcher)
Turning clicks into bricks...and dollars: Online retailers harness data and seek a 'physical' presence (MarketWatch)
The 11 Most Tech-Savvy Darlings Of Online Retail (Business Insider)
Best Buy Finds Value in Real Estate Over Retail (Businessweek)
High-tech meets low-tech as new Chinese consumers embrace online shopping (Fortune)
How Amazon and the strengthening economy are threatening the once-invincible retail giant Walmart (Slate)
World's Retail & Shopping Hot Spots (Vogue)
Google Admits Defeat In Its 7-Year Battle With Amazon And PayPal (ReadWrite)
Pinterest Pins Will Promote Product Pricing, Availability and Retail Location (Entrepreneur)
Regulatory Environment Poses a Top Threat to Retail Industry (BDO)
RadioShack Looks to Regain Relevance With Push for Younger Consumers (AdAge)
Majority of US Mobile Consumers Use Devices to Comparison Shop (eMarketer)
Urban Outfitters to open in-store Bar at new outpost in hipster Brooklyn (Daily Mail)
New Shopping Tool Poaches Deals for Online Checkout (ClickZ)
Wearable Technology Market Set to Explode, Could Reach $50 Billion (Businss of Fashion)

Friday's Big Reading List, Part 2

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Fri, 17 May 2013 17:11:00 +0000

Tech-Savvy Gen Yers Still Flock to Stores (Urban Land Institute)
Competing with E-Commerce: Lessons Learned from a Retail Developer (NREI)
New Cash Registers Are Sexy, But What’s Beneath the Counter Matters More (Wired)
Dynamic Pricing Helps Keep Pace with Savvy Consumers (eMarketer)
Has Abercrombie & Fitch's CEO really made a 'Big, fat, marketing mistake'? (The Guardian) and The Perverse Brilliance Of Abercrombie & Fitch's CEO (Forbes)
Worldwide luxury goods continues double-digit annual growth (Bain & Co)
You can now spend bitcoins at your local mall (CNN Money)
62% of affluent adults prefer to purchase online (Mobile Commerce Daily)
Five Commerce Technologies Every Innovative Retail Chain Needs (Kurt Salmon)
Generation Y Tastes Have Mall Owners Shifting to Entertainment (WSJ)
YouTube Jumps into Retail with Shoppable Videos for Brand Channels (Brand Channel)
Wealthy Shoppers Focus On Quality And Price As Brands Blur Lines Between Luxury And Mainstream (Luxury Institute)

In case you missed it, check out part 1 of Friday's big reading list!

From Bad to Worse: JC Penney by the Numbers

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Fri, 17 May 2013 17:11:00 +0000

JC Penney released its first post-Ron Johnson earnings report yesterday, and the results weren't pretty:

Total sales in the first quarter dropped 16.4% to $2.635 billion and same-store sales fell 16.6% on top of an 18.9% decline in the prior-year quarter
Gross margin plunged to 30.8% from 37.6% in last year's first quarter, while the operating loss widened to $486 million from a loss of $226 million last year
Adjusted net income, excluding restructuring and management transition charges and non-cash primary pension plan expenses, widened to $289 million ($1.31 per share) from $55 million ($0.25 per share) in the prior year
TTM sales plunged 24.3% to $12.648 billion, and are 37.8% below the $20.033 billion in sales recorded 6 years ago; same-store sales fell 24.8% over the past 12 months
While the company didn't break out online sales, we estimate e-commerce sales fell 21% in the latest quarter, and declined 32% over the last 12 months to $964 million from $1.418 billion in the prior year
TTM Sales per square foot dropped 23.6% to just $103, and are down over 38% from the $167 level seen 6 years ago

JC Penney CEO says company needs time to climb out of 'abyss' (Reuters)
J.C. Penney Embraces New Marketing Plans, Looks Ahead (AdAge)
J.C. Penney’s Website Needs More Help Than Its Stores (BuzzFeed)
For JC Penney, the Right Direction May Be … Reverse (Time)
JC Penney chief vows to win back customers (FT)
J.C. Penney’s New Plan Is to Reuse Its Old Plans (NY Times)

Friday's Big Reading List, Part 1

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Fri, 17 May 2013 17:11:00 +0000

With so many worthy reads on this Friday afternoon, we decided to split the reading list in two:

Dollar stores: The next wave of growth in consumer healthcare and beyond (McKinsey & Co)
Online shopping becomes increasingly mobile (Internet Retailer)
Retail Rent Growth Finally Takes Root Across U.S. Metros (CoStar Group)
The Myth Of Showrooming Takes Another Hit (Storefront Backtalk)
Wal-Mart U.S. sales weak, sees pressure continuing (Yahoo! Finance) and Walmart Disappoints But Stays Course on Price Ads and E-Commerce (AdAge)
More Brands Want You to Model Their Clothes (WSJ)
Consumers expect same pricing, discounts and sales across channels (SDL)
Can Google Be The Amazon.com For The Rest Of The Web? (ReadWrite)
Appealing to Ethnic Consumers in the Beauty Aisle (Nielsen)
Thanks to new digital tools, marketing is no longer voodoo (The Economist)
Mother’s Day Online Shopping Up 15% As Mobile Surges (IBM)
How grocery store loyalty programs affect what you buy, how much you spend (Boston Globe)

Don't forget to check out part 2 of the reading list!

