Risk and Safety Blog

Ancient Japanese Text Contained a Warning for 2011 Fukushima Disaster

Dr. Saraf — Thu, 11 Mar 2021 14:22:01 +0000

Nihon Sandai Jitsuroku – is an ancient Japanese text compiled in 901.

It talks about an earthquake and Tsunami that occurred in 869:

“Then the sea began roaring like a big thunderstorm. The sea surface rose up and the huge waves attached the land”

People died in landslide or were crushed by the collapse of their homes.

The event did happen 12 centuries ago – not a myth or a folklore.

Active Fault and Earthquake Research center in Japan estimated that such earthquakes can occur in every 800-1100 years.

2011 – 869 = 1142!

On 11-Mar-2011, a 9.0 magnitude earthquake shook Japan and was followed by Tsunami.

This disabled the power supply and loss of back up power to nuclear reactor at Fukushima Daiiichi nuclear plant.

The resultant loss of reactor core cooling led to

three nuclear meltdowns,
three hydrogen explosions,
the release of radioactive contamination in Units 1, 2 and 3 between 12 and 15 March

Incident impact

Official figures show that there have been 2313 disaster-related deaths among evacuees from Fukushima incident.
Disaster-related deaths are in addition to the about 19,500 that were killed by the earthquake or tsunami.

Fukushima panel had heard of the 869 event but it was so distant that they had no emotional connection.

A severe earthquake and Tsunami was disregarded as double jeopardy in spite of warnings by experts.

Low likelihood does not imply it cannot occur tomorrow!

The post Ancient Japanese Text Contained a Warning for 2011 Fukushima Disaster first appeared on Risk and Safety Blog.

Free safety and reliability resources

Dr. Saraf — Thu, 21 Jan 2021 13:04:58 +0000

AIChE Chemical reactivity worksheet: https://www.aiche.org/ccps/resources/chemical-reactivity-worksheet

The Chemical Reactivity Worksheet (CRW) is a free software program you can use to find out about the chemical reactivity of thousands of common hazardous chemicals, compatibility of absorbents, and suitability of materials of construction in chemical processes.

EPA Consequence modeling software (empirical models), ALOHA: https://www.epa.gov/cameo/aloha-software

ALOHA allows you to enter details about a real or potential chemical release, and then it will generate threat zone estimates for various types of hazards. ALOHA can model toxic gas clouds, flammable gas clouds, BLEVEs (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosions), jet fires, pool fires, and vapor cloud explosions.

NIST CFD modeling for fire and smoke, Fire dynamic simulator (FDS): https://pages.nist.gov/fds-smv/

Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is a large-eddy simulation (LES) code for low-speed flows, with an emphasis on smoke and heat transport from fires.

Kenexis Open PHA, HAZOP, LOPA: https://www.kenexis.com/software/openpha/

Open PHA is a free application in its desktop format, downloadable for Windows, Mac, and Linux.

ALD, Fault Tree Analysis: https://www.fault-tree-analysis-software.com

Create fault tree, calculate probability, get the reports and save the fault tree to your own computer.

ALD, Failure rate and MTBF estimator: https://aldservice.com/Reliability-Software/free-mtbf-calculator.html

Free software for Reliability Prediction. You enter electronic or mechanical component data and receive its predicted MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) and Failure Rate.

ThinkReliability, Root cause analysis excel template: https://offers.thinkreliability.com/root-cause-analysis-excel-template

Fee root cause analysis excel template contains a worksheet to help with root cause investigations.

TNO books for consequence modeling and risk analysis (pdf): https://www.gexcon.com/products-services/coloured-books/

The “Coloured Books” are used around the world as valuable standard reference material in safety studies.
Yellow book: Methods for the calculation of Physical Effects Due to releases of hazardous materials
Green book: Methods for the determination of possible damage to people and objects resulting from releases of hazardous materials
Purple book: Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment
Red book: Methods for determining and processing probabilities

ProSIS, SIL verification: https://www.prosisfse.com/sil-verification/

A simple and easy to use user interface with pre-built fault trees. The fully functional Web based tool is available to use for free with limited usage.

