Yogi Adityanath's huge development push is political investment for a Narendra Modi blitzkrieg in 2019

The scale and glitz of the just concluded UP Investors Summit would not have surprised anyone. Nor would have the signing of 1,045 memorandum of understandings worth Rs 4.28 lakh crore raised any eyebrows. In fact, anything less would have been underwhelming. After all, coming close on the heels of Magical Maharashtra, there was undoubtedly an element of sibling rivalry at play, which the prime minister also playfully alluded to in his address.

As per various estimates, the cost of "dressing up" Lucknow for the mega bash was anywhere between Rs 60 to Rs 100 crore. Whether there was an attempt to outdo each other or not, like Devendra Fadnavis, Yogi Adityanath too was following the trail of Narendra Modi in organising the "mother of all Investor Summits". The template of Vibrant Gujarat has been xeroxed by practically all chief ministers making state-sponsored investor summits a booming business for events, hospitality, travel, PR and advertising industries. But, for Yogi, the stakes were higher. In many ways, it was his ‘coming out party’ and he had to make a statement out of it.

For BJP and Modi too, a lot is riding on Uttar Pradesh. That explains, the presence of 20 Union ministers (including six Cabinet heavyweights -- Arun Jaitley, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman, Rajnath Singh, Piyush Goyal and Smriti Irani), inauguration by the prime minister and closing plenary address by the President Ram Nath Kovind. The signalling could not have been stronger as the prime minister, the Central government, party and the Sangh are all solidly behind Yogi and committed to the cause of Uttar Pradesh. With Lok Sabha elections expected anytime in the coming 12 months, it was a very significant message for the people of the state, who have not experienced this kind of alignment between Lucknow and Delhi in a long time.

It is natural to be cynical about the astronomical figures of MoUs signed after every investor summit. Empirical evidence suggests an abysmally low rate of conversion from promise to money on the ground. Industrialists are usually obliged to mark attendance, like at weddings for which they could not turn down the invite out of business or social compulsion. However, Yogi's do was a tad different from other investor jamborees.

Although the captains of industry showed up in full strength in Lucknow, they were discreetly circumspect in making commitments barring, perhaps, Gautam Adani who promised everything from education to agriculture with a proposed outlay Rs 35,000 crore. Many repackaged their current and on-going plans (like Mukesh Ambani’s Jio) while few others (such as Kumarmangalam Birla) talked of their Group’s past investments in the state. Anand Mahindra went tactically sentimental and invoked the blessings of his late mother, who belonged to Allahabad. Not that any of them could have given the occasion a miss, their collective presence was a huge recognition for Yogi’s rising stature and the next man to watch out for in BJP after Modi.

While the 'big boys' provided the star quotient, the real bang came from the Central ministers and public sector enterprises. The prime minister unveiled a Rs 20,000 crore defence corridor plan running through Bundelkhand with an employment potential of 2.5 lakh which was also the showstopper of the event. Goyal confirmed plans for two new railway factories, expansion of the existing one at Rae Bareli and starting one at Gorakhpur, besides fast-tracking the two railway freight corridors passing through the state.

It was clear that Yogi and the BJP strategists have identified tourism as a "low hanging fruit". And, what can be a better occasion to promote Uttar Pradesh as a destination than the Ardh Kumbh Mela in 2019 for which the state government has already set aside a budget of Rs 1,500 crore. Thus, Ashok Gajapathi Raju promised to make nine new airports operational in the next 15 months. Allahabad will be connected to 13 cities. Two new international airports are in the pipeline at Jewar (Noida – billed to be the largest in the country) and Kushinagar.

Similarly, the railway minister assured up-gradation of key stations around Allahabad. He wants to start a Swiss-style heritage railway in the Terai region. Gadkari talked of highways and waterways. Expressways have been announced to connect Purvanchal and Bundelkhand to the heartland. Ambani renewed his commitment to supporting Namami Gange and Mahindra is planning a Rs 200 crore resort near in the Vindhya-Varanasi region.

If all this provides visible development, aerospace and defence are expected to be the two major game changers. A full-fledged aerospace hub is being planned in Jewar, next to the international airport site. Defence hubs have been planned along Gautam Buddha Nagar, Agra, Aligarh, Chitrakoot, Kanpur and Varanasi.

The list can go on. But, the underlying subtext in all this was, realising the importance of Uttar Pradesh in 2019 elections, BJP has decided to crank up development with a strategic partnership between the centre and the state.

Riding on the back of these government-aided projects, Uttar Pradesh expects private investment to pour in.

Understandably, therefore, in the ceremony to felicitate the 1050 MoU signatories, maximum excitement was observed among the MSME players as they are likely to benefit most from the first wave of development projects.

Readers may recall the euphoria generated when Samajwadi Party came to power in 2003. Those were the heydays of the Amar Singh, Subrata Roy and Anil Ambani triumvirate. But, the excitement fizzled out as Mulayam Singh Yadav failed to deliver on two major counts of governance and corruption. Though the law and order situation improved during Mayawati’s term corruption remained a major deterrent. Akhilesh Yadav tried but there were too many contradictions and multiple power centres within the Samajwadi Party for him to be able to draw meaningful traction for his "Umeed o ki pradesh" (a State of hope).

Yogi has the task cut out for him. He has made a determined start on the law and order front. Still, large private players are likely to adopt a policy of wait and watch to see the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections. In the interim, it is a smart move to kick-start the investments and gets some early wins with government projects. Meanwhile, the Ardh Kumbh of 2019 will be a good opportunity to both provide the state with a face-lift as well as showcase Yogi's administrative skills with BJPs core constituents.

