Riders Up!

2026 Derby Selection

2026-05-01T09:26:07.076-07:00

Welcome back to Riders Up! The 152nd Run for the Roses and my 28th year stepping into a puzzle that has humbled even the sharpest racing minds. Every so often, it gives something back. Last year was one of those moments. Sovereignty delivered, and my top seven selections all finished in the top eight, with eight in the top ten. That’s the kind of result you appreciate more than you explain. Preparation meets providence.

This tradition has evolved. What started as handicapping has become an annual personal checkpoint. A moment to reflect on what actually matters. God remains at the center, guiding both the seen and unseen. The Derby is the backdrop, but the real story is everything that has unfolded between last May and now. So before the gates open beneath the Twin Spires, I pause, give thanks, and get ready to chase greatness once again.

This Derby Day also marks a personal milestone, two years since Denise and I had our first date. We don’t miss a month, so yes, that makes this our 24-monthaversary. Not a bad return on a Bumble swipe, especially with God writing the script.

Quick birthday shoutouts to my brother Jason's better half, Jess, likely wearing the best Derby hat in the room. Also a belated 50th to my sister Tracy's husband, another Jeff, who is most likely lining up an eagle putt as we speak.

Wow! What a year. Denise and I were married on July 7th beneath the grandeur of San Francisco City Hall. Just the two of us, joined by our Pastor Greg Hendricks—fresh off him being named Chicago Bears Chaplain and certainly playing a role with their incredible turnaround—standing before God and stepping into covenant. No guest list politics. No seating charts. No plus ones. Just us, God, and a commitment that carries a bit more weight than a Pick 6 ticket.

We celebrated our wedding evening in Yountville at The French Laundry, seated outside on a perfect Napa night just a few doors from where we had our first date. Denise had been waiting her entire life to go, which in hindsight made for a fairytale Yountville dinner upgrade story for me, more on that another time. Fortunately, Thomas Keller delivered. Course after course arrived like a masterclass, and somewhere along the way conversation gave way to eye contact and the occasional “this is ridiculous.” The kind of meal that quietly recalibrates your understanding of food, where you stop pretending you know what you’re tasting and simply accept that you’ve been doing it wrong for decades. Reservations harder to secure than Derby Mansion tickets or an Augusta membership, and worth every ounce of anticipation. Best meal of our lives. Unquestionably.

Apparently, I am destined to be the other Jeff. First to Bezos during my Amazon years, and now to Italian weddings. Because what followed was not a reception. It was an Umbrian takeover.

From September 1st through the 3rd, we gathered 77 of our closest friends and family, people we love and are doing life with, at Villa Valentini Bonaparte in Umbria. Seventy-seven. We were married on 7/7. Denise was born in 1977. My mom was 77. At some point you stop calling that coincidence and realize God might be making a point. Seven is completion. Seventy-seven is completion multiplied. When He speaks in patterns, you listen.

For three days, we stepped outside of time. Laughter echoed off ancient Italian stone walls, worship carried deep into the Umbrian nights, and every moment somehow felt both fleeting and eternal. We honored Denise’s father, Mr. Gitsham, whose presence was felt in every prayer and every embrace, a reminder that love does not leave when someone does. We honored my parents, who could not be there but were never absent in spirit. And then we danced under the stars. Volare to Purple Rain. Italy to Minnesota. Some moments you remember. Others you measure your life against. This was one of those.

And then came Reschio. Not just a hotel, but a place that feels like stepping backward in time while somehow living ahead of it. A thousand-year-old castle restored with obsessive precision. Rolling Umbrian hills. Silence that actually quiets you. Watching Denise on horseback, completely at ease, like time had folded in on itself and returned her to something familiar. Even the espresso arrives with purpose. It wasn’t just a honeymoon destination. It was the perfect place to begin our marriage.

Denise continues to step fully into her calling. Her voice is expanding beyond her NewsNation TV responsibilities into something deeper. She speaks truth. Not right versus left. Right versus wrong. Anchored in God and delivered with conviction that doesn’t require volume. She doesn’t chase platforms. Platforms find her. And when they do, truth follows.

Elle, James, Denise, and I cover ground at a pace that suggests United, Southwest, or Delta should be fighting for sponsorship rights. More travel ahead this summer with the kids, including a World Cup match that will test both our voices and our composure. Time moves fast. Faster than you think. I’m cognizant to be fully present for it, because one day these trips become memories and those memories are what matter most.

James is now at Full Sail University and fully in his element. Deep into IT and cybersecurity, and apparently hardware too, since buying a computer was too simple. So he built one this week. Tottenham fandom remains intact, refining both his character and his patience. Watching them lift a European trophy while now flirting with relegation suggests miracles are still in play. His dry humor is elite and almost always perfectly timed, usually at my expense and well deserved.

Elle is on a tear. The kind where you stop giving advice and just try to keep up. College visits, essays, SATs, and lists that multiply faster than my betting tickets on Derby Day. She spent time in New York at Vogue’s Fashion Business program and is about to launch her own line like it’s a foregone conclusion. Somewhere between prom, passing her driver’s test, and confidently taking the keys, she has stepped fully into her independence. I am proud. I am impressed. And I am mostly trying to keep up while God keeps opening doors in front of her.

This year has carried both joy and weight. My mom has been battling Alzheimer’s and dementia for nearly nine years and recently suffered a heart attack. She is now in hospice care, and still making us laugh in ways only she can. Every smile feels like a gift. I owe so much to my sister and brother for their selfless commitment to caring for her and supporting my dad. They have been extraordinary.

My dad continues to inspire in his own way. Fully committed to my mom, he has taken control of his health, losing 30 pounds with a goal to lose ten more all to get back to the fairways. His discipline has been impressive. Denise deserves some credit there. She has a way of elevating those around her. Our prayers remain constant for both of my parents.

Our dog Jack, at 13, underwent brain surgery last June. By the grace of God and an incredible team at UC Davis, Jack is now 14 and you would never know it. A reminder that God is in the details, especially the ones we never would have chosen.

In December, we closed a chapter with our DC apartment and in July stepped into a new one with our new home, Grazia Tra Vigne "Grace among the vines." Located near Napa and minutes from where Denise grew up, this is not just a home. It is a gathering place. A place to build community. To create space where people encounter God and leave different than they arrived.

Before we moved in, the story had already begun. We circled the property in prayer, nearly every day, inspired by Mark Batterson’s Circle Maker, believing boldly for something that, at the time, did not feel guaranteed. And then God moved.

We wasted no time putting it to use. Denise’s mom’s 86th birthday brought together over 50 people, ages one to one hundred and one. Over New Year’s, we opened our doors again. Celebration first, then a prophetic class led by our dear friend Lindsey Reiman. Because if you are going to start a year, you might as well start it listening.

U.S. Congressman Doug LaMalfa and his wife Jill joined us on New Year's Day eating Denise's chili and having Jack become Doug's new best friend. Five short days later, Doug passed after receiving a heaven-sent prophetic word in our home. A sobering reminder of how quickly life moves. Weeks later, Denise delivered a deeply moving eulogy, grace-filled and anchored in truth. One of those moments you do not just hear. You carry with you.

What didn’t always make sense then is becoming clear to me now. Every step throughout my life has been preparation. Every role, every season, every unexpected turn. That preparation has led to something new professionally for me.

Kingdom Bitcoin

Not a company. A calling. A movement to restore honest money language to the Church and to Christian leaders who know something is broken but cannot yet fully articulate it. God has gifted me the ability to think in long arcs. Four hundred year cycles. Systems that shape nations, families, and stewardship itself. And I believe bitcoin represents a return to something foundational. Bitcoin is not a rebellion. It is a repentance as God cares about honest weights and measures.

If Benjamin Franklin were alive today, he might revise the list to death, taxes, and now money printing. Kingdom Bitcoin's mission is simple. Speak plainly about money as a moral system. Teach bitcoin without hype. This movement is about generational stewardship. Protecting what matters. Translating complexity into Kingdom language. Building even when misunderstood. More coming soon.

Now, back to the puzzle. Life reminds us what matters. The Derby reminds us how little we control.

Twenty horses. A mile and a quarter. Two minutes that separate preparation from regret. This is where opinions get tested and conviction gets exposed.

Last year, the race unfolded exactly as I prophesized. Pace. Positioning. Patience. This year is less forgiving. A more open field, many moving parts, and just enough uncertainty to punish lazy assumptions.

