Rise and Fire

Mr. T's Top 25 Power Rankings (3/8)

2010-03-08T23:07:00.005-05:00

I'm putting these up after St. Mary's thrashing of Gonzaga in the WCC tournament. I've been a tad suspicious of Gonzaga all year, espeically after personally watching them get their asses handed to them by Duke at the Garden in December. I've dropped em to 20th, but I'm sure there are those out there that would think they should be dropped further. Frakly, I'm not ready to jump to that conclusion yet because this is the weakest group of NCAA teams I can ever remember seeing. There are so many mediocre teams out there that I can't necessarily say any team I placed after Gonzaga is any better than them. Does this all even matter with the bracket coming out in a week?

And yes I still have Syracuse over Kentucky because I still think they're the better team with more quality wins.

(Last week's rankings on my ballot in parenthesis)

Kansas (1)
Syracuse (2)
Kentucky (3)
Ohio St. (6)
West Virginia (8)
Duke (5)
Kansas St. (4)
Purdue (9)
Wisconsin (11)
Baylor (14)

Michigan St. (12)

Vanderbilt (13)

Villanova (7)

Tennessee (16)

Georgetown (10)

New Mexico (16)

Butler (17)

Pittsburgh (18)

Maryland (25)

Gonzaga (11)

Temple (20)

Xavier (24)

Marquette (21)

Texas A&M (25)

Brigham Young (23)

Dropped from the rankings: None

Mr. T's Top 25 Power Rankings (3/1)

2010-03-01T14:04:00.003-05:00

The AP and Coaches polls have spoken and have made Syracuse the #1 overall team in the country. I'm not as heated about that as I am seeing New Mexico at #8 in the AP poll, but I don't agree myself. Since neither team has very high quality non-conference wins, you have to look at their losses and their conference strength. Kansas' both losses were on the road, while Cuse's two losses were at home. The quality of the losses (Tennessee and Oklahoma St. for Kansas vs. Pittsburgh and Louisville for Cuse) are basically the same. Finally, the Big 12 is a better conference this year top to bottom. The Big East may have more elite teams, but they also have a lot more garbage sitting at the bottom of the conference.

(Last week's rankings on my ballot in parenthesis)

Kansas (1)
Syracuse (3)
Kentucky (2)
Kansas St. (5)
Duke (6)
Ohio St. (8)
Villanova (7)
West Virginia (9)
Purdue (4)
Wisconsin (11)

Gonzaga (12)

Michigan St. (13)

Vanderbilt (14)

Baylor (15)

Georgetown (10)

New Mexico (20)

Butler (21)

Tennessee (16)

Pittsburgh (14)

Temple (22)

Marquette (24)

Maryland (25)

Brigham Young (18)

Xavier (NR)

Texas A&M (NR)

Dropped from the rankings: Texas (19) and Richmond (23)

Mr. T's Top 25 Power Rankings (2/22)

2010-02-22T06:09:00.003-05:00

It's rather amazing how nutty the college basketball season is this year. There are so many damn teams that seem to lose every week. Take a look at the heart of my rankings to see how many teams lost this week: Villanova, Ohio St., West Virginia, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Michigan St., Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Baylor, and Texas. I know there's no logic in college basketball, but that's just ridiculous. It's also amazing how Pittsburgh has responded from a midseason lapse to come back strong. There are very few teams in the country as productive as Pittsburgh with less talent. Finally, I'd like to give Kentucky some props for making it through a tough week. They're definitely earning their stripes.

My rankings are also being posted after the AP poll came out, so I have a comment there. There's no way New Mexico is the 10th best team in the country. If they played Georgetown or Michigan State in a 10 game series, do you think they win a majority of those games? Neither do I. I know the Mountain West Conference is strong, but that's just stupid.

(Last week's rankings on my ballot in parenthesis)

Kansas (1)
Kentucky (2)
Syracuse (3)
Purdue (5)
Kansas St. (6)
Duke (9)
Villanova (4)
Ohio St. (7)
West Virginia (6)
Georgetown (5)

Wisconsin (13)

Gonzaga (14)

Michigan St. (8)

Pittsburgh (19)

Vanderbilt (14)

Tennessee (18)

Baylor (15)

Brigham Young (17)

Texas (16)

New Mexico (20)

Butler (21)

Temple (23)

Richmond (25)

Marquette (23)

Maryland (NR)

Dropped from the rankings: Wake Forest (24)

Mr. T's Top 25 Power Rankings (2/15)

2010-02-15T18:49:00.003-05:00

I only truly understand how difficult it is to put together a Top 25 now that I'm actually putting one together every week. I still see a clear top three, with eight other really competitive, yet flawed teams. After that it's a complete crap shoot. The bottom of the rankings continue to fluctuate as different teams play themselves in and out. I dropped Maryland from the rankings because that game at Duke was just too embarrassing.

