Ricky Gupta

Swachh Bharat on the ground - An insight to the programme

2016-06-16T21:45:00.001+05:30

On a hot sunny day in June, Pankaj Jha comes to my shop. Riding on his Hero motorcycle dressed in simple shirt & trousers and carrying a basic cell phone, Mr. Jha starts enquiring about the prices of different building material goods.

I operate a building material store in Raikot, a small town falling under Ludhiana district of Punjab. Jha’s requirements ranged from basic materials like cement & sand to sanitary pipes and seats. After detailed analysis of various quotations that Mr. Jha had from other shopkeepers, he decides to pick up the material from me.

Mr. Jha works as a volunteer with Sulabh International, an organisation promoting sanitisation, waste management and human rights. Sulabh is the one of the largest NGOs in India. Jha along with 46 others have been appointed as supervisors by Sulabh International. But what is Sulabh doing in Punjab? Why is Jha stationed in Ludhiana by Sulabh International?

The story started in August 2014 on the eve of Independence Day. The newly elected Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi urged corporates to take up the social responsibility of building toilets and promoting sanitation and hygiene. The official Swachh Bharat Scheme was launched on October 2^nd 2014. The scheme with a vision of Clean India by 2019 aimed to eliminate some curses of our society like open defecation, manual scavenging, bring solid waste management practices into effect and inculcate a habit of sanitation & cleanliness among the people.

Mr. Sunil Bharti Mittal came forward to contribute to the Swachh Bharat campaign. Mr. Mittal is the chairman of Bharti Enterprises which owns Airtel, the largest mobile telecommunication company in India. Mr. Mittal adopted Ludhiana district of Punjab. Bharti group committed an investment of Rs. 100 crores in the district. The aim is to build a separate toilet in each household of the district in households where toilets are not present. Apart from this the group will build girls’ toilets in schools where this facility isn’t available. Absence of girls’ toilet is a major cause of girls dropping out of schools once they attain puberty.

A massive 12000 toilets are to be built in rural households in a time span of 36 months. Such a task required expertise to execute the projects in a planned manner within stipulated time. To accomplish this task Bharti roped in Sulabh International owing to its track record and visionary leadership of Shri Bindeshwar Pathak. This sequence of events led to Mr. Jha being sent to Ludhiana district where 46 supervisors will ensure that every household in 915 villages of the district has a toilet in 36 months.

More discussion with Mr. Jha and on ground visit makes one familiar of the modus operandi. A group of villages (three to four) is selected by a supervisor at a time. This is followed by door to door inspection to ascertain the houses which doesn’t have a toilet. The village sarpanch is actively rolled in so that people’s confidence can be gained. A report is prepared for the village and a final figure is determined which is the total number of toilets to be built in the village.

Time is of essence since the target is huge. Targets will be met only when ground officers will be given complete powers to operate and get the quality work done and the biggest hindrance that usually comes in this work is availability of funds. “Money isn’t a problem for us. Our bank accounts are pumped with adequate money so that work isn’t hampered. What matters is speed, quality and continuity” says Mr. Jha.

The construction of one toilet takes an average of eight days. Mr. Jha handles three villages at a time with five masons working in each village. In short he completes an average of 14-15 toilets per week. Average number of toilets being built in every village is in the range of 50-55. This figure can give us a fair idea of the curse of open defecation in a prosperous state like Punjab. The figure would be even worse for the poorest districts of the country.

Centralisation is the theme of speedy work but monitoring of work is also an essential part. The basic scale of judgement would be quality of the material that has been used to build the toilet. Every district has a technical advisor to whom the supervisors like Jha reports. These advisors are veterans in the field of construction. They inspect every material and occasionally rejects batches of bricks and other material not conforming to the desired quality standards.

The job of Sulabh International doesn’t end at just construction of toilets. The real aim is awareness among the people. For this a dedicated awareness team is working which comprises of women volunteers. Once construction of toilets in a village is completed the awareness team visits the village, meets and educates the households regarding cleanliness and use of toilets. “We people are social workers working towards a mission. If the toilets are not put to proper use it will be a useless structure. Thus awareness is the key to success of our efforts. We are grateful to Modi Ji who unveiled such a mission and gave people like us a chance to prove how things can change on the ground level when you have a visionary leadership at the top” adds Mr. Jha.

The toilets are of the best quality and cost effective. The average cost of building one toilet is Rs. 25000. Two months have passed and Mr Jha has moved to 5^th village. Bharti group has built more than 3500 toilets till now in the district. People who have got toilets in their houses feel the difference in their lives. “We always knew that toilets are a necessity but we never had the money to build one. We had no other option but to ease ourselves in open” says Paramjit Singh, a daily wage earner who earns Rs. 6000 per month and has two daughters, one son and his wife dependent on him.

The Swachh Bharat mission has changed the lives of thousands of people in the past two years. The mission clean India is on its track and PM Modi seems determined to ensure that the curse of open defecation and girls’ drop out from schools due to lack of toilets is eliminated by 2^nd October 2019 which will mark the 150^thbirth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi.

India definitely needs more visionary corporate like the Bharti Group whose efforts are making a difference in the lives of millions of people.

A fully built and operational toilet in Basraon village

Another toilet in Basraon. Each toilet is marked a number to keep track

Independent pits are dug out for each toilet being built. Here we see the toilet connection being made with the pit. The image is of Bhaini Dareda village

A semi finished structure. An iron door is fitted in every structure. The whole structure is painted and then handed over to the households for use

Book Review: Why Nations Fail

2015-02-20T21:39:00.000+05:30

If one wants to read a different viewpoint on issues relating to gaps in development, prosperity and poverty between countries one should read the theory proposed by Political Scientist James A. Robinson & Economist Daron Acemoglu in their book Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. The unique approach followed & the reasoning given through subtle examples instigate the reader's mind to see a different part of development debate that goes around today, a part that the reader sees through the eyes of an academician who has spent his time on research and analysis of innumerable cases from the past by which he developed a theory explaining the reason of differences in nations development statistics.

We often read in news wherein the global leaders both from rich and poor nations urge rich countries and corporate tycoons across the globe to lend/help the poor countries in terms of monetary aid in order to uplift the people from the shackles of extreme poverty. These people deserve a comfortable standard of living just as people in developed countries enjoy but vicious circle of corruption, poverty, lack of opportunities to develop have kept people in the poor countries on the lowest strata of the human species. Amid all the calls asking for aid for poor countries we have neglected to ask a few fundamental questions like, Why are these nations so poor? What is the reason that prosperity has eluded these nations since centuries? What is it that has happened in the past to these nations that they are nowhere in the race as compared to the developed nations of the world? Is it the past which haunts these nations or something in present is also contributing to the subdued growth of the poor nations?

There have been different theories which try to explain the reason for development difference between countries.These theories mainly differentiate nations on the basis of geographies, culture and the type of mindset of rulers of poor countries. All these pre-existing theories have been a constant topic of debate among the academicians.

The central basis of the books revolves around the idea that a country is operated under a system of political and economic institutions. The development of a nation is dependent on the fact that how good or bad the institutions of that nation are. To put the above in concrete terms the book emphasizes that the reason for underdevelopment of a country is the presence of extractive political and economic institutions. The word extractive means sucking out every possible penny of money that would go for the welfare of the citizens of the country. Who extracts this money? These are the people who govern the extractive political and economic institutions. These rulers/regulators are at the top of hierarchy in the institutional corruption and welfare of people doesn't figure out on their list. This extractive group is called the Elites.

Satellite image of South Korea and North Korea at night. Extractive institutions in
N. Korea have made life of people miserable in the country

One fact can't be ignored that for a country to be effectively governed the people of the country have to choose a leader or a group of leaders who will represent all the population. Self-rule is an option which is as good as anarchy. Effective management of a country is possible only when power is given in the hands of few. But what is needed is an absolute limit to the powers available to these fortunate few because without limits on power extractive tendencies will overcome the main motive of welfare of people. Filling up of personal coffers would take clear priority over giving the citizens basic necessities to live and flourish in such a scenario.

The book establishes strong linkages between extractive political institutions and extractive economic institutions. The reason for it is quite simple. Extractive political institutions are governed by elite rulers who aim to increase the tenure of their rule as long as possible and to mint as much money as possible at the expense of the poor. Corruption is widespread in these economies. So, if political institutions are corrupt in nature the leaders/elite will also try to control the economic institutions since these institutions are the ones through which money is channeled. Hence, extractive political and economic institutions co-exist.

The authors talk about the ways and means by which the countries can come out of the web of extractive rulers and institutions. It is presumed that corrupt regimes are there to stay forever but at the end of every tunnel their is light and in similar way corrupt regimes see their day end. In fact during 18th and 19th centuries almost all European countries were governed by highly extractive political and economic institutions but certain events forced these countries to shift to inclusive political institutions paving the way for inclusive economic institutions. These events are the critical junctures in the history of a nation. These critical junctures symbolize any event that changed the course of the country in terms of development and prosperity. Events like the Glorious Revolution and Industrial Revolution in Europe, independence of Bostwana, etc. are examples of critical junctures. Critical junctures are mainly responsible for change from extractive to inclusive institutions.

The interplay between inclusive and extractive/exclusive institutions

Why Nations Fail is full of elaborate case studies which try to attack the existing theories on developmental gaps between nations. Secondly, the case studies tell us about the effects that extractive and inclusive institutions have on the life of the people. Some examples very precisely show the change of a nation from extractive to inclusive institutions and the visible growth path once critical juncture is reached. Be it Mexico where extractive institutions have made the life of people miserable when compared with neighboring and prosperous USA or be it Bostwana where after the critical junctures of independence leaders thrived to bring in more inclusive institutions making the country an outlier in the third world countries, the book is full of examples from all corners of the world. The reader gets a fair idea about the existing income disparities between nations around the world. The content of the book is devoid of complex statistics as all the reasoning is based on past history and the governance of the country thus making it an ideal read even for layman.

Having a set of political and economic institutions whether extractive or inclusive isn't a natural concept but is dependent on the rulers and the people of the nation. For a nation to turn it's fortune the elite have to cede control and power and devote energies of all the institutions for the citizens for whom these institutions have been created. Only then the world can think of erasing disparities between the rich and poor nations. Rest assured, the book will fascinate you with case studies from past & present and allow you to correlate the development theory provided in the book with the institutions of your own country and community.

BJP in Punjab - Don't let the time tick away

2014-10-28T22:15:00.001+05:30

Crowned as being the single largest party in India with comfortable majority at centre and many states the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) sets a perfect example of how to scale from nothingness to the highest corridors of power in a democracy. The wide support base of the party has helped it reach a level of 282 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections giving it absolute majority, a feat achieved after 30 long years by any political party in India. Not only this, the party has seen its support base rising in even those states in which making inroads was considered a distant possibility at a point of time in the past. Significant spike in vote share in states like West Bengal, Tamilnadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh is a testimony to the statement above. The prominent proof of a Modi wave even post Lok Sabha elections has been displayed in the just concluded Haryana assembly polls where the party jumped from 4 seats to 47 seats in 5 years time thus enabling it to make a BJP government in Haryana for the first time ever.

Although Hindutva has been a central theme but 2014 elections were
fought purely on the development theme

With states like Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand & probably Delhi on the electoral radar now, one can say with reasonable surety that Modi wave will bring all the three states in BJP kitty. But attaining this position on a national level wasn't an easy task. What BJP banked upon was the corruption scandals that had ripped apart the faith of people in the Congress government, mis-governance by the Congress on all fronts, Gujarat Model of development which was a ready example of good governance for the people and the most important factor 'the Modi Wave' coupled with volunteering by lakhs of volunteers from the BJP, RSS and various other organisations who toiled hard to place BJP at such a position.

Massive crowd at Narendra Modi's rally during campaigning for Lok Sabha Electioms

The win at the Centre gave the party political muscle as well as the confidence to negotiate with its allies in state elections. BJP demanded more number of seats to contest since the same allies banked on Modi wave for their electoral success in Lok Sabha elections. Both in Maharashtra and Haryana the party decided to go alone after failed negotiations with alliance partners and the results have been clear. To sum up, BJP got a clear majority in Haryana and in Maharashtra it got more seats than what the alliance partner was willing to offer the BJP had it contested with alliance.

Successive sweep in the twin elections has added to the confidence of BJP cadre and has assured them that BJP can handle its affairs on its own.

Talking about Punjab, the state has three major political parties, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), the Congress and the BJP. SAD-BJP alliance is the current ruling alliance in the state which won consecutively for the second term in 2012 assembly elections making it a first consecutive win by any alliance in the history of Punjab (after bifurcation of Haryana and Himachal Pradesh from Punjab in 1966).

The roots of BJP in the state can be traced back to Jan Sangh days. Eminent leaders like Dr. Baldev Prakash, Shri Hit Abhilashi, Shri Balram Das Tandom (one of the founding members of Jan Sangh & present Governor of Chattisgarh), Shri Yagya Dutt Sharma & Lala Lajpat Rai (Ludhiana) contributed to the development of Jan Sangh and later BJP in Punjab. Severe terrorism in the state which led to targeting of Hindus in the state was a set back for BJP in Punjab. Many of its leaders like Shri Hit Abhilashi were assassinated by militants & many others left active politics due to fear of life.

The present Akali-BJP alliance came into existence in 1997 when the duo won 93 of 117 assembly seats. Widespread corruption by the SAD party lead to defeat of SAD-BJP alliance in 2002 when Congress came to power. But in 2007 the alliance again won and have been ruling Punjab since the past 7 years.

The alliance has always appeared to be a peaceful one but there has been a rise in internal differences between the duo in the past 3-4 years. The major reasons for conflicts between the BJP and SAD are:

1. Suppression of BJP leaders and workers by the leaders of SAD thus alienating the party support in the state.

2. Suppression of the BJP vote bank in Punjab by SAD leaders. The BJP vote bank consists of urban businessmen and the businessmen have been bombarded with taxes like property tax which were not levied till date. Charging electricity at exuberant rates from the urban consumer at the expense of free power to rich farmer community has further eroded the BJP support base in the state.

3. Charges of corruption against SAD leaders & corruption in government departments coupled with drug menace which is playing havoc with the lives of youth has put SAD in bad light. The BJP is being questioned for its reasons to support a mismanaged alliance partner.

The BJP itself is also at fault for its shabby condition in the state as the party's state unit was forced to be bogged down by the SAD in the past in order to get lasting support at Centre whenever need arrived. Punjab has 13 Lok Sabha Constituencies with SAD contesting on more than 2/3rd of them.

2014 General Elections witnessed poor performance of the BJP-SAD alliance in the state which bagged 6 out of 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab. BJP suffered a huge blow when Mr. Arun Jaitley was defeated from Amritsar by the Congress candidate by a huge margin. The reasons for defeat, drug menace, corruption & disoriented youth!! BJP's state cadre and vote bank in Punjab has been eroded to a large extent.