Please message me or leave a comment about any other free resources.

The post Free safety and reliability resources first appeared on Risk and Safety Blog.

Risk Safari

Dr. Saraf — Tue, 12 Jan 2021 20:33:44 +0000

One way to think about risks is in terms of uncertainty.

Donald Rumsfeld, United States Secretary of Defense, explains the limitations of intelligence reports and issues surrounding risk-based decisions.

As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

Donald Rumsfeld

Animals of Risk

Not all risks are created equal.

It’s worthwhile to think in terms of uncertainty surrouding the risks in making a decision.

Elephant in the room: Well-known obvious risk that no-one wants to talk about or address.

Black swan: Black Swan were presumed not to exist. Till a Dutch explorer spotted black swans in Australia. In risk world, black swans represent highly improbable events that cannot be predicted.

Popularized by Nassem Taleb’s book The black swan

Gray rhino: A gray rhino is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan.

Michele Wucker’s book, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore.

Black jellyfish: Unintended risks arising from known phenomenon. In 2013 a nuclear reactor site in Sweden had to be shutdown from jellyfish blocking water inlets. Warmer temperatures from climate change have belived to create favorable conditions for jellyfish populations to rapidly increase.

Lisa-Ann Gershwin’s 2013 book Stung!: On Jellyfish Blooms and the Future of the Ocean.

Bottomline

How you think about risks impacts your decisions.

What animal metaphor would you use to describe risks below:

well blowouts
climate change
thinning pipeline wall
COVID-19

If you are using same risk strategy irrespective of uncertainty, prepared to be disappointed.

Irrespective of what animal metaphor you go with, we all would be better served digging a bit deeper into risk decisions.

The point of animal metaphors is not to argue about animals but better equip risk managers to learn about underlying issues, take “good” risks, and deal with potential downside.

The point of metaphors for risk is not to argue about animals but better equip risk managers to learn about underlying issues, take "good" risks, and deal with potential downside.

The post Risk Safari first appeared on Risk and Safety Blog.

10-year Incident Analysis…Still going Wrong

Dr. Saraf — Wed, 09 Dec 2020 17:17:02 +0000

It is hard to imagine but only a few years ago not everything was on the internet. Google was established in 1998 and as search became prevalent, there was an explosion of online for anyone to access.

From 2008-2010, I went through exercise of collecting and analyzing incident data from 2000-2010 with help from Dr. Amy Liu. Mostly downstream – refineries and petrochemicals.

The effort was focused strictly on using public resources and so it is not surprising as more publications moved online, you see an increase in number of incidents. By the time we got to 2010, we had pretty good handle on data sources and algorithms to find and classify.

That incident rate of 155 incidents per year or 3-4 incidents per week anecdotally seems right.

Even today the incident frequency remains comparable. Approximately 1 in 1000 years.

Just look at last seven days in December 2020.

4-Dec. Explosion at a water recycling plant in Bristol

Four people were killed in the blast at a water recycling center in Kings Weston Lane, Avonmouth, on Thursday.

4-Dec. Explosion at a refinery in South Africa

Seven people were hospitalized following an explosion at Engen refinery in Durban. Six of the workers were being treated for smoke inhalation and the other injured their hip in a fall while trying to escape the fire.

5-Dec Explosion at gas plant in El Salvador

A gas plant just outside the country’s capital San Salvador went up in flames. There have been no reports of victims or injuries.

8-Dec Explosion at a Chemours chemical plant in West Virginia

An explosion was reported at former DuPont facility.

This begs the question, are current process safety practices effective?

Incidents are probably not a good metric to look at efficacy of risk management strategy but let me ask a slightly different question.

In 2021, can the number of incidents drop by an order of magnitude? 15?

Process safety has come a long way since Bhopal disaster but we are far from zero incident facilities.compra

The post 10-year Incident Analysis…Still going Wrong first appeared on Risk and Safety Blog.