This group doesn’t hand you an answer. It forces you to earn it. Morning Line favorite Renegade draws the rail, where trips are either surgical or suffocating. The Puma brings consistency without the need for attention. Chief Wallabee carries upside with unanswered questions. Emerging Market sits in that dangerous in-between, lightly raced and facing the curse of Leonatus (1883). Further Ado shows up off a number you can’t ignore. And sitting just off center stage is Commandment, not loud, not hidden, but checking boxes in all the right places.

No shortcuts here. Let’s break it down.

⚡ PACE SCENARIO

This Derby starts with pressure. Not reckless, but undeniable. From the outside, Six Speed has no choice it’s go or get hung wide into next week. That decision alone injects pace before they even hit the first turn. Inside, Litmus Test, Potente, and So Happy won’t concede position early. They do their best running forward, and they’ll commit to it.

The result is a lively opening. Expect a :22 and change first quarter, with the half landing around :46 flat. Quick enough to matter. Not fast enough to collapse.

That’s where the modern Derby reveals itself. Since the points system took hold in 2013, these races rarely melt down. Instead, they wear down. The leaders don’t stop. They soften just enough to invite the right horses into the race.

Which puts the focus squarely on the tactical runners. ~~The Puma~~, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Further Ado and Commandment all project to land in that ideal window, fourth through eighth early. Close enough to strike, far enough to avoid the early stress. Not chasing. Tracking. Waiting.

Behind them, the closers begin their calculus. Renegade, saving ground on the rail, will need timing and courage. Golden Tempo will be hoping for just a touch more heat, to bring their late runs into play.

The Derby isn’t won on the front anymore. And almost never from the clouds. It’s won in that narrow band where patience meets position. If this race unfolds the way it projects, the pace won’t give anything away. It will simply ask the right question at the right moment.

It won’t hand the race to anyone. It will expose who’s built for it.

HANDICAPPING THE DERBY

❌ SCRATCHED (3 Horses): (5) Right to Party (13) Silent Tactic, (20) Fulleffort Derby Morning Scratch (9 )The Puma

❌ TOSS (8 Horses): There are always horses you eliminate quickly. Not because they lack ability, but because this race demands something very specific—and not everyone is built for it.

(2) Albus, (3) Intrepido, (4 ) Litmus Test, (11) Incredibolt, (17) Six Speed, (21) Great White, (22) Ocelli, (23) Robusta

Some are too slow on figures. Others are too dependent on a pace scenario that doesn’t project. A few are simply being asked questions they haven’t shown they can answer. The Derby is not the place to hope for a breakthrough. It’s where exposed limitations get magnified.

⚖️ IN THE MIX – OFF MY TICKETS (3 Horses): These are the fringe players. Talented enough to matter. Not trustworthy enough to lean on.

(7) Danon Bourbon, (10) Wonder Dean, (16) Pavlovian

Danon Bourbon is undefeated, but untested at this level. Wonder Dean brings international intrigue and stamina, but class translation remains a question. Pavlovian now lands here—capable, but not convincing enough against this depth. These are the types that can hit underneath, inflate exotics, and make you wish you used them, just not on top.

🏆CONTENDERS (9 Horses)

(1) Renegade: The first real decision point. Talent is obvious, and the Into Mischief–Curlin pedigree gives him both speed and stamina. But the rail is no gift. He either saves every inch and finds a seam… or spends the race boxed and searching. Capable, but entirely trip-dependent.

(6) Commandment: Doesn’t force you to reach. Four wins from five starts, tactical speed, and proven at Churchill Downs. Into Mischief on top, Orb underneath ties him directly to the modern Derby blueprint. Doesn’t need chaos. Just needs the race to unfold the way it typically does.

(8) So Happy: Talent is real and the forward style fits, but he’ll be part of the early equation whether he wants to be or not. The question is whether he can carry that speed the full ten furlongs. Dangerous if he relaxes. Vulnerable if he doesn’t.

(9) The Puma SCRATCHED: The most honest horse in the field. No flash, no noise, just consistent efforts against legitimate competition. Pedigree suggests the distance is well within range, and his versatility gives him options. In a race full of variables, he’s a steady constant.

(12) Chief Wallabee: This is where upside enters the picture. Lightly raced, improving, and adding blinkers with intent. Constitution pedigree leans stamina, and his running style fits the winning zone. Timing is everything. Move too early and he flattens. Move at the right moment and he’s a problem.

(14) Potente: Speed and raw ability put him here. Lightly raced, but talented enough to matter. Likely part of the early pace, which creates both opportunity and risk. If he clears and settles, he’s dangerous. If not, he’s part of the pressure that sets the race up for others.

(15) Emerging Market: The quiet climber. Undefeated, lightly raced, and still improving. Up against the curse of Leonatus. 1883 was last time a horse with only 2 career starts won Derby. Pedigree supports the distance, and his style keeps him clear of early trouble. Doesn’t need to be best early, just needs to stay relevant long enough for his upside to matter late.

(18) Further Ado: Brings the flash. Fastest last-out figure in the field. The kind that forces a decision: believe it or fade it. Talent is real, but from a wide draw in a chaotic race, he has to prove that number travels.

(19) Golden Tempo: The deeper runner with stamina and the right profile if things soften late. Not the most likely winner, but exactly the type who picks up the pieces when others begin to weaken.

RIDERS UP!
2026 DERBY SELECTION

COMMANDMENT (6)

Last year it was Sovereignty. The race unfolded exactly as it had been suggesting all week with pace, positioning, patience. It felt less like handicapping and more like alignment. Scripture says, “The horse is made ready for the day of battle, but victory belongs to the Lord." Twenty showed up prepared. One left crowned. And somehow, it felt inevitable.

This year, the noise is back. New names, new narratives, new ways to overthink what is often far simpler than we allow. But beneath it all, the same truth holds. This race rewards order, not chaos. Discipline, not desperation.

In a field with Renegades and rising markets, the answer isn’t rebellion or noise. It’s order. It’s alignment. It’s (6) Commandment. Not just a name. A signal. In Scripture, commandments are not suggestions. They are order. They are alignment. And in a race defined by pressure and timing, that matters. He checks every box. Tactical speed. Proven pattern. A pedigree that fits the modern Derby blueprint, Into Mischief over Orb, Riders Up 2013 selection that won this race, tying him back to the foundation of this era. Trained by Brad Cox, surrounded by intention, not noise.

He doesn’t need chaos. He needs the race to unfold. And when things unfold the way they are supposed to, you don’t force it. You recognize it. That’s the edge.

Because the Derby isn’t won by the loudest horse. It’s won by the one still standing when the questions get hard in the final furlong. When pace softens. When positioning matters. When everything else fades.

Last year, Sovereignty set the tone. This year, Commandment answers the call.

Commandment and his mom Sippican Harbor

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.

2025 Derby Recap - Sovereignty wins

2025-05-04T07:55:00.000-07:00

Riders Up! Strikes Gold with Sovereignty!

What a wild ride in 2:02.31! The 151st Kentucky Derby crowned Sovereignty, the divine longshot and Riders Up’s headline pick, as the ruler of Churchill Downs. With Junior Alvarado channeling his inner prophet, the pace collapsed just as scripted (:46.1 at the half), and Sovereignty stormed from 17th to the lead like he was on a mission from God. By the top of the stretch, it was all over but the shouting, as he pulled away by 1 ½ lengths from favored Journalism.

Riders Up selections delivered the holy trinity of payouts: WPS on both Sovereignty and Journalism, plus the Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta. And had we only followed our own Saturday gospel on Owen Almighty loving the slop? The Super High-Five would’ve been ours too. Divine inspiration, or just data-driven destiny? Either way, outstanding effort after some recent struggles.

Riders Up! Selections

2025 Derby Selection

2025-05-02T09:26:00.000-07:00

The 151st Kentucky Derby is upon us, and with it, the 27th installment of Riders Up!, a tradition that began 30 years ago with a youthful hunch on Thunder Gulch (1995) and a collegial weekend with my closest Notre Dame friends. That day we went from the infield (outhouse) to the paddock (penthouse), grunge-clad in Doc Martens, shorts, and flannels, somehow mistaken for Pearl Jam while rubbing shoulders with Bo Derek. That fever dream sparked a yearly ritual now steeped in film study, form cycles, and writing about the past year in my life. Thankfully, my wardrobe has upgraded, hat tip to Brunello Cucinelli. It’s been over two decades since I stood beneath the Twin Spires on Derby weekend, a streak that must end soon with a dear friends, DRF in one hand, and a view from the Woodford Reserve Paddock Club. So cue “My Old Kentucky Home,” raise a glass, and let’s chase greatness once more.

