The Rogues Gallery

Trillions And Trillions

Evan Bernstein — Sun, 09 Dec 2012 15:57:16 +0000

It is being reported by The Washington Post (among others) that President Barack Obama could order two platinum coins to be minted, each with a designated value of one trillion dollars. That’s $1,000,000,000,000.00 each. Or 10^12 dollars each, if you prefer.

These trillion dollar coins would have one purpose … to be deposited into the Federal Reserve as a payment against the debt of The United States of America, which is currently just over sixteen trillion dollars. By law, The USA can borrow up to a certain limit ($16.4 trillion.) This is known as “The Debt Ceiling”. This is no more complex than understanding how the credit limit on a credit card works – something almost all of us can relate to.

So by depositing the 2 coins, The USA will have paid $2 trillion of it’s debt, and will have no immediate need to worry about reaching its credit limit until late 2014. (As it stands today, The USA will reach its credit limit this coming February.)

According to Yale Law Professor Jack Balkin, there are no laws prohibiting The President from ordering the production of this type of currency (there are legal limitations on the production of other forms of currency.) Economist Joseph Gangon of The Peterson Institute sees nothing economically problematic with this suggested “solution” to America’s debt ceiling problem.

I have no problem admitting my ignorance on many of the nuances and specialty-areas of economics. However, with skepticism as my footing, and with my basic understanding of economics, I see a pretty significant problem.

As far as the USA’s debt is concerned, I see no difference between printing a trillion dollar coin and printing a trillion one-dollar bills. This is called inflation. It makes every dollar in circulation less valuable (the more abundant something is, the less it is worth.)

By contrast, others argue that there is no inflationary effect on this maneuver because the coins would never make it into general circulation. It is effectively a kind of barter trade between 2 government entities (The Fed and The Treasury), albeit an entirely unequal trade. (Would you satisfy two trillion of debt someone owes you in exchange for a pair of platinum coins?) Also, if this were a legitimate way to handle debt satisfaction, why stop at $2 trillion? Why not make one coin and assign it a worth $16 trillion?

The value of a dollar is based on ‘faith” (not the most favorite of words in skeptical circles.) But this is essentially the truth. If people have faith that a one-dollar bill is good for one-dollar worth of services, then it is so. But does this kind of maneuver, printing trillion dollar coins, instill more or less faith in the value of a dollar? So it doesn’t make it into circulation – does that make it any less real that there suddenly exists an additional $2 trillion? Do other countries, some of whom we take to task for ‘currency manipulation’ (cough … China … cough) feel they are getting better value when investing in our country’s treasury bills? Could The USA not be accused of its own form of manipulation?

Carl Sagan famously asked us all what the difference might be between an invisible, incorporeal, heat-less, floating dragon in a garage versus no dragon at all. The answer is … not a bit of difference. It forces me to ask what the difference might be between inventing two trillion dollars of currency to pay a debt versus not paying the debt at all. Is there any difference?

So what is the likelihood of this happening? From a political standpoint, it would be considered a very bad (and unpopular) move for The President to make. As such, it is unlikely to occur.

But the fact that Yale professors and professional economists can not see the intrinsic inflationary issues is somewhat astounding. So I am calling economic shenanigans on this idea, at least until I am shown alternate evidence so I can adjust my understanding.

Footnote: Platinum, in of itself, has value to it. You can trade one ounce of pure platinum for about $1,600. If The USA were to actually try and come up with two trillion dollars worth of platinum, that would equate to about 78 million pounds of platinum. Unrealistic, seeing as how all of the platinum mined to date equals a cube about 25 feet per side. (One cubic foot equals about 1330 pounds.) That’s, roughly, 21 million pounds of platinum mined and collected in all of human history.

Hollywood … Low-Hanging Fruit

Evan Bernstein — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 15:18:35 +0000

To a skeptic, Hollywood is like a candy store. The most cursory of internet searches will reveal that the culture of Hollywood is infused with paranormal beliefs. As part of my never-ending SGU show prep, each week I take a look towards “Tinseltown” to see which celebrity happens to be making a total ass out of themselves at that particular moment in time. Sure it is low-hanging fruit, but just because the tree blossoms a certain way doesn’t mean we shouldn’t partake of the juicy treats.