(Last week's rankings on my ballot in parenthesis)

Kansas (1)
Kentucky (3)
Syracuse (2)
Villanova (4)
Purdue (9)
Kansas St (7)
Ohio St (10)
Michigan St. (8)
Duke (11)
Georgetown (5)

West Virginia (6)

Gonzaga (14)

Wisconsin (13)

Vanderbilt (19)

Baylor (18)

Texas (16)

Brigham Young (20)

Tennessee (12)

Pittsburgh (24)

New Mexico (NR)

Butler (NR)

Temple (23)

Marquette (NR)

Wake Forest (NR)

Richmond (NR)

Dropped from the rankings: Maryland (15), Georgia Tech (17), Missouri (21), UNLV (22), Florida St. (25)

Mr. T's Top 25 Power Rankings (2/8)

2010-02-08T18:45:00.001-05:00

Here's my Rivalry Week column for BroBible.com.

Mr. T's Top 25:

Kansas
Syracuse
Kentucky
Villanova
Georgetown
West Virginia
Kansas St
Michigan St
Purdue
Ohio St

Duke

Tennessee

Wisconsin

Gonzaga

Maryland

Texas

Georgia Tech

Baylor

Vanderbilt

Brigham Young

Missouri

UNLV

Temple

Pittsburgh

Florida State

Mr. T's Top 25 Power Rankings (2/1)

2010-02-01T12:52:00.006-05:00

After having withdrawals from writing about college basketball (the James Harden piece from last year is one of my favorites of all time), I decided to get back on the wagon with a weekly Top 25 Power Rankings and a twitter account (MrTRiseAndFire - I'll be lighting up a storm on there) for the time being. We'll see if this ever gets picked up by BroBible for the long term, but it'll reside here for the time being. After the power rankings I'll list out some thoughts from a weekend of hoops.

There are four teams that are clearly better than anyone else right now. There there's another five that are pretty good. Everyone else is extremely capable crapping the bed on any given night.

Kansas
Syracuse
Villanova
Kentucky
Michigan St.
Georgetown
West Virginia
Kansas St.
Purdue
Ohio St.
Texas
Duke
Baylor
Georgia Tech
Tennessee
Gonzaga
Vanderbilt
Missouri
Wisconsin
Brigham Young
Temple
Florida State
Mississippi St.
Clemson
Maryland

It's time to stop giving Connecticut and North Carolina credit for their history when their play on the floor has been abysmal. Needless to say I'm basking in the fact that both teams are putting up highly inferior seasons.

I came away from Saturday night's battle in Manhattan with two thoughts. It was nice to see Kansas hold on despite Marcus Morris (I knew Collins and Aldrich could play, but damn Marcus can ball too) fouling out and Sharon Collins dealing with injuries. It showed that have some moxie. Secondly, Kansas State deserves some respect for hanging tough. Their frontcourt isn't well known, but they're better than you think. With the experienced guard play of Clemente and Pullen, they could make a deep run in March. If not for a couple silly lane violations, this might've been their victory.

What happened to Kyle Singler's shot? I know he's got a busted thumb, but he's been terrible this year. He won't be able to go pro after this year's showing and will have to come back to be the glue in a much more formidable team next year that will include Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry, the Plumlees, and incoming freshmen Kyrie Irving and Joshua Hairston. Most importantly deadweight Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek will have graduated.

I wish Greg Monroe had more of a killer instinct because he's always the most talented dude on the floor and is dominant when he wants to be. If he gets a fire lit under his ass with Wright and Freeman playing as well as they are, Georgetown could be Final Four bound in March.

Not that I was ever really on board, but I'm fully off the Texas bandwagon at this point. They've got no leadership in the backcourt and Damion James is lacks the ability to win big games by himself. The Longhorns have now lost all three of their biggest games in conference. Rick Barnes has never been considered a rocket scientist (at this point I'm not sure whether or not he's qualified to pick up dog shit), but this coaching job is a waste of all the talent he's supposed to have. Nothing I've seen of Avery Bradley has impressed me at all. After watching how John Wall takes over games, you would never believe Bradley was almost on Wall's platform coming out of high school.

