Clearly, Joba needed to make adjustments if his fastball was to average 92 instead of 95. He didn’t make them consistently in 2009 and it led to a somewhat frustrating season. Now, as we head into a new season, we’re again wondering if Joba will recover his velocity, or if he’ll sit in the low 90s for the foreseeable future. As long as he can make adjustments with his command and secondary pitches his velocity shouldn’t be a problem. For a good sample case, we can look to last year’s NL Cy Young winner and the man picked 31 spots ahead of Chamberlain in 2006.

According to the Pitch F/x gun, Tim Lincecum went from averaging 94 mph in 2008 to 92.4 in 2009. Yet he struck out hitters at the same clip, gave up fewer hits, and walked fewer batters. In other words, he made the adjustments necessary to compensate for diminished fastball velocity. He continues to work with his new physical realities, and is honing his secondary pitches again this off-season. In particular, it looks like he’s working with his slider, perhaps with a goal of throwing it more than 10 percent of the time.

For Chamberlain, the drop-off seems a bit more precipitous. He went from averaging 95.2 mph in 2008 to 92.5 in 2009. That might appear to mislead, since it counts Joba’s innings as a reliever, where he threw in the upper 90s, along with his starts. But he also threw bullpen innings as a reliever after the injury and averaged just 93.9 mph there. As a starter, from June into August, he averaged 95.1 mph. I don’t think it’s likely that he consistently reaches that level as a starter again.

Even so, his velocity matched Lincecum’s last year. One major difference is that Lincecum adjusted by throwing the fastball less often. When it sat 94 mph in 2008 he threw it 65.5 percent of the time. But with a bit less zip he threw it less, just 55 percent. Joba, on the other hand, continued to throw the fastball frequently, at 63.3 percent. He also focussed on one secondary pitch, his slider, over another, his curve, while keeping the changeup almost completely out of his arsenal. Conversely, Lincecum used his two secondary pitches, change and curve, about equally. He also worked in his slider 7 percent of the time, more than Joba used the change.

Reducing his reliance on the fastball won’t necessarily make Joba a better pitcher. After all, if he doesn’t have confidence in his secondary pitches they won’t be very effective. But I think that continued heavy use of the fastball will present problems for his development. He certainly can succeed with it, but he might not be able to do so consistently. And if he can’t do that, it’s likely to the pen with him.

Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

How Joba can learn about reduced velocity from Lincecum

League ID: 442039
Password: riveraveblues

If you’ve already signed up for one of the other leagues, please don’t double up. Give everyone a chance.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

RAB Fantasy Baseball League Part Five

Aside from the general joy of watching baseball, there’s usually not much to get excited about when watching Spring Training games. Great pitching matchups last all of two innings, and by time a hot shot prospect enters the game, all the regulars are gone. But every so often something will come along that’s worth getting excited for, and tonight is one of those nights. Hitting third for the Braves tonight is the best prospect in baseball, rightfield Jason Heyward.

The 20-year-old is hitting .429-.619-.786 in seven spring games so far, and he did this just two days ago. He’s a lefthanded version of Jesus Montero at the plate, except with a better eye. Old buddy Melky Cabrera didn’t make the trip over, which is a shame. Either way, should be fun to watch Heyward’s handful of plate appearances.

Here’s the lineup…

Winn, DH
Swisher, RF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Posada, C
Thames, LF
Hoffmann, CF
Pena, SS
Corona, 2B

Scheduled Pitchers: A.J. Burnett, and some other guys

Derek Jeter was in the original lineup, but he came down with the flu. First pitch has already been push back to 7:30pm ET because of the weather, but yo can watch on either YES or MLB Network once it gets underway. Until then, got ahead and open thread this sucker.

Update (7:48pm): The game has been canceled.

Photo Credit: Rob Carr, AP

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Spring Training Game Thread: A look at the phenom

If you were Hechevarria, why would you come to the Yankees? Derek Jeter is going to re-sign after the season and isn’t going anywhere for a while, and Robbie Cano is under contract for another few years. Doesn’t really make sense, playing time wise.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Yanks favored to land Hechevarria

The Yankees and Giles crossed paths in the winter of 2005-2006, as the Yankees sought their center fielder of the future. Bernie Williams, in the last year of his seven-year, $87.5 million deal, had declined considerably over the last few years and by May was replaced in center field, temporarily, by Tony Womack. Even Melky Cabrera got a premature shot that July. With Bernie’s contract off the books, the Yankees could concentrate on finding a true center fielder.

One attractive name among the free agent class was Brian Giles. He had played just 133 innings in center field in 2005, and just 711 in the decade to that point, but the Yankees thought his athleticism would allow him to transition well to the position. Mostly, though, they wanted his bat in their lineup. Even in a down year, 2004, he posted a .366 wOBA. From 1999 through 2003 he had kept that mark over .400, and in 2005 he rebounded to .393. He would have figured somewhere in the middle of the order, along with Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, and Jason Giambi.

