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/NQ Nasdaq Futures 2nd Price Target Hit +6% Gain

rsotc — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 20:18:59 +0000

/NQ hit the top of my second target (T2 zone) for a quick 6% profit from the recent wedge breakdown/ sell signal. 50/50 on whether we bounce early next week before taking out T2 & dropping to the next target, or taking out this key support as early as Sunday evening when the futures open [...]

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SAP Stop Hit for -8% Loss 10-16-26

rsotc — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 19:59:40 +0000

The SAP (SAP SE) short swing trade hit the suggested stop of 223.45 while I was away from my desk yesterday for an 8% loss. On watch for a new short entry if it can push a little closer to the 235-ish resistance, with the current negative divergences still intact. SAP will now be moved to the Completed Trade archives. Previous & updated daily charts below.

SAP daily Aug 7th

SAP-daily-Oct-12th

SAP daily Oct 16th

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XEL Xcel Energy Swing Trade Idea 10-16-26

rsotc — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 18:54:45 +0000

XEL (Xcel Energy Inc.) offers an objective short entry on this snapback rally to the 76ish price + 200-day MA resistance levels. Price targets (unadjusted) and maximum suggested stop (if targeting T3) on the daily chart below. XEL daily Oct 16th To be clear, this trade currently offers an objective short entry here [...]

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Swing Trade Ideas 10-16-26

rsotc — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 16:12:58 +0000

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CRWD CrowdStrike 2nd Price Target Hit +11% Gain

rsotc — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:23:57 +0000

The CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.) Short Swing Trade has just hit the second price target (T2) for a quick 11% profit, with the next sell signal to come on a solid break below it, with the odds of a reaction off this initial tag of T2 decent, although not necessary. Previous & updated daily charts [...]

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/NQ & /ES Futures 1st Price Targets Hit 10-16-26

rsotc — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 12:26:14 +0000

While I was out of pocket yesterday, /ES (S&P 500 futures) hit the first price target (T1, the intersecting uptrend line + 7726ish price support) after the Oct 7th sell signals (first chart below), followed by the typical reaction/bounce off the initial tag of that price target, with objective re-entries or add-ons to existing shorts anywhere [...]

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UBT Treasury ETF 2nd Price Target Hit +7% Gain

rsotc — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 02:19:47 +0000

The UBT (+2x bullish/long 20-30 yr Treasury bond ETF, or TLT non-leverage 20-30yr T-bond ETF; /ZB 30-yr futures) long swing trade hit the second price target (T2) for a 7% profit today, with the odds for a reaction elevated. For those who booked profits at T2 today, an objective re-entry might come on a pullback [...]

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NKE Nike Buy Signal Triggered 10-15-26

rsotc — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 02:06:43 +0000

The NKE (Nike Inc. Class B) Swing Trade Setup posted back on Aug 19th (first chart below) has triggered the long entry (buy signal) on today's breakout above the bullish falling wedge pattern and is not an Active Long Swing Trade. Previous & updated daily charts below. NKE daily Aug 19th NKE [...]

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SMCI Super Micro 1st Price Target Hit +27% Gain

rsotc — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 01:41:05 +0000

The SMCI (Super Micro Computer Inc.) short swing trade hit the bottom of the first target (T1) zone today while I was out, for a quick (1-week) profit of 27%. Depending on your trading plan, consider booking partial or full profits and/or lowering stops if holding out for any or all of the additional price [...]

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SPCX SpaceX Final Price Target Hit +16% Profit

rsotc — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 15:24:08 +0000

The SPCX (SpaceX) short swing trade has hit the second and final official price target (T2) for a 16% profit & will now be moved to the Completed Trades archives. Previous & updated 60-minute charts below.

SPCX 60m Oct 6th

SPCX 60m Oct 13th

SPCX 60m Oct 15th

Please note that I am currently away from my desk & will reply to any chart questions, chart requests, trade updates, etc., either later today or tomorrow.