Thereafter, if all goes well in the Lok Sabha husting, Uttar Pradesh and Yogi both will be all set for a take-off. It is a mission in which neither Yogi nor Modi can afford to fail.

If he delivers - he will earn the hashtag "#YogiRoxx" for life.

Narendra Modi was at his combative best in both Houses of Parliament last Wednesday, as only he can be. It is difficult to imagine another prime minister batting so spiritedly on the front foot when pushed to the wall. Let us admit that the narrative has not been going in the BJP’s favour over the last six months or so. This has added a new swagger in the Opposition’s gait. Rahul Gandhi is already talking like the Prime Minister in waiting and predicting the exit of Modi. The BJP baiters among the chatterati, media and intellectual circuit can barely hide their glee at signs of a resurgent Congress. But then, as Modi said at the conclusion of his speech in the Lok Sabha: “Main ladne wala insaan hoon”. He is not one to go down without a fight.

Rhetoric and innuendos apart, the going has not been easy for the BJP in the last year and a half, or, one can say, roughly since demonetisation in November 2016. This was followed by GST and the consequent GDP slowdown, the Gujarat election and finally, the Rajasthan by-poll setback. On the international front, we had Doka La and continuous skirmishes along the Line of Control with Pakistan. Kashmir has returned to the boil again, belying hopes of any breakthrough.

All this while, as this writer has consistently noted, Narendra Modi and his team deserve credit for staying the course and not yielding to short term quick-fix populism under pressure. At the same time, it cannot be denied that they have scored some massive self-goals, the most recent being Padmaavat and LTCG (Long-term Capital Gains) Tax, albeit in two different spheres. Add to these, a couple of PR disasters and we have a pudding largely of the BJP’s own making.

First, Gujarat was a massive miscalculation. While Narendra Modi would have factored in the impact of demonetisation and GST (some believe he did not wish to delay GST beyond June 2017 to have enough time to deal with the glitches before the Gujarat polls), BJP definitely did not bargain for the level of anti-incumbency on the ground, especially among the Patidars and Dalits. Otherwise, it is difficult to imagine that a master strategist like Amit Shah, who had worked miracles in an alien territory like Uttar Pradesh, would come so close to biting the dust in his home turf.

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, one can argue that straws were already blowing in the wind when, despite his best efforts, Amit Shah could not prevent Ahmed Patel’s return to the Rajya Sabha. Equally, the Modi-Shah duo had underestimated the traction Rahul Gandhi’s campaign would be able to generate with the meticulous planning of a seasoned general like Ashok Gehlot in the field, Ahmed Patel working behind the scenes, Sam Pitroda in the war-room and some help from Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani.

The story of Gujarat bears repetition only because it could contain seeds of reverses in other states. The Rajasthan by-polls may have been a timely harbinger of this. One does not need a psephology expert to decipher the level of disenchantment on the ground with the present BJP dispensation in Rajasthan. However, for reasons one can only guess, the BJP central leadership has not hinted at a change of guard in Jaipur before going to the voters later this year. If it is banking on Narendra Modi to deliver the goods, this could be a tall ask, going by the current mood in the state.

The situation may not be very different in other major states going for elections this year. In Karnataka, there is little to choose between Yeddyurappa and Siddaramaiah. Also there are no indications that the BJP’s grassroots management is going to be vastly superior to that of the Congress in this southern state. So, ultimately it may boil down to local alliances and caste calculations, with no distinct competitive edge for either party. But the BJP has far greater stakes in Karnataka, since a setback is likely to have a cascading effect on other state elections and its Lok Sabha ambitions for the south.

In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh too, the BJP is faced with classic dilemmas. At this stage, so late in the day, they cannot afford to replace either Raman Singh or Shivraj Singh Chouhan, even though both of them carry a heavy load of anti-incumbency. Chhattisgarh has always been a narrow call. One has to wait and see if the progress made by the state in containing Maoist insurgency will fetch dividends for Raman Singh. In Madhya Pradesh, the organisational strength of the RSS and feudal factions in a royalty-ridden Congress may still see through the day for the BJP.

In the North East, Nagaland turned out to be an embarrassment, with none of the parties filing nominations. While the BJP may have an edge in Tripura, it is unlikely that the party will make much headway in Meghalaya. BJP’s flirtations in Tamil Nadu have not led to any meaningful liaison. In West Bengal, it is still a distant second despite the recent acquisition of Mukul Roy into the fold.

In short, from all projections, it is not going to be an easy run for the BJP in the coming months. Sensing this, the BJP’s alliance partners have started flexing their muscles. First it was the Shiv Sena, and now it is Chandrababu Naidu. The Akalis are voicing their unhappiness through a vocal Naresh Gujral. Pavan Varma has been doing the talking for JD(U), while Nitish Kumar is maintaining a studied silence.

All this has bolstered the Congress’ confidence and it is behaving as if they are not only back in the game, but also certain of ousting Modi, if not the BJP and NDA, in the next Lok Sabha elections whenever they might be. This is visible in Rahul’s body language, voice and tweets, which have got back the characteristic Gandhi-dynasty ring of arrogance.

The excitement in the so-called “Lutyens Eco-System” at the prospect of the old order returning is palpable and the Congress hashtag “#BasEkAurSaal” seems to have deeply resonated with this constituency that was becoming increasingly restless and frustrated.

Undeniably, there is disquiet in the BJP camp, and the much-ridiculed “bhakts” who are emotionally invested in Modi are betraying signs of nervousness. Yet, their faith in Modi’s magical abilities to turn the tables at the right juncture remains intact. The more circumspect among them are being cautiously optimistic.

