Rob's NFL Yard

NFL Odds, Week 8: Around the League

2012-11-05T21:52:00.001Z

This picking winners ATS circus needed a turnaround, that of which the New Orleans Saints are looking to embark upon, so why wouldn’t I include them last week as one of three sure things? They’re all sure things before a ball’s been kicked/thrown/run and last week I couldn’t possibly lose. Hell, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees had my back as did...the Buffalo Bills.

Chris Johnson racked up too many yards to fit on to this line at a laughable 10.8 yards per carry and down the swanny went my three timer. Buffalo really was a gimme -3, but who knows when Johnson will actually feel like running for more than 1.6 YPC on any given...Sunday, isn’t it?

Having gone a stupid 1-6 in my previous seven picks, a 2-1 record last week feels like relative nirvana so all apologies to anybody feeling the heat from their wallet; handicapping can drain you.

What awaits in Week 8, apart from the chance for the Seahawks to bury the memory of last week’s loss in San Fran on the Ford Field turf we love to hate.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. My 11-9 record ATS before last week was on legs shakier than a shaken Bambi so I reverted to going on a hunch. Ain’t it ridiculous? Apart from Pink Floyd ever playing together again, we have everything we ever need at our fingertips and yet gut feel gets me over the line in Week 7. Same again this week.

I’m not upset at being 13-10 (I’m not too proud of it either) and if Bill Belichick were to look at it, you’d get “it is what it is”. Yes, Bill, it is. For that, I may just tip up your lot, playing as you are in my home town this week. Wembley welcomes Welker. I have a hunch he may feature.

The acronym ‘BAL’ below each team denotes Best Available Line, for those new to this.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW YORK JETS

BAL Dolphins +2.5...BAL Jets -1

One of those odd occasions when both teams can cover the spread as long as the Jets win by two. Which could easily happen.

This will be played against a backdrop of ill feeling emanating from the fall out of their matchup in Miami in Week 3. Reggie Bush is a marked man, even though the green half of New Jersey would never admit it.

Jets safety LaRon Landry has put the bullseye right between the 2’s on Bush’s jersey and this really is one to watch. I won’t be, obviously, as events in Detroit at the same time are far more hypnotic. Both of these are adept at covering with the Jets perhaps a surprising 5-2 (Dolphins 4-2) and it isn’t one I’d advise on laying down your hard earned for.

In the grand scheme of the AFC, this game is probably inconsequential, but I can’t get enough of this rivalry. It’s rich in history, but don’t bank on getting rich betting on it.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

BAL Chargers -1...BAL Browns +3

Are we really expected to be able to trust San Diego, even -1? Of course! They’re playing a 1-6 Cleveland team. This is like buying money. Except it isn’t.

What I’m about to type could make me look like Lord of the Idiots (George Costanza, I borrow your lines from time to time), but don’t be fooled by the Browns’ record SU. They’re 3-3-1 ATS and 2-1 ATS at home. That makes them dangerous to bet against this week and do you want to back the team that blew a 24 point half time lead last time out? You do? You go for it.

San Diego does have a bunch more to play for than Cleveland and you would hope they’d feel stung by the turnaround suffered at the hands of the Broncos, but this is a Norv Turner coached team so the odds on them being fired up on the road after a bye week are pretty remote.

Take the Browns for a small wager.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at TENNESSEE TITANS

BAL Colts +3.5...BAL Titans -3.5

For those who read this regularly (and I really must thank you both once again), you’ll know I now hate picking Indianapolis and with Tennessee on something of an upward curve, it’s difficult not to like the Titans to cover.

The Colts have developed a consistent record ATS this season, which reads LWLWLW. Naturally, they’re going to fail to cover this week, right? At least we hope so, what with Matt lining up under center in Nashville.

As SU form goes, Indy last won on the road on December 26, 2010 and if the same Chris Johnson bothers to show up as the same Chris Johnson of last week then he’ll dance all day on a Colts run defense that ranks 26^th in the NFL and the Titans will definitely win. It’s tempting to say Tennessee will cover easily here, but I’m wary and I don’t like wary.

Much like with Cleveland, a small bet on the home team.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ‘at’ ST. LOUIS RAMS (Wembley Stadium, London)

BAL Patriots -6.5...BAL Rams +7

Forget that St. Louis is the home team here. They may have been in London since the start of the week and designated the home team, but they’ll feel like the road team come kickoff; Patriots fans will outnumber Rams fans by at least two to one.

The same thing happened last year when Chicago was the road team against Tampa Bay. The Bears are very popular in the UK and the fan ratio was something more like 5:1 come kickoff. You could almost feel they weren’t going to lose and they never came close to doing so.

Yes, the away home team may have lost to the Seahawks and squeaked past the Jets at home over the past two weeks, but I fancy them strongly here. The home away team should keep this one close though and are an impressive 5-2 ATS this season, which does make me lean their way, but I was at Wembley in 2009 when Tom Brady looked sublime against the Buccaneers (a very poor Buccaneers team though) and can see him lighting up the stadium again this week.

It should help New England that they’ve been here before and I do wonder what St. Louis makes of it all. From a Seahawks standpoint, I hope they simply don’t get it, but I think they’ll cover the spread.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

BAL Jaguars +16...BAL Packers -15.5

Green Bay -21, anybody? Nobody would be offended. That said, I can’t back a Packers team giving up this many points as they can be expected to take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and I’m not about to be stung by a garbage time score and the accompanying back door cover.

Maurice Jones-Drew doesn’t play for Jacksonville, the man who accounts for almost a third of the Jaguars’ offensive output. That said, I can’t back a Packers team giving up...you get the picture.

ATLANTA FALCONS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

BAL Falcons +3...BAL Eagles -1

This line looks huge. In favour of Atlanta. At first glance.

At second glance? This line looks huge. In favour of Atlanta.

We have Mr. Regular Season on our side, form that Matt Ryan’s taking in his stride this season, at least if you look at the black and white of a 6-0 record. Two of those wins could easily have been, and probably should have been, home losses to the Panthers and Raiders, two pretty terrible teams, if we’re honest. It’s staggering to think that the Falcons could have played down to such a level, but it could simply be a case of them believing their own hype. They still sit atop many of the Power Rankings lists, but it won’t last.

The crux of their home form could simply be that they’re happier as a road team. They’ve won their three home games by a combined 11 points. On the road, that number jumps out to 47 and includes victories in San Diego and Washington.

Philadelphia. Where to start with Philadelphia? A team seemingly endlessly beset by internal strife, they’ve dropped two (close ones) straight and are 1-2 ATS at home. Something else to consider this week is Michael Vick. Will he try just a little too hard against his former team? When he tries a little too hard normally he rarely emerges with the winning ticket. Yes, he may just be inspired this week, but I’ll still take the Falcons and the three points in my back pocket.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

BAL Redskins +5...BAL Steelers -4.5

Why do I love Washington +5? They’ve covered the spread in three of their last four, but it’s tough to ask a team led by a rookie quarterback (even one as dynamic as Robert Griffin III) to go to Pittsburgh having lost a heart breaker to a division rival (Giants) a week earlier on the road. However, despite them being a tad erratic this season, they are 3-1 ATS as the underdog.

The Steelers are gradually nursing themselves back to health (Troy Polamalu aside) and before stifling the Bengals last Sunday night were 1-4 ATS, but lest we forget that this is Pittsburgh with Ben Roethliberger at quarterback and they are of course more than capable of winning this by ten.

I like the ‘Skins as an underdog though and stick to my opening rhetoric.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at CHICAGO BEARS

BAL Panthers +9...BAL Bears -7.5

In a perfect snapshot of how these two teams’ respective seasons have gone, Carolina enters this one on the back of the firing of GM Marty Hurney and Warren Moon citing racism as the reason for any criticism of quarterback Cam Newton.

Chicago have had to deal with the shattering news that receiver Brandon Marshall was fined this week for wearing orange cleats against Detroit on Monday Night Football. Serious stuff.

Yes, here we are, back with my Super Bowl XLVII pick and of course I’m happy at this week’s matchup. However, it’s not such a sure thing ATS. As much of a shambles as the Panthers have (surprisingly?) been this season (and ATS...2-4), the only other time they’ve been an underdog on this scale was when they were afforded eight points in Atlanta, a game they really should have won SU, but the Falcons are better on the road anyway, as we know.

Then there’s the not insignificant fact of the Bears possibly looking past this one and a schedule presenting far greater challenges than the clawless bunch coming to town this week. After this comes an improving Titans (a), Houston (h), San Francisco (a), Minnesota (h), Seattle (h), Minnesota (a), Green Bay (h).

The Panthers could just be quite the good thing here.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

BAL Raiders +1.5...BAL Chiefs -1

The erratic Raiders at the even more erratic Chiefs with both teams sharing 2- 4 records ATS. This is probably the most dangerous game to bet on this week. I’ll leave you to it as I don’t have an opinion on this one and don’t want to have an opinion on this one.

NEW YORK GIANTS at DALLAS COWBOYS

BAL Giants -1...BAL Cowboys +2.5

This is the time of the season when must win games absolutely exist, a far cry from the euphoria felt in Dallas when they assertively stole the W from the defending Super Bowl champions in their own back yard on opening night.

Should the Cowboys not repeat their Week 1 feat here, they’ll be two-and-a-half games behind the Giants and temporarily out of the wild card race behind Green Bay and Minnesota and quite possibly Arizona and Seattle...and that doesn’t even include the possible threat still posed by New Orleans. That’s a dark horizon indeed yet all is not that bad...hang on, it is if you want to bet on Dallas ATS.

Every bad run in sports comes to an end against some embarrassed team, but the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and the Big Blue are 4-1-1 ATS since their Week 1 wake up call, an alarm that clearly had the desired effect.

The Giants could easily return to the Super Bowl while Dallas has played well since their bye week and should really have won in Baltimore two weeks ago, going down 31-29 despite being the better team on the day. The latter point is a part of following sports teams I know only too well and I’ll always embrace the pleasure-pain principle.

That can only mean I take the rollercoaster Cowboys to beat the Giants for the first time in four attempts in their new stadium, including the 2.5 points on offer.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at DENVER BRONCOS

BAL Saints +6...BAL Broncos -5.5

I can’t wait for this one, no matter that it starts at 1:20 a.m. GMT. I ain’t missing it and the un-Godly hour only adds to the sense of occasion.

This one is for enjoyment purposes only so I’ll be accompanied by the finest bottle of Malbec I can lay my hands on and the very handy six points available on the Saints. Yes, they may well lose to the Broncos, but they’ve won three on the bounce ATS and I like my chances with my hard earned on them this week.

Just for further enjoyment, buy on the over/under of 55.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

BAL 49ers -6.5...BAL Cardinals +7

This just looks like a good line on Arizona. Yes, I’ll give you that they’re on the slide somewhat and may struggle to develop any semblance of a running game, but in what could be a physical divisional matchup on Monday Night Football, I like the Cardinals receiving a touchdown start.

OK, to recap, my ‘Aaron Curry’ is Carolina +9, my bet of the week is Atlanta + 3 while I also like St. Louis +7 and New Orleans + 6.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 8: Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

2012-11-05T21:45:00.000Z

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at DETROIT LIONS

As this is a betting column, what would the odds have been on Detroit entering Week 8 owning the league’s second ranked passing offense (307 yards per game)? Probably quite short, you’d think.

What would the odds have been on that second ranked passing offense having Calvin Johnson with a solitary touchdown to his name? You would have been able to make up your own odds. Go away quietly now son, this ain’t no time to be fooling with the oddsmakers. It ain’t gonna happen so have whatever price you like. And just like that we all fattened our pockets on the Matthew Stafford to Johnson conduit becoming as clogged as a hardening artery.

Perhaps as a reminder of Johnson’s sporting mortality or simply because Seattle’s brashest young cornerback has a reputation to maintain as Seattle’s brashest young cornerback, Richard Sherman added a little spice to this contest by transforming his Twitter handle this week to ‘Optimus Prime’, a burst of friendly fire in the direction of Johnson’s ‘Megatron’ moniker.

This wasn’t so much Sherman calling Johnson out, as many in the media have portrayed it (but why wouldn’t they?), more a reminder of who’s coming to town and Johnson took it superbly well, simply saying, “Self-given nickname. Hey, if that’s who he wants to be, that’s cool.” No, what’s cool is that you ain’t mad, bro, and despite it being a relatively innocent gesture on Sherman’s part (with only a slight hint of mischief mixed in), I’ll wager Sherman was hoping for a meatier response from Johnson. Despite him being the opposition this week, you have to like a player who decides he’ll let his football do the talking.

Dare you bet against the Seahawks this week as the underdog? In plain old black and white, no you don’t. They’re 5-0 ATS as the ‘dog and can be backed +2.5 this week. The Lions (available -1) are 2-4 ATS on the season and 0-2 ATS at home as the favourite, failing to cover at Ford Field against the Rams and Vikings. Seattle are sure to prove popular among bettors based on all of that, but that run will come to an end somewhere and it’s more likely to happen on the road that at the CLink.

I’m all for backing a team coming off an emotional loss, particularly a contender (even of the wild card variety) and the Seahawks will know that, but for some abysmal drops among its backs and receivers last week, they would have pushed the 49ers a lot closer than 13-6. I appreciate that I’m preaching to the converted here, but Seattle can easily win this SU so any points on offer is simply a bonus and I’ll say here, long before the end of this post, that I think the Seahawks will win from scratch.

Frank Gore showed other running backs the way last week, rushing for 131 yards on Seattle’s vaunted run defense, each of his 16 attempts going straight up the gut, between the tackles. It was alarming to watch from a biased viewpoint and is thankfully something unlikely to be repeated this week. Mikel LeShoure, Kevin Smith and Joique Bell aren’t names to strike fear into that aforementioned run D, averaging as they are 4 yards per carry as a committee. ‘Megatron’, over to you.

Ex-Seahawk Nate Burleson was lost for the season this week after suffering a leg fracture last Monday against the Bears and he’ll certainly be missed, if for no other reason than he leads Detroit in receiving touchdowns this season with two. Yes, two. I’ve just had to triple check that the Lions really do rank second in the league in passing.

Titus Young and Ryan Broyles will be expected to step up some in Burleson’s absence, but that won’t overly worry Seattle’s secondary. Not this week. Johnson naturally will for sure, but Stafford isn’t enjoying a stellar season, throwing five touchdowns against six interceptions and the Lions really are there for the taking. Football can seem such a simple game sometimes.

Detroit struggled mightily last week in Chicago, only getting on the scoreboard with 30 seconds remaining when Broyles caught the first touchdown of his pro career. Perhaps it’s a mite harsh of me to say they struggled mightily as it’s not as though they didn’t move the ball, but three red zone turnovers is unforgivable.

The Bears boast a top ten defense, as does Seattle, and while it’s easy to think that the Lions can be expected to struggle again this week, playing on the road at a division rival on a hot streak on a Monday night is a far cry from playing at home to a team who struggle to pass the ball effectively.

Labouring the obvious point, it must be hoped that Marshawn Lynch can shred Detroit’s run defense for more than the 108.8 yards per game they’re currently yielding. He and Robert Turbin both average 4.4 yards per carry and have combined for only two touchdowns, which doesn’t properly tell the full story of Seattle’s eighth ranked rushing offense.

The Lions are likely to dare Russell Wilson to pass on them as he won’t project any fear into a Detroit pass defense giving up 210.5 yards per game through the air, good for sixth in the NFL. While Wilson isn’t easily flustered, he’s thrown each of his seven interceptions this season on the road. That said, he put the ball in exactly the right place plenty of times on the road last week and can’t account for his targets not sticking to their end of the bargain.

Last week’s loss in San Francisco was hard to swallow and the more I research this game and write about it, the more the feeling exists that the Seahawks are the more motivated for this one. I base it on a lingering hurt from last week and the knowledge in Seattle that this team plays five of its last eight games at its fortress of a home stadium, where Wilson has yet to throw a pick and boasts a 116.9 passer rating.

To leave Detroit with a 5-3 record and the most brutal part of the schedule in the rear view mirror would keep them firmly in the division title hunt and at worst bang in the mix for a wild card spot. I would have settled for that after eight games.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 7: Around the League

2012-11-05T21:38:00.002Z

I have to begin this post by being honest. I’m 1-6 in my last seven picks. I did start 10-3 though, so we’re still showing a small profit on the season. I could list the excuses or the reasons why, but that only looks like sour grapes.

How to turn this thing around? Maybe look at the games this week and go with the hunch, the team I fancy because...well, just because. No science, no looking deeper than needs to be done. Oh yes, it’s a slap dash, scattergun approach this week, but I’m still not over the Seahawks’ loss to the 49ers. Week 7 can go jump in the lake. Damn Thursday Night Football, despite the fact I’d get up in the middle of the night here in London to watch the Seahawks were they playing every Thursday night.

I need us to be playing Detroit right here, right now and just listen to the petulance in that. On the subject of hunches, I see Seattle bouncing back next week. However, more of that...next week. For those with the interest, the Seahawks are available +3.5 before Detroit visits Chicago on MNF.

The acronym ‘BAL’ below each team denotes Best Available Line, for those new to this.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

BAL Cardinals +7...BAL Vikings -6

Arizona drop two straight and Minnesota don’t suddenly become bad after losing in Washington. The Vikings have smashed the 49ers and Titans in their last two dome games and should be too hot for the Cards.

A win here gives them an early Wild Card tiebreaker over Arizona. As for covering by a touchdown, you gotta like the chances. A small wager here on the Vikes.

DALLAS COWBOYS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

BAL Cowboys -1...BAL Panthers +2

Two teams desperate for a win, but particularly amazing to think that of Dallas after getting the W against the Giants on the road on opening night.

Two teams uninspiring ATS this season (2-3).

Two teams to avoid laying a dime on this week.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

BAL Saints -1...BAL Buccaneers +2.5

Tampa covered the spread as the favourite for the first time this season last week and have excelled at covering as the underdog (3-0). N’Awlins may benefit from having their bye week. Well, that said, tight end Jimmy Graham hasn’t even travelled so maybe I don’t know what I’m talking about.

I’m looking forward to this one (not quite as much as I am the Redskins/Giants matchup). The Saints are improving and I could make a case for both teams. However, despite the Bucs dishing it all out on the Chiefs last week, New Orleans need this divisional win or their season is probably over.

Drew Brees will be motivated beyond belief for this one and I take the Saints cover.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at ST. LOUIS RAMS

BAL Packers -4.5...BAL Rams +5.5

This is tricky. Spread form says to take the Rams and the points all day long. They’re 3-0 ATS at home and 5-1 ATS on the season, but to bet against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers after the hell they unleashed in Houston last week? This is tricky.

Green Bay are a game and a half behind the Bears, who should beat Detroit at home this week so, not unlike New Orleans, the Packers really need this. They won’t lose and they will cover the spread. Call it a hunch.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at NEW YORK GIANTS

BAL Redskins +6.5...BAL Giants -5.5

The game of the week (behind Seahawks/49ers). Yes, more than Ravens/Texans. The Giants are showing Super Bowl winning form as only they know how. It must be infuriating being a fan, but they know how to get it done when it really matters and two Lombardi trophies in five seasons makes them the envy of the league. It’s a (Big) blueprint for success that not many teams look to follow, which is unusual in a copycat league. I’m rambling somewhat and need to get back to hunching.

The Redskins and the points, if you don’t mind.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at HOUSTON TEXANS

BAL Ravens +7...BAL Texans -6

I wonder if Houston would have swapped a Brian Cushing injury for a Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb Ravens double blow before this week. Yeah, probably.

The victor here claims the early home field advantage playoff tiebreaker. All roads to New Orleans in the AFC will go through...~~Baltimore~~ Houston, but look for the Patriots to spoil both of their parties.

As for this one, I think I love the Ravens plus a touchdown. I think.

TENNESSEE TITANS at BUFFALO BILLS

BAL Titans +3.5...BAL Bills -3

This line looks skinny. Tennessee is 0-3 on the road this season, both SU and ATS. What’s not to like about the Bills -3? Not very much at all.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

BAL Browns +3...BAL Colts -1

Despite getting their first win of the season last week, Cleveland is a respectable 3-2-1 ATS on the season. I predicted Indy’s demise against the Jets last week, my sole win ATS in my last seven picks, but this is much more difficult to look at.

I want to encourage backing the Colts to win by just two, but simply don’t trust them, ever since they lost at home to the Jaguars in Week 3, having led 14-3 at the half.

I don’t actually mind the Browns as a franchise and hope they do a number on Indianapolis on Sunday, no matter how small. However, my hands won’t be reaching for the wallet.

NEW YORK JETS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

BAL Jets +10.5...BAL Patriots -10.5

The New England Hatriots whenever these two meet. The Patriots will be hurting massively after losing in Seattle and you can bet that Tom Brady will be mad, bro.

How these two are both 3-3 when one of them is clearly a lot better than the other is a nice little anomaly and one I’m happy not to have to dwell on. I wrote in my Patriots/Seahawks preview last week that to bet against Tom Brady can be foolhardy, but I like my chances of that again this week.

I’m loath to say that form goes out the window whenever these two meet, but I like the Jets and the points a lot more than I do the Patriots to win by more than a touchdown and a field goal.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at OAKLAND RAIDERS

BAL Jaguars +6.5...BAL Raiders -4

A game that only the respective teams mothers could love. One of the only two times Jacksonville has covered the spread this season is when I categorically said they wouldn’t, in Indianapolis in Week 3. Oakland boasts an identical 2-3 record against the spread that includes covering in Atlanta last week, a game they could easily have won SU.

Over their last three games the Raiders have been good, terrible and good so does another disappointing performance await this week? It’s likely against a team they’ll hardly be motivated against.