BIG Mid-Week Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Wed, 15 May 2013 15:45:00 +0000

Employment and Housing Driving Shopping Center Recovery (Colliers)
Diamonds to Blazers: Great Gatsby Mania Spawns Retail Lines (CNBC)
A Detailed Look at the Typical Mobile Shopper (Internet Retailer)
U.S. Retail E-Commerce Sales Grew 13% to $50.2 Billion in Q1 (comScore) and E-Commerce Sales Rose 15.2% to $61.2 Billion in Q1, 5.5% of Total Retail (Dept. of Commerce)
The Philosophy, Economics Behind Sourcing (NPR)
Square Introduces Stand to Turn IPads Into Cash Registers (Bloomberg) and Square And PayPal Push The iPad-ification Of America's Small Businesses (ReadWrite)
Can Walmart Beat Dollar Stores On Their Own Turf? (Forbes)
Tailor Made: The Future of Retail (MediaPost)
Retailers embrace in-store mapping via smartphones to facilitate shopping (Mobile Commerce Daily)
The 10 global cities with the highest retail rents (CBRE)
American Taste for Cheap Clothes Fed Bangladesh Boom (WSJ)
44% of Shoppers Will Buy Less Online if Internet Sales Tax Passes (Mashable)
Americans will spend $4.6 billion on graduation gifts this year (Retail's BIG Blog)
Amazon Glass: The ultimate shopping experience (CNET)
Retailers fight 'showrooming' with technology, personal services (Detroit Free Press)
Baby-Boomer Marketers Are Misreading Millennials' Media Behavior (AdAge)
The Holy Grail: The right product, price point and customer for same-day delivery (STORES)
America’s 10 Most Visited Stores (Yahoo! Finance)
Affluent Shoppers Trade Down From Gucci & Prada To J Crew & Coach (Businessweek)
Tablets More M-Commerce-Friendly Than Phones (MediaPost)
Retail Import Growth Expected to Slow Significantly Over Summer (NRF)
The Hot New Online Retail Strategy: Pushing More In-Store Purchases (Time)
How Gilt Groupe Built, And Kept, Its 7 Million Member Fan Base (Inc.)

By The Numbers: U.S. Retail E-Commerce Sales

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Wed, 15 May 2013 15:42:00 +0000

Friday's Giant Retail Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Fri, 10 May 2013 16:11:00 +0000

Shoppers who use mobile more, spend more in store (Google AdWords)
Is There Room In America For H&M And Uniqlo? (Forbes)
Study Finds 'Sequential' Pricing Can Increase Retail Profits (University of Arkansas)
The Retailer-Designer Dating Game (WSJ)
10 Ways Men And Women Spend Their Money Differently (BuzzFeed)
Target tests if Facebook-driven deals bring shoppers into stores (Reuters) and Target Teams Up With Facebook For Deals You Can Share (AdAge)
Lying and Hiding in the Name of Privacy (Customer Commons)
Retailers Eye Home Goods As Housing Sales Improve (CNBC)
Survey Shows 75% of Consumers Prefer Customized In-Store Experiences Over Online Shopping (Synqera)
15 Stats Retailers Should Know About Pinterest (Digiday)
The Secret Sauce of Amazon's E-Commerce Dominance (Business Insider)
Coming to a Shopping Cart Near You: Custom Pricing (LiveScience)
Retailers want to track your every move (CBS News)
Why Warby Parker Invited 20,000 Customers To Their Apartment (FastCo) and What Eyeware Startup Warby Parker Sees That Others Don't (Knowledge@Wharton) and How Warby Parker Plans to Take Down the Man, One Pair of Glasses at a Time (Wired)
Survey Finds In-store Data Collection Significantly Up (RetailNext)
The Shifting Winds of New York Retail: Soho’s Renaissance (Business of Fashion)
Medbox: Dawn of the Marijuana Vending Machine (Businessweek)
Smartphones are the key to revolutionizing shopping...but not in the way many think (Fortune)
Americans Still Enjoy Saving Rather Than Spending (Gallup)
Wanelo 3.0 makes e-commerce less ‘primitive’ by organizing products around people (VentureBeat)
Reverse Showrooming: Best Buy, Amazon And The Internet Sales Tax (Forbes)
Tablet-based cash registers dressed up to be attractive, versatile (Seattle Times)

Mother's Day 2013 Spending By The Numbers

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Fri, 10 May 2013 16:06:00 +0000

Consumers Look To Pamper Mom With IPads, Jewelry This Mother’s Day (NRF)

The National Retail Federation’s 2013 Mother’s Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey projects total Mother’s Day sales will rise 11.3% this year to nearly $20.7 billion, 3rd highest among holidays behind only Christmas and Back to School, with the average consumer spending $168.94 or 10.8% more than in 2012. Some highlights:

Spending on consumer electronics is expected to surge 44.5% to over $2.3 billion, while jewelry will grab the most wallet share, with consumers spending an average of $34.58 for a total of $4.23 billion, or 14.5% more than last year
Men will spend an average of $217.36 on gifts, while their female counterparts will spend approximately $123.18
Shoppers still prefer to browse in stores, but 28.5% will shop online this year, up from 25.6% last year and 18.2% in 2009
Mobile and tablet shopping activity will be prevalent, with 26.3% of smartphone owners researching and comparing prices and 11.7% making purchases, while 35.9% of tablet owners will research and compare prices and 20.9% will use their tablets to make purchases

Mother’s Day Sales to Grow 0.2% in 2013 (IBISWorld)

IBISWorld expects consumers to spend $17.1 billion, an increase of just 0.2% from 2012, as spending will "shift away from more personalized, time-consuming gifts to convenient gifts such as flowers and gift certificates."