QRA 101: Ultimate guide to Quantitative Risk Analysis

Dr. Saraf — Tue, 08 Dec 2020 07:15:34 +0000

Basics

An operating asset, such as a refinery or oil and gas platform, poses risks to people and environment.

A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) quantifies operating risks.

Let’s get the math out of the way!

For quantification, risk is defined as product of frequency and severity.

Consider,

f = annualized frequency of an event (/year). e.g. return period for hurricane.

N = Number of fatalities associated with the event

F = cumulative frequency of N or more fatalities. So F corresponding to N=10 represents summed frequencies of all events resulting in 10 or more fatalities.

Once these numbers are quantified for all different events, there are several ways to represent the risks:

Sum fN for all events. This is called expected value and represents fatalities/year from the operating asset.
Plot FN and compare against a benchmark.
Plot on the risk matrix based on frequency and severity.

Here’s QRA math explained using a simple example.

Simplified qra example, sanjeev saraf from Sanjeev Saraf

Frequency Data

In order to quantify risk, you need data annualized failure data. Typically, this is based on historic data. e.g. a pump leaks once every 15-years.

Sources of failure data
UK HSE Project RR1114 - Offshore accident and failure frequency data sources (HSE)
SINTEF Offshore blowout database (Sintef)
EGIG (European Gas Pipeline Incident data group) Pipeline data Eqiq
PHMSA Office of Pipeline Safety incident data for US pipelines
Pipeline and Riser Loss of Containment (PARLOC) database

Severity Estimate

Severity of a scenario is based on mathematical modeling or past incident data.

For quantifying risk of driving automobiles, you look at historic data to come up with an average N associated with an incident.

For hydrocarbon releases, fire and explosion hazard zones are estimated from the inventories in individual systems. The N is based on severity of hazard and population vulnerability. e.g. indoor vs. outdoor population

Risk Benchmarking

Once the risk from operating assets is quantified, usually it is compared against a threshold.

Risks can be reported as individual (risk profile for a individual) or societal (FN curve, number of people impacted).

One of the reasons FN curve was created was to provide ability to compare risks from different activities. e.g. farming vs. flying.

Very commonly, the risk numbers between the low and high threshold numbers are referred as As-low-as-reasonably-practical (ALARP).

One way QRAs get used particularly in countries mandating this approach is if you exceed the threshold, you try to lower the risk.

Environmental Risks

Risk to environment from operating asset can be quantified using a similar approach. Substitute N with severity of environmental release.

A million dollar oil spill poses a very different environmental leak than fugitive emission.

This needs some calibration either based on remediation costs or societal response.

Business Risks

Quantifying business interruption risk following a QRA scenario is not very common but can be done. Particularly, for insurance purposes.

To do this you need to replace N with a dollar figure.

Imagine a catastrophic scenario in a QRA. If you can associate a financial number based on loss of business, liabilities, asset damage, your expected value represents a probable loss. Similarly, you can also extract the maximum probable loss.

This becomes the basis of underwriting insurance or deciding on how much to insure.

The biggest issues about quantifying risks are incorporating facility specific data and correlated risks.

Cost benefit analysis

Risk reduction is the benefit you gain and is typically associated with a capital cost.

In order to quantify the benefit, need a value of life. EPA’s value of statistical life is about $10-million.

This benefit of risk reduction stays over operating life of the facility allowing you to estimate if the capital spend is justified.

Executive decision: allocating risk capital...which risks will you mitigate?

Continuing from previous post, here are the costs to mitigate the risks:
* Hurricane - $50-k, N= 4
* Explosion - $5-25-mil, N= 10
* Meteorite - $120-mil, N= 100

The statistical value of life is $10-million. The risk numbers are in the pdf.

Here's how folks voted on Linkedin:
http://bit.ly/cost_benefit_survey

Does lower QRA risk mean safer facility?

Not really!