Last June, James, Elle, and I went full Eat, Pray, Parent across Italy, soaking up ancient history in Rome and spending a humbling day at the Vatican, where we narrowly missed seeing Pope Francis (God bless him). Here's to the conclave ushering in white smoke and a worthy shepherd. From there, we zipped along the Amalfi Coast like Bond villains on a private boat, and galivanting through Florence on a perfectly unstructured day built around gelato, laughs, and just enough shopping to test the luggage zippers. Elle critiqued street fashion with Vogue-worthy precision, while James delivered dry one-liners sharper than a Roman gladiator’s sword. Between dodging Vespas and debating whether Michelangelo or cacio e pepe is Italy’s greatest gift to the world, we made memories as timeless as the cobblestones beneath our feet.

James is 18, four weeks from donning cap and gown, and ready to trade high school halls for hacking firewalls at Full Sail University, where he’ll study Information Technology and Cybersecurity. Still chanting COYS with conviction (despite Spurs’ lifelong vow to test his faith), I’m hoping he takes Tottenham's motto “To Dare is to Do” seriously, especially the do part. His dry wit keeps us all in stitches, and in June we chased his football passion to Germany for Euro 2024, catching England vs. Denmark and Netherlands vs. France. If cyber threats fear him even half as much as he fears missing a Legendary Pokémon, I’d say the internet is in very safe hands.

Elle, 15 going on CEO, is a high school sophomore already deep in the college tour circuit withThanksgiving weekend saw us roaming UCLA, USC, and Pepperdine campuses, though the final runway is still TBD. Her discipline and drive paid off with a golden ticket to New York this summer for Vogue’s Fashion Business School, where she’ll study the creative and commercial forces behind haute couture. In July, we took a father-daughter getaway to London, only confirmed what I already knew: her eye for style is razor sharp. She’s clearly destined to elevate the family’s fashion standards to entirely new runway-ready and business-savvy heights.

Since leaving AWS and then Blockdaemon in 2023, I’ve been semi-retired, thank you bitcoin, and exploring that elusive sweet spot between sabbatical and strategic drift. I traded boardrooms for bodywork, swapped KPIs for Korean skincare, and dove headfirst into self-care including recently returning from a rejuvenation in Seoul that had me feeling like Benjamin Button. I also spent a transformative week at the Hoffman Institute, which essentially upgraded my spiritual WiFi from dial-up to fiber. Amid all that inner rewiring, I’ve kept my heart close to home, continually praying for my parents’ health, who gave me every opportunity to succeed. Love you, Mom and Dad.

These days, my compass points firmly toward obedience tuning into what God has planned for me both personally and professionally. I’m entertaining new opportunities, but I’ve come to learn that growth doesn’t always arrive in pitch decks or job offers; sometimes it whispers through stillness, surrender, and sacred timing. And that quiet obedience? It led me to the once-in-many-lifetimes woman.

Exactly one year ago today, I was putting the finishing touches on my 26th Riders Up! likely sleep deprived and over-confident in my selection unaware that the real headline that day wouldn’t be about horses, but a first date. That night, I met Denise, and May 2nd, 2024, changed my life forever. Due to us both traveling it took 96 days from swiping right on Bumble (January 28) to finally meet in Yountville (longer than most congressional bills take to die in committee), but worth every moment. I’ll let her tell the full story, it’s better with her delivery. I’ll never forget her outfit, shoes, the sparkle in her eyes, the hours of conversation, and the fact that we said grace before the meal. God was there at the start, and He’s been at the center ever since.

Denise is the most beautiful woman I’ve ever met, inside and out. She has the largest heart of any human, authentic, brilliant, rooted in truth, God-loving, and the only person I know who can light up a NewsNation segment and write a book that both sides of the aisle should read Politics for People Who Hate Politics . Since that first date, we’ve been inseparable. Our second date? Vegas. Delilah. She wasn’t convinced I could actually get her and her friends a table to celebrate her birthday as they tried unsuccessfully. Thankfully she invited me to meet her and possibly call my bluff while I confidently delivered a Royal Flush.

Since then, we’ve hopscotched the globe, racking up memories from Minnesota to D.C. onto Nashville, Austin to Montana, with stops in Aspen, San Diego, Dallas, Houston, Chicago, West Palm, Miami, Charleston, and Norfolk—plus international chapters in London, Taipei, and Seoul. And then there was our dreamy escape to the Grand-Hôtel du Cap-Ferrat, followed by what I humbly declare the finest hotel on Earth: Passalacqua on Lake Como, where even the Negronis felt like a love letter. My love for her has only grown stronger with every prayer, every mile, every laugh. God works mysteriously on His time and we came into one another's lives at the right moment. An example of how we get one another, around 2am on Election Night, sitting in the NewsNation green room, after buying George Will a cheeseburger and chatted all things Minnesota with Governor Pawlenty, we decided then and there to submit an application on an apartment in our nation's capital. Her TV career and PR firm is blooming like the April cherry blossoms, and with a crypto-friendly administration (finally), it makes perfect sense - oh BTW yes Denise and I "drop(ped) it like it's hot" hanging with Snoop at The Crypto Ball during the inauguration.

A few weeks later, on our 9th monthaversary, I proposed at the Caribou Club in Aspen and she said yes. As if God wanted to leave no doubt He was in on it, there was a Bumble pop-up shop next door. Divine sense of humor: confirmed. Today marks one year since I first laid eyes on the woman who made me believe in forever, and I can’t wait to hold her hand for, God willing, the next six decades (and beyond). Once this Derby selection is locked in, it’s back to wedding planning as we prepare to celebrate with our closest friends and family this September in Umbria, Italy. And while I’ve had my share of winning picks over the years... Denise will forever be my greatest selection.

The 151st Kentucky Derby isn’t just fast horses and mint juleps, it’s layered drama at full gallop. Bob Baffert returns from exile with Citizen Bull, the former 2-year-old champ now stuck on the rail and chasing redemption from the dreaded one-hole.

Atop the talent board is favorite Journalism, the unbeaten Curlin colt with push-button gears and big-horse energy. If the speed melts down, he may turn this into a headline rout. Sovereignty brings late firepower, Godolphin polish, and a name fit for a sermon, divine order in a chaotic stampede. And don’t sleep on Sandman, the surging gray who could cue Metallica as he "enters" the stretch. Ten years after American Pharoah’s historic run, Derby 151 feels primed for another unforgettable chapter.

Pace Scenario

The 2025 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be a fast-paced contest, with several frontrunners poised to set a brisk early tempo. Notable speed horses include Citizen Bull, Neoequos, East Avenue, and Owen Almighty. All of whom like to be forwardly placed. Based on past races and current form, the opening quarter could approach 22.5 seconds, with the half-mile potentially just under 46 seconds. This is fast, but not quite historically blazing. For context, some of the swiftest early Derby paces came in 2001 (22.25 / 44.86), 1981 (22.2 / 45.2), and 2013 (22.57 / 45.33), the latter of which was notably the first year under the current points-based qualification system that de-emphasizes sprint races and tends to filter out pure speed horses.

Since the advent of the Derby points system in 2013, Derby paces have generally moderated compared to the wild early splits seen in the 1990s and early 2000s, when horses like Songandaprayer or Spanish Chestnut scorched the opening half before folding. Still, a sub 46 half-mile would be among the fastest of the points-era, and could test the resolve of early leaders.

Such fractions would favor stalkers and closers. Horses like Journalism with tactical speed and a push-button kick are well positioned to pounce. Sandman and Sovereignty, both proven stretch runners with stamina-friendly pedigrees, loom large if the pace melts down late. It's all about navigating traffic!

Handicapping the Derby

Derby Winner Profile: Post 2013 Point System Era (2013-2024)

Riders Up! has been flailing at the finish line since the Derby Point System trotted onto the scene in 2013. In 12 years, I’ve managed just 1 Win (Orb), 1 Place (Tiz the Law), and a modest 4 Shows. So this year it's all about the data.

Since 2013, a clear Derby Winner Profile has emerged:

Running Style: Tactical stalkers and mid-pack closers dominate. Authentic (2020) is the lone wire-to-wire winner in anomaly COVID year when Derby was in September.
Final Prep: Every winner finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep.
Final Fractions: The “Final Fractions Double Qualifier” (FFDQ) theory lives on with last 3/8 < 38.00 sec and last 1/8 < 13.00 sec signals stamina and finishing power.
Speed Figures: Winners regularly post a Beyer >95 and TimeformUS late pace >100.
Pedigree: Names like Curlin, Tapit, Into Mischief, and Empire Maker show up again and again. Dosage Index under 4.00 is the sweet spot.
Strikes System: Most winners have 0–2 “strikes” using Jon White’s historical benchmarks.