Two of the favorite flavors of paranormal out there are ghosts and psychics. ‘Celebrity Ghost Stories’ is a hit TV show, with no shortage of actors and celebrities coming forward to tell their story about how they were afraid of shadows and bumps-in-the-night when they were 9 years old.

Psychics and celebrities seem to almost go hand in hand. These people seem to have been designed for each other. I can’t help but wonder if psychics would be as popular in our culture if famous people did not embrace such nonsense. Seriously, would we know who James Van-Praagh, or John Edward, or Sylvia Brown are if it were not for the likes of famous personalities such as Ted Danson, or Larry King, or Oprah Winfrey?

Anyway, the winner of this past week’s “Hollywood Paranormal Dupe” award has to be given to Lindsay Lohan. Lindsay Lohan has made big headlines in the last few days. She punched a woman in the face at a bar, and a judge might rule that Lohan is in violation of her probation. (If you don’t already know, and you have a morbid curiosity, just look online for her history of bad behavior.)

But Wait! … the victim of Lohan’s wrath is none other than Tiffany Ava Mitchell. Have you ever heard of Tiffany Ava Mitchell?

Of course you haven’t. She’s one of these “psychic to the celebrities”, one of (seemingly) hundreds of psychics whom claim to be the psychic of some celebrity ( … just for once, I’d like to see a psychic profess that they are a psychic to some other class - “psychic to the barbers” or “psychic of the ballroom dancers”. That would be refreshing. But I digress…)

Here are some reported “facts” on this psychic no one has ever heard of until she was punched by Ms. Lohan:

- Mitchell owns a chain of psychic reading businesses in West Palm Beach, Fla., including “Ava’s Psychic Visions.”

- She specializes in readings through tarot cards, palms and psychic energy.

- It is reported that she tried to charge a client $43,000 to cleanse their aura (client called the cops and the cops said they couldn’t do anything about it.)

- She has retained famous “lawyer to the celebrities” Gloria Alred to represent her.

So that’s it … this obscure self-proclaimed “psychic” has been elevated to the front pages of both the tabloids and mainstream media for being the punching bag of a Hollywood actress with a rap sheet as long as her freckled arm. It does not matter what happens from here on out – Mitchell’s business and career is about to take off!

And as predicted by me (ha!) no one along the way is questioning the existence of psychic abilities. Can’t let science or reality get in the way of the culture of stupid, can we? For example, take this headline from The Huffington Post on the matter:

“Tiffany Ava Mitchell: Lindsay Lohan Alleged Victim is a Psychic, Offered Actress Free Reading Before Assault”

How about this instead, HuffPo editors …

Tiffany Ava Mitchell: Lindsay Lohan Victim is an Alleged Psychic, Offered Actress Free Alleged Reading Before Assault

MUCH better, in my humble opinion. My headline is entirely accurate.

How Now Brown

Evan Bernstein — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 05:03:08 +0000

The Brown Daily Herald (BDH) is the Brown University student newspaper based out of Providence, Rhode Island. According to its Wikipedia entry, it is the second-oldest student newspaper among American college dailies. Brown University is an Ivy League school, the 7th oldest university in the United States. It is considered one of the finest universities in the nation.

This past Sunday BHD posted an article titled “From ghosts to ghostbusters, paranormal interest thrives in R.I.”

As you will read from the article, they talk about the bustling paranormal culture that is thick in Rhode Island. That is to say the ratio of paranormal organizations and practitioners to the overall population is high. Much of the credit for Rhode Island’s bustling ghost hunting community is given to SYFY Channel’s “Ghost Hunters”, for they hail from Warwick. The Ghost Hunters led an investigation at Brown University not too long ago, to the apparent delight of many people who are impressed by such undertakings.

In the middle of the article, author Gabrielle Dee offers this statement:

Understanding the paranormal consists not only of the creepy, otherworldly creatures that haunt the insides of closets, decrepit attics and corn fields that spaceships mistake as landing pads — it’s a new vision of reality.