I have to like the Jags +6.5, but anybody liking the home team minus four shouldn’t be dissuaded either. Pick your poison, fellas.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

BAL Steelers -1...BAL Bengals +1.5

Cincinnati is way too inconsistent to have any real faith in, particularly against a line this skinny while Pittsburgh are 1-4 ATS this season (0-3 ATS on the road).

The Bengals could make something of a statement in this game, but they always falter against the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North, a division I love, by the way.

Avoid betting on this at all costs.

DETROIT LIONS at CHICAGO BEARS

BAL Lions +6.5...BAL Bears -5

On to Chicago, my Super Bowl XLVII pick (at 33-1). I’m happy enough with where they’re at and am relatively confident of them going 5-1 on the season after this one. However, I’m wary of the line.

I don’t care how the Bears win this, just as long as they do and as I already have money riding on them outright, I won’t be laying any more on them this week. My hunch is that Detroit will cover, if I’m honest.

Right, to wrap up, my ‘Aaron Curry’ is Green Bay -4.5 while my bet of the week is Buffalo -3. In addition, I can’t look past New Orleans -1. Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 7: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

2012-11-05T21:29:00.002Z

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Seattle are proving impossible to bet against whenever they’re the underdog this season. However, as promising a trend as that’s becoming, this week may prove to be a little different. To get the nuts and bolts out of the way, the Seahawks are available +7.5; the hometown 49ers can be backed -6.5.

Prior to the season beginning, I had half promised myself to put down some of my hard earned on every home team playing on a Thursday to cover the spread. To ask a team to travel on the shortest week there possibly can be in the NFL makes them a liability to bet on, even when being offered points, wouldn’t you think? Well, yes, except that this year both the Giants and Browns covered the spread on the road on a Thursday night with the Big Blue positively smashing the line out of sight in Carolina.
Some of you may point out that the Giants were on the receiving end of a midweek home loss in Week 1, but I don’t include that as Dallas hadn’t played the previous week and weren’t travelling after being battered for four quarters (preseason doesn’t count, especially for the starters on opening day). Still, if you do want to include that contest, the home team is 3-3 ATS this season on a Wednesday/Thursday.

The Seahawks are riding a solid trend heading into San Francisco this week as they’re 4-0 ATS as the underdog, twice as 3.5 ‘dogs (Packers, Patriots) and twice as 3 point ‘dogs (Cowboys, Panthers). The small wrinkle in that stat though is that three of those games were at home. This is the first time they’ve been given more than a touchdown start so what’s not to like about them? A couple of things.

Firstly, Seattle’s coming off an emotional win at home. Secondly, the 49ers are coming off a near disastrous loss at home. The latter in itself makes San Fran stupidly dangerous this week. Dealing with the Seahawks first, remember the last time they came off an emotional home win before hitting the road en route to a division rival? They bombed in St. Louis. Remember the last time the Niners felt the sting of defeat? They won their next two games by a combined score of 79-3.

This game is exactly what San Francisco need, a home game against an upstart division rival with everything to play for. To lose here means Seattle goes ahead in the tie break (should one be required at season’s end) with the only chance to level that out coming in Week 16 in the most intimidating stadium in the NFL. Don’t believe for a second that the 49ers will be on a downer after last Sunday. No, they’ll be ecstatic this game is taking place on a Thursday night.

I wrote after the Seahawks’ MNF win over Green Bay in Week 3 that that was arguably the most emotional win in franchise history. For my money, last week’s stunning comeback win against the Patriots meant more. Seattle was forever in the game against the Packers. Against New England, they were practically out of the game when the Pats took a 23-10 lead in the final quarter.

While I am wary of a letdown this week, it’s better to be on the road in San Francisco than, say, away to Jacksonville. For a start, the game takes place in the same time zone as the Pacific Northwest. In addition, the 49ers are a contender, which gives this game a playoff feel and less chance of the Seahawks resting on any laurels they may currently possess. Should they be travelling to face the Jaguars, the notion may exist that bigger fish to fry await down the road somewhere. There aren’t many bigger fish to us Seahawks than San Francisco.

Tom Brady torched Seattle’s lauded secondary for 395 yards last week, something that Alex Smith should come nowhere close to on Thursday, averaging, as the Niners are, 210.2 yards per game through the air, 26^th in the league. The Seahawks fare even worse, ranking 31^st in the NFL in pass offense and as anybody with more than a passing interest in this gladiatorial chess will tell you, this game, offensively, likely rests on which team runs the ball better, with the home team having the edge, bringing to the table their number one ranked rushing outfit.

Frank Gore has previous against Seattle, rushing for 200 yards against them twice in his career, but that aforementioned league leading ground attack is up against a Seahawks run defense giving up just 70 yards per game. This could be brutal and low scoring, a throwback to decades past and it’s the kind of football I love. San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh put it best this week when he said of this matchup: “We’ve got a football fight coming.” Can this season of Seahawk football please never come to an end?

For the final part of this, I’m going to tip my hat to our SB Nation partners, OddsShark, who offer up a few gems, stones I couldn’t let pass me by.

Seattle is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 games.

Seattle has lost three straight at Candlestick Park and are 0-3 ATS in those games.

San Francisco is 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 games at home.

Both teams are 4-2 SU and ATS this season.

These two have split their last 10 games 5-5 SU with Seattle holding a 6-4 advantage ATS.

PickShark.com tip the Seahawks +7.5.

As do I.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 6: Around the League

2012-11-05T21:22:00.004Z

I’m beginning to wish I wasn’t so hooked on picking teams against the spread. Having been sitting pretty with a 10-3 record as Week 4 came to a close, I’m now 10-7, on a four game skid, including 0-3 last week. Last week...hmmm.

Cleveland decided to go against type against the Giants in New Jersey. They were 3-0 ATS this season when available with at least a seven point start. The ten points on offer last week looked too good to be true. Turns out it was.

After what amounted to quite an impressive road win (ATS, too) in Jacksonville two weeks ago, the Bengals went bust at home to the Dolphins, despite holding Reggie Bush to just 48 rushing yards. They led 6-0 at the end of the first quarter and were covering the spread right there. I remembered afterwards that Cincinnati were too unreliable to bet on last year so I’m wary for the rest of the season unless I see a ridiculous chink in the Vegas armour.

Houston’s never just six points the better team over the Jets, even on the road, but that’s what happened last week and with Arian Foster rushing for 152 yards, no less. The Texans were never going to lose that game and I thought the line of -7.5 was amazing value; it crept up to ten towards kickoff. In hindsight, I failed to look ahead to their Week 6 matchup...the Packers at home on primetime on Sunday night, a possible Super Bowl preview. I should’ve known better.

One crumb is that Week 6 can’t go as bad as last week. Let’s take a look. (The acronym BAL below each team denotes Best Available Line, for those new to this).

Before we do, however, for those that care for these posts (and I thank you both), this week will be a little different as I’ll just be commenting on the games I see ripe for betting on. My apologies for the truncated post.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at ATLANTA FALCONS

BAL Raiders +9.5...BAL Falcons -9

Atlanta will remain unbeaten after this one, at 6-0. Will they be 5-1 ATS? It should happen. Oakland’s given up 103 points over its past three games and they face a Falcons team averaging 29.6 points per game. In addition, as mentioned above with regards looking ahead at a team’s schedule, if we do that with Atlanta, they enter their bye week after this one so no problematic road test coming up. Not, that is, until they travel to Philly in two weeks time.

I look at this matchup with the Raiders possibly being afforded a 12 point start. In fact, I may even be happy laying 14. They’re coming off a 37-6 hammering from the Broncos and yes, they had their bye last week, which obviously gives a team time to pore over every mistake (where do you begin in Oakland?), but there’s other factors at play.

The bye week can have a positive effect, from regrouping to re-organising to giving players extra time to recover from injury, but it can also disrupt rhythm and this is something the Raiders didn’t have in Denver. On the road in Atlanta against a home team with enough rhythm to make even Victor Cruz envious makes this a nightmare matchup for Oakland.

The Raiders are truly horrible away from the Coliseum this season, losing 35-13 in Miami before the aforementioned debacle in Denver two weeks ago. In addition, this game takes place at 10 a.m. PT for the Silver and Black. Basically, I’m struggling to find any reason why this game shouldn’t be a blowout.

Oakland rank 12^th overall defensively so that’s a positive, right? Wrong. It’s a misleading stat due to them having played one game less than most of the teams in the league. They’re giving up 411.5 yards per game and ‘boast’ a pass defense that ranks 27^th in the league and a run defense that ranks 24^th. Oh my, this is getting uglier.

It’s likely that the Raiders will be playing catch up, which means it’s even more likely that their 32^nd ranked run offense (60.8 YPG...ouch) will remain in that position once the game has finished. The Falcons don’t defend the run at all well (28^th), but Oakland will need to find yards through the air to stay on pace, something that Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer can certainly do.

Without being prolific (5 TDs, 2 INTs), Palmer’s averaging 258 yards per game directing a passing offense that ranks 12^th in the NFL. However, Atlanta’s stout against the pass, yielding 203 yards per game through the air. I have to think that if the Falcons don’t cover a nine point spread here, then they never will. Ever.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at NEW YORK JETS

BAL Colts +3.5...BAL Jets -3

Indianapolis loses SU and ATS at home to Jacksonville in Week 3, having led 14-3 at halftime. After their bye week, they trail (the still mighty?) Green Bay Packers 21-3 at half time, only to turn it around in the second half and win both SU and ATS. Wow. Wow is great, but never trust this team with your hard earned at the moment.

I wouldn’t be one bit shocked if they lost by ten this week, as ridiculous as that sounds. Much like the Seahawks were when travelling to St. Louis the week after the ‘Fail Mary’ against the Packers on MNF, the Colts are coming off one of the most emotional victories in franchise history, if not the most emotional.

That makes them extremely dangerous to bet on this week and I take the Jets to cover the spread and then some. The oddity about two of the most talked about games this season is that the Packers were the team on the receiving end both times.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

BAL Vikings +3...BAL Redskins -3

This is an interesting line when looking back at the Redskins’ form ATS this season. They’ve been favoured by three points, as they are here, on two previous occasions, against the Rams and Bengals, games they proceeded to lose, both SU and ATS. If you fancy Washington to buck that trend here, caveat emptor.

Minnesota, on the other hand, are a covering machine right now, winning games handsomely and covering the spread with aplomb. They’re rightly the underdog this week, but to think they’re able to lose a close one by a point or two and we’re still able to collect represents tremendous value for a hot team. Before the season began, I didn’t once envision labeling the Vikings a hot team through seventeen weeks, but they are and we’d better get used to the idea before they travel to Seattle on November 4.

Defensively, Minnesota rank in the top 10 overall (9^th) and 6^th against the run, the latter being a particularly salient statistic as they’re up against a rampant Redskins rookie running game that has Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin III averaging 4.9 and 5.7 yards per carry respectively. Speaking of RG3, I do wonder whether he’ll have last week’s concussion in the back of his mind. Ordinarily, he’s fearless, but the hit he took last Sunday looked nasty and I’m intrigued as to how he plays when flushed out of the pocket this week. His injury is playing a major part in me liking the Vikings even more than I already did.

Christian Ponder is getting it done at quarterback for Minnesota and his 69% completion percentage is impressive. He’s fortunate to have the almost indomitable Percy Harvin to throw the ball to, who ranks joint second in the league with 38 receptions. Washington’s pass defense is there to be picked on, giving up as it does a whopping 328 yards per game and Harvin can be expected to be targeted often. This particular facet of the matchup works ridiculously well in the Vikings’ favour and I like the start they’re receiving the more I delve into the figures.

The surprise team in the NFC North (in the entire NFL?) this season will undoubtedly see a couple of the wheels fall off before too long, but there are no warning signs as yet and there certainly wasn’t over the past three weeks. Over confidence may be their downfall, but nobody gave them a chance at the beginning of the season so they’re entitled to feel a little good about themselves.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at HOUSTON TEXANS

BAL Packers +3.5...BAL Texans -3

I do have to mention here that, while I wouldn’t advocate betting on this one, doesn’t Green Bay represent amazing value due to the simple fact that they can’t possibly begin the season 2-4? Just a thought.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 6: New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks

2012-11-05T21:15:00.004Z

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

It’s unwise to bet against Tom Brady. Only do so when there are at least three good reasons to do so. Those (lucky enough to be) predisposed to throwing caution to the wind may disregard the opening two sentences and if such a nature permeates your bones, then being able to back the Seahawks as a home underdog (+3.5) will be right up your alley.

Are there three reasons to bet against Brady this week? You bet your life there is.

Home field advantage. Conventional wisdom has it that Seattle and Kansas City can lay claim to being the two toughest cities to play in. It isn’t even close this season and Patriots coach Bill Belichick has said that he thinks CenturyLink Field might be the loudest stadium that his team’s been in. It is. He went on to add, unsurprisingly, that it’s a huge home field advantage for Seattle. It is.

Statistically, the Seahawks are the league’s number one ranked defense, giving up just 258.6 yards per game, ranking 4^th against the pass and third against the run. The latter may be tested significantly this week as New England enter town having put together their first back to back 200 yard rushing performances since 1978.

Stevan Ridley is the main man Patriots fans can thank for that and he averages an extremely healthy 4.8 yards per carry, but that does tail in behind his running partner in crime, undrafted rookie Brandon Bolden, who averages 5.6 yards a pop. Bolden’s officially questionable, but is expected to play. In fact, if he does, he may see his playing time increase as Ridley isn’t averse to coughing the ball up, an issue that placed him in Belichick’s dog house during the playoffs last season. Seattle’s opportunistic D will be waiting should Ridley play flash the fumble.

So, home field and defense bodes well for the Seahawks. The third reason why it’s OK to bet against Brady this week? The small matter of strongside linebacker Dont’a Hightower missing his second straight game. Hightower’s good against the run and his immediate backup, Tracy White, is also out, making the visitors vulnerable on that side of the field. It’s the worst kept secret in the NFL that the Patriots need to key in on stopping Marshall Lynch (and Robert Turbin) and losing Hightower may have caused some defensive headaches on the cross country flight.

Not that it can’t ever be relied upon, but the 12^th Man will be needed, and early, should New England begin as they did last Sunday. Brady ran a quick, no-huddle offense against the Broncos last week and it does remains to be seen whether the same tactic will be deployed this week. It would certainly help limit any defensive adjustments the Seahawks want to make between plays, but Brady may tire of having to keep barking out orders over a noise he wouldn’t have heard this season. It’s one thing to play super fast at Gillette, quite another to attempt to get away with it at the Clink.

As form covering the spread goes, the Patriots are no slouches this season. They’re 4-1 ATS with the sole failure to cover being their shocker at home to Arizona in Week 2. They were favoured by 13.5 points against the Cardinals, but on the three occasions this season when they’ve been favoured by less than seven, they’ve covered each time. They’re available -3 this week so that trend is in their favour.

Assuming that Hightower’s absence is as relevant as it looks on paper, Lynch’s continued efforts will help keep the pressure off of Russell Wilson. It’s not as though he doesn’t look as though he can’t handle the pressure of being an NFL quarterback, but he’s making mistakes. However, he was always going to. I’m loath to sledgehammer any points home (particularly on this site), but it’s why stats in the preseason count for absolutely nothing.

As electric as Wilson looked then, the learning curve against pro defensive starters is steep. However, he’s in the perfect system. The coaching staff aren’t rushing him along, he’s surrounded by the dream supporting cast of both a running game and a defense to die for and it can be argued that Seattle is the most perfect fit for him in the entire league. He’s a lucky fella, as are we to be watching a team such as this. Be careful what you wish for. It’s a good time to be supporting the Seahawks and, devastating injuries aside, 2013 is looking scarily good.

Wilson is helped this week by looking over at a Patriots pass defense that ranks 29^th in the league. It really is New England’s Achilles heel and when the time comes to throw, he just has to forget that Belichick is the brains behind it and how he simply loves setting schemes to stymie and fool rookie QBs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson toss a pick or two, but it won’t anger me. I’ll feel frustration, but our defense is one that Belichick would love to get his hands on and the Seahawks should be able to keep this one close until the very end.

This matchup truly is the case of the irresistible force against the immovable object: New England’s No. 1 ranked offense against Seattle’s No. 1 ranked defense. Something’s gotta give and the form book looks favourably on both teams. I mentioned earlier how the line suits the Patriots, but the same can be said of the Seahawks. They’re 2-0 ATS at home this season as a 3 or 3.5 underdog. Same line today, folks.

Brace yourselves. This one promises to be too good. The Seahawks plus the points.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 5: Around the League

2012-11-05T21:02:00.001Z

The outcome of Monday Night Football last week was a bittersweet result for me. I had pushed my record ATS to 10-3 on the season when New England did the biggest number on the Bills in Buffalo during an otherworldly second half performance and Minnesota easily covered in Detroit when given 4.5 points against the Lions.

Dallas looked extremely good -3 at home to Chicago and still do bar Tony Romo throwing five picks, two being returned for touchdowns. However, how bad could it be? I can still boast a 10-4 record after four weeks and I backed the Bears to win this thing outright at 33/1 back in August so I was glad they made a statement, particularly after their demoralising loss in Green Bay in Week 2.

Last week was tough to predict, which is why I only went with three picks. Let’s see what spreads are available in Week 5 and where the potential betting gems lay.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

BAL Eagles +3.5...BAL Steelers -3

As I’ve written previously, I’m a big fan of the Ohio derbies, when the Browns and Bengals meet twice a season, but this pairing off in Pennsylvania takes place a lot less frequently. However, less is more and this is one to really enjoy.

Pittsburgh’s coming off a bye week after a disappointing failure to cover the spread against an Oakland team going nowhere fast. Where does that leave the Steelers? Aside from being a game and a half behind Baltimore and the aforementioned Bengals, they also possess an inability to run the ball this year, something that goes very much against type in Steel Town. They rank 31^st in run offense, but this contest is about so much more than that.

You might think Philly’s worth backing here with the points and here’s why: they became the first team in NFL history to achieve their first three wins in a season by two points or less. So, take the 3.5 points on offer and let them do their worst.

No, back the Steelers instead and here’s why: the Eagles are coming off an emotional win against the Giants and, while it isn’t far to travel to Pittsburgh, the hosts welcome back three hometown superstars in Rashard Mendenhall, James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. This is maybe one of the bets of the week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

BAL Packers -7...BAL Colts +7

As this column looks at all things betting in the NFL, what odds would you have got on the Packers having the 18^th ranked offense after four weeks of the season? Or being 1-3 ATS? Don’t, it’s a little too much to take in.

I never had New Orleans running Green Bay as close as they did last Sunday, especially after what had transpired in Seattle the previous Monday night. I’d pegged the Pack to blow the Saints out of the water and am only thankful I didn’t tip them up as worth any of your hard earned.

Indianapolis are coming in off their bye week, but they went into it on the back of a desperately disappointing home loss to Jacksonville. I’d tipped them to easily cover the spread (-2.5) and I was counting my winnings when they led 14-3 at half time. I haven’t thought kindly of Andrew Luck since and kinda want the Packers to run riot on the Colts this week. However, it’s hard to trust even Aaron Rodgers to do that right now.

Tentatively, I take Indy to lose, but to cover the spread.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at NEW YORK GIANTS

BAL Browns +10...BAL Giants -9.5

What to make of the New York Giants this season? Much like the beginning of last season, if you ask me. What’s that? OK, I’ll give you that. You weren’t.

The Big Blue burst into life in Carolina with a much depleted team on primetime in Week 3 and last week was an emotional loss to the hated Eagles, which does make them a dangerous team this week, despite being without Hakeem Nicks for the third straight game on Sunday. However, it’s fair to argue how desperately the Giants actually miss him, considering they still possess the league’s second ranked passing offense; Victor Cruz, after a couple of early drops, is having a quite sensational time of it in 2012.

It’s hardly ideal for Cleveland to be travelling to MetLife Stadium a week after losing in Baltimore, but they would have had ten days to recover once kickoff rolls around. In addition, from a spread betting viewpoint, they’ve covered the spread twice so far this season as a heavy underdog. The first was when being given a nine point start at home to the Eagles in Week 1 and they covered again versus the Ravens last week, with a 12 point start.

I like Cleveland a lot here.

ATLANTA FALCONS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

BAL Falcons -3...BAL Redskins +3

Washington last week brought to a shuddering halt the spread covering machine that had been the Buccaneers when they won straight up in Tampa and +3 on the handicap. This week they welcome a soaring Falcons team and these are high flying birds Noel Gallagher would be proud of.

For a team averaging 31 points per game (3^rd in the league), Atlanta strangely ranks 15^th in overall offense, an anomaly that I won’t begin to get to grips with here. Flipping that on its head and looking at the Redskins’ offense, they should be able to run the ball all day on the Falcons as their second ranked run offense (171 YPG) comes face to face with Atlanta’s 29^th ranked run defense. I’m already intrigued as to how the time of possession battle pans out in this one.

Conversely, Matt Ryan (69.4 completion percentage, 11 TDs, 2 INTs), Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones will force their talents on a Washington pass D ranked next to last in the NFL.

This has the makings of a shootout and it’s no surprise that the over/under stands at 50. BUY! BUY! BUY!

Leave this one well alone and just enjoy it for what it is...with a sneaky buck or two on the over, of course.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

BAL Dolphins +4.5...BAL Bengals -3.5

If the odds on Green Bay having the 18^th ranked offense after four weeks of the NFL season is something arguably none of us could have predicted, the sportsbooks would’ve let you pick any price you like for Brian Hartline to be leading the league in receiving yards after four weeks. And that with a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball. Some things that transpire in the NFL truly are beyond reasonable explanation.

