River Otter's Reds Blog

Frick Award Winner TBA 2/19

2008-02-14T14:38:00.006-06:00

Joe Nuxhall is one of ten finalists for the Ford C. Frick Award. The award is given annually to recognize broadcasters who have made "major contributions" to baseball. Nuxhall received an incredible 82,304 votes from the approximately 122,000 online ballots that were cast. The 2008 winner will be announced February 19th. Keep your paws crossed for the 'Ol Lefthander.

UPDATE 2/19/08: Dave Niehaus has been named the winner of the 2008 award. As the Consigliere eloquently wrote yesterday, Nuxy doesn't need to be elected to the Hall of Fame to validate his career. The Hall of Fame will be a lesser place without him.

Signs of Spring

2008-02-14T13:53:00.002-06:00

Reds pitchers and catchers will report to camp on Saturday, February 16th. According to the most recent edition of the Reds Hot Stove Notebook, Ryan Freel and Juan Castro have received permission to report with pitchers and catchers. Both Freel and Castro are also out of options. Although most of us expect Freel to make the team, I have a hard time seeing how the Reds could justify a spot for Castro without injuries to some of the other infielders.

Searching for Starting Pitching

2008-02-07T09:11:00.000-06:00

Ken Rosenthal reports that the Reds could still be in the mix for Joe Blanton. Rosenthal reports that Blanton won't bring nearly the same bounty as Bedard because: 1) he's not as good; and 2) he's not nearly as affordable. Rosenthal indicates that Blanton will probably earn in the range $18M over the next three years due to his arbitration eligibility. Of course, $18M for 3 years is reasonable for good starting pitching. It will be interesting to see if anything comes from this rumor.

H/t to Doug Gray at Reds Minor Leagues.

Clutch Dawgs

2008-01-30T21:07:00.000-06:00

My Drake Bulldogs were once again clutch down the stretch, pulling away to beat Creighton 75 - 65 at the Knapp Center. Drake is now 19-1 and 10-0 in the MVC.

UPDATE 2/3/08: The Bulldogs snapped the Indiana State Sycamores ten game home winning streak last night to move to 20-1 and 11-0 in the MVC.

UPDATE 2/6/08: Drake beat Illinois State on Tuesday night to improve their record to 21-1 and 12-0 in the MVC. I enjoyed this quote from Coach Davis to the Des Moines Register:

A lot of people around the country keep saying, 'Drake's not that good. They just keep finding ways to win,' coach Keno Davis said. Well, that's what great teams do. They find ways to win.

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

More on the Big Four

2008-01-28T12:33:00.000-06:00

Lisa Winston at MLB.com posted a nice article today on the potential impact this year of the Reds' big four prospects. Ms. Winston concludes that the Reds' prospects have the best chance of propelling their team to the playoffs in 2008 (a la Colorado, Arizona, and Cleveland the past couple of seasons).

For those interested, the most recent edition of the Reds' Hot Stove Notebook includes Winter League statistics. Daniel Guerrero, acquired in the Hamilton trade, pitched very well.

Sayonara Sarasota?

2008-01-25T20:04:00.000-06:00

The Goodyear City Council will vote on an agreement on Monday night (January 28th) that would require both the City of Goodyear and the Reds to negotiate exclusively with each other regarding Goodyear's spring training facility and the Reds future spring training plans. Assuming the agreement is approved, and both sides sign the agreement, it makes it unlikely the Reds will remain in Sarasota. I think Sarasota County will regret its decision not to spend its tourism taxes (which it's required to spend on projects that promote tourism) on the Ed if the Reds end up in Arizona.

H/t to CTR.

1/28/08 UPDATE: The exclusivity agreement has been signed, sealed, and delivered.

Dawging It

2008-01-23T12:57:00.000-06:00

Drake won at Creighton last night in overtime to move to 8-0 in the MVC. Per Jason McCallum of ESPN, this was no small feat:

Creighton's home venue, the Qwest Center Omaha, opened five seasons ago. Prior to Tuesday night, 18 visiting teams had entered that building with one or zero losses. Creighton handed every one of those teams a loss. Drake, which entered the building 16-1, became the first zero- or one-loss team to defeat the Bluejays as the Bulldogs moved to 17-1.

Although Drake's non-conference schedule was a bit soft due in part to the relative suckitude of Iowa and Iowa State this year (Drake beat Iowa State by 35 points), its RPI rating is now 8 (SOS 72). All hail the Bulldogs!

(You'll have to forgive my giddiness as this is the first time since the 1974-75 season that Drake has been ranked in the top 25.)