A NEW vision of reality? No. Paranormal and pseudoscientific beliefs are as old as recorded history. They are very much culturally based. They adapt and morph in almost perfect synchronicity with societies and cultures through the ages.

As far as “reality” is concerned, I suppose you could argue that people’s inherent belief in the unproven is the reality of the human condition. But reality as measured by science has filtered thousands of years of paranormal claims, with the collective sum of scientific evidence totaling Zero. None. Nada. Zilch.

The article goes on to mention another paranormal investigation group named RISEUP, a Rhode Island and Connecticut conglomerate (first I’ve ever heard of it, but no matter.) This particular group had these pearls of wisdom to offer:

It is important to keep in mind that paranormal sightings include an interpretive element, and depends on what the viewer perceives as real, he (the group’s founder) said. Religious and cultural interpretations, which give rise to what people may perceive as paranormal, must be balanced with today’s science and technology in a very logical manner, he added.

An interpretative element? The entire exercise of “ghost hunting” is interpretive. Ghost hunters whip out their recorders and thermometers and other devices with “ON” buttons and they think this is the epitome of scientific investigation. They take readings and they interpret readings based on their preconceived notions. If there is an “anomaly” of any kind, then that’s a ghost in their book. This is exactly why ghost hunting is pseudoscience. They have all the trappings of science, and they claim they are being scientific. By scientific standards, they the polar opposite of good scientific practices.

And the statement about religion and culture being “balanced with today’s science and technology in a very logical manner” … this is a very oddly phrased description. I agree that religion and culture is the driving force behind many people’s “paranormal” experiences, but why it “must be balanced” with today’s science and technology makes little sense to me. Apparently, I lack a “very logical manner” for not being able to understand exactly what is being said here.

So in summary: this article is horribly unimpressive on so many levels. It is poorly written. It has failed to adequately describe the activity of ghost hunting. It offered no skeptical perspective. It assumes ghosts are real. Their subjects offer no extraordinary evidence for the extraordinary claims being made.

But perhaps worst of all is the disappointment in that one of our nation’s most impressive institutes of higher learning is catering to people’s enthrallment with pseudoscience, and simultaneously, taking advantage of people’s lack of understanding about how science REALLY works. And this is courtesy of an Ivy League university with its roots dating back to colonial times. King George III must be rolling over in his grave.

WAIT … I thought of one thing worse than my disappointment … I wish I could say I am surprised.

Natural Disaster in Gambia

Evan Bernstein — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 11:00:08 +0000

A natural disaster is being reported today by Reuters out of Gambia.

The President of Gambia, Yahya Jammeh, is putting his citizens in extreme risk by telling people that his slurry of “natural” herbs can cure people infected with HIV and/or AIDS.

He went on television this past Sunday night to proclaim that he ”…prevailed to cure HIV/AIDS to the point that 68 are being discharged today”, whatever his definition of discharge means.

This “President” is a dangerous man. He came to power as part of a bloodless coup, and has retained an iron grip on his office ever since via elections, described as ranging from having “serious shortcomings” to being deemed “not fair or free”.

Aside from his despotic rise, he fancies himself a medicine man - so his declarations of being able to cure HIV and AIDS using herbs is not new (he’s been boasting this since 2007). Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of this tyrant’s “medical advice” is that he is convincing (i.e. intimidating) infected people to stop taking their antiretroviral drugs.

He has hob-nobed with the likes of The President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -not surprising since the government of Iran has also declared “drug-free” cures for HIV and AIDS (birds of a feather?) - and they have both boasted of a deepening cooperation between their regimes. Fortunately, they have since parted ways since those crazy 2007 days (the only silver lining in this whole post.)

There is no ambiguity on where he stands on homosexuality. He has threatened to cut off the heads of any homosexual he finds in his country. He has all the humanitarianism of a school of piranha.

Still not convinced of the quality of this person? Well then, take a second and absorb this quote from Gambia’s president:

”If you don’t believe in God, you can never be grateful to humanity and you are even below a pig.”

Folks, this person can’t disappear from the earth fast enough. In the meantime, the natural disaster and living nightmare that is the reign of Yahya Jammeh continues, to the collective detriment of the world, and most immediately, the HIV infected citizens of Gambia.

