In news reports from tanker tracking groups, they confirm what President Trump has been saying: Adm. Brad Cooper and the forces of U.S. Central Command have turned around the battle of the Strait of Hormuz.

Where the Oil Went

Data shows that the seven-day average for oil clearing the Strait is 14.19 million barrels a day. That happens to be approaching the prewar baseline of 17.13. The missing barrels are Iranian oil exports stopped by the U.S. blockade.

This is what progress looks like, reports the Journal’s editorial board. “Iran’s oil is blocked while the world’s oil increasingly gets through.” The effort has been to reduce pressure on the West and its Gulf allies; meanwhile, Iran scrounges for money. The regime is rapidly running out of oil already on the sea from before or between blockades. Payments, however, will have a longer lag. Mid-October is when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates the Iranians will deliver the last of this oil to China.

Iran Losing Lifelines

Along the way, Mr. Bessent has been tightly squeezing Iran’s other trade partners. Felt most acutely in the United Arab Emirates, which responded by cutting off trade with Iran. Then there’s Turkey, which is closing Iranian banks. The region is also closing its skies to Tehran by suspending flights.

Is it any wonder that Iran’s currency set another record low? On Tuesday, it plummeted past 2.5 million rials to the dollar. In 2018, the rial began at 25,000 to the dollar and in 2026 near 1.5 million. The Journal reports the rial has fallen nearly 140% on an annual basis since the resumption of the U.S. blockade. As oil-export revenue dries up and goods become harder to import with tightening sanctions, Iran’s economy struggles.

“Once you understand that this is a military mission, that the numbers cited by Energy Secretary Chris Wright aren’t estimates but are the no-kidding barrel counts reported to the U.S. Navy by ship captains,” says Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “you understand very quickly that open-source tools are wrong and the President is right. We control the Strait of Hormuz.” Mr. Goldberg also was far ahead of most analysts in hailing the success of US measures in Hormuz.

An October Surprise?

By no means, continues the Journal, is Iran done shooting. U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center on Wednesday reported three successful attacks on ships, and markets are pricing in Iranian escalation.

No one should expect the regime to sit idle while it loses its leverage.

• Iran may still be able to knock out significant Gulf energy infrastructure.

• The global diesel shortage persists, leading to surging prices

• But Iran’s main goal and boast in this war, seizing the Strait, is being reversed.

• The challenge now is to sustain the pressure and push the U.S. tactical advantage to accomplish strategic objectives—finishing the nuclear program or the regime itself.

The President is Right about the Strait of Hormuz
Debbie Young

It wasn’t that long ago that a pension manager explained he had bought more commercial real estate for the fund because “real estate always goes up.”

Then COVID-19 hit.

Flyover states became more attractive.

And unlike New York under Mamdani, those states welcomed businesses. Now, commercial real estate in New York City is a disaster. To boot, that pension manager sold an S&P 500 investment to raise money for real estate.

These are the people managing money for retired teachers, police officers, and firefighters. You really can’t make it up.

Now, the big shots are trying to unload private equity and credit “investments” they thought “couldn’t miss” but in fact are badly underwater. That loud sucking sound you hear is the sound of prices and buyers vanishing down the drain.

And so, guess what? They want to unload this crap into your 401(k) or your kids’ 401(k)s. Not cool. Pay attention here.

What never ceases to amaze me is how, in everyday life, investors would never allow themselves to be taken to the cleaners like this.

But when it comes to money, something happens. Investors get blindsided by reckless investments. You know, the “can’t-miss opportunities.”

They can’t miss until they do.

Action Line: Don’t be blindsided. When you need advice, email me at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com.

Originally posted on Your Survival Guy.

Don’t Be Blindsided by the “Smart” Guys
E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Power your week with Instrumentals Soul-Style 2 this week. Enjoy! – Dick Young

Music to Power Your Week
rcyltd

Rhode Island-based REGENT Craft has expanded its collaboration with the U.S. Marine Corps Warfighting Lab by an additional $5 million, bringing the partnership’s total value to $19.25 million. The latest phase will focus on demonstrating REGENT’s full-scale electric Seaglider prototype in operationally relevant environments and advancing command-and-control integration for defense missions.

The Seagliders are designed for contested logistics, transporting personnel and equipment quickly without relying on runways. REGENT says its Viceroy Seaglider can reach speeds of up to 180 mph, operate from water, and use rechargeable electric propulsion with reduced heat and infrared signatures. The Viceroy prototype also completed a flight in Narragansett Bay on September 2, 2026, marking a key milestone in its testing program.

Regent Demo Day – October 1st, 2026

REGENT’s Demo Day drew more than 600 investors, customers, government and defense leaders, suppliers, and journalists from six continents to witness the Viceroy Seaglider fly and tour the company’s newly opened factory. The event highlighted growing interest in REGENT’s electric seaglider technology and the expanding support behind its development and commercialization.