Flower sales are expected to increase by 3.9% this year to $2.66 billion as companies make it easier to buy gifts by offering bouquet and gift baskets that are available for same-day local delivery, while sales of gift certificates will rise 2.2%
Electronics sales, on the other hand, are expected to drop 5.3% due to a lack of innovative new devices, and greeting card sales will fall 5.1% as consumers increasingly turn to e-cards, e-mail and social networks to send holiday greetings
While not expected to show much growth this year, jewelry and special outings will still grab the most wallet share, with 18.8% and 18.2% of total spending respectively

Shoppers Plan to Celebrate Mother's Day on a Budget (PriceGrabber)

52% of consumers are planning to spend less than $100 on gifts this year, 23% indicated they will spend $100-$249, and 12% said they would splurge more than $250, while 13% do not have a budget in mind
40% said they would purchase flowers, 24% indicated gift cards, 24% selected clothing and accessories, 22% percent plan to buy jewelry, and 19% are opting for an experiential gift such as going to dinner, a vacation or a show
15% plan to buy a tech-type gift for Mother's Day such as a computer, a tablet or a smartphone. Of those, 46% said a tablet, 27% selected a smartphone, 20% noted a computer, 13% chose a camera, and 11% said an e-reader
54% said they will buy from online stores via their computers, 38% plan to buy in brick-and-mortar stores, and 8% of survey respondents will purchase via a smartphone or tablet
55% said free shipping is the tactic most likely convincing them to buy, followed by price cuts (44%) and coupons (41%), while 22% said they will not be influenced by retailer tactics.

Survey: Valentine's Day Statistics 2013 (CreditDonkey)

Men plan to spend an average of $84.39 and female respondents plan to spend an average of $48.13
Most Americans plan to stick to traditions: 65% will take their significant other to dinner, 38% will give chocolates, and 37% will give flowers
The top gift choice for men is electronics (nearly 1 in 3), while nearly 1 in 3 women want to receive jewelry

Consumer’s Going More Traditional (Again) For Mother’s Day 2013 (Brand Keys)

More than nine of 10 consumers (92%) plan to celebrate Mother’s Day, driving total spending to nearly $18.6 billion
Celebrants intend to spend on average $171, up 5% over 2012, with men planning to spend an average of $200, while women reported an anticipated spend of $142

"Last year consumers shifted from high-tech gifts to more traditional gifts," noted Robert Passikoff, Brand Keys founder and president, "and consumers are doing that again this year, reporting intended purchases for more traditional gifts and events including cards, brunch or dinner, flowers, and clothing."

The continuing trend toward traditional gifts is a reaction to 2011’s purchases when ereaders, tablets, computers, and smartphones were gifts-of-choice. “No matter how much you love Mom, she really doesn’t need a new phone or tablet every year,” said Passikoff, “no matter how much tech brands wish that was the case.” This year “spa services” outpaced technology gifts.

Society of American Florists (SAF)

More than a third (38%) of adults (43% of men; 34% of women) bought flowers or plants as gifts for Mother's Day 2012
Valentine’s Day the No. 2 holiday for fresh flowers and plants, capturing 24% of holiday transactions and 25% of dollar volume

Hallmark

Mother’s Day is the third-largest card-sending holiday in the United States, with 141 million cards exchanged annually
Mother's Day is the largest card-sending holiday for the Hispanic community
Mother’s Day is the second most popular holiday for gift-giving, following Christmas

Tuesday's Big Retail Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Tue, 07 May 2013 15:23:00 +0000

Great Retail Insights From J Crew Chief Mickey Drexler (Bloomberg)
iPads as Cash Registers Are About to Go From Novelty to Norm (Wired)
With Reputations on the Line, Retailers Rethink Sourcing (CNBC)
Why omni-channel equals success in retail (PandoDaily)
Abercrombie's Preppy Police Enforce Rules for Staffers' Clothes, Internal Documents Show (BuzzFeed)
Does the American Shopping Mall Have a Second Life? (Adweek)
How To Close The Gap Between Online & Brick And Mortar Retail (PSFK)
Men Are Mobile Shoppers: 3 Things Trending With M-Commerce (POPAI)
Why Victoria's Secret And Burberry Win In Social Media - And Other Fashion Brands Fail (Business Insider)
An Online-Sales Tax May Not Help Brick-and-Mortar Retailers After All (The Atlantic Cities)
Barneys Takes Anti-Penney Approach to Turnaround (Businessweek)
Fresh approaches to fundamental issues in retail (Shop.org)
The explosive growth of e-commerce in China (NY Times)
Is Video The Key to More Online Sales? (WSJ)
Starbucks redesigns its cafés, and the whole idea of what a store can be (Fortune)
The Future of In-Store Retailing (Kurt Salmon)
New-Fangled Apps & Old-School Marketing Combine To Stymie "Showrooming" (ReadWrite) and Smart shopping or petty theft? Caught in the act of ‘showrooming’ (Seattle Times)
JC Penney Had the Right Big Idea, But Flubbed the Details (AdAge)
Lean Retail: The Future of Brick and Mortar (HuffPost)
Neiman Marcus owners exploring sale or IPO (Bloomberg)

Thursday's Big Retail Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Thu, 02 May 2013 14:17:00 +0000