A Grief Reminder

Evan Bernstein — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 11:42:51 +0000

My friend Mark sent an article my way today via Facebook. Courtesy of The Hartford Courant (the oldest continually running newspaper in America, for the moment), their ‘Business’ section of the website reports that a local engineer is manufacturing “hand held devices” for “effects associated with paranormal.” That is the “business” side of the story.

The other side of the report is that the engineer was inspired to create these devices due to the death of his 17-year old daughter back in 2004. Since that time, he has seen and heard things which he can only interpret as the spirit of his daughter trying to communicate with family members.

Mark’s first thought about the matter was that of sadness. Mark’s second thought suggested the notion is preposterous. I agree with Mark and his assessment of the priority of these two very different aspects of the article.

George Hrab just gave a fantastic talk at NECSS this past weekend about the subject of the loss of loved ones, and the grief and pain associated with such losses. The Courant article is quite timely in this regard, as I try to borrow George’s wisdom and add those pearls to my own set of thoughts on the matter. One of George’s many points was that people have a tendency not to talk about death and all of its unappealing aspects, arguably the worst of which is the sense of pain felt by the bereaved. We are very clumsy and socially unrehearsed when put in the position of having to interact with people in such a state of mind.

I was able to summarize, if not reinforce the thoughts I had before George’s talk, that there are no easy answers to questions concerning the complexities of the human psyche. This may seem a rather obvious thought upon reading, but we have to continually remind ourselves that humans have a tendency to seek out the easiest of answers from a given set of possibilities. This seems especially true when our emotions are in compromised states. I liken this to our pattern seeking tendencies - where the human brain has a disposition to make order out of, what is otherwise, chaos. We want to find reasons for things which may, in reality, have no reasons at all.

With this in mind, I don’t think we need to analyze why the father is interpreting the sound of a ringing doorbell, or the sight of the television changing channels as something paranormal. In my book, he gets a pass, and should not be the object of criticism or ridicule.

The second, and less important, aspect of the story is the engineering, and hence, the apparent “business” side of the story. Although I could go off on a rant about how The Courant did a poor job of reporting and categorizing this story, I will hold off on that for perhaps another day when I talk about the “rag” status of this newspaper.

Strictly from an engineering position, or more simply a general scientific position, I would like to see the test results for these devices. There is no mention in the article about how it has been proven that any of his devices work. There is no information concerning the mechanisms at action in such devices. It is taken for granted that ghost-detecting devices actually work at detecting anything other than mundane phenomena.

The story was also covered on television this past weekend as an episode of ‘Ghost Adventurers’, which airs on The Travel Channel. One of the quotes in the article from the host of the tv show reads:

“Gary is a very, very talented electrical engineer and he’s helped companies, massive companies, in that aspect in order to do things better.”

This is an argument from authority logical fallacy. Gary might be a talented electrical engineer, but this is not a way of proving that the technology actually works. What really matters are tests, results, unbiased data, and replication. Then we can start to have a serious conversation about the technology being accepted as genuine by the likes of the business section of The Hartford Courant.

Did the writer not think to reach out to organizations skeptical of these claims for an alternate point of view?

Perhaps he did, yet this being a rather uncomfortable subject to try and tackle (especially from a business standpoint), perhaps he made a decision, either consciously or subconsciously, to avoid one of the stickier facets of the story. Lets face it, its hard to ask tough questions – questions that contradict the claims of the claimant, even for the sake of playing devil’s advocate - of a person so grieved.

And this goes back to one of George’s points again: people are generally poor and clumsy communicators when it comes to the things they say to other people when the subject pertains to the death of loved ones.

I could go off further and on different tangents regarding this story, but I’m cutting myself short to help preserve the main point I am trying to drive home, which is this …

Good skeptics work hard at trying to understand the world around us, and in that search for a more complete comprehension of the cosmos, we remain mindful of human nature, inclusive of human culture, and understanding of human imperfections.

Word Magnets for Skeptics from SGU!