After losing heavily in Baltimore in Week 1, Cincinnati have hit their stride, winning three on the bounce and covering the spread on each occasion, including twice in a row on the road over the past two weeks.

Miami may be 1-3 on the season, but they’re 3-1 ATS. That’s impressive and they have been helped by a league leading run defense yielding just 56.8 yards per game. I didn’t see them covering the spread (+6.5) in Arizona last Sunday, but I honestly don’t see them doing the same this week.

As stout as their run D might be, Miami’s giving up 297.8 yards per game through the air (30^th) and it’s hard to see how they’re going to contain A.J. Green from picking up huge chunks of yardage this week.

Reggie Bush was playing like a superstar (some would say he still is a genuine superstar) before picking up a knee injury against the Jets two weeks ago and he wasn’t the same player last week. He’s been limited in practice this week, but the indications are that he’ll definitely play on Sunday.

The Dolphins aren’t as bad as advertised before the season kicked off and despite them covering the spread the past three weeks, I really like the Bengals -3.5 at home this week.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

BAL Ravens -4.5 ...BAL Chiefs +5

Kansas City have been pretty shocking in three games out of four this season, particularly ATS. Baltimore began the season 2-0 ATS, but, despite winning their last two contests (against the Patriots and Browns) they’ve failed to cover the spread both times so should we trust them on Sunday? Considering that the Chiefs will look to control the clock with their league leading rushing offense, maybe not.

Another reason, and perhaps more importantly, is that the Ravens have much bigger fish to try over the next two weeks when they host the Cowboys followed by a trip to Houston for what could be a possible AFC Championship dress rehearsal (although I have a hunch the Patriots will get there).

Leave this one well alone.

CHICAGO BEARS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

BAL Bears -5...BAL Jaguars +5.5

Why wouldn’t Chicago be a good thing this week? Perhaps because they’re on the road after a short week...having been on the road before that short week. They’ve experienced just one blip in four games thus far and that against the Packers in Green Bay and the most important facet of that defeat is that you just know they learnt from it, hence the hammering they dished out to the Cowboys on Monday night.

Jacksonville followed up a highly impressive win in Indy with a loss at home to the Bengals, hardly a surprise. I wouldn’t dream of placing any faith whatsoever in the Jaguars and while I’m not going to plug the Bears for a punt here (beware the MNF victory hangover...just ask the Seahawks), they should cover. Either way, they’ll win straight up.

DENVER BRONCOS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

BAL Broncos +7...BAL Patriots -6.5

Buy at the over/under of 52. Please.

BUFFALO BILLS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

BAL Bills +10...BAL 49ers -9

Thinking back to last week, it was so easy to predict San Fran would cover the spread against the Jets. The green half of NY/NJ was on a huge downer after Darrelle Revis was lost for the season, something nearly every media outlet reported. Why didn’t I listen to them?

The 49ers were also coming off a disappointing road loss in Minnesota and of course they were going to bounce back in style. It really was that obvious and I refused to see it. My only guess is that, being a Seahawk, it’s difficult to plot your lot on San Francisco. I missed out and don’t I know it.

Buffalo can’t plumb depths any lower than they did in the second half against the Patriots last week and this is a truly horrible matchup to follow that. The Bills don’t stand a chance and the Niners -9 looks to be a skinny line.

TENNESSEE TITANS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

BAL Titans +6...BAL Vikings -5.5

Minnesota are becoming very easy to bet on right now and this week looks to be no different. However, caveat emptor. Yes, the Vikings have covered the spread the last two weeks, but they were the underdog on both occasions (vs. 49ers, at Lions). They find themselves favoured this week and they’re 0-2 ATS this season (vs. Jaguars, at Colts) as the favourite.

However, I have to admit that they are attractive -5.5 against the Titans. They have weapons on offense, Christian Ponder has yet to throw an interception and they can be expected to score points on a leaky Tennessee D. In addition, Minnesota possesses a defense that is sound.

Jake Locker’s missing at quarterback for Tennessee and he may be out for a few weeks, but being able to turn the offense over to Matt Hasselbeck is no awful thing. Running back Chris Johnson (finally) broke out against Houston last week with 141 yards on 25 carries, but which Johnson will we see this week?

The Vikings boast the league’s seventh ranked run defense so don’t pin anything on the Titans hitting three figures on the ground.

I’m sorely tempted to make Minnesota a really good thing this week, but will urge caution. The Titans are horrible on defense...on second thoughts, I do make Minnesota a really good thing this week.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

BAL Chargers +4...BAL Saints -3.5

Although this isn’t the last game on this list, it’s the last game I’ve chosen to write about, partly because the game below was too easy to write about; the Texans really could hammer the final nail into the Jets’ coffin after only five weeks of the season.

Without focusing on how good a bet either the Chargers or Saints might be, the biggest certainty of this one is Drew Brees to surpass Johnny Unitas’s record of 47 consecutive games with at least one touchdown pass. Barring injury, it’s going to happen.

I’m working against a very unfortunate time constraint this weekend so need to curb it here: I take the Saints to cover on a tide of emotion.

HOUSTON TEXANS at NEW YORK JETS

BAL Texans -7.5...BAL Jets +9

How on earth are the Jets going to score on the Texans? The Jets are in a mess and the Texans are the hottest team in football. I appreciate Houston’s on the road here, but only asking them to cover by 7.5 points looks to be a stonking bet.

To recap, my ‘Aaron Curry’ is Cleveland +10 while my bet of the week is the one directly above, Houston -7.5. Picking only two teams is too conservative so I’ll also add in Cincinnati -3.5.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 5: Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

2012-11-05T20:51:00.001Z

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

That Carolina should have left the Georgia Dome last week with the W in their back pocket, just ten days after a public flogging at the hands of a depleted New York Giants team (on home turf, no less) tells you all you need to know about placing your hard earned on the Panthers. So, why do I have a strong fancy for them this week? Some sportsbooks are asking the home team to win by just a field goal in order to cover, available as they are -2.5.

Seattle has proven over its first two road games that they aren’t reliable ATS away from CenturyLink Field, going 0-2 in Arizona and St. Louis, notably division rivals both. However, they entered each of those contests as the favourite, whereas they’re generally a 3 point underdog this week. Still, it does look a little skinny, if I’m honest, particularly through these College Navy, Action Green and Wolf Grey coloured glasses.

Looking at the Panthers’ record ATS this season, this game reminds me of Tampa Bay’s hosting of Washington last week. The Buccaneers went into that one as a mini covering machine, having been 3-0 ATS, but a closer inspection showed that they’d achieved that lofty perch by covering as the underdog each time. As a home favourite against the Redskins they choked a little on their own gunpowder and never fully recovered, losing both SU and ATS.

Carolina’s record shows a similar pattern, although it’s hardly identical. As the favourite (vs. the Bucs and Giants), they’re 0-2. As soon as they’re unfancied (vs. the Saints and Falcons), they’re 2-0. That last stat is interesting and one to watch on the season; the Panthers are covering against division rivals.

So, here we have two teams in the Panthers and Seahawks who cover when the underdog. That does it for me. Article over. Just lump on Seattle. What could possibly go wrong..? Plenty...

Oldest news in the NFL right now is that the Seahawks rank dead last in passing offense, a situation exacerbated when Russell Wilson threw three picks against the Rams last week. Seattle fans are craving more offensive balance, if only to make them less predictable, but there’s little chance of that this week. Wilson will, arguably, be reined in more than he already has been this season, meaning much (and I get bored typing this) rests on the Charles Atlas-like shoulders of Marshawn Lynch. Fortunately, for the Seahawks, they face a Carolina run defense giving up 134.8 yards per game, 26^th in the NFL.

Yes, Carolina will be able to load the box, but that tactic hasn’t prevented Seattle piling up an average of 150.8 yards per game on the ground so far this season, numbers boosted last week when Robert Turbin came in to spell Lynch and ran for 45 yards on six carries. That part of the offense shouldn’t (ahem) show any sign of stopping this week. If it does, look for the Panthers to cover, probably with considerable ease, despite a Seahawks defense that will keep them in most games this year well into the fourth quarter.

For a team able to boast the not inconsiderable running talents of DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton, Carolina musters an average of 122 yards per game on the ground. That’s not earth shattering, but their offense possesses a balance Seattle can only dream of right now as Newton averages 240.3 passing yards per game. However, that balance will surely face its stiffest test this season against the much vaunted Seahawks defense.

Steve Smith, Greg Olsen and Brandon LaFell can expect to feel battered and bruised on Monday morning after facing the most cohesive secondary in football, Olsen in particular as the tight end is Newton’s favourite target this season, hauling in 20 passes on 31 targets, both team leading. However, should none of his receiving corps be open on any given play, it’s a) hardly a cause for celebration for fans with a Seattle heart and b) the play could only be just beginning as Newton is frightening when forced out of the pocket.

Newton’s totalled 167 rushing yards this season at 5.1 yards a pop (5.6 YPA in 2011 when amassing 706 yards) and this part of his game is one of the most intriguing aspects of this matchup. How the Seahawks cope with his running ability is one of the keys to this contest. The Panthers have six rushing touchdowns on the season and Newton can account for half of those.

For us Seahawks, facing the Panthers conjures up images of NFC Championship Games that took place in a distant (but hardly dim) football season of 2005. We had a feared running game them, behind the best left side of an offensive line ever (tell me who is then). Aside from the latter, nothing much has changed. The result, from January 22, 2006, I fear may be very different on Sunday.

NFL Odds, Week 4: Around the League

2012-11-05T20:42:00.003Z

And there was I doing so well. Well, I still am, if I may be so bold as to say so, but 6-1 looks so much better than 8-3, which is my record ATS after three weeks of what has been an already unforgettable season; particularly unforgettable in Seattle and Green Bay.
This week is a tough one to predict although there does look to be one outstanding bet of the week. However, I’m going to advise against it as it looks just too good to be true. So, yes, just one outstanding bet, but I’m going to put forth three picks at the end of this post.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at BUFFALO BILLS

BAL Patriots -3.5...BAL Bills +4

I wouldn’t want to be associated with the Buffalo Bills this week, either as a player or a fan. If you think the Packers are going to be fired up this week, then they almost have nothing on the Patriots.

They’ve lost their last two games by a total of three points, but while New England found some sympathisers in league circles after Baltimore was awarded what Bill Belichick clearly thought was a rogue winning field goal, I believe the call was good.

I’ve seen the winning kick ten times and the field goal is good on all ten occasions. However, the ire that Belichick feels, a conniption that will undoubtedly have been translated to every player on his roster, could very well come to the bettors’ aid this week.

This Patriots two game losing streak won’t last very long and I see it coming to an end this week. Yes, against a Bills team who’ve won two in a row after a stupendous opening day loss to the Jets. Belichick and Tom Brady just don’t enter territory such as losing three games in a row and, lest we forget that, despite losing in Baltimore last Sunday night, they covered the spread as they were available +2.5.

Fred Jackson returns for the Bills this week, amazing timing considering that C.J. Spiller is questionable, but New England’s stout against the run (81 YPG). The Patriots are angry and I like them to win by at least four.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at NEW YORK JETS

BAL 49ers -3.5...BAL Jets +4

Last week, before the 49ers went to Minnesota as 6.5 point favourites, I wrote this: At face value, San Fran look good being asked to only win by a touchdown, especially as they’ve already covered the spread against the Packers and Lions in the first two weeks. However, I’m wary. I just am.

Probably because those two wins were against playoff calibre teams and the Vikings are nothing of the sort, meaning they may take their foot off the gas a little this week.

Plus, they’re on the road at the Jets next week, kicking off at 10 a.m. PT, a game they’ll really need to focus all of their energies on.

There really are some ‘trap’ games when it comes to betting ATS in the NFL and they don’t come much more classic than the Niners’ trip to the Vikings last week.

The 10 a.m. PT kick off for San Fran should actually present a problem or two this week, but they were exceptional at covering the spread in the Eastern time zone last season. However, it pays to remember that they crept up on the rails of quite a few teams last year, something that has no chance of being repeated in 2012.

Imagine how the Patriots would feel should Tom Brady be lost for the season. Yes, it happened once. The Jets are (probably) experiencing similar emotions right now having lost their best player for the rest of the season.

The green half of New Jersey is a different proposition when Darrelle Revis is lined up at cornerback. Kyle Wilson, picked 29^th overall in the 2010 draft, takes over opposite Antonio Cromartie and you want to know the Jets’ contingency plan? Running back Joe McKnight. I kid you not.

Popular wisdom has it that the Jets are on such a downer now that they’re there for the taking. If anybody takes that as the cue to lay your hard earned on the 49ers, then may the luck of Alex Smith be with you. This is far from being a ‘trap’ game, but I’m still leaving it well alone.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at ATLANTA FALCONS

BAL Panthers +8...BAL Falcons -7

I always saw Andy Dalton suffering a sophomore slump, but never Cam Newton. It is too early to confirm such a notion, but not too early to speculate. Maybe we’ll find out, as his career careers along, that he’s not up to playing on primetime as his performance was demoralising in the thumping Carolina received at home to the Giants.

An NFC South matchup could be just what he needs right now, but if the Panthers are to win, they’ll need to buck an early betting trend.

With Week 3 in the books, form lines are emerging and the term ‘covering machine’ can begin to be wheeled out. Atlanta is one of four such teams, 3-0 ATS right now, along with Arizona, Houston and Tampa Bay.

The Falcons are averaging 31.3 points per game, tied for second in the league (behind Washington) and will look to air out often and early against the Panthers. They’re coming off a quite sensational win in San Diego, a game in which they were actually three point underdogs, a line they made a mockery of and there’s no chance they’ll be taking their foot off the pedal this week either.

The Panthers were considered to be a major threat to Atlanta in the NFC playoff race this season, but the Falcons have the chance to forge a three game lead over Carolina after only four weeks. It’s a chance they should be able to take and I am inclined to take them -7. However, they won’t go 16-0 ATS and the streak will come to an end at some stage.

Up against Newton, it’s difficult to predict what kind of game he’ll have so, while I lean towards Atlanta, it’s ultimately not enough for me to lay down any hard earned.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at DETROIT LIONS

BAL Vikings +4.5...BAL Lions -4

Faint praise effort of the week: Steve Mariucci this week said that Christian Ponder was “steady” against San Francisco last week. Wow. He was sensational against San Francisco last week, throwing for two touchdowns and running 23 yards for another. And all this against a defense being lauded as the league’s best.

If Minnesota’s the pleasant surprise of 2012, then Ponder’s play thus far is a close second. On the season, he’s completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 713 yards, has 4 TDs against 0 INTs and has a passer rating of 104.9. This is heady stuff and his leadership qualities are also being admired. Completely under the radar, the Vikings look to be a team on the rise and what’s not to like about them receiving 4.5 points in Detroit this week?

Matthew Stafford looks set to play this week despite nursing a hip injury and Jared Allen would have been dreaming of this matchup all week.

Minnesota covered the spread as the underdog last week after having twice failed to do so as a favourite while Detroit are 0-3 ATS, twice as a favourite. They’ll be glad to be back at home this week, but the betting form points all one way here. It simply has to be the Vikings and the points.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

BAL Chargers PK...BAL Chiefs +1.5

I don’t want anything to do with this one. San Diego was horrible last week and Kansas City was horrible through the first two weeks of the season. Good luck picking ATS here.

After their mauling at home to the Falcons last week, the Chargers won’t be relishing heading to Arrowhead. Conversely, the Chiefs will be buoyed by their comeback on the road in New Orleans last week and are licking their chops in anticipation of facing a wounded AFC West foe. A wounded foe is often a dangerous animal, but San Diego have proven themselves to have a soft underbelly in recent seasons and that, in my opinion, comes straight from the head coach. Norv Turner is docile and his team mirrors that sometimes, particularly when it most matters.

Jamaal Charles ran riot in the Superdome last week, to the tune of 233 yards, but that hasn’t proven difficult against the Saints this season; New Orleans is giving up a ridiculous 215 yards per game on the ground, worst in the NFL by a considerable margin.

The Chargers are a lot more stout defending the run, allowing just 67.3 rushing yards per game. However, and somewhat intriguingly, the Chiefs lead the league in rushing, averaging 191.7 yards per game so something’s got to give this week.

Enjoy this one for what it is, a throwback to the glory days of the AFL, but forced to pick here, I prefer KC and their number two ranked offense over San Diego’s 24^th ranked unit.

TENNESSEE TITANS at HOUSTON TEXANS

BAL Titans +12...BAL Texans -12

I wrote last week that I couldn’t give any credence to Houston’s form over the first two weeks of the season, sitting as they were at 2-0 having seen off the might of the Dolphins and Jaguars. Week 3 in Denver would prove how good they were and they passed with flying colours. This week they go back to (probably) seeing off another weak team...well, weak when compared to what’s on show in south east Texas.

If events in Seattle created the wildest ending to any game last week, the wildest game was Tennessee’s overtime win over Detroit. Jake Locker was sensational, throwing for 378 yards and two touchdowns and he knows that this week everything’s all on him again as the Titans’ running game is worse than woeful.

It seriously looks as though Chris Johnson’s head has gone. His pitiful stats this season are 33 rushes for 45 yards at 1.4 yards a pop. That’s an embarrassment and how the heck is he going to muster anything against Houston’s number five ranked run defense? In short, he won’t, or at least he shouldn’t. If he manages anything like 60 yards against them, that’s got to be considered a success so Locker will have to use everything in his own, er, locker to pull out the W here.

Let’s face it, it isn’t going to happen. The Texans had the Titans on their tail in the AFC South all of last season and they had to swat them away to win the division. Things are different in 2012. Houston’s a juggernaut of a team and the division is theirs for the taking, something that began in earnest last week.

Will they cover the spread? Perhaps, but buyer beware. They travel to face the Jets on Monday night next week so if they develop a decent lead against the Titans, expect them to relax a little in the fourth quarter, possibly allowing Tennessee a back door cover.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

BAL Bengals PK...BAL Jaguars +1.5

Jacksonville made a mockery of my bet of the week last week when they won 22-17 in Indianapolis, an outcome I never anticipated, particularly when we were sitting pretty with the Colts leading 14-3 at halftime. I’ll keep to myself my thoughts on Andrew Luck as the game entered the final five minutes, suffice to say that I won’t be trusting him with any more of my money any time soon...perhaps even for the remainder of the season.

I’d consider the Jaguars win last week, on the road at a division rival, an emotional win, which makes Cincinnati relatively good value here. In addition, it’s difficult to trust Jacksonville to pull out two good performances back to back. Heck, they couldn’t even pull out two decent halves of football back to back last week. Then again, nor did Seattle.

Both teams are 2-1 ATS, but the Bengals barely covered in Week 2, at home to Cleveland. However, I was mightily impressed with their win in Washington last week and like them from scratch (PK) here. It does literally all come down to which team I trust more and, despite the Jags making me look a fool last week, I’m not prepared to suddenly jump on their merry little bandwagon.

With little to no delving into the spread, my hunch says the Bengals to win straight up (SU), which translates to covering at the same time.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS

BAL Raiders +7...BAL Broncos -6.5

If Jacksonville surprised me last week, then so did Oakland. They easily covered the spread (+4.5) at home to Pittsburgh, but I do believe the sportsbooks to have overreacted a little to that win as I’m more inclined to offer the Raiders +9.

The fact that this is a divisional matchup would likely have played a part because if this were played on a neutral field, you’d reduce the spread by three points to account for no home field advantage. Suddenly, the Broncos -3.5 looks very attractive so why wouldn’t -6.5 be equally so? Especially against a Raiders team likely missing Darrius Heyward-Bey at wide receiver with a neck injury/concussion like symptoms. Admittedly, it’s not as though Heyward-Bey’s pulling up trees this season, but quarterback Carson Palmer’s targeted him 18 times this season, joint second on the team.

Denver were being dominated by Houston last week until they scored a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but that could happen to almost any team so there’s no disgrace in going down 31-25 at home to the Texans. Just two weeks ago, Oakland was destroyed in the second half by Miami and that lingers fresh in the memory, particularly as it was a road game, as is the case here.

I cannot advise on backing Oakland here so I side with Denver to cover...but not by much.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

BAL Dolphins +6.5...BAL Cardinals -5.5

What’s going on here? This doesn’t feel right. Why aren’t the Dolphins +10?

The Cardinals are a covering machine (3-0 ATS) with a defense conceding 13.3 points per game, second in the league behind the Seahawks. The Dolphins have already been blown away as a road underdog this season so why are the Cardinals being asked to win by just six points here?

In addition, Reggie Bush is banged up (knee) although his prospects of playing this week appear to be good. In further addition (if such a phrase passes through the Oxford English Dictionary), Arizona tore the Eagles apart last week and covered the spread ridiculously easily.

Should Bush suit up, and if he’s ready for the pounding, he may actually have some success running the ball, particularly as Darnell Docket looks set to miss out with a hamstring injury.

As expected, Ryan Tannehill has struggled somewhat as a rookie and if Bush doesn’t play, I make the Cardinals an absolute certainty to cover the spread. They may have an eye on next Thursday night when they travel to the division rival Rams, but that still doesn’t justify (to me anyway) what looks to be a skinny line.

Still, be careful on this one as it just doesn’t feel right.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

BAL Redskins +3...BAL Buccaneers -1.5

This is another line that looks to be a tad skewed. All that Tampa does is cover the spread; Washington is 1-2 ATS and 0-2 ATS since their stunner in the Superdome on opening weekend. However, despite the line not looking entirely trustworthy, a little digging does give us a clue as to perhaps why.

Yes, the Buccaneers are a covering machine, but they’ve achieved such lofty status as the underdog on each occasion, including twice on the road (at the Giants and Cowboys).