During all this, ignoring the undercurrents of tension and surface turbulence, Modi is going about his business as usual with the supreme self-assurance of being around for a second term. This was apparent in the Budget, which though gift-wrapped for the poor, was pragmatic and prudent in its content. He first hosted Benjamin Netanyahu and then ASEAN leaders for Republic Day, after which he has now left for visits to Palestine and Arab countries. He also fit in election rallies in far-flung Tripura and Karnataka in his punishing schedule. All this shows he is working to a plan.

Although Modi keeps talking about “one nation, one poll”, the rumours of bringing forward the Lok Sabha polls to as early as April-May this year was probably just a test balloon. It may have been a ploy to force Rahul and the Opposition to peak too early and lose steam before launching the Modi 2.0 campaign.

Modi is not one to start his campaign with a passionate war cry. He is more likely to sound the bugle with a major disruption that will change the rules of the game, catching his opponents unaware and unprepared. So, all eyes are now set on Modi, watching his next move and expecting the unexpected from arguably one of the greatest mass leaders this country has produced.

Pundits and punters have already jumped into the seat projection game. But, it may be a trifle too soon in the day to start counting the chickens.

Gujarat election results: Rahul Gandhi has earned his spurs, but must spell out his agenda, 'cool' nothings won't do

The last three days have been a lot about Rahul Gandhi. And, justly so.

Even as a chronic critic of the Nehru-Gandhis, I concede that Rahul has finally earned his spurs. He deserves to be congratulated both on his elevation to Congress president and the party's impressive show in Gujarat. This is not a convenient change of heart. But, I do believe Rahul has come of age.

Let us accept, at this juncture, the Congress did not have another leader to take over from Sonia Gandhi. The succession question could not be put off any longer given reports about Sonia’s health. It was pretty much a “now or never” moment for the family.

It is to Rahul's credit that in the last few months he worked hard to increase his acceptability as his mother's heir. He was no longer a default option but emerged as a natural choice under the circumstances. The dynasty issue can be a subject of a separate on-going conversation.

About Gujarat too, there is much for Rahul to feel happy. For the first time, he carried a marathon campaign on his own shoulder. A leader has to inject energy into the team, instill confidence, generate enthusiasm and develop a ‘can do’ spirit. Rahul scored high on all these counts.

In the absence of a credible state leader, without Rahul leading from the front, the Congress would not have reached anywhere close to its final tally of 77. There was a rich crop of anti-incumbency waiting to be harvested on the ground. But, Gujarat Congress did not have the wherewithal to translate them into votes. Rahul was the mascot they needed.

The Congress strategists could have chosen to treat the Gujarat elections as another provincial battle. A victory would have been a prize plume on Rahul’s cap. But, they sensed greater opportunity. There were multiple factors working against the BJP: Agrarian distress, caste fault-lines, Patidar unrest and palpable disenchantment in the trading community on Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation. It looked like the perfect pitch for the debut of a new skipper. Rahul's advisors decided to up the stakes and launch him as the official challenger to Narendra Modi in 2019.

Still, team Rahul could have chosen to restrict the fight to local issues. But, having billed it as a David versus Goliath act, they wrote the script as a mid-term referendum on Modi's three-year record as prime minister. Thus, instead of talking about what affected ordinary Gujaratis, the focus shifted to GST, demonetisation and Modi's alleged pro-capitalist and anti-poor policies. In hindsight, by doing so, Rahul may have walked straight into the Modi-Amit Shah trap.

Once the battle turned personal: Rahul brought out the best and the worst of vintage Modi. Perhaps, getting a bit carried away by the tail-wind of his early outings and buzz on social media, Rahul overestimated his ability to beat Modi in his own game, on his home turf.

The final tally is now before all to see. It would be pointless to do a counter-factual analysis to ask if the outcome would have been any different had Congress taken any other approach. I think '77' is possibly the best Congress could have achieved under any scenario. But, BJP being held below the century mark at 99 and the very close calls in several seats is surprising even with a lowered bar. There are serious lessons in the results for both sides to mull.

Talking of the Congress first, it must realise there is no further dividend to be reaped by flogging GST and demonetisation. The villagers of Uttar Pradesh showed demonetisation was a non-issue for the poor. Urban Gujarat’s message to them is smart businessmen know how to adjust to a new normal and move on.

Brand Rahul must have a clear and consistent positioning. Stakeholders need to know what he stands for. Clever quips can tickle his Twitter fan club and catchy Gabbar Singh Tax dialogues may get him applause at rallies but is not enough to win elections. He needs to go beyond taunting Modi and spell out his own agenda.

It is time for the Gandhi dynasty to understand that the poor no longer look for dole or charity. They want empowerment. Promises of loan waivers, subsidised meals, free healthcare and other socialist-era sops have less appeal to the masses.

Religion and caste cards have to be played carefully after weighing the longer-term implications. One-night stands with shady bedfellows, based on iffy quid-pro-quos such as “quotas”, can return to bite you later. "Janeu Dhari" cannot be put on and taken off as per convenience. It is fine to visit temples but be mindful of the blessing you seek. A boon in Gujarat may turn out to be a bane in Karnataka.

“Mr Cool” does not impress the youth. Millennials are an impatient lot. They know the world will not wait for them. The young are seeking opportunities and not jobs. They will want to know your vision and inanities like how each time an Indian youth takes a ‘selfie’ someone in China gets a job will leave them cold. You need to speak to them in their own idioms.

