Rob's Greater Vancouver Real Estate Blog

I'm Outta Here!

2007-04-04T18:07:00.000-07:00

I'm packing up my blog and moving to Wordpress. I like some of the Wordpress features, and a change is as good as a rest. Come and check it out!

Tuesday's Numbers

2007-04-03T22:23:00.000-07:00

There were 272 new listings today and 156 sales, for a sell/list of 57.35%. Of the sales 22, or 14.10%, went over list. 9 of those were on the Westside. 3 were in East Van, 2 were in Richmond, 2 in Pitt Meadows, 3 in North Van, 1 in Maple Ridge, 1 in Burnaby, and 1 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $490,264; average sales price was $482,015, a difference of $8,249, meaning the average sale went for 1.70% under list price. 14 properties went for list price. One property went for 42%($337,000) under list while the highest over list was 22% ($212,000) over.

There were 8 million dollar plus properties sold, with 1 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 34.

There were 99 price changes, of which 12, or 12.12%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $555,620; the average new price was $540,348, a difference of $15,272, meaning the average price change was -1.96%.

Inventory in my target area rose today to 10,322 today, while over 90s rose again, reaching 1,751, and in percentage to 16.96%.

There were 43 expiries today.

0.84% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.

Monday's Numbers

2007-04-02T22:49:00.000-07:00

There were 216 new listings today and 205 sales, for a sell/list of 94.91%. Of the sales 35, or 17.07%, went over list. 11 of those were on the Westside. 5 were in East Van, 4 were in Richmond, 2 in Port Coquitlam, 1 in Pitt Meadows, 1 in New West, 3 in North Van, 1 in Coquitlam, 4 in Burnaby, and 3 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $514,797; average sales price was $506,975, a difference of $7,882, meaning the average sale went for 1.51% under list price. 12 properties went for list price. One property went for 8%($43,000) under list while the highest over list was 8% ($46,100) over.

There were 10 million dollar plus properties sold, with three over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 33.

There were 151 price changes, of which 24, or 15.89%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $579,549; the average new price was $568,620, a difference of $10,929, meaning the average price change was -2.37%.

Inventory in my target area fell agin today to 10,249 today, while over 90s finally rose somewhat, reaching 1,722, an in percentage to 16.8%.

There were 44 expiries today.

1.24% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.

Some Interesting Tidbits From the Weekend's Post

2007-04-01T21:00:00.000-07:00

There were two interesting articles in the National Post Saturday,one by Brian Hutchinson and another by Peter Kuitenbrower, about house size through the years and across the country. Houses, of course, have grown bigger. In the 1900s we wer happy with 700 square feet, but this grew to 1,000 by the 20s, 1,200 by the 50s, 1,300 by the 70s, 3,000 by the 80s, and a staggering 5,000 square feet today. A quick survey of new construction in North Van confirms this.

Comparing new home sizes across the country, Saskatchewan and Manitoba average 1,850 sq. ft., Alberta comes in at 1,900, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada get a little bigger at 2,000, and of course we lead the pack at 2,500 (Heating bill? What heating bill?).

There's talk that house size has maxed out, and we'll see smaller places in the future, as large homes simply aren't that livable. I'm not so sure I agree. From my point of view house size is dictated by what buyers can afford to pay for. If they can buy more, builders will build larger, as each extra sq. foot is more profit (margin should increase with size, right?). I may be wrong about that, but I think builder profitability plays a large, although hidden role.

A second interesting article appeard in the Financial Post section. It wasn't directed toward housing so much as towards bond holders and how the sub-prime meltdown would effect them. David Berman writes that bond guru Bill Gross says housing prices could fall by 20%, which would be catastrophic for the US economy. "Marginal" home owners will ahve to sell because they can't re-finance, but other marginal buyers won't be able to scoop up opportunities becasue they won't qualify for financing either. The cure for low prices won't be low prices. The obvious conclusion that Gross comes to is that the Fed will keep rates low enough that mortgage rates will also stay low.

Bonds go up in value when interest rates decline, so current bond holders rejoice. (To add the requisite confusion, when bond prices rise, yields fall:-).

Does Gross make sense? Will he be right? The answer to number one seems to be a clear yes, but whether the Fed will jump the way he says is another story.