2025 Derby Selection Sponsor

The Business Bible

Riders Up! 2025 Derby Selection

18 Sovereignty

Sovereignty – Kingdom-Bred, Bitcoin-Backed, and Born for Glory

Born on 2/22/22. Yes meaning twos are wild and providence whispers louder than odds. Sovereignty is more than a name, it’s a statement, In the Bible, sovereignty reflects God’s ultimate rule. Fitting for a colt owned by Godolphin, a place I visited last year while in Dubai. Now, he charges into the first Saturday in May as a third-time starter off a layoff, primed to peak, flashing a 114 Timeform late pace figure, Final Fractions Double Qualifier credentials, and a classic closing style built for 10 furlongs.

His pedigree is inbred to my second favorite horse ever, Seattle Slew, who won the Triple Crown in 1977 which happened to be the year Denise was born while also having ties to my favorite horse of all-time, Secretariat, who won the Triple Crown the year I was born. And somehow it all feels intentional like bitcoin, powerful, inevitable, and decentralized from all chaos. When the gates open, I’m not just betting a horse, I’m backing a higher plan!!

I flirted with the favorite, Journalism, as he’s clearly the class of the field. It felt a little too familiar, like last year’s ill-fated romance with Fierceness. Sandman had his appeal too (cue Metallica), especially on the 20th anniversary of last gray to win, Giacomo’s shocking glory in 2005. But in the end, I’m sticking with my first instinct and you know what they say, trust your gut, especially when it's Kingdom-aligned.

*** SATURDAY UPDATE DUE TO SLOPPY CONDITIONS.

I will continue with my selections, however from a betting perspective there are things to consider. note that I look at Tomlinson ratings and feel this could benefit a few horses while impacting others. I have added a column to my analysis above.

Tomlinson Ratings are pedigree-based scores (0-480) predicting a horse's ability on a specific surface, with higher numbers favoring stronger genetic suitability, especially on wet tracks.

Still like my top 3 Sovereignty, Journalism, Sandman with rain. Track conditions improve chances for Citizen Bull, Final Gambit, Burnham Square, East Avenue while bringing in longer shots that could hit the board Owen Almighty, American Purpose. It could negatively impact Luxor Cafe, Tiztastic, Baeza

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.

2024 Derby Selection

2024-05-03T09:26:00.000-07:00

2024 Kentucky Derby Selection – Derby 150

The 150^th Kentucky Derby marks my 26^th instance pontificating and prognosticating on the fastest two minutes in sports. It’s mind boggling that it has been 20 years since I last traveled to the 502 visiting the venerable Twin Spires on the first Friday and Saturday of May. That needs to change for 2025 (who's in?) especially after the $200MM paddock renovation where My "Old" Kentucky Home would be in the Woodford Reserve Paddock Club and well positioned to hear this forum’s namesake “Riders Up!” ahead of the Derby.

Several life changes have occurred since the prior chapter in this compendium of picks. My mom has courageously battled Dementia/Alzheimer’s for the past 7 years. In October, as a family, we made a difficult decision to move her into Long Term Memory Care. She has received tremendous support while in outstanding physical condition. It has been an adjustment for my dad, now living on his own while visiting her daily – their love for one another sets the example -- Now Dad watch the sugar!! I have made 9 trips back to Minnesota since October to take some of the care burden off my sister, Tracy, and brother, Jason. Both have been true champions throughout supporting my parents. Life is about staying positive while playing the hand dealt.

Special cheers to Tracy who was married on New Year’s Eve to “Jeff S” (as my mom says). Thrilled to welcome Jeff and his daughter, Bri, officially to the family. A natural fit with The Hasselmans as they both golf – quite well too. Speaking of golf, my game has been in shambles since my good friend, Sean Mangan, placed an Ian Baker Finch hex during our first Notre Dame Boys Trip in Myrtle Beach. Much more to that story. We’ve had 21 trips dating back to 1997after an idea proposed by Kentucky’s own Craig Allen. Gents, who’s planning 22, Not It. Another callout to Notre Dame teammate and dear friend John Rushin who's dad, Don, recently died after a tremendous life. I cannot wait for the reality series centered on him now that Curb Your Enthusiasm has wrapped. Many memories including ND Father-Son Golf with the Rushins, Bohmers, and Soderlings (also a thought for Bruce Soderling).

James and Elle continue to grow up way too quickly chasing their dreams. Time is our most precious commodity, and I am trying to soak in as much of it as I can before they are able to vote. They continue to thrive in their own way. James is finishing his Junior year in high school while Elle is completing her Freshman campaign. Last summer we journeyed to Washington DC to strengthen their understanding of our great country’s history. Fortunate to also take individual trips with both. James and I headed to LA to watch Messi play and dine on fabulous food, two of his passions. Elle and I made a memorable voyage to NYC where she was able to take in The Met, The Plaza, The Rock, and also partake in sublime cuisine. This summer we are spending time in Rome (on to Ancient History with both kids), Germany (Euro 2024 Soccer Championships with James), and London (checking in on the Princess of Wales with Elle).

In June and after 6.5 years at “a tiny book company” as the “other Jeff” I left AWS and my role as Global Head of Web3 to become President at Blockdaemon, a venture-backed blockchain infrastructure company. After 5 months decided to leave to focus on my parents, spend more time with my kids, and return my professional attention to helping blockchain BUIDLers. Today, I am happily advising and investing in blockchain startups on my own while also speaking at crypto conferences. Recently attending Paris Blockchain Week (where I went on a date with Mona Lisa – she was not very talkative and Van Gogh rose from the ashes to do one more portrait) and then Dubai (where the biggest floods in 75 years hit, also hung out at Godolphin Headquarters and Meydan Racecourse prepping for Riders Up!).

The last year has been very good. I thank God for all those in and who have entered my life. Travel continues to be a core tenet. Few more callouts since we last gathered, F1 Vegas Paddock was sensational (Hi Brad Pitt, Michael Phelps, Shaun White, Steve Aoki, Veronika Rajek, and more), U2 at the Sphere was a treat (yes I should have residency in Vegas if not for tax purposes), and 18 at Pine Valley thanks to good friend David Bickford from CoinDesk and alongside another good friend and Web3’s younger Gary Player, Adam Lee. Ok, with 26^th selection of the Kentucky Derby, Riders Up selects…

Race Thoughts

Occasionally the crop of sophomore runners lacks talent. The overall field is certainly off for the 150^th Run for the Roses. There have been only 3 100+ Beyer Speed figures run this year. That said one horse clearly has been the most dominant having 2 of those 3 100+ Beyers, 17 Fierceness (110, 105). Fierceness best is 9 better than 3 Mystik Dan’s 101. Since 1980 only one time has the Derby winner not run a 100 Beyer. 12 of 20 entrants' best Beyer is 91 (yes 91) or lower thus a massive jump for them or the race completely falls apart for many of them to be in the equation.

Unfortunate that Churchill Downs extended Bob Baffert’s suspension another year. Baffert is an all-time trainer, most Derby wins, and would have had a solid runner in Muth (winner of Arkansas Derby) among others to improve the quality of this field. It's like the NFL without Belichick. The California crop is noticeably weaker as the Santa Anita Derby winner, 18 Stronghold, had an appalling 89 speed figure. There are trainers with the same drug infraction, the legal steroid Betamethasone, that received $500 fines and then allowed to race again. Hope to see his horses in 2025.

Soon we will see an invasion of Japanese champions winning more elite American races. 1991 Derby Winner Sunday Silence had softer breeding sales and eventually was purchased and moved to Japan breeding horses. His son, Deep Impact, is building quite a resume and this year is grandsire to 11 Forever Young. Would not surprise me if he won, however trends say otherwise as Forever Young won the UAE Derby at Meydan. UAE Derby runners are 0-19. Last Year Derma Sotogake finished 6^th in the Derby. Placing would be an achievement. Queue Rod Stewart.

A nod to John Velazquez and his 26^th Derby which is in harmony to Riders Up selections. Just so happened to be my college jersey number too.

Race Pace

Determining pace scenarios is critical to identifying prospective top finishers. After post position draw, it is unquestioned that 1 Dornoch will need to fire out of the gate to avoid the squeeze as horses come to the rail to save ground into the first turn. Along with him are 12 Track Phantom (wearing blinkers which tends to make horses run faster) and 8 Just a Touch. After the defection of ~~9 Encino~~, it shuffles favorite 17 Fierceness to 16 hole and out of the 17 hole curse where an anomaly that no horse has won from that post. I see him being 4 wide in 1^st turn just off the pace. I expect 22⁺:, 45⁺: for the times which benefits closers mindful they need to navigate a minefield of horses to have a clean trip heading to the wire.