The list for BJP is even longer. It has to realise that, the old record of what the Congress did or did not do in 70 years is sounding tiresome. People will now look at BJP’s own four-year report card.

Governance is key. Surely, Modi knows Gujarat was not well managed since he left. But people gave him the benefit of doubt having seen his track record in the previous three terms. At a subliminal level they still think of him as their godfather and their own man in Delhi.

But other states may not be so forgiving. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and, certainly, Rajasthan will face huge anti-incumbency challenge. Having already expended much of his political capital on demonetisation and GST, it will be a Herculean task for Modi alone to carry these states across the finish line.

Modi’s own clean image has to be reflected by leaders down the line. The poor people in villages do not read Pew Surveys and World Bank reports. There is general consensus that corruption has gone up manifold since Modi left Gujarat. The situation in other BJP run states may not be any better.

Despite ad-nauseum talk about scams in the UPA regime, no big fish has yet been caught in the net. Discredited politicians, their cronies and family members still strut around freely with cock a snook attitude, often spewing venom at the Modi sarkar. This will hurt credibility of the government about its seriousness to act against the corrupt.

Implementation is as important as intent. The Modi government has to get a better handle on bureaucracy. The proverb goes, once bitten twice shy. The public has already been twice bitten: First during demonetisation and next over GST. Another roll-out fiasco or ham-handed execution can be seriously career limiting.

By all accounts, there is a lot of good work happening around the “JAM” trinity: Jan Dhan, Aadhaar and Mobile. Direct Benefit Transfer and schemes like Ujala, Ujjwala, Crop, Health and Life Insurance act as multipliers. But, like justice, welfare has to be seen and felt as much as much as it is done. For that, ensuring last mile delivery is crucial, which again goes back to governance and administration.

There is a perception that a section of the bureaucracy are still hedging their bets against Modi, hoping he will not get a second term and are, therefore, not fully aligning with him. Whether the Gujarat verdict will further embolden them to stay aloof one does not know. This is one of the biggest challenge before Modi, and for which, he will have to bring to the fore his legendary CEO skills that made him successful in Gujarat.

Victory is as good a time, if not better than defeat, for introspection. While BJP may be left with a bittersweet taste in the mouth, Congress had a chance to savour both the mithai and farsan of Gujarat. So, both could do with some honest postprandial soul searching now.

Narendra Modi does not believe in taking holidays. But, for once, no one can grudge Rahul Gandhi a Christmas and New Year break should he decide to go on one. 2018 will be a year of hectic action for both.

Gorakhpur tragedy calls for debate on corruption, mismanagement, but also our apathy towards public health

No tragedy can be greater than the death of helpless infants. Many babies weren't even named by their parents, as they had to be rushed to the hospital just days after they were born. Lives were literally nipped in the bud.

True to form, after having missed the news initially, given the din of the evening war-fests on prime time television, the media descended on Gorakhpur like vultures. And a game of competitive hashtags began on social media, with anchors screaming murder and massacre.

Unsurprisingly, the authorities and government were accused of a cover-up. That the tragedy occurred in the chief minister's own constituency, from where he was elected a five-time MP, came as a serendipitous opportunity for critics of Yogi Adityanath, who were already voicing their concern over the BJP leader's comments on cows and Vande Mataram.

The incident certainly caught the government unaware. This writer tweeted at the state health minister, Siddharth Nath Singh, of whom people generally have a positive opinion. To his credit, the minister responded to the tweet, albeit it was a trifle defensive.

Adityanath, however, chose to remain silent, monitoring the situation from the capital, while allowing his minister to do the talking.

72 deaths have been recorded in Gorakhpur. PTI

At such moments of crisis, governments can never do or say anything right. An otherwise seasoned and articulate speaker, having also been a long-time spokesperson of BJP, Siddharth Nath Singh made a PR blunder by denying the deaths were due to shortage of bottled oxygen, as indicated by initial reports.

He made a second cardinal error in stating encephalitis had been prevalent in the area for a long time and there is a history of casualties increasing this time of the year. Though statistically true, it was a politically naive and insensitive statement to make.

Public perception, as always, was quickly formed and social media was equally prompt in pronouncing the government guilty. Blame was squarely fixed on the chief minister by virtue of Gorakhpur being his parliamentary constituency.

Siddharth Nath Singh's resignation was demanded, and the example of his maternal grandfather, former prime minister Lal Bahadur Shastri, who stepped down as railway minister following a major train accident, was cited.

In situations like this, facts tend to get fuzzy. However, despite the government's assertion, the general belief is that the deaths could have been averted if there was no outage of bottled oxygen at the hospital. And the reason oxygen cylinders weren't available is because the vendor suspended their delivery following non-payment of bills. There are also allegations of corruption and malpractices leveled against the head of the medical college. So, heads are bound to roll.

Whatever the real story, a medical mishap of such humongous proportions, 70 years after Independence, is indefensible. Negligence cannot be condoned. But Gorakhpur is not the first such incident, and unless there is a deep dive to find and isolate the root cause, it won't be the last. Therefore, once the dust has settled, there is a crying need for some calm analysis of the systemic malady that plagues the nation.

Once one gets over the instant analysis of 24/7 live news, before moving on to the next subject, it may be useful to do some research. There are a wealth of reports and articles on the encephalitis menace in Gorakhpur (recommended reading is The Gorakhpur Mystery). These papers will show how Siddharth Nath Singh's comments about the annual scourge was not without basis, though it cannot be a justification either. One will read how Baba Raghav Das Medical College is the only hospital across 15 districts in eastern UP and bordering areas of Nepal (not just Gorakhpur, as some would like to believe) equipped to treat encephalitis.