A Season to Forget

2008-01-22T12:44:00.000-06:00

Geoff Young recently wrote an article for the Hardball Times on ten of the worst individual pitching seasons. I had forgetten just how historically awful Eric Milton was in 2005. Here's an excerpt from the column:

#5: Eric Milton, 2005 Reds
IP ERA BA OBP SLG ERA+ OPS+
186.1 6.47 .302 .349 .543 66 136
Once upon a time, Milton was a hot young prospect in the Yankees organization who became part of the package that sent Chuck Knoblauch from Minnesota to the Bronx. In his 1998 Minor League Scouting Notebook John Sickels rated Milton as the 23rd best prospect in baseball and compared him favorably to Andy Pettitte. Milton teased for a few years, then got hurt, then lost effectiveness.
Always susceptible to the home run ball, Milton gave up 40 of
them in 2005 (half of which came in his first 11 starts). That's not quite Ken Dixon territory, but it's not good. Milton allowed six runs or more in 11 of his 34 starts.

Despite the fact that opponents were hitting .302 against him and he had 6.47 ERA, the Reds still allowed him to accumulate 186 innings. Of course, my recollection is that the Reds didn't have a lot of other options that year.

Reds Sign Affeldt

2008-01-19T17:29:00.000-06:00

Per Ken Rosenthal, the Reds have signed Jeremy Affeldt to a one year deal for $3 million plus incentives. According to Rosenthal, the Reds intend to give the lefty Affeldt a shot at the starting rotation. In light of the money involved, I think this is good signing by Herr Krivsky. Affeldt was decent as a starter for the Royals in 2002 and 2003. The Consigliere reports that blisters were the primary reason Affeldt was converted to the bullpen. If Affeldt has resolved the problem that caused the blisters, he could be a decent starter for the Reds. However, even if starting doesn't work out for Affeldt, he still solidifies the bullpen. This was a low risk move by Krivsky.

Signing Affeldt still doesn't address the Reds' need for another top of the rotation starter. However, given the outrageous costs for good starting pitching, I'm fine with finding out if Bailey, or perhaps Volquez, can be that top three starter next year. There's also the possibility that Cueto or Maloney could fill that role by 2009.

How ' Bout Them Dawgs

2008-01-17T21:59:00.000-06:00

The Drake Bulldogs (my alma mater, not their cousins from the SEC) are off to a start not seen since the days of Maury John. After last night's win over Bradley, Drake is now 6-0 in the Missouri Valley and 15-1 overall. Not bad for a team picked to finish ninth in the Missouri Valley. It's an unbelievable start for first year head coach Keno Davis, who took over from his father Dr. Tom Davis. There's a reason his name is Keno.

1/19/08 UPDATE: Sans leading scorer Josh Young, Drake rallied to overcome a twelve point second half deficit to beat Illinois State. Drake now has a fifteen game winning streak and is the only remaining undefeated team in the MVC.

Needy for Starting Pitching

2008-01-15T12:37:00.000-06:00

MLB Trade Rumors has posted its Needs and Luxuries report on the Reds. Not surprisingly, the report states that starting pitching is the biggest need. Tim argues the Reds really need another front of the rotation starter, not another re-tread like Jon Lieber or Brett Tomko, if the Reds want to make the playoffs. He advocates trading Bruce for Bedard (if the O's would take that offer). Given the outrageous demands the O's have been making for Bedard, I doubt they'd trade him straight up for Bruce, although I think the Reds would have to make that deal if the O's agreed. Otherwise, I think the Reds are better off playing the odds that between Belisle, Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, and Maloney, at least one or two of those guys will become above average starters.

I would note that Jonathan Mayo makes a convincing argument that the Reds shouldn't even trade Bruce for Bedard.

Prospecting

2008-01-09T13:15:00.000-06:00

Jim Callis at Baseball America loves Reds' prospects Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and Johnny Cueto, but isn't sold on Edinson Volquez:

Volquez has exceeded 50 major league innings, so he's no longer a prospect in our book. He definitely wouldn't have ranked ahead of Bruce, Bailey, Votto or Cueto, arguably the best foursome of prospects in any farm system right now. He probably would have settled in at No. 5, ahead of Stubbs, though I'm not the biggest Volquez fan in the world. I wouldn't have advocated him making the Top 100.

Volquez throws hard and has a nice changeup, but he never has shown a reliable curveball in the big leagues and his control and command always have been spotty. I see him more as a classic tease, a guy who can light up radar guns but never will be the frontline starter his velocity suggests he might become.