Mr. Arun Jaitley (Finance & Defence Minister) was defeated from Amritsar Lok Sabha Constituency

Since June 2014 BJP has started raising voice against the SAD attitude towards its members as well as its vote bank. If lessons from Maharashtra are to be learnt then the party should think of the Punjab strategy at the earliest. A buildup of leadership base as well as worker base should be taken up to make necessary amends in the way Punjab unit has functioned. Projecting a strong leader as the face of party in the state can help it garner much needed support.

Popular opinion in Punjab for a strong face in politics brings the cricketer turned politician and BJP's ex-MP for Amritsar Lok Sabha constituency Mr. Navjot Singh Sidhu in the limelight. Mr. Sidhu a man with an energetic & charismatic personality & excellent oratory skills is seen as a youth icon in Punjab. His arch rivalry with the Badal father-son duo and regular jibes at them targeting corruption and drug menace in the state at the behest of Badals elicit wide response and applause in the state. Not only this, Mr. Sidhu is seen as an ideal fit by both the urban business class voters as well as the rural farmers since he has taken combined issues of both classes head on.

Mr. Sidhu's popularity as an honest & forward looking leader has been increasing.
Social Media has been actively coming in support of Mr. Sidhu as the next CM of Punjab

BJP should realise that the time is ripe to take some bold decisions in order to revive its eroding base in the state which has produced eminent leaders for the party since the Jan Sangh days. The party has faced enough ire of the people due to its soft stand on the issue of corruption by SAD leaders. Its tally came down from 19 seats out of 23 seats contested in 2007 elections to 12 seats out of the same 23 seats in 2012 elections. With more than two years in hand regaining the support base is very much possible when the party has a charismatic leadership waiting to be tested and the Modi wave which can be readily banked upon to take the public of Punjab in confidence and give them a corruption free government and a prosperous Punjab!!

Indo-Chinese Relations - Ball Treading in India's Favour?

2014-09-15T22:36:00.001+05:30

In a first instance of its kind, Mr. Xi Jinping, the powerful President of the People's Republic of China coming on his official India visit will not land in the Indian Capital of New Delhi but in the capital of Gujarat, Ahemdabad on September 17. Incidentally, the date of arrival coincides with the birthday of Mr. Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, a name which has been doing rounds in the political circles in both India and abroad. Adding another first to the series, it will be the first time when the Chinese have POSTPONED the visit to Pakistan to accommodate one extra day for India.

And all this has happened when we still have wide ranging issues with China with regards to a border dispute, frequent incursions by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in our territory & growing Chinese involvement on security front in the Indian Sub-Continent.

It wont be wrong to conclude that President Xi has tried to highlight the importance that India now holds for China. This has been made possible by the decisive mandate with which a government has been formed at the centre lead by Mr. Modi. Since the day of coming to power the ruling government has tried to take into confidence countries like Japan, China, USA, EU, etc. regarding the India growth story. The budget set the right tone with the introduction of infrastructure schemes like development of 100 smart cities & the bullet train project between Ahemdabad and Mumbai. And since then both China & Japan have been consistently trying to woo the Indian government with one claiming to be better than the other.

A Chinese high speed train in Shanghai. The country has the world's longest HSR network
with over 11,000 KM of track in service

Indeed Modi's widely covered Japan visit has been a huge success in both diplomatic and economic terms. The country agreed to fund and provide technical guidance for the bullet train project and its name has been finalised at least informally for the much coveted project. Apart from this the countries had advance talks and agreements on a wide range of issues like developing Varanasi on the lines of Kyoto city, talks on Ganga cleanliness drive, defence cooperation, etc. And to put it in quantitative terms the country pledged a support of $ 35 billion towards India in the next 5 years. The success of the visit and PM Modi's indirect remarks on China's expansionist plans have raised many eyes in China with the Chinese media particularly going on in the offensive mode.

Modi and Abe greeting each other on the former's Japan visit. The visit was a huge success
and has raised many eyes in China

Closely gauging the chance that Japan tried to take away from China with regards to making India a close ally and a favorable investment destination the Chinese side has acted more diplomatically by giving signals of a changing relationship between the two neighbourers and the biggest signal is given by President Xi by arriving in India on PM's birthday in his home state. China is eyeing investments in infrastructure sector where it has proved its technological superiority. In railways the country is still interested to help India in building and operating the high speed Bangalore-Mumbai corridor and other similar projects. China has confirmed to invest over $ 100 billion in India over the next 5 years, a figure triple to that of Japan's investment. This brings total investment commitment from the two giants at $ 135 billion in the next 5 years, added to this will be the investment by other countries and private players who will be willing to invest by the weight-age that India's growth story has got by the Chinese and Japanese commitment. This will help India in achieving $ 1 trillion investment in infrastructure in the next five years to bridge the infrastructure deficit.

A lot more is there for China in all these investments. Chinese companies are gung-ho over the Indian markets especially the companies in the electronics segment. Companies like Huawei, Gionee, Lenovo, Haier etc. in the consumer discretionary segment have been giving fierce competition to the local as well as international players. Not to forget the latest craze for the handset maker Xiaomi which is experiencing flash sales as all its models are sold within seconds of being launched on the online retailer Flipkart.com.

President Xi is expected to play a master stroke by discussing with PM Modi about the opening of the 4000 year old maritime silk route which is high on Mr. Xi's agenda. This will not only help to increase trade between the two countries but will also make the terrain for Kailash pilgrimage less difficult for the pilgrims.

While the visit is expected to open a new chapter in the Sino-Indian relations but it would be in India's best interests to be utterly cautious while dealing with the dragon. At no cost engagements with countries like Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, etc. should be affected with whom China has been engaged in bitter border disputes. India should aim for defence cooperation with all these countries and possibly push for export of indigenous state of the art BRAHMOS missiles to these countries to help them secure their frontiers effectively.

Japan should be listed on top of the list since Mr. Modi and Mr. Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister share close relations. India should strive for peace in the whole region and this is where it has a golden opportunity where it can try to arbitrate between China and Japan on the dispute on the ownership of Senkaku Islands. If India succeeds in bring two sides on table and help them reach an agreement that would be a huge positive for the country's global image. Doing this will be a rather challenging task since hardly ever international border disputes have been settled with peaceful negotiations.

Senkaku Islands, a set of five uninhabited islands have been a cause of dispute between
Japan and China

On personal security side the review and aggressive buildup of defence infrastructure along the Indo-Chinese border should be taken up by the Indian side which lacks readiness compared to the Chinese side in case of a hostile event. The Mountain Strike Corps should be raised quickly and provided with all modern equipment to deal with any situation on the Line of Actual Control.

On the trade side India has to try and bring down the deficit which has already reached unsustainable levels at almost $ 40 billion in favour of China. PM Modi should raise concern over Chinese trade barriers on Indian products like pharmaceuticals, metals, electronics, etc. Rules regarding registration of Indian company in China should be eased to make it favourable for Indian conglomerates to invest in China.

The trade deficit at over $ 40 billion in favour of China has already reached unsustainable levels

A few weeks ago, I had given my views on the way India should deal with China. Well, it has gone much better than what a layman such as myself in the field of international relations had desired and hope the same will continue in the times to come.

Space for the Wild Cat

2014-08-25T23:02:00.000+05:30

With the home to the highest tiger population in the world, I think this is India's proudest possession in the field of wildlife. At a time when the population of this elegant animal was reduced just to 1411 giving a jolt to the sleeping authorities we have come a long way with the current population being around 1750 tigers with more being added each year.

An elaborate network of tiger reserves numbering 46 as of today and tight measures to prevent poaching of the tiger has bore fruits. The prevention and preservation efforts have earned the Indian wildlife authorities and the Project Tiger worldwide acclaim and these now actively helping countries like Nepal to conserve their tiger populations.

A Royal Bengal Tiger

However, in all this a problem is raising its head with each passing day and that is the space constraint that these wild cats are experiencing in their designated reserves. The direct fallout of lack of availability of space is increase in human tiger conflict which is dangerous for both the human and the tiger. Since tigers don't know about their boundaries so when the area becomes over crowded they either shift to other less populated reserves if a dedicated corridor exists or are forced to meander out in the open coming in direct contact with the humans. On an average 85 deaths are reported in a year due to human tiger conflict, a number that is bound to rise due to space constraint that the cat is facing presently.

The major area of reform in this regard can be brought about by some intelligent planning. Here, dedicated corridors providing linkages between different reserves would offload half the burden since tigers from overcrowded reserves can migrate to the other ones through these corridors. Usually, the female tiger is the one who has to migrate due to tendency of the male tiger to kill the cubs. But development activities like roads, rail, human settlement act as a barrier in forming a net of interconnected tiger reserves.

More tiger reserves should come up on priority basis. The government is planning to set up five more reserves. Plans to connect these to the existing ones should be laid down at this stage itself so that tiger migration is facilitated.

Another measure that can be taken by the government is by starting something as Tiger Diplomacy as was done by China in the case of Giant Pandas by gifting the Pandas to various nations. Though different species of tigers are found in over 15 countries of the world but a humble starting of the programme can bring more focus on the issue of conservation of our national animal.

One thing should be clear that at the present numbers the tiger is nowhere near safety from extinction and crucial conservation efforts are needed to help these cats breed and grow in number. The new government has a lot to do on this front and one hopes that the big cat won't be left out in the development debate.

Book Review: One Life is Not Enough - K. Natwar Singh

2014-08-15T22:32:00.000+05:30

Natwar Singh's autobiography is one piece which gives us an account of the history of India back from the times when princely states reigned in the country till the present day democratic set up. A highly successful IFS officer Natwar Singh describes his diplomatic career in a refined form picking up beads from the thread of memory line and presenting all major events in his 31 year old diplomatic career starting from 1953.

A good judge of personality Natwar Singh gives a personality account of most of the figures that he talks about in his autobiography using metaphors and words that suit the underlying person the most. His descriptions of literary figures like E.M. Forster, R.K. Narayan, Ahmad Ali, Santha Ram Rao and many others leaves little to imagination with regards to the literary skill of these figures and their close association with Mr. Singh.

With regards to political figures Natwar Singh gives a fair picture of each personality whom he encountered during his lifetime. During his long career Natwar Singh had the chance to work with all the Congress Prime Ministers owing to his closeness with the Gandhi family. Apart from Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, and his close circle of diplomats & politicians Natwar also goes into the personality specifics of leaders like Morarji Desai, PV Narasimha Rao, international leaders like Mao Tse Tung, Kenneth Kaunda and many more figures of international repute.

In his diplomatic career Natwar has served the country on various positions based in London, Newyork, Poland, Zambia, Pakistan, to name a few. The details of every diplomatic mission on which he was posted have been clearly mentioned giving the reader an understanding of the various roles. Be it his posting at the United Nations, or as ambassador of various countries Natwar Singh gives details of his functions, events that happened during his presence and the protocol that is followed to interact with the Government of India as well as the foreign government all of which is beneficial to people interested in international relations.

The style of the autobiography is simple and straight never going off the chronology. Small hinges of humor add a good taste to the book. The calm and composed style of writing goes a sudden transformation in the final chapters of the book which starts basically from the time when Sonia Gandhi decides to lead the Congress Party. So be it the speech preparation sessions of Sonia Gandhi, her shyness from media which was evident during her initial media appearances as the leader of Congress or her dictatorial manner of working, Mr. Singh was all against Mrs. Gandhi right from her introduction in the book. He even accuses Sonia Gandhi for the present plight of the Congress Party.

The autobiography covers all the areas of Natwar Singh's life and at times he strays away from his life when describing detailed personality traits of leaders like Jawahar Lal Nehru but even then as the book proceeds one feels that the book is more of a one sided justification by Natwar Singh with regards to his name in the Volcker Committee Report which named him and the Congress Party being the beneficiaries of the Oil For Food Scandal. In the last chapters Mr. Singh tries to gather maximum sympathy for himself by describing issues in an emotive narrative in events relating to the Congress party sidelining from the controversy leaving him 'Naked' to attacks, he being forced to resign, being back stabbed by ministers and other moles in the Congress party. He desperately tries to absolve himself from the scandal and bats for his pride & honesty which was never questioned during his long diplomatic & political career till 2005.

The book generated its share of controversy when Sonia Gandhi herself visited Natwar Singh's residence when he announced about his plans to launch the autobiography which definitely raises eyebrows as to why would the Congress President meet an ex-Congressman who she thought had 'betrayed her and the party'. It goes without saying that the book has touched a raw nerve. The healing touch for Mrs. Gandhi will be 'her' own book which according to her will 'bring out the truth'. So lets wait for Mrs. Gandhi's autobiography before Natwar Singh comes up with more sequels on the Gandhi's as promised by him.

Dealing with the Dragon - What is India signalling?

2014-06-08T22:40:00.000+05:30

Both of the countries are among the most populated countries of the world, both of them are neighbors and both started their growth trajectory almost at the same time and at the same levels. Yet, China is far ahead of India today in almost every sphere ranging from infrastructure to social indicators. China is India's most important neighbor and its biggest trading partner with India-China trade being pegged at around 9% of India's total trade. At around $70 billion this number is expected to surpass $100 billion by 2015. But, India has a huge deficit to the tune of $40 billion mainly because China is a global manufacturing and export hub.

The relationship between India and China has always been of distrust, a situation that has persisted since the pre-independence days. I won't go into the past details and would just state the fact that both the countries know that their peaceful co-existence is a must for their own development and for the development of the people of India and China. This realisation among both the countries is strengthened by the fact that despite frequent army confrontations on the disputed border between India and China not a single bullet has been fired on the border since 1975.

Coming to the present scenario, the swearing in of Narendra Modi as the PM has definitely brought optimism in the India-China relationship with the Chinese Premier calling Mr. Modi after he took charge of his post and having a 40 minute long conversation. This clearly showed that China accepts Mr. Modi as the leader and is willing to do business with the country. The ongoing visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister Mr. Wang Yi is an affirmation of Chinese interest in India.

The meeting between the foreign ministers of India & China on June 8th.

China's particular interest in India is due to the fact that its own market is getting saturated and it needs another base where it can continue with its infrastructural adventures. It is the thriving infrastructure development that has catapulted China to spot of second largest economy in the world. India on the other hand lacks basic infrastructure like highways, railways, warehouses, etc. Providing China a chance to invest in India can help the country increase its pace of development. In the meeting with the Indian foreign minister Mrs. Sushma Swaraj both the countries have decided to inject new momentum in the ties by pushing for exploring untapped opportunities, finishing previous projects and removing hurdles in economic cooperation. China's engineering capabilities can be of immense help to India.

Even when he was the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Mr. Modi visited China and the visit was termed as a highly successful visit. Modi's image as the Messiah of corporates has always attracted praise and compliments from all the top countries including China. And this is also the reason why China is eager to work with India.

India has been eager to follow and catch up with China in a race which it has been loosing but the new government has also signaled that this is a government that can't be bullied easily. China's aggressive troop & infrastructure building along the border has been a cause of concern since the past few years. Its territorial claims on Arunachal Pradesh has also been a reason for some diplomatic scuffles during the past. Seeing these issues it can be said that Mr. Modi has chosen his ministers very carefully sending a clear signal to China that Arunachal is an inseparable part of India and the country is willing to concentrate on the borders when it comes to troop and infrastructure building.