The encephalitis menace has been Adityanath's pet cause for many years. It has featured in his election speeches. While I hold no brief for the chief minister, the same media did praise him a few months ago, when he revealed his plans of tackling encephalitis. It is also on record that Adityanath has visited the college several times since becoming chief minister, the latest being as recently as 9 August, just a day before the tragedy occurred, and reviewed the work on encephalitis in the region. That is more that can be said not just of any MP but also of many national leaders who have been holding on to their family constituencies for generations.

Talk about poor administration, appalling apathy and rampant corruption at government hospitals does not bear repetition. But even private hospitals are no churches, and hospital supplies vendors (even reputed ones) are no saints. More than that, it is a larger malaise afflicting public institutions and not restricted to the Gorakhpur BRD Medical College Hospital alone.

The point here is not to absolve either Adityanath or his government, but to underscore the magnitude of the problem. There is no magic bullet. In the midst of this, as the chief minister stated during his press conference on Sunday, apart from setting up an All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) branch, the state has also requested the Centre for a National Institute of Virology in Gorakhpur. These are long-term solutions.

In the short term, the immediate need is to raise awareness and engage in constructive dialogue cutting across political and ideological lines. People's health cannot be a partisan agenda. Yet it is amazing how little of our national consciousness is invested in "quality of life" issues. We are happy to leave issues like infant mortality to NGOs and international bodies. The entire public discourse today is on merits of introducing alternate medicines. Initiatives such as 'Swachh Bharat', that can indeed reduce the incidence of vector-borne diseases, are met with cynicism by the privileged elite.

Seventy infants dying is indeed a heart-wrenching way of jolting the conscience of a nation. But if we really care, we owe it to those lost lives and their grieving parents, to shun useless debates on diets and songs; to instead raise our voices and participate on issues that affect the underprivileged.

SC judges' rift with CJI: Is Opposition trying to impeach Dipak Misra by fuelling drama around 'rebellion'?

There are many ways to look at last Friday's imbroglio in the Supreme Court. But, like most things in life, the timing of the implosion is significant if not intriguing.

That much was wrong inside the grand premises on New Delhi's Tilak Marg has been a poorly kept secret for long. Corruption in the higher judiciary has been spoken of not only in hushed tones inside chambers and corridors but sometimes even in open court. Eminent lawyers like Ram Jethmalani and Shanti Bhushan have submitted to the reigning chief justices of the day names of retired CJIs and judges who, in their view, would have failed the 'Caesar's wife' test. However, in a closed club of senior counsels and former judges, impeachments have been all too rare.

Similarly, differences and conflicts between judges are not unknown. As eminent barrister Harish Salve pointed out, anyone making it to the highest judiciary of the land would, by definition, have a "robust intellect". Judges, after all, are also human and it would be highly unnatural if strong individuals do not have occasional disagreements.

File image of Chief Justice of India Dipak Misra. PTI

Salve said in his long years of practice he has seen such bouts of tensions from close quarters and as Solicitor General, he was personally privy to quite a few such situations. But, those were always resolved within closed doors among the bench. Surely, there could not have been a unanimous agreement always and at times brother judges would have had to bury their differences in a spirit of "agree to disagree".

A few retired judges like Justice RS Sodhi and Justice Santosh Hegde, who appeared on television, expressed similar views. Unfortunately, this time around, the family linen has tumbled out of the washing machine into the lawns of a judge's residence.

Justice Chelameswar's discomfort with the Collegium precedes the present chief justice (he refused to attend Collegium meetings even in CJI TS Thakur's tenure). The current saga ostensibly began with a letter the four senior judges had written to the chief justice a couple of months ago.

The concerns raised by them were certainly worthy of consideration. But, Justice Dipak Misra is not the first CJI whose administrative decisions have raised eyebrows. There were other CJIs, during the tenure of these four eminent judges in the Supreme Court, who did not have a lily-white reputation.

Not that any of that can be a justification, no specific instances were cited at the press conference at Justice Chelameswar's residence, which can be deemed as posing 'a grave danger to democracy'. It is only after persistent prodding by some journalists and non-journalists (who had gate-crashed into the presser) that Justice Ranjan Gogoi yielded the Judge Loya case had something to do with the impasse. Obviously, more was left unsaid than said, leading to avoidable inferences, insinuations and innuendos.

Sections of the media and a few notable members of the bar were quick to extrapolate that the crisis had arisen out of arbitrary decisions of the chief justice in allotting cases between the various benches. While reluctantly admitting the CJI as 'master of the roster', they hinted that his decisions to assign certain 'sensitive' matters to relatively junior judges were not innocuous.

Among the political parties, quite predictably Congress with its battery of legal eagles came out all guns blazing. Stopping short of accusing the chief justice of acting at the behest of the government, they questioned his prerogatives. It was repeatedly said that he is at best the first among equals with no special powers and can be held accountable even for administrative decisions.

Rahul Gandhi, in an entirely unwarranted intervention, went a step ahead to advise that the senior-most judge of the Supreme Court must hear the Judge Loya case (which many thought was a sheer giveaway of the Congress' game plan). Some loose cannons in the press and from the lawyer fraternity plainly talked of government interference in the Judiciary.

However, to a lay observer, if one were to go by the government's track record in the Supreme Court over the last three years, it has been at the receiving end more often than not.

In fact, "legal management" was never seen as a forte of the Narendra Modi government unlike the Congress, which has historically been a party of lawyers. Therefore, if the BJP government tried to meddle with the courts, it has certainly not been very successful or effective at that.