While it was nice for Baylor to grab their win against Texas, it was more that Texas lost the game rather than Baylor won it. I had hope that Tweety Carter would be able to carry the Bears once LaceDarius Dunn fouled out, but he made way too many careless plays against the press. Without some dumb luck, Baylor would've lost this game.

If I told you Patrick Patterson took only seven shots against Vanderbilt, you'd think Kentucky had lost the game. It's been a weird transition for the Wildcats as they've entered conference play since Demarcus Cousins has taken over as the primary low post option. It's obviously good for Kentucky to diversify their scoring options, but will Patterson keep his mouth shut just to win the title? We shall see...

Ohio State is fun to watch when they're playing at their best. They lack depth and Turner doesn't think like a PG in key situations (see West Virginia game), so there are still some Final Four red flags. They, however, can beat anyone on a given day.

The end of the Florida vs. Tennessee game proved neither team (or coach) knew what they were doing, but Florida ended up losing because of the youth in the backcourt.

Maryland played about as badly as they could've and still beat Clemson. That has to say something, but consider me somewhat doubtful over how good the Terrapins (and the ACC as a whole) really is. Everyone loves to be on Grevis Vasquez's nuts, but how does a senior PG turn the ball over nine times??

Final Four Time

2009-04-04T17:10:00.003-04:00

Sadly we only have three games left in the season, but emotions should be positive on Final Four Saturday. UNC is the favorite to win it all and everyone's pushing for the UConn vs. UNC final. I don't see things being any different unfortunately, but anything could happen and if I had to pick one, it'll be Villanova. All plays are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Connecticut -4.5 vs. Michigan St. (Two units)
Villanova +7 vs. North Carolina

Record: 90-91 on units (73-73-1 on selections)
Bank: $160.32

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Midweek Fill

2009-03-31T18:51:00.002-04:00

There are two obvious statements to make at this point in the season. There's a six-day period before the next game in the NCAA Tournament and we've only got 3 NCAA Tournament games yet to play. Put those together and we've got a nice set of NIT games to play tonight. All plays are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Notre Dame -4 vs. Penn State
San Diego St. +1 vs. Baylor

Record: 90-89 on units (73-71-1 on selections)
Bank: $170.32

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Boom Goes Sooner

2009-03-29T14:59:00.002-04:00

In the middle of fantasy baseball draft paradise, there's no analysis like yesterday. Instead we're fading Oklahoma with two units on UNC -7 today. Carolina is deep, Oklahoma is not. Carolina has Ty Lawson, Oklahoma does not. Carolina has four guys to throw at Blake Griffin, Oklahoma isn't deep. UNC is roling and I don't see Oklahoma getting in their way. Besides, do we really think Crocker is gonna go nuts from outside again?

Record: 88-89 on units (72-71-1 on selections)
Bank: $161.22

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Is All Hope Lost?

2009-03-28T15:59:00.004-04:00

I didn't get a chance to touch on it yesterday, but Memphis' loss to Missouri was incredibly heartbreaking for Rise and Fire's leader. I had Memphis winning my main bracket in five of six pools, a nice futures bet on them at 30-1 from January, and the other futures listed as fund plays. I've got slim chances of winning money in those pools now with that bracket, but a good chance at winning other pools with secondary entries.

Missouri's aggressive defense was never going to be an easy task for Memphis, but the way Missouri's offense cut up the formidable Memphis defense was the real killer. You have to tip your hat to Missouri for playing about as well as they could have. In another Sweet 16 games, Gonzaga fell flat on their face as expected. They were never a blog favorite and proved why in last night's embarrassment. The quality of the Sweet 16 games as a whole haven't been that high. Only two games have been competitive and numerous teams put in a disappointing effort.

In Saturday's first Elite 8 contest Connecticut will look to ride the dominant wave that has carried them so far. Missouri's press shouldn't affect UConn as much as it affected Memphis because the Huskies have three natural ball handlers in Price, Walker, and Austrie. Robinson can help out as well which is why I like UConn -5.5 vs. Missouri. The second game presents a Big East slugfest between Villanova and Pittsburgh. Nova has been playing over their heads a bit as I expected them to win, but not be this dominant. Pitt needs to get scoring from other players besides the big three of Fields, Young, and Blair and I expect they will as I play one unit on Pittsburgh -2 vs. Villanova.

