Hey everyone — RickJ here. It’s been a minute since I’ve posted anything on the site, but not that MLB picks is active I wanted to come back with something worth reading rather than just noise. Life out here in Las Vegas stays busy, and between running the Sports handicapping picks operation, keeping up with the investment side of things, actually watching the games, getting my pickleball in three times a week, and dealing with my HOA — which deserves its own post someday — the blog sometimes gets pushed to the back burner. But I’m back, and I’ve got a lot to catch you up on.

Let me start with the numbers, including season to date for MLB picks, because that’s what this is all about.

NCAA Football wrapped up a few months back. On the sides, I went 45-36-1 — a solid winning record I’m genuinely happy with over the course of a long college football season. Totals were a rougher ride at 5-11, and I’ll be straight with you: the totals market in college ball has gotten tougher, and I wasn’t sharp enough there. I’ll own it.

The NFL season was cleaner. Sides finished 20-15, which is a profitable margin in a league where sharp edges are hard to find. No complaints there.

NCAA Basketball ran long and deep this year. Sides ended at 47-44-4 for the season, which is a winning mark across a massive volume of games. Totals were a struggle at 5-8-1 — again, a category I need to tighten up. The tournament was a small sample, just a few plays, and it didn’t go the way I wanted: Totals 1-2-1, Sides 0-1. Tournament basketball is a different animal and I treated it that way, keeping my exposure limited. Its been a great contributor to Sports handicapping picks.

MLB Picks – 2026 Season Update

Now here’s where things are getting interesting: MLB picks 2025 is underway and we’re off to a real good start. Through the games so far, I’m sitting at 14-12 on sides (+8.51 units) and 13-12-2 on totals (-1.65 units), for a combined +6.86 units and a 13.45% ROI. Early in the season, but I’ll take it. Baseball is a grind — 162 games, six months — and starting with positive ROI and units up is exactly where you want to be.

Right now I’m active on MLB picks every day. I’m putting out roadmaps — full breakdowns of every game on the slate — plus my actual plays, all going out via email and through the RickJSports Discord channel. NBA and NHL are still in their seasons too, and I’m covering those as well. NCAA Basketball just concluded for the year, so attention shifts pretty fully to the diamond and the hardwood and the ice. The Discord covers everything related to Sports handicapping picks.

One thing I’ve added that a lot of you have really responded to is the investing side. I run a second Discord channel called RickJInvest where I post market commentary, trade ideas, and my own positioning. It’s not a picks service — it’s a conversation about what I’m watching and doing with my own money. This channel is included with all paid subscriptions at no extra cost. If you’re into markets as much as sports, you’ll get something out of it.

Speaking of subscriptions — here’s the structure: it’s $49 a month, $24 a week, or $499 for the full year. Signing up is simple — just use the PayPal button right on the home page at rickjshandicappingpicks.com. But the thing I want you to hear, because no other handicapper I know of does this: if I do not have a winning season, I will refund 50% of your subscription. Not a credit, not a promo — a real refund. I’ve been doing this for over 20 years and accountability is the one thing that separates the real ones from the guys just selling dreams. You deserve to know the person you’re trusting with your money has real skin in the game. I do.

If you want to sign up, have questions, or just want to talk ball, reach out directly at riccja3@gmail.com. You can also find me on Discord in the RickJSports and RickJInvest channels. Come hang out — it’s a good group of people who take this seriously without taking themselves too seriously.

Glad to be back. Let’s have a run.

— RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com

The one I had been using gave us a lot of profit over the 4 to 5 years or so I had been using it. The new database I tried last season, for whatever reason did not work out well.

So this season I went with day of game plays in MLB, similar to what I do in all sports. Except I tweaked it a bit to where I felt it would produce steady profits with a lot less variance. In gambling that is not easy to do.

But so far this season it has worked out, here are the season to date results for MLB up the all star break:

2025 Season

March
Sides 0-2 -2.00

April
Sides 3-3 +.69

May 2-0 +2.52
Totals 0-3-1 -3.10

June
Sides 7-5 +6.86
Totals 11-8-1 +.55

July
Sides 1-2 +0.44
Totals 2-1 +0.90

Season to date:
Sides: 14-12 +8.51
Totals: 13-12-2 -1.65
Combined: 27-24-2 +6.86 ROI 13.45%

A few things to note. The number of plays has diminished substantially from when I was posting overnight plays and no day of game plays. This was an expected by product of the shift.