Dhananjay Mohapatra of The Times of India, one of the most experienced and knowledgeable Supreme Court reporters has compiled a list of cases from the past twenty years to show there is no precedence that "sensitive cases" must go to the senior-most judges. Then, there is also the question of who, or what criterion, determine a case is 'sensitive' or not?

On this too, Salve commented tongue firmly in cheek to a TV Channel reporter: "... you should ask these questions to lawyers who handle matters of national interest and not to me, who deals with cases of petty commercial interest".

This is what makes the timing of the press conference curious. The letter of the judges released to the press was written several weeks ago. So, what exactly precipitated the showdown? Was Justice Loya's case of such tremendous national importance for the judges to take it to the peoples' court or the "nation" as Justice Chelameswar announced?

If that was indeed so – does it not betray a certain predisposition in the minds of the four judges, which itself may have been a reason for the CJI to refer it to another bench.

This is what lends credence to the theory that there was more to it than meets the eye. It is not for this writer to infer if this could be a spillover of the Medical College bribery case, which the CJI had taken away from Justice Chelameswar's court. While Justice Chelameswar would have reasons to be miffed, it is difficult to believe that someone of his stature would have taken it personally to heart. However, the lawyers who were rebuffed did not make any secret of their hostility and, coincidentally, these are the same people who have been most vocal against the CJI over the weekend.

Similarly, it would be tempting to attribute reactions of the Congress to their discomfiture over Justice Misra's order to reopen SIT investigations on the 1984 Sikh riots or his presiding over Ram Janmabhoomi case hearing, that is slated to commence soon. But, that would be entering the realms of speculation, which is best avoided in a legally loaded issue.

However, it is clear from the developments of the last few days that the incumbent CJI is isolated among his colleagues of the Collegium and a certain section of the Bar, who have very clear ideological and political affiliations. This reflects a kind of polarisation that one is seeing in many institutions of the country and here Justice Misra is the quintessential "outsider" in an eco-system that was kept watertight till recently.

A pattern seems to be emerging in which the old empire is trying to repeatedly strike back by rendering institutions dysfunctional through well engineered and orchestrated attacks. Whether the Supreme Court is its latest target can only be a subject of conjecture.

If one were to subscribe to conspiracy theories then this could easily pass as an attempt by elements in the Opposition to impeach by subterfuge since they neither have "justiciable evidence" (as Pratap Bhanu Mehta calls it) nor the numbers in Parliament to move an impeachment motion.

All this while, the chief justice himself has not uttered a single word on the issue and is going on with his court work as usual. The government to its credit has maintained a studied silence, calling it an internal matter of the Judiciary. Barring some unconfirmed report of the prime minister's principal secretary being spotted in a car outside the chief justice's residence, it would appear they have at best left the matter to the attorney general's wisdom and standing in the Judiciary.

It is entirely possible that after the outburst truce will be restored, the crisis will blow over and the judges will return to the bench, as indeed they have done today. But, the earth would have moved a few inches after the weekend tremors.

Armchair demonetisation, GST criticism isn't the worry, Narendra Modi needs a holding strategy till 2019

No sooner than the numbers for Quarter 1 — 2017-18 were announced, a concerted chorus of "I told you so" was heard from the motley cast of Narendra Modi critics waiting in the wings. Adding to the noise was two of BJP's old loose canons, Yashwant Sinha and Arun Shourie, coming out of the scrap yard for some sonic boom test.

Delhi's media eco-system is notoriously contagious. Though winter is still some way off, ever since a senior journalist smelled "something in the air", other members of the capital's elite press-corps have started talking of "hawa-badal".

Predictably, op-eds started appearing and social media chatter became louder about how the prime minister and BJP chief Amit Shah have been put on the back-foot by a resurgent Congress under Rahul Gandhi 2.0. Critics of the government, who had all but given up hope for an opposition comeback in 2019, are excited at spotting rays of a new dawn on the horizon.

By general consensus, the government was widely seen to have faltered on four major counts. It is accused of failing to tackle the over-hang of demonetisation, poor implementation of GST, containing prices and inability to create new jobs. Positive endorsements from the IMF, World Bank, investment bankers and a few contrarian economists were contemptuously dismissed.

The government's response may have sounded a tad defensive but it was heartening to find that neither the prime minister nor the finance minister were in denial. This was evident from Modi's speeches on a couple of occasions, like at The Institute of Company Secretaries and when the prime minister was addressing karyakartas in Gujarat's Gandhinagar the other day.

Even more reassuring to note their resolve to stay the course on economic strategy and not resort to any knee-jerk reactions like fiscal stimulus though it might be politically expedient in view of the forthcoming state elections.

Though the criticisms may be largely valid in theory, the evidence cited in support is primarily a product of armchair analysis in cosy echo chambers of Lutyens' Delhi. In any case, notwithstanding Rahul Gandhi's assertion that he can fix the problems in six months, macro-economic interventions will take more than a couple of quarters to yield results.

In the interim, therefore, Modi requires a "holding strategy" with deft manoeuvring on the ground. It has been argued with some merit that many pain points in demonetisation and GST rollout could have been mitigated if the bureaucracy and tax-administration were better prepared and proactive.

Here, it may be instructive to look at some contrarian insights that this writer, as a roving marketer, has gleaned from trawling the hinterlands.

Let us start with demonetisation as it is considered to be the biggest villain of the piece. There is no denying that demonetisation had worst affected deep rural, where the banking network is least developed. In the cities, small-towns and "rurban" areas, the situation largely settled at a new normal in about eight to twelve weeks, after the initial scurry for "converting" old currency to either new notes or cash in the bank.

