RickJ's Handicapping Picks

wedn ncaa baskets

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 03:04:00 +0000

Richmond -2
Northern Iowa +1

RickJ

Ncaa bb pick

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 16:49:00 +0000

S. Florida Pick

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Hilton

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 16:31:00 +0000

Just saw the Hilton top 20 ...I missed the top 20 by a half point:( Final result I tied for 21st.

So close!

Rick

Tues

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 15:41:00 +0000

A good day yesterday we went 2-0-1 on our sides and 2-1 on the totals for a 4-1-1 day in ncaa baskets.

Today nothing in ncaa baskets so far. A possibility in the nba and nhl but probably wont post untel later this afternoon. Neither are very clear right now.

I want to thank everyone that sent an email to me with condolences on my last week in the nfl results. Its encouraging to know there is a human element on the other side of this blog:)

We are on a nice run in ncaa baskets up around 18 units. As you can see from yesterday the lines are getting tougher which they usually do so dont expect these results going forward. But we will see.

As always I will update as things develop today.

For you movie buffs out there i have had netflix for about a year now with streaming movies. If you enjoy movies I highly recommend it even if just for the instant movies. I have watched some movies that I would never have even known about that were great. Two that come to mind...."B. Monkey"(I now know how Woody Allen came up with "Jonathan Rhys Meyers" for the lead role in "Match Point") and "Let the right one in" Both are great

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

another

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 18:21:00 +0000

San jose st over 141

RickJ

another

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 17:21:00 +0000

Delaware +8

RickJ

another ncaa bb

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 16:43:00 +0000

Samford +10

RickJ

well

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 15:23:00 +0000

The nfl wasnt really very exciting at all....I was on the wrong side of every game and almost went 0-6 except Oakland squeaked by with a cover.

Needless to say I am disappointed but I had a great run to get into position to cash but the final 2 weeks did me in:( Similar to last year when I needed a 3-2 record to cash and went 2-3.

So...its time to concentrate on ncaa baskets and put the nfl contests behind me.

We have a carry over from last night Alabama -14.5. I put out Tenn State last night at +14 and got out this morning at -13. This will happen from time to time....but this is the first one this season.

This morning I put out:

Fairfield over 141
Harvard over 141

As you can see I am starting to put out ncaa totals. I have figured out a method to cut my workload on these where it can be done reasonably fast.

Saying that.....I am not as confident in the totals and the sides....but we will see how this season comes out. Sides have far exceeded my expectations!

Ncaa basket Side Record:
-1 to +1 games
3-0
Dogs +7 or greater
6-5
Favorites up to -6.5
8-5
favorites -7 or better
12-3
Total:
29-13

Again the best way to get these is through twitter under rickjsportplays

If anything else develops I will post on my blog and twitter

RickJ
RickJshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

another

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 13:56:00 +0000

Fairfield over 141

ncaa bb totals

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 13:53:00 +0000

Harvard over 141

Monday ncaa bb

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 13:39:00 +0000

Morehead st -13

This is opposite our overnight Tenn St .....things changed this morning. This is going to happen once in awhile when betting overnight lines...so far this is the first time.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Monday ncaa bb

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 03:42:00 +0000

Tenn State +14
Alabama -14.5

RickJ

nfl play

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 17:44:00 +0000

Tampa Bay is +3 in most places now..I am putting it out as a play

RickJ

ncaa bb pick

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 16:54:00 +0000

Wisconsin -4.5

RickJ

Sunday nhl lean

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 16:01:00 +0000

Florida +125

RickJ

Nfl week 17

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 15:00:00 +0000

We went 4-1 in our ncaa basketball picks on Sat bringing my record to 26-13 this season.
The easiest way to get these are on twitter under rickjsportplays. I also post them on my blog.

We have a carry over today from last night on 2 ncaa basketball games:

Iowa st -5.5
Maryland -15.5

In the nfl I am tied for 9th in the Hilton contest with a 48-31-1 60.76% record. A 3-2 day will keep me in the top 10 and anything better then that might get me into the top 3 with an outside chance still at number 1 or 2. A 2-3 day and I might still cash in the top 20...maybe.

My picks in the Hilton contest this week in the order I liked them at the time:

Tampa Bay +3
Miami +3
Oakland +10.5
Ny Giants +9
Phil +3

In the stations contest my record is 49-30-1 62.00%. I am tied for 4th and a 3-2 day probably will get me into the top 3. Anything better then that most likely 1 or 2.