Record: 87-88 on units (71-70-1 on selections)
Bank: $161.67

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Sweet 16 Friday Quick Picks

2009-03-27T18:56:00.000-04:00

It's a quick stop between work and the bar for the games, but here's what we're going with tonight. Picks are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Syracuse +1 vs. Oklahoma
North Carolina -7.5 vs. Gonzaga (Two units)
Michigan St. -1.5 vs. Kansas

Record: 84-87 on units (69-69-1 on selections)
Bank: $152.38

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

The Longest 96 Hours

2009-03-26T18:58:00.006-04:00

I started jonesing the minute Louisville wrapped things up against Siena. 96 hours later, we've finally returned for more basketball. I got the sour taste of Arizona State out of my mouth with a strong finish to the weekend. While tonight only carries four games for betting purposes, the quality of the actual games should be far superior to anything we've seen so far. All picks are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Purdue +6.5 vs. Connecticut
Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Xavier
Villanova ML (+115) vs. Duke (Two units)

Adding:
Pittsburgh -6.5 2nd half vs. Xavier (Two units)

Still floating:
Pac 10 Team wins over 6.5 +110
Memphis more wins thank Duke -150 (Three units)
Memphis to make Final Four +250 (Three units)

Record: 80-81 on units (67-65-1 on selections)
Bank: $161.78

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

James Harden was Paid Off

2009-03-24T14:27:00.002-04:00

I've had 48 hours to calm down, but the feelings are still very strong. Something happened that caused James Harden to play like an NBDL player over the last weeks of his NCAA career. Harden is supposed to be a top five pick in this year's NBA draft, but you wouldn't know it if you only caught the last three games of Arizona State's season.

Let's start with Saturday, March 14th when ASU took on USC in the Pac-10 final. The Sun Devils were sitting on a comfortable 15-point half time lead and all looked well. USC came out with a second half press that threw off ASU's typically methodical offense. Whether it was PG Derek Glasser's lack of confidence or coach Herb Sendek's direction, James Harden started bringing the ball up the floor. With a couple well placed turnovers here and poor shots there, USC was on their way to an epic comeback. The game rested in the balance when Harden twice took the ball to the basket, leading to one off-balanced layup attempt and one offensive foul. Who knew I'd be calling for some of that aggression a week later, but we'll get to that. Harden's blunders were too much for his teammates to overcome, but it's hard to do anything when your best player decides to be the selfish aggressor. Maybe Harden was attempting to compensate for his measly nine points in his team's biggest game of the season to date. Maybe he was trying to get to the line more than his two previous attempts, a number which was his second lowest since January. Or maybe there was another reason...

Harden's 1 for 8 shooting against Temple in the first round of the NCAA Tournament was inconsequential because it was only Temple and the Sun Devils controlled most of the game. The second round game against Syracuse, however, was not a game ASU could afford Harden to be absent from. Yet at halftime, the Sun Devils were down nine points and there sat James Harden with a first half bagel. Four shots were all Harden took in the first half, all from the same spot at the top of the circle. How could a player known for his slick drives to the basket be relegated to jump shots from the perimeter? Should a coach have to remind his best player, the top five draft pick, that he might be playing in his last college game? I think not. Everyone knows ASU's fate rested in the hands of their best player, except Small Game James looked as if he had partied too hard in South Beach the night before. Or maybe there was another reason...

Some may call me bitter, but I'm actually going to go as far as to say that I'm stupid. I pride myself on the "eye test" with teams and ASU failed miserably in that category when I watched them in the second half of the Pac-10 final. ASU had looked sharp at multiple points in the season, but that second half screamed out for the team to be devalued. My memory was too short when a couple days later I advanced them to the Elite Eight in my bracket. The efficiency numbers were good, the opponents in their region weren't as strong as the opponents for other #6 seeds in other regions, and they should've been motivated after the Pac-10 disappointment. This was a team was poised to make a run with their effective zone defense, proficient three-point shooting, and Wooden Award candidate. Unfortunately they ran into a Syracuse team that was playing too well to be defeated. Or maybe there was another reason...

James Harden was paid off.