THE FIELD for the 150th KENTUCKY DERBY

Toss (7 Horses + 1 Scratch + 1 Also Eligible)

PP	Horse	S– W – P – S	$	Style/Beyer	TimeForm	Dosage/Strikes
5	Catalytic	3-1-2-0	$216k	Speed 90	111¹⁴	3.00 1 (2)
9	~~Encino SCRATCH~~	~~4-3-1-0~~	~~$378k~~	~~Mid 94~~	~~114⁶~~	~~2.33 0~~
10	T O Password	2-2-0-0	$163k	Mid --	102²¹	1.00 3 (1,3,7)
13	West Saratoga	10-2-5-1	$460k	Mid 85	110¹⁶	3.00 1 (4)
15	Domestic Product	5-2-1-0	$314k	Mid 87	101²²	3.00 1 (3)
16	Grand Mo the First	6-2-0-4	$215k	Mid 87	109¹⁷	1.22 2 (2,3)
20	Society Man	5-1-1-1	$197k	Closer 87	109¹⁷	3.80 2 (2,8)
21	Epic Ride	5-2-2-1	$253k	Speed 90	116⁵	1.40 3 (1,2,4)
22	Mugatu (AE)	12-1-1-3	$80k	Mid 87	107¹⁹	3.00 0

Factors – Cuts (5 Horses)

PP	Horse	S– W – P – S	$	Style/Beyer	TimeForm	Dosage/Strikes
1	Dornoch	6 -3-2-0	$552k	Speed 91	114⁶	2.50 0
6	Just Steel	11-2-4-1	$725k	Mid 95	118³	4.00 2 (2,3)
12	Track Phantom	7-3-2-1	$405k	Speed 94	112¹³	2.20 1 (4)
14	Endlessly	6-5-0-0	$707k	Mid 91	113⁸	3.60 0
18	Stronghold	6-3-3-0	$827k⁵	Mid 89	113⁸	3.00 0

Contenders (8 Horses)

PP	Horse	S– W – P – S	$	Style/Beyer	TimeForm	Dosage/Strikes
2	Sierra Leone	4-3-1-0	$918k³	Closer 98 (3)	116⁴	2.00 1 (3)
3	Mystik Dan	6-2-1-1	$641k	Mid 101 (2)	113⁸	3.00 0
4	Catching Freedom	5-3-0-1	$877k⁴	Closer 97 (4)	112¹³	5.67 1 (3)
7	Honor Marie	5-2-2-0	$526k	Closer 96	111¹⁴	3.24 1 (3)
8	Just a Touch	3-1-2-0	$282k	Speed 96	120²	3.57 3 (2,4,7)
11	Forever Young	5-5-0-0	$2.1M¹	Mid --	105²⁰	3.00 0
17	Fierceness	5-3-0-1	$1.7M²	Speed 110 (1)	124¹	5.00 1 (4)
19	Resilience	6-2-1-1	$495k	Mid 90	112¹³	3.50 2 (4,6)

2 – Sierra Leone reminds me of a better bred 2010 Riders Up Selection Ice Box that was a deep closer and was able to navigate traffic finishing 2^nd. Third race off a layoff (I love). Can Sierra weave his way through traffic down the stretch as he will be flying?

3 – Mystik Dan a Long Shot special? With 1 of the 3 100 Beyers in the preps. I say why not. Will a a clean trip will be there? It’s the Derby so that is always the question.

4 – Catching Freedom is a deep closer like Sierra Leone. Excellently bred with 2009 Riders Up Selection Pioneerof the Nile who finished second as his Dam’s sire. Certainly improving. Longer layoff similar to 2006 Riders Up Selection Barbaro’s 7 Weeks ahead of his Derby Win.

7 – Honor Marie is 1 of the 2 Wise Guy selections. Improving steadily. Third off a layoff.

8 – Just a Touch is a Brad Cox runner who did not run as a two-year-old so raises foundation questions. His Father Justify did just that in 2018 erasing 136 year Apollo curse. Has been strong and one could argue ran a better race than Sierra Leone in Bluegrass finishing 2^nd.

11 – Forever Young has many curses against it here. That said there is a lot to like and could be that first Japanese Triple Crown champion.

17 – Fierceness Simply the best in the field. That said, has had 2 clunkers in his 5 races. Pletcher only has 1 entrant so all attention here. Third off a layoff. Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion. Last year owner Mike Repole the morning of race had to scratch the prohibitive favorite and what would have been Riders Up Selection Forte. Is there Redemption as he seeks the elusive (to date) Derby?

19 – Resilience is another Wise Guy Selection. Must make a massive jump to win.

2024 Riders Up Selection

17 Fierceness

After starting 5 of 6 Derby winner selections (other was 3rd) then 8 of 15 (with 4 in the money), Riders Up selections has hit a cold streak not finding a winner and only 4 in the money since 2013 winning with Orb - I selected two horses that year as Orb was the post-time favorite (my other selection ran 3rd). No right minded handicapper can simply pick the favorite, right? Interesting as that year was the beginning of the new Derby Points System. Since then 6 of 11 (54%) of favorites have won the Derby with favorite winning 6 races in a row 2013-2018. Since 2019 the post-time favorite has finished 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd. In The Money. There is one horse that is undoubtedly the best in the field, so its all about the KISS principle this year. Keep It Simple Stupid.

Position	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Owner
Win	17 Fierceness	Velazquez	Pletcher	Repole Stable
Place	11 Forever Young	Sakai	Yahagi	Susumu Fujita
Show	8 Just a Touch	Geroux	Cox	Qatar Racing
4^th	2 Sierra Leone	Gafflione	Brown	Magnier, Tabor
5^th Long Shot	3 Mystik Dan	Hernandez	McPeek	4 G Racing
6^th	7 Honor Marie	Curtis	Beckman	Ribble Farms
7^th	4 Catching Freedom	Prat	Cox	Albaugh Family
8^th	19 Resilience	Alvarado	Mott	Emily Bushnell

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.

2023 Derby Selection

2023-05-05T21:20:00.007-07:00

2023 Kentucky Derby Selection

2023 commemorates the 50th Anniversary of the greatest equine ever, Secretariat's Triple Crown. He kicked it off with a record setting 1:59.2 romp in the Kentucky Derby defeating Sham. He would later go on to win the Belmont Stakes by 31 lengths and another record that still stands today. Secretariat is on par with Wayne Gretzky, Michael Jordan (loved the movie Air), Tom Brady, Babe Ruth, Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Serena Williams, Usain Bolt, and Michael Phelps for dominance in sport.

Coincidentally this year marks my 50th circle around the sun and is off to a magical start. My kids, James and Elle, continue to grow up way too fast. Love watching them trailblaze their own path while filled with laughs along the journey. Time is so precious with them as in a few short years James will graduate HS with Elle not far behind. 50 suits me well and excited see what the next 10 years hold for me and my kids. I will certainly enjoy the journey. Time is the most precious asset all of us have, use it wisely and for things you love such as Family, Friends, Passions.

I continue expanding my comfort zone in Web3 industry writing my career story. When I read the Bitcoin White Paper in December 2013 and made my first purchase in February 2014, I knew there was something pulling me towards that world. Working for a "book company" the past 6 years I've relished the autonomy when I see a blank page to be the author, not the reader when I founded and continue buidling our blockchain, crypto, and now Web3 business from scratch. Quite humbling to see it become a significant business for AWS serving 1000s of customers globally. Most people looked at me like I had 9 heads in 2017/2018 and I continue to inform internal naysayers with data while seeing around corners and being the other Jeff at Amazon taking us from Web2 to Web3. It's so fun helping the two girls in a hoodie to the most influential Web3 businesses who are redefining the internet using blockchain technology. Multiple times weekly I am educating the largest banks, media & entertainment, gaming companies and more on their Web3 strategies. I've lived through 8+ crypto winters and the last 12 months certainly qualifies with FTX (Sam Bankman Fraud), Terra Luna, and currently dealing with Gary Gensler the clueless SEC Chair seeking political fame while allowing US innovative talent and companies to move to new locales like Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Dubai, Paris, and many others. Crypto and Web3 is my professional calling and I will always be a BUIDLer and a HODLer. It has afforded me the ability to travel the world seeing cultures and learning every single day. Paris earlier this year was a highlight when we closed the Louvre to the 500 of the most influential people in Web3. Unforgettable to have a lengthy 1:1 with an ageless woman named Mona, riveting how she seemed to be frozen in time. Who knows, maybe there will be a new challenge to bring crypto to billions of people.