The Millennials are finally poised to start spending (Barron's)
Retail Execs dominate list of highest CEO to worker compensation list (Bloomberg)
JC Penney Begs Customers to 'Come Back' in New Ad (Mashable)
Worldwide Tablet Demand Shows No Signs of Slowing Down (IDC)
The Splurge Surge: Luxury Spending on the Rise (Time) and Global Luxury Goods E-Commerce Market Soars (eMarketer)
Online Video Ads Have Higher Impact Than TV Ads (Adweek)
Retailers Wage War Against Long Lines (WSJ)
eBay To Use Mobile Tech To Go Deeper Into Offline Commerce With A Touchscreen Store Window (TechCrunch)
In Tomorrow’s Retail Universe, the Destination Is ‘You’ (Street Fight)
These Major Retailers Are Most Threatened By Mobile (Business Insider)
Mobile and Tablets Driving US Paid Search Spend (The Search Agency)
Consumers Look To Pamper Mom With IPads, Jewelry This Mother’s Day (NRF) and Mother’s Day Sales to Grow Just 0.2% in 2013 (IBISWorld)
Wal-Mart wants you to think of it as a technology company (MarketWatch)
70% of Brand Engagement on Pinterest Is User-Generated (Digitas)
A Preview of the Future of Retailing (Robin Report)
The coming era of ‘on-demand’ marketing (McKinsey Quarterly)
Is “Made in America” a relic of the past or the wave of the future? (STORES) and Patriotism, Jobs Primary Motivations for 'Buying American' (Gallup)
Wearable Technology Lets Us Track Consumers' Activity as Never Before (AdAge)
How e-retailers are keeping Amazon from monopolizing e-commerce (Internet Retailer)

Tuesday News & Notes

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:35:00 +0000

Here are Tuesday's top retail reads:

Internet’s creative destruction in retail just getting started (The Globe and Mail)
Is consignment the new fast fashion? (Upstart Business Journal)
Cheap clothes lead to danger and tragedy in Bangladesh (CNN Money) and Shoppers want bargains, but what about worker safety? (Washington Post)
Mexico retail boom attracts investors (ICSC)
Havaianas: From Peasant Footwear to Global Fashion Powerhouse (BrandChannel)
Digital Coupons, Mobile Give Cheapskates Staying Power (eMarketer)
Price Matching: Consumer Boon or Risky Business? (Businessweek)
Thinning Patience for Low Profits Could Equal Higher Amazon Prices (Wired)
Here's How Social Media Is Changing Retail (Huffington Post)
Online retailers’ sales forces are ubiquitous - and insidious (Boston Globe)
Fab ditches flash sales to focus on exclusive products, furniture & its very own retail store (VentureBeat) and Fab Now Offers Made-To-Order Products, A Physical Retail Store (FastCo)
Retail's Secret Weapon: Shopping Therapy via Enhanced Mobile Commerce (Forbes)
Wal-Mart's grand, green plans to reduce prices (Fortune)
Post-Recession Consumers Place Greater Importance on Saving Money (RetailMeNot)
America's Best Performing Cities (The Atlantic Cities)
The Future of Retail in the Age of the Flagship Store (WSJ)
Are retailers doing enough to leverage Kindle Fire? (Mobile Commerce Daily)
Retail window displays innovate for a digital age (The Globe and Mail)

It seems initial fears that higher payroll taxes, delayed tax returns and an early-season spike in gas prices would crimp discretionary spending were overblown, as consumer have continued spending at a healthy clip.

Since peaking at $3.784 in late February, national prices at the pump have declined 26.4 cents, falling for 9 consecutive weeks and sitting 8.1% below year-ago levels. This extra money in consumers' pockets has helped offset the effect of higher taxes.

While tax refunds were initially delayed because of the sequester - as of March 1st, the number of refunds issued were 12.5% below last year's levels and the total amount dispersed was down 14.3%, as of April 19th activity has picked up considerably: the number of refunds issued were only 1.3% below 2012 levels and the total amount dispersed was down 3.0%, while the average refund was $2,659, or 1.8% lower than a year ago.

The one factor that has held back spending is the unseasonably cold temperatures we have seen across the country during the first half of spring, especially in the northeast. Data from Weather Trends International shows that national temperatures have been lower than last year for 10 straight weeks, and for 14 of 17 weeks since the start of the year.

Shoppers have held back upgrading spring wardrobes and spending on seasonal merchandise, and we expect retailers will blame the weather when they report weak April sales next week, and margin contraction in their 1st quarter earnings reports.

Chain store sales did perk up somewhat last week. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs Index posted its biggest jump in nine weeks, rising 2.6% over the prior year and 0.4% from last week.

"Although the U.S. chain sales performance has been a bit choppy in recent weeks, the rolling trend shows modest improvement,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC's vice president of research and chief economist. “An extended streak of cool seasonal temperatures this year has curbed the consumers’ appetite for spring apparel and will likely mean more clearance discounting in the coming weeks. Ideally, a bout of extended warm spring weather might do wonders to lift that seasonal demand.”

The Johnson Redbook Index rose 2.8% over last year, the best gain in a month, but for all of April sales rose just 2.2% compared to an expected gain of 2.6%:

"Weather conditions were varied across the country, sunny and warm in some regions, but unseasonably cool in others. Stores relying on spring driven apparel sales reported mixed results for the week, depending on their regional weighting; some national retailers indicated particular strength in west coast sales, where spring weather generally prevailed. Top selling merchandise categories showed a seasonal bias, concentrated on spring apparel, lawn and garden supplies and home improvement."

The Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell slightly in April to 76.4 from 78.6 in March, but improved considerably from the preliminary 72.3 reading earlier in the month:

Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, said "Consumer confidence was not negatively affected by the Boston marathon bombing. Although confidence posted significant declines in early April, it began to improve prior to the bombing and gained strength throughout the rest of the month. Even when consumers were asked to describe in their own words their economic situation and that of the nation as a whole, there were virtually no references to the Boston marathon bombing. Of course, this does not mean that people did not grieve at the human tragedy, only that consumers did not think the events in Boston would influence national economic prospects.”

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index jumped 10% in April on a considerably improved short-term outlook: The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next 6 months increased to 16.9% from 15.0%, while those anticipating business conditions to worsen decreased to 15.1% from 17.7%:

Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said "Consumer Confidence improved in April, as consumers’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook and their income prospects improved. However, consumers’ confidence has been challenged several times over the past few months by such events as the fiscal cliff, the payroll tax hike and the sequester. Thus, while expectations appear to have bounced back, it is too soon to tell if confidence is actually on the mend."

ShopperTrak expects business to pick up in May, as consumers will splurge on moms for Mother's Day and kids for graduations, as well as pent-up demand being released for spring and seasonal merchandise as the spring weather finally arrives.

Retail Reads to Start Your Week

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 14:15:00 +0000

U.S. retail and consumer M&A activity surges in first quarter of 2013 (PwC)
The future of the personalized shopping experience (FastCo)
Malls, shopping centers getting new life as residential and retail projects (Washington Post)
Amazon's success formula: move bits instead of boxes (Reuters)
75% of mobile conversions stem from tablets (Internet Retailer) and The growing role of tablets in mobile commerce (MediaPost)
Millennials less likely to change spending habits because of economy (Retail's BIG Blog)
Why Consumer-Facing E-Commerce Is Broken (Business Insider)
Why The Future Is Murky For Old-Line Retailers J.C. Penney, Sears (Forbes)
Big-box stores add financial services to inventory (Seattle Times)
Retailer Expansion Slows as Focus Switches to Multichannel Integration (Accenture)
The Frontier Of Online Retail Is Curation (PSFK)
How Pretty Pictures Are Conquering Online Shopping (Wired) and And Now Comes The Rise Of P-Commerce (Mashable)
Web retailers try to regain edge with same-day delivery (NY Post)
What U.S. E-Commerce Can Learn from Its Global Copycats (HBR)
Nearly 40% of US mobile phone owners will become mobile phone shoppers by 2017 (Forrester)
How Mobile is Changing the In-Store Shopping Experience (PC Mag)
rue21 Seen as next M&A target in new retail LBO boom (Bloomberg)
Internet Sales Tax Coming Too Late for Some Stores (NY Times) and Tax-free digital content’s days may be numbered as well (MarketWatch)

Thursday's Top Retail Reads

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 14:41:00 +0000

The most active cities globally for shopping center development (CBRE)
Creating ‘Youphoria’ the Nordstrom Way (NY Times)
PayPal Expands To More Retail Stores (ReadWrite) and PayPal Hits The Mall: eBay's Baby Takes On Google, AmEx and Apple At Cash Registers (Forbes)
Dresses and denim drive strong women's apparel sales in 2012 (NPD Group)
The Re-Education of Duane Reade: A Drugstore as Retail, Therapy (NY Observer)
The importance of in-store video for retailers (The Guardian)
The State of Mobile Benchmark: Tablets overtake smartphones in traffic, conversion (Adobe)
Prom Spending is on the Rise Again (AP)
There’s room for retailers to improve their e-mail marketing (Internet Retailer)
Online tax could curb ‘showrooming’ (MarketWatch)
Mobile POS could transform the American shopping experience (VentureBeat)
A Clothing Shop Tailored for the Digital Age (WSJ) and Pants-Fetching ‘Bots Power Store of the Future, and Could Slow Amazon’s March (Wired)

Big Mid-Week Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 14:36:00 +0000

Mobile is both curse and cure for retailers at risk from showroomers (TNS)
Outlet Mall With Fashion Ambition Rises Near Chicago (NY Times)
The Impact of Income on Convenience Store Shopping (CStoreNews)
The Entertaining And Cringe-Inducing Ways Urban Outfitters Describes Its Customers To Wall Street (BuzzFeed)
One-third of retailers see more than 20% of traffic coming from mobile (Mobile Commerce Daily)
Content is the new retail store (USA Today)
Gap to Use Multi-Brand Platform to Increase U.S. Market Share (NREI)
Smartphones, Tablets Drive Faster Growth in Ecommerce Sales (eMarketer)
Specialty retailers are beating department stores in the underwars (Crain's NY)
Mobile moms browse, buy on own schedule (Chain Store Age)
The Mom & Pop Internet Sales Tax (WSJ) and A New Tax That Could Send Shoppers Back to the Mall (The Fiscal Times) and Online Retailers Take Opposite Sides On Sales Tax Bill (NPR)
A Rise in Wealth for the Wealthy; Declines for the Lower 93% (Pew Research Center)
More Shoppers Share Bad Customer Service Experiences Than Good (POPAI)
Shopping Within Images On Twitter And Facebook (PSFK)
Wal-Mart Vs. Amazon: World's Biggest E-Commerce Battle Could Boil Down To Vegetables (Forbes)
Most Affluent Will Maintain Spending Despite Higher Income Taxes (American Affluence Research Center)
How eBay Is Blurring Online, Offline Shopping (WSJ)
Infographic: Men More Likely Than Women to Use Mobile Shopping Technology (Adweek)
From moments to journeys: A paradigm shift in customer experience excellence (McKinsey)
Flagship Stores and E-Commerce: Recipe for Retail Success in China (Nasdaq)