Making money in handicapping is no easy go of it:) MLB for me has always been the toughest sport since I began posting plays online some 20+ years ago. Time certainly goes by fast. It seems like just yesterday I was posting on 2+2 every day.

Well I am still at it:) And still tweaking when necessary. I think I have a method now in MLB that will produce perhaps 5 to 10 units over the season. And one where you will not see the 1o to 15 unit downswings periodically. We will see:)

In the meantime this season as with last season MLB and all sports until the beginning of college football is FREE. I have taken the protected discord directories that were open only to subscribers and made them public.

I did this for both RickJSports and RickJInvest my two discord channels. In addition for those that wanted to join during the free period, I am sending out plays also to everyone via email using rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com

If you wish to join us for the 2nd half of MLB, for FREE, just send me an email and I will send you an invite to my Discord channels and place you on the email list. Then when the first game of NCAA FB begins , the plays will go back to subscription based.

I will take all Subscribers using paypal off of pause and they will pick up right where they were when we went to free. Everyone that is using the free period will have plenty of time to subscribe if they choose to. But once the first game of NCAA FB is to start, free signons, will be discontinued and those taking advantage of it will be deleted.

As far as next years MLB I have not decided whether to have it free or subscription. A lot will depend on how we end up this season, and my analysis of the results during the off season.

If anyone has any questions you can contact me at riccja3@gmail.com , that is usually the best email to get my attention. I am in the process of setting up a chat server on my site, one a bit more sophisticated then what I have now. So, when that is done you will be able to communicate with me on the website.

As those that have been with me for 20+ years know, handicapping sports is a passion of mine. You can find a 2+2 article on handicapping the NFL I wrote in Two Plus Two Magazine, Vol. 7, No. 12 on the top menu of this site. A person that I played poker with at the time worked actively with 2+2 and asked me to write an article. I at first was reluctant, but the more I got to know the person, the more I was comfortable doing it. We became friends and had some very interesting conversations at the poker table.

One of them happened when we were sitting next to each other at an Omaha 8 game at the Bellagio. It was a lively game, and I had an incredible run of good cards only to find myself down about six racks in a short period of time:) (there is a downside of getting good cards).  He turned to me in bewilderment asking when I was going to quit. I responded , what is the difference if you downswing in poker occurs in one session or 3 months? It is just variance. And if I am playing well and the game is good there is no reason to quit. He was impressed with the response, and told me after 2 racks he gets mad:) So he quits.

Those are the types of conversations I enjoy having. There are not enough people around that you can talk to in that way and they understand unfortunately:)

Hope you enjoyed this short story, and I hope to see you join us for the 2nd half of MLB. Follow along and see if this might be for you.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Discord: RickJSports

RickJInvest

I did this last  year because of the database I used going out of business. So until

I get a reliable database, the overnights are going to be few and far between. I am going back to traditional day of game plays, using a different model.

If it turns out to produce solid results then I will consider putting it back on the active sport list. But for now its free.

The results are in for last season on many sports. Here is the breakdown:

2024/25 NCAA Hoops
November
Totals 0-5
Sides 0-1

Dec
2-1

Jan
20-20-1

Feb
17-15-3

March
Totals 2-0Sides  8-4

NCAA BB Tourn
Totals 1-2-1
Sides 0-1

Combined
Totals 5-8-1
Sides 47-44-4

NBA 2024/2025

October Sides 0-1

November Sides 2-3

December Sides 0-1

February Sides 1-1

Combined Sides 3-6

NCAA FB Results 2024
Sides 4-0
Totals 1-2

Wk 3
Sides 3-5
Totals 0-1

Wk 4
Sides 2-5
Totals 1-1

Wk 5
Sides 4-4
Totals 1-3

Wk 6
Sides 4-4
Totals 0-2

Wk 7
Sides 4-1

Wk 8
Sides 2-3
Totals 0-1

Wk 9
Sides 2-3

Wk 10
Sides 5-1

Wk 11
Sides 3-2

Wk 12

Sides 4-2-1

Wk 13

Sides 1-2
Totals 1-1

Wk 14
Sides 2-3
Totals 1-0

Post Season
Sides 5-1

Combined Season to date
Sides 45-36 -1
Totals 5-11

NFL Wk 1
Sides 1-0
Top 5 Contest Picks 2-2-1
All Spread Contest  10-6

Wk 2
Sides 1-1
Top 5 Contest Picks 2-3
All Spread Contest  8-8

Wk 3
Sides 2-0
Top 5 contest Picks 2-3
All Spread Contest  9-7

Wk 4
Sides 2-1
Top 5 contest Picks 3-2
All Spread Contest  10-6

Wk 5
Sides 1-1
Top 5 Contest Picks 2-3
All Spread Contest 7-6 ( NO +5.5 left)