They’re being asked to cover this week as the favourite, something they’re not accustomed to. You may think that has little significance, but betting trends aren’t something that are guessed at and this needs serious thought.

There’s no stingier defense against the run than the Buccaneers (47.3 YPG), but that’ll be severely tested this week when the Redskins bring their second ranked rushing attack (180 YPG) to town. It’s a classic case of the irresistible force against the immovable object and I like the latter more, which means much rests on Robert Griffin III, but it’s a challenge he’s more than up for, particularly this week.

As astoundingly good against the run as the Buccaneers are, they rank dead last defending the pass, giving up 353 yards per game through the air. Griffin’s made a solid start to his NFL career (67.4 completion percentage, 4 TDs, 1 INT) and will fancy his chances of adding to his passing touchdowns this week.

I can make a case for backing both teams this week, but like Washington and the points more than I do asking the Bucs to win by two.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

BAL Saints +9...BAL Packers -7.5

If I wouldn’t wish to be associated with the Buffalo Bills this week, up against a ticked off Belichick/Brady double headed monster, then the same can be said of the New Orleans Saints. They’re not simply up against two first ballot Hall of Famers, they’re up against an apoplectic city burning with rage at a perceived injustice and looking to knock seven bells of muck out of the next team in their path. And the game just happens to be at Lambeau Field. Blimey.

The Packers will be able to run all day on the Saints and if ever I could feel sorry for a bunch of guys being paid to play sport, this is one of those occasions. I expect Green Bay to steamroller New Orleans, despite their offensive woes so far this season and you may even hear the noise in a city near to you.

NEW YORK GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

BAL Giants +2.5...BAL Eagles -1

Philadelphia may have a 2-1 record, but they’re 0-3 ATS and they’re favoured for the fourth game in a row this week. It seems incredulous and they are vastly overrated by the sportsbooks so I wouldn’t stand in anybody’s way wishing to back the Giants with what looks to be a generous 2.5 start. Well, it may be generous if Hakeem Nicks were playing. He’s officially listed as doubtful (swelling in his knee), but it’s unlikely he’ll play.

He also missed Week 3’s thrashing of Carolina, but he wouldn’t wanted to have missed this. It’s one thing for the Big Blue to go against a Panthers pass defense allowing 243 yards through the air, quite another when the Eagles allow 172 passing yards per game, third in the league. He’ll be missed this week and it’s a huge boost for Philly.

Michael Vick’s problems are well documented and he’s more than played his part in the Eagles being 0-3 ATS. I have to say that it is a little strange that a team that ranks fifth overall in offense and fifth overall in defense can’t buy a win ATS; it makes them incredibly hard to trust, despite the undoubted talent on the roster.

I watched them capitulate in Arizona last Sunday and it was a staggering exercise in ineptitude and there’s no way I can ask them to give away points this week. As highly ranked as they might be statistically, the Eagles inevitably find ways to beat themselves, at least in the eyes of the bettor.

These two teams don’t like each other one bit and it’s going to be a feisty affair and one I can’t wait for. As for who I like, the Giants and the points, with or without Hicks.

CHICAGO BEARS at DALLAS COWBOYS

BAL Bears +3.5...BAL Cowboys -3

Since making a statement when marching into New Jersey and winning on opening night, Dallas has gone 0-2 ATS and both times as favourite. They’re favoured again this week so might they underwhelm once again? Their running game might as, having come up against the top two run defenses in the league in Seattle and Tampa Bay the past two weeks, they face a Chicago run defense ranked sixth in the league this week. Is there no end to the brick walls? Not yet and they travel to Baltimore after their bye week.

The Bears are my Super Bowl XLVII tip so I was naturally concerned when Matt Forte went down recently, but he’s recovered sufficiently to play on Monday night. And his presence is much needed.

Michael Bush is a capable backup, but that’s the operative word. His 3.4 yards per carry on 44 carries this season are not a patch on Forte’s 4.8 yard average and he’ll test Dallas’s 19^th ranked run defense. As for the fanfare surrounding the Bears passing game this season with the additions of receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, they rank just 28^th in that category and will struggle against a Cowboys defense allowing just 137 yards per game through the air.

Chicago have impressed at home so far, albeit against the Colts and Rams, but were shockingly bad in Green Bay in Week 2. A trip to Dallas is a tough proposition and as much as I want the Bears to triumph, I really do like the Cowboys -3.

This is not an easy week to pick teams with certainty, but here goes: my ‘Aaron Curry’ is the Patriots -3.5 and my bet of the week is the Cowboys -3. The Vikings, despite being 1-2 ATS, are a team I can’t escape from and I also take them +4.5.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 4: Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams

2012-11-05T20:24:00.002Z

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ST. LOUIS RAMS

Being awake at 4:50 a.m. during the working week is strangely liberating. Being awake at 4:50 a.m. during the working week with adrenalin coursing through your veins is worrisome. You almost have to resign yourself to the day beginning right there, right then. It’s what I had to accept this past Tuesday morning after the Seahawks were awarded the game against the Packers.

Being an NFL fan in London does sometimes mean having to subject the body to alarm calls more invasive than the norm, but never has it been more rewarding than for MNF last week. I’m not going to expound on what transpired on the final play against the Pack as the topic’s been dissected ad nauseam. All I will say is that we were owed that call; Phil Luckett/Earnie Frantz and Bill Leavy saw to that in 1998 and 2006 respectively.

After a disappointing loss in Arizona in Week 1, a loss that actually looks less disappointing with each passing week, Seattle’s come out and covered the spread the last two weeks, both times at home. Those two covers were as a home underdog, the Cardinals loss was a failure to cover as a road favourite, territory the Seahawks find themselves in again this week, favoured as they are by a field goal. In fact, they can be backed -2.5 while the Rams are available +3.

It may actually be wise to take any points available on the home team as this promises to be a low scoring affair and the over/under of 39 does look to be very good for a sell.

Sam Bradford had by far his worst performance of the season in Chicago last week and, naturally, won’t be looking forward to seeing the ridiculously good Seattle defensive unit facing him as he lines up under center. He can expect untold amounts of pressure as the Seahawks will surely be all over left tackle Wayne Hunter. Hunter’s replaced the injured Rodger Saffold in the lineup and on paper it looks to be a horrible matchup for the Rams.

Steven Jackson is questionable (groin), but is expected to play. However, should he not suit up, that line of -2.5 looks extremely skinny. Yes, backup Daryl Richardson is averaging 5.7 yards per carry thus far, but averaged only 4 YPC against a stout Chicago run defense last week. The Seahawks are giving up even less yards per game on the ground than the Bears so it does look to be all on Bradford and his favourite target, Danny Amendola, who’s good for 25 catches for 296 yards so far; only one touchdown though.

Naturally, unless there’s been a drastic change in philosophy since Green Bay, Seattle will look to pound the ball on the Rams and it’s encouraging for the Seahawks that St. Louis ranks 22^nd against the run, giving up 120.7 yards per game.

Russell Wilson takes charge of a passing offense that ranks dead last in the league, yet as I’ve written previously, this isn’t making the natives restless. Wilson is a truly remarkable individual (as well as an athlete) who exudes a calmness almost not seen in a rookie quarterback and his TD-INT ratio of 4-1, while not eye catching, personifies his play. He isn’t trying too hard, he listens intently to his coaches and, most importantly, he isn’t prone to making glaring rookie mistakes. I want to add the word ‘yet’ to that, but you just feel as though it doesn’t need it.

Sure, he’s being labelled in some quarters as a game manager, but what’s wrong with that? He’s a rookie surrounded by a punishing running game, superb veteran leadership and perhaps the greatest defense in Seahawks history. They may not be a Super Bowl team yet (there you go, time for the word), but that D will keep them in most contests throughout the season and from the bettor’s perspective in me, it makes them good value almost every week, particularly as an underdog.

There’s absolutely no reason not to think Seattle represents tremendous value this week although there are a couple of caveats. This is a road game for the Seahawks on a short week, not to mention that kickoff is 10 a.m. PT. When analysing the spread, that last point is easy to overlook, but one I never do now, having had my fingers burnt in the past. That said, San Francisco made a mockery of that last season when playing in the Eastern time zone; they were a covering machine on the other side of the country.

Another factor to consider is that Seattle’s coming off an emotional win, almost one of the most emotional wins in franchise history considering it occurred on a Monday night. However, despite the small concerns I have, it’s difficult to sway me on this one. The Seahawks should win by three. They should win by more. Put your money on the defense to aid us in collecting on Monday morning.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 3: Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

2012-09-24T21:32:00.000+01:00

GREEN BAY PACKERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Green Bay Packers do a lot of things well, on and off the field, too many to list here. One thing they don’t do well is defend the run. Their numbers from last season show that they gave up 111.8 rushing yards per game, 14^th in the league, a figure that’s acceptable when Aaron Rodgers is your quarterback.

However, that YPG average hides a more telling statistic. They allowed 4.7 yards per rushing attempt, 26^th in the NFL, and through two games this season, they’re worse.

The Packers are yielding a mighty 140 rushing yards per game (27^th) at 5.1 yards per attempt (30^th), placing them above only the Bengals and Rams in the latter category.

As we’re all well aware, Seattle wants to run the football, hard. They want to punish the other team and even Golden Tate personified that attitude last Sunday when he laid THAT block on Sean Lee, helping Russell Wilson to a first down. He should’ve been flagged for the hit under the current rules, which is why these replacement officials need to be replaced themselves, but that’s another argument for another site.

We got away with one there, but it’s a hit that’s reverberated around the league all week and will be fresh in the memory of every home fan attending the game on Monday night and when Wilson is forced to leave the pocket, not only will we be watching him, some of us will also have an eye out for the next crushing (hopefully legal) block. The broader point I’m making is that the Seahawks crowd would be in this one anyway. When they’re still pumped at the Tate hit and are ‘welcoming’ Rodgers and a franchise such as this, there will be times in the game when the Packers won’t believe they’re in a football stadium. Just look around you, fellas, you won’t experience this very often.

While Seattle can boast rushing for an average of 148.5 yards over the first two games (7^th), the yards per carry of 4.0 doesn’t pierce the top 10 (12^th), but that won’t necessarily be at the forefront of the minds of the Packers D. No, they’ll know that in the second half alone against Dallas last week, Marshawn Lynch ran for 104 yards as the Seahawks went on drives of 90 and 88 yards as they pounded the Cowboys into the CenturyLink turf; Tate was merely getting some of that action for himself, too.

If the Seahawks are to cover the spread, both the running game and the crowd will need to be major contributing factors. Seattle can be backed +3.5 while those wishing to back the Pack can have them -3. It’s right that there’s not really any disparity in the lines available as a strong case can be made for the Seahawks to win this one straight up.

Greg Jennings is officially listed as questionable for Green Bay, but I think it’s fair to rate him as probable as he “looked good today (Saturday)” according to coach Mike McCarthy. Although he missed the mauling dished out to the Bears last week, Jennings wasn’t missed at all as the Packers’ defense did most of the hard work. This was a unit riled and motivated to the hilt with the “good luck” wishes of Jay Cutler ringing in their ears and they shoved those words straight back down his throat...and then some.

Cutler’s a loose cannon and the Seahawks haven’t reverted to such bone-headed displays of foolery this week, a good thing really.

Clay Matthews has six sacks over two games and he can be expected to wreak similar havoc on Monday, but Seattle’s offensive line devalued DeMarcus Ware’s output to almost non-existent last Sunday so it’s not as though they won’t know what to expect this week.

As stout as Seattle is defensively while also being able to rely on a brutal pairing at running back, particularly as the game wears on, they rank dead last in passing offense...yes lower even than Jacksonville. However, this actually isn’t a problem and nobody in the Pacific Northwest is anywhere close to hitting the panic button.

Using Jacksonville as an example, Blaine Gabbert’s problems at quarterback are well documented and his every mistake is dissected at length. Well, some used to do that. Many have now given up on him and think the Jaguars should be thinking of replacing him in 2013.

Wilson is a different proposition in Seattle. He shows remarkable poise for a rookie, is a leader of men and possesses an attention to detail that rivals Peyton Manning. In fact, for everything you need to know on this remarkable young man, all you need do is read Elizabeth Merrill’s article on Wilson on espn.com. It makes for astonishing reading and I’ve rarely read anything as insightful on a football player.

Having read it, you realise we’re in very safe hands in Seattle and drafting him was a masterstroke.

I seriously underestimated the Seahawks last week and won’t be doing the same this week. In addition to the Seahawks being able to run the ball on the Packers and the effect of the ‘12^th Man’ on a Monday night, this is also Green Bay’s first road game of the season and anything San Francisco were able to do on opening weekend, Seattle can do this week.

NFL Odds, Week 3: Around the League

2012-09-22T13:53:00.001+01:00

This darned spread betting is difficult to judge at the best of times. The best of times are anywhere after Week 4, when statistical lines are becoming consistent and, more importantly, the pattern begins to emerge of which teams are covering the spread or, as is the vernacular, winning ATS (against the spread).
I will stop explaining the above acronym soon as I’m wary of patronising anybody, but as I’m unaware of who may be reading these posts for the first time after only two weeks of the season, some readers may appreciate the explanation.

The worst of times for spread betting is, naturally, if the first paragraph is to be believed, anywhere before Week 4, but I’m having a good run, having gone 6-1 over the first two weeks and 4-0 last week. Yes, I do comment on every game, but have picked out just seven contests I thought justified laying down your hard earned for. The one game that’s been my undoing? The Seahawks (-2.5) in Arizona. In hindsight, that tip was extremely misguided, but hindsight is the perfect science and I was never any good at that in school so why would I suddenly wish to hold its hand and take it out to dinner now?

The Cincinnati Bengals did their utmost to fool me last week, covering by half a point, the merest margin there is, beating Cleveland by seven, but being available -6.5 right up until kickoff.

Right, let’s delve into Week 3 and attempt to pick out a couple more gems. This doesn’t include the Thursday night affair in Carolina, but that wasn’t a game I was looking to bet on anyway. However, as a point of interest, I would’ve tipped up the Panthers to cover the spread (-2). The Giants didn’t miss a beat despite missing a couple of key starters, but, after failing to cover the spread in the first two weeks, I’m in no mood to trust them just yet.

For this post and future reference, I’ll preface each game with the best available line (BAL) for each team.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at DALLAS COWBOYS

BAL Buccaneers +9...BAL Cowboys -7

The line on Tampa Bay, at first blush, looks like incredible value, but why would some bookmakers tempt us into almost buying money?

Dallas will be hurting after last week in Seattle, both figuratively and literally and the Bucs will be smarting after losing a big lead to the Giants. However, all that matters here is that Tampa covered the spread in that game and are 2-0 ATS, each time as underdogs, exactly the same as this week. This is almost too good to be true, which makes me wary as, personally, I wouldn’t really want to lay the Bucs at anything more than +6.5.

The intangible here is that this is the Cowboys’ home opener after two tough road games so they will invariably be much better than last week (for that, read Buffalo last week vs. KC after their mauling at the Jets in Week 1) while the Bucs are on the road for the second consecutive week against what is perceived to be a playoff calibre team; consecutive road games have a habit of making a mockery of any given line.

I really want to advise on backing Tampa and may yet have a small wager myself, but I’ve been stung on these bets before so, for interest purposes only, let’s just keep a close eye on this one. Should the Bucs win SU (straight up) then they really are for real.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

BAL Jaguars +3...BAL Colts -2.5

Which quarterback do you trust more here? Blaine Gabbert +3 or Andrew Luck -2.5...at home? My very first thought on this matchup was Jacksonville +6.5, but, unlike the line afforded the Buccaneers in Dallas, I’m not wary here, purely because Indianapolis are playing in their own surroundings...for the second consecutive week. In addition, to trust the Jaguars +3 means placing your faith in a defense that gave up a whopping 216 yards on the ground last week, albeit to an elite Houston Texans backfield.

Jacksonville ranks dead last in the league in total offense and, while Indy’s defense can’t be compared to Houston, New England and San Diego (the top three defenses in the league right now...hang on, the Patriots’ second ranked D lost to Kevin Kolb last week...didn’t it...?), it’s not their defense I’m necessarily relying on.

Anybody brave enough to bet on Jacksonville this week will be laying money on a team that was 0 of 9 on third down last week and had only one drive of longer than four plays, a literally astonishing statistic (thank you to Darin Gantt of Pro Football Talk for those).

The Colts are currently giving up 273 yards per game through the air, a figure not likely to be threatened by Gabbert, who averages 147 passing yards per game. I plain don’t get how this game has been pegged to be so close. Indianapolis represents tremendous value and is quite possibly the bet of the week.

BUFFALO BILLS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

BAL Buffalo -3...BAL Cleveland +3

Old news is that Cleveland are 0-2. However, they’re 1-0-1 ATS and were a half point from being 2-0 on that score. The Browns could prove to the bettor’s friend this season and I was all over them +9 in Week 1 at home to the Eagles.

However, I did go against them last week with Cincy, a bet that scraped over the line, which makes me wary of betting against them this week. Yes, even when missing stud cornerback Joe Haden and up against a Buffalo team that scored 35 points last week. A better view of the Bills this week is to look at their last game on the road, an abomination of a performance at the Jets on opening weekend.

I suppose, unsurprisingly, the key to the whole contest is the performance of C.J. Spiller. He’s having the breakout year of all breakout years, averaging 10.1 yards per carry over the first two weeks of the season, a number so staggering that I struggle not to laugh at it. Success on that scale is impossible to sustain and it has to come to a shuddering halt at some time. Why wouldn’t it be this week?

It might not be, but there’s no way I’m betting against Cleveland right now and especially when the memory of Buffalo being mauled 41-7 during the third quarter of their last road game is still too vivid. The Jets allowed the Bills to flatter themselves late on in that one by giving up in the fourth quarter.

NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

BAL NY Jets -1...BAL Dolphins +3.5

No man is an Island. Unless your name is Darrelle Revis.

Revis missed last week’s let down in Pittsburgh with a concussion, but has stated that he definitely starts this week.

The importance of Revis to the Jets’ secondary can never be underestimated and whereas he can often be counted on to shut down one half of the field, that looks to be a nailed on certainty on Sunday when you consider he’ll be up against Davone Bess, who lines up at flanker for Miami.

Ryan Tannehill fared fairly well last week against the Raiders, but the Silver and Black were missing Ron Bartell, their top cover corner, a complete 180 to what Tannehill will see this week.

If the current Dolphins could ever generate some crowd noise (heck, even a crowd would be nice), you’d think entertaining the hated Jets would entice a few more through the turnstiles.

This once proud franchise suffer from arguably the worst home field advantage in the NFL and, as simple as this analysis might be, fan apathy (even against a division rival) plus the return of Revis plus a pumped up Rex Ryan (despite the weight loss) makes the Jets giving up just one point look like a small steal.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

BAL Chiefs +9...BAL Saints -7.5

N’Awlins are staring down the barrel of a horrible season already. This game should see them peg back a W (SU), but their schedule immediately thereafter ain’t pretty: Green Bay, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Denver, Philadelphia and Atlanta.

OUCH, ouch, ouch, OUCH, ouch and OUCH.

And if that wasn’t enough, they’re giving up 186 yards per game on the ground so far (worst in the league), a statistic that could look very familiar again this week because the Chiefs roll into town averaging 151 rushing yards per game.

Something will have to give here and it does figure to be both defenses as each one has yielded 75 points over two games, another league worst.

I’m advising to leave this one alone, although if pushed, I take KC and the points. However, an interesting bet here is the over/under, which is worth a small buy at 53.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

BAL Bengals +4...BAL Redskins -3

Washington probably pulled the biggest shock in Week 1 when they dismantled the Saints in the Superdome only to show the rest of the NFL in Week 2 how difficult it is to win on the road in consecutive weeks, even when up against a team perceived to be lesser than the now dominant you.

As if the fall back to Earth wasn’t enough, the dreams they held, built around a heavenly new quarterback who floated like an angel amongst the Saints, were dealt a considerable blow this week when it was announced that stud OLB Brian Orakpo (pectoral tear) and DE Adam Carriker (torn quad tendon) were both lost for the season.

The Bengals have suffered their own defensive woes recently, losing weakside linebacker Thomas Howard, last year’s leading tackler, and the effect of this will be felt the longer the season wears on.

Anybody with an inkling for the ‘Skins here is able to factor into the equation that this is RG3’s home debut and emotions will be running high all around FedEx Field.

I have no interest in betting on this one. The Bengals do look to be good value, particularly against a depleted Washington D, but this is still a tough road game for a team who embarrassed themselves in Baltimore two weeks ago and then made Brandon Weeden look half decent last week. Then again, maybe he is.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at ARIZONA CARDINALS

BAL Eagles -3...BAL Cardinals +4.5

Here’s why Arizona is good to bet on this week:

Philly’s coming off an emotional win over the Ravens.

They’re travelling to face a Cardinals team who still aren’t being taken seriously despite shocking the Patriots in their own back yard.

Dallas Reynolds (exactly) is filling in for the injured Jason Kelce at center for the Eagles.

Arizona are 2-0 ATS; Philadelphia are 0-2 ATS. Spread betting form sides with the Cards.

Would you trust Michael Vick with your hard earned?

Yes, after last week, and ridiculous as it sounds, I have more faith in Kevin Kolb than I do Vick to cover the spread.

I think that’s everything.

ST. LOUIS RAMS at CHICAGO BEARS

BAL Rams +9...BAL Bears -7

My Super Bowl XLVII tip ain’t looking so hot right now. Chicago was bullied and battered in Week 2 by a Green Bay team motivated to the hilt by the (stoopid) words of Jay (stoopid) Cutler. I’ve rarely seen a player have his words shoved straight back down his throat in quite the manner of last Thursday.