Mr. Rijiju has promoted development of settlements along the border with China

Choosing Mr. Kiren Rijiju as the Minister of State for Home Affairs who hails from Arunachal Pradesh affirms the first fact and choosing General (Retd.) V.K. Singh the former Army chief as the in charge of development of North East states affirms the second fact. Commitment to build settlements and infrastructure along the border by the Indian government are steps to affirm its territorial claim in the area which rightfully belong to India.

China on the other hand has been involved in disputes with most of its neighbors being it the mighty Japan & South Korea or the smaller ones like Philippines & Vietnam. With no credible friends in Asia, China would never want India to tilt towards Japan as that could put pressure on China's aggressive expansion plans as a world superpower. Keeping in view the friendly relations between India and Japan it is unlikely that India will be a completely neutral party in the dispute between the two countries, but the ultimate call is to be taken by the PM and his cabinet.

A Chinese vessel spraying water canon on Vietnamese vessel
in the South China Sea.

For the time being it is quite evident that China will follow its policy of aggressive expansion in the Asia-Pacific region. Chinese activities in POK, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka has also caught India's attention and its on India to defend its interests by developing cordial relationship with all the close neighbors. Mr. Modi's first foreign visit to Bhutan after taking office as the PM is a positive step towards India's outlook on its relationships with close neighbors. And when it comes to US and Japan , India should balance its stand by being a neutral party defending its interest without tilting towards China or the US-Japan duo.

When Even Awareness Doesn't Seem to Work!!

2014-06-03T22:26:00.001+05:30

The most precious element that is available to us is water. Its something that sustains life. I wont bore you with the various uses of water since this is one element which needs no introduction, the need for which is involuntary & without with we can't sustain. In short, "Water Sustains Life".

Coming to what I am posting today. Well, today's post is based on all the personal experiences about water wastage, about the kind and amount of water that is wasted in front of us while we are performing our daily activities. My motive of penning down these obvious facts and experiences is to make the reader aware of the amount of water we and our known ones waste on a day to day basis, and to make them vocal enough to protest against regular waster wastage.

Just 4% of the water used at home is used for drinking purposes. Not Shocking?

Water wastage is a common sight at your home, office, shop, in public water supply systems, etc. Be it the overflowing bucket which you forget to turn off when you are busy watching television while the tap is on or be it your maid forgetting to turn off the tap as she is the one expected to multi-task and in the process forgets about the tap. Wastage of water in retail stores especially those situated just next to the highway is very common as loads of water is used to keep the dust alongside the road wet and settled. This practice is carried out twice a day thus wasting hundreds of litres of water every time. Overflowing municipal corporation tankers and leaking pipes is also a source of water wastage. More than 30% of water of municipal corporations is wasted in form of leakages.

Water leakages are common in developing countries

It is a known fact that water tables are going down with each passing day. People are boring deeper than before inside the Earth due to fallen water tables. Remember our childhood days when we used to have hand pumps installed at many places to meet our water requirements. Unfortunately now no hand pumps are left since water table has gone down significantly. Even after all this we continue to waste water unduly and unmindful of the situation around the world.

A dry hand pump

I certainly din't bore you with an introduction about water but I can't resist myself from telling some disturbing facts about water availability. More than 780 million people around the world lack access to safe water, that is nearly one out of every nine people on the planet. More than 6 million people die every year around the world due to water-borne diseases and 99% of these deaths happen in developing countries. Agriculture & irrigation accounts for 70% of fresh water usage around the world. Domestic consumption just accounts for 10% of water usage. 20% of children deaths below the age of 5 years are due to water-borne diseases.

If I come on pointing out every fact this post won't be sufficient enough for that. And yes, I will definitely talk about solutions since any of these conservation topics isn't finished till the author gives his views about solutions to the problem but according to me the real solution is the change in mindset of the people. People like you and me need to see water as a precious resource and not as a free commodity that can be wasted by our choice. My personal attempts to make people aware about the wastage of water have failed most of the times because with water comes a sense of carelessness just because people in this part of world where I live have not seen scarcity effecting their lives till now.

Till this change in our mindset comes very little can be done with regards to water conservation. But you should resolve to create maximum awareness and protest even smallest of water wastage even at the expense of earning disliking from the people whom you try to stop from wasting water. Forming awareness groups, educating our employees & neighbors, community meetings on ways to stop water wastage can be some of the simple steps. Moreover, the municipal corporations should ensure 24x7 supply of water at nominal rates and ban private bore-wells so that a curb on excessive usage can be put on.

Remember, every drop is precious. Think about those who don't even get water to drink lest waste....

Are we in for Another boom for the BJP?

2014-06-01T16:36:00.000+05:30

Ever since Modi Sarkar has taken over they have been making news almost everyday and fortunately till now they are in the news for the right reasons. Be it forming SIT for the recovery of black money stashed abroad or the steps taken by power ministry with regards to power situation in UP or the influx of foreign investment that has lifted our stock markets to life time high whatever is happening, is happening in the favour of Modi Sarkaar. With 336 MPs in the Lok Sabha NDA is sure of passing any bill without any road blockers (not to forget they can nominate the two Anglo-Indians too). The situation in Rajya Sabha is a little different where NDA holds only 64 seats out of 250 seats but even this doesn't pose a problem for the NDA because in the event of non-consensus between the two houses a joint session of the two houses is chaired and jointly again NDA has majority as it has 402 (336 Lok Sabha elected MPs, 2 Anglo-Indians & 64 Rajya Sabha MPs) out of 795 seats. The majority is wafer thin but enough to pass any bill by the ruling alliance.

What I am going to talk about is not related to the national level politics. It directly relates to the state politics and thus the title 'Are we in for another boom for the BJP?'. I think going by the popularity and positive sentiment towards team Modi and their effective handling of media relations (Modi has instructed all the ministers to be active on Twitter and Facebook) it is possible that BJP bags more than 20 states in its kitty in years to come. If we see the present graph of BJP we notice that NDA has governments in 8 states out of the total 28 states and the National Capital of Delhi. States governments of Jharkhand and Uttarakhand are not in BJPs rule but are expected to be in BJPs hold due to fragile majority of the ruling Congress in these states. Delhi also presents a fair chance for the BJP since the Congress is routed in the Capital and AAP's image has taken a severe beating since the resignation of the CM after 49 day stint in the government.

So, in the near term scenario we can see BJP's hold in 10 states and the Capital of Delhi. Now, lets come to the states where elections are due either in 2014 or 2015 and these are Maharashtra, Bihar, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir. The NDA again is expected to make governments in all the 4 states without much difficulty since the ruling parties in all these states face anti-incumbency and people want to test Mr. Modi's claims of decentralisation of powers to the state governments. This decentralisation will be possible only when the NDA will hold a majority of states in its kitty. Without this pre-condition Mr. Modi isn't that naive a politician to give too many powers to the states being ruled by hostile opposition.

Coming to our tally of BJP by 2015 end we arrive at a figure of around 15 states including Delhi and if we add 5 North Eastern states which always back the ruling front in Delhi (Tripura has always been a CP(M) stronghold & Nagaland is already led by NDA), we see that BJP can be holding around 20 states which is around 70% of the total states in India. This is a huge number and particularly in interest of the people of India because center-state disagreement over many issues has also held the growth of the states and the economy as a whole.

Mr. Modi has been elected at the right moment and if stars favour him the majority he has in Lok Sabha will be replicated in the Rajya Sabha and in time to come almost two-third of the states in India will be governed by the NDA. To achieve this level of success the incumbent government should work as promised and lay the sleeping economy on the path to development in the least possible time.

Delhi Revisited

2014-05-27T22:07:00.001+05:30

Some places are always too special and close to your heart. The places with which you can associate yourself, where you have spent the most memorable times of your life. For me such a place is in the city of Delhi. Being a graduate from Delhi University I spent around three years of life in the lively city of Delhi and developed a deep attachment with it. The area I am talking about is the North Campus area. This is one place which is always sprawling with a huge student crowds, attracting young students from all over India and abroad.

Visits to Delhi are frequent but a visit to Kamla Nagar was not possible during my previous visits due to time constraints. Now, I am sure whatever I will share today will make anyone who studied in any of the North Campus colleges nostalgic. It was last Tuesday that I went to Delhi to attend a friend's marriage and had arranged for a stay in Model Town. During my student days at SRCC I used to live in Kamla Nagar. Now, Kamla Nagar as most of the people reading this post will know is the most happening area of North Campus. Spread over a large area the market have throngs of youngsters visiting it during all times of the day. The day scholar students usually come during the morning and afternoon time & the hostelers as well as students living on rent in flats and as PGs rush to Kamla Nagar during the evenings.

And living at the center of the main market was definitely something to be proud of during student days obviously because you had the option of jumping out of your bed and reach the market almost instantaneously. I think the status of living in Kamla Nagar was more than the status of studying in one of the best colleges of the country.

To continue about my visit to North Campus, the excitement was at its high because I was coming here after a long time. Taking an auto from Model town (surprisingly they go by Meter now) I directly headed towards the Bunglow Road, the most happening road in Kamla Nagar. On the way I crossed my Alma mater and silently prayed and thanked it for making me what I am. One can never forget the contribution that these institutions make in shaping your personality.

McDonalds Kamla Nagar

The auto driver dropped me near McDonalds and instantly I was back in July 2008. My first day in Delhi and we PG mates who just met went to the market to get familiarized with the surroundings and ended up having snacks at the same McDonalds. Almost everything was same in the market, the same showrooms plus some new ones. Famous eateries like Caventers, Momo Point, KFC, McDonalds were still intact. But I was not looking for any of these. I headed directly to my favourite, Chacha Chole Bhature. Whoever has tasted Chacha's Chole Bhature will swear to god that nothing better than this thing has been ever made in this world. It had the same taste and environment even after three years since I got the chance to eat them again after such a long time. While eating I was lost in my college day remembering my daily pilgrimage to Chacha's shop from my PG to satisfy my taste buds. The feeling of getting to eat this delicious dish after standing in line for 15-20 minutes in blazing sun is one of its kind.

Chacha Chole Bhature, Kamla Nagar

Once Chacha was done it was time to roam around and to my surprise the big roundabout in the heart of the market has been converted into a mall cum multi-level parking complex which houses Starbucks Coffee outlet. I imagined what would be the effect on Barista, CCD and Costa Coffee of Starbucks arrival in Kamla Nagar as this brand has really caught the youngster frenzy.

It was the same old market with the same shop and store. Little has changed in Kamla Nagar over the past three years. What was missing was the student crowd due to holiday season. Fresh admissions are yet to take place so the market was obviously dull but to someone who spent the best years of his life in this beautiful area North Campus and Kamla Nagar never disappoint. Eager to come back to this beautiful place!!

A party that fizzled out too fast

2014-05-25T21:30:00.000+05:30

Around two years ago began a revolution in the city of Delhi. The story behind the revolution is quite long and started with Anna Hazare a social worker who revolted against the government practices and demanded a Lokpal Bill (Ombdusman) to be passed by the parliament which was hanging since the last several decades. Anna's fast unto death pledge shook the nation and there came a storm of people from all walks of life in his support. Students, professionals, businessmen, retired government officials all stood by their beloved Anna against the corrupt government to showcase the strength of democracy. But Anna had one thing clear in his mind. That he won't enter politics and will be a social worker for the remaining of his life.

Anna Hazare the the leader of India Against Corruption movement

Every group has different sort of people with different ambitions and one was Mr. Kejriwal, a part of team Anna. Kejriwal, an ex civil servant left his lucrative career to work for the welfare of the people through activism. Mr. Kejriwal had a vision different from Anna Hazare and was ready to jump in the political field and serve the people. With this determination he broke up from the Anna movement and formed India's youngest and popular Aam Aadmi Party in November, 2012.

The party caught the frenzy of the people instantly due to its unique style of campaigning which was done in a transparent manner. AAP was the first ever party to declare its donations to the last penny and display them regularly on their website. The road show model to connect with the public directly and discussing local issues made people sympathizers of the party and donations started flowing in good numbers. The party as told by Kejriwaal refuses to be guided by any ideologies and believed in the model of self governance, community building & decentralization.

The AAP had huge fan following just after its inception and became
the second largest party in the Delhi Assembly Elections

The party was critical of the BJP and the Congress and chose its battle turf to be in Delhi. December 2013 assembly elections in Delhi became the claim to fame for the party which emerged as the second largest party in the elections and formed government with the support of Congress. The helm of affairs came under Kejriwal 'The People's CM'.

Just as everything that goes down has to fall but what matters is the speed of the fall in the same way December 2013 was the tipping point for AAP. The party which promised free water, jobs and many other brownies to the electorate was unable to deliver on most of these owing to the practical constraints that any party feels when its in power. Electorate hopes were broken within 49 days when Kejriwal resigned from the CM post blaming the Congress and BJP for not cooperating with the government.

The real reason behind the resignation was may be over ambition of the AAP leaders who were seeing themselves as the king makers in the May 2014 General elections. Whatever the reason, the resignation din't go in favour of the party and Kejriwal was thought to be an offender by the public of Delhi. With an aim at Central politics after a failed stint in a state Kejriwal became ferocious in attacks against the BJP and Mr. Narendra Modi, the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP.

AAP's overconfidence can be judged from the fact that the party contested from 443 seats out of 543 seats in the country with limited money. The party was dependent on Mr. Kejriwal's road shows and the local support base most of which consisted of youth. However, the electorate wasn't kind enough towards the party this time and the party won just four seats and that too from the state from Punjab with no seats from its core state, Delhi.

A humiliating defeat for all the big leaders of the party has put it on severe back foot. What really went wrong with a revolution that promised to change the shape and structure of governance in India?

The reasons are many. Ideology is the main issue. The party doesn't have a thinking and when people with diverse thinking structures come together it will definitely lead to a chaos. The admission of popular faces in the party who in turn came just to have Lok Sabha tickets in hand proved to be another mistake. The single handed focus of the AAP in the election campaign was to malign BJP with any means possible. It was more of an anti BJP party rather than a party which advised a new route of governance.

Whatever may be the other reasons the biggest was Kejriwal's resignation form the post of Delhi CM which was clearly seen by the electorate as his overconfidence to win a sizable number of seats in the General Elections.

The party is facing a complete rout since the results have been announced. The on screen publicity dramas are back with Kejriwal refusing to sign a bail bond in a defamation case and instead opting to go to jail. This has again maligned the image of a party with many seeing it just as a publicity stunt. The latest blow was given when Shazia Ilmi, one of its co-founder quit the party and attacked Kejriwal for being inefficient. There have been rumours that the party wants a change of leadership.

Shazia Ilmi quit the party recently saying that cronies run the party

The Delhi assembly elections are again due and this time the BJP is claiming to make a clean sweep in the national capital. If this happens the chapter of AAP will come to an end before even beginning. The party should hold hands and act wisely in this crucial time. The electorate no more wants publicity stunts but wants strong performance delivered and since AAP has failed before miserably the chances of its success in the assembly elections are bleak.