Before moving on to the race, I'd like to close with an early Happy Mother's Day to my Mom. She has always been the glue in our family. Funny story, my dad bought her a race horse, Super Count, which sparked a deeper passion for me in horse racing when I was 13/14 years old. Love you Mom! Speaking of my Dad, Next week he hits 80 years old. Quite the run with many more years to go. He has always been my role model. Keep it in the short grass Dad. Happy Birthday.

RACE ANALYSIS

This year's Run for the Roses has seen the difficult side of racing as a rash of deaths at Churchill and other illnesses have crept into this year's rendition. ~~Four~~ Five Horses (Forte, Skinner, Practical Move, Lord Miles, and Continuar) have scratched since the Post Positions were drawn on Monday meaning all 3 Also Eligible are drawn in. Riders Up Selection was going to be PRACTICAL MOVE. This 2 minutes to glory is loaded with viable, highly credentialed candidates to be dressed in the Garland of Roses. Homage to Secretariat as 22 of 23 horses entered have him in their pedigree with only the Japanese shipper Derma Sotogake missing his bloodlines. The morning line favorite, FORTE, was scratched the morning of the race and was going to be the next choice. Fingers crossed my next choice does not scratch.

In my thorough examination, I key on 12 factors when determining my winner and ultimately betting strategy. 1/Pedigree, 2/ Beyer Analysis, 3/ Timeform (Early/Late/Style), 4/ John White Strikes 5/ Days since last race, 6/ Speed Rating/Track Variant, 7/ 3rd Race off Layoff, 8/ Workout Blowout?, 9/ Dosage (albeit less of a factor these days), 10/ Churchill History, 11/ Mike Welsch Derby Clocker insights, 12/ Prep Race Review/Results.

TOSS (6): 1 Hit Show (35-1), 11 Disarm (26-1), 12 Jace's Road (41-1), 13 Sun Thunder (37-1), 21 Cyclone Mischief, 23 King Russell (41-1)

FACTORS - Need to Cut Down (4): 4 Confidence Game (20-1), 7 Reincarnate (16-1), 16 Raise Cain (38-1), 18 Rocket Can (36-1)

CONTENDERS (8)

2 Verifying (15-1): T: Cox J: Gaffalione O: Magnier/Tabor
      Sire: Hard Spun (Danzig) Dam: Diva Delite (Repent) BB 99
3 Two Phil's (12-1) T: Rivelli J: Loveberry O: Patricia's Hope LLC
      Sire: Hard Spun ( Danzig) Dam: Mia Torri (General Quarters) BB: 101
5 Tapit Trice (5-1) T: Pletcher J: Saez O: Whisper Hill Farm
      Sire: Tapit (Pulpit) Dam: Danzatrice (Dunkirk) BB 99
6 Kingsbarns (12-1) T: Pletcher J: Ortiz O: Spendthrift Farm LLC
      Sire: Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) Dam: Lady Tapit (Tapit) BB 95
8 Mage (15-1) T: Delgado J: Castellano O: OGMA Investments
      Sire: Good Magic (Curlin) Dam: Puca (Big Brown) BB 94
14 Angel of Empire (8-1) T: Cox J: Prat O: Albaugh Family Stables LLC
      Sire: Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) Dam: Armony's Angel (To Honor and Serve) BB 94
15 Forte (3-1) T: Pletcher J: Ortiz Jr O: Repole Stable
      Sire: Violence (Medaglia d'Oro) Dam: Queen Caroline (Blame) BB 100
17 Derma Sotogake (10-1) T: Otonashi J: Lemaire O: Hiroyuki Asanuma
      Sire: Mind Your Biscuits (Posse) Dam: Amour Poesie (Neo Universe) BB -
22 Mandarin Hero (30-1) T: Fujita J: Kimura O: Hiroaki Arai
      Sire: Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday) Dam: Namura Nadeshiko (Fuji Kiseki) BB 100

2023 RIDERS UP SELECTION

6 KINGSBARNS

NOTE: Initial Selection was FORTE before he was scratched morning of race. In hindsight should have selected the Place horse from the Florida Derby, MAGE. Congrats to those connections.

WIN             6 KINGSBARNS
PLACE      22 MANDARIN HERO (Longshot Special Will Bet to Win)
SHOW      14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE
4th              3 TWO PHIL'S
5th              2 VERIFYING
OTHERS 17 DERMA SOTOGAKE, 5 TAPIT TRICE, 8 MAGE

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.

2022 Kentucky Derby Selection

2022-05-07T12:22:00.005-07:00

Kentucky Derby 2022 Selection

Admittedly this year's fastest two minutes in sports crept up quickly which is an omen for this year's selection. My 2022 rendition is lacking its normal form highlighting current events and family updates. This is the 21st Riders Up selection in a row and 24th overall. Enjoy your Derby.

Toss (6): 2 - Happy Jack, 4 - Summer Is Tomorrow, 14 - Barber Road, 17 - Classic Causeway, 18 - Tawny Port, 21 - Rich Strike

Cuts - Underneath Possibilities - Need to Eliminate (3): 5 - Smile Happy, 8 - Charge It, 19 - Zozos

Contenders (11):

1 - Mo Donegal

3 - Epicenter

6 - Messier

7 - Crown of Pride (Wise Guy Selection)

9 - Tiz the Bomb

10 - Zandon

11 - Pioneer of Medina

12 - Taiba

13 - Simplification

15 - White Abarrio

16 - Cyberknife

The pace scenario is potentially blistering which typically sets up for closers despite the traffic. Summer Is Tomorrow will be the first quarter pole leader with question is it :22.6 or faster with 1/2 mile of :45.4 or faster. Morning line favorite Zandon is a closer so this pace scenario sets up well yet it is all about the trip. Mo Donegal and Tiz the Bomb also fit this profile. I have always loved this scenario for Derby however since the Derby points system changed the race has fallen suit. I like those stalkers sitting off the pace. Epicenter, Messier, Taibi fit the stalker just off the pace style. Other contenders Crown Pride, Pioneer of Medina, Simplification, White Abarrio, and Cyberknife are training well and would need big steps forward.

Always mindful of 3rd race off layoff. Mo Donegal, Messier, Zandon, Taiba (3rd career race), White Abarrio

Big Fan of Zandon, Epicenter, Taiba, and Messier for this race. Messier would be logical being a hockey guy however unlike gritty number 11 and his patented 1 footed snap shot Messier tends to not fight when challenged. Epicenter may get hung up due to Post 3 and the race speed right next to him in post 4. Zandon being a closer the pace could set up well while Taiba is lightly raced.

2022 Riders Up Selection

Taiba. California horses have won 7 of past 10 Run for the Roses. The trend continues in 2022. The morning line was 12-1 which would be great however expect it to be closer to 5 or 6:1. Two months ago Taiba had yet to run a race let alone be considered on the Derby trail which many horsepeople point to as a major strike and typically I would agree as foundation has not been achieved with more races. The game is changing and Taiba's foundation in training was with Baffert before his suspension and need to change trainers to be entered. Taiba has 2 races including impressively winning Santa Anita Derby both with 100+ Beyers and is the progeny class of the field and will be 3 year old's best by year's end. Will the Derby kick start this?

WIN 12 - Taiba

PLACE 3 - Epicenter

SHOW 10 - Zandon

4th 6 - Messier

5th 15 - White Abarrio

Others: 1 - Mo Donegal, 11 - Pioneer of Medina, 7 - Crowd Pride, 9 - Tiz the Bomb, 13 - Simplification, 16 - Cyberknife

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.

Kentucky Derby 2021 Selection

2021-04-30T09:26:00.005-07:00

Eight months have past since the last Derby held Labor Day weekend. We've handed out two Green Jackets (golf clap DJ, Hideki). Brady had yet to take an official Buccaneer snap then proceeded to win his 7th Super Bowl. Roll Tide keep rolling. Tiger may be done. Aaron Rodgers hosted Jeopardy. This week we return for our annual Mint Julep in a quest to identify the quintessential Derby hat while a crowd assembles to sing My Old Kentucky Home (Thank God!). Shocking it has been 17 years since I last attended a Derby (Smarty Jones). I miss being at Churchill on this weekend.