A file image of traders protesting against GST. Getty images

Stories of people driven out of jobs and left to starve due to notebandi at best make poor fiction. So far, one has not come across a single vendor or ancillary producer whether from MSMEs or the unorganised sector, whose business was disrupted by a liquidity crisis. The same can be said even of Kirana stores. If they have suffered it was because of demand slow down not shortage of bank notes.

Statistics published since then indicate, all old currency in circulation came back to the system and even deposits in "shell companies" were subsequently withdrawn. A layman may, therefore, ask why should there be a cash crunch in the economy?

One sector that is highly dependent on cash is transportation. Truck drivers have to pay for fuel, toll tax, their own food and lodging on the way all in cash. But, they receive their payments from big consignors always by cheque or bank transfer. Can anyone cite examples of logistics fleet grounded because truck owner did not have money to pay drivers or buy diesel?

The sector that has been worst affected, as per popular perception and perhaps even otherwise, is real estate. But, how much of it is really because of cash? Those familiar with the industry say - the slump is largely because "speculative" investment has gone down and builders are still trying to artificially prop up prices in the hope of a recovery. At the same time, real buyers are staying away expecting a natural market correction and lowering of mortgage rates.

But, a bigger issue that has not received adequate attention is the acute shortage of building materials, sand and gravel, across the country.

This is partly on account of bans imposed by the NGT and new state governments coming down heavily on illegal sand and aggregates mining. States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have been reeling under sand crisis for months now. That is not only affecting residential construction but also infrastructure projects. The bureaucracy remains embroiled in other existential issues of governance to look at such nuts and bolts problems of the economy.

Now, let us move to GST. Unlike demonetisation, though opinion may be divided about the implementation and tax structure of GST, there is no disagreement among experts that GST was the mega tax reform that was long overdue. Considering the gargantuan scale of the exercise, it would have been naïve to expect a totally seamless transition.

The Opposition, on their part, had smelt an opportunity for muddying the waters and waylaying the government on GST. They were, therefore, rooting to push it back by a few months hoping the turmoil would carry through into the next fiscal year damaging BJP's prospects in 2019.

The government certainly anticipated the potential of disruption in the course of implementation. Therefore, Modi and Arun Jaitley put all their weight behind getting GST through by June 2017 so that the major brunt of it could be dealt in the low season of Q2 (July - September) securing the last two quarters of 2017-18 for recovery.

In what turned out to be a battle of nerves, the government stuck to the original deadline. In the process some trade-offs had to be conceded, particularly by way of the multiple tax rates that have come to haunt it far too soon.

But, make no mistakes, it is not something the government would not have anticipated. In a country, where rollbacks are customary, the finance ministry was surely prepared for some corrections along the way. Now, we might see the rationalisation of rates happening sooner than one would have normally expected, possibly, even before the state elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh.

Inflation is arguably the area where Modi government's performance has been the best. This is also largely borne out by statistics. The orchestrated uproar on petrol and diesel prices was a political red herring. There is reason to believe a trader-politician nexus engineered spurt in tomato and onion prices. But, it was well controlled and not allowed to blow up into an "Arhar Modi" kind of crisis like in Bihar, circa 2016. The government's resolve to stay on the path of fiscal discipline indicates it is not going to take chances with inflation and risk a repeat of ABV government's fate in 2004.

In the ultimate analysis, without any doubt, job creation remains the most serious of the four weak spots in Modi's portfolio. But there are no quick fixes for it. The Congress and the UPA bought time on it with doles like MNREGA.

While a higher industrial growth might provide some temporary respite, long-term job creation will come only through the next wave of reforms - especially on the fronts of labour legislations and land acquisition laws. But the government does not have either the time or political capital left for further economic adventures so late into its term. So, "Make in India" will have to wait till 2019 for a real take-off.

What the government cannot certainly afford anymore are governance boo-boos and fiscal adventurism. Narendra Modi has to crack the whip and use his legendary administrative skills to ensure last mile "on-time, in-full" delivery of the many path-breaking social welfare programmes he has introduced and may further launch in the coming months. The benefits of "Direct Benefit Transfer" (DBT) schemes have to be seen and felt by the bona-fide recipients.

Infrastructure projects will have to go on a massive overdrive and schemes like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and Smart-Cities need a massive push.

Of course, there will have to be some pre-election sops and bonanzas for various target constituents - but all of that will need funds that can come only through better revenue mobilisation. It is precisely on this score, getting more people into the direct and indirect tax net, Modi's big gamble on demonetisation and GST may actually bail him out - much to the chagrin of his detractors. However, there has to be a strong whip to tax officers and mandarins in the North Block to eschew pinpricks and harassment of the common man.

The real challenge remaining before the Modi sarkar is governance. With virtually the entire country having gone into election mode, both politicians and bureaucrats are distracted. And, this is true not just for BJP ruled states but non-BJP states too. It is here that Modi's genius in doubling up as a star election campaigner and skills as a CEO par-excellence will be tested to the hilt.

Biz people and industrialists, who have been the most critical about the Modi govt privately, will settle for predictability instead of any tax bonanzas.

The jury may still be out on whether pakodas can create jobs, but the vitriolic reactions the PM’s comment generated would have certainly boosted the sale of Gelusil, figuratively speaking. In all this, the Economic Survey came as a soothing glass of buttermilk.

