Many people in Rochester can’t imagine politics here without Louise’s presence, and there here will be many obituaries written about her to celebrate an interesting life well-led.

One thing that most of her tributes probably won’t mention is that she was the opposite  of a greedy politician. She raised very little money in her campaigns. She didn’t have a PAC, and a review of her spending reports showed that she didn’t use her money to influence other candidates. Her main concern was representing her constituents, both in Congress and in field offices. In today’s political environment, that’s worth noting.

Still, that result is way too tight, and an election night mis-count coupled with a few extra Assini absentee ballots could put him over the top.

How did this happen? Simple: Democrats just don’t turn out in off-year elections, especially if there’s nothing going on. In 2012, there were 323K votes cast in NY-25. Last night, 191K people voted. That’s a 37% decline in turnout. If you think this is about Rich Funke, let me point out that 89K voted in last night’s State Senate race. In the race O’Brien won in 2012, 137K voted. That’s a 34% decline in turnout.

This isn’t about Slaughter’s campaign (minimal), Assini’s campaign (also minimal), a “wave” or anything else. It’s about Democrats not going to the voting booth unless there’s a Presidential candidate on the ticket.

Over the past 8 years that I’ve been writing on Congressional elections, I see the same pattern in local media. During the Spring and Summer, the candidates suck up all the free media they can by appearing before editorial boards and on radio shows where they are asked about their theoretical views on “policy”, a discussion that is completely removed from the realities of how they would act in today’s dysfunctional Congress. Then, the candidates retreat to a fortress of solitude to prepare for the couple of debates that will occur during the late Summer and Fall, where the only pointed questions that are asked come from one candidate to the other. Finally, we have a month of toxic TV and radio spots that are full of misinformation and bile.

The TV spots are always with us. Debates in a district like this one are going to be limited because the incumbent will always want to avoid the possibility of screwing up. So what’s left is Spring and Summer, and during that time I’d like to see at least one media opportunity where the candidates are asked tough questions relevant to how they’d vote next year, not about what they want in some perfect world. A good way to do this would be to take a dozen tough votes in Congress and ask the candidate how they would have voted. The obvious question for Assini, using that technique, is whether he would have voted to repeal Obamacare. All you need to know about this particular forum’s ability to suss out Assini’s real intent in running for Congress is that Dawson did not ask that question. Read on if you want to learn about the rest.

Dawson started with a question about the Isla Vista killings, referencing the remarks of Richard Martinez, the father of one of the victims, who blamed the NRA for the death of his son. Assini tried to deflect this by calling for better treatment of mental illness, which is rich, since he generally opposes Obamacare, which will overall increase coverage of care for mental illness. Dawson did get Assini to say that background checks were a good thing. I’d like to see the small print on that one.

Assini pegs his hopes of winning on the difference between midterm and Presidential year turnout, and it was clear from his interview that he wants to use the economy as a key issue in the race. Rochester, he pointed out, is the 5th poorest city in the US. So what does he want to do? Cut corporate taxes and do something about the Chinese trade deficit.

Assini began with the assertion that our corporate tax rate is #1 in the world, which elides the fact that our effective rate is about 1/3 of the published rate and the 11th lowest in a ranking of 27 wealth nations. Dawson followed up with that, and Assini claimed that we “just don’t fare well”. On China, Assini called for tariffs.

Then came the callers. First, one who advocated single-payer healthcare. Assini says he “has no issue looking at” a single-payer system, but he doesn’t want one. Dawson asked him about Obamacare, and he said he liked all the parts everyone likes (such as no pre-existing conditions, and keeping kids on your policy). He doesn’t like the changes to Medicare Advantage, which helped pay for the Affordable Care Act (which is what Assini called it now that “Obamacare” is a popular term). Assini smeared together Medicare and Medicare Advantage, even though only Advantage was cut, and that program was a version of Medicare where extra benefits were paid due to subsidies to insurance companies (as Dawson pointed out via reading a Slaughter press release). Assini did his best with that by pointing out that he supported Chuck Schumer’s position that Advantage cuts should be delayed in 2015.