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Swing Trade Ideas 10-14-26

rsotc — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 16:52:33 +0000

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BOAT Shipping ETF Swing Trade Idea 10-14-26

rsotc — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 15:42:54 +0000

BOAT (Global Shipping ETF) offers an objective short entry on this break below the minor uptrend line/price channel & rejection off the backtest of the primary uptrend line. Daily chart with price targets and maximum suggested stop (if targeting T3) below. BOAT daily Oct 14th

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APLD Final Price Target Hit 45% Profit 10-14-26

rsotc — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:37:18 +0000

The APLD (Applied Digital Corp) Short Swing Trade has hit the final price target (T2) for a 45% profit. Previous & updated daily charts below.

APLD daily June 10th

APLD daily July 13th

APLD daily July 21st

APLD daily Oct 14th

Based on the fact the stock has fallen to support while oversold with positive divergences, my preference remains to book full profits here, due to the increased odds for a tradable bounce off this level unless the stock market buckles this week and/or next.

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/CL USO Crude Oil Final Price Target Hit 10% Gain

rsotc — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:21:36 +0000

The /CL (crude oil futures or USO, crude ETF) has hit the final price target*, T3, for a 10% profit. While not a new official short trade at this time, a case can be made to reverse (close the long & go short) crude here around the 96.50-98.50ish resistance zone, with potential pullback targets shown on the updated 120-minute chart below. This trade and all associated posts will now be moved to the Complete Trade archives. Previous & updated charts below.

CL 120m Oct 6th

CL 120m Oct 7th

CL 120m Oct 12th

CL 120m Oct 14th

*As always, unless clearly stated as ‘adjusted’ price targets, the levels of price targets listed on the official long trade ideal are the actual resistance levels where a reaction is likely, with adjusted targets accounting for the fact that many securities will reverse just shy of resistance, as sellers often step in early. As always, best to set sell limit orders slightly below the actual resistance level one is targeting.

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Swing Trade Ideas 10-13-26

rsotc — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 21:33:34 +0000

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SPCX SpaceX 1st Price Target Hit +9% Profit 10-13-26

rsotc — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 14:15:31 +0000

The SPCX (SpaceX) Active Short Swing Trade has just hit the top of the first price target zone (T1 zone) for a 9% profit following the precise entry on Oct 6th (the very day the stock peaked) at 172.12. Depending on your trading plan, consider booking partial or full profits and/or lowering stops if holding out for T2. Previous & updated 60-minute charts below.

SPCX 60m Oct 6th

SPCX 60m Oct 13th

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CRWD CrowdStrike Swing Trade Idea 10-12-26

rsotc — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 19:09:53 +0000

Following the recent Evening Star bearish topping formation with a Shooting Star candle at the peak, CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.) will trigger an objective short entry on a break below today's low of 261.23 & the intersecting uptrend line/bearish rising wedge pattern. Daily chart with price targets & maximum suggested stop (if targeting T4) below. [...]

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RSOTC Weekly Recap & TTW 10-12-26

rsotc — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 13:51:33 +0000

BOLO (Be On The Lookout): An email was sent earlier today introducing the new RSOTC Comment Discussion Digest. It includes instructions on how to opt out or adjust your delivery options (Daily or Weekly for Gold members) via your account notification settings.

RSOTC Weekly Recap

Completed & Updated Trades

/CL & USO (Crude Oil): The active long trade hit the first price target (T1) last Wednesday for a quick 4% gain, and just hit the second price target (T2) today for a +7% gain following the recent breakout and successful backtest of the bullish falling wedge pattern.
FEAM: Hit the revised T2 resistance level for an +80% gain. The trade was completely closed out on Wednesday due to the elevated risk of a sharp profit-taking pullback after breaking below a 60-minute bearish rising wedge.
CCL (Carnival Corp): Hit T2 on the daily chart and T1 on the weekly chart for a +26% profit. After the typical reaction bounce, CCL now offers an objective short re-entry on the backtest of the 200-day moving averages and uptrend line.
FLNA (Filana Therapeutics): The aggressive swing trade briefly ticked up to trigger the entry but subsequently failed, hitting the suggested stop for a 5% to 7% beta-adjusted loss (20% unadjusted).

Broad Markets & Indexes

The broader stock market ($SPX, QQQ, IWM) continues to grind sideways with severe internal dispersion. While mega-cap tech props up the averages, deteriorating market internals and widespread negative divergences across multiple timeframes suggest a sharp downside correction is looming.