Wk 6
Sides 0-3
Top 5 Contest Picks 1-4
All Spread Contest 1-13!!!

Wk 7
Sides 0-2
Top 5 Contest Picks 1-4
All Spread Contest 4-9

Wk 8
Sides 2-0
Top 5 Contest Picks 4-0 with Giants left tonight
All spread contest 6-9 (still in free fall)

Wk 9
Sides 0-1
Top 5  2-3
All Spread  5-10

Wk 10

Sides  0-1
Top 5  3-2
All Spread 7-7

Wk 11
Sides 1-1
Top 5 2-3
All Spread 6-7

Wk 12
Sides 1-0
Top 5 3-2
All Spread 8-6

Wk 13
Sides 2-0
Top 5 3-2
All Spread 6-9

Wk 14
Sides 1-2
Top 5 2-3
All Spread 6-7

Wk 16
Sides 1-2

Wk 17
Sides 2-0

Wk 18
Sides 3-0

Season to date
Sides 20-15

Top 5 Contest Picks 31-36`
All Spread Contest 94-114 ( 137th out of 147 entries) #1 is 127-81. My worse showing ever in this contest. So bad, I am going to have to rethink how I am picking every game:)

NHL

Novermber
1-0 +141
December
3-1  +320
Jan
2-1  +128
Feb
No plays
Mar
2-3 -41

Season to Date:
8-5 + 528

To Join our group for the MLB season, just send me an email to riccja3@gmail.com and I will add you to the email list, and both Discord channels. Plays and discussion are found in the Discord area, while plays only in the emails.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com 

Week 1 was good to us with a 3-0 weekend. Two big dogs won outright and A big dog stayed under the number by 1.

Now that I have switched over to Discord, all my channels except plays are open to the public by invite. So, all but 3 channels in RickJSports and 1 channel in RickJInvest can be joined for free.

You can follow along and add to the discussion, the only thing is the plays are only open to subscribers.

Just send me an email to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com and I can send you an invite.

If you wish to subscribe and get in before game 1, just go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com and signup via paypal. I will have you added in quickly.

Also any questions should be sent to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. My other gmail account has been taken over by spam, so it is easy to miss emails there.

Lets have a great season!

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Discord:

RickJSports

RickJInvest

MLB was free until the first game of college football was played, now we are back to subscription only. 

So far the transition has gone smoothly, with subscribers set up to receive plays and road maps via email, Discord and Slack.

Many have made the transition back, and some are waiting until the NFL season begins. But everything is in place for subscribers to come back with the least amount of difficulties getting added back into the system.

The best way to reach me is at rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. That is the only email right now that is not inundated with spam emails. Political season has brought about an avalanche of political emails:) But the above email address is one that I check and have no difficulty seeing new emails.

Discord has a complete breakdown of all my results dating back to when I began putting out handicapping plays some 20 + years ago. It does not take a subscription to get a discord invite. The only channels that are private are the two play channels and the Road Map channel.

The remaining channels are free channels for all to provide their input and ask questions on.

The channels cover a wide range of subjects which all I ask is civility. They are free speech channels. All viewpoints are welcome.

With that in mind if you wish to join the discord channels send me an email, and I will send you out an invite. This will not get you into the subscription only channels. For those you need to subscribe. The method has not changed. Go to Rickjshandicappingpicks.com and use the dropdown paypal menu on the home page. Some choose the yearly subscription at 499.00, while most choose the monthly at 49.00 a month.

Since I eliminated specials a number of years ago as it was making the yearly subscribers a bit uncomfortable with that choice, you save two months if you stay a year.

Again if anyone has any questions or wish an invite rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com is the place to email me.

Good luck this upcoming football season.

Rick

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Discord:

RickJSports

RickJInvest

My transition over to Discord is complete, and now it will be the book keeping as we approach the beginning of College football to restrict access to subscribers only.