Electric Seagliders Take Flight for Defense
Steve Schneider

Brazilians voted in the first round of their presidential election this weekend, and Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the country’s former firebrand President Jair Bolsonaro, gained millions more votes than current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Lula Da Silva has been a strong ally to the Democratic Party in America, while the Bolsonaro family is close with President Trump.

Bolsonaro edges past Lula as Brazil vote goes to run-off

Right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro pulled off a surprise first-place finish ahead of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s Brazilian election, receiving 47% of the votes to the incumbent’s 45%. The two candidates will face off again in a 25 October run-off

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) October 5, 2026

A win for Bolsonaro in the second round would mark another in a long line of conservative wins in South America during President Trump’s second term. President Trump noted the election’s fast count, writing on Truth Social:

125 Million People voted today in the first round of Brazil’s Presidential Election. The results came out shortly after the vote closed, on the SAME DAY! In Detroit, Philadelphia, California, and numerous other U.S. Cities and States, the results, with much smaller numbers, will often take weeks to Rig, I mean, calculate. Voting in America is CORRUPT!!! President DJT

Bolsonaro Rocks Lula Da Silva in Brazil First Round Election
The Editors

In the WSJ, its editorial board writes that President Donald Trump has the right instincts; he understands the stakes in the AI race with China.

Not so Senate Democrats, continues the Board. This week Democrats torpedoed legislation to create a framework for data centers to fully cover their share of the electric grid’s costs. Why? Because the bill doesn’t strangle AI with regulation.

This week President Trump met with AI execs to sign what the President called a “morally binding” compact to self-police. The Washington press corps instead apparently thinks Trump should be calling for the heads of AI executives on pikes. The AI execs are urging a federal takeover of AI under the guise of safety. President Trump is striking a more sensible path, thinks the editorial board.

According to the AI compact, “Every company is responsible for developing its own technology safely and in a way that builds trust with customers and the public.” Its signatories agree to develop “robust” internal monitoring of models, use outside auditors to test them, and designate an independent board committee to oversee the internal safety team, the Journal reports.

This pact is voluntary and more or less concedes the limitations and drawbacks of government regulation, especially in the face of open-weight Chinese models that needn’t abide by U.S. laws. One of the largest, most serious risks is that “bad actors use Chinese models for destructive purposes.” “The best defense is for U.S. models,” continues the Journal, “to develop fast enough to detect and counter such attacks. No regulatory plan we’ve seen would do better against rogues.”

The Guardrail

“The Department of Justice,” President Trump allowed this week.

A Sword Hanging over Them

New laws aren’t needed to punish wrongdoing or negligence. Companies know what is hanging over them. Officials at the Federal Trade Commission this week let it be known that they have opened a probe of frontier AI models to reinforce the point.

The Ratepayer Protection Act

On the other hand, Democrats want to put the federal government in charge of AI. The Journal reports: On the real reason Senate Democrats on Wednesday blocked the Ratepayer Protection Act, which the House passed last month on an overwhelming bipartisan 417-3 vote.”

What the Act Requires

The Act would require state public utility commissions to consider adopting a federal standard under which large data centers pay the incremental costs of new grid infrastructure to support their power loads. The Board thinks this legislation is unnecessary since most states are already doing this. “AI companies are building their own power generation and paying for grid upgrades to connect data centers.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer objected to the bill because it isn’t binding. “Senate Democrats want to make it mandatory for data centers to cover their own costs, by law, not by suggestion or hope or whim,” he said.

“No,” counters the Journal, “they want to block data centers to put AI development under political control.”

Bernie Sanders’s bill, which would pause data-center construction until the government ensures they don’t “exacerbate the threat of climate change” and their models “do not threaten the health and well-being of working families, privacy and civil rights, and the future of humanity” or cause “job displacement.”

Bernie’s legislation reflects the growing Democratic consensus.

Had Kamala Harris won the 2024 election, it’s likely the federal government would have used its power to impose a de facto AI moratorium.

“When it comes to AI, Mr. Trump has superior intelligence,” praises the Journal.

Going with the Right Instincts
Debbie Young

Happy Friday. Your Survival Guy is excited about the seventh annual Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week. I can hear the supercars howling and growling in the distance as they make their way past First Beach into town. If Pebble Beach is the West Coast’s automotive crown jewel, Newport’s Audrain Concours is the East Coast’s must-attend event.

OK, let’s talk about bonds, especially short-term ones. They haven’t been this attractive in years, yet the headlines scream fear. To me, that’s a barometer for the ages. Remember, it’s hard to go against the masses and the headlines. Somehow, some way, you need to gather the conviction to do what’s right for you. Sometimes, a conversation with someone you trust can help.

How about the Fed? If, in fact, it’s on hold for the rest of the year when it comes to rate increases, understand that inflation is here regardless. It’s just a matter of how much. To be clear, I like Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and feel that he could be a current-day version of inflation slayer Paul Volcker. But government, on both sides of the aisle, has a history of destroying the dollar. Make sure you have a plan in place to fight back.

Look at what’s happened since the gold window closed.