My picks in the Stations contest in the order I liked them at the time:

Oakland +10.5
Giants +8.5
Tampa Bay +2
Phil +3
Arizona -3(they scratched miami and didnt have a 4th play under my methods...so betting line is 3.5 and Green Bay has nothing to play for)

I am putting Miami +3 out as a lean today.

My record on my leans and plays in the nfl this year is:

Plays 3-3 -0.15
Leans 11-6 +4.75

If anything else develops today I will post on my blog and tweeter.

Needless to say its going to be an exciting day for me.

Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sunday ncaa bb

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 03:15:00 +0000

Iowa st -5.5
Maryland -15.5

RickJ

Another

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 16:23:00 +0000

Northeastern -10

RickJ

Sat

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 16:19:00 +0000

Nothing on Friday but we have a carry over from last night with 3 ncaa bb picks. also 1 this morning....and looks like there will be another soon.

Nothing in the nhl or nba and I will post nfl Sunday Morning.

Good Luck today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

sat ncaa pick

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 15:31:00 +0000

Nc Wilm +9.5

RickJ

Sat ncaa bb

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 03:04:00 +0000

Kentucky -7.5
Minnesota -10.5
Missouri -15.5

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

an instructive email

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 16:26:00 +0000

I received a question this morning that i think will help with college basketball:

"Rick big fan of the blog. A question I have is how do you get a good idea of what the public is doing on college basketball games that nobody will even watch like Towson -3 and Wofford -4.5? Do you use any consensus sites that compiles this data for you? With CB I have a helluva time figuring out which side the public is on unless I know it is going to be a big game in which a lot of people are going to be putting money down. It seems to me bowl games are great for going against the public, or at least getting more value out of lines because of the publics perception of "big name" teams."

My response:

College Baskets is much different then any other sport for handicapping. There are so many teams and conferences that I think a good handicapping technique without any input on what the public is doing can turn out a profit. Also unlike any other sport I have found that power ratings on the games are not any help!

In the nba, nfl, ncaa fb the power rating can actually give you some type of guidance..but in college baskets they are virtually useless. My technique is to use a combination of my neural models..with heavy input on high percentage situations that come into play on the teams. And then everything has to be perfect for me to play the game. In addition I do not play any short dogs(+1.5 to +6.5) because of the end game in college baskets. The end game doesnt help short favorites with the fouling and 3 pt attempts.

Now saying that this is my first season using this method and next year it might be entirely different:) But so far it looks encouraging.

Now if I had the time to stay in front of the computer and look at the what the public was doing in high profile games with a high volume of betting then I think you can take what the public is doing into account to come up with possible games to play. But the public would have to be at least 75% on one side before I would take a look at the game and even then I would still apply my handicapping to that game. So for instance on a day like tomorrow....you might spend all day pouring over the numbers with a lap top in front of you....and come up with may 4 games to look at.....which may or may not make the cut using more analysis. But you are on the right track if you have the time to do that.

Sites that I look at for public perceptions are covers.com and Sportsinsights.com

I dont handicap the bowl games since the teams are on a neutral field and I have no methods that I am confident enough in handicapping a game on a neutral field. My methods on ncaa fb is strictly to analysis the subset of home dogs. so I dont even look at other games.

Finally you have to be careful with the idea of using what the public is doing as a guide. Its the best guide in most sports but the threshold is different for every sport. In addition its only a step in the process.....it alone will not produce a profit at the end of the year.

I hope this helps and would welcome any other questions or comments.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Friday

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 16:11:00 +0000

We won our ncaa bb pick on Oregon St +12.5 on Thurs. Today a light schedule and nothing at all. There is a potential nba game tonight and I will monitor the numbers through the day. If anything develops I will post on here and twitter under rickjsportplays.

So far ncaa bb is working out much better then I expected with all categories showing a profit. Encouraging to say the least and with a huge schedule on Saturday I will hopefully get home early from the Bellagio to get working on that.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Thurs

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 17:00:00 +0000

Another decent day on wedn....3-1 on our ncaa bb picks...but lost our nhl lean.

Today a carryover from last night......Oregon St +12.5

And it looks like that might be it for today......although could be a nhl game later.

I received an email why I am not putting anything out on the bowl games. I dont ever begin to handicap those......I could go through the usual routine I use in college football...but none of the percentage setups I use apply to bowl games so it would be useless.....so...I decided just to take a pass on these rather then put out something im not confident in.

I have actually figured out 5 games to use in the nfl contests. But you know its a crazy week when buffalo is favored over indy by 6.5 and if your going to bet the game the only side you can bet on is Buffalo!!

I will post my picks sunday morning.

Good Luck today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

sorry thats thurs ncaa bb!

ricccc_99@yahoo.com — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 05:12:00 +0000