Rebecca Watson — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 14:30:49 +0000

We’ve had a few new additions to Skeptical Robot, our merch shop, and my absolute favorite is this sweet set of more than 200 Word Magnets for Skeptics. You can make tons of classic skeptical phrases and even create your own freeform poems on topics like homeopathy, evolution, vaccination, Bigfoot, aliens, and nano-robots. And since the set comes courtesy of The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe, there are even a few in-jokes you can make (plus the names of all the co-hosts)! Here are a few options:

the plural of anecdote is not evidence

science or fiction

nano robots abducted Bob

bird vs monkey

to make an apple pie from scratch you must first invent the universe

Steve debunked homeopathy

And so many more!

[EDIT: SGU is even having a contest: buy a set, create your best skeptical poem, take a photo of it, and send it to info@theskepticsguide.org. The best poems will be read on air, and the one we deem the awesomest will get a free SGU t-shirt!]

Of course, while you’re in the shop you should also pick up the new Chibi PZ Tee (say it three times fast), the tentacle-themed Pharyngula travel mug, and, naturally, a sweet Skepchick logo tee. Look, just buy all the things. ALL THE THINGS

O! Say Can You See …

Evan Bernstein — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 13:32:20 +0000

We have not one, but TWO delicious examples of pareidolia in the news this week. Pareidolia is the phenomena of seeing patterns in objects, such as a face in the clouds. The human mind has a natural disposition to try and make order out of chaos, and faces are the most common pattern discerned out of randomness. This is because some of the very first images burned in to our brains as infants are that of faces, primarily a mother’s face, for obvious reasons.

Today, we have a chicken nugget purported to look like the famous profile of George Washington. Have a look at this picture of the nugget along side the US quarter dollar. The only truly amazing thing about this nugget is that it fetched $8100 at auction on eBay! Jesus!

Speaking of which, the other image is that of Jesus on a tortilla (again). This is a more readily reported sighting – the face of Jesus “appears” (note the quotation marks) on all sorts of objects – glass windows, oil stains in parking lots, in the knots and stumps of trees, on all sorts of food items, and so on. Is it any co-incidence that the most “popular” (there are those quotation marks again) person in history (Jesus Christ) “appears” so frequently in all kinds of objects all over the world? So far, there are no reports of the tortilla being auctioned.

But in the case of the chicken nugget, the nugget’s owner, Rebekah Speight, to her credit, raised the money on eBay for charity. Good for her!

To Rebekah Speight’s discredit, she’s giving the money to children so they can attend a summer church camp where they will probably learn to be more inclined to see the face of Jesus in tortillas, wallpaper prints, and fecal matter. The irony is bitter.

I would have much rather seen her donate the money for kids to go on a summer trip to Washington DC so they could learn more about the importance of historical figures in US history, such as George Washington.

February 29

Evan Bernstein — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 18:06:43 +0000

The calendar is one of the most amazing creations of humankind. Including its most obvious of utilities (keeping track of our days and seasons) the calendar is a validation of scientific principles, such as the correct application of the process of predictability – which is to say, a good scientific theory will make certain predictions as a means of testing its validity. So by most measures, the accuracy of The Gregorian Calendar is a pretty damn good system. One big reason why the calendar works as well as it does is because of the concept of Leap Day and Leap Years.

Unless you are still using an abacus instead of a computer, then you know that February 29 is the Leap Day of The Gregorian Calendar. Since this irregular day will be upon us shortly, I thought I’d consolidate some interesting tidbits about February 29.

So I did, and in no particular order, here are the tidbits that caught my attention:

- We have it burned in our brains that Leap Day occurs every four years. This is mostly true, however there is an exception: there is no Leap Day on years ending in ’00, with the exception of ’00 years divisible by 400 (such as the year 2000.)

- There are efforts occurring in US universities where researchers are trying to come up with alternative calendars to ultimately replace The Gregorian Calendar, thereby eliminating the need for Leap Day and Leap Years. Here is the recent SciAm article about this very subject.

- In the early 1700′s in Sweden, they had their own calendar for about a dozen years, and their Leap Years also included February 30!