MLB was free for a number of reasons. When ever I switch to a new data base I do not charge for the season. This has never occurred before, as I have been using the same database since I started handicapping MLB. But this season the company I used went out of business, so I had to scramble for the data I needed.

This is no small task. Though there are many companies that sell data, finding the reliable ones is like finding a needle in a haystack. I will not bore you with all the considerations involved, but there are many.

In any event MLB has been as usual a grueling season. This one being no exception. For the first time it looks like the overnight plays are not going to show a profit.  Whether this is because of the new database or something else I will have to figure out during the off season. I already am exploring other options for databases for the next season.

The good news for Overnight MLB is that they are beating the closing line at a 72.77 % rate. That is a solid beat. That means 72.77% of the time the wager you make will be better than what you can get when the line closes.( game time). The avg amount is .0893 which is a healthy difference.

This is based upon 198 overnight Sides this season. But even with this , we are -17.33 units on the over night sides. We had one nice rally up, about 8 units, but it has been a pretty steady negative drain for the season. Our same day totals, that used to be a bedrock, last season let us down, and this season is -2.80 units with only 13 plays. So far there is no reason to believe that these will turnaround and start producing positive results soon.

MLB remains Free until 8/24/2024. A few days before that date I will start changing out both the email list and the slack and discord channels to only  be available to subscribers.

For those of you whose subscription was paused, you will start up right where you left off. I will send you an email if that includes you with the dates. For the rest the way to subscribe will be through the website rickjshandicappingpicks.com  using the paypal dropdown menu. All subscriptions have a 3 day free trial. Subscribers typically take the 49.00 monthly subscription which includes:

1. All plays for all sports active during the subscription period
2. Access to Discord and the message subheadings. This has the plays along with active discussions on a variety of topics
3. Add on to the email list where plays are sent to in addition to the Discord postings
4. Access to RickJInvest discord channel that include daily commentary and most of my trades. Along with a description of how I approach the markets.
5. The market posts typically contain charts, along with comments, and over the weekend , news that i consider important for the upcoming week.

I have been posting my plays no online for over 20 years on rickjshandicappingpicks.com. I do not advertise, my subscriber base is word of mouth. I have had subscribers that have been with me since I started.

My site is much different than others, as mine is all inclusive, and there is no large fee to pay up front, but a small monthly subscription that can be cancelled at the end of the monthly period. Most sports you pay up front for the season, it includes one sport, so when you are finished the cost can run well into several thousand dollars.

I will match my results up with any site out there.

If you have any questions, feel free to email me at rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. That is the best way to get through to me.

So, for the next few weeks the site will remain free, and then I will transition back to the subscription service in time for college football.

Hope to see you join us for a fun football season.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Discord: RickJSports

Discord: RickJInvest

7/8
A lot to go over this morning. It is 2:00 AM here in Vegas:) My sleeping schedule is reversed from what it was when I was playing poker full time. Now I am early to bed and up between 1 and 2 AM to start the day. The first hour is going over the overnight plays in MLB, then during the week the next few hours are getting ready for the trading day. Then On Monday and Friday I leave the house for 5:30 A.M. Pickleball:) 1.5 hours of play and its back home to finish out the trading day:)
[1:56 AM] When I was playing poker full time it was the exact opposite. The motto is you can adjust to about any routine that fits into your routine that you pick for your daily activities. Once you settle into it, you do not think anything of it anymore.
[1:58 AM] We start the week with a lot of news from last week, and we get no vacation from the news cycle this week, or perhaps any week heading into the November elections. But one overwhelming theme is that heading into November elections, the powers that run this country are not going to allow a market crash. They will do everything they can to keep this bull market intact, and interest rates from rising. After November however all bets are off. As depending on who wins will set the course for monetary policy for the next four years.
[1:59 AM] In other words, take advantage of the tail wind while it is still there, as once it is removed, look out below:)

Starting out with the monthly chart of $SPX, you can see the almost straight up move of the index Beginning in October of 2022
[2:04 AM]