Intraday /NQ Update: As of the stock market open today, following last week’s breakdown and backtest of the bearish rising wedge pattern on the 120-minute charts, /NQ is currently testing that 20,920 B.O.D. (benefit-of-the-doubt) support level highlighted last week. Taking out this support is required to trigger another wave of selling in the US stock market, with an even more powerful sell signal to come if and when XLF (financial sector ETF) takes out its recent October 1st reaction low of 52.81.
Treasuries: TLT and UBT remain active as critical flight-to-safety hedges against tech index shorts.

Sector Rotation & Defensive Plays

With tech indices looking vulnerable, smart money is actively rotating into defensive, dividend-paying blue chips.

Packaged Foods: This sector is putting in major divergent lows and breaking primary downtrend lines. Highly objective long setups were highlighted in CLX, KHC, GIS, JBS, MKC, HRL, SFD, PPC, CAG, INGR, CPB, MZTI, CENT, JJSF, FLO, and BRBR.
Beverages: PEP was highlighted as a strong defensive bottoming play at long-term support, while KO flashed negative divergences, making it a prime short candidate for mean reversion.

Chinese Equities

Despite broader US market vulnerabilities, several Chinese ETFs and stocks are printing textbook falling wedges with positive divergence, offering highly objective risk-to-reward long entries. Setups were detailed for PGJ, KWEB, FXI, GXC, JD, BIDU, TME, YUMC, LI, XPEV, NIO, and BILI.

Other Notable Setups

Short Setups: SMCI triggered a bearish rising wedge breakdown targeting 29.25. SPCX (SpaceX) offered an objective short entry at resistance while extremely overbought. NFLX remains a macro short at long-term resistance despite a brief tactical 60-minute buy signal.
Commodities: /NG and UNG offered objective long continuation setups following a trendline pullback. /GC (Gold) remains neutral pending a deeper pullback to support, while /SI (Silver) approaches a solid support zone with positive divergence for a potential tactical long.

Things To Watch

Crude Oil Headwinds: The recent breakout and continued rise in /CL towards T2 (and potentially T3) acts as a significant headwind for the stock market. Elevated energy costs will put pressure on equities by exacerbating inflationary concerns.
Key Technical Support Levels: Keep a very close eye on the 20,920 level on /NQ and the 52.81 reaction low on XLF. A definitive break below these levels is the immediate catalyst needed to spark a broader market sell-off and a spike in volatility.
Economic Calendar & Earnings: Watch for any major upcoming economic reports or earnings from market-moving mega-caps this week. Any weakness in consumer spending or forward guidance could easily overpower the AI infrastructure narrative holding up the indexes.
Treasury Yields: The equity market remains hyper-sensitive to the 10-year and 30-year yields. Continued elevation in yields will weigh heavily on overextended growth and tech stocks.

Ticker Summary:

/CL, USO, FEAM, CCL, FLNA, $SPX, QQQ, IWM, /NQ, /ES, XLF, TLT, UBT, CLX, KHC, GIS, JBS, MKC, HRL, SFD, PPC, CAG, INGR, CPB, MZTI, CENT, JJSF, FLO, BRBR, PEP, KO, PGJ, KWEB, FXI, GXC, JD, BIDU, TME, YUMC, LI, XPEV, NIO, BILI, SMCI, SPCX, NFLX, /NG, UNG, /GC, /SI, SMG, SJM, LW, FRPT, LWAY, BGS, BYND, LFVN, HAIN, RKDA, KRE, BABA, NTES, ZTO, HTHT, EDU, YMM, TAL, BZ, GDS, MNSO, LULU, GDX, GLD, FIM, VREOF, KDP, XLP, AGO, SEDV

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/CL USO Crude Oil 2nd Price Target Hit +7% Gain 10-12-26

rsotc — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 13:34:13 +0000

The /CL (crude oil futures or USO, crude ETF) has hit the second price target, T2, for a quick 7% profit. Depending on your trading plan, consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising your stops if holding out for the final price target (T3). Previous & updated 120-minute charts of /CL below.