Book Review: The Accidental Prime Minister

2014-05-23T23:32:00.001+05:30

Sanjaya Baru's, 'The Accidental Prime Minister: The Making and Unmaking of Manmohan Singh', ringed quite a few bells in the political circles when it was launched amidst the Indian General Elections of 2014. It is the only book written by a high level official till date about his experience in the PMO. Now, Sanjaya Baru was PM Manmohan Singh's media advisor for four years from 2004-2008, the period when UPA-I was in power. The book provides an excellent account of the way the government functioned under the Congress party, the descriptions of Manmohan Singh as a politician, economist and finally as a human being makes one realise that how a right man was trapped in a wrong position burdened by excessive authority from the dynasty and party opponents from within.

The book brought a political storm in the country questioning the
timing and intent of release

The publication of the book amid general elections was a controversial move. The Congress came out on all fours attacking Baru to be opportunistic in order to gain some fake fame. But, Mr. Baru personally thought that he will be criticised for giving a positive view about Manmohan Singh and his governance style in the book. Well to agree with Mr. Baru, The Accidental Prime Minister is indeed a positive account of the man. What is inherent in the writing style is that Baru is deeply sympathetic towards Manmohan Singh and has always desired to help him going out of the way taking chances even at the expense of earning some critics in the UPA government. The description of the Ex-PM leaves one wondering about the exceptional qualities and intelligence that the man possesses. What Baru thinks about the book is totally right and without doubt no other book has been and will be more positive about Dr. Singh in years to come.

The next bell rings due to the title of the book. Especially, the words The Making and Unmaking. Firstly, why was he made, what was his role defined as and then why was he Unmade. Another question is, if he knew that he was being unmade why din't he just resign and save his face. The book again answers both the questions clearly from the perspective of Manmohan Singh.

Mr. Baru openly admits that The Family (Sonia-Rahul)
destroyed Dr. Singh's legacy

First discussing the making of Dr. Singh. He accepted the offer to be the PM because he thought that he will get a free hand in taking decisions related to the government as he had a free hand in handling the finance portfolio in the Narsimha Rao government. In effect, he thought that he would run the government and Sonia Gandhi would run the Congress party i.e. the CEO-Chairman model. But the whole model was a trap.

It has been clearly mentioned and observed that from the very first day Manmohan Singh was sidelined by the party president. He din't have the power to appoint his ministers, was not consulted by the Finance Minister in budget matters and was not even respected initially by the senior members of the cabinet who called the PM by his name. So, being the PM Mr. Singh never got that autonomy which he got as the Finance Minister.

What went wrong for Dr. Singh after 2009? Why suddenly the relationship between him and Sonia took a downward dip. Well, to this Sanjaya Baru is himself to blame partially since he tried to make Dr. Singh realise that the UPA-II has come to power due to his stewardship of the country during the past fiver years. Enough evidence of the same has been provided that how people voted for their 'Sardarji' just like people voted for Modi in 2014 elections and not necessarily for the BJP. This thought of being the real hero of the UPA-II turned out to be costly for Dr. Singh since no Congressman could let the image of any person being projected as bigger than those of Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka. He was not allowed to re-appoint Mr. Baru as his media advisor (Dr. Singh had to refuse Mr. Baru after he had invited Baru back and the latter had already resigned from his job in Singapore).

Dr. Singh had enough opportunities to resign and even his wife and daughter wanted him to resign on some occasions, the last being Rahul's open disrespect of the PM and the parliament on the issue of an ordinance on convicted legislatures. But he din't resign because the humble man thought that the country would be worse off under some other PM. Few would doubt this thinking of Dr. Singh as the possible contenders of PM post at that time were likes of Arjun Singh and AK Antony. Dr. Singh's blind eye to the culprits definitely disturbed Baru.

The writing style of the book grips the reader as Baru tries to bring out the well known truths that were never being spoken explicitly. And the controversy was there because a former media advisor was out in the field blaming the top deck, the dynasty system that was prevalent in the century old political party. That Sonia Gandhi was the ultimate decision maker in the UPA is clearly mentioned and even acknowledged by Manmohan Singh in a private conversation with Baru.

Lastly, the description of his relationship with the PM has been done in the finest manner. Mr. Baru was close to the PM and always felt a desire to credit the PM for whatever good he has done. The PM trusted Baru the most and the latter was privy to personal discussions regarding various ministers, heads of states and other matters. He was one of the few people who was allowed to meet Dr. Singh after his heart surgery and Mrs. Singh acknowledged that how the small meeting filled Dr. Singh with renewed courage and vigor to fight to recovery.

The book is a must read for every person interested in politics. One needs to realise that in an effort to unmake Dr. Singh and take the Rahul-Sonia duo to the top the Congress party has ended up routing itself at the national level. With just a handful seats in the Lok Sabha not even deserving to be called an opposition the party needs to get up from the dynasty politics system and introduce democratic system. Had the command been in Dr. Singh's hands the situation would have been different for the Congress. For more information refer to the must read book by Mr. Baru.

Race to Resign - Nitish becomes the first one

2014-05-17T19:18:00.001+05:30

Barely 24 hours have passed since it became clear that the BJP will form the government at the centre with Narendra Modi as the PM and we get the first resignation from a CM. And it's not Narendra Modi who has resigned but his fierce rival and critic Mr. Nitish Kumar the CM of Bihar. This is the same man who tore away a 17 year old alliance with BJP exactly a year ago in June when the latter indicated Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate.

Since Nitish Kumar's JD(U) & BJP formed the government in Bihar the state has seen massive development work with highest GDP growth rate in India for several years (owing to a small base). The prominent place that Nitish Kumar occupied was also due to tarnished image of the previous CM Mr. Lalu Prasad Yadav who was tainted with corruption scandals and criminal cases against him and his key aides. The people of Bihar breathed in a fresh air after the JD(U)-BJP coalition came to power with rising levels of employment, decreasing crime rate & increasing incomes.

What was always a friendly alliance started suffering with the progression of Narendra Modi withing the BJP cadres. JD(U) posted itself as a secular party and thus had access to Muslim vote bank and with Narendra Modi at helm of affairs JD(U) was risking its Muslim votes being sacrificed as Mr. Modi has been seen as a divisive figure by many people.

Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar. Kumar has been a fierce
critic of Modi and has questioned his development model

Also, Mr. Nitish Kumar's 115 seats our of total 243 in the Bihar assembly made him comfortable as finding a majority figure even without BJP wasn't a much difficult task. Nitish Kumar saw huge gains for himself in severing ties with the BJP in form of Muslim vote bank, Hindu votes which came to him on the basis of his development in the state (though the development was done by JD(U)-BJP duo).

In all these circumstances and due to his personal dislike for Mr. Modi (read - A country with a dozen PMs - 25th April, 2014) Mr. Kumar broke away 17 year old coalition with the BJP in June last year.

And no one needs to repeat what happened after this. Lalu Yadav got bail and made a coalition with the Congress, Paswan came into the NDA and the Muslim vote that Nitish was expecting got divided and the Hindu vote went in the favour of BJP (BJP-LJP combined vote share at 35.8% vs 15.8% for JDU).

The results came as a shocker with the NDA bagging 31 brownies out of the total 40 seats and JDU shrinking to just 2 seats. What was initially seen as an achievement by JDU by splitting from the BJP came as a nightmare with the poor performance.

Party Name		Won
BJP		22
OTHERS		1
RJD		4
JD(U)		2
IND		0
CPI		0
RLSP		3
INC		2
LJP		6

Coming to the latest news, the resignation of Nitish Kumar as the CM and his application to the Governor to dissolve the assembly. News and rumors were ripe that the state government may fall soon as many of the sitting JDU MLAs are pitching to support the BJP and thus planning to change sides. The most likely scenario of government falling would have been when the Governors would have changed with the BJP appointing new governors to various states.

Under these circumstances Nitish Kumar resigned himself. The ace politician has earned some positive points in the resignation. Firstly, he has taken moral responsibility for the poll debacle thus encouraging his cadre. Secondly, it was imminent that the state assembly will fall soon due to several MLAs backing out and that would have been insulting for the party as well as for the leader. So by resigning the CM has saved himself and the party from direct insult.

The entire course of events further will be clear in days to come once a full fledged cabinet comes into power after Narendra Modi swears in for the PM post. But one thing is for sure that the Nitish era has also come to an end with the Congress era and speculations regarding the same fate of other states like Uttarakhand are gaining ground.

Such is the political turmoil that one shift at the centre can bring in the circles of power.

Abki Baar Modi Sarkaar!!

2014-05-17T15:01:00.001+05:30

The wait is finally over! After almost a year of hard, backbreaking campaign by the leaders of all political parties, the public invested their faith in the BJP lead government. The credits go to the charismatic Prime Ministerial candidate Mr. Narendra Modi, who made it possible for BJP to bounce back from the cusp of being extinct after the 2004 & 2009 defeats. The scale of victory has broken the records of past three decades with the BJP singlehandedly getting a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha and a huge majority when the list includes the pre-poll allies.

Narendra Modi meeting his mother after BJP won the 2014 General Elections

Congress has been reduced to tatters and has performed worst since independence getting fewer than 50 seats in a house of 543 seats. In five northern states BJP did a clean sweep and almost a clean sweep in UP with the NDA getting 73 out of 80 seats. The magnitude of victory has been so huge that even the top leadership din't expect such a performance.

Existence of regional parties have come under question with the most prominent BSP not been able to get a single seat in the country. SP has been reduced to five seats with all five belonging to its supremo Mulayam's relatives. The communists have been reduced to a mere 10 seats.

BJP's stellar performance in UP which lead to complete rout of BSP, SP
& Congress

The much touted AAP has performed poorly in the General elections. Loosing all the seven seats in Delhi its face saver has been Punjab where it secured four seats due to double anti-incumbency against the existing state government. The party was confident of securing more than 100 seats and was seeing itself as the king maker in the post poll scenario. Apart from Punjab the AAP has not been able to open its account elsewhere. Its heavy weight contenders like Kumar Vishwas from Amethi, Shazia Ilmi from Ghaziabad and several others from high profile seats in Mumbai and elsewhere din't even manage to come second or third despite aggressive campaigning since the last several months.

Arvind Kejriwal, the AAP supremo who advised Modi to concentrate on Vadodara constituency since according to his analysis the PM candidate was loosing by a huge margin in Varanasi against Kejriwal suffered a heavy defeat.

The BJP has come into power because the people of the country have been eaten up by the Congress and the 60 years long dynasty rule. Issues like corruption, red tapism, poverty and many others forced the people to act against one of the most ineffective and corrupt governments that India has ever seen. Be it finance, defence, HRD, external affairs or internal affairs the Congress government failed to perform on any front as the whole attention was on filling of personal coffers on the expense of the poor population.

Sharp fall in economic growth after 2008-09 coupled with corruption
lead to the defeat of Congress

Also, the campaign strategy and the proven work of Narendra Modi gave a ray of light to the people of India. The Gujarat Model which has been tested, tried and applied successfully by the popular Chief Minister proved helpful in influencing people about his credentials.

A glimpse of Modi's Campaign which helped him reach more than
250 million people directly

Much has been said and done about the Gujarat Model of development. Now the nation has given BJP and Narendra Modi a bigger stage, a central stage where everything they do will make a dent on the world scale. Now is the time for them to act and prove what they have preached since the last one year. The stage is set to welcome Narendra Modi and his cabinet to come and put a stop to the era of mis-government which has reigned in India since the last 10 years. And to end it, why not say the couplet which even a two year old has memorized over the last 3 months, ABKI BAAR MODI SARKAR!!!!!

An Unfair Regulator

2014-05-07T22:41:00.000+05:30

With a population of more than 1.2 billion people who are responsible for choosing their leaders, elections in India is a huge event. It is the responsibility of the organizing bodies, government and the present opposition to ensure that everyone gets a fair chance to cast their vote in favour of their leader.

The Indian General Elections 2014 is the biggest ever voting event that has been observed in the history of mankind. With more than 800 million voters and 543 constituencies, organizing such a large scale election event is not an easy task. The Election Commission of India is the organising body which has the responsibility to conduct free and fair elections throughout the country and the regulator is given immense powers that it can act upon in case there is violation of any rule or guideline.

The real play of the Election Commission comes into form on the day the Model Code of Conduct come into application with the announcement of poll schedule. The model code of conduct came to force on March 5th, 2014 and will continue till the declaration of results on May 16th. The Election Commission divided the elections in total 9 phases starting from April 7th and ending on May 12th with different number of seats being put to vote in each phase. The motive behind large number of phases is primarily to ensure that elections are not rigged and to ensure availability of enough security personnel and Election observers at all polling stations which isn't possible if a large number of seats are contested on a same day across varied geographies.

Indian Election Commission is one of the most respected bodies in India as well as around the world. The powers given to the Election Commission even bypass the powers of a Prime Minister during the time the model code of conduct is in force. This can be gauged from the fact that for every move taken after March 5th the Government has to take the permission of EC now be it the appointment of the Naval Chief, issuance of bank licences, conducting some sort of enquiry, etc.

With so much powers in hand the EC if wants can fully ensure that no untoward incident takes places during the election time which may influence voters and cast shadow on the fairness of such a process. But the General Elections of 2014 are painting a different story than what has been heard about the fair regulator.

The facts stated below are just an observation as to how the actions taken by EC appear to a common citizen of India. The EC in the later phases of the polling has been seen as being totally against the current opposition party and its Prime Ministerial candidate Mr. Narendra Modi. Incidents like booking Mr. Modi for flashing BJP sign on the poll venue and talking to the media personnel near the election booth which was although outside the restricted 100 meters radius have cast shadow on the fairness of EC which has acted in a hurry in order to spread negative publicity for the BJP PM candidate.

Modi's selfie with BJP election symbol in hand became a subject of controversy

Not only this, complaints by the BJP regarding rigging at polling booths in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh & Bihar have been totally unheard by the EC when its the duty of the regulator to probe the complaints and give satisfactory reply to the aggrieved party. The harsh attitude of EC on BJP leaders like Amit Shah who was booked for giving a hate speech even when the words religion and caste din't come on his mouth has against pointed questions at the fairness of the EC.

The regulators no objection to the Congress move of appointing an inquiry of the Snoopgate which was clearly being done for political gains have cast apprehensions in the minds of voters as to what side is the regulator playing from.

The latest controversy in which Modi has been denied permission for a rally in Varanasi on May 8th and a permission for a full fleged road show given to Rahul Gandhi in the same city clearly shows the biased attitude of the Returning Officer of the city. ECs deaf ear attitude to the letter written by Mr. Arun Jaitley criticizing the orders of the returning office has somewhat shown that all is not FAIR with the Election Commission now.

I have mentioned just some of the controversial moves by the EC taken in these elections. These are controversial because of their attack on a single party which favours the ruling Congress party which has been facing huge anti-incumbency and has been marred by corruption scandals. The EC has lost some credibility which is unhealthy for the largest democracy of the world.