For the uninitiated, this narrative is a recap of my year (or 238 days this year) leading to my annual selection. After 10 years, kids and I moved from heart of Silicon Valley (Menlo Park) to beautiful, sleepy Orinda which randomly was once home to Sheila E who co-starred with Rogers Nelson in Purple Rain. With Zoom Fatigue at all-time highs, kids switched to Orinda schools in January returning full-time to class last week. Finally an inkling of long overdue normalcy. Concern the real damage will be the developmental impact of all our children in 5, 10, 20 years versus past 15 months.

Bitcoin's first Riders Up reference was in 2013 (Orb) with deeper prognostication in 2014 (California Chrome) rendition. Ethereum would be launched 2 months after that writing. Conjuring up my best @Super70sSports imitation as I teleport back in Riders Up time to my May 2014 writing:

"Bitcoin is in its infancy. Had reader's heeded advice last year and purchased bitcoin at around $93, the entertaining volatile ride to just shy of $1,200 and now hovering at $450 may have been fruitful -- suffice to say typical of a nascent market. Love pullbacks -- discount, on sale, buying opportunity. Big believer in the technology (Bitcoin) and proponent of how it may become a viable global digital currency among other things. Reminiscent of the early stages of the internet (at least public internet in the 90's). Obviously the internet thing panned out pretty well. Bitcoin connects the dots on my career from ATMs, trading to venture capital today." Currently BTC $57,026 and ETH $2,750

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) have become the rage and are catching a significant bid. NFTs have been around for years, think CryptoKitties in 2017. In my humble opinion NFTs are currently overheated. That said, NFTs have staying power as all our kids who've been on their devices playing games during class are thinking in digital terms. Consider possible digital asset meteoric rise as these kids age. NFTs are the new baseball cards, vinyl records, art. Bitcoin, crypto, and the "creator economy" are here to stay. Every 10 minutes bitcoin becomes more secure. If you think you missed it, think again (legal had me add "this is not investment advice") as digital assets are just wrapping the pregame skate considering the US Dollar "infrastructure" printing presses are working overtime. Global impact is the bigger play. I have my popcorn watching this movie play out.

Last weekend I hit my 4-year anniversary working for this book company originally called Cadabra. Hat tip to the other Jeff at Amazon as he sunsets to Chairman. His relentless customer centric focus and maintaining our culture has allowed me to work for the largest startup in the world. We just happen to be well funded. His 2016 Shareholder Letter was released 1 week prior to my first Day 1 and has been a driver for me professionally and personally. “Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why it is always Day 1.” As of this writing I am at 1,468 Day 1s with AMZN market cap moving from $443B to $1.79T in that time. Fun fact, check where www.relentless.com takes you.

Stick Tap to my 1991 Hill-Murray Pioneer teammates celebrating 30 years since our Minnesota State High School Hockey Championship in the last single class tournament. Cool to have North Star legend Lou Nanne and Chris Cuthbert (still announcing NHL games) perform play-by-play. In memoriam of Alex Trebek, "Who scored the final goal of single tier tourney?"

Special shoutout to those who entertained me in past 8 months while working from home.

Ok let's start working backwards to make my selection. First this year had many ties to my hockey idol, Wayne Gretzky. Three colts ran in Derby preps, The Great One, Gretzky the Great, and in honor of Walter Gretzky passing and even louder shout out to my dad (my hero and role model), Hockey Dad. The jockeys certainly did not tuck the right side of their silks, fold their boot tongue correctly, or baby powder their whips (which might get me canceled) as none made it to venerable Churchill. Mind boggling Gretzky stats. if Gretzky did not score a goal (894 goals), or you subtracted his power play points (890 points), in both instances he'd still be the NHL's all-time points leader. After Gretzky the next top 4 all-time NHL point leaders all played 246 or more games than Gretzky (3 full seasons). He was Secretariat.

A significant change for first time horses are not allowed to use anti-bleeding drug Lasix as part of sport's attempt to move toward the elimination of race-day medication. No points were awarded to horses running on Lasix thus horses have been conditioned without it. Last horse to win Derby without Lasix was Grindstone in 1996. There certainly is a "vaxxing" joke in here somewhere.

Another abnormality is only Rock Your World has hit 100 Beyer with others close in Medina Spirit (99), Hot Rod Charlie (99), Mandaloun (98), Essential Quality (97), and Highly Motivated (97). For second time Churchill will be using the special 20-stall starting gate.

Diving deep I've added racing style EP (Early Pressers), P (Presser), PC (Presser/Closer), C (Closer). With defection of Caddo River we've lost S (Speed) and since new points system in 2012 speed horses have not earned enough points benefitting PC and Derby favorites. A closer has hit 4th or 5th for Superfecta, Super Hi-Five bets in Derby. If you're from the "always bet the greys" school of handicapping favorite Essential Quality, Soup and Sandwich would be your exacta box.

In honor of the NFL Draft concurrently occurring and post my Kiper/McShay like studying of DRF PP, video of prep races and works, Mike Welsch insights, implementing Jon White's Strikes System, pedigree examination, 1/8 pole position (1st and 2nd time), and other secret sauce. Let's Go!

Toss (5):

3-Brooklyn Strong (P), 5-Sainthood (EP), 11-Dynamic One (PC), 13-Hidden Stash (C), 20- Bourbonic (PC)

Cuts - Underneath Possibilities - Need to Eliminate (4):

12-Helium (PC), 16-King Fury (PC), 18-Super Stock (EP), 19-Soup and Sandwich (EP)

Factors - In My Exotics (3):

2-Like the King (EP), 4-Keepmeinmind (C), 6-O Besos (PC)

Contenders (8):

1-Known Agenda (PC): Adding blinkers has helped. 1986 (Ferdinand) last rail winner. Does new gate system help?

7-Mandaloun (PC): Clunker in last, 1956 (Needles) last time winner was 5th/worse in prior. Training solid. Redemption?

8-Medina Spirit (EP): Consistent 90 Beyers. Baffert - nuff said. Seems to be more Robin than Batman.

9-Hot Rod Charlie (EP): Style versatility, Shocking 2nd as 94:1 in BC Juvenile (2nd to Essential Quality). Improving Beyers.

10-Midnight Bourbon (EP): Consistent Beyers 96 in last 2. Purchased for $525k. Will he live up to the hype?

14-Essential Quality* (PC): Godolphin Racing has yet to win Derby neither has a Louisville native trainer (crazy). Warranted favorite as never lost which have proven successful of late.

15-Rock Your World (EP): 2 of 3 career races on Turf. Similar to Riders Up Selection Barbaro. $650k price tag with classic pedigree. 3 for 3 in wins.

17-Highly Motivated (PC): Wise guy pick. 2010 (Super Saver) last time winner failed to win as a 3-year old. Improving high 90 Beyers. No Derby Winner ever from 17 hole.

* Essential Quality is proper ML Favorite

2021 Riders Up Selection

Hot Rod Charlie. Fan of the set-up with third race off a layoff, proper recent Derby winner running style, a blowout on Wednesday in training showing energy. Wish I could get the 94.40:1 he had in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where he placed behind Essential Quality. This time he turns the tables as Blue Grass may have taken its toll on Elusive Quality.

Hot Rod Charlie's connections are 5 former Brown Football teammates six years removed from college. They created Boat Race LLC (yes after the drinking game) and this is their 3rd horse. Interestingly was their last if it failed to perform. The second was claimed and $100k claiming funds parlayed into this colt. This crew is reminiscent of my 10 closest Notre Dame friends who started an annual Boys Trip in 1997 thanks to our group's Kentucky representative, Buck. Probably the first ownership group requesting PTO to enjoy all that Louisville offers during Derby week in an Airbnb.

ESPN's Marty Smith, aka the hipper Tom Rinaldi, had them on his Podcast (first 25minutes) providing insight to these connections and will be partying with them Friday evening at a local distillery. The connections are giving back. The group's ringleader, Patrick O'Neill, father died of Melanoma in 2015. His dad's brothers are Hot Rod Charlie's trainer and bloodstock agent. In honor of the "6th man," they are donating 1/6 of all future earnings to Melanoma Research Alliance. This narrative would be quite the tale.

WIN 9-Hot Rod Charlie (EP)

PLACE 14-Essential Quality* (PC)

SHOW 15-Rock Your World (EP)

4th 17-Highly Motivated (PC)

5th 7-Mandaloun (PC)

Others 1-Known Agenda (PC), 8-Medina Spirit (EP), 10-Midnight Bourbon (EP)

Underneath 2-Like the King (EP), 4-Keepmeinmind (C), 6-O Besos (PC)

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.

