RickJ's Handicapping Picks

wedn

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:10:00 +0000

Nothing the last few day and nothing much today although there could be an nba lean tonight but nothing even close in the nhl.

I will update later today if anything becomes clear.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Tues

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:23:00 +0000

Nothing Monday and today there is the possibility of a nhl pick. I will update later
if it becomes clear.

Another email:

"Last year you had a great run at the beginning of the college hoops season with totals, before the books adjusted. Are you saying there will be no such plays this season, even if they present themselves?"

My response:

It was a great run and how much was variance and how much was weakness in the numbers is not known. I do know after the 1st 3 weeks whatever worked didnt anymore.

Since the method I used last year wasnt proven but just an off the cuff system that worked out..and since there is no way for me to back test it I wont be doing it again this year.

In addition the time spent in working the totals up daily is enormous! In addition one of the variables I looked at wasnt put out early so that made it all the more difficult.

Finally most books dont put out totals the first few weeks of ncaa baskets until about 30 min before game time.

All that adds up to my not doing it again this year.

That being said I have uncovered a sub set in the sides that looks promising and will put out the picks as they develop similar to the other sports. This will be the first year I have used this subset but its the only one so far that I have found that seems worth handicapping in ncaa baskets.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Monday

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:50:00 +0000

Well...we ended up with our lean on San Jose st getting blown out so a 1-2 weekend in ncaa fb.

The good news is that my contest picks went 4-1 in both the hilton and stations. Another few weeks like that an I might be in danger of cashing:) My record in the hilton is 53.33% and in Stations 57.77%

Today nothing much I can see.

In the nfl game tonight I received the following email:

"Rick, why would the line on the NFL tonight move in the opposite of the public? Seems a lot of bets on Pitt but the line went from -3 to as low as -1.5 at 5dimes. Any thoughts?"

My thoughts:

Usually what this means is that the "smart money" is on the dog but the public is all over the favorite. The problem with applying that in tonights game is that the move is too large and you are coming off the strongest key number in the nfl. You would be taking too much the worst of it to take less then 3.

I prefer to look at a small move against the way the public is betting that dosnt involve a key number and is no more then a 1 point move. Half point is much better.

This game was not even on my radar as being a potential play so I am passing on the game.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sunday ncaa fb lean

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 13:48:00 +0000

We split on our leans Sat with Akron winning outright But Iowa state getting blown out.

Today Nothing I can see in the nfl. But a lean in tonights ncaa fb game.

San Jose St +14

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Leans vs Play

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 15:25:00 +0000

I get a lot of email regarding the difference between a lean and a play. The answer is there really isnt much difference. My handicapping techniques have evolved over the last 3 years to where I have isolated what I consider subsets of the betting universe for each sport that I feel have a positive ev.

I have eliminated totals and now just handicap the sides. In addition the one sport that
I havnt gotten a handle on yet is ncaa baskets. I cannot find any subset consistent enough to wager on in that sport.

What this means is from here on out there will be fewer picks. Since I am only going to put out the games that fall under the various subsets I have set up.

Now to answer the question ...when I look at a subset of games I then have other variables I look at to then consider the game a play or a lean.

A play is where everything points to that side and a lean is all but 1 variable.

The difference is minor and my unit value is the same on both.

So to sum up.....I start with a subset of games that I feel overall has a positive ev. I then start my handicapping from that subset of games. So that what I feel are only the clearest from the subset make the pick.

The biggest variable to start out with is what the public is doing. That is the primary consideration in determing games that fit a subset...not the only one but the primary one. The threshold however is different for each sport.

I hope that clears things up:)

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sat ncaa fb and nfl contest picks

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:43:00 +0000

Nothing the last few days but today some leans in ncaa fb.

Iowas State +7.5
Akron +3.5

Ncaa football 09-10
Plays 3-1-1 +1.95
Leans 9-5 +3.80

There is a 5:00 game that might become a pick so check back around 4 or so.

In the nfl my contest picks are in the order I liked them at the time:

Washington +10
Tamba Bay +10
Kansas City +6.5
Miami +10.5
Arizona +3

In the Hilton contest I am 50% and Stations 55%. I am going to have to put in a great
2nd have to have a chance to cash in either contest.

Good Luck

RickJ
rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Friday

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:03:00 +0000

I have been waiting thinking a few plays might become
clear but so far nothing . If anything develops I will
update later.

Nothing for sure in the football game tonight

rickj
rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

thurs

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:59:00 +0000

We lost our nhl lean on phoenix on Wedn. Today nothing close to a play or a lean anywhere. There is an outside chance that something may develop in the nhl later..but
I doubt it. I will update later if something shows up.

RickJ
rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Wedn NHL lean

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:54:00 +0000

Phoenix even

rickj

Wedn

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:03:00 +0000

We won our lean on Milwaukee +9 in the nba with an easy win for our first nba pick.

Tonight it looks very likely that there will be some picks and as they become clear
i will post them.

Right now there are 2 nhl games and 1 nba game...but things can change since
the volume of betting is so light in the morning.

I received the following email:

"thank you for the fine picks....
do you use or recommend a certain money management system for bet sizes.

2%...3%...5%???????

thanks,"

My response:

There are many that bet a percentage of what they have put aside for wagering. So as your bankroll increases your bet size increases and vice versa.

