In the WSJ, Kimberley Strassel takes up the issue of a three-ring circus. Evidently, someone in charge hasn’t been paying attention. Donald Trump, impatient man that he is, has a request. He wants the damaging sub debate to go on. Ms. Strassel sounds worried The GOP urgently needs to move beyond what is now “a three-month circus” over lapsed funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

Strassle wants the GOP to pivot to more positive midterm messages. Instead, Congress is ‘bottled up in a debate over a 90,000-square-foot sliver of White House real estate.’

The joke is that this isn’t really even about the money. It’s about helping the White House overcome a lawsuit. But the means to that end are proving controversial within the GOP, even as they have provided Democrats an opening to brand their opponents “ballroom Republicans.” This is a classic example of a party dancing to a clunker of a presidential tune.

Read more of Kimberley Strassle in today’s WSJ.

Ballroom Republicans
Debbie Young

Your Survival Guy had the pleasure of playing in a member/guest golf outing recently. In between shots, my host and I were talking about residential real estate prices. Both of us have kids in their twenties, and the focus was more about how their generation deals with affordability. Which got us thinking: How did we afford it? Good question.

When you start thinking about what may be perhaps one of your most valuable assets, getting in the game matters, and it’s a leap of faith. When we found our first home in Newport, Rhode Island, I remember my father (who was a realtor) couldn’t believe what it was going to cost—not the vote of confidence we were looking for, but we bit the bullet and bought it anyway.

During the financial crisis ten years later, it wasn’t like we were going to pack up the house and kids and move. We were not selling. We just kept making payments and living our lives as young parents.

Today, we live in a different house, but when I walk down memory lane and go to Zillow to see what that same house would go for today, it’s five times as much as what we paid back in 1998. In other words, if you wait too long for prices to come down, it may be a long wait before you’re a homeowner.

What’s even more important is the financial discipline you’re forced to learn at a young age. Getting into the game, doing the work, makes for some long days. But looking back, I’m happy we got into the game and made (not hoped) the numbers work.

Action Line: When you have your mortgage payments under control, let me know if you need help with your savings. You got this. Email me at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com.

Originally posted on Your Survival Guy. 

“How Did We Afford It?”
E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Our friend Justin Logan, the Director of Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, and a former contributor to this website, explains (along with Sumantra Maitra, Cato’s Director of Research and Outreach) clearly and accurately how President Trump’s withdrawal of some troops from Europe is a benefit to America, and should be followed up by further cuts. Logan writes:

President Trump shocked the foreign-policy establishment with an announcement late Friday that the United States would be withdrawing roughly 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany.

Predictably, Washington’s Europe-Firsters snapped for their fainting couches. Sen. Roger Wicker and Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican chairs of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees, respectively, pronounced themselves “very concerned” by the move, fretting that it “risks undermining deterrence and sending the wrong signal to Vladimir Putin.”

President Trump is right to withdraw troops from Germany and from Europe. Neocon Republicans and Democrats are wrong. There is already a template for a rapid withdrawal from Europe: the one that took place after the end of the Cold War — incidentally, also the last era when the U.S. had a balanced budget. Our only criticism is that Trump’s current withdrawal numbers don’t go far enough. (In fairness, the president promised on Saturday that he is “going to cut way down. And we’re cutting a lot further than 5,000.”)

Read more here.

At a recent press conference, Vice President Vance commented on the troop withdrawals:

Reporter: The Pentagon halted 4,000 troops to Poland. Why are you rewarding Putin and punishing your best ally in Europe?

Vance: There’s been no president who’s done more to ensure that Ukraine survived the invasion of Russia than Trump. Poland is capable of defending itself.… pic.twitter.com/kcj4AdY4bu

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 19, 2026

Trump’s Withdrawal from Europe Is a Good Start for America
Richard C. Young

President Trump issued an executive order titled “RESTORING INTEGRITY TO AMERICA’S FINANCIAL SYSTEM” on May 19. According toe Andrew R. Arthur at the Center for Immigration Studies, the order “seeks to restrict access to the U.S. financial system by illegal aliens in the United States.”

He continues:

The third paragraph of section 1 of that order makes clear what considerations lenders can and likely should make when confronted with a would-be borrower with a job but no right to work in this country. It states, in part:

Banks and other financial institutions should also be attentive to the credit risks posed by the extension of mortgage and auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer credit to the inadmissible and removable alien population. Many of those borrowers face the possibility of the loss of wages due to removal or their employers’ decisions to comply with immigration law. Lending to aliens without legal work authorization or who face a substantial loss-of-wage risk creates a structural “ability to repay” deficiency that undermines the safety and soundness of the national banking system.