The Best Seven Hours on TV

2009-03-22T11:25:00.003-04:00

Maybe it's a little bit of a stretch, but it's hard to argue that today marks a great seven hours of college basketball. The four game slate between 2:20pm and 5:00pm is going to be frantic and exhilerating to watch. I'm still shaping up well in the bracket pools, but there's a lot riding on Arizona St. today. All picks are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Arizona St. +2.5 vs. Syracuse (Two units)
Xavier -3 vs. Wisconsin (Two units)
Louisville -11.5 vs. Siena
Missouri -3 vs. Marquette (Two units)
Kansas -8 vs. Dayton
Oklahoma St. +9.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Added:
Pittsburgh/OSU Under 82 in 2nd Half (Two units)

Record: 73-78 on units (62-63-1 on selections)
Bank: $144.93

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Brackets Don't Equal Bets

2009-03-21T12:30:00.005-04:00

After the first two days of the NCAA tournament, I sit at 26/32 and in good position in the pool standings. It's probably the best position I've been in after the first day in years. Yet, despite this good work on the bracket, the bets don't seem to be falling. There's still plenty of time left in the tournament, but it'd be nice to have a day where I went on a little run. It's not like we're in the middle of February. Eventually the fund will need to overcome the vig. Games are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Villanova -2.5 vs. UCLA
Memphis -9 vs. Maryland (Two units)
LSU +11.5 vs. UNC
Michigan +7.5 vs. Oklahoma (Two units)
Purdue +1.5 vs. Washington

Record: 69-75 on units (59-61-1 on selections)
Bank: $141.73

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Freaky Friday?

2009-03-20T11:22:00.006-04:00

Despite yesterday being the first day of March Madness, there wasn't much madness to be seen. The only real upsets (excluding 8/9 matchups because it's usually a coin flip) were Michigan/Clemson and WKU/Illinois and those weren't exactly jaw dropping. Last year's first day brought the same result with the only upset being USC over Kansas St., but that wasn't jaw dropping either. Then on Friday the sky fell with Davidson over Gonzaga, Western Kentucky over Drake, San Diego over Connecticut, Siena over Vanderbilt, and Villanova over Clemson. Will the same thing happen today? Gus Johnson is broadcasting the games in Minnesota, so look for NDSU, Dayton, USC, or Robert Morris to pull an upset in the Twin Cities.

Today's picks are below and are one unit plays unless otherwise dictated.

Marquette -4.5 vs. Utah State (Two units)
North Dakota St. +10 vs. Kansas (Three units)
Ohio St. -3.5 vs. Siena (Two units)
USC -2.5 vs. Boston College (Two units)
Wisconsin +2.5 vs. Florida St.
West Virginia -9 vs. Dayton
Oklahoma St. +2 vs. Tennessee

Added:
Arizona +105 ML vs. Utah (to win two units - covering the MWC wins bet)

Record: 64-69 on units (55-57 on selections)
Bank: $147.69

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Explaining My Bracket

2009-03-19T12:01:00.007-04:00

Now that it is 12:01pm and all bracket entries are locked, I will explain the selections for my bracket. Yes, that might make me look like an ass because I didn’t want to reveal everything, but if you’ve read the blog all year my thoughts should be pretty evident. I’ll break down some selection thoughts by region and then give a Final Four summary. I preface all the commentary by saying a few words. I’ve watched more college basketball this year than ever before. If you ask me about most teams in this tournament, I’ll be able to give you a summary. I won last year’s pool, which reinforced my knowledge I was able to amass. I won not cause of the luck of the four #1 seeds, but because I was strong enough early on and I saw something in Kansas that few others saw. I feel good about my opinions on the bracket, but it’s March and that means anything can happen.

East Region:
I’ve liked Pitt all year, so my choice of them should be pretty obvious. Villanova has the ability to take advantage of Duke’s weaknesses. Nova attacks the rim, hits the offensive boards hard, and can drain threes. Duke will get to the Sweet 16 without issues because neither Texas nor Minnesota is a threat. The pick of Xavier to the Sweet 16 is about being risk averse since FSU/Wisconsin is a toss-up. I chose Wisconsin in that game because I think their slow offensive style and defensive effort will frustrate FSU. Oklahoma St. should beat Tennessee because they’re similar teams with OSU being able to hit threes. Texas beats Minnesota because Minnesota isn’t the same team away from home and they have trouble scoring.

South Region:
I was really hoping for better talent in this bracket. In my opinion, it holds the weakest #2, #3, #4, and #5 seeds. UNC should stroll to the Final Four assuming Ty Lawson has half a toe. The real question is: who will they face to get there? I see Clemson posing a threat to Oklahoma because Missouri showed Oklahoma struggles against the press. I’m taking a shot with Clemson because they could fall to the slow pace of Michigan in the first round, but you need to take some chances. I have Syracuse losing to Arizona St. because I think ASU’s zone and methodical offense will keep the game at a slow pace, which favors them. The real painful decision was ASU over Clemson because I watched ASU completely self-destruct against USC’s pressing defense in the Pac 10 final. That pick is more about ASU having a better chance not to lose. WKU should beat an Illinois team without Frazier. LSU/Butler is a tossup and I’m taking the best player on the floor in Marcus Thornton.