Friday Numbers

2007-04-01T20:00:00.000-07:00

There were 223 new listings Friday and 139 sales, for a sell/list of 62.33%. Of the sales 18, or 12.95%, went over list. 5 of those were on the Westside. 4 were in East Van, 1 was in Richmond, 3 in North Van, 1 in Maple Ridge, 3 in Burnaby, and 1 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $500,392; average sales price was $491,057, a difference of $9,335, meaning the average sale went for 1.85% under list price. 12 properties went for list price. Two properties went for 12% ($180,000/225,000) under list while the highest over list was 11.5% (also $242,000) over.

There were 5 million dollar plus properties sold, with 3 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 44.

There were 40 price changes, of which only 1, or 2.5%, was an increase. The average original list price of price changes was $519,848; the average new price was $504,848, a difference of $15,000, meaning the average price change was -2.79%.

Inventory in my target area dropped drastically to 10,282 Friday, while over 90s dropping even more drastically to 1,687, a decrease in percentage to 16.41%.

Simple math says that there were were 379 expiries Friday. The drop in inventory was so extreme I checked the search several times. There is no mistake on my end. We'll have to see if inventory stays low Monday, or if there was some sort of data blip tht gets straightened out.

0.38% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced Friday.

Full Thursday Numbers

2007-04-01T19:44:00.000-07:00

There were 322 new listings Thursday and 221 sales, for a sell/list of 68.63%. Of the sales 35, or 15.84%, went over list. 9 of those were on the Westside. 5 were in East Van, 2 were in Richmond, 4 in Port Coquitlam, 8 in North Van (big numbers again), 1 in Maple Ridge, 1 in Coquitlam, 3 in Burnaby, and 2 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $512,240; average sales price was $503,890, a difference of $8,350, meaning the average sale went for 1.37% under list price. 23 properties went for list price. One property went for 13% ($100,000) under list while the highest over list was 19% (also $100,000) over.

There were 11 million dollar plus properties sold, with one over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was, again 35.

There were 89 price changes, of which 13, or 14.61%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $511,840; the average new price was $500,994, a difference of $10,846, meaning the average price change was -2.32%.

Inventory in my target area dropped to 10,577 Thursday, while over 90s continued dropping to 2,040, a decrease in percentage to 19.29%.

There were 111 expiries Thursday.

0.72% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced Thursday.

Quick Thursday Numbers

2007-03-30T12:06:00.000-07:00

Hi all:

Bit of a hurry here. 322 listings yesterday, 89 price changes, 221 sales, sell/list of 68.63%. Total inventory 10,577, over 90s 2,040 (19.28%).

Wednesday Numbers

2007-03-29T00:12:00.001-07:00

There were 291 new listings today and 219 sales, for a sell/list of 75.26%. Of the sales 32, or 14.61%, went over list. 7 of those were on the Westside. 6 were in East Van, 3 were in Richmond, 3 in Port Coquitlam, 2 in Pitt Meadows, 3 in North Van, 1 in Coquitlam, 4 in Burnaby, and 3 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $498,214; average sales price was $490,742, a difference of $7,472, meaning the average sale went for 1.56% under list price. 25 properties went for list price. One property went for 13 ($105,000) under list while the highest over list was 12% ($67,100) over.

There were 11 million dollar plus properties sold, with none over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 35.

There were 88 price changes, of which 10, or 11.36%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $649,229; the average new price was $629,319, a difference of $19,910, meaning the average price change was -2.22%.

Inventory in my target area rose to 10,587 today, while over 90s continued dropping to 2,104, a decrease in percentage to 19.87%. We haven't seen those numbers since November.

There were 65 expiries today.

0.74% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.

Sauder Data

2007-03-28T09:29:00.000-07:00

Figures lie and liars figure, right? The best way to handle that is to let everyone draw their own conclusions from the numbers and discuss them.

When prices first began running up a few years ago, the obvious question many Realtors asked was "How long will this last?" That led to the second obvious question "What, aside from a new government and improving economy, is the cause of this run up?"

One answer among several was that we were simply catching up. Price appreciation had been stagnant for so long that an increase in price was something to be expected. (This is sort of the opposite, or for some people, evil twin, of the "borrowing demand from the future" explanation).

Is there any truth to the idea? I'll let you decide that for yourselves. The Sauder School of Business at UBC provides lots of housing data on the local market and presents them in tables and graphs.

One of the more interesting is a real vs. nominal price graph, based on 2004 Q2 figures.