Thus, as opposed to the CFPB and DOJ in October 2023, which vaguely threatened lenders with a nasty (and reputation-tarnishing) civil rights prosecution if they logically decided an alien without a right to work might not be a great credit risk, Trump makes clear that banks and other financial institutions must consider those facts, as should the financial industry as a whole.

The order from Trump reads:

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered:

Section 1.  Purpose.  America’s financial institutions serve a critical role in safeguarding the American people against financial fraud and abuse.  My Administration has taken significant steps to lower the costs of providing financial services for Americans and reduce unnecessary and burdensome Federal regulations that restrain economic growth and hamper the competitiveness of financial service providers nationwide.  However, it has long been the policy of the United States to adopt tailored measures to safeguard our financial system from illicit use and promote safe and sound lending and other practices by financial institutions.  My Administration will not tolerate national security and public safety risks caused by illicit cross-border financial activity, nor will it permit risks to our financial system posed by the extension of credit or financial services to the inadmissible and removable alien population.

Even the provision of the most basic financial services, absent proper know-your-customer practices, can be abused to facilitate the funding of activities that pose significant threats to national security and public safety.  Low-dollar cross-border funds transfers have been used to facilitate or commit terrorist financing, narcotics trafficking, human trafficking, and other illegal activity.  Financial trend analyses have uncovered hubs of deadly fentanyl-related financial activity in the United States related to Mexico-based cartels.  A recent analysis of Chinese money laundering networks identified how foreign passport holders have used United States-based accounts to facilitate the laundering of over $312 billion for criminal organizations, with human trafficking highlighted among the activities associated with the transfers.  Robust customer identification programs and enhanced due diligence measures are necessary to mitigate these risks.

Banks and other financial institutions should also be attentive to the credit risks posed by the extension of mortgage and auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer credit to the inadmissible and removable alien population.  Many of those borrowers face the possibility of the loss of wages due to removal or their employers’ decisions to comply with immigration law.  Lending to aliens without legal work authorization or who face a substantial loss-of-wage risk creates a structural “ability to repay” deficiency that undermines the safety and soundness of the national banking system.  Additionally, employers who violate immigration law may underreport wages, use mismatched or invalid Social Security numbers and taxpayer identification numbers, or fail to properly withhold or remit payroll taxes.  Such schemes can create vulnerabilities within our financial system by obscuring income sources, distorting credit underwriting, and facilitating underground economic activity.

It is the policy of my Administration to restore integrity to America’s financial system, safeguard financial institutions against structural risks, and deter fraud and abuse.

Sec. 2.  Definition.  The term “Federal functional financial regulator” means the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the National Credit Union Administration.

Sec. 3.  Safeguarding Against Fraud and Abuse.  (a)  Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Treasury shall issue a formal Advisory to financial institutions regarding the risks associated with the exploitation of the United States financial system by non-work authorized populations and their employers.  This Advisory shall describe specific red flags and typologies associated with the following categories of suspicious activity:

(i)    evidentiary patterns of payroll tax evasion by employers or labor brokers, including the systematic failure to withhold or remit Federal employment taxes for non-work authorized individuals;

(ii)   the utilization of certain foreign-identity documents, nominee accounts, shell companies, or complex “funnel” structures designed to obfuscate the identity of the ultimate beneficial owners or conceal the true nature of payroll disbursements;

(iii)  the strategic use of unregistered money services businesses, third-party payment processors, or peer-to-peer platforms to facilitate “off-the-books” wage payments intended to bypass Bank Secrecy Act reporting thresholds or tax obligations;

(iv)   patterns of repetitive, sub-threshold cash withdrawals or deposits that correlate with payroll cycles conducted outside of regulated payroll processing systems, also known as “structuring and micro-structuring”;

(v)    financial activity indicative of labor trafficking or forced labor (as defined in 18 U.S.C. 1589), where proceeds are commingled with legitimate business revenue or transferred to foreign jurisdictions; and

(vi)   the use of an individual taxpayer identification number (ITIN) to obtain credit products or open depository accounts where the applicant lacks verified lawful immigration status.  Although an ITIN facilitates tax compliance, its use in lieu of a Social Security number or valid work-authorized visa may be identified as a risk factor requiring enhanced due diligence to ensure the account is not being utilized to facilitate the unlawful employment of unauthorized aliens.