In Dec of 2021 the Fed decided to reduce its balance sheet which resulted in a year pullback. Then in October of 2022, although their rhetoric was hawkish, they slowly started to reverse course resulting in this run. The lesson is, do not fight the fed. As a trader you need to be aware of not what they are saying, but what they are actually doing!
[2:06 AM] I do not put a lot of weight on the week to week reports that come out as most are fictious numbers, which are adjusted substantially a month later. But a lot of traders do pay attention to them and react to them, so it becomes important to know what they are reporting, not for reality, but the messaging and clues they provide.
[2:08 AM] For instance the non farm payrolls was revised down by 57000 jobs for April. That is a big miss:) If I were in business and I was off that much I would not have a job very long.

riccja — Today at 2:09 AM
Usually the initial report is for the messaging, then the revision comes in about the same time as the new report for the next month. The new report gets the headlines, and the revision is found somewhere in the small print. See how that works:)

Daily on QQQ shows new highs for this move, we had a small consolidation starting in June with a breakout late last week. FVE is healthy,

In addition the all important QQQ/SPY chart is widening. Remember this is perhaps the best chart that tells whether you have a tail wind or head wind. When QQQ out performs SPY think Tailwind:)

A lot of activity in TLT, primarily because of the mixed messaging of Powell and the gang. TLT has been reacting violently to every news item that hits lately. But as you can see from the daily chart above , while it is messy, the trend is up, which means mortgage rates are declining, at least for the time being.

riccja — Today at 2:27 AM
In order to trade effectivly you have to be able to know what reality is. That means staying away from the incessant 24/7 cable news cycle. You would be better off not watching cable news, and sticking to apolitical journalists and experts that either have their own shows on Rumble, or put out their own substacks. Unfortunately cable news has become propaganda outlets. My view is that if you could wager on the truth of what they are asserting, and wagered the opposite across the board, you would win around 80% of your wagers:) Unfortunately, they do not put out lines on most of the absurd commentary you see on Cable news.
[2:29 AM] But I have friends and family when you talk about what is going on around the world you would think you are listening to a cable news commentator. And if you make the wrong decision to engage them on any subject, you face a whirlwind of backlash. So my rule is to not engage, keep my views of reality to myself, and move ahead, trying to make successful trades that come around because many are not reality based.
[2:30 AM] Think of it as being a contrarian:)
[2:31 AM] One of the big questions out there now is whether the Fed is going to start cutting rates.

riccja — Today at 2:34 AM
It is getting late in the game for them to start cutting for election purposes. That tells me regardless of what they say, rates most likely are not going to be cut much heading into November. Why? Certainly the news is out there that would justify rate cuts. From the Geopollitical uncertainty around the world, the political dysfunction in the US, the uncertainty of the 2024 elections, the almost certain violence that will come about around election time, the pandemic (bird flu) that is starting to be talked about) , the bank failures, and of course the economic data. All in normal times would have the Fed flooding liquidity into the markets.
[2:35 AM] But not this time. We will have to wait until after November when I think the answer will be obvious.
[2:37 AM] Hint: How many times has Yellen talked about Climate change being the #1 priority of the Fed? More than once would be too much as it is not a federal reserve issue. Everytime she talks she discusses Climate change. I would suggest that after November this will become front and center again, so be forwarned.

riccja — Today at 2:49 AM

riccja — Today at 4:01 AM
So as I started today, this is going to be a busy week for news. On friday we collected $260.00 on our short put with PTLR. The trade was never at risk of closing below the strike price. I am going to focus on these types of trades where I feel there is a very high win % with a low risk of trading below the strike price. In addition, while my GME did not meet my criteria because of the quality of the company, I am going to stick to my parameters as to the company quality as it will allow me to sell calls in the event it trades below the strike price at the close on Friday. Also remember, there is still exposure in trading after the close on Friday. So pay attention to pricing after hours!!!
[4:02 AM] So for now we have our portfolio consisting of Closed end funds with quality management that trade at a significant discount to Net Asset Value.
[4:03 AM] Mean reversion is off the table for now, and now and then I trade a swing trade.
[4:04 AM] With the markets going to higher levels so quick, and the uncertainty of the political environment in the US, being prudent is at least for me the way to go.
[4:05 AM] How bad can that strategy be when cash now returns around 5% risk free:)

I typically post premarket comments about 3 times a week. In the discord channel I welcome comments and discussion. 4 years ago I added the investing portion as a no cost add on for my handicapping subscribers who also were interesting in trading.