I’m glad it happened this early and not in January, although Brian Urlacher himself admitted that perhaps the Bears aren’t as good as they thought they were.

Like New Orleans, Chicago should pocket the W here, but that’s not the salient point. Can they win by eight? I’m not so sure and it’s why I like St. Louis with nine points.

Sam Bradford has looked extremely assured so far, his 2011 nightmare moving farther away in his rear view mirror and his numbers give me confidence in supporting his team here. He’s completed 71.7% of his passes, has a TD-INT ratio of 4-1 and is facing a Bears pass defense that ranks 20^th in the league.

Matt Forte, perhaps my favourite player not wearing a Seahawks jersey, is missing and, while Michael Bush is a capable running back, he ain’t no Matt Forte.

I take the Rams and the points.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

BAL 49ers -6.5...BAL Vikings +7

Adrian Peterson’s been shooting from the hip this week about how San Francisco this season won’t have seen anything like the running game Minnesota will be bringing to the table this week.

Maybe he’s talking about the juggernaut of a running game that’s averaging a whopping 109 yards per game going against a Niners D giving up just 63.5 yards on the ground. Yeah, that’ll be the one. Fortunately for Peterson, he has the ability to back those words up, but you get the feeling that he’s had a little too much time to think while rehabbing his knee.

At face value, San Fran look good being asked to only win by a touchdown, especially as they’ve already covered the spread against the Packers and Lions in the first two weeks. However, I’m wary. I just am.

Probably because those two wins were against playoff calibre teams and the Vikings are nothing of the sort, meaning they may take their foot off the gas a little this week.

Plus, they’re on the road at the Jets next week, kicking off at 10 a.m. PT, a game they’ll really need to focus all of their energies on.

DETROIT LIONS at TENNESSEE TITANS

BAL Lions -3.5...BAL Titans +3.5

This line looks to be a little off. Maybe I’m wrong. Admittedly, both teams are 0-2 ATS, but Tennessee have been blown away twice in a row. Perhaps that’s why the line on Detroit looks skinny. I mean, can the Titans look any worse? Can Chris Johnson look any worse? Tennessee averages 29 rushing yards per game. There must be an improvement here soon. But how soon is soon? 0-16 soon? Yes, a little dramatic.

It’s actually not easy for Detroit to travel south after a tough loss in San Fran, but they can surely cover here by four...can’t they? I know, I shouldn’t be posing all these questions.

Betting on this one frightens me. Really frightens me. I can’t have my 6-1 record being tarnished by advising anything here.

Matt Stafford’s my fantasy QB and is the only reason I’m watching this one.

Who’ll cover the spread? You tell me.

ATLANTA FALCONS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

BAL Falcons +3...BAL Chargers -2.5

It’s way too early to call either team a covering machine, but they are both 2-0 ATS so something’s gotta give on Sunday, which straight away leads me to the Falcons and the points on offer.

Both offenses average less than 100 rushing yards per game, but we all know that that isn’t Atlanta’s MO.

No, Mr. Regular Season (sorry, Matt Ryan) has superfluous weapons at his disposal and will look to the air first. Ditto for Philip Rivers. Well, at least until he has Ryan Mathews available again at running back, which will surely be the case this week with Mathews fully participating in practice up until Friday.

The aforementioned Air Ryan will be on full display on Sunday as there’s little chance of the Falcons having any luck on the ground against a Chargers run defense yielding a measly 41 yards per game.

This has the makings of a shootout and, as much as I lean towards Atlanta, the best thing to do here would be to buy on the over/under at 47.5.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at OAKLAND RAIDERS

BAL Steelers -3.5...BAL Raiders +4.5

Only the Raiders’ mother could love their son enough to cover the spread in this contest.

What this matchup does is unlock memories of 1970’s playoff contests, Immaculate Receptions, Snake Stablers and when smashmouth football meant exactly that. To times when it was the law that ALL linemen had to have beards. If you didn’t you wouldn’t make the final roster. I’m not making this stuff up. Go ask your Dad.

How much do we read into Oakland’s second half abomination in Miami last week? Carson Palmer was 24 of 48 for 373 yards and the Raiders ended up scoring 13 points. It’s because they ran for only 10 more yards than those points accrued while Reggie Bush tore through their defense for 172 yards on 26 carries.

The Dolphins controlled the ball and the clock beautifully in that second half and simply wore down the Silver and Black in the heat. Ah, perhaps there’s the clue...(Silver and) Black in the heat.

Pittsburgh pulled the Jets back to earth, thumping them 27-10 and Ben Roethlisberger had a whale of a time, although it was made a little easier for him before even a ball was snapped seeing as he would be throwing against a secondary minus Darrelle Revis.

The Raiders will have to go some to reach three figures on the ground this week...they average 34 yards rushing per game and all this with Darren McFadden in the backfield. The Steelers are giving up 92 rushing yards per game so Palmer could very well be throwing the ball 48 times once again.

Being a Seahawk, it’s difficult to like the Raiders at the best of times and, while I wouldn’t advise lumping on Pittsburgh here, I prefer asking the Steelers to win by four than asking the Raiders to keep it close in order to cover.

HOUSTON TEXANS at DENVER BRONCOS

BAL Texans -1...BAL Broncos +4.5

Finally, a true test for Houston, having blown past the Dolphins and Jaguars in the first two weeks. Yes, the schedule isn’t their fault and they wouldn’t have paid any money into NFL coffers to be afforded a comfortable start to the season, but the Texans being 2-0 at this stage was the biggest certainty of the season...to this point.

In fact, more pertinently to us handicappers, is the fact that I am almost disregarding their stats over the first two weeks as any kind of form guide. We knew they were good, we knew they were a playoff calibre team, so what’s new? Nothing.

This matchup fascinates me as do the lines on offer. Look at the disparity. Steer well clear of this. If you don’t and you end up winning money on either team, then you’re a better man than me. Then again, that probably isn’t that difficult.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

BAL Patriots +2.5...BAL Ravens -1.5

I was all over Baltimore plus 2.5 in Philadelphia last week and it paid off handsomely, although not as handsomely as I would’ve liked when they led by ten at halftime. Ray Rice wasn’t used properly enough protecting that lead and I can’t see that happening again in a hurry.

There’s no way I’m overreacting to New England’s shocker at home to Arizona last week. Losing Aaron Hernandez didn’t help matters, but never underestimate Bill Belichick and Tom Brady immediately after a loss that doesn’t make sense.

I like the Patriots and the points a lot here. Not enough to go all out or to include them as a sure fire thing, but if I’ve had a bad Sunday afternoon, then this bet will be my saver.

I’m becoming increasingly protective of my 6-1 record ATS so far, which translates to me becoming increasingly nervous about predicting this week, which I know doesn’t make sense, but the day to change all that passed too long ago to remember when it actually was.

My ‘Aaron Curry’ this week is the Rams +9 and my bet of the week is the Colts -2.5. In addition, I advise the Jets -1 and the Cardinals +4.5.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 2: Around the League

2012-09-19T21:17:00.002+01:00

I can only hope you heeded my advice last week. Against my better judgement, I decided to proffer an opinion on every game in Week 1 of the NFL, giving those of you who thrive on the challenge of outwitting the sportsbooks a look at where you could have placed your hard earned.

Having already warned caveat emptor, I did treat it as an exercise in enjoyment, taking a relatively light hearted look at the schedule, just to gauge how good or bad my predictions would look after the first sixteen games of the season.

I wrote that should I escape with anything above an 8-8 record, then I’d be happy. For happy, read as happy as Joe Flacco feels right now; I bombed with a 5-10 record. Yes, 5 + 10 is, hang on a minute...er, 15...thought so, but this calculator doesn’t half come in handy sometimes. I didn’t actually advise on anybody in the 49ers/Packers matchup, instead choosing to enjoy it for what it was, happy in the knowledge that we’d all be Packers fans for three hours. Boy, even that scenario blew up in our faces.

However, I’m (semi) glad to report that I picked out three contests as worthy of a small wager, which produced some success. As fate would have it, the one team to let me down of the triumvirate was the Seahawks. Earlier in the afternoon, the Houston Texans (my bet of the week) had easily covered the spread (-11) at home to Miami while New England (-6) made that line look ridiculous as they cruelly picked apart the Tennessee Titans on the road. Curiously, as kickoff approached in Nashville, the Patriots were available -4.5, a line that staggered me.

I was looking very shrewd and with only Seattle left, all I needed was for them to win by a field goal in Arizona. How difficult could that be? It wouldn’t be. How good was the Arizona defense on the day? Underrated. How come the game took seven hours to play? Is that all it took? It felt like longer.

At 13-3 down, my bet was dead in the water until Seattle’s D finally made the necessary adjustments to negate what John Skelton was doing at QB. So, naturally, when he went down and they wheeled out Kevin Kolb to replace him, I was already counting out my lovely English pounds. Turns out I was merely counting my chickens.

The shambles that Kolb had been advertised as (a marketing campaign that was mightily convincing) suddenly tore my heart from my chest and the pennies from my palm as he engineered an unlikely redemption for himself. He’s looked so terrible on so many occasions since joining the Cardinals that what he did last Sunday still doesn’t properly compute.

I’ll be adopting the same approach to predicting this week as I did last week, culminating in the bets that I believe represent the most value (including my ‘Aaron Curry’, which is the ‘can’t miss’ bet, second only to my bet of the week). With that in mind, I’m not too despondent at a 2-1 record in what was a treacherous week for those of us who look to beat the sportsbooks.

I’ve already posted my take on the Cowboys visit to CenturyLink Field this Sunday so what follows is a look at everything else the league has to offer.

CHICAGO BEARS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

Yes, yes, the Bears are my Super Bowl XLVII pick (you are going to tire of hearing that, but I can’t apologise just yet), but Jay Cutler’s made the first bone headed play even before kickoff, having already practically guaranteed victory at Lambeau tonight with his “good luck” to the Pack’s defensive backs.

Jay, what are you thinking? All I can think is that the rarified air he once inhaled in Denver is wreaking havoc somewhere in his noggin. To throw down the gauntlet on the eve of a trip to Green Bay, to face a Packers team who already can barely afford to lose this one (stupid, but true) is brave, but the last person to put up such a guarantee in this particular part of Wisconsin did so on the actual field at the coin toss before overtime, declaring that his team wanted the ball and were going to score. And look what happened that day.

Chicago are available +5.5 while the Pack can be backed -4.5. Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder this week, as will the entire Green Bay defense after Cutler’s cheek, but Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery really should threaten all night. The Bears may well feel a ‘Packlash’ here, but I take them and the points available.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at BUFFALO BILLS

Do not dare go anywhere near this one. Nobody saw Buffalo’s troubles against the Jets coming as thick and fast as they did...did they? I actually liked KC +3 last week at home to the Falcons, but I should have realised that Matt Ryan only comes alive in the regular season. And I even wrote exactly that! Ignoring your own advice, now there’s a website all of its own.

There’s very little give on the line here as the Chiefs are best available +3.5 while Buffalo are asked to overcome a 3 point handicap.

Tamba Hali returns at OLB for KC, which is pretty huge, but C. J. Spiller’s numbers last week (14 rushes for 169 yards) was...pretty huge. Purely for interest, I like the Chiefs and the points.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

I love these Ohio derbies. I have since I was young enough to appreciate the game (1984, if anybody cares enough...well, I care).

This one is easy. The Bengals were routed by the Ravens. The Ravens are good.

The Browns were pipped by the Eagles. The Eagles are believed to (still) be good. What’s not to like about Cleveland? How about Brandon Weeden’s 5.1 QB rating last week? I drink beer with a higher number than that.

Add on that cornerback Joe Haden begins his four game suspension and Cincy -6.5 looks very attractive. The highest line on the Browns is +7, but Weeden looks worse than inept. A week after winning money on Cleveland covering against Philly, only a fool would part with his money on them this week.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Dwight Freeney’s missing for the Colts this week, which is a huge blow with a Vikings team coming to town capable of racking up the yards. However, with Austin Collie poised to return at receiver for Indy, this one could develop into something of a shootout and I’d advise to buy the over/under at 44.5.

This is almost a ‘pick ‘em’ (PK) game and one to definitely avoid, but if you’re tempted either way, the line on each is Minnesota -1 and Indianapolis +1.5. Instead of focusing on the minutiae here, I’m going to want both teams to score as many points as they can. At the end of the season, this matchup will have very little consequence so let’s treat it with the fun it has tattooed all over it.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

Tampa Bay has already led the way this season. They held DeAngelo Williams and Cam Newton to a total of 10 rushing yards last week. If you thought that Brandon Weeden stole the back page ‘dreadlines’ last week, step forward the Carolina Panthers’ running game. It really is an astonishing statistic and Greg Schiano already looks likely to have a big say in what goes down in the NFC South this year. I like Greg Schiano. He’s an old school football coach and his young Bucs are buying into his program.

RGIII...say what you want about him, but please look up what John Madden said about him this week. Astonishing.

RGIII...he went to the Superdome and conquered N’Awlins and the Saints face a similar specimen this week in Newton. Now, Cam WILL gain more than 10 yards on the ground on his own this week while Drew Brees will look to utilise his receiving corps early and quickly and, much like the Vikings/Colts contest, this one could develop into a points fest.

I hate having to pick this one, but, forced to do so, I take the Saints -1. For those of a Panther persuasion, those big, black cats are available +3, which I can see being snapped up, too.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW YORK GIANTS

SPOILER ALERT – Lazy writing: Tampa Bay has already led the way this season. They held DeAngelo Williams and Cam Newton to a total of 10 rushing yards last week. If you thought that Brandon Weeden stole the back page ‘dreadlines’ last week, step forward the Carolina Panthers’ running game. It really is an astonishing statistic and Greg Schiano already looks likely to have a big say in what goes down in the NFC South this year. I like Greg Schiano. He’s an old school football coach and his young Bucs are buying into his program.

Up against Schiano this week is probably the ultimate old school football coach, but he’s not so much the angry old man any more. It’s surprising what winning two Super Bowls in five seasons will do for your personality.

The Giants’ giant problems in their secondary look to be eased this week as Prince Amukamara should play some part at cornerback, but I can’t look past Tampa’s D and love them +9.

The Big Blue are available -7 and, yes, they could easily win this one, but I don’t see them winning by ten.

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

My bet of the week came through last Sunday when Houston covered the 11 point spread at home to Miami, but I did watch more than a little nervously as the Dolphins held a 3-0 lead eight minutes into the second quarter.

Only at two bookmakers online (32RedBet and BETDAQ) are the Texans asked to cover a similar line to last week, where they’ll need to cover a 9 point handicap, but they’re generally available -7.

J.J. Watt was quite something as a rookie and quite a lot more than something last week. Wade Phillips wants to craft his pet project into the most dominant defender in the NFL and that upward curve should continue this week against a Jaguars offensive line struggling with injuries.

Blaine Gabbert was surprisingly effective in Minnesota last week, but the Houston defense will show him looks he didn’t see in Week 1 and the 2011 version of Gabbert may make an appearance.

Throughout the offseason, the Texans were strongly touted as Super Bowl material, something I never fully bought into and, even if they win by twenty points here, it gives us no further clue as to their standing as they’d have seen off the Dolphins and Jaguars.

Leave this one alone (although I’ll take the Texans -7 in this virtual scheme) and let’s see how they match up in Denver in Week 3.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Raiders were a let down on Monday night only because their long snapper (the first time I’ve ever heard of Jon Condo) went down injured. That’s why they lost to San Diego. Yes, that was the only reason. Alright, that plus the fact that Darren McFadden was their offense. Talk about telegraphing to your opponent.

Oakland’s hurting at receiver, but it’s OK because Miami shipped cornerback Vontae Davis to the Colts before Week 1. I want to believe that the Fish are already looking ahead to 2013, which means they could be useful for some back door covers this season (late scores to ruin a bet on the favourite), but this line’s too short for that (Raiders -1, Dolphins +2.5).

In all honesty, the Raiders should cover here quite comfortably, but they’re travelling to the other side of the country and will kick off at 10 a.m. PT, which should always be accounted for when betting ATS.

For that reason, I should advise on Miami +2.5, but cannot risk anything on them this week. I’m not a fan of anything the Silver and Black hold dear, but like them -1.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

What’s not to like about Arizona this week? A tough question to ask us fragile Seahawks this week. Purely from an objective standpoint, they’re 8-2 SU (straight up) over their last ten games, a line I think we’re all used to seeing by now. However, that makes them quite a fascinating proposition on the spread this week.

I’m loath to be boastful, but I just knew Tennessee would have no answer for the Pats last week and am only saying so because I advised the line as a cracking bet.

Where I wrote above about the Dolphins possibly being good for a couple of back door covers this season, well, the Cardinals could be primed for the same thing here.

New England plays in Baltimore next Sunday night on primetime (a highly probable AFC Championship Game...again) and should they be out of sight in this one late on, may well allow Arizona to cover the spread, even as late as the last minute.

It has to be the Cards +13.5.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

If I told you that the Ravens were available plus points on the spread, would you believe me? Would you also bite my arm off? The answers are No and Yes in that order. Baltimore is available +2.5 (BetFred). I plain don’t get that.

Need I really offer up any reasoning here? Needless to say, this is my bet of the week.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at ST. LOUIS RAMS

I’m going to wager that the Redskins (-3) are going to be one of the heaviest backed teams this week. My degree in ‘Quoting the Obvious’ serves me well quite frequently and I feel fortunate to be able to fall back on such an education.

Why wouldn’t they follow up last week’s stunner in the Superdome with victory in a dome rather less super? If only predicting the NFL were that easy, something that our very own Danny Kelly alluded to on Twitter after Week 1.

I’m not buying that RGIII will simply steamroller the Rams this week. Firstly, they’re on the road for the second consecutive week and secondly, I’ll take Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins over Patrick Robinson and Jabari Greer all day, every day.

I have a strong hunch that the Rams pull the mild surprise here. It’s not a game I’m going to follow with any money attached to it, merely a keen eye on events.

NEW YORK JETS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

If Washington (-3) are one of the heaviest backed teams this weekend, then it’s likely that the Jets +6.5 will be found on the same lofty ground. I have to say that it’s an extremely enticing line, but one word of caution...ahem, four words of caution: Don’t trust the Je...five words of caution (did anybody really just ask for the Spanish Inquisition?): Do not trust the Jets.

They shocked the Bills last week (except the wonderfully fluid C.J. Spiller), but going into an NFL powerhouse with a swagger is more than mildly offensive. Especially into Pittsburgh.

OLB LaMarr Woodley is no fool and has already promised that the Steelers won’t be 0-2 after this week. You know what? That’s good enough for me.

Pittsburgh’s sore after last week and I fully expect them to win from scratch. Not even close. They’re only -5 in some places, which I’d much rather be on than the aforementioned Jets +6.5.

TENNESSEE TITANS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Since the birth of the AFL to the present day, the San Diego Chargers have been synonymous with offense: ‘Air Coryell’, Charlie Joyner, Lance Alworth, Dan Fouts, Kellen Winslow, LaDainian Tomlinson. I’ll quit while I’m ahead.

This year, I’m a big fan of their front seven, further boosted this past April by the drafting of Melvin Ingram and Kendall Reyes and it’s a defense that should keep them in many games, invaluable to us handicappers.

With the visit of Tennessee this week, that D, OK, secondary will be the first to face Kenny Britt since Week 3 of last season and while it’s a major boost for the Titans, exactly how ready will Britt be? The coaching staff’s talking about him playing 20-25 snaps this week and as luck might have it, Chargers cornerback Quentin Jammer suffered a broken hand last week. Now, Jammer may still play this week, but one casual bash on the injury and he’ll be done for a couple of weeks at least. Of course, Britt wouldn’t be so careless...

San Diego’s available -6 while the Titans can be backed +6.5. Neither line interests me, but I take the Chargers for fun.

DETROIT LIONS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

You want to know how worried the Lions are about going to San Fran after squeaking past the Rams at home last week? They claimed in midweek that Calvin Johnson is injured. It almost shouldn’t be allowed. It’s the antithesis to Bountygate.

Detroit coach Jim Schwartz fell for it hook, line and sinker last season when he let himself get rattled by Jim Harbaugh and THAT handshake, a handshake that’s been hard to...shake all week. You have to hand it to Harbaugh. Jeez, do I never give in?

I hope Detroit do a number on the Niners this week, naturally, and it’s not beyond the realms. However, I do see San Francisco being attractive -6.5, particularly with the Lions so desperately thin at running back. Matthew Stafford will need to win this one through the air and rely almost exclusively on his receivers, a tactic that may wear thin very quickly.

As much as it pains me, the home team to cover the spread.

DENVER BRONCOS at ATLANTA FALCONS

The over/under for this one is 51. I think I’d still be on the over if it was 61.

For spread betting purposes, I love the Falcons -3, a lot. (Broncos available +3.5).

To those of you who bothered to make it to the bottom of this post, I thank you sincerely. So, to close, my ‘Aaron Curry’ this week is Atlanta -3, my bet of the week is Baltimore +2.5 and I also really like Tampa Bay +9 and Cincinnati -6.5.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 2: Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks

2012-09-12T20:20:00.001+01:00

DALLAS COWBOYS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Be careful what you wish for. I might mean Russell Wilson being anointed the starting quarterback in Seattle or Kevin Kolb taking over for an injured John Skelton in the fourth quarter last Sunday. Or both.