(b)  Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Treasury shall, in consultation with the appropriate Federal functional financial regulators, propose changes to applicable implementing regulations of the Bank Secrecy Act to strengthen risk-based customer due diligence requirements for covered financial institutions.  Such changes should ensure that:

(i)   institutions collect and verify sufficient customer identity information to reasonably identify the nominal and beneficial owners of accounts in order to assess risks related to illicit finance, sanctions evasion, fraud, or other unlawful activity; and

(ii)  institutions maintain the authority, where warranted by other risk indicators or supervisory concerns, to obtain additional information necessary to resolve material compliance concerns, including information relevant to whether account holders possess lawful immigration status and employment authorization in the United States when such information is relevant to assessing risks associated with fraud, identity misrepresentation, sanctions evasion, or other illicit financial activity, as part of a risk-based customer due diligence program.

(c)  Within 180 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Treasury and the appropriate Federal functional financial regulators shall consider changes to applicable implementing regulations of the Bank Secrecy Act to strengthen risk-based customer identification program requirements for covered financial institutions.  Any changes considered should account for the risks foreign consular identification cards pose to the integrity of the United States financial system.

Sec. 4.  Addressing Structural Credit Risks.  (a)  Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau shall consider clarifying that potential deportation and loss of wages are factors that could adversely affect a non-work authorized borrower’s ability to repay an extension of credit under the “ability-to-repay” standards in 12 CFR Part 1026 and its appendices and supplements, and that lenders may consider such factors as part of a reasonable and good-faith underwriting determination.

(b)  Within 60 days of the date of this order, each appropriate Federal functional financial regulator shall issue guidance regarding the management of the potential credit risks posed by the non-work authorized population.

Sec. 5.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i)   the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b)   This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c)  This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

(d)  The costs for publication of this order shall be borne by the Department of the Treasury.

DONALD J. TRUMP

THE WHITE HOUSE,

May 19, 2026.

Trump Targets Banking for Illegals and Terrorists
The Editors

The article, “Missiles Aren’t Strategy: Lessons From Iran for a Pacific Air War“ by David Deptula and Jahara Matisek for War on the Rocks, argues that while China’s missile arsenal presents a serious challenge to US and allied airpower in the Indo-Pacific, missile numbers alone will not decide a future conflict. Drawing lessons from Ukraine and the 2026 Iran war, the authors explain that modern warfare depends on adaptation, dispersal, rapid runway repair, deception, and counterattacks, all of which can help air forces continue operating despite sustained missile strikes.

It highlights the vulnerability of air bases, tankers, and command aircraft, which are critical for US operations across the Pacific. However, damaged runways and bases can often be repaired quickly, and dispersed operations make targeting more difficult.

They stress that defensive measures alone are not enough. Offensive counter-air operations — attacking enemy missile launchers, sensors, and command systems — are essential to reducing incoming strikes and maintaining combat effectiveness.

Deptula and Matisek conclude that while China’s missile threat is serious, resilience, adaptation, and strategy will shape the outcome more than missile numbers alone.

Resilience and Adaptation Matter More Than Missile Numbers
Steve Schneider

Defense startup Mach Industries has acquired rocket and hypersonic developer Exquadrum in a $50 million cash-and-equity deal, giving the young drone company access to advanced rocket propulsion technology, hypersonic weapons research, and defense contracts tied to the Trump administration’s priorities, such as Golden Dome missile defense.

The acquisition reflects the growing influence of venture-backed defense startups as US military spending increasingly focuses on drones, hypersonic missiles, and autonomous systems, reports The Wall Street Journal. Exquadrum brings more than two decades of expertise in rocket motors, hypersonic testing, and space propulsion, along with 85 employees and specialized facilities.

Mach Industries founder Ethan Thornton said the company plans to integrate Exquadrum’s technology into its autonomous aircraft programs as defense-tech investment surges under renewed Pentagon support for rapidly innovating startups.

Defense Startup Mach Expands Into Rockets and Hypersonics
Steve Schneider

UPDATE 5.20.26: Despite Gov. Kathy Hochul’s slowdown of green mandates in New York, progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been silent on the issue. Politico’s Marie French implies that AOC is trying not to rock the boat in order to shore up her footing for a future run for higher office. French writes:

ALBANY, New York — As Gov. Kathy Hochul unravels a signature climate law, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has remained silent.

Her reticence marks a stark change. Right after her first election win in 2018, the Congressmember joined protesters in the office of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to call for aggressive action on climate. And for years, she’s championed the “Green New Deal,” an ambitious framework for transitioning the nation off fossil fuels.