Retail Reads to Start Your Week

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:59:00 +0000

With Tablets, Retailers Ring Up at More Fanciful Cash Registers (NY Times)
The 12 Worst Supermarkets in America (The Fiscal Times)
Best Buy and Samsung further tie their knot (Star Tribune)
Latest Profile of the 21st Century Social Mom Shows Her World Is Social (BabyCenter.com)
Coach Fights to Keep Cachet as Competition Rises (WSJ)
How Did the Baby Catalog Know? Exploring the world of digital data-mining (The Atlantic)
Under Armour sets global ambitions (MarketWatch)
Infographic: How The Average American Spends Their Money (CreditLoan)
Nutrisystem Joins Forces With Walmart in Retail Push (AdAge)
Study Shows Teen Discretionary Spending Climbing (Piper Jaffray)
Gap Proposes Franchising, Seamless Shopping in Plan for Global Expansion (BrandChannel)
5 Failures That Show Even Amazon Sometimes Checks Out (Wired)
Why Online Retailers Are Scrambling To Lure In Canadian Shoppers (SeedWalker)
With an Evolutionary Approach, Uniqlo Aims to Create New Category (Business of Fashion)

Why Online Retailers Are Scrambling To Lure In Canadian Shoppers (SeedWalker)

Friday Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 15:45:00 +0000

The Luxury Market for Babies and Toddlers Is Back (Businessweek)
The Lululemon rival that grew rapidly with almost no advertising (The Globe and Mail)
How Retailers Can Recruit and Retain Millennials (Entrepreneur)
Fab is Pivoting Again To Become The 'World's Alternative To Amazon And Wal-Mart' (Business Insider)
Top 10 ideas from Retail over the last 12 months (Springwise)
Does Kmart’s Hilarious New Ad Acknowledge That Kmart Stores Are Hopeless? (Time)
Personalized Commerce: Coming to an Internet Near You (AdAge)
How Mobile Affects the Path to Purchase for Adidas (eMarketer)
A Closet Filled With Regrets: Why People Regularly Wear Just 20% of Their Wardrobe (WSJ)
Can Joe Fresh Save JCPenney... and Retail? (BrandChannel)
What your zip code reveals about you to retailers (CNN Money)
The Business of Record Store Day (Fortune) and Record Store Day brings customers - and headaches - for independent stores (Washington Post)
Infographic: What Women Want When Shopping For Apparel & Shoes (Swirl)
The Man Who Made the Cash Register Obsolete (Inc.http://bit.ly/10nryms)
How Stores Get You To Buy Stuff Using A Sensory Bombardment (Consumerist)

Thursday News & Notes

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 18:51:00 +0000

The Science Behind How Online Retailers Turn You Into A Customer For Life (Business Insider)
What a Shock...the Gourmet Cupcake Bubble is Popping (WSJ)
Trickle Down Retail: Mass Takes A Few Cues From the Higher End (WWD)
Tale of Two Supermarkets: Why Fresh & Easy Flopped and Fairway Flies High (Time)
What's the Worth of a Facebook Fan? (Mashable) and Social Networking For Marketers: How Pinterest Crushes Facebook (ReadWrite)
Sales of men's underwear & socks as an economic indicator? (MarketWatch)
How Consumers Spend Their Time Online (Experian)
Are You Listening to Your Most Important Customers? (HBR)
The End of Full-Time Work in the American Retail Service Sector (Forbes)
Despite Target's entry into Canada, cross-border shopping is on the rise (The Globe and Mail)
The Teen Transition: Adolescents of Today, Adults of Tomorrow (Nielsen)
Attention Retailers: Amazon Prime members are located in Aisle 5 (Compete) and Amazon hopes its original TV shows convince more to become Prime members (Washington Post)

It's hard to get a read on the American consumer these days:

On the plus side, gas prices have come down significantly, the job market continues to improve, and rising house and stock prices are bolstering household wealth
On the other hand, consumers are confronted with less-take home pay due to higher payroll taxes, delayed tax refunds, and austerity measures which appear to be constraining economic growth

The 15 or so consumer confident/sentiment indicators we track are showing a cloudy picture and consumers have been cautious with their spending in the first quarter of the year, but today Bloomberg reported that its Consumer Comfort Index reached a 5-year high last week.

The differences across demographics are telling, and show the recovery has been much better for some: Those taking home more than $50k per year were the least pessimistic in more than five years, and those with incomes greater than $100k were the most optimistic in more than two years. However, sentiment among those making less than $25k annually dropped, and part-time employees also grew more pessimistic.

"Upper-income Americans continue to feel buoyant on the sustainable recovery," said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. "The difficulties that can be observed down the income ladder reflect the significant split in the fortunes of upper-income Americans and low-income cohorts."

“The question is whether consumer sentiment can maintain enough momentum to keep pushing on up,” Gary Langer, president of Langer Research Associates in New York, which compiles the index for Bloomberg, said in a statement. “Recent trends -- a down January, an up February, a mostly flat March, now this surge -- suggest a bumpy ride, but at least one that’s headed in the right direction.”