One of the callers asked about medical costs. Assini said he proposed expansion of exchanges to cross state lines, and he proposed covering the medical needs that were not covered by one of the callers’ policies. How would he pay for that as part of a caucus whose sole achievement on healthcare was to vote for the repeal of Obamacare a couple of dozen times? That obvious question, as I pointed out above, wasn’t asked.

Assini did his best to distance himself from Republicans in Congress by saying he would have voted for an extension of unemployment benefits, and by saying he wouldn’t be focused as closely on Benghazi as House Republicans. He’s against Federal control of education, but wouldn’t abolish the Department of Education (which is a “moderate” stance for Republicans in Congress).

Assini didn’t say anything stupid, and he did his best to sound reasonable. Someone listening to him for the first time might think that he’s a conservative Democrat, and the way this game is structured, nothing happened that would make one think otherwise.

Assini, a member of the Genesee Transportation Council, the agency that helps determine how to locally spend federal transportation funds, said his intent is not to scare people about the condition of our bridges, but to start a conversation about getting more federal money for roadwork.

“In years past, the feds made additional money available for bridges, but most of that funding has dried up,” he said.

I wonder how that money mysteriously dried up? It couldn’t have been global warming, because Assini doesn’t believe in that. Could that mysterious money drying event be caused by Republicans not supporting more highway funds? Let me pull out the Google machine and check:

House GOP Unveils Bill Slashing Highway Grants; Senate Republicans Block Advancement of Transportation Bill; House Republicans Fail to Pass Transportation Extension.

Do I need to go any further to show the kind of hypocrite one needs to be to whine about the lack of federal funds while at the same time running to join the obstructionists who have repeatedly and proudly blocked this funding?

It was recently brought to my attention that McMahon LaRue Associates submitted a Letter of Map Revision (LOMR) on behalf of the Town of Gates to FEMA. I understand that after FEMA began the review process that they required additional, up to date information about the Town of Gates’ floodplain management efforts.  FEMA sent McMahon LaRue Associates and the Town a letter in July 2013 explaining that in order for LOMR to move forward, the Town and Town’s flood administrator needed to provide info more information to FEMA within 90-days to support the map revision.  After no response to FEMA within the 90-day timeframe, FEMA was forced to close the LOMR case for the Town due to lack of response.

Expect this to come up in the Assini/Slaughter debate later this year. The whole press release is included after the break:

WASHINGTON – Rep. Slaughter is working with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Town of Gates to resolve FEMA’s Flood Insurance Rate Maps that have caused many homeowners to receive notice of flood insurance rate increase notices. Several of these homeowners have contacted Congresswoman Slaughter’s office for assistance, believing that their properties are wrongly placed in a flood zone.

 

On Friday, Rep. Slaughter sent letters to FEMA Administrator William Fugate and Gates Town Supervisor Mark Assini asking both parties to take additional steps to fix the redrawn flood maps. Specifically, Slaughter encouraged the Town of Gates to revise their Letter of Map Revision (LOMR), a revision of a specific Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM), and provide FEMA with additional information. LOMRs are FEMA’s map revision modification system to revise a specific FIRM which can encompass multiple properties within a community. Slaughter encouraged FEMA to work with the Town on new flood maps to protect homeowners from rate hikes.

 

Slaughter will host FEMA in Monroe County later this year for two separate Technical Assistance Workshops for community officials. The first workshop will cover all aspects of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The second workshop will be specific to the Community Rating System, a voluntary program under NFIP which encourages communities to meet standards in an effort to reduce policy holder’s rates by up to 25%.

 

Last month, Rep. Slaughter supported a bipartisan fix to limit rate increases and allow communities to challenge FEMA’s new flood maps. Rep. Slaughter has also supported upgrades to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

 

Read both letters below:

LETTER TO FEMA

 

Dear Administrator Fugate,

 

Let me begin by thanking the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for their willingness to come to Monroe County and have a Technical Assistance Workshop on the National Flood Insurance Program and subsequent workshop of the Community Rating System. I look forward to hosting these events with FEMA.

 

I write to urge FEMA to swiftly review the Flood Insurance Rates Maps (FIRM) of the Town of Gates and surrounding areas. Several of my constituents have contacted me with their growing concerns about issues with how the LiDAR mapping was processed when updating the FIRM.