Most of my trades are given out as I trade them. This has become a very popular addition to my handicapping group, some of who have been with me since the very beginning, over 20 years ago:)

Right now everything is free! It will stay that way until the beginning of college football.  Since I am using a new data base for overnight MLB plays I decided it would not be fair to charge for MLB until I find a solid data set. These data providers come and go, and the one I was using went:)

It is not easy to find reliable data sources. For example while we are beating the closing line by over 70% this season, we have been carrying a net loss for most of the season of around 13 units. This can of course turn, but we are at over 160 plays now, so we will see:)

And MLB for overnight sides ends the end of August. September historically has been a miserable month for Overnight Sides.

Now back to handicapping, you can take a look at what I have to offer now for free. Just send me an email to RickJ@Rickjshandicappingpicks.com and I will sign you up for the email list, and also send you an invite to my two discord channels.

Just the side comments on a variety of different issues (Health and HOAs) are worth taking a look at.

So join us at least until the end of August when you will have a chance to join us for the Football season.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

On of the most recent is the above topic. I wanted to post my first post to this channel in the hope that it will add some interesting discussion on this topic.

I have had so many friends accept whatever their Drs. tell them without a thought that I thought it would be a welcome avenue for discussion.
[2:33 AM] Let me start out by saying I am not a Dr. However, I have years of experience as a trial attorney with one of my specialties being medical negligence. I have tried to completion in front of a jury, areas ranging from orthopedic, chiropractic, OBGYN, and most other areas of medicine, both on the side of the Patient and the Physician or Hospital.
[2:35 AM] When I set foot in the courtroom usually I was the most knowledgeable on the issues as I had to be able to cross examine not only the Defendant, but their expert witnesses, who usually were well prepared. In addition the law firms they hired were some of the best in the business as they had deep pockets.
[2:37 AM] While I was with a small law firm , being the primary person to handle cases that could not be settled. It was my passion for almost 40 yrs. I lived for the courtroom battles. To me it was the game:)
[2:38 AM] So lets start things going with my first example of conventional medicine failing.

It is a common condition unfortunately, Pulmonary fibrosis. In todays medical environment, it is a death sentence. The treatments available are expensive, and all they do is attempt to slow the progression of the disease. Not only that most of the medications have a laundry list of rather severe side effects that have to be monitored closely.
[2:41 AM] So what is the problem? My question is this, how can a physician tell you that there is nothing left for them to do, and you have to accept your fate, when they do not know the etiology of the condition itself?
[2:43 AM] If they do not know what the cause of the condition that is killing you, how can they tell you to give up? They are giving up, make no mistake about it when they tell you that, but that does not mean you should. It means its time to figure it out on your own.
[2:43 AM] Not everyone has the mental acuity to do this. But that does not mean they cannot seek out others that do.
[2:45 AM] A good example, perhaps one of the best is Michael Milken, who was diagnosed with stage 4 cancer. His prognosis was poor, but with Milken he is most likely one of the smartest people alive today as to the ability to reason and problem solve.
[2:45 AM] Remember it was Ted Turner who hired him to do the CNN deal even though he had just finished serving a prison term for his bond escapades.

Milken reasoned it through, came up with a protocol that included meditation, hormone therapy and other routines and beat it rather easily. If he would have taken the advice of his physicians and restricted himself to conventional thought, most likely he would have gone the way of many others who do not have the determination to think.
[2:49 AM] Typically people with pulmonary fibrosis, are older individuals, in my friends situation he is around 80. The onset was sudden and no one knew what triggered it. Nor did they spend a lot of time trying to figure out what triggered it.
[2:50 AM] They went right into the treatment phase which has a 0 probability of success in reversing the condition. Slowing it is the goal from day 1, which means suffocation is the end game for those afflicted with this disease.
[2:51 AM] But, as with most conditions, if you are lucky enough to find a physician that thinks out of the box, and is up on the current research as it relates to repurposed drugs, there are a plethora of options you have.
[2:53 AM] Of course none are proven to work 100%. As there is no money in researching repurposed drugs as they are cheap. Much cheaper than the drugs that are prescribed to slow the condition. As those tend to be rather new drugs where the cost is extremely high.
[2:53 AM] So naturally that is where the money is, slowing the condition rather than curing it.
[2:54 AM] But fortunately there are institutions that do studies on repurposed drugs on a variety of conditions, one of the being pulmonary fibrosis.