Amritsar - No cakewalk for Jaitley

2014-04-27T08:25:00.002+05:30

Varanasi and Amritsar are both the holiest places for the Hindus and the Sikhs. And, the BJP has fielded its two most important leaders from both cities, Mr. Narendra Modi from the former and Mr. Arun Jaitley from the latter. Enough has been said and talked about Mr. Modi's Varanasi stint and undoubtedly one can term as it a safe seat for him even though he is facing Arvind Kejriwal from Varanasi who defeated Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit in the Delhi Assembly polls (Sheila was facing triple anti-incumbency and the state of Congress at national level was bad). Here I am going to talk about Mr. Jaitley's contest from the City of Golden Temple 'Amritsar'.

Mr. Jaitley, a politician cum lawyer and the leader of opposition in Rajya Sabha is described as a calm, intellectual and a person with amazing interaction skills. One can take account of his management skills from the sheer fact that it was this person responsible for making BJP win in Gujarat in 2002, MP in 2003, Karnataka in 2008 and has been a face saver of the party at many more instances. He was the President of the popular Delhi University Students Union during his days as a student in the Law College. But, since he came into national level politics what has always eluded him is a Lok Sabha berth. He has always been representing BJP from the Rajya Sabha.

It is an undebatable fact that if NDA comes to power Mr. Jaitley will be holding a key position in the cabinet (talks of being the Finance Minister) owing to his closeness with Mr. Modi and his contribution to the party. So, the party's selection board this time decided to field Jaitley in the Lok Sabha polls to have an elected leader lead an important portfolio and here is when Amritsar comes into the scene.

Jaitley's nomination to contest from Amritsar was welcomed wholeheartedly by the Punjab BJP wing and the Shiromani Akali Dal leaders. Mr. Prakash Singh Badal, went on to say that Mr. Jaitley would be the Deputy Prime Minister of India in the next government. Amritsar was considered a safe seat for Mr. Jaitley until the Congress (under very high drama) announced the previous Punjab CM, Captain Amarinder Singh as its nominee from Amritsar. And since then it has been more or less a battle of the equals from Amritsar.

Congress by nominating Captain has not just confined Jaitley to Amritsar but has also cast shadows on his electoral prospects owing to Jaitley's lack of mass appeal since it is his first Lok Sabha election. Added to this was another worrying fact that elections in Punjab are to be held on April 30th giving ample time to Captain to gain ground against Jaitley.

A seat that appeared too secure suddenly started looking as a mistake. The factors working against Mr. Jaitley are many but the biggest one has been the anti-incumbency being faced by the BJP and SAD candidates in Punjab against the ruling alliance. Elements in the ruling party have been accused of indulging in drug rackets leading to a drug menace in Punjab. The business interests of the Chief Minister and his relatives have alarmed the residents of Punjab. A near to total monopoly over private transport, cable networks and sky rocketing prices of some essential building materials have cast doubts on the ways and means by which the CM has expanded his business exponentially.

Drug menace has severely tarnished the image of SAD lead
government in Punjab

The Badals on the other hand have offered their full support to Jaitley and it is them who can't afford a lose for Jaitley given the impact on their prestige of such an eventuality. Mr. Bikramjit Singh Majithia, brother-in-law of the Deputy CM Mr. Sukhbir Singh Badal has been assigned the duty of managing the Amritsar seat. It is to be kept in mind that the same Majithia was responsible for managing a major chunk of seats during the Punjab Assembly elections of 2012 and giving a a positive result to the Badals on these seats.

Bikramjit Singh Majithia, an able and shrewd administrator

Amrinder Singh's recent comments giving a clean chit to Jagdish Tytler an accused in the 1984 riot's in which around 8000 Sikhs across India were butchered in broad daylight have not been taken in a good taste by the Sikh community. Plus disclosure of his hidden foreign bank accounts by Mr. Subramanian Swamy has stopped Amrinder from declaring it a definite victory for him from Amritsar.

Narendra Modi's rally in Amritsar on April 25th which witnessed brother of
PM Manmohan Singh joining BJP

What happens in Amritsar is truly unpredictable. The city goes to polls on April 30th and is the most watched constituency after Varanasi. A loss for Jaitley won't effect his Ministerial berth (he is already a Rajya Sabha member). Mr. Modi's much anticipated visit to Amritsar on April 25th seemed to have a major effect on the people seeing the massive gathering on the rally. Would this massive gathering convert into a BJP wave and secure the holy city seat for Mr. Jaitley will be finally clear on May 16th.

A Country with a Dozen PMs

2014-04-25T18:49:00.000+05:30

We are currently witnessing the biggest ever human exercise in the form of Indian General Elections 2014. The election is significant because of the sheer extent of the exercise and people are rewarding the exercise by coming out in huge numbers to vote for their leaders. Record breaking turnouts in almost all states are a proof of the trend.

I have always talked about the impact of regional parties in the Indian politics. Just like BJP can't do without Shiv Sena in Maharashtra similarly Congress can't make it without an external support from BSP or SP (it's another matter that both of them provided outside support to the UPA government). Whatever the case may be the importance of regional parties and the impact they make on the regional electorate is huge.

The General Elections 2014, as presented by the media are tilted in favour of the BJP with its charismatic Prime Ministerial Nominee Mr. Narendra Modi leaving no stone unturned to make it a win for himself and the party. Many opinion polls, the authenticity of whom is a subject of debate, have projected that the BJP will be undoubtedly the single largest party in these elections but a tad short of majority, the magical figure of 272 seats. Mr. Rahul Gandhi, the De facto Prime Ministerial candidate for the Congress party has little chances of even crossing a 100 seats mark (out of the 543 constituencies) according to the same opinion polls.

BJP's PM candidate Mr. Narendra Modi during a rally in Varanasi before filing
nomination papers on April 24

If the NDA remains tad short of majority it will have to include some allies apart from the existing ones like the Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal, Telgu Desam Party, etc. Governments in India have always been dependent on allies and coalition governments have successfully functioned in the past.

Though forming coalitions with other parties is a majorly post poll and post result activity but the permutations and combinations for such alliances start way to early. The importance given by the big parties to regional leaders and the sheer fan following of these leaders in their respective regions sometimes lead to a scenario where these leaders shed all leaves of practicality and start dreaming of being the PM.

India is full of leaders with impractical PM ambitions. Instead the talk of a third front government is even more impractical because the coalition will never come in effect when a dozen plus parties with all party leaders dreaming to become the Indian PM are coming together to form a government.

Nitish Kumar, the CM of Bihar has termed himself more
qualified for PM post than Narendra Modi

And the state with the most number of PM candidates is Uttar Pradesh where both SP and BSP supremos have desired to be the PM of India after the general elections of 2014. The SP banking on Muslim vote bank and the BSP on the Dalit vote bank. The neighbouring state present CM, Mr. Nitish Kumar breathing on the Congress support after his party's 17 year old alliance with BJP broke down in 2013 never fails to express that how able an administrator he is and fully capable of running the country (take the fact in consideration that no opinion poll is giving him more than 10 seats our of total 40 in Bihar).

Mulayam Singh Yadav, SP supremo and Mayawati, BSP supremo have expressed
their PM ambitions cashing in on Muslim and Dalit votes, respectively

The question which arises here is that with around 10, 20 or even 30 seats that a regional party aims to gather our of the total 543 seats, how can the party leaders aim to be the PM of a 120 crore plus nation and by surpassing the single largest party which is expected to be just a tad short of majority.

Examples are abound of Ms. Mamata Banerjee from Bengal, Naveen Patnaik from Orissa, Ms. Jayalalithaa from Tamilnadu (who has been aggressively being pitched as the next PM of India through posters and advertisments in Tamilnadu).

There is little doubt in the fact that the single largest party in the General Elections 2014 will need additional allies to form a government but, does this mean that these parties with a maximum of 40 seats out of 543 seats take over the PM candidate of the party getting more than 200 seats and start vouching for their leader to be the next PM?

Or, is it more sensible for these leaders to provide a strong support to the single largest party and vouch for the common interest of the people of India also serving as an automatic check on the single largest party?

Political Heat - A Case of Dirty Language Politics

2014-04-23T22:46:00.000+05:30

The political mood is upbeat right now with record breaking turnouts being observed in almost all the major states and constituencies wherein people are voting to choose their leaders for the General Election 2014. Talking about reasons for such a trend some refer to the massive anti-incumbent mood against the ruling Congress party while others point to the fact that the 12 crore new voters in these elections are coming out in throngs to vote.

Since September 2013 when Mr. Narendra Modi was anointed as the BJP Prime Ministerial Candidate for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls the political heat in the country has risen exponentially with each passing day. National leaders, party supporters, MPs, regional leaders are all busy promoting their parties to the ultimate kingmaker (the voter) through mediums like the print media, electronic media, social networks, road shows, interviews to popular news journalists, mega rallies and private meetings.

Speaking continuously for hours together these leaders and party promoters sometimes land themselves as well as the parties they are representing in grave trouble by their speeches and statements and the run up to General Election 2014 is full of such instances.

Going purely by memory terms one can recollect dozen plus such instances. The Congress leadership till today would be cursing itself for the statement given by its senior most leader advising Mr. Modi to leave the PM ambitions and offer to give him space for a tea stall at one of the party's meetings. And here is when the creative heads behind Mr. Modi's campaign took the issue of a 'Normal Chaiwaala' desiring to become the Prime Minister when people in power consider Chaiwaalas to be of the lower strata.

There is not an iota of doubt in the fact that misstatements by the spokesperson of one party are bound to benefit the other and the extent of benefit depends on the gravity of the statement, the defence mechanism in the culprit party and the offensive action of the other party.

The NCP was put in total back front when the party chief himself asked the electorate to cast the vote twice in order to make their party victorious. The sort of thinking clearly gives us the kind of respect that these leaders have for a fair game play. Even though such a practice of voting twice is not possible because the voting slips are being distributed by the Election Commission itself on every voter's doorsteps.

The main reason for this kind of behaviour by the politicians is the politics of appeasement that is practiced in our country. Be it the appeasement of particular caste, class, tribe or a particular religion as long as this policy is there to stay little control can be brought in to the dirty language being used in the Indian politics.

An army which has never conducted a census based on religion was instantly divided on communal lines by Mr. Azam Khan, the mouthpiece of Samajwadi Party by stating that the Muslim soldiers won the Kargil war for India and no Hindu soldier died during the war. Such statements don't only show the communal mindsets of such leaders but also are a blot on democracy. The right to expression of interest gets hijacked to suit personal motive which here is policy of appeasement.

A real political leader is one who accepts criticism and if elected doesn't indulge in getting after the opposition or the people who doesn't support his ideology. Mr. Giriraj Singh's statement ordering all anti-Modi people to rush to Pakistan shows that some leaders overheated by the political climate cultivate the politics of fear and confusion. A later reprimand by the PM candidate is definitely appreciable but steps should be taken to curb these practices.

The latest controversy to hit the TV screen is of the so called outspoken leader of the Aam Aadmi Party, Ms. Shazia Ilmi who has some problems with the increasingly secular attitude of Muslims living in India. A party promising to be the new hope for the people away from politics of appeasement of the electorate is telling the Muslims to be communal and vote for Jhaadu.

Really, the standards have hit rock bottom in General Elections 2014. And the leaders are not to be blamed in entirety for this rather it is the supporters of such leaders, the parties who doesn't have an active disciplinary committee and last but not the least the regulator for being too soft and toothless on such people.

Tagline(s) & slogans - The essence of political marketing

2014-04-22T23:34:00.000+05:30

'Kuch Meetha Ho Jaye', well I can assure you one thing, the moment you read the opening four words of this piece the first thing comes to your mind is of the popular advertisement campaign of Cadbury India (renamed to Mondelez India recently). Similarly 'Desh Ki Dhadkan' reminds you of how Hero Motorcycles have positioned themselves as the favourite ride of the Indians. Taglines play such an important part in a brand's life because of their recall & emotional value.

The branding umbrella today is not just limited to products and services but encompasses spheres such as politics, social work, etc. The General Election of 2014 is no doubt the biggest branding exercise undertaken in the political sphere of India. Thanks to the outreach of print, electronic and majorly social media that the field of political marketing has taken extreme prominence in this general election. The political scenario in the country can be analysed as a case study in marketing, operational & financial administration and human resources.

Coming to marketing and taglines we have some of India's best creative agencies working whole time for their political clients ranging from McCann Worldgroup for the BJP and Dentsu for the Congress and many more for other parties.

Taglines & slogans have been used before too in Indian politics like 'India Shining' used by BJP during the 2004 general elections but the sort of traction that the concept got in 2014 general elections has taken the concept to new heights. BJP's 'Abki Baar Modi Sarkar' has been a rage on the all the forms of media with social media leading the race. Hardly we can find anyone who has not heard Abki Baar Modi Sarkar advertisement campaign or jokes & memes with same tagline doing rounds on Facebook and Whatsapp. In the electronic media its 'Ache Din Aane Waale Hain' is grabbing all the possible eyeballs.

Impressive work has been done by Congress which currently on the back foot has tried to project the importance of unity over control by a single individual under its 'Main Nahi Hum' slogan. Another one to its kitty is 'Har Haath Shakti Har Haath Tarrakki' which sings the tune of empowerment & development and blends the message with the party's election symbol 'Hand' (Haath).

There are a lot many regional parties with their own taglines particularly wooing the regional voters. The advantage of this form of marketing is conveying a uniform and crisp message to the voters without confusing them regarding the policies of the party concerned.

At this point one can't really decide if these campaigns have an affect on the voting behaviour of the voter but this can be said with certain surety that these taglines have created a lot of recall value for the parties, the prominent faces of the political parties and to some extent the ideologies & future vision of the parties.

To gauge what it means for political parties a post result study and analysis would make things clear for them and help them design their strategies in a more polished way in future.

Indian Print Media - Comparative advantages and challanges

2012-01-16T18:11:00.000+05:30

The paper has been published in the journal published by EGADE Business School, Mexico & Institute of Public Enterprise (IPE), Hyderabad.

Indian print media is one of the largest print media in the world next only to China.

History

The history of the Indian print media started in 1780, when the first newspaper was published by James Augustus Hickey. The name of the newspaper was The Bengal Gazette and it was published in Calcutta (now Kolkata). Hickey is considered as the "father of Indian press". In 1789, the first newspaper from Bombay, the Bombay Herald appeared, followed by the Bombay Courier next year (this newspaper was later amalgamated with the Times of India in 1861).

The first newspaper in an Indian language was the Samachar Darpan in Bengali. Today a large number of newspapers are published in various languages like Hindi, Marathi,Malayalam, Kannada, Tamil, Telugu, Oriya, Assamese, Urdu and Bengali along with other regional languages. It is estimated that around 62,500 newspapers are circulated in India every day according to RNI figures of 2006.

Indian newspaper industry from the very beginning had a very narrow viewpoint. The media focussed on the content of the newspaper. Commerciality was never in the picture primarily because of India being a closed economy, almost zero presence of foreign groups and because of no competition. It was mainly after the economic reforms of 1991 that newspapers adopted a commercial viewpoint and it is at this point that marketing interests overtook editorial priorities. The newspaper industry completely took a turn around and became one of the most aggressive and competitive market so much so that the competition is very much alive and continuing today also.