Midwest Region:
Louisville has a pretty easy ride. The only team I see challenging them is Wake Forest, but Wake has shown the tendency to fall asleep. I went with the risk averse selection (notice a pattern yet?). Siena might’ve played a bunch of teams in non-conference play, but they didn’t beat any of them, so I took Ohio St. Arizona might not deserve to be in, but now that they are, they have three very talented dudes who might be too much for Utah. You should know my thoughts on West Virginia by now. I wish the bottom half had a stronger team, but I went with Michigan St. because they have the easier road to travel and more experience than Kansas.

West Region:
Connecticut is the most vulnerable #1 seed. With that in mind, this is my only non-chalk Final Four selection. The Memphis Tigers should be no surprise because I’ve been high on them since they trounced Gonzaga. Both Purdue and Washington could be upset in the first round, so I went with Purdue to the Sweet 16 because I think they have less chance of being upset and better perimeter play than Washington. Missouri will struggle running half-court sets against Memphis’ #1 defense. I’m 90% certain that Marquette won’t crap the bed in the first round because of their senior leadership. California and BYU have too much perimeter game for their opponents in round one.

Final Four:
This is where the rubber hits the road. I went with the two teams in the final who I’ve been backing for the last two months. Louisville’s guard play should catch up to them eventually and I don’t like Carolina’s mental makeup or coaching. Memphis takes home the title because they have the athletes to compete with Blair and Young. Fields will struggle with the quicker and stronger Evans. Memphis takes home the title and makes Mr. T a defending champion.

At least that’s how I dreamt it up last night. Let’s play ball!

My Religion's Christmas

2009-03-19T11:02:00.005-04:00

Quick picks for the first day of the tournament. I'll get the overall #s up later. All picks are worth one unit unless otherwise stated.

BYU -2 vs. Texas A&M
California -1.5 vs. Maryland (Two units)
VCU +8 vs. UCLA
Western Kentucky +5 vs. Illinois
MWC Team wins over 1.5 +170 (Two units)
Pac 10 Team wins over 6.5 +110
Memphis more wins thank Duke -150 (Three units)
Memphis to make Final Four +250 (Three units)

Record: 62-66 on units (53-55 on selections)
Bank: $153.59

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

West Region Preview

2009-03-18T14:31:00.002-04:00

As we approach the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, Mr. T will preview one region each day.

The Favorite: Connecticut - UConn was cruising on its way to the Final Four until Jerome Dyson broke his foot and the Huskies have been 4-3 in his absence. UConn's strength is on the interior, unless they're playing Pitt, which wouldn't happen until the title game. Thabeet, Adrien, and Robinson will step to anyone. A.J. Price is frothing at the mouth to make up for the torn ACL that killed UConn's hopes last year. There are few lead guards better at getting their shots than that guy. Dyson's injury has weakened the perimeter defense, which in turn leads to more drives and more fouls in the frontcourt. Lacking the three-point shooter of successful teams past, UConn will have to hope the magic of Arizona brings them out of the regional as it did in '99 and '04.

The Main Challenger: Memphis – After stumbling through non-conference play, Memphis moved Tyreke Evans to the point and has never looked back. While not a prototypical PG, Evans has a strong handle of the ball and has shown good decision making thus far. Despite playing in a weak conference, Memphis showed their prowess in an 18-point demolishing of Gonzaga in a semi-road game. Their athletes are as good as any team in the country and there's still a lot of talent despite losing Rose and Douglas-Roberts from last year's team. During the last three years people have knocked Memphis for playing in a weak conference and all three years they've advanced to at least the Elite Eight. Why should this year be any different?

The Sleeper: Purdue - With Robbie Hummel finally healthy, Purdue looks like the top 10 team they were assumed to be in the preseason. While the point guard play is a notch below high quality levels, the other pieces on the court are talented. JaJuan Johnson has come into his own as an interior presence, Robbie Hummel has a wide ranging skill set, and the guards can all shoot and defend. Beating UConn won't be an easy task, but they couldn't ask for a more vulnerable #1 seed.