Tuesday Numbers

2007-03-27T22:16:00.000-07:00

There were 244 new listings today and 172 sales, for a sell/list of 70.49%. Of the sales 20, or 11.63%, went over list. 6 of those were on the Westside. 2 were in East Van, 1 in Pitt Meadows, 1 in New West, 2 in North Van, 2 in Maple Ridge, 1 in Burnaby, and 5 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $469,847; average sales price was $464,241, a difference of $5,606, meaning the average sale went for 1.20% under list price. 19 properties went for list price. One property went for 9% ($67,000) under list while the highest over list was 11% ($111,00) over.

There were 4 million dollar plus properties sold, with none over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 35.

There were 94 price changes, of which 10, or 10.64%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $541,362; the average new price was $531,774, a difference of $9,588, meaning the average price change was -2.5%.

Inventory in my target area rose to 10,580 today, while over 90s continued dropping to 2,125, a decrease in percentage to 20.09%.

There were 38 expiries today.

0.79% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.

Monday Numbers ! A Weekend Surge?!?!

2007-03-26T22:58:00.000-07:00

Mondays often bring lots of listings. The results of a busy listing weekend get posted right away, while a busy sales weekend has to wait for subject removals before the results show up. Although we did have a strong listing day today, there was no weekend surge. In fact, we're a little slower than we were last week.

There were 263 new listings today and 152 sales, for a sell/list of 57.59%. Of the sales 14, or 9.21%, went over list. 2 of those were on the Westside. 1 was in East Van, 3 in Port Coquitlam, 4 in North Van (staying strong, despite median incomes), 1 in Coquitlam, 1 in Burnaby, and 2 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $556,593; average sales price was $539,833, a difference of $16,761, meaning the average sale went for 2.22% under list price. 15 properties went for list price. One property went for 18% ($415,900) under list while the two highest over list were both 11% ($42,000 & 96,000) over.

There were 10 million dollar plus properties sold, with two over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 35.

There were 43 price changes, of which 6, or 13.95%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $672,265; the average new price was $670,260, a difference of $2,005, meaning the average price change was -1.86%. (There was a $418,000 price increase which skews absolute numbers somewhat (resulting in the small difference between old and new prices), but after taking it out the change becomes $11,814/-2.28%)

Inventory in my target area rose to 10,546 today, while over 90s continued dropping to 2,134, a decrease in percentage to 20.24%. I think its unlikely that we'll hit 11,000 or ahve a 400 listing day, but despair not, VHB! Remember the words of the great Ozzie Jurrock: Predict often, and don't give dates! ;-)

There were 58 expiries today.

0.35% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced Friday.

Friday Numbers

2007-03-24T20:24:00.000-07:00

There were 273 new listings Friday and 116 sales, for a sell/list of 42.49%. Of the sales 22, or 18.97%, went over list. 5 of those were on the Westside. 2 were in East Van, 4 were in Richmond, 2 in Pitt Meadows, 1 in New West, 3 in North Van, 2 in Maple Ridge, 1 in Coquitlam, 1 in Burnaby, and 1 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $509,744; average sales price was $499,578, a difference of $10,166, meaning the average sale went for 1.66% under list price. 9 properties went for list price. One property went for 17% ($79,900) under list while the highest over list was 10% ($45,000) over.

There were 9 million dollar plus properties sold, with none over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 36.

There were 66 price changes, of which 9, or 13.64%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $531,880; the average new price was $505,974, a difference of $25,906, meaning the average price change was -3.44%.

Inventory in my target area rose to 10,493 Friday, while over 90s continued dropping to 2,153, a decrease in percentage to 20.52%.

There were 59 expiries Friday.

0.54% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced Friday.

There were 2 broker load listings Saturday.

If You Like Willard's Conspiracy Theory...

2007-03-23T14:12:00.000-07:00

Willard accuses me of posting to my own blog under at least two aliases - vanreinvestor and hotballz. He says that he has irrefutable proof. He may actually believe that, or he may know better. I know its not true. I don't post to RE blogs under aliases.

His case hinges on two things, as far as I can see. First, on January 30 he points out that I responded to a comment from an anonymous poster and referred to him as vanreinvestor, and that vanreinvestor and hotballz used my writing style, evidenced by a colon instead of an apostrophe and an extra space.

He made the accusation March 13. Since then he's ranted on and on about what's right and what's wrong, humility, and exposure. He appears convinced that his understanding of logic equals irrefutable proof equals Truth, and then treats his opinion as fact. I say "appears" because he's either not as smart as he thinks and is missing something obvious, or he's not as smart as he thinks and is behind the whole thing. (Either way, he's not as smart as he thinks. How do I know? Because in this particular case I do know the truth of the matter).