However, he did think the Hamilton trade made sense for the Reds despite concerns about why a team like the Rangers would trade a pitching prospect:

Trading Josh Hamilton to get Volquez made sense for the Reds, however. They had the second-worst ERA in the National League last year and more outfielders than they knew what to do with. Now Cincinnati has an opening for Bruce to play in the majors and another candidate for its rotation.

Considering that the Rangers have been on a perpetual search for pitching, however, shouldn't it tell us something that they were willing to part with Volquez?

Colon Warning

2008-01-07T17:22:00.000-06:00

Per mlbtraderumors.com, it appears that Bartolo Colon has missed his last couple of starts and has yet to hit 90 mph on his fastball. It's probably for the best that the Reds aren't rumored to be in the mix for Mr. Colon.

Roster Update

2008-01-06T20:41:00.000-06:00

Reds.com has posted the most recent Hot Stove Notebook, which includes the updated 40-Man Roster (currently at 39) after the Jeff Fiorentino signing on Friday. I was relieved to see that both Castro and Stanton are still on the 40-Man. The notebook also lists the non-roster players invited to spring training, including Andy Phillips and some of the other players signed to minor league contracts on Friday.

Impact of Homer Bailey's Injury

2007-12-31T12:58:00.000-06:00

Doug Gray at Reds Minor Leagues did a breakdown of how Homer Bailey's groin injury may have impacted him last year. He compared Bailey's innings pitched before his groin injury on June 26th and after he returned from the DL, versus the approximately nineteen innings he pitched while injured. The difference is staggering and should give Reds fans great cause for optimism in 2008:

Non-injured innings pitched (93.1): 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP
Injured innings pitched (19.3): 10.24 ERA and 2.24 WHIP

Davey Concepcion: Hall of Fame Worthy?

2007-12-30T12:59:00.001-06:00

This year is Davey Concepcion's fifteenth, and final, year for election by the BBWAA to the Hall of Fame. Concepcion was a nine-time All-Star and won five Gold Gloves. He appeared in the World Series four times as part of the Big Red Machine teams of the 1970s. A strong argument can be made that he was the best shortstop in baseball during the 1970s.

In light of the fact that Concepcion has never received more than 16.9% of the votes (75% is needed to make Cooperstown), it's highly unlikely he'll be voted in this year. But does he deserve to be? Offensively, Davey posted a line of .267/.322/.357 with an OPS+ of 88. He also stole 321 bases, with a success rate of just under 75%. Per Baseball Reference, Davey top ten offensive comps are:

Bobby Wallace .268/.332/.358 OPS+ 105
Tony Fernandez .288/347.399 OPS+ 101
Omar Vizquel .274/.340/.357 OPS+ 84
Royce Clayton .258/.312 /.367 OPS+ 77
Bert Campaneris .259/.311/.342 OPS+ 89
Frank White .255/.293/.383 OPS+ 85
Luis Aparicio .262/.311/.343 OPS+ 82
Pee Wee Reese .269/.366/.377 OPS+ 99
Tony Taylor .261/.321/.352 OPS+ 88
Red Schoendienst .289/.337.387 OPS+ 93

Wallace, Aparicio, Reese, and Schoendienst are Hall of Famers. Of the four, the only player that Concepcion was better than offensively was Aparicio. However, Aparicio was probably better defensively (he at least won more Gold Gloves).

Concepcion was a great player, and a key part of the Big Red Machine teams of the 70s. He's always been one of my favorite Reds players. Although an argument can be made that Concepcion is Hall of Fame worthy, I think he falls just a bit short.

Reds Offseason Acquisitions (So Far)

2007-12-29T23:33:00.000-06:00

I thought I otter give a welcome to some of the new Reds for 2008:

Dusty Baker. As much as I liked Pete Mackanin, it's hard to fault Bob Castenilli for hiring Dusty Baker. Dusty Baker has certainly had some success as a manager. (Btw, I love it that he has his own website, even if it's sorely in need of an update.) Although he has a reputation for overworking young pitchers, his reputation has probably been a bit overstated. Let's hope that's the case as he's being entrusted with some talented young pitchers in Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez, with Johnny Cueto and others in the pipeline. We'll trusty in Dusty for now.
Francisco Cordero. It's hard to overstate what an important signing this was the Reds, even if the contract was a bit pricey. The signing allows Weathers to move back into a setup role. With the emergence of the Stealth Bomber (Jared Burton), and the return of a hopefully healthly Bill Bray, I'm cautiously optimistic the bullpen won't be putrid next year.
Edinson Volquez. Although I'll miss Josh Hamilton, I thought the trade was worth the risk. Volquez is suppose to have great stuff, and pitched decently for the Rangers when he was called up late last season. Good starting pitching is always harder to find than offense. And I liked this trade much better than giving away the farm for a two year rental of Erik Bedard. You have to figure that between Bailey, Volquez, Cueto, and Maloney, at least one or two of these guys have to work out.