First Round Upset: Mississippi State - I'm not sure I see a first round upset in this region, but MSU has the best chance. A team that was expected to contend for the SEC this year is playing with loads of confidence after winning the SEC Tournament. Varnado protects the inside with four gunners around him. Washington has a young point guard in Isaiah Thomas, who might not be able to handle the bright lights.

Midwest Region Preview

2009-03-17T17:28:00.003-04:00

As we approach the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, Mr. T will preview one region each day.

The Favorite: Louisville - As Louisville started piling up wins in conference play, they were continually discredited because of their lack of guard play. Now that they've won both the Big East regular season and tournament, no one seems to care and for good reason. Louisville's pressing defense will wear you down, especially in the second game in three days. None of the guards will wow you, but they rotate enough guys for someone to be effective on a given night. The strength is at forward with the senior Williams doing everything the team needs on a given night. They're not the best foul shooting team, so remember how that did in Memphis last year. Louisville was ranked third in the preseason AP poll and they've finally worked out the kinks in rising to the #1 spot in the country. Did they peak too early?

The Main Challenger: Michigan State – Tom Izzo coached teams deserve respect and these Spartans are no different. On paper, their team has all the pieces for a Final Four run. They've got the explosive point guard who can score and distribute, they rebound well, and their offense isn't reliant on only one or two players. But can you take a team seriously if they lost by 25 to UNC early on in a semi-home game? MSU has a tendency to drift from their offensive game plan, which involves playing inside out, on many occasions, although Izzo should have them more focused at this time of year. They're flying under the radar now and that's when MSU has done better in recent years.

The Sleeper: Wake Forest - Wins over UNC, BYU, and Duke prove that Wake Forest has the ability to beat anyone. Their one major weakness is three-point shooting, as they don't have a hired gun on the roster. Zone defenses could prove to be an issue, but Louisville's zone comes with a full court press in front of it. Wake's shown they can beat a press with their two wins against Clemson. Aminu and Johnson give the Demon Deacons extra ball handlers at the forward spots. Jeff Teague likes a challenge and has shown he can take over a game.

First Round Upset: North Dakota State - While I like NDSU more from a betting perspective than a bracket perspective, the thought of them pulling off an upset against a young Kansas team isn't unrealistic. The Bison start four seniors, can make threes, and is good from the foul line. Bill Self is not the best Xs and Ox coach and his teams have had disastrous first rounds previously. Last year's National Championship might be more a product of the upperclassmen leadership than coaching.

South Region Preview

2009-03-16T14:16:00.004-04:00

As we approach the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, Mr. T will preview one region each day.

The Favorite: North Carolina - Who knew that a toe could determine whether or not a team wins the national championship? Ty Lawson's toe injury is the biggest injury-related story of this year's tournament because he's the straw that stirs the drink for North Carolina. Without Lawson in the ACC Tournament, North Carolina was unable to play at their usual high pace in transition. They also lacked Lawson's leadership and penetration ability with the game on the line. If Lawson is anything other than 100%, UNC's chances for a national title take a major hit. For what it's worth, Greg Anthony thinks it'll be tougher for Lawson to cut on an ill-feeling toe. As far as their opponents go, UNC got a relatively easy bracket.

The Main Challenger: Oklahoma – The Blake Griffin led Sooners have to be a little disappointed with their seeding. Before Griffin's concussion, the Sooners looked like they were sitting pretty with a #1 seed in their sights. They've suffered two losses in their last three games and suddenly look a little less formidable. The difference in seeding becomes apparent with the possible second round matchup against Clemson. Clemson has the athletes and pressing style that could cause Oklahoma trouble. If they can get through that, the Elite Eight will still be tough to come by. They'll have to ramp things up on the defensive end to even get to a projected matchup against North Carolina.

The Sleeper: Arizona State - I'm still getting over the ASU letdown in the second half of Saturday's Pac 10 final against USC. USC turned up the defensive pressure by running a full court press and the Sun Devils fell apart. James Harden looked more like a bashful freshman than the cool sophomore we've grown to love. Will ASU recover? Their zone defense should help them control the pace of games and they've got enough offensive weapons to make a run if they don't get rattled.

First Round Upset: Western Kentucky – Most people should remember Western Kentucky's miracle shot to beat Drake in the 1st round. Those memories will lead to this predicted upset in a lot of brackets, but the reality is there to fulfill the dream. Illinois showed against Purdue how dysfunctional they become when Chester Frazier isn't on the floor. While WKU doesn't have Courtney Lee anymore, they have many players returning from last year's team and a resume win over Louisville to prove their legitimacy.