So, if Willard's a troll, or simply a misguided knob, what's the problem? Trolls and knobs make the internet amusing, don't they? There are two issues. First, I'm not guilty of what Willard accuses me of, but once the accusation is made a stain remains. I don't much care what Willard thinks - he's exposed enough of his character. I don't like that other readers find some of his evidence acceptable. If you throw enough crap at the wall something might stick. Willard's a crap thrower and I'm a janitor.

Second, Willard's behaviour endangers freedom of speech. He is either inaccurate or malicious. Both are bad. If I can't demonstrate the weakness of his thought process I have to either control posts or put up with his bullshit.

I took a look at his proof and found something interesting. On
January 30 there are two questions posted by "anonymous". I responded to one and referred to him as "vanreinvestor". That's Willard's proof. I say that when I wrote the answer the comment was labelled as coming from vanreinvestor, but I'll admit that I could be mistaken. There could be another reason for me referring to an anonymous poster by another name, aside from both posters being me.

Has it happened before? To ask the question is to answer it. On January 29 I referred to two anonymous posters as "Dignan" and "uncertain buyer". On January 28 I also referred to another anonymous poster as "Dig". On
January 25th I referred to two more anonymous posters as "south island" and "mighty mouse". On January 24 I referred to three anonymous posters as "uncertain buyer" (again), as well as "WG2C" (wannagettocalgary) and "charliethecat". It goes on and on. Back on December 1 I referred to an anonymous poster as "wannaget2calgary", and another poster, "no longer active" quoted that reference.

Can I explain why what used to appear as attributed posters now appear as anonymous posters? No. But I think that if Willard wants to maintain that his proof is irrefutable then he also has to claim that I am Dignan, uncertain buyer, south island, mightymouse, wannagetocalgary and Charlie the Cat.

Willard, do you regret using the extreme terms "irrefutabe"(sic) and "beyond dispute"? Have I injected any reasonable doubt into your case?

Thursday Numbers

2007-03-22T21:12:00.000-07:00

There were 294 new listings today and 200 sales, for a sell/list of 68.03%. Of the sales 31, or 15.50%, went over list. 9 of those were on the Westside. 7 were in East Van (all over, just like yesterday), 3 in Port Coquitlam, 3 in North Van, 3 in Maple Ridge, 5 in Burnaby, and 1 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $571,240; average sales price was $554,683, a difference of $16,557, meaning the average sale went for 1.65% under list price. 19 properties went for list price. One property went for 30% ($2,000,000) under list while the highest over list was 25% ($411,200) over.

There were 14 million dollar plus properties sold, with 1 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 39.

There were 65 price changes, of which 14, or 21.54%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $600,472; the average new price was $590,218, a difference of $10,254, meaning the average price change was -2.05%.

Inventory in my target area rose to 10,395 today, while over 90s continued dropping to 2,174, a decrease in percentage to 20.91%. Of the 2,174, 1,537 (70.7%)were listed prioer to November 1, 2006.

There were 45 expiries today.

0.49% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.

Willard's Post

2007-03-22T17:18:00.000-07:00

Willard, an anonymous poster whose current profile dates back to March, 2007, is convinced that I am posting to my own blog under various aliases. I'm not, but he's unconvinced. I find the idea amusing, and can't really see that point. Still, Willard is convinced its occurring and he's convinced that its bad.

I said that if he wanted to keep pursuing it I'd provide a specific thread for the subject. This is it. Fly at 'er, Willard!

Wednesday Numbers

2007-03-21T21:55:00.001-07:00

There were 306 new listings today (306!) and 193 sales, for a sell/list of 63.07%. Of the sales 30, or 15.54%, went over list. 11 of those were on the Westside. 7 were in East Van (Renfrew, Grandview, Hastings, Fraserview, Mount Pleasant, Collingwood), 2 in Richmond, 1 in Pitt Meadows, 2 in North Van, 1 in Maple Ridge, 2 in Coquitlam, 3 in Burnaby, and 1 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $527,030; average sales price was $518,593, a difference of $8,437, meaning the average sale went for 1.43% under list price. 18 properties went for list price. One property went for 15% ($175,000) under list while the highest over list was 19.75% ($112,200) over. (That beat my Colwood story, which was 13.6% and $91,000 over).

There were 14 million dollar plus properties sold, with 2 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 55.

There were 93 price changes, of which 14, or 14.74%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $516,047; the average new price was $500,551, a difference of $15,496 meaning the average price change was -1.94%.