When I see a situation like this, one of the things I enjoy doing, is researching it myself. And usually I can find approaches while not proven, at the least provide a low risk alternative that can be used in conjunction with conventional medicine. It is not a pick or choose alternative.
[2:58 AM] The interesting thing about this is, when his physician was approached with some of the potential treatments, and given a few studies that supported the potential for working, the physician refused to prescribe them. Saying that the studies were not enough?
[2:59 AM] That is the time to get a new Dr. When they do not have the answer except wait and die, and you give them studies of a drug that might improve your lot, and they hem ha around and then blow you off, you move on. The last thing you need is a Dr. that has given up on you to that extent.

The prevailing and perhaps the only view in conventional medicine as to pulmonary fibrosis is that there is no treatment that will stop the progression of the disease, that it is irreversible, and there is little they can do but give expensive medication to attempt to slow the progression, while doing little to diminish the rather problematic side effects of not only the medication, but the effect the condition has on the person. From the ongoing inability to breath, to the never ending mucus that fills the lungs and has to be coughed or suctioned out, to the never ending coughing fits.
[3:05 AM] All because they do not have a clue what caused the disease itself. After all these years, they are no further along on this then they were before. As there is a lot of money in slowing the progression , but little in curing it.
[3:06 AM] I am not going to give medical advice here. But I will tell you as I told him, there are avenues he can take, that have shown some promise. Not only in stopping the progression of the fibrosis, but actually reversing it!
[3:07 AM] You will not find that talking to most physicians, as they also readily buy into whatever conventional medicine is selling. And it takes a lot of extra work to keep up on things. How easy it is to just accept conventional thought:)
[3:08 AM] But this is just one example of too many conditions that fall into this category.
[3:09 AM] Again my rule is, if you do not know the etiology of the disease, there is no way you can write someone off.
[3:10 AM] Am I missing something? I doubt it, as it is that simple. As once the etiology becomes known it becomes much easier to develop a treatment plan.

Do not let yourself fall into the trap of ruling out other venues of treatment when your physician cannot even tell you what causes your disease. A physician that gives up under those conditions, in my opinion should not be practicing medicine.
[3:14 AM] BTW, my friend has started one of the treatments I researched. But it took a long time to convince him that he had nothing to lose. Fortunately we had a mutual friend who is a Dr. who does think out of the box, and agreed with me on my assessment. This Dr. was one of the rare ones that had a wealth of knowledge from the years he practiced, and actually used his brain to come up with solutions that his peers could not even begin to come up with.
[3:18 AM] If you want to know what I consider the correct methodology, as to how brainstorm solutions medical and others, watch an older British EV series House, M. D. Not for the actual medical content, but the thought process used by Dr. House. It is chaotic, but gives you an idea of the opposite of the conventional medicine cookie cutter approach. While an entertaining series, it is instructive on one of the better techniques on how to critically think.

If you wish to get an invite to my discord channels, just send me an email to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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Unless you are playing with loaded dice, and are wagering on events that have a small edge, variance will always come into play.

MLB is the best testing grounds to see if you are up for the challenge. Based upon my experience most gamblers not only are not up for the challenge, some do not know that a challenge even exists.

So you have the psychological test, the money management test, the education of becoming one with variance (embrace the uncertainty)

As there is no way I know of to wager eliminating all risk. Sure you can do a few things to lower variance, but only a small amount.

The way to wager eliminates some of the risks. First, you set aside a pool of money that if things go sideways and you lose it all, it will only be an intellectual exercise rather then panic time.

2nd. Once you get your bankroll established, you then set a % number for bet sizing. So if you have a bankroll of 20,000 and  you assess your risk tolerance and pick 1% as the wagering amount. You would then wager $200.00 a game. That means your bankroll will fluctuate as well your betting amount.

1% is a reasonable number to use. The higher the % the greater the variance, and chances of losing it all. I have tried 3% and even for me the swings were too large. 2% still has very high swings, 1 or 1.5 % are both good numbers for you to consider.

Most people that wager, have no method, but only wager an amount based upon how they feel about the game itself, and in some instances increase the size of their wager to get even (plunging)

If you cannot harness that desire, you cannot begin to think about wagering on anything.