 

As a strong supporter and original cosponsor of the newly-enacted Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act I strongly believe in helping American families who are currently struggling to afford flood insurance. The Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act updates the National Flood Insurance Program to bring some much-needed accountability to FEMA’s flood map-drawing process to protect homeowners throughout the country. In addition, the law institutes caps on flood insurance premium increases and provides refunds for families who have already been hit with unaffordable insurance rates. I look forward to the implementation of this law.

 

It is my hope that FEMA will work with my office and the Town of Gates to ensure that all mapping models and data are appropriate and accurate. I look forward to working with you on this matter. Please don’t hesitate to contact me or my staff.

 

Sincerely.

Rep. Louise Slaughter

 

LETTER TO THE TOWN OF GATES

Dear Supervisor Assini,

Over the past several weeks, I have heard from many of our constituents in the Town of Gates who have concerns about the flood insurance premiums and possible inaccurate flood mapping. Therefore, I have since contacted the Federal Emergency Management Agency to seek their attention to this matter.

It was recently brought to my attention that McMahon LaRue Associates submitted a Letter of Map Revision (LOMR) on behalf of the Town of Gates to FEMA. I understand that after FEMA began the review process that they required additional, up to date information about the Town of Gates’ floodplain management efforts.  FEMA sent McMahon LaRue Associates and the Town a letter in July 2013 explaining that in order for LOMR to move forward, the Town and Town’s flood administrator needed to provide info more information to FEMA within 90-days to support the map revision.  After no response to FEMA within the 90-day timeframe, FEMA was forced to close the LOMR case for the Town due to lack of response.

In Congress I have recently voted for upgrades the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).  As a strong supporter and original cosponsor of the newly-enacted Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act I strongly believe in helping American families who are currently struggling to afford flood insurance. The Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act updates the NFIP to bring some much-needed accountability to FEMA’s flood map-drawing process to protect homeowners throughout the country. In addition, the law institutes caps on flood insurance premium increases and provides refunds for families who have already been hit with unaffordable insurance rates. I look forward to the implementation of this law.

As you know, the LOMR can officially revise the Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) which could help many constituents. As a voluntary member of the NFIP, the Town of Gates should maintain records of the information requested by FEMA in order for the LOMR process to move forward with FEMA.

Also, as I am sure you are aware, as a member of the NFIP, the Town can reduce individual flood insurance policy holder’s rates up to 25% by joining the Community Rating System (CRS) and meeting the minimum standards of NFIP. At my request FEMA has agreed to come to our community for a Technical Assistance Workshop on NFIP and CRS. Details are forthcoming on these events. I will keep you updated on these important opportunities.

It is my hope that the Town will pursue the LOMR process once again. I look forward to assisting you and our shared constituency to effectively communicate with FEMA. Should you need to contact me, please feel free to contact my [Rochester District Office] at 585.232.4850.

Sincerely,

Rep. Louise Slaughter

 

After a disastrous start in 2014, even someone with the deadened political instincts of Ms. Warren wouldn’t take a shot at Louise Slaughter this cycle, no matter what some gullible reporter at Channel 10 thinks. And if she did run for the seat in any other cycle, she might win the primary, but she’d lose to any Republican with a pulse and regular respiration.

That said, let me pick an important nit: the fact that Lovely raised $400K, as was reported breathlessly by Channel 10, is irrelevant to any present or future run for the House. As every reporter in Rochester should have learned from studying the Brooks campaign, you can’t transfer funds from your local campaign treasury to your House race. So Lovely can raise a million dollars for her next mayoral run (and Lord knows she’ll need it), but that won’t do her any good if she ever decides to run for Congress.

Louise Slaughter has her seat in Congress until she or God decide it is time to move on. That was proven last go-round in a full-on assault by County Executive Maggie Brooks. It was one popular local leader against another and when they counted the votes it was a blowout.

And if Maggie Brooks can’t beat Louise Slaughter, neither can Mark Assini.

According to Bob, Assini says he has a “mathematical path” to victory that he hopes to follow. Assini thinks that path starts with the repeal of Obamacare and opposition to the SAFE Act (which, memo to Assini, is a piece of state, not federal legislation). If so, the “mathematical path” Assini is following begins with 1+1=3.