East Region Preview

2009-03-16T00:12:00.004-04:00

As we approach the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, Mr. T will preview one region each day.

The Favorite: Pittsburgh – The Panthers have been one of my favorite teams to watch all year. They play a consummate team game, they hit the boards hard, and they have three guys (Fields, Young, and Blair) who are reliable when the game is on the line. They lack a genuine outside shooter, but there are plenty of players who have the ability to shoot from outside. Don’t get worried about the loss to West Virginia. I’m convinced they didn’t give 100% because their eyes are on the national tournament title and not the Big East tournament title this year. Their trip to Detroit will only be derailed if the opponent manages to get DeJuan Blair in foul trouble. Villanova was able to do it once before, can they do it again?

The Main Challenger: Villanova – Nova fell flat on their face in the second half of Friday’s contest with Louisville. They shouldn’t feel too bad because that’s happened to everyone Louisville has taken on in the last two months. The Wildcats have the benefit of playing two home games in Philly before a possible matchup with a Duke team that’s known to be a little soft. That’s just how Jay Wright’s team likes em.

The Sleeper: UCLA – The East shapes up as a pretty weak bracket with not too many teams that I’m in favor of. Is it possible to call a team that has made four straight Final Fours a sleeper? The Bruins have tournament experience and as good a coach as there is out there. If they can beat Nova, in what amounts to a semi-road game, and Duke, wouldn’t that matchup between Howland and his former team be quite newsworthy?

First Round Upset: Portland State – Xavier has only won half of its last ten games and Portland State has the resume win of Gonzaga on the road. I’m not sure I’m fully on board, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled it off.

Treading Water

2009-03-14T11:10:00.007-04:00

There's nothing like betting 11 games over the course of the day and seeing the results split down the middle heading into the last game. I went to bed late, woke up early, and want nothing to do other than lay on my couch and enjoy basketball today. For those reasons, here's another set of quick picks that may or may not be added to as the day goes on. As always, bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Auburn +4 vs. Tennessee
Ohio St. +8 vs. Michigan St.
Missouri -5 vs. Baylor (Two units)
LSU -3.5 vs. Mississippi St. (Two units)
Arizona St. -1.5 vs. USC
Memphis -14.5 vs. Tulsa (Two units)
Purdue -3.5 vs. Illinois

Record: 56-62 on units (49-52 on selections)
Bank: $146.29

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Too Much Chalk

2009-03-13T12:53:00.005-04:00

After getting excited about all the chalk in the Big East Tournament yesterday, we saw a couple of upsets and Marquette almost grabbed a third. Because of that it was a poor day for the fund. I've definitely found myself taking too many favorites lately, which basically equates me to Joe Public. I'm gonna try to look for some value in underdogs for later games, but right now I'm getting up the early day picks. Consider this post to be everchanging as it will be updated throughout the day with bets. All bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

LSU -1 vs. Kentucky
Wisconsin -2.5 vs. Ohio State
Auburn +3.5 vs. Florida
UCLA -6 vs. USC (Two units)
Purdue -7 vs. Penn State
West Virginia -6.5 vs. Syracuse (Two units)
Arizona State -0 vs. Washington (Two units)
Xavier -4.5 vs. Temple
Villanova +4.5 vs. Louisville
Missouri -4.5 vs. Oklahoma St.
Michigan +2.5 vs. Illinois

Record: 51-55 on units (44-46 on selections)
Bank: $157.49

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

Straight Chalk

2009-03-12T14:29:00.004-04:00

So far we've seen straight chalk in the Big East Tournament. All top eight seeds advanced to the quaterfinals (though some got the double bye into that round). One of those chalk wins came from Syracuse last night. As we've talked about before, Syracuse has the ability to run as well as any team in the country. Seton Hall couldn't impart any kind of their own style on Syracuse. They're too undisciplined. Add in some energy after the melee in the second half and Syracuse went charging ahead. Mr. T was happy to see his two unit fund selection be successful.

Today we're shooting for the stars with another busy day of conference tournament play. It's three units on Connecticut -4.5 vs. Syracuse. UConn will not let Cuse run. Also we like one unit on Villanova -2.5 vs. Marquette, Washington -5.5 vs. Stanford, and Oklahoma -4.5 vs. Oklahoma State.

Record: 50-51 on units (43-43 on selections)
Bank: $172.44

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.