Inventory in my target area rose to 10,346 today, while over 90s continued dropping to 2,223, a decrease in percentage to 21.49%.

0.78% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.

Sunday Trench Report Update

2007-03-21T00:08:00.000-07:00

Its clear that relative value in the current market is apparent to some of the blog audience. Both systemsguy and cecil were aware of a listing in North Van that we were writing an offer on, and I think both knew about it because of its low list price. To recap, it was listed last year for $749,900, reduced to $725,000 and then $699,000. It was recently re-listed at $669,000 and received multiple offers. Anyway, the update is that it sold for more than the original list price of $749,000.

Tuesday Numbers

2007-03-20T23:48:00.000-07:00

They say sales lag listings. Who knows? We'll see. But there's no denying that it was amusing to see today's numbers after the comments generated by the earleir MOI post.

There were 253 new listings today and 211 sales, for a sell/list of 83.40%. Of the sales 21, or 9.95%, went over list. 3 of those were on the Westside. 5 were in East Van, 1 in Port Coquitlam, 2 in Pitt Meadows, 1 in New West, 3 in North Van, 3 in Maple Ridge, 1 in Burnaby, and 2 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $505,001; average sales price was $494,274, a difference of $10,727, meaning the average sale went for 1.88% under list price. 20 properties went for list price. One property went for 14% ($268,000) under list while the highest over list was 14% ($68,500) over.

There were 16 million dollar plus properties sold, with 1 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 47.

There were 159 price changes, of which 34, or 21.38%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $552,542; the average new price was $540,127, a difference of $12,415, meaning the average price change was -1.80%.

Inventory in my target area dropped to 10,275 today, and over 90s also dropped to 2,245, a decrease in percentage to 21.85%. This figure is trending downward.

1.22% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today. There were lots of price changes today, and increases hit a high figure, but there were more reductions.

Is Inventory Growing?

2007-03-20T13:01:00.000-07:00

Is inventory growing? I guess that depends on how you count it. In absolute numbers, inventory is growing. What about month's worth of inventory? That's a figure that takes total listings at month end and divides it by total sales for the month. The idea is that the result gives an indication of how fast the market is absorbing listing inventory. Here are a few numbers from past months.

Total listing count for February was 11,692, while total sales were 2,977; that’s 3.92. Last month’s number was 4.89 months worth of inventory. In December the number was 6.2. It was 2.92 in June ’06.

Reno Update

2007-03-20T12:21:00.000-07:00

Here are two more reno pictures.

This is the view from the street

This shows the Douglas Fir posts installed on the columns.

Monday Numbers

2007-03-19T23:57:00.000-07:00

There were 266 new listings today and 148 sales, for a sell/list of 55.64%. Of the sales 21, or 14.19%, went over list. 6 of those were on the Westside. 1 was in East Van, 1 in Richmond, 1 in Port Coquitlam, 3 in New West, 1 in North Van, 3 in Maple Ridge, 1 in Burnaby, and 4 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $490,737; average sales price was $479,724, a difference of $11,013, meaning the average sale went for 1.82% under list price. 8 properties went for list price. One property went for 12.5% ($338,000) under list while the highest over list was 13% ($62,000) over.

There were 7 million dollar plus properties sold, with 1 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 37.

There were 35 price changes, of which 6, or 17.14%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $436,877; the average new price was $426,902, a difference of $9,975, meaning the average price change was -2.03%.

Inventory in my target area rose to 10,307 today, while over 90s rose slightly to 2,286, an increase in percentage to 22.18%.

0.28% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.

Sunday Trench Report

2007-03-19T11:17:00.001-07:00

I was quite surprised to System Guy's comments this morning:

"I drove by an open house in north van today. There were at least 20 people in that little house!!! The foundation was claimed to have problem and the house has recently been flipped. However, people don't seem to care about it. Yes, the listing price is a lot cheaper then its first failed listing a few months ago.

I saw a mix of people out there... pregnant ladies, old couples, dad with kids, mid aged woman clearly has money... 7 offers"

The surprise is that I am quite sure that System Guy is referring to a little house I know about. Small world! His description is pretty spot on, but I have a small correction and some extra information.

There is a foundation problem. Although it is a patent defect (obvious to any observer, and therefore not required to be dislosed, strictly speaking), all offers had to contain an addendum releasing the seller from any future claims. In addition to current problems (slope in 1/4 of the floor area), there may be some limiting challenges when it comes time to re-build.

The property was listed last year in July for $749,900. The price was reduced to $725,000 in October, and then reduced to $699,000 later that month. The listing expired in December 2006.