A disturbing movement exists to indoctrinate students to politically correct thinking. This movement resembles the Hitler Youth activities in pre World War IIGermany. The Hitler Youth were taught, trained and recruited to be future members of the Nazi Party. The Hitler Youth were viewed as future Aryan supermen and were indoctrinated into believing in ant-Semitism.

[…]

If you are a parent and don’t buy into the theory of Global Warming – well tough beans! Global Warming is being taught as fact by those that believe man is the main factor in climate change. Guilt is being pushed on students in the classroom for the “incorrect” choices of America. Students are being told how evil we are and how wrong America is on the issue of Global Warming.

Another recent example involves the fierce battle that has waged to eliminate Intelligent Design from being taught in the class room as a balance to the Theory of Evolution.

Assini wrote this when he was blogging at Bob Lonsberry’s “Writers on the Loose” site. He no longer blogs there, but, as with all things on the Internet, it’s archived for all to see. This is via a Huffington Post story on Assini’s run.

Dean announced his candidacy today, a day after Republican Gates Supervisor Mark Assini kicked off his campaign and sitting House Representative Louise Slaughter, a Democrat, indirectly confirmed she’s seeking re-election. County Board of Elections Commissioner Tom Ferrarese says Dean is registered with the Independence Party, though Dean says he’s running as an independent and is not affiliated with a party.

To get on the November ballot as an independent, without the designation of a party, Dean would have to collect the signatures of 3,500 registered voters who have not yet signed other candidate petitions.

If Dean is serious, this is worse news for Assini than a primary challenge, because if Dean makes it on the ballot on some line or other, he’ll inevitably take votes that would have otherwise been Assini’s.

That said, he has to be serious enough to get on the ballot. In 2010, there was another strict constitutionalist, Janice Volk, who attempted to challenge Tom Reed in the Republican primary in the old 29th district. Janice didn’t make it on the ballot because she couldn’t collect enough valid signatures after Reed’s attorneys were done giving her petitions the stink eye. It seems that would-be candidates who make a lot of noise about following the Constitution have a hard time understanding election law.

Judging from his website, I’m going to assume that Tim Dean is going to provide the more robust, highly caffeinated brew in the 25th primary. He wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and the second most important issue on his list is gun control. Spoiler alert: he’s against it. And there’s this:

Tim is an avid student of the United States Constitution and vows not only to govern constitutionally, but never to circumvent the law in the performance of his duties as a United States Congressman. According to Tim: “The constitution has been working just fine since its inception and there is absolutely no reason to think it’s an outdated or old document, for without the Constitution, our great country would not have been able to exist as the most free country on earth”.

Then we have Mark Assini, who announced this evening. In kinder, gentler times for the Republican Party, Mark would be considered a fairly strong potion. In 2004, he ran against Randy Kuhl in the 29th Congressional District, which at that time reached into the suburbs of Rochester. Mark lost the Republican primary, but remained on the Conservative line and receive a few percent of the vote. Looking in the wayback machine, we see that Mark’s issues at that time were lowering taxes, reforming Medicaid, and dealing with foreign trade by expanding a trade zone in Western New York, and by enforcing WTO treaties. That was a mere 10 years ago, long before the Tea Party had even begun to make the long, circuitous trip from Glenn Beck’s id to the ears of a tiny minority of Rochester area residents.

Unfortunately for Mr. Assini, who is now the Gates Town Supervisor, talking about taxes is weak Tea. If he’s going to win the hearts and minds, not to mention the guts, of the average Republican primary voter, he’s going to have to fall in line on the repeal of Obamacare, pound the table on Roe v Wade, demand that birth control be stripped from insurance plans, and take on all the other political baggage that weighs down every Republican hoping to hold office in a district that voted for Barack Obama. If Assini isn’t out picketing at Planned Parenthood by the week end, I fear for his chances in the primary.

Mark Assini is clearly the better candidate, especially if his years actually governing in Gates have moderated his views. The best thing that can happen to the Republicans at this point is for Tim Dean to fail to get the requisite number of signatures to place his name on the ballot. Absent that, and assuming that Dean mounts a real campaign, I’m afraid that Mr. Assini is going to emerge from his primary challenge as a completely unelectable right-wing Republican of the Paladino variety.

Perhaps Assini will surprise us all, but at this point, the only thing standing between Louise Slaughter and her inevitable re-election is a possible deterioration of her health.