- February 29 is also known (in some circles) as Saint Oswald Day. And so it is said … in the year of our Lord 992, “On Leap Year Day, February 29, he died after kissing the feet of the 12th man and giving a blessing.” (May The Lords and Saints Preserve Us!)

- Superstitious Grecians (people from Greece) consider Leap Year an unlucky year to get married, and don’t even think about getting married on February 29th in Greece!

- Legend has it that Christopher Columbus took advantage of a lunar eclipse on February 29 in 1504 to get himself out of a perilous situation.

- It is reported that Leap Day has tripped up Google. Their ‘Blogger’ program will not allow existing users born on February 29 to update their profiles, an annoyance to leapers (people born on February 29) who use social media. The company plans to fix the glitch, but we shall see!

- Here is a stupid astrology thing about people born on February 29. I know ‘stupid astrology’ is redundant, but I’m taking liberties today.

And finally … on more of a personal note …

- On February 29 in 1980, Gordie Howe of The Hartford Whalers scored his record-setting 800th career goal. I mention this because I am forever a Whaler’s fan, even though the team is 15 years gone.

Happy February 29th everyone! Lets do this again in about 4 years!

Doctors Drop Unvaccinated Patients

Mike Lacelle — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 16:32:27 +0000

The decision to vaccinate a child shouldn’t really be a hard one to make. In fact, I don’t really think it should be a decision at all. Vaccines have been proven time and time again to be both very safe and extremely effective. And yet some people still choose not to have their children vaccinated. Personally, I think that’s a very bad decision.

There is SO MUCH bad information out there regarding vaccines, it’s very disheartening. Of course there’s good information, but the bad info is much easier to find. And it’s presented in a way that appeals to that person’s very basic instinct: to shield their child from possible harm. So as I think about it, it seems to me that most (if not all) of these people are doing it for what for them seems like a good reason

The problem is that they not only compromise their child’s health based on faulty information, but they contribute to a loss in herd immunity. This leads to the cases we hear in the news about vaccine preventable diseases affecting communities with low vaccine compliance. These cases are almost entirely avoidable.

Doctors have always taken the matter seriously, but recently, many pediatricians have been parting ways with patients of theirs who refuse to vaccinate. A story in The Wall Street Journal earlier this week reported on a rise in doctors refusing or “firing” patients who do not comply to the CDC and AAAP’s vaccine schedule.

In a study of Connecticut pediatricians published last year, some 30% of 133 doctors said they had asked a family to leave their practice for vaccine refusal, and a recent survey of 909 Midwestern pediatricians found that 21% reported discharging families for the same reason. By comparison, in 2001 and 2006 about 6% of physicians said they “routinely” stopped working with families due to parents’ continued vaccine refusal and 16% “sometimes” dismissed them, according to surveys conducted then by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

I completely agree with the pediatricians’ decision not to see unvaccinated children. Having an unvaccinated child in a doctor’s waiting room full of other children, some sick, is downright dangerous. Both for the unvaccinated child and the other people present.

There’s also an issue of trust. If parents don’t trust their doctor’s medical advice on one subject, why would they trust them on another? There should be a high level of trust there between doctor and patient.

When and if I have children, this will absolutely be one of the factors in choosing a pediatrician. I want to be able to trust that my child’s health is in good hands, and what better hands than someone’s who is willing to give up a select group of patients for the safety of the majority of her or his other patients? I’ll be looking for a doctor who practices science-based medicine.

So what do you guys think? Do you agree with the decision these doctors are making? There is certainly an argument to be made for both sides.

photo by: UNICEF Sverige

SGU Bloopers – Together they form Voltron!

Mike Lacelle — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 12:57:00 +0000

I’ve been working with the rogues behind the scenes for a few years now, and one of my tasks has (had) been to convert the raw audio tracks into SGU 5×5 episodes. During that time I took it upon myself to grab out some funny behind the scenes clips that never made it to the final podcast.

Here’s a clip that happened during a recording of 5×5 in December of 2009.

For those of you who are wondering, 5×5 isn’t gone. It’s actually going to make a comeback very, very soon. So stay tuned. I will be doing the edits so I’ll be posting some more clips on here as they come in.