OK, here we go. The more Your Survival Guy sees self-interested tech eggheads and clueless politicians voice their concerns about AI, the more I like AI.

I mean, come on: Who are they more concerned about—themselves or you and me? Answer: It’s not you and me.

The truth about AI isn’t what they’re selling you. Let this play out. Let the markets determine the winners and losers—not those directly in line to benefit from their own hysteria.

Action Line: It’s an exciting time to be living your retirement life. Make it a good one. I know many of you are. Need help? Email me at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com.

Originally posted on Your Survival Guy.

Supercars, Bonds, the Value of the Dollar, and You
E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

On The WORD with Finain Cunningham, Cunningham discusses the recently signed deal between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland with James Jatras. According to Cunningham, the deal was a compromise to give Trump a “win” on Greenland and allow NATO to focus on Russia as a single unit. Watch their discussion below:

Greenland Deal: Quieting NATO, Quieting Trump
The Editors

The new US-Denmark-Greenland agreement marks a major shift in Arctic security after more than a year of tensions over Greenland’s strategic status. Rather than transferring territory to the United States, the agreement allows the US to expand and modernize its military presence, including at Pituffik Space Base, and to establish new defense sites at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig. Greenland retains its sovereignty and right to self-determination, while the agreement provides a longer-term framework for US and NATO security cooperation.

The deal also strengthens the US position against potential Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic. A key provision reportedly prevents non-NATO countries from establishing military bases or exploiting Greenland’s minerals without approval from the US, Denmark, and Greenland. The expanded military presence could improve early-warning and missile-defense capabilities, strengthen surveillance of the GIUK Gap, and help monitor Russian submarines and Chinese activity in the High North.

Strategically, the new facilities could also turn the GIUK Gap into an even more important Arctic maritime chokepoint. With deeper US access at Narsarsuaq and expanded capabilities across Greenland, American forces could potentially monitor and track Russian submarines and other vessels moving between the Arctic and North Atlantic. Combined with Greenland’s location along potential missile and shipping routes, the agreement could give the US and NATO greater control over a critical gateway while limiting opportunities for Russia and China to expand their presence in the region.

New Arctic Chokepoint Emerges From Greenland Deal
Steve Schneider

It looks good on paper, but it needs stronger execution.

As Karl Rove reports in the WSJ,

• Remind voters that President Trump has achieved what he wanted to do
• Show voters that Democrats lack a governing vision

James Blair, President Trump’s political chief, admits that “domestic economic pressure” will be central to the upcoming campaign. Blair, however, believes there will not be “a blue wave at all,” based on the President’s achievements and the economy’s underlying strength. With the country narrowly divided and few players to move around, it will come down to “trench warfare” in battleground contests.

The Problem

John McLaughlin backs Mr. Blair’s thinking. McLaughlin, a pollster, says the challenge is to keep it from becoming a referendum on Donald Trump. Instead, he says, make it a “contrast election.”

The problem is, a successful strategy must be executed properly on all fronts.

Many things can’t be calculated until after election day, “such as how effectively Team Trump will have wielded its financial advantage.” Yes, fundraising totals for GOP groups and MAGA dwarf those of Democratic candidates, parties, and political-action committees. An open question is whether Republicans deploy this well and before voter opinions harden.

Apparently, GOP get-out-the-vote operations are well planned, while the Democratic National Committee’s is flailing. Whatever mechanical advantages the GOP has could be offset by the raw emotion of Democrats eager to vote against the president.

What can be measured in real time is messaging. Rove writes that this past month, “it’s been awful.”

… given Mr. Trump’s poor approval numbers, he has to drive home each day what the GOP has accomplished and will accomplish—and clearly contrast that with what Democrats believe and promise. Instead, we’ve gotten off-putting confusion.

It Was Crickets

Just start in early September: Trump promised to give every adult $ 5,000 if the GOP won. No prior consultation with congressional Republicans and conflicting explanations on how it would be paid. No choir of supportive voices had been organized to cheer the idea, writes Rove.

Not a Good Look

On Sept. 14, Donald Trump Jr. confirmed to the media that a Russian oligarch paid for his lavish post-wedding celebrations.

Voters Are Whipsawed

The President announced that “Iranian leaders want to make a deal.” Six days later, he said he might have to “annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly.”

No voter wants to see the Kennedy Center ending up “being ripped down.”

Lawsuits Proceed

When the president banned CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House press room, a judge soon restored access with a temporary restraining order. The outlets’ lawsuit against the administration proceeds.

A Lovefest

Trump makes it hard to make Mayor Mamdani a pariah—and tarnish Democrats by extension—when Mr. Trump says the self-described socialist has “great potential.”

These items and more – from the White House dinner honoring Xi Jinping to government money used to run partisan ads – will help form a blue wave.

Without better application, writes Mr. Rove, Trump’s campaign theory will come to nothing.

The White House has to do better, notes Mr. Rove,  starting now.

Democrats Lack a Governing Vision
Debbie Young