The failure data used is “generic” and not specific to the facility. Think of the failure data as average asset across multiple sites is behaving. The historic data does not quantify the impact of the design, maintenance, and operations on the facility’s failure frequency.

Relative Risks: How to use QRA?

One way to circumvent, failure data and modeling deficiency is for decision involving relative risks.

For example, in trying to decide between two designs, a QRA will reveal the risk drivers.

Because you are making the same modelling errors, there is more confidence in relative risks rather than comparison against a fixed number.

Portfolio Risk Prioritization

Imagine you have a portfolio of assets: offshore, onshore, pipeline, drilling rigs.

Every year you have to make decisions about capital and resource allocation.

A QRA can help with the decision but needs a calibration of benefits and a framework to distribute capital among barriers.

The post QRA 101: Ultimate guide to Quantitative Risk Analysis first appeared on Risk and Safety Blog.

How risks get normalized

Dr. Saraf — Sun, 25 Oct 2020 13:33:06 +0000

Pascagoula gas plant receives condensate from offshore Gulf of Mexico.

For separating components at cryogenic temperatures, it used brazed aluminum heat exchangers. These exchanger are susceptible to thermal fatigue due to low temperaures.

Take a look at the following timeline of how events influenced HAZOP and defects remained in the field.

1997 (design-stage): The HAZOP team identified potential damage mechanism to heat exchangers from thermal shock.

1998-99: Two gas trains commissioned for startup.

2007: There was a leak from one of the exchangers on Train B. It was fixed by welding.

2008: Leak from exchanger on Train A

2009 PHA Revalidation
The consequence of failure was deemed to be injury. The team recommended replacement of the aluminum heat exchangers.

2010: Two leaks, Train B.

2011: Leak, Train A.

2012: Leak, Train B.

2013 PHA Revalidation
Safety consequence was no longer identified from leak scenario. Instead, the team listed potential consequences that reflected plant's experience: a leak that can be repaired!

2014: Leak in Train B.

2015: Leak in Train B.

2016 incident
–Operators initiating controlled shutdown. Fire and explosion reported.
– Brazed aluminum heat exchanger (BAHX) failure from thermal fatigue
–13 different ruptures of piping and equipment during the course of the incident
–Community evacuation

Slides summarize the incident. (Source: Chemical safety board report)

Pascagoula gas plant incident from Sanjeev Saraf

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The Balance of Nature

Dr. Saraf — Sat, 24 Oct 2020 18:26:55 +0000

This is the way a new universe is supposed to work, or at least, how the universe has to work, if it is supposed to.

If all the things in the universe (like every single cell, tree, galaxy, star, planet, etc.) can only be understood if you accept that they were created in some very particular manner, then there is no logical possibility to think that they created at all. If you think about it, we’ve found out a whole lot about the universe (and every single part of it), and we can’t accept anything as fact unless there is a logical reason for it.

You can’t say ‘it’ created out of nothing until you’ve measured something, or figured out the speed of light and the mass of the sun and the mass of matter that they’re all made of, etc – at that point all we say is ‘something’ creates stuff (and it only works for one case; it can’t be true for every case, since it’s impossible to know what might or might not have happened). So then we either have to accept that everything in nature is random, or if that’s the case, we just don’t expect the universe to continue to be random.

Nexterra vs. exxon 2020 from Sanjeev Saraf

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There’s a real question here, and the best answer is that you should be willing to consider, but don’t think that

When we talk about animals then they can be considered species, but this is a false and illogical concept. Species do not exist. Humans are one, all animals are one, they are one.

No wonder people say ‘the woods are the home of the wild’. So I’ve never been there before, it’s been hard to get here from Seattle. My first few days were amazing, I had a lot of freedom. I was free to make wild food, to use fire, go where I wanted (like hiking, kayaking, or snowshoeing), to climb any mountain, to just go wherever I thought might be interesting. This was around August.

So my expectations were way off, my first day of freedom was August 25th. I didn’t really expect to see any bears there. I think I was going to kill a little one on my snowshoes, but it just sort of disappeared.