The Yankees made their interest known, even enlisting Joe Torre to make the same phone call that wooed Giambi, Mike Mussina, and (sigh) Carl Pavano. It turned out, though, that Giles was never really interested in joining the Yankees and ended up signing a three-year, $30 million contract with the Padres with a $9 million team option for 2009. The Yankees, still needing someone better than Bubba Crosby in center field, ended up signing Johnny Damon less than a month after losing out on Giles.

Though Giles seemed like the better target at the time, the Yankees dodged a bullet when he signed with San Diego. While he had a full and healthy 2006 season, his production declined to below his 2004 level. This came mostly with his power. His ISO dropped to .134, about .050 lower than his previous career low — which came in 2005. Giles did recover some power over the following two seasons, and did have a quality 2008 season. But in each season from 2005 through 2009 Damon outhit him. Giles also performed poorly on defense in right field, and probably would have flopped in center for the Yanks.

At the time, I was a Giles advocate. That OBP was too pretty to pass up. What I did not consider was that Giles could decline with age. He was 35 for the 2006 season, and age certainly did take its toll. I can only imagine what would have happened to the Yankees had they signed him.

Photo credit: Eric Risberg/AP

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Remembering the Yankees pursuit of Brian Giles

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

And down it goes…

How much does a special assistant to the GM make? Well, the Yanks will pay Towers just $50,000 in 2010. Don’t feel bad for him though, San Diego still owes him over a million bucks.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Yankees will introduce Towers next week

Typically considered a power position, the Yanks have instead decided to focus on defense in left. The tremendous offensive production they receive from the four up-the-middle positions allows them to take a bit of a hit in one of the corner outfield spot. With the speedy Brett Gardner already in-house, the team opted to complement him with free agent signing Randy Winn, who managed to be close to a two win player in 2009 despite a .302 wOBA because of his superlative defense. Add in Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann, and it’s clear the Yankees made a conscious effort to improve their defense when replacing Damon in left.

Gardner played nothing but centerfield last year, saving 7.2 runs in 628.2 defensive innings. Winn, on the other hand, saved 16.6 runs in just under 1,200 defensive innings for the Giants. Unlike Gardner, he shifted around and spent time at all three outfield spots. Looking at three-year UZR, we’re talking about 55.2 runs saved in just over 4,700 defensive innings combined between these two, so clearly the defensive ability is there. Jeff Zimmerman’s age-adjusted UZR projections peg Winn as a +2.0 UZR defender in left next year, and Brett Gardner as perfectly average at the position. Both players project to be better defenders at different positions (Winn in right, Gardner in center), but the Yankees aren’t about to shift Curtis Granderson and/or Nick Swisher around for marginal improvements with the glove. These projections seem a little light, but let’s roll with them.

Aside from defense, the other aspect of the game where these guys excel is on the bases. Gardner stole 26 bases last year (83.9% success rate), and according to EqBRR he was worth 4.9 runs in all baserunning situations, 11th best in baseball despite being a part-time player. Believe it or not, Winn is just as much of a threat on the basepaths, having stolen 16 bases with an 88.9% success rate in 2009, and his 4.8 EqBRR was a tenth of a run behind Gardner for the 12th best in the game. No matter which player the Yankees have patrolling leftfield next season, they’re guaranteed of getting solid (or better) defense with top of the line baserunning.

Offensively, we have a different story. Let’s review some projections, starting with Gardner…

After posting a .270-.345-.379 batting line with a slightly above average .337 wOBA in 2009, the five freely available projection systems see Gardner basically repeating that performance. It’s slightly above league average overall but generally below average for a corner outfielder. Combine the offense with the +0.0 UZR projection and say another +5.0 runs on the bases, and Gardner’s looking at a 1.4 WAR season. The shift from center to left decreases Gardner’s value more than anything. It wouldn’t take much to get him over the two win plateau, just a slightly better than league average UZR and another 50 or so plate appearances of similar production.

Now for the grizzled vet…

Winn’s offense doesn’t project to be as good as Gardner’s because of a 20 point difference in on-base percentage, but the good news is that they see an improvement over his .262-.318-.353 (.302 wOBA) performance from last year. Granted, the .316 wOBA projection is nothing to brag about, and when combined with a +2.0 UZR and say +5.0 runs on the bases, you get a one win player. Nothing to get excited over, but not a bad return on a minimal investment ($1.1M) at all.

Of course, figuring out the actual production the Yanks will get out of leftfield is slightly more complicated because Gardner and Winn will presumably split playing time. If Gardner gets say, two-thirds of the playing time, Joe Girardi’s club is probably looking at two wins total for the position, which for all intents and purposes is league average. That doesn’t account for Marcus Thames and/or Jamie Hoffmann, both of whom are trying to state their case for a job this spring. Since both players are projected to perform at replacement level next year, we really don’t have to worry about them. Anything the Yanks get from either is gravy.

For the most part, whoever the Yankees send out to leftfield on a given day will be their weakest player on the field. However, given their strength up-the-middle and two .400 wOBA corner infielders, they can afford to add another to dimension to the team in the form of strong defense and elite baserunning. I don’t expect them to have nine different Opening Day leftfielders in the next nine years like they did a decade ago, but what the Yankees have right now isn’t anything more than a stopgap.