I dont do that.....i bet the same unit size on all plays and leans. My advice is that if a 40 unit loss is going to cause you any pain or concern....your betting too much. This is supposed to be fun....really to make any serious money betting sports you would have to have a unit size of 500 to 1000 since if there is an edge its very small. But then a 40 unit downswing would be 20,000 to 40,000.

Now thats assuming there is an edge. As in poker the sample size is so small you would almost have to do this for 10 years at least to see how things develop.

I do this each morning the way some people work crossword puzzles. I enjoy it.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Tues NBA lean

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:07:00 +0000

Milwaukee +9

rickj

Tues

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:13:00 +0000

Nothing Monday and today not much. Nothing in the nhl....but might be a lean on an nba game this evening.

I will update here if anything turns up.

Thanks for the comments regarding baskets.

To me its similar to football but in reverse. If you have the dog and have the game covered late and the winning
team has the ball...they usually wont try to score but run out the clock. But in baskets under the same situation you
have the team behind fouling usually until the game is out of reach. So you have the team thats ahead taking high
percentage foul shoots with the team behind running down and putting up low percentage 3 point shots.

Makes it tough on dogs that are +5 and under. My thinking is dogs over 7 pts and perhaps lower dogs where you have
the other team winning.

Of course the rest of the handicapping goes with it.

Oh well......we will see.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Monday

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:16:00 +0000

We split on our nfl leans and I went 2-3 in both nfl contests.

So a 4-1 weekend in football. Could be worse:)

Today nothing I can see in tonights nfl game. There could be a nhl play
tonight and I will update if anything develops.

I havnt had an nba pick yet but I have some thoughts about baskets that I would like to share.

The nature of the scoring at the end of the game makes the results more random then any other
sport. Scoring can change by 10 or more points in the last 30 seconds due to the end game of
basketball. So you could of handicapped a close game..and been correct..but since your team
was down by 3 with 30 seconds left that could balloon to 12 easily in the last 30 seconds.

My thoughts are this makes it much more random and harder to predict then any other sport.

I am going to open up the comments section. I have had it closed because of spam...but If things dont
get too far out of hand i will keep it open.

I would appreciate any insight or comments.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sunday nfl leans

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 13:19:00 +0000

Sat we won our 3 ncaa fb leans and also won our nhl lean for a +4.10 unit day.

Today 2 leans in the nfl

Buffalo +3.5
Phil +1

Might be an nhl pick later.

Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sat NHL lean

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 21:10:00 +0000

Detroit +110

rickj

Saturday ncaa fb leans and nfl contest picks

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 12:23:00 +0000

Today there are 3 leans in ncaa fb.

Arizona St +7
Ball St +6.5
Miami Ohio +5.5

Record

Plays 3-1-1
Leans 6-5

In the Hilton and Stations contest its time to regroup going 1-4 and 0-5 last week.

Stations:
Buff +3
Seattle +9.5
Miami +3
Jacksonville +3
St Louis +4

One of my best plays was Phil but the Hilton had it -2.5 so I passed on the Hilton but
took Phil -1 in Stations instead of St Louis. The rest is the same.

Hilton NFL contest
18-17 51.4%

Stations NFL contest
20-15 57.14%

Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

friday

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:10:00 +0000

Sorry about the mix up on thurs....I guess playing poker...keeping track of line movements and then updating site via iphone tripped me up.

In any event both nhl leans won....but since I posted new jersey about 10 min after the game started I am not counting it on
my record.....

Today nothing I can see......may an nba game later but probably not.

In the football game tonight the public is on the away favorite but as has been the case more often then not
lately the line dosnt give you anything of value that I can see......

So I am passing on tonights game.

Should be a few Saturday and Sunday actually looks promising after last weeks bath!

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sorry that was new jersey +150

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 23:27:00 +0000

2nd Thursday NHL lean

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:45:00 +0000

St louis +150

rickj

Thursday NHL lean

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:55:00 +0000

Phoenix +120

Rick

THURS

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:17:00 +0000

nothing again today although might be something in the nhl later...I iwll post if anything develops

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

wedn

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 22:46:00 +0000

Nothing troday.....had a computer crash that I have been working on for the last day and a half. Had to go out and get a new computer....and reinstall the operating system and everything else.....needless to say...im exhausted!

But it should be back to normal on thurs...whatever that is:)

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

tues night

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:34:00 +0000

Nothing on tonight football game...and nothing in the nba or nhl.....

Will be a nice needed break tonight:)

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Tues

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:44:00 +0000

Well no miracles on Monday night:( There is only one thing you can do
after a weekend like the last. Put it behind you and move on. There is nothing
easy about sports handicapping and like poker it has its ups and downs. Every once in
awhile the public has its day and they did this weekend. Its very similar to a live player sitting down in the poker game and leaving with 4 racks of chips after playing every hand. It happens and more often then you would think:(

The only consolation is that most bettors as the halfway point approaches are underwater and wishing they had never started betting. We are in the + column on both ncaa fb and the nfl.

Doesn't look like there will be anything in the nhl tonight but the ncaa fb game
looks promising and I will update later as things develop.

Also as the stock markets slides if we have another down day today it will be time to start looking for a few swing trades. The market is not quite oversold enough for me
to put on short term trades but another 10 points down on the sp500 and I am sure I will be able to find a few trades.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Monday nfl play

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 23:09:00 +0000

The line has finally moved to +9 in most places....I am putting
Washington +9 out as a play.

Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com