I guess I’m just the weirdo that likes the outdoors. I had my dogs with me, they were amazing with their food. I was taking them for walks, they would run and chase every bit of wildlife they came across, it wasn’t long at all before someone would come running towards them telling them there was a bear.

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Trevor Says…

Dr. Saraf — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 23:37:31 +0000

Do we need to follow all the rules?
Are meetings worthwhile?
Why does equipment fail in service?

Read Trevor Kletz’s answers to these questions:

http://pscfiles.tamu.edu/research/trevors-corner/tcorner15.pdf

The post Trevor Says… first appeared on Risk and Safety Blog.

New Pipeline Safety Bill

Dr. Saraf — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 19:36:58 +0000

California senators introduced a new bill on pipeline safety – The Strengthening Pipeline Safety and Enforcement Act of 2011. A few key elements in the proposed legislature are:

Double the number of federal pipeline safety inspectors.
Deployment of electronic or remote-control valves capable of automatically shutting off the gas in a fire or other emergency.
Mandates the use of “smart pigs” or an inspection method certified by the Secretary of Transportation as equally effective at finding corrosion.
Prohibits natural gas pipelines from operating at high pressure if they cannot be inspected using the most effective inspection technology.
Prioritizes old pipelines in seismic areas for the highest level of safety oversight.
Directs Department of Transportation to set standards for natural gas leak detection equipment and methods. Today there are no uniform national standards for how to detect leaks.

For complete press release, click on the link below: http://boxer.senate.gov/en/press/releases/013111.cfm

The post New Pipeline Safety Bill first appeared on Risk and Safety Blog.

Offshore Safety Stastistics from UK HSE

Dr. Saraf — Sun, 30 Jan 2011 02:48:07 +0000

The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) reported the following offshore safety statistics on for 2009-10 period.

Zero fatalities
50 major injuries
85 major and significant hydrocarbon releases (HCRs)

Here a link to the UK HSE bulletin:

http://www.hse.gov.uk/offshore/statistics/stat0910.htm

The post Offshore Safety Stastistics from UK HSE first appeared on Risk and Safety Blog.

Fire at a Biodiesel Facility

Dr. Saraf — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 21:38:44 +0000

A month ago, I wrote about fire in a biodiesel facility – the last one for 2010.

http://risk-safety.com/risksafetynewsite/another-biodiesel-firehopfully-the-last-one-for-2010/

Four days into 2011, a fire was reported at a biodiesel plant in Indiana. A boiler used to heat oil which in turn in used to warm biodiesel caught on fire.

To read more click below:

http://tinyurl.com/BiodieselFire-Jan11

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NTSB Safety Recommendations Following San Bruno Incident

Dr. Saraf — Sat, 15 Jan 2011 03:31:42 +0000

NTSB has issued seven safety recommendations following the September, 2010 San Bruno incident in California.

#1. To PHMSA: Inform pipeline operators about circumstances leading up-to and consequences of pipeline rupture at San Bruno and NTSB’s recommendations.

#2. To PG&E: Search records to identify all the gas transmission lines (in class 3 & 4 locations, and class 1 & 2 high consequence areas) that do not have MAOP established through hydro-testing.

#3. To PG&E: Determine the MAOP for pipelines found through #2. This MAOP to be based on the weakest section of pipeline.

#4. To PG&E: For pipelines, where MAOP cannot be determined, use a spike test to determine MAOP.

#5. To CPUC: Oversee PG&E’s implementation of #2

#6. To CPUC: Oversee PG&E’s implementation of #4

#7. To CPUC: Inform California interstate natural gas operators of NTSB findings and recommendations (same as #1)

For complete NTSB press release, click here.

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Safety Professionals: May the Force Be With You!

Dr. Saraf — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 04:32:12 +0000

I came across this interesting post about the Empire’s EHS system.

The Blog Strikes Back: How Star Wars could have used an EH&S System

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