Big Mid-Week Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 14:35:00 +0000

Shoppers’ Belts Remain Tight Despite Economic Improvement (Deloitte)
Sam’s Club faces heightened competition (The City Wire)
Warehouses Win Investors as Unsung Internet-Trade Heroes (Businessweek)
Retail Redlining: One of the Most Pervasive Forms of Racism Left in America? (The Atlantic Cities)
Fairway, New York Grocer With Big Ambitions, Goes Public (DealBook)
U.S. Consumers Love the Brands that Love Them (Analytic Partners)
Attention JC Penney Shoppers: Look Out for the Return of 'Sales Galore' (Time) and JC Penney Looks to Borrow Against Real Estate Holdings to Raise Cash (Bloomberg)
Five Things You Didn't Know About CPG Mobile Advertising (AdAge)
Why Amazon Could Start Taking Business Cues From the ’80s (Wired)
Better Data Collection Will Help Retailers (MediaPost)
Elevating the customer experience is essential for differentiation and survival for retailers (e-tailing group)
Online retailers extend reach with delivery lockers (Star Tribune)
Tipping Its Hat to a Younger Generation, Pukka Headwear Finds Success With Customized Approach (Entrepreneur)
Why Every Retailer Wants to Sell Food (The Food Journal)
Men lead the way in mobile shopping (Warc)
Sony to expand retail footprint to compete with Apple (SlashGear)
In retail, life on the job often leads to a dead end (CBS News)
Is 'Showrooming' the Future of Retailing? (LinkedIn) and 57% of Showroomers Test Products, Then Head to Amazon (Mashable)

Tuesday News & Notes

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 15:32:00 +0000

Tuesday's Reading List:

How Jenna Lyons Transformed J.Crew Into a Cult Brand (FastCo)
Big-box stores ramping up financial services offerings (Miami Herald)
Starbucks, Wal-Mart offering classes - for college credit (CNN Money)
Social Media Becomes Less Important to Teens; Prefer to Shop In-Store Than Online (MarketingProfs)
Kmart’s cheeky ‘Ship My Pants’ video goes viral, eyes TV run (Adweek)
The True Cost of Retail Fraud (LexisNexis)
Amazon Goes After Older Adults & Seniors With New Store (TechCrunch)
Retailers ramp up social media to win friends and influence shoppers (Internet Retailer)
Western Retailers Look for E-Commerce Opportunities in China (CKGSB Knowledge)
The big data revolution for retailers has arrived (CNBC)
U.S. Consumers Want a Seamless Shopping Experience Across Store, Online and Mobile that Many Retailers are Struggling to Deliver (Accenture)
U.S. Social Ad Revenues to Reach $11B in 2017 (BIA/Kelsey)

Target lowered first quarter guidance this morning due to "softer-than-expected sales trends particularly in seasonal and weather-sensitive categories across the store."

Even as much of the country got a “strong shot of spring weather with high temperatures reaching into the mid 80s as far north as Pennsylvania." last week according to Weather Trends International, unseasonably cold weather will no doubt be blamed for disappointing earnings from other chains in the coming weeks.

Retailers have gotten much better at inventory management since the depths of the recession, and we have yet to see aggressive promotional activity in our channel checks for spring and seasonal merchandise. Most chains are hoping a return to more typical seasonal weather patterns will trigger some pent-up demand on the part of the consumer.

However, it's worth noting that year-over-year inventory growth (excluding autos) is starting to outpace sales growth, especially at apparel and general merchandise stores, which could spell margin pressure in the coming quarters.

Retail Reads to Start Your Week

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 12:33:00 +0000

Why a Warby Parker flagship retail store is a big moment for online brands (GigaOM)
How Teenagers Spend Their Money (The Atlantic)
Don't Miss Jeff Bezos' Annual Letter to Amazon Shareholders (Amazon.com)
Traditional Retailers Lagging in Plus-Sized Fashion Offerings (The Globe and Mail)
A look back 111 years at JC Penney's first store (CBS News)
The strange and inglorious history of tech boutique retailers (CNET) and Ron Johnson’s brand-oriented boutiques couldn’t save JC Penney. Is Best Buy any different? (PandoDaily)
Why airport shopping is big business (Independent Online)
New app pays consumers to shop (Mashable)
Lucky Brand, Juicy Couture Said to Draw Interest From VF, Buyout Firms (Bloomberg)
The Next Big Marketing Weapon For Supermarkets - The Dietitian (AdAge)
Target deploys prolific group of social-media gurus to win over consumers (Star Tribune)
Same-day delivery service may finally give retailers a fighting chance against Amazon (VentureBeat)
J.C. Penney's Real Problem: The Shrinking Middle Class (HBR) and For Penney, a Tough Lesson in Shopper Psychology (NY Times)
How the Internet Is Bankrolling the World’s Best Hoodies - And Rebooting U.S. Manufacturing (Wired)