But the nationally recognized progressive star may be moderating on some issues, or at least picking her battles more carefully, as she mulls her next potential electoral office. Ocasio-Cortez leads the Democratic field in an early poll for the 2028 presidential election and has been perennially discussed as a challenger for a Senate seat in New York.

“Anyone potentially eyeing higher office has got to pick their battles — with SCOTUS green-lighting a red-state gerrymander-us-out-of-democracy blitz, the elements mounting existential threats are more obvious targets,” said Amit Bagga, a Democratic political strategist.

Originally posted March 24, 2026.

… And Coming Your Way?

In the Manhattan Contrarian, Fracis Menton discusses the situation as NYC approaches the Green Energy Crisis. In a three-page memo from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to the Governor’s office, it reveals that implementation of what New York calls its “cap and invest” program — actually, an artificial scarcity program intentionally designed to drive prices up and impoverish the people that would cost every New York household thousands of dollars in increased energy costs.

The only proper response to Gov. Hochul’s piece, according to MC, is scorn and derision, and no matter how much, it still won’t be enough. The Governor and her staff approach the subject of energy policy as morons and treat voters like morons.

They have never done any credible assessment of either feasibility or cost of the Climate Act mandates. Now that the mandates are approaching, it is obvious that they cannot be achieved at any remotely reasonable cost; but our leaders have no plan forward. Their only idea is to pretend that the Climate Act plan is real when it is not, and that it is moving forward when it is not, and then postpone the hard deadlines until after the current Governor is gone.

Mr. Menton gives readers a few choice quotes, with thoughtful translations:

Gov. Hochul: All New Yorkers should be immensely proud that their home state is a national leader for clean energy and climate action. As Governor, I take that role very seriously, knowing it is our mission to leave our world better than we inherited it… Since I have been Governor, more than $88.7 billion has been invested in clean energy through programs that have made us an example for the rest of the nation.

MC Translation: We have wasted $88.7 billion of taxpayer dollars on wind and solar projects and related infrastructure that are completely useless. (Hochul doesn’t break down how much of the $88.7 billion is New York taxpayer money versus federal.) For a fraction of that money, we could have re-powered our natural gas power plants into more efficient combined-cycle plants, but we didn’t do that because the enviro zealots were against it, and we do whatever they say without ever considering whether it makes sense.

Gov. Hochul: President Trump has denied the science, calling climate change a hoax. Just this week, he again vowed to block all new offshore wind projects and is actively attempting to dismantle those already under construction. At the same time, the federal government is also canceling grants and tax credits for solar and wind, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other pollution-reduction initiatives while rolling back key scientific findings and regulations that would have helped the nation move toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Without a federal partner, there is only so much states can do on their own. . . . The fact is, we will be dealing with a White House outright hostile toward renewable energy for at least another three years, making it impossible for us to meet our targets without imposing higher costs on homeowners, renters, and businesses.

MC Translation: We claimed to be the “climate leader,” but in fact we never had any intention of spending much, if any of our own money on this, and we were planning to stick almost all the exorbitant cost to the federal taxpayers. Now that President Trump has nixed that scam, we realize that this is completely unaffordable. So we will call President Trump a bunch of nasty names, even though we must admit that he is completely right on this issue.

[A]dvocates . . . took the extreme step of suing the state to force it to issue regulations to meet the Climate Act’s 2030 emission reductions targets. A judge agreed and ruled that the state must swiftly issue regulations to achieve what now would be costly and unattainable targets, unless the law is changed. . . . We need more time, and so I am proposing we amend the law to require regulations to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions to be issued at the end of 2030.

MC Translation: I’m running for another term, which will likely be my last. The final day of that term is 31 December 2030. So let’s make that the mandated date for Climate Act compliance regulations to take effect. I will do nothing, and the next guy will take office on 1 January 2031 and find him or herself immediately in default and under court injunction to do something. HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

A World of Make Believe

Meanwhile, asks the MC, what about “we need more time?” For what?

Nothing significant about this is going to be any different four years from now. Electricity generation from wind and sun will still be intermittent and in need of full backup to be usable on the grid. Cost of energy storage may fall a little, but nothing near the factor of a hundred or more that would be needed for a wind/solar/ storage grid to be an economically viable replacement for a grid powered by dispatchable generators. The magical “dispatchable emissions-free resources” talked about by New York energy bureaucrats will be no closer to existence than they are today.