In all fairness, I think that after the dust has settled on Week 1, we can emphatically discount the former. I wouldn’t necessarily join the chorus who say that Wilson blatantly looked like a rookie in Arizona, although that’s not to say that he can’t be accused of (that does look a bit strong when written down) making some rookie mistakes. Heck, he is a rookie and these things are going to happen, but he still possesses something special and will win football games for the Seahawks, no matter how disconsolate we may feel right now. That we most definitely can wish for.

No, if we want to discuss somebody who personified the true identity of a rabbit in headlights on his regular season debut, then all we need do is thank the Football Gods that Brandon Weeden doesn’t reside on the Seahawks’ roster. Even after one game, I’d be hoping that Colt McCoy gets the nod in Week 2 if I were a Browns follower. McCoy was always the better quarterback and now we know that to be an obvious truth.

Why the interest in Cleveland here? It’s because, before enduring the painful seven hours (which is what it seemed like in the final two minutes) of Seattle’s defeat to the Cardinals, I had money riding on the Browns +9 at home to Philadelphia and, while emotionally it doesn’t compare to watching the Seahawks, watching Weeden have to rely on his defense in order for his team to cover the spread, wasn’t pretty. Ultimately, I got the result, but that doesn’t help us as a community any.

One glaring irony to reflect upon after Sunday is that the quarterback who’d looked the most accomplished in the preseason didn’t get it done against the quarterback who’d looked the most abject in the preseason. How Kolb pulled what he did against a defense that had slowly strangled Skelton in the second half defies logic. All logic.

If I may go back to the beginning of the game, as soon as the ball was kicked off, it felt like a big game. It felt like a playoff game and I honestly don’t think that’s hyperbole. I can think of so many games from last season where the atmosphere came nowhere close to what was evident on Sunday and with Jeff Fisher already looking as though he’ll have the ~~London~~ Rams in tons better shape than last year, the NFC West will gradually inch further away from ridicule.

Before Week 1, I had Dallas pegged +2.5 for this one, but that’s now been turned on its head. Our partners at Oddsshark opened the line with Seattle +2.5, but the hosts are available +3 with a plethora of online bookmakers (the entire directory is too long to list here) that includes bet365, William Hill and 32RedBet. Personally, I have the Seahawks +3.5, a line not founded in pessimism, but a healthy dose of realism with its roots firmly entrenched in an injury report that hugely favours ‘America’s Team’.

Aside from quarterback, wide receiver in the Pacific Northwest had generated the most discussion throughout the offseason; quarterback may yet top the trending billboard any time soon, but that’s way too soon in my opinion.

After a Sunday in the desert that saw Doug Baldwin lose his front teeth and Charly Martin remain hospitalised in Arizona having suffered a bruised lung (which barely believes thinking about), Seattle’s looking a little vulnerable at receiver. Note ‘little’ as it’s not earth shattering...yet. Yes, Golden Tate is expected to play, but we’re up against a more than useful secondary that boasts Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne at cornerback.

Left tackle Russell Okung limped out of Sunday’s game with what turned out to be only a bruised knee, but he wasn’t enjoying his most memorable outing before that. There’s no guarantee he’ll play this Sunday, but if he does he won’t be able to afford any slip ups against DeMarcus Ware, arguably the NFL’s most dominant, all round pass rusher. Ware notched up two sacks against the Giants and my fear is that Okung will have an ego as bruised as his knee, come Sunday evening. Look for the Seahawks to give Okung some help against Ware, something I didn’t imagine myself writing before the season began.

Winning on the road in the NFL should never be underestimated and, should this be accomplished, it often translates to that team covering the spread at the same time (the Eagles failed to do both last week).

Having smashed the spread in New Jersey last week, Dallas can expect to find themselves heavily fancied to do the same this Sunday and should they repeat their Week 1 feat, that’ll make them a dangerous team to bet against in future weeks. However, even though the Cowboys have had the longest week imaginable between regular season games, they have had to travel to opposite sides of the country on consecutive weeks (via Cowboy Ranch), which may account for something for those who feel the Seahawks to be good value.

As the season wears on, where a team ranks offensively and defensively becomes more and more important when considering which teams represent the most value ATS (against the spread), but it’s way too early to judge any team on that, otherwise the whole world and his dog would be on the Buccaneers this week (+9 at the Giants...hmmm, that is tempting though), having surrendered only 10 yards rushing against the Panthers last week. Considering that Carolina was able to unleash DeAngelo Williams and Cam Newton on the ground makes that particular statistic the most ludicrous from Week 1 and one not to be trusted...for the moment; Tampa Bay could be playoff bound.

Likewise, as much as we may be clinging to the burgeoning euphoria of yielding only 43 yards rushing last week in defeat, it means little after one game...for the moment.

Wilson was pressured constantly by a Cardinals defense I’d underestimated and, should they perform at that level throughout the season, they’ll keep Arizona in more games than I envisioned. As a point of interest (?), they’re available +13.5 in New England this Sunday.

Cowboys’ stud nose tackle Jay Ratliff missed last week’s opener, but he certainly wasn’t missed when it came to defending the run as the Giants reverted to type from 2011, cultivating only 82 yards on the ground. Should Ratliff be available this week (which is unlikely...thankfully!), Wilson can expect to see/feel as much pressure as he did last week. How he deals with that and the undoubted pressure from Ware, will determine much, but that isn’t rocket science, if I’m honest with myself and the readership. In fact, if I’m honest with myself again, even without Ratliff playing, Wilson can still expect as much heat as he felt last week.

Delving a little deeper, what Wilson won’t have to deal with this week is (divisional) crowd noise when lining up under center. Conversely, Cowboys QB, Tony Romo, has previous with the Seahawks faithful and, knowing him to once be vulnerable to such a cacophony in the same surroundings, can expect to find himself difficult to be heard when directing the offense at the line of scrimmage.

Should Dallas beat Seattle, they can immediately be spoken of in the same breath as New England, San Francisco and Baltimore (and it’s ridiculous to discount Green Bay after one home loss, albeit to a good team) as serious threats to go all the way to the Super Bowl, the obvious reason being that not only would they be 2-0, but 2-0 on the road against perceived good teams. However, Romo won’t have it so easy when looking for Kevin Ogletree this week.

It’s one thing to beat up on a Giants secondary missing Terrell Thomas and Prince Amukamara, quite another trying to do the same against a dynamic Seahawks secondary, a secondary still smarting from Kolb picking their locks. In addition, unlike the Giants right now, Seattle’s starting cornerbacks and safeties are all healthy, something to seriously consider for those leaning towards the Cowboys.

This is incredibly close to call, but, whereas I’ll always advise on which games to avoid when looking at the weekly spreads around the league, I will be going out on a limb when looking at the Seahawks and always with an objective eye.

Objectively, I take the Cowboys -3. Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Odds, Week 1: Around the League

2012-09-05T18:23:00.002+01:00

Having already given you my ‘can’t miss’ bet of the week (the ‘Aaron Curry’, as it shall now become known), when laying it on pretty thick how much of a good thing the Seahawks are against the spread (ATS) this week in Arizona, it’s time to introduce you to how the rest of the NFL is shaping up in the various sportsbooks online...if you aren’t fortunate enough to be in Vegas.
From Wednesday to Monday, from New Jersey to Oakland, this is the sporting moment of the year so far, this side of February. The sporting moment of the year apart from when I was laid low for 17 days with Olympic Fever, something that actually did cause me to phone in sick the morning after the closing ceremony as I couldn’t face the banality of the office after seeing London transform its beautiful self. People even smiled. What days they were. Yes, it did all feel like a Frank Capra movie.

As I’ve written previously, Week 1 of the NFL season is the time to keep your $$$ firmly in your pocket. However, what lies beneath is a horror story of predictions from yours truly, the objective being to look back next week at what might have been if we’d carelessly decided to put the house, the car and the family dog on Cleveland covering the spread against Philly.

I wasn’t originally going to predict each and every game (the ridicule is a deterrent in itself), but let’s see how this week goes. This column could always evolve over the course of the season and I hope that some of you perhaps have a little fun reading it. Now, let’s get prognosticating.

DALLAS COWBOYS at NEW YORK GIANTS

Dallas can generally be backed +4 points on the handicap, while if you like the Giants to cover the spread, they’re available -3.5 points. This is a game to leave well alone. Just enjoy it for what it is. Football’s back, albeit on a Wednesday.

Ever since the Super Bowl champion hosted the opener on a Thursday, that host has won nine of the ten contests so far. That bodes terribly for Dallas and, while my money won’t be following this pick, I take the Giants to cover the spread.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at CHICAGO BEARS

The Bears are my Super Bowl XLVII tip (I got on at 33/1 before some bookies saw sense) and there’s no way they lose to the Colts on Sunday. They wouldn’t dare. It’d be bad luck.

Indy are available +9.5, while Chicago can be found -9. This may well have rout written all over it, but there’s an important intangible to consider here. Four days after this one, the Bears take on Green Bay at Lambeau. They’ll have their eye on that one so I take the Colts here and the points on offer.

ATLANTA FALCONS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This is a good matchup and a test for Atlanta’s aerial attack. The fact that Julio Jones is one of my fantasy keepers won’t have me rushing to watch this one though. KC might prove attractive +3 at home, especially if your lingering memory of the Falcons is their 24-2 misery on wild card weekend last season.

And to think, they even took a 2-0 lead. Matt Ryan is a regular season kinda guy, that’s where the stats really count, not in the playoffs and that’s why he point blank refuses to win in the postseason. Good for him!

LaDainian was right all along...it’s all about the Hall of Fame. Why on earth would anybody want to win a Super Bowl? KC to pull the minor upset here.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at CLEVELAND BROWNS

Forgive me Father, for I have sinned. No, I really have. Going against all the evidence available in black and white, I’ve put money down on the Browns (+9) to win ATS versus Philly. However, that was before stud cornerback Joe Haden had gotten himself a four game suspension.

As I write, he’s waiting to hear the outcome of his appeal, but if he is out, I can probably rule out any return on my investment.

The Eagles are available -8, which is probably being snapped up as the odds on Haden being given a reprieve are about as good as the Browns are to cover the spread without him. Now, where’s my bookie’s Platinum Loser phone number gone...?

If Haden plays, I like the Browns +9. If he doesn’t, the Eagles should cover -8.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Go on, you can say it. Who gets to be shown the money after the first real lick on RGIII? If all roads in the NFC playoffs are to go through New Orleans to reach, er...New Orleans, then the Saints will have to have had one hell of a season. I secretly hope it happens so that we can see Ben Stiller playing Sean Payton in the film.

They should have little problem getting past the ‘Skins, but it’s not a game I’m looking to bet on. There’s a nice little discrepancy on the spread here as Washington are available +9 while N’Awlins can be backed -7. If pushed, the Redskins to cover...just.

ST. LOUIS RAMS at DETROIT LIONS

As good a cornerback as Cortland Finnegan is (and nobody knows him as well as Jeff Fisher), it’s a reach to ask him to have any amount of success on his own against Calvin Johnson this Sunday. The discrepancy that can be found in the Skins/Saints spread is also on show here.

The Rams are available +9 (which means Detroit are -9 on the same sportsbook), but the Lions can also be had -7, which looks to be very tasty.

Sam Bradford’s had a good preseason and may have some success against Detroit’s very shaky secondary (Louis Delmas missing at safety would be a huge blow), but it’s difficult to forget how horrible the Rams were last season. I have a lot of respect for Jeff Fisher, but not enough to think they’ll cover the spread this week.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at TENNESSEE TITANS

Every sportsbook I can find has the Titans +6. There’s not even a half point extra available anywhere, which is astonishing. That looks a little too skinny for my liking and I like the Patriots a lot to cover the spread.

Bill Belichick has probably had sleepless nights (of the good variety!) devising a defensive gameplan for Jake Locker to get his sophomore head around. This is one of my bets of the week.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Of all the games this week, this one really frightens me and I don’t just mean in offensive output, although that’s probably a little unfair to the Purple People Eaters. Yeah, it’s an old nickname and it was the moniker for the defense and not those charged with lighting up the scoreboard, but those old nicknames are part of NFL lore and what helped get me hooked in 1984 so, if I may be so bold, I’d like to wheel them out on the odd occasion.

I can see the Vikes generating interest -3.5, while the best available on the Jags is +4, but, as I began to allude to above before getting horribly distracted, which in turn horribly distracted you, neither team is to be trusted this week. However, for the purposes of this experiment, I take Minnesota to win by at least four.

BUFFALO BILLS at NEW YORK JETS

Anybody new to this gladiatorial chess would be excused for thinking that only one team plays in New York. They do, it’s the Jets’ opponent this week. OK, New Jersey then. The reigning Super Bowl champions reside in the same stadium as the Jets and yet it’s the green cousin who somehow hogs the limelight. It must be this “exciting” Tim Tebow fellow, who’s so “excited” to be a Jet that the media simply forgot about the exciting Super Bowl victory the blue half of the city recently enjoyed.

Buffalo was available +4 when the line first opened, but that’s now been trimmed to 3 (2.5 in some places) so the smart money is on the Bills’ new, all singing, all dancing defense to do a number on the Mark Sanchez/Tebow axis.

My smart money goes nowhere, but I favour the Jets to cover, if for no other reason than they can’t be as bad as they were in the preseason. I agree, I don’t know what I’m doing.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at HOUSTON TEXANS

How are the Dolphins going to score any points at all against that Texans defense? Only special teams or a careless Matt Schaub can help. Even more than I like the Seahawks this week, Houston -11 is my bet of the week.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

An outstanding matchup awaits us as Aaron Rodgers goes against the Niners’ vaunted D. I’m inclined to favour San Fran and the 6 points on offer, but Green Bay -5 is also very appealing. Much like the Wednesday opener, just enjoy this for what it is, happy in the knowledge that we’re all Packers fans for three hours.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Panthers -1, available in more places than should be allowed, are fantastic value here. My only slight doubt with the Panthers this season is a possible Cam Newton sophomore slump. However, he’s not a one trick pony and appears to have everything he needs at his disposal, including support from everybody around him.

This is Newton’s team and will be for as long as he wants it to be. Even Steve Smith lifted his head from the pillow in 2011 as Newton rejuvenated him last season. Yes, Cam did that. On his own.

The Bucs are adapting to a new system under Greg Schiano and can’t be trusted this week (although I love what he’s doing in Tampa) against a settled Panthers organisation on an upward curve.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at DENVER BRONCOS

I can see Denver being heavily fancied here -1. That’s what having Peyton Manning under center will do for you. They’re the trendy pick to make a deep playoff run, but I can’t shake the feeling that Manning has no chance of seeing out the whole season.

The shrewdest choice here is to side with Pittsburgh +2 and, while I’m doing nothing of the sort with real money in the real world, I’m doing exactly that virtually or virally, or whatever the term may be.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

If it wasn’t for receiver Lee Evans and kicker Billy Cundiff last year, the Ravens would’ve represented the AFC in the Super Bowl...and they would’ve won. The Giants only serve up their Cinderella stories against the Patriots and the outcome would have been different had Eli come up against a Ravens defense far superior to anything the Pats had.

And what better way to begin exacting revenge than by beating up on a division opponent you swept last season?

If I believe that Cam Newton will avoid a sophomore slump, I don’t believe that Andy Dalton will be as fortunate. Yes, I have nothing to go on, it’s just a hunch, but as I’m armed only with that in Week 1 of the regular season, I’m basing my pick solely on that.

The Ravens to cover -6; the Bengals are available +6.5.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at OAKLAND RAIDERS

Some sportsbooks can’t split these two, meaning there’s no handicap available, which is the best line available on San Diego as they’re -1.5 in some places.

The best you’ll find on Oakland is +1.5. I’m looking forward to this one and not just because I find it difficult to separate the teams either. No, I enjoy watching our old AFC West foes go up against each other. Nostalgia has its place and that place is on Monday Night Football to close the first week of the regular season. I’ll take any points on offer, which equates to the Raiders +1.5.

Should I escape from this with anything above an 8-8 record, I’ll be happy.

So, to close, the ‘Aaron Curry’ bet is the Seahawks (-2.5), the Patriots (-6) represent very good value and the Texans (-11) should be able to blow the Dolphins away at home.

NFL Odds, Week 1: Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

2012-09-05T18:03:00.002+01:00

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

Please gamble responsibly. That’s the sage advice that rightfully accompanies any betting advertisement. Last year, I gave spread betting advice on every game of the 2011 season (that can still be seen at Rob’s NFL Yard, but why would you wish to revisit that?), which, while proving to be almost the most fun you can have on this side of the pond, I quickly grew to realise that tipping up teams based on the spread on offer in Vegas (or elsewhere, as I’ll be pointing out this season) can prove ridiculously treacherous; hardly responsible tipping. If I may be so bold as to type this, it’s one thing to pick your winners from scratch, quite another when trying to justify why your hard earned should be placed with faith on the Rams +7 points at home to the Cowboys.

I wish I knew why I picked the Rams there, a team I hold no love for aligned as they are along with Seattle in the NFC West. Perhaps I’m behaving like the jilted groom at the altar. After all, the city that boasts one half of The Golden Arches had the temerity to tease us Londoners with the promise of three ‘home’ games in 2012, ’13 and ’14, yet before we had time to discuss the honeymoon in Paris, off they scarpered back to Missouri after one outing against the Patriots this October.

Still, we’re not bitter. How can we be? We have the Jaguars coming to town. Never let it be said that us NFL Brits don’t ‘get’ the game.

So, aside from being subjected to the big cats from Florida once a year for four consecutive seasons, there are reasons to be cheerful for such small mercies and, not unconnected to that is the fact that, despite Week 1 of the NFL season ordinarily being one to keep your pennies firmly in your pocket, there are invariably gems to be had and, lo and behold, one of two to be had this week is Seattle in Arizona.

Conventional wisdom has it that the Seahawks don’t travel well and that this is a reason to be cautious when considering them this week. Where do I start on this one? We lost in San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Dallas last season, no disgrace. Yes, the defeat to the Cardinals to finish the season was wholly dispiriting, but our wild card hopes had already gone up in smoke one week earlier so motivation levels were hardly where they should have been. In my opinion, Seattle gave that game to Arizona, which translates to those aforementioned motivation levels being the polar opposite to the feeling among the team right now.

Now, back to the Seahawks not travelling well. I do recall sitting through a turgid defeat to Cleveland last season, but if you look in the record books, the passing of time has relegated that to Mariners 3-6 Indians. The Seahawks were allowed an elongated bye week having performed like giants in New Jersey in Week 5 and, as it turns out, took the NFL up on its offer in Week 7.

Stunning the Big Blue was thoroughly deserved (as 11 point underdogs, no less) and although Seattle badly beat up on a badly beat up Bears team in Week 15, a 38-14 victory is no fluke so, even allowing for a little bias on my part, I don’t sit in the camp that states the Seahawks are to be avoided this week.

Seattle’s survived the recently completed preseason relatively unscathed, a turn of events that hasn’t befallen the Cardinals. Not only have they lost starting left tackle Levi Brown for the season, but now Jeremy Bridges, a solid backup on the line, is also done for the season, leaving D’Anthony Batiste protecting John Skelton’s blind side. Skelton’s been anointed the starter at QB, but, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk is never coy in pointing out, all this means is that Skelton will be the first to lose the job because, something else Florio also likes to furnish us with is that when a team has two quarterbacks, they really have no quarterback and it has to be admitted that, right now, with the season upon us, Arizona really does appear to have no quarterback.

Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt can only look at Seattle’s QB situation with envy, but it’s amazing where solid drafting and shrewd free agency acquisitions can get you. Whisenhunt bought Andy Reid’s Jedi mind trick after the lockout last year when it came to giving up some of the Empire to acquire Kevin Kolb and the only comfort he can derive from it is that he’s in good company when it comes to teams being fleeced by the Philadelphia Skywalkers.

The line for this one opened with Seattle +2.5, an incredulous spread in hindsight, but who could’ve foreseen what Wilson would give us a glimpse of? The line has turned on its head and it’s the Seahawks who now find themselves -2.5 (-3 on some books) after a ton of public money on the team with the “sick” new uniforms, if Jermichael Finley is to be believed.

While all eyes will naturally be on Wilson, in case he should come up short (I love a pun as much as the next prognosticator, but this one honestly isn’t deliberate), Seattle’s offense shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball on the ground. Up against a Cardinals defense that ranked 21^st against the run last year, Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin and Leon Washington should be able to find plenty of space and all this of course is without taking into account the scrambling ability of Wilson if/when the pocket collapses. Without tempting fate too much, now the games that count are here, the Seahawks could have a monster rushing day on Sunday, thus also controlling the clock.

When Arizona chooses to run it, they possess a dynamic attack themselves...on paper. Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams have everything an offense could want when associated with the Skelton/Kolb double headed monster under center, but Williams has yet to register a carry in the regular season after having his rookie year wiped through injury while Wells’ preseason only began in the fourth week of the meaningless schedule.

Seattle’s defense is primed for a big year and they really couldn’t have wished for a better team to make a statement of intent against than the Cardinals. A banged up backfield, a shaky offensive line and a dire quarterback situation is what awaits this opportunistic Seahawks D and if they can’t show the rest of the league the potential to be a top five defense on Sunday, then, frankly, they’ll struggle to prove it all season long, particularly when looking at a brutal early schedule.

I haven’t even mentioned Larry Fitzgerald. It’s because he shouldn’t even be a factor this week. Should Skelton (or Kolb) be afforded the requisite protection to thread the ball to him, he’ll likely find Seattle’s secondary all over him...and some.

I realise that I make this wager sound so easy, but it really should be. If the Seahawks can come away with a road W to open the season, that’s all we can ask for. However, with my head ruling my heart on matters of the wallet, that’s not all that I’m asking for; I’m asking for them to cover the spread. I don’t want us to just win by two, I need us to win by at least three in order to cover the spread.