Friday Reading List

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 15:59:00 +0000

Take A Look Inside Warby Parker's New NYC Flagship Store (FastCo)
7 Emerging Trends in Shopper Marketing (POPAI)
Buyout Firms Circling Distressed JC Penney (NY Post) and What Ron Johnson Got Right at JC Penney (HBR)
Dollar Shave Club, From Viral Video to Real Business (NY Times)
Facebook Fatigue Among Teens Should Freak Out Marketers (Businessweek)
As e-commerce gains momentum, ChannelAdvisor files for IPO (VentureBeat)
Landlords and Retailers: Partnering for Profitability (ICSC)
In-Store Gets the Cold Shoulder, as More Women Favor Web Buying (eMarketer)
5 Big Retailers That’ll Be Gone in 5 Years (Yahoo! Finance)
With Profitable Operations And 100K Stores On Its Platform, Retail Tech Startup Erply Shifts Into High Gear (TechCrunch)
Can Big-Box Stores Fight Showrooming With Celebrity Brands? (FastCo)
Uniqlo Sets Goal: No. 1 U.S. Apparel Chain by 2020 (WSJ)
The Unique Profile Of Pinterest Users (Forrester)
How Walmart Plans to Bring Back "Made in America" (Time)
Now You Can Buy and Sell Items Directly in Your Twitter Feed With Ribbon (Mashable)
Toys ‘R’ Us Needs to Up its Game for Owners to Cash Out (NREI)

Retail Sales Cool Down in March

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 14:21:00 +0000

Retail sales in the U.S. fell in March for the first time in 5 months, and posted the biggest drop in 9 months.

There are many factors at play here which we have already mentioned: higher payroll taxes, delayed tax refunds and relatively high gas prices which are causing consumers to be cautious with their spending; unseasonably cool weather which held back spring apparel and seasonal purchases; and finally the timing of Easter, which typically wreaks havoc on year-to-year comparisons.

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services sales for March declined 0.4% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $418.3 billion, while sales rose 2.8% compared to the year-ago period. Year-over-year, this was the 41st straight monthly rise, but the weakest gain since November of 2009.

Total sales excluding Autos were up 2.0% compared to last March and dropped 0.4% from the prior month, while total sales less Autos and Gas Stations showed a 2.4% year-on-year increase, the weakest since February 2010, and were down a slight 0.1% from February.

Only 5 of 13 sectors posted growth over the prior month, led by Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores (+0.9% MoM / +2.8% YoY), Miscellaneous Store Retailers (+0.8% MoM / +4.4% YoY) and Food Services & Drinking Places (+0.7% MoM / +4.3% YoY).

However, weakness was apparent in discretionary categories, such as Electronics & Appliance Stores (-1.6% MoM / -3.2% YoY), General Merchandise Stores (-1.2% MoM / -4.9% YoY), and most especially at Department Stores (-1.1% MoM / -7.6% YoY) which posted a 4.9% sales decline in the first 3 months of the year compared to 2012. The last time department stores posted an annual sales gain was 2004.

It's possible this month is just a blip caused by the seasonal effect of the early Easter - last year we saw an exceptionally strong March followed by a weak April - and with falling gas prices, shoppers finally getting their tax refunds and pent-up demand for spring and seasonal goods, we could see the reverse this year.

On the other hand, the initial reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released this morning, which fell to a nine-month low, shows the perilous state of the American consumer: survey director Richard Curtin said "rising home and stock values were expected to support spending this year," but consumer's long-term outlook was gloomy "with many anticipating a higher unemployment rate and lower after-tax income in the year ahead."

Thursday Retail News & Notes: A Chilly Start to Spring

noreply@blogger.com (Josh Ramer) — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 15:21:00 +0000

A combination of higher payroll taxes, delayed tax returns and unseasonably cool weather has made for a chilly start to spring for many American retailers.

Gap won't report March sales results until after the close, but consolidated sales for the 12 non-drug store chains that have reported (see graphic below) posted just a 2.5% rise in same-store sales for March, which was the lowest since August 2009.

Weather was certainly a factor, as Weather Trends International said last month "was the coldest March in the U.S. in 17 years, with the most snowfall in 20 years." The early Easter, which fell a week earlier than last year and three weeks earlier than in 2011, was expected to lift sales 1-2% point but provided little lift as wintry weather held back sales of spring apparel and seasonal merchandise.

Because of the Easter shift every year, the combined March-April period always provides a much better barometer of business. In addition, with so many chains dropping out of the ranks of monthly sales reporting, these reports don't necessarily paint an accurate picture of the overall industry.

However, tomorrow morning the Department of Commerce will release national retail sales figures for March, which will provide a much broader view of consumer spending across a variety of retail sectors.

Tuesday's Reading List:

American Families Increasingly Let Kids Make Buying Decisions (Time)
Tied to the Mall, J.C. Penney and Macy's Need Each Other (Businessweek)
How companies can make their loyalty programs more effective (McKinsey & Co)
Walmart exec says biggest mobile opportunity is connecting with in-store customers (Mobile Commerce Daily)
Americans Love Amazon, But Going to the Store Still Matters Most (Wired)
Why Fab proves that social media sells (The Guardian)
PayPal hopes to break shoppers' swipe habit in stores (Reuters)
Bloomingdale's Installs Body Scanners to Help You Find Jeans That Fit (Mashable)
PC Shipments Post the Steepest Decline Ever in a Single Quarter (IDC) and Worldwide PC Shipments Drop to Lowest Levels Since Second Quarter of 2009 (Gartner)
How Walmart Wants Brands to Fuel Its Content Engine (AdAge)
Rich People Are Less Loyal to Specific Brands (Adweek)
Ron Johnson’s failed experiment in honest pricing (Marketwatch)
How to build a better seamless retail customer strategy (Accenture)
Pandora For Pants: Are Personal Shopping Services The Future Of Retail? (FastCo)
Facebook uses offline purchases to target ads (CNN Money)
How Goldman's dollar-store bet reaped a fortune (Fox Business)
Video: Warby Parker Makes Big Bet on Bricks & Mortar (CNBC)