Nothing About Green Energy Transition Is Real…

… except for the ongoing costs getting stuck to the taxpayers and ratepayers. Gov. Hochul and her bureaucratic posse — have no idea what they are doing, so they are closing their eyes and hoping the whole thing goes away.

If the Climate Act deadlines were a stand-alone piece of legislation, it would likely need to go through public hearings at the Capitol, and it would attract substantial attention. So watch for this to treated as part of the “budget” negotiations and emerge as one piece in a massive omnibus budget bill with little or no further mention.

Meanwhile, continues Mr. Menton, “tens of billions of taxpayer and ratepayer dollars continue to be wasted on useless wind turbines and solar panels and grid-scale batteries and additional transmission and delivery infrastructure. I guess we can be thankful that it’s only tens of billions, versus the hundreds of billions that would have been wasted if the federal taxpayers remained on the hook.”

Morons on the Loose …
Debbie Young

When you look at today’s U.S. Treasury bill (T-bill) rates, you’re seeing a different picture compared to longer bonds.

Your Survival Guy learned about T-bills or the risk-free rate of return at Babson. Dick Young refers to it as his North Star. It’s an easy way to get a lay of the land.

How is your lazy cash doing? Is it sitting on your couch or in a checking account earning next to nothing? Is it time for a summer job?

Action Line: If you’re looking to put your extra cash to work, let me know. Email me at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com. And click here to subscribe to my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter.

Originally posted on Your Survival Guy. 

Does Your Lazy Cash Need a Summer Job?
E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

FBI Director Kash Patel has announced historic declines in crime during President Trump’s first year in office. The FBI announced:

On May 13, 2026, the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program released the First Look: 2025 Crime Data on the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer (CDE). These estimates are based on data submitted by more than 17,000 agencies, covering 96% of the population, for 2025. This increased from 16,675 agencies in 2024. More than 15,000 agencies submitted data via the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) for 2025. These agencies cover nearly 90% of the population. Nearly 500 more agencies reported via NIBRS in 2025 compared to 2024.

This historic early release provides an overview of preliminary 2025 crime statistics and trends. The preliminary data show violent crime decreased an estimated 9.3% from 2024 to 2025.

• Murder and non-negligent manslaughter decreased an estimated 18.1%
• Rape decreased an estimated 7.6%.
• Robbery decreased an estimated 18.5%.
• Aggravated assault decreased an estimated 7.2%.

Property crime decreased an estimated 12.4% from 2024 to 2025.

“The 2025 crime data in this report shows the single largest decrease in violent crime and murder since 1937 – as well as huge decreases across the board in terms of aggravated assault, rape, and robbery,” said FBI Director Kash Patel. “Over the last 14 months, we made major transformations at the FBI, and these results show those changes are working. This FBI will continue to stack these wins for the American people under President Trump and always Back the Blue every step of the way.”

May is the earliest the FBI has been able to release preliminary annual crime trends. An early release is possible, in part, due to our transition to monthly data releases.

“The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program is proud to announce this historic early look at annual crime figures,” said FBI Criminal Justice Information Services Division Assistant Director Tim Ferguson. “This early release demonstrates the FBI’s commitment to transparency while also ensuring we provide the necessary time and care for accurate data in the annual report.”

The data are considered preliminary and are subject to change prior to the release of Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2025, which is slated for later this year.

Patel posted on X.com about the decline in crime:

Thanks to @DC_Reporter – this FBI is full throttle and the historic results show it – 20% drop in the national homicide rate, 112% increase in violent crime arrests, 31% more fentanyl seized, 30% more child abusers off American streets, and more.

President Trump makes it all…

— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) May 19, 2026

The FBI’s full presentation is below:

Crime Plummets Under Trump Administration
Richard C. Young

The Office of the Under Secretary of War for Research and Engineering selected Shield AI to integrate its Hivemind autonomy software into the LUCAS program, a new class of low-cost, one-way attack drones designed for mass deployment.

Hivemind will act as an “AI pilot,” allowing groups of drones to coordinate, adapt, and operate together in real time under the control of a single operator. The goal is to enable large-scale drone swarms that can overwhelm enemy defenses while keeping humans focused on overall mission decisions.

The system is designed for “collaborative autonomy,” where drones independently handle navigation and coordination, dynamically adjust to battlefield conditions, and execute missions even in environments with limited communications. A demonstration is planned for later this year.

Shield AI also notes that Hivemind is already being used across multiple US and allied defense platforms, highlighting its growing role in autonomous and networked warfare systems.

U.S. “Shahed-Style” Drone Program Gets AI to Overwhelm Air Defenses
Steve Schneider