Supremacy of regional language papers

The Indian language papers have taken over the English press as per the NRS survey of newspapers. The main reason being the marketing strategy followed by the regional papers. Another reason is the growing literacy rate. Increase in the literacy rate has direct positive effect on the rise of circulation of the regional papers. The people are first educated in their mother tongue as per their state in which they live for e.g. students in Punjab are compulsory taught Punjabi language and hence they are educated in their state language and the first thing a literate person does is read papers and gain knowledge and hence higher the literacy rate in a state the sales of the dominating regional paper in that state rises.

The next reason is localisation of news. Indian regional papers have several editions for a particular State for complete localisation of news for the reader to connect with the paper. Malayala Manorama has about 10 editions in Kerala itself and five outside Kerala and two abroad (Bahrain and Dubai). Thus regional papers aim at providing localised news for their readers. Even Advertisers saw the huge potential of the regional paper market, partly due to their own research and more due to the efforts of the regional papers to make the advertisers aware of the huge market. Also the structure of the Indian print media industry is highly fragmented with importance to regional dominance.

But it has also been observed that this trend of regional newspapers being the forerunner is more popular in rural areas. In urban areas like Mumbai and Delhi English newspapers though don’t take a lead as compared to regional language papers but still their readership figures are quite high.

Fragmented Industry

The regionalism aspect is clearly visible in the newspaper sector. The print media is further divided on the basis of the languages. Of the daily newspapers, about 46% are vernacular, 44% are in Hindi and 10% are English. Hindi and vernacular language newspapers offer a local and regional flavour to their readers. The content and circulation of English-language newspapers, on the other hand, are largely focused on the primary urban centers. Approximately 7% of the population in urban areas read English-language newspapers, compared to a readership of only 0.3% of the population in the rural areas. In contrast to this, Hindi-language newspapers have a proportionately larger readership in rural areas, in addition to their strong presence in urban areas, with a readership of approximately 15% and 5% of persons in urban and rural areas, respectively. The newspaper industry is regionally divided, with existing players enjoying strong brand loyalty. For e.g. Times of India follows strong brand loyalty in Mumbai and it was difficult for Hindustan Times to enter Mumbai.

The newspaper industry has relatively high entry barriers due to the strong brand equity of existing players. Also, existing players have strong control over the distribution network, making it difficult for new players to enter.

Measurement

Newspapers in India are measured on two parameters, circulation and readership.

Circulation

Circulation is certified by the Audit Bureau of Circulations which is an industry body. It audits the paid-for circulation of the member newspaper companies.

The total circulation of newspapers in India is around 5,00,00,000 copies per day with Hindi newspapers leading with 3,76,42,520 copies and English dailies following at 1,29,14581 copies.

The Times of India has six English dailies with circulation of 25,42,075 copies

Readership

Readership is estimated by two different surveys, The Indian Readership Survey (IRS) and the National Readership Survey (NRS). In 2007 both NRS and IRS joined hands together for a single survey of newspaper readership. According to NRS survey of 2006 there are around 222 million readers of newspapers. That constitutes around 22 percent of the population. The growth rate has been roughly around 3 % per annum. According to these figures the average readership in 2011 will be around 255 million readers. Press reach in urban areas hover around 50 % and in rural areas it is around 20 %. The number of readers in urban and in rural areas are almost the same. The average time spent on reading newspapers is 39 minutes.

The size of India newspaper industry is about Rs. 200 billion which has a CAGR of around 13 %

Growth drivers

Higher literacy levels: The literacy rate has reached close to around 75 % as compared to around 63 % in 2001. There has been a huge shift in the literate population. People like reading and spare time to read for their own benefits. Indian print media still just serves 35 percent of the population as against global average of 55 percent. There are tremendous chances for growth in the country.

Lower cover prices: Earlier, due to strong hold over a region, the newspaper had higher cover charges. However, with increasing competition and venture into newer regions the companies have reduced the cover prices to augment more sales. Many English dailies are sold for as low as Re 1 or Rs 2. Today you can get a two year subscription for Hindustan times in just 249 rupees that translates to Rs. 10 per month. The prices are so low that even the people living in the lower strata of the society can easily afford it. This is contrary to the fact that in western countries the same newspaper is sold at cost price which is much higher than the price at which the customer gets paper in India. The western paper like The Wall Street Journal has adopted the same American Strategy in India and is sold at a price of Rs. 25 per copy. An average Indian can’t buy this newspaper due to cost. Though the market for the paper are the business class people who keep a watch on US economy.

Higher ad spends: Print media accounts for 48% of the total Rs 190 billion advertising spend in the country. However, the ad spend in India is just 0.4% of GDP as against 0.5% in China, 1.3% in the US and a world average of nearly 1.0%. With rising consumerism and growing interest from domestic and global brands in Indian market, the growth in ad segment is expected to be strong. Economic prosperity, localisation of news and the potential of Indian print media to penetrate deeper into the market is slated to increase India’s ad spend-to-GDP ratio. The rise in domestic demand is surely increasing the marketing spend of companies, even in relatively low-ad sectors like DTH, retail and insurance. The strong economic boom is also giving rise to new businesses which, in turn, would turn mega advertisers in the time to come. While regional advertising will act as the main driver, ad spends in English are also picking up. For an industry which depends on advertising revenues, more than subscription revenues, the overall trend will keep the Indian print media industry in good stead unlike its global counterparts.

Economic boom in semi-urban and rural India:The Indian consumption story is no longer an urban prerogative. The rural monthly per-capita consumption expenditure has outpaced the urban figure - thanks primarily to potent government schemes like NREGA and higher minimum support for crops and the percolation of overall economic boom in rural areas that has brought about a surge in consumption growth. This shift has prompted advertisers to focus on semi-urban and rural areas. As newspapers are the only cost-effective media in this belt, as much as 50 per cent of small advertisements now appear in regional newspapers. Not surprisingly, this new wave acts as an enabler for profitable newspaper launches in rural India. But competition would be more prominent in the Hindi language space given the scope in terms of penetration levels, revenue growth potential, expected capex and pre-breakeven period and cover prices. English and other language publications in comparison are likely to see less competition, given the prohibitive high-entry costs and reasonably high penetration levels.

Growing content localization:Local content, hitherto, has never seen a place of pride in the national media coverage. Traditionally, English have ruled the roost. The English newspapers, focused on top 20 cities, account for 50 per cent of the print media’s ad spend. With time, local content is being placed at a premium, more so by the advertising community, to reach out to a large untapped market. As newspapers hold the edge in the rural segment, local content-based regional newspapers (led by Hindi) are increasing readership in regions with low media penetration and, in the process, developing local advertising markets. They will also enhance their value in terms of price, visibility, content, design and aesthetics. Slowly but steadily, they will outpace the English language publications. The gap in ad rates, between English and non-English newspapers, was down to 9x in 2009 from 12x in 2003. This gap will further reduce in the years ahead.

Upside potential of print media penetration:The average penetration of newspapers is just 38 percent of the total population. So there is huge potential of an upswing in the readership. Moreover, the total readership which includes several fringe consumers looks potentially inflated. The average readership, the relevant parameter in the context of print media advertising, stands at a mere 16 per cent. Seeing such a low number one could imagine the market potential of Indian print media. The days have just started for this industry. Appropriate actions, techniques and methods will surely give results to the newspaper corporations. ‘Of course, players in the print media will have to be agile and responsive to the emerging challenges of tomorrow to be able to sustain their growth’ as said by Mr. Shankar Narayan, CFO, Bennett & Coleman Group.

Strategies of newspaper companies: As a result of economic reform in 1991, the India newspaper industry started thinking globally. They learnt to increase the size of their newspaper. Various supplements for women, on cars, careers, technology etc. come along with the main newspaper. These are printed on glossy newspaper. Many people just see the newspaper for reading these supplements. For example, Delhi Times, the daily supplement of The Times of India in Delhi is very popular amongst the youth. This attracts a huge audience/reader group. Also the classified pages in the newspapers receive the maximum hits. A reader can search for anything and everything from the newspaper. Classifieds range from car sale, real estate, wedding classifieds, job hiring, and government tenders, etc.

“Over a period of time, competition will lead to consolidation and the marginal players will disappear. The strategy would be to constantly innovate, thereby providing a compelling value proposition to both advertisers and readers”

Rising newspaper-reading population in India:Although the literacy rates are rising in India, they have little relevance for the newspaper reading population of India. A more appropriate parameter is the enrolment ratio for secondary school education that’s rising at a steady rate across the country. This parameter paves the foundation for newspaper reading habit among the students of 10-15 year age group. As we can foresee a leap in this ratio even going forward, the addressable market for print media is set to rise significantly in the coming decade.

Mentality and viewpoint of people:Worldwide the news is that the internet has dented the profitability of the print media. Readers increasingly want their news free, causing loss of circulation and through it, of ad revenues. Some people saw it as a threat and quickly turned on to internet business. This was done by most of the western businessmen. But in India there is a different story. Today a newspaper in India sees the internet only as an archive, or to give an e-paper edition of their existing print paper. The time to panic for Indian media companies has not come yet and isn’t expected to come in the near future. This is basically due to the mentality of the Indian population. Indian people are not very tech savvy and also the reach of internet is not widespread. It is difficult to get media sites in local languages and even if they are in local language it is not very convenient to browse through these sites. However the print media companies should not take this for granted. They should start their way towards digitalization so as to be prepared in case of a total turn around which is unlikely to happen.
India has the second highest circulations of newspapers in the world next only to China. Unlike west where internet and television have proved to be grave threats to the print media in India these threats are still at a nascent stage.

FDI in Print Media

Most Indian print players continued to dominate the local regions and did not enter new territories, mainly due to lack of funds. However, foreign investment regulations were relaxed in 2002. Currently, up to 26% foreign direct investment (FDI) is permitted in newspapers and periodicals dealing with news and current affairs. In non-news publications, 100% foreign investment is permitted. Since the changes in the regulation many foreign investors have taken strategic stakes in the domestic print media companies.

The first company to take the leap was Business Standard. Various foreign companies entered into agreement with Indian magazines like Autocar.

Costs

The major costs that newspaper publisher faces in the newsprint cost. It accounts for 40-50 percent of the total operating costs. If the prices of newsprint rise it directly affects the profitability of the firm as it is not possible to increase the price in such a competitive market and pass on the hike to the customers. Also the companies can’t hike the advertisement rates until a uniform step is taken by the whole industry. Factors like US recession, natural calamities in countries who are the major suppliers like China affect the price. This gives an advantage to the domestic newsprint firms who charge high prices for the same.

Companies go in for marginal hike in advertising rates in such situations and advertisements account for more than 70 percent of the revenues. The price of newsprint is around 700 $ per tonne.

The average cost for any newspaper is much higher than the price at which it is sold in the Indian market. In India dailies like The Times of India and the Hindustan Times are sold at a price of just Rs. 2.5 while their printing and distribution costs sum up to around Rs. 14 per newspaper. This clearly shows the dependency of the print media industry on advertising. It is no surprise that media revenues in China are eight to ten times than that of India. Till today the largest media group is yet to touch $ 1 billion revenue mark. The Times of India Group lead with revenues hovering around Rs. 20 billion. Gross margins are expected to be in range of 25-30 %.

Internet the biggest threat

In the west considerable damage has been done by the internet to the print media. People are tech savvy and this has taken its toll on the print media. More and more people are shifting from reading newspapers physically to the E-paper format. This has led to lower revenues for the media agencies not only in the form of sale revenue but also in the form of lower advertising revenue. Media houses in the west have moved to the electronic format having no choice left for them.

In India, though at present there has been no major threat posed by the internet but the literal doom of print in the west is an indication that someday or the other it will hit our industry also. At present few groups have forayed into the internet field. And mostly who have stepped in this field has done this with the sole motive to adding to the revenues and the trick is working. TOI group website www.timesofindia.com is the most visited site and earn a sizeable amount of revenues for online advertising.

But this format is short lived because one day will come when the journalists will have to tune to the internet tone. It will be the day when internet will be stronger than the traditional print media. The journalist at that point of time will see himself not just as a writer but also as multimedia personnel who dabbles with written record, photographs and videos. He will have to assume a multi dimensional role which requires a complete change an up gradation of mindset. This entails that the print media industry will have to change the way they are doing things currently and do a lot more than what they are doing just now.

Here we quote an example. Suppose a newspaper publishes an interview of a renowned person. The article is always edited and only a part of the interview is printed owing to the space constraints. Now to cover this gap the newspaper company puts the interview transcript on the internet and provides the information regarding the same on the newspaper. So the interested readers can log on to the net to get the full article. Also what a newspaper can do is to provide the video of the interview on the net which is currently being done by very few organisations.

There is dual benefit for such a step by the newspaper company. Firstly it benefits the consumer by giving him complete information and thus increases brand loyalty. Secondly it also allows the newspaper company to foray into new markets one being the online market and the other being the electronic media market. The newspaper company can also as for payment for the full article or for the video which again will generate revenues.

Obviously there’s a lot more that the Indian newspaper industry can do. Lionel Barber says what he made his team of journalists do. “We told the journalist to create more value. They had to go in front of the camera and speak about the big stories, do short and long commentaries, team up with cable companies to provide TV programs etc.”

Mint, a business newspaper of the Hindu group in collaboration with the Wall Street Journal, posts all the interviews on its site and at the end of the day it also provides a wrap up of all the important news of the day just as a television news channel. It also has its own application which can be downloaded on the computer network and then all the major news gets reflected on the desktop without opening or refreshing the site again and again. The times of India group in collaboration with its business news channel ‘Times Now’ and entertainment channel ‘Lehren’ posts videos all day round on its newspaper website. TOI also has a mobile application in which the user can download read the paper online through mobile again without using the mobile browser.

It is true that initially it would be task to translate the benefits of the same to the advertisers since they are not just unaware, but unsure of the web’s potential, it is but a matter of time when they would come around. Also using interesting strategies, like giving a package deal for both the print and the web edition that is cost effective and maximizes reach, would help warm up unaware brands to the webs potential.

Globally, convergence in print is happening out of necessity rather than strategy. In India there is hardly any focus on convergence as of today. However, the time is not far when even for the Indian print media it would become a matter of necessity. The ones who begin now would be the ones who would benefit sooner and longer.

Overview

The spectacular growth of newspapers in India in the first decade of 21st century is perhaps the most gladdening and surprising story for media world. Particularly, because the phenomenon was witnessed when America and Europe witnessed drastic fall in readership and several newspapers stopped print editions to switch to just online versions. Ten years ago there were few papers and just a couple of standard magazines. Until 2000, the newspaper industry appeared saturated and no new players were emerging. Perhaps the only exception was Times of India that was growing exponentially. It was no different for the regional language media either. But the situation has changed dramatically in the decade 2001-2010. New mass circulated daily newspapers emerged on the scene and established newspapers also grew. Besides, more magazines are now available than ever.