Overall, I like what the Reds have done so far. I'd like to see them add an experienced starting pitcher, such as Jon Lieber, as at reasonable price. An upgrade at catcher would also be nice (although JinAz makes a somewhat convincing argument that Ross was a victim of bad luck last year). It will be interesting to see what else Krivsky is able to accomplish before spring training.

Goodbye to The Consigliere's Blog at the Post

2007-12-29T17:24:00.000-06:00

It's hard to believe it's already the end of 2007. Unfortunately, the end of the year means the demise of the Cincinnati Post, which means the Consigliere's Blog will also come to end. Although I think we all appreciate the job that Marc Lancaster did, Trent created and fostered an environment that developed a real community of Reds' fans. He took time out of his busy schedule to blog the games, keep us apprised of breaking news, and answer our questions (no matter how stupid they might be). He even blogged on his off days. (The blog did have a few perks, as the picture on the right shows.) I can't tell you how much fun I had interacting with Trent and other Reds' fans during the games. One of the things that made the blog so great was that we discussed not only the Reds, but topics ranging from music to beer to barbeque. Even though the Reds didn't have a great season, Trent and everyone who commented made it fun and memorable. I hope that everyone who commented on Trent's blog will congregate to another blog during the 2008 season, but I fear it won't be same. Although Trent's blog at the Cincinnati Post has come to an end, hopefully it's not goodbye. Here's hoping to blogging with all of you in 2008!

Potential Free Agent Pitcher

2007-10-03T20:12:00.000-05:00

If the Reds are lucky, they might be able to sign this guy in the offseason.

A Farewell Limerick to the Consigliere

2007-09-30T10:09:00.000-05:00

Our story begins during spring training bliss
When our hero was no longer an apprentice
to former Post scribe Marc Lancaster
who went to cover the Tampa disaster
Although the Post’s uncertainty Marc didn’t miss

Trent took the blog reigns with a vengeance
And showed us all he had a penchant
For blogging with wit
And not like some twit
For the debonair gentleman was prescient

Trent’s writing quickly earned a big following
Even without the commenting of “CC” his darling
For his blogging skills were renowned
And during the spring we found
A journalist who combined great writing with ogling

The story of spring was Josh Hamilton
Who was seeking life and baseball redemption
Although some argued for no praise
We knew they were knaves
And Trent covered the story with great erudition

Trent became a star during the second innings
While joining Marty and Thom for their stylings
The Consligiere nickname was born
With nary any scorn
And Brennamania became awe inspiring

Trent handled the Narron situation like a maestro
While fans wanted Narron gone with much gusto
Trent first reported Narron’s demise
No matter what the starfish claimed otherwise
Although we all knew the real problem wasn’t Narron but Castro

In the summer Trent defended Harang from the drunkard LaRussa
Whose hypocrisy of all things is never elusive
Some thought Trent was too critical
We thought their IQ was infinitesimal
And welcomed the response to the “genius” whose logic is non-conducive

The 8th inning this season was the Reds’ bane
So Amy proclaimed it the Inning That Shall Remain Unnamed
But the problem still didn’t subside
Until the Stealth Bomber arrived
And he became the unwavering master of its domain

Under Trent’s guidance the blog was not limited
To Reds’ discussion but often included
Music recommendations
Discussion of libations
And undergarments, bathroom furniture, and the denuded

Despite the Reds’ record there were highlights to the season
Like a Dunn walk-off homer against Bob Wickman
Or the “its all good dawg” Phillips’ 30-30,
Hamilton, Hopper, Homer, Votto and Keppy,
And All-star Griffey while Harang gave ”Cy Young” voters a reason

The blog made the season a delight
With animals, redheads, and other fans sharing insights
While Jim Edmonds took a dive
Bill Hall made us curse and sigh
And Trent protected us from duncery with intellectual might

And so your “five” readers and commenters raise a toast
To our favorite beat writer at the expiring Post
We will miss the blog’s camaraderie
And Va Redsfans’ pictures of models in lingerie
So we wish you the best while you ascend like Poz from the Boast