We were looking at the property through Janaury and February and trying to negotiate an offer. It was re-listed on MLS on March 12 at $669,000, which was very close to our target price. Of course, by March 12 it was pretty clear that the market had changed in an upward direction. The Agent's Open last week was very busy, and I mentioned then that I detected "muted confidence"
on the part of sellers. That was the day after the property was listed.

Offers were held off until last night (I asked to present early, and was denied). There ended up being 9 offers. We wrote a very strong offer well above our original target price.

The property has reportedly sold for substantially above asking price, and likely above the original July price.

It was not a flip. The current Sellers bought it in 2004 (listed at $609,000, sold for $585,000) and subsequently lived in the house until they moved out of the country for work.

We've seen a preponderance of over-lists in North Van this month, and over the last 2 weeks the sell/lit there has been on the 70% range. This is expensive housing, not the bottom of the market.

Friday Numbers - Inventory Up, Sell/list Down!

2007-03-17T18:43:00.000-07:00

There were 311 new listings Friday and 145 sales, for a sell/list of 46.62%. Of the sales 24, or 16.55%, went over list. 5 of those were on the Westside. 3 were in East Van, 1, in Port Coquitlam, 1 in New West, 3 in North Van, 4 in Maple Ridge, 3 in Burnaby, and 4 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $510,065; average sales price was $498,411, a difference of $11,654, meaning the average sale went for 1.85% under list price. 8 properties went for list price. One property went for 10% ($395,000) under list while the highest over list was 16.5% ($148,000) over.

There were 10 million dollar plus properties sold, with 2 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 35.

There were 64 price changes, of which 11, or 17.19%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $505,236; the average new price was $502,487, a difference of $2,749, meaning the average price change was -0.44%. However, two price changes were huge- the list price of both was essentially doubled. If we exclude those two the respective numbers are $507,533/$491,341/$16,192/-2.63%.

Inventory in my target area rose to 10,189 Friday, ) while over 90s rose dropped again to 2,244, a drop in percentage to 22.02%.

0.52% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced Friday.

I think someone wondered why Friday results are often posted late. It's quite simple: because its Friday. Yesterday was the last day for the framing crew on my house, so I took them some beer and cigars. A few friends dropped by, and the next thing you know it was time for the Giants game. After that, out for a few drinks and some live music at the Chapel. Numbers up, numbers down, that stuff is always more enticing than blogging.

Saturday Numbers

2007-03-17T18:27:00.000-07:00

There were 29 new listings today, and no sales. Its pretty safe to assume that these are broker loaded listings, as opposed to data entered by Board staff. The numbers aren't high enough to indicate Saturday overtime, but they are still much higher than regular Saturdays. February had good numbers from a seller's point of view, but listings are clearly the dominant number in March. If sales don't start catching up I think we'll see flat or lower prices at the end of March.

A Funny Thought Occurred To Me...

2007-03-16T13:24:00.000-07:00

There's a guy named Willard who thinks I'm posting to my own blog under an alias (maybe more than one). Others have suggested similar things, implying that oracleofvancity or vanreinvestor are me in cyber disguise. This brings to mind that saying, currently much used on the editorial page, that when people stop believing in something they don't believe nothing - rather, they believe anything, no matter how farfetched.

That was in the back of my mind as I looked through past comments searching for an MLS number for rentah's suggested vintage wager. Lo and behold, I came across the following:

"however, right now, some find it difficult to justify real estate as nothing will carry. once in awhile you do find something of value (i.e. i found something which cashflows positive with 25% down 1 year ago in the lower mainland, so i promptly purchased it -- and it is worth 25% more now). will i sell? probably not, it carries and i can not have to worry about bleeding"

That's some pretty radical stuff. The writer looked hard and found something with good metrics, promptly bought it, and plans to hold for the long run. 25% down, and the property has gone up 25%, so, unless I'm very much mistaken the writer has made (on paper, granted) 100% on his original investment ($25,000 down on every $100,000 of purchase price, $75,000 mortgage per/$100,000. Its now worth $125,000 for every $100,000 of purchase price. Subtract $75,000 from $125,000 and you have $50,000 for every $25,000 the buyer used to have).

I often advise people to:

-Buy smart, and be diligent with the metrics.
-Hold long term

If you do that you'll be able to weather dowwnturns and enjoy upturns. If the market is strong you might get a good bump (100% in one year in this case), whether you are able to predict it or not.

I wonder if "e" is actually me? ;-)