CL 120m Oct 6th

CL 120m Oct 7th

CL 120m Oct 12th

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Introducing the RSOTC Comment Discussion Digest

rsotc — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 13:09:30 +0000

I’m excited to introduce a new feature for RSOTC members: the Comment Discussion Digest, delivered directly to your inbox.

A significant amount of analysis takes place in the comments beneath posts. I frequently share new trade ideas, updates on existing trades, additional charts, and replies to subscriber questions—both about my own trade ideas and potential setups that members bring to my attention.

The digest will bring selected discussions together in an easy-to-review email, including relevant charts and links back to the original discussions. I believe this will be a valuable addition, especially for members who cannot regularly check the comments throughout the day.

Your options depend on your membership level:

Silver Members: A Weekly Comment Discussion Digest, with delivery planned for around 6:00 pm Eastern on Fridays.
Gold Members: Your choice of a Daily or Weekly Comment Discussion Digest.
Both membership levels: You can opt out, opt back in, or change your available digest preference at any time through your account notification settings.

For the initial rollout, eligible Gold members will be set to Daily and eligible Silver members to Weekly, unless you have already chosen a different available preference or opted out.

How to change your preferences

Visit your account notification settings and look for the Discussion Digest options. Select your preferred frequency—or No Discussion Digests—and save your selection.

Comment Discussion Digest Settings

Discussion Digest preferences are separate from Premium New Post Notifications. You can stop receiving the digest while continuing to receive email notifications when I publish a new post.

To stop only the digest, please use your RSOTC account settings. The unsubscribe link at the bottom of the email unsubscribes that email address from the shared RSOTC mailing audience, including Premium New Post Notifications.

The first digests will be arriving soon. I welcome your feedback and suggestions as we roll out this feature, including thoughts on the content, format, frequency, or anything else that would make it more useful.

Thanks, as always, for your membership and participation in the discussions.

Randy

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China Trade Ideas: ETFs & Stocks 10-9-26

rsotc — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 18:47:02 +0000

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Swing Trade Ideas 10-8-26

rsotc — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 18:12:23 +0000

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CCL Carnival Swing Trade Update 10-8-26

rsotc — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 13:41:13 +0000

After recently hitting the second price target (T2) on the daily chart in concert with T1 on the weekly chart for a +26% profit, the CCL (Carnival Corp.) swing trade had the typical reaction/bounce off the initial tag of those price targets and currently offers an objective short entry or re-entry, for those who booked [...]

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FLNA Filana Stop Hit 5-7% Beta-Adjusted Loss 10-7-26

rsotc — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 20:42:30 +0000

The FLNA (Filana Therapeutics) Swing Trade Setup posted last week briefly ticked as high as 1.04 on low volume on Friday while I was away from my desk. While not an ideal entry due to the non-confirmation of volume followed by the immediate failure of the breakout, for archiving purposes, FLNA will be considered a triggered (active) trade, which then fell to hit the suggested stop of 0.83 for a 20% unadjusted or 5% to 7% beta-adjusted loss (per the 0.25-0.35 suggested beta-adjusted position size). Previous & updated daily charts below.

FLNA daily Oct 1st

FLNA daily Oct 7th

For either those that might have taken the trade & allowed a wider stop and/or those looking for another potential buy signal for this very aggressive, low-price stock, although I would still prefer FNLA to take out Friday’s high of 1.04, which would also get the stock back above the key 1.00 level to help avoid a delisting notice, a buy signal/objective long entry would come on a solid break above this 5-min bullish falling wedge pattern, ideally on above-average volume. I’m only passing this along as an unofficial trade idea for now, in light of the recent failed breakout coupled with the fact that the stock is trading back below 1.00.

FLNA 5m Oct 7th

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SMCI Super Micro Swing Trade Idea 10-7-26

rsotc — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:43:45 +0000

SMCI offers an objective but more aggressive short entry here at the intersecting downtrend line resistance and/or an alternative entry or add-on to a starter position taken here on a break below the uptrend line/ rising wedge pattern. The price targets (unadjusted) and maximum suggested stop (if targeting T4) are shown on the daily chart [...]

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