The circulation of magazines may not have increased dramatically but the overall reach and their impact has gone up. In terms of special and investigative stories The Week, and of course Tehelka, have consistently scored over India Today. Among the major positive changes that occurred in this decade include:

1. A new daily newspaper DNA ‘Daily News Analysis’ was launched from several cities.

2. New financial daily, Mint, makes its mark and now has multiple editions across the country

3. TOI goes down South and becomes a pan-Indian newspaper

4. Tehelka, first as weekly paper and later in magazine format, makes a mark

5. MJ Akbar's Covert is launched but when it closes down, he launches The Sunday Guardian weekly.

6. Arindam Chaudhuri launches The Sunday Indian.

7. Invent of foreign newspapers and magazines like The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Economist, etc.

The circulations of newspapers continue to grow. While industry pundits predicted doom for print media, they forgot that in India, there is almost 40% population that is yet to achieve basic literacy.
In India revenues aren't drying up as the TV channels have reached their optimum in terms of advertising revenues. However, newspapers remain a major source for information and the classified advertisements continue to grow and fetch returns.

The soaring circulations in Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have forced papers to launch separate pull outs for districts and pages for small cities and towns.

While New York Times and Boston Globe had a tough time continuing their print editions, in India regional dailies are selling in millions [tens of lakhs] and the readership is in crores and is rising steadily. Defying global trends and negative predictions, the Indian AKHBAR survives.

Clearly, it was a decade of media revolution and revival in India. As far as standards of journalism, the trivialization of news, the India TV phenomenon and the focus on Bollywood gossip was the main focus of the decade.

SURVEY AND FINDINGS

We conducted an online survey to see the awareness and perception of people regarding newspapers. The survey asked questions like the newspapers being read, the awareness among people regarding the fact that the newspaper is sold in India at highly subsidised costs, the likes of people when it comes to supplements and also the trend of online reading.

The survey was mostly filled by people in the age group of 21-25 (>80 %). This is a group which has members like students or budding professionals. This group is often very much aware about the surroundings and is quite active. Male – Female ratio was observed to be 6:4.

We saw that more than 85 % of the population belonged to urban India. Rural respondents were just about 15 % of the total population. This clearly states the fact that media like internet have not fully penetrated in the rural markets and thus there is a wide scope of growth in these areas.

Out of the total population each and every respondent read English daily. Hindi and other regional papers were just read by around 10 % of the population.

The Times of India was read by 80 % of the population. In the business dailies section The Economic Times took lead with attracting 50 % of the population. Other competitors were far away from the leaders.

Around 75 % of the group doesn’t feel advertisements to be distractions in the newspapers. When later interviewed on individual basis the people responded that advertising is a great source of information. It shows the power and visibility of the brand and build image in their minds.

It was surprising to know that around 70 % of the survey takers knew that the actual cost of the newspapers is much higher than the cost at which they get to read the papers. This shows that the sample chosen was young, energetic and up to date with all the advancements. Some even cited that this is the main reason they don’t see advertisements as a distraction as advertisements help the newspaper company to charge lower price from the readers.

But the trend saw a little downward movement when asked if they know that India is among one of the few countries where newspapers are supplied at so low costs. More than 50 % people didn’t have a hint of this fact. This fact affected the psychology of people who believed that advertisements are a big distraction and as a result more than 95 % people agreed to the fact that advertisements are not distractions seeing the world scenario of newspaper pricing.

Coming to supplements as expected entertainment supplements were the most sought supplements with almost 71 % of the respondents reading these supplements. Among these supplements the regular supplement of The Times of India Group (Delhi Times, Bombay Times) scored the top rank. Some of the respondents even said that they just read newspapers to have a look at the supplements as it tell what is happening in the glam world.

Career related supplements attracted around 60 % of the applicants. These supplements are full of knowledge that a person needs to groom his/her personality and are thus quite popular among the age group our survey attracted.

Sports, Technology and Automobile supplements attracted around 50 % of the readers. We saw only 2 % of the participants reading marriage classifieds which shows that people in this group place their career above marriage obligations.

Other supplements like real estate, women related attracted around 20 % of the population.

The last portion of the survey tried to find out the trend in online reading habits. Till now almost 50 % of the population don’t read news online. They like reading news on paper. Around 8 % of people don’t read physical paper for reasons that they mind paying even Rs. 75 for a newspaper a month when it is available for free. The rest 40 % of the people read both online and physical paper. Respondents told us that while online news is important to get latest information at earliest possible time, physical paper is important as the Indian population is yet not accustomed to read a lot from the computer screen. Among the online sites www.timesofindia.com and www.moneycontrol.com took lead in general and business news category respectively.

Thus we saw the trends in the whole paper regarding newspaper readership in India. We come to a conclusion that Indian market has a lot more potential. The vast rural market is still untapped and the day companies’ start focussing that side their fortunes will be even bigger.

Inefficiency of the monetary policy

2011-11-18T19:34:00.001+05:30

Inefficiency of the monetary policy

Why Increase in Repo and Reverse Repo Rates has not been Able to Tame Inflation?

Inflation is the biggest problem of India. Spiraling inflation close to double digits have taken economists, politicians, businessmen, policy makers & Mr. Dhruvi Subbarao aback. This may be pronounced as the toughest term for any RBI Governor who has to face constant criticism from almost every newspaper for constantly revising the key rates upwards. And on October 25, yet again it happened for 13^th time since March 2010. The spiral of inflation has caught the economy and RBI can’t do anything at the moment. Rising rates have affected the economy and growth has been compromised. With food inflation at 10.63% and general inflation being nearly 10% it’s a tough call for the policy makers.

There is a tradeoff between inflation and growth and RBI has chosen to favor policies to reduce inflation. The interests of the common have been kept at the top. With vegetables and other necessities reaching sky rocketing prices its becoming very difficult for a common man to earn an sustain with a minimal income level. Rupee value has eroded. Nominal income increase has not been enough to surpass the inflation levels. As a result, real income and purchasing powers have fallen drastically. There has been no addition in real money with the people. Here we would like to quote an example.

The interest on Fixed Deposits with banks is around 9% per annum. So if a person invests Rs. 1,00,000 today he will get Rs. 1,09,000 after one year if we assume no taxes. The inflation rate is around 10%. If the same person buys a good for Rs. 1,00,000 today he will need Rs. 1,10,000 the very next year to buy the same good. This clearly shows the eroding value of currency. Even the savings appreciation is not able to cope up with higher levels of inflation.

The rate hike has become so common since the past 1.5 years that now people don’t even pay attention to the earlier breaking news “RBI HIKES KEY RATES BY ____ BPS.” People already predict the moves and make their decisions. Businesses are finding It difficult to raise money, investments are going out of the country, people search for safe havens to park their savings but nothing at present is giving them respite from the inflation and rate hikes.

The impact of increasing the repo and the reverse repo rate has not been uniform. Initially the inflation has decreased but after July 2010 the inflation rate in fluctuating irrespective of changes in interest rates. This shows that the favourite tool of the policy makers to tame inflation has indeed been unsuccessful.

Now let’s examine as to why the policy has been unsuccessful.

First of all I would like to tell about demand side inflation. This is the kind of inflation which is generated due to excess demand by the consumers. Since the supply is limited an increase in demand creates a situation of excess demand and puts upward pressure on the prices of goods & services which leads to inflation. It is this kind of inflation where oppressive/contractor policies like raising interest rates work because these directly affect the purchasing power by decreasing the easy accessibility of money. Developing countries are the min ones which experience demand side inflation. In India there has been increase in demand of goods and services but this reason is not sufficient to justify an inflation level of 10%. There are some other reasons which have created the actual problem.

First problem is the government expenditure. Inflation is caused when there is excess money inflated in the market when it is not needed or at a time when it can be postponed to a further date. Government of India has resorted to measures of deficit financing that is printing of currency to fund its fiscal deficit. There has been a marked increase in social contribution schemes like MNREGA. More money is being paid to government servants as a result of implementation of the sixth pay commission. Heavy amounts are being spent on subsidies on fuel, fertilizers, electricity, etc. All this is contributing to inflation in their own way. Unless the government reduces the gap between its revenue and expenditures inflation will remain a concern. Neither RBI nor any other regulator can do anything in this. All the results have just downgraded the economy by hampering growth.

The other factor for the problem of inflation and failure of RBI policies is the supply side problems. India today doesn’t have enough storage capacity with it to store food grains. Millions of tons if left in open to rot. The demand is ever increasing and the inefficient storage system and poor infrastructure isn’t able to meet the existing demand left along the increased one. Transportation of goods, storage, production and other process all face infrastructure problems. This is the reason whole supply chain is loaded with defects and problems. Railways are over utilized and still can’t meet the needs of transportation fully despite the fact that transporting from railways is far cheaper. Roads are bad which increases time of transportation, repair costs of vehicles and fuel expenses.

The Central and State Government conflicts are also contributing to the problem. Some states don’t accept the grains sent by Central government and they are left unattended. So, how can any RBI policy tame inflation when the problem is not the one created by demand side. It’s a vicious circle created by the government. And the ministers are not willing to accept the fact.

RBI urgently needs to limit further policy rate hikes. The current 8.50% is already at a highly unhealthy level. There is a need to decrease these rates before further growth is compromised. Banks have been downgraded; investor confidence is at all time low, markets are lull. Industrial production and growth has been falling constantly. For a change to happen an initiative by the government is must. Adequate infrastructure should be built up to improve the supply side problems. Deficit should be controlled and a balance should be maintained between revenues and expenditures.

It is no fact that in a global economy no central bank or government has full control over the economic activities. However this should not stop the government and the bank to put for structural reforms. This one change may become solution for all the problems in the economy.

Numbered SMSes !! On a lighter note

2011-09-28T22:26:00.000+05:30

Since last one year I was hearing that all the unwanted messages won't come now as TRAI is taking steps to curb this message chaos that is created by the so called consultants, read estate agents, slim belt sales, etc. This was a welcome news and it was confirmed that starting Jan 1, 2011 the scheme will be put to effect. However, ours is a country where you can never expect things to happen on time (DELHI METRO is an obvious exception). So the process was delayed 4 times an finally on Sep 26 (Plus/Minus one day) the scheme came into force.

As I said this move has always been welcomed by the mobile phone users what came along was the regulation capping maximum number of messages sent to 100 even by normal users. Well, the news din't effect the generation of my parents obviously because for them calling is a better option. But I was particularly shocked am was really sad over the issue.

What I felt was like a child whose favorite toy has been snatched away. The whole day I was thinking what will I do now. The order was a blow to me and for most of the college students like me who are addicted to messaging. What this meant was no quirky messages, no casual hello/hi. Every message had to be sent after careful thinking that is it worth to waste 1 out of 100. It looked like as if I am going to head a strategic team of a company.

What else I noticed was that the messages that irritated me once upon a time, I started missing them. They became a routine an it was like a time check since some of the messages (like that of fashionandyou.com) come exactly at 11.00 am. I remember yesterday I took out my phone to check the time and it was 11:15 am and the first thing I notice said was ''How is it possible? No message.'' Unaware of the news I slid my phone into my pocket until I read from the newspaper and realized that the deal was on cards just that it slipped my mind. Everyday in the morning there was a habit to be welcomed by 2-3 messages sent during the night but now I observe that my cell phone takes a good sleep everyday.

One thing was really amusing that I noticed yesterday and it made me realize that politics is something that can interfere in each and every topic because what is needed is to be in the opposite side and oppose the move. One political affiliation (won't take the name as nothing wrong against the party) staged a protest opposing 100 SMS cap saying that it is like limiting the freedom of youth of the country. Though I support the protest but my reasoning is a bit different. What else came to my mind is that we as public can always find out faults in others. If the political wing is trying to work even in our favor we end up accusing them of making issue out of small things.

Today morning again came as a blow to me with TRAI stating that it has no plans to withdraw the regulation even from normal users. So what to do? Whatsapp? Thats the only option I have (I am not a proud owner of blackberry). But there are issues with this app. Its not widely used an its just a smartphone app. So this goes out of focus. I won't get into app reviews but the bottom line is that the messaging legacy that I followed since the last 8 years is coming to an end.

The loneliness I felt without the commercial SMSes forced me to send DND to 1909 to allow these firms to message me. I also feel that was it required to stop these services? What if we receive many messages which are unwanted. What we don't realize is that the mind has molded itself and made it a part of our life. Like say silk, silk silk, silk, silk about 7 times and fast. Now answer what to cows drink? Be spontaneous. What did you answer? I bet it is milk and not water :) Surprised? And now you will be laughing.

So if the same thing happens everyday you will feel disgusted but you don't realize that your mind has accepted it as a regular part of life. What differs is your perception.

So always be happy and always keep your mind open and perception wide.

I would like to thank my friends for encouraging me to write and for liking my articles. Still I would like to say that I am just a beginner with no knowledge and sense. What I need is your continued support in my endeavors.

Overview of African market as an investment opportunity

2011-09-27T22:43:00.000+05:30

Africa, once the richest continent in the world has a painful story to its part. It has been the most dominated continent and even the most exploited one. Centuries of foreign rule left the African population to shackles. Poverty, starvation, unemployment, political disturbance are still the problems rampant in most of the African countries like Congo, Zimbabwe, etc. Most of the African countries got freedom in the late 1950’s and the new unstable governments lacked impetus and confidence to help the ailing population. As a result African population went deep and deep in the vicious circle of poverty.

Africa is the world’s second largest continent it is also the most populous continent just after Asia. The population of Africa is more than 1 billion. With such a massive population even if more than 35 % of the entire population is living below the poverty line it is very clear that African market is one which has one of the most highest potential for growth. What is lacking in Africa today is infrastructure but companies from countries like India, China and other mostly Asian countries have started realizing the worth of a market like Africa and have realized the actual potential.

The actual GDP per capita in Africa is around 1200 dollar. It varies between different countries with Equatorial Guinea leading with a PPP GDP of $ 36,000 and countries like Democratic Republic of Congo having a GDP per capita of mere $ 300. This shows highly unequal distribution of income in Africa. To see from a company’s point of view this distribution is one which can be of most help for a company as this is the easiest way to select the target market. Companies investing in Africa have an edge of making a first move and catering to a large market. Also other advantage that foreign companies get is relatively less expenditure on research to find out the market potential. Need and income availability are the signals for a potential market.

I would specifically take examples of two products/services which have been successfully launched by the foreign companies in Africa. The first will be of the telecom sector and second of FMCG sector.

As regards telecom sector, Africa has the highest growing telecom sector in the world with an average growth rate of more than double of the fast growing Asian markets. Countries like Nigeria have a growth rate of more than 100 %. Africa is a home to huge population and it is a fact that less than 5 % of the world’s telecom lines are there in Africa. Thus it can be very rightly said a totally untapped market by the multinationals. The fact that multi nationals are being mentioned is because the amount of infrastructure required to mobilize telecom industry is not present in Africa both in terms of technical labour, technology, etc.

Companies like Zain from Kuwait, Etisalat from Dubai, Bharti Airtel from India have made some aggressive take over moves in the recent past showing clear interest in the African telecom market. Chinese companies are also coming as they are looking for markets which are in great need for telecom infrastructure.