Seattle can be backed -2.5 with, among others, Skybet, Blue Square, Paddy Power and William Hill. Let the games begin.

Please gamble responsibly.

NFL Preseason: Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs

2012-09-05T17:55:00.001+01:00

Pete Carroll, you’ve made me start all over again. I had the perfect pitch for this post. Russell Wilson, as had been the case in the first two preseason games, would heed the call for the second half in Kansas City this week after Matt Flynn had hopefully impressed enough over the first two quarters and I was going to write how the Seahawks were the biggest of all locks this week on the handicap because of it.
Then came the curveball. It won’t take the geniuses amongst you (of which there are hopefully more than the obligatory few) to work out why, but I’ll hammer the point home anyway.

So incredible has Wilson looked against second and third string defences that there was no way Seattle would come unstuck against the Chiefs’ depth chart cellar dwellers. His athleticism alone ranks him head and shoulders above anything and anybody he would’ve seen in the second half on Friday, but, no, the first real test of Wilson’s versatility will come against KC’s starting defense…and in a stadium not known for its hospitality towards opponents.

Our partners at oddsshark.com are giving the matchup the ‘PK’ treatment. If I may be allowed to illustrate the same point as last week, for anybody who missed that post, here’s another brief explanation as to what constitutes ‘PK’: an abbreviation for "pick" or "pick ‘em", indicating that neither team is favoured nor the underdog, meaning the point spread is zero. Effectively, you're betting on either team from scratch.

Thank you.

Had Carroll proceeded with the status quo, the mere thought of backing the Seahawks from scratch this week with the certainty of Wilson picking apart a bunch of soon-to-be practice squadders (if such a word exists), or worse, is akin to receiving a nod and a wink from the croupier about which of red or black is up next. Preseason is a crapshoot for anybody willing to lay down their hard earned, but the Seahawks have previous in victories over Tennessee and Denver with Wilson at the helm in the second half. He’s been arguably the biggest talking point throughout the entire league at a time when the results of games don’t matter.

The preseason is a time when It’s better to be able to experiment with a modicum of success and lose games than it is to play conservative and win. The Seahawks are currently both experimenting and winning and it’s proving potent. However, that whole dynamic may change this week and is why the certainty of the Seahawks covering the spread is less with Wilson starting.

There’s been a steady flow of outrageously pinpoint analysis and insight on these pages this week regarding Wilson from Danny, Derek, Kenneth and Davis (and you thought BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the ultimate law firm), content and detail I doff my cap to. Suffice to say it’s staggeringly good reading while also highlighting why the Seahawks can still be considered a good thing from a betting viewpoint this week. My own particular reservation boils down to Wilson facing the best Chiefs personnel possible at just about the worst time…even in the preseason.

Just last Saturday, six days removed from being embarrassed 38-3 by Indianapolis, St. Louis entertained KC, whereupon the Rams’ own offensive starters promptly proceeded to play as the Colts had against them. Before the Chiefs could even wonder why the Rams had left London standing at the altar (it’s OK, we’re on a Jaguar rebound), they found themselves 14-0 behind in under five minutes. All the motivation Kansas City needs for this one can be found in the postgame words of coach Romeo Crennel, quotes that may find themselves dotted around the locker room.

"Well, it was not very good tonight. And that's being a little generous to say that," Crennel said. "When you're breaking camp and doing all those kinds of things, it just shows we're not mature enough yet. No one really played good."

Russell Wilson, digest all of that and expect an express of red and white all around you. Seattle’s O line will have your back, but events ain’t going to appear as slow as they have been of late. If they are, well, we’re looking at Joe Cool Mk. II.

I’m a little nervous as to how Wilson performs, but the day was always going to come when he’d see the likes of Eric Berry and Brandon Flowers across from him. KC’s pass defense was ranked 6^th overall last season and that was without Berry’s contribution, but you can still bet your bottom dollar that Wilson himself can’t wait to get out there. His confidence will be through the roof and, allied to innate athletic ability and out-and-out dynamism, his is the must-see performance across the league this week; it’ll be fascinating to see what fronts he faces from the home team.

Looking at this pragmatically, the Seahawks could, and probably should, have more luck running the ball. The Chiefs ranked 26^th in rushing yards allowed per game last season (132) and, when you see what’s been added on the defensive side of the ball, the patrons in Arrowhead Stadium may be seeing much of the same in 2012. Any of Marshawn Lynch, Leon Washington and Robert Turbin could reasonably be expected to find space to run through and the relative success of the running game will naturally play into Wilson’s hands anyway.

Matt Cassel is always under the microscope, it would appear, but none more so than this year. Offensively, the Chiefs look potent and he has everything he needs at his disposal, including perhaps their most important addition this offseason, running back Peyton Hillis. With the Madden curse and sense of entitlement behind him, he can settle for a role behind Jamaal Charles and without Hillis’s strutting and preening from last year, Kansas City possesses an explosive rushing attack.

Cassel’s been impressive thus far in the preseason, going 18-for-24 for 209 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs over two games. However, the defences in Arizona and St. Louis are far less dominant than in Seattle and if it’s not overstating the fact here by saying that this is the Seahawks stiffest test so far, then the same can also be said for Kansas City.

Without tempting fate, I fully expect Flynn to put up some decent numbers in the second half. That said, Week 3 of the preseason is where teams keep their starters in for the longest amount of time (you can forget next week…that’s just all about avoiding injuries and damage limitation) so Flynn may be a little handicapped in comparison to Wilson over the past two weeks. Still, Flynn doesn’t need his hand held, especially knowing what he does now…the kid can play and has already won the hearts and minds of the Seattle faithful; I bet both QBs have never felt so alive.

Our anticipation for each forthcoming game has grown week on week and this is the most frenetic it’ll get until the trip to Arizona in Week 1 of the regular season. The Seahawks were a no brainer with Flynn starting and I still like Seattle as the pick (PK) with Flynn finishing.

I wrote last week of the Seahawks being available with a two point start for the aforementioned road opener in Arizona, a bet that represented tremendous value. The line has been shaved slightly and Seattle can be backed +1.5 points with totesport, betfred and bwin.

NFL Preseason: Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos

2012-09-05T17:48:00.002+01:00

Not a bad way to begin matters, eh? Last Saturday went very smoothly. One down and we own a 100% record.

Oh yeah, and the Seahawks dismantled the Titans of Tennessee, 27-17.

I ceded to post-Olympic emotion last week in picking Seattle -3 points to cover the spread and vowed that would be my sole, heart-over-head pick the entire season. If I’m honest, that may not necessarily be accurate because a good old fashioned hunch can have a substantial say when it comes to handing over your hard earned to your friendly sportsbook compiler, but you’ll no doubt see me elaborate on this further once the regular season kicks in.

Due to a quirk in the preseason schedule, the Seahawks come face to face with another Tennessee titan this week, of the Volunteer variety this time. Peyton Manning avoided anything much of anything defensive when up against Chicago last week and, to deviate slightly, I should perhaps be casting nervous glances towards Illinois.

The Bears are my Super Bowl XLVII tip (I’m on at 33/1 and they’re still available on many books at 28/1) so what am I to make of their 31-3 drubbing at the hands of the Broncos last week? At Soldier Field, no less. Note that I should be casting nervous glances. I’m not because results in the preseason count for nothing. In addition, Week 1 of the preseason sees vanilla packages and schemes and the time to look too closely at what transpired certainly isn’t now…unless, perhaps, you’re of an Arizona Cardinals leaning.

Back to Manning, it’s unlikely (though not impossible) we’ll see much more of him than last week, when he went 4 of 7 for 44 yards and an interception. However, he’ll be up against a Seattle front four more imposing than anything he saw against the Bears and, against a top tier secondary, this will be the first real test of Manning’s ability since his well documented injuries/surgeries.

When the Seahawks’ offense takes the field, it’s business as usual (if such business can be usual after one week of implementation) as Matt Flynn has been promised the start with Russell Wilson showcasing his abilities over the final 30 minutes. Both QBs had their moments against the Titans, but it was Wilson who proved the more eye catching (naturally, one assumes) and the quiet buzz about the rookie pushing to be the starter in Week 1 of the regular season will only increase should he perform similarly in Denver. Personally, I hope that Flynn shows enough to warrant the money thrown at him and beats out Wilson, for now.

Wilson would prove to be a fabulous weapon once proper football starts, coming off the bench if required or if/when Flynn really does stink the joint up on Any…Given…Sunday.

In the longer term, Wilson becomes the quarterback upon which we rest our Super Bowl hopes, exciting and dazzling us in equal measure, or he’s developed and moulded into All Pro trade bait. I’m loving both of our QBs at present and rarely has addition by subtraction been more clearly defined than via the sudden, almost rude demotion of Tarvaris Jackson. Two quarterbacks will always trump three quarterbacks and if the position under center could emit emotion, you can almost hear the exhalation and loosening of the belt from our old friend that once housed Jim Zorn, Dave Krieg and Matt Hasselbeck.

When considering the spread for the matchup against the Broncos, there’s a significant point of interest which goes some way to explaining the difficulty in gauging exactly what lies ahead come kickoff during the preseason.

My own take on events is that the Seahawks are deserving of +3.5 points on the handicap. Our partners at oddsshark.com see things a little differently, offering Seattle +2.5. However, many sportsbooks can’t split the teams and offer PK. As a brief introduction to this nomenclature, PK is an abbreviation for “pick” or “pick ‘em”, indicating that neither team is favoured nor the underdog, meaning the point spread is zero. Effectively, you’re betting on either team from scratch.

So, the Seahawks can be backed with an almost field goal start, which I do see being popular. I would advise against that, but I’m wary of being too emphatic as literally anything can happen on Saturday.

Despite coaches and coordinators opening up the playbook a little more this week, it can be expected that starters will see no more than two or three series. For those of you encouraged by Seattle plus any points on offer, the drop off in talent under center once Manning departs is cavernous when compared to Jake Locker replacing Matt Hasselbeck; step forward Caleb Hanie, Brock Osweiler and Adam Weber.

Seattle will feel confident when Manning isn’t throwing the ball, having done a tremendous job of stopping Chris Johnson last week and, whoever’s given the early carries for Denver on Saturday will be running behind an offensive line missing starting guard Chris Kuper, who’s out for a few weeks with a broken forearm. Yes, I expect the Seahawks to begin the game very positively and if this were in the regular season, it’s a mouth watering encounter.

I am accentuating the positives for Seattle here, but I’m swayed from going all in on them for a couple of reasons, the first being that it’s a road game. It’s fair and dandy for us to look at last week as a tantalising peek into a brave new Seahawks future and I’m as excited as anybody reading this. However, these posts aren’t meant to paint a College Navy, Action Green and Wolf Grey picture. It’s about how I view the betting angle and, this particular week, I embrace Denver (PK).

So, while last week was a thing of beauty in many ways, visiting the Broncos is a different proposition. This is a stern test for Flynn, Wilson, Robert Turbin et al and comes at the perfect time. Only after the dust has settled on this one can we speak about the Seahawks’ progress objectively.

The Broncos enter this one on a high after last week and there likely won’t be an empty seat anywhere as No. 18 is all that matters to the natives.

I’m loath to burst any bubbles here so wish to bring to your attention to what appears to be an absolutely stonking bet in Week 1 of the regular season. Considering the problems the Arizona Cardinals are enduring at present, it’s positively ludicrous that the Seahawks are currently available +2 points with William Hill. I kid you not.

Now, the Cardinals are at home this week after two consecutive road games in the Midwest so I expect to read better reports of them after Friday. However, that’s no guarantee as they really are in a rut and if they don’t find a way to quickly settle their quarterback controversy, confidence around the franchise will hit rock bottom and the line will surely shift towards Seattle. That looks to be the bet of Week 1 by some margin, but I do also like Cleveland +9 points at home to Philadelphia. Honestly!

NFL Preseason: Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks

2012-08-11T09:12:00.002+01:00

I don’t care much for the preseason. There, got it out of my system. I used to care, a lot.

The NFL brought the preseason to Wembley Stadium back in August 1986. Actually, that’s not entirely correct. They brought William Perry to Wembley Stadium in August 1986 under the guise of the Chicago Bears vs. the Dallas Cowboys, but we were a naïve bunch back then and the league could have sold us anything.
Turns out they did and the Emperor’s New Clothes soon became apparent as attendances dwindled in the ensuing years before, eventually, the whole plan was scrapped. Those of us who stuck around thereafter needed meaningful football.

The more eagle-eyed of you out there will perhaps note that I’ve contradicted myself somewhat as I’ve previously entrenched myself (firmly) in the preseason camp, but I didn’t say I have no time for the preseason at all, just that I don’t care much for it. However, this Saturday, I’ll allow myself to care a little more than usual due to the homecoming of a couple of Seahawk titans along with a local titan; I’ll throw in Jordan Babineaux, too.

With almost every bookmaker imaginable, the Seattle Seahawks are listed as 3 point favourites over the visiting Tennessee Titans, a figure akin to throwing ten coins into the air and seeing which one lands first. Handicapping can be challenging at the best of times, but the first game of the preseason? Pick your poison, fellas, and brace yourselves.

A fact significantly forgotten is just how close the Titans came to clinching a wild card berth last season, finishing with the same 9-7 record as Cincinnati while also conceding fewer points than the Bengals. This, without the services of Kenny Britt for 13 games and Chris Johnson for what must have seemed like 13 games at many points last year for those of a Titan persuasion.

Alas, we’re deprived of seeing Britt on Saturday and fans of all teams will likely be rowing the same boat the longer his list of indiscretions continues, including now ranting against his own employers. This man clearly has too much time on his hands, but with (most of?) us being rapt by T.O. at present, I’m not about to castigate a talented receiver with a behaviour issue.

With Britt sidelined, Kendall Wright’s star shines brighter, but just how willing Mike Munchak is to give him significant playing time against Seattle’s starting secondary remains to be seen. I’m as keen as any Seahawks fan to see this unit’s progress, not a sentiment Wright shares right now.

*As I write, it’s still unclear which one of Tennessee’s North West idols will start at quarterback, suffice to say that the coaches surely lean towards Jake Locker getting the nod in Week 1 of the regular season, so look for him to start on Saturday with Matt Hasselbeck sharing the duties and Rusty Smith picking up the pieces late on.

Britt’s wobble and a brutal opening four games aside, these are exciting times for the Titans and if Locker manages to survive the Patriots, Chargers, Lions and Texans without being benched, then we know Matt will be the gentleman he always has been and step aside graciously.

No such gentlemanly conduct exists on Seattle’s side of the ball as the three-way QB competition begins in earnest. Matt Flynn’s been promised the first half and Russell Wilson the second, a decision that’s raised a few eyebrows league wide, but I don’t see why. Tarvaris Jackson is yesterday’s news and, while Flynn’s performance intrigues me, am I the only one slightly enchanted at the prospect of what Wilson offers?

If Terrell Owens is saying all the right things at the moment (I know it’ll never last), then Titans running back Chris Johnson deserves even greater credit. He speaks of accepting that offensive coordinator Chris Palmer is a pass first guy (even sans Britt) and intimates at taking one for the team for the greater good. CJ1.047K still harbours dreams of being the first player to rush for 2,000 yards twice in a career, but there’s little to no chance of that with Palmer calling the plays. No, instead, he’ll look to quieten his detractors, but he’ll see significantly less playing time on Saturday than either Javon Ringer or Jamie Harper.

We all held our collective breath when news filtered through of Marshawn Lynch’s recent arrest for DUI. Lynch wasn’t afforded the same luxury upon being apprehended, but it never ceases to amaze me how one man’s troubles in the NFL can quickly fade from the public consciousness due to the slew of other idiot players doing exactly the same, or worse. I’m not ecstatic at Lynch’s transgression but, by the same token, don’t want to see him suspended. These are skewed principles that sicken me, if I’m honest with myself, and if blood is thicker than water, then fanatical support is thicker than a sound upbringing.

Lynch and Robert Turbin have me licking my chops at the prospect of a weary defense being pounded into submission all season long by the Seahawks and should this be a regular season game, Tennessee’s 24^th ranked rushing defense (from 2011) would hold no fear, particularly as they appear to have done positively nothing to shore things up.

Much like Tarvaris Jackson, wheeling out Leon Washington this Saturday serves little purpose and the buzz will be created when Turbin has the ball in his hands. Did I write earlier that these are exciting times for the Titans? I’d much rather be in our position, on both sides of the ball.

Being on here to advise which team is worthy of your hard earned, logic tells me to bet on the team being offered the points in Week 1 of the preseason, which makes Tennessee +3 points a very good thing. However, and I can barely believe I’m saying this, my heart is begging me to overrule...and I’m going to listen to it.

I blame it on being caught up in a tidal wave of patriotism here in London as Team GB thrills us on a daily basis, so I plan to make this my sole sentimental pick of the season.

Seahawks, it’s over to you. And so say all of us.

*Hasselbeck has been named the starting quarterback for Tennessee.

Chicago Bears represent tremendous early value

2012-06-10T15:24:00.002+01:00

I make Matt Millen right. Walter Cherepinsky will be mad. Not just mad. Really mad. Really, really mad. I’m well versed in recognising the special love that ol’ Walt reserves for Millen, but on this one, Matt’s right. Really right. Really, really right.
I refer to Willie McGinest’s Power Rankings on NFL Network, that I watched having returned home from work on Friday afternoon. Work...it’s been a beautifully truncated week here in London (well, the whole of the UK benefited, if I’m honest, but I don’t live in the whole of the UK; I reside in the future home of the Los Angeles Rams) in deference to the Jubilee celebrations and some of us have had trouble getting motivated all over again. I need to revert to making Jack a dull boy.

Power Rankings, something not easy to engage in, despite its simplicity. I dabbled in it last season and encountered headaches...it’s not quite as easy as A(rizona), B(uffalo), C(arolina) so I decided to stick to the handicapping of football games. The scope for debate afterwards is immeasurable and the thirst for proffering one’s polemic limitless. Which brings me back to McGinest and Millen...in a short while.

I’ve written previously of an attractive outright price for Super Bowl XLVII that caught my eye on bet365.com, a price that will (likely) remain until kickoff on September 9^th, irrespective of what transpires in New Jersey on the evening of the 5^th. Said attractive price is the Chicago Bears at 30/1.

Yes, they play in arguably the toughest division in football and in the stronger conference, but despite this, there won’t be many teams relishing the prospect of facing them this season. I want to say at any stage this season, but they had a successful grip on their own destiny last year until they lost both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte and with the injury Gods liable to strike at the most inopportune of moments, no team’s ever safe.

However, they’ve taken out safer insurance policies this offseason with the acquisitions of Jason Campbell and Michael Bush to back up Cutler and Forte respectively. The signing of Bush went somewhat unheralded, but it’s a shrewd piece of business, in my opinion. Perhaps the reason for Bush’s introduction to Chicago via the back door was due to the seismic headlines surrounding a new Marshall in town. Brandon and seismic headlines do good bedfellows make, but he’s been a paragon of virtue since riding in to the Windy City and I think the planets must need realigning because his behaviour thus far has been extraordinarily exemplary.

From the perspective of considering the Bears tremendous value this season, should you, like me, wish to invest a little of your hard earned on Chicago, we may have the Denver Broncos to thank for affording us a good run for our money. The shared experience enjoyed by Marshall and Cutler of playing together at Invesco Authority Sports Elway The Drive Field at Mile High Stadium has had the most positive of effects and who would have ever have guessed that the only man alive capable of calming Marshall down was one Jay Christopher Cutler.

It does remain to be seen how long Marshall keeps this up for, but with Cutler able to target the at-peace-with-himself receiver, Alshon Jeffery and Devin Hester and with Forte and/or Bush keeping defences more than a little honest, I see the Bears being very competitive and about the best value outright bet there is right now.

I do hear whispers of a shaky offensive line in Chicago (and Cutler just this weekend did more than speak at a whisper about those (not) protecting him) and yes, it isn’t the strongest unit in the league, but consider this: it’s the same bunch of guys as last year and Forte did OK, thank you very much, for the 12 games he was able to suit up for in 2011, rushing for 997 yards at an average of 4.9 YPA, the latter being a career high.

No NFL coaching staff are idiots (alright, I stand corrected on this) and those running the show in Chicago obviously have confidence in those making holes for Forte because they did absolutely nothing to alter or upgrade the line whatsoever, aside from bringing in Chilo Rachal, a guard from our very good friends from the red half of the Bay Area.

I think it’s about time I took us back to Willie McGinest and Matt Millen. I actually thought Willie was going to really indulge us and count down from 32, but, alas, he wouldn’t dare do that so offered up his top 10. I should have known better on NFL Network...they’re the Yoda of Top 10’s.

I knew the Seahawks wouldn’t be near the top 10, but here’s McGinest’s take: 10. Lions, 9. Steelers, 8. Saints, 7. Texans, 6. Eagles (good choice and rightfully this high), 5. Ravens, 4. 49ers, 3. Packers, 2. Patriots, 1. Giants.

Step forward, Millen...”don’t undersell the Chicago Bears.” I wasn’t expecting that and I don’t know if I should be pleased at Millen’s opinion or not! But, he’s right. Really right. Really, really, right. Additionally, I found some vindication in Vegas. However, before that, further good news.

Being able to receive 30/1 on Chicago at bet365.com had me, as it turns out, underselling the Bears myself as williamhill.com are actually offering a staggering 33/1. Now, I don’t know if it’s because British bookmakers/sportsbooks are ignorant to the NFL offseason, but a truer reflection of their odds can be found at sportsbook.com (via Vegas Insider), where they can be backed at only 18/1.