Ever since it became customary for the government’s chief economic adviser to appear on television after the Economic Survey is placed in Parliament by the finance minister, I do not recall seeing a CEA so excited over the magnum opus he and his team has produced. This exuberance spilled over in one of his tweets, in which he talked about a “Wow moment of epiphanic understanding”. This is remarkable, since Arvind Subramanian was an appointment of the NDA government, and some say he was handpicked by the same gentleman who came down heavily on pakodanomics.

One can polish off endless plates of pakodas debating if 6.5 per cent GDP growth is decent when the global economy seems to be on a comeback trail. However, whether one sees the glass as half full or half empty, the good news from the Economic Survey is that India is in a good place going forward with growth projections pegged at over 7.0-7.5 per cent for the next fiscal year.

Subramanian repeatedly reiterated that the government has been on a path of fiscal consolidation over the last four years, and the problem of twin balance sheets has been all but solved with infusion of funds in public sector banks for NPA haircuts and the bankruptcy code that will bring errant promoters to book by putting their assets on the block.

This underscores two important points. First, the government has been working on a definite budgetary road map for the last four years, which may not have been apparent to all. Having got thus far, the government need not lose nerve and take any rash actions under political provocations triggered by the opposition’s criticism and forthcoming state elections. Instead, it will be better off staying on course. However, being on a reasonably good wicket, it can relax the fiscal deficit target of 3 per cent a little if required.

Though people like P. Chidambaram have always been disparaging about Narendra Modi’s understanding of economics (remember he once said, Modi’s total knowledge of economics can be written on a postage stamp), the government has quietly been working on a two-pronged strategy of enlarging the tax net by increasing the size of the ‘white economy’ and plugging leakages in government schemes and subsidies.

Even before demonetisation and GST, one would recall the Modi government had introduced the nominal 1 per cent tax on jewellery, which had the jewellers up in arms – not because it would increase the price of their goods, but it would make it necessary for them to file returns. It is, therefore, interesting that nearly 15 months after demonetisation, commentators have come around to acknowledging it as a “reform”, if only for bringing more people above ground.

The digital push towards non-cash transactions, with a phenomenal growth of e-wallets and credit/debit card payments, has pushed in he same direction. Boom in e-commerce will only accelerate this trend.

The tale of GST is even more interesting and, therefore, Subramanian could barely hide his joy. Apart from the collateral benefits of transparency which he listed – namely formalisation, inter-firm transactions, tax compliance, GST tax base, state-wise exports, inter-state trade, firm structure of exports – the real icing on the cake has been the number of people who have opted for GST registration without availing the exemptions they were entitled to. This indicates the cost of non-compliance has gone up, and that is encouraging traders and businessmen to come clean.

In an economy as large as India’s, a marginal shift of even 3 per cent to the visible economy can be a game changer. The impact of this will go up exponentially as growth picks up and general income levels rise, which should enable rationalisation of tax rates leading to greater compliance.

On the other front, the Modi government has been working relentlessly on increasing the productivity of government spends on social welfare. The dividends of Direct Benefit Transfer and use of Aadhaar to ensure last-mile delivery does not warrant elaboration.

That brings us to the burning question of job creation. In a country that has so many layers and segments in the economy – it would be naive to expect jobs will come only from the formal sector. In fact, with technology and advent of AI (Artificial Intelligence) etc – so-called “white collar” jobs will shrink and the bulk of employment will have to come through the services and informal sector.

Embedded in the disdain for pakoda sellers is the larger question of dignity of labour. The dream of “sarkari naukri” or “office jobs” militate against the idea of skill development, in which India lags miles behind not only China, but the lesser-developed ASEAN countries. This has been the bane of Bengal, where every parent wants their child to be a doctor, engineer or accountant, and scoffs at any form of business. The result is that today, Mamata Banerjee is actually having to set up “Lyangcha (a form of sweet popular in the Burdawan region) hub”. Soon parents will realise the futility of sending kids to coaching factories in Kota, which is already afflicted with social menace of drugs and sex.

The employment issue will not be solved with a magic wand. Therefore, the first task is income generation and kick-starting investment, while continuing to plan for the long term in a rapidly changing world economic environment.

Finally, as Arun Jaitley gets up to present the Budget Thursday – do we expect fireworks and any big bang? Banking on the mountain of political capital with which it came to power, so far the Modi government has not displayed any signs of diffidence either in its domestic or foreign policies. It has acted with the utmost confidence of coming back for a second innings.

Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the finance minister and the Prime Minister would fritter away the gains of fiscal discipline of the last four years in trying to play to the election gallery. If one may submit, that has not been Narendra Modi’s style even as Chief Minister, and he did not yield to any such temptation for the states that went into elections in the last four years (including Gujarat, which was always a close fight).

The business community and industrialists, who have been the most vocally critical about the Modi government in private party circuits (while making the right noises in public fora) will any day settle for continuity and predictability to any tax bonanzas. They are sharp enough to know that a change of government is likely to throw the country and economy into another five-year tail spin, and by then, many of them would be past their prime and India would well have missed the bus, leaving the next generation stranded.

The middle-class will be happy with minor tax sops, social security and housing. The real challenge is the rural economy, which will look for immediate relief and some cash in hand.

It may be a difficult call to address all issues of agrarian distress in this Budget itself. Neither can it be solved by any sleight of hand. It is for this Arun Jaitley and Narendra Modi may like to keep a rain-check, quite literally so, in case we do not have a good monsoon this year, and the general elections are brought forward to the winter of 2018 – as many expect.

Sandip Ghose is a marketing professional and a popular writer and blogger on politics and current affairs. He tweets @SandipGhose