We take the case of Bharti Airtel from India buying the African operations of Zain Africa in 2010. It became the biggest ever take over by an Indian telecom company in a foreign country. Airtel now operates in 19 African countries and has the largest customer base in the continent. As said by the executives of Airtel that it was becoming increasingly difficult to survive in the highly saturated Indian market they were forced to look for alternate options. While DTH and other services did the support work but the core competency needed to be employed somewhere and this led to desperate search for a market. Africa is a promising market due to a wide range of factors and also it is a market which can be tapped easily due to supportive governments. This was a true enthusiasm for Airtel to tap this lucrative market.

FMCG sector in Africa shares almost the same story in Africa just the difference is the type of market targeted and the situations that are faced by the FMCG companies. While telecom is a sector which can be defined under the head of development of basic infrastructure, FMCG is not a sector which can be categorized in this form. This is a sector which thrives on the presence of basic infrastructure like roads, railways, telecom, etc.

FMCG sector requires the basic infrastructure to reach the ultimate consumer. Until sometime in the past African market was not receptive or was not growing at a pace at which the multi nationals wanted it to grow at. The problem with this sector is huge income disparities among various African countries. The product which may work for Nigeria and Egypt may not work for Congo or Ethiopia.

For instance companies like SABMiller have to offer different types of drinks in different markets. Basically a brewer it had to offer various other drinks like cassava beer and also drinking water. SABMiller agrees that government support is something which helps it to grow continuously in Africa though the beginning was very bad due to non receptive African market but finally SABMiller has acquired a place in the market and is expanding now.

One more benefit that the African market offers to the retailers is price setting. Price can be set seeing the paying capacity of the market and a price higher that the price charged in non African countries is set. The basic reason for this phenomenon is lack of information and lack of competition in the market. While local players have limited powers as to attract public, multinationals are also scattered thus offering opportunities for charging a higher price. Though problems are there which are slow growth of this sector and also the bureaucratic hurdles being faced but this didn’t stop companies like Walmart and Nestle to enter in the market and explore its huge potential.

Indian companies are also not behind in the race to tap Africa. Companies like Dabur and Godrej are already leaders in African hair care market. Taking the case of Dabur, it has significant presence in Nigeria and Egypt with manufacturing facilities in both of the countries. Two more factories in Kenya and South Africa will become operational soon. Dabur executives agree that Africa is the epicentre for their growth in future. They agree that infrastructure is a big problem in distribution but are also hopeful that in the coming years the growth story of African FMCG market will be completely different.

Also another example can be taken of Rasna squash. The Ahemdabad based company has accumulated substantial revenue by entering Africa again taking Nigeria as a base. The company is planning to set up manufacturing unit in Africa so as to cater the wide market there. Rasna chairman also says that Africa is a special market where cola drinks are preferred unlike India. India remains the top most priority but the untapped market of Africa is an asset in itself for the company.

Thus we saw the strategies various multinationals of the world are taking to tap African market. We stressed on mainly the Indian companies but the western multinationals are even more aggressive when it comes to service Africa. It all depends on a company choice. While for Indian companies to expand the obvious choice is Africa but the western multinationals have choices in Asia particularly India and China and also Africa which at present doesn’t provide return as good as these developing nations.

The gradual change in attitudes of the African citizens followed by government interest and intervention in the life of ordinary people to help them come out of poverty will be a great impetus to the multinationals that are desperate to work in Africa. Also there presence can help improve infrastructure in the continent and improve standard of living of the people there. Africa is the continent which is the future of growth, full of opportunities and promises success. With western markets saturated, Asia being growing towards saturation only Africa is the nation which can change fortunes. Not only telecom and FMCG other sectors also like banking and financial service sector, food and other service sector have a bright future in Africa. The only thing to be observed now is when do these companies realize the actual worth of such a market and start reaping the benefits.

Rural Health an Sanitation - An overview

2011-09-26T23:39:00.001+05:30

India is the world’s largest democracy with a population of 1.2 billion. It has around 6,30,000 villages which are homes to around 70 percent of the Indian population. Rather the concept of urban India is a new one. From ancient times Indians adapted a village life style of living. There was limited trade and villages were self sufficient. Harmony, unity and diversity the three pillars of Indian culture are primarily adapted for the village life style.

Today also more than 50 % of the people in India depend on farming (agriculture and allied activities) for their livelihood. Ours is an agrarian economy. Though the share of agriculture has fallen from a peak of more than 70 percent to the current levels still it is significantly higher than what is there in developed countries (<5 %).

Rural India has faced many problems in the past and till today problems in rural India have just multiplied. Poverty, unemployment, low health and sanitation levels, poor infrastructure, etc are just some of the problems that rural areas in India face. The government has never given rural India its share/position that it deserves. Till today the rural and urban income inequalities are quite high. According to the figures of 2004-05 the rural per capita income was Rs. 16,237 an urban per capita income was Rs. 44,223, which is a around 3 times the rural income. This is despite the fact that majority of Indian population lives in the rural areas.

Lack of employment opportunities leads to unemployment. There is chronic disguised unemployment in the agrarian sector. Rural areas don’t have proper roads, buildings, water facilities. Till today ladies in Rajasthan have to walk miles just to fetch drinking water. There are no colleges for higher education. Though primary schools are there in almost every village now and enrolment ratio is also high but the quality of education provided is not of a good standard. The ambitious project to open Industrial Training Institutes in rural areas to promote self employment has not garnered the desired result again due to the lack of proper infrastructure.

Health and Sanitation Problem

Since independence India has worked tremendously towards improving the basic parameters of life like life expectancy rate, infant mortality rate, literacy, number of doctors per thousand of population. The government has tried or at least made an effort to penetrate deeper and deeper so that basic health facilities can be provided to the people. The life expectancy of India has climbed from mere 42 in 1960’s to 64.1 in 2009 according to the WHO report. Also the infant mortality rate has fallen from 160 to 50 during the same time period. This is a signal of the reforms and effort taken by the government on the medical front.

The above stated figures clearly tell the reforms that have taken place but there is another side of the coin. Statistics say that more than 75 % of the health infrastructure, medical man power and other resources are concentrated in urban areas where mere 30 % of the population lives. Rural population is always in a fight with contagious and water borne diseases like diarrhoea, cholera, typhoid, malaria, dengue, and various diseases related to child birth. Also there has been a rise in less common diseases like cancer and AIDS/HIV mainly due to lack of education and awareness among the rural population.

The rural population live and work in the most hazardous conditions, have unsafe and unhygienic birth places, unsanitary and degraded environment. The majority of rural population are farmers or daily labourers, small artisans, etc. The article aims to review the steps taken to improve health and sanitation management in India.

The major problem in rural India is that majority of the population is illiterate and there are a lot of tribal groups who believe that they health ailments are caused by spirits. Till today the practice of taking help of magicians and religious practise is prevalent in some rural sections. Malnutrition is also one of the major problems that rural India faces. More than 70 % of the rural children are malnourished because of hunger. Early marriage of women, frequent pregnancies and miscarriages deteriorate the health of women.

Infrastructure in rural areas

There is a severe lack of qualified doctors practising in rural India. Majority of the doctors don’t have proper training. There are about 7,00,000 doctors in India presently and almost 80 % of them practice in the urban areas. There are just 10 beds per 1,00,000 population in rural areas as compared to 180 in urban areas.

Rural infrastructure basically comprises of a 3 tier structure :

The first is the sub – centre and it is the first point of contact between the primary health care and the community. Each sub – centre is manned by one auxiliary nurse midwife and one multipurpose male worker. A lady health worker is in charge of 6 sub centres. Each of these centres is provided by basic drugs and provide services in relation to child birth, family welfare, nutrition, etc. There are 1,45,272 sub centres in India as on March 2007.

Next come the primary health centres (PHCs) which is a point of contact between the medical office and the local population. A PHC acts as a referral to 6 sub centres and is manned by the medical officer and 14 para medical staff. There are around 24,000 PHCs in India as per data of September 2005.

Then there is Community Health Centres which are maintained by State Governments. CHCs are equipped with 4 medical specialists and 21 para medical staff. It acts as a referral centre for 4 PHCs and are supposed to be equipped with latest medical equipment. There are around 3,500 CHCs in India which is almost 50 % less than what is required.

Problem with rural infrastructure

Though the government’s plan for rural infrastructure is very fine and if implemented properly then this can bring tremendous improvement in health and sanitation conditions in rural areas, but in reality most of the plans remain on paper. Implementation is a big issue. The major problems with rural infrastructure which is a hindrance to good health and sanitation conditions in these areas are :-

1. Lack of Equipment – Rural health infrastructure is one of the poorest in India. Sub centres, PHCs and CHCs all lack basic infrastructure. So much so that in some of the backwards villages there are no beds and water facilities. These so called hospitals are of no good to the people.

2. Lack of personnel – India at present have just 6 doctors per 10,000 of population which is one of the lowest amongst the developing countries. The proportion in rural areas is even worse because generally qualified doctors don’t prefer to work in rural areas due to low paying capacity of people in rural areas. Indian Government has never been able to attract skilled doctors due to lack of infrastructure. This is a serious issue. There is also a lack of male para medical staff. To counter this problem the government is thinking to come out with a regulation that all the doctors at least need to work for 2 years in a rural area.

3. Absenteeism – Almost 40% of the rural medical staff remains absent on a daily basis. There is no regulation to check absenteeism. Doctors on high ranks operate private clinics and remain absent from their government jobs. This ensures double income for them.

4. Lack of information – Rural population is generally deprived of information on chronic diseases and when they realize about these diseases it is already too late. Population explosion for example is a serious problem in rural areas due to lack of information on family planning. Likewise due to non protective sex habits rural population suffers from STDs like AIDS.

5. Lack of government initiative – The government has launched many schemes from time to time but implementation of these schemes is a major issue. No check is there to ensure that the scheme is being properly implemented or not. Corruption is a serious deterrent.

6. Lack of private sector participation – There is no incentive for the private sector to step in the rural health care market. The government never thought of this route probably thinking that the private sector will come to its exploitive activities and the motto of welfare of population will be defeated. In thinking this the government didn’t take into account the inefficiencies and red tapism that is eating up the mission to improve rural health and sanitation problems.

7. Lack of public toilets – People in rural areas are generally poor and can’t afford to have well built toilets in their homes. So most of the rural population goes to a nearby field or a barren land where they can defecate. This is a serious health hazard because defecating openly can give rise to many diseases. There is no provision for public toilets in most of the Indian villages and the villages that have this facility have toilets which are so unhygienic making them unfit for use.

An Assessment of Government Initiatives

Indian government has taken a lot of initiatives since independence to tackle the problem to dwindling health and sanitation problem in rural areas. Times to time many schemes were introduced. These schemes no doubt have improved the plight of rural population but the change isn’t what the visionary leaders wanted or what they visualized. Below is provided a brief analysis of various schemes that were launched by the government :-

1. Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Programme

Drinking water supply and sanitation are state subjects and are backed by central government. Under this scheme the government provides funding for installing hand pumps and piped water supply. India has one of the largest rural drinking water supply networks in the world. Today almost 98% of the population has access to portable drinking water which is a big achievement. However, sanitation continues to be an issue with just over 25 % of population having access to basic sanitation. Total Sanitation Campaign was launched by the government in order to address this problem. TSC focuses on family sanitation and hygiene. It also focuses on school sanitation. India has been declared free of some water borne diseases by the WHO. This is a big achievement as the government has been taking action since early 1980s to eradicate these diseases.

Sanitation is a big issue. The practice of defecating in open is a grave health hazard. However people don’t have any choice as they don’t have access to proper toilets and technology. People in rural areas have to walk a long distance just to find a place to defecate. Around 65% of the Indian population still defecate in public. The programme followed an approach to provide free of cost, construction of toilets for SCs, STs and landless labourers. Later on the sanitation problem was shifted to another scheme called the total sanitation scheme.

On the whole Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Programme has been a very successful program in terms of implementation of plans. However, its success is only on the account of portable water supply. In case of sanitation this scheme didn’t do much and thus another scheme was launched to counter sanitation problems.

2. National Rural Health Mission (NHRM)

NHRM was launched in April 2005. NHRM provides support to states for strengthening health care system in rural areas through provision of physical infrastructure, human resources, equipment, and emergency transport, drugs, etc. NHRM covers all health sectors but excludes cancer, HIV/AIDS & mental health. NHRM besides providing support for infrastructure development also provides a community worker called ASHA in every village.

There are around 8 lakh ASHAs working presently. Also NHRM has appointed around 12,000 doctors, 30,000 doctors & 15,000 paramedic staff. The state is held responsible for filling up the vacancies.

NHRM is the main funding body for rural health infrastructure. It gives united funds to all government facilities. Rs. 20 lakhs is provided to each District Hospital and CHC for up gradation of facilities.

NHRM is the pioneer in cause of rural health and sanitation. Though still a lot of work is to be done but this scheme has taken the whole government initiative to an entirely new level. Discussed below are the achievements of this scheme:-

ACHIEVEMENTS OF NHRM

· Since its inception in 2005 NHRM has hired more than 8 lakh personnel which includes doctors, nurses, ASHAs and other personnel.

· Under NHRM more than 10,000 sub centres, PHCs and CHCs are being constructed and renovated.

· NHRM has been constantly working to provide medical facilities like ambulances in rural areas.

· Under NHRM almost every village in India have a VILLAGE HEALTH & SANITATION COMMITTEE.

· Around 5% of the PHCs and sub centres are operating 24x7 which is an achievement in itself.

· NHRM has given impetus to the state & central government. It has forced the governments to shell out more for rural health ad sanitation. Due to NHRM the percent expenditure of GDP on health has increased from 1.19% in 2004-05 to 1.53% in 2009-10.

· There has been a significant increase in the budget allocation to NHRM. In 2005 a total of Rs. 6,500 crores was allocated to the scheme which has risen to more than Rs. 30,000 crores in 2010-11. This clearly speaks of the achievements of NHRM. On an average more than 90% of the fund allocations are used.

· There has been a significant decline in the infant mortality rate in rural areas since the inception of NHRM vis-a-vis the urban areas. The rural IMR improved from 58 in 2005 to 53 in 2008.

· There has been a decline in the maternal mortality rate.

· Total fertility rate has reduced from 2.9 in 2005 to 2.6 in 2008. This is due to the family planning initiatives taken under NHRM.

· There has been around 50 % reduction in deaths related to malaria and dengue.

· Toilets are being built in rural areas. Government is giving grants to village panchayats to install submersibles in these villages to ensure proper water supply.

Apart from the achievements mentioned above NHRM has achieved most of its targets on or before time. The major threat to this scheme is the acute shortage of personnel and lack of awareness amongst the people. Besides corruption at local level is also a problem.

Conclusion

Different government schemes and a sincere effort by the government to uplift the rural section has definitely reaped results. Success has been enormous but still a long way is there to go. Non willingness of doctors to work in rural areas, corruption and neglect are still the problems that rural India faces which needs to be tackled.