Photo Credit: Kathy Willens, AP

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

2010 Season Preview: Sacrificing offense for defense in left

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

A fifth RAB Fantasy Baseball League

With some of his best young players approaching the majors, then-GM Stick Michael went looking for an upgrade at the back end of his bullpen. As luck would have it, the Expos were looking to sell off their closer, 28-year-old John Wetteland, because of financial reasons. Wetteland had racked up 105 saves with a 2.32 ERA and 10.8 K/9 from 1992-1994, and was slated to earn $7.375M over the next two seasons, absurd money for a reliever at the time.

Three days after the strike was officially over, the Yankees sent outfield prospect Fernando Seguignol to Montreal in exchange for Wetteland. The Yanks got their end-game ace, and the Expos got a little breathing room under the budget. At the time of the trade, Seguignol had yet to appear in a full season minor league, and had just hit .289-.335-.432 in 73 games for Short Season Oneonta of the NY-Penn League. The switch hitter had big time power potential, but defensive concerns meant he was probably going to have to move to first base eventually.

Seguignol certainly fulfilled that power potential, clubbing 69 homers in the next four seasons before making his big league debut in 1998. Unfortunately for him and the Expos, all that power came with the big caveat of high strikeouts and low walk totals. He would bounce back and forth between the minors and the majors for the next three years, ultimately hitting .251-.305-.451 with 17 homers in 366 at-bats in a Montreal uniform. He became a free agent after the 2001 season, and ended up re-signing with the Yankees. Seguignol spent the next few years as a Triple-A masher, though he made an eight plate appearance cameo in the Bronx during the 2003 season.

Now 35-years-old, Seguignol spent some time in the Tigers’ system and in Japan after leaving the Yanks’ organization for a second time. Although he was on Panama’s provisional roster for the 2009 World Baseball Classic, he did not play and has been out of baseball for over a year now. Surely, the Expos would have liked a little more of a return for their star closer.

The Yankees, meanwhile, got exactly what they wanted. Wetteland owned the ninth inning in the Bronx during the 1995 season, saving 31 games with a 2.93 ERA and a 9.7 K/9. Unfortunately the postseason wasn’t as kind to him as the regular season was. After allowing three runs in 4.1 innings during Games One and Two of the ALDS against the Mariners (both Yankee wins), Wetteland entered the eighth inning of Game Four with the score tied at six. Nine pitches later, the bases were loaded following a walk, a single, and a hit batter. The dangerous Edgar Martinez – .327-.464-.595 that year – stepped to plate and worked the count like he always did before giving the Mariners the lead with a grand slam. The Yankees lost the game and eventually the series, and then-manager Buck Showalter didn’t even bother to use Wetteland in the deciding Game Five despite there being obvious situations to use him.

With his Game Four collapse still on everyone’s mind, Wetteland again dominated as the Yanks’ closer in 1996. He saved 43 games with a 2.83 ERA and a 9.8 K/9, earning his first All Star Game berth in the process. Of course, no one cared about the regular season, everyone wanted to see him do it in October. He saved three games in seven appearances during the ALDS and ALCS, though his five walks in nine innings were a bit worrisome.

After the Yankees fell behind the Braves 2-0 in the World Series, Wetteland threw a scoreless ninth to preserve the win for David Cone in Game Three, and he again shut the door in Game Four after the rest of his bullpen mates bailed out the awful Kenny Rogers. His two out save in Game Five was an afterthought following the epic Andy Pettitte-John Smoltz matchup, but the Yankees returned to New York a game away from their 23rd World Championship thanks to three saves in three days from their All Star closer.

Wetteland entered the ninth inning of Gave Six with a two run lead to protect, though the inning was a little more stressful than most cared for it to be. He struck out 19-year-old phenom Andruw Jones to start the frame, but Ryan Klesko and Terry Pendleton put a pair of runners on with back-to-back singles. Former Yankee Luis Polonia struck out for the second out of the inning, but Marquis Grisson singled in a run and put the tying run in scoring position with one swing of the bat. With the lead down to just one run, Wetteland ran the count full against Mark Lemke, and on the seventh pitch of the at-bat he got him to pop-up harmlessly to third baseman Charlie Hayes in foul territory. The Yankees were World Champs, and the big-time closer they traded for just two seasons earlier had been named World Series MVP thanks to his four saves in five days.

Montreal needed to move Wetteland because they couldn’t afford him, and the Yankees were happy to take him in exchange for an A-ball prospect. Although his Game Four meltdown during the 1995 ALDS left a bitter taste in everyone’s mouth, Wetteland delivered in Year Two of his Yankee tenure. He would sign a four year, $23M contract with Texas prior to the 1997 season, allowing a young setup man named Mariano Rivera to take over the closer’s role. This deal was a clear win-win, except both wins went to the Yankees. Sorry, Expos fans.

Photo Credit: Roberto Borea, AP

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Past Trade Review: John Wetteland