Kentucky Derby 2020 Selection

2020-09-04T09:26:00.003-07:00

Wow. The first Saturday of ~~May~~ September is upon us. Wait, what? I'm squeezing this year's rendition between my added Hall Monitor and Junior Techie duties where I am excelling at optimizing my kids' Zoom connections. Didn't have time to create a drinking or bingo board (kid's show) adding entertainment during NBC's Derby lead up to the fastest 2 minutes in sports. Every time "Social Distancing", "Zoom", "Shelter in Place", "Work From Home", and "Unprecedented" are muttered prompts a drink. Guaranteed hockey player turned degenerate horseman Eddie O mentions Art Collector where a recent injury forced off the Derby trail and was on Riders Up radar. Eddie will most likely go against the favorite which hasn't been a friendly play since the new points system was instituted aside from the debacle last year. Despite this year being postponed to September, Churchill Downs did accommodate the first Saturday in May with a virtual Kentucky Derby (of course they did) of all 13 Triple Crown winners. Cheesy yet they got it right.

Virtual Triple Crown Kentucky Derby

As is tradition with Riders Up annual selection, an update on my end before the real business. Last year I had overdue shoulder surgery correcting a lingering injury when veteran NHLer and Michigan alum Mike Knuble destroyed me at Joe Louis Arena during the 1993 Great Lakes Invitational (yep I'm a dinosaur). Praying it cures the dreaded Ian Baker Finch (golf's most annoying announcer) curse my dear friend and newly married Mango cast on 4th tee box after I flawlessly started Eagle, Birdie, Birdie during our inaugural ND Boys Trip. Golf game has never been the same. After many years I am PhD level with punchouts given the practice. It would be a lifetime achievement if Club Pro Guy incorporated this tale into a Thursday Night Men's League presser.

Club Pro Guy

My kids are my everything. Last year which feels like a decade ago along with some gray hairs we ventured to Paris and London creating lifetime memories. Still working for that book company and now hammering out a Twitch sponsorship for James as he accelerates his gaming prowess while becoming the big man on middle school virtual campus. Thanks to YouTube, he's become a food aficionado so requesting Portnoy to consider him as a substitute for "One Bite, everyone knows the rules" pizza reviews. Don't hold the Michigan/ND rivalry against his old man as we can compare trading notes and technical analysis dogmas for DDTG, Meanwhile, Elle is thriving in developing her Silicon Valley future CEO startup instincts having fired Tik Tok before it became the rage and sharing all with China. Shocked she hasn't received a quasi-exclusive Clubhouse invite, although maybe she has and I'm not aware. Her keen interior design eye that Chip and Joanna called out will be crucial in our new home search. Oh and she chuckled at my "That's Hot" moment with another Paris who I chatted pucks with pre COVID at the Rose Bowl during Upfront Summit while also helping Cube and Reese with business initiatives.

Race insight. It's ironic the US Open Tennis occurring during this running as Nadal was a leading contender before injury forced retirement (the horse not the tennis champion) yet a long shot in this field is Major Fed who edges Rafa out in my humble opinion. There is a significant tie to Riders Up 2003 massive score hitting the top 5 horses with Funny Cide beating the odds as the first gelding since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929. This year Funny Cide's owners, Sackatoga Stables and its trainer Barclay Tagg return with impressive and race favorite Tiz the Law. Hmmm, Given how 2020 has unfolded, Tiz the Law's name is trumped only by the fact his dad is named Constitution. Are the stars aligning? Mindful of cancel culture and if reckless looting/riots are top of mind then longshot Storm the Court or maybe NY Traffic could tempt you. However, typically my modus operandi is to stay Authentic who most likely will shoot to the lead but may not have enough gas or should I say electric (thank you Elon) to finish. A sentimental shout out to South Bend as he seeks to find the Luck of the Irish while interestingly Sir Richard Branson takes part virtually via Necker Island.

Toss (8): 1-Finick the Fierce, 4-Storm the Court, 5-Major Fed, 9-Mr Big Moves, 11-Necker Island, 12-Solo Volante, 14-Winning Impression. Note 6-King Guillermo is scratched.

Could Factor (3): 3-Enforceable, 7-Money Moves, 13 Attachment Rate

Contenders (7): Will be part of betting strategy

2 - Max Player: Reminds me of Riders Up Selection Ice Box as deep closer

8 - South Bend: Purely Exotics. Sentimental as was home for 4 years.

10 - Thousand Words: Sneaky. Riders Up Tanqueray Long Shot

15 - NY Traffic: Exotics.

16 - Honor A.P.: Breeder's dream and may be sitting on a sizzling performance

17 - Tiz the Law: Unquestionable favorite

18 - Authentic: Pure speed, does he have enough Elon Musk electric or gas to go 10 furlongs

Let's Handicap.After My Old Kentucky Home is played keep your eyes fixated on holes 15-18 which was the old auxiliary gate and replaced this year with a new gate. I expect 18-Authentic to dart to lead as it's his best chance yet he is slightly compromised in that position. If 17-Tiz the Law is checked it could impact his chances. If not, I expect a romp. The race most likely will be determined here in the first quarter. Expect 10-Thousand Words, 15-NY Traffic, 16-Honor A.P. , and 17-Tiz the Law will fall in behind 18-Authentic with some others as they hit the quarter pole in most likely 22.8 to 23.1. with 45.8 to 46.4 half mile split and possible record in play (1:59.4 Secretariat 1973). Tiz the Law ran 2:00.95 1 1/4 in the Travers @ Saratoga. proving Tiz the Law can get the distance easily and this being his third race off a layoff. Key callout as the added four months coupled with traditionally no entrant having run 10 furlongs (1 1/4 miles) prior to Derby foundation has been added to these equine animals rendering normal Derby data points including dosage irrelevant in 2020. Sadly there will not be 150,000 fans present.

2020 Kentucky Derby Selection

Another Derby jinx will be eliminated as never has a horse from Post Position 17 won the Derby. Purely an anomaly that the Sackatoga boys and their yellow bus have a knack of overcoming. I expect a Triple Crown contender heading to Pimlico after winning Belmont Stakes in June. I am a fan of under the radar Thousand Words who benefited from the 4 months and his dad is Pionerof the Nile (former Riders Up Selection) and grandpa is Empire Maker who finished second to Funny Cide in 2003 Derby.

Tiz the Law

WIN 17-Tiz the Law

PLACE 10-Thousand Words

SHOW 16-Honor A.P.

4th 2-Max Player

5th 15 - NY Traffic

6th 8-South Bend

7th 18-Authentic

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.

Riders Up!

2026 Derby Selection

⚡ PACE SCENARIO

HANDICAPPING THE DERBY

🏆CONTENDERS (9 Horses)

RIDERS UP! 2026 DERBY SELECTION

COMMANDMENT (6)

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.

2025 Derby Recap - Sovereignty wins

Riders Up! Strikes Gold with Sovereignty!

Riders Up! Selections

2025 Derby Selection

Pace Scenario

Handicapping the Derby

Derby Winner Profile: Post 2013 Point System Era (2013-2024)

Riders Up! 2025 Derby Selection

18 Sovereignty

Sovereignty – Kingdom-Bred, Bitcoin-Backed, and Born for Glory

2024 Derby Selection

2023 Derby Selection

2023 Kentucky Derby Selection

RACE ANALYSIS

TOSS (6): 1 Hit Show (35-1), 11 Disarm (26-1), 12 Jace's Road (41-1), 13 Sun Thunder (37-1), 21 Cyclone Mischief, 23 King Russell (41-1)

FACTORS - Need to Cut Down (4): 4 Confidence Game (20-1), 7 Reincarnate (16-1), 16 Raise Cain (38-1), 18 Rocket Can (36-1)

CONTENDERS (8)

2023 RIDERS UP SELECTION

6 KINGSBARNS

NOTE: Initial Selection was FORTE before he was scratched morning of race. In hindsight should have selected the Place horse from the Florida Derby, MAGE. Congrats to those connections.

WIN 6 KINGSBARNSPLACE 22 MANDARIN HERO (Longshot Special Will Bet to Win)SHOW 14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE4th 3 TWO PHIL'S 5th 2 VERIFYINGOTHERS 17 DERMA SOTOGAKE, 5 TAPIT TRICE, 8 MAGE

2022 Kentucky Derby Selection

Kentucky Derby 2021 Selection

Kentucky Derby 2020 Selection

RIDERS UP!
2026 DERBY SELECTION

WIN 6 KINGSBARNS
PLACE 22 MANDARIN HERO (Longshot Special Will Bet to Win)
SHOW 14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE
4th 3 TWO PHIL'S
5th 2 VERIFYING
OTHERS 17 DERMA SOTOGAKE, 5 TAPIT TRICE, 8 MAGE