How is it that a team as talented as the Bears can be backed at almost double the odds as what’s on offer in Vegas? Regardless of the reason, I’m all over it and one simple truth is that they’re definitely going to begin the season 1-0 because they host the Colts in their season opener. Their schedule also includes the Rams and Jaguars in the first five weeks so I expect them to be 3-2 at the very least as they head into their bye week; the two losses could come in Green Bay and Dallas, but that’s worst case scenario.

Not that it’s necessarily eye catching, but here’s something that, er...caught my eye. Sportsbook.com are offering a line on the Super Bowl, with the NFC currently favoured by 2.5 points. Now, for example, should anybody favour the Patriots to bounce back and take all before them, then take the AFC + 2.5 points early because, should they rip it up early in the season (and they could easily begin 7-1), that line will decrease to + 0.5 by midseason and we may even see the AFC favoured by 0.5.

With very little, if any, odds/line movement around at the moment, finding little gems like that will keep me ticking over until September 5^th.

Seattle Seahawks to finish 9-7 in 2012

2012-06-10T15:19:00.001+01:00

When news broke that Matt Flynn was going to sign for either the Seahawks or the Dolphins, I remember being curious as to how the choice may have been viewed in Vegas. At first blush, it looked as though Flynn had no choice to make at all as Joe Philbin, Flynn’s former offensive coordinator in Green Bay, had just been anointed the Big Fish in Miami. Unfortunately, for such a glamorous franchise, it is an ever decreasing pond at Sun Life Stadium, but Flynn would’ve been instantly familiar with the playbook and it was difficult not to imagine him being placed atop the depth chart before the ink on his contract had dried.

I would be staggered if even one sportsbook was ever brave enough to publicise a line on the choice a free agent had to make, but to play around with the odds for a second, we would have been looking at Flynn choosing Miami at around 4/11 with Seattle 2/1. Or in spread betting parlance, if the Flynn Bowl was played on a neutral field, the line would’ve opened with the Seahawks as 5.5 point underdogs.

Flynn sided with the ‘Dog and teased us with, "I felt it's a program that's really on the rise, doing the right thing, is being led by the right type of people.”

Should Flynn’s prognostication flirt with good health and momentum, we could see moments in 2012 to rival events of January 8, 2011. Optimism is rife and everyone’s bought into Pete Carroll and John Schneider’s philosophy (haven’t we?!).

Criticism of our Draft class left a sour taste in the mouth, yet what’s not to like about it? Yes, we view our own rookie choices through Wolf Grey tinted spectacles and the most talked about selections of Irvin and Wilson aside, initial reports of Bobby Wagner, Robert Turbin and Jaye Howard leave us like kids on Christmas Eve. And Jeremy Lane clearly ain’t no shrinking violet!

So, are the oddsmakers in Vegas joining us in sensing a challenge to San Francisco (at the very least) this year? Not on your Nelly and in the view of two sportsbooks we’re not even poised for a .500 season. Now, despite all the good news and goodwill (barring the fracas/handbags at ten paces) emanating from OTAs, I will admit here that I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised should the Seahawks disappoint us with an 8-8 showing.

It’s not what I expect, it simply derives from following this beguiling franchise for 28 years. Plus, I always prefer the insurance blanket of having a half empty glass.

Lines are available on season win totals for every team in the NFL and the aforementioned sportsbooks playing down our chances are Cantor Gaming and BetOnline. Each book has the Seahawks win total pegged at 7 and, despite the schedule’s latent brutality, I wouldn’t discourage anybody from buying at 7, thus betting on the ‘over’. My own opinion is that we’ll finish 9-7 (go on, get in line to vent, fellas) and here’s my reasoning(s).

Let’s begin with our delightful neighbours. I have us sweeping Arizona and St. Louis and splitting the series with San Fran...need I mention that we’ll win at home and they’ll prevail at The ‘Stick? OK, just have.

I don’t fear the Cowboys at home (I don’t like their WR depth at all), nor the Jets, and certainly not the Vikings. That’s already eight victories so what of the rest of the schedule? I have us succumbing to the Packers and Patriots at home, although I fear Green Bay less than New England.

That leaves five road games, but four defeats in my opinion. I think the Seahawks will struggle in Carolina, Detroit, Chicago and Buffalo, but leave Miami with the W. However, the games against the Panthers and Bills throw up a couple of wonderful intangibles, both of which are simple concepts with possibly huge implications come game time. Let’s start with Buffalo, or, more pertinently, Toronto and the home of the Rogers Centre.

Therein lies the issue for those of a Bills persuasion: you technically have a home game, but it’s in unfamiliar surroundings, or at best semi familiar, giving the visiting team more of a chance...supposedly. I won’t begin to compare it to a franchise being the ‘home’ team at Wembley Stadium because I view that as neutral territory and the spread should be adjusted accordingly.

Last year, for example, when Tampa Bay ‘hosted’ Chicago, it did make a mockery of home designation because I can tell you right now that there’s a bunch more Bears fans here in London than there are Buccaneers...and that showed in the crowd. It probably escaped the notice of the NFL, and I mean that sincerely, but us Brits were fed weekly diets of Walter Payton, Jim McMahon and Mike Singletary during the Bears’ heyday, thus making them a team easy to become enamoured with and a lot of that support hasn’t wavered.

My obvious point being that, while I do tip the Bills to beat us (at this ridiculously early stage), I love the fact that we’re travelling to Canada for it. In addition, of the four regular season games Buffalo have played there, their sole victory came last year, 23-0 over the Redskins.

Carolina...quite simply, nobody knows whether Cam Newton will suffer a sophomore slump. Now, he shouldn’t, he really shouldn’t...but he just might and it was he alone who made the Panthers competitive and respectable last year, not to mention feared. As I say, he shouldn’t, but it’ll be difficult to replicate what he achieved last season, which makes betting on Carolina one of the riskiest propositions there is before a single ball’s been thrown.

So, let’s say we do win in Toronto and catch Newton in Week 5 with his head in a spin. Do I see an 11-5 record, four better than we’re currently being offered in Vegas?

As an exercise in what ifs and buts, let’s take those two wins and say we’ll get swept by the 49ers and lose in Arizona. That takes us back to 9-7, my initial prediction for this season. Heck, we might end up beating the Pack, but lose to the London Rams. Whichever way you want to look at it, I don’t see past 9-7. Is that a good season? Considering the schedule, I wouldn’t say it’s a terrible record.

Many of you will undoubtedly disagree and I welcome that, but I can’t stress enough that I would love to be proved wrong on this and see a profit having bought the over on our win total at 7 as we head into the playoffs with double digits under the column marked W.

The intangible, the beautiful leveller

2012-06-10T15:10:00.003+01:00

Following my recent posting of the spread/line available for each Seahawks game (barring Week 17) of the forthcoming 2012 season, it’s easy to see why, based on Seattle being the underdog for ten games of the sixteen with Cantor Gaming, a 6-10 season is all there is to look forward to in the Pacific Northwest this year; the only real gimme on the schedule is, in my opinion, the visit of Minnesota.
That isn’t the full story though and when analysing the spread, I sometimes write about the being that nobody can account for, the beautiful leveller, and that’s the intangible. Players get injured early in games, receivers drop balls, running backs fumble, kickoffs and punts are returned for TDs (stats that are largely ignored by prognosticators), teams may struggle for motivation against a sub .500 team the week before a big game against a division rival, Mike Smith goes for it on 4^th and 1 in his own half against Drew Brees and co. in overtime.
Rarely does the course of a true wager run smoothly and it’s the intangibles that can often drive you to despair as much as they’ll put you on cloud nine…but it’s usually the former!

My point here is that sometimes, as we’re all more than fully aware, shock results do happen and, while us handicappers obviously have opinions on games, the spread is formulated on cold, hard facts, facts that can suddenly be lost in the ebb and flow of a game.

In addition to sometimes addressing possible intangibles, I always include my own line at the beginning of my analysis as it’s paramount that the reader understands my angle because in some cases my view of a spread can differ remarkably from what’s on offer in Vegas. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the aforementioned Minnesota matchup in Week 9.

Cantor Gaming have opened the line with the Vikings + 5.5. They believe that, right now, the Seahawks aren’t even two field goals better than Minnesota…at CenturyLink Field. I believe that to be ludicrous. Yes, they instantly upgraded themselves in the Draft, at both left tackle and free safety with Matt Kalil and Harrison Smith, but the Seahawks are still at least a touchdown better than the Vikings at home. My line opens with Minnesota + 9.5 as I believe Seattle to be a touchdown and a field goal the better team.

Mine is just one opinion though and I daresay those of a Purple People Eater persuasion would argue otherwise, but the black and white facts are that the Seahawks are a team on the rise while the Vikings remain firmly on the lower rungs of rebuilding. Now, Minnesota may well enjoy a positive start to the season and your correspondent may well end up with egg on his face (old habits die hard), but that’s still to be determined; at this very moment, should Seattle be entertaining Minnesota this Sunday, I’d be biting the hand of the Vegas sportsbooks off, asking the Seahawks to win by just two field goals to cover the spread.

Going back to intangibles and players going down, two significant injuries were recently reported, injuries that could have an early impact on their respective teams, one of them especially so. I refer to Da’Quan Bowers in Tampa and Terrell Suggs in Baltimore. Bowers, it would appear, can already wave goodbye to 2012 while, intriguingly, Suggs is talking positively about being available for at least part of the season.

Bowers is significant, but I believe not nearly as much as Suggs so I’m going to focus on the Ravens. Call it fortune, but Baltimore’s drafting of Courtney Upshaw allows them to plug him straight in to Suggs’s WLB position. Yes, call it fortune, but Ozzie Newsome is arguably the greatest talent evaluator of his generation so if fortune favours the brave, or the downright darned-good-at-their-jobs, then Newsome deserved to see Upshaw fall into his lap.

Without brushing off the injury, Baltimore are able to integrate Upshaw immediately as the starter and that’ll be the case in September, barring a calamitous offseason, so the injury to Suggs this early will have absolutely no impact at the moment on any spread involving the Ravens. They open the season at home to the Bengals and I wholeheartedly agree with the opening line of Cincinnati + 7 (well, I go + 7.5). However, if Suggs were to have been injured in, say, Week 10, it may have caused handicappers to shave a half point or a point off of their line the following week, what with a rookie, albeit a highly touted one, having to replace the 2011 Defensive Player of the Year.

The half point is crucial in many cases and that’s why I love this form of betting above anything else. You may notice, as the season wears on, that my line will always include the half point, whereas Vegas sportsbooks will sometimes offer a team with a flat 2 or 5 or 7 or 10 point handicap. I always analyse games to include the half point as I like to take the tie out of the equation when gauging how well (or badly) I’ve done in any given week. However, if there’s no half point to be had in any book on a particular game, I will advise as dictated to by Vegas. For example, Seattle -6, whereas my own personal line may be -5.5 or -6.5.

I’ll finish up here with what I consider to be a gem of a price to win Super Bowl XLVII. Betting is all about grabbing the best value you can and while there are more than a couple of teams with attractive odds to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February, I particularly like the Bears at 30-1 with bet365. That seems high, but I also couldn’t sign off either without the same company’s odds on the Seahawks outright…50-1 to those of you that still believe that defense wins championships.

Me? My formative NFL following years began with the ’85 Bears and Buddy Ryan’s 46 Defense so of course I’m still a believer.

Early Sportsbook view of the 2012 Seattle Seahawks

2012-05-13T17:52:00.000+01:00

How long until the football season begins? A little under three months or a little under four months? It’s almost impossible to answer as there are those who believe that all football is competitive*, beginning with the annual curtain raiser, the Hall of Fame Game, which this year happens to fall on August 5. Exactly one month later, with the appetite well and truly whetted, the small matter of the 2012 NFL regular season kicks off, when Dallas visits New York to take on the world champion Giants.

So, which way do you fall? Are you a preseason guy or does that pass you by simply because there’s no fantasy value to be had? The truth is, is that it’s difficult not to place a high enough emphasis on the preseason, if only for the fact that hundreds of players are fighting for a prized roster spot and thus the chance to compete for the Lombardi trophy. Yes, lofty expectations when a third stringer is hanging in there by the skin of his teeth, but it’s the mere thought of having the chance to touch that trophy that spurs such players on. That, and by the very nature of playing a role on a team, of being part of a special collective, something that nobody can take away; truly a dream fulfilled.

On a more personal level, other reasons present themselves, from the guy from your college team you desperately want to see make it or the undrafted free agent sleeper that you told just about everybody was the diamond in the rough who’d one day prove thirty one teams wrong.

Why the meandering to this point? To place myself firmly in the preseason camp...the football season is a little under three months away, which means it’s never too early for me to mull over what the Sportsbooks are looking like in Vegas and, thanks to Cantor Gaming, I have the opportunity to pore over every Seahawks spread, discounting Week 17, which, for reasons of competitive balance, haven’t been posted.

This is quite fascinating as these spreads are going to change, and in some cases very stupidly and very dramatically, so let’s see what the future holds right now in one corner of Vegas.

*The Pro Bowl most definitely isn’t competitive.

WEEK 1 at Arizona Cardinals

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 2

Rob’s Line: Seahawks + 1.5

WEEK 2 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Vegas Line: Cowboys + 1.5

Rob’s Line: Cowboys + 2.5

WEEK 3 vs. Green Bay Packers

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 6

Rob’s Line: Seahawks + 5.5

WEEK 4 at St. Louis Rams

Vegas Line: Rams + 1

Rob’s Line: Rams + 2.5

WEEK 5 at Carolina Panthers

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 3.5

Rob’s Line: Seahawks + 3.5

WEEK 6 vs. New England Patriots

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 6

Rob’s Line: Seahawks + 6.5

WEEK 7 at San Francisco 49ers

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 7

Rob’s Line: Seahawks + 6.5

WEEK 8 at Detroit Lions

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 6.5

Rob’s Line: Seahawks + 6.5

WEEK 9 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Vegas Line: Vikings + 5.5

Rob’s Line: Vikings + 9.5

WEEK 10 vs. New York Jets

Vegas Line: Jets + 1.5

Rob’s Line: Jets + 4.5

WEEK 11 BYE WEEK

WEEK 12 at Miami Dolphins

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 3

Rob’s Line: Dolphins + 2.5

WEEK 13 at Chicago Bears

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 5.5

Rob’s Line: Seahawks + 6.5

WEEK 14 vs. Arizona Cardinals

Vegas Line: Cardinals + 4

Rob’s Line: Cardinals + 5.5

WEEK 15 at Buffalo Bills

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 3.5

Rob’s Line: Seahawks + 4.5

WEEK 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers

Vegas Line: Seahawks + 2.5

Rob’s Line: 49ers + 0.5

WEEK 17 vs. St. Louis Rams

Vegas Line: NO LINE POSTED

Rob’s Line: Rams + 7.5

There are a couple of discrepancies, but that’s always to be expected. However, the Seahawks receiving a field goal start in Miami???

Let Bruce loose

2012-05-01T22:14:00.005+01:00

I read that immediately after Seattle had made West Virginia’s Bruce Irvin the 15^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Mel Kiper, on ESPN, called the pick “mind boggling.” And didn’t he sound oh so smart at that moment?! Thankfully, I didn’t actually watch it. Admittedly, it’s not as though I had a choice as I didn’t actually have access to ESPN’s Draft coverage, but not having that choice only ruled out the inevitable of not tuning in anyway.

I only have access to NFL Network, but don’t read that in the sorry way that it may look. Thank Heavens for NFL Network and not just because it drives me away from Kiper and his inane chatter. No, the network boasts the anti-Kiper in Mike Mayock. Now, Mayock does have his moments, but on almost every occasion he’s measured and articulate, attributes that should (but won’t, sadly) keep Kiper awake at night. And every Seahawks fan should have a not-so-secret admiration for Mayock anyway after his unforgettable “GET OFF ME!!!” and “...ARE YOU KIDDING ME???” after Marshawn Lynch’s 67 yard TD run versus New Orleans on a barmy Wildcard night at Qwest Field in January 2011.

Long has my disdain for Kiper been hard to shake. Shame on all of those that hang on to his every word and I’m in no doubt he was patting himself heartily on the back at his “mind boggling” quip aimed squarely at coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider. Well, he would’ve patted himself on the back if he’d been able to get his arm over that preposterous hair of his.

If there is something laughable about Kiper’s dig (and the humour in it is difficult to track down), it’s that more than a few misguided souls actually believe he has more insight into the Seahawks than Carroll and Schneider. I have nothing but pure faith in the Irvin pick and the only person I’ve heard speak positively about it is Charles Davis, Mayock’s partner in Draft crime. He stated the stupidly obvious, but it’s a point that seems to need a sledgehammer nonetheless; Carroll and Schneider are clearly working to a plan and if they see Irvin as an integral cog, then give them OTAs and training camp and at least one season of unleashing their first round pick on the NFL. Heck, the two of them have established an enviable working relationship and yet it’s something that most of those that follow the NFL appear blind to, even seasoned journalists. Davis, I tip my hat to you.

Most Mock Drafts had the ‘Hawks filling their pass rushing need in the first round and when this worst kept secret kept the company of conventional wisdom, we could look forward to Coples, Ingram or Jones donning Nike’s newest and finest. Should he have been available, my personal choice was Kuechly, but what do I know?

Conventional wisdom does not always a good Draft make and we already have an immovable object in Red Bryant at defensive end so was Irvin truly that shocking a pick? Well, yes, but only in as much as the red flags he’d generated for himself off the field. I could give you stat upon stat or misdemeanour after misdemeanour here, but that’d be wasting all of our time. My Kuechly leanings aside, Irvin is a pure pass rusher and little else. We don’t need him defending the run, we want him to get to the quarterback...and fast. And Irvin has a knack for getting to the quarterback...and fast.

Carroll wasn’t coy (naturally) when speaking about Irvin following the conclusion of the first round and of all the quotes, one stood out to me and it’s this: “This is the kind of guy that really puts the fear in the offensive tackles.” Now, how good does that make you feel as a Seahawk?

All of a sudden, defensive coordinators (I’ll spare you the thirteen names for this season) are going to be considering the havoc one man will have the ability to wreak and third down at CenturyLink will be the place to be in 2012.

Without going through the entire Seahawks 2012 Draft class, the one other pick that’s truly enamoured me is running back Robert Turbin in the fourth round. Smashmouth football on offense and the relentless motors of Irvin, Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner on defense. The anticipation is palpable and, without wishing precious time away, September really can’t come quickly enough.

Thank you, NFL, but you're not entirely forgiven

2012-04-22T10:47:00.003+01:00

Maybe the NFL felt it was about time. Bill Leavy (and his entire officiating crew, if we’re to cut him the merest slack), had, after all, gifted the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl XL on the most painful of occasions in Detroit on Sunday, February 5, 2006. Yes, this game still rankles with Seahawks fans. It always will, even if we do eventually collect a Lombardi trophy of our own, because we’ll know that we should have two of them. Heck, look at me writing about the Seahawks with two Lombardi’s...we don’t have any yet. I’m getting a little ahead of myself, but that’s what happens in the week leading up to the Draft. We suddenly start envisioning things for our team, including altering the course of historical sporting events, clearly. I like to think that all of this is what makes us Seahawk fans what we are. The hope, the exotic wonderment to be found in desperation when everything comes crashing down around us. Oh, come on, we know we can’t get enough!

So, did anybody else notice that the NFL released the 2012 schedule this week? Nah, me neither and I only found out when I saw a dog chewing a newspaper in the park and wandered over to see what the headline was. It’s funny how these events can go so under the radar with all this technology (and newspapers, God bless ‘em) at our fingertips.

So, yes, maybe the NFL felt it was about time. Time to return the smallest of favours. The pact with the devil signed before Super Bowl XL, just so that Jerome Bettis could walk away with a ring in his final game, saw us receive something back this week. Now, I'm not saying that it's the first time we've seen this since 2006, but it was a little nugget nonetheless, something no other team received.

Before I elaborate, what we do have for 2012 is a quite brutal schedule. This, of course, is not the work of the NFL...OK, it is, but it's not cloaked in Machiavellian deceit. We all know who we play in each corresponding season, we just don't know when so what is it about this need to know? I haven't got to spell it out...we just do.

I'm not going to be the first person to have spotted this, but I can't ever recall the Seahawks being gifted home games against each of their three division rivals over the final four games of the regular season.

When I wrote earlier that no other team had received this, what I also wanted to say was that no other team comes close to this, but that’s not strictly true. The Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers host two division rivals over their final four games of the regular season, but no team hosts all three over the same span. And, if we're honest, we may need those games as, aside from the NFC West teams, road games in Carolina, Detroit, Chicago and Buffalo (yes, you read that right) won't make us the envy of the league. Thrown in Hollywood home games against Dallas, Green Bay, New England and the NY Jets and you'll know we've been in a season come December 30.

About the only non-NFC West matchup that you could say looks anything close to resembling a gimme is the home game with Minnesota in Week 9. Yes, the Jets may well implode, particularly if the locker room becomes divided between Sanchez and Tebow, but, right now, that's no guarantee so let's look at it as one hell of a bruising encounter. Before anybody horse collar tackles me on this, yes, I know that NO team will relish coming to CenturyLink Field. However, the harsh reality is, is that this will be the season when we'll truly be able to judge the young talent on our roster. And, of course, we have the Niners to consider, too.

Us Seahawks are expecting Seattle to challenge San Francisco from day one, no matter how good the depth chart may look in the red half of the Bay Area and, unfortunately, we have to face it, it is looking pretty formidable...or both pretty and formidable, perhaps.

I'm not here to smash our dreams before our collective heads have even hit the pillow, I'm merely being pragmatic.

In the meantime, for the small reward you've presented us over the final four weeks of the regular season, thank you, NFL, but you're not entirely forgiven.