I will also go as far to say, if you do not have a set betting method, or feel it is too much trouble, then do not even begin this journey. As I will tell you, you can be the very best handicapper and if you do not get a handle on the above, you have a very high chance of going broke.
Wagering to me is a game in and of itself. So the way I approach is from a game theory standpoint. And I have a rule that I do not wager unless I feel I have the best of it. (I have always said I do not need to have the best of it, but I do need to think I have the best of it)

I did not always approach things that way, years ago before I decided to get rid of my bad habits, I did about everything most gamblers did.  However I am an analytical type, and eventually I worked out what works for me to harness my bad habits. Sure I have slipped from time to time over the years, but the more gambling I do, the more disciplined I become.

Betting just to bet can get very expensive in the long haul. Expensive enough to remove all of your EV you have fought so hard to obtain.

I had a good friend of  mine that became very successful at some of the highest stakes poker games in the world.  Back in my college days we went together to many local games around the Univ of Ill area.  Then as time passed I lost track of him. But, when I moved to Vegas over 20 years ago, I walked into the Bellagio poker room, and heard someone yell out my name.

I looked and there he was the person I knew back in my college days. He was sitting at the 2,000/4000 table with Brunson , Reese,  and the other cast of high stakes poker players.

We went out to lunch and I asked him how does he handle variance?  At 2000/4000 limit poker, 30 big bets is $120,000.   100 big bets $400,000. And he was playing some of the best in the world:)

His answer amused me, “when you are as good as me, you do not need to be concerned with variance”

I always knew from the past, he had little respect for variance, but on the other hand , had one of the best minds for poker I have seen. So who knows:)

The reason I am writing this is whenever you go through a tough patch, it should be a learning experience, not a traumatic experience that you lose sleep over, get mad, or triggers a tilt factor in you.

I always approach wagering as an intellectual exercise. At the poker table I could go through 3 racks, and you would never know I was losing. This happened in an Omaha 8 game I was in. I got hand after hand, and lost every one of them. The person next to me who at the time was with 2+2  that I became friends with, looked at me and asked “when you just get up and quit for the day”?

My reply was , what is the difference if your downswing occurs in hours or months. As long as I am playing good and the game is good, my approach is to just weather the storm. I can do that because I am not superstitious, as some players are.  He of course understood what I was saying, he replied that he tends to get mad after 2 racks. so he quits at that point.

So you have to know your own limitations., and either work on them, or abide by rules you set so they do not cost you money.

I played professional poker for 20 years here in Vegas.  I played 6 days a week, for 6 to 20 hrs. at a time. I always kept detailed spreadsheets as to each game I played in broken down by game played,  the betting structure of the game,. By the time I  stopped playing, I had detailed records as to top bottom swings for each category, my net profit, and expected EV. I found out there were some games that I had no edge in, some games where the variance made it just oo tough to consider playing in them. Badugi was one of the games that I decided had too high

But other games have for me a very low variance, Omaha 8 was my game of choice. 2 to 7 triple draw another game of choice. Stud hi low, either any any or 8 or better another. I liked any any because most players had no idea the key strategies behind playing it. It plays completely different the 8 or better.

All carries over to sports betting. And MLB is the toughest grind of them all.

As a said a testing ground:)

If you wish to join us for free up to the beginning of NCAA FB, send an email to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. I have talked previously why I am making these picks free for most of the MLB season.

Once I get your email I will add you to the email list, and also send you an invite to both discord channels. Discord has all the wagering history since I started with my online site many years ago.

Try to join us if only for the educational posts, and conversations on discord.

RickJ

RickJ Sports Plays

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Discord:

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for finding value. When the database you have been using overnight went out of business, then you have to search for your alternatives. I had a number in mind, and I picked what I feel is the best suited for finding value in overnight wagering.

So far this has proven accurate on beating the closing line, but for actual results we find ourselves at just under breakeven for the season. But the good news is one good month could well make up for a few months of low range swings with a net negative.

So, It is too early to tell , but I am optimistic since as long as long as we keep beating the closing line,

So for today the overnights from last night are:

This is all sent out to subscribers via email , discord and my old Slack account which I am moving away from.

As I said this is all free until the beginning of NCAA FB, At which time things will be back to normal with the free

accounts either electing to continue on with us over football season or moving on.

But you will have time to get your choice before Football begins.

If anyone has any questions, or wishes to take advantage of the free MLB season, just send me an email to RickJ@rickjshandicappingpicks.com and I will have

you up and running the same day.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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